Sports Picks Archive — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -167

The split doubleheader gets underway at Great American Ball Park with a pronounced starting-pitching edge in the opener. I’m backing Cincinnati to win Game 1, but I’m not asking the Reds to cover a run and a half. Chase Burns is the separator. He owns a 2.42 ERA, a .276 expected wOBA allowed and a slider generating a 52.3% whiff rate. Cleveland has scored three total runs while losing its last three games, and Slade Cecconi enters with an 11.00 ERA over his last three starts. His sinker has allowed a .365 average, while Cincinnati has several hitters equipped to punish that pitch and his heavily used cutter. The doubleheader and Cincinnati’s shaky bullpen make Reds -1.5 too aggressive, especially with Burns generally working only five or six innings. Cleveland’s stronger late-inning group can keep the margin tight, but Burns gives the Reds the best chance to lead when the bullpens take over. The price is substantial but playable: Reds moneyline -167.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Diamondbacks· -115

PNC Park gets another game with October weight in July, and Pittsburgh can clinch the season tiebreaker after Monday night’s walk-off. With both clubs 55-52 and the deadline three days away, this is less about momentum than which side is better built for tonight’s specific matchup. I give Bubba Chandler the starting-pitching edge. His 4.01 xERA is better than his 4.47 ERA, his 98.6 mph four-seamer and 90.3 mph slider both miss bats, and he just held the Yankees scoreless for 6 1/3 innings. Arizona’s left-handed bats are the danger, but Brandon Pfaadt presents the more direct weakness: lefties own an .856 OPS against him, and Pittsburgh can attack him with Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn, Jacob Gonzalez and its switch-hitters ahead of a cleared Esmerlyn Valdez. The late innings also lean Pittsburgh. Mason Montgomery likely needs a night off, but Gregory Soto remains available; Arizona is thinner in leverage after Jonathan Loáisiga worked on consecutive days, and its closer situation is less secure. Chandler’s occasional short leash keeps this from being a heavy play, but at a near pick’em price I make the home side the right favorite. My bet is Pirates moneyline -115.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -144

The deadline clock is ticking, and Comerica Park hosts two clubs trying to keep their postseason cases alive. Baltimore took the opener, but tonight’s pitching matchup gives Detroit a strong chance to answer. Troy Melton owns a 1.95 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP, and the underlying 3.21 xERA still compares favorably with Dean Kremer’s 4.67 mark. Melton’s power cutter and slider have held hitters from both sides below a .180 average, a difficult assignment for an Orioles lineup missing its top two catchers. Kremer has been vulnerable to left-handed bats, which sets up Kevin McGonigle, Riley Greene, Colt Keith and Zach McKinstry to do damage. Detroit also has Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan rested after its middle relief absorbed Monday’s workload. I expect Melton to control the early innings and give that fresh back end a lead to protect. I’m backing the Tigers on the moneyline at -144.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· -129

The roof is closed in Miami, and Tuesday’s rematch centers on whether Aaron Nola can contain a left-handed Marlins stack. Miami finally ended its 12-game skid with Monday’s walk-off, and now Sandy Alcantara gets the ball with trade-deadline noise surrounding him. The starting-pitching gap favors Miami. Alcantara owns a 3.77 xERA, has completed at least six innings in each of his past three starts and has allowed a low 5.6% barrel rate. Nola carries a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while both of his fastballs have allowed a .368 xwOBA. That is dangerous against a Miami lineup featuring seven left-handed or switch hitters, especially when lefties have produced an .881 OPS against him. Philadelphia can threaten Alcantara through Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, but Kyle Schwarber’s same-day illness scratch thins the lineup, and J.T. Realmuto is also absent from the starting nine. Miami’s bullpen keeps me away from the run line, but Alcantara’s ability to work deep reduces that exposure. I’ll take the Marlins moneyline at -129.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rays· -148

Two division leaders meet under the dome, with Tampa Bay rested after a sweep and Texas carrying a fresh power surge into the opener. The Rays have been dominant at home, but this price asks them to create separation against a Rangers lineup seeing the ball well. Griffin Jax owns a respectable 3.89 ERA, but his 5.06 xERA, 39.9% hard-hit rate and weaker results against left-handed bats leave room for Texas to answer. The Rangers can send Joc Pederson, Brandon Nimmo, Evan Carter, Nicky Lopez and Josh Smith at him from the left side, while Pederson, Wyatt Langford, Ezequiel Duran and Nimmo have all been productive lately. Tropicana Field’s run suppression also increases the value of having an extra run in hand. Cal Quantrill’s trouble against lefties and Tampa Bay’s rested bullpen keep me away from the Texas moneyline. Still, the Rays must win by multiple runs to beat us, and Jax has not pitched well enough beneath the surface for me to lay that condition. I’ll take Rangers +1.5 at -148.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -144

Storm clouds are gathering over Nationals Park, where Washington looks to answer after dropping a tight opener. With both clubs navigating deadline noise and taxed bullpens, the starting-pitching matchup carries extra weight tonight. Cade Cavalli has completed six innings in three straight starts, allowing four earned runs with 22 strikeouts across that span. More importantly, his 3.96 xERA and 6.6% barrel rate support his season performance. Shane Bieber has also pitched well lately, but his 7.26 xERA, 46.9% hard-hit rate and 11.2% barrel rate point to considerably more risk against a Washington lineup featuring James Wood, Luis García Jr., Dylan Crews and a scorching C.J. Abrams. Toronto needed six relievers to protect Monday’s one-run win, while Washington has fresh closer Clayton Beeter available and should get length from Cavalli. The Nationals own the stronger offense, the more reliable starter and enough late-inning coverage to justify the price. I’m taking Washington on the moneyline at -144.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -149

Night settles over Great American Ball Park with Cleveland looking to sweep Tuesday’s split doubleheader. The nightcap comes down to which club can cover innings, and Gavin Williams gives the Guardians a decisive advantage over Cincinnati’s bullpen game. Williams has struck out 33 over his last 20 innings, including seven scoreless frames against Minnesota in his latest start. His four-seamer and sweeper have each held opponents below a .250 xwOBA, and his ability to work deep matters after Cleveland used Cade Smith, Colin Holderman and Hunter Gaddis this afternoon. Caleb Ferguson is only an opener, and Cincinnati already used four relievers in Game 1. That creates difficult middle innings for a Reds bullpen carrying a 4.52 team ERA. I’m laying the -149 with Cleveland on the moneyline. José Ramírez and Chase DeLauter both hit left-handed pitching well, Steven Kwan is setting the table consistently, and the Guardians should get multiple opportunities against Cincinnati’s relief depth. Williams’ home-run risk in this park and Cleveland’s reduced late-inning availability keep me away from the run line, but the straight-up pitching edge is worth the price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Royals· +113

It’s a hot night at Target Field, with two clubs riding modest winning streaks into an important AL Central opener. Kansas City has made a habit of keeping games close, but Minnesota owns the matchup advantages that can finally create some separation. Taj Bradley’s best weapons line up well against a Royals order featuring six left-handed or switch hitters. He has held lefties to a .202 average, while his cutter and splitter have generated strong swing-and-miss results. Kansas City is also without Bobby Witt Jr., and Bradley has the durability to get this game into the hands of Minnesota’s rested late-inning relievers. Seth Lugo has pitched better lately, but his 5.44 xERA, elevated hard-contact rate and vulnerability against left-handed bats remain concerning. Minnesota can stack Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens and its switch hitters around Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers, then press its bullpen advantage late. Rather than pay -181 on the moneyline, I’ll take the plus price and lay the run and a half: Twins -1.5 (+113).

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -125

Tuesday night baseball at Rate Field, where the wind is carrying toward right and the AL Central leaders are trying to answer Monday’s 9–5 punch. Gerrit Cole and Anthony Kay get the ball with both clubs playing meaningful games three days before the deadline. The handedness tilts this toward New York. Chicago’s lineup is heavily left-handed against Cole, who has limited lefties to a .205 average and .673 OPS. He has worked 7.0, 6.0 and 6.1 innings in his last three starts. Kay has allowed right-handed hitters an .845 OPS and 12 home runs, and New York can attack him with several right-handed bats, including Paul Goldschmidt, who owns a 1.066 OPS against lefties. Kay has worked 5.0, 4.0 and 5.1 innings in his last three starts, putting pressure on a Chicago bullpen that used Chris Murphy, Trevor Richards, Bryan Hudson, Sean Newcomb and Seranthony Domínguez on Monday. New York’s bullpen carries workload concerns too, but Cole gives it a better chance to avoid the soft spots. With Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger absent, I want no part of the run line. The moneyline is the better way to back the starting-pitching advantage, so my bet is Yankees moneyline at -125.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -115

Tuesday night at Busch Stadium, the Cubs look to press their advantage after taking the opener 7-3. Chicago has won three of four and is scoring 6.4 runs per game over the past two weeks, while St. Louis has dropped eight of ten. Michael McGreevy’s 3.07 ERA looks reassuring, but his 5.48 xERA, 42.2% hard-hit rate and declining whiff rate point toward regression. Chicago has the deeper lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong rolling, Michael Busch swinging well and Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner coming off four-hit nights. Colin Rea is vulnerable, particularly against lefties, but Alec Burleson is the only Cardinals hitter carrying consistently strong recent form. The late innings also lean Chicago. Jacob Webb is available, while St. Louis is without Hunter Dobbins after his 85-pitch relief outing and may not have closer Riley O’Brien. Rea’s volatility keeps me off the run line, but Chicago is the better club with the hotter lineup and more dependable path through nine innings. My bet is Cubs moneyline at -115.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

SLADE CECCONIPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -110

I’m playing Cecconi’s contact profile rather than focusing only on his ERA. He has allowed 7, 6 and 9 hits in his last three starts, totaling 22 across 13 1/3 innings. Lefties and righties are both batting above .280 against him, while his sinker has been hit at a .365 clip. Cincinnati has enough favorable matchups throughout the confirmed lineup, and the doubleheader gives Cleveland added incentive to seek innings from Cecconi. Six hits at this price is playable.

GARY'S PICK

NATHANIEL LOWETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +138

Lowe’s strengths line up with the pitches Cecconi uses most. Cecconi throws his cutter and sinker nearly half the time; Lowe owns a .441 xwOBA against cutters and a .379 xwOBA against sinkers. He also has an .859 OPS against right-handed pitching, a .905 OPS in day games and eight hits with two homers over his last 25 at-bats. An extra-base hit or two singles gets us there, and Great American Ball Park helps the power route.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -123

Moreno is 16-for-40 over his last 15 days and has cleared this combination in 11 of his last 15 games. Chandler throws his four-seamer almost half the time, and Moreno owns a .333 average, .569 slugging percentage and .491 expected wOBA against four-seamers this season. Hitting third gives him both RBI opportunities and strong protection behind him.

GARY'S PICK

GERALDO PERDOMOWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -113

Perdomo has drawn a walk in 10 of his last 15 games, and his recent 16% chase rate and 9% whiff rate show how well he is controlling the zone. Chandler has allowed at least two walks in six of his last eight starts. Batting second should give Perdomo four or five chances to work one at close to even money.

GARY'S PICK

RILEY GREENETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -105

Kremer has allowed left-handed hitters a .270 average, .935 OPS and seven home runs in 74 at-bats. Greene owns a .307 average and .897 OPS against right-handers, while his recent results undersell six barrels across 21 balls in play. The wind blowing toward right field adds another boost, and this line can cash with a double or two hits rather than requiring a home run.

GARY'S PICK

SANDY ALCANTARAPITCHER OUTS OVER 18.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +145

This price is paying me to ask Alcantara for one out in the seventh. He has worked seven, six and seven innings in his last three starts, clearing 18.5 outs in five of his last eight. His season workload averages 19.6 outs per start, and he still completed seven innings after allowing nine hits and five runs at Houston. Philadelphia is without Kyle Schwarber tonight and is also resting J.T. Realmuto, weakening the lineup around its dangerous top three. With Miami's bullpen moderately taxed and Michael Petersen sidelined, Alcantara should get every opportunity to pitch deep.

GARY'S PICK

GRIFFIN CONINEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -138

Conine has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games, and this matchup lines up well beyond Monday's homer and walk-off single. He owns a .279 average and .955 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Nola has allowed lefties to hit .279 with an .881 OPS. Nola uses his four-seam fastball and sinker on roughly 43% of his pitches, and Conine has handled those offerings well, including a .438 xwOBA against sinkers. His recent 94.4 mph average exit velocity and 11 hard-hit balls on 16 balls in play support another hit.

GARY'S PICK

GRIFFIN JAXPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +125

Jax’s contact profile is considerably worse than his 3.89 ERA suggests: he has a 5.06 xERA, a .343 expected wOBA allowed and a 39.9% hard-hit rate. Texas is averaging 5.1 runs over its last 10 games, with the top of the order producing consistent traffic. Jax has allowed at least five hits in four of his last eight starts, and this plus-money price is too generous for a threshold he can clear within five innings.

GARY'S PICK

JONATHAN ARANDASINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -115

Aranda gets the matchup I want for a one-single prop. He has a .295 average and .882 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Quantrill has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .296 with an .875 OPS. Quantrill uses his sinker 31.3% of the time, and Aranda is batting .383 against that pitch. Batting second gives him ample opportunities, and he has recorded a single in nine of his last 15 games.

GARY'S PICK

CJ ABRAMSH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +140

Abrams has cleared three combined hits, runs and RBIs in nine of his last 15 games, producing 20 hits, seven homers and 15 RBIs during that stretch. He hits cleanup behind James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr. and Dylan Crews, giving him RBI traffic, while one homer gets this over by itself. Bieber's last two starts were sharp, but his .399 expected wOBA allowed, 46.9% hard-hit rate and vulnerable four-seamer remain a dangerous fit against a left-handed hitter who has slugged .653 off four-seamers. With the wind carrying toward right field, I make three-plus more likely than this +140 price implies.

GARY'S PICK

CADE CAVALLIK'S OVER 5.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +235

Toronto's contact-heavy profile explains the low primary strikeout line, but the price on Cavalli reaching six is too generous. He has 127 strikeouts in 110 2/3 innings, has recorded at least six in four of his last eight starts and has completed six innings in each of his last three. Washington's tired bullpen also gives him a path to another full workload, while his curveball's 38.1% whiff rate supplies a legitimate finishing pitch. The thunderstorm threat is a meaningful risk for any pitcher over, but +235 pays enough for me to accept it.

GARY'S PICK

TAJ BRADLEYPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -132

Bradley has issued at least two walks in six of his last eight starts, including totals of two, three and three in his last three. Kansas City has several hitters capable of extending counts, and Bradley's recent ability to pitch deep gives him enough time to reach this number. I make two-plus walks more likely than the price suggests.

GARY'S PICK

SETH LUGOPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +102

Lugo has gone over this line in six of his last eight starts and has issued exactly two walks in each of his last three. His sinker and cutter have generated low chase rates, which can create longer counts against a Minnesota lineup averaging 3.3 walks per game. With Lugo working as a conventional, unrestricted starter, plus money on two walks is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDTTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +118

Goldschmidt owns a .333 average and 1.066 OPS against left-handed pitching, and he gets a favorable matchup with Anthony Kay allowing a .276 average and .845 OPS to right-handed hitters. Batting leadoff should give him maximum opportunities, and his combination of contact and power makes two total bases attractive at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

ANTHONY VOLPESINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +115

Kay has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .276 with an .845 OPS, giving Volpe a favorable path to a hit. Volpe has recorded a single in nine of his last 15, and his modest .333 season slugging percentage shows how heavily his production leans toward singles. I like getting plus money on one here.

GARY'S PICK

COLIN REAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -106

Rea has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts, and his 5.59 xERA is even worse than his 4.85 ERA. St. Louis is starting five left-handed hitters against a pitcher allowing a .298 average to that side. Rea's four-seamer and sinker have produced .406 and .470 xwOBA marks, respectively. I like the Cardinals to get three before he exits.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL BUSCHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -120

Busch is batting third after going 15-for-45 over the last 15 days, and he has cleared this combination in 10 of his last 15. McGreevy's 3.07 ERA is backed by a 5.48 xERA, a .355 expected wOBA and a 42.2% hard-hit rate. Busch also has two homers in eight career at-bats against him. A solo homer clears this outright, while one hit plus a run or RBI is enough in a favorable lineup position.

THE LONG SHOT

ELLY DE LA CRUZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +575

This price carries a break-even rate of roughly 15%, and Elly’s power profile gives me room above that. He has 10 homers in 155 home at-bats, 13 in 191 night at-bats and five over his last 15 games. The recent contact supports the results: a 93.2 mph average exit velocity with four barrels on 19 balls in play. Great American Ball Park adds another power boost, and Cleveland already used Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Colin Holderman in the afternoon game. Even if Gavin Williams handles the early innings, Elly should get later chances against a reshuffled bullpen.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +900

This price is too long for Conine against Aaron Nola. Nola has allowed 25 homers, including 15 to left-handed hitters, with a 10.4% barrel rate and a fly-ball lean. Conine owns a .955 OPS with seven homers in 86 at-bats against righties, and his recent contact has been loud. He homered Monday, and Nola's vulnerable four-seam and sinker fit pitches Conine has driven well. Batting sixth costs him some plate-appearance equity, but +900 more than compensates.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +400

Quantrill has handled right-handed hitters overall, but his pitch mix presents a dangerous matchup for Caminero. Junior owns a .633 slugging percentage against sinkers and a .720 mark against four-seamers, the two fastballs Quantrill throws most often. Caminero also has 17 home runs at home and bats third, giving him a strong chance at four plate appearances. Even accounting for the pitcher-friendly park, +400 is long enough for his power profile.

THE LONG SHOT

RYAN JEFFERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +499

Jeffers is batting third and has homered in four of his last 15 games. He owns a .462 average and .885 slugging percentage against sinkers, while Seth Lugo’s sinker has produced a .505 xwOBA with only a 10.6% whiff rate. Lugo has also allowed eight homers in 159 at-bats against right-handed hitters, and his 5.44 xERA suggests more damage is coming. Jeffers’ strong home and night splits make +499 too long.

THE LONG SHOT

DILLON DINGLERHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +650

Dingler has the power profile I want at this price. He has 22 homers, a .528 slugging percentage and an excellent .933 OPS against right-handed pitching. He also enters with three homers over his past seven games and bats cleanup, maximizing his RBI opportunities and likely plate appearances. Kremer has been vulnerable when his sinker or cutter catches too much plate, and Dingler has already taken him deep in their limited history. Comerica Park adds risk, but +650 more than compensates.

THE LONG SHOT

JAMES WOODHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +320

I’m backing Wood despite Bieber’s excellent results over his last two starts. Bieber’s underlying contact profile remains vulnerable: a 7.26 xERA, .399 opponent xwOBA and 11.2% barrel rate allowed. His 92.3 mph four-seamer has produced a .396 xwOBA, and Wood has punished four-seamers for a .445 xwOBA and .716 slugging percentage. Wood also has four barrels in 22 recent balls in play and gets the plate-appearance advantage from the leadoff spot. At +320, I see enough matchup and batted-ball upside to take the swing.

THE LONG SHOT

ENDY RODRIGUEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +800

Rodriguez gets the favorable side of Pfaadt’s pronounced platoon split. Left-handed hitters have a .304 average and .856 OPS against Pfaadt with seven home runs in 138 at-bats, while Rodriguez has produced a .313 average, .996 OPS and all five of his homers against right-handed pitching. He has also slugged .719 against four-seam fastballs, a pitch Pfaadt throws frequently without generating many whiffs. Batting seventh and playing at PNC Park lower the volume, but +800 requires only an 11.1% hit rate and gives me enough compensation for those concerns.

THE LONG SHOT

NATHANIEL LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +650

Lowe has hit all 12 of his home runs against right-handed pitching, including nine at home. Gavin Williams has allowed an 11.5% barrel rate and 20 homers, while his sinker and cutter have been his most vulnerable offerings. Lowe handles both pitches well, and the wind blowing toward right field at Great American Ball Park makes +650 too generous for Cincinnati's cleanup hitter.

THE LONG SHOT

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDTHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +600

Goldschmidt gets the platoon advantage and the leadoff spot against Anthony Kay. He has nine homers in 111 at-bats against lefties this season with a 1.066 OPS, while Kay has allowed right-handed hitters an .845 OPS and 12 homers in 275 at-bats. Kay’s vulnerable sinker-cutter portion of the arsenal, a hitter-friendly park and a 15 mph wind blowing out give Goldschmidt enough paths to cash at an oversized +600.

THE LONG SHOT

RILEY GREENEHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +525

I’m targeting Kremer’s pronounced trouble with left-handed hitters. They have produced a .935 OPS with seven home runs in 74 at-bats against him, and Greene has generated six barrels on 21 recent balls in play despite modest surface results. He also matches up well with Kremer’s fastball and sinker, carrying a .380 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .393 mark against sinkers. Batting third with the wind moving toward right field gives Greene enough paths to capitalize at +525.

THE LONG SHOT

JONATHAN ARANDAHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +700

Quantrill's clear vulnerability is left-handed power: lefties have produced a .296 average and .875 OPS against him, with five home runs in 108 at-bats. Aranda has hit 13 of his 14 homers against right-handed pitching, owns a .550 slugging percentage against sinkers and has gone deep nine times at home. Batting second adds plate-appearance value, and +700 more than compensates for the park.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +650

This is a price play rather than a broad fade of Sandy Alcantara. Harper has three homers and a 1.021 OPS in 44 career at-bats against him. Alcantara relies heavily on his four-seam and sinker, and Harper has produced a .451 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .411 xwOBA against sinkers this season. Alcantara limits barrels well, but he surrendered three homers in his last start, and Harper batting third should get enough chances for +650 to carry value despite his recent slump.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +500

Stewart owns a .680 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs and a .511 mark against sinkers, two pitches Williams throws more than 40% of the time. Williams has surrendered nine homers in only 175 at-bats against right-handed hitters, and Stewart brings 21-homer power into the favorable conditions at Great American Ball Park. Batting second as the designated hitter should also secure him four plate appearances.

THE LONG SHOT

TREVOR LARNACHHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +487

Larnach gets maximum plate-appearance potential from the leadoff spot and matches up well with Lugo’s fastball-heavy approach. He is slugging .529 against four-seamers and .564 against sinkers, the two pitches responsible for Lugo’s highest xwOBA marks. Larnach is 10-for-27 with two homers over his last 15 days, and the wind blowing toward right field helps his pull-side power. I make his home-run probability better than the roughly 17% implied by +487.

THE LONG SHOT

YANDY DIAZHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +800

Diaz's recent power line is quiet, but this price discounts how different he has been at Tropicana Field. He has 11 home runs with a 1.018 OPS at home, and his leadoff assignment maximizes his opportunities. Quantrill has an extreme fly-ball profile and his heavily used cutter has allowed a .418 xwOBA. At +800, Diaz does not need to be the most likely Rays hitter to homer for the wager to carry value.

THE LONG SHOT

MUNETAKA MURAKAMIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +260

Murakami has the power profile I want against Gerrit Cole’s fly-ball tendencies. He owns a .998 OPS with 18 homers in 171 at-bats against right-handed pitching, and his recent contact has been loud: a 96.6 mph average exit velocity with five barrels on 17 balls in play. Cole has surrendered nine homers to lefties in 156 at-bats, and Murakami matches well with his primary four-seam fastball. With the wind carrying toward right field, I’ll take the hot left-handed slugger at +260.

THE LONG SHOT

BYRON BUXTONHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +290

Buxton’s recent 4-for-23 line hides nine hard-hit balls across 18 balls in play. He has a .633 slugging percentage against four-seamers and a .536 mark against sinkers, matching him with the two weakest parts of Lugo’s arsenal. Buxton has been especially dangerous at Target Field and at night, posting a .957 home OPS and a 1.066 night OPS. The underlying contact and favorable pitching matchup give me enough value at +290.

Research

166

BULLPENCOL @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego's bullpen has covered 16.7 innings in three games, with four relievers making multiple appearances. That workload makes a clean, fully available late-game plan less likely tonight.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CIN
Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Reds are 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts this season — winners of his last 7 in a row. He starts tonight.
TEAM RECORDKC @ MIN
Twins 7-1 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts
Minnesota has won seven of Taj Bradley's last eight starts. That form supports the Twins tonight, though Kansas City's 5-2 season-series edge keeps this from being an automatic play.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ DET
Tigers 7-1 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Detroit is 7-1 across Troy Melton's last eight starts and has won the last four. I won't treat pitcher team records as predictive by themselves, but the Tigers have consistently converted his outings into wins.
PLATOON EDGENYY @ CHW
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Paul Goldschmidt owns a 1.066 OPS against lefties and gets Anthony Kay from the leadoff spot. That's an ideal setup for his hits, runs or total-bases markets.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ CIN
Guardians are 6-1 vs Reds this season
Cleveland has taken six of seven from Cincinnati this season. Combined with the Reds' 2-6 record in Caleb Ferguson's last eight starts, the matchup history points toward the Guardians again.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ WSH
CJ Abrams: 1.535 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams is scorching hot with a 1.535 OPS over his last 43 plate appearances. With a 1.5 total-bases line, his current power and extra-base-hit form put the over firmly on my radar.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ WSH
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Cade Cavalli (RHP)
Nathan Lukes has an .807 OPS against righties compared with .358 against lefties. Batting second against Cade Cavalli gives him the matchup and plate-appearance volume I want for a hitter prop.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
PARK WEATHERNYY @ CHW
Wind blowing out 17 mph at Rate Field tonight
The 17 mph wind blowing out to right is a real counterweight to the Yankees' six-game under streak. At a total of 8, I would be careful about paying for the recent unders in hitter-friendly conditions.
P final total 5 vs 8 (over lean)
STREAKNYY @ CHW
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Six straight Yankees games have stayed under, averaging only 6.5 combined runs. Tonight's total is down to 8, and the 17 mph wind blowing out keeps me from blindly extending that streak.
P final total 5 vs 8
PLATOON EDGECHC @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Colin Rea (RHP)
Alec Burleson's .960 OPS against righties towers over his .505 mark against lefties. Hitting third against Colin Rea puts Burleson in one of the night's cleaner platoon spots.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Shane Bieber
Starts tonight for TOR — 7.21 xERA behind a 4.7 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
STREAKHOU @ LAA
LAA games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Angels games have stayed under six straight while producing only 4.5 runs per night. An 8.5 total still leaves room for another under, although the recent run has already made the market more alert.
P final total 5 vs 8
PARK WEATHERBAL @ DET
Wind blowing out 17 mph at Comerica Park tonight
A 17 mph wind blowing toward right field gives hitters a meaningful boost at Comerica Park. With the total at 9.25 and Baltimore's bullpen carrying a recent workload, I see more upside than usual for offense.
P final total 14 vs 9.25 (over lean)
BULLPENNYY @ CHW
New York Yankees pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Yankees have asked their bullpen for 14.3 innings over the last three games, with five arms appearing more than once. Gerrit Cole working deep would help, but any early exit could expose that fatigue.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ SF
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.923 OPS, 278 AB) sits well above his .574 mark the other way (108 AB). Tonight's starter Landen Roupp throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ CHW
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Gerrit Cole (RHP)
Sam Antonacci has an .866 OPS against right-handers and leads off against Gerrit Cole. The matchup with Cole is difficult, but Antonacci's platoon split and likely plate-appearance volume keep him relevant for modest hitter props.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BULLPENPHI @ MIA
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Philadelphia's relievers have logged 15.3 innings in three games, with four arms used multiple times. That adds late-game risk to a Phillies side already carrying a poor recent record behind Aaron Nola.
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIA
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper brings a .982 OPS against right-handers into his matchup with Sandy Alcantara. Batting third, with strong career numbers against Alcantara as well, makes Harper one of Philadelphia's best prop targets.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CIN
Reds 2-6 in Caleb Ferguson's last 8 starts
Cincinnati is 2-6 in Caleb Ferguson's last eight starts. Cleveland's 6-1 season-series advantage strengthens the case for a Guardians side or moneyline look.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ MIA
Phillies 2-6 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts
Philadelphia has lost five straight Aaron Nola starts and is just 2-6 over his last eight. With the bullpen also worked hard, I need a compelling price before backing the Phillies tonight.
TEAM RECORDARI @ PIT
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Arizona is 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last eight starts and has won his last five. That is solid support for the Diamondbacks, especially with Bryan Reynolds entering in poor form.
TEAM RECORDTEX @ TB
Rangers 2-6 in Cal Quantrill's last 8 starts
Texas is only 2-6 in Cal Quantrill's last eight starts. Tampa Bay has some cold bats, but the Rangers' recent inability to turn Quantrill outings into wins is still a mark against them.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CIN
Guardians 2-6 in Slade Cecconi's last 8 starts
Guardians are 2-6 in Slade Cecconi's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ CIN
Guardians are 5-1 vs Reds this season
Guardians lead the season series 5-1 over Reds. CLE won the last meeting 10-3.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ SD
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Mickey Moniak owns a .935 OPS against right-handers and bats second against Michael King. Even in a game carrying an under trend, that platoon edge gives Moniak individual prop appeal.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ DET
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Troy Melton (RHP), batting 1st
Dylan Beavers gets his preferred side against right-hander Troy Melton and bats first. A .737 OPS in the split is not dominant, but the leadoff volume makes him more interesting for a hit or runs market.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEKC @ MIN
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Seth Lugo (RHP)
Over 240 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .873 OPS versus .602 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Seth Lugo tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ MIA
Trea Turner: 1.125 OPS in Last 15 Days
Trea Turner has a 1.125 OPS over his last 40 plate appearances and excellent career numbers against Sandy Alcantara. Over 1.5 total bases is worth a close look while both the current form and matchup history point the same way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKCOL @ SD
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Colorado has played five straight unders, but those games were lined far higher than tonight's 8. The lower number and San Diego's taxed bullpen make this a tougher under to chase.
P final total 15 vs 8
PLATOON EDGETOR @ WSH
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr. has an .898 OPS against righties and gets Shane Bieber from the second spot. Bieber's expected numbers indicate regression risk, making Garcia a strong Washington hitter to consider.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
SITUATIONALBOS @ OAK
16.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Oakland's bullpen has absorbed 16.3 innings in three games, three more than Boston's over that span. If the Athletics' starter cannot provide length, Boston should have favorable scoring chances late.
P flagged side won 3-4
SITUATIONALCOL @ SD
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
San Diego relievers have worked 16.7 innings in three games compared with only 9.3 for Colorado. That gap gives the Rockies a potential late-game advantage despite San Diego's 6-3 season-series lead.
P flagged side won 7-8
HEAT CHECKCOL @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.230 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 28 PA: a 1.230 OPS versus .620 for the season, 0.61 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATGuardians @ Reds
Elly De La Cruz
Gary's Take This price carries a break-even rate of roughly 15%, and Elly’s power profile gives me room above that. He has 10 homers in 155 home at-bats, 13 in 191 night at-bats and five over his last 15 games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ MIA
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 5th against Aaron Nola (RHP)
Over 256 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .877 OPS versus .508 in 72 AB the other way. He sees RHP Aaron Nola tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ SD
Padres are 6-3 vs Rockies this season
San Diego has won six of nine against Colorado this season. The Padres deserve the matchup edge, but their heavily used bullpen leaves the door open if this stays close into the later innings.
HEAD-TO-HEADKC @ MIN
Royals are 5-2 vs Twins this season
Kansas City leads Minnesota 5-2 in the season series and won the most recent meeting. Taj Bradley's strong team record creates a genuine conflict, so I see price as more important than either trend alone.
HR THREATPhillies @ Marlins
Griffin Conine
Gary's Take This is my favorite long-ball price against Aaron Nola. Nola has surrendered 25 homers in 108.1 innings, including six over his last three starts, while allowing a 10.4% barrel rate.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ DET
Orioles are 4-1 vs Tigers this season
Baltimore has won four of five against Detroit this season, including an 8-5 victory in the latest meeting. The Orioles have the matchup history, though the wind and their worked bullpen add volatility tonight.
COOLING OFFNYY @ CHW
Trent Grisham: .310 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay
Trent Grisham has managed only a .310 OPS over his last 36 plate appearances and now draws a lefty, his weaker split. I would rather look under on his production than bet on an immediate rebound.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENBAL @ DET
Baltimore Orioles pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings in three games, with four relievers working multiple times. Combined with the wind blowing out at Comerica, that workload raises Detroit's late-inning scoring ceiling.
SITUATIONALPHI @ MIA
PHI's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
Philadelphia's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings in three games versus 10.3 for Miami. That five-inning workload gap favors the Marlins if the game is decided after the starters leave.
P flagged side lost 0-1
HR THREATYankees @ White Sox
Paul Goldschmidt
Gary's Take Goldschmidt is the Yankees bat I want against Anthony Kay. He has a 1.066 OPS with nine homers in 111 at-bats against lefties, while Kay has allowed an .845 OPS and 12 homers to right-handed hitters.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATBlue Jays @ Nationals
James Wood
Gary's Take Wood has the power profile I want against Shane Bieber. He has four barrels over his last 22 balls in play, 20 home runs in 207 home at-bats and excellent numbers against four-seamers and sinkers.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATRangers @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Gary's Take Quantrill has handled right-handed hitters overall, but his pitch mix presents a dangerous matchup for Caminero. Junior owns a .633 slugging percentage against sinkers and a .720 mark against four-seamers, the two fastballs Quantrill throws most often.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ CIN
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 4th against Chase Burns (RHP)
Over 190 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .831 OPS versus .535 in 90 AB the other way. He sees RHP Chase Burns tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKCLE @ CIN
Steven Kwan: 1.064 OPS in Last 15 Days
Steven Kwan is running a 1.064 OPS over his last 37 plate appearances, well above his .660 season mark. His hot bat adds another reason to prefer Cleveland against Cincinnati.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ SD
Ty France: 1.235 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.235 OPS spans the last 15 days (44 PA) against a .887 season baseline, a 0.348 swing. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFARI @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .475 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Bryan Reynolds has slipped to a .475 OPS over his last 38 plate appearances. He is better than that, but a matchup with Brandon Pfaadt on his weaker split is not an obvious rebound spot.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFTEX @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .506 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cal Quantrill
Yandy Diaz has a .506 OPS over his last 52 plate appearances, but he does get his stronger split against Cal Quantrill. The matchup offers rebound potential, so I would not automatically fade him based only on recent form.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATYankees @ White Sox
Munetaka Murakami
Gary's Take Murakami's power profile can overcome the difficult name on the mound. He has 18 homers in 171 at-bats against right-handers, and his recent contact includes a 96.6 mph average exit velocity with five barrels on 17 balls in play.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ WSH
Shane Bieber: 4.7 ERA vs 7.21 xERA
Shane Bieber's 4.70 ERA is masking a 7.26 expected ERA and a sizable gap between actual and expected opponent average. Washington's left-handed bats are live candidates to force some regression tonight.
P 0.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
COOLING OFFPHI @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .476 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Otto Lopez has fallen to a .476 OPS over his last 31 plate appearances and faces Aaron Nola on his weaker side. Until the contact results improve, I lean away from his overs.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENNYY @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
The White Sox bullpen has handled 13.3 innings in three games, with four arms appearing multiple times. Both pens enter worked down, increasing the chance that the 17 mph wind matters late.
STREAKTEX @ TB
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Texas games have gone over four straight, averaging 9.3 runs against much lower closing numbers. Tonight's 8.5 asks for more, but Quantrill's poor team results keep the over in consideration.
P final total 5 vs 8.5
HR THREATRoyals @ Twins
Ryan Jeffers
Gary's Take Jeffers is an excellent match for Lugo's most vulnerable offering. Lugo's sinker has allowed a .505 xwOBA, while Jeffers owns a .582 xwOBA and .885 slugging percentage against sinkers.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTEX @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .477 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cal Quantrill
Jonathan Aranda is down to a .477 OPS over his last 42 plate appearances, but Cal Quantrill gives him his stronger platoon side. This looks more like a possible buy-low spot than a clean fade.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFCHC @ STL
Ivan Herrera: .479 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Ivan Herrera has produced a .479 OPS over his last 43 plate appearances and faces Colin Rea on his weaker split. His current form makes hitter-prop overs difficult to trust.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCHC @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.07 ERA vs 5.48 xERA
Michael McGreevy's 3.07 ERA sits well below his 5.48 expected ERA, with a similar warning in his expected batting average allowed. I would be cautious pricing him like a low-three ERA starter against the Cubs.
P 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
SITUATIONALNYY @ CHW
NYY's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
The Yankees and White Sox bullpens have thrown 14.3 and 13.3 innings over their last three games. With both groups carrying mileage and the wind blowing out, the late innings could break away from New York's recent under pattern.
P flagged side won 3-2
SITUATIONALHOU @ LAA
LAA's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
The Angels have needed 14 bullpen innings across three games, slightly more than Houston's 12.7. It is not a huge gap, but it is another reason the Angels could be vulnerable late despite their six-game under streak.
P flagged side lost 3-2
COOLING OFFPHI @ MIA
Xavier Edwards: .425 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Xavier Edwards has a .425 OPS over his last 39 plate appearances, though facing a right-hander gives him his better split. The platoon matchup offers some hope, but his current form still makes an over hard to back.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ CIN
Steven Kwan (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Steven Kwan's vs. Right line (.710 OPS, 238 AB) sits well above his .532 mark the other way (93 AB). Tonight's starter Chase Burns throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIA
Edmundo Sosa: .212 AVG vs .284 xBA
Edmundo Sosa's .212 average and .259 wOBA both sit well below the quality of contact he has produced. The expected numbers suggest a buy-low opportunity if his hitter props are priced off the poor surface results.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALTOR @ WSH
WSH's bullpen has covered 14 innings over the last 3 games
Washington's bullpen has worked 14 innings in three games compared with only 8.3 for Toronto. That sizable rest advantage gives the Blue Jays the better late-game setup.
P flagged side won 6-8
COOLING OFFCHC @ STL
Jordan Walker: .610 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Jordan Walker has cooled to a .610 OPS over his last 44 plate appearances and draws his weaker split against Colin Rea. I need a discounted number before considering his production overs.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ WSH
Keibert Ruiz
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.26 xERA) — .747 OPS, bats 5th.
SITUATIONALKC @ MIN
KC's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings over the last 3 games
Kansas City's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings in three games, including seven from Noah Cameron, compared with 11.3 for Minnesota. The Twins should own the fresher conventional relief options if this becomes a bullpen game.
P flagged side lost 2-3
REGRESSIONBOS @ OAK
Jahmai Jones: .155 AVG vs .222 xBA
Across 114 plate appearances, Jahmai Jones carries a .155 average versus a .222 xBA. His wOBA sits at .232 against a .305 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ CHW
Tristan Peters: .407 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gerrit Cole
Tristan Peters's .407 OPS over the last 15 days (34 PA) trails his .779 season mark, down 0.372. Tonight he draws RHP Gerrit Cole — his stronger side: a .838 OPS vs RHP across 248 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
SITUATIONALBAL @ DET
BAL's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings over the last 3 games
Baltimore's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings in three games versus 11.7 for Detroit. The gap is modest, but the Orioles are the more vulnerable relief group in a park getting a strong offensive weather boost.
P flagged side lost 0-14
BATTER VS ARMPHI @ MIA
Bryce Harper vs Sandy Alcantara: .318
Bryce Harper is 14-for-44 with three homers against Sandy Alcantara and also owns a strong overall split against righties. His cold recent form is the concern, but the matchup history makes him a credible rebound candidate.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ LAD
Luis Castillo vs Max Muncy: 0-for-13, 10 K
Across 13 career at-bats, Max Muncy is just 0-for-13 against Luis Castillo with 10 strikeouts and a .071 OPS. The rematch is tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTBOS tonight
Jahmai Jones
Still hitting 1th for BOS — 0.509 OPS, 0.155 AVG from the 1-hole.
STARTER FORMCLE @ CIN
Slade Cecconi: 7.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 7.43 ERA over his last 13.3 innings with a 2.03 WHIP (1.45 season) — the 4.60 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
HEAT CHECKKC @ MIN
Salvador Perez: .905 OPS in Last 15 Days
Salvador Perez has lifted his OPS to .905 over his last 39 plate appearances after a quiet season overall. His power makes over 1.5 total bases interesting, but the short hot stretch alone is not enough to force it.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWBOS @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 6.12 ERA vs 3.85 xERA
Jacob Lopez is scheduled for tomorrow, but his 6.12 ERA against a 3.87 expected ERA flags him as a possible bounce-back arm. I will keep that in mind before assuming Boston has an easy matchup.
TOMORROWARI @ PIT
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.64 ERA vs 4.96 xERA
Eduardo Rodriguez is scheduled for tomorrow, so this is one to save rather than play tonight. His 2.64 ERA against a 5.00 expected ERA makes Pittsburgh hitters worth revisiting when that market opens.
HEAT CHECKBAL @ DET
Dillon Dingler: 1.160 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dillon Dingler has a 1.160 OPS over his last 36 plate appearances and 22 homers on the season. With a 17 mph wind carrying toward right, his over 1.5 total bases has a favorable power environment.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
REGRESSIONARI @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .290 AVG vs .230 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .290 average and .451 wOBA are running well above his expected marks. The power is real enough to respect, but his current results look vulnerable to cooling.
P 1-for-6, 2 TB
STARTER FORMMIL @ SF
Landen Roupp: 1.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
Landen Roupp has allowed only three earned runs across 21 innings in his last three starts. That 1.29 ERA gives San Francisco a strong foundation tonight, even if some pullback from that pace is reasonable.
P 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
BATTER VS ARMPHI @ MIA
Trea Turner vs Sandy Alcantara: .375
Trea Turner is 15-for-40 with two home runs against Sandy Alcantara and enters with a 1.125 OPS over the last 15 days. Form and history align here, making Turner one of my favorite total-bases looks on the board.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ WSH
Dylan Crews: 1.012 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dylan Crews has posted a 1.012 OPS over his last 31 plate appearances. With Shane Bieber carrying ugly expected numbers, Crews has a favorable path to extending that hot stretch.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ WSH
Daylen Lile
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.26 xERA) — .700 OPS, bats 6th.
CUT LISTCHC tonight
Colin Rea
Starts tonight for CHC — 5.55 xERA behind a 4.86 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
BATTER VS ARMHOU @ LAA
Jose Altuve vs Reid Detmers: .333
Jose Altuve has gone 6-for-18 (.333) across 18 career at-bats off Reid Detmers, with 2 HR. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.605 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ MIN
Byron Buxton: .414 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo
Byron Buxton's .414 OPS over the last 15 days (23 PA) trails his .869 season mark, down 0.455. Tonight he draws RHP Seth Lugo — his stronger side: a .920 OPS vs RHP across 236 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCLE @ CIN
Patrick Bailey: .930 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bailey’s .930 OPS is a real heat check, but it comes over only 25 plate appearances. I’d treat it as a reason to consider a modest hitter prop, not assume this is his new level.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.48 xERA behind a 3.07 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
REGRESSIONCOL @ SD
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .225 xBA
Moniak’s results have run well ahead of his contact quality across a meaningful 255 plate appearances. I’m wary of paying for the .277 average when both xBA and xwOBA point toward regression.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
BATTER VS ARMSEA @ LAD
Shohei Ohtani vs Luis Castillo: .364
In 11 career at-bats against Luis Castillo, Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-11 for a 1.280 OPS (2 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters cold (.625 OPS, L15).
P 3-for-4, 7 TB, 1 BB
CLOSER WATCHKC @ MIN
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ STL
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHHOU @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Seth Lugo
Starts tonight for KC — 5.4 xERA behind a 4.36 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
HEAT CHECKTEX @ TB
Joc Pederson: 1.185 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pederson is locked in with a 1.185 OPS over his last 27 plate appearances, and he has supplied power all season. Over 0.5 total bases is the clean way I’d look to ride the streak.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PARK WEATHERMIL @ SF
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Conditions at Oracle Park: Clear, 66°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 10 vs 7.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMTEX @ TB
Cal Quantrill: 6.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
Quantrill’s recent form is hard to excuse: nine earned runs and a 1.77 WHIP in 13 innings. I’m looking toward Tampa Bay bats rather than trusting his 4.05 season ERA.
P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONSEA @ LAD
Justin Wrobleski: 2.62 ERA vs 4.1 xERA
Wrobleski’s 2.62 ERA is carrying nearly a run and a half of good fortune compared with his xERA. Seattle’s matchup is more inviting than the surface number makes it look.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
FIRST INNINGARI @ PIT
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of ARI @ PIT
Both clubs have consistently opened games quietly, and the starters’ first-inning work supports that pattern. At plus money, NRFI is the side that interests me.
P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 7/28
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/28 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIA
Aaron Nola: 5.82 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Nola has pitched better than his 5.82 ERA suggests, although a 4.33 xERA still is not dominant. I see a bounce-back case, but not one strong enough to treat him like vintage Nola.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMBOS @ OAK
Gage Jump: 6.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jump has allowed traffic and damage together lately, posting a 6.43 ERA with a 1.79 WHIP over his last 14 innings. Boston’s offense is the side I’d rather back in this matchup.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONARI @ PIT
Jake Mangum: .301 AVG vs .256 xBA
Mangum’s .301 average is being propped up by results that his contact quality does not support. Over 293 plate appearances, the .256 xBA makes this a legitimate regression warning.
P 2-for-6, 3 TB
REGRESSIONPHI @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .331 AVG vs .287 xBA
Otto Lopez is hitting .331 against a .287 expected average (xBA) over 446 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .370 against a .333 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ SD
Michael King: 3.24 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
Michael King carries a 3.24 ERA against a 4.57 expected ERA (1.33 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .212 off him vs a .246 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 7/29
Blas Castano
Listed back 7/29 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
COOLING OFFCLE @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .587 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Slade Cecconi
JJ Bleday's .587 OPS over the last 15 days (36 PA) trails his .812 season mark, down 0.225. Tonight he draws RHP Slade Cecconi — his stronger side: a .832 OPS vs RHP across 200 AB.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
BULLPENTOR @ WSH
Washington Nationals pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington’s bullpen has absorbed 14 innings in three games, leaving less flexibility if the starter exits early. That makes Toronto’s late-inning offense worth a look.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ STL
Alec Burleson
Pickup vs Colin Rea (5.59 xERA) — .812 OPS, bats 3rd.
REGRESSIONBAL @ DET
Troy Melton: 1.95 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Troy Melton carries a 1.95 ERA against a 3.18 expected ERA (1.23 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .178 off him vs a .217 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMECLE @ CIN
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Austin Hedges has caught just 6%
Austin Hedges is catching tonight at 6% on the season (2-for-35 throwing), and Cincinnati Reds attempt 0.9 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 3 bases
STARTER FORMCOL @ SD
Michael King: 1.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
King has delivered a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts while keeping his underlying traffic near his already solid season level. Against Colorado in San Diego, I’m inclined to trust the current form.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
BALLPARKCHC @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 2.30 ERA
McGreevy has clearly been more comfortable at Busch, with a 2.30 ERA and .231 average allowed over a substantial home sample. I’m more willing to back him here than his overall profile might suggest.
P 1.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ STL
Seiya Suzuki
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.48 xERA) — .824 OPS, bats 2nd.
STARTER FORMTOR @ WSH
Cade Cavalli: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cavalli enters in excellent form after allowing four earned runs with a 0.83 WHIP across 18 innings. The concern is whether Washington’s worked-down bullpen can protect what he gives them.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 7/28
Enrique Hernandez
Listed back 7/28 (10-Day-IL, oblique).
REGRESSIONTEX @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.89 ERA vs 5.02 xERA
Griffin Jax carries a 3.89 ERA against a 5.02 expected ERA (1.13 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .242 off him vs a .266 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
REGRESSIONNYY @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.21 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Anthony Kay carries a 4.21 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (1.13 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .253 off him vs a .268 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.616 OPS, 0.217 AVG from the 2-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSBAL @ DET
Troy Melton
Streamer vs BAL — 3.18 xERA · 8.3 K/9 · 0.95 WHIP.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.624 OPS, 0.208 AVG from the 4-hole.
CUT LISTTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.633 OPS, 0.203 AVG from the 4-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSTEX @ TB
Wyatt Langford
Pickup vs Griffin Jax (5.06 xERA) — .846 OPS, bats 2nd.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ MIN
Minnesota Twins like to run — Carter Jensen (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Minnesota likes to apply pressure, but Jensen’s 40% caught-stealing rate changes the equation. I’d be careful with Twins stolen-base overs in this strength-on-strength matchup.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ SF
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Drew Cavanaugh has caught just 12%
Drew Cavanaugh is catching tonight at 12% on the season (2-for-17 throwing), and Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 2 bases
CLOSER WATCHTEX @ TB
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 20 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
CLOSER WATCHPHI @ MIA
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
CLOSER WATCHARI @ PIT
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jonathan Loaisiga with 1).
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ CIN
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 29 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
CLOSER WATCHTEX @ TB
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 28 saves this season (next closest: Kevin Kelly with 4).
BALLPARKBAL @ DET
Troy Melton owns a 2.63 ERA at Comerica Park — 1.38 everywhere else
Melton has held hitters to a .196 average at Comerica, but his 2.63 home ERA is actually worse than his 1.38 mark elsewhere. The park split is positive in context, though not a reason by itself to upgrade him.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
TOMORROWSEA @ LAD
Emerson Hancock: 3.16 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Hancock’s 3.16 ERA is hiding a 4.33 xERA and a sizable gap between actual and expected batting average. A trip to face the Dodgers is a difficult spot for that good fortune to continue tomorrow.
FIRST INNINGMIL @ SF
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIL @ SF
The recent first-inning trends and both starters’ opening-frame numbers support the NRFI. The issue is the -150 price, which leaves little room for error, so I’d need something cheaper to play it.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOMORROWTEX @ TB
Ian Seymour: 4.64 ERA vs 3.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 4.64 ERA against a 3.55 expected ERA (1.09 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .216 vs .214 expected.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMETEX @ TB
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Austin Wynns has caught just 15%
Tampa Bay already runs aggressively, and Wynns has thrown out only 15% of attempted base stealers. Rays stolen-base props are firmly on my radar tonight.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
CUT LISTPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.653 OPS, 0.224 AVG from the 4-hole.
TOMORROWTOR @ WSH
Zack Littell: 5.17 ERA vs 6.23 xERA
Littell’s 5.17 ERA already looks shaky, and the 6.28 xERA says it could get worse. Toronto is a matchup I’ll consider attacking tomorrow.
CUT LISTCLE tonight
Steven Kwan
Still hitting 1th for CLE — 0.660 OPS, 0.248 AVG from the 1-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ SF
Landen Roupp
Streamer vs MIL — 3.35 xERA · 9.2 K/9 · 1.24 WHIP.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Chris Sale: 2.19 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Sale’s ERA is nearly a run below his xERA, but the actual and expected batting averages are almost identical. I see some regression risk tomorrow, though the evidence is not strong enough for an automatic fade.
FANTASY PICKUPSHOU @ LAA
Peter Lambert
Streamer vs LAA — 3.45 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.12 WHIP.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Christian Scott: 3.13 ERA vs 4.01 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ATL. A 3.13 ERA against a 4.01 expected ERA (0.88 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .215 vs .225 expected.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ CIN
JJ Bleday
Pickup vs Slade Cecconi (4.73 xERA) — .812 OPS, bats 3rd.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ OAK
Jake Bennett
Streamer vs OAK — 3.14 xERA · 6.4 K/9 · 0.94 WHIP.
TOMORROWATL @ NYM
Grant Holmes: 3.79 ERA vs 4.7 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 3.79 ERA against a 4.7 expected ERA (0.91 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .241 vs .251 expected.
FIRST INNINGSEA @ LAD
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle has failed to score in the first inning in 10 straight, but that only addresses half of the NRFI. With Wrobleski allowing a .281 first-inning average, I’m not paying to assume the Dodgers also stay quiet.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ CIN
Nathaniel Lowe
Pickup vs Slade Cecconi (4.73 xERA) — .809 OPS, bats 5th.
BALLPARKKC @ MIN
At Target Field, Taj Bradley pitches to a 3.14 ERA
Bradley has been a full run better at Target Field while holding hitters to a .203 average there. His home setting gives me more confidence than his road numbers would.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
TOMORROWTEX @ TB
MacKenzie Gore: 4.82 ERA vs 3.98 xERA
Gore’s 4.82 ERA is worse than his 3.98 expected mark, giving him a bounce-back case tomorrow. The nearly identical actual and expected batting averages keep the edge modest rather than overwhelming.
TOMORROWNYY @ CHW
Cam Schlittler: 2.07 ERA vs 2.93 xERA
Schlittler’s 2.07 ERA is ahead of his 2.95 expected mark, so some pullback is reasonable. The matchup with the White Sox may soften that concern tomorrow, making this a cautious regression watch rather than a hard fade.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ CIN
Sal Stewart
Pickup vs Slade Cecconi (4.73 xERA) — .799 OPS, bats 2nd.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ MIN
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 14%
Kansas City has both the willingness to run and an inviting matchup against Jeffers’ 14% caught-stealing rate. Royals stolen-base props are one of the clearest ways to attack this game.
P Kansas City Royals stole 2 bases
TOMORROWNYY @ CHW
Davis Martin: 3.49 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Martin’s 3.49 ERA has outpaced both his 4.33 xERA and expected batting average. Facing the Yankees tomorrow is a dangerous place for that gap to close.
RUNNING GAMEPHI @ MIA
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Joe Mack (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Joe Mack owns a 33% caught-stealing rate (19 of 57) and Philadelphia Phillies run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 0 bases
CUT LISTCLE tonight
Kyle Manzardo
Still hitting 6th for CLE — 0.656 OPS, 0.209 AVG from the 6-hole.
FIRST INNINGTEX @ TB
TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Tampa Bay Rays have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters. Tonight's 1st-inning number: Over 0.5 -125 / Under 0.5 -105. Starters' first innings this season — Griffin Jax 2.81 ERA, .228 BA against in first innings (16.0 IP, 2 HR).
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCOL @ SD
SD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Diego Padres have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters. Tonight's 1st-inning number: Over 0.5 -105 / Under 0.5 -120. Starters' first innings this season — Michael King 1.29 ERA, .091 BA against in first innings (21.0 IP, 1 HR); Michael Lorenzen 6.00 ERA, .300 BA against in first innings (21.0 IP, 5 HR).
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGPHI @ MIA
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Miami Marlins have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters. Tonight's 1st-inning number: Over 0.5 -120 / Under 0.5 -110. Starters' first innings this season — Sandy Alcantara 4.09 ERA, .287 BA against in first innings (22.0 IP, 2 HR); Aaron Nola 3.43 ERA, .235 BA against in first innings (21.0 IP, 4 HR).
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson
Pickup vs Slade Cecconi (4.73 xERA) — .712 OPS, bats 6th.

Graded results

Games

L
Pirates ML -115
MLB · 8-7
L
Reds ML -167
MLB · 6-5
W
Tigers ML -144
MLB · 0-14
W
Marlins ML -129
MLB · 0-1
W
Rangers +1.5 -148
MLB · 4-1
W
Nationals ML -144
MLB · 6-8
L
Guardians ML -149
MLB · 0-2
L
Twins -1.5 +113
MLB · 2-3
W
Yankees ML -125
MLB · 3-2
W
Cubs ML -115
MLB · 10-2

Props

L
Anthony Volpe · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Byron Buxton · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Cade Cavalli · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 3
L
CJ Abrams · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 2
L
Colin Rea · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Dillon Dingler · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Endy Rodriguez · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 4
L
Geraldo Perdomo · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Griffin Conine · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 1
W
Griffin Jax · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 5
L
James Wood · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 2
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Michael Busch · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 3
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 3
L
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Paul Goldschmidt · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Riley Greene · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Riley Greene · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Ryan Jeffers · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Sal Stewart · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Sandy Alcantara · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 21
W
Seth Lugo · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 2
W
Slade Cecconi · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 7
W
Taj Bradley · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 3
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Yandy Diaz · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0