Daily archive

2026-07-31

The stored Gary board for Fri, Jul 31. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB2:20 PM

Yankees @ Cubs

**Gary's Take** First pitch is early afternoon at Wrigley, and the wind is blowing across the field instead of out toward the street, so nothing's flying out today. The Yankees come in off two straight walk-off losses on the other side of town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in two days, and their lineup card has been getting shorter all month. The Cubs are home after a winning road trip with Bregman swinging like it's the playoffs. I'm taking Chicago to win straight up, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not asking for more than that. Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't gotten through six innings in any of his last six starts — his best was a hair under six, and his last one was three innings and six runs in Philadelphia. He's already been skipped in the rotation and used in relief this month, which tells you what his own club thinks. Lefty hitters have hammered him, with double-digit home runs off him, and Counsell's lineup runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. Warren's sinker — which he throws a lot — gets hit hard, and Crow-Armstrong absolutely crushes that pitch, with three homers in the last week and the best contact of anyone on either team. So when Warren exits in the fifth, New York hands the ball to a bullpen that's been carrying a heavy load for three straight days, with Cruz up on back-to-back nights and Chivilli piling up pitches. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter is a swing-and-miss weapon, and it runs right into the Yankees' lefties in Rice, Grisham and Jones — and Grisham has been ice cold for two weeks. Now, here's why I'm not laying the bigger number. Imanaga gives up fly balls and has been noticeably worse at Wrigley than on the road, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball over the fence — Goldschmidt has a pile of homers off lefties and he's hitting leadoff. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; more than a dozen different guys have closed a game for them this year. And a chunk of the Cubs' hot stretch is soft contact finding grass — Hoerner and Ramirez are both scorching over the last two weeks without a single hard-hit ball between them. That's a team that wins by two, not by eight, especially with the wind knocking balls down. So I want the win, not the margin. This price is no bargain and I won't pretend it is, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to come from behind can't score.

Cubs ML-163

CONF

58%

MLB6:10 PM

Pirates @ Reds

Perfect weather down by the river, hot afternoon, and a ballpark where Pittsburgh just walked one off against a team most people figure is about to start trading players away. Elly De La Cruz was all over the field last night — three doubles, two stolen bases — and Cincinnati still barely scored. That tells you what you need to know about this series. Now Pittsburgh hands the ball to Paul Skenes, and Cincinnati counters with a guy making just his fifth start since doctors cleaned out his elbow back in the spring. Hunter Greene still throws hard and his slider is about as tough to hit as anybody's. It's everything else I'm betting against. Over his last four starts hitters have been crushing the ball off him, and he lets a lot of it go in the air — in a park that eats fly-ball pitchers alive. His swing-and-miss has dropped every single time out. Take away the one gem against the Cubs and he's been giving up runs by the bucket. Skenes is the opposite. His earned-run number on the board is worse than how he's actually pitched, hitters aren't doing much of anything against him, and Cincinnati doesn't hit as a team to begin with. Last start he struck out eleven and hitters swung through him constantly. Whatever people were worried about with his velocity in June, nobody's touching him now. The only reason this price is short is Pittsburgh's lineup, and that's fair. Reynolds is in a deep slump, O'Hearn's worse, Cruz and Horwitz have been out so long nobody accounts for them, and this group barely scores over the last ten games. But Brandon Lowe is locked in — he put one deep into the right-field seats off this same club last night — Nick Gonzales is swinging it well, and I don't need a big number, I need three runs. The other piece is the late innings. Cincinnati burned three relievers in one night to steal the opener, two more arms are hurt, and if Greene only gives them five, their manager is going back to a bullpen he already drained. Pittsburgh's best arms mostly rested. I'll pay the small price to get the better pitcher.

Pirates ML-132

CONF

62%

MLB7:05 PM

Phillies @ Orioles

Friday night in Baltimore, warm and clear, and it's the trade deadline. Two teams showing up from opposite ends of a rough summer — the Orioles just pulled off their biggest comeback in nearly two decades, while the Phillies got swept in Miami and have won just twice in their last ten. All morning the betting line had Baltimore as a slight favorite with no Philadelphia starter announced. Then the Phillies called up Andrew Painter from the minors and sent Brian Keller down, and the price barely moved. That right there is the whole thing for me. Painter throws hard but has no idea where it's going. Before Philadelphia demoted him in mid-June, he made three starts and couldn't get out of the fifth in any of them — a pile of runs and a bunch of homers in very few innings. His fastball is fast and hitters are crushing it anyway, because straight heat with nothing to set it up is just batting practice. Lefties in particular have hammered him, and Baltimore is running a lineup full of them tonight — Beavers, Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, with Taveras hitting from that side too. Brandon Young is the opposite kind of pitcher: solid all season, a slider hitters swing through half the time, and two straight starts of one-run ball against Houston and Atlanta. Yes, six weeks in the minors can fix a young arm, and Painter has the talent for it to have worked. But that's hoping, not knowing, and I don't pay full price for hope. I'll be honest about what could beat me. Philadelphia's relievers are fresh off a day off Thursday, Duran hasn't pitched in days, and Mattingly will yank his starter at the first sign of trouble with the team scuffling. Baltimore's own bats aren't much — Henderson and Ward have both been ice cold for two weeks — and this club loses way more close games than it wins. But the Philadelphia lineup that's supposed to punish a shaky starter has barely scored during this ten-game slide, Harper is swinging at everything, and Marsh can't buy a hit. The mismatch between these two starters is the biggest gap I see on the whole board tonight, and the market is charging almost nothing for it. I'm taking the Orioles to win.

Orioles ML-117

CONF

63%

MLB7:07 PM

Cardinals @ Blue Jays

It's deadline day in Toronto, first pitch just after seven, and both teams have one eye on their phones waiting to see who gets traded. Neither club is going anywhere — Toronto's dead last in their division and well under .500, and St. Louis has lost seven of their last ten while openly trying to sell off pitchers. But the lopsided part of this game is the two starters: Dylan Cease against Kyle Leahy. The betting market already knows it. Toronto opened as a solid favorite this morning and the price has climbed since, so nobody's pretending this is a coin flip. Leahy's recent numbers look untouchable — barely any runs allowed over his last six starts. But the way he's getting there doesn't hold up. Hitters are absolutely crushing the ball against him, his fastball is getting hammered, and lefties in particular have been teeing off with a bunch of home runs. Toronto runs out four left-handed bats — Lukes, Varsho, Sánchez and Giménez. None of them are big boppers, but that's four cracks a night at a fastball guys keep squaring up, in a ballpark with the wind blowing out to center. He's been getting away with hard contact for six weeks, and that kind of luck runs out. On the other side, it's even simpler: the Cardinals have barely been scoring lately and now they have to figure out a slider that misses bats about as often as any pitch in baseball. Walker, Wetherholt and Nootbaar are all mired in bad slumps. Burleson is the one guy in their lineup swinging it well and in a matchup he likes. What really settles it for me is the late innings. Four of the Cardinals' relievers all pitched Wednesday and Thursday — Soriano especially has thrown a ton of pitches in two days — and this is the first night of a six-game road trip with no day off first. Leahy's on a pitch limit and hasn't gotten deep into a game all summer, so St. Louis needs about three innings tonight from a bullpen that's already gassed. Toronto was off yesterday, only used two relievers in their last game, and has Varland pitching lights out with a manager who'll let him go two innings without a second thought. That's a real gap late in what should be a low-scoring game, and I don't need Guerrero's hamstring news to make it true. The price isn't cheap — the move already happened, no bargain left. I'm paying it anyway.

Blue Jays ML-193

CONF

62%

MLB7:10 PM

Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Deadline day in Cleveland, first pitch a little after seven, and the flags at the ballpark are blowing straight in from center — that means fly balls die out there tonight. The Guardians just got home from a road trip that almost sank them. They lost six of seven through Tampa and Cincinnati, got shut out three times in the middle of it, and only saved face by winning the rubber game against the Reds on Wednesday. Arizona shows up having won two in a row in Pittsburgh, winners of six of their last ten, with a lineup that's been hanging big innings on people. The betting market looked at the two starting pitchers, made Cleveland a pretty heavy favorite, and then pushed that price even further in Cleveland's direction as the morning went on. I'm going the other way. I'm not going to pretend Mitch Bratt is good — his run prevention has been ugly and he puts way too many guys on base, and Tanner Bibee is the real, established starter here. But here's the thing: the way you beat Bratt is by hitting the ball over the fence. He's given up a bunch of homers in very few innings, he lives in the air, and hitters square him up a lot. Tonight he faces a Cleveland team that barely homers, does its damage on the ground and with its legs, and has to play in a wind that knocks balls down in center. Cleveland's way to score is stringing hits together with runners on — and that's exactly the thing this offense can't do. They're hitting for a low average, scoring barely three and a half runs a night over the last two weeks, and their two most important spots with men in scoring position have been close to automatic outs. Five of the nine guys in tonight's lineup are ice cold: Ángel Martínez and David Fry are both in the middle of long hitless stretches, and Hoskins has barely scratched out a hit in a couple weeks. And Bibee isn't the wall his numbers suggest — most of his pitches are getting hit hard, he's allowing loud contact at a heavy clip, and the underlying stuff says he should be giving up meaningfully more runs than he has. Carroll has already handled him, with hits in half his career at-bats against him. Arizona is just the better offense right now, and it's not close — they're scoring nearly six a game over the past two weeks to Cleveland's three and a half. Carroll is absolutely crushing the ball, hitting it hard and squaring it up over and over, and his batting average simply hasn't caught up to how well he's hitting. Moreno is scorching with a pile of runs driven in over the last two weeks. Kepler, Waldschmidt and Del Castillo are all swinging it too. And the thing that was actively costing this team games got fixed two days ago: Sewald is out of the closer's role, and Lovullo is now mixing and matching late with García, Morillo, Loaisiga and Clarke — all four of them have been excellent. Both bullpens had yesterday off, so nobody's gassed. I'm getting paid a plus price to take the team playing better baseball, with the hotter bats, against a beatable starter, on a night when the wind erases the one thing that could actually hurt me. Give me the Diamondbacks to win.

Arizona Diamondbacks ML+120

CONF

62%

MLB7:10 PM

White Sox @ Rays

It's deadline day at the Trop, both teams sitting in first place, and this dome has been eating home runs alive for the last month. Nick Martinez versus Erick Fedde tonight, and the price moved on Tampa this morning — bettors kept pushing it up. Two clubs nobody expected to be here, and here they both are. This game gets decided in the middle innings, not the early ones. Chicago went twelve innings Wednesday and eleven Thursday, two walk-off finishes, then a day game, then a flight to Florida. Murphy and Hudson both threw those two nights. Hicks pitched two of the last three. Newcomb, Richards, Taylor, Domínguez all used up. That's a mountain of relief work in three days out of eight arms, and now the ball goes to a starter who hasn't gotten deep in any of his last six outings and gave up three home runs in a short start against Houston last week. Fedde is a five-inning guy on a good day, and this doesn't look like a good day. Martinez, on the other hand, has gone about six every time out in his last six and has barely allowed any runs across the whole stretch. One dugout needs three innings from its bullpen tonight. The other needs five, from guys who've been standing up three days running. The argument against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Martinez doesn't miss many bats, and he's been giving up harder contact than his run prevention suggests. Tampa's hitters are in a real slump too, barely scoring the last five games, with Díaz and Aranda both cold for two weeks. That's exactly why this price is what it is instead of much steeper. But the Rays have been outstanding at home all year, they swept Chicago in April and scored plenty doing it, and this ballpark plays right into the hands of a guy who throws strikes with a changeup nobody can square up. Give me the team that has to cover three innings over the team that has to cover five, on tired legs, on night one of a road trip. Tampa Bay, moneyline.

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline-142

CONF

63%

MLB7:10 PM

Marlins @ Mets

It's deadline day at the Mets' park, and New York swapped out their starting pitcher before anyone even loosened up. Freddy Peralta was supposed to have this one. Instead he's sitting by a phone waiting to find out where he's playing next, and Kodai Senga is heading to the mound at a place that's given him fits all year. That's the whole game. Everything else is window dressing. Senga hasn't pitched in the majors in over a month. He's made only a handful of starts this season, never got deep into any of them, usually out before the middle innings, and he's been noticeably worse at home than on the road. I don't think he's finished — that splitter of his still makes hitters look silly, and most pitchers would give up a year's pay for it — but a guy coming off a back injury with over a month of rust and no command is a three-inning guy on his best day. So New York needs most of the game out of a bullpen that just traded away an arm this morning, lost Cionel Pérez to a forearm injury, and has already used Devin Williams two nights in a row. They're patching this together with minor leaguers while the front office tries to sell off anything not nailed down. Miami isn't playing great either, and I won't pretend they are. Their bats have been cold for a couple weeks, and Janson Junk really struggles against lefty hitters — and this Mets lineup, with Ewing, Benge, Young, Baty, plus Lindor and Polanco batting from that side, is built to take advantage. That's why I'm not making this a big play. But Junk should get you into the middle innings, there are fresh arms behind him, and he's throwing in front of a crowd of scouts with his own future on the line. The betting line barely budged when the Mets swapped pitchers. That's not nearly enough. At this price I'll take the team that actually knows who's pitching the middle of the game.

Marlins ML+100

CONF

64%

MLB7:15 PM

Nationals @ Braves

**Gary's Take** Friday night in Atlanta, both teams staring down the trade deadline, and this series already gave us a game where the Braves clawed back from three runs down to win late. The oddsmakers basically call this a toss-up — Washington a hair cheaper, Atlanta a hair more expensive, right about where it sat this morning. When the price is that close, you find out whether the market is betting on the teams or the guys on the mound. Tonight those two things disagree. It starts with the starters, because that's the whole game. Foster Griffin has been going deep — seven-plus innings in four of his last six, and he hasn't been yanked early since June. He's a lefty walking into a lineup that keeps its best hitters on that side, with Baldwin, Olson and Harris stacked through the middle, and lefties have been close to helpless against him all year. Bryce Elder is the opposite story. He's been giving up home runs in bunches over his last six starts, hasn't gotten out of the fourth in half of them, and he's still living down a rough June. His problem is right-handed bats, and Washington's righties — Crews, House and Young — are the ones squaring balls up right now, with the wind blowing out to left in 89-degree heat. This is a Nationals team scoring in bunches over the last two weeks that already hit three out of this park last night. What seals it is what comes after the starters. Walt Weiss said it himself: his rotation gives him about five innings, and he'll go get a guy in the fifth if he needs to. He already used Lee, Young, Mederos and Iglesias last night, most of them on back-to-back days. If Elder only gives him four, Atlanta is asking tired arms for more outs than they want. Washington's bullpen is the weak link here, no argument, and their defense hands over outs nobody else does — but Griffin is the reason that bullpen stays in the chair. And yes, he's been beating his contact all season and a correction shows up eventually. I'm just not paying extra to find out if it's tonight. Even money for the guy who goes deeper, the better matchup against those bats, and a team that wins on the road is the bet.

Nationals ML+103

CONF

64%

MLB8:15 PM

Rangers @ Astros

This is the last time these two see each other this year, and it lands on deadline day with both of them fighting over first place in the West, separated by almost nothing. Houston shows up hot — they've won nearly every game in their last stretch and have climbed all the way back to even after being buried earlier in the year. This is a team that decided midsummer it wasn't finished. Texas comes in off two rough nights in Tampa where the bats barely showed up. I'm laying a small price with the Astros. Eovaldi is the whole reason the number isn't higher, and he's also the reason I want Houston. Nobody has seen him more than this lineup has, and the three guys hitting in the heart of the order have taken him deep a bunch of times between them — Altuve especially, but Alvarez and Walker have gotten him too, and in very few chances. His fastball has been getting hammered all year, which is why he barely throws it anymore; the splitter and the curve are what's keeping his numbers respectable. When he's been forced to challenge hitters with the hard stuff lately, balls have flown out — in Atlanta and again against Detroit. Now put that in a ballpark with a short porch in left, a closed roof and heavy, still air, against a lineup full of right-handed pull hitters. On the other side, Texas is running a weak bottom of the order into a Houston arm throwing serious heat that hitters have had almost no success against, with Seager batting third on his very first night back after a month away and Jung still hurt. That offense has barely scored on this trip. The part I like best is the late innings. Texas is deep into a long road trip with no day off, has burned through most of its bullpen in three days, just lost the guy who ate innings for them yesterday, and has a pile of relievers already unavailable. Houston was home resting, and Hader barely threw. The fair argument against me is Brown — his control has wobbled in a couple of starts this month and he hasn't logged many innings this season, so Espada is going to the pen early no matter what. I'll take that trade every time: fresher arms at the back, hotter bats, the ballpark, home field, and one win from owning the tiebreaker in a race this tight. The price is fair, not a steal, and I'm happy to pay it.

Houston Astros ML-131

CONF

63%

MLB8:40 PM

Royals @ Rockies

It's the night before the trade deadline, we're up in the thin mountain air, and the guy Colorado is starting might not even be on the team by Monday. Two teams with nothing left to play for, in a ballpark that punishes pitchers anyway. This game opened as a true toss-up and the money has slowly leaned toward Kansas City. I'm taking the Royals to win the game straight up. Start with Colorado's starter. Tomoyuki Sugano's win-loss record and his earned run average look fine on the surface, but everything underneath is ugly — hitters are squaring him up hard and often. He's given up two home runs in each of his last three starts, and lefty hitters absolutely tee off on him. Kansas City is running out five left-handed bats plus two switch-hitters, so seven of the nine guys in the lineup get the good side of that matchup. His fastball and sinker barely miss bats and get hit hard. The one pitch he trusts is his splitter, and the splitter is exactly the kind of pitch that stops diving in this thin air. Take that away and he's just throwing hittable strikes and hoping. And these Royals have been hitting the ball hard lately — Jensen, Caglianone, Massey and Perez have all been crushing it — they just haven't had much to show for it, because they were doing it in Detroit and Minneapolis. Those same swings travel a lot farther here. On the other side is Michael Wacha, who has worked deep into games in seven of his last eight starts, and his changeup is the exact pitch that gives Colorado's top-of-the-order guys fits — Moniak and McCarthy have basically no chance against it. He handles lefties well, doesn't give up much hard contact, and every inning he covers is an inning Kansas City doesn't have to hand to a tired bullpen after Thursday night. I hear the other side: the Royals have been bad on the road, this is late in a long road trip, and they're missing Witt and Pasquantino with backups filling in. That's fair, and it's why this is priced as a coin flip instead of a favorite. But that's old news already baked into the price, while Colorado has lost twelve of their last sixteen, owns the worst record in baseball, and is handing the ball to a rental starter in front of a bullpen that's been getting lit up all year. At barely more than even money, I'll take the better pitcher and the matchup edge and live with the altitude.

Kansas City Royals ML-114

CONF

61%

MLB9:38 PM

Brewers @ Angels

It's deadline day in Anaheim, warm night, and the wind is blowing out toward center. The best team in their division comes to town against a club that's buried in the standings and near the bottom of the league. The problem is everybody's been piling on Milwaukee all day — the price opened cheap this morning and by the time I'm getting in, it's gotten a lot more expensive. I don't love that, and I'll say it straight up: I'm paying extra for a team everyone already jumped on. I'm paying it because of the guy on the mound for the Angels, Ryan Johnson. He's got three pitches I genuinely respect — they miss bats and keep hitters uncomfortable. But then there's his sinker, which he leans on a lot, and hitters are absolutely tattooing it. That's not bad luck, that's a pitch getting crushed. And Milwaukee's lineup is stacked with lefty bats — Turang, Yelich, Bauers, Mitchell, Hamilton, plus Lara who can hit from either side — against a righty who's been getting hammered by left-handed hitters and giving up a bunch of homers to them. Turang and Bauers in particular feast on exactly the pitch he keeps throwing. Johnson also barely gets through five innings, which hands the middle of the game to a bullpen where Suter, Yates and Farris all pitched the last two times out — and Farris is the one who blew the sixth on Wednesday. The other side of it is that the Angels have to score, and lately they just don't. They've barely been scratching out runs the last two weeks, Trout's been cold at home, and Neto, Soler and Guzman are all slumping. Now they face Drohan, a lefty who's been going deep into games with a fastball and a slider that both miss bats. Anaheim will load up on righty hitters against him, which is the right move — that's where he gets hurt, and with the wind blowing out, a ball can leave. So it's not nothing. But the Angels need Johnson to repeat that great night he had in Baltimore back in June, and they need a gassed bullpen to hold up. Milwaukee just has to be the better team, which they've been all season, especially away from home. I'll take them and swallow the price.

Brewers ML-175

CONF

62%

MLB9:40 PM

Tigers @ Athletics

It's a hundred degrees in West Sacramento, the wind is blowing out toward center, and Detroit spent the whole morning taking its own pitching plan apart. Casey Mize got pulled from the start — nothing wrong with him, they're just protecting him with the trade deadline three days away. Skubal's name is in every trade rumor going. So tonight Detroit gives the ball to Tyler Holton for a hitter or two and then runs relievers out there all night. Here's what caught my eye: the price on Detroit went the wrong way. They were cheaper to bet this morning, and once the Mize news came out, people bet them even harder. When a team loses its starter and the money still piles onto that team, somebody knows something the headline doesn't say. What they're looking at is Jeffrey Springs on the other side. This isn't Mize against Springs anymore — it's Detroit's whole bullpen against Springs and whoever Oakland has behind him, and those aren't the same problem. Detroit's relievers have been good all year and they had yesterday off; nobody's thrown since Wednesday. Springs has been getting hit hard, he only got four outs his last time out before his hip started bothering him, and right-handed hitters have crushed him — plenty of home runs and big numbers. Detroit is starting six righties tonight. He faced this same group on July 8 and gave up six runs in a little over four innings. If he's short again, Oakland goes to a bullpen that's worked three days in a row, blew the lead in the eighth last night, and lost Mark Leiter for the season. Kotsay said it himself after that game — they're still trying to sort out who does what. Detroit swept all three in July and none of them were close. Over the last two weeks the Tigers have been scoring more than they give up, and the A's have been doing the opposite by a wide margin. And the usual home-underdog edge isn't there — this club has been worse at home than on the road. Now the honest part: a bullpen game in a hot park with the wind blowing out can get ugly fast, Detroit hasn't been good on the road, and their own lineup is patched together — Vierling went on the injured list this morning, Carpenter's out, and their center fielder just got called up from the minors today. I'd rather have gotten this at the cheaper morning price than chase it here. But the gap in run prevention on both sides of this game is big enough that I'll pay up.

Detroit Tigers ML-143

CONF

63%

MLB9:45 PM

Giants @ Padres

Deadline day in San Diego, late start out west, and these two teams showed up with totally different things on their minds. San Francisco just got a beautiful goodbye start from Robbie Ray in the opener — six innings, one run, a win that felt more like he was showing off for every other team looking to trade for him than anything about this series. San Diego woke up another game behind in the wild card chase with a roster that could look completely different by Monday. Tonight the Giants go with Carson Whisenhunt, a rookie lefty with barely three big-league starts, and every time I look at how he gets outs I end up in the same spot. His changeup is legit — hitters swing and miss on it constantly. Everything else is trouble. His fastball is average speed and hitters have crushed it. Righties in particular have hit him hard with power; lefties haven't done much, but he's barely faced any. San Diego is running out seven right-handed bats, and the top of that lineup is red hot — Tatis, Rengifo, Machado, France and Merrill are all locked in over the last two weeks, and this team has been scoring way above its season pace. Whisenhunt hasn't finished six innings yet either. Once he's gone, San Francisco turns to a bullpen that just used Caleb Kilian two nights in a row and has Ryan Walker running an ugly earned run number. The fair knock on me is how San Diego's night is set up. Bradgley Rodriguez is really a reliever with a starter's title — big velocity, a changeup hitters can't touch, but he's gone one inning at a time all year. That leaves eight innings to a staff that just burned Randy Vásquez and JP Sears in last night's loss, with Wandy Peralta up two days running. That's the soft spot and I won't pretend otherwise. What keeps me on San Diego anyway: Morejon, Estrada, Matsui and Mason Miller are all fresh, Petco keeps fly balls in the park, and the Giants show up without Daniel Susac, the bat that did all the damage in the opener. Behind Arraez and Devers, this lineup is Eldridge, Adames and McCray all ice cold over the last two weeks. I'll pay the price — Padres to win straight up, at a worse number than it opened this morning, which is exactly why this is a solid play and not a big one.

San Diego Padres ML-156

CONF

64%

MLB10:10 PM

Red Sox @ Dodgers

It's Friday night in Los Angeles, three days before the trade deadline, and the two biggest stories in baseball are in the same ballpark — the team with the best record hosting the team that's been nearly unbeatable since the Fourth of July. The name on the marquee says Dodgers. The pitching plan says something very different. Los Angeles is starting Edgardo Henriquez, a guy who pitched last night and is now being asked to cover an inning tonight before handing it off to whoever's left. And whoever's left is the part the odds aren't taking seriously. Tanner Scott, Edwin Díaz and Alex Vesia have all worked heavily the last two nights — the best arms at the end of the game are already used up, and somebody still has to get through eight or nine innings in the first game of a three-game weekend. Boston's situation looks nothing like that: their relievers have spread the work around over the last three games, seven different guys, Chapman and Weissert barely broke a sweat yesterday, and Whitlock and Slaten haven't pitched at all. Then there's the lineup Roberts turned in. Suárez throws left-handed, so Muncy, Rushing and Edman all sit, and the replacements are Miguel Rojas batting third and Eliezer Alfonzo batting ninth. That would make sense if Suárez were a typical lefty, but he isn't — right-handed hitters have been terrible against him all season, and that curveball gets hitters swinging at junk out of the zone constantly. They sat three real bats chasing an advantage that actually works against them with this particular pitcher. Now the price. This morning Boston paid a little better than even money. By the time I'm writing this it's paying noticeably more, which tells me the cash poured in on Los Angeles all day — some of it the Ohtani news, but mostly people betting the famous name and the shiny record. I'll happily take the other side. I'm getting a better price on a team with a real starting pitcher, a fresh bullpen behind him, a strong record away from home, and a lineup that's been scoring well over the last two weeks against a staff that has to wing it from the very first hitter. This isn't a blowout play, and I'm not pretending Freeman and Ohtani aren't scary. It's basically a coin flip being sold to me at a discount because one side has a prettier record. Red Sox to win.

Boston Red Sox ML+113

CONF

65%

MLB10:10 PM

Twins @ Mariners

**Gary's Take** Friday night indoors in Seattle, trade deadline day, and both teams have one eye on their phones. Two clubs stuck right around the middle — the Mariners a couple games out in their division after a rough stretch, the Twins dead even on the year and coming in off a walk-off grand slam. The price on Seattle opened this morning and has come down a little since. That's the part I care about, because nothing about tonight got worse for the home team between sunrise and first pitch. Bryce Miller is the best pitcher in this ballpark and it isn't close. His run prevention is excellent and the underlying stuff says he's earned every bit of it — soft contact, very few balls crushed, and a splitter he throws about a quarter of the time that hitters basically cannot touch. He's just as tough on lefties as righties, so Minnesota stacking four left-handed bats and two switch-hitters doesn't buy them anything. Zebby Matthews walks in from the other side with a bloated run total, gives up hard contact way too often, and leans on a fastball that hitters tee off on — the exact pitch Dominic Canzone has been feasting on all season. Matthews' swing-and-miss has cratered over his last five starts. He's a contact pitcher who gives up loud contact, and a cool breeze blowing in from left in heavy marine air is not the room he wants to test that in. The honest knock on this side: Miller's team has lost almost every one of his recent starts because Seattle can't score. They've been scraping by for the last two weeks, Crawford's wrist landed him on the injured list Thursday, Raley's elbow scratched him tonight, Julio is swinging at everything and Raleigh is ice cold. But Minnesota is not the cure for that — more than half their lineup has been nearly hitless over the past week, and their last three wins came on a ninth-inning slam, a ninth-inning triple, and a blowout stitched together with defensive miscues. That's not an offense, that's a highlight reel. And if this is tied late, I want the bullpen with Speier, Ferrer and Muñoz, not the one working through Rogers and Topa with Rojas already run into the ground. I'll take Seattle, and I'll happily take the discount that walk-off highlight handed me.

Mariners ML-164

CONF

61%

Player props

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

Michael Busch

Warren's problem all year has been the glove side. Ten home runs surrendered to lefties in 224 at-bats against five in 178 to righties. He's also been generally hittable of late — averaging under five innings over his last six starts, with the Yankees losing five of those six.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-128

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed bat who does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching — nineteen home runs against righties this season against five against lefties — and Warren fits that profile, a scuffling righty the Yankees have lost five of his last six starts with. He's doing it right now too: three homers in his last seven games, with 93 mph average exit velocity and six barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, so it isn't just a hot roll of the dice. Warren's sinker and sweeper are both getting hit for xwOBA numbers near .390 this season, and those are pitches a free-swinging lefty like this sees plenty of. One extra-base hit gets this done, and nobody on this roster is squaring the ball up better right now.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-113

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales might be the best bat on the field tonight that nobody's talking about. He's hitting .368 over his last fifteen games, he doesn't chase much and he doesn't miss much, and he's flat-out had Greene's number in the past — three hits in nine at-bats with barely any strikeout trouble. He's squaring balls up right now regardless of who's on the mound, and this is close to even money for a guy doing this three or four times a week lately. I'm taking it.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-104

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Nathaniel Lowe

Lowe is having one of the better two-week stretches on either roster, and he's doing it from the side of the plate where he actually does damage — he hits right-handers a different way than lefties, and Skenes gives him exactly that look tonight. He's also more comfortable at home than on the road. He doubled last night and then beat out what looked like an inning-ending double play in the ninth to help cash the winning run, and he's shown all year he does his best work with runners on. Two total bases isn't much to ask from him right now.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+172

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez has gone deep four times in his last fifteen days, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — 88.9 mph average exit velo with a barrel in his last eighteen balls in play back it up. He's a right-handed bat, and Great American Ball Park's short side is left field, which is exactly where a right-handed pull hitter is working tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+335

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Bryan Reynolds

The batting line says cold — .157 over his last fifteen days — but the contact data underneath it says something different: ten hard-hit balls and three barrels in just nineteen balls in play over that same stretch. That's a hitter running into outs, not a hitter losing pop. He's also already got a track record against tonight's Reds starter specifically — a homer and a 1.075 OPS in sixteen career at-bats against Hunter Greene. Greene is letting hitters connect hard right now (46.6% hard-hit allowed, .332 xwOBA against), and Reynolds' underlying quality of contact is exactly the kind that tends to catch back up to the results.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart's put three home runs up in his last fifteen days and leads this Reds team in RBI on the year. Against right-handed pitching he's gone deep once every nineteen at-bats, and he's a right-handed bat with Great American's short left-field porch to work with tonight. The swing against him is Paul Skenes, who's been the best pitcher in this series by a wide margin — 2.82 xERA, only 6.6% barrels allowed all year — so I'm not pretending this is a soft matchup. But Stewart's current power stroke and the platoon/park fit are real enough to back him even against Pittsburgh's ace.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

De La Cruz is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now — 98.1 mph average exit velo with three barrels in nineteen balls in play over his last fifteen days — and at Great American Ball Park specifically he's gone deep once every seventeen at-bats for his career. He's 0-for-3 with five strikeouts in eleven career at-bats against Paul Skenes, so this isn't a matchup he's cracked personally, and Skenes is the best arm on the mound in this series. But De La Cruz doesn't need a friendly matchup to do damage — the bat speed and quality of contact are elite regardless of who's throwing — and he gets to do it at home tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+428

MLB HR · Yankees @ Cubs

Spencer Jones

Jones has been squaring balls up about as hard as anyone in this lineup lately — a three-run homer two games ago in Chicago, and the contact since has stayed loud even beyond that one swing. That's not a guy searching for his timing, that's a guy finding barrels.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Brandon Young

Young's been the best arm in this series by a wide margin, missing bats in six straight starts with a slider hitters are whiffing on at a 50 percent clip. He's walking into a Phillies lineup that just got swept in Miami looking lost at the plate — Harper's chasing at a 40 percent rate lately, and that's not an isolated case in this order right now. A pitcher this locked in against an offense this uncomfortable is the combination I want for strikeouts.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-132

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Andrew Painter

Painter just got recalled after 44 days in Triple-A, and nothing about his big-league tape says he fixed what got him sent down. He's carrying a 7.06 ERA and hitters are hammering his fastball for a .400-plus average — that's not bad luck, that's hard contact on his best pitch. He's facing an Orioles lineup that just put up ten runs two nights ago, with a middle order that can do damage against a guy missing spots. Two and a half earned runs is a low bar for a pitcher throwing like this.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+106

MLB HR · Phillies @ Orioles

Coby Mayo

Mayo's been the hottest bat in this lineup this week — a game-tying triple in extras and multiple balls leaving the yard. Painter has given up multiple home runs in four of his last six big-league starts, mostly off the fastball and sinker he still leans on early in counts. This is a hot power bat walking into a pitcher who can't keep the ball in the park.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Dylan Cease

Cease has punched out seven or more hitters in five of his last six starts, averaging better than nine a night, and both his slider and changeup are missing bats at an elite rate right now — the slider getting whiffs on more than four in ten swings, the changeup on better than half. The only time he came up short was a six-inning outing against Tampa Bay where a couple of early homers changed the shape of his night, a different look than what's across from him tonight.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts-130

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Daulton Varsho

Leahy has a real left-handed hitter problem this season — .309 average, an .870 OPS against, seven home runs allowed in under 200 at-bats from that side of the plate. Varsho is a lefty bat who's been the hottest hitter in this Toronto lineup over the past week, nine hits in his last 24 with an .858 OPS, and he already delivered the go-ahead hit two nights ago to close out the series in Washington. He's in the middle of the order against a pitcher with a specific, demonstrated hole for exactly his type of at-bat.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+142

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami's been on one of the hotter runs on either roster — nine hits in his last seven games, and the underlying contact backs it up, not just an empty batting average. He's squaring balls up at a rate that stands out even in a small window. Against right-handed pitching this season he's a different hitter than his overall line suggests, with far more thump than he shows against lefties, and Martinez is a righty. Short price, but I don't need length here — I want the swing he's taking into tonight.

OVER 0.5 Hits-174

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Chase Meidroth

Meidroth's carrying more pop than his spot in the order suggests — two home runs in his last week, and the exit-velocity readings back it up, this isn't accidental power. He's turning quality contact into extra bases at a real clip right now, and this line only asks him to get to two bases once, or find a couple of singles. Given where his bat is at the moment, that's not a heavy lift, and the price hasn't caught up to how he's been squaring the ball up.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+195

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Kodai Senga

An 8.85 ERA isn't one bad week — it's been the whole season, and the pitch-level numbers back it up. Hitters have a .420 expected weighted on-base average against his fastball and .608 against his cutter, and those two pitches are more than half of what he throws. His forkball is the only real swing-and-miss weapon in the mix.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-110

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Griffin Conine

Conine's swinging it as well as anyone in that lineup right now — four home runs and a .947 OPS over his last two weeks. He's left-handed, walking into a matchup against a pitcher who has had no answer for left-handed hitting all season: a 1.032 OPS allowed with six home runs surrendered in well under 200 at-bats against lefties. Senga's two most-used pitches, the four-seamer and the cutter, are both getting hit hard by everybody who steps in against him, and Conine's contact right now is loud enough to take advantage of a mistake. He doesn't need a monster night to clear two bases — one extra-base hit does it — and he's been doing exactly that more often than this price accounts for.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+184

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

Foster Griffin

This is about survivability more than dominance. Griffin has worked at least six innings in five of his last six starts, and the one time he came out early he still went five.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-145

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Abrams is doing damage in every way that leads to a run crossing the plate. He's scored in two-thirds of his games over the last two weeks, he's got seven home runs in his last fifteen games — which is itself an automatic run — and he's hitting cleanup behind James Wood, Luis Garcia Jr.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+110

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Ryan Waldschmidt

Waldschmidt's at .379 with a .987 OPS over his last 15 games, and the week before tonight has been even louder — 6-for-11. That's a hitter already locked in walking into a soft matchup: a right-handed bat against a left-hander in Bratt, who's letting right-handed hitters hit .279 with an .891 OPS off him this year.

OVER 0.5 Hits-125

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

Kwan doesn't chase and he doesn't miss — 17 percent whiff, 17 percent chase over his last two weeks, and those are skills that travel from game to game. He's got a hit in 13 of his last 15 and he's hitting .391 in that stretch. Put a contact bat like that in front of a rookie left-hander who's getting hit at a .333 clip on the fastball and .375 on the sinker, with almost nothing in the arsenal that misses bats, and the short price is short for a reason. This is the floor play of the night.

OVER 0.5 Hits-195

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez has hit .600 with a 1.704 OPS in his career at-bats against Eovaldi, and that's not a three-game fluke — it's two dozen at-bats of him squaring up exactly what Eovaldi throws. Eovaldi lives off his splitter and curveball and mostly avoids his four-seam for good reason: it's getting hit at a .397 clip and a .401 expected wOBA against this year.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-140

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Ezequiel Duran

Duran's in the middle of a real stretch — two home runs and six RBIs in his last seven games, and he's crossed the plate in eleven of his last fifteen. He's hitting fifth for Texas behind Pederson, Langford, and a Seager bat that's back in the lineup, so there should be traffic in front of him most nights. Brown has been walking hitters at a high rate lately, which only helps stretch out at-bats for the middle of this order. Plus-190 for a guy scoring at a 73 percent clip over two weeks is too much number to pass on.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+190

MLB HR · Rangers @ Astros

Jake Burger

Burger has two home runs in ten career at-bats against Brown, a rate worth noting even in a small sample, and he's got three home runs in his last fifteen games on top of it — he's built to do damage in bunches, not string together average. This is a lower-probability swing than the rest of my card tonight, but the price reflects that, and the personal history against this exact pitcher plus the current power output make plus-529 worth a shot.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+529

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Michael Wacha

Wacha leans on his changeup and four-seamer for about half his pitches, and both are legitimate swing-and-miss weapons — the changeup's been his best all season. Colorado's lineup strikes out close to nine times a game as a team, and Wacha's cleared this number in five of his last eight turns while still working deep into starts most nights out. Plus money on a total that sits right under his own season punchout rate is the right side of a fair number.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+105

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Jac Caglianone

Sugano's fastball and sinker account for two of every five pitches he throws, and the league is hitting both hard all year — a .317 average on the four-seamer, .342 on the sinker. Caglianone's underlying contact this season has been better than his batting line shows, and the ball carries at altitude in this building. He's been cold the last couple weeks, but the exit velocity hasn't gone anywhere — he's still squaring the ball up, it just hasn't fallen in. One clean swing at a fastball or sinker tonight and he's past this number.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-135

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Shane Drohan

Drohan's sitting on a 3.51 ERA but that number is doing a lot of hiding — his sinker gets hit at a .370 clip and his hard-hit rate against is pushing 38%. He's not missing bats with that pitch, he's surviving it with sequencing and limiting the damage on contact. He's allowed five or more hits in five straight starts and seven of his last eight overall. I don't need a bad outing for this to cash, I need a normal one.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-105

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Vaughn Grissom

Grissom is running the show in the middle of this lineup right now — two homers and eight RBI over his last seven games, and he's hitting well over .300 with runners in scoring position this year. Asking him for two combined hits, runs, or RBI in a game isn't a stretch for a bat swinging like this, and I'm still getting paid plus money for it.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+117

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno's been the best bat on either roster for two weeks running, and it isn't an empty .950 OPS — the underlying contact backs it up, and by the expected numbers there's still a little more slug owed to him, not less. He hits right-handers well over the course of a season, and his power hasn't dropped off on the road the way it should worry me tonight as the visiting bat. Bibee's sinker is one of the pitches hitters have done the most with against him this year, and it's a pitch Moreno already squares up. I don't need a new version of him to show up — just the one that's already been running hot for two weeks.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Chase DeLauter

Bratt hasn't figured out how to keep two of his most-used pitches in the yard — his fastball and his slider have both gotten hit hard all season, and between them that's over half of everything he throws. DeLauter is one of the rare left-handed bats who's actually better against left-handed pitching, and his numbers against both a fastball and a slider specifically are loud — real slugging, not just empty contact. His exit velocity the last couple weeks has been sharper than his batting average lets on, so the swing is in a good place even with the average still catching up. When the way a rookie pitcher is getting hit lines up this cleanly with what the hitter already does well, that's the kind of night I want a piece of.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Kyle Stowers

Stowers has been the hottest hitter on either roster this week — three home runs in his last seven games, squaring balls up at nearly 97 miles an hour off the bat in that stretch with four barreled balls in sixteen chances. He's left-handed, and Kodai Senga has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — they carry an OPS over 1.000 against him, more than 150 points higher than what right-handers have managed.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami's in the middle of the best power stretch of his season — three home runs in his last seven games, and the underlying contact backs it up. He's hitting the ball harder and finding more barrels right now than anyone else in this lineup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+370

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Griffin Conine

Conine is carrying the best power surge on the board tonight — four home runs in his last fifteen games, and a .991 OPS with nine homers against right-handed pitching this season in well under a hundred at-bats. Kodai Senga leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch he throws, and it's the one that's been hit hardest against him all season, with opponents batting over .330 on it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Brewers @ Angels

Jake Bauers

Bauers is squaring up everything right now — his exit velocity over the last two weeks has been running well above a normal solid-average line, and that kind of contact finds the gaps and eventually the seats even before the batting average catches up. He's also a clearly better power hitter at night than during the day this season, and first pitch tonight is well after dark.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Caminero's a different hitter at home than he is on the road, and tonight he's at home. Almost all of his power this year has come with the platoon in his favor against right-handers, and Fedde fits that.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

MLB HR · Brewers @ Angels

Christian Yelich

Yelich's barrel rate has ticked up noticeably over the last few weeks, and that's usually the tell that shows up before the power does — he's finding the sweet spot more than his batting line lets on right now. Johnson has actually had a tougher time against lefties than righties this season, which runs backwards from what you'd expect out of a right-hander, and his sinker is the one pitch in his mix that's gotten hammered all year regardless of who's in the box. Yelich is patient enough to let a bad pitch come to him instead of chasing one out of the zone. Plus-600 for one swing against a pitcher this hittable from the left side is a number I want.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Brewers @ Angels

Jo Adell

Adell already has three home runs in the last two weeks, and the contact quality behind that stretch says it's real — his expected slugging has been running ahead of where his actual slugging sits, which tells me the ball has been coming off his bat better than the results show. Drohan hasn't allowed a home run to a left-handed hitter all season, but he's given up six to righties, and Adell hits from that side. Drohan's cutter and curveball have also been his two most hittable pitches this season, so there's more than one way for Adell to run into one tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+460

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Corbin Carroll

Carroll's contact quality the last two weeks is the loudest on this whole board — exit velocity up, barrels up, the kind of contact that turns into homers whether the batting average has caught up yet or not. He's got a real power track record against right-handed pitching for his career, and in a small sample against Bibee specifically he's hitting .500 with three hits in six career at-bats. The one mark against it is that his power at home has been noticeably better than his power on the road this year, and tonight he's the visitor. I'm still in — recent contact like this is loud enough that I think it travels.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Alvarez

Alvarez has three home runs in his last fifteen games and he's been driving the ball hard in that stretch — five hard-hit balls and two barrels in his last ten balls in play. He's a right-handed hitter with real over-the-fence power against right-handed pitching this year, and Janson Junk's slider and curveball have both been getting hit hard all season, the curveball especially — opponents are batting .333 off it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Miguel Vargas

Vargas has kept hitting the ball hard even while his results lagged the last two weeks — the exit velocity and barrel rate are still there even though the batting line isn't showing it. Martinez has been excellent overall this year, but the pitch he throws most, his sinker, is also the one hitters have squared up the most against him — a lot of contact allowed and not much swing and miss on it. Vargas has built a real home run total against right-handed pitching this season on a big sample. This is the shortest price of the three I'm taking tonight, and Tropicana is a fair headwind for everybody in this game, which is why I'm not going bigger here — but I think the price still undersells him.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Lindor

Lindor's running hot — two home runs and eight RBIs in his last seven games, three homers and twelve driven in over his last fifteen, and the contact quality backs it up with three barreled balls in his last twenty balls in play. He's a switch-hitter, which means he bats left-handed against Janson Junk tonight, and Junk has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — an .875 OPS against, compared to well under .600 against right-handers. That's about as clean a platoon matchup as this board offers. Betting the over.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Brewers @ Angels

Vaughn Grissom

Grissom's the hottest bat in this Angels lineup right now — two home runs in his last seven games with the underlying contact trending up alongside it. Drohan hasn't given up a single home run to a left-handed hitter all year, but he's allowed six to righties, and Grissom bats right-handed. Most of his power this season has come with the bases empty rather than in traffic, so I like that he gets his own uninterrupted swing instead of needing to drive somebody in first. Plus-730 for a bat running a home run every five games or so right now is a discount I'll take.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+730

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Jeffrey Springs

Springs is walking in with a 6.23 ERA and a track record against this exact Tigers roster that already went sideways once this season — six earned runs in four and a third innings back on July 8. He left his last start against Minnesota early with hip discomfort, and even with no new setback reported, a pitcher coming off that kind of exit five days ago isn't pitching on a long leash tonight. Move him from Comerica to Sutter Health Park on a 97-degree night with the wind blowing out, and that's a step up in difficulty for someone who was already getting hit hard before any of this. Plus money for him to cross three and a half earned runs is the number I want.

OVER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+115

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Tyler Soderstrom

Soderstrom's been hitting with real conviction the last two weeks — three home runs in his last fifteen games isn't an accident, and he's cleared this number in two of every three games recently. He's in the cleanup spot tonight behind a lineup that's actually getting on base ahead of him, and Detroit is patching this game together with a scratched starter and a bullpen day. That's the kind of night a hot middle-of-the-order bat turns into a multi-stat game.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-133

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Ty France

France is running as hot as anyone in this lineup, 18 hits in his last 53 at-bats with five home runs mixed in, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Whisenhunt's four-seamer is the pitch that's supposed to set up everything else, and instead it's the one getting hunted all season. France has already shown he does damage against that exact shape of pitch, and his numbers against changeups, Whisenhunt's other primary weapon, are even better. A right-handed bat against a left-hander who's allowing hard contact at a 41 percent clip, in a lineup full of the same look — one extra-base knock covers this number, and everything about how he's swinging it points that direction.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado has four homers and nine RBI over his last two weeks, and the pitch he's living on right now — the four-seam fastball, where he's slugging .652 for the season — is exactly the pitch Whisenhunt can't keep off the barrel. This isn't a rookie nibbling around contact; he's throwing that fastball nearly 40 percent of the time and it's getting hit at a .400 clip. A combined hit-run-RBI line of three just needs Machado to keep doing what he's already doing most nights against a pitcher who's given him no reason to expect otherwise.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+140

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela is thriving in the two-hole for Boston right now. He has cashed this combined prop in 11 of his last 15 games, bringing a steady stream of contact and run production ahead of the big bats in the middle of the order.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-105

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Andruw Monasterio

The market price here assumes Andruw Monasterio is just a bottom-of-the-order afterthought, but he has been arguably the most locked-in hitter in this Boston lineup. He is batting over .400 across his last 15 games and has cleared this 1.5 threshold in 10 of those contests. He is consistently finding his way on base and driving in runs when the top half of the order leaves traffic on the basepaths. At +127, this line leans way too hard on his spot in the batting order and ignores the actual momentum he brings to the plate right now.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+127

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

Zebby Matthews

Matthews' whiff rate has been sliding start over start — 28 percent, 21, 21, 17, 12 over his last five turns. That's stuff flattening out as the season wears on, and a pitcher who stops missing bats usually starts steering the ball instead of trusting it. He's walked multiple hitters in five of his last six outings, including back-to-back three-walk games his last two turns and a four-walk outing back in early July. Plus money on a guy trending toward more free passes, not fewer, is the number I want.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks+105

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

Bryce Miller

Miller's out pitch is the splitter, and it's been dominant all year — .147 average against it, missing bats more than a third of the time hitters swing at it. Minnesota's lineup has some real swing-and-miss in it tonight too: Royce Lewis has whiffed on 41 percent of his swings recently, Larnach's at 32, Jeffers at 23.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+100

Hub research

173

bullpen_fatigueCHW @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa's pen is running on fumes — Baker and Cleavinger both worked both of the last two days and Seymour just ate 71 pitches, so none of them have much left. If this stays tight late, Kevin Kelly's about the only fully trustworthy arm they've got.
starter_team_recordMIA @ NYM
Mets 0-8 in Kodai Senga's last 8 starts
Mets have dropped eight in a row with Senga starting. That's on the whole team, not just him — but eight straight is eight straight, and Miami's the one hoping to make it nine tonight.
starter_team_recordWSH @ ATL
Nationals 7-0 in Foster Griffin's last 7 starts
Seven starts, seven Nationals wins with Griffin on the mound. That's a team number more than a pitcher number — check how he's actually throwing before leaning on the record alone.
bullpen_fatigueSTL @ TOR
St. Louis Cardinals pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
St. Louis has three high-leverage arms — Stanek, O'Brien, Gastelum — all on zero rest after working both of the last two days. Graceffo and Strzelecki are the only two who've only been used once, and they're the fresher option if the Cardinals need length tonight.
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Kyle Leahy (RHP)
Lukes has hit .801 against right-handers this year compared to .359 against lefties, a real split over a real sample. Leahy's a righty and Lukes leads off tonight, so that platoon lines up clean.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_team_recordPHI @ BAL
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
Painter's taken the ball eight times and the Phillies have won once. Five losses in a row in his starts now, and he's back out there tonight in Baltimore trying to snap it.
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHC
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Goldschmidt's a completely different hitter against lefties — 1.043 OPS in 117 at-bats compared to .588 against right-handers. Imanaga's a lefty and Goldschmidt's leading off tonight, right into the matchup that's worked for him all year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordCHW @ TB
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Tampa's won six of Martinez's last seven starts. Worth pairing with the regression note on him below — the ERA behind that record has been running well ahead of what he's actually allowing.
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Kodai Senga (RHP)
Hicks is a different hitter against right-handers — .885 OPS over 266 at-bats versus .501 the other way. Senga's a righty and Hicks leads off for Miami tonight, so he's getting his side of the platoon in a matchup the Mets probably wish they could avoid.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cut_listCOL tonight
Tomoyuki Sugano
Starts tonight for COL — 7.33 xERA behind a 4.69 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Dylan Cease (RHP)
Burleson's mashing right-handers this season, a .945 OPS over 282 at-bats against a .500 mark versus lefties. Cease is a righty and Burleson hits third tonight, right in his sweet spot.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
ownedTEX @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez vs Nathan Eovaldi: .600
Alvarez has just owned Eovaldi over the years — 12-for-20 with a pair of homers whenever they've met, and they meet again tonight. He's also riding a 1.179 OPS over his last 15 days walking in, so nothing about his form says this trend breaks.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
streakingNYY @ CHC
NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Five straight unders for the Yankees, real scoring around 7.2 runs a game against lines that had been sitting near 10.7. Tonight's number comes down to 9 — the market's adjusted some, but there's still room between that and where these games have actually landed.
P final total 2 vs 9
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Nick Martinez (RHP)
Antonacci's got an .860 OPS against right-handers versus .518 against lefties, and he leads off against the right-handed Martinez tonight. Clean side of his platoon split.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
platoon_edgeMIL @ LAA
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's numbers against right-handers, .916 OPS, are way out ahead of what he does against lefties, and Ryan Johnson throws right-handed. He leads off into a matchup that favors him on paper.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Moniak's a completely different hitter against right-handers — .952 OPS in 197 at-bats compared to .595 versus lefties. Wacha's a righty and Moniak hits second tonight, right in the version of this matchup that's actually worked for him.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
starter_team_recordTEX @ HOU
Rangers 6-2 in Nathan Eovaldi's last 8 starts
Rangers are 6-2 in Eovaldi's last eight starts, but Texas games have also gone over in four straight — this isn't a team riding shutdown pitching, it's one outscoring people.
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's OPS against right-handers this year is .993, almost 400 points higher than his .617 mark against lefties. Young's a righty and Harper's hitting third tonight, so this is the matchup Baltimore would rather not be giving him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftMIA @ NYM
At Citi Field, Kodai Senga pitches to a 11.72 ERA
Senga's ERA at Citi Field is 11.72 over six starts this year, compared to 6.65 on the road, and hitters are batting .311 off him at home. Something about pitching in front of his own crowd hasn't worked for him this season.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
cooling_offSTL @ TOR
Jordan Walker: .530 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
Walker's been cold — .530 OPS over his last 15 days, way down from his .838 season line. Cease is a righty, and right-handers are already the tougher matchup for Walker this year at .815, so tonight doesn't look like the spot he breaks out of it.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_team_recordKC @ COL
Rockies 6-2 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts
Colorado's 6-2 with Sugano starting. But his last three outings have been ugly — 6.48 ERA — and the season-long gap between his ERA and xERA said that correction was coming. Looks like it already has.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Max Fried
Monday's start at the White Sox already happened. Saturday at the Cubs is the only one left on the week, and a 2.51 xERA is the best number on this whole sheet. Start him Saturday, no debate.
starter_team_recordPHI @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 6-2 in Brandon Young's last eight, four straight wins in that stretch. Solid trend, but a team record follows the whole roster, not just the guy pitching.
starter_team_recordCHW @ TB
White Sox 6-2 in Erick Fedde's last 8 starts
White Sox are 6-2 with Fedde on the mound, five straight wins in his starts. Same caveat as any of these — I want to see the pitching line, not just the standings column.
ballpark_shiftMIL @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 4.95 at Angel Stadium
Ryan Johnson's home starts have gone considerably better than his road ones — 4.95 ERA at Angel Stadium against 9.55 everywhere else. He's home tonight, and the contact quality underneath his ugly season line says he hasn't been hit as hard as the ERA suggests.
P 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
rest_fatiguePIT @ CIN
PIT's pen has logged 17.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 17.7 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Hunter Barco (3) carried the load. CIN's pen has thrown 15 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 7-8
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: 1.280 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is running a 1.280 OPS over his last 15 days, more than 350 points above his season mark, with 27 home runs already banked. His total-bases number sits at just 1.5 tonight — a hot bat like that against a line like that is worth a look.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: 1.204 OPS in Last 15 Days
Baldwin's running a 1.204 OPS over his last 15 days, well clear of his .851 season mark, with 20 homers already banked. Same 1.5 total-bases number as Abrams tonight, and he's earned that look too.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
heat_checkSF @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.045 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's hitting at a 1.045 OPS clip over his last 15 days against a .679 season line — that's a real gap. Fifteen homers on the year, and his total-bases number tonight is 1.5, a line that hasn't caught up to how he's swinging it lately.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRangers @ Astros
Yordan Alvarez
Gary's Take There's a reason Alvarez sits alone at the top of this board price-wise. He's in the middle of the best two weeks of his season — four home runs and a 1.179 OPS since the middle of July — and Eovaldi is about as bad a matchup as a pitcher can hand him.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Nick Martinez (RHP)
Murakami's punishing right-handers this season, a 1.018 OPS over 177 at-bats compared to .716 against lefties. Martinez is a righty and Murakami hits second tonight, right where his numbers say he should do damage.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds: .526 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Greene
Reynolds is cold — .526 OPS over his last 15 days, down from an .835 season mark. Greene's a righty, and right-handers are already the tougher side for Reynolds this year at .818, so tonight's matchup doesn't do him any favors.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
streakingCHW @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 5 straight
The under has cashed 5 in a row in TB games: 3.4 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 6.4. Tonight's number sits at 8.5.
P final total 7 vs 8.5
heat_checkTEX @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.264 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on one — 1.264 OPS over his last 15 days versus an .866 season mark, a nearly 400-point jump. Twelve homers on the year, and his total-bases line still sits at just 1.5 tonight.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
streakingKC @ COL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Colorado's gone under in five straight, but that's happening at altitude, where the environment usually pushes totals up, not down. The line's just been set even higher than the 12.2 runs a game these have actually produced — tonight it comes down to 11, still rich for a normal park.
P final total 4 vs 11
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 7/27
Zack Wheeler
Monday against the Marlins is already in the books. Sunday at the Orioles closes out his week, backed by a 2.65 xERA. Start him Sunday, easy yes.
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Kodai Senga (RHP), batting 4th
Kyle Stowers carries a .852 OPS vs. Right (247 AB) against .492 the other way (70 AB), and faces RHP Kodai Senga from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Kodai Senga: 8.85 ERA vs 5.42 xERA
Senga's actual ERA is 8.85, but the expected number off his contact quality is 5.42 — a gap north of three runs. Opponents are hitting .280 against him with a .244 expected average, so the results have been uglier than the process, and most lines are still pricing off that 8.85.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
bullpen_fatigueTEX @ HOU
Houston Astros pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houston's setup bridge is worn down — Abreu and Okert have each pitched both of the last two days, Okert already to 40 pitches in that stretch. Hader got a rest day mixed into his two outings, so he still looks live for the ninth with a lead.
bullpen_fatiguePHI @ BAL
Baltimore Orioles pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore's bullpen is about as fresh as it gets — nine arms covering 14.3 innings and nobody's gone in each of the last two days. Cano and Kittredge are both fully available on light recent counts, so the matchups are wide open late.
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Tristan Peters: .307 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nick Martinez
Peters has been ice cold — .307 OPS over his last 15 days, down more than 400 points from his .755 season mark. He does draw his better side tonight though, an .803 mark against right-handers like Martinez, so there's a case for some correction if he's going to find it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftBOS @ LAD
Edgardo Henriquez owns a 0.81 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 5.12 everywhere else
Henriquez turns into a different pitcher at Dodger Stadium — 0.81 ERA at home against 5.12 on the road, opponents hitting .113 off him there. That's as sharp a split as you'll find on this board.
P 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Hunter Greene (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe carries a .897 OPS vs. Right (279 AB) against .608 the other way (121 AB), and faces RHP Hunter Greene from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
heat_checkSF @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.098 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's running a 1.098 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .623 season line, one of the bigger gaps on the board tonight. His total-bases number sits at 1.5 as well.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
heat_checkPHI @ BAL
Trea Turner: 1.032 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's at a 1.032 OPS over his last 15 days against a .684 season mark, close to 350 points higher. Fifteen homers on the year, and the total-bases number tonight is still just 1.5.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
rest_fatigueCHW @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 16.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Ian Seymour (4.7) and Steven Matz (3.3). CHW's pen has thrown 14.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-1
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Guardians
Corbin Carroll
Gary's Take Bibee's been fine on the surface this year, an ERA under 4 even with a losing record behind him, but dig into how he's allowed his power and there's a real split hiding in there — left-handed hitters have gone deep against him at close to double the rate right-handers have, and that's built up over a full season of innings, not a one-start blip. Carroll bats left-handed and he's controlling the barrel as well right now as anyone in this lineup, the contact quality the last couple weeks is a notch above where he was earlier in the year.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Padres
Jackson Merrill
Gary's Take Merrill's squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now, and the quality of contact actually backs up the batting average, which isn't always the case with a hot week. Five home runs in his last two weeks matches the best power stretch on this roster, and he's doing it against a Giants starter who's letting hard, well-struck contact through no matter who's standing in the box.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueSTL @ TOR
16 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 16 innings over the last 3 games (CJ Van Eyk (3.3) and Louis Varland (3) the heaviest). STL's pen has thrown 16 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-3
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Payton Tolle
Monday's Athletics start is done. Saturday on the road at the Dodgers is the one game he's got left, with a 2.91 xERA behind him all year. Start him Saturday.
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Guardians
Gabriel Moreno
Gary's Take Moreno's been the best bat on either roster for two weeks running, and it isn't an empty .950 OPS — the underlying contact backs it up, and by the expected numbers there's still a little more slug owed to him, not less. He hits right-handers well over the course of a season, and his power hasn't dropped off on the road the way it should worry me tonight as the visiting bat.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Erick Fedde
Aranda's cold — .456 OPS over his last 15 days against an .813 season mark. He's facing a righty in Fedde tonight, which is actually his stronger side at .875, so the matchup at least gives him a chance to turn it around.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offNYY @ CHC
Ben Rice: .672 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
Rice has cooled off — .672 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .931 season mark. Imanaga's a lefty, technically Rice's weaker side, but an .813 OPS against lefties this year is still plenty good, so 'weaker side' is relative here.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offPHI @ BAL
Brandon Marsh: .360 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Young
Marsh has been rough lately — .360 OPS over his last 15 days, down from .776 on the season. He does get his better side tonight, an .826 mark against right-handers like Young, so if he's going to snap out of it, this is a fair matchup to do it in.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ CIN
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 17.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh's thrown more bullpen innings than anyone in this group, but it's mostly one-and-done work. Soto's the exception — back-to-back days, already at 40 pitches — so he's the name to watch if Cincinnati gets a look at him late.
rest_fatigueTEX @ HOU
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Cristian Javier (5) and AJ Blubaugh (2.3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 2-11
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Jake Bennett
He's running the same two-city week as Tolle, just a day behind — Athletics already played Tuesday, Dodgers still ahead on Sunday. One start left to account for, at a 3.07 xERA. Start him Sunday.
heat_checkNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .955 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hoerner's at a .955 OPS over his last 15 days, close to 300 points above his .670 season mark — a real hot stretch for a guy who doesn't usually run numbers like that.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsPirates @ Reds
Esmerlyn Valdez
Gary's Take Valdez has gone deep four times in his last fifteen days, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — 88.9 mph average exit velo with a barrel in his last eighteen balls in play back it up. He's a right-handed bat, and Great American Ball Park's short side is left field, which is exactly where a right-handed pull hitter is working tonight.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Angels — week of 7/27
Walbert Ureña
Monday's Astros game at home already happened. Sunday's Brewers game, also at home, is the only one left on his week, with a 3.26 xERA on the season. Start him Sunday at home.
regression_watchKC @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.69 ERA vs 7.33 xERA
Sugano's ERA and xERA are almost three runs apart, the widest gap on the board — a 44.9% hard-hit rate and a strikeout rate that isn't missing enough bats to cover for it. Results have been running well ahead of what he's actually allowing.
P 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
two_start_weekCincinnati Reds — week of 7/27
Chase Burns
Tuesday's Guardians start at home is already played. Sunday's Pirates game, also at home, is what's left, and a 3.19 xERA backs the call. Start him Sunday.
cooling_offWSH @ ATL
Mauricio Dubon: .477 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Foster Griffin
Dubon's cold — .477 OPS over his last 15 days against a .704 season mark. He also draws his weaker side tonight, a .662 mark against lefties like Griffin, so nothing about the matchup helps him out of it.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Gerrit Cole
Same road trip as Fried, a day behind him — White Sox already played Tuesday, Cubs still ahead on Sunday. One start left to plan for, at a 3.29 xERA. Start him Sunday.
ownedTEX @ HOU
Christian Walker vs Nathan Eovaldi: .429
Walker's 6-for-14 with two homers lifetime against Eovaldi, a .429 mark whenever they've faced off. He's cold right now otherwise, .649 OPS over his last 15 days, but this particular matchup has a history of working out for him.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
streakingMIL @ LAA
LAA have lost 4 straight
Angels have dropped four straight and been outscored by seven runs over the skid, 3-6 in their last nine. A team playing from behind more nights than not right now.
P team lost 6-2
streakingPIT @ CIN
CIN games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Reds have gone under in four straight, real scoring at 6.3 runs a game against lines that had been near 10.4. Tonight's number comes down to 7.5 and still sits above that recent pace.
P final total 15 vs 7.5
streakingDET @ OAK
OAK games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Athletics have gone under in four straight, 6.5 runs a game against lines near 9. Tonight's number jumps to 10.5 though — the biggest gap between the recent pace and the actual line on this list.
P final total 14 vs 10.5
streakingTEX @ HOU
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers have cleared the over four times running, 9.3 combined runs a game against a 7.5 average line. Pairs with Texas being 6-2 in Eovaldi's starts lately — they're winning by scoring, not by shutting teams down.
P final total 13 vs 8
starter_formMIN @ SEA
Bryce Miller: 6.19 ERA over his last 3 starts
Miller's last three starts have gone sideways — 6.19 ERA, WHIP nearly double his season number. That's a real recent slide, not a blip.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
regression_watchMIL @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.34 ERA vs 4.91 xERA
Johnson's gap between ERA and xERA is the widest of any starter here, but it's not from getting barreled — 34.6% hard-hit, 8.1% barrel rate, both reasonable. The 1.54 WHIP is the real issue, too many free baserunners for how well he's actually being hit.
P 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
cooling_offNYY @ CHC
Trent Grisham: .385 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
Grisham's cold, a .385 OPS over his last 15 days against a .702 season mark. He does get his better side tonight though — a .717 mark against lefties like Imanaga — so there's at least a favorable matchup underneath the slump.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatiguePHI @ BAL
BAL's bullpen has covered 14.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 14.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Grant Wolfram (2.3) and Yennier Cano (2). PHI's pen has thrown 9.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-6
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Hunter Greene: 7.06 ERA vs 4.69 xERA
Greene's ERA is two runs worse than his xERA, and the stuff underneath explains why that should close — 12 strikeouts per nine, a 5.2% barrel rate, opponents hitting under their expected average against him. Reads like bad innings bunching up more than a pitcher getting hit hard all night.
P 6 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
heat_checkDET @ OAK
Jeff McNeil: 1.033 OPS in Last 15 Days
McNeil's at a 1.033 OPS over his last 15 days, way up from a .640 season mark that's been a down year for him. His total bases number tonight sits at 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 7/27
Keider Montero
Monday's home start against the Orioles already happened. Sunday sends him to the Athletics for the only game left this week, carrying a 3.48 xERA and a stream tag. Streamer — don't lock in the Athletics start blind, size it up again closer to Sunday.
starter_formNYY @ CHC
Shota Imanaga: 0.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Imanaga's allowed one earned run in his last 18 innings. Completely different pitcher than the 3.72 season number says right now.
P 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
fantasy_pickupsKC @ COL
Jac Caglianone
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .768 OPS, bats 3rd.
heat_checkKC @ COL
Salvador Perez: .881 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perez is at an .881 OPS over his last 15 days, up more than 250 points from his .628 season mark. Fifteen homers already this year, and his total-bases line tonight sits at just 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formMIN @ SEA
Zebby Matthews: 8.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Matthews has been rough his last three out — 14 earned runs in 15 innings, WHIP up nearly 60 points from his season mark. A real slide.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
heat_checkPIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: 1.089 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.089 OPS versus .731 for the season, 0.358 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
regression_tomorrowDET @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.45 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 6.45 ERA against a 4.05 expected ERA (2.4 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .246 vs .233 expected.
heat_checkARI @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .909 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a .909 OPS versus .653 for the season, 0.256 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsKC @ COL
Michael Massey
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .727 OPS, bats 5th.
cut_listSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Starts tonight for SF — 5.83 xERA behind a 4.6 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
regression_tomorrowDET @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.45 ERA vs 4.06 xERA
Perkins' ERA is running 2.4 runs ahead of his xERA, and neither the hard-hit rate nor the barrel rate looks alarming. A handful of extra hits falling in explains most of it — the process reads better than the line.
cut_listMIN tonight
Alan Roden
Still hitting 6th for MIN — 0.451 OPS, 0.189 AVG from the 6-hole.
rest_fatigueSF @ SD
13 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 13 innings over the last 3 games (Mason Miller (3) and Griffin Canning (3) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-7
fantasy_pickupsKC @ COL
Isaac Collins
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .708 OPS, bats 6th.
fantasy_pickupsKC @ COL
Lane Thomas
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.27 xERA) — .716 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_watchCHW @ TB
Nick Martinez: 2.46 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Martinez's ERA is almost two runs better than his xERA, and a 5.1 strikeout rate doesn't leave much margin for that gap to hold. Worth remembering against Tampa's 6-1 record in his starts — real number, shakier process underneath it.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .558 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
JJ Bleday's .558 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .800 season mark, down 0.242. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his stronger side: a .824 OPS vs RHP across 209 AB.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 2 BB
running_gamePIT @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds like to run — Henry Davis (48% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Henry Davis throws out 48% of runners who try him, one of the better marks around, and Cincinnati still runs plenty as a team, 0.7 steals a game. Good luck to whoever's on base against that combination tonight.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 0 bases
regression_tomorrowMIA @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.43 ERA vs 4.56 xERA
Thornton's ERA-xERA gap is one of the widest here, paired with a 44.4% hard-hit rate — loud contact and a sparkling average against rarely coexist for long. Tomorrow reads like a candidate for results catching down to the contact quality.
regression_watchPHI @ BAL
Andrew Painter: 7.06 ERA vs 5.21 xERA
Painter's ERA is 7.06 against a 5.21 expected mark, a run and a half of separation. Opponents are hitting .316 against a .272 expected — the results have been worse than the quality of contact he's actually allowing, even before you factor in that 1-7 team record.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
regression_tomorrowMIA @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.43 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIA. A 2.43 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (2.12 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .196 vs .265 expected.
heat_checkNYY @ CHC
Alex Bregman: .915 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .915 OPS spans the last 15 days (50 PA) against a .722 season baseline, a 0.193 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchSTL @ TOR
Kyle Leahy: 3.55 ERA vs 5.22 xERA
Leahy's ERA is nearly two runs better than his xERA, and hitters are squaring him up on half their batted balls with a 10.9% barrel rate. That kind of contact usually shows up on the scoreboard eventually.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
regression_watchKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .279 AVG vs .227 xBA
Moniak's hitting .279 this year against a .227 expected average on the same contact — a 52-point gap. His wOBA runs the same way, .373 against a .304 expected mark, so he's been getting more out of his contact than Statcast says he should.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez: .277 AVG vs .227 xBA
Esmerlyn Valdez's .277 average comes against a .227 expected (xBA) on 159 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .432 against a .367 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
Whatever's going on with Peralta right now, it's been bad everywhere — 11 earned runs in 13.7 innings his last three out. That overrides the home park split for me tonight.
closer_watchNYY @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
closer_watchMIL @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
closer_watchKC @ COL
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
ballpark_shiftMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.10 at Citi Field
Peralta's been notably better at Citi Field than on the road, 4.10 against 6.31. His last three starts have been bad everywhere regardless of ballpark though, so recent form matters more than the split tonight.
return_watchTOR — return listed 7/31
Jesus Sanchez
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, ankle) — 0.753 OPS this season.
return_watchTEX — return listed 7/31
Carter Baumler
Listed back 7/31 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
return_watchSEA — return listed 7/31
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 7/31 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
ownedWSH @ ATL
Luis Garcia Jr. vs Bryce Elder: .455
Garcia's 5-for-11 lifetime against Elder, a .455 mark in a small sample. He's also swinging a hot bat right now at .951 OPS over his last 15 days, so the recent form and the history are pointing the same direction tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
ownedPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds vs Hunter Greene: .313
Reynolds is 5-for-16 with a homer lifetime against Greene, a .313 mark in their history. He's cold right now — .526 OPS over his last 15 days — and Greene's stuff has actually been better than his 7.06 ERA suggests, so this one leans tougher than the history says.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
rest_fatigueDET @ OAK
DET's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Jacob Waguespack (3.7) and Drew Anderson (3) carried the load. OAK's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side won 13-1
regression_watchNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .257 AVG vs .300 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .257 against a .300 expected average (xBA) over 475 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .300 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Tyler Stephenson's vs. Right line (.760 OPS, 206 AB) sits well above his .613 mark the other way (53 AB). Tonight's starter Paul Skenes throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 2 BB
cut_listSTL tonight
Kyle Leahy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.22 xERA behind a 3.55 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
return_watchBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
starter_formKC @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 6.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sugano's last three starts have already delivered the correction his season-long gap pointed to — 6.48 ERA in that stretch, well worse than his 4.69 mark.
P 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
regression_watchDET @ OAK
Jeffrey Springs: 6.23 ERA vs 4.88 xERA
Springs' ERA is running over a run worse than his xERA — a .271 average against versus a .254 expected mark says balls have found grass more than the contact quality suggests they should. Points toward better results ahead, not worse.
P 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
starter_formMIL @ LAA
Shane Drohan: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Drohan's last three outings have run nearly two runs over his season ERA, 11 earned runs across 18.3 innings. Recent form's trending the wrong way.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
return_watchARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
starter_formSTL @ TOR
Kyle Leahy: 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts
Leahy's a different pitcher than his 3.55 season ERA suggests — three earned runs in his last 15 innings, WHIP down near 0.73. That's a real hot stretch, not a mirage.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
fantasy_pickupsDET @ OAK
Casey Mize
Streamer vs OAK — 3.08 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.
starter_formCHW @ TB
Nick Martinez: 0.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
One earned run in his last 13 innings. A 0.69 ERA and a WHIP under 0.90 — Martinez is locked in right now, whatever his season line says.
P 6 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .845 OPS, bats 3rd.
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/2
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.84 xERA
Zoomed out to the full season, Peralta's process still looks fine — 8.9 strikeouts per nine, just a 5.2% barrel rate — with the ERA gap tracing to balls finding grass more than bad stuff. Doesn't erase how ugly the last three starts have looked, but the season shape is better than the recent line.
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
Noelvi Marte: .321 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Noelvi Marte's .321 OPS over the last 15 days (28 PA) trails his .570 season mark, down 0.249. Tonight he draws RHP Paul Skenes — his stronger side: a .572 OPS vs RHP across 114 AB.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
regression_watchWSH @ ATL
Foster Griffin: 2.76 ERA vs 3.92 xERA
Griffin's ERA is more than a run better than his xERA, and a .217 average against versus a .246 expected mark is a lot of separation to keep holding onto. Worth pairing with that 7-0 team record — great number, a little fortunate underneath it.
P 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
cut_listSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.623 OPS, 0.237 AVG from the 2-hole.
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.628 OPS, 0.212 AVG from the 4-hole.
closer_watchNYY @ CHC
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 22 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
rest_fatigueSTL @ TOR
No off day for STL in 6 days
Cardinals haven't had a day off in six days while Toronto got one yesterday. That kind of stretch tends to show up in bullpen availability first — lines up with three St. Louis relievers already worked back-to-back.
P flagged side lost 1-3
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Heriberto Hernandez
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .788 OPS, bats 6th.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ NYM
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.72 xERA
Phillips is outperforming his xERA by over a run, and a 42.8% hard-hit rate is the number that stands out — more loud contact allowed than the ERA lets on, even if the barrel rate's kept the damage contained so far.
closer_watchPHI @ BAL
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 23 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
closer_watchARI @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
running_gameKC @ COL
Colorado Rockies like to run — Carter Jensen (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Colorado runs everywhere it can — 0.7 steals a game — but Carter Jensen has caught 40% of basestealers this year, well above league average. If they test him tonight, it's strength against strength, not a free bag.
P Colorado Rockies stole 0 bases
cut_listTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.635 OPS, 0.202 AVG from the 4-hole.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ NYM
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYM. A 3.52 ERA against a 4.71 expected ERA (1.19 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .241 vs .257 expected.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ LAA
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs LAA — 3.32 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.2 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .774 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Xavier Edwards
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .775 OPS, bats 2nd.
cut_listNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Still hitting 4th for NYY — 0.661 OPS, 0.232 AVG from the 4-hole.
regression_tomorrowMIL @ LAA
José Soriano: 3.29 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.29 ERA against a 4.34 expected ERA (1.05 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .242 expected.
cut_listPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.653 OPS, 0.225 AVG from the 4-hole.
first_inningSF @ SD
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of SF @ SD
Same story on the other coast — both clubs scoring first-inning runs in only 3 of their last 10. The number's basically a coin flip, so the market's not giving much of an edge either way.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
first_inningMIA @ NYM
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ NYM
Both sides have been quiet early here, first-inning runs in just 3 of 10 games apiece. Peralta's own first-inning number backs it up at .226 against; Junk's a bit shakier at .264.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
ownedWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams vs Bryce Elder: .400
CJ Abrams has owned Bryce Elder — 6-for-15, a .904 OPS across their history — and he's riding a 1.280 OPS over his last 15 games into tonight's rematch. History and current form are pointing the same direction.
P 1-for-2, 4 TB, 3 BB
regression_tomorrowMIL @ LAA
José Soriano: 3.29 ERA vs 4.35 xERA
Soriano's gap is real but modest, a run better than his xERA with hard-hit and barrel rates both sitting in the middle of the pack. Less urgent than the other regression cases on tonight's board.
regression_tomorrowMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser: 4.71 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Gasser's the rare arm running worse than his process says he should — 30.4% hard-hit, 6.4% barrel rate, both strong marks that don't match a 4.71 ERA. Reads like a handful of bad innings more than a real problem.
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo López: 3.64 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
López's gap is one of the smaller ones in this group, and the contact numbers back it up as mostly earned — 36.4% hard-hit, 7.7% barrel rate. Not much reason to expect a big swing from this one.
ballpark_shiftSTL @ TOR
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 3.00 ERA
Cease's road number is actually the better one here — 1.92 ERA away from Rogers Centre against 3.00 at home, even though .207 against at home is still plenty good on its own.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
cut_listBAL tonight
Dylan Beavers
Still hitting 1th for BAL — 0.668 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 1-hole.
running_gameMIN @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 13%
Seattle's already running at a good clip, 80 steals on the season, and Jeffers has caught just five of forty base-stealers. Every incentive says they keep testing him tonight.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser: 4.71 ERA vs 3.75 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs LAA. A 4.71 ERA against a 3.75 expected ERA (0.96 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .237 expected.
running_gameSF @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Drew Cavanaugh has caught just 15%
Drew Cavanaugh is throwing out just 15% of basestealers this season, 3-for-20, and San Diego already runs 1.3 times a game. That's about as green a light as this sport hands out.
P San Diego Padres stole 2 bases
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo López: 3.64 ERA vs 4.61 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 3.64 ERA against a 4.61 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .245 vs .256 expected.
regression_tomorrowPIT @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.85 ERA vs 4.75 xERA
Abbott's got the smallest ERA-xERA gap in the whole group — results and process are already lined up, nothing here to project forward either direction.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/5
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/5 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
first_inningMIN @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Mariners haven't scored in the first in ten straight games, and Miller's own first-inning number backs it up at .158 against. Matthews has been hit early on the other side though, .288 against in the first — this one's more about Seattle's bats than Minnesota's.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
regression_tomorrowPIT @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.85 ERA vs 4.74 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PIT. A 3.85 ERA against a 4.74 expected ERA (0.89 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .243 vs .258 expected.
first_inningPIT @ CIN
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pirates haven't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games. Skenes has been part of that story from the other side too, .200 against him in the first this season — early runs look like the tougher way to go tonight.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
fantasy_pickupsNYY @ CHC
Shota Imanaga
Streamer vs NYY — 3.65 xERA · 8.4 K/9 · 1.1 WHIP.
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsWSH @ ATL
Foster Griffin
Streamer vs ATL — 3.92 xERA · 8.2 K/9 · 1.03 WHIP.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
cut_listCIN tonight
Eugenio Suarez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.666 OPS, 0.202 AVG from the 6-hole.
cut_listNYY tonight
Anthony Volpe
Still hitting 6th for NYY — 0.668 OPS, 0.248 AVG from the 6-hole.
cut_listCHC tonight
Nico Hoerner
Still hitting 6th for CHC — 0.670 OPS, 0.257 AVG from the 6-hole.
first_inningKC @ COL
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Royals have managed one first-inning run in their last ten games. Sugano's actually been hit early himself this season, .333 against in the first, so Kansas City's cold start is doing more work here than anything he's bringing.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120
MLB · 4-1
L
Cubs ML -163
MLB · 2-0
L
Pirates ML -132
MLB · 7-8
L
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline -142
MLB · 6-1
W
Orioles ML -117
MLB · 4-6
W
Blue Jays ML -193
MLB · 1-3
W
Marlins ML +100
MLB · 5-2
L
Nationals ML +103
MLB · 2-6
W
Houston Astros ML -131
MLB · 2-11
L
Kansas City Royals ML -114
MLB · 1-3
W
Detroit Tigers ML -143
MLB · 13-1
W
San Diego Padres ML -156
MLB · 0-7
L
Mariners ML -164
MLB · 5-3
W
Brewers ML -175
MLB · 6-2
W
Boston Red Sox ML +113
MLB · 9-4

Props

L
Andrew Painter · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Andruw Monasterio · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 3
W
Brandon Young · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 5
L
Bryan Reynolds · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Bryce Miller · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 3
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 7
L
Chase DeLauter · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Chase Meidroth · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Christian Yelich · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Coby Mayo · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Corbin Carroll · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Daulton Varsho · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Dylan Cease · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 7
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Duran · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Foster Griffin · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 16
L
Francisco Alvarez · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Francisco Lindor · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 1
L
Jake Burger · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Jeffrey Springs · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Jo Adell · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Kodai Senga · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 3
W
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Michael Busch · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Michael Wacha · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 7
W
Miguel Vargas · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 2
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
W
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 2
W
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 5
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Ryan Waldschmidt · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 2
W
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Shane Drohan · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 4
W
Spencer Jones · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 1
W
Steven Kwan · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 2
W
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 2
L
Tyler Soderstrom · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 0
W
Vaughn Grissom · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 2
L
Vaughn Grissom · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 4
W
Zebby Matthews · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 2