MLB · Fri, Jul 31 · 2:20 PM

Yankees at Cubs

O/U 9 · RL Cubs -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Yankees· -163

First pitch at 2:20 on the North Side, wind crossing the outfield left to right rather than carrying anything out to Waveland, and the Yankees walk into Wrigley having just been walked off twice in a row across town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in forty-eight hours and a lineup card that's been getting shorter all month. The Cubs come home off a 5-2 trip with Bregman swinging like it's October. I'm on Chicago on the moneyline at -163, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not reaching for the bigger number. Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six turns — the high-water mark is 5 2/3, and the last one was three innings and six earned in Philadelphia. He's already been bumped from a turn and used out of the bullpen this month, which tells you what the room thinks. Left-handed bats have hit .272 with an .812 OPS and ten homers off him, and Counsell's card runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. The sinker Warren throws better than a quarter of the time gets hit at .302; Crow-Armstrong hits sinkers at .411 with a .607 slug, and he's got three homers in the last week with the best contact numbers on either roster. When Warren comes out in the fifth, New York hands it to a bullpen that threw 11 2/3 innings in three days — Cruz on back-to-back days, Chivilli at 35 pitches across two of three. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter, a 38.6 percent whiff pitch, runs straight into the left-handed Yankee bats in Rice, Grisham and Jones, and Grisham is 5-for-46 over the last two weeks. Now the part that keeps me off the run line. Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher who has been most of a run worse at Wrigley than anywhere else, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball out — Goldschmidt has nine homers off left-handed pitching and he's leading off. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; thirteen different men have saved a game for them this year. And a good piece of the Cubs' hot fortnight is batting average on soft contact — Hoerner and Ramirez are both over .420 in fifteen days without a single barrel between them. That's a club that wins 4-2, not 9-1, especially with the wind knocking things down. So I want the game, not the margin. -163 is no gift and I won't pretend otherwise, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to chase can't score.

Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six turns — the high-water mark is 5 2/3, and the last one was three innings and six earned in Philadelphia. He's already been bumped from a turn and used out of the bullpen this month, which tells you what the room thinks. Left-handed bats have hit .272 with an .812 OPS and ten homers off him, and Counsell's card runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. The sinker Warren throws better than a quarter of the time gets hit at .302; Crow-Armstrong hits sinkers at .411 with a .607 slug, and he's got three homers in the last week with the best contact numbers on either roster. When Warren comes out in the fifth, New York hands it to a bullpen that threw 11 2/3 innings in three days — Cruz on back-to-back days, Chivilli at 35 pitches across two of three. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter, a 38.6 percent whiff pitch, runs straight into the left-handed Yankee bats in Rice, Grisham and Jones, and Grisham is 5-for-46 over the last two weeks.

Now the part that keeps me off the run line. Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher who has been most of a run worse at Wrigley than anywhere else, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball out — Goldschmidt has nine homers off left-handed pitching and he's leading off. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; thirteen different men have saved a game for them this year. And a good piece of the Cubs' hot fortnight is batting average on soft contact — Hoerner and Ramirez are both over .420 in fifteen days without a single barrel between them. That's a club that wins 4-2, not 9-1, especially with the wind knocking things down. So I want the game, not the margin. -163 is no gift and I won't pretend otherwise, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to chase can't score.

The pick & result

Published pick: Cubs ML -163
Published odds: -163
Result: Lost
Final score: 2-0

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

**Gary's Take**

First pitch is early afternoon at Wrigley, and the wind is blowing across the field instead of out toward the street, so nothing's flying out today. The Yankees come in off two straight walk-off losses on the other side of town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in two days, and their lineup card has been getting shorter all month. The Cubs are home after a winning road trip with Bregman swinging like it's the playoffs. I'm taking Chicago to win straight up, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not asking for more than that.

Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't gotten through six innings in any of his last six starts — his best was a hair under six, and his last one was three innings and six runs in Philadelphia. He's already been skipped in the rotation and used in relief this month, which tells you what his own club thinks. Lefty hitters have hammered him, with double-digit home runs off him, and Counsell's lineup runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. Warren's sinker — which he throws a lot — gets hit hard, and Crow-Armstrong absolutely crushes that pitch, with three homers in the last week and the best contact of anyone on either team. So when Warren exits in the fifth, New York hands the ball to a bullpen that's been carrying a heavy load for three straight days, with Cruz up on back-to-back nights and Chivilli piling up pitches. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter is a swing-and-miss weapon, and it runs right into the Yankees' lefties in Rice, Grisham and Jones — and Grisham has been ice cold for two weeks.

Now, here's why I'm not laying the bigger number. Imanaga gives up fly balls and has been noticeably worse at Wrigley than on the road, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball over the fence — Goldschmidt has a pile of homers off lefties and he's hitting leadoff. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; more than a dozen different guys have closed a game for them this year. And a chunk of the Cubs' hot stretch is soft contact finding grass — Hoerner and Ramirez are both scorching over the last two weeks without a single hard-hit ball between them. That's a team that wins by two, not by eight, especially with the wind knocking balls down. So I want the win, not the margin. This price is no bargain and I won't pretend it is, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to come from behind can't score.

The full analysis

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Shota Imanaga: 0.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
0.50
Imanaga's allowed one earned run in his last 18 innings. Completely different pitcher than the 3.72 season number says right now.

PLATOON EDGE

Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
1.043
Goldschmidt's a completely different hitter against lefties — 1.043 OPS in 117 at-bats compared to .588 against right-handers. Imanaga's a lefty and Goldschmidt's leading off tonight, right into the matchup that's worked for him all year.

HEAT CHECK

Nico Hoerner: .955 OPS in Last 15 Days
.955
Hoerner's at a .955 OPS over his last 15 days, close to 300 points above his .670 season mark — a real hot stretch for a guy who doesn't usually run numbers like that.
Alex Bregman: .915 OPS in Last 15 Days
.915
That .915 OPS spans the last 15 days (50 PA) against a .722 season baseline, a 0.193 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

COOLING OFF

Ben Rice: .672 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
.672
Rice has cooled off — .672 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .931 season mark. Imanaga's a lefty, technically Rice's weaker side, but an .813 OPS against lefties this year is still plenty good, so 'weaker side' is relative here.
Trent Grisham: .385 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
.385
Grisham's cold, a .385 OPS over his last 15 days against a .702 season mark. He does get his better side tonight though — a .717 mark against lefties like Imanaga — so there's at least a favorable matchup underneath the slump.

STREAK

NYY games have gone UNDER 6 straight
U6
Five straight unders for the Yankees, real scoring around 7.2 runs a game against lines that had been sitting near 10.7. Tonight's number comes down to 9 — the market's adjusted some, but there's still room between that and where these games have actually landed.

REGRESSION

Nico Hoerner: .257 AVG vs .300 xBA
.300
Nico Hoerner is hitting .257 against a .300 expected average (xBA) over 475 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .300 against a .327 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.

CLOSER WATCH

Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
5 SV
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
David Bednar
22 SV
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 22 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).

FANTASY PICKUPS

Shota Imanaga
3.65 xERA
Streamer vs NYY — 3.65 xERA · 8.4 K/9 · 1.1 WHIP.

CUT LIST

Jasson Dominguez
0.661 OPS
Still hitting 4th for NYY — 0.661 OPS, 0.232 AVG from the 4-hole.
Nico Hoerner
0.670 OPS
Still hitting 6th for CHC — 0.670 OPS, 0.257 AVG from the 6-hole.
Anthony Volpe
0.668 OPS
Still hitting 6th for NYY — 0.668 OPS, 0.248 AVG from the 6-hole.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored July 31, 2026 at 12:57 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
MICHAEL BUSCHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5
MLBChicago Cubs· -128
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Warren's problem all year has been the glove side. Ten home runs surrendered to lefties in 224 at-bats against five in 178 to righties. He's also been generally hittable of late — averaging under five innings over his last six starts, with the Yankees losing five of those six. Busch is a lefty bat who's already shown he can find him: three at-bats, a hit, a homer, small sample but it lines up with everything else here. His day-game numbers this season, a .286 average and an .857 OPS, are also a good deal stronger than the mild slump he's carried the last two weeks, and today's a 2:20 start at Wrigley. The lineup around him is rolling too, over six runs a game across the last two weeks. Getting to a hit, a run, or an RBI shouldn't take much against this version of Warren.
Michael Busch
H+R+RBI over 1.5
-128 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Chicago Cubs
Warren's problem all year has been the glove side. Ten home runs surrendered to lefties in 224 at-bats against five in 178 to righties. He's also been generally hittable of late — averaging under five innings over his last six starts, with the Yankees losing five of those six.
Busch is a lefty bat who's already shown he can find him: three at-bats, a hit, a homer, small sample but it lines up with everything else here. His day-game numbers this season, a .286 average and an .857 OPS, are also a good deal stronger than the mild slump he's carried the last two weeks, and today's a 2:20 start at Wrigley. The lineup around him is rolling too, over six runs a game across the last two weeks.
Getting to a hit, a run, or an RBI shouldn't take much against this version of Warren.
GARY'S PICK
PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBChicago Cubs· -113
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed bat who does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching — nineteen home runs against righties this season against five against lefties — and Warren fits that profile, a scuffling righty the Yankees have lost five of his last six starts with. He's doing it right now too: three homers in his last seven games, with 93 mph average exit velocity and six barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, so it isn't just a hot roll of the dice. Warren's sinker and sweeper are both getting hit for xwOBA numbers near .390 this season, and those are pitches a free-swinging lefty like this sees plenty of. One extra-base hit gets this done, and nobody on this roster is squaring the ball up better right now.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Total Bases over 1.5
-113 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Chicago Cubs
Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed bat who does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching — nineteen home runs against righties this season against five against lefties — and Warren fits that profile, a scuffling righty the Yankees have lost five of his last six starts with. He's doing it right now too: three homers in his last seven games, with 93 mph average exit velocity and six barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, so it isn't just a hot roll of the dice. Warren's sinker and sweeper are both getting hit for xwOBA numbers near .390 this season, and those are pitches a free-swinging lefty like this sees plenty of. One extra-base hit gets this done, and nobody on this roster is squaring the ball up better right now.
THE LONG SHOT
SPENCER JONESHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +600
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1
Jones has been squaring balls up about as hard as anyone in this lineup lately — a three-run homer two games ago in Chicago, and the contact since has stayed loud even beyond that one swing. That's not a guy searching for his timing, that's a guy finding barrels. He's also getting a real look in the middle of a Yankees order that's without Judge, Stanton, and now Bellinger — this isn't a token start, it's everyday opportunity to keep doing damage. Against Imanaga specifically, the home runs have actually come more often against lefties than righties this season, so I'm not treating the same-side matchup as the problem it would normally be. What keeps me from leaning on this harder: Jones hasn't hit in day games this year, and this one gets going in the early afternoon at Wrigley, with weather that could move through as the day goes on. I'd rather this happen early than count on him seeing a full game's worth of pitches. That's a lean, not a max play, but the swings I'm seeing right now are real.
Spencer Jones
HR over 0.5
+600 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1
New York Yankees
Jones has been squaring balls up about as hard as anyone in this lineup lately — a three-run homer two games ago in Chicago, and the contact since has stayed loud even beyond that one swing. That's not a guy searching for his timing, that's a guy finding barrels.
He's also getting a real look in the middle of a Yankees order that's without Judge, Stanton, and now Bellinger — this isn't a token start, it's everyday opportunity to keep doing damage. Against Imanaga specifically, the home runs have actually come more often against lefties than righties this season, so I'm not treating the same-side matchup as the problem it would normally be.
What keeps me from leaning on this harder: Jones hasn't hit in day games this year, and this one gets going in the early afternoon at Wrigley, with weather that could move through as the day goes on. I'd rather this happen early than count on him seeing a full game's worth of pitches. That's a lean, not a max play, but the swings I'm seeing right now are real.

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