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2026-07-27

The stored Gary board for Mon, Jul 27. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

12
MLB2:35 PM

Mariners @ Rangers

Sunday’s comeback gave Seattle a lift, but I’m betting on the pitching matchup, not the emotion. I’m taking the Mariners to win. George Kirby has kept runs down lately and has consistently handled Texas throughout his career. Kumar Rocker’s slider is dangerous, but left-handed hitters have hit him hard and for power, and Seattle’s lineup is loaded with lefties. His underlying pitching numbers also show more weakness than his last start suggested. I’ll back Seattle to win, but their inconsistent offense keeps me from betting on a bigger margin.

Seattle Mariners ML-131
CONF
60%
MLB6:40 PM

Diamondbacks @ Pirates

The National League Wild Card race comes to PNC Park, with these teams neck and neck as the deadline approaches. Pittsburgh is at home and has momentum from Sunday, but I don’t think this matchup is as one-sided as the betting line suggests. Mitch Keller has been steadier over the full season, but Arizona can stack its lineup with left-handed hitters, who have given him trouble. His fastball has been vulnerable, and Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno and Ketel Marte match up well against his fastball-heavy approach. Arizona has also hit well on this road trip and has a clear defensive edge if the game gets sloppy in the middle innings. Merrill Kelly is the concern because Pittsburgh can also use plenty of left-handed hitters, but he has pitched very well lately. Both relief groups have workload and reliability issues, and the weather could make things less predictable. I’d rather back the Diamondbacks at better than even money than pay extra for Pittsburgh. I see Arizona as slightly more likely to win, so I’m betting the Diamondbacks to win.

Diamondbacks ML+102
CONF
56%
MLB6:40 PM

Orioles @ Tigers

Deadline week begins with shaky weather in Detroit, where both teams are trying to stay in the race. The game is priced close to even, but I see Detroit having the clearer path to a win. Keider Montero’s changing role makes it hard to know how long he can pitch, but he has been in strong form. In his return to the starting rotation, he worked deep into the game, allowed only one run and struck out plenty of hitters. That is a difficult matchup for a Baltimore lineup that gets much weaker after the top of the order. Kyle Bradish has also pitched well lately, but Detroit’s Dillon Dingler and Hao-Yu Lee are hitting especially well. Kerry Carpenter being out is important, so I’m keeping my bet modest. Still, I give Detroit the edge on defense, at home and with its rested relief pitchers after Baltimore played extra innings Sunday and used its bullpen heavily. Any weather delay would make that advantage even bigger. I’m betting the Tigers to win at a price slightly worse than even money.

Tigers ML-120
CONF
57%
MLB6:40 PM

Phillies @ Marlins

With the roof closed in Miami, I like Philadelphia’s chances behind Zack Wheeler against a team stuck in a long losing streak. The Phillies’ offense finally came alive Sunday, and this matchup gives it a good chance to stay hot. Wheeler has been excellent lately, piling up strikeouts while allowing very little damage. He handles hitters from either side well, so Miami has few favorable options. Tyler Phillips faces a Philadelphia lineup loaded with left-handed hitters, who have hit him hard. His results also look better than the quality of contact he has allowed. If he leaves early, the Phillies have another edge against Miami’s worn-down relief pitchers, while Jhoan Duran and Philadelphia’s main late-game arms are rested. The Phillies have been too inconsistent for me to pay the expensive price just to back them to win. I’d rather take the better value and ask them to win by at least two runs. Wheeler can control the game early, and Miami’s offense has struggled badly lately. I’m backing Philadelphia to cover the extra run.

Phillies -1.5-113
CONF
64%
MLB6:45 PM

Blue Jays @ Nationals

Max Scherzer returns to Nationals Park on his birthday, but I’m not buying into the nostalgia. Washington has the hotter lineup entering the opener, while Toronto has lost several straight series. Scherzer has been out of the majors for weeks, is not ready for a full workload and has been hit hard, especially for home runs. Washington can load its lineup with left-handed hitters, who have had plenty of success against him. James Wood and CJ Abrams also handle his main fastball well, and the Nationals have been scoring runs in bunches lately. Washington’s tired relief pitchers and planned pitching setup keep me from betting on a win by two or more. But Toronto’s offense has struggled lately and has not been consistent enough to match Washington’s clear edge at the plate. I’m backing the Nationals to win as a modest favorite.

Nationals ML-125
CONF
62%
MLB7:00 PM

Guardians @ Reds

Monday night in Cincinnati has thunderstorms in the forecast, and these teams are headed in opposite directions. The Reds return home after winning their series in St. Louis, while Cleveland comes in on a losing streak after failing to score in two straight games. Chase Burns is the difference for me. His overpowering fastball and sharp slider have made him tough to hit, especially for a Cleveland lineup that has barely scored lately. Slade Cecconi has struggled badly in his recent starts, and his pitching style is a poor match against Cincinnati’s best hitters. Spencer Steer’s wrist injury takes a real power bat out of Cincinnati’s lineup, and the weather makes this less predictable, so I do not want to pay a steep price just for a Reds win. I expect Burns to help Cincinnati build an early lead before the relief pitchers take over, so I’m betting the Reds to win by at least two runs.

Reds -1.5+123
CONF
61%
MLB7:10 PM

Braves @ Mets

The lights come on at Citi Field with storms nearby, and these teams are headed in opposite directions. Atlanta is leading the division, while New York is dealing with the pressure of possibly selling off players before the deadline. Zac Thornton’s early results make the Mets tempting, but he has only made a handful of starts, so I’m not ready to trust the rookie. The way he has pitched suggests his results could get worse, especially because opponents have been making plenty of hard contact. Martín Pérez has some risk after struggling with his control in his return, but he still kept the other team from scoring and has handled right-handed hitters well, which helps against New York’s lineup. Ronald Acuña Junior returning to the top of Atlanta’s lineup is the deciding change for me. The Braves also have the better offense, defense, and late-game pitching. I think Atlanta should be a clearer favorite than the price suggests, so I’ll take the Braves to win instead of asking them to win by more than one run on the road.

Braves ML-108
CONF
61%
MLB7:40 PM

Yankees @ White Sox

Storm clouds are hanging over the South Side as two playoff teams begin a four-game series. Chicago has the momentum, but I think New York has the clear pitching edge. Max Fried looked sharp in his return, giving up almost nothing in a scoreless outing, and his overall performance backs that up. Noah Schultz has struggled badly, and his sinker and breaking ball have been especially hittable. The Yankees are without Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, but Paul Goldschmidt and their other right-handed hitters still match up well with Schultz. Chicago had a huge power day Sunday, but that will be tough to repeat against Fried, who rarely gives up solid contact. With New York missing key hitters, I do not want to ask the Yankees to win by multiple runs. Still, I trust Fried and New York’s stronger relief pitchers to finish the job. David Bednar is rested, while Chicago used most of its top late-game pitchers Sunday. I’ll take the Yankees to win.

Yankees ML-144
CONF
63%
MLB7:45 PM

Cubs @ Cardinals

The heat will be heavy at Busch Stadium when the Cubs and Cardinals open their rivalry series. Both starting pitchers can be hit, and neither bullpen is trustworthy, so I’m backing the lineup that keeps putting on more pressure. David Peterson’s rough season and ugly outing against St. Louis earlier this month keep me from betting more, though he has been much better in his last two starts. Matthew Liberatore’s results and overall pitching both look poor. Chicago can load up with right-handed hitters against him, Pete Crow-Armstrong is on a roll, and the Cubs have scored nearly twice as often as the Cardinals lately. Both bullpens have problems, but St. Louis used Ryne Stanek and George Soriano on Sunday, while Riley O’Brien’s illness creates another concern late in the game. Chicago has the deeper lineup and is playing better, but the unpredictable pitching means I don’t need the Cubs to win by multiple runs. I’ll take the Cubs to win outright.

Cubs ML-123
CONF
60%
MLB9:38 PM

Astros @ Angels

The lights are on in Anaheim, and Houston is trying to stay in the playoff race as the trade deadline approaches. The Astros had won four straight before getting blown out Sunday, and I see that loss as a speed bump, not a reason to turn against how well they’ve been playing. Walbert Ureña has done a good job preventing runs lately, but he has also walked too many hitters. Houston’s first three batters have been on fire this past week and have shown plenty of power, while Peña, Alvarez and Paredes all hit hard fastballs and sinking pitches well. Tatsuya Imai is less predictable, but his slider gets swings and misses, and he has been very tough on right-handed hitters. That matters against an Angels lineup loaded with right-handed bats. Houston also has the edge late. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu were both rested Sunday, while the Angels used five relief pitchers and Ryan Zeferjahn pitched for the third straight day. The Astros are also the better defensive team, which could decide such a close matchup. I’m backing Houston to win behind its hotter top hitters and stronger late-game options.

Astros ML-112
CONF
58%
MLB9:40 PM

Red Sox @ Athletics

The lights come on in Sacramento with Boston playing very well in hot, hitter-friendly weather. I’m backing the Red Sox to win. Payton Tolle is the difference for me. His results look legitimate, and he has handled hitters from both sides well. Jack Perkins has pitched better than his record suggests, but his main fastball and cutter have been vulnerable. That is a bad matchup against Willson Contreras and a balanced Boston lineup. I also trust Boston’s relief pitchers more. Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman can finish the game, while the Athletics’ bullpen has been worked hard behind a starter who often has not pitched deep lately. With the heat, the park and Tolle’s workload adding uncertainty, I’d rather simply take Boston to win than ask for a bigger margin.

Red Sox ML-183
CONF
64%
MLB9:45 PM

Brewers @ Giants

The cool marine air will be waiting at Oracle Park as the division-leading Brewers begin their California trip against a Giants team running out of time. Milwaukee has been winning most of its recent games, while San Francisco is dealing with the pressure of the approaching trade deadline. I do not fully trust either starting pitcher, but Milwaukee is better built to handle that uncertainty. Tyler Mahle has struggled badly against right-handed hitters, which is a tough matchup against Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn and the productive bottom of Milwaukee’s lineup. Jung Hoo Lee’s absence also takes an important contact hitter away from San Francisco. If the starters leave early, I trust Milwaukee’s relief pitchers more, and the Brewers also have clear advantages on defense and at preventing runs. Because Oracle Park often keeps games close, I would rather bet on Milwaukee simply to win than ask the Brewers to win by multiple runs. They have played well on the road, score much more often than the Giants and have enough depth to survive a rough inning from Sproat. My bet is the Brewers to win.

Brewers ML-142
CONF
61%

Player props

21
MLB · Mariners @ Rangers

Dominic Canzone

Kumar Rocker suffers extreme platoon splits against left-handed batters, giving up a .277 AVG, .823 OPS, and 9 HR in 202 ABs. Canzone, batting 3rd in the Mariners order as a LHB, is positioned at the heart of the order to exploit this weakness. Furthermore, Canzone excels in day games, hitting .333 with a .994 OPS (29-for-87). Coming off a 3-hit performance in Game 3 that produced 7 total bases, Canzone's matchup against Rocker offers superior upside relative to the +135 price tag.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135
  • · Rocker allows .277 AVG, .823 OPS, and 9 HR in 202 AB vs LHB
  • · Canzone day games split: .333 AVG / .994 OPS (29-for-87)
  • · Break-even probability needed: >42.6% (offered at +135)
MLB · Mariners @ Rangers

Wyatt Langford

Langford is locked in at the plate, batting .341 (14-for-41) over his last 10 games and .348 over his last 7. In this 4-game series against Seattle, he is 5-for-12 with 2 doubles and a home run, surpassing 1.5 total bases in 2 of the 3 games. Batting 2nd in a core featuring Pederson and Nimmo, Langford receives elite protection and consistent opportunity.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125
  • · L10 games: .341 AVG (14-for-41), 3 HR, 7 RBI
  • · L3 series games vs SEA: 5-for-12 with 2 doubles and 1 HR
  • · Break-even probability needed: >44.4% (offered at +125)
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Mitch Keller

Arizona can attack Keller’s vulnerable side with six hitters capable of batting left-handed. He has allowed a .278 average, .822 OPS and 11 home runs to lefties, while the Diamondbacks are averaging 6.3 runs over their last 10 games. Keller has allowed at least three earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and his 5.23 xERA supports another difficult matchup.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-115
MLB · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez has cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games and already has 14 home runs in 37 games. His recent contact has remained loud, with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and three barrels on nine balls in play. Kelly has allowed a 13.5% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate, while his fastball and cutter have both been punished. Valdez gets that matchup from the cleanup spot with the wind moving toward left field.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+126
MLB · Orioles @ Tigers

Hao-Yu Lee

Lee is the Detroit hitter whose recent contact I want to buy. He is 9-for-22 with two homers over the past week and has produced a 95.6 mph average exit velocity, 12 hard-hit balls and three barrels in his recent contact sample. Bradish has allowed right-handed hitters a .249 average and .715 OPS, and the wind blowing toward left field helps Lee’s side. At +170, a double or two singles is enough.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+170
MLB · Phillies @ Marlins

Brandon Marsh

Marsh’s recent results are hiding encouraging contact: nine hard-hit balls and two barrels on his last 16 balls in play, with only a 17% whiff rate. He owns a .307 average and .852 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Tyler Phillips has allowed lefties a .282 average and .810 OPS. Phillips also carries a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and Marsh bats cleanup. One extra-base hit clears this at an attractive plus price.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+137
MLB · Blue Jays @ Nationals

CJ Abrams

This is more than a reaction to Abrams' two-homer game Sunday. He is 15-for-26 with six homers over his last seven games and has cleared 2.5 total bases in eight of his last 14.

OVER 2.5 Total Bases+155
MLB · Blue Jays @ Nationals

George Springer

Springer is the Toronto hitter I want against Washington's opener-and-bulk arrangement. He is batting .343 with a .966 OPS over his last 15 games and has cleared this line nine times in that span.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135
MLB · Braves @ Mets

Martin Perez

I only need two walks from a pitcher who has exceeded this line in seven of his last eight starts. Pérez issued four, two and three walks in his last three outings despite working no more than five innings in any of them. His recent command makes two free passes more likely than this price suggests.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-136
MLB · Braves @ Mets

Tyrone Taylor

Taylor's current production makes this plus-money price too generous. He has five homers in 18 games since returning from the injured list and enters with an extra-base hit in consecutive games. He also owns a .292 average and .872 OPS against lefties. One double or homer clears the line, and Taylor has reached two total bases in eight of his last 13.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+204
MLB · Guardians @ Reds

Edwin Arroyo

Arroyo's .299 expected average is well above his .244 actual mark, and his .285 slugging percentage reflects a hitter whose production is heavily concentrated in singles. He has recorded a single in eight of his last 15 games. Cecconi has allowed a batting average above .280 to hitters from either side and has surrendered 22 hits across his last 13 1/3 innings.

OVER 0.5 Singles+106
MLB · Yankees @ White Sox

Noah Schultz

Schultz has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and his 6.04 ERA is fully supported by a 6.03 xERA. His sinker and sweeper have each allowed an xwOBA above .500, while his overall barrel rate allowed is 10.7%. The Yankees are depleted, but the confirmed lineup still gives Schultz several dangerous right-handed matchups, and righties own an .816 OPS with eight homers against him. Even money is enough in a hitter-friendly park with the wind blowing out.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+100
MLB HR · Yankees @ White Sox

Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt owns a .333 average and 1.066 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, including nine home runs in 111 at-bats. Schultz has surrendered eight homers to right-handed hitters in 174 at-bats, along with a 10.7% barrel rate overall. Goldschmidt has also slugged .784 against four-seam fastballs, Schultz's most-used pitch. With a 16 mph wind blowing toward left field, +450 is a worthwhile price on this specific power matchup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450
MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Ian Happ

This price is too generous for Happ to draw one walk. He has walked in 10 of his last 15 games, owns four career walks against Matthew Liberatore and faces a starter who has issued at least two walks in five of his last eight outings. Chicago averages 4.35 walks per game, and its productive lineup should help Happ receive a fourth plate appearance despite batting seventh.

OVER 0.5 Walks+166
MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Crow-Armstrong is leading off and gets an excellent left-on-left matchup. Liberatore has allowed a .313 average and .910 OPS to left-handed hitters, while Crow-Armstrong owns a .285 average and .861 OPS against lefties. He also has handled two important parts of Liberatore's arsenal, slugging .708 against sliders and .654 against sinkers. His recent form, maximum plate appearances and 99-degree weather with the wind going toward right field make two total bases a strong near-even play.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-105
MLB · Astros @ Angels

Nolan Schanuel

Schanuel is batting .343 over the last 15 days and has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games. His 12% recent whiff rate fits well against Tatsuya Imai, who has allowed left-handed hitters a .259 average and .815 OPS. Batting third should give Schanuel enough chances to turn that contact advantage into one single.

OVER 0.5 Singles-124
MLB · Astros @ Angels

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez has cleared this line in nine of his last 14 games while producing a 95.0 mph average exit velocity and four barrels on 19 recent balls in play. Walbert Urena features a 97.5 mph four-seam and 97.6 mph sinker, and Alvarez owns a .511 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .512 xwOBA against sinkers. Urena's contact suppression adds risk, but Alvarez's current form and pitch fit make the even price playable.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110
MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Payton Tolle

Tolle has 22 strikeouts across 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts, clearing this number each time. His 96-mph fastball, high-whiff curveball and cutter give him multiple put-away options, while Oakland averages 8.66 strikeouts per game. Six is reachable even if Tolle only works five-plus innings, making the near-even price attractive.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-106
MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Willson Contreras

Contreras has exceeded 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 14 games and enters this matchup 7-for-19 over his last seven. Jack Perkins has allowed a .279 average and .825 OPS to right-handed hitters, with especially vulnerable four-seam and cutter results. Contreras handles premium velocity, is batting third and will also get later opportunities against a taxed Oakland bullpen in favorable hitting weather.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-114
MLB · Brewers @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Sproat has issued nine walks over just 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts, and he has exceeded 1.5 walks in six of his last eight. Devers has walked in nine of his last 15 games and is the hitter Sproat has the most incentive to approach carefully. Batting cleanup also gives Devers a good chance at four plate appearances. At plus money, I like the combination of his patience and Sproat's recent command trouble.

OVER 0.5 Walks+126
MLB · Brewers @ Giants

Brice Turang

Turang owns a .295 average and .923 OPS against right-handed pitching, and he enters this matchup batting third after going 8-for-22 over his last seven games. Mahle throws his four-seam fastball nearly half the time, while Turang has slugged .482 against that pitch. Turang has cleared this line in seven of his last 15, and his lineup position gives him paths through either one extra-base hit or a multi-hit game.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

Hub research

152

Graded results

31

Games

  • W

    Red Sox ML -183

    MLB · 4-2

  • W

    Yankees ML -144

    MLB · 9-5

  • W

    Cubs ML -123

    MLB · 7-3

  • W

    Astros ML -112

    MLB · 6-4

  • L

    Brewers ML -142

    MLB · 0-3

  • L

    Diamondbacks ML +102

    MLB · 2-3

  • L

    Tigers ML -120

    MLB · 8-5

  • L

    Phillies -1.5 -113

    MLB · 7-8

  • L

    Nationals ML -125

    MLB · 3-2

  • L

    Braves ML -108

    MLB · 3-14

  • L

    Seattle Mariners ML -131

    MLB · 3-7

Props

  • L

    Brandon Marsh · over

    Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0

  • L

    Brice Turang · over

    Brewers @ Giants · Actual 0

  • L

    CJ Abrams · over

    Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 0

  • L

    Dominic Canzone · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 1

  • L

    Esmerlyn Valdez · over

    Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0

  • L

    George Springer · over

    Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 1

  • L

    Hao-Yu Lee · over

    Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 1

  • W

    Ian Happ · over

    Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1

  • L

    Martin Perez · over

    Braves @ Mets · Actual 1

  • L

    Mitch Keller · over

    Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 2

  • W

    Noah Schultz · over

    Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 3

  • L

    Nolan Schanuel · over

    Astros @ Angels · Actual 0

  • L

    Paul Goldschmidt · over

    Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0

  • W

    Payton Tolle · over

    Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 7

  • L

    Pete Crow-Armstrong · over

    Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 0

  • W

    Rafael Devers · over

    Brewers @ Giants · Actual 1

  • W

    Tyrone Taylor · over

    Braves @ Mets · Actual 6

  • L

    Willson Contreras · over

    Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 0

  • L

    Wyatt Langford · over

    Mariners @ Rangers · Actual 0

  • L

    Yordan Alvarez · over

    Astros @ Angels · Actual 1