Daily archive

2026-07-29

The stored Gary board for Wed, Jul 29. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:10 PM

Phillies @ Marlins

It is high noon at loanDepot park for a getaway-day finale, and the temperature inside the division race is rising fast as the trade deadline looms just forty-eight hours away. Miami has managed to pull off back-to-back tense wins to halt a miserable twelve-game slide, but Philadelphia enters this afternoon in desperate need of a reset after dropping six of their last seven. With Bryce Harper publicly calling for reinforcements, the Phillies cannot afford to get swept out of South Florida before heading into the final stretch. The pitching mismatch here is as stark as it gets on a quick day-game turnaround. Left-hander Jesús Luzardo takes the mound for Philadelphia in surgical form, carrying a 1.08 ERA through four July starts while routinely working deep into ballgames. Miami counters with Ryan Gusto, who is effectively functioning as a short opener with a strict pitch ceiling. That leaves a Marlins bullpen tasked with covering six-plus innings, right after key high-leverage relievers Calvin Faucher and Pete Fairbanks were taxed in back-to-back tight contests. Even with Kyle Schwarber sidelined by illness, Philadelphia’s order possesses far too much barrel quality for Miami's overworked secondary relievers to navigate multiple times. Expect Luzardo to set the tone against his former club, giving the Phillies the distance they need while the offense finally breaks loose against a depleted relief corps. Take Philadelphia on the run line to salvage the finale.

Phillies -1.5-102

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68%

MLB12:35 PM

Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Here's the plain-language version of my pick: **Gary's Take** Both of these teams are running on fumes. They played a marathon of a game Tuesday night that dragged past midnight, and now they have to turn right back around for an early afternoon game in Pittsburgh with a playoff spot on the line. Arizona won that late-night slugfest to slip just ahead of Pittsburgh in the playoff race, and today's deciding game comes down to two starting pitchers headed in opposite directions: Jared Jones and his blazing fastball for Pittsburgh, and Eduardo Rodriguez, whose win-loss record looks great on paper, for Arizona. I trust Jones way more. Since coming back from an elbow injury, he's been nearly untouchable — barely giving up any runs in his last three starts, keeping runners off the bases, and throwing a slider that hitters keep swinging at and missing. Rodriguez's numbers look shiny, but hitters have been squaring him up all year, his fastball gets hit hard, and two starts ago St. Louis knocked him out before he could even get through three innings. Pittsburgh's lineup is set up to give him trouble: Brandon Lowe is red-hot and has taken Rodriguez deep three times in his career, Nick Gonzales has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week, and right-handed batters in general have always given this lefty problems. The deciding factor is the late innings, and that's where Arizona is in real trouble. They ran through most of their bullpen in Tuesday's marathon, their closer Paul Sewald just gave up back-to-back home runs and admitted he's struggling, and his own manager wouldn't even say the job is still his. If this game is close late, I want the team whose starter is rolling and who just added two fresh relievers from the minors this morning. Jones is on a pitch limit, sure, but if he gives Pittsburgh six strong innings, Arizona is stuck trying to protect a lead with a worn-out, shaky bullpen in a day game. Give me the Pirates at home.

Pirates ML-131

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63%

MLB1:05 PM

Blue Jays @ Nationals

Last game of the series in Washington on a sunny afternoon, and these two teams are living in different worlds. The Nationals are hovering just above a winning record and genuinely believe they're playing meaningful baseball right now — they said as much after winning last night. Toronto is well below a winning record, basically waving the white flag on their season, and now they're playing without their best hitter, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who's out again with a sore hamstring. If you only looked at the starting pitchers, you'd lean Toronto — their rookie Trey Yesavage gets a lot of strikeouts, and Washington's Zack Littell has been getting hit hard all summer. But that misses the bigger picture. The Blue Jays have barely been scoring for two weeks, and with Vlad out, George Springer is really the only guy in that lineup swinging a hot bat. Their relief pitchers are also gassed after getting worked hard last night when Bieber couldn't make it out of the first inning. Yesavage didn't last long in his most recent start and was wild the start before that — if the rookie struggles early in the day heat, Toronto has no rested arms to bail him out. Washington's hitters, meanwhile, just keep grinding — CJ Abrams is playing the best baseball of his life, Luis García Jr. is hitting everything hard, and they showed on Tuesday they're patient enough to wear a pitcher down. So here's the bet: the sportsbooks are treating this as a coin flip, and I'm getting the better offense, at home, against a team that's been losing constantly and just lost the heart of its batting order. That's a deal I'll take every time. Littell doesn't need to be great — he just needs to be decent, and this Toronto lineup has made plenty of decent pitchers look like stars lately. Washington wins the series.

Nationals ML+100

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61%

MLB1:10 PM

Braves @ Mets

Here's the plain-language rewrite, keeping the same pick and reasoning in the same order: --- **Gary's Take** Afternoon game in New York, and the Braves are starting a young pitcher who hasn't thrown in the big leagues in over a year because of elbow surgery. It's a great comeback story, but betting on it is a leap of faith. His last warm-up outing in the minors was short, he's only on the roster as an extra arm for today's two games, and Atlanta is going to handle him carefully. That means this game lands in the Braves' bullpen early — in the middle of the game, on a day when their relievers have to cover two full games. And that's the same bullpen that just cut a pitcher loose after an ugly meltdown Monday night and brought up a guy specifically because they know they'll need somebody to eat innings today. Sean Manaea isn't a star, but he's the guy you can actually count on in this matchup, and his last time out he shut down the best-hitting team in baseball. He's a starter who can pitch deep into games, and behind him the Mets have a rested bullpen that's been one of the best in the sport, with a lockdown closer and a reliable setup man in front of him. The real worry: right-handed hitters have hit Manaea hard this year, and Atlanta's righty bats — Acuña, Riley, Dubon — can make him pay if he leaves his go-to pitch over the plate. If that happens, the Braves can flip this game. But I keep coming back to how this day sets up. The Mets have had Atlanta's number this season, especially at home, and they just put a huge number on this team two nights ago with Lindor, Taylor, and Alvarez all swinging as well as they have all year. The Braves are the better team over a full season — no argument there — but today isn't about the full season. It's a pitcher on a short leash and a worn-out bullpen against a real starter with a fresh, elite bullpen behind him, and the odds say these teams are basically even today. Give me the home team in the afternoon game.

Mets ML-108

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61%

MLB1:10 PM

Orioles @ Tigers

Here's the plain-language version: --- **Gary's Take** It's a sunny afternoon in Detroit, and the best pitcher in the American League is taking the mound — maybe for the last time ever in a Tigers uniform, with trade rumors swirling as the deadline gets close. Tarik Skubal goes up against a Baltimore team that just got blown out by fourteen runs last night. If this really is his goodbye start, he's getting it against the weakest version of the Orioles we've seen all season. Just look at who Baltimore is actually putting on the field. Their three best hitters are all out of the lineup, and the catcher batting last has barely gotten a hit all week — he was so buried last night they even had him pitch garbage-time relief. Almost their whole lineup swings right-handed, and that's exactly the kind of hitter Skubal eats alive. Righties can barely touch him this year, and his changeup makes them swing and miss more than half the time. He's coming off one of his most dominant starts of the season, he's getting sharper every time out, and Detroit's huge ballpark takes away the cheap home run — the one easy way to beat him. On the other side, Baltimore's starter Trevor Rogers has been decent, but right-handed hitters have hit him hard all year, and Detroit is loading up with them — including a couple of guys who are absolutely on fire right now, one hitting nearly everything he sees this week and another who just smashed two homers in a single game. Now, the honest case against it: Baltimore has actually beaten Detroit most of the times they've played this year, Rogers shut this same Tigers lineup down back in May, and the price on this bet is steep — you're risking a lot to win a little on a team with a losing record. That's why I'm not asking Detroit to win by multiple runs. Skubal games at this park tend to stay close, so a tight win pays you nothing extra on that kind of bet. But betting them simply to win the game makes sense. Skubal goes deep, hands it to a fully rested back end of the bullpen, and Baltimore counters with a lineup missing its three best hitters against the worst possible matchup for them. Give me the ace at home, maybe pitching for his legacy in Detroit, against a team that looked finished by the second inning last night.

Tigers ML-188

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68%

MLB3:45 PM

Brewers @ Giants

**Gary's Take** Last game of the series out in San Francisco, and on paper this looks backwards: the best team in the National League is starting a lefty who just got called up from the minors this morning, while the last-place Giants have their best pitcher on the mound. That should even things out. But when you actually look at it, it doesn't. Logan Webb has eaten a lot of innings this year, but he hasn't been dominant — his go-to pitch is getting hit hard lately, and lefty hitters have given him trouble all season. Milwaukee is loading the lineup with left-handed bats today, led by Brice Turang, who's swinging a hot bat and has always hit Webb well. And this Brewers offense doesn't need home runs to score — they work long at-bats, put the ball in play, and run the bases hard, which plays great in a big ballpark like this one. The Giants, on the other hand, are missing a bunch of their regular hitters, they've barely been scoring for a week and a half, and they're forced to stack lefty bats even against a lefty pitcher because they're out of options. Devers has struggled badly against lefties all year, and Heliot Ramos, their one right-handed power threat, is ice cold and chasing bad pitches. The late innings are what really decide this one. Milwaukee's new starter just has to keep it close and hand it off to a rested, nasty back of the bullpen, and they've got an off day tomorrow so the manager can use everybody. San Francisco's bullpen is gassed — their long guys got worn out in last night's loss, and once you get past their one reliable arm, it gets ugly. Webb will probably keep it close for six innings, but close against this Brewers team, with these two bullpens, usually ends one way. I'm taking the much better team at a fair price. Brewers to win the game.

Brewers ML-116

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61%

MLB4:10 PM

Rockies @ Padres

— Plain English The Padres are rolling right now. They've won a bunch in a row, they're playing their best baseball at home, and last night they came back three separate times before winning it at the buzzer. The Rockies are the opposite story — they're at the end of a long road trip, losing way more than they're winning, and playing sloppy on top of it. Colorado's starter today is a young kid making just his fourth big-league start, and I'll give him his due: he's legit. Hitters can't seem to hit him hard, and he's gone reasonably deep into games every time out. San Diego answers with a lefty starting what's basically a group pitching effort, something they've been doing lately behind their two main guys. But here's the thing — this game won't be won early, it'll be won late. Colorado emptied out their bullpen last night, and now they have to come right back for an afternoon game with tired arms. That bullpen is shaky even when it's fresh. Worn out, against a San Diego lineup that just piled on runs last night and has been scoring in bunches for two straight weeks — with their biggest stars all swinging red-hot bats — that's where this game breaks open. And on the other side, the Rockies are loaded with lefty hitters facing a lefty pitcher who has owned them his whole career, with San Diego's best relievers rested and ready behind him, including a closer who mowed down the side last night like it was nothing. So the question becomes what ticket to buy. The Padres straight up are more expensive than I like to pay on a day when they're piecing together the pitching, even against a team that looks ready to sell off players and pack it in. But the way this game sets up — a young starter who can only go so long handing things over to an exhausted, shaky bullpen against a scorching-hot lineup — points to San Diego pulling away late and winning comfortably, not squeaking by. That's exactly how most of their home wins over Colorado have gone this year, and they've dominated this matchup all season. The kid could absolutely keep it close for a while, and I respect that — it's why I'm betting this with some restraint instead of going all-in. Give me the Padres to win by more than one run, at a price where I get paid extra for the risk. That's the side and the price I want.

Padres -1.5+133

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63%

MLB6:40 PM

Rangers @ Rays

Under the roof at the Trop, two division leaders spend the last week of July trading punches while the whole league shops around them. Texas took the opener 4-1 behind Cal Quantrill and a journeyman catcher's heroics, and tonight the board says Rays -144, Rangers +119 — the market leaning on Tampa's 38-16 home mark and the best late-inning arm in the American League. I get the respect. I just think tonight's pitching plan hands Texas the better side of the ledger at plus money. Tampa is piecing this one together: Casey Legumina opens, lefty Ian Seymour takes the bulk. Legumina's surface numbers are tidy, but right-handed hitters are batting .364 with a .908 OPS against him, his sinker barely misses a bat, and Texas answered by stacking six righties — Wyatt Langford hitting .311 over two weeks with the loudest contact in either lineup, Ezequiel Duran on an absolute heater at .381 with two homers in the last week, Jake Burger's power behind them. When Seymour arrives, Justin Foscue and his 1.007 OPS against lefties are sitting there waiting. And the relief math got worse for Tampa this afternoon: Cole Sulser hit the injured list with back spasms, while Steven Matz and Craig Kimbrel both worked last night. On a night when all 27 outs belong to the bullpen, that thinning matters. The Texas side isn't spotless — MacKenzie Gore's July has been short and shaky, and Junior Caminero feasts on four-seamers while Gore throws his 44 percent of the time. But Gore's contact quality all season says he's been better than the 4.82 ERA, he holds righties to a .226 average, and Tampa's lineup runs six of them tonight while the left-side anchors, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda, are hitting under .190 over the last two weeks. This park keeps games close, Jacob Latz needed all of ten pitches to close last night and has converted sixteen straight, and the hotter lineup gets the softer pitching plan. Give me the Rangers at plus money.

Rangers ML+119

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63%

MLB7:10 PM

Guardians @ Reds

Summer twilight is settling in as Cleveland and Cincinnati play the deciding game of this series after yesterday's grueling doubleheader. Cincinnati sends Brady Singer to the mound, and while his recent overall results look impressive on the surface, he has a glaring weakness that fits Cleveland perfectly. Singer gets hit hard by left-handed batters and gives up a ton of power to them, so Cleveland is taking direct aim by filling their order with lefties and switch-hitters. On top of that, Jose Ramirez has completely dominated Singer over his career, and Kyle Manzardo has hit him with ease as well. Cleveland starter Joey Cantillo has struggled with his own pitch control, but Cincinnati's lineup remains thinned out without Spencer Steer and Matt McLain. The biggest difference maker in this matchup is in the late-inning pitching. Cincinnati was forced to burn through their bullpen yesterday, using relief pitcher after relief pitcher across both games and losing Jose Franco to elbow discomfort in the process. Cleveland comes in with far more rested arms, boasting strong late-game options in Hunter Gaddis and Colin Holderman to bridge the gap to Cade Smith, who leads the major leagues in saves. I am backing Cleveland to use their matchup advantages and superior pitching depth to take the series finale.

Guardians ML-136

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68%

MLB7:10 PM

Braves @ Mets

The lights are up for the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader at Citi Field, where the Mets are looking for a daily sweep after pulling out a tight victory in the afternoon opener. New York has quieted the division leaders over the last two games, but Atlanta is now handing the ball to Chris Sale to stop their losing streak, while the Mets counter with young right-hander Christian Scott. Sale has been virtually surgical this year, throwing high-heat fastballs alongside a devastating slider that leaves hitters swinging at air nearly half the time. Without Juan Soto anchored in the middle of New York's lineup, the Mets lack the left-handed power needed to disrupt Sale's dominance against hitters on both sides of the plate. On the other side, Scott's solid overall results are masking some shaky underlying pitching, and his heavy reliance on his fastball plays right into the strengths of Braves power hitters like Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin. The bullpen availability also tilts heavily toward Atlanta for this night matchup. Braves manager Walt Weiss managed the first game without using closer Raisel Iglesias, leaving his best late-game arm rested and ready. Meanwhile, the Mets were forced to push key late-inning pitchers Devin Williams and Luke Weaver through high-stress work just to preserve that afternoon win. Expect Sale to control the game early and the Braves to bounce back with a win by multiple runs to split the day.

Braves -1.5+104

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78%

MLB7:40 PM

Royals @ Twins

We’re live from Target Field on a warm summer evening in Minneapolis, where the Twins look to build on yesterday’s walk-off heroics and keep their postseason push moving in the right direction. Minnesota’s front office formally declared themselves buyers at the trade deadline this week, and the clubhouse is riding high after winning five of their last six games to pull back to an even record on the year. At first glance, Randy Dobnak's low run average might look intimidating for Kansas City, but a deeper look reveals he has been getting very lucky and is due for a breakdown as a pitcher who relies on hitters putting the ball in play. On the other side, Joe Ryan gives Minnesota a decisive starting pitching advantage with his high strikeout totals and sharp underlying numbers, giving the Twins a massive leg up in controlling the game from the jump. The Royals’ offense is severely weakened tonight without its main engines, as Bobby Witt Jr. remains out and Vinnie Pasquantino joined him on the injured list today. Outside of Salvador Perez, Kansas City lacks the depth to stay close against Ryan, and their relief pitchers are already worn out after Alex Lange took a stressful loss in yesterday's collapse. Back Minnesota to win by more than one run at a great payout.

Twins -1.5+101

CONF

78%

MLB7:40 PM

Yankees @ White Sox

We are under the lights for game three of this four-game set, where the Yankees look to secure a series victory against a White Sox squad trying to protect a narrow division lead. New York has taken the first two games through tight execution, and while trade deadline chatter swirls around both clubhouses, tonight comes down to a clear mismatch on the mound. Cam Schlittler has been outstanding for New York, giving up hardly any runs or baserunners while blowing a fastball near ninety-eight miles per hour past hitters to miss bats over a third of the time. He is coming off a dominant performance where he struck out twelve batters. On the flip side, Chicago’s Davis Martin is trending in the wrong direction, giving up far too many runs recently and allowing way too much hard contact, which gives New York’s hitters a great matchup to work deep counts. Even with big stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger sidelined, New York’s supporting cast has produced, led by a hot Jasson Domínguez and Ben Rice setting the table. Chicago has home run power in Munetaka Murakami, but defensive misplays and a slump where they have lost four of their last five games have ruined their momentum. Chicago's closer, David Bednar, might be rested after working back-to-back nights, but New York’s setup relievers Angel Chivilli and Brent Headrick have been sharp enough to hold down the late innings. Back the superior starting pitcher to deliver and take the Yankees to win the game outright.

Yankees ML-149

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73%

MLB7:45 PM

Cubs @ Cardinals

Summer is in full swing tonight, and I expect Chicago to keep their momentum going and push their division rivals further into a midseason fire sale. The Cubs have heavily outscored St. Louis over the first two games of this series, powered by a deep offense that put up a massive run total yesterday without even needing a home run. The Cardinals are reeling, having lost nearly all of their recent games while trade chatter hangs over their clubhouse. Matthew Boyd takes the mound for Chicago on a long winning streak and incredible recent form. His ability to hit his spots with his changeup and rely on a sharp slider makes him a tough draw for a St. Louis lineup that is missing Lars Nootbaar and desperately searching for offense. Meanwhile, Cardinals starter Dustin May throws with impressive speed, but he gives up a lot of hard contact, making him vulnerable against a Chicago lineup that constantly puts the ball in play from top to bottom. Even with Nico Hoerner taking a routine day off, Chicago's offense remains dangerous with Alex Bregman staying red-hot and Pedro Ramírez stepping in smoothly. The Cardinals' bullpen has been overworked over the last couple of days, while Chicago's late-game relievers are completely rested behind a starter who routinely pitches deep into the game. With oddsmakers pricing this game as a coin flip, backing the hot visiting team is where the best value lies.

Cubs ML-111

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72%

MLB9:38 PM

Astros @ Angels

Last game of this series out in Anaheim, and my Astros are one win away from a sweep. They're also one win from getting back to an even record for the first time since the season's opening weeks, with the trade deadline right around the corner and first place in the division suddenly close enough to touch. The Angels have lost the first two games of this set by the skinniest of margins, both of them slipping away at the very end. Now they're handing the ball to Grayson Rodriguez, while Houston sends out Hayden Wesneski, who's pitching in the big leagues for the first time in well over a year. This pick starts and mostly ends with Rodriguez. He's been getting hammered all season — one of the worst run-prevention stretches you'll see from a starter. The fastball he throws more than any other pitch is getting crushed and almost nobody swings through it, and when hitters make contact, it's loud and it's in the air. That's a terrible combination against a Houston lineup built around the home run. Yordan Alvarez is having the best season of any hitter in the league and went deep in the very first inning last night. Jeremy Peña has been on an absolute tear for a couple of weeks, and Christian Walker and Taylor Trammell have both already homered in this series. Rodriguez hasn't even made it through five innings in either of his last two starts — he's been knocked out early and knocked around hard. And when he leaves early, the game goes to a thin Angels bullpen that just spent back-to-back nights sweating out close finishes. Meanwhile, the Angels' offense has gone quiet — they're barely scoring lately, they've managed almost nothing in this series, and the bottom of their lineup has been giving away at-bats for weeks. The honest worry is on Houston's side. Wesneski is coming off major elbow surgery, he won't be allowed to pitch deep into the game, and the relievers behind him — including their closer — have been worked hard all week. That's exactly why I'm not asking Houston to win by multiple runs: a rusty pitcher in his first game back can keep things closer than they should be. But the Angels hitters who've faced Wesneski before have barely touched him, and the big picture here favors the team that's been red-hot, hits the ball out of the park, and gets to face the weakest starting pitcher going tonight. Give me Houston to finish the sweep. Astros to win the game straight up.

Astros ML-126

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70%

MLB9:40 PM

Red Sox @ Athletics

It's a scorching hot night in West Sacramento with the wind blowing straight out toward center field — the kind of night where this little ballpark turns into a launching pad. And that's the worst possible night to be leaning on the shakiest bullpen in the game. Boston's long road winning streak ended Tuesday because Oakland's young starter threw the game of his life. Tonight the A's hand the ball to Jacob Lopez instead, and that's a whole different story: right-handed hitters have crushed him all year, and the Red Sox loaded their lineup with righties — even benching Duran and Yoshida — specifically to go after him. This batting order was built to beat this exact pitcher. The real story is the second half of the game. Boston's starter, Patrick Sandoval, is still working his way back from elbow surgery and hasn't pitched deep into any of his starts, so the Red Sox are basically planning on a bullpen night — and that's a fight they want. Their late-inning arms, led by Whitlock and Chapman, have been nearly impossible to score on for two weeks. The A's, meanwhile, are patching things together after losing Mark Leiter Jr. for the season to hip surgery, and their other key reliever is running on fumes after pitching two straight nights, including a rough finish Tuesday. If this game is close in the late innings, every matchup favors Boston: their hot righty bats against Oakland relievers who've been getting hit hard all year, while a cold A's lineup has to face the best late-game duo in baseball. In a hitter's park like this, the team with the worse relievers loses the end of the game. And the lineup Sandoval has to get through is running on empty. Their catcher is done for the year after knee surgery, Rooker has been out since early June, Jacob Wilson is ice cold at the plate, and Nick Kurtz — the one hitter who scares you — has struggled against lefties all season. Sandoval doesn't need to be great, just steady for four or five innings, and since coming back he's barely let anyone hit the ball hard. I thought hard about betting Boston to win by two or more, but in a park like this a one-run game can swing either way late, so I'd rather just bet them to win, period. Red Sox to win: the better team, the perfect lineup for the matchup, and a huge bullpen edge. That's a price I'll pay.

Red Sox ML-156

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68%

MLB10:10 PM

Mariners @ Dodgers

Tuesday night was a big one for Seattle — their closer blew the champs away late, and they finally won in this building after years of coming up empty. But wins like that cost you something, and tonight the bill comes due. They're deep into a long road trip, they just played an emotional nail-biter, and now they're facing a first-place team that just got its closer back and almost never drops two straight at home to these guys. The end of this game is where it tips. Seattle had to use up its best relievers to finish Tuesday — their closer especially had to grind for those final outs — so the guys left rested are the weaker arms, not the strong ones. The Dodgers' bullpen is the opposite: their top relievers are fresh, and their star closer just came back today after months out. I also don't buy Seattle's starter holding up against this lineup. His numbers look nice, but he leans on exactly the kinds of fastballs that the Dodgers' big lefty bats crush, and his best putaway pitch doesn't work as well against a lineup stacked with left-handed hitters. He's been giving up hard contact all year — it just hasn't shown up on the scoreboard yet. This is the lineup that makes him pay for it. Here's the thing — the Dodgers' starter isn't shutting anyone down either, and Seattle just launched a bunch of homers in this park, so paying a steep price just for the Dodgers to win feels like too much for a game that could get loud. I'd rather bet the Dodgers to win by at least two, which pays better. The likely story: their bats get to Seattle's starter the third time through the order, then feast on the tired leftovers of that bullpen while their own fresh relievers slam the door. A worn-down road team on the wrong side of that usually doesn't lose by just one. Dodgers by a couple, and I'll take the better payout for saying so.

Dodgers -1.5+113

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61%

Player props

MLB · Phillies @ Marlins

Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo has been surgical through July, dominant on the mound while bringing electric swing-and-miss stuff into every start. He has cleared 7.5 strikeouts in five of his last eight outings, including a 9-K performance against the Yankees and an 11-K gem against Cincinnati. Miami's lineup today features free-swinging profile bats like Heriberto Hernandez and Kyle Stowers who routinely chase out of the zone in two-strike counts. Getting plus-money on Luzardo to record 8 or more strikeouts against his former team is the cleanest edge on the board.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts+118

MLB · Phillies @ Marlins

Bryan De La Cruz

De La Cruz is riding a ridiculous hot streak, collecting eight hits in his last eleven official at-bats and eclipsing 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games. Today he gets Ryan Gusto, who allows a generous 43.9% hard-hit rate and works as a short opener before turning the game over to a depleted Marlins bullpen. Playing back in loanDepot park, +157 is generous value for De La Cruz to pick up a extra-base hit or multiple singles.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+157

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales is the hottest bat in this lineup and nobody's talking about him. He's 12 for his last 31, 18 for 49 over two weeks, and he's a career .325 hitter in day games — which is what this is, first pitch just after noon. Now hand him a lefty.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-153

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

This is the spot I circle before I even look at the price. Valdez against a left-handed starter is a different hitter — he's hitting .333 with seven homers in just 45 at-bats against lefties this year, and in day games he's slugging over 1.300 OPS territory. Today is both.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

MLB HR · Phillies @ Marlins

Heriberto Hernandez

Luzardo is a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate you're standing on. Right-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .250 average and 10 home runs in 340 at-bats this year, while lefties are hitting .168 against him with a single homer. Hernandez bats right-handed, and he's the one lefty-thumping angle on this Marlins lineup card that lines up with Luzardo's actual soft spot.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+560

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it. He's a right-handed bat with a huge track record against lefties (1.367 OPS, 7 homers in just 45 at-bats), and Eduardo Rodriguez throws left.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+341

MLB HR · Phillies @ Marlins

Bryce Harper

Harper's season-long split against right-handed pitching isn't close — .282 average, .989 OPS, 19 home runs in 234 at-bats. Gusto throws right-handed, and his ERA (4.50) and xERA (4.36) both say this is a get-to-able arm regardless of who's standing in the box, not just a name in the six-hole of the rotation.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+440

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Pirates

Corbin Carroll

Carroll's contact quality over the last week is the headline here — 96 mph average exit velocity with 5 barrels on just 23 balls in play. That's a hitter squaring the ball up right now, not just running good BABIP luck.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

MLB HR · Phillies @ Marlins

Trea Turner

Turner's last fifteen days stand out on this roster: four home runs, eight RBI, a .991 OPS. That's a real power stretch, not a one-game blip, even though the very last week cooled off (four hits in 25 at-bats with no homers). Power surges in a leadoff bat tend to run in patches like this, and I'd rather look at the fifteen-day window than chase the most recent quiet week in isolation.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

MLB · Blue Jays @ Nationals

CJ Abrams

Abrams is the hottest hitter on either roster and he's drawing the softest matchup on the board. He's 13 for his last 25 with three homers this week, hitting well over .400 for two weeks with seven home runs in that stretch, and he's a completely different animal against right-handed pitching — near a 1.000 OPS with 22 of his homers off righties. Now he gets Zack Littell, who's been getting barreled at an alarming rate and whose fastball and sinker are the two pitches Abrams punishes most.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+124

MLB · Blue Jays @ Nationals

Trey Yesavage

Yesavage's July has been messy, but the mess is walks, not whiffs — and this prop pays on whiffs. He's punched out nine in each of his last two starts, one of them in just four innings, because the splitter and slider are still generating swing-and-miss at rates most starters can't touch.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+106

MLB · Braves @ Mets

Tyrone Taylor

Taylor is the hottest bat in Queens right now — 5-for-10 with two homers and eight RBI over the last week, including a three-run shot in Monday's 14-3 burial of this same Atlanta club. He's a different hitter in the afternoon and a different hitter at home, and today is both.

OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI-160

MLB · Braves @ Mets

Francisco Alvarez

Alvarez has cleared this number in ten of his last fifteen, and he's swinging as well as he has all season — .350 with three homers over the last two weeks and loud contact when he connects. He gets a right-hander making his first start in fourteen months, which means either Alvarez sees him fresh off a long layoff or he's into a bullpen that's been leaking for a month. Batting ninth caps the at-bats, which is why this pays plus money on a bar he's been clearing routinely, and why I'm sized at the lower end of my card rather than off it. Two combined hits, runs, and RBI at plus-130 with the bat this warm is a price I'll take.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+130

MLB · Orioles @ Tigers

Tarik Skubal

Look at the lineup Baltimore is running out there today: eight right-handed bats plus switch-hitting Leody Taveras, with Rutschman, Basallo, and Westburg all shelved. Skubal is holding righties to a .193 average and a .573 OPS this year, and his changeup — over half swing-and-miss when hitters offer at it — is exactly the pitch that ties up a righty-heavy order.

OVER 8.5 Strikeouts+102

MLB · Orioles @ Tigers

Hao-Yu Lee

Nobody in this game is swinging it like Hao-Yu Lee right now — 8-for-18 over the last week with two homers, a 95 mph average exit velocity, and four barrels in his last 16 balls in play. That's not a lucky stretch, that's a hitter squaring everything up.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+150

MLB · Brewers @ Giants

Brice Turang

Turang is the hottest bat on either side of this game — 10 for his last 22 with a three-hit night in this same park yesterday — and Webb happens to be the one Giants arm he's always squared up: 4 for 9 lifetime with extra bases in there. The matchup fits, too.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

MLB · Brewers @ Giants

Logan Webb

Nineteen-plus outs in six of Webb's last eight starts, and the last three read 18, 20, 21. Now look at the spot. San Francisco's bullpen had to cover more than five innings last night after Roupp lasted eleven outs — Brubaker emptied the tank with 57 pitches, Foley threw 33 — and there's a flight to San Diego right after this one with no off day.

OVER 18.5 Pitcher Outs+145

MLB · Rockies @ Padres

Ty France

France has cleared this number in 13 of his last 15 games, and nothing about today's spot slows him down. He's hitting .362 over two weeks with five homers, he's a better hitter in day games (.305 with a .957 OPS in daylight), and he bats cleanup behind Tatis, Cronenworth, and Machado — three guys reaching base constantly right now, which keeps feeding him RBI chances. Hughes has pitched well, but he's a rookie going about five innings, and once he's out this becomes France against a Rockies bullpen that's been bleeding runs all year and emptied five arms into last night's 8-7 loss. Four or five plate appearances, half of them likely against tired relief — two of hits, runs, and RBI is the right side at this price.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-125

MLB · Rockies @ Padres

Manny Machado

This is a pitch-mix bet. Hughes throws his four-seamer almost 60% of the time and it sits under 93 — and Machado is slugging .664 against four-seamers this year with the best expected numbers on his card against that exact pitch.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+114

MLB · Rangers @ Rays

Ezequiel Duran

Ezequiel Duran has been scorching at the plate, hitting .381 with a 1.185 OPS over his last seven games. Slotting into the two-hole today, he is in prime position to produce.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+108

MLB · Rangers @ Rays

Chandler Simpson

MacKenzie Gore has noticeable reverse splits this season, struggling much more against left-handed hitters (.287 AVG allowed) than righties (.226 AVG allowed). Chandler Simpson swings from the left side and has been a machine lately, batting .410 over his last 15 games. Even out of the six-hole, Simpson’s contact skills and blazing speed make him a constant threat to manufacture runs. At -105, we just need him to keep putting the ball in play against a starter who gives up comfortable contact to lefties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-105

MLB HR · Rockies @ Padres

Jackson Merrill

Merrill's white hot right now and it's not empty contact — five homers and a 1.120 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the exit-velocity readings back it up instead of arguing with it. He's squaring up close to a fifth of his balls in play the last week, which is a real number, not a hot-streak mirage.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · Rockies @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado's rolling right alongside Merrill — four homers in his last fifteen, barreling the ball at a rate that says this isn't luck. What sells me here is the matchup: Hughes lives on his four-seamer, throws it almost six times out of ten, and that's the exact pitch Machado's done his most damage on all year, by a wide margin over anything else he sees. When a hot hitter's swing lines up with a rookie's most-used pitch this cleanly, I want in at plus money, third in the order with traffic ahead of him.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Wyatt Langford

Legumina opens this one, and beyond his fastball the two pitches he leans on are a sinker and a slider that have gotten hit hard all season. Langford has been squaring up exactly that shape of pitch since July started, and his exit velocity over the last week is the loudest read on this whole board. He doesn't need the platoon to break his way, either — he's produced against lefties and righties both this year. Tampa Bay is stitching this start together with a handful of arms rather than trusting one pitcher through the lineup, and Langford is the bat most likely to make somebody pay for the mistake that creates.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+396

MLB HR · Braves @ Mets

Francisco Lindor

I love a good batter-versus-pitcher history when there is actual meat on the bone, and 38 career at-bats is plenty of sample size. Francisco Lindor has seen a lot of Chris Sale over the years, taking the lefty deep twice while racking up 14 hits for a .368 average.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Braves @ Mets

Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin is hitting leadoff for the Braves tonight and comes into this one swinging a very heavy bat. He's crushed five homers over the last two weeks and holds a robust .916 OPS against righties on the season. We get him against Christian Scott, who has been solid overall but shows a glaring split when it comes to power: he's surrendered six homers to left-handed batters in 150 at-bats compared to just one against righties. Hitting in the leadoff spot guarantees Baldwin maximum volume at the plate, and given how well he's driving the ball right now, +400 is a great price to back him to extend his power surge against a starter who is vulnerable to lefty pop.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

MLB HR · Rockies @ Padres

Ty France

Ty France has gone deep five times in his last fifteen games, matching the loudest recent power on this whole board, and the underlying contact backs it up — he's still driving the ball hard, not just getting lucky bounces. He's also been a notably better hitter in day games specifically, and this one starts at 1:10 in the afternoon out there. Cleanup spot, steady at-bats, and a price that isn't fully respecting how loud his bat has been the last two weeks. I'll take that gap.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Jake Burger

Burger's barrel rate over the last couple weeks is the best number on this board, and he already has two home runs in his last seven games to show for it. The swing is aggressive enough that he'll miss his share and chase out of the zone more than most hitters here, but the contact he is making has real carry behind it, not just results that happened to fall in. Tampa Bay running a bullpen game means more arms and more different looks than a hitter usually gets in one night, which is exactly the kind of night that produces one mistake pitch — and Burger has been punishing those all month.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB HR · Brewers @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Devers is the one bat on this Giants roster still doing damage right now — two homers and seven driven in over his last week, and it isn't cheap contact. He's been squaring balls up consistently, averaging north of 94 off the bat with real hard contact mixed in, the kind of quality that turns into balls landing in the bay, not warning-track outs.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Ezequiel Duran

The angle here is the platoon. Right-handed hitters have done real damage against Legumina this season, and Duran is a right-handed bat running hot at the right time — two home runs in his last week with hard contact behind them, not cheap ones. He won't see Legumina deep into the night, Tampa Bay is easing him out early, but hitting second in this order means Duran gets him right away, first time through, before the roles change. That specific a matchup, on a bat this locked in, is worth the price here.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

MLB HR · Rockies @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis just had the first five-hit game of his career and he's reaching base at a huge clip right now, so I'm not fading him. The one thing keeping this from being a bigger bet for me is that his hard contact lately has mostly been singles and line drives rather than the barreled-up drives that turn into homers — last night was five hits and zero of them left the ground. He's an everyday superstar leading off against a rookie arm that hasn't had to get him out yet in the big leagues, and at this price I still want a piece of it, just not my top play tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Braves @ Mets

Tyrone Taylor

Chris Sale is having a monster season, and the market is pricing him like he's completely unhittable tonight. I get it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Rockies @ Padres

Mickey Moniak

Moniak went deep in this exact series last night, and he's shown real pop the last couple weeks. Tonight's pitching plan means Hart — the tough left-on-left matchup for him — is only good for an inning or two before this turns into a bulk-innings assignment for whoever follows, so the at-bats that decide this prop mostly won't come against the arm that actually gives him trouble. That's a structural gap in how this game gets pitched, not just a hot-hand play, and it's the kind of price I'll take a swing at.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Guardians @ Reds

Brady Singer

Cincinnati's bullpen is completely spent. Yesterday they threw a bullpen game in Game 2 of a doubleheader, eating through five different relievers to complete the shutout.

OVER 16.5 Pitcher Outs-101

MLB · Guardians @ Reds

Jose Ramirez

Some batters just see certain pitchers well, and Ramirez has Singer's number on speed dial. In 29 career at-bats against the righty, Ramirez has 12 hits, including three homers, good for a .414 average and a 1.334 OPS. While J-Ram's bat has been a little quiet this past week, a matchup against Singer in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park is exactly what he needs to wake up. At plus money, I'm happily backing the history here.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+104

MLB · Royals @ Twins

Trevor Larnach

Randy Dobnak’s 1.42 ERA is completely smoke and mirrors right now. The guy is sitting on a 5.06 xERA, a 41% hard-hit rate allowed, and a primary sinker that is getting mashed to the tune of a .413 xwOBA.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+106

MLB · Royals @ Twins

Joe Ryan

The narrative heading into tonight is that Joe Ryan has struggled against Kansas City this season, but look at who is actually stepping into the box. No Bobby Witt Jr., no Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia is still on a rehab assignment.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+107

MLB · Yankees @ White Sox

Ben Rice

With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, Ben Rice has stepped up, and tonight he gets an absolute dream matchup against Davis Martin. Rice has been mashing right-handed pitching all year, carrying an OPS over 1.000 in the split. What makes this spot even better is the pitch mix.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+119

MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki has cleared this number in 14 of his last 15 games. That hit rate alone makes the -110 price tag look like a mistake on the board.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Alex Bregman

Bregman is currently seeing beach balls at the plate. He comes into tonight with seven hits in his last ten at-bats over the first two games of this series, scoring five runs in the process. Hitting cleanup in a lineup that is generating this much traffic means he is constantly walking to the box in run-producing situations. Getting plus money on a guy who is swinging it this well to combine for just two hits, runs, and RBIs is exactly the kind of value I look for to round out the card.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+101

MLB HR · Royals @ Twins

Salvador Perez

Joe Ryan just got hit for three home runs in a single start nine days ago, and the shape of his season backs up why: he's a fly-ball pitcher who's letting opponents barrel him up over eleven percent of the time and hit the ball hard over forty percent of the time. That's a pitcher grooving one over the fence more often than his ERA suggests he should be.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+479

MLB HR · Guardians @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

Cantillo's a different pitcher depending on who's standing in the box. He's given up a .774 OPS and ten home runs to right-handed hitters this year, against a .701 OPS and three homers to lefties — and De La Cruz swings right-handed against a left-hander, which puts him on the side of that split that's done the damage. It also happens to be his strong side regardless of who's pitching: 1.061 OPS with eight home runs in 95 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Royals @ Twins

Trevor Larnach

Randy Dobnak's ERA says he's been nearly unhittable this year. The contact he's allowing says otherwise — hitters are running a .343 expected weighted average against him, more than fifty points above what he's actually giving up, and his sinker, the pitch he leans on four out of every ten times, is getting hit at a .413 expected clip.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Yankees @ White Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is the hottest bat in that lineup right now and it isn't close. He hit two home runs in a single game against Houston recently, and the contact he's making the last couple weeks has been loud even in the at-bats that didn't leave the yard — legitimate barrels, not seeing-eye hits.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

MLB HR · Cubs @ Cardinals

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Dustin May has a real platoon problem this season — left-handed bats are hitting .289 with five homers off him in 232 at-bats, more than double the home run rate he's allowing right-handers. The two pitches he throws most after his four-seamer, the cutter and the sinker, are also the two he's getting hit hardest on, and that damage skews toward left-handed swings.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Guardians @ Reds

Kyle Manzardo

Singer's platoon split is about as clean as you'll see on a given night — .864 OPS and fifteen home runs allowed to left-handed hitters this season, .715 OPS and six to righties. Manzardo hits left-handed, and he's a five-for-seven career hitter off Singer specifically. He put a grand slam into the seats last night, and it wasn't an accident — over his last ten balls in play he's averaging 95.9 mph off the bat with two barreled balls, both the best marks on this roster right now. This is the shortest price on the board tonight, so the market's clearly seeing the same shape, but the underlying swing quality is real enough that I still want a piece of it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+320

MLB HR · Royals @ Twins

Kody Clemens

Clemens is squaring the ball up better than anyone in this Twins lineup right now — nearly ninety-four miles an hour off the bat on average over his last stretch, with most of his contact qualifying as hard-hit. That's not an average-driven hot streak, that's real bat speed showing up in the exit numbers.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

MLB HR · Yankees @ White Sox

Ben Rice

Rice has been ordinary for a couple weeks now, but that's been about singles, not power — the home run stroke hasn't gone anywhere, and tonight sets up well for it to show. He's always done his best work against right-handed pitching, and Davis Martin is a right-hander who hasn't completed six innings in any of his last three starts, still hunting his first win since early June. When a starter's in that kind of stretch, mistakes tend to creep in early, and Rice bats second, so he'll see him before the game settles down. He's swinging and missing more than usual the last couple weeks, so I won't pretend this is clean, but at this price I like the power showing up against a pitcher still searching for his rhythm.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

MLB HR · Royals @ Twins

Lane Thomas

Thomas has three home runs in his last fifteen games, the best home run rate of anyone on this board, and he hit one just three days ago in Detroit. That's a bat that's found its stroke. Joe Ryan tends to be tougher on right-handers than lefties, so this isn't the friendliest platoon look, but Ryan is walking into tonight off a start where he allowed three home runs in four innings, and the underlying numbers — a career-high hard-hit rate allowed, a barrel rate over eleven percent — say that wasn't a fluke, it's where his season is trending. A hitter this hot against a pitcher this generous with the long ball is worth paying for, even at a longer number like plus-630.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+630

MLB HR · Cubs @ Cardinals

Michael Busch

The same crack in Dustin May's game that makes Crow-Armstrong interesting applies to Busch — left-handed hitters have gone deep on him at more than twice the rate right-handers have, largely on the cutter and sinker, the two pitches in his mix drawing the hardest contact. Busch already has two home runs in his last fifteen games, and the quality of contact behind that stretch is solid — ten hard-hit balls and two barrels across his last twenty-five balls in play, a better level than his quiet .543 OPS over the last week alone would suggest. There's no personal history between him and May to lean on, and he's facing the same modest wind blowing in from right field as Crow-Armstrong tonight, but the matchup shape and the underlying contact trend are enough to like this at plus-money.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

MLB HR · Guardians @ Reds

Eugenio Suarez

Suarez sat the nightcap yesterday and steps back into the middle of the order tonight, having gone deep in six of his last fifteen games. Cantillo has been a much different pitcher against right-handed bats than lefties all season — ten home runs allowed to righties against three to lefties, a real gap on a real number of at-bats.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Royals @ Twins

Jac Caglianone

Caglianone is 0-for-12 over his last week, and I'm not going to pretend that's nothing. But the exit velocity hasn't gone anywhere — he's still averaging over ninety-four miles an hour off the bat during this cold stretch, which tells me the swing is fine and the results just haven't matched it yet. Against right-handers this year he's got eleven home runs and a well-above-actual expected slug, and Joe Ryan is a pitcher who's given up a home run roughly every twenty at-bats to lefties this season. A correction is coming for both sides of this matchup, his cold streak and Ryan's homer rate, and plus-350 is a fair price to be there when it does.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

MLB · Astros @ Angels

Jeremy Pena

Pena is hitting .439 with five homers over his last 15 games and his contact quality backs it up — he's averaging 93 mph off the bat with a dozen hard-hit balls in that stretch. Tonight he leads off against a fastball-heavy righty, which means the most plate appearances on the team against a four-seamer Pena hits at a .380 clip.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-101

MLB · Astros @ Angels

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez leads the American League in all three triple-crown categories and is hitting .385 over his last 15. Tonight he gets a right-hander he's built to destroy: Rodriguez leans on a 96-mph four-seamer that's getting hit at .381, and Alvarez slugs .755 against four-seamers.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-140

MLB HR · Astros @ Angels

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez hit his league-leading 35th homer last night, a 427-foot shot, and tonight the matchup gets friendlier. Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher — his ground-to-air ratio is 0.58 — allowing barrels on more than ten percent of contact, and his primary fastball is the exact pitch Alvarez slugs .755 against. Lefties have already taken him deep four times this year in limited work. A guy who has homered in roughly a third of Houston's games, in peak form, against a flyball arm whose heater can't miss bats — at 2-to-1, I want the swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+200

MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Ceddanne Rafaela

Rafaela is the Red Sox bat I want tonight. Three homers in the past week, four RBIs in this series already including the grand slam that won Monday's game, and a career lean toward left-handed pitching — .280 with an .854 OPS against southpaws.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-120

MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Andruw Monasterio

Nobody on either roster is seeing the ball better than Monasterio — he's hitting .450 over the past two weeks, and it isn't cheap contact luck: he's chasing almost nothing out of the zone and squaring up what's in it. That discipline profile is exactly how you punish Jacob Lopez, a lefty who falls behind hitters constantly and whose fastball gets hit at nearly .290 when he has to come into the zone.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

MLB · Mariners @ Dodgers

Tommy Edman

Hancock's ERA says 3.16 but the contact he's giving up says mid-fours — a 43 percent hard-hit rate and nine homers to left-handed bats. Edman hits left-handed tonight, and that's the version of him batting .370 with a .946 OPS against righties, .349 at Chavez Ravine, .370 at night.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

MLB · Mariners @ Dodgers

Freddie Freeman

Freeman is seeing it as well as he has all season — 12 hits in his last 21 at-bats, .385 over two weeks. Now he draws a fastball-first righty: Hancock lives on the four-seam and sinker, and Freeman hits .344 with a .624 slug against four-seamers, .326 against right-handed pitching overall. He doesn't need to run into one for this to cash — he's spraying singles, and two knocks does the job. At +185 the price treats a multi-hit game like a long shot when it's been closer to his nightly routine, and once Seattle's taxed bullpen takes over, the at-bats only get friendlier.

OVER 1.5 Hits+185

MLB HR · Mariners @ Dodgers

Dominic Canzone

Canzone doesn't sit against lefties anymore — both of last night's homers came left-on-left, 433 and 414 feet, dead center. Tonight it's Eric Lauer, a soft-tossing lefty who's been worse against left-handed bats than righties, allowing an .820 OPS to them, with 20 homers surrendered in 82 innings.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+376

Hub research

183

starter_team_recordSEA @ LAD
Dodgers 8-0 in Eric Lauer's last 8 starts
8-0 with Lauer on the mound speaks for itself. He starts tonight against a Seattle lineup, so it's worth checking whether this is really about him or about the offense that's been backing him.
starter_team_recordCHC @ STL
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Boyd's last 8, winners of seven straight starts for him. That's the kind of run that makes you want to know if it's the pitching or the lineup carrying it.
starter_team_recordTOR @ WSH
Nationals 1-7 in Zack Littell's last 8 starts
1-7 with Littell going, losers of four straight when he's out there. Toronto's lineup gets a look at him tonight and that platoon stuff below matters more than the record does.
starter_team_recordARI @ PIT
Diamondbacks 6-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 7 starts
Arizona's 6-1 with E-Rod going, three straight wins in his starts. Worth checking whether Pittsburgh's lineup construction gives him trouble regardless of that recent run.
platoon_edgeTOR @ WSH
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 2nd against Zack Littell (RHP)
Lukes has hammered right-handed pitching all year and he's locked in against Littell tonight hitting second. The split here is real, not noise — .807 over almost 200 at-bats.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
starter_team_recordPHI @ MIA
Phillies 6-1 in Jesus Luzardo's last 7 starts
Luzardo's teams have won six of his last seven. He's on the bump for Philly tonight against Miami, and that kind of run record on a start-by-start basis is worth tracking as the season goes.
streakingNYY @ CHW
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Yankees games have gone under six straight, running about 6.5 a night against a 9.5 average line. Tonight's number sits at 7.5, so the market's already adjusted some.
P final total 11 vs 7.5
bullpen_fatigueTOR @ WSH
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto's pen has thrown 15.7 innings over three games with four arms doing double duty. That's a taxed bullpen walking into Washington tonight.
heat_checkTOR @ WSH
CJ Abrams: 1.458 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is running a 1.458 OPS the last two weeks against a .932 season number — that's a real gap, not a blip. 27 homers already and a 1.5 total bases number tonight for him.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHW
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Antonacci hits right-handers a lot better than lefties — .852 OPS versus .518 — and he leads off against the right-handed Schlittler tonight. Straightforward, favorable split.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
platoon_edgeBAL @ DET
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Mayo's numbers against lefties are eye-popping, over 1.000 OPS, and he draws Skubal tonight from the six-spot. The split's legitimate at 82 at-bats.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offTEX @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .453 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Diaz has cooled off hard the last two weeks, a .453 OPS nowhere near his .833 season number. He draws lefty MacKenzie Gore tonight, and even though Diaz still hits .808 against left-handers, that's the softer of his two splits.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIL @ SF
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Webb's a right-hander, and that happens to be Turang's better side — .921 OPS against righties leading off, versus .569 against lefties. Clean matchup for him at the top of the order.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
platoon_edgeARI @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Valdez has feasted on lefties — 1.367 OPS in 45 at-bats — and he gets exactly that tonight from Rodriguez in the four-hole. Worth a look at how Arizona lines him up.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueNYY @ CHW
New York Yankees pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Yankees pen sitting at 14 innings over three games with five arms doubled up — that's about as taxed as a bullpen gets before a getaway spot.
cut_listLAA tonight
Grayson Rodriguez
Starts tonight for LAA — 7.82 xERA behind a 8.54 ERA.
bullpen_fatigueCLE @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cincinnati's bullpen has logged 15.3 innings over its last three with four arms worked multiple times. That's fatigue walking into tonight against Cleveland.
ownedCLE @ CIN
Jose Ramirez vs Brady Singer: .414
Ramirez has flat-out owned Brady Singer over the years — 12-for-29 with three homers, a .414 mark in a matchup that's happened enough to matter. He's cold right now, though, just a .459 OPS over his last 15 days, so tonight's a real test of history versus current form.
P 2-for-6, 2 TB
regression_watchKC @ MIN
Randy Dobnak: 1.42 ERA vs 5.06 xERA
Dobnak's sitting on a 1.42 ERA against a 5.06 expected number — a gap over three and a half runs. Lines are built off the ERA, so it's worth checking what's actually been happening in the box scores.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
gary_hr_threatsAstros @ Angels
Yordan Alvarez
Gary's Take He's the best hitter on the planet right now — thirty-five home runs, leading the league in every Triple Crown category, and he went deep again just last night. That's the baseline.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
head_to_headCOL @ SD
Padres are 7-3 vs Rockies this season
Padres have run away with this season series, 7-3 over Colorado, though San Diego needed a shootout to win the last one 8-7. History says one thing, recent form says these two can go back and forth.
starter_team_recordNYY @ CHW
White Sox 2-6 in Davis Martin's last 8 starts
The White Sox are 2-6 with Martin on the mound over his last eight starts, losers of four in a row in his outings. His last three starts have been a 6.14 ERA, so this isn't just the offense leaving him out to dry.
platoon_edgePHI @ MIA
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper mashes righties — .989 OPS over 234 at-bats — and Gusto's a righty tonight. That's about as clean a platoon setup as you'll see on this slate.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB
head_to_headCLE @ CIN
Guardians are 6-2 vs Reds this season
Guardians up 6-2 on the season against Cincinnati but the Reds took the last meeting 2-0 — that's a revenge spot sitting right there tonight.
park_weatherBAL @ DET
Wind blowing out 16 mph at Comerica Park tonight
Wind's blowing out to right at 16 miles an hour in Detroit tonight. Comerica doesn't usually let balls carry like that, so it's a night to watch fly-ball hitters a little closer. Total sits at 7.5.
P final total 19 vs 7.5 (over lean)
starter_team_recordPHI @ MIA
Marlins 2-6 in Ryan Gusto's last 8 starts
Marlins are 2-6 with Gusto going, losers of five straight in his starts. He's out there tonight against Philly and this stretch is one to watch closely.
starter_team_recordATL @ NYM
Mets 6-2 in Christian Scott's last 8 starts
Scott doesn't get the attention some of the bigger arms do, but the Mets are 6-2 in his last eight starts. That's a legitimate number for a guy who flies under the radar.
heat_checkATL @ NYM
Drake Baldwin: 1.287 OPS in Last 15 Days
Baldwin's running a 1.287 OPS over his last two weeks against an .851 season mark — he's clearly seeing it well right now. 20 homers on the year and a 1.5 total bases number tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offTEX @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .425 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Aranda's in a rough stretch — .425 OPS the last two weeks against .817 for the season. He also draws Gore, and left-handers are already the tougher side of his split (.653 OPS), so tonight doesn't hand him an easy reset.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeBOS @ OAK
Wilyer Abreu (bats L) draws Jacob Lopez (LHP), batting 3rd
Abreu's split actually runs backwards from the norm — a lefty bat who's done more damage against left-handed pitching, .999 OPS there against .651 versus righties. Lopez throws left, so the matchup favors him tonight anyway, just not for the usual reason.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
heat_checkCOL @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.120 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's had an up-and-down season, but the last two weeks have been a different level — 1.120 OPS against a .681 mark for the year. Fifteen homers now, and he looks like he's in one of those stretches where everything's landing.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
heat_checkHOU @ LAA
Jeremy Pena: 1.294 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been hot for a while — 1.294 OPS over his last 41 plate appearances against an already-solid .863 season mark. Eleven homers on the year, and he's got a 1.5 total-bases number on the board tonight.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
bullpen_fatigueARI @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh's bullpen has thrown 15.7 innings over three games with three arms doing it more than once. Worth watching how deep Jared Jones needs to go tonight given that.
platoon_edgeKC @ MIN
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Larnach leading off against a right-hander is the matchup he wants — .868 OPS there compared to .602 against lefties, even in a smaller sample on that side. Dobnak's the one on the mound, whatever you make of his season-long numbers elsewhere.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
streakingCOL @ SD
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Colorado's gone under five straight, averaging 12.2 runs a game against lines near 14.3. Tonight's total sits at 8.5, so the number's already come way down from where those unders were hitting.
P final total 4 vs 8
bullpen_fatigueCHC @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cardinals pen at 16.7 innings across three games with two arms doubling up — that's a bullpen that's been leaned on heading into the Cubs series.
rest_fatigueCOL @ SD
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
San Diego's pen has absorbed 16.7 innings in three games, Sears and Peralta carrying the heaviest loads. Colorado's pen is fresher by comparison at 9.3 over the same stretch.
P flagged side won 1-3
rest_fatigueCHC @ STL
16.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
St. Louis's bullpen has worked 16.7 innings over three games with Dobbins and Bruihl shouldering the most. Chicago's pen sits lighter at 10.3 over that same span.
P flagged side won 2-3
gary_hr_threatsAstros @ Angels
Jeremy Pena
Gary's Take Pena isn't a name that usually shows up on a home run board at plus-500, and that's exactly why I like it. He's hit five home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week, and his average exit velocity on balls in play has jumped into the low nineties — that's a guy squaring the ball up, not running hot on bloopers.
P 1 HR — 1-for-5, 4 TB
head_to_headATL @ NYM
Mets are 6-3 vs Braves this season
The Mets have won this season series 6-3 over Atlanta and took the most recent meeting too, 3-2. Nine games in, that's a firm advantage in the head-to-head this year.
bullpen_fatigueARI @ PIT
Arizona Diamondbacks pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Arizona's bullpen has thrown 12.7 innings over three games with five different arms working more than once. Spread thin rather than overworked on any single arm.
platoon_edgeTOR @ WSH
Yohendrick Pinango (bats L) hits 1st against Zack Littell (RHP)
Pinango's clear split favors right-handers — .745 OPS over 132 at-bats — and he leads off against Littell, a righty, tonight. The at-bat count's solid enough to trust.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ LAA
Christian Walker
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.82 xERA) — .766 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ LAA
Isaac Paredes
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.82 xERA) — .770 OPS, bats 3rd.
head_to_headNYY @ CHW
Yankees are 4-1 vs White Sox this season
Yankees have the season series 4-1 over the White Sox and took the last meeting 3-2. That's a series they've handled comfortably all year.
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ White Sox
Ben Rice
Gary's Take The Yankees' lineup is missing some serious hardware right now with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and now Cody Bellinger all on the shelf. That puts the offensive burden squarely on the guys left at the top of the card.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCOL @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.131 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's a different hitter the last couple weeks — 1.131 OPS against a .615 mark that's dragged down his season line. Only 31 plate appearances in that window, so it's a small sample, but that's a sharp turnaround.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRockies @ Padres
Jackson Merrill
Gary's Take Merrill's white hot right now and it's not empty contact — five homers and a 1.120 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the exit-velocity readings back it up instead of arguing with it. He's squaring up close to a fifth of his balls in play the last week, which is a real number, not a hot-streak mirage.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offPHI @ MIA
Brandon Marsh: .346 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Gusto
Marsh has cooled hard — .346 OPS the last two weeks against a .779 season number — but he draws Gusto tonight, a righty, which happens to be his better side at .831 for the year. Conflicting signals worth untangling.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsGuardians @ Reds
Elly De La Cruz
Gary's Take De La Cruz turns into a completely different hitter against left-handers — over a thousand OPS and eight home runs in less than a hundred at-bats against lefty pitching this season. Cantillo throws left-handed, and he leans on a four-seamer that gets hit hard by the league at large; De La Cruz specifically has done real damage against that exact pitch.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueBAL @ DET
Baltimore Orioles pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore Orioles's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
rest_fatigueTOR @ WSH
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Toronto's pen has worked 15.7 innings over three games, Van Eyk and Little the heaviest users. Washington's bullpen is right there too at 14.7 — both sides walking in tired.
P flagged side won 5-2
rest_fatigueBOS @ OAK
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Oakland's pen sits at 15.7 innings over three games, Morales and Barnett the busiest arms. Boston's bullpen has been used less at 12.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-2
rest_fatigueARI @ PIT
PIT's pen has logged 15.7 innings across its last 3 games
Pittsburgh's pen sits at 15.7 innings over three games, Eisert and Mlodzinski the busiest arms. Arizona's bullpen is a bit fresher at 12.7 over the same stretch.
P flagged side lost 3-0
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Twins
Salvador Perez
Gary's Take Joe Ryan just got hit for three home runs in a single start nine days ago, and the shape of his season backs up why: he's a fly-ball pitcher who's letting opponents barrel him up over eleven percent of the time and hit the ball hard over forty percent of the time. That's a pitcher grooving one over the fence more often than his ERA suggests he should be.
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 4 TB
rest_fatigueCLE @ CIN
CIN's pen has logged 15.3 innings across its last 3 games
Cincinnati's bullpen has thrown 15.3 innings over three games with Franco and Burke carrying the load. Cleveland's pen has been way lighter at just 6.7 over that same stretch — a real gap.
P flagged side lost 6-1
cut_listWSH tonight
Zack Littell
Starts tonight for WSH — 6.28 xERA behind a 5.17 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
heat_checkPHI @ MIA
Trea Turner: .991 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's been locked in — .991 OPS over his last 45 plate appearances against a .676 season mark. That's a real hot stretch and he's got a 1.5 total bases number tonight.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
rest_fatigueBAL @ DET
BAL's bullpen has covered 15 innings over the last 3 games
Baltimore's bullpen has covered 15 innings over three games with Walker and Suarez the heaviest arms. Detroit's pen is noticeably fresher at 10.7 over that stretch.
P flagged side won 10-9
gary_hr_threatsRockies @ Padres
Manny Machado
Gary's Take Machado's rolling right alongside Merrill — four homers in his last fifteen, barreling the ball at a rate that says this isn't luck. What sells me here is the matchup: Hughes lives on his four-seamer, throws it almost six times out of ten, and that's the exact pitch Machado's done his most damage on all year, by a wide margin over anything else he sees.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offPHI @ MIA
Xavier Edwards: .475 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jesus Luzardo
Edwards has gone cold — .475 OPS the last two weeks versus .775 for the season — and he draws Luzardo tonight, a lefty, which is already his tougher side at .773 for the year. Two things working against him at once.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherARI @ PIT
Wind blowing out 14 mph at PNC Park tonight
Wind blowing out at 10 mph in Pittsburgh with a total sitting at 8.5. That's the kind of night air gets talked about in the dugout before first pitch.
P final total 3 vs 8.5 (over lean)
gary_hr_threatsBraves @ Mets
Francisco Lindor
Gary's Take Lindor is doing exactly what a switch-hitter running hot looks like — two homers and six knocked in over his last week, three bombs and eleven RBI over his last fifteen days, an OPS over 1.000 in both windows. That's not a hot single game, that's a sustained stretch of squaring the ball up.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingTEX @ TB
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Texas games have gone over four straight, running 9.3 combined runs a game against lines averaging 7.5. Tonight's number sits at 7.5 too, so the market hasn't budged much despite the streak.
P final total 3 vs 7.5
heat_checkTEX @ TB
Nick Fortes: 1.251 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fortes has been red hot in a smaller sample — 1.251 OPS over his last 26 plate appearances, way up from a .708 season mark. His total-bases number tonight is set at 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsHOU @ LAA
Taylor Trammell
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.82 xERA) — .715 OPS, bats 6th.
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHW
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.749 OPS, 255 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (36 AB). Tonight's starter Cam Schlittler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsBlue Jays @ Nationals
CJ Abrams
Gary's Take Abrams is doing everything right at the plate right now — 20 hits in his last 46 at-bats with 7 home runs, a .435 average over that stretch. That's not a one-week blip, it carries into his full-season shape against right-handed pitching too: nearly a 1.000 OPS with 22 homers in 267 at-bats against RHP, and Yesavage is a righty.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offNYY @ CHW
Tristan Peters: .334 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
Peters has fallen off hard the last two weeks, a .334 OPS against a .768 season number. He does draw a right-hander tonight in Schlittler, though, and right-handed pitching is where Peters has actually done his damage all year (.819 OPS).
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
ownedATL @ NYM
Marcus Semien vs Chris Sale: .333
Semien's had Chris Sale's number for a while — 6-for-18 with a couple of walks mixed in, a 1.233 OPS in a meaningful sample of history between them. He's swinging a hot bat right now too (.802 OPS, last 15 days), so the recent form and the track record line up.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ MIA
Heriberto Hernandez (bats R) hits 2nd against Jesus Luzardo (LHP)
Hernandez's platoon numbers against lefties are strong — .921 OPS over 89 at-bats — and he hits second against Luzardo, a lefty, tonight. Clean lineup setup for him.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
gary_hr_threatsBlue Jays @ Nationals
James Wood
Gary's Take Wood is a different hitter against right-handers than lefties, and today he gets a righty. Against RHP this season he's slugging over 1.000 with 21 home runs in 262 at-bats — that's his true ceiling, not his season-long blended line.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offTOR @ WSH
James Wood: .639 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Trey Yesavage
Wood's cooled off — .639 OPS over his last two weeks against a .946 season mark — but he draws Yesavage tonight, a righty, which is actually his strongest side at over 1.000 for the year. Worth watching which version shows up.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchARI @ PIT
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.64 ERA vs 5 xERA
E-Rod's 2.64 ERA sits almost two and a half runs under his 4.99 expected mark. That's one of the bigger gaps on the slate tonight and lines are still built off the shinier number.
P 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Marlins
Heriberto Hernandez
Gary's Take Luzardo is a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate you're standing on. Right-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .250 average and 10 home runs in 340 at-bats this year, while lefties are hitting .168 against him with a single homer.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB
regression_watchBOS @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 6.12 ERA vs 3.87 xERA
Lopez's 6.12 ERA is running over two runs worse than his 3.87 expected number — that's underperformance, not bad stuff. The results haven't caught up to the process yet for him.
P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
cooling_offCHC @ STL
Jordan Walker: .557 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Matthew Boyd
Walker's cooled to a .557 OPS the last two weeks after an .849 season mark. Boyd throws left tonight, and left-handed pitching is the side of the plate Walker has actually crushed all year (.919 OPS).
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez
Gary's Take Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherTOR @ WSH
Wind blowing in 13 mph at Nationals Park tonight
Conditions at Nationals Park: Sunny, 82°, wind 13 mph, In From LF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 9.5.
P final total 7 vs 9.5 (under lean)
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Marlins
Bryce Harper
Gary's Take Harper's season-long split against right-handed pitching isn't close — .282 average, .989 OPS, 19 home runs in 234 at-bats. Gusto throws right-handed, and his ERA (4.50) and xERA (4.36) both say this is a get-to-able arm regardless of who's standing in the box, not just a name in the six-hole of the rotation.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 3 TB
rest_fatigueNYY @ CHW
NYY's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
Yankees pen at 14 innings over three games, Yarbrough and Headrick the busiest. Chicago's bullpen has matched that workload almost exactly at 14 — both sides tired tonight.
P flagged side lost 5-6
platoon_edgeBAL @ DET
Taylor Ward (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Ward hits lefties well — .864 OPS over 101 at-bats — and he leads off against Skubal, a lefty, tonight. Solid split to keep an eye on in Detroit.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueHOU @ LAA
Houston Astros pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston's bullpen has thrown 15 innings over its last three games, with two relievers already asked to go more than once. Real recent workload for that pen to carry into tonight.
cooling_offMIL @ SF
Heliot Ramos: .447 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Thomas Pannone
Heliot Ramos's .447 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .722 season mark, down 0.275. Tonight he draws LHP Thomas Pannone — his stronger side: a .860 OPS vs LHP across 57 AB.
P 4-for-5, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCLE @ CIN
Steven Kwan: .931 OPS in Last 15 Days
Kwan's on one of the better runs of his season — .931 OPS over his last 41 plate appearances, well up from a .652 mark that's undersold him all year. His total-bases number tonight sits at 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
heat_checkKC @ MIN
Salvador Perez: .926 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a .926 OPS, up 0.299 on his .627 season mark. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 4 TB
ballpark_shiftCHC @ STL
Dustin May owns a 3.45 ERA at Busch Stadium — 6.31 everywhere else
May's numbers at Busch are night and day from the road — 3.45 ERA at home against 6.31 elsewhere over real innings both ways. He's pitching at home tonight against the Cubs.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
cooling_offARI @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds: .547 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
Reynolds has gone cold — .547 OPS his last two weeks versus .842 for the season — but he draws Rodriguez tonight, a lefty, which is actually his better side at .867 for the year. Same tension as a few others on this board.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cut_listNYM tonight
Jorge Polanco
Still hitting 6th for NYM — 0.431 OPS, 0.149 AVG from the 6-hole.
ballpark_shiftCLE @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 2.98 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.89 everywhere else
Singer's a completely different pitcher at home — 2.98 ERA at Great American versus 5.89 everywhere else across a real sample of innings both ways. That's a park split worth knowing before tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
cooling_offARI @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn: .578 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eduardo Rodriguez
O'Hearn's cooled to .578 over his last two weeks from an .807 season mark, and tonight's matchup against Rodriguez, a lefty, is already his weaker side at .658. Everything's lining up against him right now.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchBOS @ OAK
Jahmai Jones: .160 AVG vs .224 xBA
Jones is hitting just .160 on the season, but a .224 xBA says the contact he's making deserves better than that. His wOBA (.237) is running well below his .304 expected mark too.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkTOR @ WSH
George Springer: .987 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer's heating up — .987 OPS over his last 42 plate appearances against a .720 season mark. That's a big swing and he's got a 1.5 total bases line tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkATL @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: 1.016 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lindor's running a 1.016 OPS the last two weeks against a .743 season number — one of the bigger hot streaks on the board tonight. 1.5 total bases for him.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offTOR @ WSH
Kazuma Okamoto: .463 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zack Littell
Okamoto's in a rough stretch — .463 OPS the last two weeks versus .753 for the season — but he draws Littell tonight, a righty, which is actually his better side at .758. Mixed signal worth sorting out.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
starter_formNYY @ CHW
Davis Martin: 6.14 ERA over his last 3 starts
Martin's been rough lately — 6.14 ERA over his last three starts against a 3.49 season mark, walks and hits piling up. That's a real fade from his season-long form.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
cut_listBOS tonight
Jahmai Jones
Still hitting 1th for BOS — 0.522 OPS, 0.160 AVG from the 1-hole.
starter_formARI @ PIT
Jared Jones: 1.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Jones has been dealing — 1.06 ERA over his last three starts, 22 strikeouts in 17 innings — well under his 3.72 season number. That's about as sharp a recent stretch as anyone's carrying into tonight's slate.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
heat_checkBAL @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lee's running hot — 1.056 OPS over his last two weeks against a .747 season mark. Solid total-bases number tonight for him at 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
starter_formCLE @ CIN
Joey Cantillo: 6.59 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cantillo's been hit hard lately — 6.59 ERA over his last three starts, WHIP jumping to 1.98 from a 1.46 season mark. That's a real slide walking into tonight.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
ballpark_shiftTEX @ TB
Casey Legumina owns a 2.50 ERA at Tropicana Field — 4.97 everywhere else
Legumina's a different guy at Tropicana — 2.50 ERA there against 4.97 everywhere else, hitters batting just .200 off him at home. Worth knowing before tonight's start in Tampa.
P 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
regression_watchARI @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .285 AVG vs .227 xBA
Valdez's .285 average is running well ahead of his .227 expected number, and his wOBA's telling the same story. Statcast likes his contact less than the results suggest — something to watch going forward.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offATL @ NYM
Mauricio Dubon: .506 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Dubon's cooled — .506 OPS his last two weeks against .713 for the season — and he draws Manaea tonight, a lefty, which is already his tougher side at .680. Stacked against him right now.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
bullpen_fatigueCOL @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 13 innings across their last 3 games, with 3 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
regression_watchTEX @ TB
Nicky Lopez: .309 AVG vs .254 xBA
Lopez is hitting .309 against a .254 expected average, and his wOBA (.311) is running ahead of his expected number (.267) too. Not a huge power bat either way, but the results are outrunning the process right now.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formBAL @ DET
Trevor Rogers: 1.86 ERA over his last 3 starts
Rogers has been sharp recently — 1.86 ERA over his last 19.3 innings against a 4.17 season number, WHIP down too. A different pitcher than the season line shows right now.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
ownedATL @ NYM
Francisco Lindor vs Chris Sale: .368
Lindor's been excellent against Chris Sale specifically — 14-for-38 with a couple of homers, a .368 average across real history between them. He's also in the middle of a hot stretch overall (1.016 OPS, last 15 days), so the recent form and the history are both pointing the same way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
closer_watchKC @ MIN
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
closer_watchCHC @ STL
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
closer_watchHOU @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
regression_watchCOL @ SD
Cole Carrigg: .301 AVG vs .252 xBA
Carrigg's hitting .301 against a .252 expected mark, and his wOBA sits at .379 versus a .324 expected number. Another one where the actual production is running a good bit ahead of the underlying contact quality.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherMIL @ SF
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Tonight's reading at Oracle Park — Partly Cloudy, 70°, wind 11 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 19 vs 7.5 (over lean)
regression_watchCOL @ SD
Kyle Hart: 5.21 ERA vs 3.66 xERA
Kyle Hart's sitting on a 5.21 ERA, but the contact he's allowing lines up with a pitcher closer to 3.66 — batters are hitting almost exactly what they're supposed to against him, .219 actual against .221 expected. The results haven't caught up to the process yet, and most numbers on him still get set off that ugly ERA.
P 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
return_watchSEA — return listed 7/29
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/29 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
return_watchCOL — return listed 7/29
Blas Castano
Listed back 7/29 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
heat_checkBAL @ DET
Dillon Dingler: 1.048 OPS in Last 15 Days
Dingler's heating up — 1.048 OPS over his last two weeks against an .856 season mark, 22 homers already on the year. 1.5 total bases number tonight for him.
P 1-for-6, 1 TB
regression_watchATL @ NYM
Jorge Polanco: .149 AVG vs .195 xBA
Polanco's average sits well below his expected number — .149 against .195 xBA, wOBA telling the same story. Statcast says the contact's been better than the results, which usually means things turn at some point.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formPHI @ MIA
Jesus Luzardo: 1.38 ERA over his last 3 starts
Luzardo's last three starts — 13 innings, 2 earned, 17 punchouts — are nothing like his season ERA. Miami's lineup has a problem in front of them tonight.
P 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
heat_checkPHI @ MIA
Alec Bohm: .836 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bohm's been a different hitter the last two weeks — .836 OPS is a real jump off a .655 season line. 1.5 total bases is a number worth a look against Miami tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formSEA @ LAD
Emerson Hancock: 1.23 ERA over his last 3 starts
Emerson Hancock's turned it up lately — a 1.23 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP over his last three starts, both miles ahead of his season numbers. The 3.16 ERA on the season is still what most people see first.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
starter_formCLE @ CIN
Brady Singer: 2.57 ERA over his last 3 starts
Singer's been quietly great his last three trips out, 2.57 ERA with the strikeouts up. Doesn't erase the season number, but it's the version showing up lately.
P 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
regression_watchPHI @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .328 AVG vs .286 xBA
Lopez is hitting .328 on a .286 expected average — the underlying contact hasn't caught up to the results yet. I keep an eye on gaps like that.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
cut_listKC tonight
Randy Dobnak
Starts tonight for KC — 5.06 xERA behind a 1.42 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
regression_watchMIL @ SF
Luis Arraez: .325 AVG vs .284 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .325 against a .284 expected average (xBA) over 446 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .347 against a .302 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 4-for-5, 4 TB
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.600 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 2-hole.
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ WSH
Nathan Lukes
Pickup vs Zack Littell (6.27 xERA) — .733 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_watchBAL @ DET
Hao-Yu Lee: .275 AVG vs .236 xBA
Hao-Yu Lee's .275 average is running well ahead of his .236 expected mark. Worth watching whether the contact quality starts pulling the average back down.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
cooling_offATL @ NYM
A.J. Ewing: .624 OPS in L15 — draws RHP AJ Smith-Shawver
Ewing's cooled off — .624 OPS in his last 15 days — and now he draws a righty he's had trouble with all year. Tough combination to walk into.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
ballpark_shiftSEA @ LAD
Eric Lauer owns a 3.50 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 5.20 everywhere else
Lauer at Dodger Stadium is a completely different pitcher — 3.50 ERA there against 5.20 everywhere else. Small sample, but the split's been consistent.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
heat_checkARI @ PIT
Nick Gonzales: .918 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a .918 OPS versus .781 for the season, 0.137 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ WSH
George Springer
Pickup vs Zack Littell (6.27 xERA) — .720 OPS, bats 4th.
return_watchTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
return_watchTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
cooling_offBAL @ DET
Matt Vierling: .302 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Trevor Rogers
Matt Vierling's .302 OPS over the last 15 days (26 PA) trails his .568 season mark, down 0.266. Tonight he draws LHP Trevor Rogers — his stronger side: a .714 OPS vs LHP across 103 AB.
P 2-for-2, 5 TB
regression_watchSEA @ LAD
Emerson Hancock: 3.16 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
Hancock's 3.16 ERA is beating his 4.33 expected number by over a run. Lines built off the season ERA might not be pricing that gap correctly.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
regression_watchTOR @ WSH
Zack Littell: 5.17 ERA vs 6.28 xERA
Zack Littell carries a 5.17 ERA against a 6.28 expected ERA (1.11 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .264 off him vs a .288 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
starter_formMIL @ SF
Logan Webb: 5.49 ERA over his last 3 starts
He is carrying a 5.49 ERA over his last 19.7 innings with a 0.92 WHIP (1.12 season) — the 3.98 season line is doing a lot of work for him right now.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
ballpark_shiftCOL @ SD
Kyle Hart's ERA jumps to 6.06 at Petco Park
Petco hasn't been kind to Kyle Hart on the scoreboard — a 6.06 ERA over 10 trips there — even though hitters are only batting .230 off him in that park. The damage tends to come in bunches rather than from hitters squaring him up consistently.
P 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
heat_checkARI @ PIT
Nolan Arenado: .904 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (39 PA) he is at a .904 OPS, up 0.153 on his .751 season mark. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.627 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 4-hole.
return_watchBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
closer_watchARI @ PIT
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jonathan Loaisiga with 1).
closer_watchPHI @ MIA
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
ownedCLE @ CIN
Steven Kwan vs Brady Singer: .360
Steven Kwan's 9-for-25 for his career against Brady Singer, and he's rolling right now — a .931 OPS over his last 15 games. History and current form are pointing the same way tonight.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
running_gameKC @ MIN
Minnesota Twins like to run — Carter Jensen (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen's thrown out 40% of the runners who've tested him this year, well above the norm behind the plate — and Minnesota's running anyway at a 0.6-steal-a-game clip. That's a stubborn team going right at a real arm.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsARI @ PIT
Bryan Reynolds
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .842 OPS, bats 3rd.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
closer_watchCOL @ SD
Mason Miller
Mason Miller owns the ninth for the Padres — 27 saves this season (next closest: Jason Adam with 2).
ballpark_shiftBAL @ DET
Tarik Skubal owns a 3.46 ERA at Comerica Park — 2.05 everywhere else
Skubal at home is a different pitcher than Skubal on the road — 3.46 at Comerica against 2.05 elsewhere. Doesn't make him bad, just not his best version.
P 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
closer_watchATL @ NYM
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 21 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
closer_watchTOR @ WSH
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 22 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ WSH
Trey Yesavage
Streamer vs WSH — 3.33 xERA · 9.2 K/9 · 1.18 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ SF
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs SF — 3.33 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
cut_listOAK tonight
Colby Thomas
Still hitting 6th for OAK — 0.584 OPS, 0.207 AVG from the 6-hole.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ OAK
Sonny Gray: 2.78 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 2.78 ERA against a 3.82 expected ERA (1.04 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .241 vs .250 expected.
regression_tomorrowTEX @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.09 ERA vs 4.18 xERA
McClanahan projected tomorrow — 3.09 ERA against a 4.18 expected number. That's a full run of separation between results and what the underlying stuff says.
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/2
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ PIT
Brandon Lowe
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .809 OPS, bats 2nd.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ PIT
Ryan O'Hearn
Pickup vs Eduardo Rodriguez (4.99 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 5th.
cut_listPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.655 OPS, 0.225 AVG from the 4-hole.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ OAK
Sonny Gray: 2.78 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Sonny Gray projected tomorrow with a similar story — 2.78 ERA, 3.82 expected. He's been getting away with more contact than the number shows.
first_inningMIL @ SF
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIL @ SF
Both sides in San Francisco have been slow out of the gate — first-inning runs in just 3 of 10 apiece. Webb's actually been hit some early, Drohan's been tighter.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
regression_tomorrowTEX @ TB
Shane McClanahan: 3.09 ERA vs 4.18 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TEX. A 3.09 ERA against a 4.18 expected ERA (1.09 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .212 vs .242 expected.
running_gameMIL @ SF
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Daniel Susac (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee Brewers attempt 1.3 steals a game, but Daniel Susac has cut down 11 of 34 runners (32%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base
cut_listBAL tonight
Tyler O'Neill
Still hitting 4th for BAL — 0.669 OPS, 0.210 AVG from the 4-hole.
cut_listMIA tonight
Leo Jimenez
Still hitting 6th for MIA — 0.606 OPS, 0.210 AVG from the 6-hole.
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 3.79 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Holmes projected tomorrow — 3.79 ERA against 4.73 expected, just under a run gap. Another one running better than the peripherals suggest.
first_inningARI @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pittsburgh hasn't scored in the first inning in 10 straight games. Jared Jones has been lights out early too — 1.80 ERA in first innings this year.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 3.79 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 3.79 ERA against a 4.73 expected ERA (0.94 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .241 vs .251 expected.
running_gameKC @ MIN
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 14%
Kansas City's stolen 83 bags this season, and Victor Caratini has caught just 8 of 58 runners behind the plate — 14%. That's about as green as a green light gets, and the Royals know it.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
first_inningSEA @ LAD
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle's been shut out in the first in 10 straight, and Hancock's first-inning number backs it up — 1.42 ERA, opponents hitting .154 against him early.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
running_gameCOL @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Brett Sullivan has caught just 16%
San Diego Padres steal 1 bags a game (110 on the season) and Brett Sullivan has thrown out 6 of 38 runners (16%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
cut_listPHI tonight
Trea Turner
Still hitting 1th for PHI — 0.676 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 1-hole.
regression_tomorrowSEA @ LAD
Bryan Woo: 4.37 ERA vs 3.53 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAD. A 4.37 ERA against a 3.53 expected ERA (0.84 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .240 expected.
regression_tomorrowCHC @ STL
Javier Assad: 3.86 ERA vs 4.67 xERA
Javier Assad's holding hitters to a .237 average when the contact quality says .269 — the widest gap between results and process on this list. He starts tomorrow against St. Louis, and if that average normalizes, the ERA has room to climb with it.
regression_tomorrowCHC @ STL
Javier Assad: 3.86 ERA vs 4.67 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 3.86 ERA against a 4.67 expected ERA (0.81 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .237 vs .269 expected.
running_gameCHC @ STL
Chicago Cubs like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Chicago Cubs attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Pedro Pages has cut down 17 of 52 runners (33%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases
running_gameCOL @ SD
Colorado Rockies like to run — Freddy Fermin (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Colorado Rockies attempt 1 steals a game, but Freddy Fermin has cut down 16 of 50 runners (32%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Colorado Rockies stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ SD
Kyle Hart
Streamer vs COL — 3.66 xERA · 7.8 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP.
first_inningTEX @ TB
TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Tampa Bay's in the same spot — one first-inning run in their last 10, and Gore's first-inning numbers this year have been sharp.
P flagged team scored 3 in the 1st
first_inningCOL @ SD
SD have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Diego's managed a first-inning run just once in their last 10. That's a lineup that needs time to wake up.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Padres -1.5 +133
MLB · 1-3
L
Brewers ML -116
MLB · 3-16
L
Rangers ML +119
MLB · 0-3
L
Twins -1.5 +101
MLB · 4-0
W
Guardians ML -136
MLB · 6-1
L
Cubs ML -111
MLB · 2-3
L
Yankees ML -149
MLB · 5-6
W
Astros ML -126
MLB · 7-4
W
Dodgers -1.5 +113
MLB · 2-4
W
Red Sox ML -156
MLB · 4-2
L
Phillies -1.5 -102
MLB · 6-8
L
Pirates ML -131
MLB · 3-0
L
Tigers ML -188
MLB · 10-9
W
Mets ML -108
MLB · 2-3
L
Nationals ML +100
MLB · 5-2
L
Braves -1.5 +104
MLB · 2-3

Props

L
Alex Bregman · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
W
Andruw Monasterio · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 6
L
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 2
L
Brady Singer · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 13
W
Brice Turang · over
Brewers @ Giants · Actual 2
L
Bryan De La Cruz · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 3
L
Chandler Simpson · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
CJ Abrams · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Corbin Carroll · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Mariners @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Eugenio Suarez · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Francisco Alvarez · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 2
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Freddie Freeman · over
Mariners @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Hao-Yu Lee · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 1
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Jake Burger · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Astros @ Angels · Actual 4
L
Jesus Luzardo · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 5
L
Joe Ryan · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 4
W
Jose Ramirez · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Kody Clemens · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Kyle Manzardo · over
Guardians @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Lane Thomas · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Logan Webb · over
Brewers @ Giants · Actual 18
L
Manny Machado · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Manny Machado · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Michael Busch · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Diamondbacks @ Pirates · Actual 1
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Rafael Devers · over
Brewers @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Salvador Perez · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Tarik Skubal · over
Orioles @ Tigers · Actual 6
L
Tommy Edman · over
Mariners @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Trea Turner · over
Phillies @ Marlins · Actual 1
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Trey Yesavage · over
Blue Jays @ Nationals · Actual 4
W
Ty France · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Ty France · over
Rockies @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Tyrone Taylor · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Tyrone Taylor · over
Braves @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Wyatt Langford · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Astros @ Angels · Actual 0