Daily archive

2026-08-02

The stored Gary board for Sun, Aug 2. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB1:35 PM

Phillies @ Orioles

Sunday afternoon game in Baltimore, the series is tied one to one, and the last thing the Orioles saw was a Phillies lefty striking out a pile of their guys and jawing at their dugout as he walked off. Now they have to deal with Zack Wheeler. The line opened this morning with Philadelphia as a modest favorite and it's gotten noticeably more expensive since, while the payout on Baltimore hasn't budged. That's not both sides getting bet — that's the sportsbook picking a side. Wheeler is the best player on this field and it isn't close. Great record, tiny earned run average, and the underlying stuff says it's real, not luck. His splitter gets swings and misses about half the time hitters offer at it, and he's got a nasty breaking ball right behind it. He got hit around in Miami six days ago — short outing, a handful of runs — but the market shrugged that off as one bad night, and so do I. Waiting for him is the thinnest Baltimore lineup of the season. Two of their better bats are gone. Several regulars are in brutal cold stretches, one of them hasn't managed a hit in over ten tries and barely hits at all in day games. Four lefty bats in that order against a righty who's smothered lefties all year. One of their guys is swinging it well and another has been their hot bat, but that hot bat basically disappears in daylight. Baltimore's starter has been okay and nothing more — he lets too many guys on base, his sinker doesn't miss bats, and his fastball gets hit hard. I'll be honest, I don't love the price. It's very close to what I think the game is actually worth, and paying up after the line already moved against me is not how you grow a bankroll. Two things tip me over. Philadelphia's relievers are fresh — their closer barely threw last night and nobody pitched two days in a row — while Baltimore's late-inning guys are the same ones who coughed up a bunch of runs in the eighth yesterday, including one who needed twenty pitches to get a single out. And the alternate bet where Philadelphia has to win by two or more is a trap; the price there assumes that happens way more often than it really does. So I'm just taking them to win, straight up. The one thing that can wreck it is the weather — storms are in play, and a long rain delay pulls Wheeler early and hands the ball to guys I trust a whole lot less. That's the risk I'm accepting. Phillies to win.

Phillies ML-145

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62%

MLB1:35 PM

Nationals @ Braves

Sunday afternoon game in Atlanta, and the Braves have already won the first three of this series. But the guy they're handing the ball to today wasn't even supposed to be here — he was penciled in to pitch in the minors this weekend. Here's how we got here: their Saturday starter's knee gave out during warmups about an hour before first pitch. A veteran woke up from a nap, volunteered, and damn near threw a no-hitter into the seventh. Problem is, he was the guy slated for today. So the finale goes to a kid called up on a day's notice, making his first start in the big leagues since the end of June. And his profile is pretty specific. His curveball is genuinely nasty — hitters swing at it, miss it, and when they do touch it, they don't hit it hard. Everything else, though, has gotten smacked around, especially the fastballs he likes to start guys off with, and left-handed hitters have done most of the damage. Washington is starting six lefties and two switch-hitters, and their most dangerous bats are dangerous in exactly that way — Wood, Abrams and García have been crushing fastballs all season, and Abrams and García are two of the hottest hitters in the sport right now. Meanwhile Washington's starter got an extra day of rest, has been going deep into games almost every time out lately, throws hard, and has a breaking ball he'll use whenever he wants. For the first time in this series, the better pitcher is wearing the road uniform. What worries me is the ninth inning. Atlanta's closer situation is settled; Washington's is a mess, and nobody in this division gives away more free bases with sloppy defense than the Nationals. That's real, and it's the whole reason this line is where it is. But Atlanta's best hitters have gone cold — Acuña, Harris and Riley have all been quiet for a week, and Riley just hasn't been the same guy in day games — and the wind is blowing in from right field, which takes away exactly the kind of left-handed power that decided the first three games. At this price I'll take the real starter, the matchup edge, and a team that's been better on the road than at home all year. Washington on the moneyline.

Nationals ML+101

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60%

MLB1:37 PM

Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Sunday afternoon game with the roof shut in Toronto, the trade deadline sitting there ticking down to Monday night, and the Blue Jays are one win away from sweeping a Cardinals team that hasn't put up more than a single run since it crossed the border. Everything you see at a glance tells you to just pay up and take Toronto. That's the exact reason I'm going the other way. Look at how the price moved. Early this morning Toronto was barely favored, and by the time the lineups came out you had to pay a lot more for them. Nothing happened in those few hours to make this team that much better. Guerrero's been playing all series, the roof was always going to be closed, and the only real news was confirmation that Max Scherzer is starting. Scherzer has barely pitched this year — a handful of starts and not many innings in them — and he's been hit harder in this ballpark than anywhere else. His last time out they yanked him before he got through the third, coming off a seven-week layoff. Whatever he's got today, it isn't going deep. Toronto already burned through four relievers yesterday, Hoffman has pitched two days in a row, and that same tired group has to cover most of this game with a flight to Houston waiting on them. Liberatore isn't anybody's ace, but he's the one starter here who's actually been taking his regular turn, and St. Louis is putting four lefty hitters in the lineup against a righty who's been getting beat up by lefties all season long. Here's the honest risk: if Toronto is lining up Bieber to follow Scherzer as a showcase the day before the deadline, this whole thing looks different. And the Cardinals have scored two runs in two days, so don't mistake this for me betting on their offense to come alive. I'm not buying the team. I'm buying the price. A club you could've had cheaper this morning is even cheaper now purely because it looks dead in the water, and I'll happily take the better payout with the more reliable starter and a bullpen that hasn't thrown since Thursday.

Cardinals ML+113

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61%

MLB1:40 PM

Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Getaway day in Cleveland, early afternoon start, and there's weather hanging over the lake. The Guardians are trying not to get swept at home by a team that's playing like a freight train right now. The interesting part is the price. It opened this morning with Cleveland as a modest favorite and it's been shoved way up since, and nothing happened to justify it — no trade, no scratch. That's the market bowing down to one guy on the mound. Gavin Williams has earned some of that. He throws hard, his breaking ball makes hitters look silly, and he's been at his best in this ballpark all year. But watch what actually happens when he pitches here. His last three starts he went deep, piled up strikeouts, and Cleveland lost every one of them. This offense has barely scored over its last ten games and gave him nothing at all in two of those starts. You're being asked to lay a big price on a pitcher, not on a ballclub, and those aren't the same bet. Behind him is a bullpen that got torched last night, has three arms running on empty, and just sent a reliever back to the minors this morning. And this lineup in daylight is ugly top to bottom — their best hitters are scuffling badly, and even their most reliable bat falls off a cliff in day games. I'm not pretending Merrill Kelly is the reason I'm on this side. He isn't. He gets hit hard, his last four starts have been ordinary, and Cleveland loads up lefties against him on purpose. I'm here because Arizona has been scoring in bunches for two straight weeks, because they put the bat on the ball as well as anybody and don't need their starter to be perfect, because they hit better in the daytime up and down the order, and because they've already come into this park twice this week and won both. When the team that's been winning nearly everything is the underdog against a club that's been losing nearly everything, you don't have to be right about the pitchers. You just have to be right about which lineup is more likely to hang a big inning. Give me Arizona and the plus money.

Diamondbacks ML+144

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63%

MLB1:40 PM

White Sox @ Rays

**Gary's Take** Sunday afternoon game in Tampa, first pitch a little before two, and these two first-place teams have spent two days showing me exactly who they are. Friday the White Sox hit a bunch of home runs and won easily. Saturday the Rays' starter was untouchable, the closer slammed the door for another save, and Chicago never scored. Now it's the deciding game, both teams have travel on their minds, and Tampa flies to Denver tonight. Here's what really settles this one: neither starting pitcher is going to be anywhere near the finish. Kay hasn't gotten past the fifth inning in over a month of starts, and Jax averages about five innings every time out. This is a bullpen game with an early start time. Kay is a lefty, and Tampa's lineup is full of exactly the kind of hitters who've been hurting him all year. Righties have crushed him; lefties have barely touched him. Tampa is running out six right-handed bats, and the best of them are built to beat left-handers — Caminero has done real damage against them, most of Vilade's homers have come off lefties, and Diaz is even better in day games. Flip it around and Chicago sends five left-handed hitters up against a righty in the afternoon, and most of that group has been pretty ordinary. Tampa's home record this year isn't an accident — you can see why right on the lineup card. Then the late innings, which is where I'm really making this pick. Chicago traded their closer away this morning, and the arm they got back isn't pitching today. They burned one reliever for a long outing yesterday, another Thursday, one more has thrown two days in a row, and they called someone up this morning just to have a warm body. Tampa counters with a closer who's been nearly perfect, a setup man who barely lets anyone reach base, two more solid arms behind them, and nobody who pitched yesterday. They've shut teams out four times in their last seven. Being fair about it: Tampa's bats have been quiet lately, one of their guys is in a two-week slump, and the price here isn't cheap. But Chicago's number moved toward the favorite this morning while Tampa's never budged. When money comes in on one side and the favorite's price doesn't move, I'll take the side that stood still.

Tampa Bay Rays ML-150

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64%

MLB1:40 PM

Marlins @ Mets

Sunday afternoon game at Citi Field, first pitch just before two, wind blowing across the field from right to left off the bay, and the trade deadline hanging over both teams. Miami already took the first two games of this series and it wasn't close in either one. Now the finale gives Miami one of their best arms, Sandy Alcantara, against a guy most people in that ballpark had to look up. Marlins are the small favorite, a hair pricier than they were this morning. Robert Stock hasn't pitched in the majors since June of last year, and hasn't started a big league game since 2021. The Mets called him up from the minors this morning. Whatever he has left, he's got to bring it against a Miami lineup stacked with lefty and switch hitters — Kyle Stowers is red hot with four home runs in the past week and hitting the ball as hard as anyone, Griffin Conine has three more and has been crushing right-handers, Liam Hicks has hit them all year long. And the safety net got thinner overnight: the Mets sent one reliever down, cut another loose, and replaced him with a kid from the minors. So the middle innings are a real problem, not a formality. Alcantara has been the exact opposite — going deep into games in five of his last six, seven scoreless against Philadelphia last week, and he's owned this Mets team over his career. The only thing making me think twice is the price and a few honest red flags. Miami has been bad on the road this year, the bats have gone quiet the last two weeks, and Citi Field is the kind of ballpark that turns a good lineup into a one-run grind. Lindor is the one who scares me — he's hit Alcantara well, he's been on fire the last two weeks, and he's swinging like the only guy in that dugout who hasn't given up on the season. But at this price I'm not paying for a sure thing, I'm paying for a near coin flip in a game where one side has a proven starter on normal rest and the other is holding tryouts on deadline eve with a shorthanded bullpen behind him. The price hasn't accounted for that gap. Marlins to win, and let Sandy do his thing.

Marlins ML-120

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64%

MLB1:40 PM

Pirates @ Reds

**Gary's Take** It's a 1:40 start on a Sunday in Cincinnati with storms rolling around the Ohio River, and this series has been about as tight as it gets — the first three games decided by a handful of runs combined. Chase Burns goes for the Reds, chasing a franchise record that's stood since the mid-eighties. Mitch Keller goes for Pittsburgh, still looking for his first win since the end of June. On paper that's the whole story, and on paper the price makes sense. It isn't the whole story. Burns is the best arm in the park today, and he's also the one who won't be out there long. He hasn't gone past six innings in any of his last six starts — he's a rookie, nobody in that clubhouse has really answered how much he can handle, and his manager has said as much about being careful with him. So that means four innings of Cincinnati bullpen on a getaway day, and that bullpen just burned Moll, Garcia and Ferguson on back-to-back nights, with Santillan and Ashcraft still hurt behind them. And the team Burns is pitching for doesn't hit much, doesn't score much, and has a losing record in its own building. Pittsburgh's been rough the last two weeks, but over the full season it's the better offense by a run a night, and today it lines up six lefty bats against a righty who has given up almost all of his home runs to left-handed hitters. Horwitz is back off the injured list in that group. Doval got activated this morning to give the late innings more juice. The hole here is Keller, obviously — he's been worse than his numbers look and he's taken a beating all summer. What saves him is who's digging in against him: Cincinnati wrote out six righties, and righties have barely touched him all year. The market's already moving my way — Pittsburgh was a better payout this morning than it is now, which tells you where the money went and that I'd rather have had the earlier number. I'll still take it. If the sky opens up like it did last night, it's Burns who gets pulled early, not Keller, and the side with the deeper bullpen and the better lineup gets the last four innings. Pirates on the moneyline.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML+120

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62%

MLB2:10 PM

Rangers @ Astros

Sunday afternoon in Houston, roof closed, perfect conditions inside. The Astros are going for the sweep with first place on the line, and Texas is limping into the final stop of a long road trip — playing a day game right after a night game. Houston's been rolling, winning almost every game for the past couple weeks. Texas has dropped four straight and can barely scratch out a couple runs a night. The price on Houston opened cheaper this morning and got bet up once the starting pitchers were announced. That tells me where the money went. My job is deciding whether it went to the right place. It did, and the lineup cards are why. Peter Lambert has been close to unhittable against left-handed batters all season, and Texas is sending four lefties out in the top of their order — Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter. Seager just came off the injured list and has barely hit in daytime games. Carter and Pederson have both struggled in the sun, and Cam Cauley hasn't gotten a single day-game hit all year. That's a worn-out road offense walking into exactly the arm built to beat it. Kumar Rocker is the real argument against me — his slider is nasty, and Houston's righties in Peña, Paredes and Walker don't handle sliders. But he only throws that pitch about a third of the time. The rest is a sinker and a cutter that hitters square up, and Houston hits sinkers as well as anyone. He faced this same group three weeks ago and got hammered for seven runs with three home runs, and that was in Arlington, not next to a short left field wall. Then when both starters come out around the sixth, Houston hands the ball to Bryan King, Abreu and a closer who hasn't blown a save all year — all of them threw only a handful of pitches yesterday. Texas hands it to one of the weaker bullpens in the league, one that burned three arms covering for deGrom last night and sent another guy back to the minors this morning. That gap decides a close game in August. The honest part: the price is the worst thing about this bet. I'm not getting a bargain here. Houston has been under .500 in games where they could sweep a series, and that's the one thing in the file that makes me worry about a letdown with Toronto coming in tomorrow. Laying extra runs doesn't fix it either — Texas plays in a ton of one-run games and thrives in them, so asking Houston to win by two or more is betting on a specific kind of game I have no reason to expect. So I take the side straight and pay the tax. Better starter, the right-versus-left matchups on both sides, fresher arms late, and a road team running on empty on getaway day. Astros to win.

Astros ML-142

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64%

MLB2:20 PM

Yankees @ Cubs

Here's the rewrite: **Gary's Take** The wind at Wrigley is blowing straight in from the outfield this afternoon — hard, and gusting harder — and these two teams have already played a couple of games where neither starter gave up much of anything. Gerrit Cole against Colin Rea looks like the easiest call on the board. That's exactly why I want to look twice at the price. Cole is the better pitcher, no argument from me. But look at what the Yankees have turned into: they're barely scoring, hitting for a low average as a team over the last two weeks, and just about every run they've scored in this series came on a home run — Rosario's monster shot Friday, Spencer Jones twice. Judge, Stanton and Bellinger have been out long enough that the betting market has already accounted for it. The wind hasn't been accounted for. A stiff breeze blowing in takes away the one thing this offense can still do and forces them to string singles together behind Grisham, McMahon, Caballero and Wells — none of whom have hit much of anything in two weeks. Cole gives up a lot of fly balls, so the wind helps him too. It just hurts the side that has to score for him a lot more. Rea is a different guy at home than on the road — much better at Wrigley, much worse everywhere else — and today his fastball gets to float up in the zone without getting punished for it. Behind him, the Cubs have been scoring in bunches over the last two weeks, with Hoerner red-hot, Bregman swinging it well, and Crow-Armstrong coming through with runners on. That's a lineup that scores in the gaps and on the ground, which is the only way anybody scores today. New York is on the tenth day of a road trip, playing an afternoon game after a night game, coming off a bullpen that blew the seventh and cut Doval loose yesterday. This one gets decided late by whoever has fresher arms, and that's Chicago. The Cubs were a nice underdog price this morning and the money has pushed it toward a coin flip since — I'll take them at plus money while it's still there.

Cubs ML+106

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61%

MLB3:10 PM

Royals @ Rockies

Sunday afternoon in the mountain air, the day before the trade deadline, and Colorado has already won this series — they took Friday and then hammered Saturday, with Hunter Goodman hitting two out of the park. The Royals even watched their guy Lane Thomas get yanked mid-inning because Atlanta wanted him in a trade. Kansas City is finishing up a long ten-game road trip and heading home after this. That's the mood in the building. Now the actual game. On paper the starting pitchers look lopsided — Kyle Freeland's record and runs allowed look awful, Seth Lugo's look solid. But dig underneath and they've basically pitched the same. Lugo has been getting the friendly bounces, Freeland has been getting punished by the unlucky ones. Strip the luck out and there's almost nothing between them. And both are throwing up in thin air today, where Lugo's big breaking ball — the pitch he uses to get guys chasing — doesn't bite the same way, while Freeland's main pitch is what it's always been. So I don't think either arm gives you an advantage. That means the hitters decide this one, and that's where the price stops adding up for me. Colorado left Hunter Goodman off the lineup card today. He's the biggest bat they have, set a franchise record for home runs by a catcher, and just had a monster night at the plate — and he's sitting, one day before he might get traded to New York or Boston. Kyle Karros, who's been raking in this series, is out too. So you're left with Brett Sullivan hitting low in the order ahead of three guys who've been ice cold for two weeks. On top of that, the Rockies have been terrible closing out series and terrible the day after they win, and Freeland has been getting taken deep by right-handed hitters all year — which is exactly the profile of the few Royals actually swinging it well right now. Yes, Kansas City is banged up and dragging at the end of a road trip. But this is a toss-up wearing a favorite's price tag, and when I'm being asked to lay real money on a losing team that's missing its best hitter and running out its worst starter, I'll happily take the other side and get paid extra for it.

Royals ML+106

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61%

MLB3:15 PM

Brewers @ Angels

**Gary's Take** First pitch just after noon in Anaheim, sun's out, hot with a light breeze, and Milwaukee's going for the sweep on the last day of a long road trip. Misiorowski against Ureña, and the price on the Brewers has climbed since before sunrise. Here's what got my attention: strip out the house's cut, and the market thinks exactly what it thought at five this morning — same odds on Milwaukee winning, then and now. The price went up and the actual opinion didn't move at all. That's not new information getting baked in. That's the book taking a bigger cut, and somebody's got to pay for it. Part of what's weighing on this price is yesterday's mess. The Angels pulled Soriano on Saturday with the trade deadline two days away and used Suter as a fill-in starter, and a team that looks like it's selling itself for parts tends to get punished a little extra the next day too. But Saturday was Saturday. Today they hand it to Ureña, who's been terrific in nearly all of his recent starts — he walks too many guys and he doesn't go deep, but he's a real big-league starter, not a band-aid. On the other side, Misiorowski is the best arm in baseball and he's also on a short rope: he's been pulled early his last two times out, and his manager has said openly he's managing the workload coming off a break, and not just to be careful. Both of these guys are gone by the fifth. So this is really a bullpen game dressed up as an ace matchup — and Milwaukee's late-inning guys, Uribe and Megill, both pitched Friday and Saturday. Anaheim's relievers had a day off in between and nobody there threw two nights in a row. So I'm not laying a big price with a road team whose closer is on his third straight day at the end of a trip. Give me the Angels and the run and a half at plus money. This team is built for exactly this ticket whether they like it or not — a huge chunk of their season has come down to one run, and they've lost a pile of those, which is a rough way to live and a perfectly fine way to cash a ticket. Add up the one-run losses and the outright wins and the Angels have covered this number in well over half their games, while the price is only asking for a bit under half. Last night they lost by two; one more swing and it's a winner. What beats me is Milwaukee putting up a big inning early and turning this into another blowout like they've already had twice in this ballpark, and I won't pretend a bad team on a five-game losing streak is a comfy place to put money. It doesn't have to be comfortable. It has to cost less than it's worth, and here it does.

Angels +1.5+113

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62%

MLB4:05 PM

Tigers @ Athletics

Sunday afternoon in West Sacramento, first pitch in the late afternoon, brutal heat and a breeze pushing out toward right. This is the last game of a long homestand for a team that's been losing constantly — dropped four straight, most of their last ten, and hasn't beaten Detroit once all year, including a blowout Friday and another loss last night. Both clubs fly out after this. The trade deadline just passed and you can feel it in the visitors' room. The home team is handing the ball to a rookie lefty just to avoid getting swept in their own park. That rookie hasn't been getting deep into games — he's barely made it past the fifth in his recent starts. His main pitch is a hard fastball he leans on constantly, and hitters have been hammering it. Detroit is stacking righties against him, and righties have already taken him over the fence a handful of times. So he leaves early, like always, and the game goes to a bullpen that's been one of the worst in the league — they lost an arm to season-ending surgery, burned through several guys last night, one of them pitching for the second time in three days, and sent another one down after he threw a ton of pitches Saturday. Meanwhile the lineup is missing its best power bat, who's been out a couple days with a hand issue, plus three more regulars. One of the guys left has been putting the ball in play with no authority at all, and another is barely hitting it hard. There's almost nothing in that order to be scared of. Here's the honest risk: Detroit's starter got roughed up his last time out, gave up a pile of hits in under five innings and wasn't missing bats. He's a fly-ball guy walking into a park that plays small with the wind blowing out. Detroit's late innings aren't airtight either — their closer coughed up a lead last night and another key arm is done for the season. That's exactly why I want them to just win the game rather than laying the extra runs for a better price. The A's play close games all the time and they scored late on Saturday — that's how a run-line ticket dies. The price has moved against me since this morning, and I don't love chasing it. Taking it anyway. The gap between these two rosters right now is bigger than what this price implies.

Detroit Tigers ML-126

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MLB4:10 PM

Twins @ Mariners

Sunday afternoon game in Seattle, and these two have split the first two, so somebody wins the series today. The guy Seattle is pitching has spent the whole weekend reading his own name in trade rumors, and he's still taking the ball two days before the deadline. When I checked this morning, Seattle was a modest favorite. Now the price on them has jumped. Somebody woke up and decided they liked the home team more than they did at dawn. I don't. Taj Bradley is simply the better pitcher right now, and it hasn't been close for about six weeks. He's barely given up runs, he's piling up strikeouts, and he's gone at least five innings every single start, so his bullpen doesn't get burned. More important than the raw numbers is how he gets outs: his cutter makes hitters swing through it constantly, and his splitter drags guys into chasing pitches they have no business swinging at. Seattle's lineup happens to be full of chasers. Their catcher is hitting terribly and whiffing on a huge share of his swings, Naylor is chasing almost half of everything, and their young infielder has been lost for two weeks. Seattle barely scores four runs a game when things are going well, and they've been under that lately. Bradley's two best pitches aim right at the soft spot in that lineup. Kirby is the one with the problems today. He barely throws his sinker, hitters neither chase it nor miss it, and they've been hammering it — and his curveball has been hit even harder. His last outing in Texas lasted four innings and included four home runs. Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers hits second, he's the hottest bat on the team, and he punishes sinkers — that's the matchup I'm buying. The fair worry is Minnesota's bullpen, since everyone in it pitched yesterday, but Bradley has been going deep into games and Kremer just got activated this morning with a totally rested arm. Two weak offenses in a ballpark that suppresses scoring means this gets decided late and tight, and I'd rather have the underdog price when it does. Twins, at a number Seattle hasn't earned.

Twins ML+122

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62%

MLB4:10 PM

Giants @ Padres

Afternoon game at Petco, last one of the series, and San Diego is still riding the good feeling from Cronenworth's late single Saturday night. After this, the Giants get on a plane to Texas and the Padres head to Arizona. Both clubs are cramming a lot of baseball into a short week and nobody's hiding it. What caught my eye is the betting market: San Francisco started the morning as a decent-sized underdog and the price on them shrank a good chunk by the time I looked again. People read two headlines — Kyle Hart is starting, which means he goes a couple innings and the bullpen handles the rest, and Tatis isn't in the lineup — and they reacted. Both of those are real. I just don't think they're worth what the market charged for them. This is the third time this series San Diego has gone with the piece-it-together approach. They won big twice doing it. Márquez and Matsui carried almost the whole game Friday and the Giants never touched them. Stammen has been mixing and matching this pitching staff all week and it's worked right in front of me — this ballpark, this opponent. So I'm not paying extra to bet against something that's already worked twice. I like the matchup for the Padres hitters even more. Roupp goes to his sinker a lot, and three of the guys in the middle of San Diego's order feast on that pitch. France has been the best bat in this park lately, Campusano has been locked in since he moved back behind the plate, and Machado has run into a few home runs over the past couple weeks. On the other side, the Giants are stacking a bunch of lefty hitters against a lefty pitcher, with Devers batting fourth — and Devers hasn't figured out lefties all year. Susac, their hottest hitter this series, isn't catching today. That team has been rough on the road, rough in series finales, and got shut down in both losses here. The fair argument against me is Tatis. Losing him takes real punch out of a lineup that's finally clicking, and I won't pretend that doesn't matter. Miller is the other worry — he threw a lot of pitches last night and blew his first save of the season, so the ninth inning might be messier than usual. That's exactly why I'm taking them straight up to win instead of laying runs for a bigger payout. I want the win, not the margin. And I'm getting a better price on San Diego than I would have this morning, on the side money walked away from for reasons this series has already answered. Padres.

Padres ML-131

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62%

MLB7:20 PM

Red Sox @ Dodgers

**Gary's Take** Sunday night in Los Angeles, hot out, wind blowing toward right field, and the best team in the National League is one loss away from getting swept at home by a Boston club that spent all of July climbing the standings. Emmet Sheehan pitches for the Dodgers. Jake Bennett pitches for Boston, and not a single hitter in that Dodger lineup has ever faced him before. The price on the Dodgers opened this morning and has jumped way up since, and I can't find a single thing that justifies the move. Contreras cleared his testing and he's batting fourth. Bennett is starting like we knew he would. Nothing broke Boston's way, nothing broke against them. What actually changed is Betts and Tucker being back in the lineup after barely playing Saturday — and both of them have been ice cold at the plate for two weeks — plus a national TV game, a fresh Skubal trade, and a clubhouse that isn't supposed to drop three in a row at home. That's a feeling, not a matchup, and I'll bet against a feeling every time. Here's what really decides it. Sheehan hasn't gotten through the sixth inning in any of his last six starts, and his team lost five of those six. He's pitched better than his numbers look, I'll give him that, but he's still handing the ball over in the fifth — and that bullpen is a mess. They lost Klein to an elbow Saturday, Stewart's shoulder is hurt again, they're still waiting on Treinen, and Diaz has been getting hammered since he came back. Roberts said it himself this week: sometimes you take one on the chin to protect the arms. This is the sixth game of a homestand with a flight to Chicago waiting. Boston's the opposite — barely used their bullpen over three days, and Whitlock and Chapman are both fresh and both pitching great. Bennett's changeup is his bread and butter, hitters swing through it constantly and chase it out of the zone even more, and Freeman, Muncy and Rushing have all struggled with that pitch all year. Ohtani will do damage — he handles both of Bennett's main pitches — but Ohtani only comes up once every nine batters. I'm being asked to pay full price on a Dodger team whose starter can't get through five and whose bullpen is held together with tape. Give me Boston to win the game.

Red Sox ML+153

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62%

Player props

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler punched out at least nine hitters in four of his last five starts before the Miami game, and even in that one his whiff rate held right in line with every other outing this stretch — the two homers that day were mistakes over the plate, not a drop in stuff. Today he's facing an Orioles order that's already without Rutschman and Basallo behind the plate, and without Mountcastle or Westburg anywhere in the lineup — a shorthanded group that strikes out as a team more than the Phillies lineup does, and Wheeler's held opposing hitters to right around a .200 average or lower from both sides of the plate all year. Eight and a half feels light for what he's been doing to healthier lineups than this one.

OVER 8.5 Strikeouts+168

MLB · Phillies @ Orioles

Alec Bohm

Bohm's driven in thirteen runs across his last fifteen games — that's not a hot week, that's a hot month — and he's doing it hitting cleanup behind a Phillies top of the order that's doing damage right now, Turner especially. He's also two-for-five with no strikeouts in his career against Bradish specifically. Getting plus money on a guy who's knocked in a run more nights than not over the last two weeks, hitting right behind the exact bats getting on in front of him, is a number the board is underpricing.

OVER 0.5 RBI+208

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

CJ Abrams

Eight home runs in his last fifteen games, a .370 average, an OPS over 1.300 in that stretch. That's not one lucky night carrying an average, that's sustained hard contact, and it's arriving right as Atlanta hands the ball to a pitcher who was pitching in Gwinnett as of this morning.

OVER 2.5 Total Bases+212

MLB · Nationals @ Braves

Cade Cavalli

Cavalli's building up, not breaking down. He's gone six innings or more in four of his last five starts, topped by a seven-inning, thirteen-strikeout outing against Boston.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs+100

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

George Springer

Springer's locked in right now — pushing a .950 OPS over his last fifteen games with real power showing up in the box score, and the contact backs it up. He's squaring the ball up hard and consistently, not riding a few lucky bloopers.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+137

MLB · Cardinals @ Blue Jays

Alec Burleson

Burleson's been red hot for two weeks running, hitting well over .350 with an OPS pushing .830 over his last fifteen games, and that's across a deep enough sample to trust it. He's a lefty stepping into a matchup where left-handed hitters have made Scherzer look every bit his age this year — a thousand-plus OPS and a home run every dozen at-bats or so.

OVER 1.5 Hits+195

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Gavin Williams

Williams has turned into a strikeout machine over his last month — eleven or more strikeouts in four straight starts, a level he wasn't at back in June. His last time out in Cincinnati, hitters were missing on nearly half of their swings against him, and that kind of jump usually means the stuff has actually taken a step forward rather than the results just running hot.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts+156

MLB · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

Kwan is running about as hot as anyone in this lineup, hitting well over .430 across his last two weeks, and he does his damage through volume of contact rather than waiting around for one big swing — exactly the profile that piles up total bases against a pitcher who's letting hitters square him up as often as Merrill Kelly has this year. Kelly's actually been more hittable against lefty bats than righties in terms of the damage he allows, and Kwan gets that side of the platoon today. He leads off, so he's guaranteed the most trips to the plate on the roster, and he's already clearing this number in about three of every four games recently. This is a bet on him doing what he's been doing, at a price that still treats it like a toss-up.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+165

MLB HR · Diamondbacks @ Guardians

Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo's carrying two home runs and an OPS over 1.200 through his last week, and the contact backs it up — three barreled balls in his last ten balls in play, a real jump in the quality of contact he's making. He's a left-handed bat facing a right-hander with a specific problem with lefty power — Kelly's given up a home run to a left-handed hitter at a rate of roughly one every seventeen at-bats this season, notably higher than what he allows to righties. This is a one-swing bet and I know it, but Manzardo is the hottest bat in this lineup right now, walking into the exact matchup that's hurt this pitcher most.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami's in the middle of a real power stretch — four homers over his last seven games — and the contact underneath it backs up the results instead of contradicting them, which is the part that usually gets waved off when a guy's just running hot. He's a left-handed bat that's mashed right-handed pitching all year, over 1.000 OPS with the bulk of his power coming against righties, and Jax has specifically been more hittable against lefties than righties in 2026, not less. Tropicana suppresses offense, but it doesn't suppress bat speed, and I don't need a home run to cash this — one extra-base knock does it.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+158

MLB · White Sox @ Rays

Anthony Kay

I'm not betting against Kay because of one bad month — I'm betting against him because tonight's lineup is built to find the one hole he has. Right-handed hitters have an .851 OPS against him this season, and Tampa Bay is running out six of them in the first nine spots.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-172

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Francisco Lindor

Lindor's in the best stretch of his season right now, and he's got real history against the guy on the mound today — thirty-three career at-bats against Alcantara with a couple of homers and an OPS north of .900. That's a hitter who sees this specific pitcher well, catching him at a moment where his overall swing looks as good as it's looked all year. I don't need a home run here — just one extra-base hit, or a two-hit day, both of which feel very much in play against an arm he's had success with before.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+128

MLB · Marlins @ Mets

Liam Hicks

Hicks has been one of the better all-around hitting catchers in the league all year — among qualified guys at the position, he entered the weekend near the top in both average and on-base percentage. Nearly everything he's done for power this season has come against right-handers, and that's exactly what he gets today: a right-hander making his first start in five years, clearly not the Mets' first choice for the assignment. I'm not asking for a home run here — a double, or a two-hit day, is well within what he's shown all season in this matchup, and the price is offering more doubt than I think is warranted.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

MLB HR · Marlins @ Mets

Griffin Conine

Conine's been running one of the best power stretches on this roster for close to a month — seven homers and eleven RBIs over his last twenty-one games, and it hasn't cooled off, with three more homers in the last week alone. That's an established run, not a one-week blip, and he's kept producing right through a stretch where his name has circulated in trade rumors — this Miami group has been playing like a team with its eyes on October, not the deadline. Against a pitcher who hasn't thrown a competitive big league inning in five years, I like paying for the power at this number.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+423

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Nick Gonzales

He's hitting .354 over his last 15 games with a strikeout rate that says the average isn't an accident — 19% whiff is about as clean a bat-to-ball profile as anyone on this board. He's also a day-game hitter specifically, .323 with an .874 OPS in day games this year, and this one starts at 1:40 in the afternoon.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+101

MLB · Pirates @ Reds

Brandon Lowe

Lowe is running a .452 average over his last week with three barreled balls in that stretch — this isn't empty contact, the exit-velocity data backs up the hot streak. He's in the two-hole tonight, which means at-bats and RBI chances both, and Burns, for as dominant as he's been overall, has actually given up more damage to left-handed bats than right — 11 home runs allowed to lefties against just 2 to righties this season. Lowe has cleared this exact number in two out of every three games over his last 15. I don't need him to do anything he hasn't already been doing all week.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is in one of those stretches where mistakes get punished and quality contact keeps finding grass — well over a thousand OPS points over his last two weeks, and it isn't cheap contact. Rocker leans on his sinker almost three times in ten pitches, and that's been the softest pitch in his arsenal all year, hit around .320 with an ugly slugging number against it.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110

MLB · Rangers @ Astros

Peter Lambert

Lambert has simply owned the Rangers — under .200 against him for his career, and the one time he faced them already this year he worked six innings on three hits. He's also catching Texas about as low as they've been all season: Jung's out, Foscue isn't even in the lineup after going cold, and Seager just came back from a long absence with a day-game track record that's never been strong to begin with. Lambert doesn't need to miss a ton of bats against a lineup this shorthanded and this cold. He's worked at least five innings in every one of his last six turns, and this looks like one of the longer ones.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-120

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

Colin Rea

Rea's been hit hard in five of his last six turns, and the expected numbers say his ERA has actually been a little better than what he's earned — that's not a pitcher due for a correction in his favor, that's one due for more of the same. He's letting hitters square him up at a 40% hard-hit clip, and today's Yankees lineup runs left-handed at the top and through the middle, which is the side that's given him the higher average against all year. The wind blowing in tonight knocks down fly balls, sure, but a ball that dies on the track still counts the same as a clean single. I want the hits total, not the power.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-120

MLB · Yankees @ Cubs

Gerrit Cole

Cole's stuff is playing at full strength right now — mid-to-upper 90s heat, a slider and a changeup both missing bats north of 23%, a curveball he can bury when he's ahead in the count. He's worked into the sixth or deeper in four of his last six turns and struck out at least seven in four of those same six.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+105

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Kyle Freeland

Freeland against this lineup, in this park, on a hundred-degree afternoon, is about as soft a matchup as this board offers. He's carrying a 7.34 ERA into the start and it's not an unlucky number — he's allowed four or more earned runs in four of his last six outings, and his road ERA is actually worse than what he's done at Coors, which tells me the problem is stuff and command, not just thin air.

OVER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+122

MLB · Royals @ Rockies

Seth Lugo

Lugo issuing two walks a start has been close to automatic — it's shown up in five of his last six outings, and the lone exception was a start where he issued none at all. That's an unusually tight, repeatable pattern for a pitching prop, and a price sitting at even money isn't pricing that consistency in.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks+102

MLB HR · Royals @ Rockies

Salvador Perez

Perez has gone deep five times in his last fifteen games, and he's a right-handed bat walking into the exact matchup that's hurt Freeland most all season — right-handers are hitting him at a rate north of .300 with nineteen home runs allowed. That split has held up over a full year, not just one bad month, and it's paired with a road ERA that's actually worse than his Coors number.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Jacob Misiorowski

Twelve strikeouts in five innings his last time out — that's a pitcher getting more dangerous the shorter Milwaukee keeps his leash, not less. His whiff rate has climbed start to start and sat at 50% in that last outing.

OVER 9.5 Strikeouts+106

MLB · Brewers @ Angels

Jake Bauers

Bauers set a new career high in homers this weekend and he's hitting .444 over his last week doing it. This isn't a fluky hot streak from nowhere — his damage all year has come against right-handed pitching, and that's exactly what's on the mound for the Angels today. He's driving the ball with real authority right now, and I don't see anything in what Ureña's shown lately that changes that. One extra-base hit or a two-hit day gets this done, and I like the price for a hitter running this hot against a matchup that favors him.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+185

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Hao-Yu Lee

Lee's been on base in almost every game he's played the last two weeks — a hit in 12 of his last 15, and it's not just empty singles, he's barreled the ball twice in his last eleven balls in play, more than you'd expect from a bottom-of-the-order bat. Getting to two combined hits, runs, and RBIs doesn't ask much of a guy reaching base at that rate, especially hitting in front of Max Clark and behind Torkelson and Valencia, both of whom are locked in right now too. I don't need him to do anything special here, just keep doing what he's already been doing.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-118

MLB · Tigers @ Athletics

Gage Jump

Jump's stuff and his results have been two different stories all year — a four-and-a-half ERA masks a slider and a sweeper that hitters flat can't find, whiffing on close to a third of their swings against both. When he's had the ball long enough to use them, he's punched out seven or more in five of his last eight starts. The Tigers lineup gives him some real swing-and-miss to work with too — Lee's swinging and missing more than anyone else in that lineup right now, and Torkelson and Valencia both have some chase in their game. The walks and the short outings are why his ERA looks the way it does, but the strikeout stuff has been the one consistent part of his game all year, and at this price I don't need him to fix anything else to cash it.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+181

MLB HR · Tigers @ Athletics

Gleyber Torres

Torres has gone deep twice in his last week even while his average has cooled, which tells me the swing's still on time even when the results haven't all dropped in. He gets a real look from the right side tonight — right-handed hitters have out-slugged lefties against Jump this season, and he's already allowed five home runs to right-handed bats compared to two against lefties. Jump lives with his fastball up in the zone, and hitters have batted .298 against it this year. Add a ballpark playing small in the summer heat, and Torres running into another one is a number I want at this price.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

Ryan Jeffers

Jeffers has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games — that's about as locked-in as a hitter gets right now. He's mashing the sinker this season, over .450 with an .885 slugging mark against it, and Kirby throws his own sinker better than one in every five pitches at 97 miles an hour. Kirby's stuff has been erratic start to start, and Jeffers is seeing the ball well against exactly the pitch he'll get a steady diet of tonight. The price is short because a hitter running this hot deserves to be favored, and I'll lay it.

OVER 0.5 Hits-172

MLB · Twins @ Mariners

George Kirby

Kirby's results have been better than his contact quality all year — hitters are running a .331 mark against him — and he's allowed at least six hits in five of his last six starts, including a four-homer meltdown his last time out against Texas. Minnesota's lineup is rolling, seven wins in their last ten with several bats running hot underneath the top of the order, and they get him at home in the finale of this set. Plus money on a number he's cleared almost every time out is value I want.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+125

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Ty France

France is doing everything right at the plate right now — better than a .390 average across his last two weeks, and his career numbers say day games are where he's most comfortable, which is exactly the window today's game falls into. He hits cleanup in a lineup that's won seven of eight, and he's getting to this number almost every time out lately. This isn't a hunch, it's a hitter running as hot as anyone on this roster stepping into a matchup that doesn't ask him to change a thing.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-114

MLB · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado has already gotten to Roupp for a homer in a small sample against him, and the quality of contact he's putting on sinkers this year says he should have more to show than his average suggests — the loud outs haven't all turned into hits yet. He's in the middle of a four-homer two-week stretch in the middle of a lineup that's been scoring. Getting to a hit, a run, or an RBI combined more than once tonight isn't asking much from a bat this hot against a pitch he's already proven he can find.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Jackson Merrill

Merrill's turning contact into real thump right now — five home runs in his last fifty-four at-bats, exit velocity sitting around 93 and a half over that stretch, two barrels in his last twenty-one balls in play. That's bat speed, not a bloop streak.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Phillies @ Orioles

Kyle Schwarber

Bradish throws his four-seamer less than anything else in his mix, and there's a reason for that — hitters are batting .301 against it, the softest number on his entire arsenal. Schwarber has built a career on exactly that mistake: .575 slugging against four-seamers, and against right-handers as a group he's sitting on 21 home runs in 239 at-bats this season, right around one every eleven trips. He's been quiet the last two weeks, chasing more than he's connecting, but that's never been the tell with this bat — Schwarber goes cold for stretches and then turns one hanging fastball into the whole game. The delay already ate into today's plate appearances for everybody, so I'm not counting on volume here, I just want him seeing this specific pitch when he does get up.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Manny Machado

Machado's already got a track record against Roupp — four hits in ten career at-bats, one of them gone — and his current swing backs it up. Sixteen hits in his last fifty-six at-bats with four home runs mixed in, and the contact quality is the best anywhere on this board: three barrels in his last twenty-two balls in play, whiff rate down under a quarter of his swings. That's a bat squaring the ball up consistently, not a hitter running hot on bloopers. Eight-to-one only needs to hit once in a while to cash, and everything in the recent sample says this stretch is real.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Brandon Lowe

Chase Burns has been a completely different pitcher against lefties than righties this season — eleven home runs allowed in 251 at-bats against left-handed hitters, only two in 160 against righties. That's not a small-sample blip, that's a full season of a real weakness, and Lowe is the kind of hitter positioned to exploit it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850

MLB HR · Phillies @ Orioles

Bryce Harper

Harper's numbers against right-handed pitching this season are absurd — .989 OPS, 19 home runs in 245 at-bats — and Bradish is a right-hander. He's 0-for-5 with a couple strikeouts against him personally, but five at-bats isn't a track record, it's a coin flip that landed tails once. He's also been the hottest bat in this lineup over the last week, north of a 1.000 OPS with a homer mixed in, and the small sample he has at this park has been loud. The rain is the real variable in how much game anyone sees today, but Harper doesn't need at-bats to stack up the way a contact hitter does — he needs one mistake, and the version of him swinging the bat right now has been finding those.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+625

MLB HR · Rangers @ Astros

Jeremy Pena

Peña is the one thing on this board that jumps off the page. Six home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, and it isn't empty contact — he's been squaring the ball up through that stretch, not just riding a few lucky bounces. He's a right-handed bat against a right-handed starter today, a matchup that's historically been his best split by a wide margin, and he gets to do it at home, in a park that turns fly balls to left into home runs for a swing built to pull the ball with authority.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Randy Arozarena

He's not just hot, he's been the whole story of this series. Three home runs in his last seven games, and the most recent one walked off this exact series against this exact team less than twenty-four hours ago. That's not empty contact — his exit velocity has been sitting around 93 over that stretch, three barrels in his last 21 balls in play, both his chase and whiff numbers over that window are low.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+900

MLB HR · Giants @ Padres

Ty France

France is hitting .393 with four home runs over his last fifteen games, and his power has always played better against right-handers than lefties — thirteen of his homers this year have come against exactly the arm he's facing tonight in Roupp. He's also a different hitter in day games, and this one gets going in the Petco afternoon. The thing keeping me from leaning harder is that his recent balls in play haven't been barreling much even as the results have stayed loud, which tells me part of this run has been placement as much as raw power. I still like the shape of the matchup enough to take the number.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Phillies @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

Alonso's in the middle of a two-homer week and the underlying contact — exit velocity, barrels — backs it up as real rather than lucky. He's never faced Wheeler, so there's no history to lean on either way, but his production against fastballs and sinkers, the two pitches Wheeler goes to most, is exactly the shape of hitter I'd want in this matchup on paper. The difference between this pick and the other two is the pitcher: Wheeler is having one of his best seasons, missing bats at nearly a 40 percent clip start after start, so this isn't the soft matchup Schwarber and Harper are getting across the diamond. I still like the swing path enough to take him at this price, with the same rain-delay caveat on total at-bats hanging over the whole slate today.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Dominic Canzone

Canzone's damage profile lines up with what Bradley throws most. He's slugging well over .600 against four-seam fastballs this season, and that's the pitch Bradley leans on more than anything else, just under half his total mix, and it's also the pitch that's given him the most trouble of anything in his regular mix.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Pirates @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart is the hottest hitter in this game right now — two home runs, nine RBI, and an OPS over 1.000 across his last seven games, with an average exit velocity above 95 that tells me the contact is real and not just a few balls landing right. The matchup isn't clean: Mitch Keller has actually held right-handed hitters to a much lower level than lefties this year, and his sweeper is the exact pitch he leans on to put righties away. But Keller hasn't been a consistent pitcher start to start — he's allowed multiple home runs in a game twice in his last six outings — and Stewart is doing this kind of damage against everybody right now, at home, in a park that plays in his favor. At plus-340 I don't need this a lot more than once every four games to be worth it, and lately he's been clearing that bar.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

MLB HR · Twins @ Mariners

Kody Clemens

Kirby's last start he gave up four home runs in four innings, and that's not a one-off stapled onto an otherwise clean season — he's allowed seven homers across his last six starts total, and the underlying numbers back it up, hitters are running a .331 wOBA against him this year with a 42 percent hard-hit rate. Clemens has three home runs in his last fifteen games and has real pop against right-handed pitching this season, fourteen homers worth in that split. Working against it: his track record against Kirby personally is thin and not pretty, one hit in seven career at-bats with a couple of strikeouts mixed in, and he's a clearly better hitter at night than during the day, which is what this is. But the pitcher is more of the story tonight than the hitter, and Clemens has enough in that bat to take advantage if Kirby's recent stretch is who he actually is right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Jake Bennett

Bennett's been a metronome - he's cleared this number in every one of his last six turns, working at least 5.2 every time and stretching to 7-plus twice. The matchup tonight is about as clean as it gets for a lefty: the Dodgers are trotting out five left-handed bats - Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker, Muncy, Rushing - against a pitcher who hasn't allowed a left-handed hitter a home run all season and is barely letting them hit .150. Boston's chasing a series sweep and has every reason to lean on him as long as he's dealing. This is the version of him they've gotten all year.

OVER 16.5 Pitcher Outs-105

MLB · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Freddie Freeman

Freeman is hitting .471 over his last fifteen games - twenty-four hits in fifty-one at-bats - and almost none of it has come with power, no homers in that span. That's a hitter putting the barrel on the ball and finding grass, which is exactly what this number is asking for. He's got a hit in twelve of his last fifteen games. I'm not letting the platoon split scare me off him tonight; he's seeing it too well right now.

OVER 0.5 Singles-110

MLB HR · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Ceddanne Rafaela

Rafaela hit two more out last night and he's got three homers in this series alone, six over his last fifteen games. That's not empty batting average — the exit velocity and barrel rate back it up, he's squaring balls up and driving them to all fields right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Willson Contreras

Contreras is back in the cleanup spot tonight after clearing the concussion protocol, and Boston doesn't put him back in that spot if the swing isn't all the way there. He's already got two homers in his last two weeks and he's a bat that does damage in bunches — a dozen home runs at home this season alone, and this stretch has him seeing the ball as well as he has all year. Sheehan is walking in on a stretch where his team has lost five of his last six starts, giving up hard contact most nights he's out there. Four-thirty is fair value on a hitter this locked in against a starter who hasn't been missing enough barrels to keep the ball in the park.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB HR · Red Sox @ Dodgers

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez went deep last night and he's been doing damage all week, two homers in his last seven games. He hits right-handed, and Bennett's been a completely different pitcher depending on which side of the plate is standing in against him this year — nearly automatic against lefties, but he's given up real thump to right-handed bats. That's exactly the matchup Hernandez gets tonight, mid-stretch and seeing the ball well, in a lineup that's already taken the first two of this series and is playing loose. Four hundred is a number I'll take on a hitter who's already done it against this club once this series.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

Hub research

189

park_weatherNYY @ CHC
Wind blowing in 22 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Twenty-two miles an hour in from left field at Wrigley is enough to kill anything hit in the air. The total sits at 6.5 tonight, and wind that strong tends to do the under's work on its own.
P final total 3 vs 6.5 (under lean)
starter_team_recordBOS @ LAD
Dodgers 1-7 in Emmet Sheehan's last 8 starts
1-7 looks damning until you check his actual stuff — the strikeout rate and WHIP are clean, so this record is telling you more about the lineup and a little bad luck than about Sheehan pitching badly.
starter_team_recordMIN @ SEA
Twins 7-1 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts
Same shape as a lot of these team-record-behind-a-pitcher stats — 7-1 says the Twins have found their rhythm on his turns, whether or not it's really about him specifically.
starter_team_recordPIT @ CIN
Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts
Seven wins in eight starts is as much about Cincinnati's lineup showing up as it is about Burns dealing — except he's also been lights out in the first inning himself this year, so this isn't just a record padded by run support.
head_to_headDET @ OAK
Tigers are 5-0 vs Athletics this season
5-0 with an 8-6 win the last time out — Detroit's simply had Oakland's number all year, and they're catching a starter tonight who's nowhere near his season-long form.
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 1st against Robert Stock (RHP)
Hicks has an .878 OPS against right-handers this year against .521 the other way, and he leads off tonight facing righty Robert Stock. The favorable half of his season lines up right at the top of the order.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
streakingCHW @ TB
TB games have gone UNDER 7 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 7 straight — just 3.6 runs a night against an average line of 6.9. Tonight's number sits at 7.5.
P final total 10 vs 7.5
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Max Scherzer (RHP)
Burleson against right-handers is a completely different hitter than Burleson against lefties: .942 OPS versus .505. Scherzer throws right-handed and Burleson bats third tonight, so the good version of him is the one in the box.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
cut_listARI tonight
Merrill Kelly
Starts tonight for ARI — 7.17 xERA behind a 4.86 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
platoon_edgeMIL @ LAA
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's platoon gap is enormous — .921 against righties, .588 against lefties — and Urena throws right-handed tonight. He's leading off right into the version of himself that actually hits.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Griffin Jax (RHP)
Antonacci splits hard by handedness, .851 against righties and .518 against lefties, and he's leading off tonight against right-hander Griffin Jax. That's the matchup working in his favor before anything else happens.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
heat_checkPHI @ BAL
Trea Turner: 1.099 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's been a different hitter for two weeks — a 1.099 OPS, nearly 400 points over his season mark. Sixteen homers on the year, and tonight's 1.5 total-bases line hasn't fully caught up to how hot he is.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkWSH @ ATL
CJ Abrams: 1.322 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams was already hitting .925 for the season. Over his last 15 days he's at 1.322, twenty-eight homers deep with a 1.5 total-bases number tonight for maybe the hottest bat on the whole slate.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueSF @ SD
19.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 19.7 innings over the last 3 games (German Marquez (5) and Randy Vasquez (4.7) the heaviest). SF's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-5
starter_team_recordDET @ OAK
Athletics 2-6 in Gage Jump's last 8 starts
Oakland's won just twice in his last eight starts, and they're already 0-5 on the year against the Tigers walking in. Not a lot working in their favor tonight.
heat_checkSF @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's last two weeks — a 1.042 OPS against a .673 season mark — is one of the bigger swings on the board tonight. The 4.5 total-bases number is a real ask, but he's playing like a guy who can clear it.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Moniak's .938 OPS against right-handers towers over the .595 he manages against lefties. Seth Lugo throws right-handed tonight, so the platoon matchup lines up clean.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_team_recordTEX @ HOU
Astros 6-2 in Peter Lambert's last 8 starts
6-2 is a nice number for Lambert, but Houston's been rolling regardless — five straight wins with real run differential behind it. Hard to separate how much of this is him versus just a team playing well right now.
cooling_offSTL @ TOR
Jordan Walker: .540 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer
Walker is scuffling, .540 OPS over his last 15 against an .835 season mark, and tonight he technically draws Scherzer on his tougher side. That tougher side is still an .811 OPS against right-handers over 316 at-bats, so this isn't a matchup that buries him.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
starter_team_recordPHI @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Kyle Bradish's last 8 starts
6-2 with three straight wins on his turn — that's a real trend for Baltimore lately, not just a hot week or two.
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper against right-handers is a .989 OPS; against lefties it drops to .621. Bradish throws right tonight and Harper hits third, so the dominant version of him is the one taking at-bats.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkTEX @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.275 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's last 15 days have produced a 1.275 OPS on top of an .889 season mark that was already strong. Twelve homers this year, and tonight's total-bases line sits at 1.5 for a hitter clearly seeing the ball well.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
head_to_headWSH @ ATL
Braves are 7-3 vs Nationals this season
7-3 in the series and Atlanta hung 8 on them the last time out — this matchup has been lopsided all year. The one thing complicating it for the Braves: Washington's sending out the best version of Cavalli they've seen in a month tonight.
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
CJ Abrams
Gary's Take Abrams is the best process-meets-form play on this board. He's been the hottest hitter in this lineup for two weeks running, eight homers in that stretch, and he's cleared this exact number in six of his last fifteen games.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordDET @ OAK
Tigers 6-2 in Keider Montero's last 8 starts
Tigers are 6-2 in Keider Montero's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
head_to_headMIA @ NYM
Marlins are 9-5 vs Mets this season
9-5 in the season series and Miami dropped 6 on them last time out — they've had success against this team all year. Tonight's more about the total though, given how these games have actually been playing lately.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Max Fried
Fried's week is already in the books — White Sox Monday, Cubs Saturday, both used. A 2.51 xERA is the best number on this list, which is exactly why there was never a start here worth skipping. Both starts already banked, nothing left to manage.
platoon_edgeMIA @ NYM
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Robert Stock (RHP), batting 2nd
Stowers carries an .864 OPS against righties compared to .515 against lefties, a split his blended season line doesn't show. He's batting second tonight against right-hander Robert Stock, right in his strong side.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
head_to_headTEX @ HOU
Astros are 8-4 vs Rangers this season
8-4 in the series with a one-run win the last time these two played — Houston's had this matchup's number more often than not, and Texas needs to find an answer somewhere tonight.
starter_team_recordMIL @ LAA
Brewers 6-2 in Jacob Misiorowski's last 8 starts
Milwaukee's 6-2 in his last eight starts and on a three-game winning streak with him on the mound, and they're walking into an Angels team that's lost five straight. The trends are stacked in the same direction here.
starter_team_recordSF @ SD
Giants 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts
Giants are 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgeCHW @ TB
Munetaka Murakami (bats L) hits 2nd against Griffin Jax (RHP)
Over 184 AB vs. Right, Munetaka Murakami owns a 1.028 OPS versus .708 in 82 AB the other way. He sees RHP Griffin Jax tonight hitting 2nd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
Bryan Reynolds: .558 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Chase Burns
Reynolds is sliding, .558 OPS over his last 15 compared to .832 for the season, and Chase Burns tonight is technically his weaker platoon side too — though .820 against right-handers for the year is still a solid number. This reads more like a cold streak than a bad matchup.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Tristan Peters: .254 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Griffin Jax
Peters has cratered over his last 15 days, a .254 OPS against a .741 season mark. Tonight's righty, Griffin Jax, is actually his better matchup at .786 for the year — a reasonable spot for him to come out of it.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offCHW @ TB
Jonathan Aranda: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay
Aranda is ice cold, .469 over his last 15 against an .806 season line, and tonight he faces a lefty in Anthony Kay, already his tougher side at .658 for the year. Two negatives stacked on each other here.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
streakingKC @ COL
COL games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Five straight unders at Coors is the more surprising trend on the board tonight, given the ballpark. Production's been running well under tonight's number of late, though Freeland's own first-inning struggles are the thing that could break the pattern early.
P final total 9 vs 12
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Zack Wheeler (RHP), batting 1st
Beavers hits right-handers much better than lefties, .725 OPS against .450, and he leads off tonight against right-hander Zack Wheeler. The split favors him even against a good pitcher.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 7/27
Zack Wheeler
Marlins is done, Orioles is what's left today. A 2.65 xERA on the season is the kind of number that makes the second start a non-decision. Must-start — ride him into today's finale.
heat_checkSF @ SD
Luis Rengifo: 1.062 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's OPS over his last 15 days sits more than 400 points above his season number. That 1.5 total-bases line looks light for how he's hitting the ball right now.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offMIA @ NYM
Otto Lopez: .512 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Robert Stock
Lopez has cooled off, .512 over his last 15 against an .836 season mark, and tonight's righty, Robert Stock, is technically his weaker side — though .805 against right-handers is still a fine number. This looks like a hitter working through a stretch, not a bad spot.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
streakingTEX @ HOU
HOU have won 5 straight
A five-game streak backed by an 18-run differential is a team playing well beyond just getting by. Texas is walking into this at the wrong time, bullpen already stretched from working nine arms over the last three days.
P team won 3-7
streakingNYY @ CHC
NYY games have gone UNDER 5 straight
These games have produced just 7.2 combined runs a night against a recent pace near 10.7, and tonight's total already sits at 6.5 — well below that old baseline. Some of this trend is already baked into the line.
P final total 3 vs 6.5
regression_watchSTL @ TOR
Max Scherzer: 9.49 ERA vs 6.16 xERA
That gap is mostly bad luck, not a mirage — his hard-contact numbers are ordinary. But a 1.82 WHIP and barely six strikeouts a game leaves no margin once runners get on, so even a better version of him tonight is still walking a tightrope.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
streakingWSH @ ATL
ATL have won 5 straight
Five in a row with a 12-run differential over that stretch is a team clicking on both sides, 7-1 across their last eight. Washington's best arm in a month is the first real test that streak has seen.
P team won 2-4
streakingMIL @ LAA
LAA have lost 5 straight
Five straight losses with an 11-run margin over that stretch, 3-6 across their last nine — a team scuffling on both sides of the ball. Facing one of the league's hotter arms tonight doesn't make it easier.
P team won 0-3
streakingMIA @ NYM
NYM games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Five straight unders with these games actually producing 5.4 runs a night against numbers that have averaged near 7.9 — and tonight's total still sits at 8.5. That's a wide gap between where the number is and how the games have gone.
P final total 2 vs 8.5
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Chase Burns (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe's .908 OPS against righties dwarfs his .606 against lefties. He's batting second tonight against right-hander Chase Burns, right in the strong half of a real platoon split.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueSF @ SD
San Diego Padres pen: 18 relief IP over their last 3 games
18 innings sounds heavy, but it's really two long starts from Márquez and Vásquez skewing the total — Matsui, Miller, and Morejon all only touched it once at light counts, so there's more fresh length here than the raw number suggests.
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson has three home runs in his last seven games, and he's been barreling balls at a rate that says this stretch is real, not a fluke. He's a left-handed hitter, and Washington's starter has been considerably more hittable against lefties than righties all season.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
platoon_edgeSTL @ TOR
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Lars Nootbaar's vs. Right line (.741 OPS, 123 AB) sits well above his .483 mark the other way (30 AB). Tonight's starter Max Scherzer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
heat_checkARI @ CLE
Steven Kwan: 1.001 OPS in Last 15 Days
Kwan's last two weeks have him at a 1.001 OPS, nearly 330 points above his .672 season mark. That's a big enough swing that tonight's 1.5 total-bases line is worth a second look.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
bullpen_fatigueDET @ OAK
Detroit Tigers pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Madden needed three innings and 56 pitches in one outing, and three other arms have already gone twice in three days — De Jesus and Anderson are really the only fresh length sitting behind the starter tonight.
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ Dodgers
Ceddanne Rafaela
Gary's Take He's gone deep in five of his last fifteen games, including a two-homer night just two days ago, and his own manager is calling him the biggest reason this team is rolling right now. That's not one hot swing, that's two weeks of squaring up mistakes.
P 1 HR — 2-for-5, 5 TB
head_to_headCHW @ TB
Rays are 4-1 vs White Sox this season
4-1 in the series, though Tampa Bay had to grind out a 1-0 win the last time these two played — not a blowout matchup even with the lopsided record. Chicago's tired bullpen is the bigger story walking into tonight.
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Rockies
Willi Castro
Gary's Take Castro's already gone deep six times in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last four alone, and it's not empty box-score noise — the contact underneath that stretch is loud, some of the hardest-hit balls anyone in this lineup has put in play recently. His manager said it flat out after the last one: his at-bats have been good from both sides of the plate and the homers keep coming.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkNYY @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .958 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hoerner is hitting .958 over his last 15 days against a .676 season mark, a real hot stretch. Tonight's total-bases line is set at just 0.5, a low bar for a guy seeing the ball this well.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
rest_fatigueCHW @ TB
CHW's bullpen has covered 16 innings over the last 3 games
That is 16 relief innings in 3 games, led by Noah Schultz (5) and Tyler Schweitzer (3). TB's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side won 9-1
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Braves
Luis Garcia Jr.
Gary's Take Garcia has been the best hitter on either roster over the last week — eleven hits in his last thirty at-bats — and the quality of contact behind that surge is legitimate, he's squaring the ball up as hard as anyone recently. He's a left-handed bat with a strong track record against right-handed pitching for his career, and today's Atlanta starter has specifically struggled with lefties.
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Payton Tolle
Like Fried, Tolle's whole week already happened — Athletics Monday, Dodgers Saturday. A 2.91 xERA is the number that earned him two starts nobody had to think twice about. Both starts already banked, nothing left to manage.
cooling_offNYY @ CHC
Ben Rice: .606 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Colin Rea
Rice has cooled from a huge season line, .606 over his last 15 against .925 overall, but he draws his good side tonight in righty Colin Rea, whom he's hit for a .993 OPS this year. A favorable matchup running into a slump.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkMIA @ NYM
Francisco Lindor: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lindor's last 15 days, a 1.042 OPS, sit well clear of his .753 season line. Nine homers on the year, and tonight's total-bases number is 1.5 for a hitter who's currently locked in.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Padres
Jackson Merrill
Gary's Take Merrill's turning contact into real thump right now — five home runs in his last fifty-four at-bats, exit velocity sitting around 93 and a half over that stretch, two barrels in his last twenty-one balls in play. That's bat speed, not a bloop streak.
P 1 HR — 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offKC @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .582 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo
McCarthy has dipped to .582 over his last 15 days, down from an .818 season mark, and tonight's righty, Seth Lugo, is technically his weaker side, though .787 against right-handers is still solid. This reads more like a hitter due for a correction than a tough matchup.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
heat_checkTEX @ HOU
Joc Pederson: 1.261 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pederson was already hitting .858 for the season, and he's on an even bigger run lately, a 1.261 OPS over his last 15 days. Twenty homers this year, with tonight's total-bases line down at 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani
Gary's Take Ohtani doesn't need a favorable matchup to run into one, and this year he's actually hit left-handed pitching better than most hitters ever manage against same-side arms, ten home runs worth of proof. He's hitting near .300 at home, he's been squaring balls up all week with exit velocities that jump off the page, and hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup only helps.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offPHI @ BAL
Brandon Marsh: .413 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Kyle Bradish
Marsh has gone cold, .413 over his last 15 against a .770 season mark, but tonight's matchup against righty Kyle Bradish is actually his stronger side — .817 for the year against right-handers. If he's due for a breakout, this is as good a spot as any.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
two_start_weekBoston Red Sox — week of 7/27
Jake Bennett
Bennett's Athletics turn from Tuesday is banked; the Dodgers today closes it out. A 3.07 xERA keeps him inside PLAN_AROUND for both starts, not just the one that's already over. Stay in for today's finale.
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Padres
Manny Machado
Gary's Take Machado's already got a track record against Roupp — four hits in ten career at-bats, one of them gone — and his current swing backs it up. Sixteen hits in his last fifty-six at-bats with four home runs mixed in, and the contact quality is the best anywhere on this board: three barrels in his last twenty-two balls in play, whiff rate down under a quarter of his swings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeARI @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 4th against Merrill Kelly (RHP)
Over 203 AB vs. Right, Travis Bazzana owns a .828 OPS versus .538 in 97 AB the other way. He sees RHP Merrill Kelly tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ TB
Chicago White Sox pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games
Richards has worked both of the last two days and Domínguez has gone twice in three — that's a bullpen with very little left to give if the starter doesn't work deep. Schweitzer, Newcomb, and Hudson are the ones who've actually had time to recover.
two_start_weekCincinnati Reds — week of 7/27
Chase Burns
Burns went Tuesday against the Guardians at home, and the Pirates today is the back half — also at home. A 3.19 xERA plus two home starts in one week is the whole case. Stay in — two home starts, both worth using.
heat_checkKC @ COL
Salvador Perez: .907 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perez is hitting .907 over his last 15 days, a big jump from his .638 season mark. Sixteen homers this year, and he walks into a hot night at Coors with a 1.5 total-bases line on the board.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Rockies
Salvador Perez
Gary's Take Perez has left the yard five times in his last fifteen games and the recent contact backs the surge up — barrels, not bloops. The lefty he's facing tonight has been a genuine problem against right-handed power all season, a .954 OPS allowed with the home runs piling up specifically against that side of the plate.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Orioles
Kyle Schwarber
Gary's Take Bradish throws his four-seamer less than anything else in his mix, and there's a reason for that — hitters are batting .301 against it, the softest number on his entire arsenal. Schwarber has built a career on exactly that mistake: .575 slugging against four-seamers, and against right-handers as a group he's sitting on 21 home runs in 239 at-bats this season, right around one every eleven trips.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Angels — week of 7/27
Walbert Ureña
Ureña's Astros start came Monday at home, and the Brewers today finishes it, also at home. A 3.26 xERA is the shakiest number in this PLAN_AROUND group, but it's still the group he's graded into. Stay in for today's finale.
rest_fatigueBOS @ LAD
14.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 14.7 innings over the last 3 games (Cole Irvin (6) and Tanner Scott (2) the heaviest). BOS's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-4
heat_checkPIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: 1.183 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 31 PA: a 1.183 OPS versus .739 for the season, 0.444 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatiguePIT @ CIN
PIT's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Hunter Barco (3) and Antwone Kelly (3) carried the load. CIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-10
rest_fatigueTEX @ HOU
TEX's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Marco Gonzales (3) and Peyton Gray (3) carried the load. HOU's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-7
streakingARI @ CLE
CLE have lost 4 straight
Cleveland's lost four straight and been outscored by 13 over that stretch, 2-5 in their last seven. That's a team underperforming right now, not just running into good pitching.
P team won 0-5
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 7/27
Gerrit Cole
Cole's White Sox start from Tuesday is done; the Cubs today is what's left, on the road. A 3.28 xERA is the lowest mark in this PLAN_AROUND tier, but the tier covers the whole week, both starts. Stay in for today's finale.
heat_checkCHW @ TB
Nick Fortes: 1.172 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 29 PA: a 1.172 OPS versus .699 for the season, 0.473 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueDET @ OAK
DET's pen has logged 14.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.3 innings out of the pen — Ty Madden (5) and Drew Sommers (3) carried the load. OAK's pen has thrown 13.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 11-0
gary_hr_threatsYankees @ Cubs
Ben Rice
Gary's Take Rea leans on his four-seamer more than anything else he throws, and it's the pitch that's given him the most trouble all year — hitters are hitting .314 against it and doing real damage, not just poking singles through. That's the pitch Rice sees more than any other, and it happens to be the one he punishes hardest himself, slugging well over .950 against four-seamers this season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 7/27
Keider Montero
Montero's Orioles start Monday came at home; today is the road trip to the Athletics. A 3.48 xERA and a STREAM_BOTH tag mean neither outing was ever a lock — a name you check before you trust, not one you pencil in blind. Streamer only — check today's matchup before trusting him again.
regression_watchARI @ CLE
Merrill Kelly: 4.86 ERA vs 7.17 xERA
This is one of the scarier gaps on the board — a 45% hard-hit rate, under six strikeouts a nine, and results running more than two runs better than the process deserves. He's also been lights out his last three starts, so it's a pitcher riding a heater the underlying numbers say shouldn't last.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
gary_hr_threatsTigers @ Athletics
Gleyber Torres
Gary's Take Torres has gone deep twice in his last week even while his average has cooled, which tells me the swing's still on time even when the results haven't all dropped in. He gets a real look from the right side tonight — right-handed hitters have out-slugged lefties against Jump this season, and he's already allowed five home runs to right-handed bats compared to two against lefties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-2, 1 TB, 4 BB
park_weatherMIA @ NYM
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Citi Field tonight
Tonight's reading at Citi Field — Partly Cloudy, 82°, wind 13 mph, Out To LF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 6.5.
P final total 2 vs 6.5 (over lean)
cooling_offARI @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Merrill Kelly
Brayan Rocchio's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (61 PA) trails his .709 season mark, down 0.224. Tonight he draws RHP Merrill Kelly — his stronger side: a .732 OPS vs RHP across 263 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formARI @ CLE
Merrill Kelly: 1.72 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three earned runs and a dozen strikeouts across his last three starts is as good a stretch as he's had all year, whatever the season-long numbers say about it. Cleveland's the real test of whether it's earned or borrowed time.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
gary_hr_threatsDiamondbacks @ Guardians
Kyle Manzardo
Gary's Take Manzardo's carrying two home runs and an OPS over 1.200 through his last week, and the contact backs it up — three barreled balls in his last ten balls in play, a real jump in the quality of contact he's making. He's a left-handed bat facing a right-hander with a specific problem with lefty power — Kelly's given up a home run to a left-handed hitter at a rate of roughly one every seventeen at-bats this season, notably higher than what he allows to righties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offPHI @ BAL
Taylor Ward: .532 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Zack Wheeler
Taylor Ward's .532 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .729 season mark, down 0.197. Tonight he draws RHP Zack Wheeler — his weaker side: a .692 OPS vs RHP across 301 AB.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ CIN
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Barco needed 72 pitches to get three innings, and Soto and Montgomery have both already gone twice in three days — Murdock is really the only fresh arm sitting there if Pittsburgh needs length. Against a Reds team that's 7-1 when Burns takes the mound, that's not the pen you want to lean on.
bullpen_fatigueMIL @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Only Yates has pitched more than once in the last three days — Kerry's the one who went long, four innings and 55 pitches, and probably needs the night off, but the rest of that pen is sitting on a single light outing. There's real rest in that bullpen even if the record doesn't show it.
park_weatherKC @ COL
100° at Coors Field — the ball will carry tonight
A hundred degrees at Coors is about as much carry as the ball gets all year. The total is already up at 11.5, and the heat isn't going to be what brings the scoring down.
P final total 9 vs 11.5 (over lean)
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Travis Bazzana
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.13 xERA) — .734 OPS, bats 4th.
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Jose Ramirez
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.13 xERA) — .723 OPS, bats 2nd.
ballpark_shiftNYY @ CHC
Colin Rea owns a 3.33 ERA at Wrigley Field — 5.93 everywhere else
A two-and-a-half-run gap between his home and road ERA over a real sample, 10 games worth at Wrigley, isn't noise. Hitters batting 55 points lower there too — home field matters more for him than for most.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
rest_fatigueMIL @ LAA
LAA's pen has logged 12.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.7 innings out of the pen — Jose Fermin (3.3) and Brent Suter (2.3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-3
fantasy_pickupsARI @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio
Pickup vs Merrill Kelly (7.13 xERA) — .709 OPS, bats 6th.
regression_tomorrowSTL @ NYY
Michael McGreevy: 3.57 ERA vs 5.66 xERA
A 3.57 ERA looks sharp, but a 5.66 expected ERA underneath it tells a different story — a 42.6% hard-hit rate and a .252 average allowed against contact that should be giving up .290 is a real gap. Facing the Yankees, I'd treat that shiny ERA with some skepticism.
cooling_offSTL @ TOR
Ivan Herrera: .596 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer
Ivan Herrera's .596 OPS over the last 15 days (60 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.144. Tonight he draws RHP Max Scherzer — his weaker side: a .709 OPS vs RHP across 292 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ BAL
Pete Alonso (bats R) draws Zack Wheeler (RHP), batting 2nd
Pete Alonso carries a .855 OPS vs. Right (290 AB) against .707 the other way (127 AB), and faces RHP Zack Wheeler from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
regression_watchKC @ COL
Kyle Freeland: 7.34 ERA vs 5.63 xERA
Part of this is bad luck — the average allowed is running ahead of what the contact quality predicts — but a 43.7% hard-hit rate says hitters are legitimately squaring him up too. Some correction back toward the mid-5s is fair, just not a clean bounce-back to sharp.
P 9 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
cooling_offPIT @ CIN
JJ Bleday: .590 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mitch Keller
JJ Bleday's .590 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .803 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws RHP Mitch Keller — his stronger side: a .830 OPS vs RHP across 215 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
cut_listCHC tonight
Colin Rea
Starts tonight for CHC — 5.52 xERA behind a 4.67 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
cut_listTOR tonight
Max Scherzer
Starts tonight for TOR — 6.16 xERA behind a 9.49 ERA.
regression_watchKC @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .227 xBA
Moniak is hitting .278 against a .227 expected average across 273 plate appearances, and his wOBA is running well ahead of his xwOBA too. The results have outpaced the contact quality by a wide margin this year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsSTL @ TOR
Alec Burleson
Pickup vs Max Scherzer (6.12 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 3rd.
heat_checkCHW @ TB
Chandler Simpson: .857 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (46 PA) he is at a .857 OPS, up 0.183 on his .674 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-3, 3 TB
cut_listKC tonight
Seth Lugo
Starts tonight for KC — 5.38 xERA behind a 4.22 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
cooling_offARI @ CLE
Tim Tawa: .413 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gavin Williams
Tim Tawa's .413 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .624 season mark, down 0.211. Tonight he draws RHP Gavin Williams — his stronger side: a .688 OPS vs RHP across 99 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
closer_watchNYY @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Daniel Palencia
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Daniel Palencia 3. The role is live.
closer_watchKC @ COL
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
closer_watchMIL @ LAA
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 3 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
rest_fatiguePHI @ BAL
BAL's bullpen has covered 12 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12 relief innings in 3 games, led by Tyler Wells (3) and Yennier Cano (2). PHI's pen has thrown 6.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 8-0
bullpen_fatigueTEX @ HOU
Texas Rangers pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nine different relievers over three games is a bullpen scrambling, not managing comfortably. Gray's already back for a second look, and the two who logged real innings needed heavy pitch counts to get through them — not a lot of good options left if this one goes long.
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/2
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/2 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/2
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/2 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Jake Mangum: .306 AVG vs .258 xBA
Mangum's .306 average sits well above his .258 expected mark over 314 plate appearances, and his wOBA tells the same story against his xwOBA. He's gotten more out of his contact than the underlying numbers say he should.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_tomorrowTOR @ HOU
Shane Bieber: 5.75 ERA vs 7.54 xERA
A 5.75 ERA is already ugly, and a 7.54 expected ERA says the actual pitching has been worse than even that — a 45.5% hard-hit rate is one of the higher marks on the board. Facing Houston tomorrow, the ugly ERA isn't the misleading part; if anything it's flattering him.
regression_watchPIT @ CIN
Esmerlyn Valdez: .268 AVG vs .222 xBA
Valdez is hitting .268 against a .222 expected average, and the wOBA-to-xwOBA gap runs the same direction. Across 168 plate appearances, the results have stayed ahead of the process all season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchDET @ OAK
Donovan Walton: .298 AVG vs .254 xBA
Walton's hitting .298 against a .254 expected average, production running ahead of what the underlying contact says it should be. It's a smaller sample at 130 plate appearances, so I wouldn't read too much into it yet.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftKC @ COL
Kyle Freeland owns a 6.33 ERA at Coors Field — 8.29 everywhere else
Coors is actually the more forgiving park for him, which says plenty about how bad the road version has been — 8.29 elsewhere is ugly. Even the 'good' version of him this year still has hitters batting .303 at home.
P 9 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
regression_watchKC @ COL
TJ Rumfield: .297 AVG vs .254 xBA
Rumfield's .297 average is well clear of his .254 expected mark across 437 plate appearances, a big enough sample that it's not noise. His wOBA outpacing his xwOBA says the same thing a different way.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgePIT @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Tyler Stephenson's vs. Right line (.766 OPS, 209 AB) sits well above his .622 mark the other way (53 AB). Tonight's starter Mitch Keller throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
regression_tomorrowTOR @ HOU
Cristian Javier: 7.17 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
Javier's 7.17 ERA is bad even against his own 5.59 expected mark, and the underlying numbers — a 39.7% hard-hit rate, 11.1% barrel rate — say a lot of this is deserved, not misfortune. Some of the gap should close facing Toronto tomorrow, but I wouldn't expect a clean outing.
heat_checkARI @ CLE
Petey Halpin: .723 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (44 PA) he is at a .723 OPS, up 0.165 on his .558 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
regression_watchSTL @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .292 AVG vs .252 xBA
Clement is hitting .292 against a .252 expected average over 438 plate appearances, with wOBA running ahead of xwOBA to match. That's a full season of outperforming his contact quality, not a short hot streak.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formKC @ COL
Seth Lugo: 2.37 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 1.00 WHIP and ten strikeouts across his last three says this stretch is legit, not just scattered results — and unlike a lot of hot streaks, his actual contact numbers back it up too. Lines are still pricing him off the 4.22 season number.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.597 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 2-hole.
regression_watchSF @ SD
Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Low hard-hit rate, low barrel rate, strong strikeout numbers — this isn't a pitcher living on luck, the process actually backs up the results. San Francisco's catching a genuinely effective version of him tonight, not a correction waiting to happen.
regression_watchKC @ COL
Seth Lugo: 4.22 ERA vs 5.38 xERA
Most ERA-beats-expected gaps come from balls finding holes that shouldn't — his actual average allowed is almost identical to what's expected, so that's not what's happening here. The hard contact against him is real, but a 7 K/9 keeps it from snowballing, which is a more sustainable formula than the raw gap makes it look.
P 5 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
starter_formDET @ OAK
Gage Jump: 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts
A 1.74 WHIP over his last three starts means a lot of traffic, and 5.65 is the real version of him lately, not the 4.00 his season line still shows. Detroit's already had his number this year too.
P 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
ownedSF @ SD
Manny Machado vs Landen Roupp: .400
Machado is 4-for-10 with a walk against Roupp for his career, good for a 1.155 OPS, and he's hot on top of it at .897 over his last 15 days. Favorable history walking into a favorable stretch.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ownedCHW @ TB
Andrew Benintendi vs Griffin Jax: .385
Benintendi's 5-for-13 with a homer off Jax for his career, and he's not walking in cold either — a .744 OPS over his last 15 games. History and current form are lined up in the same direction tonight.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
regression_watchBOS @ LAD
Emmet Sheehan: 4.95 ERA vs 3.77 xERA
Double-digit strikeouts per nine and a tidy WHIP with only ordinary hard-contact numbers against him — the 4.95 is the outlier here, not the process behind it. Boston's catching a pitcher better than his own team's 1-7 record behind him suggests.
P 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
starter_formMIL @ LAA
Walbert Urena: 1.13 ERA over his last 3 starts
Two earned runs and 13 strikeouts across his last three starts is a step up even from his strong 2.70 season number. Not an easy pitcher to be facing in the middle of a five-game skid.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
starter_formWSH @ ATL
Cade Cavalli: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Four earned runs across his last 18 innings is a real jump from the 3.55 he's carried all season. Whatever's clicked for him, he's picked a tough time to be at his best — right into a team that's won five straight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
cut_listSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 1th for SD — 0.629 OPS, 0.236 AVG from the 1-hole.
starter_formPIT @ CIN
Mitch Keller: 3.38 ERA over his last 3 starts
Thirteen strikeouts and a 3.38 ERA over his last three is a solid little run, a run and a half better than his season number. He'll need it — Cincinnati's 7-1 this year on the nights Burns takes the ball, and Burns has been nails early too.
P 2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
regression_tomorrowWSH @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.61 ERA vs 4.34 xERA
Nola's 5.61 ERA sits above his 4.34 expected mark, and a .279 average allowed against a .249 his contact quality supports explains a good chunk of that. The hard-hit numbers aren't extreme, so I'd treat him as closer to a low-4 ERA pitcher than the mid-5 he's currently running, facing Washington tomorrow.
heat_checkPHI @ BAL
Jackson Holliday: .883 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 40 PA: a .883 OPS versus .751 for the season, 0.132 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
starter_formPHI @ BAL
Zack Wheeler: 3.94 ERA over his last 3 starts
Wheeler's last three starts carry a 3.94 ERA, well off his outstanding 2.53 season mark, though the WHIP has stayed tight at 1.00. Still getting outs even in a rougher patch, worth knowing before assuming the shiny season number is what shows up tonight.
P 2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
closer_watchPHI @ BAL
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
closer_watchWSH @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 23 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
closer_watchSTL @ TOR
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
closer_watchARI @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.638 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 4-hole.
cut_listSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Still hitting 6th for SEA — 0.569 OPS, 0.162 AVG from the 6-hole.
regression_tomorrowSD @ ARI
Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
King's 3.38 ERA is legitimate — the hard-hit and barrel numbers back up real quality — but a .215 average allowed against .245 deserved shows some of the shine is better luck rather than pure dominance. Still a good outing to expect against Arizona tomorrow, just maybe not as untouchable as the ERA alone suggests.
ballpark_shiftARI @ CLE
Gavin Williams's ERA drops to 3.09 at Progressive Field
A run and a quarter better at home over 11 starts worth of sample, and hitters batting 21 points lower off him there — that's real enough to matter. He's also catching Kelly on a heater, so this could turn into a legitimate pitcher's duel.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
cut_listPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.644 OPS, 0.223 AVG from the 4-hole.
running_gameSF @ SD
Green light: San Diego Padres run, and Drew Cavanaugh has caught just 14%
Drew Cavanaugh is catching tonight at 14% on the season (3-for-22 throwing), and San Diego Padres attempt 1.3 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P San Diego Padres stole 2 bases
running_gameMIL @ LAA
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Tyler Heineman (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee runs, 1.3 attempts a game, and Heineman's caught just 33% of runners this year. That's about as clear a green light as you'll find — I'd expect them to test him early.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
first_inningMIA @ NYM
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ NYM
Both sides have been quiet early, three first-inning runs apiece across their last ten games, and Alcantara's held hitters to .278 in first innings this year. The number sitting basically at a coinflip feels about right for two offenses that take a while to get going.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
running_gameWSH @ ATL
Green light: Washington Nationals run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Baldwin's caught just 6 of 39 runners this year, and Washington already tries it 1.3 times a game. If the Nats get on, they're running.
P Washington Nationals stole 2 bases
fantasy_pickupsTEX @ HOU
Peter Lambert
Streamer vs TEX — 3.43 xERA · 8.7 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP.
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
regression_watchMIA @ NYM
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
A .333 win rate in one-run games is more variance than a real read on this team — records like that rarely hold at either extreme. If the Mets are being priced off how those close ones broke, there might be more to them than the record shows.
cut_listNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Still hitting 3th for NYM — 0.666 OPS, 0.256 AVG from the 3-hole.
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Ian Seymour: 4.37 ERA vs 3.36 xERA
Seymour's ERA sits a run above his xERA, but nothing underneath it — not the average against, not the hard-contact or barrel numbers — backs up runs that severe. Reads more like bad timing than bad stuff. Tomorrow's start at Colorado should land closer to that 3.36 than the 4.37.
cut_listCLE tonight
Steven Kwan
Still hitting 1th for CLE — 0.672 OPS, 0.256 AVG from the 1-hole.
running_gameMIN @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 12%
Seattle's run all year — 82 steals on the season — and Minnesota's throwing a catcher who's caught just 5 of 41 attempts. That's not a close call; I'd expect the Mariners testing Jeffers early and often tonight.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
regression_watchPHI @ BAL
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
The flip side of the coin — a .655 win rate in one-run games is just as unsustainable as a bad one, it just feels better while it lasts. Philadelphia's overall record is probably flattering them some, and Baltimore catches them on the road tonight.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ LAD
Jake Bennett
Streamer vs LAD — 3.07 xERA · 6.3 K/9 · 0.97 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Michael Lorenzen: 6.54 ERA vs 5.63 xERA
Lorenzen's the one I'd actually stay off in this group — a 46.2% hard-hit rate, the worst mark here, and an expected ERA of 5.63 that's already ugly before the extra bad luck bumps his actual mark to 6.54. Even giving him back the .331-vs-.294 gap on balls in play, he's still a mid-5s pitcher getting hit hard on the regular. Nothing about facing Tampa Bay tomorrow says this turns around.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/7
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
regression_tomorrowLAD @ CHC
Matthew Boyd: 3.41 ERA vs 4.31 xERA
Boyd's been a little better than his peripherals — nine tenths of a run of cushion — but the .240 he's allowed against a .253 expected mark is a small gap, and his contact numbers are middle-of-the-pack. This isn't a pitcher living on fumes, just one running slightly hot. Against the Dodgers tomorrow I'd bump my runs expectation up a touch from what the ERA shows, not overhaul it.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ SD
Landen Roupp
Streamer vs SD — 3.48 xERA · 9 K/9 · 1.26 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowSTL @ NYY
Cam Schlittler: 2.04 ERA vs 2.89 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 2.04 ERA against a 2.89 expected ERA (0.85 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .196 vs .212 expected.
fantasy_pickupsSF @ SD
Kyle Hart
Streamer vs SF — 3.51 xERA · 8 K/9 · 1.11 WHIP.
running_gameKC @ COL
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Brett Sullivan has caught just 16%
Sullivan's caught just 6 of 38 this season, and Kansas City's running at a 0.8-steals-a-game pace — 87 already this year. Anybody who reaches tonight should be moving.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
running_gamePIT @ CIN
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 16%
Rodriguez has thrown out just 5 of 32 basestealers, and Cincinnati already runs — 0.7 stolen bases a game, 81 on the year. That's about as green as a light gets.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 0 bases
cut_listSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 5th for STL — 0.645 OPS, 0.243 AVG from the 5-hole.
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
The Dodgers' pen is as fresh as it gets — 12 and two-thirds innings across the last three games, with every reliever making just one appearance in that stretch. The one arm to watch is Cole Irvin, whose outing was six innings on 102 pitches, a starter's workload, so he's the one who needs time even though it was a single appearance. Díaz, Scott, Klein, Vesia and Dreyer were all in and out on light counts, so outside of Irvin, this pen is fully loaded against Boston tonight.
fantasy_pickupsDET @ OAK
Keider Montero
Streamer vs OAK — 3.48 xERA · 6.4 K/9 · 1.02 WHIP.
cut_listTB tonight
Chandler Simpson
Still hitting 5th for TB — 0.674 OPS, 0.290 AVG from the 5-hole.
first_inningPIT @ CIN
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Burns has been about as tough as it gets in the first inning this year, a .159 average against, and Pittsburgh's lineup has scored in the first just once in their last ten games. Keller's been sharp early too, so this might not open with much action at all.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningKC @ COL
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Kansas City's been ice cold in the first inning lately, but neither starter tonight has actually protected the first well this season — Freeland's sitting on a 9.47 ERA in first innings, Lugo not far behind at 5.73. That's a cold lineup running into two pitchers who've both leaked runs early.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningCHW @ TB
TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Just one first-inning run in ten games for Tampa Bay, and neither starter tonight profiles as an easy out early — Jax has held hitters to .217 in the first, Kay a bit more hittable at .269 but still solid. Early scoring looks like the long shot here.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
cut_listARI tonight
Max Kepler
Still hitting 5th for ARI — 0.680 OPS, 0.238 AVG from the 5-hole.
first_inningWSH @ ATL
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
One first-inning run in their last ten games is about as cold a start as a lineup gets, and it lines up against a pitcher who's been almost as stingy early — a 1.96 ERA and .235 average against in the first inning this year. Early runs feel like a stretch in this one.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningNYY @ CHC
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Cole and Rea have both been excellent in the first inning this year, and the Yankees have scored in the first just once in their last ten games. Slow starts on both sides feels like the way to read the opening frame.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Diamondbacks ML +144
MLB · 0-5
L
Twins ML +122
MLB · 6-7
L
Nationals ML +101
MLB · 2-4
W
Astros ML -142
MLB · 3-7
W
Red Sox ML +153
MLB · 8-4
W
Cardinals ML +113
MLB · 5-1
L
Tampa Bay Rays ML -150
MLB · 9-1
W
Marlins ML -120
MLB · 2-0
L
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +120
MLB · 2-10
W
Angels +1.5 +113
MLB · 0-3
W
Phillies ML -145
MLB · 8-0
W
Padres ML -131
MLB · 4-5
W
Detroit Tigers ML -126
MLB · 11-0
L
Cubs ML +106
MLB · 2-1
L
Royals ML +106
MLB · 1-8

Props

L
Alec Bohm · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Alec Burleson · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
L
Anthony Kay · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 0
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 1
W
Cade Cavalli · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 18
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Colin Rea · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 3
L
Dominic Canzone · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Francisco Lindor · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 2
W
Freddie Freeman · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 1
L
Gage Jump · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 5
W
Gavin Williams · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 10
L
George Kirby · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 5
W
George Springer · over
Cardinals @ Blue Jays · Actual 3
L
Gerrit Cole · over
Yankees @ Cubs · Actual 5
L
Gleyber Torres · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 0
W
Hao-Yu Lee · over
Tigers @ Athletics · Actual 2
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Jacob Misiorowski · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 10
L
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Angels · Actual 1
W
Jake Bennett · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 17
W
Jeremy Pena · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Kody Clemens · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Kyle Freeland · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Kyle Manzardo · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Liam Hicks · over
Marlins @ Mets · Actual 1
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Manny Machado · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Rays · Actual 2
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Pete Alonso · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Peter Lambert · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 17
L
Randy Arozarena · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Ryan Jeffers · over
Twins @ Mariners · Actual 1
W
Sal Stewart · over
Pirates @ Reds · Actual 1
L
Salvador Perez · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Seth Lugo · over
Royals @ Rockies · Actual 5
L
Steven Kwan · over
Diamondbacks @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Ty France · over
Giants @ Padres · Actual 4
L
Willson Contreras · over
Red Sox @ Dodgers · Actual 0
W
Yordan Alvarez · over
Rangers @ Astros · Actual 7
L
Zack Wheeler · over
Phillies @ Orioles · Actual 3