Reds at Cardinals
O/U 8.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5
Reds ML+113
CONF 59%
WCashedFinal 5-3
The read
Saturday’s blowout made the game look more one-sided than it really was. St. Louis had only a slim lead before pulling away late. I’m backing the underdog because I prefer its starting pitcher.
Andrew Abbott has the better underlying numbers and has handled several key Cardinals hitters well. Lars Nootbaar being scratched also removes a threat. Kyle Leahy has pitched well lately, but his overall performance suggests trouble: he gives up too much hard contact, and left-handed hitters have hurt him. That creates a good matchup for Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe. Cincinnati also kept its late-inning relievers fresh Saturday, while Gordon Graceffo had a heavy workload for St. Louis. In this heat, I’d rather trust Abbott and the more rested bullpen at an underdog price.
The full analysis
Saturday’s 7-0 score makes this look more one-sided than it was; St. Louis led only 1-0 before breaking it open in the sixth. I’m taking the plus money with the better starting-pitcher profile.
Andrew Abbott has the lower xERA and has held several key Cardinals hitters in check, while Lars Nootbaar’s scratch removes another threat. Kyle Leahy’s recent results are strong, but his 5.26 xERA, 50.3% hard-hit rate and .860 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters leave him vulnerable to Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe. Cincinnati also preserved its late-inning arms in Saturday’s loss, while Gordon Graceffo threw 38 pitches for St. Louis. In this heat, I’d rather back Abbott and the more rested bullpen at an underdog price.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Board stored July 26, 2026 at 10:46 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The displayed line is the value retained with the call. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1Elly De La CruzOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+113
WActual 5
Elly De La Cruz switch-hits and will bat from the left side today against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, directly targeting Leahy's primary defensive vulnerability. On the season, Leahy has allowed a .308 AVG and .860 OPS with 6 HR to left-handed batters across 185 ABs, alongside a 50.3% Hard-hit% allowed and a 10.7% Barrel%.
De La Cruz possesses elite power-speed traits, batting .276 with 17 HR, 46 RBI, and an .852 OPS (333 AB, 92 H) on the year. His .472 SLG is backed by a .490 xSLG, and he has maintained strong rolling form with a .308 AVG (12-for-39) and .926 OPS over his last 15 games.
Batting leadoff guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearance opportunities in 94°F weather at Busch Stadium, giving De La Cruz an excellent environment to log multiple bases via extra-base power or multiple hits.
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