Diamondbacks at Nationals
O/U 10 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5
Diamondbacks ML-114
CONF 57%
LLostFinal 7-10
The read
The trade deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this deciding game matters in the playoff race for both teams.
**My pick: Diamondbacks to win**
I’m backing Arizona at a small price because Miles Mikolas looks like the easiest pitcher to attack. Both his actual and expected results have been poor, he does not miss many bats, and hitters have done plenty of damage against his fastballs. That fits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, while Ketel Marte is especially dangerous against sinking fastballs.
Kohl Drake has only started once before, so I do not want to bet on Arizona winning by multiple runs. Still, the Diamondbacks have been the better pitching team over the full season, and Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald are rested. James Wood and the red-hot CJ Abrams can hurt Drake, but I trust Arizona’s pitching more over the entire game.
The full analysis
The deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this rubber game carries real wild-card weight for both sides.
I’m laying the small price because Miles Mikolas is the most attackable part of this matchup. His 5.60 ERA comes with a 5.08 xERA and only 51 strikeouts in 98 innings, while his four-seamer and sinker have both been hit hard. That suits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, with Ketel Marte particularly dangerous against sinkers. Kohl Drake is still an unknown in only his second start, so I want no part of the run line, but Arizona owns the better season-long pitching numbers and has Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald rested. Washington can damage Drake through James Wood and red-hot CJ Abrams, but I prefer Arizona’s full-game pitching path.
Props on this game
2CJ AbramsOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+115
WActual 9
CJ Abrams enters Sunday's matchup in phenomenal current form, having cleared 1.5 total bases in five consecutive games with total base marks of 7, 2, 5, 8, and 4. Over his last 7 games, Abrams is hitting .560 (14-for-25) with 5 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a massive 1.873 OPS, bringing his season slugging percentage to .557.
He faces rookie left-hander Kohl Drake, who surrendered a 46.2% Hard-Hit rate, a 15.4% barrel rate, and a 5.61 xERA in his initial outing. Batting out of the cleanup spot for a Nationals offense operating in warm 84°F weather at neutral Nationals Park, Abrams has high volume floor opportunities (4+ expected PAs).
The primary risk to this prop is a lefty-on-lefty suppression scenario where Drake pitches around Abrams or limits him to single base hits, but Abrams' barrel metrics and hit distribution far exceed the 46.5% break-even hurdle required at +115.
Gabriel MorenoOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+100
WActual 4
Gabriel Moreno has been the motor of Arizona's offense, batting .400 (16-for-40) with a 1.005 OPS over his last 15 games and .333 over his last 7 games. On the season, Moreno carries a .311 batting average and .380 xwOBA, performing at an elite level against right-handed pitching (.320 AVG, .853 OPS in 200 ABs).
He faces Nationals starter Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.60 ERA, a 5.08 xERA, and a .279 BA / .833 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Batting 3rd in the Diamondbacks order, Moreno will benefit from consistent upper-lineup PA volume.
The main risk is Moreno being held to a single hit without an extra-base hit or walk, but his .400 L15 average and Mikolas' high contact quality allowed make Over 1.5 Total Bases a strong play above its 50.0% break-even bar.
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