Reds at Cardinals
O/U 8.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Reds ML +113
- Published odds
- +113
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 5-3
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Saturday’s blowout made the game look more one-sided than it really was. St. Louis had only a slim lead before pulling away late. I’m backing the underdog because I prefer its starting pitcher.
Andrew Abbott has the better underlying numbers and has handled several key Cardinals hitters well. Lars Nootbaar being scratched also removes a threat. Kyle Leahy has pitched well lately, but his overall performance suggests trouble: he gives up too much hard contact, and left-handed hitters have hurt him. That creates a good matchup for Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe. Cincinnati also kept its late-inning relievers fresh Saturday, while Gordon Graceffo had a heavy workload for St. Louis. In this heat, I’d rather trust Abbott and the more rested bullpen at an underdog price.
The full analysis
Saturday’s 7-0 score makes this look more one-sided than it was; St. Louis led only 1-0 before breaking it open in the sixth. I’m taking the plus money with the better starting-pitcher profile.
Andrew Abbott has the lower xERA and has held several key Cardinals hitters in check, while Lars Nootbaar’s scratch removes another threat. Kyle Leahy’s recent results are strong, but his 5.26 xERA, 50.3% hard-hit rate and .860 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters leave him vulnerable to Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday and Nathaniel Lowe. Cincinnati also preserved its late-inning arms in Saturday’s loss, while Gordon Graceffo threw 38 pitches for St. Louis. In this heat, I’d rather back Abbott and the more rested bullpen at an underdog price.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Kyle Leahy: 0.64 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.64He has allowed 1 earned runs over his last 14 innings (0.64 ERA) with a 0.64 WHIP (1.35 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.59 season line says.
BATTER VS ARM
Andrew Abbott vs Jordan Walker: 0-for-12, 6 K
0-for-12Jordan Walker has managed only 0-for-12 (.000) off Andrew Abbott, striking out 6 times in 12 career at-bats — they meet again tonight.
HEAT CHECK
Eugenio Suarez: 1.041 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.041Over the last 15 days (34 PA) he is at a 1.041 OPS, up 0.351 on his .690 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
COOLING OFF
Ivan Herrera: .372 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
.372Ivan Herrera's .372 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.368. Tonight he draws LHP Andrew Abbott — his stronger side: a .804 OPS vs LHP across 107 AB.
RUNNING GAME
Cincinnati Reds like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
33% CSCincinnati Reds attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 17 of 52 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
BALLPARK
At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 2.94 ERA
2.94Kyle Leahy at Busch Stadium: 2.94 ERA over 49 innings (10G) — 4.27 on a 46.3-inning baseline elsewhere. Hitters bat .249 off him here.
PARK WEATHER
94° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
94°FConditions at Busch Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 94°, wind 5 mph, Out To CF. Heat like this turns warning-track outs into souvenirs. The total sits at 8.5.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Cardinals are 5-2 vs Reds this season
5-2Cardinals lead the season series 5-2 over Reds. STL won the last meeting 7-0.
REGRESSION
Kyle Leahy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
5.23Kyle Leahy carries a 3.59 ERA against a 5.23 expected ERA (1.64 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .262 off him vs a .272 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
FANTASY PICKUPS
JJ Bleday
.821 OPSBleday is hitting in the three-hole with a strong 0.821 OPS and faces a vulnerable Kyle Leahy. Leahy’s 5.26 xERA shows he is susceptible to damage, and Bleday has the power numbers to capitalize on those mistakes. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
Nathaniel Lowe
.800 OPSLowe hits fifth and offers a steady 0.8 OPS against a struggling Kyle Leahy. With Leahy pitching to a 5.26 xERA, Lowe is in a good position to drive in runs and take advantage of a pitcher who is currently out of form. Deep-league dart only.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 26, 2026 at 10:46 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
1- GARY'S PICKELLY DE LA CRUZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Elly De La Cruz switch-hits and will bat from the left side today against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, directly targeting Leahy's primary defensive vulnerability. On the season, Leahy has allowed a .308 AVG and .860 OPS with 6 HR to left-handed batters across 185 ABs, alongside a 50.3% Hard-hit% allowed and a 10.7% Barrel%.
De La Cruz possesses elite power-speed traits, batting .276 with 17 HR, 46 RBI, and an .852 OPS (333 AB, 92 H) on the year. His .472 SLG is backed by a .490 xSLG, and he has maintained strong rolling form with a .308 AVG (12-for-39) and .926 OPS over his last 15 games.
Batting leadoff guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearance opportunities in 94°F weather at Busch Stadium, giving De La Cruz an excellent environment to log multiple bases via extra-base power or multiple hits.
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