Sports Picks Archive — Monday, July 27, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· -131

Sunday’s comeback gave Seattle a lift, but I’m betting the pitching matchup rather than the emotion. George Kirby has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts and has held Texas to a .200 average across 12 career meetings. Kumar Rocker’s slider is dangerous, but left-handed hitters have posted an .823 OPS with nine homers against him, and Seattle is sending six lefty bats to the plate. Rocker’s 4.60 xERA also suggests more vulnerability than his last start showed. I’ll lay the moneyline, but Seattle’s inconsistent offense keeps me off the run line.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· +102

The National League Wild Card race comes to PNC Park, where two clubs separated by one game open a series four days before the deadline. Pittsburgh has home field and Sunday’s momentum, but this matchup is priced more decisively than I see it. Mitch Keller owns the cleaner full-season profile, yet Arizona can attack his defining split: six Diamondbacks are set to hit from the left side, against which he has allowed an .822 OPS. His four-seamer has been vulnerable, while Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno and Ketel Marte match up well with Keller’s fastball-heavy foundation. Arizona’s lineup has produced throughout this road swing, and its significant defensive advantage matters if this becomes a messy middle-innings game. Merrill Kelly is the risk because Pittsburgh can also load up from the left side, but he has allowed only four earned runs across his last 17 innings. With both bullpens carrying workload and reliability concerns and possible weather adding variance, I would rather take plus money than lay -123. I make Arizona slightly better than a coin flip, so Diamondbacks ML +102 is my bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -120

Deadline week opens under unsettled skies at Comerica Park, where two fringe contenders are trying to keep close losses from becoming a sell signal. This is priced near a coin flip, but Detroit has the cleaner path through nine innings. Keider Montero’s recent role changes create some uncertainty about his depth, but not his form. He owns a 3.14 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and balanced splits, and he delivered 5⅓ innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts in his return to the rotation. That is a tough matchup for a Baltimore lineup that drops off considerably after its first four hitters. Kyle Bradish has posted three straight quality starts, but Detroit’s Dillon Dingler and Hao-Yu Lee are swinging particularly well. Kerry Carpenter’s absence matters and keeps my stake modest. Still, Detroit has the advantages in defense, home field and late-inning availability, especially after Baltimore played 11 innings Sunday and heavily taxed its bullpen. Any weather disruption would further emphasize that relief edge. My bet is Tigers ML -120.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Marlins· -113

Under the closed roof in Miami, the Phillies send a frontline ace to the mound against a club searching for any way to stop a 12-game slide. Philadelphia finally broke out offensively Sunday, and this matchup gives that lineup a chance to keep rolling. Zack Wheeler has allowed three earned runs across his last 20 innings, with 33 strikeouts, and his effectiveness against hitters from both sides makes Miami’s lineup difficult to navigate toward a favorable matchup. Tyler Phillips has a tougher assignment: six left-handed bats are stacked into Philadelphia’s order, while lefties have produced a .810 OPS against him. His 4.76 xERA also suggests his 3.52 ERA has flattered the underlying contact. If Phillips exits early, Philadelphia has another advantage against a depleted Miami relief corps, while Jhoan Duran and the Phillies’ primary late-inning arms are rested. Philadelphia’s inconsistency makes the -195 moneyline too expensive, so I’ll trade the extra run for a much better price. Wheeler gives the Phillies a strong chance to control the early innings, and Miami has averaged only 2.7 runs over its last 10 games. I’m laying the run and a half with Philadelphia at -113.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -125

Max Scherzer returns to Nationals Park on his 42nd birthday, but this reunion comes with no room for nostalgia. Washington brings the hotter lineup into the series opener, while Toronto arrives after losing its fourth consecutive series. Scherzer has not pitched in the majors since June 10, is not fully stretched out and owns a 10.23 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 22 innings. Washington can send eight hitters to the plate from the left side, a major concern against a pitcher who has allowed lefties a .322 average and 1.067 OPS. James Wood and CJ Abrams are especially dangerous against four-seam fastballs, and Washington has averaged 7.1 runs over its last 10 games. The Nationals’ tired bullpen and opener-bulk arrangement keep me away from laying 1.5 runs. But Toronto has averaged only 2.4 runs over its last 10, and its lineup has not shown enough consistency to offset Washington’s substantial offensive advantage. I’ll back the Nationals to win at -125.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· +123

Monday night in Cincinnati brings thunder in the forecast and two clubs moving in opposite directions. The Reds open a long homestand after taking two of three in St. Louis, while Cleveland arrives on a five-game skid after consecutive shutouts. Chase Burns is the separator. His 97.8 mph fastball and wipeout slider have produced a 2.42 ERA and 124 strikeouts, a difficult assignment for a Guardians lineup that has scored three runs in its last three games. Slade Cecconi has allowed 11 earned runs over 13⅓ innings in his last three starts, and his sinker-cutter mix is vulnerable against the heart of Cincinnati’s order. Spencer Steer’s fresh wrist injury costs Cincinnati a legitimate power bat, and the weather adds volatility, so I will not lay -163. But if the Reds convert this starting-pitching advantage, the likeliest script is Burns creating early separation before the bullpens enter. I’m taking Reds -1.5 at +123.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· -108

The lights come on at Citi Field with storms nearby and two clubs heading in opposite directions. Atlanta arrives atop the division at 62-43, while New York is playing under the weight of an approaching deadline sell-off. Zac Thornton’s 1.93 ERA makes the Mets tempting, but four starts are not enough for me to buy the rookie at face value. His 4.21 expected ERA and 12.5% barrel rate point toward regression. Martín Pérez carries risk after walking four in his return, but he still delivered four scoreless innings and has held right-handed hitters to a .646 OPS, useful against New York’s righty-heavy order. Ronald Acuña Jr. returning at the top of Atlanta’s lineup is the decisive same-day change. Add the Braves’ stronger offense, defense and late-inning staff, and I make them better than the near-coin-flip price despite Thornton’s early success. I’ll take Atlanta to win at -108 rather than ask for the extra run on the road.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -144

Storm clouds hover over the South Side as two playoff teams open a four-game set. Chicago brings the momentum, but New York brings the decisive advantage on the mound. Max Fried looked sharp in his return, allowing one hit over five scoreless innings, and his 2.48 xERA supports the larger body of work. Noah Schultz owns a 6.04 ERA and 6.03 xERA, with his sinker and sweeper producing especially poor expected results. The Yankees are missing Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, but Paul Goldschmidt and the rest of their right-handed bats still have a favorable path against Schultz. Chicago’s five-homer Sunday is difficult to carry over against a pitcher who has allowed just a 1.7% barrel rate. The depleted New York lineup makes laying the run and a half unnecessarily aggressive, but I trust Fried and the stronger Yankees bullpen to win the game. David Bednar is rested, while Chicago used most of its late-inning group Sunday. I’ll take the Yankees moneyline at -144.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -123

The heat will be hanging over Busch Stadium as the Cubs and Cardinals open a four-game rivalry set. In a matchup with two vulnerable starters and shaky bullpens, I want the lineup that has consistently created more pressure. David Peterson’s 5.97 ERA and 10-run disaster against St. Louis earlier this month keep this from being a bigger play, but he has allowed just one earned run across his past two starts. Matthew Liberatore owns a 5.18 ERA with a nearly identical 5.26 xERA, and Chicago can attack him with a right-handed-heavy lineup while Pete Crow-Armstrong enters on a tear. The Cubs are averaging 6.5 runs over their past 10 games; the Cardinals are at 3.7. Both relief corps have flaws, but St. Louis used Ryne Stanek and George Soriano on Sunday, and closer Riley O’Brien’s illness leaves another late-inning question. Chicago has the deeper offense and the better recent form, but the pitching volatility makes laying 1.5 runs unnecessary. I’ll take the Cubs moneyline at -123.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -112

The lights are on in Anaheim with Houston trying to stay attached to the playoff race as deadline week begins. The Astros had won four straight before Sunday’s blowout, and I’m treating that loss as a speed bump rather than a reason to abandon their recent form. Walbert Ureña has allowed only two earned runs over his past 15⅔ innings, but he also issued 10 walks in that stretch. Houston’s first three hitters are 28-for-69 with 10 homers over the past seven days, and Peña, Alvarez and Paredes all handle premium fastballs and sinkers well. Tatsuya Imai carries more volatility, but his slider misses bats and he has held right-handed hitters to a .169 average and .579 OPS, an important split against an Angels lineup featuring six right-handed bats. The late innings tilt toward Houston. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu both rested Sunday, while the Angels used five relievers and Ryan Zeferjahn worked for a third consecutive day. Houston also owns the cleaner defense, which matters in a game lined this tightly. I’ll back the hotter top of the order and the better late-game setup with the Astros moneyline at -112.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -183

The lights come on in Sacramento with Boston carrying an 8-2 run into a hot, hitter-friendly night. I’m backing the Red Sox moneyline at -183. Payton Tolle is the separator. His 2.93 xERA and .267 expected wOBA support the 3.31 ERA, and he has held hitters on both sides below a .675 OPS. Jack Perkins has better underlying numbers than his 6.75 ERA suggests, but his four-seamer and cutter have been vulnerable, a bad combination against Willson Contreras and a balanced Boston lineup. The relief matchup makes me comfortable paying the price. Boston can shorten the game with Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman, while the Athletics have a taxed bullpen behind a starter who has completed five innings just twice in his past three turns. The heat, park and Tolle’s workload create enough variance that I prefer the moneyline over laying 1.5 runs. Red Sox ML -183 is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -142

The marine air is waiting at Oracle Park as the NL Central leaders open a California trip against a Giants club running out of runway. Milwaukee arrives having won seven of 10, while San Francisco is trying to stay composed with the trade deadline four days away. Neither starter inspires complete confidence, but Milwaukee is better equipped to survive that uncertainty. Tyler Mahle has allowed right-handed hitters a .315 average and .872 OPS, a bad matchup against Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn and the productive bottom of the Brewers’ order. Jung Hoo Lee’s fresh absence also removes a valuable contact bat from San Francisco’s lineup. If this reaches the bullpens early, Milwaukee owns the more dependable late-inning group, along with substantial advantages in defense and overall run prevention. Oracle Park makes laying the run and a half less appealing, so I’ll pay the moneyline price rather than ask for margin. The Brewers are 30-19 on the road, score nearly a run more per game than the Giants and have enough depth to overcome a shaky Sproat inning. My bet is Brewers moneyline at -142.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

DOMINIC CANZONETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +135

MATCHUP: RHP Kumar Rocker (Throws: R) vs Dominic Canzone (Bats: L) THE KEY FACTOR: Kumar Rocker suffers extreme platoon splits against left-handed batters, giving up a .277 AVG, .823 OPS, and 9 HR in 202 ABs. Canzone, batting 3rd in the Mariners order as a LHB, is positioned at the heart of the order to exploit this weakness. Furthermore, Canzone excels in day games, hitting .333 with a .994 OPS (29-for-87). Coming off a 3-hit performance in Game 3 that produced 7 total bases, Canzone's matchup against Rocker offers superior upside relative to the +135 price tag. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Globe Life Field — Neutral (Factor: 1.01). Indoor retractable roof, climate controlled at 71°F. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 3rd guarantees 4 to 5 plate appearances in a game with an implied total of 8 runs. THE RISK: Texas manager Skip Schumaker pulls Rocker early and relies on left-handed relievers like Jacob Latz or Tyler Alexander to neutralize Canzone in key late-game plate appearances.

GARY'S PICK

WYATT LANGFORDTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +125

MATCHUP: RHP George Kirby (Throws: R) vs Wyatt Langford (Bats: R) THE KEY FACTOR: Langford is locked in at the plate, batting .341 (14-for-41) over his last 10 games and .348 over his last 7. In this 4-game series against Seattle, he is 5-for-12 with 2 doubles and a home run, surpassing 1.5 total bases in 2 of the 3 games. Batting 2nd in a core featuring Pederson and Nimmo, Langford receives elite protection and consistent opportunity. PARK/WEATHER CHECK: Globe Life Field — Neutral (Factor: 1.01). Indoor retractable roof, climate controlled at 71°F. VOLUME FLOOR: Batting 2nd ensures 4 to 5 plate appearances in a neutral park setting. THE RISK: George Kirby brings elite control (4 BB in last 32.0 IP) and a 2.25 ERA in his last 5 starts, potentially suppressing Langford's hard contact into early-count groundouts.

GARY'S PICK

MITCH KELLERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -115

Arizona can attack Keller’s vulnerable side with six hitters capable of batting left-handed. He has allowed a .278 average, .822 OPS and 11 home runs to lefties, while the Diamondbacks are averaging 6.3 runs over their last 10 games. Keller has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and his 5.23 xERA supports another difficult matchup.

GARY'S PICK

ESMERLYN VALDEZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +126

Valdez has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games and already has 14 home runs in 37 games. His recent contact has remained loud, with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and three barrels on nine balls in play. Kelly has allowed a 13.5% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate, while his fastball and cutter have both been punished. Valdez gets that matchup from the cleanup spot with the wind moving toward left field.

GARY'S PICK

HAO-YU LEETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +170

Lee is the Detroit hitter whose recent contact I want to buy. He is 9-for-22 with two homers over the past week and has produced a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, 12 hard-hit balls and three barrels in his recent contact sample. Bradish has allowed right-handed hitters a .249 average and .715 OPS, and the wind blowing toward left field helps Lee’s side. At +170, a double or two singles is enough.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON MARSHTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +137

Marsh’s recent results are hiding encouraging contact: nine hard-hit balls and two barrels on his last 16 balls in play, with only a 17% whiff rate. He owns a .307 average and .852 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Tyler Phillips has allowed lefties a .282 average and .810 OPS. Phillips also carries a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and Marsh bats cleanup. One extra-base hit clears this at an attractive plus price.

GARY'S PICK

CJ ABRAMSTOTAL BASES OVER 2.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +155

This is more than a reaction to Abrams' two-homer game Sunday. He is 15-for-26 with six homers over his last seven games and has cleared 2.5 total bases in eight of his last 14. The matchup supports the surge: Scherzer has allowed left-handed hitters a .322 average, 1.067 OPS and six homers in 59 at-bats. Abrams also owns a .653 slugging percentage against four-seamers, Scherzer's primary pitch. One homer clears this by itself, while a double and a single provide another route at a worthwhile plus price.

GARY'S PICK

GEORGE SPRINGERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +135

Springer is the Toronto hitter I want against Washington's opener-and-bulk arrangement. He is batting .343 with a .966 OPS over his last 15 games and has cleared this line nine times in that span. The underlying contact is also strong, with 11 hard-hit balls on 25 recent balls in play and only a 14% whiff rate. After Eddy Yean opens, Springer should receive favorable right-on-left looks against likely bulk arm Andrew Alvarez, followed by a heavily worked Nationals bullpen. At +135, two singles or one extra-base hit is enough.

GARY'S PICK

MARTIN PEREZPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -136

I only need two walks from a pitcher who has exceeded this line in seven of his last eight starts. Pérez issued four, two and three walks in his last three outings despite working no more than five innings in any of them. His recent command makes two free passes more likely than this price suggests.

GARY'S PICK

TYRONE TAYLORTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· +204

Taylor's current production makes this plus-money price too generous. He has five homers in 18 games since returning from the injured list and enters with an extra-base hit in consecutive games. He also owns a .292 average and .872 OPS against lefties. One double or homer clears the line, and Taylor has reached two total bases in eight of his last 13.

GARY'S PICK

EDWIN ARROYOSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +106

Arroyo's .299 expected average is well above his .244 actual mark, and his .285 slugging percentage reflects a hitter whose production is heavily concentrated in singles. He has recorded a single in eight of his last 15 games. Cecconi has allowed a batting average above .280 to hitters from either side and has surrendered 22 hits across his last 13 1/3 innings.

GARY'S PICK

NOAH SCHULTZPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +100

Schultz has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and his 6.04 ERA is fully supported by a 6.03 xERA. His sinker and sweeper have each allowed an xwOBA above .500, while his overall barrel rate allowed is 10.7%. The Yankees are depleted, but the confirmed lineup still gives Schultz several dangerous right-handed matchups, and righties own an .816 OPS with eight homers against him. Even money is enough in a hitter-friendly park with the wind blowing out.

THE LONG SHOT

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDTHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +450

Goldschmidt owns a .333 average and 1.066 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, including nine home runs in 111 at-bats. Schultz has surrendered eight homers to right-handed hitters in 174 at-bats, along with a 10.7% barrel rate overall. Goldschmidt has also slugged .784 against four-seam fastballs, Schultz's most-used pitch. With a 16 mph wind blowing toward left field, +450 is a worthwhile price on this specific power matchup.

GARY'S PICK

IAN HAPPWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +166

This price is too generous for Happ to draw one walk. He has walked in 10 of his last 15 games, owns four career walks against Matthew Liberatore and faces a starter who has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight outings. Chicago averages 4.35 walks per game, and its productive lineup should help Happ receive a fourth plate appearance despite batting seventh.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -105

Crow-Armstrong is leading off and gets an excellent left-on-left matchup. Liberatore has allowed a .313 average and .910 OPS to left-handed hitters, while Crow-Armstrong owns a .285 average and .861 OPS against lefties. He also has handled two important parts of Liberatore's arsenal, slugging .708 against sliders and .654 against sinkers. His recent form, maximum plate appearances and 99-degree weather with the wind going toward right field make two total bases a strong near-even play.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN SCHANUELSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -124

Schanuel is batting .343 over the last 15 days and has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games. His 12% recent whiff rate fits well against Tatsuya Imai, who has allowed left-handed hitters a .259 average and .815 OPS. Batting third should give Schanuel enough chances to turn that contact advantage into one single.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -110

Alvarez has cleared this line in nine of his last 14 games while producing a 95.0 mph average exit velocity and four barrels on 19 recent balls in play. Walbert Urena features a 97.5 mph four-seam and 97.6 mph sinker, and Alvarez owns a .511 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .512 xwOBA against sinkers. Urena's contact suppression adds risk, but Alvarez's current form and pitch fit make the even price playable.

GARY'S PICK

PAYTON TOLLEK'S OVER 5.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -106

Tolle has 22 strikeouts across 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts, clearing this number each time. His 96-mph fastball, high-whiff curveball and cutter give him multiple put-away options, while Oakland averages 8.66 strikeouts per game. Six is reachable even if Tolle only works five-plus innings, making the near-even price attractive.

GARY'S PICK

WILLSON CONTRERASTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -114

Contreras has exceeded 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 14 games and enters this matchup 7-for-19 over his last seven. Jack Perkins has allowed a .279 average and .825 OPS to right-handed hitters, with especially vulnerable four-seam and cutter results. Contreras handles premium velocity, is batting third and will also get later opportunities against a taxed Oakland bullpen in favorable hitting weather.

GARY'S PICK

RAFAEL DEVERSWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +126

Sproat has issued nine walks over just 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts, and he has exceeded 1.5 walks in six of his last eight. Devers has walked in nine of his last 15 games and is the hitter Sproat has the most incentive to approach carefully. Batting cleanup also gives Devers a good chance at four plate appearances. At plus money, I like the combination of his patience and Sproat's recent command trouble.

GARY'S PICK

BRICE TURANGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +135

Turang owns a .295 average and .923 OPS against right-handed pitching, and he enters this matchup batting third after going 8-for-22 over his last seven games. Mahle throws his four-seam fastball nearly half the time, while Turang has slugged .482 against that pitch. Turang has cleared this line in seven of his last 15, and his lineup position gives him paths through either one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game.

Research

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TEAM RECORDBOS @ OAK
Athletics 1-7 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
Oakland has dropped six consecutive Jack Perkins starts and seven of his last eight. Boston is the obvious side to examine, especially with the Athletics’ bullpen coming off 16.3 innings in three games.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CIN
Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Cincinnati has won seven straight Chase Burns starts and seven of his last eight overall. That kind of sustained team support makes the Reds tough to step in front of tonight.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ DET
Tigers 7-1 in Keider Montero's last 8 starts
Detroit keeps delivering behind Keider Montero, winning seven of his last eight starts. With Baltimore’s bullpen carrying the heavier recent workload, the Tigers deserve a look tonight.
CUT LISTARI tonight
Merrill Kelly
Starts tonight for ARI — 7.29 xERA behind a 5.12 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ WSH
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Eddy Yean (RHP)
Over 192 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .807 OPS versus .358 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Eddy Yean tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ WSH
CJ Abrams: 1.535 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.535 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .940 season baseline, a 0.595 swing. He has 27 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ CHW
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Paul Goldschmidt's vs. Left line (1.066 OPS, 111 AB) sits well above his .603 mark the other way (156 AB). Tonight's starter Noah Schultz throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
STREAKHOU @ LAA
LAA games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Angels games have produced only 4.5 runs per night during a six-game under streak. An 8.5 total still leaves room to follow that trend, though the taxed bullpens add late-inning risk.
P final total 10 vs 8.5
STREAKNYY @ CHW
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Six straight Yankees games have stayed under, averaging only 6.5 combined runs despite much higher closing totals. The market has adjusted to 8.5, but the under remains the form play.
P final total 14 vs 8.5
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Brandon Sproat (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert carries a .759 OPS vs. Right (185 AB) against .098 the other way (30 AB), and faces RHP Brandon Sproat from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
BULLPENHOU @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Angels have asked their bullpen for 14 innings over three games, with five relievers appearing multiple times. That makes their late-game pitching a clear concern against Houston.
REGRESSIONTOR @ WSH
Max Scherzer: 10.23 ERA vs 6.3 xERA
Max Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA is ugly, but his 6.31 expected ERA says the results have been somewhat worse than the contact deserved. That points toward improvement, not a full return to vintage Scherzer.
P 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
TEAM RECORDNYY @ CHW
White Sox 2-6 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts
White Sox are 2-6 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CIN
Guardians 2-6 in Slade Cecconi's last 8 starts
Cleveland is just 2-6 in Slade Cecconi’s last eight starts. His recent form is also headed the wrong way, making the Guardians difficult to back despite their season-series success.
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIA
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper's vs. Right line (.982 OPS, 228 AB) sits well above his .621 mark the other way (146 AB). Tonight's starter Tyler Phillips throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
TEAM RECORDTOR @ WSH
Blue Jays 1-5 in Max Scherzer's last 6 starts
Toronto has lost five straight Max Scherzer starts and is only 1-5 across his last six. His underlying numbers hint at some improvement, but the Blue Jays have not earned trust in this spot.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ MIA
Phillies 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts
Philadelphia has won six of Zack Wheeler’s last eight starts. Combined with its 6-3 season-series advantage over Miami, that gives the Phillies a solid starting point tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ CIN
Guardians are 5-1 vs Reds this season
Cleveland owns a 5-1 season-series lead over Cincinnati, including a 10-3 win in the latest meeting. That history matters, but tonight’s starting-pitching trends point much more strongly toward the Reds.
HEAT CHECKATL @ NYM
Drake Baldwin: 1.333 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 42 PA: a 1.333 OPS versus .855 for the season, 0.478 above his norm. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PARK WEATHERNYY @ CHW
Wind blowing out 16 mph at Rate Field tonight
Conditions at Rate Field: Partly Cloudy, 83°, wind 16 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 14 vs 8.5 (over lean)
TEAM RECORDHOU @ LAA
Astros 6-2 in Tatsuya Imai's last 8 starts
Astros are 6-2 in Tatsuya Imai's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ DET
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 1st
Dylan Beavers carries a .737 OPS vs. Right (132 AB) against .450 the other way (25 AB), and faces RHP Keider Montero from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGECHC @ STL
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Matthew Liberatore (LHP), batting 4th
Carson Kelly carries a .976 OPS vs. Left (82 AB) against .590 the other way (159 AB), and faces LHP Matthew Liberatore from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.898 OPS, 282 AB) sits well above his .602 mark the other way (49 AB). Tonight's starter Max Scherzer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ MIA
Trea Turner: 1.125 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.125 OPS, up 0.439 on his .686 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.918 OPS, 271 AB) sits well above his .560 mark the other way (129 AB). Tonight's starter Brandon Sproat throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALBOS @ OAK
16.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Oakland’s bullpen has absorbed 16.3 innings in three games, including eight from Luis Morales and Mason Barnett alone. That workload could leave the Athletics exposed if Jack Perkins exits early again.
P flagged side lost 4-2
HEAT CHECKHOU @ LAA
Jeremy Pena: 1.359 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.359 OPS spans the last 15 days (35 PA) against a .878 season baseline, a 0.481 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGESEA @ TEX
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Evan Carter gets his preferred split against right-hander George Kirby, with a .708 OPS versus righties compared with .335 against lefties. Batting fifth gives him a reasonable RBI and total-bases setup, though Kirby is in excellent form.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 5th against Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Over 256 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .877 OPS versus .508 in 72 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADPHI @ MIA
Phillies are 6-3 vs Marlins this season
Philadelphia has taken six of nine from Miami despite getting routed 12-4 in the latest meeting. With Zack Wheeler starting, the Phillies are well positioned to answer that loss.
COOLING OFFARI @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .475 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Merrill Kelly
Bryan Reynolds's .475 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .836 season mark, down 0.361. Tonight he draws RHP Merrill Kelly — his weaker side: a .819 OPS vs RHP across 253 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADSEA @ TEX
Rangers are 7-4 vs Mariners this season
Texas leads Seattle 7-4 in the season series, although the Mariners won the latest meeting. I give the larger current weight to George Kirby’s form rather than treating this as a simple revenge spot.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.25 xERA) — .836 OPS, bats 3rd.
STARTER FORMTOR @ WSH
Andrew Alvarez: 8.25 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andrew Alvarez has posted an 8.25 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his last three starts. His 4.22 season ERA understates how vulnerable he has looked lately.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
BULLPENTOR @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington’s bullpen has covered 15 innings across the last three games, with three arms working more than once. That is a meaningful disadvantage against a Toronto relief group that has needed only six innings.
PLATOON EDGEARI @ PIT
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Merrill Kelly (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .864 OPS vs. Right (266 AB) against .617 the other way (116 AB), and faces RHP Merrill Kelly from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ CIN
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 4th against Chase Burns (RHP)
Over 190 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .831 OPS versus .535 in 90 AB the other way. He sees RHP Chase Burns tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ CIN
Steven Kwan: 1.064 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 37 PA: a 1.064 OPS versus .660 for the season, 0.404 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
PARK WEATHERBAL @ DET
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Conditions at Comerica Park: Partly Cloudy, 80°, wind 14 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 13 vs 8.5 (over lean)
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.25 xERA) — .813 OPS, bats 5th.
HEAT CHECKMIL @ SF
Joey Ortiz: 1.183 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.183 OPS versus .670 for the season, 0.513 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
SITUATIONALTOR @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 15 innings over the last 3 games
Washington has required 15 bullpen innings in three games compared with only six for Toronto. If this game is close after the starters leave, the fresher Blue Jays relief corps should hold the edge.
P flagged side lost 3-2
REGRESSIONBOS @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.75 ERA vs 4.2 xERA
Jack Perkins’ 6.75 ERA is well above his 4.18 expected mark, so some positive correction is plausible. I still would not make that gap the entire handicap with Oakland losing his last six starts and carrying a tired bullpen.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ PIT
Brandon Lowe
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.25 xERA) — .789 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSARI @ PIT
Nick Gonzales
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.25 xERA) — .780 OPS, bats 6th.
HR THREATYankees @ White Sox
Paul Goldschmidt
Gary's Take Goldschmidt owns a .333 average and 1.066 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, including nine home runs in 111 at-bats. Schultz has surrendered eight homers to right-handed hitters in 174 at-bats, along with a 10.7% barrel rate overall.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENATL @ NYM
Atlanta Braves pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Atlanta has used 14 relief innings over its last three games, with three arms appearing multiple times. That raises the cost of another short start and nudges the late-game matchup toward New York.
TOMORROWTOR @ WSH
Shane Bieber: 4.7 ERA vs 7.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 4.7 ERA against a 7.24 expected ERA (2.54 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .267 vs .309 expected.
COOLING OFFPHI @ MIA
Xavier Edwards: .425 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zack Wheeler
Xavier Edwards's .425 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .771 season mark, down 0.346. Tonight he draws RHP Zack Wheeler — his stronger side: a .773 OPS vs RHP across 296 AB.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKBOS @ OAK
Jeff McNeil: 1.182 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (22 PA) he is at a 1.182 OPS, up 0.545 on his .637 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
SITUATIONALATL @ NYM
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for ATL
Atlanta’s relievers have covered 14 innings over three games, three more than the Mets’ bullpen. That gives New York a modest late-inning advantage if the starters cannot work deep.
P flagged side lost 3-14
SITUATIONALHOU @ LAA
LAA's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
The Angels’ bullpen has logged 14 innings in three games, led by a heavy burden on Brent Suter. Houston has worked hard too, but Los Angeles enters with the more concerning relief situation.
P flagged side lost 6-4
REGRESSIONATL @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 1.93 ERA vs 4.23 xERA
Zac Thornton’s 1.93 ERA is backed by a much shakier 4.21 expected ERA and a wide gap between actual and expected batting average. I would be careful paying a premium for his surface results tonight.
P 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
PARK WEATHERMIL @ SF
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Clear, 65°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 3 vs 8.5 (over lean)
HEAT CHECKPHI @ MIA
J.T. Realmuto: 1.017 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (32 PA) he is at a 1.017 OPS, up 0.361 on his .656 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-2, 2 TB
REGRESSIONARI @ PIT
Merrill Kelly: 5.12 ERA vs 7.29 xERA
Merrill Kelly’s 5.12 ERA may actually flatter him, with a 7.25 expected ERA and .305 expected batting average allowed. His recent hot streak looks fragile rather than fully convincing.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWTOR @ WSH
Shane Bieber: 4.7 ERA vs 7.21 xERA
For tomorrow, Bieber’s 4.70 ERA is being flattered by contact that points to a 7.21 xERA. Washington’s bats could offer value if the market prices Bieber by reputation and surface results.
COOLING OFFATL @ NYM
Mauricio Dubon: .484 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton
Mauricio Dubon's .484 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .719 season mark, down 0.235. Tonight he draws LHP Zac Thornton — his weaker side: a .689 OPS vs LHP across 142 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
STARTER FORMARI @ PIT
Merrill Kelly: 2.12 ERA over his last 3 starts
Merrill Kelly has delivered a 2.12 ERA over his last three starts, but the underlying season profile warns against assuming that run will continue. I see strong recent form with real regression risk tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
COOLING OFFPHI @ MIA
Brandon Marsh: .428 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Phillips
Brandon Marsh's .428 OPS over the last 15 days (33 PA) trails his .797 season mark, down 0.369. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Phillips — his stronger side: a .852 OPS vs RHP across 264 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFMIL @ SF
Casey Schmitt: .539 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Sproat
Casey Schmitt's .539 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .781 season mark, down 0.242. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Sproat — his weaker side: a .767 OPS vs RHP across 284 AB.
P 1-for-1, 1 TB
STARTER FORMCLE @ CIN
Slade Cecconi: 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
Slade Cecconi has been hit for a 7.43 ERA and 2.03 WHIP over his last three starts. Cincinnati’s seven-game winning streak behind Chase Burns makes that form gap especially difficult to ignore.
COOLING OFFNYY @ CHW
Ben Rice: .726 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Schultz
Ben Rice's .726 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .945 season mark, down 0.219. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Schultz — his weaker side: a .837 OPS vs LHP across 134 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFCHC @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .479 OPS in L15 — draws LHP David Peterson
Ivan Herrera's .479 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .748 season mark, down 0.269. Tonight he draws LHP David Peterson — his stronger side: a .828 OPS vs LHP across 110 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFMIL @ SF
Heliot Ramos: .518 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Sproat
Heliot Ramos's .518 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .737 season mark, down 0.219. Tonight he draws RHP Brandon Sproat — his weaker side: a .699 OPS vs RHP across 200 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONARI @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .293 AVG vs .231 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .293 average comes against a .231 expected (xBA) on 143 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .452 against a .377 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKBAL @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee: 1.106 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (30 PA) he is at a 1.106 OPS, up 0.356 on his .750 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKBAL @ DET
Dillon Dingler: 1.160 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 36 PA: a 1.160 OPS versus .874 for the season, 0.286 above his norm. He has 22 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ WSH
Kazuma Okamoto: .466 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eddy Yean
Kazuma Okamoto's .466 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .747 season mark, down 0.281. Tonight he draws RHP Eddy Yean — his stronger side: a .751 OPS vs RHP across 283 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFCHC @ STL
Jordan Walker: .610 OPS in L15 — draws LHP David Peterson
Jordan Walker's .610 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .856 season mark, down 0.246. Tonight he draws LHP David Peterson — his stronger side: a .917 OPS vs LHP across 101 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKSEA @ TEX
Joc Pederson: 1.185 OPS in Last 15 Days
Joc Pederson owns a 1.185 OPS over the last 15 days, and his total-bases line is only 0.5. One base is a low hurdle for a hitter seeing the ball this well.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB
PARK WEATHERCHC @ STL
99° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Tonight's reading at Busch Stadium — Partly Cloudy, 99°, wind 6 mph, Out To RF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 10 vs 9.5 (over lean)
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Max Scherzer
Starts tonight for TOR — 6.3 xERA behind a 10.23 ERA.
BULLPENHOU @ LAA
Houston Astros pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston’s bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings in three games, with three relievers making multiple appearances. It is not ideal, although the Angels’ relief corps enters even more heavily taxed.
SITUATIONALBAL @ DET
BAL's bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over the last 3 games
Baltimore’s bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over three games compared with 8.7 for Detroit. That workload edge supports the Tigers if tonight’s game gets decided after the starters depart.
P flagged side won 8-5
STARTER FORMNYY @ CHW
Max Fried: 5.14 ERA over his last 3 starts
Max Fried has allowed eight earned runs in 14 innings across his last three starts, a clear dip from his season standard. The Yankees’ six-game under streak makes his recent wobble the main threat to another low-scoring result.
P 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ STL
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHHOU @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
CUT LISTCHW tonight
Noah Schultz
Starts tonight for CHW — 6.07 xERA behind a 6.04 ERA.
REGRESSIONARI @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .303 AVG vs .255 xBA
Across 288 plate appearances, Jake Mangum carries a .303 average versus a .255 xBA. His wOBA sits at .321 against a .282 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFBAL @ DET
Matt Vierling: .308 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kyle Bradish
Matt Vierling's .308 OPS over the last 15 days (26 PA) trails his .575 season mark, down 0.267. Tonight he draws RHP Kyle Bradish — his weaker side: a .482 OPS vs RHP across 158 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCHC @ STL
Nico Hoerner: .247 AVG vs .294 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .247 against a .294 expected average (xBA) over 459 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .290 against a .322 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 4-for-5, 7 TB
SITUATIONALPHI @ MIA
MIA's bullpen has covered 12 innings over the last 3 games
Miami and Philadelphia have each used exactly 12 bullpen innings over the last three games. There is no meaningful rest edge here, so the starting matchup should carry more weight.
P flagged side won 7-8
RETURN WATCHCHW — return listed 7/27
Everson Pereira
Listed back 7/27 (7-Day IL, concussion) — 0.719 OPS this season.
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran vs George Kirby: .538
Ezequiel Duran is 7-for-13 against George Kirby and enters with an .839 OPS over the last 15 days. The sample is small, but it is enough to put Duran on my hit and total-bases radar.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
BULLPENBOS @ OAK
Boston Red Sox pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston’s bullpen has worked 13.3 innings over three games, but only two relievers appeared multiple times. It is a concern, though still less severe than Oakland’s 16.3-inning burden.
STARTER FORMATL @ NYM
Martin Perez: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Martin Perez owns a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts after pitching to a 3.38 mark for the season. That recent decline makes him difficult to trust against Atlanta.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Colby Thomas
Still hitting 4th for OAK — 0.579 OPS, 0.200 AVG from the 4-hole.
HEAT CHECKSEA @ TEX
Brandon Nimmo: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days
Brandon Nimmo has lifted his OPS to .943 over the last 15 days, a substantial jump from his season baseline. A 1.5 total-bases line is reasonable for his form, but it requires more than the simple one-base hurdle.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
BALLPARKTOR @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Andrew Alvarez pitches to a 4.99 ERA
Andrew Alvarez has a 4.99 ERA at Nationals Park compared with 3.18 elsewhere. Add his recent 8.25 ERA, and his home setting does not look like a source of relief tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFSEA @ TEX
Elias Diaz: .409 OPS in L15 — draws RHP George Kirby
Elias Diaz has managed only a .409 OPS over the last 15 days and owns a .550 OPS against right-handers. Facing an in-form George Kirby makes Diaz an under or no-bet candidate.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERATL @ NYM
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 79°, wind 10 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 17 vs 8.5 (over lean)
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .328 AVG vs .288 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .328 against a .288 expected average (xBA) over 441 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .367 against a .334 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ WSH
Ernie Clement: .297 AVG vs .257 xBA
Across 416 plate appearances, Ernie Clement carries a .297 average versus a .257 xBA. His wOBA sits at .325 against a .275 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 7/28
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/28 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
TOMORROWPHI @ MIA
Aaron Nola: 5.82 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
For tomorrow, Nola’s 5.82 ERA sits well above his 4.30 xERA, with opponents also hitting far above expectation. That is a legitimate bounce-back profile against Miami.
STARTER FORMSEA @ TEX
George Kirby: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
George Kirby has a 1.80 ERA with 20 strikeouts over his last three starts. Texas owns the season-series edge, but Kirby’s current form gives Seattle a legitimate answer tonight.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.79 xERA
Tyler Phillips’ 3.52 ERA is outperforming his 4.76 expected mark, so there is some regression risk beneath the surface. Miami’s first-inning drought still makes it difficult to expect immediate damage.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
TOMORROWPHI @ MIA
Aaron Nola: 5.82 ERA vs 4.32 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 5.82 ERA against a 4.32 expected ERA (1.5 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .280 vs .248 expected.
BALLPARKARI @ PIT
Mitch Keller's ERA jumps to 5.68 at PNC Park
Mitch Keller’s ERA climbs to 5.68 at PNC Park, where opponents are batting .273 against him. Home field has not helped him, giving Arizona’s offense a potentially favorable matchup.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMHOU @ LAA
Walbert Urena: 1.15 ERA over his last 3 starts
Walbert Urena has allowed only two earned runs over 15.7 innings in his last three starts. His form supports the Angels’ six-game under streak, provided their tired bullpen holds up.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFSEA @ TEX
Colt Emerson: .452 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kumar Rocker
Colt Emerson has a .452 OPS over the last 15 days and has been weaker against right-handed pitching. Kumar Rocker gets a favorable matchup if he can avoid giving Emerson free passes.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 7/29
Blas Castano
Listed back 7/29 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
REGRESSIONSEA @ TEX
Wyatt Langford: .290 AVG vs .255 xBA
Wyatt Langford’s .290 average and .369 wOBA both sit well above their expected marks. He remains dangerous, but the contact quality says his current production may be priced near its ceiling.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ SD
Michael King: 3.24 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 3.24 ERA against a 4.6 expected ERA (1.36 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .212 vs .246 expected.
TOMORROWCOL @ SD
Michael King: 3.24 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
For tomorrow, King’s 3.24 ERA is running ahead of a 4.57 xERA. Colorado’s bats could be undervalued if the matchup is priced solely around his surface ERA.
STARTER FORMMIL @ SF
Tyler Mahle: 3.86 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 7 earned runs over his last 16.3 innings (3.86 ERA) with a 1.35 WHIP (1.45 season) — a different pitcher than the 5.31 season line says.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
CLOSER WATCHARI @ PIT
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jonathan Loaisiga with 1).
TOMORROWBAL @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.95 ERA vs 3.2 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 1.95 ERA against a 3.2 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .178 vs .217 expected.
TOMORROWBAL @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.95 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Melton’s 1.95 ERA is backed by a less dominant 3.18 xERA, so some regression is possible tomorrow. Baltimore could be an interesting buy if the market treats that sub-2.00 ERA as fully sustainable.
CLOSER WATCHSEA @ TEX
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 20 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ WSH
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ CIN
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 29 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
CLOSER WATCHATL @ NYM
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 21 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 7/28
Enrique Hernandez
Listed back 7/28 (10-Day-IL, oblique).
CLOSER WATCHPHI @ MIA
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
TOMORROWTEX @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.89 ERA vs 5.02 xERA
Jax carries a 3.89 ERA into tomorrow, but his 5.02 xERA points to a shakier foundation. Texas is the side I would investigate if the matchup price leans too heavily on his surface line.
TOMORROWTEX @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.89 ERA vs 5.05 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 3.89 ERA against a 5.05 expected ERA (1.16 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .242 vs .266 expected.
TOMORROWNYY @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.21 ERA vs 5.33 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYY. A 4.21 ERA against a 5.33 expected ERA (1.12 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .253 vs .268 expected.
CUT LISTDET tonight
Zach McKinstry
Still hitting 6th for DET — 0.575 OPS, 0.200 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTCLE tonight
Steven Kwan
Still hitting 1th for CLE — 0.660 OPS, 0.248 AVG from the 1-hole.
TOMORROWKC @ MIN
Seth Lugo: 4.36 ERA vs 5.4 xERA
Lugo’s 4.36 ERA is outperforming a 5.40 xERA heading into tomorrow. Minnesota’s offense may have more upside than the initial pitching matchup suggests.
TOMORROWNYY @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.21 ERA vs 5.3 xERA
Kay’s 4.21 ERA comes with a 5.30 xERA and an expected batting average above his actual mark. That makes the Yankees a potential offensive target for tomorrow rather than a matchup to avoid.
BATTER VS ARMARI @ PIT
Ketel Marte vs Mitch Keller: .364
In 11 career at-bats against Mitch Keller, Ketel Marte is 4-for-11 for a 1.000 OPS. The two square off again tonight. He enters cold (.625 OPS, L15).
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Jorge Soler
Still hitting 4th for LAA — 0.662 OPS, 0.202 AVG from the 4-hole.
CUT LISTNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Still hitting 4th for NYY — 0.654 OPS, 0.226 AVG from the 4-hole.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
TOMORROWKC @ MIN
Seth Lugo: 4.36 ERA vs 5.43 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIN. A 4.36 ERA against a 5.43 expected ERA (1.07 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .274 vs .278 expected.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Chris Sale: 2.19 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 2.19 ERA against a 3.18 expected ERA (0.99 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .221 vs .223 expected.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Chris Sale: 2.19 ERA vs 3.16 xERA
Sale’s 2.19 ERA is a little ahead of his 3.16 xERA, but this is a modest warning rather than a full fade. I would only look toward the Mets if the market prices Sale as nearly untouchable tomorrow.
BALLPARKCHC @ STL
Matthew Liberatore's ERA drops to 4.62 at Busch Stadium
Matthew Liberatore carries a 4.62 ERA over 10 games (50.7 IP) at Busch Stadium vs 5.77 across 48.3 innings everywhere else. Hitters bat .274 off him here.
P 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMENYY @ CHW
New York Yankees like to run — Edgar Quero (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
New York Yankees attempt 1.2 steals a game, but Edgar Quero has cut down 10 of 31 runners (32%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P New York Yankees stole 2 bases
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
FIRST INNINGARI @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pittsburgh has gone 10 straight games without a first-inning run, but Kelly’s 5.00 opening-frame ERA creates a real conflict. At plus money, the NRFI is interesting rather than automatic.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BALLPARKBAL @ DET
Keider Montero owns a 3.50 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.45 everywhere else
Keider Montero has been better away from Comerica Park, with his ERA rising from 2.45 elsewhere to 3.50 at home. That tempers Detroit enthusiasm slightly, though the Tigers’ 7-1 record in his last eight starts still carries weight.
P 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TEX
Randy Arozarena
Pickup vs Kumar Rocker (4.6 xERA) — .828 OPS, bats 4th.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
FIRST INNINGPHI @ MIA
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Miami has gone scoreless in the first inning in 10 straight, and Wheeler owns a 1.13 first-inning ERA with a .127 average allowed. The Marlins’ first-inning team total under is cleaner than relying on both sides for the full NRFI.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGSEA @ TEX
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle has failed to score in the first inning in 10 straight games, which supports its team first-inning under. I am less enthusiastic about the full NRFI because Rocker owns an 8.47 first-inning ERA.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RUNNING GAMESEA @ TEX
Seattle Mariners like to run — Elias Diaz (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Seattle averages one steal attempt per game, but Elias Diaz has thrown out 33% of runners. The Mariners may test him, though I would be cautious with stolen-base overs in this matchup.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
CUT LISTARI tonight
Max Kepler
Still hitting 5th for ARI — 0.622 OPS, 0.206 AVG from the 5-hole.
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ OAK
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 15%
Jonah Heim is catching tonight at 15% on the season (6-for-40 throwing), and Boston Red Sox attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEPHI @ MIA
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Joe Mack (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (19 of 57) and Philadelphia Phillies run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 5th for STL — 0.633 OPS, 0.238 AVG from the 5-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSBAL @ DET
Keider Montero
Streamer vs BAL — 3.39 xERA · 6.6 K/9 · 0.96 WHIP.
CUT LISTTEX tonight
Evan Carter
Still hitting 5th for TEX — 0.653 OPS, 0.193 AVG from the 5-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TEX
Luke Raley
Pickup vs Kumar Rocker (4.6 xERA) — .732 OPS, bats 6th.
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ TEX
Julio Rodriguez
Pickup vs Kumar Rocker (4.6 xERA) — .733 OPS, bats 2nd.
CUT LISTSEA tonight
Josh Naylor
Still hitting 5th for SEA — 0.676 OPS, 0.258 AVG from the 5-hole.

Graded results

Games

W
Red Sox ML -183
MLB · 4-2
W
Yankees ML -144
MLB · 9-5
W
Cubs ML -123
MLB · 7-3
W
Astros ML -112
MLB · 6-4
L
Brewers ML -142
MLB · 0-3
L
Diamondbacks ML +102
MLB · 2-3
L
Tigers ML -120
MLB · 8-5
L
Phillies -1.5 -113
MLB · 7-8
L
Nationals ML -125
MLB · 3-2
L
Braves ML -108
MLB · 3-14
L
Seattle Mariners ML -131
MLB · 3-7

Props

L
Brandon Marsh · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Brice Turang · over
Brewers @ Giants · Actual 0
L
CJ Abrams · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
George Springer · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Hao-Yu Lee · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 1
W
Ian Happ · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Martin Perez · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Mitch Keller · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 2
W
Noah Schultz · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 3
L
Nolan Schanuel · over
Astros @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Payton Tolle · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 7
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Rafael Devers · over
Brewers @ Giants · Actual 1
W
Tyrone Taylor · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 6
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Wyatt Langford · over
Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Angels · Actual 1

Sports picks for Monday, July 27, 2026

Game picks

Mariners
Moneyline

Diamondbacks
Moneyline

Tigers
Moneyline

Phillies
-1.5

Nationals
Moneyline

Reds
-1.5

Braves
Moneyline

Yankees
Moneyline

Cubs
Moneyline

Astros
Moneyline

Red Sox
Moneyline

Brewers
Moneyline

Player props

Dominic Canzone
Total Bases over 1.5

Wyatt Langford
Total Bases over 1.5

Mitch Keller
Pitcher Earned Runs over 2.5

Esmerlyn Valdez
Total Bases over 1.5

Hao-Yu Lee
Total Bases over 1.5

Brandon Marsh
Total Bases over 1.5

CJ Abrams
Total Bases over 2.5

George Springer
Total Bases over 1.5

Martin Perez
Pitcher Walks over 1.5

Tyrone Taylor
Total Bases over 1.5

Edwin Arroyo
Singles over 0.5

Noah Schultz
Pitcher Earned Runs over 2.5

Paul Goldschmidt
HR over 0.5

Ian Happ
Walks over 0.5

Pete Crow-Armstrong
Total Bases over 1.5

Nolan Schanuel
Singles over 0.5

Yordan Alvarez
Total Bases over 1.5

Payton Tolle
K'S over 5.5

Willson Contreras
Total Bases over 1.5

Rafael Devers
Walks over 0.5

Brice Turang
Total Bases over 1.5

Research

Graded results

Games

Props