Sports picks for Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Luzardo has been surgical through July, dominant on the mound while bringing electric swing-and-miss stuff into every start. He has cleared 7.5 strikeouts in five of his last eight outings, including a 9-K performance against the Yankees and an 11-K gem against Cincinnati. Miami's lineup today features free-swinging profile bats like Heriberto Hernandez and Kyle Stowers who routinely chase out of the zone in two-strike counts. Getting plus-money on Luzardo to record 8 or more strikeouts against his former team is the cleanest edge on the board.

De La Cruz is riding a ridiculous hot streak, collecting eight hits in his last eleven official at-bats and eclipsing 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games. Today he gets Ryan Gusto, who allows a generous 43.9% hard-hit rate and works as a short opener before turning the game over to a depleted Marlins bullpen. Playing back in loanDepot park, +157 is generous value for De La Cruz to pick up a extra-base hit or multiple singles.

Gonzales is the hottest bat in this lineup and nobody's talking about him. He's 12 for his last 31, 18 for 49 over two weeks, and he's a career .325 hitter in day games — which is what this is, first pitch just after noon. Now hand him a lefty. He hits leadoff, so he's getting five looks in a lineup that's been putting up runs at home, with Lowe and Reynolds behind him to cash the runs-scored side of this ticket. He's gone over this combined number in eleven of his last fifteen games. When a hitter is seeing it this well and the matchup tilts his way, I don't overthink it. The juice is fair for how many ways this one gets there.

This is the spot I circle before I even look at the price. Valdez against a left-handed starter is a different hitter — he's hitting .333 with seven homers in just 45 at-bats against lefties this year, and in day games he's slugging over 1.300 OPS territory. Today is both. Eduardo Rodriguez lives on a 92 mph fastball and a sinker that right-handed bats have been squaring up all season, and Valdez feasts on exactly that diet — he's slugging .659 against four-seamers and .870 against sinkers. He's cleared this number in ten of his last fifteen, and I'm getting plus money on it. The swing-and-miss in his game is real, but Rodriguez isn't the guy who exposes it. Two bases feels like the floor for this matchup, not the ceiling.

Luzardo is a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate you're standing on. Right-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .250 average and 10 home runs in 340 at-bats this year, while lefties are hitting .168 against him with a single homer. Hernandez bats right-handed, and he's the one lefty-thumping angle on this Marlins lineup card that lines up with Luzardo's actual soft spot. He's also doing something with the bat right now that wasn't there a month ago. Two home runs in his last seven days, three in his last fifteen, and the exit-velo readings back it up — 91 mph average, three barrels out of sixteen balls in play recently. That's a hitter squaring the ball up, not just running hot. Whiff rate is elevated, so this isn't a contact-machine parlay play, but home run props aren't about contact rate, they're about answering the ball when he does connect. Hernandez has been doing that. Set against a pitcher whose split says right-handers hit for more power off him, and a hitter who's actively in a power window, this is where I'm putting a shot on the board tonight.

Valdez has gone deep 4 times in his last 15 games and he's over this number in 7 of them — that's a real recent power stretch, not a hot night getting extrapolated. The matchup lines up with it. He's a right-handed bat with a huge track record against lefties (1.367 OPS, 7 homers in just 45 at-bats), and Eduardo Rodriguez throws left. This is also a day game, and Valdez's day splits are the loudest number on this whole card — 10 homers in 56 at-bats with a 1.319 OPS in sunlight. Rodriguez's ERA says ace, but his expected numbers tell a different story: a 4.99 xERA and .341 xwOBA allowed against a 2.64 actual ERA is a pitcher who's been running better than the contact quality against him deserves. He's also barreled up plenty this year (9.3% barrel rate, 36.3% hard-hit allowed). Put a power-vs-lefty bat with strong day production against a pitcher whose results are outrunning his peripherals, and the price on one swing feels generous.

Harper's season-long split against right-handed pitching isn't close — .282 average, .989 OPS, 19 home runs in 234 at-bats. Gusto throws right-handed, and his ERA (4.50) and xERA (4.36) both say this is a get-to-able arm regardless of who's standing in the box, not just a name in the six-hole of the rotation. The surface-level numbers from the last week look quiet — three hits in his last 21 at-bats — but one of those hits was a home run against a division rival's ace two nights ago, and the underlying contact data hasn't backed off: three barrels on seventeen balls in play in that stretch, average exit velocity over 91 mph. The strikeouts and empty swings are up a touch, which tells me he's pressing a little in a series his team just got swept up in through two games, but when he connects the ball is still going out at an elite rate. Between the platoon matchup and a pitcher who hasn't been hard to find barrels against, I like the shot here even with the cold surface line the last week presents. Gusto's biggest vulnerability by pitch is arguably his sinker (.389 BA against it) and his four-seamer (.330 xwOBA against), both fastballs Harper has feasted on all year (.451 xwOBA against four-seamers overall).

Carroll's contact quality over the last week is the headline here — 96 mph average exit velocity with 5 barrels on just 23 balls in play. That's a hitter squaring the ball up right now, not just running good BABIP luck. He's also a lefty bat, and Jared Jones has shown a real gap in how he's handled the two sides this year — a .788 OPS and 5 homers allowed to lefties in 101 at-bats, against a .406 OPS and 1 homer to righties in 69. That split is a meaningfully larger sample on the lefty side, and Carroll's day-game numbers back it up too — .924 OPS with 8 homers in 154 day at-bats this season. He's got no history against Jones specifically, so there's no book on how Jones has attacked him before, but the shape of this matchup — hot contact, favorable platoon history for the pitcher, day game power — is enough to like the swing at plus-money.

Turner's last fifteen days stand out on this roster: four home runs, eight RBI, a .991 OPS. That's a real power stretch, not a one-game blip, even though the very last week cooled off (four hits in 25 at-bats with no homers). Power surges in a leadoff bat tend to run in patches like this, and I'd rather look at the fifteen-day window than chase the most recent quiet week in isolation. He's a right-handed bat facing Luzardo, whose season-long numbers show righties getting to him for real power — 10 home runs allowed in 340 at-bats against that side, compared to a single homer surrendered to lefties. That's the same platoon gap working in Turner's favor that shows up across this Phillies lineup card tonight. The exit-velocity read from his recent games is still strong at 91.7 mph average, even during the cold week for average — the loud contact hasn't disappeared, it just hasn't found grass or seats yet. At this price, I'm willing to bet it does tonight.

Abrams is the hottest hitter on either roster and he's drawing the softest matchup on the board. He's 13 for his last 25 with three homers this week, hitting well over .400 for two weeks with seven home runs in that stretch, and he's a completely different animal against right-handed pitching — near a 1.000 OPS with 22 of his homers off righties. Now he gets Zack Littell, who's been getting barreled at an alarming rate and whose fastball and sinker are the two pitches Abrams punishes most. Littell has given up an .891 OPS and 18 homers to left-handed bats this year. Abrams is in the DH spot, so his legs stay fresh and his at-bats are guaranteed. Two total bases for a guy this locked in, against this pitcher, at plus money — that's the cleanest bet on the card. One double, one homer, or two singles gets there, and he's been doing all three.

Yesavage's July has been messy, but the mess is walks, not whiffs — and this prop pays on whiffs. He's punched out nine in each of his last two starts, one of them in just four innings, because the splitter and slider are still generating swing-and-miss at rates most starters can't touch. When he's in the zone enough to get to the fifth or sixth inning, six strikeouts is his floor, not his ceiling. Washington's lineup will take their walks, but the guys who do the damage — Wood, Abrams, Lile — all carry real swing-and-miss in their game, and that's exactly the profile his splitter feasts on. The risk is the short-outing blowup like San Diego, which is why this is plus money instead of chalk. I'll take the live arm with two straight nine-strikeout games at better than even odds.

Taylor is the hottest bat in Queens right now — 5-for-10 with two homers and eight RBI over the last week, including a three-run shot in Monday's 14-3 burial of this same Atlanta club. He's a different hitter in the afternoon and a different hitter at home, and today is both. The man on the mound hasn't thrown a big-league pitch in over a year, and behind him sits a Braves bullpen that just shipped out the lefty who wore an 11-spot Monday night. Taylor needs one hit, one run, or one RBI across four trips. The way he's swinging it, one feels like the floor.

Alvarez has cleared this number in ten of his last fifteen, and he's swinging as well as he has all season — .350 with three homers over the last two weeks and loud contact when he connects. He gets a right-hander making his first start in fourteen months, which means either Alvarez sees him fresh off a long layoff or he's into a bullpen that's been leaking for a month. Batting ninth caps the at-bats, which is why this pays plus money on a bar he's been clearing routinely, and why I'm sized at the lower end of my card rather than off it. Two combined hits, runs, and RBI at plus-130 with the bat this warm is a price I'll take.

Look at the lineup Baltimore is running out there today: eight right-handed bats plus switch-hitting Leody Taveras, with Rutschman, Basallo, and Westburg all shelved. Skubal is holding righties to a .193 average and a .573 OPS this year, and his changeup — over half swing-and-miss when hitters offer at it — is exactly the pitch that ties up a righty-heavy order. His whiff rates have been climbing start over start, and he just rang up 12 Kansas City hitters over 7.1 innings. The Orioles strike out more than nine times a game as a team, and the bottom of this lineup — Taveras, Jackson, Tromp — is a strikeout waiting to happen three times over. He's been working deep, seven-plus innings in two of his last three, and with the trade deadline circus swirling around him, a statement outing in front of the home crowd fits the moment. Nine strikeouts at plus money against maybe the softest lineup he'll see all month — I'll take that swing.

Nobody in this game is swinging it like Hao-Yu Lee right now — 8-for-18 over the last week with two homers, a 95 mph average exit velocity, and four barrels in his last 16 balls in play. That's not a lucky stretch, that's a hitter squaring everything up. Now he draws Trevor Rogers, a lefty who handles lefties beautifully but has a real problem with right-handed bats: .274 average, .752 OPS, and nine of his ten homers allowed have come from that side. Rogers's sinker and cutter are the pitches righties are feasting on, and Lee just tripled off the wall in this series. Add a 16 mph wind blowing out to right field on a sunny afternoon and plus money on a hitter this locked in needing just two bases — a double does it, a homer does it, two knocks do it. I like every path.

Turang is the hottest bat on either side of this game — 10 for his last 22 with a three-hit night in this same park yesterday — and Webb happens to be the one Giants arm he's always squared up: 4 for 9 lifetime with extra bases in there. The matchup fits, too. Webb leans on his sinker nearly a third of the time, and the sinker is the pitch Turang slugs over .500 against this year. Webb's dominance lives on the righty side of the plate; left-handed hitters get him for about 90 points more of average, and everything Turang has done this season — .298, 14 homers — has come with a righty on the mound. I need two bags from a red-hot leadoff man who's cleared this number in more than half his games over the last month, and the book is paying me plus money for it. That's a bet.

Nineteen-plus outs in six of Webb's last eight starts, and the last three read 18, 20, 21. Now look at the spot. San Francisco's bullpen had to cover more than five innings last night after Roupp lasted eleven outs — Brubaker emptied the tank with 57 pitches, Foley threw 33 — and there's a flight to San Diego right after this one with no off day. Webb is the horse this staff rides on days like this; he's gone 95-plus pitches in 11 of his 18 starts for a reason. And the lineup he's facing got softer overnight: Contreras and Vaughn are both on the bench for the day game. A ground-ball pitcher in the biggest yard in the league, in afternoon marine air, against a B-version lineup, with a manager who needs length — and I'm getting plus money on a number that sits right at his season average. The market priced the pitcher and forgot the situation.

France has cleared this number in 13 of his last 15 games, and nothing about today's spot slows him down. He's hitting .362 over two weeks with five homers, he's a better hitter in day games (.305 with a .957 OPS in daylight), and he bats cleanup behind Tatis, Cronenworth, and Machado — three guys reaching base constantly right now, which keeps feeding him RBI chances. Hughes has pitched well, but he's a rookie going about five innings, and once he's out this becomes France against a Rockies bullpen that's been bleeding runs all year and emptied five arms into last night's 8-7 loss. Four or five plate appearances, half of them likely against tired relief — two of hits, runs, and RBI is the right side at this price.

This is a pitch-mix bet. Hughes throws his four-seamer almost 60% of the time and it sits under 93 — and Machado is slugging .664 against four-seamers this year with the best expected numbers on his card against that exact pitch. He's hitting .370 over the last week with four homers in two, and he's cleared 1.5 total bases in 10 of his last 15. Petco knocks down some homers, but Machado's damage against fastballs comes in doubles too, and the wind is blowing out to right today. When the pitcher's primary offering is the pitch a hitter punishes most, and the number pays plus money, I take the bases.

Ezequiel Duran has been scorching at the plate, hitting .381 with a 1.185 OPS over his last seven games. Slotting into the two-hole today, he is in prime position to produce. Tampa Bay is throwing a bullpen game, opening with Casey Legumina before likely handing the bulk of the innings to lefty Ian Seymour. Duran has cleared this combined line in 10 of his last 15 contests, so finding him at plus money in a premium lineup spot is an absolute gift. The volume and current form are entirely on his side.

MacKenzie Gore has noticeable reverse splits this season, struggling much more against left-handed hitters (.287 AVG allowed) than righties (.226 AVG allowed). Chandler Simpson swings from the left side and has been a machine lately, batting .410 over his last 15 games. Even out of the six-hole, Simpson’s contact skills and blazing speed make him a constant threat to manufacture runs. At -105, we just need him to keep putting the ball in play against a starter who gives up comfortable contact to lefties.

Merrill's white hot right now and it's not empty contact — five homers and a 1.120 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the exit-velocity readings back it up instead of arguing with it. He's squaring up close to a fifth of his balls in play the last week, which is a real number, not a hot-streak mirage. He hits fifth tonight against a rookie four-seam-heavy arm in Hughes, who hasn't had to answer for a left-handed bat running this hot yet. Petco plays big, sure, but Merrill's been hitting balls that clear parks a lot bigger than this one lately. I'll take the price.

Machado's rolling right alongside Merrill — four homers in his last fifteen, barreling the ball at a rate that says this isn't luck. What sells me here is the matchup: Hughes lives on his four-seamer, throws it almost six times out of ten, and that's the exact pitch Machado's done his most damage on all year, by a wide margin over anything else he sees. When a hot hitter's swing lines up with a rookie's most-used pitch this cleanly, I want in at plus money, third in the order with traffic ahead of him.

Legumina opens this one, and beyond his fastball the two pitches he leans on are a sinker and a slider that have gotten hit hard all season. Langford has been squaring up exactly that shape of pitch since July started, and his exit velocity over the last week is the loudest read on this whole board. He doesn't need the platoon to break his way, either — he's produced against lefties and righties both this year. Tampa Bay is stitching this start together with a handful of arms rather than trusting one pitcher through the lineup, and Langford is the bat most likely to make somebody pay for the mistake that creates.

I love a good batter-versus-pitcher history when there is actual meat on the bone, and 38 career at-bats is plenty of sample size. Francisco Lindor has seen a lot of Chris Sale over the years, taking the lefty deep twice while racking up 14 hits for a .368 average. Sale is having a phenomenal season for Atlanta with a 2.19 ERA, which is exactly why the market is offering such a massive price tonight. But Lindor just swatted two homers in Monday's series opener and clearly tracks Sale's release well. On the back half of a long doubleheader day, I will gladly take a stab at 8-to-1 odds for Lindor to catch a mistake and put one in the seats.

Drake Baldwin is hitting leadoff for the Braves tonight and comes into this one swinging a very heavy bat. He's crushed five homers over the last two weeks and holds a robust .916 OPS against righties on the season. We get him against Christian Scott, who has been solid overall but shows a glaring split when it comes to power: he's surrendered six homers to left-handed batters in 150 at-bats compared to just one against righties. Hitting in the leadoff spot guarantees Baldwin maximum volume at the plate, and given how well he's driving the ball right now, +400 is a great price to back him to extend his power surge against a starter who is vulnerable to lefty pop.

Ty France has gone deep five times in his last fifteen games, matching the loudest recent power on this whole board, and the underlying contact backs it up — he's still driving the ball hard, not just getting lucky bounces. He's also been a notably better hitter in day games specifically, and this one starts at 1:10 in the afternoon out there. Cleanup spot, steady at-bats, and a price that isn't fully respecting how loud his bat has been the last two weeks. I'll take that gap.

Burger's barrel rate over the last couple weeks is the best number on this board, and he already has two home runs in his last seven games to show for it. The swing is aggressive enough that he'll miss his share and chase out of the zone more than most hitters here, but the contact he is making has real carry behind it, not just results that happened to fall in. Tampa Bay running a bullpen game means more arms and more different looks than a hitter usually gets in one night, which is exactly the kind of night that produces one mistake pitch — and Burger has been punishing those all month.

Devers is the one bat on this Giants roster still doing damage right now — two homers and seven driven in over his last week, and it isn't cheap contact. He's been squaring balls up consistently, averaging north of 94 off the bat with real hard contact mixed in, the kind of quality that turns into balls landing in the bay, not warning-track outs. I'll say the honest part: he's been a different hitter against lefties all year, nowhere near as dangerous as he is against right-handers, and Pannone throws left-handed tonight. That's the one thing keeping me from going bigger here. But Pannone is a complete question mark himself, a rookie just recalled to make a spot start with nothing on his track record against this lineup — I'm not going to treat an unknown arm like a proven weapon against Devers just because of which side he throws from. And for as much as this park keeps the ball in the yard, Devers has actually gone deep here more often than he has on the road this year, so I'm not letting the ballpark's reputation talk me out of what he's actually done in it. Plus money on a hitter this locked in, with the swing decisions and contact to back it up — I'll take that price.

The angle here is the platoon. Right-handed hitters have done real damage against Legumina this season, and Duran is a right-handed bat running hot at the right time — two home runs in his last week with hard contact behind them, not cheap ones. He won't see Legumina deep into the night, Tampa Bay is easing him out early, but hitting second in this order means Duran gets him right away, first time through, before the roles change. That specific a matchup, on a bat this locked in, is worth the price here.

Tatis just had the first five-hit game of his career and he's reaching base at a huge clip right now, so I'm not fading him. The one thing keeping this from being a bigger bet for me is that his hard contact lately has mostly been singles and line drives rather than the barreled-up drives that turn into homers — last night was five hits and zero of them left the ground. He's an everyday superstar leading off against a rookie arm that hasn't had to get him out yet in the big leagues, and at this price I still want a piece of it, just not my top play tonight.

Chris Sale is having a monster season, and the market is pricing him like he's completely unhittable tonight. I get it. But we have to play the number in front of us, and +700 for Tyrone Taylor to go deep is just too wide. Taylor has been arguably the hottest hitter on the planet lately, mashing six home runs over a recent 38-at-bat stretch, and his underlying numbers against left-handed pitching are fantastic (a .938 OPS and five homers in 70 at-bats). Sale is elite, but he's yielded seven of his eight homers to righties this year. When a guy is seeing the baseball the way Taylor is right now, I'm more than happy to take a 7-to-1 dart on him catching one mistake.

Moniak went deep in this exact series last night, and he's shown real pop the last couple weeks. Tonight's pitching plan means Hart — the tough left-on-left matchup for him — is only good for an inning or two before this turns into a bulk-innings assignment for whoever follows, so the at-bats that decide this prop mostly won't come against the arm that actually gives him trouble. That's a structural gap in how this game gets pitched, not just a hot-hand play, and it's the kind of price I'll take a swing at.

Cincinnati's bullpen is completely spent. Yesterday they threw a bullpen game in Game 2 of a doubleheader, eating through five different relievers to complete the shutout. On top of that, Jose Franco — their call-up who was supposed to eat innings — went down with an elbow injury. Singer has been dealing as he auditions for a trade deadline deal, going 6.2, 7.0, and 7.1 innings in his last three starts. The Reds desperately need him to pitch deep into this one. At 5.2 innings to hit the over, getting this at near even money is a tremendous spot.

Some batters just see certain pitchers well, and Ramirez has Singer's number on speed dial. In 29 career at-bats against the righty, Ramirez has 12 hits, including three homers, good for a .414 average and a 1.334 OPS. While J-Ram's bat has been a little quiet this past week, a matchup against Singer in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park is exactly what he needs to wake up. At plus money, I'm happily backing the history here.

Randy Dobnak’s 1.42 ERA is completely smoke and mirrors right now. The guy is sitting on a 5.06 xERA, a 41% hard-hit rate allowed, and a primary sinker that is getting mashed to the tune of a .413 xwOBA. Enter Trevor Larnach, hitting out of the leadoff spot. Larnach handles sinkers and four-seamers well, and with first-pitch temperatures around 90 degrees and an 8 mph wind blowing straight out to right field, a left-handed bat at the top of the order is exactly where we want to look. He’s in a prime spot to clear this number.

The narrative heading into tonight is that Joe Ryan has struggled against Kansas City this season, but look at who is actually stepping into the box. No Bobby Witt Jr., no Vinnie Pasquantino, and Maikel Garcia is still on a rehab assignment. The Royals are throwing out a patched-together order featuring several guys with whiff rates pushing 30%. Ryan is an elite bat-misser averaging well over a strikeout per inning on the year. The market is pricing this line based on the uniform rather than the personnel wearing it, and I'll gladly take plus money on Ryan carving up this depleted lineup.

With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, Ben Rice has stepped up, and tonight he gets an absolute dream matchup against Davis Martin. Rice has been mashing right-handed pitching all year, carrying an OPS over 1.000 in the split. What makes this spot even better is the pitch mix. Martin leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, a pitch Rice has destroyed this season to the tune of a .964 slugging percentage. Batting second, he is guaranteed to see plenty of plate appearances in front of whatever is left of this Yankees lineup. I expect him to sit dead red on a fastball and do some damage. Getting plus money for him to clear a base and a half is fantastic value.

Suzuki has cleared this number in 14 of his last 15 games. That hit rate alone makes the -110 price tag look like a mistake on the board. He is batting second for a Cubs offense that is completely overwhelming the Cardinals' pitching staff right now. In the first two games of this series, Suzuki has racked up five hits, three runs, and two RBIs. The sheer volume of plate appearances he gets near the top of the order guarantees he will have multiple opportunities with runners on base or guys behind him ready to drive him in. I am confidently riding the hot hand here.

Bregman is currently seeing beach balls at the plate. He comes into tonight with seven hits in his last ten at-bats over the first two games of this series, scoring five runs in the process. Hitting cleanup in a lineup that is generating this much traffic means he is constantly walking to the box in run-producing situations. Getting plus money on a guy who is swinging it this well to combine for just two hits, runs, and RBIs is exactly the kind of value I look for to round out the card.

Joe Ryan just got hit for three home runs in a single start nine days ago, and the shape of his season backs up why: he's a fly-ball pitcher who's letting opponents barrel him up over eleven percent of the time and hit the ball hard over forty percent of the time. That's a pitcher grooving one over the fence more often than his ERA suggests he should be. Perez is the hottest bat in this game right now — four home runs and eight RBI over his last fifteen, an OPS pushing .930, and the underlying contact matches the results: three barreled balls in his last twenty in play, the best mark of anyone on this board. He chases more than he should, but when Perez gets to a pitch he doesn't miss it, and with the wind blowing out to left tonight, a mistake pitch travels. Plus-479 undersells where his bat is right now.

Cantillo's a different pitcher depending on who's standing in the box. He's given up a .774 OPS and ten home runs to right-handed hitters this year, against a .701 OPS and three homers to lefties — and De La Cruz swings right-handed against a left-hander, which puts him on the side of that split that's done the damage. It also happens to be his strong side regardless of who's pitching: 1.061 OPS with eight home runs in 95 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. He's the hottest bat in this lineup right now, thirteen hits in his last 44 at-bats with three homers, and the quality of contact backs it up — 93 mph average exit velocity and four barreled balls in his last eighteen batted balls. His expected slugging is actually a shade higher than what he's already produced, so the loud contact hasn't even fully cashed in yet. Cantillo's also been leaking oil his last two starts, nine earned runs combined. Everything here points the same way.

Randy Dobnak's ERA says he's been nearly unhittable this year. The contact he's allowing says otherwise — hitters are running a .343 expected weighted average against him, more than fifty points above what he's actually giving up, and his sinker, the pitch he leans on four out of every ten times, is getting hit at a .413 expected clip. That gap has to close somewhere, and Larnach is a good bet to be part of it. He's carrying a .343 average and a .529 slug against right-handers for his career, he's riding real recent thump — a home run and four RBI in his last week alone — and he's hitting leadoff tonight, which means the most at-bats of anyone in this lineup to find one mistake. The barrels have been there lately too, not just the results. At plus-500 for a hitter this locked in against exactly the guy he's about to face, I like the number.

Murakami is the hottest bat in that lineup right now and it isn't close. He hit two home runs in a single game against Houston recently, and the contact he's making the last couple weeks has been loud even in the at-bats that didn't leave the yard — legitimate barrels, not seeing-eye hits. Schlittler is excellent, but he's a fastball-heavy right-hander who leans on an upper-90s four-seamer more than anything else in his arsenal, and that's the exact pitch Murakami has turned into power all season. They've never faced each other, so there's no track record to lean on, but the shape of it — a power arm going to the one pitch this hitter drives best — is enough for me to like the number here. Wind's blowing out to right tonight too, which never hurts a lefty who likes to pull the ball. I'll take the price.

Dustin May has a real platoon problem this season — left-handed bats are hitting .289 with five homers off him in 232 at-bats, more than double the home run rate he's allowing right-handers. The two pitches he throws most after his four-seamer, the cutter and the sinker, are also the two he's getting hit hardest on, and that damage skews toward left-handed swings. Crow-Armstrong is riding it from the left side with real heat behind him — two home runs in his last seven games, and his contact quality over his last fifteen balls in play (four barrels) is running well ahead of the two games with a homer to show for it, which reads like a hitter about to cash in on quality of contact that hasn't fully converted yet. His career numbers back it up too: a .947 OPS against right-handed pitching and a .993 OPS in night games with seventeen homers in 247 at-bats. The wind blowing in from right field tonight works against a pull-side lefty, but at seven miles an hour it's not enough to outweigh everything else pointing the same way.

Singer's platoon split is about as clean as you'll see on a given night — .864 OPS and fifteen home runs allowed to left-handed hitters this season, .715 OPS and six to righties. Manzardo hits left-handed, and he's a five-for-seven career hitter off Singer specifically. He put a grand slam into the seats last night, and it wasn't an accident — over his last ten balls in play he's averaging 95.9 mph off the bat with two barreled balls, both the best marks on this roster right now. This is the shortest price on the board tonight, so the market's clearly seeing the same shape, but the underlying swing quality is real enough that I still want a piece of it.

Clemens is squaring the ball up better than anyone in this Twins lineup right now — nearly ninety-four miles an hour off the bat on average over his last stretch, with most of his contact qualifying as hard-hit. That's not an average-driven hot streak, that's real bat speed showing up in the exit numbers. He's got two home runs and an .836 OPS over his last fifteen games, and he's walking into a matchup built for him: Dobnak's fastball is getting hit hard in a small sample and his sinker is barely missing bats at all. Clemens doesn't need much room to do damage against stuff without much life on it. Plus-340 is the shortest price in this game for a reason, and I still think it's fair value.

Rice has been ordinary for a couple weeks now, but that's been about singles, not power — the home run stroke hasn't gone anywhere, and tonight sets up well for it to show. He's always done his best work against right-handed pitching, and Davis Martin is a right-hander who hasn't completed six innings in any of his last three starts, still hunting his first win since early June. When a starter's in that kind of stretch, mistakes tend to creep in early, and Rice bats second, so he'll see him before the game settles down. He's swinging and missing more than usual the last couple weeks, so I won't pretend this is clean, but at this price I like the power showing up against a pitcher still searching for his rhythm.

Thomas has three home runs in his last fifteen games, the best home run rate of anyone on this board, and he hit one just three days ago in Detroit. That's a bat that's found its stroke. Joe Ryan tends to be tougher on right-handers than lefties, so this isn't the friendliest platoon look, but Ryan is walking into tonight off a start where he allowed three home runs in four innings, and the underlying numbers — a career-high hard-hit rate allowed, a barrel rate over eleven percent — say that wasn't a fluke, it's where his season is trending. A hitter this hot against a pitcher this generous with the long ball is worth paying for, even at a longer number like plus-630.

The same crack in Dustin May's game that makes Crow-Armstrong interesting applies to Busch — left-handed hitters have gone deep on him at more than twice the rate right-handers have, largely on the cutter and sinker, the two pitches in his mix drawing the hardest contact. Busch already has two home runs in his last fifteen games, and the quality of contact behind that stretch is solid — ten hard-hit balls and two barrels across his last twenty-five balls in play, a better level than his quiet .543 OPS over the last week alone would suggest. There's no personal history between him and May to lean on, and he's facing the same modest wind blowing in from right field as Crow-Armstrong tonight, but the matchup shape and the underlying contact trend are enough to like this at plus-money.

Suarez sat the nightcap yesterday and steps back into the middle of the order tonight, having gone deep in six of his last fifteen games. Cantillo has been a much different pitcher against right-handed bats than lefties all season — ten home runs allowed to righties against three to lefties, a real gap on a real number of at-bats. He also leans on his fastball more than a third of the time, and it's been the pitch that's gotten him hit hardest all year, a .311 average and the highest expected damage of anything in his mix. A right-handed bat in the middle of a power stretch, facing a pitcher who throws his most hittable pitch most often and has already shown he's homer-prone to that side. I like the shape of this one.

Caglianone is 0-for-12 over his last week, and I'm not going to pretend that's nothing. But the exit velocity hasn't gone anywhere — he's still averaging over ninety-four miles an hour off the bat during this cold stretch, which tells me the swing is fine and the results just haven't matched it yet. Against right-handers this year he's got eleven home runs and a well-above-actual expected slug, and Joe Ryan is a pitcher who's given up a home run roughly every twenty at-bats to lefties this season. A correction is coming for both sides of this matchup, his cold streak and Ryan's homer rate, and plus-350 is a fair price to be there when it does.

Pena is hitting .439 with five homers over his last 15 games and his contact quality backs it up — he's averaging 93 mph off the bat with a dozen hard-hit balls in that stretch. Tonight he leads off against a fastball-heavy righty, which means the most plate appearances on the team against a four-seamer Pena hits at a .380 clip. Rodriguez's heater gets a 13 percent whiff rate — it doesn't miss bats, it finds them. Two total bases from the hottest leadoff man in baseball, at essentially even money, against the most hittable pitch he'll see all week. That's the best price on the board.

Alvarez leads the American League in all three triple-crown categories and is hitting .385 over his last 15. Tonight he gets a right-hander he's built to destroy: Rodriguez leans on a 96-mph four-seamer that's getting hit at .381, and Alvarez slugs .755 against four-seamers. Lefties have an 1.114 OPS off Rodriguez this year. The one catch is the free pass — teams have started putting Alvarez on rather than pitching to him — but that's a late-inning problem, and he'll get two or three cracks at the starter before anyone reaches for four fingers. Two bases is a modest ask for the best hitter alive in the best form of his life.

Alvarez hit his league-leading 35th homer last night, a 427-foot shot, and tonight the matchup gets friendlier. Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher — his ground-to-air ratio is 0.58 — allowing barrels on more than ten percent of contact, and his primary fastball is the exact pitch Alvarez slugs .755 against. Lefties have already taken him deep four times this year in limited work. A guy who has homered in roughly a third of Houston's games, in peak form, against a flyball arm whose heater can't miss bats — at 2-to-1, I want the swing.

Rafaela is the Red Sox bat I want tonight. Three homers in the past week, four RBIs in this series already including the grand slam that won Monday's game, and a career lean toward left-handed pitching — .280 with an .854 OPS against southpaws. The matchup fits too: Lopez leans on a slow slider and a 90-mph fastball, and Rafaela slugs nearly .600 against sliders when he connects. He's hitting the ball hard right now, and in this park on a hot night with the wind blowing out to center, one swing cashes this by itself — a single and anything else does the rest. Two total bases at this price against this pitcher is where my money goes.

Nobody on either roster is seeing the ball better than Monasterio — he's hitting .450 over the past two weeks, and it isn't cheap contact luck: he's chasing almost nothing out of the zone and squaring up what's in it. That discipline profile is exactly how you punish Jacob Lopez, a lefty who falls behind hitters constantly and whose fastball gets hit at nearly .290 when he has to come into the zone. Monasterio bats right-handed against a pitcher that right-handed bats have handled all season, in a park built for offense on a 91-degree night. He's cleared two total bases in more than half his recent starts, and the book is still paying me plus money for it. That gap between the form and the price is the bet.

Hancock's ERA says 3.16 but the contact he's giving up says mid-fours — a 43 percent hard-hit rate and nine homers to left-handed bats. Edman hits left-handed tonight, and that's the version of him batting .370 with a .946 OPS against righties, .349 at Chavez Ravine, .370 at night. The pitch mix seals it: Hancock throws his four-seam and sinker over 60 percent of the time, and Edman is hitting .625 against sinkers this year. When Hancock exits, Seattle's pen is running on fumes from last night's slugfest — the late at-bats come against the leftovers. Two total bases from a hitter this locked in, at plus money, is a price I'm happy to keep paying.

Freeman is seeing it as well as he has all season — 12 hits in his last 21 at-bats, .385 over two weeks. Now he draws a fastball-first righty: Hancock lives on the four-seam and sinker, and Freeman hits .344 with a .624 slug against four-seamers, .326 against right-handed pitching overall. He doesn't need to run into one for this to cash — he's spraying singles, and two knocks does the job. At +185 the price treats a multi-hit game like a long shot when it's been closer to his nightly routine, and once Seattle's taxed bullpen takes over, the at-bats only get friendlier.

Canzone doesn't sit against lefties anymore — both of last night's homers came left-on-left, 433 and 414 feet, dead center. Tonight it's Eric Lauer, a soft-tossing lefty who's been worse against left-handed bats than righties, allowing an .820 OPS to them, with 20 homers surrendered in 82 innings. Lauer leans on a 91-mph four-seamer 44 percent of the time; Canzone is slugging .711 against four-seamers with elite expected contact on that pitch. Wind is blowing out to right at eight. At nearly 4-to-1, I need this to land about once in five — the hottest hitter in either lineup against the most homer-prone arm in the game is worth more than that.