Sports Picks Archive — Friday, July 31, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Yankees· -163

First pitch at 2:20 on the North Side, wind crossing the outfield left to right rather than carrying anything out to Waveland, and the Yankees walk into Wrigley having just been walked off twice in a row across town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in forty-eight hours and a lineup card that's been getting shorter all month. The Cubs come home off a 5-2 trip with Bregman swinging like it's October. I'm on Chicago on the moneyline at -163, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not reaching for the bigger number. Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six turns — the high-water mark is 5 2/3, and the last one was three innings and six earned in Philadelphia. He's already been bumped from a turn and used out of the bullpen this month, which tells you what the room thinks. Left-handed bats have hit .272 with an .812 OPS and ten homers off him, and Counsell's card runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. The sinker Warren throws better than a quarter of the time gets hit at .302; Crow-Armstrong hits sinkers at .411 with a .607 slug, and he's got three homers in the last week with the best contact numbers on either roster. When Warren comes out in the fifth, New York hands it to a bullpen that threw 11 2/3 innings in three days — Cruz on back-to-back days, Chivilli at 35 pitches across two of three. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter, a 38.6 percent whiff pitch, runs straight into the left-handed Yankee bats in Rice, Grisham and Jones, and Grisham is 5-for-46 over the last two weeks. Now the part that keeps me off the run line. Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher who has been most of a run worse at Wrigley than anywhere else, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball out — Goldschmidt has nine homers off left-handed pitching and he's leading off. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; thirteen different men have saved a game for them this year. And a good piece of the Cubs' hot fortnight is batting average on soft contact — Hoerner and Ramirez are both over .420 in fifteen days without a single barrel between them. That's a club that wins 4-2, not 9-1, especially with the wind knocking things down. So I want the game, not the margin. -163 is no gift and I won't pretend otherwise, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to chase can't score.

Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six turns — the high-water mark is 5 2/3, and the last one was three innings and six earned in Philadelphia. He's already been bumped from a turn and used out of the bullpen this month, which tells you what the room thinks. Left-handed bats have hit .272 with an .812 OPS and ten homers off him, and Counsell's card runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. The sinker Warren throws better than a quarter of the time gets hit at .302; Crow-Armstrong hits sinkers at .411 with a .607 slug, and he's got three homers in the last week with the best contact numbers on either roster. When Warren comes out in the fifth, New York hands it to a bullpen that threw 11 2/3 innings in three days — Cruz on back-to-back days, Chivilli at 35 pitches across two of three. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter, a 38.6 percent whiff pitch, runs straight into the left-handed Yankee bats in Rice, Grisham and Jones, and Grisham is 5-for-46 over the last two weeks.

Now the part that keeps me off the run line. Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher who has been most of a run worse at Wrigley than anywhere else, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball out — Goldschmidt has nine homers off left-handed pitching and he's leading off. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; thirteen different men have saved a game for them this year. And a good piece of the Cubs' hot fortnight is batting average on soft contact — Hoerner and Ramirez are both over .420 in fifteen days without a single barrel between them. That's a club that wins 4-2, not 9-1, especially with the wind knocking things down. So I want the game, not the margin. -163 is no gift and I won't pretend otherwise, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to chase can't score.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -132

Clear sky over the Ohio River, 87 degrees at first pitch, and a ballpark that just got a walk-off out of a team everybody expects to be selling parts by Monday. Elly De La Cruz hit three doubles and stole two bases last night and Cincinnati still only scratched out three runs. That's the tell on this series. Now Paul Skenes walks out there against a man making his fifth start since they took bone chips out of his elbow in March. Hunter Greene still runs it up to 98 and that slider still misses bats at a rate almost nobody in this league can match. It's everything around it I'm betting against. Four starts back, 46.6 percent hard contact allowed, an extreme fly-ball tilt in the one yard in this division that punishes fly balls, and a swing-and-miss rate walking backwards every time out — 33, 29, 23, 24. Outside the twelve-strikeout gem against the Cubs, he's given up seventeen earned runs in fourteen and two-thirds innings. Skenes is the other side of that coin. The 3.65 is what's on the board; the 2.82 underneath it is what he's actually been, and opponents are putting a .262 expected wOBA on him against a Cincinnati club hitting .230 as a team. Last time out he punched out eleven and missed on 41 percent of the swings taken against him. Whatever the velocity chatter was in June, the bats stopped touching him. The reason this sits at only -132 is Pittsburgh's lineup, and that's a fair reason. Reynolds is 8 for his last 51. O'Hearn is worse. Cruz and Horwitz have been gone long enough that nobody's pricing them anymore, and this group has managed 3.2 runs a night over ten games. But Brandon Lowe is squaring everything up right now — he put one 402 feet into the right-field seats off this same club last night — Nick Gonzales is 21 for his last 57, and I don't need a crooked number, I need three. The other half of it is the seventh inning on. Cincinnati emptied Burke, Antone and Pagán all in one night to steal that opener, Santillan and Ashcraft are still on the shelf, and if Greene gives them five, Francona is reaching into a drawer he already opened. Pittsburgh's better arms mostly sat. I'll lay the short number with the better pitcher.

Hunter Greene still runs it up to 98 and that slider still misses bats at a rate almost nobody in this league can match. It's everything around it I'm betting against. Four starts back, 46.6 percent hard contact allowed, an extreme fly-ball tilt in the one yard in this division that punishes fly balls, and a swing-and-miss rate walking backwards every time out — 33, 29, 23, 24. Outside the twelve-strikeout gem against the Cubs, he's given up seventeen earned runs in fourteen and two-thirds innings. Skenes is the other side of that coin. The 3.65 is what's on the board; the 2.82 underneath it is what he's actually been, and opponents are putting a .262 expected wOBA on him against a Cincinnati club hitting .230 as a team. Last time out he punched out eleven and missed on 41 percent of the swings taken against him. Whatever the velocity chatter was in June, the bats stopped touching him.

The reason this sits at only -132 is Pittsburgh's lineup, and that's a fair reason. Reynolds is 8 for his last 51. O'Hearn is worse. Cruz and Horwitz have been gone long enough that nobody's pricing them anymore, and this group has managed 3.2 runs a night over ten games. But Brandon Lowe is squaring everything up right now — he put one 402 feet into the right-field seats off this same club last night — Nick Gonzales is 21 for his last 57, and I don't need a crooked number, I need three. The other half of it is the seventh inning on. Cincinnati emptied Burke, Antone and Pagán all in one night to steal that opener, Santillan and Ashcraft are still on the shelf, and if Greene gives them five, Francona is reaching into a drawer he already opened. Pittsburgh's better arms mostly sat. I'll lay the short number with the better pitcher.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· -117

Friday night at Camden Yards, 85 degrees and clear, deadline day, and two clubs walking into this series from opposite ends of the same bad summer — Baltimore off the largest comeback this franchise has authored in seventeen years, Philadelphia off a sweep in Miami that dropped them to two wins in ten. All morning the board sat at Baltimore -114 with no Phillies starter posted. Then Philadelphia recalled Andrew Painter from Lehigh Valley and optioned Brian Keller, and the number barely twitched. That's the whole ballgame for me. Painter has premium stuff and no idea where the barrel is going. Before the Phillies sent him down in mid-June he made three starts and got 3⅓, 4⅔ and 2 innings out of them — ten innings, sixteen earned runs, six home runs. The fastball reads 96.5 and hitters are batting .404 against it with a 15 percent whiff rate, which is what happens when velocity arrives on a flat plane with no deception behind it. Left-handed bats are hitting .325 with nine homers off him in 169 at-bats, and Baltimore's card tonight runs Beavers, Henderson, Holliday and Cowser from that side with Taveras switching over. Brandon Young is the opposite animal — 3.13 across seventeen starts, a slider generating a 50 percent whiff rate, and his last two times out he gave up one run in 7 innings in Houston and one run in 6⅓ against Atlanta. Six weeks in Triple-A can fix a young arm, and Painter is talented enough that it might have. That's a hope, not a projection, and I'm not paying for hope at even money. The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Philadelphia's bullpen is fully rested after Thursday's off day — nine and a third innings across three games, Duran untouched since the 27th — and Mattingly will have the quickest hook in the league with his club on a skid. Baltimore's own offense is nothing to admire, Henderson at .176 and Ward at .196 over two weeks, and this team is 10-17 in one-run games. But the Phillies lineup that's supposed to punish a bad start has scored 4.2 a game over this 2-8 stretch, Harper is chasing 40 percent of what he sees, and Marsh is 5-for-43. The gap between these two starters is the largest single edge on the board tonight and the market priced it at three cents. I'm taking the Orioles on the moneyline.

Painter has premium stuff and no idea where the barrel is going. Before the Phillies sent him down in mid-June he made three starts and got 3⅓, 4⅔ and 2 innings out of them — ten innings, sixteen earned runs, six home runs. The fastball reads 96.5 and hitters are batting .404 against it with a 15 percent whiff rate, which is what happens when velocity arrives on a flat plane with no deception behind it. Left-handed bats are hitting .325 with nine homers off him in 169 at-bats, and Baltimore's card tonight runs Beavers, Henderson, Holliday and Cowser from that side with Taveras switching over. Brandon Young is the opposite animal — 3.13 across seventeen starts, a slider generating a 50 percent whiff rate, and his last two times out he gave up one run in 7 innings in Houston and one run in 6⅓ against Atlanta. Six weeks in Triple-A can fix a young arm, and Painter is talented enough that it might have. That's a hope, not a projection, and I'm not paying for hope at even money.

The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Philadelphia's bullpen is fully rested after Thursday's off day — nine and a third innings across three games, Duran untouched since the 27th — and Mattingly will have the quickest hook in the league with his club on a skid. Baltimore's own offense is nothing to admire, Henderson at .176 and Ward at .196 over two weeks, and this team is 10-17 in one-run games. But the Phillies lineup that's supposed to punish a bad start has scored 4.2 a game over this 2-8 stretch, Harper is chasing 40 percent of what he sees, and Marsh is 5-for-43. The gap between these two starters is the largest single edge on the board tonight and the market priced it at three cents. I'm taking the Orioles on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -193

Deadline day at Rogers Centre, first pitch 7:07, and both dugouts are half-listening to their phones. Two clubs going nowhere — Toronto sitting last in the East at 50-59, St. Louis having dropped seven of ten while openly shopping arms — but the least even thing on tonight's board is the pitching matchup. Dylan Cease against Kyle Leahy. This game opened at -174 on the Blue Jays this morning and sits -193 now, so nobody in the market is hiding from it either. Leahy's line reads like an ace right now: four earned runs total across his last six starts, thirty-one innings, six straight outings of two or fewer. What's underneath it doesn't match. Half the balls in play against him are hit hard, his four-seamer is getting hit at .345, and left-handed bats have slugged him for a .309 average with seven homers. Toronto's card runs Lukes, Varsho, Sánchez and Giménez from that side — none of them thumpers, but that's four looks a night at a fastball that keeps getting squared up, in a building with the wind out to center. He's been outrunning his own contact for six weeks, and that's a hard thing to keep doing. The other half of it is simpler: St. Louis has scored three runs a game over the last ten days and now has to solve a slider that misses bats over forty percent of the time. Walker's 4 for his last 28, Wetherholt 4 for 25, Nootbaar 3 for 19. Burleson is the one bat in the lineup swinging well and sitting in the split he wants. The part that decides it is the seventh inning. Stanek, Soriano, O'Brien and Gastelum all worked Wednesday and Thursday for the Cardinals — Soriano's thrown fifty-one pitches in two days — and this is night one of a six-game trip on zero rest. Leahy carries an innings cap and hasn't been past 6.1 all summer, so St. Louis needs three innings tonight from a pen that's already been drained. Toronto had yesterday off and used two relievers in its last game, with Varland at a 0.98 ERA and a manager who'll run him two innings without blinking. That's a real late-game gap in a low-scoring game, and I don't need Guerrero's hamstring to resolve for it to hold. The price is full — the move already happened and there's no discount left. I'm paying it.

Leahy's line reads like an ace right now: four earned runs total across his last six starts, thirty-one innings, six straight outings of two or fewer. What's underneath it doesn't match. Half the balls in play against him are hit hard, his four-seamer is getting hit at .345, and left-handed bats have slugged him for a .309 average with seven homers. Toronto's card runs Lukes, Varsho, Sánchez and Giménez from that side — none of them thumpers, but that's four looks a night at a fastball that keeps getting squared up, in a building with the wind out to center. He's been outrunning his own contact for six weeks, and that's a hard thing to keep doing. The other half of it is simpler: St. Louis has scored three runs a game over the last ten days and now has to solve a slider that misses bats over forty percent of the time. Walker's 4 for his last 28, Wetherholt 4 for 25, Nootbaar 3 for 19. Burleson is the one bat in the lineup swinging well and sitting in the split he wants.

The part that decides it is the seventh inning. Stanek, Soriano, O'Brien and Gastelum all worked Wednesday and Thursday for the Cardinals — Soriano's thrown fifty-one pitches in two days — and this is night one of a six-game trip on zero rest. Leahy carries an innings cap and hasn't been past 6.1 all summer, so St. Louis needs three innings tonight from a pen that's already been drained. Toronto had yesterday off and used two relievers in its last game, with Varland at a 0.98 ERA and a manager who'll run him two innings without blinking. That's a real late-game gap in a low-scoring game, and I don't need Guerrero's hamstring to resolve for it to hold. The price is full — the move already happened and there's no discount left. I'm paying it.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Guardians· +120

Deadline day in Cleveland, 7:10 at Progressive, and the flags are pointing straight in from center. The Guardians come home off a road trip that nearly buried them — 1-6 through Tampa and into Cincinnati with three shutouts in the middle of it — and salvaged the whole thing with an Ohio Cup rubber match on Wednesday. Arizona rolls in having won two straight in Pittsburgh, 6-4 over the last ten, and riding a lineup that's been putting up crooked numbers. The market took one look at the starting pitchers, made Cleveland a solid chalk, and then pushed the number further their way as the morning went on. I'm going the other direction. Mitch Bratt has a 6.32 and a WHIP near two, and Tanner Bibee is the established arm — I'm not pretending otherwise. But look at what actually beats Bratt: the ball leaving the yard. Four home runs in fifteen and two-thirds, a heavy flyball tilt, barrels north of nine percent. Tonight he draws a Cleveland club that hits under a homer a game, gets its damage on the ground and on the bases, and has to play in a wind knocking everything down in center. The Guardians' path to runs is stringing knocks together with men on, and that is precisely the thing this offense cannot do — .230 as a team, 3.6 runs a night over two weeks, Ramírez hitting .200 with runners in scoring position, Hedges .154. Five of the nine on tonight's card are stuck: Ángel Martínez hasn't had a hit in fifteen at-bats, David Fry in thirteen, Hoskins is 3-for-23. And Bibee isn't the wall his ERA implies. Three of his five pitches sit above a .350 expected wOBA, he's surrendering forty percent hard contact, and the underlying number says closer to four and a half. Carroll has already gotten to him — three hits in six career tries. Arizona is the better offense right now and it isn't close: 5.8 runs a game over the last two weeks against Cleveland's 3.6. Carroll is averaging 95-plus off the bat with four barrels in his last two dozen batted balls and the average simply hasn't caught up. Moreno is at .340 with thirteen driven in over fifteen days. Kepler, Waldschmidt and Del Castillo are all swinging it. And the thing that was actively costing this team games got fixed two days ago — Sewald is out of the ninth, and Lovullo is running matchups back there with García, Morillo, Loaisiga and Clarke, every one of them carrying an ERA in the twos. Both pens had yesterday off, so nobody's running on fumes. I'm being paid plus money on the club playing the better baseball, with the hotter bats, against a beatable starter, on a night when the wind takes the opposing rookie's one fatal flaw off the table. Give me the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

Mitch Bratt has a 6.32 and a WHIP near two, and Tanner Bibee is the established arm — I'm not pretending otherwise. But look at what actually beats Bratt: the ball leaving the yard. Four home runs in fifteen and two-thirds, a heavy flyball tilt, barrels north of nine percent. Tonight he draws a Cleveland club that hits under a homer a game, gets its damage on the ground and on the bases, and has to play in a wind knocking everything down in center. The Guardians' path to runs is stringing knocks together with men on, and that is precisely the thing this offense cannot do — .230 as a team, 3.6 runs a night over two weeks, Ramírez hitting .200 with runners in scoring position, Hedges .154. Five of the nine on tonight's card are stuck: Ángel Martínez hasn't had a hit in fifteen at-bats, David Fry in thirteen, Hoskins is 3-for-23. And Bibee isn't the wall his ERA implies. Three of his five pitches sit above a .350 expected wOBA, he's surrendering forty percent hard contact, and the underlying number says closer to four and a half. Carroll has already gotten to him — three hits in six career tries.

Arizona is the better offense right now and it isn't close: 5.8 runs a game over the last two weeks against Cleveland's 3.6. Carroll is averaging 95-plus off the bat with four barrels in his last two dozen batted balls and the average simply hasn't caught up. Moreno is at .340 with thirteen driven in over fifteen days. Kepler, Waldschmidt and Del Castillo are all swinging it. And the thing that was actively costing this team games got fixed two days ago — Sewald is out of the ninth, and Lovullo is running matchups back there with García, Morillo, Loaisiga and Clarke, every one of them carrying an ERA in the twos. Both pens had yesterday off, so nobody's running on fumes. I'm being paid plus money on the club playing the better baseball, with the hotter bats, against a beatable starter, on a night when the wind takes the opposing rookie's one fatal flaw off the table. Give me the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs White Sox· -142

Deadline day at the Trop, first place in both dugouts, and a dome that's been swallowing baseballs whole for a month. Nick Martinez against Erick Fedde at 7:10, and the number didn't sit still — Tampa opened the morning at -136 and got bet up to -142 by the time the cards posted. Two clubs that have no business being where they are, both of them there anyway. This one gets decided in the sixth inning, not the first. Chicago played twelve innings Wednesday and eleven innings Thursday — two walk-offs, one day game, then a flight to Florida. Murphy and Hudson worked both of those nights. Hicks went two of the last three. Newcomb, Richards, Taylor, Domínguez all burned. That's fourteen and two-thirds relief innings in three days out of eight arms, and now they hand the ball to a starter who's gone 4.1, 4.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0 and 5.0 in his last six turns and coughed up three home runs in four and a third against Houston last week. Fedde is a five-inning pitcher on his best night and this is not shaping up as his best night. Martinez, meanwhile, has gone six or a whisker under in every one of his last six and surrendered eight earned runs across the whole stretch. One dugout needs three innings from its bullpen tonight. The other needs five, from a group that's been standing up three days running. The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Martinez doesn't strike anybody out — a shade over five per nine — and the run prevention has outrun what the contact underneath it says it should be. Tampa's bats are in a genuine ditch too, 2.2 runs a game over the last five, Díaz and Aranda both sitting under .200 across two weeks. That's exactly why this is -142 and not -170. But the Rays are 40-16 in this building, they took all three from Chicago in April and put up eight, eight and five doing it, and the ballpark itself is on the side of the guy who fills the zone with a changeup nobody squares. Give me the club that has to cover three innings over the club that has to cover five, on tired legs, on night one of a road trip. Tampa Bay, moneyline.

This one gets decided in the sixth inning, not the first. Chicago played twelve innings Wednesday and eleven innings Thursday — two walk-offs, one day game, then a flight to Florida. Murphy and Hudson worked both of those nights. Hicks went two of the last three. Newcomb, Richards, Taylor, Domínguez all burned. That's fourteen and two-thirds relief innings in three days out of eight arms, and now they hand the ball to a starter who's gone 4.1, 4.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0 and 5.0 in his last six turns and coughed up three home runs in four and a third against Houston last week. Fedde is a five-inning pitcher on his best night and this is not shaping up as his best night. Martinez, meanwhile, has gone six or a whisker under in every one of his last six and surrendered eight earned runs across the whole stretch. One dugout needs three innings from its bullpen tonight. The other needs five, from a group that's been standing up three days running.

The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Martinez doesn't strike anybody out — a shade over five per nine — and the run prevention has outrun what the contact underneath it says it should be. Tampa's bats are in a genuine ditch too, 2.2 runs a game over the last five, Díaz and Aranda both sitting under .200 across two weeks. That's exactly why this is -142 and not -170. But the Rays are 40-16 in this building, they took all three from Chicago in April and put up eight, eight and five doing it, and the ballpark itself is on the side of the guy who fills the zone with a changeup nobody squares. Give me the club that has to cover three innings over the club that has to cover five, on tired legs, on night one of a road trip. Tampa Bay, moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· +100

Deadline Friday at Citi Field, and the Mets changed pitchers before anybody threw a warmup pitch. Freddy Peralta was supposed to have this game. Instead he's somewhere waiting on a phone to ring, and Kodai Senga is walking out to a mound he hasn't solved all season. That's the whole game right there. Everything else is decoration. Senga hasn't started a big league game since June 23. Seven starts this year, the longest of them 5 2/3, most of them finished before the fifth, and at this ballpark he's been meaningfully worse than he's been anywhere else. I don't think he's cooked — the forkball still misses bats at a rate most starters would trade a year of salary for — but a man coming back off a back problem with five weeks of rust and no feel for the zone is a three-inning proposition on a good night. Which means New York needs six innings out of a bullpen that woke up this morning one arm lighter after the Minter deal, put Cionel Pérez on the shelf with a forearm strain, and has already run Devin Williams out there two nights running. They're taping this one together with Syracuse call-ups on a day the front office is trying to sell everything that isn't bolted down. Miami isn't humming, and I'm not pretending otherwise. The bats have gone quiet for two weeks, and Janson Junk has a genuine problem with left-handed hitters that this lineup — Ewing, Benge, Young, Baty, plus Lindor and Polanco turning around — is built to go after. That's why this isn't a big number for me. But Junk gives you five, there's a clean set of arms behind him, and he's throwing in front of a dozen scouts with his next address on the line. The market moved eight cents on a Peralta-to-Senga swap. That's not enough. At even money I'll take the club that knows who's pitching the middle innings.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· +103

Friday night at Truist, deadline pressure sitting on both dugouts, and a series that opened with Atlanta digging out of a three-run hole to steal one late. The board calls it a coin flip — Washington +103, Atlanta -124, barely a tick off where it woke up this morning. A coin flip is exactly the price where you find out whether the market is respecting the teams or the starting pitchers, and tonight those two things point in opposite directions. Start with the arms, because that's the whole game. Foster Griffin has gone seven or more in four of his last six and hasn't been pulled before five since June, and he's a left-hander walking into a lineup that keeps its best bats on that side — Baldwin, Olson and Harris stacked right through the middle. Lefties are hitting .151 against him with a .509 OPS. Bryce Elder is going the other way. Eleven home runs allowed across his last six starts, four innings in three of them, and a June he's still answering for. His leak is against right-handed hitting, .298 with an .814 OPS, and Washington's right-handed side is where the barrels are right now — Crews, House and Young are all squaring it up, and the wind is carrying toward left field in 89-degree air. This is a Nationals club scoring 6.5 a game over the last two weeks that just put three balls over the fence in this ballpark last night. The part that seals it is what happens after the starters. Walt Weiss said it himself — his rotation averages five innings and he'll go get a guy in the fifth if he has to. He got Lee, Young, Mederos and Iglesias up last night, most of them for the second straight day. If Elder gives him four, Atlanta is asking tired arms for five outs more than they want. Washington's bullpen is the soft spot in this matchup, no argument, and their defense gives away outs nobody else does — but Griffin is the reason that pen stays seated. I'll grant the counter: he's outrun his contact all year and there's a correction coming eventually. I'm not paying a premium to find out if it lands tonight. Even money for the deeper starter, the better platoon matchup, and a team that's 32-21 away from home is the bet.

Start with the arms, because that's the whole game. Foster Griffin has gone seven or more in four of his last six and hasn't been pulled before five since June, and he's a left-hander walking into a lineup that keeps its best bats on that side — Baldwin, Olson and Harris stacked right through the middle. Lefties are hitting .151 against him with a .509 OPS. Bryce Elder is going the other way. Eleven home runs allowed across his last six starts, four innings in three of them, and a June he's still answering for. His leak is against right-handed hitting, .298 with an .814 OPS, and Washington's right-handed side is where the barrels are right now — Crews, House and Young are all squaring it up, and the wind is carrying toward left field in 89-degree air. This is a Nationals club scoring 6.5 a game over the last two weeks that just put three balls over the fence in this ballpark last night.

The part that seals it is what happens after the starters. Walt Weiss said it himself — his rotation averages five innings and he'll go get a guy in the fifth if he has to. He got Lee, Young, Mederos and Iglesias up last night, most of them for the second straight day. If Elder gives him four, Atlanta is asking tired arms for five outs more than they want. Washington's bullpen is the soft spot in this matchup, no argument, and their defense gives away outs nobody else does — but Griffin is the reason that pen stays seated. I'll grant the counter: he's outrun his contact all year and there's a correction coming eventually. I'm not paying a premium to find out if it lands tonight. Even money for the deeper starter, the better platoon matchup, and a team that's 32-21 away from home is the bet.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rangers· -131

Last look these two get at each other this season, and it comes on deadline day with first place in the West sitting half a game apart. Houston walks in having won eight of nine, back to .500 from eleven under, playing like a team that decided in July it wasn't done. Texas walks in off two straight in Tampa where they put up two runs, then none, then two. I'm laying the price with the Astros at -131. Eovaldi is the reason this number isn't bigger, and he's also the reason I'm on Houston. No room in baseball has seen more of him than this one, and the two, four and five hitters tonight have taken him deep eleven times between them — Altuve seven in fifty-eight at-bats, Alvarez two in twenty, Walker two in fourteen. His four-seamer is a .397 pitch this year, which is why he's down to throwing it once every eight offerings; the splitter and the curve are what's holding the ERA together, and when he's had to come into the zone with something hard lately it's left the building — three homers in Atlanta, two more against Detroit. Now stage that in a park with a 315-foot left field line, a closed roof and dead air, against a lineup that pulls right-handed. The other side of it: Texas sends a bottom third of Lopez and Wynns up against a 96-mph fastball that's held hitters under a .215 expected wOBA, with Seager hitting third on his first night back after a month away from live pitching and Jung still on the shelf. That offense has scored 3.4 a game on this trip. The part I like most is the last three innings. Texas is on day four of a six-game road trip with no off day, ran seven arms out in three days, just cut loose the arm that covered three innings for them yesterday, and lost Junis this week on top of Garcia, Beeks and Martin already being gone. Houston sat home yesterday with Hader coming off a four-pitch outing. The fair counter is Brown — he's walked five and six in starts this month and he's only got forty-seven innings on the year, so Espada is going to that bullpen early whether the game says to or not. I'll take that trade every time: the club with the fresher back end, the hotter bats and the ballpark, at home, needing one win to own the tiebreaker in a race decided by half a game. -131 is a fair number here, not a bargain, and I'm fine paying it.

Eovaldi is the reason this number isn't bigger, and he's also the reason I'm on Houston. No room in baseball has seen more of him than this one, and the two, four and five hitters tonight have taken him deep eleven times between them — Altuve seven in fifty-eight at-bats, Alvarez two in twenty, Walker two in fourteen. His four-seamer is a .397 pitch this year, which is why he's down to throwing it once every eight offerings; the splitter and the curve are what's holding the ERA together, and when he's had to come into the zone with something hard lately it's left the building — three homers in Atlanta, two more against Detroit. Now stage that in a park with a 315-foot left field line, a closed roof and dead air, against a lineup that pulls right-handed. The other side of it: Texas sends a bottom third of Lopez and Wynns up against a 96-mph fastball that's held hitters under a .215 expected wOBA, with Seager hitting third on his first night back after a month away from live pitching and Jung still on the shelf. That offense has scored 3.4 a game on this trip.

The part I like most is the last three innings. Texas is on day four of a six-game road trip with no off day, ran seven arms out in three days, just cut loose the arm that covered three innings for them yesterday, and lost Junis this week on top of Garcia, Beeks and Martin already being gone. Houston sat home yesterday with Hader coming off a four-pitch outing. The fair counter is Brown — he's walked five and six in starts this month and he's only got forty-seven innings on the year, so Espada is going to that bullpen early whether the game says to or not. I'll take that trade every time: the club with the fresher back end, the hotter bats and the ballpark, at home, needing one win to own the tiebreaker in a race decided by half a game. -131 is a fair number here, not a bargain, and I'm fine paying it.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rockies· -114

Deadline eve at 5,280 feet, and the Rockies may be trotting out a starter who won't be wearing purple by Monday. Two clubs with nothing left to play for, a ballpark that doesn't care about that, and a market that's crept from pick'em this morning to Kansas City by a nose. I'm on the Royals moneyline at -114. Start with the guy on the mound for Colorado. Tomoyuki Sugano's record says 10-4 and his ERA says 4.69, but everything underneath it is screaming — a .400 expected wOBA against, a 14.2 percent barrel rate, 44.9 percent hard contact. He's given up two home runs in each of his last three turns and he's surrendering a .929 OPS with 14 homers to left-handed hitters. Kansas City is sending five lefties and two switch-hitters at him tonight. That's seven of nine batting from the left side against a man whose sinker generates a 2.9 percent whiff rate and gets hit at .342, and whose four-seamer sits at .317. His one genuine weapon is the splitter — 31.6 percent whiffs, chased more than half the time — and the splitter is exactly the pitch that shows up to Coors and forgets how to finish. Take away the dive and he's a 92 mph strike-thrower asking a lineup to miss. They haven't been missing: Jensen, Caglianone, Massey and Perez have all averaged over 90 mph off the bat the last two weeks and hit .205 to .229 for their trouble, because they've been doing it in Detroit and Minneapolis. Those same swings land differently here. The other half is Michael Wacha, who has gone six-plus in seven of his last eight and owns the pitch that specifically handcuffs Colorado's table-setters — the changeup, .252 expected wOBA, and both Moniak (.081 xwOBA against it) and McCarthy (.215) have no answer for it. He holds lefties to a .672 OPS, keeps the barrel rate at 6.6, and every inning he eats is an inning the Royals don't have to hand to Erceg or Lange, which after Thursday night is worth real money. I know the argument on the other side: Kansas City is 20-37 on the road, this is game eight of a ten-game trip, and the lineup is missing Witt and Pasquantino with Velazquez and Rave filling in behind it. That's a fair reservation and it's the reason this is priced at a coin flip instead of a favorite. But it's also old news that's been in the number for weeks, while the team on the other side has lost 12 of 16, owns the worst record in the sport, and is running out a rental starter with a seven-handle expected ERA in front of a bullpen carrying a 5.54 team mark. At a shade over even money I'll take the better pitcher and the platoon edge and live with the altitude.

Start with the guy on the mound for Colorado. Tomoyuki Sugano's record says 10-4 and his ERA says 4.69, but everything underneath it is screaming — a .400 expected wOBA against, a 14.2 percent barrel rate, 44.9 percent hard contact. He's given up two home runs in each of his last three turns and he's surrendering a .929 OPS with 14 homers to left-handed hitters. Kansas City is sending five lefties and two switch-hitters at him tonight. That's seven of nine batting from the left side against a man whose sinker generates a 2.9 percent whiff rate and gets hit at .342, and whose four-seamer sits at .317. His one genuine weapon is the splitter — 31.6 percent whiffs, chased more than half the time — and the splitter is exactly the pitch that shows up to Coors and forgets how to finish. Take away the dive and he's a 92 mph strike-thrower asking a lineup to miss. They haven't been missing: Jensen, Caglianone, Massey and Perez have all averaged over 90 mph off the bat the last two weeks and hit .205 to .229 for their trouble, because they've been doing it in Detroit and Minneapolis. Those same swings land differently here.

The other half is Michael Wacha, who has gone six-plus in seven of his last eight and owns the pitch that specifically handcuffs Colorado's table-setters — the changeup, .252 expected wOBA, and both Moniak (.081 xwOBA against it) and McCarthy (.215) have no answer for it. He holds lefties to a .672 OPS, keeps the barrel rate at 6.6, and every inning he eats is an inning the Royals don't have to hand to Erceg or Lange, which after Thursday night is worth real money. I know the argument on the other side: Kansas City is 20-37 on the road, this is game eight of a ten-game trip, and the lineup is missing Witt and Pasquantino with Velazquez and Rave filling in behind it. That's a fair reservation and it's the reason this is priced at a coin flip instead of a favorite. But it's also old news that's been in the number for weeks, while the team on the other side has lost 12 of 16, owns the worst record in the sport, and is running out a rental starter with a seven-handle expected ERA in front of a bullpen carrying a 5.54 team mark. At a shade over even money I'll take the better pitcher and the platoon edge and live with the altitude.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -175

Deadline Friday in Anaheim, first pitch under a warm sky with the wind pushing out toward center. First place in the National League Central flies in to face a club sitting thirteen back and fifteenth in the seed order, and the market has spent the whole day nudging in one direction — Milwaukee opened around -156 this morning and I'm buying at -175. That's the part I don't love, and I want to be honest about it up front: I'm paying the toll on a number that already moved. I'm paying it because of Ryan Johnson. He's got three pitches I respect — the cutter, the splitter, the sweeper all miss bats and hold hitters down. And then there's the sinker, which he throws better than a quarter of the time at 92 with essentially no swing-and-miss, and hitters are batting over .400 on it. That's not a bad-luck number, that's a pitch getting squared up. The Brewers roll out Turang, Yelich, Bauers, Mitchell, Hamilton and a switch-hitter in Lara — left-handed bat after left-handed bat against a right-hander who's been giving lefties an .880 OPS with six balls over the fence in under a hundred at-bats. Turang and Bauers in particular do their damage on exactly that pitch. Johnson has also averaged barely five innings a start, which hands the middle of this game to a bullpen where Suter, Yates and Farris all worked the last two times this team took the field, and Farris is the arm that coughed up the sixth inning Wednesday. The other half is the Angels needing to score, and they haven't. Under three runs a game over the last two weeks, Trout hitting .205 in his own ballpark, Neto and Soler and Guzman all scuffling, and now they see a left-hander in Drohan who's been getting into the sixth inning most nights with a fastball that misses bats and a slider that misses more. Anaheim stacks righties against him, which is the right side of that matchup and where the home runs he allows come from — that's their lane, and with the wind out it's live. It's not nothing. But the Angels need Johnson to give them the Baltimore night he had in June, and they need a tired pen to hold. Milwaukee just needs to be the better team, which they've been all year and on the road especially. I'll take the favorite and eat the price.

I'm paying it because of Ryan Johnson. He's got three pitches I respect — the cutter, the splitter, the sweeper all miss bats and hold hitters down. And then there's the sinker, which he throws better than a quarter of the time at 92 with essentially no swing-and-miss, and hitters are batting over .400 on it. That's not a bad-luck number, that's a pitch getting squared up. The Brewers roll out Turang, Yelich, Bauers, Mitchell, Hamilton and a switch-hitter in Lara — left-handed bat after left-handed bat against a right-hander who's been giving lefties an .880 OPS with six balls over the fence in under a hundred at-bats. Turang and Bauers in particular do their damage on exactly that pitch. Johnson has also averaged barely five innings a start, which hands the middle of this game to a bullpen where Suter, Yates and Farris all worked the last two times this team took the field, and Farris is the arm that coughed up the sixth inning Wednesday.

The other half is the Angels needing to score, and they haven't. Under three runs a game over the last two weeks, Trout hitting .205 in his own ballpark, Neto and Soler and Guzman all scuffling, and now they see a left-hander in Drohan who's been getting into the sixth inning most nights with a fastball that misses bats and a slider that misses more. Anaheim stacks righties against him, which is the right side of that matchup and where the home runs he allows come from — that's their lane, and with the wind out it's live. It's not nothing. But the Angels need Johnson to give them the Baltimore night he had in June, and they need a tired pen to hold. Milwaukee just needs to be the better team, which they've been all year and on the road especially. I'll take the favorite and eat the price.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -143

Hundred degrees in West Sacramento, wind pushing out toward center, and a Tigers club that spent the morning taking its own rotation apart. Casey Mize got scratched — not hurt, just wrapped in bubble wrap three days from the deadline — Skubal's name is on every wire in the country, and Detroit's answer tonight is Tyler Holton for a batter or two and then a parade. Here's the part that stopped me: the number went the wrong direction. Detroit was -130 at five this morning. After the scratch went public, it got bet to -143. When a team loses its starter and the market pushes harder toward that team anyway, somebody's looking past the headline. What they're looking at is Jeffrey Springs. This isn't Mize versus Springs anymore, it's Detroit's relief corps versus Springs and whatever Oakland has left behind him — and those are not equivalent problems. Detroit's staff runs a 3.63 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and that pen had all of yesterday off; nobody's thrown a pitch since Wednesday afternoon. Springs is carrying a 6.23, he lasted four outs his last time out before his hip started talking to him, and right-handed hitters have taken him for 21 home runs and an .890 OPS. Detroit writes six righties into the order tonight. He saw this same group on July 8 and gave up six earned in 4.1. If he's short again, the ball goes to a bullpen that has worked three straight days, coughed up the lead in the eighth last night, and lost Mark Leiter for the year. Kotsay said it himself after that game — they're still trying to figure out the pieces. Detroit took all three in July by 6-2, 6-1, 4-1. Over the last two weeks the Tigers are scoring 5.1 and allowing 4.0; the A's are 4.5 and 6.2. And the usual home-dog cushion isn't there — this club is 21-33 at Sutter Health Park, worse at home than on the road. Now the honest part: a bullpen game in a hot park with the wind out is a coin that can land ugly, Detroit is 21-31 away from Comerica, and their own lineup is held together with tape — Vierling to the injured list this morning, Carpenter down, a center fielder who got the call from Toledo today. I'd rather have had this at -130 than chase it to -143. But the run-prevention gap on both ends of the game is wide enough that I'll pay the freight.

What they're looking at is Jeffrey Springs. This isn't Mize versus Springs anymore, it's Detroit's relief corps versus Springs and whatever Oakland has left behind him — and those are not equivalent problems. Detroit's staff runs a 3.63 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, and that pen had all of yesterday off; nobody's thrown a pitch since Wednesday afternoon. Springs is carrying a 6.23, he lasted four outs his last time out before his hip started talking to him, and right-handed hitters have taken him for 21 home runs and an .890 OPS. Detroit writes six righties into the order tonight. He saw this same group on July 8 and gave up six earned in 4.1. If he's short again, the ball goes to a bullpen that has worked three straight days, coughed up the lead in the eighth last night, and lost Mark Leiter for the year. Kotsay said it himself after that game — they're still trying to figure out the pieces.

Detroit took all three in July by 6-2, 6-1, 4-1. Over the last two weeks the Tigers are scoring 5.1 and allowing 4.0; the A's are 4.5 and 6.2. And the usual home-dog cushion isn't there — this club is 21-33 at Sutter Health Park, worse at home than on the road. Now the honest part: a bullpen game in a hot park with the wind out is a coin that can land ugly, Detroit is 21-31 away from Comerica, and their own lineup is held together with tape — Vierling to the injured list this morning, Carpenter down, a center fielder who got the call from Toledo today. I'd rather have had this at -130 than chase it to -143. But the run-prevention gap on both ends of the game is wide enough that I'll pay the freight.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -156

Deadline day in San Diego, first pitch just before ten Eastern, and these two clubs walked into Petco tonight looking at completely different calendars. San Francisco got Robbie Ray's goodbye letter in the opener — six innings, one run, a 4-1 win that played more like an audition tape for 29 other front offices than a statement about this series. San Diego woke up a game further from the wild card with a roster that might look different by Monday. Tonight the Giants hand the ball to Carson Whisenhunt, a rookie lefty three big-league starts into his career, and I keep landing in the same place when I look at how he gets his outs. The changeup is a real pitch — hitters are missing on nearly half their swings against it. Everything else is a problem. The four-seam sits 92.8 and hitters are batting .400 off it. Right-handed bats have hit .277 with an .844 OPS and three home runs against him in 47 at-bats; lefties have almost nothing off him, but he's faced twelve of them total. San Diego is sending seven right-handed hitters at him, and the top of that order is locked in — Tatis, Rengifo, Machado, France and Merrill have all been north of .875 over the last two weeks, and this club has scored 5.8 a game in that stretch against a season number of 4.2. Whisenhunt hasn't gotten past 5.2 innings yet. When he's out, San Francisco goes to a pen that's used Caleb Kilian back-to-back nights and carries Ryan Walker at 7.52. The honest argument against me is the shape of San Diego's night. Bradgley Rodriguez is a reliever wearing a starter's label — 98 on the fastball, a changeup hitters have managed .133 against, but he's worked one inning at a time all season. That means eight innings from a staff that just spent Randy Vásquez for 65 pitches and JP Sears for 3.2 in last night's loss, with Wandy Peralta up two days running. That's the crack here and I'm not pretending it isn't. What keeps me on San Diego anyway: Morejon, Estrada, Matsui and Mason Miller are all rested, Petco takes the ball out of the air, and the Giants arrive without Daniel Susac, the bat that did all the damage in the opener. Behind Arraez and Devers this lineup is Eldridge at .184 over fifteen days, Adames at .208, McCray at .188. I'll lay it — Padres moneyline at -156, ten cents worse than it opened this morning, which is exactly why this is a firm play and not a big one.

Tonight the Giants hand the ball to Carson Whisenhunt, a rookie lefty three big-league starts into his career, and I keep landing in the same place when I look at how he gets his outs. The changeup is a real pitch — hitters are missing on nearly half their swings against it. Everything else is a problem. The four-seam sits 92.8 and hitters are batting .400 off it. Right-handed bats have hit .277 with an .844 OPS and three home runs against him in 47 at-bats; lefties have almost nothing off him, but he's faced twelve of them total. San Diego is sending seven right-handed hitters at him, and the top of that order is locked in — Tatis, Rengifo, Machado, France and Merrill have all been north of .875 over the last two weeks, and this club has scored 5.8 a game in that stretch against a season number of 4.2. Whisenhunt hasn't gotten past 5.2 innings yet. When he's out, San Francisco goes to a pen that's used Caleb Kilian back-to-back nights and carries Ryan Walker at 7.52.

The honest argument against me is the shape of San Diego's night. Bradgley Rodriguez is a reliever wearing a starter's label — 98 on the fastball, a changeup hitters have managed .133 against, but he's worked one inning at a time all season. That means eight innings from a staff that just spent Randy Vásquez for 65 pitches and JP Sears for 3.2 in last night's loss, with Wandy Peralta up two days running. That's the crack here and I'm not pretending it isn't. What keeps me on San Diego anyway: Morejon, Estrada, Matsui and Mason Miller are all rested, Petco takes the ball out of the air, and the Giants arrive without Daniel Susac, the bat that did all the damage in the opener. Behind Arraez and Devers this lineup is Eldridge at .184 over fifteen days, Adames at .208, McCray at .188. I'll lay it — Padres moneyline at -156, ten cents worse than it opened this morning, which is exactly why this is a firm play and not a big one.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· +113

Friday night at Chavez Ravine, three days from the deadline, and the two hottest storylines in the sport walk into the same building — the best record in baseball hosting the team that's gone 20-3 since the Fourth of July. The marquee says Dodgers. The pitching plan says something else entirely. Los Angeles is opening with Edgardo Henriquez, who threw nineteen pitches last night and is being asked to get through an inning tonight before handing the ball to whatever's left. And what's left is the part the price isn't respecting. Tanner Scott has thrown 41 pitches across the last two nights, Edwin Díaz 31, Alex Vesia 30 — that's the back of the bridge already spent, and now they need somebody to cover eight or nine innings in the opener of a three-game weekend. Boston's side of it looks nothing alike: eight and two-thirds relief innings across the last three games, seven different arms, Chapman and Weissert working ten and eleven pitches yesterday, Whitlock and Slaten untouched. Then there's the lineup Roberts wrote out. Suárez is a lefty, so Muncy and Rushing sit and Edman sits, and the answer is Miguel Rojas hitting third and Eliezer Alfonzo hitting ninth. That would make sense if Suárez were the standard lefty, but he isn't — righties have hit .222 with a .575 OPS off him this year across 261 at-bats, and that curveball gets a chase on damn near two of every three swings it invites. They benched three real bats to chase a platoon edge that runs backward against this particular arm. Now the number. This morning Boston was +102. It's +113 as I write this, which means the money came in on Los Angeles all day — some of it the Ohtani news, most of it people betting the logo and the 69-40. I'll take the other end of that all night long. I'm getting eleven cents better on a team with a defined starter, a rested bullpen behind him, a road record of 32-22, and an offense averaging 4.9 a game over the last two weeks against a staff that has to improvise from the first batter. This isn't a blowout play and I'm not pretending Freeman and Ohtani aren't scary. It's a coin flip being sold to me at plus money because one side has a nicer record. Red Sox moneyline, +113.

And what's left is the part the price isn't respecting. Tanner Scott has thrown 41 pitches across the last two nights, Edwin Díaz 31, Alex Vesia 30 — that's the back of the bridge already spent, and now they need somebody to cover eight or nine innings in the opener of a three-game weekend. Boston's side of it looks nothing alike: eight and two-thirds relief innings across the last three games, seven different arms, Chapman and Weissert working ten and eleven pitches yesterday, Whitlock and Slaten untouched. Then there's the lineup Roberts wrote out. Suárez is a lefty, so Muncy and Rushing sit and Edman sits, and the answer is Miguel Rojas hitting third and Eliezer Alfonzo hitting ninth. That would make sense if Suárez were the standard lefty, but he isn't — righties have hit .222 with a .575 OPS off him this year across 261 at-bats, and that curveball gets a chase on damn near two of every three swings it invites. They benched three real bats to chase a platoon edge that runs backward against this particular arm.

Now the number. This morning Boston was +102. It's +113 as I write this, which means the money came in on Los Angeles all day — some of it the Ohtani news, most of it people betting the logo and the 69-40. I'll take the other end of that all night long. I'm getting eleven cents better on a team with a defined starter, a rested bullpen behind him, a road record of 32-22, and an offense averaging 4.9 a game over the last two weeks against a staff that has to improvise from the first batter. This isn't a blowout play and I'm not pretending Freeman and Ohtani aren't scary. It's a coin flip being sold to me at plus money because one side has a nicer record. Red Sox moneyline, +113.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -164

Friday night under the roof in Seattle, deadline day, and both dugouts have one eye on the phone. Two clubs sitting on the wrong side of a coin flip — the Mariners two and a half back in the West after dropping seven of ten, the Twins even at 55-55 and flying in on the fumes of a walk-off grand slam. The board opened this morning with Seattle at -172 and has been shaved to -164. That drift is the part I care about, because nothing about tonight got worse for the home team between 5 a.m. and first pitch. Bryce Miller is the best arm in this ballpark by a distance that isn't close. A 2.75 ERA that his underlying work backs up at 2.65, a .254 expected wOBA against, 6.6 percent barrels, 30.9 percent hard contact — and a splitter he throws nearly a quarter of the time that hitters are batting .147 against with a .134 xwOBA. He doesn't need a platoon edge either: .615 OPS against lefties, .620 against righties. Minnesota is sending four left-handed bats and two switch-hitters at a man who doesn't care which box you stand in. Zebby Matthews walks in from the other side at 5.21 with 12 percent barrels allowed and a four-seamer he throws 37.5 percent of the time that gets hit to the tune of a .401 expected wOBA — which is exactly the pitch Dominic Canzone has been eating all year at .338 with a .700 slug. Matthews' whiff rate has fallen from 28 to 12 over his last five turns. He's a contact pitcher now who allows loud contact, and 5 mph blowing in from left in marine air is not the room he wants to test that in. The knock on this side is honest and I'll say it: Miller's team has gone 1-5 in his last six starts because Seattle doesn't score. They're at 3.7 runs a game over two weeks, Crawford's wrist put him on the IL Thursday, Raley's elbow scratched him from tonight's card, Julio is chasing half of everything he sees, and Raleigh is hitting .163. But Minnesota isn't the answer to that problem — five of their nine starters are under .150 over the last week, Larnach is 1 for 10, Brooks Lee 2 for 19, Bell 2 for 16. Their last three wins came on a ninth-inning slam, a ninth-inning triple, and an eleven-run night stitched together with errors and balks. That's not an offense, that's a highlight reel. And if this thing gets to the seventh tied, I want the side handing the ball to Speier at 1.88, Ferrer at 2.66 and Muñoz on two days' rest, not the side working through Rogers at 5.03 and Topa at 8.05 with Rojas' 52 pitches still on the odometer. Seattle at -164, and I'll take the number the walk-off highlight gave me.

Bryce Miller is the best arm in this ballpark by a distance that isn't close. A 2.75 ERA that his underlying work backs up at 2.65, a .254 expected wOBA against, 6.6 percent barrels, 30.9 percent hard contact — and a splitter he throws nearly a quarter of the time that hitters are batting .147 against with a .134 xwOBA. He doesn't need a platoon edge either: .615 OPS against lefties, .620 against righties. Minnesota is sending four left-handed bats and two switch-hitters at a man who doesn't care which box you stand in. Zebby Matthews walks in from the other side at 5.21 with 12 percent barrels allowed and a four-seamer he throws 37.5 percent of the time that gets hit to the tune of a .401 expected wOBA — which is exactly the pitch Dominic Canzone has been eating all year at .338 with a .700 slug. Matthews' whiff rate has fallen from 28 to 12 over his last five turns. He's a contact pitcher now who allows loud contact, and 5 mph blowing in from left in marine air is not the room he wants to test that in.

The knock on this side is honest and I'll say it: Miller's team has gone 1-5 in his last six starts because Seattle doesn't score. They're at 3.7 runs a game over two weeks, Crawford's wrist put him on the IL Thursday, Raley's elbow scratched him from tonight's card, Julio is chasing half of everything he sees, and Raleigh is hitting .163. But Minnesota isn't the answer to that problem — five of their nine starters are under .150 over the last week, Larnach is 1 for 10, Brooks Lee 2 for 19, Bell 2 for 16. Their last three wins came on a ninth-inning slam, a ninth-inning triple, and an eleven-run night stitched together with errors and balks. That's not an offense, that's a highlight reel. And if this thing gets to the seventh tied, I want the side handing the ball to Speier at 1.88, Ferrer at 2.66 and Muñoz on two days' rest, not the side working through Rogers at 5.03 and Topa at 8.05 with Rojas' 52 pitches still on the odometer. Seattle at -164, and I'll take the number the walk-off highlight gave me.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL BUSCHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -128

Warren's problem all year has been the glove side. Ten home runs surrendered to lefties in 224 at-bats against five in 178 to righties. He's also been generally hittable of late — averaging under five innings over his last six starts, with the Yankees losing five of those six. Busch is a lefty bat who's already shown he can find him: three at-bats, a hit, a homer, small sample but it lines up with everything else here. His day-game numbers this season, a .286 average and an .857 OPS, are also a good deal stronger than the mild slump he's carried the last two weeks, and today's a 2:20 start at Wrigley. The lineup around him is rolling too, over six runs a game across the last two weeks. Getting to a hit, a run, or an RBI shouldn't take much against this version of Warren.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -113

Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed bat who does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching — nineteen home runs against righties this season against five against lefties — and Warren fits that profile, a scuffling righty the Yankees have lost five of his last six starts with. He's doing it right now too: three homers in his last seven games, with 93 mph average exit velocity and six barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, so it isn't just a hot roll of the dice. Warren's sinker and sweeper are both getting hit for xwOBA numbers near .390 this season, and those are pitches a free-swinging lefty like this sees plenty of. One extra-base hit gets this done, and nobody on this roster is squaring the ball up better right now.

GARY'S PICK

NICK GONZALESH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -104

Gonzales might be the best bat on the field tonight that nobody's talking about. He's hitting .368 over his last fifteen games, he doesn't chase much and he doesn't miss much, and he's flat-out had Greene's number in the past — three hits in nine at-bats with barely any strikeout trouble. He's squaring balls up right now regardless of who's on the mound, and this is close to even money for a guy doing this three or four times a week lately. I'm taking it.

GARY'S PICK

NATHANIEL LOWETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +172

Lowe is having one of the better two-week stretches on either roster, and he's doing it from the side of the plate where he actually does damage — he hits right-handers a different way than lefties, and Skenes gives him exactly that look tonight. He's also more comfortable at home than on the road. He doubled last night and then beat out what looked like an inning-ending double play in the ninth to help cash the winning run, and he's shown all year he does his best work with runners on. Two total bases isn't much to ask from him right now.

THE LONG SHOT

ESMERLYN VALDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +335

Valdez has gone deep four times in his last fifteen days, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — 88.9 mph average exit velo with a barrel in his last eighteen balls in play back it up. He's a right-handed bat, and Great American Ball Park's short side is left field, which is exactly where a right-handed pull hitter is working tonight. Against right-handed pitching for his career he's gone deep once every 12.7 at-bats, and Hunter Greene is the softer matchup on this mound tonight — 7.06 ERA, xERA still ugly at 4.68, and hitters are hard-hitting him 46.6% of the time since he came back from elbow surgery. No head-to-head history between them either way, so this is pure form-meets-matchup, and both point the same direction. Cleanup spot gets him volume too.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYAN REYNOLDSHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +390

The batting line says cold — .157 over his last fifteen days — but the contact data underneath it says something different: ten hard-hit balls and three barrels in just nineteen balls in play over that same stretch. That's a hitter running into outs, not a hitter losing pop. He's also already got a track record against tonight's Reds starter specifically — a homer and a 1.075 OPS in sixteen career at-bats against Hunter Greene. Greene is letting hitters connect hard right now (46.6% hard-hit allowed, .332 xwOBA against), and Reynolds' underlying quality of contact is exactly the kind that tends to catch back up to the results.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +410

Stewart's put three home runs up in his last fifteen days and leads this Reds team in RBI on the year. Against right-handed pitching he's gone deep once every nineteen at-bats, and he's a right-handed bat with Great American's short left-field porch to work with tonight. The swing against him is Paul Skenes, who's been the best pitcher in this series by a wide margin — 2.82 xERA, only 6.6% barrels allowed all year — so I'm not pretending this is a soft matchup. But Stewart's current power stroke and the platoon/park fit are real enough to back him even against Pittsburgh's ace.

THE LONG SHOT

ELLY DE LA CRUZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +428

De La Cruz is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now — 98.1 mph average exit velo with three barrels in nineteen balls in play over his last fifteen days — and at Great American Ball Park specifically he's gone deep once every seventeen at-bats for his career. He's 0-for-3 with five strikeouts in eleven career at-bats against Paul Skenes, so this isn't a matchup he's cracked personally, and Skenes is the best arm on the mound in this series. But De La Cruz doesn't need a friendly matchup to do damage — the bat speed and quality of contact are elite regardless of who's throwing — and he gets to do it at home tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

SPENCER JONESHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +600

Jones has been squaring balls up about as hard as anyone in this lineup lately — a three-run homer two games ago in Chicago, and the contact since has stayed loud even beyond that one swing. That's not a guy searching for his timing, that's a guy finding barrels. He's also getting a real look in the middle of a Yankees order that's without Judge, Stanton, and now Bellinger — this isn't a token start, it's everyday opportunity to keep doing damage. Against Imanaga specifically, the home runs have actually come more often against lefties than righties this season, so I'm not treating the same-side matchup as the problem it would normally be. What keeps me from leaning on this harder: Jones hasn't hit in day games this year, and this one gets going in the early afternoon at Wrigley, with weather that could move through as the day goes on. I'd rather this happen early than count on him seeing a full game's worth of pitches. That's a lean, not a max play, but the swings I'm seeing right now are real.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON YOUNGK'S OVER 4.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -132

Young's been the best arm in this series by a wide margin, missing bats in six straight starts with a slider hitters are whiffing on at a 50 percent clip. He's walking into a Phillies lineup that just got swept in Miami looking lost at the plate — Harper's chasing at a 40 percent rate lately, and that's not an isolated case in this order right now. A pitcher this locked in against an offense this uncomfortable is the combination I want for strikeouts.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW PAINTERPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +106

Painter just got recalled after 44 days in Triple-A, and nothing about his big-league tape says he fixed what got him sent down. He's carrying a 7.06 ERA and hitters are hammering his fastball for a .400-plus average — that's not bad luck, that's hard contact on his best pitch. He's facing an Orioles lineup that just put up ten runs two nights ago, with a middle order that can do damage against a guy missing spots. Two and a half earned runs is a low bar for a pitcher throwing like this.

THE LONG SHOT

COBY MAYOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +450

Mayo's been the hottest bat in this lineup this week — a game-tying triple in extras and multiple balls leaving the yard. Painter has given up multiple home runs in four of his last six big-league starts, mostly off the fastball and sinker he still leans on early in counts. This is a hot power bat walking into a pitcher who can't keep the ball in the park.

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CEASEK'S OVER 7.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -130

Cease has punched out seven or more hitters in five of his last six starts, averaging better than nine a night, and both his slider and changeup are missing bats at an elite rate right now — the slider getting whiffs on more than four in ten swings, the changeup on better than half. The only time he came up short was a six-inning outing against Tampa Bay where a couple of early homers changed the shape of his night, a different look than what's across from him tonight. St. Louis is averaging under three runs a game over its last five games, and the top of the order — Wetherholt and Walker — are both scuffling badly. Good swing-and-miss stuff lined up against a lineup that isn't seeing the ball well.

GARY'S PICK

DAULTON VARSHOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +142

Leahy has a real left-handed hitter problem this season — .309 average, an .870 OPS against, seven home runs allowed in under 200 at-bats from that side of the plate. Varsho is a lefty bat who's been the hottest hitter in this Toronto lineup over the past week, nine hits in his last 24 with an .858 OPS, and he already delivered the go-ahead hit two nights ago to close out the series in Washington. He's in the middle of the order against a pitcher with a specific, demonstrated hole for exactly his type of at-bat.

GARY'S PICK

MUNETAKA MURAKAMIHITS OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -174

Murakami's been on one of the hotter runs on either roster — nine hits in his last seven games, and the underlying contact backs it up, not just an empty batting average. He's squaring balls up at a rate that stands out even in a small window. Against right-handed pitching this season he's a different hitter than his overall line suggests, with far more thump than he shows against lefties, and Martinez is a righty. Short price, but I don't need length here — I want the swing he's taking into tonight.

GARY'S PICK

CHASE MEIDROTHTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +195

Meidroth's carrying more pop than his spot in the order suggests — two home runs in his last week, and the exit-velocity readings back it up, this isn't accidental power. He's turning quality contact into extra bases at a real clip right now, and this line only asks him to get to two bases once, or find a couple of singles. Given where his bat is at the moment, that's not a heavy lift, and the price hasn't caught up to how he's been squaring the ball up.

GARY'S PICK

KODAI SENGAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· -110

An 8.85 ERA isn't one bad week — it's been the whole season, and the pitch-level numbers back it up. Hitters have a .420 expected weighted on-base average against his fastball and .608 against his cutter, and those two pitches are more than half of what he throws. His forkball is the only real swing-and-miss weapon in the mix. He's allowed two or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and tonight he's pitching at the park where his numbers are worst all season. The lineup across from him hits left-handed from the top to the middle of the order — Hicks, Stowers, Conine, Marsee, Mack — and left-handed bats have put up a 1.032 OPS against him this year. I don't need a total collapse for this to cash. I need one bad inning, and that's been the rule with him lately, not the exception.

GARY'S PICK

GRIFFIN CONINETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +184

Conine's swinging it as well as anyone in that lineup right now — four home runs and a .947 OPS over his last two weeks. He's left-handed, walking into a matchup against a pitcher who has had no answer for left-handed hitting all season: a 1.032 OPS allowed with six home runs surrendered in well under 200 at-bats against lefties. Senga's two most-used pitches, the four-seamer and the cutter, are both getting hit hard by everybody who steps in against him, and Conine's contact right now is loud enough to take advantage of a mistake. He doesn't need a monster night to clear two bases — one extra-base hit does it — and he's been doing exactly that more often than this price accounts for.

GARY'S PICK

FOSTER GRIFFINPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -145

This is about survivability more than dominance. Griffin has worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, and the one time he came out early he still went five. Eighteen outs isn't a reach for him, it's close to his floor right now. Nothing about tonight's setup points to a shortened outing — no piggyback plan, no innings limit reported, nothing unusual. The lefty-heavy top of Atlanta's order plays into his hand too; when a pitcher is handling the middle of the order efficiently, the innings come easier and deeper. The price is short because it should be, he's been remarkably automatic at clearing this number.

GARY'S PICK

CJ ABRAMSRUNS SCORED OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +110

Abrams is doing damage in every way that leads to a run crossing the plate. He's scored in two-thirds of his games over the last two weeks, he's got seven home runs in his last fifteen games — which is itself an automatic run — and he's hitting cleanup behind James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr. and Dylan Crews, three hitters all reaching base at a good clip right now who'll put him in position to score even on a single. He's also faced Elder before and hit .400 against him without striking out once in fifteen at-bats, so he sees this arm well. Plus money for a hitter in this form, in this lineup spot, against this pitcher, is a number I want.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN WALDSCHMIDTHITS OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -125

Waldschmidt's at .379 with a .987 OPS over his last 15 games, and the week before tonight has been even louder — 6-for-11. That's a hitter already locked in walking into a soft matchup: a right-handed bat against a left-hander in Bratt, who's letting right-handed hitters hit .279 with an .891 OPS off him this year. His whiff rate the last two weeks sits at 17 percent and he's chasing at 25 percent, both perfectly normal numbers for a guy squaring the ball up the way he has been. Bratt's fastball sits 91-and-a-half and is getting hit at a .333 clip, his sinker's at .375 against, and there's no real swing-and-miss weapon in the arsenal outside the slurve. I don't need Waldschmidt to do anything more than keep doing what he's already doing.

GARY'S PICK

STEVEN KWANHITS OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -195

Kwan doesn't chase and he doesn't miss — 17 percent whiff, 17 percent chase over his last two weeks, and those are skills that travel from game to game. He's got a hit in 13 of his last 15 and he's hitting .391 in that stretch. Put a contact bat like that in front of a rookie left-hander who's getting hit at a .333 clip on the fastball and .375 on the sinker, with almost nothing in the arsenal that misses bats, and the short price is short for a reason. This is the floor play of the night.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -140

Alvarez has hit .600 with a 1.704 OPS in his career at-bats against Eovaldi, and that's not a three-game fluke — it's two dozen at-bats of him squaring up exactly what Eovaldi throws. Eovaldi lives off his splitter and curveball and mostly avoids his four-seam for good reason: it's getting hit at a .397 clip and a .401 expected wOBA against this year. Alvarez happens to be a fastball hitter, .538 expected wOBA against four-seamers in 2026. If Eovaldi has to show him one even a handful of times tonight, that tilts hard toward the hitter. He's also running a 1.179 OPS over his last fifteen games and he mashes at home. Clearing one hit, run, or RBI combined is a low bar for a guy locked in like this.

GARY'S PICK

EZEQUIEL DURANRUNS SCORED OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +190

Duran's in the middle of a real stretch — two home runs and six RBIs in his last seven games, and he's crossed the plate in eleven of his last fifteen. He's hitting fifth for Texas behind Pederson, Langford, and a Seager bat that's back in the lineup, so there should be traffic in front of him most nights. Brown has been walking hitters at a high rate lately, which only helps stretch out at-bats for the middle of this order. Plus-190 for a guy scoring at a 73 percent clip over two weeks is too much number to pass on.

THE LONG SHOT

JAKE BURGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +529

Burger has two home runs in ten career at-bats against Brown, a rate worth noting even in a small sample, and he's got three home runs in his last fifteen games on top of it — he's built to do damage in bunches, not string together average. This is a lower-probability swing than the rest of my card tonight, but the price reflects that, and the personal history against this exact pitcher plus the current power output make plus-529 worth a shot.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL WACHAK'S OVER 4.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +105

Wacha leans on his changeup and four-seamer for about half his pitches, and both are legitimate swing-and-miss weapons — the changeup's been his best all season. Colorado's lineup strikes out close to nine times a game as a team, and Wacha's cleared this number in five of his last eight turns while still working deep into starts most nights out. Plus money on a total that sits right under his own season punchout rate is the right side of a fair number.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -135

Sugano's fastball and sinker account for two of every five pitches he throws, and the league is hitting both hard all year — a .317 average on the four-seamer, .342 on the sinker. Caglianone's underlying contact this season has been better than his batting line shows, and the ball carries at altitude in this building. He's been cold the last couple weeks, but the exit velocity hasn't gone anywhere — he's still squaring the ball up, it just hasn't fallen in. One clean swing at a fastball or sinker tonight and he's past this number.

GARY'S PICK

SHANE DROHANPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -105

Drohan's sitting on a 3.51 ERA but that number is doing a lot of hiding — his sinker gets hit at a .370 clip and his hard-hit rate against is pushing 38%. He's not missing bats with that pitch, he's surviving it with sequencing and limiting the damage on contact. He's allowed five or more hits in five straight starts and seven of his last eight overall. I don't need a bad outing for this to cash, I need a normal one.

GARY'S PICK

VAUGHN GRISSOMH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +117

Grissom is running the show in the middle of this lineup right now — two homers and eight RBI over his last seven games, and he's hitting well over .300 with runners in scoring position this year. Asking him for two combined hits, runs, or RBI in a game isn't a stretch for a bat swinging like this, and I'm still getting paid plus money for it.

THE LONG SHOT

GABRIEL MORENOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +850

Moreno's been the best bat on either roster for two weeks running, and it isn't an empty .950 OPS — the underlying contact backs it up, and by the expected numbers there's still a little more slug owed to him, not less. He hits right-handers well over the course of a season, and his power hasn't dropped off on the road the way it should worry me tonight as the visiting bat. Bibee's sinker is one of the pitches hitters have done the most with against him this year, and it's a pitch Moreno already squares up. I don't need a new version of him to show up — just the one that's already been running hot for two weeks.

THE LONG SHOT

CHASE DELAUTERHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +650

Bratt hasn't figured out how to keep two of his most-used pitches in the yard — his fastball and his slider have both gotten hit hard all season, and between them that's over half of everything he throws. DeLauter is one of the rare left-handed bats who's actually better against left-handed pitching, and his numbers against both a fastball and a slider specifically are loud — real slugging, not just empty contact. His exit velocity the last couple weeks has been sharper than his batting average lets on, so the swing is in a good place even with the average still catching up. When the way a rookie pitcher is getting hit lines up this cleanly with what the hitter already does well, that's the kind of night I want a piece of.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE STOWERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +550

Stowers has been the hottest hitter on either roster this week — three home runs in his last seven games, squaring balls up at nearly 97 miles an hour off the bat in that stretch with four barreled balls in sixteen chances. He's left-handed, and Kodai Senga has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — they carry an OPS over 1.000 against him, more than 150 points higher than what right-handers have managed. Stowers already has a home run on his card against Senga in a small four-at-bat sample. Exit velocity, barrel rate, and the platoon split all point the same direction. Betting the over.

THE LONG SHOT

MUNETAKA MURAKAMIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +370

Murakami's in the middle of the best power stretch of his season — three home runs in his last seven games, and the underlying contact backs it up. He's hitting the ball harder and finding more barrels right now than anyone else in this lineup. He does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching, and Martinez is a righty. This is also a night game, and Murakami's numbers jump significantly under the lights compared to day baseball. None of that makes it easy — Tropicana plays down for power, and Martinez's changeup is a real weapon he'll go to — but the recent form and the platoon fit are both pointing the same direction, and at plus-370 I don't need this to be a coin flip to like it.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +700

Conine is carrying the best power surge on the board tonight — four home runs in his last fifteen games, and a .991 OPS with nine homers against right-handed pitching this season in well under a hundred at-bats. Kodai Senga leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch he throws, and it's the one that's been hit hardest against him all season, with opponents batting over .330 on it. Conine's own numbers against the four-seamer back that up — over .300 with a .696 slugging mark on the pitch this year. A hot bat matched against a pitcher's clearest weakness, at seven-to-one. Betting the over.

THE LONG SHOT

JAKE BAUERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +350

Bauers is squaring up everything right now — his exit velocity over the last two weeks has been running well above a normal solid-average line, and that kind of contact finds the gaps and eventually the seats even before the batting average catches up. He's also a clearly better power hitter at night than during the day this season, and first pitch tonight is well after dark. Ryan Johnson's sinker has been about as hittable as a pitch gets in the big leagues this year, and he still throws it more than a quarter of the time. Bauers doesn't chase out of the zone, so he'll get that pitch to work with, and lefties have hit Johnson harder than righties have all season. I don't need a pretty batting line tonight, just one mistake sinker.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +360

Caminero's a different hitter at home than he is on the road, and tonight he's at home. Almost all of his power this year has come with the platoon in his favor against right-handers, and Fedde fits that. The pitch mix is what sells me — Fedde leans on his sinker and sweeper for most of his outs, and Caminero has hit both sinkers and fastballs hard all season. Fedde's cutter has also been his most hittable pitch by results, and it's not a rare show-me offering, he mixes it in enough to matter. Caminero's been quiet for a week, but quiet in results, not in contact quality, and a hitter with this kind of home and platoon profile earns the benefit of the doubt from me even in a tough power park.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN YELICHHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +600

Yelich's barrel rate has ticked up noticeably over the last few weeks, and that's usually the tell that shows up before the power does — he's finding the sweet spot more than his batting line lets on right now. Johnson has actually had a tougher time against lefties than righties this season, which runs backwards from what you'd expect out of a right-hander, and his sinker is the one pitch in his mix that's gotten hammered all year regardless of who's in the box. Yelich is patient enough to let a bad pitch come to him instead of chasing one out of the zone. Plus-600 for one swing against a pitcher this hittable from the left side is a number I want.

THE LONG SHOT

JO ADELLHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +460

Adell already has three home runs in the last two weeks, and the contact quality behind that stretch says it's real — his expected slugging has been running ahead of where his actual slugging sits, which tells me the ball has been coming off his bat better than the results show. Drohan hasn't allowed a home run to a left-handed hitter all season, but he's given up six to righties, and Adell hits from that side. Drohan's cutter and curveball have also been his two most hittable pitches this season, so there's more than one way for Adell to run into one tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

CORBIN CARROLLHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +500

Carroll's contact quality the last two weeks is the loudest on this whole board — exit velocity up, barrels up, the kind of contact that turns into homers whether the batting average has caught up yet or not. He's got a real power track record against right-handed pitching for his career, and in a small sample against Bibee specifically he's hitting .500 with three hits in six career at-bats. The one mark against it is that his power at home has been noticeably better than his power on the road this year, and tonight he's the visitor. I'm still in — recent contact like this is loud enough that I think it travels.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO ALVAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +500

Alvarez has three home runs in his last fifteen games and he's been driving the ball hard in that stretch — five hard-hit balls and two barrels in his last ten balls in play. He's a right-handed hitter with real over-the-fence power against right-handed pitching this year, and Janson Junk's slider and curveball have both been getting hit hard all season, the curveball especially — opponents are batting .333 off it. The wind is blowing out to left field at Citi Field tonight, which sits right in Alvarez's pull path. It's the shortest price on this board for a reason — the market's seeing the same form I am — but I still like it. Betting the over.

THE LONG SHOT

MIGUEL VARGASHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +300

Vargas has kept hitting the ball hard even while his results lagged the last two weeks — the exit velocity and barrel rate are still there even though the batting line isn't showing it. Martinez has been excellent overall this year, but the pitch he throws most, his sinker, is also the one hitters have squared up the most against him — a lot of contact allowed and not much swing and miss on it. Vargas has built a real home run total against right-handed pitching this season on a big sample. This is the shortest price of the three I'm taking tonight, and Tropicana is a fair headwind for everybody in this game, which is why I'm not going bigger here — but I think the price still undersells him.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +650

Lindor's running hot — two home runs and eight RBIs in his last seven games, three homers and twelve driven in over his last fifteen, and the contact quality backs it up with three barreled balls in his last twenty balls in play. He's a switch-hitter, which means he bats left-handed against Janson Junk tonight, and Junk has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — an .875 OPS against, compared to well under .600 against right-handers. That's about as clean a platoon matchup as this board offers. Betting the over.

THE LONG SHOT

VAUGHN GRISSOMHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +730

Grissom's the hottest bat in this Angels lineup right now — two home runs in his last seven games with the underlying contact trending up alongside it. Drohan hasn't given up a single home run to a left-handed hitter all year, but he's allowed six to righties, and Grissom bats right-handed. Most of his power this season has come with the bases empty rather than in traffic, so I like that he gets his own uninterrupted swing instead of needing to drive somebody in first. Plus-730 for a bat running a home run every five games or so right now is a discount I'll take.

GARY'S PICK

JEFFREY SPRINGSPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 3.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +115

Springs is walking in with a 6.23 ERA and a track record against this exact Tigers roster that already went sideways once this season — six earned runs in four and a third innings back on July 8. He left his last start against Minnesota early with hip discomfort, and even with no new setback reported, a pitcher coming off that kind of exit five days ago isn't pitching on a long leash tonight. Move him from Comerica to Sutter Health Park on a 97-degree night with the wind blowing out, and that's a step up in difficulty for someone who was already getting hit hard before any of this. Plus money for him to cross three and a half earned runs is the number I want.

GARY'S PICK

TYLER SODERSTROMH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -133

Soderstrom's been hitting with real conviction the last two weeks — three home runs in his last fifteen games isn't an accident, and he's cleared this number in two of every three games recently. He's in the cleanup spot tonight behind a lineup that's actually getting on base ahead of him, and Detroit is patching this game together with a scratched starter and a bullpen day. That's the kind of night a hot middle-of-the-order bat turns into a multi-stat game.

GARY'S PICK

TY FRANCETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +125

France is running as hot as anyone in this lineup, 18 hits in his last 53 at-bats with five home runs mixed in, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Whisenhunt's four-seamer is the pitch that's supposed to set up everything else, and instead it's the one getting hunted all season. France has already shown he does damage against that exact shape of pitch, and his numbers against changeups, Whisenhunt's other primary weapon, are even better. A right-handed bat against a left-hander who's allowing hard contact at a 41 percent clip, in a lineup full of the same look — one extra-base knock covers this number, and everything about how he's swinging it points that direction.

GARY'S PICK

MANNY MACHADOH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +140

Machado has four homers and nine RBI over his last two weeks, and the pitch he's living on right now — the four-seam fastball, where he's slugging .652 for the season — is exactly the pitch Whisenhunt can't keep off the barrel. This isn't a rookie nibbling around contact; he's throwing that fastball nearly 40 percent of the time and it's getting hit at a .400 clip. A combined hit-run-RBI line of three just needs Machado to keep doing what he's already doing most nights against a pitcher who's given him no reason to expect otherwise.

GARY'S PICK

CEDDANNE RAFAELAH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -105

Ceddanne Rafaela is thriving in the two-hole for Boston right now. He has cashed this combined prop in 11 of his last 15 games, bringing a steady stream of contact and run production ahead of the big bats in the middle of the order. The Dodgers are piecing together a bullpen game tonight to cover for a thin rotation, meaning Rafaela is going to see a carousel of relievers rather than letting a traditional starter settle into a rhythm against him. Getting nearly even money on a top-of-the-order bat who has been this consistent is a blind spot in the market. I am gladly taking the over.

GARY'S PICK

ANDRUW MONASTERIOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +127

The market price here assumes Andruw Monasterio is just a bottom-of-the-order afterthought, but he has been arguably the most locked-in hitter in this Boston lineup. He is batting over .400 across his last 15 games and has cleared this 1.5 threshold in 10 of those contests. He is consistently finding his way on base and driving in runs when the top half of the order leaves traffic on the basepaths. At +127, this line leans way too hard on his spot in the batting order and ignores the actual momentum he brings to the plate right now.

GARY'S PICK

ZEBBY MATTHEWSPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +105

Matthews' whiff rate has been sliding start over start — 28 percent, 21, 21, 17, 12 over his last five turns. That's stuff flattening out as the season wears on, and a pitcher who stops missing bats usually starts steering the ball instead of trusting it. He's walked multiple hitters in five of his last six outings, including back-to-back three-walk games his last two turns and a four-walk outing back in early July. Plus money on a guy trending toward more free passes, not fewer, is the number I want.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE MILLERK'S OVER 5.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +100

Miller's out pitch is the splitter, and it's been dominant all year — .147 average against it, missing bats more than a third of the time hitters swing at it. Minnesota's lineup has some real swing-and-miss in it tonight too: Royce Lewis has whiffed on 41 percent of his swings recently, Larnach's at 32, Jeffers at 23. That's the matchup this pitch was built for. His last start was a clunker — no strikeouts against Texas — but that read more like a night of quiet contact than diminished stuff, and he'd cleared this number in four of his five starts before that. Even money for a swing-and-miss arm with these matchup advantages to get to six strikeouts is the side I want.

Research

173

BULLPENCHW @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa's pen is running on fumes — Baker and Cleavinger both worked both of the last two days and Seymour just ate 71 pitches, so none of them have much left. If this stays tight late, Kevin Kelly's about the only fully trustworthy arm they've got.
TEAM RECORDMIA @ NYM
Mets 0-8 in Kodai Senga's last 8 starts
Mets have dropped eight in a row with Senga starting. That's on the whole team, not just him — but eight straight is eight straight, and Miami's the one hoping to make it nine tonight.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ ATL
Nationals 7-0 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts
Seven starts, seven Nationals wins with Griffin on the mound. That's a team number more than a pitcher number — check how he's actually throwing before leaning on the record alone.
BULLPENSTL @ TOR
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis has three high-leverage arms — Stanek, O'Brien, Gastelum — all on zero rest after working both of the last two days. Graceffo and Strzelecki are the only two who've only been used once, and they're the fresher option if the Cardinals need length tonight.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Kyle Leahy (RHP)
Lukes has hit .801 against right-handers this year compared to .359 against lefties, a real split over a real sample. Leahy's a righty and Lukes leads off tonight, so that platoon lines up clean.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGENYY @ CHC
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Goldschmidt's a completely different hitter against lefties — 1.043 OPS in 117 at-bats compared to .588 against right-handers. Imanaga's a lefty and Goldschmidt's leading off tonight, right into the matchup that's worked for him all year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDPHI @ BAL
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
Painter's taken the ball eight times and the Phillies have won once. Five losses in a row in his starts now, and he's back out there tonight in Baltimore trying to snap it.
CUT LISTCOL tonight
Tomoyuki Sugano
Starts tonight for COL — 7.33 xERA behind a 4.69 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ NYM
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Kodai Senga (RHP)
Hicks is a different hitter against right-handers — .885 OPS over 266 at-bats versus .501 the other way. Senga's a righty and Hicks leads off for Miami tonight, so he's getting his side of the platoon in a matchup the Mets probably wish they could avoid.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDCHW @ TB
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Tampa's won six of Martinez's last seven starts. Worth pairing with the regression note on him below — the ERA behind that record has been running well ahead of what he's actually allowing.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ TOR
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Dylan Cease (RHP)
Burleson's mashing right-handers this season, a .945 OPS over 282 at-bats against a .500 mark versus lefties. Cease is a righty and Burleson hits third tonight, right in his sweet spot.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
STREAKNYY @ CHC
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Five straight unders for the Yankees, real scoring around 7.2 runs a game against lines that had been sitting near 10.7. Tonight's number comes down to 9 — the market's adjusted some, but there's still room between that and where these games have actually landed.
P final total 2 vs 9
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez vs Nathan Eovaldi: .600
Alvarez has just owned Eovaldi over the years — 12-for-20 with a pair of homers whenever they've met, and they meet again tonight. He's also riding a 1.179 OPS over his last 15 days walking in, so nothing about his form says this trend breaks.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ LAA
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's numbers against right-handers, .916 OPS, are way out ahead of what he does against lefties, and Ryan Johnson throws right-handed. He leads off into a matchup that favors him on paper.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ TB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Nick Martinez (RHP)
Antonacci's got an .860 OPS against right-handers versus .518 against lefties, and he leads off against the right-handed Martinez tonight. Clean side of his platoon split.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Moniak's a completely different hitter against right-handers — .952 OPS in 197 at-bats compared to .595 versus lefties. Wacha's a righty and Moniak hits second tonight, right in the version of this matchup that's actually worked for him.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Max Fried
Monday's start at the White Sox already happened. Saturday at the Cubs is the only one left on the week, and a 2.51 xERA is the best number on this whole sheet. Start him Saturday, no debate.
TEAM RECORDTEX @ HOU
Rangers 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in Eovaldi's last eight starts, but Texas games have also gone over in four straight — this isn't a team riding shutdown pitching, it's one outscoring people.
BALLPARKMIA @ NYM
At Citi Field, Kodai Senga pitches to a 11.72 ERA
Senga's ERA at Citi Field is 11.72 over six starts this year, compared to 6.65 on the road, and hitters are batting .311 off him at home. Something about pitching in front of his own crowd hasn't worked for him this season.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ BAL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's OPS against right-handers this year is .993, almost 400 points higher than his .617 mark against lefties. Young's a righty and Harper's hitting third tonight, so this is the matchup Baltimore would rather not be giving him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDPHI @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 6-2 in Brandon Young's last eight, four straight wins in that stretch. Solid trend, but a team record follows the whole roster, not just the guy pitching.
COOLING OFFSTL @ TOR
Jordan Walker: .530 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
Walker's been cold — .530 OPS over his last 15 days, way down from his .838 season line. Cease is a righty, and right-handers are already the tougher matchup for Walker this year at .815, so tonight doesn't look like the spot he breaks out of it.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDCHW @ TB
White Sox 6-2 in Erick Fedde's last 8 starts
White Sox are 6-2 with Fedde on the mound, five straight wins in his starts. Same caveat as any of these — I want to see the pitching line, not just the standings column.
TEAM RECORDKC @ COL
Rockies 6-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts
Colorado's 6-2 with Sugano starting. But his last three outings have been ugly — 6.48 ERA — and the season-long gap between his ERA and xERA said that correction was coming. Looks like it already has.
HEAT CHECKSF @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.045 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's hitting at a 1.045 OPS clip over his last 15 days against a .679 season line — that's a real gap. Fifteen homers on the year, and his total-bases number tonight is 1.5, a line that hasn't caught up to how he's swinging it lately.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: 1.280 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is running a 1.280 OPS over his last 15 days, more than 350 points above his season mark, with 27 home runs already banked. His total-bases number sits at just 1.5 tonight — a hot bat like that against a line like that is worth a look.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
BALLPARKMIL @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 4.95 at Angel Stadium
Ryan Johnson's home starts have gone considerably better than his road ones — 4.95 ERA at Angel Stadium against 9.55 everywhere else. He's home tonight, and the contact quality underneath his ugly season line says he hasn't been hit as hard as the ERA suggests.
P 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
HR THREATRangers @ Astros
Yordan Alvarez
Gary's Take There's a reason Alvarez sits alone at the top of this board price-wise. He's in the middle of the best two weeks of his season — four home runs and a 1.179 OPS since the middle of July — and Eovaldi is about as bad a matchup as a pitcher can hand him.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKWSH @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: 1.204 OPS in Last 15 Days
Baldwin's running a 1.204 OPS over his last 15 days, well clear of his .851 season mark, with 20 homers already banked. Same 1.5 total-bases number as Abrams tonight, and he's earned that look too.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
SITUATIONALPIT @ CIN
PIT's pen has logged 17.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 17.7 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Hunter Barco (3) carried the load. CIN's pen has thrown 15 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 7-8
REGRESSIONMIA @ NYM
Kodai Senga: 8.85 ERA vs 5.42 xERA
Senga's actual ERA is 8.85, but the expected number off his contact quality is 5.42 — a gap north of three runs. Opponents are hitting .280 against him with a .244 expected average, so the results have been uglier than the process, and most lines are still pricing off that 8.85.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
STREAKCHW @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 5 straight
The under has cashed 5 in a row in TB games: 3.4 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 6.4. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 7 vs 8.5
BULLPENTEX @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston's setup bridge is worn down — Abreu and Okert have each pitched both of the last two days, Okert already to 40 pitches in that stretch. Hader got a rest day mixed into his two outings, so he still looks live for the ninth with a lead.
COOLING OFFPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds: .526 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
Reynolds is cold — .526 OPS over his last 15 days, down from an .835 season mark. Greene's a righty, and right-handers are already the tougher side for Reynolds this year at .818, so tonight's matchup doesn't do him any favors.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
STREAKKC @ COL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Colorado's gone under in five straight, but that's happening at altitude, where the environment usually pushes totals up, not down. The line's just been set even higher than the 12.2 runs a game these have actually produced — tonight it comes down to 11, still rich for a normal park.
P final total 4 vs 11
PLATOON EDGECHW @ TB
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Nick Martinez (RHP)
Murakami's punishing right-handers this season, a 1.018 OPS over 177 at-bats compared to .716 against lefties. Martinez is a righty and Murakami hits second tonight, right where his numbers say he should do damage.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 7/27
Zack Wheeler
Monday against the Marlins is already in the books. Sunday at the Orioles closes out his week, backed by a 2.65 xERA. Start him Sunday, easy yes.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Kodai Senga (RHP), batting 4th
Kyle Stowers carries a .852 OPS vs. Right (247 AB) against .492 the other way (70 AB), and faces RHP Kodai Senga from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
HEAT CHECKTEX @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.264 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on one — 1.264 OPS over his last 15 days versus an .866 season mark, a nearly 400-point jump. Twelve homers on the year, and his total-bases line still sits at just 1.5 tonight.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
BULLPENPHI @ BAL
Baltimore Orioles pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore's bullpen is about as fresh as it gets — nine arms covering 14.3 innings and nobody's gone in each of the last two days. Cano and Kittredge are both fully available on light recent counts, so the matchups are wide open late.
SITUATIONALCHW @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 16.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Ian Seymour (4.7) and Steven Matz (3.3). CHW's pen has thrown 14.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-1
BALLPARKBOS @ LAD
Edgardo Henriquez owns a 0.81 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 5.12 everywhere else
Henriquez turns into a different pitcher at Dodger Stadium — 0.81 ERA at home against 5.12 on the road, opponents hitting .113 off him there. That's as sharp a split as you'll find on this board.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
HEAT CHECKPHI @ BAL
Trea Turner: 1.032 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's at a 1.032 OPS over his last 15 days against a .684 season mark, close to 350 points higher. Fifteen homers on the year, and the total-bases number tonight is still just 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
COOLING OFFCHW @ TB
Tristan Peters: .307 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nick Martinez
Peters has been ice cold — .307 OPS over his last 15 days, down more than 400 points from his .755 season mark. He does draw his better side tonight though, an .803 mark against right-handers like Martinez, so there's a case for some correction if he's going to find it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ CIN
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Hunter Greene (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .897 OPS vs. Right (279 AB) against .608 the other way (121 AB), and faces RHP Hunter Greene from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKSF @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.098 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's running a 1.098 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .623 season line, one of the bigger gaps on the board tonight. His total-bases number sits at 1.5 as well.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFPHI @ BAL
Brandon Marsh: .360 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Young
Marsh has been rough lately — .360 OPS over his last 15 days, down from .776 on the season. He does get his better side tonight, an .826 mark against right-handers like Young, so if he's going to snap out of it, this is a fair matchup to do it in.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENPIT @ CIN
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 17.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh's thrown more bullpen innings than anyone in this group, but it's mostly one-and-done work. Soto's the exception — back-to-back days, already at 40 pitches — so he's the name to watch if Cincinnati gets a look at him late.
COOLING OFFCHW @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Erick Fedde
Aranda's cold — .456 OPS over his last 15 days against an .813 season mark. He's facing a righty in Fedde tonight, which is actually his stronger side at .875, so the matchup at least gives him a chance to turn it around.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYY @ CHC
Ben Rice: .672 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
Rice has cooled off — .672 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .931 season mark. Imanaga's a lefty, technically Rice's weaker side, but an .813 OPS against lefties this year is still plenty good, so 'weaker side' is relative here.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HR THREATGiants @ Padres
Jackson Merrill
Gary's Take Merrill's squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now, and the quality of contact actually backs up the batting average, which isn't always the case with a hot week. Five home runs in his last two weeks matches the best power stretch on this roster, and he's doing it against a Giants starter who's letting hard, well-struck contact through no matter who's standing in the box.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATDiamondbacks @ Guardians
Corbin Carroll
Gary's Take Bibee's been fine on the surface this year, an ERA under 4 even with a losing record behind him, but dig into how he's allowed his power and there's a real split hiding in there — left-handed hitters have gone deep against him at close to double the rate right-handers have, and that's built up over a full season of innings, not a one-start blip. Carroll bats left-handed and he's controlling the barrel as well right now as anyone in this lineup, the contact quality the last couple weeks is a notch above where he was earlier in the year.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATDiamondbacks @ Guardians
Gabriel Moreno
Gary's Take Moreno's been the best bat on either roster for two weeks running, and it isn't an empty .950 OPS — the underlying contact backs it up, and by the expected numbers there's still a little more slug owed to him, not less. He hits right-handers well over the course of a season, and his power hasn't dropped off on the road the way it should worry me tonight as the visiting bat.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
SITUATIONALSTL @ TOR
16 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 16 innings over the last 3 games (CJ Van Eyk (3.3) and Louis Varland (3) the heaviest). STL's pen has thrown 16 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-3
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Payton Tolle
Monday's Athletics start is done. Saturday on the road at the Dodgers is the one game he's got left, with a 2.91 xERA behind him all year. Start him Saturday.
SITUATIONALTEX @ HOU
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Cristian Javier (5) and AJ Blubaugh (2.3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-11
HEAT CHECKNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .955 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hoerner's at a .955 OPS over his last 15 days, close to 300 points above his .670 season mark — a real hot stretch for a guy who doesn't usually run numbers like that.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HR THREATPirates @ Reds
Esmerlyn Valdez
Gary's Take Valdez has gone deep four times in his last fifteen days, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — 88.9 mph average exit velo with a barrel in his last eighteen balls in play back it up. He's a right-handed bat, and Great American Ball Park's short side is left field, which is exactly where a right-handed pull hitter is working tonight.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Jake Bennett
He's running the same two-city week as Tolle, just a day behind — Athletics already played Tuesday, Dodgers still ahead on Sunday. One start left to account for, at a 3.07 xERA. Start him Sunday.
REGRESSIONKC @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.69 ERA vs 7.33 xERA
Sugano's ERA and xERA are almost three runs apart, the widest gap on the board — a 44.9% hard-hit rate and a strikeout rate that isn't missing enough bats to cover for it. Results have been running well ahead of what he's actually allowing.
P 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
TWO STARTSCincinnati Reds — week of 7/27
Chase Burns
Tuesday's Guardians start at home is already played. Sunday's Pirates game, also at home, is what's left, and a 3.19 xERA backs the call. Start him Sunday.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Angels — week of 7/27
Walbert Ureña
Monday's Astros game at home already happened. Sunday's Brewers game, also at home, is the only one left on his week, with a 3.26 xERA on the season. Start him Sunday at home.
STREAKPIT @ CIN
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Reds have gone under in four straight, real scoring at 6.3 runs a game against lines that had been near 10.4. Tonight's number comes down to 7.5 and still sits above that recent pace.
P final total 15 vs 7.5
STREAKDET @ OAK
OAK games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Athletics have gone under in four straight, 6.5 runs a game against lines near 9. Tonight's number jumps to 10.5 though — the biggest gap between the recent pace and the actual line on this list.
P final total 14 vs 10.5
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ HOU
Christian Walker vs Nathan Eovaldi: .429
Walker's 6-for-14 with two homers lifetime against Eovaldi, a .429 mark whenever they've faced off. He's cold right now otherwise, .649 OPS over his last 15 days, but this particular matchup has a history of working out for him.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
STARTER FORMMIN @ SEA
Bryce Miller: 6.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
Miller's last three starts have gone sideways — 6.19 ERA, WHIP nearly double his season number. That's a real recent slide, not a blip.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
STREAKTEX @ HOU
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers have cleared the over four times running, 9.3 combined runs a game against a 7.5 average line. Pairs with Texas being 6-2 in Eovaldi's starts lately — they're winning by scoring, not by shutting teams down.
P final total 13 vs 8
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Gerrit Cole
Same road trip as Fried, a day behind him — White Sox already played Tuesday, Cubs still ahead on Sunday. One start left to plan for, at a 3.29 xERA. Start him Sunday.
COOLING OFFWSH @ ATL
Mauricio Dubon: .477 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Foster Griffin
Dubon's cold — .477 OPS over his last 15 days against a .704 season mark. He also draws his weaker side tonight, a .662 mark against lefties like Griffin, so nothing about the matchup helps him out of it.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
STREAKMIL @ LAA
LAA have lost 4 straight
Angels have dropped four straight and been outscored by seven runs over the skid, 3-6 in their last nine. A team playing from behind more nights than not right now.
P team lost 6-2
COOLING OFFNYY @ CHC
Trent Grisham: .385 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
Grisham's cold, a .385 OPS over his last 15 days against a .702 season mark. He does get his better side tonight though — a .717 mark against lefties like Imanaga — so there's at least a favorable matchup underneath the slump.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONPIT @ CIN
Hunter Greene: 7.06 ERA vs 4.69 xERA
Greene's ERA is two runs worse than his xERA, and the stuff underneath explains why that should close — 12 strikeouts per nine, a 5.2% barrel rate, opponents hitting under their expected average against him. Reads like bad innings bunching up more than a pitcher getting hit hard all night.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
TWO STARTSDetroit Tigers — week of 7/27
Keider Montero
Monday's home start against the Orioles already happened. Sunday sends him to the Athletics for the only game left this week, carrying a 3.48 xERA and a stream tag. Streamer — don't lock in the Athletics start blind, size it up again closer to Sunday.
HEAT CHECKDET @ OAK
Jeff McNeil: 1.033 OPS in Last 15 Days
McNeil's at a 1.033 OPS over his last 15 days, way up from a .640 season mark that's been a down year for him. His total bases number tonight sits at 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONMIL @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.34 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Johnson's gap between ERA and xERA is the widest of any starter here, but it's not from getting barreled — 34.6% hard-hit, 8.1% barrel rate, both reasonable. The 1.54 WHIP is the real issue, too many free baserunners for how well he's actually being hit.
P 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
SITUATIONALPHI @ BAL
BAL's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Grant Wolfram (2.3) and Yennier Cano (2). PHI's pen has thrown 9.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-6
STARTER FORMNYY @ CHC
Shota Imanaga: 0.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Imanaga's allowed one earned run in his last 18 innings. Completely different pitcher than the 3.72 season number says right now.
P 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMMIN @ SEA
Zebby Matthews: 8.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Matthews has been rough his last three out — 14 earned runs in 15 innings, WHIP up nearly 60 points from his season mark. A real slide.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ COL
Jac Caglianone
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .768 OPS, bats 3rd.
HEAT CHECKKC @ COL
Salvador Perez: .881 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perez is at an .881 OPS over his last 15 days, up more than 250 points from his .628 season mark. Fifteen homers already this year, and his total-bases line tonight sits at just 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWDET @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.45 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 6.45 ERA against a 4.05 expected ERA (2.4 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .246 vs .233 expected.
HEAT CHECKPIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: 1.089 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.089 OPS versus .731 for the season, 0.358 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKARI @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .909 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a .909 OPS versus .653 for the season, 0.256 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Starts tonight for SF — 5.83 xERA behind a 4.6 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ COL
Michael Massey
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .727 OPS, bats 5th.
CUT LISTMIN tonight
Alan Roden
Still hitting 6th for MIN — 0.451 OPS, 0.189 AVG from the 6-hole.
TOMORROWDET @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.45 ERA vs 4.06 xERA
Perkins' ERA is running 2.4 runs ahead of his xERA, and neither the hard-hit rate nor the barrel rate looks alarming. A handful of extra hits falling in explains most of it — the process reads better than the line.
REGRESSIONCHW @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.46 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Martinez's ERA is almost two runs better than his xERA, and a 5.1 strikeout rate doesn't leave much margin for that gap to hold. Worth remembering against Tampa's 6-1 record in his starts — real number, shakier process underneath it.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ COL
Lane Thomas
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .716 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSKC @ COL
Isaac Collins
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .708 OPS, bats 6th.
SITUATIONALSF @ SD
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Miller (3) and Griffin Canning (3) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-7
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds like to run — Henry Davis (48% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis throws out 48% of runners who try him, one of the better marks around, and Cincinnati still runs plenty as a team, 0.7 steals a game. Good luck to whoever's on base against that combination tonight.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 0 bases
TOMORROWMIA @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.43 ERA vs 4.56 xERA
Thornton's ERA-xERA gap is one of the widest here, paired with a 44.4% hard-hit rate — loud contact and a sparkling average against rarely coexist for long. Tomorrow reads like a candidate for results catching down to the contact quality.
TOMORROWMIA @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.43 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 2.43 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (2.12 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .196 vs .265 expected.
COOLING OFFPIT @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .558 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
JJ Bleday's .558 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .800 season mark, down 0.242. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his stronger side: a .824 OPS vs RHP across 209 AB.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONPHI @ BAL
Andrew Painter: 7.06 ERA vs 5.21 xERA
Painter's ERA is 7.06 against a 5.21 expected mark, a run and a half of separation. Opponents are hitting .316 against a .272 expected — the results have been worse than the quality of contact he's actually allowing, even before you factor in that 1-7 team record.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
HEAT CHECKNYY @ CHC
Alex Bregman: .915 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .915 OPS spans the last 15 days (50 PA) against a .722 season baseline, a 0.193 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .279 AVG vs .227 xBA
Moniak's hitting .279 this year against a .227 expected average on the same contact — a 52-point gap. His wOBA runs the same way, .373 against a .304 expected mark, so he's been getting more out of his contact than Statcast says he should.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONSTL @ TOR
Kyle Leahy: 3.55 ERA vs 5.22 xERA
Leahy's ERA is nearly two runs better than his xERA, and hitters are squaring him up on half their batted balls with a 10.9% barrel rate. That kind of contact usually shows up on the scoreboard eventually.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
CLOSER WATCHMIL @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHKC @ COL
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHNYY @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
BALLPARKMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.10 at Citi Field
Peralta's been notably better at Citi Field than on the road, 4.10 against 6.31. His last three starts have been bad everywhere regardless of ballpark though, so recent form matters more than the split tonight.
STARTER FORMMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
Whatever's going on with Peralta right now, it's been bad everywhere — 11 earned runs in 13.7 innings his last three out. That overrides the home park split for me tonight.
REGRESSIONPIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez: .277 AVG vs .227 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .277 average comes against a .227 expected (xBA) on 159 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .432 against a .367 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
SITUATIONALDET @ OAK
DET's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Jacob Waguespack (3.7) and Drew Anderson (3) carried the load. OAK's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 13-1
BATTER VS ARMWSH @ ATL
Luis Garcia Jr. vs Bryce Elder: .455
Garcia's 5-for-11 lifetime against Elder, a .455 mark in a small sample. He's also swinging a hot bat right now at .951 OPS over his last 15 days, so the recent form and the history are pointing the same direction tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
BATTER VS ARMPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds vs Hunter Greene: .313
Reynolds is 5-for-16 with a homer lifetime against Greene, a .313 mark in their history. He's cold right now — .526 OPS over his last 15 days — and Greene's stuff has actually been better than his 7.06 ERA suggests, so this one leans tougher than the history says.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 7/31
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Tyler Stephenson's vs. Right line (.760 OPS, 206 AB) sits well above his .613 mark the other way (53 AB). Tonight's starter Paul Skenes throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .257 AVG vs .300 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .257 against a .300 expected average (xBA) over 475 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .300 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Kyle Leahy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.22 xERA behind a 3.55 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
REGRESSIONDET @ OAK
Jeffrey Springs: 6.23 ERA vs 4.88 xERA
Springs' ERA is running over a run worse than his xERA — a .271 average against versus a .254 expected mark says balls have found grass more than the contact quality suggests they should. Points toward better results ahead, not worse.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
STARTER FORMMIL @ LAA
Shane Drohan: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Drohan's last three outings have run nearly two runs over his season ERA, 11 earned runs across 18.3 innings. Recent form's trending the wrong way.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
STARTER FORMKC @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 6.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sugano's last three starts have already delivered the correction his season-long gap pointed to — 6.48 ERA in that stretch, well worse than his 4.69 mark.
P 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
STARTER FORMSTL @ TOR
Kyle Leahy: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Leahy's a different pitcher than his 3.55 season ERA suggests — three earned runs in his last 15 innings, WHIP down near 0.73. That's a real hot stretch, not a mirage.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
STARTER FORMCHW @ TB
Nick Martinez: 0.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
One earned run in his last 13 innings. A 0.69 ERA and a WHIP under 0.90 — Martinez is locked in right now, whatever his season line says.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ OAK
Casey Mize
Streamer vs OAK — 3.08 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .845 OPS, bats 3rd.
COOLING OFFPIT @ CIN
Noelvi Marte: .321 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Noelvi Marte's .321 OPS over the last 15 days (28 PA) trails his .570 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his stronger side: a .572 OPS vs RHP across 114 AB.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
REGRESSIONMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.84 xERA
Zoomed out to the full season, Peralta's process still looks fine — 8.9 strikeouts per nine, just a 5.2% barrel rate — with the ERA gap tracing to balls finding grass more than bad stuff. Doesn't erase how ugly the last three starts have looked, but the season shape is better than the recent line.
RETURN WATCHNYM — return listed 8/2
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
REGRESSIONWSH @ ATL
Foster Griffin: 2.76 ERA vs 3.92 xERA
Griffin's ERA is more than a run better than his xERA, and a .217 average against versus a .246 expected mark is a lot of separation to keep holding onto. Worth pairing with that 7-0 team record — great number, a little fortunate underneath it.
P 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.623 OPS, 0.237 AVG from the 2-hole.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.628 OPS, 0.212 AVG from the 4-hole.
RUNNING GAMEKC @ COL
Colorado Rockies like to run — Carter Jensen (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Colorado runs everywhere it can — 0.7 steals a game — but Carter Jensen has caught 40% of basestealers this year, well above league average. If they test him tonight, it's strength against strength, not a free bag.
P Colorado Rockies stole 0 bases
CLOSER WATCHARI @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
CUT LISTTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.635 OPS, 0.202 AVG from the 4-hole.
CLOSER WATCHNYY @ CHC
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 22 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
TOMORROWMIA @ NYM
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 3.52 ERA against a 4.71 expected ERA (1.19 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .241 vs .257 expected.
SITUATIONALSTL @ TOR
No off day for STL in 6 days
Cardinals haven't had a day off in six days while Toronto got one yesterday. That kind of stretch tends to show up in bullpen availability first — lines up with three St. Louis relievers already worked back-to-back.
P flagged side lost 1-3
TOMORROWMIA @ NYM
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.72 xERA
Phillips is outperforming his xERA by over a run, and a 42.8% hard-hit rate is the number that stands out — more loud contact allowed than the ERA lets on, even if the barrel rate's kept the damage contained so far.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ NYM
Heriberto Hernandez
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .788 OPS, bats 6th.
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
CLOSER WATCHPHI @ BAL
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ TOR
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 23 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ TOR
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ NYM
Xavier Edwards
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .775 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .774 OPS, bats 4th.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ LAA
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs LAA — 3.32 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
TOMORROWMIL @ LAA
José Soriano: 3.29 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Soriano's gap is real but modest, a run better than his xERA with hard-hit and barrel rates both sitting in the middle of the pack. Less urgent than the other regression cases on tonight's board.
TOMORROWMIL @ LAA
José Soriano: 3.29 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.29 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.05 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .242 expected.
CUT LISTNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Still hitting 4th for NYY — 0.661 OPS, 0.232 AVG from the 4-hole.
FIRST INNINGMIA @ NYM
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ NYM
Both sides have been quiet early here, first-inning runs in just 3 of 10 games apiece. Peralta's own first-inning number backs it up at .226 against; Junk's a bit shakier at .264.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
FIRST INNINGSF @ SD
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of SF @ SD
Same story on the other coast — both clubs scoring first-inning runs in only 3 of their last 10. The number's basically a coin flip, so the market's not giving much of an edge either way.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
CUT LISTPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.653 OPS, 0.225 AVG from the 4-hole.
BATTER VS ARMWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams vs Bryce Elder: .400
CJ Abrams has owned Bryce Elder — 6-for-15, a .904 OPS across their history — and he's riding a 1.280 OPS over his last 15 games into tonight's rematch. History and current form are pointing the same direction.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 13%
Seattle's already running at a good clip, 80 steals on the season, and Jeffers has caught just five of forty base-stealers. Every incentive says they keep testing him tonight.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
RUNNING GAMESF @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Drew Cavanaugh has caught just 15%
Drew Cavanaugh is throwing out just 15% of basestealers this season, 3-for-20, and San Diego already runs 1.3 times a game. That's about as green a light as this sport hands out.
P San Diego Padres stole 2 bases
CUT LISTBAL tonight
Dylan Beavers
Still hitting 1th for BAL — 0.668 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 1-hole.
TOMORROWMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser: 4.71 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Gasser's the rare arm running worse than his process says he should — 30.4% hard-hit, 6.4% barrel rate, both strong marks that don't match a 4.71 ERA. Reads like a handful of bad innings more than a real problem.
TOMORROWMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser: 4.71 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAA. A 4.71 ERA against a 3.75 expected ERA (0.96 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .237 expected.
BALLPARKSTL @ TOR
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 3.00 ERA
Cease's road number is actually the better one here — 1.92 ERA away from Rogers Centre against 3.00 at home, even though .207 against at home is still plenty good on its own.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
TOMORROWWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo López: 3.64 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 3.64 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .245 vs .256 expected.
TOMORROWWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo López: 3.64 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
López's gap is one of the smaller ones in this group, and the contact numbers back it up as mostly earned — 36.4% hard-hit, 7.7% barrel rate. Not much reason to expect a big swing from this one.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/5
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/5 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
TOMORROWPIT @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.85 ERA vs 4.75 xERA
Abbott's got the smallest ERA-xERA gap in the whole group — results and process are already lined up, nothing here to project forward either direction.
TOMORROWPIT @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.85 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 3.85 ERA against a 4.74 expected ERA (0.89 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .243 vs .258 expected.
FIRST INNINGMIN @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Mariners haven't scored in the first in ten straight games, and Miller's own first-inning number backs it up at .158 against. Matthews has been hit early on the other side though, .288 against in the first — this one's more about Seattle's bats than Minnesota's.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGPIT @ CIN
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pirates haven't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games. Skenes has been part of that story from the other side too, .200 against him in the first this season — early runs look like the tougher way to go tonight.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FANTASY PICKUPSNYY @ CHC
Shota Imanaga
Streamer vs NYY — 3.65 xERA · 8.4 K/9 · 1.1 WHIP.
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
FANTASY PICKUPSWSH @ ATL
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs ATL — 3.92 xERA · 8.2 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
CUT LISTCHC tonight
Nico Hoerner
Still hitting 6th for CHC — 0.670 OPS, 0.257 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Eugenio Suarez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.666 OPS, 0.202 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTNYY tonight
Anthony Volpe
Still hitting 6th for NYY — 0.668 OPS, 0.248 AVG from the 6-hole.
FIRST INNINGKC @ COL
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Royals have managed one first-inning run in their last ten games. Sugano's actually been hit early himself this season, .333 against in the first, so Kansas City's cold start is doing more work here than anything he's bringing.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120
MLB · 4-1
L
Cubs ML -163
MLB · 2-0
L
Pirates ML -132
MLB · 7-8
L
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline -142
MLB · 6-1
W
Orioles ML -117
MLB · 4-6
W
Blue Jays ML -193
MLB · 1-3
W
Marlins ML +100
MLB · 5-2
L
Nationals ML +103
MLB · 2-6
W
Houston Astros ML -131
MLB · 2-11
L
Kansas City Royals ML -114
MLB · 1-3
W
Detroit Tigers ML -143
MLB · 13-1
W
San Diego Padres ML -156
MLB · 0-7
L
Mariners ML -164
MLB · 5-3
W
Brewers ML -175
MLB · 6-2
W
Boston Red Sox ML +113
MLB · 9-4

Props

L
Andrew Painter · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Andruw Monasterio · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 3
W
Brandon Young · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 5
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Bryce Miller · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 3
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 7
L
Chase DeLauter · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Chase Meidroth · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Christian Yelich · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Coby Mayo · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Corbin Carroll · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Daulton Varsho · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Dylan Cease · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 7
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Foster Griffin · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 16
L
Francisco Alvarez · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Francisco Lindor · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 1
L
Jake Burger · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Jeffrey Springs · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Jo Adell · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Kodai Senga · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 3
W
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Michael Busch · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Michael Wacha · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 7
W
Miguel Vargas · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 2
W
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 2
W
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 5
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Ryan Waldschmidt · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 2
W
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Shane Drohan · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 4
W
Spencer Jones · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Steven Kwan · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 2
W
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Tyler Soderstrom · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 0
W
Vaughn Grissom · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 2
L
Vaughn Grissom · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 4
W
Zebby Matthews · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 2