Yankees at Cubs
O/U 9 · RL Cubs -1.5
Cubs ML-163
CONF 58%
LLostFinal 2-0
The read
**Gary's Take**
First pitch is early afternoon at Wrigley, and the wind is blowing across the field instead of out toward the street, so nothing's flying out today. The Yankees come in off two straight walk-off losses on the other side of town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in two days, and their lineup card has been getting shorter all month. The Cubs are home after a winning road trip with Bregman swinging like it's the playoffs. I'm taking Chicago to win straight up, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not asking for more than that.
Will Warren is the reason. He hasn't gotten through six innings in any of his last six starts — his best was a hair under six, and his last one was three innings and six runs in Philadelphia. He's already been skipped in the rotation and used in relief this month, which tells you what his own club thinks. Lefty hitters have hammered him, with double-digit home runs off him, and Counsell's lineup runs Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez, Busch, Happ and Conforto all from that side. Warren's sinker — which he throws a lot — gets hit hard, and Crow-Armstrong absolutely crushes that pitch, with three homers in the last week and the best contact of anyone on either team. So when Warren exits in the fifth, New York hands the ball to a bullpen that's been carrying a heavy load for three straight days, with Cruz up on back-to-back nights and Chivilli piling up pitches. Meanwhile Imanaga's splitter is a swing-and-miss weapon, and it runs right into the Yankees' lefties in Rice, Grisham and Jones — and Grisham has been ice cold for two weeks.
Now, here's why I'm not laying the bigger number. Imanaga gives up fly balls and has been noticeably worse at Wrigley than on the road, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball over the fence — Goldschmidt has a pile of homers off lefties and he's hitting leadoff. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; more than a dozen different guys have closed a game for them this year. And a chunk of the Cubs' hot stretch is soft contact finding grass — Hoerner and Ramirez are both scorching over the last two weeks without a single hard-hit ball between them. That's a team that wins by two, not by eight, especially with the wind knocking balls down. So I want the win, not the margin. This price is no bargain and I won't pretend it is, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to come from behind can't score.
The full analysis
First pitch at 2:20 on the North Side, wind crossing the outfield left to right rather than carrying anything out to Waveland, and the Yankees walk into Wrigley having just been walked off twice in a row across town. No flight, no time change — but two extra-inning marathons in forty-eight hours and a lineup card that's been getting shorter all month. The Cubs come home off a 5-2 trip with Bregman swinging like it's October. I'm on Chicago on the moneyline at -163, and I'll tell you exactly why I'm not reaching for the bigger number.
Now the part that keeps me off the run line. Imanaga is a fly-ball pitcher who has been most of a run worse at Wrigley than anywhere else, and the one thing this Yankee lineup still does is hit the ball out — Goldschmidt has nine homers off left-handed pitching and he's leading off. Chicago's ninth inning is whoever's warm; thirteen different men have saved a game for them this year. And a good piece of the Cubs' hot fortnight is batting average on soft contact — Hoerner and Ramirez are both over .420 in fifteen days without a single barrel between them. That's a club that wins 4-2, not 9-1, especially with the wind knocking things down. So I want the game, not the margin. -163 is no gift and I won't pretend otherwise, but the better team is home, the shakier starter is on the mound, and the side that has to chase can't score.
Props on this game
3Michael BuschOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-128
LActual 0
Warren's problem all year has been the glove side. Ten home runs surrendered to lefties in 224 at-bats against five in 178 to righties. He's also been generally hittable of late — averaging under five innings over his last six starts, with the Yankees losing five of those six.
Busch is a lefty bat who's already shown he can find him: three at-bats, a hit, a homer, small sample but it lines up with everything else here. His day-game numbers this season, a .286 average and an .857 OPS, are also a good deal stronger than the mild slump he's carried the last two weeks, and today's a 2:20 start at Wrigley. The lineup around him is rolling too, over six runs a game across the last two weeks.
Getting to a hit, a run, or an RBI shouldn't take much against this version of Warren.
Pete Crow-ArmstrongOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-113
LActual 0
Crow-Armstrong is a left-handed bat who does the bulk of his damage against right-handed pitching — nineteen home runs against righties this season against five against lefties — and Warren fits that profile, a scuffling righty the Yankees have lost five of his last six starts with. He's doing it right now too: three homers in his last seven games, with 93 mph average exit velocity and six barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, so it isn't just a hot roll of the dice. Warren's sinker and sweeper are both getting hit for xwOBA numbers near .390 this season, and those are pitches a free-swinging lefty like this sees plenty of. One extra-base hit gets this done, and nobody on this roster is squaring the ball up better right now.
Spencer JonesOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+600
WActual 1
Jones has been squaring balls up about as hard as anyone in this lineup lately — a three-run homer two games ago in Chicago, and the contact since has stayed loud even beyond that one swing. That's not a guy searching for his timing, that's a guy finding barrels.
He's also getting a real look in the middle of a Yankees order that's without Judge, Stanton, and now Bellinger — this isn't a token start, it's everyday opportunity to keep doing damage. Against Imanaga specifically, the home runs have actually come more often against lefties than righties this season, so I'm not treating the same-side matchup as the problem it would normally be.
What keeps me from leaning on this harder: Jones hasn't hit in day games this year, and this one gets going in the early afternoon at Wrigley, with weather that could move through as the day goes on. I'd rather this happen early than count on him seeing a full game's worth of pitches. That's a lean, not a max play, but the swings I'm seeing right now are real.
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