Yankees at Phillies
O/U 7.5 · RL Phillies -1.5 · Citizens Bank Park
The pick & result
- Published pick
- New York Yankees ML -126
- Published odds
- -126
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 3-1
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Saturday night in Philadelphia, the Yankees are trying to lock up the series while the Phillies look to end their losing streak. I’m backing New York simply to win rather than asking them to win by multiple runs, because I expect another close game shaped by pitching depth and late execution.
Ryan Weathers has been shaky, so I’m not betting this out of blind confidence in him. The key is what happens after Tim Mayza’s short outing. Philadelphia will need most of the game from a pitching staff that lost Tanner Banks and made several moves that same day. New York’s relief pitchers are in better shape after Friday’s starter worked deep into the game and David Bednar was barely used. Jhoan Duran gives Philadelphia a strong late option, but getting a lead to him through the middle innings is the bigger challenge.
New York has also prevented runs more consistently overall and has played better lately, while Philadelphia has allowed more runs during its recent slide. The Phillies have made much better contact over the past few games, which is why I want the protection of picking the Yankees just to win. I’m willing to pay the reasonable favorite’s price for New York’s steadier pitching setup from start to finish.
The full analysis
Saturday night in Philadelphia, the Yankees look to secure the series while the Phillies try to stop a three-game slide. I’m backing New York on the moneyline rather than laying 1.5 runs because my read points toward another competitive game decided by pitching structure and late-inning execution.
Ryan Weathers carries real risk with a 4.40 ERA, 4.55 xERA and 5.58 night ERA, so this is not a bet built on blind confidence in the starter. The deciding issue is what happens after Tim Mayza exits. Mayza owns a 4.00 ERA and 3.48 xERA, but he has not exceeded two innings in an appearance this season. That leaves Philadelphia needing most of the game from a staff that lost Tanner Banks and made multiple same-day pitching moves. New York’s relief group is better positioned after its starter completed 7.1 innings Friday and David Bednar needed only nine pitches. Philadelphia has a strong late option in Jhoan Duran, but getting a lead to him through the middle innings is the harder part of this setup.
The larger run-prevention profile also favors New York. The Yankees have a 3.35 team ERA and 1.18 WHIP, compared with Philadelphia’s 4.23 and 1.31. Over the last 10 games, New York is 7-3 while allowing 2.9 runs per game; Philadelphia is 4-6 while allowing 4.2. The Phillies’ superior recent contact quality—.382 expected wOBA over the last three games against New York’s .299—is why I want the protection of the moneyline rather than the run line. At -126, I’ll pay the manageable favorite’s price for the Yankees’ steadier nine-inning pitching structure.
Injuries noted
Phillies: [KNOWN] Johan Rojas (Center Fielder) — Elbow (Right): Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 25 — 30d ago) [KNOWN] Adolis Garcia (RF) — Lat (Right): The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jun 24 — 31d ago) [KNOWN] Lou Trivino (RP) — Back (Right): The Phillies selected Trivino's contract from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Tuesday. (Jul 8 — 16d ago) [NEW] Tanner Banks (RP) — Forearm (Left): The Phillies placed Banks on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a left forearm strain. (Jul 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Brad Keller (RP) — Elbow (Right): The Phillies moved Keller (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday. (Jul 24 — 1d ago) [NEW] Garrett Stubbs (C) — Wrist (Left): The Phillies placed Stubbs on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, retroactive to July 18, due to left wrist inflammation, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. (Jul 21 — 3d ago) [NEW] Rafael Marchan (C) — Knee (Left): The Phillies placed Marchan (knee) on the 10-day injured list Friday, retroactive to July 23. (Jul 24 — 1d ago) Yankees: [KNOWN] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday that Stanton has "no timeline" to start a minor-league rehab assignment, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports. (Jul 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Aaron Judge (RF) — Ribs (Right): Manager Aaron Boone said Saturday that a specialist determined that Judge (ribs) is not yet ready to resume baseball activities, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Jul 18 — 6d ago) [NEW] Carlos Rodon (SP) — Elbow (Left): Rodon (elbow) is expected to throw a two-up side session Saturday, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports. (Jul 24 — 0d ago)
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
1.082Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.082 OPS, 107 AB) sits well above his .593 mark the other way (152 AB). Tonight's starter Tim Mayza throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
HEAT CHECK
Trea Turner: 1.012 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.012Over the last 15 days (37 PA) he is at a 1.012 OPS, up 0.334 on his .678 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 4-1 vs Phillies this season
4-1Yankees lead the season series 4-1 over Phillies. NYY won the last meeting 1-0.
STREAK
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
U6New York Yankees games have stayed UNDER 6 straight — just 6.5 runs a night against an average line of 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
TEAM RECORD
Phillies 1-7 in Tim Mayza's last 8 starts
1-7Phillies are 1-7 in Tim Mayza's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 4 in a row. He starts tonight.
REGRESSION
Edmundo Sosa: .217 AVG vs .287 xBA
.287Edmundo Sosa's .217 average comes against a .287 expected (xBA) on 176 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .265 against a .335 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Tim Mayza
3.48 xERAStreamer vs NYY — 3.48 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 25, 2026 at 11:45 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKTREA TURNERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
- GARY'S PICKALEC BOHMTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
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