Cubs at Cardinals
O/U 11.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cubs ML -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 10-2
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Tuesday night at Busch Stadium, I’m backing the Cubs to build on their opening win. Chicago has been winning and scoring plenty lately, while St. Louis has been losing most of its games.
Michael McGreevy’s basic numbers look good, but he is allowing too much hard contact and missing fewer bats, so I expect him to slip. Chicago has the deeper batting order, with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner all swinging well. Colin Rea can be shaky, especially against left-handed hitters, but Alec Burleson is the only Cardinals hitter showing steady recent form.
I also trust Chicago more late in the game. Jacob Webb is available, while St. Louis will be without Hunter Dobbins and may not have Riley O’Brien. Rea is too unpredictable for me to bet on Chicago winning by multiple runs, but the Cubs are the better team, with the hotter lineup and the more reliable path to a win. I’m betting the Cubs to win outright.
The full analysis
Tuesday night at Busch Stadium, the Cubs look to press their advantage after taking the opener 7-3. Chicago has won three of four and is scoring 6.4 runs per game over the past two weeks, while St. Louis has dropped eight of ten.
Michael McGreevy’s 3.07 ERA looks reassuring, but his 5.48 xERA, 42.2% hard-hit rate and declining whiff rate point toward regression. Chicago has the deeper lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong rolling, Michael Busch swinging well and Alex Bregman and Nico Hoerner coming off four-hit nights. Colin Rea is vulnerable, particularly against lefties, but Alec Burleson is the only Cardinals hitter carrying consistently strong recent form.
The late innings also lean Chicago. Jacob Webb is available, while St. Louis is without Hunter Dobbins after his 85-pitch relief outing and may not have closer Riley O’Brien. Rea’s volatility keeps me off the run line, but Chicago is the better club with the hotter lineup and more dependable path through nine innings. My bet is Cubs moneyline at -115.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Colin Rea (RHP)
.960Alec Burleson's .960 OPS against righties towers over his .505 mark against lefties. Hitting third against Colin Rea puts Burleson in one of the night's cleaner platoon spots.
COOLING OFF
Ivan Herrera: .479 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
.479Ivan Herrera has produced a .479 OPS over his last 43 plate appearances and faces Colin Rea on his weaker split. His current form makes hitter-prop overs difficult to trust.
Jordan Walker: .610 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
.610Jordan Walker has cooled to a .610 OPS over his last 44 plate appearances and draws his weaker split against Colin Rea. I need a discounted number before considering his production overs.
BALLPARK
At Busch Stadium, Michael McGreevy pitches to a 2.30 ERA
2.30McGreevy has clearly been more comfortable at Busch, with a 2.30 ERA and .231 average allowed over a substantial home sample. I’m more willing to back him here than his overall profile might suggest.
REGRESSION
Michael McGreevy: 3.07 ERA vs 5.48 xERA
5.48Michael McGreevy's 3.07 ERA sits well below his 5.48 expected ERA, with a similar warning in his expected batting average allowed. I would be cautious pricing him like a low-three ERA starter against the Cubs.
CLOSER WATCH
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
5 SVShared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
FANTASY PICKUPS
Alec Burleson
.812 OPSPickup vs Colin Rea (5.59 xERA) — .812 OPS, bats 3rd.
Seiya Suzuki
.824 OPSPickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.48 xERA) — .824 OPS, bats 2nd.
CUT LIST
Colin Rea
5.55 xERAStarts tonight for CHC — 5.55 xERA behind a 4.86 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
Michael McGreevy
5.48 xERAStarts tonight for STL — 5.48 xERA behind a 3.07 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 28, 2026 at 12:14 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKCOLIN REAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5
Rea has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts, and his 5.59 xERA is even worse than his 4.85 ERA. St.
Louis is starting five left-handed hitters against a pitcher allowing a .298 average to that side. Rea's four-seamer and sinker have produced .406 and .470 xwOBA marks, respectively.
I like the Cardinals to get three before he exits.
- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL BUSCHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
Busch is batting third after going 15-for-45 over the last 15 days, and he has cleared this combination in 10 of his last 15. McGreevy's 3.07 ERA is backed by a 5.48 xERA, a .355 expected wOBA and a 42.2% hard-hit rate. Busch also has two homers in eight career at-bats against him. A solo homer clears this outright, while one hit plus a run or RBI is enough in a favorable lineup position.
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