Phillies at Marlins
O/U 1.5 · RL Marlins -1.5
Marlins ML-129
CONF 62%
WCashedFinal 0-1
The read
The roof will be closed in Miami, and this rematch comes down to whether Aaron Nola can handle a Marlins lineup loaded with left-handed hitters. Miami finally snapped its long losing streak with Monday’s walk-off win, and Sandy Alcantara starts while trade rumors swirl around him.
I give Miami the clear edge in starting pitching. Alcantara has pitched deep into his recent starts and rarely allows hitters to make damaging contact. Nola has struggled, allowed too many runners, and both of his fastballs have been hit hard. That is a bad matchup against a Miami lineup filled with left-handed and switch hitters, especially since lefties have crushed him.
Philadelphia can still challenge Alcantara with Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, but Kyle Schwarber is out with an illness and J.T. Realmuto is also missing from the starting lineup. I do not trust Miami’s relief pitchers enough to bet on a comfortable win, but Alcantara can limit how much they are needed. I’ll take the Marlins to win.
The full analysis
The roof is closed in Miami, and Tuesday’s rematch centers on whether Aaron Nola can contain a left-handed Marlins stack. Miami finally ended its 12-game skid with Monday’s walk-off, and now Sandy Alcantara gets the ball with trade-deadline noise surrounding him.
The starting-pitching gap favors Miami. Alcantara owns a 3.77 xERA, has completed at least six innings in each of his past three starts and has allowed a low 5.6% barrel rate. Nola carries a 5.82 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, while both of his fastballs have allowed a .368 xwOBA. That is dangerous against a Miami lineup featuring seven left-handed or switch hitters, especially when lefties have produced an .881 OPS against him.
Philadelphia can threaten Alcantara through Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, but Kyle Schwarber’s same-day illness scratch thins the lineup, and J.T. Realmuto is also absent from the starting nine. Miami’s bullpen keeps me away from the run line, but Alcantara’s ability to work deep reduces that exposure. I’ll take the Marlins moneyline at -129.
Props on this game
4Sandy AlcantaraOVER 18.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+145
WActual 21
This price is paying me to ask Alcantara for one out in the seventh. He has worked seven, six and seven innings in his last three starts, clearing 18.5 outs in five of his last eight.
His season workload averages 19.6 outs per start, and he still completed seven innings after allowing nine hits and five runs at Houston. Philadelphia is without Kyle Schwarber tonight and is also resting J.T.
Realmuto, weakening the lineup around its dangerous top three. With Miami's bullpen moderately taxed and Michael Petersen sidelined, Alcantara should get every opportunity to pitch deep.
Griffin ConineOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-138
Not yet graded
Conine has recorded a hit in 11 of his last 15 games, and this matchup lines up well beyond Monday's homer and walk-off single. He owns a .279 average and .955 OPS against right-handed pitching, while Nola has allowed lefties to hit .279 with an .881 OPS. Nola uses his four-seam fastball and sinker on roughly 43% of his pitches, and Conine has handled those offerings well, including a .438 xwOBA against sinkers. His recent 94.4 mph average exit velocity and 11 hard-hit balls on 16 balls in play support another hit.
Griffin ConineOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+900
LActual 0
This price is too long for Conine against Aaron Nola. Nola has allowed 25 homers, including 15 to left-handed hitters, with a 10.4% barrel rate and a fly-ball lean.
Conine owns a .955 OPS with seven homers in 86 at-bats against righties, and his recent contact has been loud. He homered Monday, and Nola's vulnerable four-seam and sinker fit pitches Conine has driven well.
Batting sixth costs him some plate-appearance equity, but +900 more than compensates.
Bryce HarperOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+650
LActual 0
This is a price play rather than a broad fade of Sandy Alcantara. Harper has three homers and a 1.021 OPS in 44 career at-bats against him. Alcantara relies heavily on his four-seam and sinker, and Harper has produced a .451 xwOBA against four-seamers and a .411 xwOBA against sinkers this season. Alcantara limits barrels well, but he surrendered three homers in his last start, and Harper batting third should get enough chances for +650 to carry value despite his recent slump.
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