Daily archive

2026-08-01

The stored Gary board for Sat, Aug 1. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB3:07 PM

Cardinals @ Blue Jays

**Gary's Take** Saturday afternoon in Toronto, and the Cardinals are handing the ball to a kid who's never pitched in the big leagues before. Quinn Mathews, first career start, against a Blue Jays lineup full of right-handed hitters who've never faced him and can't watch tape on him. When the odds came out this morning, Toronto was a modest favorite. By now they're a much bigger one. That whole move is the betting market getting nervous about a name nobody recognizes, and I'll happily take the other side when the market panics. Now look at who you'd be paying up for. Toronto has a losing record, sits dead last in their division, isn't even at .500 at home, and has barely been scoring three runs a night over the last two weeks. Guerrero still hasn't hit a home run in this ballpark all season — he came within inches Friday and the whole place acted like he'd won something. Okamoto, Straw and Schneider have all been close to automatic outs the last couple weeks. Gausman is a good pitcher, and the underlying numbers say he's thrown better than his run prevention shows, but his team has lost every one of his last six starts. That's not tough luck — that's a lineup that gives its starter a few runs and expects perfection. This price says the Blue Jays win about two out of every three games. This version of that team isn't beating anybody two out of three. The relief situation flipped overnight too, and I don't think the odds have caught up. St. Louis lost Friday for one reason: their three best late-inning arms were all unavailable after pitching back-to-back days, so the eighth inning went to guys who shouldn't have been out there. All three rested last night and they're available today. Toronto, meanwhile, has already leaned on Varland twice in three game days. And the one Cardinal who's genuinely locked in right now, Burleson, does his best work against right-handed pitching — big average, big power numbers, crushing the ball, and the deeper numbers say he's actually been a little unlucky on top of that. If Mathews gives me five decent innings and hands it to a fresh bullpen, this underdog is very much alive. I'm on the Cardinals.

Cardinals ML+141

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62%

MLB4:10 PM

White Sox @ Rays

**Gary's Take** Saturday afternoon game indoors in St. Petersburg, and Tampa has some pride to win back. Chicago hit four home runs last night — one banged off the catwalk in the roof — and turned a first-place matchup into an embarrassment. The Rays hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen to settle things down. The White Sox go with Jordan Hicks for an inning or two, then turn it over to a rookie. That pitching setup is the whole game for me. Hicks throws as hard as anyone alive and has a breaking ball hitters miss more often than they hit, but he also gives away free bases at a steady clip, and free bases in a quiet ballpark are exactly how this Tampa team gets rallies started — they steal bases about as well as anybody. Behind him comes Noah Schultz, a young lefty who hasn't pitched deep into a game in weeks, walking into a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters and Caminero — who has been mashing in this building — hitting third and waiting for him. Rasmussen has a weakness of his own: lefties with power can hurt him, and Chicago rolls out a bunch of them. But the Trop kills fly balls, and this Chicago group does its damage at night, not at four in the afternoon. In daylight they look like a totally different team. Then it comes down to the bullpens, and that's not close. Tampa's best relievers all sat out last night's blowout and come in fresh — Kelly, Cleavinger, and a closer who has been nearly impossible to score on all summer. Chicago used its long reliever for three innings on Friday and now needs a thin bullpen to cover whatever the rookie can't, on the second day of a six-game road trip, their sixth game in seven days, night game into a day game. Games in this dome tend to stay tight, and the team with the better late innings wins more of those than the odds give it credit for. The price has gone up since this morning and I don't love paying extra after the move, but I'm taking it. Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays ML-175

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62%

MLB4:10 PM

Marlins @ Mets

**Gary's Take** Saturday afternoon in Queens, third game of a four-game set, first pitch a little after four with a steady wind blowing in off the bay and carrying out toward left field. Miami won Friday night, got back to a winning record, and pulled within striking distance of the last playoff spot. The Mets opened as the favorite this morning and the price on them has only gone up since. That's what I want to talk about, because I don't think they earned it. The whole reason to pay that price is Zac Thornton, and Thornton's shiny run prevention is sitting on a foundation that doesn't hold it up. Five big league starts. Hitters are crushing the ball off him — squaring it up hard, way more than you'd want — and the pitch he leans on most, his cutter, gets hammered whenever hitters get a good look at it. He's been great at keeping runs off the board and totally ordinary at keeping hitters from hitting him hard, and eventually those two things meet in the middle. Meanwhile the team behind him is well under .500, and the club in the other dugout is above it — playing without their cleanup hitter, having lost the season series, and coming off a Friday where they scratched a starting pitcher five hours before first pitch just to protect a trade. Minter is already gone. Peralta, Holmes and Raley are on the block between now and Monday night. Miami went into this same week and decided to hang onto Alcantara. One of these clubhouses is trying to win a ballgame in August and the other is waiting for the phone to ring. The argument against me is real and I'll say it out loud: Thornton is a lefty and Miami's best bats are lefties too — Stowers, Conine, Hicks. Conine hitting ninth against a lefty tells you the Marlins know it. Phillips hasn't gone deep into any of his July starts, so McCullough is dipping into the bullpen early with Faucher and Zuber both used yesterday, and Miami has been rough on the road. That's a real pile of concerns. It just isn't a pile worth that price. A team over .500 getting paid to win against a team well under it — one that keeps losing the close ones and has its best late-inning arms sitting in a departure lounge — is a bet I'll take every time, and I'd rather take the straight win than pay up to buy the extra run and a half. Marlins to win outright.

Marlins ML+113

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61%

MLB4:10 PM

Twins @ Mariners

It's a Saturday afternoon in Seattle, seventy degrees, and the wind's blowing out toward center field. The Mariners come into this one having lost eight of their last ten. The price on them has been climbing all day — this morning you could get Seattle a lot cheaper than you can right now. That jump isn't about their bats. That jump is about the guy they're pitching. And look, Logan Gilbert has earned it. He barely lets anybody on base, he throws seven different pitches, and hitters flat-out miss his splitter and curveball. But this price asks me to believe a lineup that's barely hitting anything and scratching out about three runs a night is going to hand him a lead. Cal Raleigh is in a deep slump. Julio's had a rough week at the plate. Crawford's wrist knocked him out Thursday, Raley's forearm scratched him this morning, and the guys filling in for them aren't why anybody bets a baseball game. Minnesota, on the other hand, has hit four home runs in two days after a quiet month. Ryan Jeffers is swinging it and has already taken Gilbert deep once. And Connor Prielipp — whose numbers look worse than he's actually pitched — comes in on six days rest, has already faced this exact Seattle lineup this year, and gave up one hit that day. His curveball gets more swings and misses than anything Gilbert has except the splitter. He doesn't need to be great this afternoon. Here's the honest risk: Prielipp gets pulled early, he hasn't finished six innings in any start this year, and Minnesota's bullpen has Gómez going a third straight day, which pushes Minter — who just got called up this morning and hasn't even unpacked — into a big spot before he's settled. Seattle's got Muñoz and Speier rested since Tuesday. That's a real argument for the favorite. It's just not an argument at this price. This ballpark holds down both teams, the total is set low, and low-scoring games get decided by a couple of swings, not by which bullpen looks better on paper. Give me the team that's actually hitting, take the underdog price, and make Seattle prove everybody right.

Minnesota Twins ML+143

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62%

MLB6:40 PM

Pirates @ Reds

Saturday night by the river, first pitch just before seven, and Cincinnati has been squeezing the life out of this series — two wins, both by a single run, both decided in the final couple innings on a ground ball that got somebody out at the wrong base. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row and hasn't looked anything like the club that was adding pieces at the deadline. And yet the price on them went the wrong direction: this morning you could have gotten the Pirates cheaper, and by afternoon the board had made them more expensive. When the market moves toward a team that just lost four straight, that isn't people getting emotional. That's somebody doing the math. Here's the math. Braxton Ashcraft brings serious heat and a curveball hitters miss on more than a third of the time they swing at it, and he's actually kept runs off the board better than his earned run number looks — hitters just aren't squaring him up, so the results should have been friendlier. Andrew Abbott is the other kind of pitcher. His run number is real; how he got there isn't. In this ballpark he gives up a lot more damage than he does on the road, he leans on a straight fastball nearly half the time and hitters have hammered it, and the last time he faced this Pittsburgh lineup they took him deep three times before he got out of the sixth. The Pirates are running seven right-handed hitters out there tonight, and right-handed hitters are exactly who Abbott gives home runs to. Brandon Lowe has been scorching over his last handful of games. Nick Gonzales has been raking for two weeks. That's the side I want holding the bats. Then there's what each dugout has left once the starters are done. Cincinnati emptied five relievers Friday and used Pagán both nights — this is game seven of an eleven-game homestand, six games in seven days, and those arms are running on fumes. Pittsburgh went out this morning and traded for a closer, which is what a team does when it knows exactly where it's been losing games. And I keep coming back to the bottom of the Reds' lineup: Suárez, Trevino, Friedl, and McLain just back from injury — that group has been giving away outs for a week, and tonight they get high heat and a nasty breaking ball. Losing two one-run games isn't the same as getting beat up twice. Pittsburgh scores more runs and has the better arm going tonight, and I'm fine paying a little more than I would have at five in the morning.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML-126

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62%

MLB7:05 PM

Phillies @ Orioles

Saturday night in Baltimore, hot out, and the wind is pushing toward left field. The Orioles get a shot at a team that's already flat on its back. Philly has dropped four in a row and eight of their last ten. Last night they gave their bullpen a two-run lead in the seventh and Gunnar Henderson erased it with one swing. The betting line opened with the Phillies as a modest favorite this morning and money has pushed them up since. That's the market piling onto a club that hasn't won a game in a week. Here's what I keep coming back to: who's actually in the batter's box. Cristopher Sánchez has been very good this year, but almost all of it comes from wiping out lefty hitters — they can barely touch him and have taken him deep just once all season. Righties, though, hit him hard and have gone deep on him eleven times. Baltimore is starting six right-handed bats — Mayo, Ward, Alonso, O'Neill, Encarnacion-Strand and Rogers — and burying their only two lefties, the guys Sánchez actually handles, at third and eighth. Alonso has crushed exactly the pitches Sánchez throws, and Sánchez doesn't have much else to go to. The other way around, Shane Baz leans on a nasty curveball a third of the time and gets hitters flailing at it well outside the zone, and Philly is trotting out a bunch of lefties who've been chasing everything for two weeks. Harper, Marsh and Crawford have all been guilty of it, and Marsh has barely gotten a hit in the last two weeks. Then there's the seventh inning, where this Phillies team keeps falling apart. Kerkering can't find the plate and needed a small mountain of pitches just to get two outs last night. Alvarado has been getting lit up. Duran is legitimately great, but somebody has to hand him a lead first, and Philadelphia failed to do that ten separate times in July. Baltimore's relievers have been quietly outstanding — Wells and Garcia have thrown a ton of innings with very few runs allowed — and their arms barely worked last night, ten and seventeen pitches. The price got worse for the home team today while the matchup on the field got better for them. I'll take the Orioles.

Orioles ML+127

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64%

MLB7:10 PM

Rangers @ Astros

First place in the West flipped hands last night in Houston, and it wasn't close — the Astros ran away with it. Now Houston gives the ball to a guy making just his second start since elbow surgery, and Texas answers with Jacob deGrom. Every gut instinct says pay up for the better arm. But the market barely favors Texas here, and it's actually come down from where it opened this morning. When a matchup that looks this lopsided on paper prices out close to a coin flip, the number is telling you something the paper isn't. Here's what I think it's saying: deGrom isn't finishing this game. He's been pulled early each of his last three outings, cut short in Anaheim with his hip bothering him, and hitters have been putting the bat on his pitches more and more with every start. Texas isn't hiding it — they're taking him one outing at a time. So this thing lands in the hands of a bullpen on the fifth day of a road trip, one that just burned Marco Gonzales, leaned hard on Luis Curvelo before shipping him back to the minors this morning, and had to hand the ninth inning to Nicky Lopez — an infielder, who's hitting ninth again tonight. They signed a guy today just to have a warm body available. Meanwhile Josh Hader has barely thrown since Tuesday, Bryan King and AJ Blubaugh each did light work last night, and Espada can go grab Blanco early the second it turns sour without thinking twice. Blanco is going to give up runs. He walks people, he gets hit hard, and Texas loaded up with lefties and put Seager back in the middle of the order to attack him. I'm not going to pretend that's a good matchup for Houston. But the Rangers haven't been scoring much over their last five games, and they still have to get twenty-seven outs — with the final third of those coming from arms running on empty against a lineup that pounded out hit after hit last night, with Peña and Alvarez turning the order over all evening. Give me the home team getting paid in a game the market has already called even.

Astros ML+104

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65%

MLB7:15 PM

Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Saturday night on the lake, and the price already told you everything. Cleveland opened as a modest favorite this morning and by now they're a much heavier one — that whole move came from one name on a lineup card. Kohl Drake is a rookie lefty who's barely pitched in the majors and hasn't pitched well when he has; Parker Messick has been Cleveland's most reliable starter all summer. The market saw those two names and moved like the game was already over. What it didn't account for is that Cleveland can't hit right now. They've barely scored over the last two weeks and have been blanked three times in their last ten. Look at how tonight's lineup sets up: Angel Martinez is hitting fifth and hasn't had a hit in a long while, David Fry behind him is in the same drought, and the bottom two spots — Hedges and Rocchio — have both been close to automatic outs the last couple weeks. That's the back half of the order giving away at-bats. Arizona's won seven of ten and has been scoring nearly twice as much over that same stretch, and it's not just their best guys — Vargas, Waldschmidt and McCann at the bottom are all hitting, and Moreno seems to reach base every time up. There's also a matchup here the price ignores. Drake's changeup is the one pitch he actually puts hitters away with — guys chase it constantly and swing through it a ton — and Cleveland's three most dangerous bats all happen to struggle badly against that exact pitch. Ramirez, DeLauter and Bazzana have all been weak against changeups, and the underlying numbers back it up. Drake didn't throw it much in his first two starts, but against this lineup he ought to go to it early, and I think he will. Arizona won the opener, they've got the healthier bats, the ballpark doesn't juice offense, and I'm getting paid a plus price to back the team that's been the better one every single day for two weeks.

Diamondbacks ML+149

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62%

MLB7:15 PM

Nationals @ Braves

Saturday night in Atlanta, first pitch a little after seven. The Braves have already won the first two of this series, they've been on top of their division since June, and there's a trade deadline Monday that everybody in that clubhouse swears they aren't thinking about. But the game isn't the interesting part — the price is. This morning Washington was a much longer shot than they are right now. Somebody spent the morning betting the Nationals, and that pushed the cost of taking Atlanta down with it. I'm getting the Braves cheaper than the price they opened at. Same two teams, same lineups, just a discount. Here's why I don't care who moved it. Miles Mikolas throws a sinker about a quarter of the time and hitters absolutely tee off on it — that's not a pitch, that's a delivery service. And there's no bad luck hiding in his numbers either; he's getting hit exactly as hard as it looks. Tonight he walks into a lineup stacking six lefties in front of him, and lefties have taken him deep plenty this year. Olson hits sinkers. Baldwin hits sinkers. Harris hits sinkers. Acuña has done things to sinkers this year that belong in a museum. His one real weapon is the slider, but that's a pitch you use once you're ahead in the count — he has to get there first, and he doesn't miss enough bats to get there often. Look at his last six starts and he's been yanked early over and over. He's been protected all season, pitched behind openers, given extra rest. Tonight he's out there with none of that cover. The case against me is Reynaldo López, and it's fair. He hasn't gone six innings all year, he's coming off shoulder surgery, and Atlanta just cut loose the arm that ate three innings last night. So they'll need four or five out of the bullpen. Fine — Iglesias, Lee and Dodd all had Friday off and are fresh, and Karinchak came up today. Washington needs the same four or five from a bullpen that's been leaky all year and got 63 pitches out of Trevor Williams last night. And here's what nobody's pricing in: left-handed hitters are the one thing López handles well, and Washington is running Wood, García, Abrams, Lile and Vivas at him. Their best bats are walking right into his strength. Add in a Washington defense that's given away far more free bases than Atlanta's, and this is the better team, at home, with the better starter and the better relievers behind him — and the market just marked it down for me. Braves.

Braves ML-171

CONF

70%

MLB7:15 PM

Yankees @ Cubs

The wind is howling in at Wrigley tonight, blowing hard from center field straight back at the hitters — one of those nights where the flag tells you more about what's coming than either starting pitcher does. And the betting line has been all over the place. The Yankees opened this morning as the favorite and by game time they're the underdog. That's not a small adjustment, that's the market tearing up its first answer and writing a new one. When a price moves that much in a single day, the job is to figure out what changed and then decide whether the move went too far or not far enough. My read: not far enough. What changed is the lineup card. New York is limping through the tail end of a long road trip, playing nearly every day, with a couple of those games dragging into extra innings on the South Side, and Boone finally gave people the day off. Ben Rice — their big home run bat, the one guy opposing pitchers actually build a plan around — is out. So are Wells and Grisham. Stack that on top of Judge, Stanton and Bellinger already being gone, and what's left is Goldschmidt and a bunch of guys hoping they're still on this roster next week. That group has barely been scoring for two weeks now with more talent than it has tonight, and yesterday it scratched out almost nothing. Max Fried is far and away the best pitcher in this ballpark and I'm not going to pretend otherwise — but he's just back from a couple months out, he's been on a short leash both times out, and nobody's letting him go deep. Get past the middle innings and the Cubs are swinging against a bullpen that just traded away Doval this morning. And the wind does something very specific to David Peterson. His whole problem is that hitters square him up and hit the ball hard, especially right-handers, and the ball keeps leaving the yard on him. A stiff wind blowing in from center is the single best thing that can happen to a guy like that — the balls that usually land in the seats die at the warning track instead. Fried doesn't need that help; he keeps the ball on the ground anyway. Peterson does need it, and tonight he's got it. Meanwhile the only way the Yankees have shown they can score in this park is the exact thing the wind wipes out — their runs Friday came on home runs with nobody on. The Cubs score by stringing hits together, with Hoerner and Bregman swinging hot right now, and that kind of offense still works with the flag pointing the wrong way. So I'll pay the worse price. That's just the cost of being right about why it moved. Give me the Cubs.

Cubs ML-125

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64%

MLB8:10 PM

Royals @ Rockies

It's a little after eight at night in Denver, ninety-one degrees, not a cloud in the sky, and the flags out in left field are blowing straight toward the seats. Two teams here with nothing left to play for — sixty games to go and the trade deadline already came and went on both of them. Colorado won the opener behind a great start from Tomoyuki Sugano, which may have been his last one in that uniform. Tonight they hand the ball to Ryan Feltner, and that's a whole different story. Feltner has been getting hit hard. His last three starts have been a disaster — barely more than eleven innings and he gave up seventeen runs in them. Hitters are squaring him up and crushing the ball at a rate you almost never see, he's already given up a pile of home runs on the season, and now he's doing it a mile above sea level with the wind pushing balls out to left. Luinder Avila isn't a polished pitcher — he walks too many guys and rarely gets deep into a game — but he throws hard, keeps the ball on the ground instead of in the air, and hitters barely square him up compared to Feltner. In this ballpark, that's the guy I want on my side. The case against me is Kansas City's offense. They've barely scored the last two weeks, two of their best hitters are hurt, and they managed one run on Friday. But look under the slump — their guys are hitting the ball as hard as anybody, they're just hitting it right at people. Balls don't get caught in Denver the way they do everywhere else. And once the starters come out, Kansas City's bullpen is fresh, with nobody having pitched on back-to-back days, while Colorado has run the same two arms into the ground the last few days out of a bullpen that already gives up runs in bunches. On top of that, the price on the road team has drifted a touch in my favor since this morning. I'll take the underdog and the little extra money that comes with it.

Royals ML+109

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62%

MLB8:40 PM

Giants @ Padres

Nice Saturday afternoon in San Diego — clear sky, comfortable, a light breeze coming in off the bay. The Padres were sitting near the bottom of the National League for most of the first three weeks of July, and now they're one game away from a playoff spot. It's the third game of a four-game set, the series is tied, and the two teams have split everything they've played this year. San Diego was a modest favorite this morning, and the price has climbed since word got around about last night's shutout. I don't like paying extra for what everybody just watched. But what's underneath this game matters more to me than the price move does. Here's the thing about the Giants' starter, Tyler Mahle: lefty hitters have had a rough time with him all year, righty hitters have hit him hard. San Diego is starting six righties tonight, and their hottest bats are all on that side — Tatis, France and Machado are locked in, with Fermin and Bowen behind them. Mahle also isn't fooling anybody lately; his main fastball is most of what he throws, and hitters haven't been missing it for about a month. On the other side, Walker Buehler isn't the pitcher he used to be and his season numbers say so. But he's noticeably better at home than on the road, because his breaking stuff still plays and this ballpark eats the fastball mistakes that got him beat up in Chicago and against Arizona. And the lineup he's facing is banged up and cold — Chapman isn't coming back this weekend, Schmitt's knee has him out a while, Eldridge is in a bad slump and striking out a ton, and Adames and Ramos have been quiet for two weeks. Devers is the only guy in there I'd really worry about. The bullpen looks like a problem for San Diego but I don't think it is. They leaned hard on Matsui and Márquez to finish the shutout, so their long guys are tired — but those aren't the arms you need in a tight eighth inning. Mason Miller is rested and has been nearly untouchable, with Morejon and Estrada fresh behind him. San Francisco's late-inning options are a guy who's been getting hit hard all year and another who can't find the strike zone. Tied game in the seventh, I know which side I'd want. The honest risk is Buehler: he can absolutely give up a bunch of runs early and disappear in the fourth, which would force San Diego to piece it together with their leftovers. That's exactly why I'm just taking San Diego to win, not asking them to win by a certain number.

Padres ML-144

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61%

MLB9:10 PM

Red Sox @ Dodgers

Saturday night in Los Angeles, the two-time champs just got hammered at home the night before, and their best pitcher takes the mound to stop the slide. That's the story everyone's telling. Here's what actually caught my eye: the price on the Dodgers this morning was a lot cheaper than it is right now, and it moved a long way in a single day. Willson Contreras took a fastball off the helmet Friday and he's out — that's real news and it deserves some of that move. It doesn't deserve all of it. When a price runs way past the news behind it, the extra is people paying for a big name and a bad night, and I'm happy to sell them both. Start with the pitchers, since that's what this price is really about. Yamamoto's overall numbers are gorgeous, but they're not the numbers he puts up in this ballpark — he's been noticeably worse at home across ten starts, much better on the road, and the underlying stuff backs up the home version, not the pretty one. That's half a season telling you which guy shows up here. Now the rookie, Payton Tolle: his plain earned-run number looks worse, but underneath it he's actually been better than the ace by the measures that predict what comes next, with mid-nineties heat from the left side and a strikeout for nearly every inning. The market is paying top dollar for the résumé and getting a discount on the kid because his surface number looks ordinary. There's a real gap between these two tonight — just nowhere near as big as the one I'm being charged for. I'll admit the honest part: Boston's lineup is banged up and cold. The leadoff man can't buy a hit, another guy can't square anything up, two more are in deep slumps. That's why they're the underdog. But look at the other side — two of their best bats aren't even playing tonight, one guy's in an ugly slump swinging through everything, another hasn't had a hit in five games, and another isn't hitting the ball hard at all. Both teams are short-handed. Only one of them got handed a big price bump for it. Then the late innings: Boston burned two arms last night but has its two best relievers rested and sharp, while the Dodgers dumped a full workload out of one arm, a chunk out of another, and lost a third to the injured list this morning. Boston also runs wild — nearly twice as many steals — and their catcher's been throwing runners out. I think this one's still tight in the seventh, and if it is, I want the underdog price and the better bullpen. Red Sox to win outright.

Red Sox ML+149

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62%

MLB9:38 PM

Brewers @ Angels

Nice night in Anaheim, and the only thing that changed about this game today happened in a front office, not a training room. The Angels pulled their starting pitcher because the trade deadline is Monday and the phone keeps ringing. The betting market did the rest — Milwaukee was barely favored when I looked this morning, and now they're a solid favorite. That's a big price move for a scratch that isn't even an injury. Look at who actually takes the mound instead. Brent Suter has barely gone more than an inning in either of his starts this year and threw a bunch of pitches Thursday, so tonight is an opener and then a whole parade of relievers. That part's real. But the bullpen isn't what's been losing games for this team — their relievers threw a clean stretch just last night, a couple of arms are well rested, and they called up fresh help this morning. The rotation is the leak: their starter last night got knocked around, didn't finish five, and got sent down for it. On the other side, Milwaukee's guy is a lefty whose problem is right-handed hitters — they hit him hard and they run into home runs against him, and his main pitch is the one they punish most, while he rarely misses a bat with it. The Angels are stacking their lineup with righties. And he doesn't go deep every time out, so Milwaukee is covering the back half with its own bullpen — one that's had two arms up two days running, another that worked last night, and lost a piece to a trade this morning. I'm not talking myself into the Angels winning. They've barely scored for two weeks and have lost almost everything for a month. That's not a club you back to go take something. So I'm looking at where the overreaction shows up loudest. At this price the book says Milwaukee wins comfortably most of the time it wins at all — by more than a run in the vast majority of them. Against a team that plays one-run games constantly, in a neutral park, with both bullpens running on fumes late in a long road trip. I'll buy the win. I won't buy the margin. Angels plus the run and a half.

Angels +1.5-126

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64%

MLB9:40 PM

Tigers @ Athletics

**Gary's Take** It's ninety-one degrees in West Sacramento, the wind is blowing straight out to center, and last night's scoreboard still says Detroit 13, Oakland 1. That number did all the work overnight. This game opened with Detroit as a modest favorite this morning, and now you have to lay well over a dollar-eighty to win a dollar on them. That's a huge jump in a few hours, all off a lefty's name and a blowout everybody watched. When a price runs that far that fast, somebody already got paid for knowing something, and it wasn't me. Here's what the 13-1 hides: it was 2-1 in the eighth. Two to one. Detroit hung eleven runs in the last two innings on a bullpen that was completely out of gas, and the guy who gave up seven of them, Luis Morales, got sent down to the minors this morning. He's not here tonight. What is here is Framber Valdez, who's been getting hit hard all year and whose main pitch, the sinker, hitters are batting over .300 against — in a ballpark that favors hitters, in ninety-one-degree air, with the flag pointing dead center, against a lineup stacking six righties against him. He's already given up ten homers to righties this season. Jack Perkins has the worse-looking record but has actually pitched better than his numbers, with a changeup that gets swings and misses almost half the time. Judge those two on what they've actually done instead of who they are, and they're nowhere near as far apart as that price says. I'm not telling you Oakland wins this. They're way under .500, they've lost eight of their last ten, and their best bats aren't in tonight's lineup. That's a fine reason to make them an underdog. It's how *big* an underdog that I'm fighting, so I'll take the price that pays me for keeping it close instead of needing the win. Detroit is under .500 on the road and has won only twelve one-run games all season — they either blow you out or they lose tight ones. Oakland has played thirty one-run games and split them right down the middle. I need one thing tonight: nine innings that stay within a run and a half. Give me the Athletics and the run and a half at plus money, and let Detroit prove last night wasn't two innings of garbage time dressed up as a blowout.

Athletics +1.5+104

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60%

Player props

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman

Gausman's control has been the real story of his last two months, more than the ERA. He's walked multiple hitters in nearly every turn through the lineup since late June, and nothing about tonight looks like the outing where that changes. He's at home, where he's typically been fine, but fine has never meant crisp with him — the splitter he leans on is built to get chases, not called strikes, and when he rides it this heavily the free passes come along with the whiffs. I'll take the walks showing up again tonight.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks+108

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

George Springer

Springer's the best bat on the field today regardless of who's on the mound for St. Louis. He's been on base or hitting safely almost every game this month, and that kind of form doesn't need a settled book on the opposing pitcher to keep producing — even against a rookie making his big league debut, a hitter seeing the ball this well finds a way to poke one through. I'm backing the player, not waiting on the matchup to prove itself first.

OVER 0.5 Singles+106

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is doing pretty much everything right now — ten hits in his last seven games, four of them leaving the yard, on base in seventeen straight. He's a genuinely different hitter against right-handers than lefties, with an OPS well north of 1.000 in that split, and Rasmussen throws right-handed. He's already gone deep twice against this Tampa Bay staff in this series alone. All this needs is one hit, one run, or one RBI out of him, and that's been the floor of his week, not the ceiling.

OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI-188

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Chase Meidroth

Meidroth's been one of the more disciplined bats in this lineup the last two weeks — a .295 average with two homers and nine RBI over his last fifteen games, and he's getting there without chasing his way into outs. He's already got a hit off Rasmussen in his limited career looks, and hitting eighth doesn't change what this prop is asking for: a hit, a run, or an RBI, any one of them. He's found his way onto that stat line nearly every game this month.

OVER 0.5 H+R+RBI-166

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Kyle Stowers

Kyle Stowers is running as hot as anyone in this lineup right now — four home runs in his last seven games, a recent average exit velocity near 95 mph, and five barrels across his last eighteen batted balls. That's not a guy fighting for line-drive singles, that's a guy squaring the ball up consistently.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor has been the best hitter on this field for two weeks running — three home runs and a 1.099 OPS over his last seven games, four barrels in his last twenty batted balls, and he already took Phillips deep in this series. Digging into the pitch-type numbers, Lindor's expected weighted on-base average against the sinker — Phillips' most-used pitch at over a quarter of his mix — sits at .500 even though the actual batting average on it hasn't caught up yet at .200.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+123

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

Logan Gilbert

Gilbert's the best arm on the mound today by a wide margin, and T-Mobile Park plays right into his hands. The breaking stuff has been nasty all year — the curveball and slider are legitimate miss-bat pitches, and the splitter gets guys expanding the zone constantly.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+116

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

Ryan Jeffers

Jeffers is DH-ing tonight, so there's no catching gear slowing him down, and he's been one of the hottest bats in this lineup — three homers and an OPS pushing .900 over his last couple weeks. He's also seen tonight's starter before and hit him hard, small sample or not, and he's locked into the two-hole so he's getting his looks early and often. A guy swinging it this well, in this lineup spot, with his legs fresh, clears a hit plus a run or an RBI more often than not. I'll take the price.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+118

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart leads the majors in RBIs and he's not slowing down. Last night alone he drove in four runs, including the go-ahead two-run homer off Paul Skenes and the two-run single that tied it back up in the eighth. Over his last two weeks he's driving in a run and a half a game and hitting .307 with runners in scoring position, and he bats second behind a De La Cruz who's reaching base close to half the time right now. I only need him to drive in one, and that's been closer to a coin flip going his way than the price suggests.

OVER 0.5 RBI+202

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales is seeing the ball as well as anyone in this lineup. He's hitting .377 over his last fifteen games, twenty-three hits in sixty-one at-bats, and his swing-and-miss rate has dropped into the low twenties, which tells me it's contact, not just balls finding holes. He's hitting fifth for the better offense in this series and multi-hit nights have been his normal the last two weeks, not the exception. I don't have anything on him against Abbott specifically, but I don't need history when the form is this loud.

OVER 1.5 Hits+230

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Lindor

He already went deep on this same Miami pitching staff last night, the 150th home run of his career as a Met, and that's three in his last seven games. The way he's getting there is the part I like — four balls barreled up in his last twenty in play, with a walk-up approach that isn't chasing to make it happen, under twenty percent whiff and right around twenty percent chase over that stretch.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Kyle Stowers

Four home runs in his last six games, and the contact backs it up — five barrels in his last eighteen balls in play, exit velocity sitting near the top of the whole board tonight. What actually changed is the launch angle: he's been putting the ball in the air more this past week than he was over the month before it, and that's the difference between hard contact that dies on the track and hard contact that clears the fence.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Junior Caminero

Caminero hit one 453 feet off Chicago's pitching last night, and tonight he gets a sinker to work with — Jordan Hicks throws it more than half the time, and Caminero has turned that pitch into one of the best matchups of his season, slugging well over .650 against it. Hicks is taking the ball in a new role tonight, his first look as an opener after doing all his work in relief this year, and Caminero bats third, which means he sees him early and fresh, before there's any book on how Hicks handles this job. His power numbers at home this season run well ahead of his road numbers, and he's carrying real heat into this series. A right-handed masher getting an early look at a sinker-heavy arm in a brand new role is exactly the kind of spot I want to be in.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Ryan Jeffers

Jeffers has actually gone deep off Gilbert before — 3 for 8 with a home run in his career looks at him, and that's not just noise, it plays right into what he does against right-handers as a rule: a .932 OPS with eight home runs in just over a hundred at-bats against them this season. Gilbert misses a lot of bats, but his four-seamer is the pitch that's been getting hurt, sitting near a .350 expected weighted-on-base against it, and that's exactly the pitch a locked-in right-handed hitter like Jeffers is looking to do damage on. He's been a different hitter on the road all year, over 1.000 OPS away from home, and he's carrying a four-RBI, one-homer week into tonight. Everything here points the same direction.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Dominic Canzone

Canzone is the hottest bat in this whole game, and it's not an empty streak — his expected numbers this season are actually a touch ahead of his real production, meaning the underlying contact has been even better than the results, not worse. He's gone deep three times in his last week alone, he's a .933 OPS hitter at home this season, and he's a .973 OPS hitter in day games specifically, which is exactly what today is. He's also got a real track record of doing power damage against left-handed pitching, which lines up with Prielipp on the mound. And if this one stays close into the middle innings, Minnesota's bullpen has been shaky enough this year that I like Canzone's odds of seeing a mistake somewhere along the way.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami has four home runs in his last six games, and it isn't empty stats — he's been squaring balls up at a rate that stands out even in this lineup, with exit velocity and barrel contact well above where he was a month ago. He's on a 17-game on-base streak and hunting the ball in the air right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Nathaniel Lowe

Andrew Abbott is a lefty who's actually allowed more home run pop to right-handed hitters than lefties this season, and Nathaniel Lowe is the mirror image of that: he can't do much against left-handed pitching, but turn him loose on a right-hander and he's a real threat, twelve homers and an .865 OPS in that split. Two separate ways of reading this at-bat, both pointing the same way.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Kody Clemens

Clemens has gone deep three times in the last two weeks, including a walk-off grand slam against Kansas City two nights ago, and he's not just running hot off mistakes — his whiff rate over this stretch is the cleanest of anyone on this board, so the swing decisions are as sharp as the results. He's got real power against right-handed pitching this season, fourteen home runs worth, and he's actually hit more of them on the road than at home. Gilbert keeps the average down against lefty bats, but he's actually given up more home runs to them than to righties, and Clemens is exactly the swing that shape favors.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez has done real damage against left-handed pitching this season, seven home runs in just 48 at-bats, an eye-opening rate for a right-handed bat, and Andrew Abbott throws left-handed. Abbott himself has actually given up home runs at a better clip to right-handers than to lefties this year, so both halves of this matchup line up the same direction.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+325

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Heriberto Hernandez

Hernandez is tied for the team lead in home runs, and his expected numbers say the season line is underselling him — expected slug sits well above actual slug, same story on expected weighted-on-base versus the real number. That's a hitter who's been squaring balls up without getting paid for it yet, and that tends to correct. He gets the side of the plate he wants tonight, too, right-handed against a left-hander in Thornton. The swing-and-miss stretch is the real hesitation here and I won't pretend it isn't, but this is a power bet, not a contact bet, and the gap between what he's earned and what he's shown is wide enough to take a shot on at plus-450.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Jordan Walker

Gausman doesn't fit the profile you'd expect from a splitter-heavy right-hander — he's actually given up nearly double the home run rate to right-handed bats this year compared to lefties. Walker hits right-handed out of the two-hole, which puts him right in the lane where Gausman has been the most hittable, not the least. He's been quiet at the plate the last couple weeks, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise, but a home run drought for a hitter with this kind of raw power is more often just a lull between loud contact than a sign anything's actually wrong. At this price I don't need him locked in, I need Gausman to leave one pitch over the plate, and tonight's matchup says that's more likely against a righty than his overall numbers would suggest.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB HR · White Sox @ Rays

Ryan Vilade

Vilade has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games and this price still treats him like an afterthought at the bottom of Tampa's order. He's turned into a real threat with runners in scoring position this year, and with the top of this lineup getting on base in front of him, he should get his chances tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Sal Stewart is a big reason Cincinnati is up two games in this series, and he's made a habit of it against this specific Pittsburgh staff — four RBI and the go-ahead homer off Paul Skenes two nights ago, five RBI in the series overall. He leads all of baseball in RBIs right now, and the contact quality has backed up the results lately, over ninety-four miles an hour average exit velocity with multiple barreled balls in his recent games.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+432

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

Encarnacion-Strand is doing more right now than a hot streak usually explains — three home runs and eleven driven in over his last fifteen days, and the quality of contact backs it up, a fifth of his balls in play going for barrels in that stretch. He's also getting the matchup his numbers say he wants: left-handed pitching, where his track record this year is lopsided in his favor, and the limited history he has against Sanchez personally has gone his way too.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+177

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

Alonso's compact seven-game stretch has him squaring up the ball the way I want to see before climbing on a total-bases number at plus money — 96 mile-an-hour average exit velocity in that span, four barrels among his last twenty-four balls in play. He's a right-handed bat, and Sanchez all year has been a fundamentally different pitcher depending on which side of the plate the hitter stands.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+157

MLB HR · Phillies @ Orioles

Coby Mayo

Home run props are a swing-for-the-fences bet by nature, and I size them accordingly, but Mayo's contact numbers the last two weeks are the best exit-velocity read of anyone on either roster tonight — north of 97 miles an hour on average, better than a fifth of his balls in play barreled up. He's right-handed, facing a pitcher who's been genuinely homer-prone to right-handed hitters all season, in a park that plays fair to pull-side pop. I'm not sizing this one heavy — one swing decides it either way — but the gap between how hard he's hitting the ball right now and the number on the board is wide enough to take a swing of my own.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Jeremy Pena

Pena is running a .431 average with six home runs over his last fifteen games, and the contact quality backs it up — this isn't a hot streak built on bloopers. He's a considerably better hitter at home than on the road, and this is a home game for him.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+129

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is the best hitter on this field, and this park at night is where he does the most damage — his home numbers and his night numbers are both a clear step up from his road and day splits, and both boxes get checked tonight. He handles right-handed pitching about as well as anyone in the game, and he's hitting .370 over his last fifteen games while sitting in the two-hole, which means more at-bats and more chances with a runner already on than a lower lineup spot would give him. Laying a little juice isn't my favorite thing, but he's cleared this number in close to two-thirds of his recent games against a price that only needs about half that. That gap is real.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-108

MLB HR · Rangers @ Astros

Joc Pederson

Pederson has gone deep five times over his last fifteen games, a real power stretch, and he's a left-handed bat who's actually been better away from home than at home this year and better at night than during the day — both true tonight. The bigger factor is who's on the mound.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Kohl Drake

Drake is in his third big-league start, pressed into Arizona's rotation because Gallen, Nelson, Soroka and Burnes are all hurt at the same time. The numbers back up that this assignment is still too big for him right now.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-117

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Parker Messick

Messick has been the workhorse Cleveland needed in a rookie season that's already earned him an All-Star nod. He's cleared six innings in four of his last six starts and gone at least six and two-thirds in three of them.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-127

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Abrams has crossed the plate in eleven of his last fifteen games, and he's hitting cleanup in front of a Washington lineup that's scalding right now — Wood, Garcia and Crews are all hitting well ahead of him. He's carrying a .382 average and well over 1.300 OPS himself over his last two weeks, and he's been a completely different hitter against right-handers all year, which is exactly what he sees tonight. Getting plus money on a guy scoring runs at this rate is a number I'll take.

OVER 0.5 Runs Scored+116

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

Ozzie Albies

Albies has driven in eleven runs over his last fifteen days hitting fifth behind Acuna, Olson and Harris, three bats that put guys on base even in quiet stretches. He's cleared this number in over half his last fifteen games. Mikolas is walking in with a 5.65 ERA and a whiff rate that's been collapsing his last few times out — his last outing produced a six percent swing-and-miss rate, which is a pitcher getting squared up. Albies has been one of the Braves doing the squaring.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+170

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

Nico Hoerner

Hoerner is running a .400 average over his last fifteen games and he's doing it the right way — an eleven percent swing-and-miss rate that says the contact is real, not lucky. He's the best bat-to-ball hitter in either lineup tonight.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+105

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

David Peterson

Peterson has let hitters do damage all year — a hard-hit rate over forty percent isn't a small-sample fluke, it's the story of his season, and both his ERA and his expected numbers agree he's a below-average arm right now. Tonight gets talked about as a pitcher's night because of the wind blowing in, but Peterson's issue isn't balls leaving the yard, it's the ball getting squared up on a line, and that doesn't care which way the wind blows. He's facing a lineup that hits right-handed nearly top to bottom, the side that's given him more trouble all season. Two earned runs isn't a lot to ask here.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-124

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez has four home runs and an .888 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the underlying contact backs it up — he's barreling the ball, not just getting lucky bounces. Feltner leans on his four-seamer and slider more than anything else he throws, and both are the two pitches getting hit hardest against him all season. Perez is a free swinger who hunts exactly those two pitches, he's a right-handed bat against a pitcher who's been considerably worse to righties, and he'll do it a mile above sea level with the wind blowing out. One extra-base hit is not a big ask for a hitter running this hot, in this ballpark, against this arm.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-108

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Mickey Moniak

Mickey Moniak is a completely different hitter once he's home at Coors — an OPS over 1.000 there compared to well under .700 on the road. He handles right-handed pitching well, he handles the fastball well, and Avila is going to show him a four-seamer or sinker on more than half his pitches tonight. Moniak's swung a hot bat this week too. I don't need him to run into one — I just need a bloop, a seeing-eye single, anything that gets him on base once, and that's the version of him that shows up most often at home.

OVER 0.5 Singles+105

MLB HR · Royals @ Rockies

Willi Castro

Willi Castro has gone deep four times in his last fifteen games and twice in the last week, and it's not just empty results — he's barreling balls at a real clip right now. He gets the look he wants from the left side against a rookie right-hander, at a ballpark that turns routine fly balls into homers everywhere in this sport, with the wind blowing out to left on top of it tonight. This is a swing-for-plus-money shot, not something I'd lay heavy chalk on — but the surge is real, and the number pays for the risk.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Ty France

Two weeks in and France still hasn't cooled off — over a dozen RBI and an OPS pushing past 1.100 in his last fifteen games, hitting cleanup in an order that keeps putting runners in front of him. He's right-handed, Mahle is right-handed, and that's been the matchup Mahle hasn't solved this year; his numbers against same-side hitters are considerably worse than against lefties. This isn't a bet on one big swing, it's a bet that a hitter doing everything right for two weeks finds a hit, a run, or an RBI somewhere in nine innings — which is close to what's already been happening.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-122

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado's carrying real thump into this one — four homers and ten knocks in his last fifteen games — and the pitch he's going to see most tonight happens to be the one that's hurt Mahle the most. Mahle leans on his four-seamer close to half the time and it's been the softest pitch in his bag this season, hit at a clip well over .300. Machado has done real damage against fastballs all year, and the same-handed matchup that's given Mahle trouble all season lines up here too.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-125

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Payton Tolle

Tolle's on a workload leash as a rookie, but nobody's put a leash on his swing-and-miss stuff. He's gone over 5.5 strikeouts in six of his last eight turns, and it hasn't depended on length — 7 strikeouts in just 3.2 innings against the Mets, 5 in 3 innings against Washington the start before that.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+116

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani's been the best hitter in this series — two homers and a .381 average over his last seven games — and tonight he draws a lefty he's never faced who has an actual problem with left-handed bats. Tolle's been more hittable by lefties than righties all season; the slugging gap against him from that side is real.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+109

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Abrams has gone deep eight times in his last fifteen days, hitting .382 with a 1.351 OPS in that stretch, and it isn't empty contact — three barrels in his last nineteen balls in play back it up. He's on the road tonight, which happens to be where his power plays best this year, 1.045 OPS and 17 home runs away from home against an .824 mark in Washington, and it's a night game, another split that favors him.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Matt Olson

Olson already has 29 home runs this year, and the most recent one came in his last plate appearance — a first-inning shot Friday night. He's a left-handed bat who still does real damage against right-handed pitching, .895 OPS and 18 home runs this season, and he lights up under the lights, a .919 OPS at night against .815 during the day.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+285

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado has a .461 expected wOBA and a .652 slug against four-seam fastballs this season, and Mahle leans on his four-seamer 46% of the time — his most-used pitch by a wide margin, and one that's already getting hit for a .328 expected wOBA league-wide before Machado ever steps in. Four homers and three barrels in his last twenty-five balls in play says the bat's in a good place right now, and he's got real history against this rotation — .317 with a .770 OPS lifetime off Logan Webb, three homers in limited looks at Robbie Ray. Petco is going to hold some balls up tonight, but a hitter's clear best pitch meeting a pitcher's most common one is specific enough to bet into the park rather than around it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Rhys Hoskins

Kohl Drake is three starts into a big league career and hitters are already squaring him up — two homers allowed in four innings his last time out, and the underlying contact he's giving up says that wasn't a fluke. He's a rookie left-hander still figuring out how to put hitters away, and Hoskins is exactly the kind of professional fastball hunter who makes pitchers like that pay. Cleveland's lineup has gone quiet as a group the last week, but Hoskins doesn't need the group to be rolling — he's found his stroke again the last couple weeks, and he only needs one pitch left over the plate. Drake's been leaving enough of those.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Rafael Devers

Devers is a different hitter by handedness — a .909 OPS and 18 homers against right-handers this year against a .555 OPS versus lefties, and Buehler throws right-handed. The specific way people have gotten to Buehler this year is his four-seamer, a pitch he still throws one time in five that's given up a .410 expected wOBA and a .361 average.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Gabriel Moreno

Nobody in this lineup is seeing the ball better than Moreno right now. He's not just hitting for average, he's squaring balls up and driving them to all fields, which tells me the power is going to keep showing up alongside it. Messick is a real problem for hitters who chase, but Moreno isn't chasing — he's sitting on pitches and letting the ball travel. At this price, all it takes is one mistake in the zone, and the way Moreno's swinging it right now, he's going to get his.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+830

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Michael Harris II

Harris hit a 421-foot three-run homer in his last game, and he's got four home runs total in his last fifteen days to go with a career track record of doing damage against right-handed pitching and under the lights — both of which describe tonight's matchup against Mikolas. The one thing keeping me from going bigger here is his recent exit-velocity reading, which is milder than the counting stats suggest, just one barrel in his last twenty-three balls in play. But this is an MVP-caliber season, a 20-homer year that already matches his career high, and he's staring at a starter who has given up a home run in five of his last six turns. I'll back the recent form and the matchup over the modest quality-of-contact wobble.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Jackson Merrill

Merrill's been the hottest power bat in this series — five homers and a .970 OPS over his last fifteen games. What I like more than the recent total is that his expected slug for the season, .444, sits well above his actual .388, which says the contact quality has been better than the results all year and it's just started catching up the last two weeks.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+460

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Andres Chaparro

Chaparro has been on a video-game stretch, five home runs in his last twenty-five at-bats, a 1.447 OPS over that span, and the deeper numbers back up that it isn't a fluke — his expected batting average and expected slugging are both comfortably ahead of what he's actually posted this season, which tells me the contact quality has been there even on the days the results weren't. He's been bumped into the two-hole in tonight's lineup, and in a small sample he's been drilling fastballs, a 1.000 slugging mark on 27 plate appearances, which lines up well against a Martín Pérez arsenal built around a sub-90 four-seamer and sinker. The swing-and-miss rate is a real caution, he's chasing and missing more than I'd like, but the power output the last two weeks and the gap between his actual and expected numbers are enough for me to take a shot at plus-700.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Ketel Marte

Marte's a switch-hitter who can hurt you from either side, and that matters against a pitcher like Messick who leans on hitters chasing his changeup off the plate — Marte's patient enough that he doesn't give that away. He's been squaring balls up better than his batting average shows the last couple weeks, which usually means the power numbers are about to catch up to the contact quality. He's one of the most dangerous hitters in this Arizona lineup, and I like him to turn one around tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+425

MLB HR · Nationals @ Braves

Drake Baldwin

Baldwin has been the hottest bat in the Atlanta lineup, a 1.108 OPS and five home runs over his last fifteen days, and it's backed by real contact quality, north of a 90 mile an hour average exit velocity with two barrels in his last twenty-two balls in play, not just an empty batting average. He's at home tonight, which is his better split by OPS this season, though the night start works slightly against him since his power has skewed toward day games this year. Facing a Mikolas who has let the ball fly out of the park all season, I'm comfortable leaning into the hot streak and the home context over the day/night wrinkle at plus-525.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Daniel Susac

Three homers in his last seven games and zero whiffs in his last twelve balls in play — when the swing-and-miss disappears at the same time the power shows up, that's usually real contact quality, not a hot round of luck. Two barrels in that same twelve-ball stretch backs it up.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+830

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Jake Bauers

Jake Bauers is locked in right now — hitting near .530 over his last week with the kind of hard, repeatable contact that tells you it isn't just luck, squaring balls up and rarely missing or chasing out of the zone. He handles left-handed pitching just fine, which matters tonight with Brent Suter starting in relief of a scratched José Soriano, the Angels piecing together a bullpen game on short notice. Facing a pitching staff in that kind of disarray, with the Brewers offense clicking as a whole, I like Bauers to keep finding a hit tonight.

OVER 0.5 Hits-135

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Vaughn Grissom

Vaughn Grissom has quietly been the one consistent bat for the Angels in the middle of a miserable stretch for this offense — ten RBI and an .870 OPS over his last fifteen games while most of the rest of this lineup has gone cold around him. He's been the exception keeping this offense from completely bottoming out, showing real pull-side pop and finding barrels even as the team as a whole isn't scoring. Robert Gasser has had more trouble with right-handed bats than lefties this year, and Grissom fits that profile exactly. The price on him driving in a run tonight looks well behind where his recent production actually has him.

OVER 0.5 RBI+231

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez's strikeout numbers get the attention, but the walks are the real story on his recent line. He's issued multiple walks in the majority of his last several outings — a three-walk night against Kansas City, two-walk starts mixed in against Texas and the Yankees. That's a sinker-heavy pitcher who lives around the edges of the zone, and his command has come and gone start to start rather than settling in. I'm betting that pattern continues tonight more than I'm betting on which lineup is standing in the box against him.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-114

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Jack Perkins

Jack Perkins takes a 6.45 ERA to the mound and his team has lost all six of his last six starts. That ERA isn't just bad luck sitting on top of solid work — he's let up three or more earned runs in six of his last eight outings, and the number I'm being asked to beat here is 2.5.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-141

Hub research

192

park_weatherNYY @ CHC
Wind blowing in 28 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Twenty-eight in from center turns well-hit fly balls into long outs at Wrigley tonight. A total of 6 already prices in that kind of wind, and I'm not fighting it.
P final total 7 vs 6 (under lean)
cut_listARI tonight
Kohl Drake
Starts tonight for ARI — 8.54 xERA behind a 5 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
starter_team_recordSTL @ TOR
Blue Jays 0-8 in Kevin Gausman's last 8 starts
Zero wins in Toronto's last eight Gausman starts is a strange number for a pitcher of his caliber — that's on the offense and the bullpen, not him. Worth seeing if tonight's the night the team finally backs him up.
starter_team_recordMIL @ LAA
Angels 0-8 in Brent Suter's last 8 starts
Zero wins in eight tries with Brent Suter on the mound, losers of his last eight straight. That's as much a comment on the Angels offense showing up every fifth day as it is on him.
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Coby Mayo is a different hitter against lefties — 1.076 there against .489 versus right-handers. Cristopher Sanchez throws left-handed tonight, and Mayo gets that look from the leadoff spot.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_team_recordDET @ OAK
Athletics 1-7 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
One win in Perkins's last eight starts, seven straight losses with him on the mound — that lineup isn't giving him much to work with.
starter_team_recordPHI @ BAL
Phillies 6-1 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 7 starts
Philly just wins when Sanchez takes the ball — 6-1 in his last seven starts, three in a row now.
bullpen_fatigueSF @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 19.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego's pen has thrown a lot of innings this week, but the fatigue isn't spread evenly — Márquez and Vásquez already gave length, and Peralta's the one arm who's gone out there twice. Fine if tonight's starter goes deep, thinner if he doesn't.
platoon_edgeNYY @ CHC
Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 2nd spot
Goldschmidt's a completely different hitter against lefties, 1.018 there against .584 versus right-handers. David Peterson throws left-handed and Goldschmidt hits second — that's the matchup he wants.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Kevin Gausman (RHP)
Alec Burleson hits right-handers at a .941 clip against barely replacement level versus lefties. Kevin Gausman's a right-hander and Burleson hits third — that's his side of the platoon lining up.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
streakingCHW @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 6 straight
6 straight unders for TB — their games are producing only 4 runs against numbers around 6.8. Tonight's number sits at 8.
P final total 1 vs 8
starter_formPIT @ CIN
Braxton Ashcraft: 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sixteen earned runs across his last three starts is brutal by any measure — a 10.29 ERA doesn't leave much room for excuses. Whatever Ashcraft was earlier this season, he isn't that pitcher right now.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: 1.351 OPS in Last 15 Days
CJ Abrams is running a 1.351 OPS over his last 15 days against a .929 season mark that was already excellent. Twenty-eight homers on the year and a total-bases line of 1.5 tonight looks like it's underpricing him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeWSH @ ATL
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Dylan Crews's vs. Left line (.983 OPS, 69 AB) sits well above his .561 mark the other way (150 AB). Tonight's starter Martin Perez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Drew Rasmussen (RHP)
Sam Antonacci hits right-handers at an .859 clip and struggles against lefties, .518 in limited work. Drew Rasmussen's a right-hander and Antonacci leads off — his side of the platoon.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeWSH @ ATL
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Brady House's vs. Left line (1.027 OPS, 52 AB) sits well above his .549 mark the other way (128 AB). Tonight's starter Martin Perez throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSTL @ TOR
Jordan Walker: .528 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Jordan Walker's .528 OPS over his last 15 days is a real slide from an .835 season mark, and Kevin Gausman is already his tougher matchup at .811 against right-handers. Nothing about tonight helps him snap out of it.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper against right-handers is a .985 hitter, well clear of his .617 against lefties. Shane Baz throws right-handed and Harper hits third — his preferred look.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Esmerlyn Valdez does his damage against lefties, 1.296 OPS there against .869 versus right-handers. Andrew Abbott throws left-handed tonight, setting Valdez up from the four-hole.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
starter_team_recordKC @ COL
Royals 6-2 in Luinder Avila's last 8 starts
Royals are 6-2 in Luinder Avila's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
heat_checkTEX @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.286 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jeremy Pena's 1.286 OPS over his last 15 days is well clear of his .879 season line, with 12 homers already banked. A 1.5 total-bases number tonight is worth a second look given that form.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
starter_team_recordMIN @ SEA
Mariners 6-2 in Logan Gilbert's last 8 starts
Seattle wins at a good clip behind Gilbert — 6-2 in his last eight starts.
heat_checkPHI @ BAL
Trea Turner: 1.109 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's at a 1.109 OPS over his last 15 days against a .698 season mark — a real hot streak, not noise. Sixteen homers on the year and a 1.5 total-bases number tonight looks light for where he's at.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
starter_team_recordPIT @ CIN
Pirates 6-2 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts
Six and two behind Ashcraft over his last eight starts sounds great until you remember his last three have been a mess — that record's leaning on starts from a while back.
starter_team_recordPHI @ BAL
Orioles 2-6 in Shane Baz's last 8 starts
Two wins in Baz's last eight starts is a rough number to carry into a series against a Phillies team that's been winning behind its own starter lately.
head_to_headDET @ OAK
Tigers are 4-0 vs Athletics this season
Detroit hasn't just beaten Oakland this year, they've dominated it — 4-0 with a 13-1 blowout the last time out.
platoon_edgeARI @ CLE
Corbin Carroll (bats L) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Corbin Carroll actually hits lefties better than right-handers this season, 1.027 to .727. Parker Messick gives him that look tonight from the leadoff spot.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Max Fried
Monday's White Sox start is already in the books. Tonight he's on the road at the Cubs to close the week, carrying a 2.51 xERA into it — the best number in this group. Full go both ways — build the week around him.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Jose Ramirez
Pickup vs Kohl Drake (8.53 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 2nd.
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Tristan Peters: .282 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Rasmussen
Tristan Peters is ice cold the last two weeks, a .282 OPS way down from his .745 season mark. But Drew Rasmussen is actually his better matchup at .791 against right-handers, so a cold stretch runs into a favorable look tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
platoon_edgeTEX @ HOU
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Evan Carter's .733 OPS against right-handers dwarfs his tiny sample against lefties. Ronel Blanco's a right-hander tonight — exactly the look Carter wants from the five-spot.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Mets
Francisco Lindor
Gary's Take He already went deep on this same Miami pitching staff last night, the 150th home run of his career as a Met, and that's three in his last seven games. The way he's getting there is the part I like — four balls barreled up in his last twenty in play, with a walk-up approach that isn't chasing to make it happen, under twenty percent whiff and right around twenty percent chase over that stretch.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB
streakingNYY @ CHC
NYY games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Yankees games have gone quiet — five straight unders, barely over seven runs a night against lines that were set closer to eleven. Tonight's total is already down to 6.5, so the market's caught up some.
P final total 7 vs 6.5
streakingDET @ OAK
OAK games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Oakland's put together five straight unders, just seven runs a night against a 9.3 average line — and tonight's total is still sitting up at 10.5.
P final total 14 vs 10.5
streakingKC @ COL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Even in Colorado, of all places, the unders have hit five straight — 12.2 runs a game against lines near 14.3. Tonight's number is still up at 11.5 despite that.
P final total 18 vs 11.5
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Yandy Diaz: .576 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jordan Hicks
Yandy Diaz has cooled to a .576 OPS over his last 15 days from an .842 season mark, and tonight he draws Jordan Hicks on the side of the plate where he's normally a shade less dangerous. Not much lining up in his favor right now.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
heat_checkSF @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.089 OPS in Last 15 Days
Luis Rengifo's 1.089 OPS over his last 15 days is a huge jump from a .629 season line. Half a total base tonight is a low bar for someone hitting like this right now.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 7/27
Zack Wheeler
The Marlins start Monday already happened. One left, Sunday at the Orioles, with a 2.65 xERA on the season behind him. Start him Sunday and don't blink.
rest_fatigueCHW @ TB
TB's bullpen has covered 16.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Ian Seymour (4.7) and Bryan Baker (2). CHW's pen has thrown 15 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-1
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
CJ Abrams
Gary's Take Abrams has gone deep eight times in his last fifteen days, hitting .382 with a 1.351 OPS in that stretch, and it isn't empty contact — three barrels in his last nineteen balls in play back it up. He's on the road tonight, which happens to be where his power plays best this year, 1.045 OPS and 17 home runs away from home against an .824 mark in Washington, and it's a night game, another split that favors him.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offWSH @ ATL
James Wood: .681 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Martin Perez
James Wood's .681 OPS over the last 15 days (58 PA) trails his .943 season mark, down 0.262. Tonight he draws LHP Martin Perez — his weaker side: a .845 OPS vs LHP across 154 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsBrewers @ Angels
Andrew Vaughn
Gary's Take Brent Suter wasn't supposed to pitch tonight. He got the ball on short rest after the Angels scratched their scheduled starter, and he's taking the mound two days removed from his last relief outing.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formNYY @ CHC
David Peterson: 1.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
Peterson's been excellent his last three starts, a 1.56 ERA that's a long way from the 5.80 season number most lines are probably still built around.
P 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
gary_hr_threatsWhite Sox @ Rays
Junior Caminero
Gary's Take Caminero hit one 453 feet off Chicago's pitching last night, and tonight he gets a sinker to work with — Jordan Hicks throws it more than half the time, and Caminero has turned that pitch into one of the best matchups of his season, slugging well over .650 against it. Hicks is taking the ball in a new role tonight, his first look as an opener after doing all his work in relief this year, and Caminero bats third, which means he sees him early and fresh, before there's any book on how Hicks handles this job.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkSF @ SD
Jackson Merrill: .970 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's climbed to a .970 OPS over his last 15 days, way up from a .673 season mark. Fifteen homers and a 1.5 total-bases line tonight look priced for last month's version of him, not this one.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
head_to_headWSH @ ATL
Braves are 6-3 vs Nationals this season
Atlanta's already won this season series 6-3 and took the last meeting by four. Combined with the form they're carrying right now, the head-to-head history isn't doing Washington any favors.
heat_checkTEX @ HOU
Joc Pederson: 1.310 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pederson's at a 1.310 OPS over his last 15 days on top of an .860 season mark that was already strong, with 20 homers banked. Half a total base tonight looks light for this kind of stretch.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
platoon_edgeMIN @ SEA
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Logan Gilbert (RHP)
Over 250 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .842 OPS versus .602 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Logan Gilbert tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
head_to_headMIA @ NYM
Marlins are 8-5 vs Mets this season
Miami's owned this matchup all year, 8-5 in the season series with a 5-2 win the last time these two played.
head_to_headTEX @ HOU
Astros are 7-4 vs Rangers this season
Houston's taken this season series 7-4 and hung eleven runs on Texas in the last meeting.
regression_tomorrowSTL @ TOR
Max Scherzer: 9.49 ERA vs 6.16 xERA
Scherzer's own expected ERA, 6.16, isn't good to begin with, and he's still pitching worse than that at 9.49. A 37% hard-hit rate and hitters batting .307 against him say this isn't a case of bad luck hiding a better pitcher underneath.
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Mets
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Four home runs in his last six games, and the contact backs it up — five barrels in his last eighteen balls in play, exit velocity sitting near the top of the whole board tonight. What actually changed is the launch angle: he's been putting the ball in the air more this past week than he was over the month before it, and that's the difference between hard contact that dies on the track and hard contact that clears the fence.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPHI @ BAL
Brandon Marsh: .360 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Baz
Brandon Marsh's .360 OPS over his last 15 days is way down from .768, but Shane Baz is actually a good matchup for him at .815 against right-handers for his career. A cold hitter catching a break in the matchup.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Payton Tolle
Monday's Athletics start is done. He's right back on the road tonight at the Dodgers to close the week, 2.91 xERA on the year. Two road starts, one clear call: use him.
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: 1.108 OPS in Last 15 Days
Drake Baldwin is running a 1.108 OPS over his last 15 days against an .839 season line, with 20 homers already on the year. A 1.5 total-bases number tonight undersells where he's at.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ TB
Chicago White Sox pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago's leaned on Richards, Murphy, and Hudson twice each in three days, even though none of those outings were long. If this turns into a bullpen game, Taylor and Newcomb are the only arms back there who haven't already been used twice.
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Andrew Benintendi (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Andrew Benintendi's vs. Right line (.776 OPS, 263 AB) sits well above his .459 mark the other way (36 AB). Tonight's starter Drew Rasmussen throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
cooling_offMIA @ NYM
Xavier Edwards: .511 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton
Xavier Edwards has cooled to a .511 OPS over his last 15 days from a .772 season mark, and Zac Thornton is actually his tougher matchup at .756 against lefties. Not much lines up for him tonight.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Jake Bennett
Tuesday's Athletics start already happened. Sunday he's back at the Dodgers to wrap the week, 3.07 xERA on the season. Start Sunday — take the second half of the week.
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ TB
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa spread the work around this week — ten different arms used — so nobody's really gassed except Baker and Cleavinger, who've each gone twice. Outside of Seymour's one long outing, this is a rested pen.
rest_fatigueTEX @ HOU
15.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for HOU
Relievers have absorbed 15.7 innings over the last 3 games (Cristian Javier (5) and AJ Blubaugh (2.3) the heaviest). TEX's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-5
heat_checkARI @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .982 OPS in Last 15 Days
Kwan's at a .982 OPS over his last 15 days against a .665 season line — a real spike. A 1.5 total-bases number tonight looks conservative for the version of him showing up lately.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Heriberto Hernandez (bats R) hits 2nd against Zac Thornton (LHP)
Over 92 AB vs. Left, Heriberto Hernandez owns a .945 OPS versus .691 in 167 AB the other way. He sees LHP Zac Thornton tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offKC @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .561 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Luinder Avila
Jake McCarthy's down to a .561 OPS over his last 15 days from an .815 season mark, and Luinder Avila is his weaker side too at .783 against right-handers. A cold stretch meeting an unfavorable matchup.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
park_weatherCHW @ TB
Wind blowing out 14 mph at Tropicana Field tonight
Conditions at Tropicana Field: Partly Cloudy, 84°, wind 14 mph, Out To RF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 1 vs 7.5 (over lean)
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds: .549 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
Bryan Reynolds is down to a .549 OPS over his last 15 days from an .834 season mark, but Andrew Abbott is actually his good matchup at .861 against lefties for his career. A slump running into a favorable look.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkMIA @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: 1.046 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (49 PA) he is at a 1.046 OPS, up 0.297 on his .749 season mark. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
park_weatherMIN @ SEA
Wind blowing out 14 mph at T-Mobile Park tonight
Conditions at T-Mobile Park: Partly Cloudy, 70°, wind 14 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.25.
P final total 7 vs 7.25 (over lean)
cooling_offARI @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .496 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kohl Drake
Brayan Rocchio's dropped to a .496 OPS over his last 15 days from .713, and Kohl Drake is his weaker side too at .657 against lefties. Two things working against him tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
two_start_weekCincinnati Reds — week of 7/27
Chase Burns
Tuesday's start against the Guardians already happened. Sunday he's back home against the Pirates to finish the week, 3.19 xERA on the season. Home date Sunday — this is a lineup-builder week.
two_start_weekLos Angeles Angels — week of 7/27
Walbert Ureña
Monday's home date against the Astros is in the books. He stays home Sunday against the Brewers to close the week, sitting on a 3.26 xERA for the year. Two home starts is a gift — take it.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Gerrit Cole
Tuesday's White Sox start is banked. Sunday closes the week at the Cubs, 3.29 xERA on the season — the highest number in this tier, but he's still in it. Bottom of the tier is still start him Sunday.
streakingWSH @ ATL
ATL have won 4 straight
Atlanta's won four straight with a plus-7 run differential to show for it — 6-2 over their last eight.
P team won 3-8
bullpen_fatiguePHI @ BAL
Baltimore Orioles pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Baltimore's pen is the most worn down in this whole group — four arms already worked in back-to-back games, and Suárez needed 40 pitches just to finish an inning and a third. If tonight stays tight late, the options back there are thinner than the innings total suggests.
heat_checkNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .905 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (57 PA) he is at a .905 OPS, up 0.239 on his .666 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
streakingMIL @ LAA
LAA have lost 4 straight
Los Angeles Angels have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 7 runs over the skid; 3-6 across their last 9.
P team lost 3-1
rest_fatigueSF @ SD
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Randy Vasquez (4.7) and Griffin Canning (3) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 5-6
cooling_offSTL @ TOR
Ivan Herrera: .542 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kevin Gausman
Ivan Herrera's .542 OPS over the last 15 days (60 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.198. Tonight he draws RHP Kevin Gausman — his weaker side: a .706 OPS vs RHP across 289 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
streakingMIA @ NYM
NYM games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Mets games have gone under four straight, under five runs a night — and tonight's total is still parked way up at 9. That's a big enough gap between the recent trend and the number to notice.
P final total 8 vs 9
streakingTEX @ HOU
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers games have gone over four straight, over nine runs a game against lines that were closer to 7.5. Tonight's total moved up to 8.5 but is still below the pace they've actually been playing at.
P final total 9 vs 8.5
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Lars Nootbaar's vs. Right line (.749 OPS, 119 AB) sits well above his .483 mark the other way (30 AB). Tonight's starter Kevin Gausman throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 7/27
Keider Montero
Monday's home start against the Orioles already happened. Sunday he's on the road at the Athletics to finish the week, 3.48 xERA on the season — the softest number here. Streamer only — matchup fill, not a must-own.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Austin Hedges
Pickup vs Kohl Drake (8.53 xERA) — .742 OPS, bats 8th.
regression_watchDET @ OAK
Jack Perkins: 6.45 ERA vs 4.05 xERA
Perkins's ERA is 6.45, but a 10.5 strikeout rate and reasonable contact numbers say his expected mark, 4.05, is closer to the truth. Walks and bad timing look like the bigger issue here than his actual stuff.
P 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ HOU
Wyatt Langford
Pickup vs Ronel Blanco (6.78 xERA) — .822 OPS, bats 2nd.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Travis Bazzana
Pickup vs Kohl Drake (8.53 xERA) — .729 OPS, bats 7th.
cut_listHOU tonight
Ronel Blanco
Starts tonight for HOU — 6.78 xERA behind a 8.1 ERA.
starter_formPHI @ BAL
Cristopher Sanchez: 5.84 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sanchez's last three starts haven't matched his season number — 5.84 ERA against a 2.73 mark, even with Philly still winning behind him. Team record and personal form are pulling in different directions right now.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
park_weatherMIA @ NYM
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 82°, wind 13 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 9.
P final total 8 vs 9 (over lean)
heat_checkCHW @ TB
Nick Fortes: 1.123 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.123 OPS versus .699 for the season, 0.424 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez: .556 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton
Otto Lopez's .556 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .838 season mark, down 0.282. Tonight he draws LHP Zac Thornton — his stronger side: a .954 OPS vs LHP across 103 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
bullpen_fatigueMIL @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Angels' pen threw the fewest total innings of any group here, but that's deceiving — four of their top arms have already pitched twice this week. Natera and Murphy are the only two who haven't been touched twice, so they're the real fresh options tonight.
starter_formSF @ SD
Tyler Mahle: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Forget the 4.96 season number — Mahle's thrown to a 2.00 ERA over his last three starts, a completely different pitcher than his full-year line suggests.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Zac Thornton: 2.43 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
A 2.43 ERA sounds great until you see Thornton's 4.55 expected mark sitting more than two runs higher — a 44% hard-hit rate doesn't usually pair with a .196 average against for long. The cushion here looks thinner than the ERA lets on.
P 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
rest_fatiguePIT @ CIN
PIT's pen has logged 13.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.7 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Hunter Barco (3) carried the load. CIN's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-1
regression_tomorrowARI @ CLE
Merrill Kelly: 4.86 ERA vs 7.18 xERA
A 4.86 ERA isn't good, but it's actually flattering Kelly — his expected mark is 7.18, and a 45% hard-hit rate backs up why hitters have squared him up all year.
regression_watchWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.72 xERA
Lopez's 5.79 ERA is running well past his own expected mark of 3.72 — a fifty-five-point gap between his actual and expected average against points more toward bad luck on balls in play than bad stuff. He's got a Braves team on a four-game win streak behind him tonight, which is a good spot for the numbers to start evening out.
heat_checkSTL @ TOR
George Springer: .951 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 49 PA: a .951 OPS versus .721 for the season, 0.23 above his norm. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez (bats R) draws Zac Thornton (LHP), batting 1st
Otto Lopez carries a .954 OPS vs. Left (103 AB) against .801 the other way (325 AB), and faces LHP Zac Thornton from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Dodgers' bullpen story this week is really just Cole Irvin — six innings on 102 pitches in a single outing, basically a spot start. Outside of that, Scott and Díaz carry the only real mileage, while Dreyer's about as fresh as anyone can be.
rest_fatiguePHI @ BAL
BAL's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Wells (3) and Josh Walker (2.3). PHI's pen has thrown only 6 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-0
ownedTEX @ HOU
Jacob deGrom vs Christian Walker: 1-for-18, 9 K
Jacob deGrom has owned Christian Walker across their careers, 1-for-18 with 9 strikeouts. That history is squarely in deGrom's favor before a pitch is thrown tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueDET @ OAK
Detroit Tigers pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Ty Madden has been Detroit's real workhorse in this pen, throwing 83 pitches across two separate outings for 5 total innings — that's two different multi-inning stints, not one bulk outing, so he's absorbed a lot of the recent load without it all coming in one appearance. Drew Sommers is the one true back-to-back concern: he pitched in each of the last two days, totaling 3 innings on 35 pitches across those two outings, which usually means he's the least likely to be available again tonight or good for only a short look. The rest of the group has been used carefully — De Jesus, Waguespack, Anderson, and Jansen have all appeared just once in the three games, with Anderson the only one who needed a lot of pitches for his innings, 30 for 1.3, suggesting some traffic in that outing. With Madden already carrying real length and Sommers on the two-days-in-a-row workload, Detroit's freshest options tonight against Oakland are the one-outing arms, plus Jansen if it turns into a save situation.
rest_fatigueSTL @ TOR
12.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for TOR
Relievers have absorbed 12.7 innings over the last 3 games (CJ Van Eyk (3.3) and Louis Varland (3) the heaviest). STL's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-5
cooling_offMIN @ SEA
Colt Emerson: .356 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Connor Prielipp
Colt Emerson's .356 OPS over the last 15 days (44 PA) trails his .598 season mark, down 0.242. Tonight he draws LHP Connor Prielipp — his stronger side: a .654 OPS vs LHP across 54 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
running_gamePIT @ CIN
Cincinnati Reds like to run — Henry Davis (48% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cincinnati runs regardless of who's behind the plate, and Henry Davis has caught just 48% of basestealers. That's an aggressive running team testing a catcher who hasn't stopped many of them.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowSTL @ TOR
Michael McGreevy: 3.57 ERA vs 5.67 xERA
McGreevy's 3.57 ERA looks like a strong season, but his 5.67 expected mark says hitters have been squaring him up more than the results let on. That's usually not a gap that holds for a full season.
heat_checkARI @ CLE
Ryan Waldschmidt: 1.019 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.019 OPS versus .730 for the season, 0.289 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Miguel Vargas: .689 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Rasmussen
Miguel Vargas's .689 OPS over the last 15 days (57 PA) trails his .826 season mark, down 0.137. Tonight he draws RHP Drew Rasmussen — his weaker side: a .782 OPS vs RHP across 278 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkMIN @ SEA
Cole Young: .901 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .901 OPS spans the last 15 days (55 PA) against a .733 season baseline, a 0.168 swing. He has 14 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
regression_watchKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .227 xBA
There's a real gap between what Moniak's hitting and what he's actually earned on contact quality. I'm not chasing this average until that gap closes.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftPIT @ CIN
At Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott pitches to a 5.05 ERA
Abbott's actually worse at home than away, which isn't the usual pattern — a 5.05 ERA at Great American against a tidy 2.89 on the road. That's exactly the version of him on the mound again tonight.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
closer_watchMIL @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
closer_watchNYY @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
closer_watchKC @ COL
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
running_gameMIA @ NYM
Miami Marlins like to run — Luis Torrens (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Torrens actually has one of the better arms behind the plate this year, throwing out 41 percent of runners, and Miami keeps running anyway. I like his half of that matchup — somebody in a Marlins uniform gets hosed tonight.
P Miami Marlins stole 2 bases
park_weatherPHI @ BAL
Wind blowing out 11 mph at Oriole Park at Camden Yards tonight
Wind's pushing out to left at Camden tonight, exactly the kind of night a routine fly ball sneaks over the fence. Total's sitting at 8 — I'd lean toward the hitters getting the better of this one.
P final total 5 vs 8 (over lean)
return_watchBAL — return listed 8/1
Ryan Mountcastle
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, foot) — 0.690 OPS this season.
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/1
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/1 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/1
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/1 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez: .271 AVG vs .223 xBA
Nearly fifty points separate what Esmerlyn Valdez is hitting from what his contact quality supports. Nice stretch for him, but I wouldn't bet on it lasting.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
rest_fatigueDET @ OAK
DET's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Jacob Waguespack (3.7) and Drew Anderson (3) carried the load. OAK's pen has thrown 11.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 8-6
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Jake Mangum: .304 AVG vs .259 xBA
Mangum's been a tougher out than his contact deserves all year, a forty-five-point gap between what he's hitting and what he's earned. I'll trust the .259 before I trust the .304.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
regression_watchNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .255 AVG vs .299 xBA
Here's one going the other way: the contact says Hoerner should be near .300, not .255 — he's getting robbed instead of gifted. Tonight's as good a spot as any for that to start turning.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
cooling_offMIN @ SEA
Victor Caratini: .429 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Gilbert
Victor Caratini's .429 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .669 season mark, down 0.24. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Gilbert — his stronger side: a .689 OPS vs RHP across 174 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchKC @ COL
Cole Carrigg: .296 AVG vs .253 xBA
More than forty points separate Carrigg's average from what his contact quality supports. Fun to watch right now, but I wouldn't trust it holding at this level.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
regression_tomorrowKC @ COL
Kyle Freeland: 7.34 ERA vs 5.63 xERA
Freeland's results and process actually agree for once, and neither one is good — a 7.34 ERA with a 5.63 expected mark right behind it, both backed by heavy contact allowed. There's no better pitcher hiding underneath this line.
park_weatherPIT @ CIN
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Great American Ball Park tonight
Wind's blowing straight in at Great American tonight, and that park already leans toward pitchers when the air's dead. Total's at 8 and I think the under crowd has the better of it.
P final total 5 vs 8 (under lean)
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.592 OPS, 0.210 AVG from the 2-hole.
starter_formDET @ OAK
Framber Valdez: 6.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Valdez has stepped back over his last three starts, a 6.39 ERA against a 4.53 season mark. That's a real dip from where his year-long number says he should be.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
regression_watchTEX @ HOU
Corey Seager: .189 AVG vs .229 xBA
Corey Seager is hitting .189 against a .229 expected average (xBA) over 222 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .299 against a .339 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsCHW @ TB
Drew Rasmussen
Streamer vs CHW — 3.12 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP.
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/2
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
cut_listCOL tonight
Ryan Feltner
Starts tonight for COL — 5.86 xERA behind a 5.73 ERA.
ownedTEX @ HOU
Jeremy Pena vs Jacob deGrom: .400
Pena's already got deGrom's number, 4 for 10 with real pop in that history, and he's swinging a hot bat right now on top of it. Short history against one arm, but everything here points the same direction for him tonight.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
ownedNYY @ CHC
Max Fried vs Seiya Suzuki: 1-for-11, 5 K
Fried has flat-out owned Suzuki for years, 1 for 11 with five strikeouts across their history. Doesn't guarantee tonight, but that's about as clean a track record as a pitcher gets over a hitter.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCHW @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .815 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (46 PA) he is at a .815 OPS, up 0.141 on his .674 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
starter_formWSH @ ATL
Reynaldo Lopez: 5.40 ERA over his last 3 starts
Lopez's last three starts have looked rough on paper, 5.40 ERA, but that's the same stretch where his expected ERA is sitting almost two runs lower. The results and the process aren't telling the same story with him right now.
starter_formMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser: 6.43 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 14 innings, 10 earned runs, 16 hits. That 6.43 ERA runs 1.72 over his 4.71 season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Marcus Semien: .210 AVG vs .247 xBA
Across 358 plate appearances, Marcus Semien carries a .210 average versus a .247 xBA. His wOBA sits at .272 against a .308 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cut_listOAK tonight
Tommy White
Still hitting 4th for OAK — 0.604 OPS, 0.269 AVG from the 4-hole.
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
Tyler Phillips: 3.52 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Phillips is beating his expected ERA by about a run, but it's a mild case — nothing in the contact numbers looks extreme enough to call it borrowed time.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ CIN
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh's recent relief innings are concentrated in a handful of longer outings — Antwone Kelly, Hunter Barco, and Carmen Mlodzinski each turned in three-inning stints in their one appearance, with Barco needing 72 pitches to do it, a heavy total for a single relief outing. Noah Murdock also went long in his one appearance, using 45 pitches to cover 2 innings, so between him, Kelly, Barco, and Mlodzinski, that's four different arms already stretched past a normal relief look in just the last three games. Mason Montgomery is the only reliever who's pitched in each of the last two days, though his workload has been light each time, 1.7 total innings on 19 pitches across those two outings, so he's more of a scheduling concern than a stress one. Gregory Soto's one outing was short but not clean, needing 18 pitches to get less than a full inning, which points to him battling traffic, and with so many arms already used for length, Pittsburgh's bullpen depth looks thinner than usual heading into tonight against Cincinnati.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Parker Messick
Streamer vs ARI — 3.14 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 1.04 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Streamer vs BOS — 3.19 xERA · 8.5 K/9 · 0.9 WHIP.
heat_checkCHW @ TB
Chase Meidroth: .885 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .885 OPS spans the last 15 days (44 PA) against a .739 season baseline, a 0.146 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
first_inningMIA @ NYM
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ NYM
Both these lineups have been slow out of the gate — the Mets scoring a first-inning run in just 2 of their last 10, Miami in 3 of 10. Thornton and Phillips have both actually been hittable early this season, so it's not a clean case either way.
P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)
ballpark_shiftSTL @ TOR
Kevin Gausman's ERA drops to 3.86 at Rogers Centre
Gausman's a lot better at home than away — 3.86 ERA at Rogers Centre against 5.33 on the road, and that's exactly where he's pitching tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
closer_watchTEX @ HOU
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
closer_watchPHI @ BAL
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
closer_watchCHW @ TB
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 30 saves this season (next closest: Kevin Kelly with 4).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 23 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
regression_tomorrowSF @ SD
Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
King's beating his expected ERA by over a run too, and the contact numbers actually support it — a 33% hard-hit rate is a genuinely stingy number. This doesn't look like a gap that's about to close on him.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ LAD
Emmet Sheehan: 4.95 ERA vs 3.77 xERA
Sheehan's a run and change worse than his expected ERA, but it's a modest gap with unremarkable contact numbers underneath — more ordinary variance than a red flag.
heat_checkSTL @ TOR
Alejandro Kirk: .812 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a .812 OPS versus .648 for the season, 0.164 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
regression_tomorrowWSH @ ATL
Martín Pérez: 3.49 ERA vs 4.68 xERA
Pérez is beating his expected ERA by over a run, but a 6.4% barrel rate is a genuinely elite number — hitters just aren't squaring him up enough for the whole gap to be luck. Some of this overperformance looks earned.
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.632 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 4-hole.
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
cut_listPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.647 OPS, 0.223 AVG from the 4-hole.
cut_listSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Still hitting 5th for SEA — 0.579 OPS, 0.164 AVG from the 5-hole.
regression_tomorrowKC @ COL
Seth Lugo: 4.22 ERA vs 5.38 xERA
Lugo's beating his expected ERA by over a run, but his actual and expected average against are nearly identical, .274 to .277. Whatever's driving that gap, it isn't weak contact turning into easy outs.
ballpark_shiftSF @ SD
At Petco Park, Walker Buehler pitches to a 4.58 ERA
Buehler's actually better at Petco than anywhere else, 4.58 against 5.74 on the road — a pitcher-friendly park doing real work for him tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
running_gameWSH @ ATL
Green light: Washington Nationals run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Baldwin's thrown out six of thirty-nine runners this year, about as exploitable as a catcher gets, and Washington already runs at a solid clip. I'd be surprised if they don't send somebody early and often tonight.
P Washington Nationals stole 0 bases
running_gameSF @ SD
San Diego Padres like to run — Daniel Susac (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
A third of the runners who've tested Susac this year have been thrown out, a real arm, and San Diego keeps running anyway. That's the best reason to think a Padres runner gets erased tonight.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
park_weatherKC @ COL
92° at Coors Field — the ball will carry tonight
Ninety-two degrees and thin air at Coors is about as good as it gets for hitters — the ball just travels different up there in that heat. Total's already at 11.5 and I don't think that's rich enough.
P final total 18 vs 12 (over lean)
cut_listMIA tonight
Leo Jimenez
Still hitting 5th for MIA — 0.606 OPS, 0.210 AVG from the 5-hole.
ballpark_shiftBOS @ LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto owns a 3.27 ERA at Dodger Stadium — 2.17 everywhere else
Yamamoto's been sharper on the road than at Dodger Stadium this year, 2.17 ERA away against 3.27 at home. Unusual split for a guy pitching in front of his own crowd tonight.
P 8 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
A .333 record in one-run games, 10-20, is the kind of number that doesn't tend to stick — that's a lot of close losses for the Mets to keep piling up.
regression_tomorrowCHW @ TB
Griffin Jax: 3.74 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Jax's gap is one of the tamer ones here, under a full run between his actual and expected ERA. The 15-point difference between his .244 actual average and .259 expected mark is within normal batted-ball variance rather than a warning sign. His hard-hit rate of 39.7% and barrel rate of 9.8% are both middle-of-the-pack for this group — not clean, not alarming. A gap this size usually just means a few balls have landed in gloves that could've found grass, and there's no strong signal here pointing to a correction against the White Sox.
cut_listTB tonight
Chandler Simpson
Still hitting 2th for TB — 0.674 OPS, 0.290 AVG from the 2-hole.
cut_listNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Still hitting 3th for NYM — 0.667 OPS, 0.256 AVG from the 3-hole.
running_gameMIN @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 14%
Eight of fifty-nine runners caught — one of the softest arms on the board tonight — and Seattle's already got 81 stolen bases this season. This is about as green a light as you'll find tonight.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
regression_watchMIN @ SEA
Brooks Lee: .244 AVG vs .223 xBA
Across 425 plate appearances, Brooks Lee carries a .244 average versus a .223 xBA. His wOBA sits at .316 against a .271 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
regression_watchPHI @ BAL
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
Nineteen and ten in one-run games is a .655 clip that's hard to sustain over a full season. Philadelphia's record right now is probably a little better than the team underneath it.
regression_tomorrowCHW @ TB
Anthony Kay: 4.25 ERA vs 5.13 xERA
Kay's gap is the smallest on this entire list, and every supporting number backs that up. The 10-point difference between his .253 actual average allowed and .263 expected mark is about as close to neutral as batted-ball luck gets. His hard-hit rate of 39.5% and barrel rate of 8.8% are unremarkable in either direction — no red flag, no standout skill. When the process and the results are this close together, there isn't much of a luck story here; against Tampa Bay, this is close to what you see is what you get.
running_gameKC @ COL
Colorado Rockies like to run — Salvador Perez (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Colorado Rockies attempt 0.9 steals a game, but Salvador Perez has cut down 11 of 32 runners (34%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Colorado Rockies stole 0 bases
cut_listSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.640 OPS, 0.243 AVG from the 6-hole.
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
running_gameMIN @ SEA
Green light: Minnesota Twins run, and Mitch Garver has caught just 14%
Minnesota Twins steal 0.6 bags a game (67 on the season) and Mitch Garver has thrown out 5 of 36 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ LAA
Robert Gasser
Streamer vs LAA — 3.75 xERA · 8.2 K/9 · 1.17 WHIP.
cut_listTOR tonight
Alejandro Kirk
Still hitting 5th for TOR — 0.648 OPS, 0.231 AVG from the 5-hole.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Jared Young
Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.71 xERA) — .753 OPS, bats 5th.
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Francisco Lindor
Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.71 xERA) — .749 OPS, bats 2nd.
first_inningMIN @ SEA
SEA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Seattle's hitters have scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games — quiet, even against a Minnesota starter who's had a rough first inning all year himself. Their own arm, Gilbert, hasn't been much sharper early, so this could stay a slow-starting game on both sides.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
first_inningKC @ COL
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Kansas City's bats have scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games — a surprising drought given both starters tonight, Feltner and Avila, have been hittable early all year. Something's got to give early in this one.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningNYY @ CHC
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Yankees hitters have scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games. That's notable against Peterson specifically, who's been rough in first innings all year — a 10.13 ERA and .389 average against — while Fried's own first-inning number, 4.50, is milder but still nothing special.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningPIT @ CIN
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Pittsburgh's bats have gone quiet early, scoring in the first just once in ten games — even against a Reds starter who's been rough there himself, a 6.95 ERA and .267 average against in first innings. Ashcraft, on the other hand, has actually been sharp in the first all year, even while the rest of his recent starts have been a mess.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
fantasy_pickupsMIA @ NYM
Carson Benge
Pickup vs Tyler Phillips (4.71 xERA) — .725 OPS, bats 4th.

Graded results

Games

W
Pittsburgh Pirates ML -126
MLB · 4-1
L
Cardinals ML +141
MLB · 1-5
L
Athletics +1.5 +104
MLB · 8-6
W
Tampa Bay Rays ML -175
MLB · 0-1
W
Marlins ML +113
MLB · 6-2
L
Minnesota Twins ML +143
MLB · 3-4
W
Braves ML -171
MLB · 3-8
W
Cubs ML -125
MLB · 2-5
L
Orioles ML +127
MLB · 5-0
L
Royals ML +109
MLB · 6-12
W
Astros ML +104
MLB · 4-5
W
Diamondbacks ML +149
MLB · 12-8
W
Red Sox ML +149
MLB · 3-2
W
Padres ML -144
MLB · 5-6
L
Angels +1.5 -126
MLB · 3-1

Props

L
Andres Chaparro · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Chase Meidroth · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Coby Mayo · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Daniel Susac · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
L
David Peterson · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Drake Baldwin · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Framber Valdez · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 2
W
Francisco Lindor · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 2
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Gabriel Moreno · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
George Springer · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Heriberto Hernandez · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Jack Perkins · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 6
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 1
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 5
L
Joc Pederson · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Jordan Walker · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Junior Caminero · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Ketel Marte · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Kevin Gausman · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Kody Clemens · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Kohl Drake · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 2
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Logan Gilbert · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 6
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Matt Olson · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Michael Harris II · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mickey Moniak · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 1
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 1
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Nico Hoerner · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 4
L
Ozzie Albies · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Parker Messick · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 13
W
Payton Tolle · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 7
L
Pete Alonso · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Rhys Hoskins · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Ryan Jeffers · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Ryan Jeffers · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 1
L
Ryan Vilade · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Salvador Perez · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 4
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 1
W
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 4
L
Vaughn Grissom · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Willi Castro · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 1
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 2