Diamondbacks at Cardinals
O/U 7.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Diamondbacks ML -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 10-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Late-afternoon baseball at Busch Stadium, with Arizona and St. Louis separated by half a game and meeting for the seventh time this season. The price makes this close to a coin flip, but my money lands on the Diamondbacks moneyline at -104.
Arizona’s current offensive form is the first separator. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their past ten while averaging 6.6 runs per game; the Cardinals are 4-6 while averaging 3.2. Their season-long production is nearly identical—Arizona averages 4.5 runs against St. Louis at 4.4—so I’m not claiming a massive overall talent gap. I’m backing the lineup producing better contact now. Arizona’s three-game .450 xwOBA, 11.6% barrel rate and 24.6% whiff rate all compare favorably with St. Louis at .365, 6.7% and 34.2%.
Michael McGreevy’s 2.92 ERA and his 6.1 innings of one-run baseball against Arizona last week are the strongest arguments for St. Louis. The concern is his 5.35 xERA, especially opposite Brandon Pfaadt’s 4.22 xERA. Pfaadt’s .864 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters is a legitimate danger against five left-handed Cardinals starters, but he held this lineup to two earned runs over 5.1 innings six days ago. Behind him, Arizona’s closer did not pitch Wednesday, while the St. Louis closer threw 26 pitches Wednesday after also throwing 21 on July 20. Arizona also holds the cleaner fielding line, with a .990 fielding percentage and 37 errors versus St. Louis at .988 with 46. Four of the first six meetings were decided by one run, so I want no part of Arizona -1.5. The moneyline matches the read: a tight game, with Arizona’s current offense and late-game setup supplying the difference.
Injuries noted
Cardinals: [KNOWN] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbow) returned to St. Louis to undergo an examination on his left elbow, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jun 12 — 40d ago) [NEW] Max Rajcic (RP) — Elbow (Right): Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction. (Jul 23 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] JoJo Romero (RP) — Abdomen: The Cardinals do not expect Romero (appendicitis) to be ready for activation from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (Jul 19 — 4d ago) [NEW] Pedro Pages (C) — Illness (Not Specified): Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol indicated Pages will see a downturn in playing time following the promotion of Jimmy Crooks, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jul 22 — 0d ago) Diamondbacks: [KNOWN] Michael Soroka (SP) — Lower Body (Left): Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Soroka (glute) is in line to return from the injured list sometime around early August, Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic reports. (Jul 17 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ryne Nelson (SP) — Elbow (Right): Nelson (elbow) will begin a throwing program Saturday or Sunday, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports. (Jul 18 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Jordan Lawlar (LF) — Hamstring (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Saturday that Lawlar (hamstring) has been cleared for all baseball activities other than full-speed running, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports. (Jul 18 — 5d ago) [NEW] Zac Gallen (SP) — Elbow (Right): Gallen (elbow) met with Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles for a recommended course of action and was scheduled to be back in Arizona on Tuesday to resume his rehab, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM reports. (Jul 21 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Tommy Troy (LF) — Shoulder (Right): Manager Torey Lovullo said Friday that Troy (shoulder) is expected to remain out for roughly 3-to-4 weeks, Jack Sommers of SI.com reports. (Jul 17 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (LF) — Thigh (Right): Gurriel isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against St. Louis. (Jul 18 — 5d ago) [NEW] Drey Jameson (RP) — Hip: The Diamondbacks recalled Jameson from Triple-A Reno on Saturday. (Jul 21 — 1d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Brandon Pfaadt: 2.30 ERA over his last 3 starts
2.30Across his last 3 starts (15.7 IP) he has a 2.30 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP (1.31 season) and 11 strikeouts — his season mark is 4.58, and that is where most lines still price him.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
.940Over 262 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .940 OPS versus .501 in 121 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brandon Pfaadt tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
Tim Tawa (bats R) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
.771Tim Tawa's vs. Right line (.771 OPS, 79 AB) sits well above his .411 mark the other way (27 AB). Tonight's starter Michael McGreevy throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECK
Tim Tawa: 1.000 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.000The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.000 OPS versus .678 for the season, 0.322 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
Gabriel Moreno: .982 OPS in Last 15 Days
.982Over the last 15 days (41 PA) he is at a .982 OPS, up 0.149 on his .833 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFF
Ketel Marte: .497 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
.497Ketel Marte's .497 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .773 season mark, down 0.276. Tonight he draws RHP Michael McGreevy — his weaker side: a .707 OPS vs RHP across 290 AB.
Nathan Church: .148 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt
.148Nathan Church's .148 OPS over the last 15 days (27 PA) trails his .636 season mark, down 0.488. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt — his weaker side: a .629 OPS vs RHP across 198 AB.
Corbin Carroll: .651 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
.651Corbin Carroll's .651 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.183. Tonight he draws RHP Michael McGreevy — his weaker side: a .749 OPS vs RHP across 251 AB.
BULLPEN
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
13.3 IPArizona Diamondbacks's bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
BALLPARK
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 1.89 ERA
1.89Michael McGreevy at Busch Stadium: 1.89 ERA over 52.3 innings (9G) — 3.88 on a 55.7-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .221 off him here.
REPLACEMENT
Max Kepler (.661 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
.692Max Kepler draws RHP Michael McGreevy from the 5th spot. He carries a .661 OPS vs RHP (46 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .692 season line. On the injury report for 5 days (Hamstring).
Jose Fermin (.639 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
.706Jose Fermin draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt from the 6th spot. He carries a .639 OPS vs RHP (84 AB) — a tough platoon spot relative to his .706 season line. On the injury report for 41 days (Elbow).
SITUATIONAL
ARI's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
13.33 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Kevin Ginkel (2) and Jonathan Loaisiga (2) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
TEAM RECORD
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
6-2Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Michael McGreevy: 2.92 ERA vs 5.35 xERA
5.35Michael McGreevy carries a 2.92 ERA against a 5.35 expected ERA (2.43 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .236 off him vs a .285 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Gabriel Moreno
.833 OPSPickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.35 xERA) — .833 OPS, bats 4th.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 23, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Alec Burleson bats 3rd for the Cardinals, guaranteeing a strong volume floor of 4+ plate appearances. He draws an optimal matchup against Brandon Pfaadt, who exhibits a severe split against left-handed hitters (.298 AVG, .864 OPS allowed).
Burleson's season xSLG of .537 and recent .375 batting average over his last 7 games indicate he is driving the ball with authority, having cleared 1.5 total bases in 3 of his past 5 starts. At +110 odds (requiring a 47.6% break-even rate), Burleson over 1.5 total bases offers strong value.
The risk is soft contact groundouts against Pfaadt's sinker or facing Arizona's left-handed relievers late in the game.
- GARY'S PICKGABRIEL MORENOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Gabriel Moreno bats 4th in a Diamondbacks lineup that has scored 7.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests. Moreno is locked in, batting .366 over his last 15 games (.982 OPS) and .318 over his last 7 games (.944 OPS).
He faces Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, whose 2.92 ERA masks a 5.35 xERA, a .352 opp xwOBA, and a 41.3% hard-hit rate allowed. Moreno's placement behind Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Geraldo Perdomo provides rich RBI and run-scoring opportunities.
At -118 odds (54.1% break-even threshold), Moreno clearing 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs is well-supported by his form and the matchup. The risk is McGreevy using his 90.5 mph sinker to induce ground ball double plays.
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