Pirates at Reds
O/U 8 · RL Pirates -1.5
Pirates ML-132
CONF 62%
LLostFinal 7-8
The read
Perfect weather down by the river, hot afternoon, and a ballpark where Pittsburgh just walked one off against a team most people figure is about to start trading players away. Elly De La Cruz was all over the field last night — three doubles, two stolen bases — and Cincinnati still barely scored. That tells you what you need to know about this series. Now Pittsburgh hands the ball to Paul Skenes, and Cincinnati counters with a guy making just his fifth start since doctors cleaned out his elbow back in the spring.
Hunter Greene still throws hard and his slider is about as tough to hit as anybody's. It's everything else I'm betting against. Over his last four starts hitters have been crushing the ball off him, and he lets a lot of it go in the air — in a park that eats fly-ball pitchers alive. His swing-and-miss has dropped every single time out. Take away the one gem against the Cubs and he's been giving up runs by the bucket. Skenes is the opposite. His earned-run number on the board is worse than how he's actually pitched, hitters aren't doing much of anything against him, and Cincinnati doesn't hit as a team to begin with. Last start he struck out eleven and hitters swung through him constantly. Whatever people were worried about with his velocity in June, nobody's touching him now.
The only reason this price is short is Pittsburgh's lineup, and that's fair. Reynolds is in a deep slump, O'Hearn's worse, Cruz and Horwitz have been out so long nobody accounts for them, and this group barely scores over the last ten games. But Brandon Lowe is locked in — he put one deep into the right-field seats off this same club last night — Nick Gonzales is swinging it well, and I don't need a big number, I need three runs. The other piece is the late innings. Cincinnati burned three relievers in one night to steal the opener, two more arms are hurt, and if Greene only gives them five, their manager is going back to a bullpen he already drained. Pittsburgh's best arms mostly rested. I'll pay the small price to get the better pitcher.
The full analysis
Clear sky over the Ohio River, 87 degrees at first pitch, and a ballpark that just got a walk-off out of a team everybody expects to be selling parts by Monday. Elly De La Cruz hit three doubles and stole two bases last night and Cincinnati still only scratched out three runs. That's the tell on this series. Now Paul Skenes walks out there against a man making his fifth start since they took bone chips out of his elbow in March.
Hunter Greene still runs it up to 98 and that slider still misses bats at a rate almost nobody in this league can match. It's everything around it I'm betting against. Four starts back, 46.6 percent hard contact allowed, an extreme fly-ball tilt in the one yard in this division that punishes fly balls, and a swing-and-miss rate walking backwards every time out — 33, 29, 23, 24. Outside the twelve-strikeout gem against the Cubs, he's given up seventeen earned runs in fourteen and two-thirds innings. Skenes is the other side of that coin. The 3.65 is what's on the board; the 2.82 underneath it is what he's actually been, and opponents are putting a .262 expected wOBA on him against a Cincinnati club hitting .230 as a team. Last time out he punched out eleven and missed on 41 percent of the swings taken against him. Whatever the velocity chatter was in June, the bats stopped touching him.
The reason this sits at only -132 is Pittsburgh's lineup, and that's a fair reason. Reynolds is 8 for his last 51. O'Hearn is worse. Cruz and Horwitz have been gone long enough that nobody's pricing them anymore, and this group has managed 3.2 runs a night over ten games. But Brandon Lowe is squaring everything up right now — he put one 402 feet into the right-field seats off this same club last night — Nick Gonzales is 21 for his last 57, and I don't need a crooked number, I need three. The other half of it is the seventh inning on. Cincinnati emptied Burke, Antone and Pagán all in one night to steal that opener, Santillan and Ashcraft are still on the shelf, and if Greene gives them five, Francona is reaching into a drawer he already opened. Pittsburgh's better arms mostly sat. I'll lay the short number with the better pitcher.
Props on this game
6Nick GonzalesOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-104
WActual 5
Gonzales might be the best bat on the field tonight that nobody's talking about. He's hitting .368 over his last fifteen games, he doesn't chase much and he doesn't miss much, and he's flat-out had Greene's number in the past — three hits in nine at-bats with barely any strikeout trouble. He's squaring balls up right now regardless of who's on the mound, and this is close to even money for a guy doing this three or four times a week lately. I'm taking it.
Nathaniel LoweOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+172
WActual 2
Lowe is having one of the better two-week stretches on either roster, and he's doing it from the side of the plate where he actually does damage — he hits right-handers a different way than lefties, and Skenes gives him exactly that look tonight. He's also more comfortable at home than on the road. He doubled last night and then beat out what looked like an inning-ending double play in the ninth to help cash the winning run, and he's shown all year he does his best work with runners on. Two total bases isn't much to ask from him right now.
Esmerlyn ValdezOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+335
LActual 0
Valdez has gone deep four times in his last fifteen days, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — 88.9 mph average exit velo with a barrel in his last eighteen balls in play back it up. He's a right-handed bat, and Great American Ball Park's short side is left field, which is exactly where a right-handed pull hitter is working tonight.
Against right-handed pitching for his career he's gone deep once every 12.7 at-bats, and Hunter Greene is the softer matchup on this mound tonight — 7.06 ERA, xERA still ugly at 4.68, and hitters are hard-hitting him 46.6% of the time since he came back from elbow surgery. No head-to-head history between them either way, so this is pure form-meets-matchup, and both point the same direction.
Cleanup spot gets him volume too.
Bryan ReynoldsOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+390
LActual 0
The batting line says cold — .157 over his last fifteen days — but the contact data underneath it says something different: ten hard-hit balls and three barrels in just nineteen balls in play over that same stretch. That's a hitter running into outs, not a hitter losing pop. He's also already got a track record against tonight's Reds starter specifically — a homer and a 1.075 OPS in sixteen career at-bats against Hunter Greene. Greene is letting hitters connect hard right now (46.6% hard-hit allowed, .332 xwOBA against), and Reynolds' underlying quality of contact is exactly the kind that tends to catch back up to the results.
Sal StewartOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+410
WActual 1
Stewart's put three home runs up in his last fifteen days and leads this Reds team in RBI on the year. Against right-handed pitching he's gone deep once every nineteen at-bats, and he's a right-handed bat with Great American's short left-field porch to work with tonight. The swing against him is Paul Skenes, who's been the best pitcher in this series by a wide margin — 2.82 xERA, only 6.6% barrels allowed all year — so I'm not pretending this is a soft matchup. But Stewart's current power stroke and the platoon/park fit are real enough to back him even against Pittsburgh's ace.
Elly De La CruzOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+428
LActual 0
De La Cruz is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now — 98.1 mph average exit velo with three barrels in nineteen balls in play over his last fifteen days — and at Great American Ball Park specifically he's gone deep once every seventeen at-bats for his career. He's 0-for-3 with five strikeouts in eleven career at-bats against Paul Skenes, so this isn't a matchup he's cracked personally, and Skenes is the best arm on the mound in this series. But De La Cruz doesn't need a friendly matchup to do damage — the bat speed and quality of contact are elite regardless of who's throwing — and he gets to do it at home tonight.
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