MLB · Fri, Jul 31 · 7:10 PM

Marlins at Mets

O/U 8.5 · RL Mets -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mets· +100

Deadline Friday at Citi Field, and the Mets changed pitchers before anybody threw a warmup pitch. Freddy Peralta was supposed to have this game. Instead he's somewhere waiting on a phone to ring, and Kodai Senga is walking out to a mound he hasn't solved all season. That's the whole game right there. Everything else is decoration. Senga hasn't started a big league game since June 23. Seven starts this year, the longest of them 5 2/3, most of them finished before the fifth, and at this ballpark he's been meaningfully worse than he's been anywhere else. I don't think he's cooked — the forkball still misses bats at a rate most starters would trade a year of salary for — but a man coming back off a back problem with five weeks of rust and no feel for the zone is a three-inning proposition on a good night. Which means New York needs six innings out of a bullpen that woke up this morning one arm lighter after the Minter deal, put Cionel Pérez on the shelf with a forearm strain, and has already run Devin Williams out there two nights running. They're taping this one together with Syracuse call-ups on a day the front office is trying to sell everything that isn't bolted down. Miami isn't humming, and I'm not pretending otherwise. The bats have gone quiet for two weeks, and Janson Junk has a genuine problem with left-handed hitters that this lineup — Ewing, Benge, Young, Baty, plus Lindor and Polanco turning around — is built to go after. That's why this isn't a big number for me. But Junk gives you five, there's a clean set of arms behind him, and he's throwing in front of a dozen scouts with his next address on the line. The market moved eight cents on a Peralta-to-Senga swap. That's not enough. At even money I'll take the club that knows who's pitching the middle innings.

The pick & result

Published pick: Marlins ML +100
Published odds: +100
Result: Won
Final score: 5-2

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

It's deadline day at the Mets' park, and New York swapped out their starting pitcher before anyone even loosened up. Freddy Peralta was supposed to have this one. Instead he's sitting by a phone waiting to find out where he's playing next, and Kodai Senga is heading to the mound at a place that's given him fits all year. That's the whole game. Everything else is window dressing.

Senga hasn't pitched in the majors in over a month. He's made only a handful of starts this season, never got deep into any of them, usually out before the middle innings, and he's been noticeably worse at home than on the road. I don't think he's finished — that splitter of his still makes hitters look silly, and most pitchers would give up a year's pay for it — but a guy coming off a back injury with over a month of rust and no command is a three-inning guy on his best day. So New York needs most of the game out of a bullpen that just traded away an arm this morning, lost Cionel Pérez to a forearm injury, and has already used Devin Williams two nights in a row. They're patching this together with minor leaguers while the front office tries to sell off anything not nailed down.

Miami isn't playing great either, and I won't pretend they are. Their bats have been cold for a couple weeks, and Janson Junk really struggles against lefty hitters — and this Mets lineup, with Ewing, Benge, Young, Baty, plus Lindor and Polanco batting from that side, is built to take advantage. That's why I'm not making this a big play. But Junk should get you into the middle innings, there are fresh arms behind him, and he's throwing in front of a crowd of scouts with his own future on the line. The betting line barely budged when the Mets swapped pitchers. That's not nearly enough. At this price I'll take the team that actually knows who's pitching the middle of the game.

The full analysis

Senga hasn't started a big league game since June 23. Seven starts this year, the longest of them 5 2/3, most of them finished before the fifth, and at this ballpark he's been meaningfully worse than he's been anywhere else. I don't think he's cooked — the forkball still misses bats at a rate most starters would trade a year of salary for — but a man coming back off a back problem with five weeks of rust and no feel for the zone is a three-inning proposition on a good night. Which means New York needs six innings out of a bullpen that woke up this morning one arm lighter after the Minter deal, put Cionel Pérez on the shelf with a forearm strain, and has already run Devin Williams out there two nights running. They're taping this one together with Syracuse call-ups on a day the front office is trying to sell everything that isn't bolted down.

Miami isn't humming, and I'm not pretending otherwise. The bats have gone quiet for two weeks, and Janson Junk has a genuine problem with left-handed hitters that this lineup — Ewing, Benge, Young, Baty, plus Lindor and Polanco turning around — is built to go after. That's why this isn't a big number for me. But Junk gives you five, there's a clean set of arms behind him, and he's throwing in front of a dozen scouts with his next address on the line. The market moved eight cents on a Peralta-to-Senga swap. That's not enough. At even money I'll take the club that knows who's pitching the middle innings.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Freddy Peralta: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.24
Whatever's going on with Peralta right now, it's been bad everywhere — 11 earned runs in 13.7 innings his last three out. That overrides the home park split for me tonight.

PLATOON EDGE

Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Kodai Senga (RHP)
.885
Hicks is a different hitter against right-handers — .885 OPS over 266 at-bats versus .501 the other way. Senga's a righty and Hicks leads off for Miami tonight, so he's getting his side of the platoon in a matchup the Mets probably wish they could avoid.
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Kodai Senga (RHP), batting 4th
.852
Kyle Stowers carries a .852 OPS vs. Right (247 AB) against .492 the other way (70 AB), and faces RHP Kodai Senga from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

FIRST INNING

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ NYM
NRFI
Both sides have been quiet early here, first-inning runs in just 3 of 10 games apiece. Peralta's own first-inning number backs it up at .226 against; Junk's a bit shakier at .264.

BALLPARK

At Citi Field, Kodai Senga pitches to a 11.72 ERA
11.72
Senga's ERA at Citi Field is 11.72 over six starts this year, compared to 6.65 on the road, and hitters are batting .311 off him at home. Something about pitching in front of his own crowd hasn't worked for him this season.
Freddy Peralta's ERA drops to 4.10 at Citi Field
4.10
Peralta's been notably better at Citi Field than on the road, 4.10 against 6.31. His last three starts have been bad everywhere regardless of ballpark though, so recent form matters more than the split tonight.

TEAM RECORD

Mets 0-8 in Kodai Senga's last 8 starts
0-8
Mets have dropped eight in a row with Senga starting. That's on the whole team, not just him — but eight straight is eight straight, and Miami's the one hoping to make it nine tonight.

REGRESSION

Kodai Senga: 8.85 ERA vs 5.42 xERA
5.42
Senga's actual ERA is 8.85, but the expected number off his contact quality is 5.42 — a gap north of three runs. Opponents are hitting .280 against him with a .244 expected average, so the results have been uglier than the process, and most lines are still pricing off that 8.85.
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.84 xERA
3.84
Zoomed out to the full season, Peralta's process still looks fine — 8.9 strikeouts per nine, just a 5.2% barrel rate — with the ERA gap tracing to balls finding grass more than bad stuff. Doesn't erase how ugly the last three starts have looked, but the season shape is better than the recent line.

FANTASY PICKUPS

Otto Lopez
.845 OPS
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .845 OPS, bats 3rd.
Heriberto Hernandez
.788 OPS
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .788 OPS, bats 6th.
Xavier Edwards
.775 OPS
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .775 OPS, bats 2nd.
Kyle Stowers
.774 OPS
Pickup vs Kodai Senga (5.42 xERA) — .774 OPS, bats 4th.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 31, 2026 at 12:57 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betmgm, caesars, draftkings, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KODAI SENGAPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5
MLBNew York Mets· -110
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
An 8.85 ERA isn't one bad week — it's been the whole season, and the pitch-level numbers back it up. Hitters have a .420 expected weighted on-base average against his fastball and .608 against his cutter, and those two pitches are more than half of what he throws. His forkball is the only real swing-and-miss weapon in the mix. He's allowed two or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and tonight he's pitching at the park where his numbers are worst all season. The lineup across from him hits left-handed from the top to the middle of the order — Hicks, Stowers, Conine, Marsee, Mack — and left-handed bats have put up a 1.032 OPS against him this year. I don't need a total collapse for this to cash. I need one bad inning, and that's been the rule with him lately, not the exception.
Kodai Senga
Pitcher Earned Runs over 1.5
-110 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
New York Mets
An 8.85 ERA isn't one bad week — it's been the whole season, and the pitch-level numbers back it up. Hitters have a .420 expected weighted on-base average against his fastball and .608 against his cutter, and those two pitches are more than half of what he throws. His forkball is the only real swing-and-miss weapon in the mix.
He's allowed two or more earned runs in six of his last eight starts, and tonight he's pitching at the park where his numbers are worst all season. The lineup across from him hits left-handed from the top to the middle of the order — Hicks, Stowers, Conine, Marsee, Mack — and left-handed bats have put up a 1.032 OPS against him this year. I don't need a total collapse for this to cash.
I need one bad inning, and that's been the rule with him lately, not the exception.
GARY'S PICK
GRIFFIN CONINETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +184
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Conine's swinging it as well as anyone in that lineup right now — four home runs and a .947 OPS over his last two weeks. He's left-handed, walking into a matchup against a pitcher who has had no answer for left-handed hitting all season: a 1.032 OPS allowed with six home runs surrendered in well under 200 at-bats against lefties. Senga's two most-used pitches, the four-seamer and the cutter, are both getting hit hard by everybody who steps in against him, and Conine's contact right now is loud enough to take advantage of a mistake. He doesn't need a monster night to clear two bases — one extra-base hit does it — and he's been doing exactly that more often than this price accounts for.
Griffin Conine
Total Bases over 1.5
+184 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
Miami Marlins
Conine's swinging it as well as anyone in that lineup right now — four home runs and a .947 OPS over his last two weeks. He's left-handed, walking into a matchup against a pitcher who has had no answer for left-handed hitting all season: a 1.032 OPS allowed with six home runs surrendered in well under 200 at-bats against lefties. Senga's two most-used pitches, the four-seamer and the cutter, are both getting hit hard by everybody who steps in against him, and Conine's contact right now is loud enough to take advantage of a mistake. He doesn't need a monster night to clear two bases — one extra-base hit does it — and he's been doing exactly that more often than this price accounts for.
THE LONG SHOT
KYLE STOWERSHR OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +550
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Stowers has been the hottest hitter on either roster this week — three home runs in his last seven games, squaring balls up at nearly 97 miles an hour off the bat in that stretch with four barreled balls in sixteen chances. He's left-handed, and Kodai Senga has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — they carry an OPS over 1.000 against him, more than 150 points higher than what right-handers have managed. Stowers already has a home run on his card against Senga in a small four-at-bat sample. Exit velocity, barrel rate, and the platoon split all point the same direction. Betting the over.
Kyle Stowers
HR over 0.5
+550 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Miami Marlins
Stowers has been the hottest hitter on either roster this week — three home runs in his last seven games, squaring balls up at nearly 97 miles an hour off the bat in that stretch with four barreled balls in sixteen chances. He's left-handed, and Kodai Senga has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — they carry an OPS over 1.000 against him, more than 150 points higher than what right-handers have managed.
Stowers already has a home run on his card against Senga in a small four-at-bat sample. Exit velocity, barrel rate, and the platoon split all point the same direction.
Betting the over.
THE LONG SHOT
GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5
MLBMiami Marlins· +700
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Conine is carrying the best power surge on the board tonight — four home runs in his last fifteen games, and a .991 OPS with nine homers against right-handed pitching this season in well under a hundred at-bats. Kodai Senga leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch he throws, and it's the one that's been hit hardest against him all season, with opponents batting over .330 on it. Conine's own numbers against the four-seamer back that up — over .300 with a .696 slugging mark on the pitch this year. A hot bat matched against a pitcher's clearest weakness, at seven-to-one. Betting the over.
Griffin Conine
HR over 0.5
+700 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Miami Marlins
Conine is carrying the best power surge on the board tonight — four home runs in his last fifteen games, and a .991 OPS with nine homers against right-handed pitching this season in well under a hundred at-bats. Kodai Senga leans on his four-seamer more than any other pitch he throws, and it's the one that's been hit hardest against him all season, with opponents batting over .330 on it.
Conine's own numbers against the four-seamer back that up — over .300 with a .696 slugging mark on the pitch this year. A hot bat matched against a pitcher's clearest weakness, at seven-to-one.
Betting the over.
THE LONG SHOT
FRANCISCO ALVAREZHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Mets· +500
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Alvarez has three home runs in his last fifteen games and he's been driving the ball hard in that stretch — five hard-hit balls and two barrels in his last ten balls in play. He's a right-handed hitter with real over-the-fence power against right-handed pitching this year, and Janson Junk's slider and curveball have both been getting hit hard all season, the curveball especially — opponents are batting .333 off it. The wind is blowing out to left field at Citi Field tonight, which sits right in Alvarez's pull path. It's the shortest price on this board for a reason — the market's seeing the same form I am — but I still like it. Betting the over.
Francisco Alvarez
HR over 0.5
+500 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
New York Mets
Alvarez has three home runs in his last fifteen games and he's been driving the ball hard in that stretch — five hard-hit balls and two barrels in his last ten balls in play. He's a right-handed hitter with real over-the-fence power against right-handed pitching this year, and Janson Junk's slider and curveball have both been getting hit hard all season, the curveball especially — opponents are batting .333 off it.
The wind is blowing out to left field at Citi Field tonight, which sits right in Alvarez's pull path. It's the shortest price on this board for a reason — the market's seeing the same form I am — but I still like it.
Betting the over.
THE LONG SHOT
FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Mets· +650
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Lindor's running hot — two home runs and eight RBIs in his last seven games, three homers and twelve driven in over his last fifteen, and the contact quality backs it up with three barreled balls in his last twenty balls in play. He's a switch-hitter, which means he bats left-handed against Janson Junk tonight, and Junk has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — an .875 OPS against, compared to well under .600 against right-handers. That's about as clean a platoon matchup as this board offers. Betting the over.
Francisco Lindor
HR over 0.5
+650 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
New York Mets
Lindor's running hot — two home runs and eight RBIs in his last seven games, three homers and twelve driven in over his last fifteen, and the contact quality backs it up with three barreled balls in his last twenty balls in play. He's a switch-hitter, which means he bats left-handed against Janson Junk tonight, and Junk has been a completely different pitcher against lefties this year — an .875 OPS against, compared to well under .600 against right-handers. That's about as clean a platoon matchup as this board offers. Betting the over.

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