Cubs at Pirates
O/U 6.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -120
- Published odds
- -120
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 11-0
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Saturday night at PNC Park features Shota Imanaga against Paul Skenes, with Chicago looking to take the series. For me, the bet comes down to whether Skenes gives Pittsburgh enough of a pitching edge at home. I believe he does.
Skenes has been better overall, especially at home and at night, while Imanaga has been less effective on the road and in night games. Both are pitching well lately. Imanaga has also been excellent against Pittsburgh, but the Pirates now have Esmerlyn Valdez, who has crushed left-handed pitching and shown big home-run power. In a ballpark that tends to limit scoring, I trust Skenes’ stronger overall outlook.
Pittsburgh’s relief pitching is the concern. The Pirates have struggled to protect leads, and their relievers worked much harder than Chicago’s on Friday. The Cubs have also scored more lately, though Pittsburgh has been slightly better offensively across the full season. That is why I do not want the more expensive option of getting an extra run with Pittsburgh. I think Skenes gets the Pirates over the line, so my pick is Pittsburgh to win.
The full analysis
Saturday night at PNC Park brings a marquee pitching duel, with Shota Imanaga facing Paul Skenes as Chicago tries to secure the series. Under the lights, this wager comes down to whether Skenes’ starting-pitcher advantage is worth the modest home price.
For me, it is. Skenes owns a 3.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 2.75 xERA, compared with Imanaga’s 3.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 3.74 xERA. The setting strengthens that edge: Skenes has a 3.04 home ERA and 2.61 night ERA, while Imanaga has a 3.68 road ERA and 4.21 night ERA. Both starters enter in good form—Skenes just delivered seven innings of one-run ball, while Imanaga threw seven scoreless. I respect Imanaga’s .118 batting average allowed across five games against Pittsburgh, but this Pirates lineup now includes Esmerlyn Valdez, who has a 1.405 OPS and seven home runs against left-handed pitching. With PNC Park’s 0.94 run factor, I trust the starter carrying the stronger expected profile.
The bullpen is the danger in this ticket, and I’m not hiding it. Pittsburgh has 18 blown saves, and its four relievers combined for 75 pitches Friday; Chicago used three relievers for 27. The Cubs have also averaged 6.2 runs over their last five games against Pittsburgh’s 3.8, although the season-long offensive comparison favors the Pirates slightly: a .260 average, .760 OPS and 5.2 runs per game versus Chicago’s .244, .748 and 5.1. That tension is why I’m not paying -205 for Pittsburgh’s +1.5. My read says the superior starter gets Pittsburgh across the finish line, so I want the cleaner price and the outright result: Pirates moneyline.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [KNOWN] Oneil Cruz (CF) — Hand (Left): The Pirates transferred Cruz (hand) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was sent to the rookie-level Florida Complex League on Tuesday to begin a rehab assignment. (Jul 21 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Spencer Horwitz (1B) — Hamstring (Left): Horwitz (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton on Tuesday, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Evan Sisk (RP) — Elbow (Left): Sisk was placed on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (Jul 4 — 21d ago) [NEW] Endy Rodriguez (C) — Lower Body (Left): Rodriguez (glute) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Indianapolis on Friday, Aiden Stepansky of MLB.com reports. (Jul 24 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Konnor Griffin (SS) — Finger (Left): The Pirates transferred Griffin (finger) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Alex Stumpf of MLB.com reports. (Jul 11 — 14d ago) [NEW] Rafael Flores Jr. (C) — Concussion: The Pirates placed Flores on the 7-day concussion injured list Friday. (Jul 24 — 1d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 78d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 78d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Hand (Left): Shaw is still feeling discomfort related to his left hand sprain and has yet to resume swinging a bat, Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. (Jul 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (RP) — Elbow (Right): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Palencia (elbow) is hopeful to return to the Cubs' bullpen in mid-August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Hoby Milner (RP) — Abdomen (Not Specified): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Milner (abdomen) will likely return from the injured list sometime around Aug. 1, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Brown (RP) — Neck (Not Specified): Cubs manager Craig Counsell said Friday that Brown (neck) has begun to increase his activity and has taken part in workouts with plyometric balls, MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Hamstring (Left): Manager Craig Counsell said Friday that the Cubs expect Cabrera (hamstring) to return from the injured list in the second week of August, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com reports. (Jul 17 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): The Cubs announced June 10 that Martin (elbow) has resumed playing catch, MLB.com reports. (Jun 21 — 33d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Manager Craig Counsell said July 8 that Harvey (triceps/shoulder) has resumed a throwing program at the Cubs' facility in Arizona, but the right-hander remains without a clear timeline for a return from the 60-day injured list, MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (RP) — Forearm (Right): Roberts (forearm) tossed a perfect inning in a rehab appearance Sunday with Triple-A Iowa. (Jul 20 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Phil Maton (RP) — Knee (Right): The Cubs placed Maton on the 15-day injured list Monday with right knee tendinitis, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Trent Thornton (RP) — Heel (Left): Thornton was removed from Monday's game against the Tigers after being struck on the left foot by a comebacker, Mike McGraw of the Chicago Daily Herald reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Shota Imanaga: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.62He has allowed 3 earned runs over his last 16.7 innings (1.62 ERA) with a 1.32 WHIP (1.11 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.91 season line says.
BATTER VS ARM
Michael Busch vs Paul Skenes: .286
.286In 14 career at-bats against Paul Skenes, Michael Busch is 4-for-14 for a 1.087 OPS (4 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters hot (.845 OPS, L15).
Nico Hoerner vs Paul Skenes: .333
.333Nico Hoerner has gone 4-for-12 (.333) across 12 career at-bats off Paul Skenes, with 1 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.619 OPS, L15).
PLATOON EDGE
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.405Esmerlyn Valdez's vs. Left line (1.405 OPS, 42 AB) sits well above his .871 mark the other way (75 AB). Tonight's starter Shota Imanaga throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFF
Ryan O'Hearn: .499 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
.499Ryan O'Hearn's .499 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .801 season mark, down 0.302. Tonight he draws LHP Shota Imanaga — his weaker side: a .652 OPS vs LHP across 104 AB.
FIRST INNING
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10Pittsburgh Pirates have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.
REGRESSION
Esmerlyn Valdez: .282 AVG vs .220 xBA
.220Esmerlyn Valdez's .282 average comes against a .220 expected (xBA) on 135 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .440 against a .363 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
Nico Hoerner: .244 AVG vs .291 xBA
.291Nico Hoerner is hitting .244 against a .291 expected average (xBA) over 451 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .290 against a .321 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Shota Imanaga
3.74 xERAStreamer vs PIT — 3.74 xERA · 8.5 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP.
About this analysis
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- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 25, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
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