Yankees at White Sox
O/U 7.5 · RL Yankees -1.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Yankees ML -149
- Published odds
- -149
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 5-6
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
We are under the lights for game three of this four-game set, where the Yankees look to secure a series victory against a White Sox squad trying to protect a narrow division lead. New York has taken the first two games through tight execution, and while trade deadline chatter swirls around both clubhouses, tonight comes down to a clear mismatch on the mound. Cam Schlittler has been outstanding for New York, giving up hardly any runs or baserunners while blowing a fastball near ninety-eight miles per hour past hitters to miss bats over a third of the time. He is coming off a dominant performance where he struck out twelve batters. On the flip side, Chicago’s Davis Martin is trending in the wrong direction, giving up far too many runs recently and allowing way too much hard contact, which gives New York’s hitters a great matchup to work deep counts.
Even with big stars like Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger sidelined, New York’s supporting cast has produced, led by a hot Jasson Domínguez and Ben Rice setting the table. Chicago has home run power in Munetaka Murakami, but defensive misplays and a slump where they have lost four of their last five games have ruined their momentum. Chicago's closer, David Bednar, might be rested after working back-to-back nights, but New York’s setup relievers Angel Chivilli and Brent Headrick have been sharp enough to hold down the late innings. Back the superior starting pitcher to deliver and take the Yankees to win the game outright.
The full analysis
We are under the lights at Guaranteed Rate Field for game three of this four-game set, where the New York Yankees look to secure a series victory against a Chicago White Sox squad trying to protect its narrow standing in the American League Central. New York has taken the first two contests of the trip through tight execution and timely pitching, and while trade deadline chatter swirls around both clubhouses, tonight’s outcome hinges heavily on a clear discrepancy on the mound.
Cam Schlittler has been outstanding for New York, carrying a pristine 2.07 ERA and 0.93 WHIP into this outing behind a four-seam fastball that touches 98 mph and generates whiffs over 32 percent of the time. His underlying profile is equally impressive, holding opposing hitters to a .267 expected xwOBA while coming off a dominant 12-strikeout performance in his last start. On the flip side, Chicago’s Davis Martin is trending in the wrong direction with a 6.00 ERA across his July starts and an xERA hovering at 4.33 that indicates regression. Martin’s cutter and sinker have allowed far too much hard contact lately, giving New York’s hitters a favorable matchup to work into deep counts.
Even with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Cody Bellinger sidelined, New York’s supporting cast has produced, highlighted by Jasson Domínguez staying hot at the plate and Ben Rice setting the table. Chicago’s offense can hit the ball out of the park through Munetaka Murakami, but defensive misplays and a slump that has seen them lose four of their last five games have sapped their momentum. While closer David Bednar may be rested after working back-to-back nights, New York’s setup corps of Angel Chivilli and Brent Headrick has been sharp enough to hold down the late innings. Back the superior starting pitcher to deliver and take the Yankees on the moneyline.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Davis Martin: 6.14 ERA over his last 3 starts
6.14Martin's been rough lately — 6.14 ERA over his last three starts against a 3.49 season mark, walks and hits piling up. That's a real fade from his season-long form.
PLATOON EDGE
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
.852Antonacci hits right-handers a lot better than lefties — .852 OPS versus .518 — and he leads off against the right-handed Schlittler tonight. Straightforward, favorable split.
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
.749Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.749 OPS, 255 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (36 AB). Tonight's starter Cam Schlittler throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFF
Tristan Peters: .334 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cam Schlittler
.334Peters has fallen off hard the last two weeks, a .334 OPS against a .768 season number. He does draw a right-hander tonight in Schlittler, though, and right-handed pitching is where Peters has actually done his damage all year (.819 OPS).
HR THREAT
Ben Rice
+332Gary's Take The Yankees' lineup is missing some serious hardware right now with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and now Cody Bellinger all on the shelf. That puts the offensive burden squarely on the guys left at the top of the card.
BULLPEN
New York Yankees pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
14 IPYankees pen sitting at 14 innings over three games with five arms doubled up — that's about as taxed as a bullpen gets before a getaway spot.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Yankees are 4-1 vs White Sox this season
4-1Yankees have the season series 4-1 over the White Sox and took the last meeting 3-2. That's a series they've handled comfortably all year.
SITUATIONAL
NYY's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
14Yankees pen at 14 innings over three games, Yarbrough and Headrick the busiest. Chicago's bullpen has matched that workload almost exactly at 14 — both sides tired tonight.
STREAK
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
U6Yankees games have gone under six straight, running about 6.5 a night against a 9.5 average line. Tonight's number sits at 7.5, so the market's already adjusted some.
TEAM RECORD
White Sox 2-6 in Davis Martin's last 8 starts
2-6The White Sox are 2-6 with Martin on the mound over his last eight starts, losers of four in a row in his outings. His last three starts have been a 6.14 ERA, so this isn't just the offense leaving him out to dry.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored July 29, 2026 at 10:41 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, draftkings, caesars, betrivers.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
3- GARY'S PICKBEN RICETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, Ben Rice has stepped up, and tonight he gets an absolute dream matchup against Davis Martin. Rice has been mashing right-handed pitching all year, carrying an OPS over 1.000 in the split. What makes this spot even better is the pitch mix.
Martin leans heavily on his four-seam fastball, a pitch Rice has destroyed this season to the tune of a .964 slugging percentage. Batting second, he is guaranteed to see plenty of plate appearances in front of whatever is left of this Yankees lineup. I expect him to sit dead red on a fastball and do some damage.
Getting plus money for him to clear a base and a half is fantastic value.
- THE LONG SHOTMUNETAKA MURAKAMIHR OVER 0.5
Murakami is the hottest bat in that lineup right now and it isn't close. He hit two home runs in a single game against Houston recently, and the contact he's making the last couple weeks has been loud even in the at-bats that didn't leave the yard — legitimate barrels, not seeing-eye hits.
Schlittler is excellent, but he's a fastball-heavy right-hander who leans on an upper-90s four-seamer more than anything else in his arsenal, and that's the exact pitch Murakami has turned into power all season. They've never faced each other, so there's no track record to lean on, but the shape of it — a power arm going to the one pitch this hitter drives best — is enough for me to like the number here.
Wind's blowing out to right tonight too, which never hurts a lefty who likes to pull the ball. I'll take the price.
- THE LONG SHOTBEN RICEHR OVER 0.5
Rice has been ordinary for a couple weeks now, but that's been about singles, not power — the home run stroke hasn't gone anywhere, and tonight sets up well for it to show. He's always done his best work against right-handed pitching, and Davis Martin is a right-hander who hasn't completed six innings in any of his last three starts, still hunting his first win since early June. When a starter's in that kind of stretch, mistakes tend to creep in early, and Rice bats second, so he'll see him before the game settles down. He's swinging and missing more than usual the last couple weeks, so I won't pretend this is clean, but at this price I like the power showing up against a pitcher still searching for his rhythm.
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