Daily archive

2026-07-30

The stored Gary board for Thu, Jul 30. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB12:10 PM

Rangers @ Rays

It's a quick afternoon game in Tampa, and the best team in the American League is sending out their best pitcher to close out the series. Texas doesn't even have a real starter going — they're piecing the game together with relievers. Said that way, of course Tampa Bay is favored. But look closer and this game is way more interesting than it sounds. Tampa's ace is genuinely good, but the team has been protecting him — they've been pulling him early, and hitters have been squaring him up harder than his numbers show, especially when he throws his fastball. Texas loaded up on right-handed power hitters, and their two hottest bats, Ezequiel Duran and Jake Burger, have both homered off this guy before. So the late innings will come down to the relievers — and that's where everything flips. Tampa's bullpen is running on fumes: one guy threw almost half the game last night, another has pitched two days in a row, two more worked late in the win, and one of their key arms just got hurt. Texas's relievers, the supposed weakness, are actually the rested group — their three main guys all had the night off, and their closer has been lights out, slamming the door every single time all summer. The danger comes early: Texas is opening with a pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls and hasn't started a game all year, the Rays jumped on pitches right away last night, and this lineup wakes up for home day games — their leadoff man especially loves afternoon baseball. But this ballpark is brutal on hitters, both teams have been scraping runs together lately, and if this stays a close game into the late innings, the edge goes to the side with the fresher relievers. I don't need Texas to win — they can lose by a single run and I still cash. Getting that cushion in the toughest scoring park in the league, with the rested bullpen on my side, is worth the bet.

Rangers +1.5-149

CONF

63%

MLB1:40 PM

Royals @ Twins

**Gary's Take** Last game of the series in Minnesota, an early afternoon start, and this matchup has already shown us who these teams really are. Kansas City came into the Twins' building and blanked them last night, and honestly they've had Minnesota's number all season — winning most of their meetings, including most of the games played right here. The Twins are supposed to be the team gearing up for a playoff push, but they're playing like a team giving up. Their bats have gone quiet for two weeks, their star center fielder Buxton is hurt, and the guys in the heart of the order — Bell, Lewis, and Brooks Lee — have all gone ice cold. The starting pitchers are where I really disagree with the betting price. Bailey Ober's record looks nice, but ever since he came back from his elbow injury he's been a different guy — his fastball has lost real zip, he can't get deep into games anymore, and his favorite pitch, the changeup, is getting hammered, especially by left-handed hitters. That's a problem, because the Royals' best hitters right now are all lefties — Jensen, Caglianone, Massey, and Rojas. Massey and Rojas have been swinging hot bats for two weeks, and Caglianone brings real power on a warm afternoon with the wind blowing out. Meanwhile, Kansas City's starter Noah Cameron has flat-out owned the Twins every time he's faced them, and he's coming off one of the best outings of his life. A lefty who lives on off-speed stuff is exactly the kind of pitcher who eats up slumping hitters — and Lee and Bell can barely buy a hit right now. The Twins are favored mostly because they're at home and the Royals have been awful on the road — and yes, Kansas City's two best relievers pitched the last two days in a row, so I get the hesitation. But this is a bet on the matchup, not on the season resume, and the matchup has belonged to Kansas City all year: they're playing better, they've got the better pitcher today, and their lineup is built to attack exactly where the Twins' starter is weakest — against an offense that just isn't scoring. Getting paid extra to take that side is the play. Give me the Royals to win straight up, and if it comes down to a tight bullpen battle late, I think Minnesota's middle relievers break before we ever get to the ninth inning.

Royals ML+118

CONF

62%

MLB2:10 PM

Yankees @ White Sox

**Gary's Take** Last game of the series on the South Side, and the building's still buzzing from last night's marathon win. The White Sox keep finding ways to survive, and the Yankees get one last shot at them before heading across town. But this finale sets up as the toughest game of the whole series for New York to win. Sean Burke is the best pitcher on the field today, and it's not close. He's been going deep into games and barely giving up anything, and he's been especially tough on lefty hitters all year — which is a problem for a Yankee lineup loaded with left-handed bats and missing all three of the big sluggers who make that offense scary. New York has barely been scoring for two weeks, their leadoff man is ice cold, and the bottom of the order has gone silent. Meanwhile, the Yankees are starting Ryan Weathers, a lefty who leans on a fastball that gets hit hard — and Chicago stacked its lineup with righty hitters who crush exactly that kind of pitching, including a couple of guys who feast on lefties and one who's been on an absolute home run tear this past week. To be fair, it's a day game after a late night, which will tire out some Chicago bats, and both bullpens are gassed — Chicago's top reliever may not even be available. But that math hurts New York more. Weathers hasn't been pitching deep into games lately, so the Yankees will need a lot of innings from a bullpen that just got emptied out last night, while Burke's ability to go deep lets Chicago skip its most tired arms entirely. A team that's been great at home, with the clearly better starter, against a worn-down and slumping lineup, shouldn't be priced like a coin flip. I'll take the White Sox at the standard price.

White Sox ML-110

CONF

68%

MLB2:15 PM

Cubs @ Cardinals

**Gary's Take** It's the last game of a long series in St. Louis, an afternoon start, and there's a weird energy around this one. The Cardinals just barely stole a game in extra innings to avoid getting swept, and their front office has been hinting for weeks that they're about to start trading players away. The Cubs blew a gem from their starter last night, but don't let one bad ending fool you — they dominated the first three games of this series and have been piling up runs for two weeks straight. One of these teams is playing like it's headed to the playoffs. The other is stuck in the middle and drifting. The betting market treats this like a toss-up because of the pitchers — the Cardinals' guy, Andre Pallante, is coming off a brilliant outing, while the Cubs are starting Javier Assad, who nobody confuses with a star. I don't buy it. Pallante has never figured out this Cubs lineup — guys like Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Carson Kelly, and Seiya Suzuki have absolutely crushed him over the years. And he's the type of pitcher who struggles most against left-handed hitters, which is exactly where the Cubs' hottest bats are right now. Assad, meanwhile, throws strikes, has handled the Cardinals well every time he's faced them, including shutting them down earlier this month — and outside of a couple of guys, the Cardinals' hitters are ice cold. The honest risk is late in the game. Assad probably won't pitch deep, Chicago's bullpen is shaky, and one of their relievers just blew last night's game. But to punish a shaky bullpen you have to actually get guys on base, and the Cardinals haven't been doing that for weeks while the Cubs keep putting up big innings. When I can get the clearly better team, playing clearly better baseball, against a pitcher their lineup has owned, at even odds — that's not a spot I talk myself out of. Give me the Cubs.

Cubs ML-106

CONF

64%

MLB7:00 PM

Nationals @ Braves

**Gary's Take** Thursday night in Atlanta, and the Braves open a big home series against a Washington team that has quietly been one of the best road teams in baseball. Washington's starter is coming back from a long layoff, Atlanta sends out Grant Holmes, and the betting line says the Braves should win this one comfortably. I just don't see comfortable anywhere on this field. Here's what I keep coming back to: Atlanta can't pull away from anybody right now. Almost every game they've played lately has come down to a single run, they've barely been scoring at all this past week, Acuna is still working his way back from his hamstring injury and hasn't looked like himself, and the bottom of tonight's lineup is thin. Holmes rarely pitches deep into games, and his numbers have looked better than the way hitters are actually squaring him up — so he has almost no room for error. Washington, on the other hand, has been piling up runs for two weeks straight. Abrams is red hot, Crews and Wood are hitting the ball hard, and they've won way more than they've lost away from home. Every time these teams have met in Atlanta this year it's been close, and the Nats already won a series in that ballpark back in May. The honest risk is late in the game for Washington — their starter won't be asked to go long in his first game back, and the middle of their bullpen can turn a close game into a loss in one bad inning. That's exactly why I'm not betting them to win outright. But asking this Braves offense to win by multiple runs is asking them to do something they've barely done all month. If Atlanta wins, it's a nail-biter; if Washington's bats stay hot, they can flat-out win the game. I'll take the Nationals with the run and a half cushion.

Nationals +1.5-145

CONF

63%

MLB7:10 PM

Marlins @ Mets

The trade deadline is tomorrow, and these two clubhouses could not feel more different. Miami just swept Philadelphia at home, capped by a wild comeback that had their whole ballpark rocking. The Mets, meanwhile, are supposed to be playing out a lost season without their superstar — except nobody told them. They just took a series from Atlanta and have been outscoring everybody for two straight weeks. Miami's young flamethrower against New York's sinkerball rookie. Buckle up. Here's where this game gets decided: the late innings. The Mets rookie keeps giving his manager a solid, deep start every time out, and the relievers behind him have been nearly untouchable — three shutdown arms at the back of a pitching staff that's barely letting anyone score lately. Miami simply can't match that. Their two best relievers are hurt, their closer has pitched two nights in a row, another key arm threw a long outing yesterday, and what's left is a guy who can't stop walking people. Miami's starter has electric stuff and has been brilliant lately, but he doesn't pitch deep into games, right-handed hitters give him more trouble, and the Mets stack a bunch of dangerous righties — including their red-hot young catcher — right at the top of the order. So even if he's great, this ends up a close game in the hands of the weakest part of Miami's roster. The situation seals it. Miami just poured everything into an emotional home sweep, and now they open a long road trip — and they've been a bad road team all year and leaky on defense for weeks outside that one series. The Mets already hammered these same Marlins at home earlier this season, and this current version — the shortstop swinging it, the catcher on fire, the bullpen locked in — looks a lot more like that team than their record suggests. The ballpark and the wind blowing in should keep Miami's starter alive early, which is exactly why I'm not asking the Mets to win by extra runs — I just need them to win the game. Mets to win, straight up. Better pitching from start to finish, in the better spot.

Mets ML-137

CONF

62%

MLB7:10 PM

Pirates @ Reds

**Gary's Take** It's trade season, and these two teams are headed in opposite directions. Pittsburgh is still trying to add pieces and chase a playoff spot, even after falling a bit further out of the race Wednesday. Cincinnati is quietly looking to sell. The Pirates roll into Cincinnati coming off a game where they didn't score at all, and they're not even starting a normal starting pitcher — they're using a reliever to open the game. The Reds are starting Rhett Lowder, a young pitcher who's struggled all summer. This game comes down to who's pitching and who has to hit him. Lowder has been getting hit hard all year — lots of runs allowed, lots of baserunners, and no excuses to hide behind. Left-handed hitters especially have crushed him, and Pittsburgh's lineup happens to be loaded with lefties in the right spots — Brandon Lowe, Bryan Reynolds, Ryan O'Hearn — in a ballpark where fly balls to right field leave in a hurry. And I'm not that worried about Pittsburgh's patchwork pitching plan. Yohan Ramírez has quietly been one of their best relievers all year — he throws hard and hitters just can't square him up — and the rest of the bullpen is fresh because Carmen Mlodzinski covered a big chunk of Wednesday's game. It's Cincinnati's bullpen that's worn out. They've been juggling arms all week, and Lowder rarely pitches deep into games, so somebody tired is going to have to finish this one. I don't like their options. The honest concern is Pittsburgh's offense — they just got shut out, Oneil Cruz is still out of the lineup, and they haven't been scoring much lately. But they've beaten Cincinnati six times in nine tries this year, most of them convincingly, and the Reds have been a bad-hitting team with a losing record in their own park. When I compare the pitchers each side is actually using tonight, it favors Pittsburgh — and I barely have to risk anything extra to bet them. Give me the Pirates and let all those baserunners Lowder keeps allowing do the rest.

Pirates ML-121

CONF

60%

MLB9:40 PM

Red Sox @ Athletics

**Gary's Take** The hottest team in baseball is rolling into a hot Sacramento night to close out this series, and they're sending a pitcher who's won twelve games against a team that doesn't even have a real starter going — just a parade of relievers. Boston has been winning almost every game they play lately, especially away from home, while the A's have been losing over and over and can't even win in their own ballpark. And the A's are falling apart physically. Langeliers is done for the year, Rooker's been out since June, Gelof is still hurt, Leiter just had hip surgery that ends his season, and Nick Kurtz is playing a day after getting hit on the forearm by a fastball, with doctors still waiting on his scan. Mason Barnett is making his first start of the season in front of one of the worst bullpens in the league, and left-handed hitters have absolutely crushed him. That's a whole game of duct-tape pitching on a night when the ball flies in this park, against a Boston lineup where everybody's hitting — Monasterio has been on fire for two weeks, and Durbin and Rafaela just keep piling up hits. Meanwhile the A's aren't scoring much and are giving up a lot more than they score. But I'm not paying the steep price just to bet Boston to win — not with Sonny Gray coming off a rough night in Toronto where he gave up a bunch of hits and runs, and honestly he's been getting a little lucky lately. The smarter play is betting Boston to win by at least two runs. All three of their wins over the A's this week came by exactly two, this offense keeps knocking out the starter and feasting on the weak middle relievers, and Oakland just doesn't have enough healthy bats to slug it out all game. Give me Boston to win it with room to spare.

Red Sox -1.5-122

CONF

62%

MLB9:40 PM

Giants @ Padres

It's the night before the trade deadline in San Diego, and these two teams could not be in more different places. The Padres have won five in a row and look like a club trying to convince their bosses to go add more help. The Giants are buried in the standings, selling off players, and sending Robbie Ray to the mound in what everyone knows is probably his last start for them. Yes, you have to pay a heavy price to back San Diego tonight — but expensive doesn't mean wrong. The pitching matchup is what really sells me. San Diego's starter, JP Sears, throws left-handed, and almost all of the Giants' best hitters — Arraez, Eldridge, Devers, Jung Hoo Lee — bat left-handed, which is exactly the kind of hitter a lefty pitcher gives fits. Devers in particular has been lost against left-handers all year and has barely done a thing against Sears in their past meetings. Now flip it: San Diego's lineup is stacked with right-handed bats built to feast on a lefty like Ray, and they're all red hot — Tatis, Machado, France, and Merrill have been on an absolute tear the last two weeks, and Machado has homered off Ray three times in just a handful of tries. Add in that the Giants have been awful away from home and lead the league in giving away outs with sloppy defense, and everything points the same way. My one honest worry is San Diego's bullpen — their best reliever has been used a lot lately, and Sears usually doesn't pitch deep into games. But they've got fresh arms ready behind him, and the other option is trusting a Giants bullpen full of guys who get hit hard and a closer who can't stop walking people. Don't read too much into the Giants' blowout win yesterday — a game so lopsided they let a position player pitch — because their road struggles tell the real story, and they've actually been worse than usual right after a win. The hottest team in the league, at home, playing for something, against a team packing its bags. I'll pay the price. Padres to win.

Padres ML-166

CONF

67%

MLB10:10 PM

Mariners @ Dodgers

**Gary's Take** It's the last night before the trade deadline, the Dodgers and Mariners are playing the deciding game of their series in Los Angeles, and the biggest story is who's NOT playing — Shohei Ohtani is out of the lineup tonight, nursing a sore knee and arm. That matters a lot when the Dodgers are asking you to pay a steep price to back them behind young starter Roki Sasaki, while Seattle sends Bryan Woo to the mound to close out a long road trip with the series tied at a game apiece. Woo's numbers look worse than he's actually pitched — hitters rarely make solid contact off him, and right-handed batters in particular have struggled badly against him. Here's the problem for the Dodgers: without Ohtani, their lineup is loaded with exactly those right-handed hitters. Sasaki is the flip side. His strikeout pitch is legit and he's coming off his two best starts of the year, but his fastball gets hit hard and right-handed hitters have done real damage against him. Seattle's righty bats have already shown it in this series — Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez both homered, and Dominic Canzone, who crushes fastballs, has been on a home run tear this week. Late in the game, Seattle has the edge too: their best relievers all got the night off yesterday, while the Dodgers' top lefty has pitched two days in a row and their closer just got back from a three-month injury layoff. Look, I respect the Dodgers — best team in their league, tough at home, and Sasaki heating up is the real danger here, which is why I'm not betting big. But that steep price is built on the Dodger name and a superstar who isn't hitting tonight. Take Ohtani out and this is an even pitching matchup where the underdog's hitters match up better against the starter and their bullpen is fresher. Getting paid extra to take that side is exactly where I want to be. Give me the Mariners.

Mariners ML+124

CONF

62%

Player props

MLB · Rangers @ Rays

Ezequiel Duran

Duran's the hottest hitter in this lineup, two homers and a .333 average over his last week, and he's not missing much right now either — an 11 percent whiff rate over his recent games. McClanahan has actually been more hittable against right-handed batters than lefties this season, and Duran's a righty seeing the ball well. Extra bases is the number I want at this price.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+157

MLB · Rangers @ Rays

Wyatt Langford

Langford's hitting the ball as hard as he has all season — better than 92 miles an hour average exit velocity in his recent games — and he's reached base with a hit in eleven of his last fifteen. He's also on the better side of McClanahan's platoon numbers as a right-handed hitter. It's a short price, but the form and the matchup both point the same direction.

OVER 0.5 Hits-198

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Ezequiel Duran

Duran's been on one — two home runs and six RBI over his last week, an OPS pushing past 1.000, and it's not just a hot stretch in a vacuum, he's got a homer on his card against Shane McClanahan already. His swings have been short in that stretch too, missing on just eleven percent of them, so the contact underneath the power looks real, not just a hot bounce here and there. McClanahan lives on the changeup and slider to get swings and misses, but a hitter missing that little right now isn't the profile that usually falls for it. At this price, I'm betting the market hasn't caught up to how he's actually swinging the bat this week.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+820

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Jake Burger

Burger's the most reliable power threat in this lineup right now — two homers in his last week, four different games with one over his last fifteen, and a home run already on the board against McClanahan in a small sample. The exit-velocity readings on his recent contact back it up, multiple balls barreled up over his last handful of games. Tropicana plays fair to pitchers, not hitters, so I'm not expecting fireworks up and down this lineup tonight, but Burger doesn't need a hitter's park to do this — he's shown he can turn one around regardless of the building.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+405

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Caminero at home in a day game is a different hitter than Caminero on the road — over a thousand OPS with seventeen homers in his Tropicana at-bats this year, and day games have treated him nearly as well. He hasn't cleared the fence much the last couple weeks, but the hard contact hasn't gone anywhere, and Cole Winn's four-seamer — the pitch he'll lean on most as the opener today — sits right in the mid-90s Caminero has slugged over .700 against all season. Texas turning this into a bullpen game means Winn faces the top of the order just once, and Caminero sees his best pitch early. The price is short because the whole league knows what he can do — I'm paying for the real thing, not finding a discount.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+309

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Yandy Diaz

Diaz opened yesterday's game with a home run on the first pitch he saw, and hitters seeing the ball that well don't usually go quiet the next day. He's a completely different hitter at home than on the road this year, with an OPS well over a thousand in his Tropicana at-bats, and day games have been good to him too. Texas is turning to a bullpen game today behind an opener who's been hit hard all year, so Diaz gets an early look at an arm that's had trouble missing bats. I like catching him a day after he's already shown he's locked in, in the building where he does his best work.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+560

MLB HR · Rangers @ Rays

Victor Mesa Jr.

Mesa's quietly been the hottest power bat on this roster the last two weeks — three home runs in that stretch, and he's left the yard in five of his last fifteen games, the best rate on this board. He's cooled off the last few days, but that's a short enough stretch I'm not reading much into it against a burst that real. He's done real damage against pitches that fade and dive out of the zone, and Cole Winn's splitter is exactly that shape of pitch out of the gate today. He's priced the same as teammates who haven't done a fraction of what he's done lately — that gap is the bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Royals @ Twins

Noah Cameron

This is the simplest read on the board. He's walked multiple hitters in each of his last three starts, and he's cleared this number in seven of his last eight outings overall — a 1.41 WHIP doesn't lie about the free passes. I don't need a deep lineup breakdown for this one; it's a pitcher with a command problem that hasn't gone away. The price is short because the market knows it too, but I'd rather lay it on a trend this consistent than chase a better number elsewhere.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-165

MLB · Royals @ Twins

Nick Loftin

Loftin's the hottest bat in this lineup right now — seven hits in his last twenty at-bats, and he's been on base or driving the ball basically every game for two weeks. He's also got a real history against Ober specifically, three hits in nine career at-bats. The price is short because getting one hit in a game is supposed to be short, but a guy hitting .350 over his last week getting there again tonight is a number I want more of than the price is asking for.

OVER 0.5 Hits-182

MLB · Yankees @ White Sox

Sean Burke

Burke's struck out at least eight hitters in four of his last six starts, riding a knuckle curve that misses bats about a third of the time it's thrown. He's also going deep enough into games — five-plus innings every start lately — that the strikeout total isn't getting capped by an early hook. Eight feels like the honest number for what he's shown all year, and I'm getting a plus number to bet on him reaching it.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts+102

MLB · Yankees @ White Sox

Braden Montgomery

Montgomery's got a hit in eleven of his last fifteen, and because he's a switch-hitter, Weathers throwing left-handed doesn't take away his best side of the plate the way it does for a couple of his teammates tonight. He's squaring the ball up consistently these last two weeks. Weathers leans on two different fastballs almost half the time and neither one misses bats — that's a matchup built for a contact hitter, and that's what Montgomery's been.

OVER 0.5 Hits-149

MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

Burleson's a left-handed bat getting a right-handed arm tonight, and that's exactly the matchup he wants. Against righties this year he's hitting near .330 with an OPS pushing .950 — that's the shape of his whole season, not a hot week.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+112

MLB · Cubs @ Cardinals

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki has feasted on Pallante specifically, four hits in eight career at-bats with a walk mixed in and no strikeouts. On top of that he's been one of the best hitters in the sport the last couple weeks, over a 1.000 OPS with three home runs in that stretch, hitting second in a lineup that's been scoring in bunches. Getting to a hit, run, or RBI combined for two is a low bar for a player doing what he's doing right now against a pitcher he's already proven he can handle.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-120

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Abrams is doing everything right now — north of .400 with seven home runs over his last two weeks, and that's not the kind of stretch that reads like it's about to cool off, it reads like a guy seeing the ball early. Grant Holmes leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch, nearly a third of the time, and it's been the pitch hitters have handled best against him all season. Abrams has hammered fastballs from the right side all year. Two-plus total bases isn't asking him to do anything he hasn't already been doing most nights — it's just asking the streak to hold one more game.

OVER 2.5 Total Bases+206

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

Drake Baldwin

Baldwin's been the best bat in that Atlanta lineup for two weeks — over .430 with five homers in his last fifteen games — and he's a noticeably better hitter against right-handers than lefties. Tonight he gets a right-hander who hasn't faced live big-league hitters since May. Jake Irvin's had three clean rehab starts, but rehab innings and a real Atlanta lineup are two different things, and I don't need Baldwin to do anything special here — one extra-base knock or a couple of hits and this is over. He's been clearing that bar more nights than not.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Griffin Conine

Conine is running as hot as anyone in that Marlins lineup right now — thirteen hits and five home runs over his last fifteen games, and he delivered the walk-off single and then the go-ahead pinch-hit homer in the two biggest at-bats of Miami's series against Philadelphia. He's a lefty bat, and the split against McLean tells the story: right-handers have gotten to him for a .672 OPS and seven homers allowed, while lefties have been kept mostly in check. Conine has reached base or driven in a run in thirteen of his last fifteen games. At this price I'm just riding the form and the handedness match, not overthinking it.

OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI-160

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Nolan McLean

McLean's swing-and-miss stuff has been climbing every time out — his whiff rate over his last several starts has gone 23, 21, 18, 30, then 40 percent in his last outing, and the curveball is playing as a legitimate out pitch, missing bats at a 40 percent clip on the year. He's punched out at least seven batters in four of his last six starts, and the one time he fell short of that he still worked a full six innings on five strikeouts.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+100

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales is hitting .358 over his last fifteen games, and the swing-and-miss numbers back it up — his whiff rate this past week is down to 14 percent, so he's not just getting lucky, he's actually squaring the ball up. He's cleared two total bases in nine of his last fifteen games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+120

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez is in the cleanup spot tonight, so whatever soreness came from getting hit by a pitch over the weekend clearly isn't keeping him out. He's got four home runs in his last fifteen games, and with runners in scoring position this year he's hitting .382 with a 1.359 OPS — a completely different hitter in those spots.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Griffin Conine

Conine is in the middle of the best stretch of his season — .300 with five home runs over his last fifteen games, capped by the go-ahead two-run homer he hit off a hanging changeup last night to finish off the sweep of Philadelphia. What I like specifically for tonight: his two best pitches to hit this year have been the four-seam fastball and the sinker, and those are the two pitches Nolan McLean throws most, well over half of everything he throws. McLean misses a lot of bats, but left-handed hitters have gone deep against him at a noticeably higher clip than right-handed hitters this season. Conine's a lefty seeing exactly the pitches he handles best from exactly the side that's given McLean the most trouble.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Alvarez

Alvarez is the hottest bat in the Mets lineup right now — three home runs and a 1.124 OPS over his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty production, the contact quality is there too: 93.7 mph average exit velocity with a couple of barrels mixed in over his last week. He's a right-handed hitter who's done real damage against right-handed pitching all year, and Eury Pérez has a genuine platoon problem to lean on — he's held lefties to a .622 OPS but let righties hit .213 with nine home runs in 155 at-bats. Hot catcher, homer-prone matchup for exactly his side of the plate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Kyle Stowers

Stowers has the loudest contact of anybody in this game right now — 96.7 mph average exit velocity over his last week with three barrels on fifteen balls in play, and he's already got two home runs over his last four games. He's left-handed, and Nolan McLean's numbers this season are noticeably softer against lefties than righties — a .672 OPS and seven home runs allowed in 254 at-bats, compared to .566 and four in 182 at-bats against right-handers. Nobody on either roster is squaring the ball up better than Stowers is right now, and he's got the platoon lean to go with it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez has gone deep six times in his last fifteen games, the hottest home run rate on this whole board, and it isn't cheap contact — he's slugging over .850 against sinkers and over 1.000 against sliders this season. Rhett Lowder throws his sinker more than any other pitch, close to a third of the time, and it's been the most hittable pitch in his arsenal all year. Put a hitter who does his best power damage on sinkers in the box against a pitcher who can't get his sinker to behave, in a park that turns fly balls into home runs, and I like the shape of this one. He hits for power from both sides of the plate, so the same-handed matchup doesn't concern me.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+460

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Heriberto Hernandez

Hernandez has three home runs in his last seven games alone, and the contact backs it up — 90.3 mph average exit velocity with three barrels over his last seventeen balls in play. He's a right-handed bat, and McLean's actual split this year has been a touch tougher on righties than lefties, so the matchup math isn't a gift here. But three homers in a week is too loud a signal to ignore, and I like backing that kind of form even against a slightly tougher shell than I'd prefer.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+520

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

De La Cruz is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in either lineup tonight — his recent exit velocity readings are the loudest on the board, and he's already put three balls out in his last fifteen games. He's a switch-hitter with real power from both sides, and tonight he draws a reliever making his first career start after more than two hundred relief appearances, throwing a fastball-sinker-changeup mix that lines up with three of the four pitch types he's done the most damage against this season. He's also been a considerably better hitter at home and at night than on the road or during the day, and both of those apply tonight. I want his bat in this park against an unproven arm.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Abrams has seven home runs over his last fifteen games, and the underlying contact backs the power up even as the strikeouts have crept up with it — 86.8 mph average exit velocity and three barrels among his last batch of balls in play says this is more than empty hard-hit luck. He's hitting .381 with a .639 slugging mark against four-seam fastballs this season, and Grant Holmes leans on his four-seamer nearly a third of the time, which has also been his most hittable pitch by the numbers — a .392 expected wOBA allowed and only a 15.6 percent whiff rate. Holmes' 3.79 ERA is also running well ahead of his 4.72 expected ERA, telling me hitters have squared him up more than his record shows. Abrams gets the exact pitch he wants from a pitcher whose command of it has been shakier than the ledger suggests, at a price that undersells how loud his bat has been.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Marcus Semien

Semien has two home runs over his last week, and half of his balls in play during that stretch have qualified as hard-hit at a 91.8 mph average exit velocity. He's a right-handed bat, and Eury Pérez has a real split working against him tonight — right-handed hitters have gone deep against him at more than double the rate left-handed hitters have this season, nine home runs in 155 at-bats compared to four in 196. Semien's a proven power bat heating up at the same time the guy on the mound has shown a specific hole for exactly his side of the plate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+577

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

James Wood

Wood is a left-handed hitter with real over-the-fence pop — 20 home runs at home this season, 21 against right-handers — and Grant Holmes gives him exactly the pitches he wants. Wood is slugging .705 against four-seam fastballs and .643 against sinkers this season, and those two pitches make up nearly 43 percent of Holmes' mix, both of which have been hit hard all year — .392 and .386 expected wOBA allowed, respectively.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

JJ Bleday

Bleday's batting average has been cold the last couple weeks, but the quality of contact says otherwise — a quarter of his balls in play over his last fifteen games have gone for barrels. His expected numbers against the four-seam fastball are running well ahead of what he's actually hit into this year, meaning the loud contact is there even when the results haven't shown it, and he's already hitting the sinker well on top of that.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Drake Baldwin

Baldwin is running as hot as anyone in this lineup — five home runs and a .431 average over his last fifteen games, with a 91 mph average exit velocity behind it, so this reads as a real hot streak and not a lucky one. Jake Irvin is making his first start in over two months tonight, and the pitch that's given him the most trouble by the numbers is his sinker — a .486 expected wOBA and .318 average against, easily his softest offering.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart is hitting .333 with a home run and five RBI over his last week, and his numbers against the exact pitches Ramírez leans on hardest tonight back it up — his four-seamer and sinker, both sitting in the mid-to-upper nineties, and Stewart is slugging well over .500 against each of them this season. He's also already hit the bulk of his home runs this year against right-handed pitching, which is exactly what he's getting from the opener tonight. Clean pitch-type fit on a bat that's swinging it well right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Dylan Crews

Crews has three home runs and a 1.135 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the exit velocity backs it up as real — 94.5 mph average and three barrels among his last fourteen balls in play is an excellent recent rate for a hitter clearly seeing the ball well right now. Grant Holmes hasn't been especially tough on right-handed bats this season — a .726 OPS and six home runs allowed in 164 at-bats — and his 3.79 ERA has been outrunning his 4.72 expected ERA by nearly a full run, telling me the results have been better than the process. At six hundred fifty, I don't need to be right often for this to pay, and Crews' recent underlying numbers say he's live right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Brandon Lowe

Lowe is locked in right now, hitting close to .430 with a home run over his last week, and the exit velocity behind that stretch backs it up — he's not just getting lucky bloopers. He's a left-handed bat, and Rhett Lowder has had a real problem with lefties all season, allowing eight home runs to left-handed hitters compared to just one against righties. I don't need a personal history against Lowder to like this one — the pitcher's own split plus a hitter running hot is enough for me to want this shape at this price.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+425

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Matt Olson

Olson's batting average the last two weeks doesn't match his exit velocity — 95.1 mph average and three barrels on sixteen balls in play is the profile of a hitter barreling the ball without the results to show for it. Jake Irvin's two softest pitches by expected wOBA this year are his sinker and his cutter, and Olson has handled both well this season — a .418 expected wOBA and .560 slug against the sinker, .415 and .722 against the cutter. Those two pitches make up better than a third of what Irvin throws. He's clearly hitting the ball hard right now against a rusty starter whose weakest stuff happens to be exactly what he eats.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Ceddanne Rafaela

Rafaela's swinging the best bat in this lineup right now — three home runs and eleven RBI over his last fifteen games, and he's doing it right where it counts, hitting .330 with a .920 OPS with runners in scoring position this season. He's in the two-hole tonight, so he's ticketed for four-plus looks against a Mason Barnett start that Oakland is treating as a bullpen game, with a staff behind him that's allowing runs at a 5.28 ERA clip. Getting to one combined hit, run, or RBI is a low bar for a hitter this locked in, against pitching this exposed.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-180

MLB · Red Sox @ Athletics

Andruw Monasterio

Monasterio hit the go-ahead home run in the tenth inning last night and he's been doing damage like that for weeks — .429 with a 1.229 OPS over his last fifteen games, the hottest bat on this roster since the calendar turned to July. He's down in the eight-hole tonight with the lineup reshuffled around the trade deadline, but that's roster construction, not his swing. Mason Barnett is making his first career start after a season entirely in relief, his fastball and slider are both getting hit hard by the underlying numbers, and Oakland is using him as the opener in a bullpen game — meaning this lineup sees fresh, short-outing arms all night instead of one pitcher working through the order. Two total bases for a hitter running this hot, in a park playing small with the wind blowing out, is a number I want at plus money.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+145

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Ty France

Ty France is in the best two-week stretch of his season — eighteen hits in his last fifty at-bats with five home runs mixed in, and it's legitimate contact, not just bloopers finding grass. He's cleared this number in fourteen of his last fifteen games. Batting cleanup behind Tatis and Machado means traffic on the bases and RBI chances most nights, and Robbie Ray has been getting hit harder than his ERA suggests lately. This only needs one knock, one run scored, or one driven in — and right now France is doing at least one of those in nearly every game he plays.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-108

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Manny Machado has been a problem for Robbie Ray specifically for years — three home runs and an OPS north of 1.100 in their head-to-head history — and he's hitting just as well right now, eleven-for-twenty-seven over the last week with five RBI. This number has hit in twelve of his last fifteen games. He's in the three-hole for a team that's won five straight and playing with real confidence, and against a pitcher he's already got a track record of handling, it doesn't take much — a single, a run, a knock — to get there. Form and history are pointing the same way.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-135

MLB · Mariners @ Dodgers

Josh Naylor

Naylor's been putting together quality at-bats lately, and it's shown up in extra bases, not just empty singles — a double just two nights ago against this same Dodgers pitching staff, part of a stretch where he's cleared this total in more than half his games recently. He's also a left-handed bat facing a pitcher who's allowed a .755 OPS and ten home runs to lefties this season, which tells you Sasaki's stuff doesn't neutralize that side of the plate the way the strikeout totals might suggest. Naylor doesn't need to go deep to clear this number, he just needs one more ball to find a gap, and the recent trend says that's exactly what's happening.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+163

MLB · Mariners @ Dodgers

Tommy Edman

Edman got bumped into the leadoff spot tonight with Ohtani out of the lineup, which locks in an extra look at the plate over the course of the game. He's a switch-hitter who turns into a real different, better hitter from the left side against right-handed pitching — a .898 OPS against right-handers this year — and Woo throws exclusively from the right side. He's carrying an .859 OPS over his last two weeks on top of that platoon edge. This is the exact look that plays to his strengths.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+129

Hub research

180

bullpen_fatigueNYY @ CHW
New York Yankees pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Yankees pen has thrown 14 innings the last three games, but it's spread across six arms rather than piled onto one or two — nobody's actually worked both of the last two days. Doval and Cruz carry the highest pitch counts of the group, so those are the arms I'd watch if this stays tight late. White Sox pen has taken the same beating this week, so neither side is walking in with a fresh, high-leverage arm behind the starter.
starter_team_recordCHC @ STL
Cubs 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Javier Assad's last eight starts, and he's on the mound again tonight.
starter_team_recordBOS @ OAK
Athletics 1-7 in Mason Barnett's last 8 starts
Mason Barnett gets the ball for Oakland tonight, and the club is 1-7 in his last eight turns — six losses in a row with him starting.
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Nolan McLean (RHP)
Liam Hicks hits right-handers a ton better than lefties, .882 to .483, and he's leading off tonight against a right-hander in Nolan McLean. Clean platoon spot to open the game.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCHC @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Javier Assad (RHP)
Alec Burleson is close to a thousand OPS against right-handers this season and well under .500 against lefties. He hits third tonight against Javier Assad, a right, so the platoon lines up in his favor.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: 1.381 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams is running a 1.381 OPS over his last 15 days against a .926 mark for the season — that's a real heater, not a good week. He's got 27 homers already, and his total-bases number tonight is down at 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueNYY @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
White Sox pen has logged over 15 innings across three games, and Jordan Hicks worked both of the last two days — he's probably not the first man up if this one's close late. Richards, Murphy and Hudson have also gone twice already, with Richards carrying the heaviest pitch count in the group at 43. Schweitzer and Taylor are the fresher legs down there tonight.
starter_team_recordSF @ SD
Giants 6-2 in Robbie Ray's last 8 starts
San Francisco is 6-2 in Robbie Ray's last eight starts. A good recent trend for the Giants heading into tonight.
starter_team_recordPIT @ CIN
Reds 2-6 in Rhett Lowder's last 8 starts
Rhett Lowder starts for Cincinnati tonight, and the Reds are 2-6 in his last eight turns through the rotation.
starter_team_recordSEA @ LAD
Dodgers 6-2 in Roki Sasaki's last 8 starts
Dodgers are 6-2 in Roki Sasaki's last eight starts and have won four straight with him going. The record's trending the same direction as everything else with him lately.
starter_team_recordKC @ MIN
Royals 2-6 in Noah Cameron's last 8 starts
Noah Cameron starts for Kansas City tonight, and the Royals are 2-6 in his last eight turns — three straight losses with him on the mound.
starter_team_recordBOS @ OAK
Red Sox 6-2 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Sonny Gray's starts have been good to Boston all year — 6-2 in his last eight — and he's on the bump again tonight.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Max Fried
Monday's White Sox start is already locked in, whatever it was. Saturday at the Cubs is the one that's still live, and it's the front half of the same series Cole closes out Sunday. A 2.51 xERA is as good as anyone's on this list, one start or two. Locked into every lineup for Saturday, no exceptions.
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: 1.262 OPS in Last 15 Days
Drake Baldwin's last 15 days have him at a 1.262 OPS, more than 400 points above his .857 season mark. He's got 20 homers on the year, and tonight's total-bases number is set at just 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_team_recordNYY @ CHW
White Sox 6-2 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
Sean Burke's turns have been good to Chicago — 6-2 in his last eight starts — and he's back on the mound tonight.
rest_fatigueCHC @ STL
17.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for STL
Relievers have absorbed 17.7 innings over the last 3 games (Hunter Dobbins (5.3) and Justin Bruihl (3) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 8.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-2
ballpark_shiftPIT @ CIN
Rhett Lowder's ERA drops to 3.09 at Great American Ball Park
Rhett Lowder is a different pitcher at home — 3.09 ERA across 8 games at Great American Ball Park against 7.71 everywhere else, with hitters down to .235 there. He gets to work in front of that split again tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
Reds pen has worked 16 innings over the last three games, and three of the six arms used most — Garcia, Petty and Johnson — have all pitched both of the last two days. Antone and Burke are about the only fresh legs left down there, which puts real weight on the Reds starter to get through the lineup more than once tonight.
heat_checkSF @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.091 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's last 15 days (1.091 OPS) look nothing like his .681 season line — one of the bigger swings on the board. His total-bases number tonight is 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
streakingNYY @ CHW
NYY games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Five straight unders in Yankees games — averaging 7.2 combined runs against lines that have been sitting around 10.7. Tonight's total is 7.5.
P final total 3 vs 7.5
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Padres
Manny Machado
Gary's Take Machado is the best power bet on this board for me. He's carrying a four-homer, .967 OPS stretch into tonight, and the underlying contact backs it up — he's still averaging better than 91 mph off the bat in that recent run, not just getting lucky with placement.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offCHC @ STL
Jordan Walker: .542 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Javier Assad
Jordan Walker's bat has gone cold — .542 OPS over his last 15 days against an .844 season mark — and tonight he draws Javier Assad, a righty, which is already the tougher side of his own platoon split. Everything's stacked against him at once here.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftKC @ MIN
Bailey Ober owns a 2.68 ERA at Target Field — 7.15 everywhere else
Bailey Ober turns into a different pitcher at Target Field — 2.68 ERA across 47 innings there against 7.15 in his innings elsewhere, hitters down to .195 in that park. He's pitching at home tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 7/27
Zack Wheeler
The Marlins start is done and in the books. What's left is Sunday on the road against the Orioles, and he draws Bradish dead-on across the mound to close the week. A 2.66 xERA on the season, that's a start you plan the rest of your lineup around. Full go Sunday — no reason to have him anywhere but the active lineup.
platoon_edgeTEX @ TB
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Justin Foscue's numbers against lefties are well ahead of his numbers against righties — .980 OPS against lefties in 70 at-bats versus .600 the other way. He hits fifth tonight against left-hander Shane McClanahan.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
CJ Abrams
Gary's Take Abrams has run into seven home runs across his last fifteen games — a .408 average and a 1.381 OPS to go with it, the hottest bat on the field tonight regardless of uniform. Seven in fifteen means he's gone deep in a third of his games recently, and this price implies something closer to one-in-five.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeBOS @ OAK
Nick Kurtz (bats L) hits 1st against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Nick Kurtz leading off against a right-hander is close to peak Kurtz — .984 OPS in 212 at-bats that way. He gets Sonny Gray from the top of the order tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Nolan McLean (RHP), batting 4th
Kyle Stowers has a real split — .837 against right-handers, .499 against lefties — and he's hitting cleanup tonight against a right in Nolan McLean. The matchup favors him.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueCHC @ STL
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 17.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cardinals pen carries the heaviest three-day total in this group at 17.7 innings, but a big chunk of that is Hunter Dobbins going five-plus in a bulk role on 85 pitches, which spares the rest of the staff. Bruihl is the only reliever who's worked both of the last two days — Graceffo, Strzelecki, Stanek and Soriano have each gone just once and look available tonight.
head_to_headKC @ MIN
Royals are 6-3 vs Twins this season
Royals hold the season series over Minnesota at 6-3 and took the last meeting 4-0.
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Payton Tolle
He's already faced the Athletics once this week. Saturday sends him to the Dodgers to close it out, a day ahead of teammate Bennett on the same trip. 2.94 xERA backs the PLAN_AROUND grade. START — one turn left on the week, and the tier says start it.
rest_fatiguePIT @ CIN
CIN's pen has logged 16 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 16 innings out of the pen — Jose Franco (3.7) and Julian Garcia (3) carried the load. PIT's pen has thrown 15.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-3
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Mets
Francisco Alvarez
Gary's Take Alvarez is the hottest bat in the Mets lineup right now — three home runs and a 1.124 OPS over his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty production, the contact quality is there too: 93.7 mph average exit velocity with a couple of barrels mixed in over his last week. He's a right-handed hitter who's done real damage against right-handed pitching all year, and Eury Pérez has a genuine platoon problem to lean on — he's held lefties to a .622 OPS but let righties hit .213 with nine home runs in 155 at-bats.
P 0 HR — 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Mets
Griffin Conine
Gary's Take Conine is the hottest bat in this game right now — ten hits in his last thirty-three at-bats with four home runs, and the signature swing of Miami's turnaround was his pinch-hit, two-run shot last night that flipped a blowout deficit into a series sweep. The matchup sets up for him too: McLean leans on his sinker and four-seamer more than half the time, and those are exactly the two pitches Conine has done the most damage against all season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Rhett Lowder (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe's platoon gap is real — .889 OPS against righties, .613 against lefties — and he's hitting 2nd against right-hander Rhett Lowder tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
head_to_headPIT @ CIN
Pirates are 6-3 vs Reds this season
Pirates are 6-3 against the Reds this season and beat them 9-4 the last time out.
head_to_headMIA @ NYM
Marlins are 7-4 vs Mets this season
Marlins lead the season series over the Mets 7-4, but New York just took the last meeting 10-1 and will be looking to build on it tonight.
cooling_offTEX @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .453 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cole Winn
Jonathan Aranda's bat has gone quiet — .453 OPS over his last 15 days against an .816 season mark. He does draw a right-hander tonight in Cole Winn, and RHP has been where he's actually done his damage this year at .881.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offTEX @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .534 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cole Winn
Yandy Diaz is in a rough stretch at the plate — .534 OPS over his last 15 days against an .841 season mark. He faces right-hander Cole Winn tonight, and that's the side where his season line still looks like Yandy Diaz — .846 OPS.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Jake Bennett
Same trip as Tolle, a day behind him — Athletics already played Tuesday, Dodgers still to come Sunday. 3.08 xERA is the back half of a strong Red Sox rotation week, and Sunday is the whole week now. START — Sunday's the only lever left to pull.
heat_checkSF @ SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.: 1.081 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fernando Tatis Jr. is running a 1.081 OPS over his last 15 days against a .756 season mark. Total bases set at 1.5 for him tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
rest_fatigueNYY @ CHW
CHW's bullpen has covered 15.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 15.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Trevor Richards (3) and Tyler Schweitzer (3). NYY's pen has thrown 14 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-2
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Mets
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Stowers has the loudest contact of anybody in this game right now — 96.7 mph average exit velocity over his last week with three barrels on fifteen balls in play, and he's already got two home runs over his last four games. He's left-handed, and Nolan McLean's numbers this season are noticeably softer against lefties than righties — a .672 OPS and seven home runs allowed in 254 at-bats, compared to .566 and four in 182 at-bats against right-handers.
P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
Drake Baldwin
Gary's Take Baldwin has five home runs in his last fifteen games and he's hitting .431 over that stretch with a 1.262 OPS — that's not a good week, that's a sustained run. Plus-300 implies roughly one-in-four; he's actually gone deep in one of every three games recently.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds: .569 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Rhett Lowder
Bryan Reynolds has cooled to a .569 OPS over his last 15 days from an .842 season mark. He still draws right-hander Rhett Lowder tonight — technically his weaker side, even though it's a .829 OPS clip.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Twins
Salvador Perez
Gary's Take Perez is running hot right now — four home runs in his last fifteen games, four barreled balls in his last twenty-one he's put in play, and a .956 OPS over that stretch. He's already gone deep against this Twins pitching staff earlier in this very series.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkKC @ MIN
Salvador Perez: .956 OPS in Last 15 Days
Salvador Perez is doing real damage right now — .956 OPS over his last 15 days against a .634 season mark, with 15 homers already on the year. His total bases number tonight is 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
two_start_weekCincinnati Reds — week of 7/27
Chase Burns
Guardians game already happened Tuesday. The one that counts now is Sunday at home against the Pirates, closing the week on his own mound. A 3.2 xERA on the year, that's plan-around form even down to a single turn. Starts Sunday, easy call.
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ CIN
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pirates pen has thrown 15.7 innings over three games, but nobody's actually worked both of the last two days. Marinaccio and Soto have the multiple appearances — Soto's needed 45 pitches to get through just two innings, so he's been grinding rather than cruising. Next to the Reds pen across the diamond, Pittsburgh looks like the fresher group tonight.
streakingTEX @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 3 runs a night against an average line of 6.1. Tonight's number sits at 6.5.
P final total 5 vs 6.5
platoon_edgeWSH @ ATL
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Luis Garcia Jr. handles right-handed pitching a lot better than lefties, .895 to .663, and he's in the two-hole tonight against a right in Grant Holmes.
P 3-for-5, 9 TB
platoon_edgeWSH @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr. (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Ronald Acuna Jr. does more damage against right-handers, .846 versus .620 against lefties, and he draws one in Jake Irvin tonight from the two-hole.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
streakingTEX @ TB
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers games have gone over four straight — 9.3 combined runs a game against lines averaging 7.5. Tonight's number sits at 7.75.
P final total 5 vs 7.75
cooling_offNYY @ CHW
Trent Grisham: .330 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sean Burke
Trent Grisham's cold at the plate — .330 OPS over his last 15 days against a .698 season mark. He does get a right-hander tonight in Sean Burke, which has been his better side this year at .702.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
streakingNYY @ CHW
CHW games have gone OVER 4 straight
The over has cashed 4 in a row in CHW games: 11.3 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 7.4. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 3 vs 7.5
gary_hr_threatsRangers @ Rays
Ezequiel Duran
Gary's Take Duran's been on one — two home runs and six RBI over his last week, an OPS pushing past 1.000, and it's not just a hot stretch in a vacuum, he's got a homer on his card against Shane McClanahan already. His swings have been short in that stretch too, missing on just eleven percent of them, so the contact underneath the power looks real, not just a hot bounce here and there.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeKC @ MIN
Austin Martin (bats R) draws Noah Cameron (LHP), batting 1st
Austin Martin's platoon split is real — .799 OPS against lefties versus .599 against righties — and he leads off tonight against left-hander Noah Cameron.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCHC @ STL
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Lars Nootbaar is a much better hitter against right-handers, .788 to .499, and he's got one tonight in Javier Assad from the five-hole.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkBOS @ OAK
Jeff McNeil: 1.105 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jeff McNeil's last 15 days show a 1.105 OPS against a .642 season mark, though it's worth noting that's just 29 plate appearances. His total-bases line tonight is 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Angels — week of 7/27
Walbert Ureña
Monday against the Astros is water under the bridge. Sunday's home date with the Brewers is the only piece of this week left to use, and a 3.27 xERA says he's earned plan-around trust regardless of how many turns are left. Start him Sunday and move on.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Gerrit Cole
Tuesday's White Sox turn is already history. Sunday at the Cubs is what's left — the back half of the same series Fried opens Saturday. A 3.29 xERA keeps him in plan-around company even on one start. In the lineup Sunday, no debate.
heat_checkCHC @ STL
Nico Hoerner: .930 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nico Hoerner's been on one — .930 OPS over his last 15 days against a .665 season mark. His total-bases number tonight is 4.5, which looks gettable given where his bat is right now.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
bullpen_fatigueSF @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Padres pen actually has the lightest three-day workload of this group at 13 innings, but Mason Miller's pitched in all three of San Diego's games and worked both of the last two days — that's about as taxed as a reliever gets. Rodriguez is also on back-to-back days. Canning's bulk outing and Estrada's light 22-pitch appearance are the closest thing to fresh arms left in that pen tonight.
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 7/27
Keider Montero
Monday's matchup with Bradish and the Orioles is already decided, so half the two-start plan you'd have had on him is gone. Only the Sunday assignment against the Athletics is left to squeeze value from, and 3.49 on the year is fine, not a name to chase. Streaming piece only — start for Sunday if you need the innings, otherwise there's no reason to be holding him.
platoon_edgeTEX @ TB
Jonathan Aranda (bats L) hits 2nd against Cole Winn (RHP)
Jonathan Aranda hits right-handers a good deal better than lefties — .881 OPS in 273 at-bats against righties compared to .663 versus lefties — and he bats second tonight against right-hander Cole Winn.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsRangers @ Rays
Jake Burger
Gary's Take Burger's the most reliable power threat in this lineup right now — two homers in his last week, four different games with one over his last fifteen, and a home run already on the board against McClanahan in a small sample. The exit-velocity readings on his recent contact back it up, multiple balls barreled up over his last handful of games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkBOS @ OAK
Andruw Monasterio: 1.229 OPS in Last 15 Days
Andruw Monasterio's 1.229 OPS over his last 15 days is a huge jump from his .780 season mark, though it comes in a thin 28-plate-appearance sample. Total bases at 1.5 tonight.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsRangers @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Gary's Take Caminero at home in a day game is a different hitter than Caminero on the road — over a thousand OPS with seventeen homers in his Tropicana at-bats this year, and day games have treated him nearly as well. He hasn't cleared the fence much the last couple weeks, but the hard contact hasn't gone anywhere, and Cole Winn's four-seamer — the pitch he'll lean on most as the opener today — sits right in the mid-90s Caminero has slugged over .700 against all season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
ownedSF @ SD
Manny Machado vs Robbie Ray: .273
Machado has owned Robbie Ray over their history — 6-for-22 with six walks for a 1.110 OPS — and he's hot right now too, a .967 OPS over his last 15 days. They meet again tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Randal Grichuk mashes left-handed pitching — .867 OPS in 99 at-bats there against .632 versus righties — and he's in the cleanup spot tonight against left-hander Ryan Weathers.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueWSH @ ATL
WSH's bullpen has covered 14 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14 relief innings in 3 games, led by Andrew Alvarez (4.3) and Orlando Ribalta (2). ATL's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-5
regression_tomorrowKC @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.69 ERA vs 7.33 xERA
Tomoyuki Sugano's 4.69 ERA is running more than two and a half runs better than his 7.33 xERA, and the contact explains why — 44.9% hard-hit, a 14.2% barrel rate, numbers that point to a .314 average against instead of the .268 he's actually allowed. That's a wide gap between the results and the process.
cooling_offWSH @ ATL
James Wood: .697 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
James Wood's come back down to earth a bit — .697 OPS over his last 15 days against a .950 season mark — but he still draws his strong side of the platoon tonight against right-hander Grant Holmes, where he's over a thousand OPS on the year.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
regression_tomorrowMIL @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.34 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Ryan Johnson's 7.34 ERA looks ugly and the .281 average against backs it up, but the contact quality underneath is ordinary — 34.6% hard-hit, an 8.1% barrel rate, nothing alarming in there. His xERA sits at 4.91, over two runs better than what's actually shown up on the scoreboard.
closer_watchNYY @ CHW
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 22 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
cooling_offSEA @ LAD
Andy Pages: .551 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bryan Woo
Andy Pages is cold — .551 OPS over his last 15 days against a .795 season mark — and he draws Bryan Woo on his weaker platoon side tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formSEA @ LAD
Roki Sasaki: 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts
Roki Sasaki's last three starts look nothing like his season line — 1.93 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 19 strikeouts over that stretch against a 4.71 ERA on the year. Most lines are still built around the season number.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
cooling_offCHC @ STL
Nathan Church: .306 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Javier Assad
Nathan Church is cold and gets the tougher matchup on top of it — a .306 OPS over his last 15 days, and tonight he faces Javier Assad, a right-hander who's held him to just a .617 OPS across 209 at-bats.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowPIT @ CIN
Hunter Greene: 7.06 ERA vs 4.69 xERA
Hunter Greene's ERA sits at 7.06 against a 4.69 xERA, but he's actually allowing a .253 average against an expected .269 — hitters haven't even gotten the bounces the contact quality suggests. He's getting hit hard fairly often at 46.6%, but the barrel rate is a modest 5.2%, so that contact mostly isn't finding the seats.
cooling_offNYY @ CHW
Ben Rice: .684 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sean Burke
Ben Rice has cooled off — .684 OPS over his last 15 days against a .935 season mark. He gets a right-hander tonight in Sean Burke, exactly the side he's crushed all year at 1.003.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offMIA @ NYM
Xavier Edwards: .502 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Xavier Edwards is in a rough stretch, a .502 OPS over his last 15 days against .775 for the season, though he does get his better side of the split tonight against right-hander Nolan McLean.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
two_start_weekMinnesota Twins — week of 7/27
Taj Bradley
Tuesday's home turn against the Royals is already in the books. That leaves one bite at the apple — Sunday on the road against the Mariners — and a 3.84 xERA makes this a matchup bet, not a name you trust blind. Bench unless you're streaming purely for the Sunday matchup — deep leagues only.
rest_fatigueBOS @ OAK
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Luis Morales (4.7) and Hogan Harris (2.3) the heaviest). BOS's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-4
rest_fatigueSF @ SD
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Miller (3) and Griffin Canning (3) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-1
two_start_weekBaltimore Orioles — week of 7/27
Kyle Bradish
Monday's start against Montero and the Tigers is already locked in. What's left is Sunday at home against Wheeler and the Phillies to close the week — a 4.00 xERA on the season isn't the form you want carrying a lone turn. Sit him Sunday — if you streamed him for the two-start week, cut bait now that it's down to this matchup alone.
park_weatherKC @ MIN
Wind blowing out 12 mph at Target Field tonight
Conditions at Target Field: Partly Cloudy, 84°, wind 12 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 9.
P final total 7 vs 9 (over lean)
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHW
Colson Montgomery (bats L) draws Ryan Weathers (LHP), batting 5th
Colson Montgomery has handled lefties well this year — .894 OPS in 118 at-bats there against .695 versus right-handers — and he bats fifth tonight against left-hander Ryan Weathers.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftTEX @ TB
At Tropicana Field, Shane McClanahan pitches to a 1.88 ERA
Shane McClanahan at home is a different pitcher — 1.88 ERA across 48 innings at Tropicana Field against 4.31 on the road, hitters down to .191 there. He gets to pitch at home again tonight.
P 3 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
rest_fatigueTEX @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 12.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Ian Seymour (4.7) and Bryan Baker (2). TEX's pen has thrown 7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-3
heat_checkPIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
Tyler Stephenson's last 15 days have produced a 1.042 OPS against a .722 mark for the year, a big jump. Eight homers on the season, and tonight's total-bases number is set at just 1.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 3 BB
starter_formMIA @ NYM
Nolan McLean: 1.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Nolan McLean has allowed two earned runs over his last 18 innings — a 1.00 ERA that doesn't look anything like his 3.32 season mark.
P 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
bullpen_fatigueWSH @ ATL
Washington Nationals pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Washington's pen has churned through ten arms in three games. Andrew Alvarez's 4.3-inning, 80-pitch outing was a real bulk workload, and Ribalta is the one who worked on both of the last two days. Williams, Palmquist and Kranick are the fresher names if the Nationals need length again tonight.
heat_checkMIA @ NYM
Francisco Alvarez: 1.124 OPS in Last 15 Days
Francisco Alvarez is running a 1.124 OPS over his last 15 days, well ahead of his .781 season mark. Twelve homers already, and tonight's total-bases number sits at just 0.5.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 2 BB
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez: .278 AVG vs .226 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez is hitting .278 against a .226 expected average, and his wOBA (.435) is running well ahead of his expected number (.370) too. The results are outrunning the underlying contact right now.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_tomorrowCHW @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.46 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Nick Martinez's 2.46 ERA is the best mark in this group, but a 4.35 expected number says he's living a little above his means. His actual contact numbers are genuinely good, 31.9% hard-hit and 6.8% barrels, so this isn't about surviving hard contact — it's that .245 actual against a .273 expected average has given him more cushion than the quality of contact suggests. Against the White Sox tomorrow, some pullback toward the mid-4s feels fair, even with real skill underneath it.
closer_watchCHC @ STL
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
closer_watchKC @ MIN
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
heat_checkMIA @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: .914 OPS in Last 15 Days
Francisco Lindor's last 15 days have him at a .914 OPS, well up from his .728 season mark. Eight homers on the year, and tonight's total-bases line is set at just 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftMIA @ NYM
At Citi Field, Nolan McLean pitches to a 4.33 ERA
McLean's home park tells a different story though — 4.33 ERA at Citi Field over 60-plus innings against 2.29 everywhere else. He's pitching at home tonight, right where the split works against him.
P 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
return_watchSEA — return listed 7/30
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/30 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
heat_checkCHC @ STL
Seiya Suzuki: 1.015 OPS in Last 15 Days
Seiya Suzuki's last 15 days have him at a 1.015 OPS, up nearly 200 points from his .839 season line. Eighteen homers on the year, and his total-bases number tonight is 4.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offKC @ MIN
Josh Bell: .545 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Cameron
Josh Bell's swing has cooled off — .545 OPS over his last 15 days against a .714 season mark. Tonight he draws a lefty in Noah Cameron, which is actually his weaker side at .693 on the year.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkNYY @ CHW
Chase Meidroth: .936 OPS in Last 15 Days
Chase Meidroth's swinging a hot bat — .936 OPS over his last 15 days against a .742 season line, with 9 homers on the year already. His total bases number tonight is 1.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
starter_formSF @ SD
Robbie Ray: 1.20 ERA over his last 3 starts
Robbie Ray's ERA over his last three starts (1.20) looks great, but his WHIP has actually climbed to 1.87 from a 1.31 season mark — he's stranding runners more than he's keeping them off base.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
regression_watchSF @ SD
Luis Arraez: .331 AVG vs .288 xBA
Luis Arraez's .331 average against a .288 expected mark is a real gap — 451 plate appearances is a full season's worth of evidence behind it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Jake Mangum: .302 AVG vs .259 xBA
Jake Mangum's .302 average is running ahead of a .259 expected mark, and his wOBA tells the same story. Results ahead of the process.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
running_gameCHC @ STL
Green light: Chicago Cubs run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 3%
The Cubs run at will, 77 steals on the season, and Ivan Herrera has caught just one of thirty runners who've tried against him. Every incentive says Chicago keeps sending them tonight.
P Chicago Cubs stole 2 bases
regression_watchCHC @ STL
Nico Hoerner: .253 AVG vs .296 xBA
Nico Hoerner's actual numbers are behind what the contact quality says they should be, a .253 average against a .296 expected mark, with a similar gap in his wOBA. Over 470 plate appearances, that's a big enough sample to trust the underlying quality of contact over the results so far.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
regression_tomorrowSTL @ TOR
Kyle Leahy: 3.55 ERA vs 5.22 xERA
Kyle Leahy's 3.55 ERA is running well ahead of his 5.22 xERA, and the contact explains why — half of what's put in play against him rates as hard-hit, with a 10.9% barrel rate. Hitters are only batting .262 against him when the quality of contact says .272 — the results have held up so far, the process says otherwise.
beneficiaryKC @ MIN
Kyle Isbel (CF) is out for KC — John Rave starts in his place tonight
Kyle Isbel's still out with that foot injury, eight days now, so John Rave gets the call in center and hits second tonight. Rave's carrying a .944 OPS against just a .222 average this season — an unusual gap between the two.
P 2-for-3, 4 TB
beneficiaryNYY @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (.867 vs LHP) replaces Austin Hays at LF tonight
Austin Hays is still out tonight — 13 days now with that calf — so Randal Grichuk gets the start in left. He's in the cleanup spot against lefty Ryan Weathers, and his .867 OPS against left-handers sits well above his .784 season line.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds
Pickup vs Rhett Lowder (5.61 xERA) — .842 OPS, bats 3rd.
return_watchTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
regression_watchSEA @ LAD
Mookie Betts: .229 AVG vs .270 xBA
Mookie Betts is the reverse story — hitting .229 against a .270 expected average, meaning the contact quality says he should be hitting quite a bit better than that.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
regression_watchSF @ SD
Luis Campusano: .286 AVG vs .246 xBA
Luis Campusano's .286 average against a .246 expected mark is a solid gap, though 107 plate appearances is still a fairly small sample to lean on hard.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchNYY @ CHW
Chase Meidroth: .275 AVG vs .233 xBA
Chase Meidroth's .275 average is running well ahead of his .233 expected average across 436 plate appearances, and the wOBA tells the same story — .329 actual against a .290 expected mark.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
regression_watchSF @ SD
Robbie Ray: 3.16 ERA vs 4.53 xERA
Robbie Ray's results are running well ahead of his process — a .228 average against that's ten points better than expected, and an ERA over a run better than his 4.53 xERA — even though his hard-hit and barrel rates are just middle-of-the-pack.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
cooling_offKC @ MIN
Jac Caglianone: .531 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bailey Ober
Jac Caglianone has cooled way down — .531 OPS over his last 15 days against a .757 season mark. He gets a right-hander tonight in Bailey Ober, which has been his stronger side all year at .785.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
starter_formNYY @ CHW
Sean Burke: 1.37 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sean Burke's last three starts have been excellent — 1.37 ERA, a 0.61 WHIP, 24 strikeouts — well ahead of the 3.19 season mark most lines are still built around.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
ballpark_shiftCHC @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.48 ERA
Andre Pallante's actually been worse at home — 4.48 ERA over 68-plus innings at Busch Stadium against 2.66 in his innings elsewhere, hitters up to .275 off him there. He's pitching at home tonight.
P 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
return_watchTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
cut_listSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.607 OPS, 0.231 AVG from the 2-hole.
regression_watchWSH @ ATL
Keibert Ruiz: .267 AVG vs .230 xBA
Keibert Ruiz is hitting above what the contact quality supports, .267 against a .230 expected average, and his wOBA tells the same story at .320 versus .270 expected. Over 239 plate appearances, that's a real gap.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
ownedCHC @ STL
Ian Happ vs Andre Pallante: .385
Ian Happ has owned Andre Pallante over his career, 5-for-13, a .385 average, and they meet again tonight. He's not running hot right now, a steady .707 OPS over his last 15 days, but this particular matchup has history behind it.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez: .329 AVG vs .290 xBA
Otto Lopez is outproducing his expected numbers too, a .329 average against .290 expected, wOBA at .367 versus .334 expected. Over 455 plate appearances, that's a good chunk of the season running hotter than the underlying contact says it should.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
return_watchBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
regression_watchTEX @ TB
Cole Winn: 6.11 ERA vs 4.95 xERA
Cole Winn's ERA sits at 6.11 against a 4.95 xERA, and it's not really bad luck on balls in play — his .266 average against is actually a touch below the .276 his contact quality would suggest. The real issue is a 1.36 WHIP and a 44% hard-hit rate — the walks and loud contact are piling up into bigger innings even with the strikeouts there at 9.2 per nine.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
closer_watchTEX @ TB
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 29 saves this season (next closest: Kevin Kelly with 4).
closer_watchCHC @ STL
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
closer_watchWSH @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 22 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ CIN
Ryan O'Hearn
Pickup vs Rhett Lowder (5.61 xERA) — .798 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ CIN
Brandon Lowe
Pickup vs Rhett Lowder (5.61 xERA) — .805 OPS, bats 2nd.
ownedWSH @ ATL
Michael Harris II vs Jake Irvin: .389
Harris has flat out owned Jake Irvin, 7 for 18 with real pop when they've met before, and he's swinging it well right now on top of that. I like him to keep that going tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchTEX @ TB
Wyatt Langford: .278 AVG vs .244 xBA
Wyatt Langford's .278 average is running ahead of his .244 expected average across 241 plate appearances, and the wOBA gap — .355 against a .309 expected mark — says the same thing.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
cut_listTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.627 OPS, 0.201 AVG from the 4-hole.
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ CIN
Nick Gonzales
Pickup vs Rhett Lowder (5.61 xERA) — .778 OPS, bats 6th.
cut_listCIN tonight
Rhett Lowder
Starts tonight for CIN — 5.62 xERA behind a 5.61 ERA.
regression_watchWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: .292 AVG vs .261 xBA
Abrams is running about thirty points hotter than his contact quality supports, and the wOBA split backs it up the same way. Good hitter, but I'd rather catch him after a quiet week than lean on him at this price.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
closer_watchBOS @ OAK
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 25 saves this season (next closest: Garrett Whitlock with 2).
fantasy_pickupsWSH @ ATL
Michael Harris II
Pickup vs Jake Irvin (5.25 xERA) — .816 OPS, bats 4th.
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Perez is hitting .214 with a .634 OPS this season and he's still written in cleanup tonight. A .634 OPS from your 4-hitter isn't production, it's a lineup-card habit — the order slot is carrying the name, not the other way around. CUT. The .634/.214 season line doesn't clear the bar for a roster spot, cleanup or not.
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/2
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
closer_watchTEX @ TB
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
cut_listSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Still hitting 6th for SEA — 0.576 OPS, 0.164 AVG from the 6-hole.
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Foster Griffin: 2.76 ERA vs 3.92 xERA
Foster Griffin's 2.76 ERA is running well under his 3.92 xERA, with a .217 average against compared to an expected .246. The contact quality isn't alarming though — 36.9% hard-hit, a 9.1% barrel rate — nothing extreme in there.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.84 xERA
Freddy Peralta's 4.99 ERA doesn't match a contact profile that's actually pretty clean — 38.2% hard-hit, a low 5.2% barrel rate. He's allowing a .264 average against an expected .235, so more balls are finding grass than the contact quality says should be happening.
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ TB
Jonathan Aranda
Pickup vs Cole Winn (4.95 xERA) — .816 OPS, bats 2nd.
heat_checkTEX @ TB
Victor Mesa Jr.: .972 OPS in Last 15 Days
Victor Mesa Jr.'s been hot — .972 OPS over his last 15 days against a .768 season mark, with 8 homers on the year. His total bases number tonight is 0.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
running_gamePIT @ CIN
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 11%
Endy Rodriguez has caught just four of 30 basestealers this season, and Cincinnati's already swiped 79 bags as a team. This is as green as a green light gets — I'd expect the Reds to run early and often.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 2 bases
cut_listWSH tonight
Jake Irvin
Starts tonight for WSH — 5.26 xERA behind a 5.23 ERA.
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
cut_listNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Dominguez is at .663 OPS, .233 average, batting 3rd tonight. Still a below-market line from a premium spot, but it's the better of the two bats here — a real edge over the .634 OPS name, and tonight's 3-hole says the lineup card trusts him more. Thin case, but a case. HOLD for now. The OPS edge and the lineup slot buy one more look before he's cut.
first_inningSF @ SD
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of SF @ SD
Both sides have been quiet early — San Diego's scored in the first inning just 3 of their last 10 games, San Francisco the same. That's 14 clean first innings between the two clubs recently, and JP Sears hasn't allowed a first-inning run all season, with hitters at .125 against him in that frame.
P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)
running_gameWSH @ ATL
Green light: Washington Nationals run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Drake Baldwin's thrown out just six of 39 basestealers this year, and Washington attempts 1.4 steals a game as a team. That's a green light matchup — I'd expect the Nationals to test him early and often tonight.
P Washington Nationals stole 2 bases
fantasy_pickupsWSH @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Pickup vs Jake Irvin (5.25 xERA) — .766 OPS, bats 2nd.
fantasy_pickupsSEA @ LAD
Bryan Woo
Streamer vs LAD — 3.53 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.14 WHIP.
running_gameTEX @ TB
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Austin Wynns has caught just 15%
Austin Wynns is catching tonight throwing out just 15% of runners this season, 3-for-20, and Tampa Bay attempts 1.3 steals a game as a team. That's about as clear a green light as you'll see.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowPHI @ BAL
Brandon Young: 3.13 ERA vs 4.11 xERA
Brandon Young's gap between his 3.13 ERA and 4.11 xERA is modest as these things go — under a full run, and the batting average against, .246 versus an expected .254, is only an 8-point difference. Hard-hit rate's up at 41.8%, but the barrel rate is a tame 5.7%.
cut_listNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Still hitting 3th for NYM — 0.668 OPS, 0.256 AVG from the 3-hole.
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
A 10-20 mark in one-run games doesn't stick around, that kind of split evens out more often than not. The Mets are probably a better team than their record shows, and I don't think the market's fully caught up to that yet.
first_inningSEA @ LAD
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Seattle's been shut out in the first inning in all of their last 10 games, and tonight's starter Roki Sasaki has been strong in his own first innings this season — a 2.50 ERA and .203 average against in that frame.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
running_gameKC @ MIN
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 13%
Ryan Jeffers has thrown out just 5 of 38 runners this season, 13%, and the Royals already have 84 steals on the year as a team. Everything about tonight points to them testing him early.
P Kansas City Royals stole 2 bases
fantasy_pickupsKC @ MIN
Kody Clemens
The .243 average is empty, but an .787 OPS out of the 5-hole says there's pop propping it up — power-over-average profile. Noah Cameron's 4.95 xERA and struggling tag make tonight a soft landing spot for that kind of bat, and the 5-hole gives him RBI chances if the lineup ahead of him gets something going. Streaming add for power/RBI formats tonight; pass if you need average help.
first_inningPIT @ CIN
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pittsburgh hasn't scored in the first inning in any of their last 10 games, but the pitcher on the mound for Cincinnati has had his own first-inning issues — Rhett Lowder's sitting on a 6.60 ERA and .303 average against in that frame this season.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
ballpark_shiftSF @ SD
At Petco Park, JP Sears pitches to a 4.50 ERA
JP Sears has actually been a bit worse at Petco Park — 4.50 ERA over two starts there against 3.50 in his other outings, hitters up to .268 off him in San Diego. Small sample at two games, but he's back there again tonight.
P 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
regression_tomorrowPIT @ CIN
Paul Skenes: 3.65 ERA vs 2.83 xERA
Paul Skenes' 3.65 ERA is actually a shade worse than his 2.83 xERA — if anything the results have shortchanged him a little. The .223 average against is just a touch above the expected .207, and the contact quality — 37.8% hard-hit, a 6.6% barrel rate — says this is a genuinely dominant arm, not one hiding risk underneath.
beneficiarySEA @ LAD
Brendan Donovan (3B) is out for SEA — Weston Wilson starts in his place tonight
Brendan Donovan's been out 13 days with a groin issue, and Weston Wilson steps in at third for Seattle, batting eighth with a .662 OPS this season. A modest lift for the lineup, nothing more.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
beneficiaryCHC @ STL
Blaze Jordan (.553 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
Jordan gets the look at third with Urias banged up, but don't mistake this for a boost — his .553 mark against righties is actually below his season number, and he's hitting eighth. This is a lineup fill-in, not an upgrade.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
beneficiaryKC @ MIN
Josh Rojas (.802 vs RHP) replaces Maikel Garcia at 3B tonight
Maikel Garcia's dealing with a hand injury as of yesterday, so Josh Rojas steps in at third and hits eighth tonight against right-hander Bailey Ober. Rojas has handled righties well this year — .802 OPS against a .668 season line.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
beneficiaryBOS @ OAK
Jarren Duran (.596 vs RHP) replaces Roman Anthony at LF tonight
Roman Anthony's been out 17 days with a finger injury, and Jarren Duran slides into left field against Mason Barnett's right-handed look. His numbers against righties (.596 OPS) are basically in line with his season number, so this reads more as extra playing time than a real platoon edge.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ TB
Victor Mesa Jr.
Pickup vs Cole Winn (4.95 xERA) — .768 OPS, bats 6th.
beneficiarySF @ SD
Ramon Laureano (LF) is out for SD — Jase Bowen starts in his place tonight
Ramon Laureano's been out 55 days with a hip issue, and Jase Bowen gets the call in left field tonight, batting ninth with just a .378 OPS this season. Another clear lineup downgrade for San Diego.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ STL
Alec Burleson
Pickup vs Javier Assad (4.66 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 3rd.
beneficiaryPIT @ CIN
Oneil Cruz (CF) is out for PIT — Jhostynxon Garcia starts in his place tonight
Oneil Cruz is out with a hand issue, so Jhostynxon Garcia gets the start in center tonight, batting ninth with just a .436 OPS on the year. This is a lineup downgrade, not an opportunity.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cut_listSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.637 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 6-hole.
running_gameKC @ MIN
Minnesota Twins like to run — Salvador Perez (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Minnesota doesn't run much to begin with, 0.9 attempts a game as a team, and Salvador Perez has actually thrown out 32% of runners this year, 10 of 31. Testing him tonight would be a real gamble.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ TB
Jonny DeLuca
Pickup vs Cole Winn (4.95 xERA) — .718 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ TB
Yandy Diaz
Pickup vs Cole Winn (4.95 xERA) — .841 OPS, bats 1st.

Graded results

Games

W
White Sox ML -110
MLB · 1-2
L
Mariners ML +124
MLB · 2-6
W
Mets ML -137
MLB · 2-4
W
Rangers +1.5 -149
MLB · 2-3
L
Royals ML +118
MLB · 3-4
W
Cubs ML -106
MLB · 4-2
W
Nationals +1.5 -145
MLB · 4-5
L
Pirates ML -121
MLB · 2-3
L
Red Sox -1.5 -122
MLB · 5-4
L
Padres ML -166
MLB · 4-1

Props

L
Alec Burleson · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Andruw Monasterio · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 1
L
Braden Montgomery · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 1
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ Athletics · Actual 4
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Dylan Crews · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 2
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Francisco Alvarez · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Jake Burger · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
JJ Bleday · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Josh Naylor · over
Mariners @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Junior Caminero · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Marcus Semien · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Matt Olson · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 3
L
Nick Loftin · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Noah Cameron · over
Royals @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Nolan McLean · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 6
L
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Sean Burke · over
Yankees @ White Sox · Actual 10
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Cubs @ Cardinals · Actual 1
L
Tommy Edman · over
Mariners @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0
W
Wyatt Langford · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Yandy Diaz · over
Rangers @ Rays · Actual 0