MLB · Sun, Jul 26 · 1:35 PM

Diamondbacks at Nationals

O/U 10 · RL Diamondbacks -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· -114

The deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this rubber game carries real wild-card weight for both sides. I’m laying the small price because Miles Mikolas is the most attackable part of this matchup. His 5.60 ERA comes with a 5.08 xERA and only 51 strikeouts in 98 innings, while his four-seamer and sinker have both been hit hard. That suits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, with Ketel Marte particularly dangerous against sinkers. Kohl Drake is still an unknown in only his second start, so I want no part of the run line, but Arizona owns the better season-long pitching numbers and has Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald rested. Washington can damage Drake through James Wood and red-hot CJ Abrams, but I prefer Arizona’s full-game pitching path.

The pick & result

Published pick: Diamondbacks ML -114
Published odds: -114
Result: Lost
Final score: 7-10

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

The trade deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this deciding game matters in the playoff race for both teams.

**My pick: Diamondbacks to win**

I’m backing Arizona at a small price because Miles Mikolas looks like the easiest pitcher to attack. Both his actual and expected results have been poor, he does not miss many bats, and hitters have done plenty of damage against his fastballs. That fits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, while Ketel Marte is especially dangerous against sinking fastballs.

Kohl Drake has only started once before, so I do not want to bet on Arizona winning by multiple runs. Still, the Diamondbacks have been the better pitching team over the full season, and Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald are rested. James Wood and the red-hot CJ Abrams can hurt Drake, but I trust Arizona’s pitching more over the entire game.

The full analysis

The deadline has already changed Washington’s clubhouse, and this rubber game carries real wild-card weight for both sides.

I’m laying the small price because Miles Mikolas is the most attackable part of this matchup. His 5.60 ERA comes with a 5.08 xERA and only 51 strikeouts in 98 innings, while his four-seamer and sinker have both been hit hard. That suits an Arizona lineup led by a hot Gabriel Moreno, with Ketel Marte particularly dangerous against sinkers. Kohl Drake is still an unknown in only his second start, so I want no part of the run line, but Arizona owns the better season-long pitching numbers and has Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald rested. Washington can damage Drake through James Wood and red-hot CJ Abrams, but I prefer Arizona’s full-game pitching path.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
.967
Dylan Crews's vs. Left line (.967 OPS, 65 AB) sits well above his .527 mark the other way (132 AB). Tonight's starter Kohl Drake throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
.988
Brady House's vs. Left line (.988 OPS, 48 AB) sits well above his .550 mark the other way (115 AB). Tonight's starter Kohl Drake throws LHP, the hand he hits best.

HEAT CHECK

CJ Abrams: 1.335 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.335
That 1.335 OPS spans the last 15 days (42 PA) against a .921 season baseline, a 0.414 swing. He has 25 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
Tim Tawa: .959 OPS in Last 15 Days
.959
The last 15 days sample runs 41 PA: a .959 OPS versus .716 for the season, 0.243 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
Nolan Arenado: 1.006 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.006
Over the last 15 days (36 PA) he is at a 1.006 OPS, up 0.255 on his .751 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Ketel Marte: .508 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
.508
Ketel Marte's .508 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .761 season mark, down 0.253. Tonight he draws RHP Miles Mikolas — his weaker side: a .702 OPS vs RHP across 295 AB.
James Wood: .710 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kohl Drake
.710
James Wood's .710 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .937 season mark, down 0.227. Tonight he draws LHP Kohl Drake — his weaker side: a .844 OPS vs LHP across 148 AB.
Geraldo Perdomo: .556 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
.556
Geraldo Perdomo's .556 OPS over the last 15 days (37 PA) trails his .700 season mark, down 0.144. Tonight he draws RHP Miles Mikolas — his stronger side: a .730 OPS vs RHP across 251 AB.

FIRST INNING

ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
Arizona Diamondbacks have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters.

SITUATIONAL

WSH's bullpen has covered 13 innings over the last 3 games
13
That is 13 relief innings in 3 games, led by Zack Littell (5) and Eddy Yean (3.3). ARI's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.

CLOSER WATCH

Paul Sewald
24 SV
Paul Sewald holds twenty-four saves and remains the only choice over Jonathan Loaisiga for the final three outs in Arizona. This workload discrepancy proves Sewald is the only reliable arm to trust for save opportunities on this roster. Roster him for saves.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Andres Chaparro
.800 OPS
Chaparro bats second and brings a solid 0.8 OPS into a matchup against Kohl Drake and his inflated 5.61 xERA. Drake is struggling significantly, making this a prime spot for Chaparro to produce from the top of the order. Stream him tonight in 12-teamers.
Gabriel Moreno
.841 OPS
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .841 OPS, bats 3rd.
Ketel Marte
.761 OPS
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .761 OPS, bats 4th.
Nolan Arenado
.751 OPS
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .751 OPS, bats 6th.
Corbin Carroll
.830 OPS
Pickup vs Miles Mikolas (5.08 xERA) — .830 OPS, bats 1st.

CUT LIST

Kohl Drake
5.61 xERA
Drake maintains a 1.8 ERA while his 5.61 xERA reveals he is pitching far worse than the surface results. Starting him tonight risks your staff's efficiency on a pitcher whose 5.61 xERA indicates he is a liability. Keep him off your ratios.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 26, 2026 at 10:46 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
CJ ABRAMSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBWashington Nationals· +115
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 9
CJ Abrams enters Sunday's matchup in phenomenal current form, having cleared 1.5 total bases in five consecutive games with total base marks of 7, 2, 5, 8, and 4. Over his last 7 games, Abrams is hitting .560 (14-for-25) with 5 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a massive 1.873 OPS, bringing his season slugging percentage to .557. He faces rookie left-hander Kohl Drake, who surrendered a 46.2% Hard-Hit rate, a 15.4% barrel rate, and a 5.61 xERA in his initial outing. Batting out of the cleanup spot for a Nationals offense operating in warm 84°F weather at neutral Nationals Park, Abrams has high volume floor opportunities (4+ expected PAs). The primary risk to this prop is a lefty-on-lefty suppression scenario where Drake pitches around Abrams or limits him to single base hits, but Abrams' barrel metrics and hit distribution far exceed the 46.5% break-even hurdle required at +115.
CJ Abrams
Total Bases over 1.5
+115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 9
Washington Nationals
CJ Abrams enters Sunday's matchup in phenomenal current form, having cleared 1.5 total bases in five consecutive games with total base marks of 7, 2, 5, 8, and 4. Over his last 7 games, Abrams is hitting .560 (14-for-25) with 5 home runs, 11 RBIs, and a massive 1.873 OPS, bringing his season slugging percentage to .557.
He faces rookie left-hander Kohl Drake, who surrendered a 46.2% Hard-Hit rate, a 15.4% barrel rate, and a 5.61 xERA in his initial outing. Batting out of the cleanup spot for a Nationals offense operating in warm 84°F weather at neutral Nationals Park, Abrams has high volume floor opportunities (4+ expected PAs).
The primary risk to this prop is a lefty-on-lefty suppression scenario where Drake pitches around Abrams or limits him to single base hits, but Abrams' barrel metrics and hit distribution far exceed the 46.5% break-even hurdle required at +115.
GARY'S PICK
GABRIEL MORENOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +100
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 4
Gabriel Moreno has been the motor of Arizona's offense, batting .400 (16-for-40) with a 1.005 OPS over his last 15 games and .333 over his last 7 games. On the season, Moreno carries a .311 batting average and .380 xwOBA, performing at an elite level against right-handed pitching (.320 AVG, .853 OPS in 200 ABs). He faces Nationals starter Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.60 ERA, a 5.08 xERA, and a .279 BA / .833 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Batting 3rd in the Diamondbacks order, Moreno will benefit from consistent upper-lineup PA volume. The main risk is Moreno being held to a single hit without an extra-base hit or walk, but his .400 L15 average and Mikolas' high contact quality allowed make Over 1.5 Total Bases a strong play above its 50.0% break-even bar.
Gabriel Moreno
Total Bases over 1.5
+100 · CASHED · ACTUAL 4
Arizona Diamondbacks
Gabriel Moreno has been the motor of Arizona's offense, batting .400 (16-for-40) with a 1.005 OPS over his last 15 games and .333 over his last 7 games. On the season, Moreno carries a .311 batting average and .380 xwOBA, performing at an elite level against right-handed pitching (.320 AVG, .853 OPS in 200 ABs).
He faces Nationals starter Miles Mikolas, who has struggled significantly with a 5.60 ERA, a 5.08 xERA, and a .279 BA / .833 OPS allowed to right-handed hitters. Batting 3rd in the Diamondbacks order, Moreno will benefit from consistent upper-lineup PA volume.
The main risk is Moreno being held to a single hit without an extra-base hit or walk, but his .400 L15 average and Mikolas' high contact quality allowed make Over 1.5 Total Bases a strong play above its 50.0% break-even bar.

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