Reds at Cardinals
O/U 8 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium
St. Louis Cardinals ML-152
CONF 64%
LLostFinal 4-2
The read
Friday night’s opener starts with the pitchers. I trust Dustin May more than Rhett Lowder, especially with May at home and Lowder struggling badly on the road. Both were hit hard in their latest outings, but May’s overall body of work gives St. Louis the steadier base.
The matchup also favors the Cardinals’ lineup. Lowder has had major trouble with left-handed hitters, and St. Louis is loading up with left-handed bats. Alec Burleson has been scorching hot and has handled right-handed pitching very well. May has been much tougher on right-handed hitters, which makes Cincinnati’s path more difficult. St. Louis has also controlled the season series, backing up what I already see in the pitching matchup.
Cincinnati has played better lately and comes in rested, so I’m not asking St. Louis to win by multiple runs. But I trust the Cardinals more to protect a late lead, with Riley O’Brien pitching better than Emilio Pagán, and St. Louis has also been the cleaner defensive team. The price is steep, but the better starter, favorable lineup matchup, and more reliable late-game options make the choice clear. I’m backing St. Louis to win.
The full analysis
Friday night at Busch Stadium brings a divisional opener between a Cincinnati club coming off consecutive wins and a St. Louis side trying to steady itself at home. The decision starts with the gap between Dustin May and Rhett Lowder. May has a 3.91 xERA and a 3.65 home ERA, while Lowder carries a 5.64 xERA and an 8.27 road ERA. Both were hit in their latest starts, but May’s complete 2026 profile gives St. Louis the more trustworthy foundation.
The lineup construction reinforces that advantage. Lowder has allowed an .880 OPS to left-handed hitters, and the Cardinals are starting five left-handed bats. Alec Burleson is batting .414 over the last seven days and owns a .955 OPS against right-handed pitching. May has allowed a .782 OPS to lefties but only a .582 OPS to righties, giving Cincinnati a narrower path through the right-handed portions of its order. St. Louis has also won four of five meetings this season while outscoring Cincinnati 35-19. That history guarantees nothing, but it supports what the current pitching matchup already says.
The Reds have the better immediate form, going 3-2 over their last five while the Cardinals went 1-4, and Cincinnati had Thursday off. That keeps me away from demanding a run-line cover. For the outright result, however, St. Louis owns the stronger late-game structure. Riley O’Brien has 26 saves with a 3.67 ERA, while Cincinnati’s Emilio Pagán has a 5.59 ERA. The Cardinals also hold the better defensive marks, with a .988 fielding percentage and 46 errors compared with Cincinnati’s .985 and 53. The juice is real, but the moneyline fits the read: better starter indicators, the favorable platoon configuration and the more reliable closing options. I’m backing St. Louis to win the game.
Injuries noted
Cardinals: [NEW] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbows) has been sent to Triple-A Memphis and will begin a rehab assignment Saturday, Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (Jul 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Max Rajcic (RP) — Elbow (Right): Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction. (Jul 23 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] JoJo Romero (RP) — Abdomen: The Cardinals do not expect Romero (appendicitis) to be ready for activation from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (Jul 19 — 5d ago) [NEW] Pedro Pages (C) — Illness (Not Specified): Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol indicated Pages will see a downturn in playing time following the promotion of Jimmy Crooks, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports. (Jul 22 — 2d ago) Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 6d ago) [NEW] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters Wednesday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago) [NEW] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) could soon begin a rehab assignment serving exclusively as a designated hitter while he continues to go through a throwing progression, MLB.com reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Santillan (oblique) received a PRP injection July 9 and is undergoing further treatment, MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 6d ago) [NEW] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): McLain (calf) will begin a rehab assignment Friday at Triple-A Louisville, MLB.com reports. (Jul 22 — 2d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (blister) will attempt to throw a bullpen Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago)
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored July 24, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET.
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- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betmgm, draftkings, betrivers.
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Props on this game
1Elly De La CruzOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
LActual 1
Elly De La Cruz is swinging a red-hot bat, hitting .304 with 2 HRs and a 1.060 OPS over his last 7 days (.293 with 3 HRs in L10). He faces Dustin May, who has struggled severely over his last 5 starts (9.92 ERA in 16.1 IP) and allows a .782 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to .582 vs righties. As Cincinnati's leadoff hitter, De La Cruz will get maximum opportunities to punish May's elevated walk and hit counts.
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