Giants at Padres
O/U 8.5 · RL Padres -1.5
San Diego Padres ML-156
CONF 64%
WCashedFinal 0-7
The read
Deadline day in San Diego, late start out west, and these two teams showed up with totally different things on their minds. San Francisco just got a beautiful goodbye start from Robbie Ray in the opener — six innings, one run, a win that felt more like he was showing off for every other team looking to trade for him than anything about this series. San Diego woke up another game behind in the wild card chase with a roster that could look completely different by Monday.
Tonight the Giants go with Carson Whisenhunt, a rookie lefty with barely three big-league starts, and every time I look at how he gets outs I end up in the same spot. His changeup is legit — hitters swing and miss on it constantly. Everything else is trouble. His fastball is average speed and hitters have crushed it. Righties in particular have hit him hard with power; lefties haven't done much, but he's barely faced any. San Diego is running out seven right-handed bats, and the top of that lineup is red hot — Tatis, Rengifo, Machado, France and Merrill are all locked in over the last two weeks, and this team has been scoring way above its season pace. Whisenhunt hasn't finished six innings yet either. Once he's gone, San Francisco turns to a bullpen that just used Caleb Kilian two nights in a row and has Ryan Walker running an ugly earned run number.
The fair knock on me is how San Diego's night is set up. Bradgley Rodriguez is really a reliever with a starter's title — big velocity, a changeup hitters can't touch, but he's gone one inning at a time all year. That leaves eight innings to a staff that just burned Randy Vásquez and JP Sears in last night's loss, with Wandy Peralta up two days running. That's the soft spot and I won't pretend otherwise. What keeps me on San Diego anyway: Morejon, Estrada, Matsui and Mason Miller are all fresh, Petco keeps fly balls in the park, and the Giants show up without Daniel Susac, the bat that did all the damage in the opener. Behind Arraez and Devers, this lineup is Eldridge, Adames and McCray all ice cold over the last two weeks. I'll pay the price — Padres to win straight up, at a worse number than it opened this morning, which is exactly why this is a solid play and not a big one.
The full analysis
Deadline day in San Diego, first pitch just before ten Eastern, and these two clubs walked into Petco tonight looking at completely different calendars. San Francisco got Robbie Ray's goodbye letter in the opener — six innings, one run, a 4-1 win that played more like an audition tape for 29 other front offices than a statement about this series. San Diego woke up a game further from the wild card with a roster that might look different by Monday.
Tonight the Giants hand the ball to Carson Whisenhunt, a rookie lefty three big-league starts into his career, and I keep landing in the same place when I look at how he gets his outs. The changeup is a real pitch — hitters are missing on nearly half their swings against it. Everything else is a problem. The four-seam sits 92.8 and hitters are batting .400 off it. Right-handed bats have hit .277 with an .844 OPS and three home runs against him in 47 at-bats; lefties have almost nothing off him, but he's faced twelve of them total. San Diego is sending seven right-handed hitters at him, and the top of that order is locked in — Tatis, Rengifo, Machado, France and Merrill have all been north of .875 over the last two weeks, and this club has scored 5.8 a game in that stretch against a season number of 4.2. Whisenhunt hasn't gotten past 5.2 innings yet. When he's out, San Francisco goes to a pen that's used Caleb Kilian back-to-back nights and carries Ryan Walker at 7.52.
The honest argument against me is the shape of San Diego's night. Bradgley Rodriguez is a reliever wearing a starter's label — 98 on the fastball, a changeup hitters have managed .133 against, but he's worked one inning at a time all season. That means eight innings from a staff that just spent Randy Vásquez for 65 pitches and JP Sears for 3.2 in last night's loss, with Wandy Peralta up two days running. That's the crack here and I'm not pretending it isn't. What keeps me on San Diego anyway: Morejon, Estrada, Matsui and Mason Miller are all rested, Petco takes the ball out of the air, and the Giants arrive without Daniel Susac, the bat that did all the damage in the opener. Behind Arraez and Devers this lineup is Eldridge at .184 over fifteen days, Adames at .208, McCray at .188. I'll lay it — Padres moneyline at -156, ten cents worse than it opened this morning, which is exactly why this is a firm play and not a big one.
Props on this game
2Ty FranceOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+125
WActual 2
France is running as hot as anyone in this lineup, 18 hits in his last 53 at-bats with five home runs mixed in, and tonight's matchup plays right into it. Whisenhunt's four-seamer is the pitch that's supposed to set up everything else, and instead it's the one getting hunted all season. France has already shown he does damage against that exact shape of pitch, and his numbers against changeups, Whisenhunt's other primary weapon, are even better. A right-handed bat against a left-hander who's allowing hard contact at a 41 percent clip, in a lineup full of the same look — one extra-base knock covers this number, and everything about how he's swinging it points that direction.
Manny MachadoOVER 2.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+140
LActual 2
Machado has four homers and nine RBI over his last two weeks, and the pitch he's living on right now — the four-seam fastball, where he's slugging .652 for the season — is exactly the pitch Whisenhunt can't keep off the barrel. This isn't a rookie nibbling around contact; he's throwing that fastball nearly 40 percent of the time and it's getting hit at a .400 clip. A combined hit-run-RBI line of three just needs Machado to keep doing what he's already doing most nights against a pitcher who's given him no reason to expect otherwise.
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