Braves at Mets
O/U 8.5 · RL Braves -1.5
Braves ML-108
CONF 61%
LLostFinal 3-14
The read
The lights come on at Citi Field with storms nearby, and these teams are headed in opposite directions. Atlanta is leading the division, while New York is dealing with the pressure of possibly selling off players before the deadline.
Zac Thornton’s early results make the Mets tempting, but he has only made a handful of starts, so I’m not ready to trust the rookie. The way he has pitched suggests his results could get worse, especially because opponents have been making plenty of hard contact. Martín Pérez has some risk after struggling with his control in his return, but he still kept the other team from scoring and has handled right-handed hitters well, which helps against New York’s lineup.
Ronald Acuña Junior returning to the top of Atlanta’s lineup is the deciding change for me. The Braves also have the better offense, defense, and late-game pitching. I think Atlanta should be a clearer favorite than the price suggests, so I’ll take the Braves to win instead of asking them to win by more than one run on the road.
The full analysis
Zac Thornton’s 1.93 ERA makes the Mets tempting, but four starts are not enough for me to buy the rookie at face value. His 4.21 expected ERA and 12.5% barrel rate point toward regression. Martín Pérez carries risk after walking four in his return, but he still delivered four scoreless innings and has held right-handed hitters to a .646 OPS, useful against New York’s righty-heavy order.
Ronald Acuña Jr. returning at the top of Atlanta’s lineup is the decisive same-day change. Add the Braves’ stronger offense, defense and late-inning staff, and I make them better than the near-coin-flip price despite Thornton’s early success. I’ll take Atlanta to win at -108 rather than ask for the extra run on the road.
Props on this game
2Martin PerezOVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks Pitcher Walks-136
LActual 1
I only need two walks from a pitcher who has exceeded this line in seven of his last eight starts. Pérez issued four, two and three walks in his last three outings despite working no more than five innings in any of them. His recent command makes two free passes more likely than this price suggests.
Tyrone TaylorOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+204
WActual 6
Taylor's current production makes this plus-money price too generous. He has five homers in 18 games since returning from the injured list and enters with an extra-base hit in consecutive games. He also owns a .292 average and .872 OPS against lefties. One double or homer clears the line, and Taylor has reached two total bases in eight of his last 13.
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