Twins at Mariners
O/U 7.5 · RL Mariners -1.5
Twins ML+122
CONF 62%
LLostFinal 6-7
The read
Sunday afternoon game in Seattle, and these two have split the first two, so somebody wins the series today. The guy Seattle is pitching has spent the whole weekend reading his own name in trade rumors, and he's still taking the ball two days before the deadline. When I checked this morning, Seattle was a modest favorite. Now the price on them has jumped. Somebody woke up and decided they liked the home team more than they did at dawn. I don't.
Taj Bradley is simply the better pitcher right now, and it hasn't been close for about six weeks. He's barely given up runs, he's piling up strikeouts, and he's gone at least five innings every single start, so his bullpen doesn't get burned. More important than the raw numbers is how he gets outs: his cutter makes hitters swing through it constantly, and his splitter drags guys into chasing pitches they have no business swinging at. Seattle's lineup happens to be full of chasers. Their catcher is hitting terribly and whiffing on a huge share of his swings, Naylor is chasing almost half of everything, and their young infielder has been lost for two weeks. Seattle barely scores four runs a game when things are going well, and they've been under that lately. Bradley's two best pitches aim right at the soft spot in that lineup.
Kirby is the one with the problems today. He barely throws his sinker, hitters neither chase it nor miss it, and they've been hammering it — and his curveball has been hit even harder. His last outing in Texas lasted four innings and included four home runs. Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers hits second, he's the hottest bat on the team, and he punishes sinkers — that's the matchup I'm buying. The fair worry is Minnesota's bullpen, since everyone in it pitched yesterday, but Bradley has been going deep into games and Kremer just got activated this morning with a totally rested arm. Two weak offenses in a ballpark that suppresses scoring means this gets decided late and tight, and I'd rather have the underdog price when it does. Twins, at a number Seattle hasn't earned.
The full analysis
Sunday matinee at T-Mobile, rubber game of three, and the guy on the mound for Seattle has spent the whole weekend hearing his own name read aloud in trade columns. Kirby takes the ball anyway, forty-eight hours from the deadline. This morning the board had the Mariners at -134. It's -147 now. Somebody likes the home side more than they did at five in the morning. I don't.
Taj Bradley is the better arm in this game right now and it isn't especially close over the last six weeks — thirty-seven innings, twelve earned, forty-eight strikeouts across his last six starts, and he's handed his bullpen at least five innings every single time out. What matters more than the line is the shape of it. His cutter misses bats on four of every ten swings and his splitter drags hitters out of the zone at a rate that borders on unfair, and he's walking into a lineup built to chase. Cal Raleigh is hitting .162 and swinging through better than four of every ten pitches. Josh Naylor is chasing at nearly half. Colt Emerson hasn't found much of anything in two weeks. Seattle scores four a game in a good month and they've scored three and a half over the last ten. Bradley's two best pitches go straight at the hole in that lineup.
Kirby's the one carrying the leaks today. He throws a sinker one pitch in five, hitters neither chase it nor miss it, and they've hit .320 off it; the curveball has been hit at .436. Last time out in Texas he got four innings and surrendered four home runs. Ryan Jeffers hits second for Minnesota with the hottest bat on the roster and slugs .885 against sinkers — that's the at-bat I'm buying. The honest objection is the Minnesota bullpen, because every arm in it worked yesterday, but Bradley's been going six-plus and Dean Kremer was activated this morning with a completely fresh arm. Two thin offenses in a park that eats runs gets decided late and close, and I'd rather be holding the plus number when it does. Twins, at a price the Mariners haven't earned.
Props on this game
5Ryan JeffersOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-172
Not yet graded
Jeffers has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games — that's about as locked-in as a hitter gets right now. He's mashing the sinker this season, over .450 with an .885 slugging mark against it, and Kirby throws his own sinker better than one in every five pitches at 97 miles an hour. Kirby's stuff has been erratic start to start, and Jeffers is seeing the ball well against exactly the pitch he'll get a steady diet of tonight. The price is short because a hitter running this hot deserves to be favored, and I'll lay it.
George KirbyOVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed+125
LActual 5
Kirby's results have been better than his contact quality all year — hitters are running a .331 mark against him — and he's allowed at least six hits in five of his last six starts, including a four-homer meltdown his last time out against Texas. Minnesota's lineup is rolling, seven wins in their last ten with several bats running hot underneath the top of the order, and they get him at home in the finale of this set. Plus money on a number he's cleared almost every time out is value I want.
Randy ArozarenaOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+900
LActual 0
He's not just hot, he's been the whole story of this series. Three home runs in his last seven games, and the most recent one walked off this exact series against this exact team less than twenty-four hours ago. That's not empty contact — his exit velocity has been sitting around 93 over that stretch, three barrels in his last 21 balls in play, both his chase and whiff numbers over that window are low.
He's getting pitches to hit and squaring them up rather than reaching for them. He's also a right-handed bat with a real track record against right-handed pitching this season, and Taj Bradley is a pitcher whose fastball and curveball have both gotten hit hard all year even with a tidy ERA attached to his name — the strikeouts are real, but so is the loud contact when hitters connect. The one thing working against this: Bradley's given up his home runs to lefties at a much higher rate than to righties, so the platoon angle isn't doing me any favors here.
I'm taking it anyway. The week Arozarena is having and the quality of contact behind it are enough to want a piece of this at plus-900.
Dominic CanzoneOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+800
LActual 0
Canzone's damage profile lines up with what Bradley throws most. He's slugging well over .600 against four-seam fastballs this season, and that's the pitch Bradley leans on more than anything else, just under half his total mix, and it's also the pitch that's given him the most trouble of anything in his regular mix.
Canzone's been the hottest bat on this roster the last week, three home runs in his last seven games, and this is a day game, which happens to be exactly when he does his best hitting — his OPS in day games this year is close to a thousand, way up from his night numbers. The one thing that gives me pause is how often he chases, and Bradley's two best pitches, the cutter and the splitter, are both built to get exactly that kind of swing.
If Bradley pitches him away with those all day, this one's quiet. But Bradley has to come with the fastball too, and when Canzone gets it, he doesn't miss it.
Kody ClemensOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+600
LActual 0
Kirby's last start he gave up four home runs in four innings, and that's not a one-off stapled onto an otherwise clean season — he's allowed seven homers across his last six starts total, and the underlying numbers back it up, hitters are running a .331 wOBA against him this year with a 42 percent hard-hit rate. Clemens has three home runs in his last fifteen games and has real pop against right-handed pitching this season, fourteen homers worth in that split. Working against it: his track record against Kirby personally is thin and not pretty, one hit in seven career at-bats with a couple of strikeouts mixed in, and he's a clearly better hitter at night than during the day, which is what this is. But the pitcher is more of the story tonight than the hitter, and Clemens has enough in that bat to take advantage if Kirby's recent stretch is who he actually is right now.
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