MLB · Sat, Jul 25 · 7:15 PM

Reds at Cardinals

O/U 8 · RL Cardinals -1.5 · Busch Stadium

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -104

Saturday night baseball settles into Busch Stadium, with the Reds carrying a three-game winning streak and the Cardinals trying to stop a two-game slide. The board calls this close to even, and I’m taking Cincinnati to win outright at -104. Hunter Greene’s 6.06 ERA is loud, but the details make him more attractive than that headline number. His xERA is 4.39, and he has recorded 26 strikeouts in 16.1 innings across three starts. The eight-earned-run outing against Baltimore accounts for most of the damage; his other two starts were seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and six innings with three earned runs and seven strikeouts. Greene has also held left-handed hitters to a .211 average and .628 OPS, which matters against a Cardinals lineup starting five left-handed batters. Andre Pallante has the steadier overall résumé with a 4.02 ERA and 3.71 xERA, but left-handed hitters have produced a .273 average and .743 OPS against him. Cincinnati can bring four batters to the left side when its two switch hitters are included. The immediate form points the same way. Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 and has averaged 4.4 runs over its last five, while St. Louis is 3-7 and has averaged 2.4. Eugenio Suárez has five home runs and a 1.098 OPS over the last 15 days, while Tyler Stephenson owns a 1.097 OPS over that span. Cincinnati’s bullpen then supplied four scoreless innings in Friday’s victory, compared with three earned runs allowed by the St. Louis bullpen. I respect Pallante’s steadier season and the Cardinals’ superior defense, so I’m not asking Cincinnati to cover -1.5. The moneyline fits the read: back Greene’s strikeout form and the hotter lineup, and require only an outright Reds win.

The pick & result

Published pick: Cincinnati Reds ML -104
Published odds: -104
Result: Lost
Final score: 0-7

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Saturday night at Busch Stadium, the Reds come in on a winning streak while the Cardinals are trying to end a short skid. This looks like a toss-up, and I’m taking Cincinnati to win.

Hunter Greene’s overall results look rough, but he has pitched better than they suggest and is piling up strikeouts. One ugly start against Baltimore caused most of the damage; he was dominant in one of his other outings and solid in the other. He has also handled left-handed hitters well, which matters against a Cardinals lineup loaded with them. Andre Pallante has been steadier overall, but left-handed hitters have had more success against him, and Cincinnati can stack that side of the plate with help from its switch hitters.

Cincinnati has also been playing better lately and scoring far more often than St. Louis. Eugenio Suárez and Tyler Stephenson have both been on fire, and the Reds bullpen shut the Cardinals down to finish Friday’s win while the St. Louis bullpen gave up runs. I respect Pallante’s steadier season and the Cardinals’ better defense, so I only need the Reds to win, not win big. I’m backing Greene’s strikeout form and the hotter Cincinnati lineup.

The full analysis

Hunter Greene’s 6.06 ERA is loud, but the details make him more attractive than that headline number. His xERA is 4.39, and he has recorded 26 strikeouts in 16.1 innings across three starts. The eight-earned-run outing against Baltimore accounts for most of the damage; his other two starts were seven scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and six innings with three earned runs and seven strikeouts. Greene has also held left-handed hitters to a .211 average and .628 OPS, which matters against a Cardinals lineup starting five left-handed batters. Andre Pallante has the steadier overall résumé with a 4.02 ERA and 3.71 xERA, but left-handed hitters have produced a .273 average and .743 OPS against him. Cincinnati can bring four batters to the left side when its two switch hitters are included.

The immediate form points the same way. Cincinnati is 6-4 over its last 10 and has averaged 4.4 runs over its last five, while St. Louis is 3-7 and has averaged 2.4. Eugenio Suárez has five home runs and a 1.098 OPS over the last 15 days, while Tyler Stephenson owns a 1.097 OPS over that span. Cincinnati’s bullpen then supplied four scoreless innings in Friday’s victory, compared with three earned runs allowed by the St. Louis bullpen. I respect Pallante’s steadier season and the Cardinals’ superior defense, so I’m not asking Cincinnati to cover -1.5. The moneyline fits the read: back Greene’s strikeout form and the hotter lineup, and require only an outright Reds win.

Injuries noted

Cardinals: [NEW] Ramon Urias (3B) — Elbow (Right): Urias (elbows) has been sent to Triple-A Memphis and will begin a rehab assignment Saturday, Amber Winkler of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (Jul 23 — 1d ago) [NEW] Max Rajcic (RP) — Elbow (Right): Rajcic revealed on his Instagram account Thursday that he recently underwent a right elbow UCL reconstruction. (Jul 23 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] JoJo Romero (RP) — Abdomen: The Cardinals do not expect Romero (appendicitis) to be ready for activation from the 15-day injured list when first eligible, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. (Jul 19 — 6d ago) Reds: [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) is on a throwing program, which will have him throw from 105 feet beginning July 20 at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports. (Jul 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): Williamson (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters Wednesday, MLB.com reports. (Jul 21 — 4d ago) [NEW] Blake Dunn (CF) — Elbow (Right): Dunn (elbow) suffered a setback prior to being sent on a rehab assignment, MLB.com reports. (Jul 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Tony Santillan (RP) — Oblique (Left): Santillan (oblique) threw out to 75 feet Friday and experienced no discomfort, MLB.com reports. (Jul 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Matt McLain (2B) — Calf (Not Specified): McLain (calf) went 1-for-3 with a double, an RBI and a run scored for Triple-A Louisville on Friday. (Jul 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Nick Lodolo (SP) — Finger (Left): Lodolo (blister) will attempt to throw a bullpen Wednesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Hunter Greene (RHP)
.945
Over 269 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .945 OPS versus .493 in 123 AB the other way. He sees RHP Hunter Greene tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

Eugenio Suarez: 1.098 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.098
Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a 1.098 OPS, up 0.398 on his .700 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

COOLING OFF

Ivan Herrera: .348 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
.348
Ivan Herrera's .348 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .735 season mark, down 0.387. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Greene — his weaker side: a .705 OPS vs RHP across 269 AB.
Jordan Walker: .614 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
.614
Jordan Walker's .614 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .863 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Greene — his weaker side: a .835 OPS vs RHP across 291 AB.

RUNNING GAME

Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 0%
0% CS
Cincinnati Reds steal 0.7 bags a game (72 on the season) and Ivan Herrera has thrown out 0 of 26 runners (0%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.

BALLPARK

At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.99 ERA
4.99
Andre Pallante at Busch Stadium: 4.99 ERA over 61.3 innings (11G) — 2.66 on a 44-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .293 off him here.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 25, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ELLY DE LA CRUZSB OVER 0.5
MLBCincinnati Reds· +200
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Elly De La Cruz is one of the premier base-stealing threats in baseball with 18 stolen bases on the season, and he demonstrated that exact dynamic in Game 1 of this series yesterday by stealing 2 bases against St. Louis. De La Cruz enters in elite form, batting .317 (13-for-41) with a 1.038 OPS over his last 15 days. Batting leadoff against Andre Pallante, De La Cruz holds a strong platoon matchup against a starter who yields a .273 batting average and .743 OPS to left-handed batters (220 ABs). De La Cruz has also drawn 3 walks in 20 career head-to-head ABs against Pallante, providing multiple pathways to reach base. Once on base, Cincinnati gives De La Cruz an aggressive green light—he stole 2 bases yesterday alone. At +200 odds, the required break-even probability is only 33.3%, representing a distinct value edge given his high on-base expectation and elite running volume. Concrete risk: Pallante holds De La Cruz hitless and walkless across 4 plate appearances, or Pallante/Herrera control the running game cleanly to prevent any SB attempts.
Elly De La Cruz
SB over 0.5
+200 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz is one of the premier base-stealing threats in baseball with 18 stolen bases on the season, and he demonstrated that exact dynamic in Game 1 of this series yesterday by stealing 2 bases against St. Louis. De La Cruz enters in elite form, batting .317 (13-for-41) with a 1.038 OPS over his last 15 days.
Batting leadoff against Andre Pallante, De La Cruz holds a strong platoon matchup against a starter who yields a .273 batting average and .743 OPS to left-handed batters (220 ABs). De La Cruz has also drawn 3 walks in 20 career head-to-head ABs against Pallante, providing multiple pathways to reach base. Once on base, Cincinnati gives De La Cruz an aggressive green light—he stole 2 bases yesterday alone.
At +200 odds, the required break-even probability is only 33.3%, representing a distinct value edge given his high on-base expectation and elite running volume. Concrete risk: Pallante holds De La Cruz hitless and walkless across 4 plate appearances, or Pallante/Herrera control the running game cleanly to prevent any SB attempts.

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