Pirates at Reds
O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates ML-126
CONF 62%
WCashedFinal 4-1
The read
Saturday night by the river, first pitch just before seven, and Cincinnati has been squeezing the life out of this series — two wins, both by a single run, both decided in the final couple innings on a ground ball that got somebody out at the wrong base. Pittsburgh has dropped four in a row and hasn't looked anything like the club that was adding pieces at the deadline. And yet the price on them went the wrong direction: this morning you could have gotten the Pirates cheaper, and by afternoon the board had made them more expensive. When the market moves toward a team that just lost four straight, that isn't people getting emotional. That's somebody doing the math.
Here's the math. Braxton Ashcraft brings serious heat and a curveball hitters miss on more than a third of the time they swing at it, and he's actually kept runs off the board better than his earned run number looks — hitters just aren't squaring him up, so the results should have been friendlier. Andrew Abbott is the other kind of pitcher. His run number is real; how he got there isn't. In this ballpark he gives up a lot more damage than he does on the road, he leans on a straight fastball nearly half the time and hitters have hammered it, and the last time he faced this Pittsburgh lineup they took him deep three times before he got out of the sixth. The Pirates are running seven right-handed hitters out there tonight, and right-handed hitters are exactly who Abbott gives home runs to. Brandon Lowe has been scorching over his last handful of games. Nick Gonzales has been raking for two weeks. That's the side I want holding the bats.
Then there's what each dugout has left once the starters are done. Cincinnati emptied five relievers Friday and used Pagán both nights — this is game seven of an eleven-game homestand, six games in seven days, and those arms are running on fumes. Pittsburgh went out this morning and traded for a closer, which is what a team does when it knows exactly where it's been losing games. And I keep coming back to the bottom of the Reds' lineup: Suárez, Trevino, Friedl, and McLain just back from injury — that group has been giving away outs for a week, and tonight they get high heat and a nasty breaking ball. Losing two one-run games isn't the same as getting beat up twice. Pittsburgh scores more runs and has the better arm going tonight, and I'm fine paying a little more than I would have at five in the morning.
The full analysis
Saturday night on the river, first pitch 6:40, and Cincinnati has this series by the throat — two wins, both by exactly one run, both decided in the last two innings on a fielder's choice. Pittsburgh has lost four straight and hasn't looked like the team that was buying at the deadline. And yet the number went the wrong way on them: this morning you could have had the Pirates at -112, and by afternoon the board pushed to -126. When a market moves toward a club that just dropped four in a row, that's not sentiment. That's somebody doing arithmetic.
Here's the arithmetic. Braxton Ashcraft throws 97 with a curveball hitters swing through better than a third of the time they offer at it, and his run prevention has actually been sturdier than the ERA line suggests — the contact he gives up is soft enough that the results should have been kinder. Andrew Abbott is the opposite animal. The 3.85 is real; the way he got there isn't. In this ballpark he's carrying a run and a half more damage than he does on the road, he throws a 92-mph fastball nearly half the time and hitters have punished it, and the last time he saw this Pittsburgh lineup he was taken deep three times in five and a third. The Pirates answer with seven right-handed bats tonight, and right-handed bats are where Abbott bleeds home runs. Brandon Lowe is 13 for his last 27. Nick Gonzales is hitting .377 over two weeks. That's the part of the card I want holding the bat.
Then there's what's left in each dugout after the starters walk. Cincinnati burned five relievers Friday and ran Pagán out both nights — game seven of an eleven-game homestand, six games in seven days, and the arms are showing it. Pittsburgh went out this morning and bought a closer, which is what a team does when it knows exactly where it's been losing games. And I keep coming back to the bottom of the Reds' order: Suárez, Trevino, Friedl, McLain freshly back off the shelf — that group has been close to automatic outs for a week, and tonight they get 97 with a hook. Two one-run losses is not the same thing as being outplayed twice. Pittsburgh is the better run-scoring club with the better arm on the mound, and I'll pay the fourteen cents I didn't have to pay at five in the morning.
Props on this game
5Sal StewartOVER 0.5 RBI RBI+202
Not yet graded
Stewart leads the majors in RBIs and he's not slowing down. Last night alone he drove in four runs, including the go-ahead two-run homer off Paul Skenes and the two-run single that tied it back up in the eighth. Over his last two weeks he's driving in a run and a half a game and hitting .307 with runners in scoring position, and he bats second behind a De La Cruz who's reaching base close to half the time right now. I only need him to drive in one, and that's been closer to a coin flip going his way than the price suggests.
Nick GonzalesOVER 1.5 Hits Hits+230
Not yet graded
Gonzales is seeing the ball as well as anyone in this lineup. He's hitting .377 over his last fifteen games, twenty-three hits in sixty-one at-bats, and his swing-and-miss rate has dropped into the low twenties, which tells me it's contact, not just balls finding holes. He's hitting fifth for the better offense in this series and multi-hit nights have been his normal the last two weeks, not the exception. I don't have anything on him against Abbott specifically, but I don't need history when the form is this loud.
Nathaniel LoweOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+550
LActual 0
Andrew Abbott is a lefty who's actually allowed more home run pop to right-handed hitters than lefties this season, and Nathaniel Lowe is the mirror image of that: he can't do much against left-handed pitching, but turn him loose on a right-hander and he's a real threat, twelve homers and an .865 OPS in that split. Two separate ways of reading this at-bat, both pointing the same way.
Lowe's also been a much better home-run hitter in his own park than on the road this year, nine of those twelve homers coming at home, and he's in Cincinnati tonight. Abbott's actual results back it up, too — his ERA at Great American Ball Park is a run and a half worse than everywhere else he's pitched, and the quality of contact he's been allowing all year says his season numbers are a little better than they should be, which tells me there's more here than a 3.85 ERA lets on.
Lowe's swinging it fine lately as well, .310 with nine RBI over his last fifteen games. I don't need every piece to hit, I just need Abbott out over the plate enough times and Lowe letting one fly.
Esmerlyn ValdezOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+325
LActual 0
Esmerlyn Valdez has done real damage against left-handed pitching this season, seven home runs in just 48 at-bats, an eye-opening rate for a right-handed bat, and Andrew Abbott throws left-handed. Abbott himself has actually given up home runs at a better clip to right-handers than to lefties this year, so both halves of this matchup line up the same direction.
Valdez has four homers in his last fifteen games, including one in the last week, so the ball's been finding the air even though the average has been ugly — plenty of swing-and-miss mixed in with that power, and I want to say that plainly rather than pretend it isn't there. His history at this specific ballpark is thin and not good, one hit in seven at-bats, so I'm not leaning on that.
What I am leaning on is a full season of him hitting left-handers hard and a Reds starter whose results this year have run a little better than the actual contact quality he's allowed — which says this lineup should get enough of him to work with tonight.
Sal StewartOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+432
LActual 0
Sal Stewart is a big reason Cincinnati is up two games in this series, and he's made a habit of it against this specific Pittsburgh staff — four RBI and the go-ahead homer off Paul Skenes two nights ago, five RBI in the series overall. He leads all of baseball in RBIs right now, and the contact quality has backed up the results lately, over ninety-four miles an hour average exit velocity with multiple barreled balls in his recent games.
The honest knock is the matchup shape — Braxton Ashcraft has actually been tougher on right-handed hitters than lefties this season, and Stewart himself has hit left-handers a shade better than righties for his career, so I'm not picking this because the split favors him. I'm picking it because of how he's actually performing against this exact team, in this park, this week, and a hitter seeing it this well doesn't stop just because a season-long split says it should be harder.
At plus-432, I don't need the matchup to bend his way, I just need one more mistake from a staff that's already given him five hits and a homer in two games.
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