Daily archive

2026-08-03

The stored Gary board for Mon, Aug 3. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB7:05 PM

Cardinals @ Yankees

**Gary's Take — fan version** The Yankees open a long stretch of home games tonight against the Cardinals, and the timing couldn't be better. My guys just grinded out a rough week in Chicago where the bats were asleep and the pitching carried them, and now they hand the ball to Cam Schlittler — the best pitcher they've got right now — against a St. Louis team that's been losing constantly and just spent the trade deadline giving away players instead of adding them. This is the biggest pitching mismatch of the night, and it isn't close. Schlittler has been dominant all year — nobody's hitting him, he's blowing hitters away with a fastball that's nearly untouchable — and he's facing a Cardinals lineup that can barely score right now, with their best hitters in a deep freeze. On the other side, Michael McGreevy throws a fastball that gets crushed, he's fooling fewer and fewer hitters lately, and his last time out he got knocked out of the game almost immediately. Now he has to face a Yankees lineup built to punish him at Yankee Stadium, where that short right-field fence eats up soft pitching — including new arrival Luis Garcia Jr., who's been red hot since coming over from Washington, and Spencer Jones, who's been crushing everything in sight lately. I'll be honest about the worry: the Yankees' offense has been sputtering, Judge and Bellinger are still out, and Schlittler hasn't been quite as unhittable at home. That's why I'm not going all-in on them just to win. But those quiet nights came against good pitchers, and tonight is the easiest arm they've seen in weeks. And if McGreevy gets knocked out early again, the Cardinals bullpen is in real trouble — their best relievers are either traded away or worn out, and the backups just got roughed up. So I'm asking the Yankees to do a little more than just win: I want them to win comfortably, by a couple of runs. Yankees to win by more than one.

Yankees -1.5-106

CONF

60%

MLB6:40 PM

Nationals @ Phillies

It's trade deadline day in Philly, and the two teams went opposite directions. The Phillies added pieces because they still think they're chasing Atlanta. The Nationals sold off a starter this morning while riding a five-game losing streak. That looks like a mismatch — but the betting market is asking you to pay a steep price on Aaron Nola, and that's where I get off. Nola at home has been a mess this year — way worse than he is on the road — and the Phillies have lost his last six starts. Lefty hitters absolutely crush him, and Washington stacked its lineup tonight with lefties and switch hitters. Their two best young bats, James Wood and CJ Abrams, destroy right-handed pitching, and they hammer exactly the pitches Nola leans on — hitters barely miss when they swing at his fastball and sinker. Warm night, small ballpark, wind blowing out, and a pitcher giving up some of the hardest contact of his career. That's a scary mix. The honest risk is Washington's own starter — a young call-up lefty who rarely gets deep into games, with a patchwork bullpen behind him. But that bullpen is fully rested, and they've got a long reliever stretched out to eat innings. Meanwhile the Phillies' lineup thins out fast against a lefty, with the bottom of their order ice cold for two weeks. A home team that's been losing lately, priced like a heavy favorite behind its shakiest starter, against a road team that actually plays better away from home — the smart money has already been pounding Washington all morning, and the price keeps shrinking. I'm grabbing what's left of it before it's gone. Give me the Nationals to win the game.

Nationals ML+133

CONF

62%

MLB7:40 PM

Pirates @ Brewers

**Gary's Take** It's the last day teams can make trades, and Milwaukee spent it getting stronger — two new pitchers walked in the door just as the Brewers, the best team in their league, start a long stretch of home games under a closed roof. The team visiting them is a weird kind of underdog: Pittsburgh has somehow beaten Milwaukee five out of six times this year, and honestly, that history is the only thing keeping this game as close as it looks — because almost nothing about how the Pirates have played the last two weeks backs it up. Here's the matchup tonight. Pittsburgh's starter, Bubba Chandler, throws extremely hard and eats right-handed hitters alive — but Milwaukee is loading their lineup with lefties, and lefties are exactly who hurts him. He's given up a bunch of home runs to them, and they hit him hard all year. He also doesn't pitch deep into games and walks a lot of guys, so once he's out, the middle of the game falls to a Pittsburgh bullpen that's exhausted after covering a super-short start from their other pitcher on Sunday. Their two new relievers help lock down the very end of games — but the game will be decided before then. On Milwaukee's side, their starter Brandon Sproat isn't a star, but look who he's facing: Pittsburgh is missing their two best bats, their veteran star is in a brutal slump, and their young fill-in swings and misses constantly. This Pirates offense has barely scored on this road trip while getting pounded on defense, and Milwaukee's two best relievers are fresh and ready after a day off. That five-wins-in-six history is the trap here, and I took it seriously — I looked at it twice. But most of those wins came from a different Pirates team. Their best player was in the lineup for the early ones, and the summer wins came before an injury gutted this batting order. Tonight's version is the weakest lineup Pittsburgh has run out all year — on the road, with no rest, against the best home team in the league and a locked-down late bullpen. The betting line has been moving toward Milwaukee all day, and I'm not going to fight it. Give me the Brewers.

Brewers ML-156

CONF

60%

MLB8:00 PM

Giants @ Rangers

**Gary's Take** It's trade deadline day in Texas, and these two teams could not be in more different places. The Rangers come home after losing five in a row, including getting swept in Houston, but they're still right in the thick of their division race. The Giants show up just hours after their front office basically gave up on the season — they traded away a couple of their better hitters and gutted the back of their bullpen. The San Francisco team playing tonight is not the same team from a week ago. Now, the Giants are starting Logan Webb, and he's easily the best pitcher in this game. That's the whole argument for taking San Francisco, and it's a legitimate one — he's owned the Rangers his whole career, and the bottom of the Texas lineup has been giving away easy outs for weeks. But look at everything around him: a lineup that's mostly minor-league fill-ins around a couple of real bats, a defense that keeps kicking the ball around behind a pitcher who lives on ground balls, and a bullpen that just lost its closer in a trade after being run into the ground all weekend. The Giants have played three straight tight road games and lost every one the same way — stay close, hand the game to the bullpen, and watch it fall apart late. Texas isn't perfect either. The bats have gone cold, and their starter Cal Quantrill usually doesn't pitch deep into games. But he's at home, their best hitter Corey Seager is back in the heart of the order, and they're still playing for something — which is more than the Giants can say. The Rangers have been excellent in close games all year; the Giants have been terrible in them, and it got worse today when they traded away the guy who closes out wins. Webb keeps this one tight into the late innings, it comes down to the final outs, and only one of these teams still has a bullpen built to finish the job. Give me the Rangers.

Rangers ML-135

CONF

63%

MLB8:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Astros

**Gary's Take** It's trade deadline day in Houston, and the Astros are the hottest team in baseball right now — they've won six in a row and almost every game for two weeks. Meanwhile, Toronto spent the whole afternoon giving up on their season. They actually traded Daulton Varsho to Houston just hours before this game — he'll be hitting in the middle of the order tonight against his old teammates — and they shipped off Jeff Hoffman, one of their most trusted relievers. On top of all that, Yordan Alvarez is chasing history at the plate in front of a home crowd that's going crazy for him. Shane Bieber has to walk into all of that for Toronto. He used to be one of the best pitchers in the game, but he's not that guy anymore. Right-handed hitters have been absolutely feasting on him all year, hitters keep squaring him up hard, and in his last start he couldn't even finish the first inning — he walked batter after batter and got pulled early. That's a problem, because Houston's lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters like Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, and Yainer Diaz, and they play in a park with a short left-field wall those guys love. Peña and Alvarez have both been on fire lately, and both are way better at home. This lineup is built to punish exactly what Bieber has become. The one catch is Houston's own pitching. Cristian Javier is still working his way back from a shoulder injury, so he won't go deep tonight, and the bullpen behind him has been used hard three days in a row. That's why I'm just betting Houston to win, not to win big — this could easily be a game where they give up some runs late. But look at the other side: Toronto can barely score right now, their closer looked shaky blowing a save yesterday, their bullpen just got thinner from the trades, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing on a sore hamstring. One team is rolling and built to hammer a fading pitcher; the other can't hit and just held a fire sale. I'm happy to pay the price. Astros to win.

Astros ML-143

CONF

70%

MLB8:05 PM

Dodgers @ Cubs

**Gary's Take** The Dodgers roll into Wrigley having just been swept at home by the Red Sox, giving up runs in bunches for two weeks straight — and somehow they're still the favorite tonight. The Cubs, meanwhile, just went toe-to-toe with the Yankees all weekend in tight, low-scoring games, and their pitching barely gave up anything. It's a lefty-versus-lefty matchup, Justin Wrobleski against Matthew Boyd, and the betting money has been piling onto Los Angeles all day, making them a bigger favorite by the hour. That's exactly the move I want to bet against. Wrobleski's win-loss record looks shiny, but look closer and it's shakier than it seems — hitters have been crushing the ball off him, Seattle just took him deep four times, and the way he's actually pitching, he's been getting hit a lot harder than his numbers suggest. Boyd is the opposite story: he just threw seven shutout innings in St. Louis, has been nearly untouchable his last couple of starts, and has owned this exact Dodgers lineup for years — Freeman, Ohtani, and Edman have all struggled badly against him. With Muncy sitting against the lefty and a backup catcher, Eliezer Alfonzo, behind the plate, the bottom of the Dodgers lineup gets thin fast. The Cubs bring the hotter bats too: Bregman is scorching, Hoerner just homered, Suzuki is locked in, and Crow-Armstrong turns into a different player under the Wrigley lights. Then there's what happens after the starters leave, and that's where this really tips. The Dodgers bullpen is gassed — they just worked a ton of innings over three games with two relievers freshly sent down and Blake Treinen still hurt. The Cubs pen is rested, nobody's pitched back-to-back days, and they just added Clay Holmes at the trade deadline. With Will Smith and Dalton Rushing both hurt, Alfonzo catches tonight — and the Cubs love to run, so expect Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner to test his arm early and often. A team that wins at home, the fresher pitching staff, a starter who owns this lineup, and you're getting paid extra to take them? I'll take the Cubs and let everyone else keep overpaying for the name on the road jersey.

Cubs ML+109

CONF

58%

MLB8:40 PM

Rays @ Rockies

It's trade deadline day in Denver, and both teams spent the afternoon saying goodbye to teammates. The Rockies just swept Kansas City — their lefty starter went the whole way in the finale, something he'd never done before — and then the front office traded away a couple of regulars before the deadline passed. The Rays come to town as the best team in the American League, but they just got smacked around at home by a bad White Sox team, and now they're starting a long road trip in the thin mountain air. The betting price on Tampa Bay has climbed all day, and I think that's people reacting to the deadline storyline — one team buying, one team selling — more than anything about tonight's actual game. And tonight's game looks a lot messier than that price suggests. Tampa's young starter has been a nice surprise, but he's a soft-tossing lefty who gives up balls in the air, and he hasn't made it deep into a game in his last two tries. Now put him in the biggest outfield in baseball, a mile above sea level, and hand things over to a bullpen that got worked hard all weekend. That's a recipe for trouble in the middle innings. Colorado is the exact opposite: their bullpen got a full day off because their starter finished the game himself, and the top of their lineup is red hot right now — a couple of guys who simply can't miss at the moment. Now the honest part: Colorado's starter has been bad at home, and Tampa loads up their lineup with lefty hitters against righties who struggle with them — that's exactly why I won't bet the Rockies to win the game outright. But the Rays have been a losing team on the road, they've barely scored lately, the bottom of their lineup includes a catcher who was in the minors days ago, and the wind is blowing in tonight, which takes away the usual Denver slugfest. Tight game, tired visiting bullpen, fresh home bullpen — so I'm taking the Rockies with a little cushion: they can win outright or lose by a single run and I still cash. I'll live with the sweat late.

Rockies +1.5+103

CONF

63%

MLB9:40 PM

Padres @ Diamondbacks

The roof is closed in Arizona with brutal heat outside, the trade deadline just passed, and two division rivals fighting for the same playoff spot are opening a big four-game series. San Diego comes in red hot, winning almost every game for over a week and playing great all-around baseball. Arizona limps home from a rough road trip where one pitcher nearly threw a perfect game against them, they got shut out, and their manager has been calling team meetings and rearranging the bullpen on the fly. San Diego didn't just happen to have Michael King ready for this game — they pushed him back a day on purpose, and I get it. King has dominated this Arizona lineup his whole career, shut them down just last month, and he catches them cold: Ketel Marte has been ice cold for two weeks, Gabriel Moreno can't buy a hit, and the bottom of the order has been giving away at-bats. Brandon Pfaadt is the nice story for Arizona — they haven't lost when he pitches since he came back up — but that run is built on luck. He barely strikes anyone out, lets hitters put the ball in play constantly, and pitches worse in his home park than anywhere else. Now he faces the hottest lineup in baseball: Ty France and Jackson Merrill have been on fire for two weeks, Luis Rengifo too, Tatis is crushing the ball, and Manny Machado has hammered Pfaadt his whole career. A pitcher who lets hitters make contact against a lineup smashing everything is a tough way to keep a streak going. Then there's the end of the game, where these teams couldn't be more different. Arizona just took the closer job away from Paul Sewald after he fell apart, and the manager is openly trying different guys night to night. San Diego rested Mason Miller on Sunday specifically for this series, and he's been the best reliever in baseball. In a game the betting market sees as a toss-up, one team knows exactly who finishes it and the other is guessing. With barely any extra cost to back them, the hotter lineup, the rested ace, and a locked-in closer, I'll take the Padres.

Padres ML-105

CONF

64%

Player props

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler's climbing into another gear right now, not settling into one. His whiff rate has jumped to 31 and then 35 percent over his last two starts, the fastball is sitting late-90s, and the curveball is getting swung through nearly half the time it's thrown. He's cleared seven strikeouts in six of his last eight turns.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-148

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Michael McGreevy

McGreevy's swing-and-miss stuff has been evaporating start to start — his whiff rate has fallen from the low-20s down to single digits and back to the low-teens over his last five outings, and his most recent start didn't survive the second inning. His fastball and cutter are both getting squared up hard right now, the cutter in particular getting hit for real damage. When hitters are putting bat on ball instead of missing it, the punchouts dry up, and he's been under this number in six of his last eight starts. I don't see a reason that changes tonight against a Yankees lineup that's still plenty capable even without Judge and Bellinger in it.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-144

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Aaron Nola

Nola's been a different pitcher walking out of his own bullpen door this year — 6.70 at Citizens Bank Park against 4.76 everywhere else, and that split isn't noise at this point, it's a full season of home starts. He's getting hit hard doing it too, over 40% hard-contact and a double-digit barrel rate, both marks that say hitters are finding the barrel more than the ERA even suggests.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+115

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Andrew Alvarez

This one's about pattern, not price. Alvarez has cleared five innings exactly once in his last eight starts — everything else has been right around four, four-and-a-third.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs-122

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales is the hottest hitter on this roster right now — 20 hits in his last 15 games, a .328 average, and he's been getting on base or driving somebody in almost every night. He's a right-handed bat facing a right-hander in Sproat who's actually been more hittable against righties than lefties this year, a 5.05 ERA that isn't hiding anything. This is a bat in rhythm against a pitcher who hasn't figured out how to keep anyone off the barrel. One and a half combined hits, runs, and RBIs is a low bar for where Gonzales is standing right now.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+106

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Bubba Chandler

Chandler's been touched up for extra-base contact by left-handed hitters all year, and Milwaukee is sending out a lineup with five lefty bats tonight. He's allowed at least five hits in five of his last six outings, and that's before accounting for a home lineup that's the best offense he's faced in that stretch. He's a converted reliever still searching for consistency deep into starts, and this Brewers order is built to lean on exactly the weakness he has against left-handed contact.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-115

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

Cal Quantrill

Quantrill just hasn't been going deep into games this year. Look at his last six turns — outside of one outing against Houston, he hasn't cleared six innings once, and more often than not he's coming out somewhere in the fourth or fifth.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-165

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

Rafael Devers

Devers is a left-handed bat walking into about the cleanest matchup on this board. Quantrill has been genuinely bad against lefties all season — real damage allowed, homers included, over a decent chunk of at-bats.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+130

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Mookie Betts

Betts has been under .230 for both his last week and his last two weeks — this isn't a bad series, it's a sustained stretch. He's cleared a second base or more in only two of his last fifteen games. That's not a one-off cold night I'm betting will continue, it's a pattern that's held across multiple looks already, and I don't see the specific trigger for it to flip tonight.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-160

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Matthew Boyd

Boyd's last two starts both went a full seven innings, and five of his last six have cleared six. He's working efficiently right now — getting outs on quick, manageable contact rather than grinding through deep counts chasing strikeouts — and that's exactly the kind of start that lets a pitcher work deep into a game.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-128

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Cristian Javier

Javier made one start in over three months before this one, and in his four turns back he hasn't finished the fifth inning a single time — 3.0, 1.0, 3.2, 4.2 innings, with a 1.83 WHIP to go with it. A pitcher that fresh off a long layoff isn't getting stretched against a lineup scoring six a game right now, and Houston's bullpen is deep enough that there's no reason to push him. The market still leans over here, which doesn't match anything about how his season has actually gone. I'll take the under at plus money.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+120

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Jeremy Pena

Pena is running a .418 average and a 1.33 OPS with seven home runs over his last fifteen games — this is as hot as a hitter gets. He hits right-handed pitching well, he's been better at home than on the road, and his early looks against tonight's starter have gone his way too. He's leading off against a pitcher who just walked six men and didn't survive the first inning of his last start. Two total bases from a hitter this locked in shouldn't be a coin flip, but that's the price I'm getting.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Ian Seymour

Seymour has pitched better than his ERA all season — his expected number sits a full run lower, the kind of gap that tends to close in the pitcher's favor. The matchup sets up for him too: once both Colorado switch-hitters flip to the right side against a lefty, six of the nine hitters he'll see tonight are batting from the side he's dominated all year, holding right-handers under .200. His changeup alone is missing bats at a forty percent rate. Coors is new ground for him and I won't pretend the building hasn't humbled better pitchers, but a guy outperforming his own ERA against the exact side of the plate he's about to face is live to keep the hit total down even there.

UNDER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-134

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Ezequiel Tovar

Tovar's ice cold — a hit in only a third of his games the last couple weeks and an average sitting around .115 over that stretch — and tonight the matchup doesn't throw him a rope either. Seymour has been one of the toughest left-handers in the league on right-handed hitters this season, holding them under .200. When a hitter is struggling this badly and lines up against the exact side of the plate the pitcher has owned all year, betting the zero is the higher-probability read, and it still pays a little on top.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+120

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Michael King

Michael King strikes out just under five hitters a start on the season, and this line is asking me to bet under a number he clears more often than not. His last two times out he's missed more bats than usual, and the stuff is trending the right way late in the summer.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+110

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Ty France

Ty France is running about a hundred points of OPS over his season number across his last two weeks, with four home runs in that stretch, and he's doing his damage against right-handed pitching — exactly what he's facing tonight. He's been squaring the ball up hard and rarely missing lately. He's cleared a total base and a half in eleven of his last fifteen games. A hitter swinging it this well shouldn't be plus money to get to two total bases, and I'm taking that number.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is doing something absurd right now — nine hits in his last eighteen at-bats with two home runs in that stretch, and an average exit velocity near 98 miles an hour on his recent contact. That is not a hot week, that is a hitter squaring up everything he sees.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+369

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is the best hitter alive right now and he's been getting hotter, not cooling off, into August — a .404 average and four home runs over his last two weeks, and his numbers at home this season border on absurd. Bieber is exactly the pitcher you want to see across from him: a right-hander the league is punishing right now, and his last outing didn't survive the first inning. Put a locked-in Alvarez, at home, at night — his best split — across from a fastball that keeps landing over the plate and getting hit hard, and this price undersells how live it is.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+240

MLB HR · Giants @ Rangers

Rafael Devers

Devers has four home runs in his last fifteen games and he found the seats again just last night in the loss to San Diego, so the swing is very much alive right now. What actually sells me on tonight is the shape of the matchup underneath that streak.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

Jeremy Pena

Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Jeremy Peña — seven home runs in his last fifteen games and an OPS well over 1.300 in that stretch. That's not a hot game, that's a hot month. He's also a much better hitter at home and against right-handers, both boxes Bieber checks, and Bieber is walking people and leaving the ball out over the plate more than a former Cy Young winner should right now. Peña's chasing more than usual too, which tells me this is an aggressive, see-ball-hit-ball kind of hot — exactly the version of a hitter I want in a power spot like this, and at this price I don't need to be right often for it to pay.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Jake Bauers

Bauers is the hottest left-handed bat on this field right now — two home runs in his last week, and the contact quality behind it backs up the results, not just a couple of lucky fly balls. He handles right-handed pitching well over a full season, and Bubba Chandler is a right-hander with a real split problem: he's been considerably more hittable against lefties than righties all year, mostly in the power numbers. Chandler also tends to get pulled early once he starts laboring, so Bauers figures to see him more than once tonight before Pittsburgh turns to the bullpen. There's a wind blowing in from right field that works against pulled fly balls, and that's worth respecting, but a hitter this hot against a pitcher with this specific weakness is still worth the number here.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki's swing has been the best version of itself all month — three home runs and a .969 OPS over his last two weeks, with the underlying contact backing it up rather than a string of bloops. He has also been a clearly better hitter against left-handed pitching than right-handed this year, both in average and in power, which lines up well against a lefty starter tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Junior Caminero

Michael Lorenzen taking the mound at Coors is the headline here — an 8.34 ERA in ten starts in this building against 5.16 everywhere else, and his sinker and cutter are getting torched to the tune of a .38-plus expected wOBA all season. Caminero is the Rays bat with the profile to take advantage: 91 mph average exit velocity and three barrels in his last nineteen batted balls, with twenty-three home runs on the year against right-handed pitching alone. He also hits better at night, and first pitch is 8:40. Lorenzen's own park splits are about as loud a red flag as this sheet has, and Caminero's bat is loud enough to answer it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+260

MLB HR · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill is the loudest story on this board. Over his last fifteen games he's hitting .396 with a 1.203 OPS and six home runs — that's a hitter who found something. He said a few weeks back that he'd gone back to video of his high school swing, trying to get back to being 'free and easy, hitting the ball everywhere,' and whatever clicked, it shows up in the swings now: 94.5 mph average exit velocity and three barreled balls in his last twenty in play. He's chasing more than I'd like outside the zone, but he's not missing the pitches he does chase.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+620

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

CJ Abrams

Abrams is running as hot as anybody in the league right now — eight home runs in his last fifteen days will do that to a price. But this isn't just a hot-hand bet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420

MLB HR · Giants @ Rangers

Joc Pederson

Pederson's been one of the hottest bats in this lineup, three homers in his last week and four over his last fifteen games, with the slugging to match. The matchup lines up almost too cleanly with that form. He's an .864 OPS, nineteen-homer hitter against right-handed pitching this year and a much quieter .703 against lefties, and Webb throws right-handed.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+470

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Brandon Lowe

Nobody in this game is swinging it better than Lowe right now — an OPS over 1.000 for the week, and the exit velocity and barrel rate behind those swings say it's real, not just seeing-eye hits. He does real damage against the fastball, and Brandon Sproat is leaning on his four-seamer and cutter for close to half his pitches this year, with that cutter getting hit hard by pretty much everyone who's faced it. Sproat also walks a fair number of hitters, which usually means he's around the plate more than he'd like rather than nibbling corners. He's a lefty stepping into a wind blowing in from right field tonight, so conditions aren't perfect, but a bat this locked in against a pitcher leaking this much hard contact is a spot worth taking.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+365

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Hunter Goodman

Goodman is the hottest power bat in either lineup right now — six home runs in his last fifteen games on top of thirty-three for the season, and his OPS climbs past .930 both against lefties and after dark. Ian Seymour is left-handed and has allowed a homer in five of his last six starts, several of them early exits. Goodman's chasing more than he usually does lately, so the strikeouts will be in there too, but this is a hitter doing real damage when he connects, in the building that turns fly balls into homers.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Crow-Armstrong's contact quality over the last two weeks is loud — north of ninety mile-an-hour average exit velocity and a barrel rate that stands out even in a small sample. He is also a considerably different hitter at night than during the day this season, close to two hundred points of OPS better under the lights, and this is a night game at Wrigley.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda hasn't run into one in his last fifteen games, but his expected slugging is sitting well above his actual slugging, which reads more like the ball finding gloves than the bat losing life — two barrels in his last sixteen batted balls back that up. He's left-handed against a right-hander tonight, and Lorenzen has been one of the more homer-prone pitchers in the league against lefties this year, a 1.019 OPS and twelve home runs allowed in 241 at-bats. Aranda's own career number against right-handed pitching, thirteen homers in 279 at-bats, matches that shape. I think tonight's the kind of spot where the recent drought breaks.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+440

MLB HR · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll

Corbin Carroll's slash line the last two weeks won't grab anybody — .226 average, two home runs in fifty-three at-bats — but the contact underneath it is a lot louder than the results. His average exit velocity over that stretch is 97.1 mph with sixteen hard-hit balls in twenty-two balls in play, and he's chasing pitches out of the zone just 15% of the time. That's a hitter squaring the ball up and running into bad luck on where it's landing, not a cold bat.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Kyle Schwarber

The board already has Schwarber as the shortest price in the game and I'm not fighting that, I'm agreeing with it. He's been cold, and I'll say it plainly instead of dancing around it — this isn't a hot-streak pick.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+325

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez has gone deep twice in his last seven games, and he is still putting together the kind of contact that produces home runs rather than empty singles. He already has a home run on his ledger against Boyd specifically, and the larger split favors him too — Boyd has allowed noticeably more power to right-handed hitters than left-handed ones this season, and Hernandez bats right-handed. He is not the hottest name on this board, but recent power, a track record against tonight's starter, and a real platoon edge together are enough for me to take a shot at plus-five-twenty-six.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+526

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

George Springer

Springer's barreling the ball again — the contact quality the last couple weeks is a clear step up from earlier in the year, and he's carrying a .990 OPS over his last fifteen games. His career numbers against Javier himself are nothing to write home about, but that's an eight-at-bat sample against a pitcher who looks nothing like the one who first faced him. Javier's working back from a shoulder issue and is leaning hard on a fastball that's gotten hit around all year, and fastball is the one pitch Springer has consistently done damage against. I'll take the recent form and the pitch-mix fit over a stale head-to-head number.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+460

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Willi Castro

Castro's the best value on the board relative to what he's actually doing right now — two home runs in his last week, including a 422-foot shot to center, and three barrels in his last ten batted balls. The board's pricing him like a guy who rarely connects, but he's gone deep in five of his last fifteen games. Switch-hitter, so he gets to choose his side against Seymour, and right now his bat is doing more than plus-565 is asking of it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+565

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Trea Turner

Turner is the hottest bat anywhere in this lineup right now — four home runs in his last fifteen days and he was squaring up everything in the series finale at Baltimore. There's no real history between him and Alvarez to lean on either way, so I'm going with what's true about him right now instead of digging for a matchup story that isn't there. A right-handed bat seeing the ball this well, in his own ballpark, at plus-six hundred, is a price I'll take on form alone.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Giants @ Rangers

Daniel Susac

Susac is doing something all his own right now, three home runs in the last week alone and an OPS pushing 1.700 over that stretch. What makes me trust it is that his expected numbers on the season line up almost exactly with his actual numbers, which tells me this is legitimately hard contact and not a run of bloops finding grass. The one real caution is the handedness matchup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+680

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez has a track record of doing real damage against sinkers when he sees them, and Brandon Sproat throws his sinker close to a quarter of the time — that's a specific enough matchup to matter, even allowing for a small sample. What keeps me from leaning harder here is that Valdez has gone quiet over the last week after an earlier hot stretch, and his power this season has leaned toward day games more than night games — this one's under the lights. I like the matchup enough to take a shot at this price, but it's a lighter touch than the other two swings I'm taking tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+402

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

Kazuma Okamoto

Okamoto's pop plays well against a fastball, and Javier still throws his four-seamer more than half the time even this early back from injury. Okamoto's been just as productive on the road as he has at home this season, so the trip to Houston doesn't worry me, and he already has a homer in his last week. Javier's a diminished arm right now trying to find his rhythm in real innings again — that's the kind of start that turns into a mistake pitch a middle-of-the-order bat like Okamoto can do something with.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Manny Machado

Manny Machado's pop has been real the last two weeks — four home runs, an .872 OPS over his last fifty-seven at-bats, and three barreled balls in his last twenty in play, right there with Carroll's contact numbers. He's also had Brandon Pfaadt's number in his career, a 1.068 OPS with a home run in seventeen at-bats.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+496

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

James Wood

I won't pretend Wood's swing has looked right the last couple weeks — it hasn't, and the batting line says so. But I'm not betting the last fifteen days, I'm betting what he does to right-handed pitching across a full season, which is twenty-one home runs in two hundred seventy-six at-bats, as good a rate as anyone in this lineup. Nola is walking into the building where his ERA runs almost two runs higher than it does anywhere else, and he's been giving up hard contact and homers all year regardless of opponent. A cold two weeks doesn't erase what Wood's shown he can do to exactly this look, and tonight Nola's the one bringing the risk, not Wood.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Giants @ Rangers

Wyatt Langford

The results haven't shown up for Langford this week, one homer and an average barely over .130 across his last seven games, but I'm looking past that line. His average exit velocity over that same stretch is sitting near 93 miles an hour, about as hard as anyone in this lineup has been hitting the ball, against only one barrel on seventeen balls in play — that's a hitter getting beat by bad luck, not bad swings. He's also a much better hitter against right-handed pitching this season, an .855 OPS and nine home runs against righties compared to .727 against lefties, and Webb is a right-hander who leans on his sinker more than any other pitch, a pitch Langford has hit .364 against with a .500 slugging mark. I think the quality of contact catches up to the results tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

Yainer Diaz

Yainer Diaz is running a five-hundred-plus average with two home runs over his last week, and he's an everyday presence in the middle of an Astros lineup that's won eleven of its last twelve. This price feels like it's pricing his season more than what he's actually doing right now. He's a right-handed bat against a right-hander who's letting righties tee off on him all year, in a park built for exactly this kind of contact. I'm not staking my night on it, but at this number it's a live share.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

Hub research

153

starter_team_recordLAD @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
Seven wins in his last eight starts, and unlike some win-loss numbers that ride on a hot lineup, this one's got real pitching behind it lately. The Dodgers are a legitimate test of whether that stretch holds up.
starter_team_recordWSH @ PHI
Phillies 1-7 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts
Nola takes the ball and the Phillies have gone ice cold behind him — 1-7 in his last eight starts, six straight losses in that stretch. That's a real gap between one guy's own work and how the scoreboard's finishing, and it's fair to ask whether that's the bullpen, the bats, or just a bad run of luck.
cut_listTOR tonight
Shane Bieber
Starts tonight for TOR — 7.53 xERA behind a 5.75 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Cristian Javier (RHP)
Lukes has hit right-handers all year (.785) and barely resembled a hitter against lefties (.359). He gets Javier, a righty, leading off tonight — that's the side of him that shows up.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueSD @ ARI
San Diego Padres pen: 18.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nine different arms over three days for that pen, and Morejon and Estrada both worked both of the last two days — I'd cross those two off for tonight. Add in Márquez's 5-inning, 70-pitch relief outing and Matsui's 3 innings on 49 pitches, and that's four of the six most-used arms already compromised heading into Arizona.
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: 1.203 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's doing damage right now — a 1.203 OPS over his last 53 plate appearances, more than half a run higher than what he's done all year. Sixteen homers on the season and he looks locked in at the plate.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
streakingTOR @ HOU
HOU have won 6 straight
Houston's not just winning six straight, they're doing it by 22 runs combined — that's domination, not a lucky stretch. Toronto's catching them at about the worst possible time.
P team lost 3-1
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Cal Quantrill (RHP), batting 6th
Gilbert's .774 against right-handers next to .089 against lefties isn't really a platoon split, it's two different hitters. Quantrill's a righty, so tonight he gets the version that can actually hit.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeSTL @ NYY
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Burleson hitting third against a right-hander is exactly the look I want for him — a .941 mark against that side isn't some small-sample number, that's 292 at-bats of real signal.
P 3-for-5, 12 TB
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.330 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on one — 1.330 over his last 55 plate appearances, well above an already strong .904 for the year. Thirteen homers on the season and he's still trending up.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .492 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Sproat
Reynolds is in a real slump — .492 over his last 56 plate appearances, well down from .832 on the season — and tonight's matchup doesn't help. Sproat's a righty, and that's been the tougher side of his split all year.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.322 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams has twenty-eight homers and is running a 1.322 OPS over his last two weeks. A 2.5 total-base number tonight looks conservative for where his bat's at.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgePIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Leadoff spot against a right-hander is Turang's best possible matchup — .916 against that side versus .588 the other way, and Chandler's exactly the pitcher type he wants to see.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueSD @ ARI
18.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 18.7 innings over the last 3 games (German Marquez (5) and Yuki Matsui (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-5
starter_team_recordSTL @ NYY
Cardinals 2-6 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts
St. Louis is 2-6 in McGreevy's last eight starts, and given where his peripherals actually sit, that record might be a more honest read on this staff than his ERA is. Rough spot to be walking into Yankee Stadium with that behind him.
starter_team_recordSD @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Pfaadt's last eight starts, winners of six straight when he's on the mound. His own recent form backs it up too — this isn't just a good lineup getting hot in front of an average arm.
head_to_headPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 5-1 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's run through this series, 5-1 with a 14-5 win last time out. That's a lopsided number for a season series, and I'd want to separate how much is these two teams specifically versus the Pirates just playing good ball in general right now.
head_to_headWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 6-2 vs Nationals this season
Philly's dominated this matchup, 6-2 with a 10-5 win last time out. Lopsided season series like this can be a real, repeatable matchup story, or it can just be one team playing better baseball overall and it showing up against everybody — worth knowing which before leaning on the head-to-head number itself.
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's riding a heater — 1.056 over his last 45 plate appearances, way up from .635 for the year. That's a hitter you don't want to see right now if you're on the mound.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .566 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Rice is cold right now, but the matchup bails him out on paper — he's a .982 hitter against right-handers, and McGreevy fits that exactly. I'd watch this one for a bounce-back before I'd bet on the slump continuing.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingTOR @ HOU
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Toronto games have stayed under five straight, averaging 5.2 runs a night against lines that expected 8.3 combined — that's a real gap, not noise. Tonight's total actually jumped to 9, so the board isn't just extrapolating that under streak forward.
P final total 4 vs 9
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Carter's a completely different hitter against right-handers — .731 versus .330 the other way — and he gets that look from the 5-hole tonight against Webb.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 6th against Cristian Javier (RHP)
Sanchez has crushed right-handed pitching all year (.800) and struggled against lefties (.364). Javier's a righty, so tonight lines up his way from the six-hole.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .329 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Grisham's been cold for two weeks, but tonight's matchup is actually one of his better ones — McGreevy's a righty, and that's the side he's hit better all year. If there's a night for this to turn, it's this one.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
platoon_edgePIT @ MIL
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Brandon Sproat (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe's been much better against right-handers this season — .899 against .606 — and Sproat gives him that look from the two-hole tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
platoon_edgeLAD @ CHC
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Justin Wrobleski (LHP), batting 4th
Kelly turns into a real threat against lefties — .945 OPS there against .599 versus right-handers — and Wrobleski, a lefty, is exactly the matchup he wants batting cleanup.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
regression_tomorrowMIN @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.04 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
A 1.04 ERA next to a 4.58 xERA is about as wide a gap as you'll find on a board — three and a half runs of separation. A .219 average against on an expected .284, with a 43.9% hard-hit rate that isn't showing up in the barrel numbers, is the profile of a guy getting away with more than his ERA lets on.
platoon_edgeSTL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Same story on the other side of this one — Garcia in the 3-hole against a righty, .918 OPS on 302 at-bats against that side. Two lineups, two favorable platoon looks in the same spot tonight.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
gary_hr_threatsCardinals @ Yankees
Spencer Jones
Gary's Take Jones has three home runs in his last week, and the contact behind them isn't cheap — he's averaging 97 miles an hour off the bat with five barrels among his last fifteen batted balls, so this isn't a couple of lucky bounces. He's a left-handed pull hitter walking into a right field porch that's practically built for him, against a right-hander who's been living on borrowed time all year.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_formSTL @ NYY
Michael McGreevy: 7.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.53 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP across his last three starts — whatever number gets built off his 3.57 season line tonight is pricing a pitcher who hasn't looked like that in a month.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
rest_fatigueLAD @ CHC
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Cole Irvin (6) and Kyle Hurt (2) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-10
two_start_weekColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Neither ticket's been punched yet — he opens Tuesday at home against the Rays and closes the week Sunday on the road at the Cardinals. That 2.33 xERA is the best number anybody on this list is carrying. Top arm of the group. Start him both nights, no debate.
cooling_offTB @ COL
Jonathan Aranda: .472 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Lorenzen
Aranda's cold — .472 over his last 52 plate appearances against .801 for the season — and the matchup doesn't rescue him either. Lorenzen's a righty, which happens to be the side Aranda's actually hit well this year.
P 4-for-5, 5 TB
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
Trea Turner: .992 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's at a .992 clip over the last two weeks with sixteen homers already this season. I like a hitter swinging it this well against that 1.5 total-bases number.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsDodgers @ Cubs
Shohei Ohtani
Gary's Take Ohtani is doing something absurd right now — nine hits in his last eighteen at-bats with two home runs in that stretch, and an average exit velocity near 98 miles an hour on his recent contact. That is not a hot week, that is a hitter squaring up everything he sees.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsBlue Jays @ Astros
Yordan Alvarez
Gary's Take Alvarez is the best hitter alive right now and he's been getting hotter, not cooling off, into August — a .404 average and four home runs over his last two weeks, and his numbers at home this season border on absurd. Bieber is exactly the pitcher you want to see across from him: a right-hander the league is punishing right now, and his last outing didn't survive the first inning.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Christian Walker
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .775 OPS, bats 5th.
gary_hr_threatsCardinals @ Yankees
Luis Garcia Jr.
Gary's Take Garcia walked into a first-place lineup this week and hasn't blinked — two home runs and an OPS over 1.100 in his last seven games, three homers in his last two weeks, and he's been one of the more dangerous bats in this lineup against right-handed pitching all season. Tonight he sees a right-hander in McGreevy who has one of the more hittable arsenals in the league right now — hitters are batting .364 against his cutter, one of the worst marks he throws.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
gary_hr_threatsGiants @ Rangers
Rafael Devers
Gary's Take Devers has four home runs in his last fifteen games and he found the seats again just last night in the loss to San Diego, so the swing is very much alive right now. What actually sells me on tonight is the shape of the matchup underneath that streak.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Isaac Paredes
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .773 OPS, bats 3rd.
streakingSF @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Texas games are averaging 9.3 combined runs across this four-game over streak, against lines that were averaging 7.5. Tonight's total climbed to 8, so the board's adjusting toward the trend without fully chasing it yet.
P final total 6 vs 8
gary_hr_threatsCardinals @ Yankees
Ben Rice
Gary's Take Rice hasn't gone deep in his last week, but I'm not reading much into that — he's put up sixteen home runs at home this season alone, and his numbers against right-handed pitching are near the top of this roster. McGreevy's cutter has been hit hard by everybody who's seen it, a .364 average against it, and Rice is a hitter who does his damage over the heart of the plate.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
George Springer: .990 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer's heating up — .990 over his last 49 plate appearances compared to .731 on the year. A half-base total tonight looks light for that kind of form.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Corey Seager (bats L) draws Logan Webb (RHP), batting 3rd
Seager's blended season line undersells this matchup — .729 against right-handers versus .506 the other way, and he's hitting third against a righty tonight in Webb.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two home dates, both still in front of him — Pirates come to Milwaukee Tuesday, Twins follow Sunday. His 2.67 xERA is the second-cleanest number here, behind only Hughes. Start both. This is the kind of two-for-one you don't sit and think about.
ballpark_shiftTB @ COL
Michael Lorenzen owns a 8.34 ERA at Coors Field — 5.16 everywhere else
8.34 at Coors against 5.16 everywhere else, and that's across a real sample — 45-plus innings at altitude versus almost 60 elsewhere. Hitters batting .354 off him in that building says the split isn't subtle.
P 3 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
rest_fatiguePIT @ MIL
PIT's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Antwone Kelly (3) and Carmen Mlodzinski (3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-3
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Alex Bregman: .947 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bregman's swinging it well — .947 over his last 53 plate appearances against .717 for the season, eleven homers to his name.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
James Wood: .677 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Wood's come back down some — .677 over his last 55 plate appearances against .932 for the year — but Nola being a righty is actually his best matchup all season at .984.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Road trip both ends of the week — Tuesday at the Cubs, Sunday at the Diamondbacks. His 2.98 ties him with Luzardo right at the group's midpoint. Two road starts don't move me off a number like that. Start him both.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
This week already has a start in the books — Monday at home against the Cardinals. What's left is Saturday's home date with the Braves. He's carrying a 2.89 xERA into it. Monday's start is already banked into your week one way or the other. Saturday's the only real decision left, and that xERA says don't overthink it.
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Both starts are home dates and both are still ahead — Nationals Tuesday, Blue Jays to close it out Sunday. 2.98 xERA, dead center of this group. Start both. Middle of this pack is still better than the top of most others.
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .541 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Alvarez
Schwarber's cold, but a lefty on the mound tonight is the one thing that could end it — he's a .970 hitter against left-handers, well clear of what he's shown the last two weeks.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
cooling_offTB @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .582 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
McCarthy's cooled off — .582 over his last 55 plate appearances against .821 for the year — but Seymour being a lefty tonight plays right into his strength, a .955 mark against lefties this season.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offPIT @ MIL
Garrett Mitchell: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Mitchell's been quiet for two weeks, but tonight's exactly the matchup he wants — a right-hander, and he's been well above his season line against that side all year. I'd expect signs of life here.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkTB @ COL
Hunter Goodman: 1.172 OPS in Last 15 Days
Goodman's doing serious damage — 1.172 over his last 41 plate appearances stacked on an already strong .887 this year. Thirty-three homers and he's still finding another gear.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowSD @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.48 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
There's a two-run gap between his 2.48 ERA and 4.8 xERA, but I'd separate this from the uglier regression cases on this board — a 35.3% hard-hit rate and an 8.8% barrel rate are still clean marks. Reads more like a good pitcher catching some ball-in-play help than someone about to fall apart.
regression_watchSTL @ NYY
Michael McGreevy: 3.57 ERA vs 5.66 xERA
Two-plus runs separate his 3.57 ERA from a 5.66 xERA, and the contact numbers explain why — a 42.6% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate over 10%, against results that have only allowed a .252 average on an expected .290. That's soft results sitting on top of hard contact, walking into a lineup like the Yankees'.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
One on the road, one at home — Tuesday at the Brewers, then back to Pittsburgh Sunday for the Mets. 3.02 xERA puts him on the back half of this list. Back half of a group this strong still starts. Play him both.
running_gamePIT @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Henry Davis (47% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Davis throws out 47% of runners, one of the better marks at the position, and Milwaukee's running anyway — a steal a game as a team. They're not letting the arm change the approach.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
ballpark_shiftSTL @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.83 ERA
Schlittler's actually been sharper on the road than at Yankee Stadium — 1.10 ERA elsewhere against 3.83 at home, across nine starts in the Bronx. Worth knowing before anyone assumes his own park is automatically the better spot for him.
P 3 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
starter_formSF @ TEX
Cal Quantrill: 6.57 ERA over his last 3 starts
Quantrill's last three starts have gone the wrong direction — 6.57 ERA, nearly three runs worse than his season mark. Until he shows me otherwise, that's the version I'm expecting tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
cut_listSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.66 xERA behind a 3.57 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
two_start_weekToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/3
Trey Yesavage
Two road tickets left to play, nothing used yet — Tuesday at the Astros, Sunday at the Phillies. 3.33 xERA, second-widest of the group. Start both. Back of this list is still a two-start week worth having.
heat_checkSF @ TEX
Joc Pederson: 1.112 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pederson's been the hottest bat in this whole group — 1.112 over his last two weeks with twenty homers already this year. Hard to fade that kind of form right now.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formLAD @ CHC
Matthew Boyd: 0.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
Two earned runs in 20 innings across his last three outings — a 0.90 ERA that looks nothing like the 3.41 he's carrying for the season. Whatever price gets built off the season number tonight is pricing the wrong version of him.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
regression_watchTOR @ HOU
Shane Bieber: 5.75 ERA vs 7.53 xERA
His ERA's already bad at 5.75, and the peripherals say the real number should be worse — 7.53. A 45.5% hard-hit rate against a .307 expected average says hitters are squaring him up regularly, and the .270 he's actually carrying instead is more fortune than survival.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
two_start_weekTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/3
Ian Seymour
Same situation as Schlittler — his week opened Monday on the road against the Rockies. Saturday at the Mariners is what's still ahead of him. 3.35 is the widest xERA on this list. Monday's already spoken for by the time you're reading this. Saturday's the call in front of you — softest number in the group, but he's still tiered PLAN_AROUND, not a bench arm.
starter_formTOR @ HOU
Shane Bieber: 3.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
3.29 ERA over his last three starts against a 5.74 season mark that's probably still setting tonight's number. Two very different pitchers on paper, and the market's likely still working off the uglier one.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
bullpen_fatigueLAD @ CHC
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cole Irvin threw 6 innings and 102 pitches out of that pen — a starter's workload, not a reliever's, and that's not walking it back tonight regardless of matchup. Hurt and Mills both went multiple innings too, with Mills needing 53 pitches for his two, so if the Dodgers' starter comes out early against the Cubs, Phillips is the one arm in that group who's actually fresh.
cooling_offPIT @ MIL
Jackson Chourio: .637 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Chourio's cold and tonight doesn't do him any favors either — right-handers are actually the tougher side for him, not the easier one. Two things working against him at once here.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
regression_watchTOR @ HOU
Cristian Javier: 7.17 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
7.17 looks like a disaster, but a 5.59 xERA says it's a bad season rather than a full collapse. The strikeout rate's still real at 8.9 per nine, and with a 1.83 WHIP there's plenty of traffic on the bases regardless — some of that ugly number is sequencing turning rough innings uglier, not just bad stuff.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Erik Miller / Ryan Walker
Shared ninth in SF: Erik Miller 4 saves, Ryan Walker 3. The role is live.
ownedSD @ ARI
Manny Machado vs Brandon Pfaadt: .353
Machado's 6-for-17 with a couple walks in his career against Pfaadt, and he's hitting .872 over his last two weeks on top of it. Good matchup meeting a hot bat.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
closer_watchLAD @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Caleb Thielbar
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Caleb Thielbar 3. The role is live.
regression_watchTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .273 AVG vs .225 xBA
Moniak's .273 average is running well ahead of a .225 expected mark. The results have been better than the contact quality underneath them.
P 2-for-4, 7 TB
starter_formSD @ ARI
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.96 ERA with 8 strikeouts across his last three starts, against a 4.00 season mark that's probably still doing the pricing tonight. Matches the team's own 6-2 record with him on the mound over that same stretch.
P 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
cooling_offTOR @ HOU
Kazuma Okamoto: .573 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cristian Javier
Kazuma Okamoto's .573 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .751 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Cristian Javier — his stronger side: a .767 OPS vs RHP across 299 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
Bryson Stott: .920 OPS in Last 15 Days
Stott's been hitting the ball with real authority the last two weeks — .920 OPS, well above his season mark. That 0.5 total-bases number looks light for where he's at right now.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .303 AVG vs .256 xBA
Mangum's hitting .303, but the quality of his contact supports something closer to .256. That's a real gap between the results and what's actually happening at the plate.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
beneficiaryPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum (.744 vs RHP) replaces Oneil Cruz at CF tonight
Cruz has been out five days now with a hand issue, and Mangum's taken over in center — a .744 mark against right-handers, a tick above his .735 line for the year, leading off against Sproat's righty stuff tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
beneficiarySD @ ARI
Max Kepler (.637 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
Lawlar's been out nine days now with a hamstring issue, and Kepler's the one filling in — but the matchup doesn't do him favors, a .637 mark against right-handers that's actually below his .664 for the year, facing King from the five-hole.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .182 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Alvarez
Sosa's been about as cold as a hitter gets the last two weeks, but tonight's matchup — a lefty — is genuinely his better side. I'd watch for signs of life here more than expect the slump to keep going.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
beneficiaryTB @ COL
Victor Mesa Jr. (.730 vs RHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Fraley's groin issue just came up yesterday, and Mesa Jr. gets the start in right field because of it — a solid platoon look too, .730 against right-handers against a .718 line for the year, facing Lorenzen from the five-hole.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
regression_watchLAD @ CHC
Justin Wrobleski: 2.88 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
A forty-five point gap between what hitters are actually batting and what the contact quality says they should be — that's about as clear a sign of favorable bounces as you'll find. I'd expect some pullback toward that 4.3 number.
P 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
beneficiaryTOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (.785 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Barger's been out a week now with an elbow issue, and Lukes has taken the right field job and made the most of it — leading off tonight against Javier, a righty, which happens to be the pitcher he's built for.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkPIT @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: .937 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-six plate appearances is a small window to hang a trend on, but .937 in that window against a .651 season line is still real signal before that 0.5 total-bases number gets set.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
ballpark_shiftWSH @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 6.70 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.76 everywhere else
Nola's been noticeably worse at home than away — 6.70 at Citizens Bank against 4.76 on the road, with hitters batting .313 off him in that specific building. That split sits underneath a pitcher who's already scuffling this year, and he's on his own mound again tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
beneficiarySD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo (.711 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Laureano's been out 59 days now with a hip issue, and Rengifo's settled into left field in his place — .711 against right-handers, above his .635 mark for the year, facing Pfaadt from the six-hole.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchPIT @ MIL
Esmerlyn Valdez: .262 AVG vs .217 xBA
Valdez is hitting .262 against a .217 expected average — a decent-sized gap between the results and the contact underneath them.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 3 BB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Taylor Trammell
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .729 OPS, bats 7th.
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Freddie Freeman: 1.020 OPS in Last 15 Days
Freeman's swinging it as well as anyone right now — 1.020 over the last two weeks. His personal history against tonight's starter says the opposite though, so this is a case where hot form and a rough head-to-head are pulling different directions.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.592 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 2-hole.
park_weatherLAD @ CHC
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Wrigley's got the same wind tonight, in from right field at ten miles an hour. The total's still up at 11.5, so the market isn't fully conceding the point to the weather.
P final total 15 vs 11.5 (under lean)
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
regression_watchLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .229 AVG vs .271 xBA
Betts is hitting more than forty points under what the quality of his contact says he should be. That's the kind of gap that tends to close on its own — it doesn't need him to change a thing, just needs a few more balls to find grass.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftLAD @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Matthew Boyd pitches to a 4.35 ERA
Boyd's actually a bit worse at Wrigley than away from it — 4.35 there against 2.57 elsewhere — even with how well he's pitched across the board lately. Good reminder that his own park isn't automatically the friendly one for him.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
park_weatherPIT @ MIL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
Wind's blowing straight in at ten miles an hour in Milwaukee tonight, the kind that knocks fly balls down before they reach the track. Total's sitting at 9.5 anyway.
P final total 7 vs 9.5 (under lean)
ownedLAD @ CHC
Matthew Boyd vs Freddie Freeman: 1-for-11, 7 K
Freeman's 1-for-11 with seven strikeouts in his career against Boyd — about as lopsided as these individual matchup histories get. Tonight's the rematch.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
regression_watchSD @ ARI
Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
King's beating his peripherals by over a run, but unlike some of the other names on this board, his underlying process actually supports being good — a 33.2% hard-hit rate, an 8.7% barrel rate, and 7.8 strikeouts per nine. The .215 against a .245 expected average is a little friendly, but this isn't a mirage.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.61 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
About a run separates his 5.61 ERA from a 4.33 xERA, and a .279 average against an expected .249 backs up that some balls have found grass they shouldn't have. But a 41.2% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate over 10% mean he's handing out real quality contact too — this isn't clean bad luck, some of this rough year is earned.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Yainer Diaz
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .700 OPS, bats 8th.
regression_watchSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .211 AVG vs .246 xBA
Same story as his last two weeks at the plate — the results are lagging behind the contact quality. A .246 expected average against what he's actually hit says part of this slump is just balls finding gloves instead of grass.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Teoscar Hernandez: .856 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hernandez has quietly turned it on — .856 over the last two weeks, more than a hundred points above his season line. Not the loudest name in this group, but the form's legitimate.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
starter_formPIT @ MIL
Bubba Chandler: 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
14 strikeouts against 5 earned runs across his last 15 innings — a 3.00 ERA that's a run and a half better than his season number. He's trending in the right direction walking into Milwaukee.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
running_gamePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras throwing out 40% of runners is genuinely elite, and Pittsburgh's going to test him anyway. That's a real strength-on-strength battle on the bases tonight, not a free chance to run.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
platoon_edgeWSH @ PHI
Bryson Stott (bats L) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Stott's already hot, and tonight he also gets the matchup — a lefty, his clearly better side. Everything's lining up for him at once here.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cut_listHOU tonight
Cristian Javier
Starts tonight for HOU — 5.59 xERA behind a 7.17 ERA.
closer_watchSD @ ARI
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brandyn Garcia with 3).
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Freddy Peralta's sitting on a 4.99 ERA, but a 5.2 percent barrel rate is about as clean as contact management gets — hitters aren't squaring him up, they're just finding enough grass to inflate the average against him by close to thirty points. The stuff's been better than that ERA all along, even on the road at Colorado tomorrow.
closer_watchWSH @ PHI
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
closer_watchSTL @ NYY
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 24 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
cut_listTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.631 OPS, 0.201 AVG from the 4-hole.
closer_watchSTL @ NYY
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
fantasy_pickupsSTL @ NYY
Spencer Jones
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.66 xERA) — .754 OPS, bats 4th.
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
closer_watchTOR @ HOU
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
closer_watchTB @ COL
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 31 saves this season (next closest: Kevin Kelly with 4).
regression_tomorrowWSH @ PHI
Zack Littell: 4.94 ERA vs 6.12 xERA
4.94 already isn't a good number, and a 6.12 xERA says the process behind it is worse still — a 44.1% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate above 10% put him on the hittable side. The .263 he's actually allowed against an expected .286 is the only thing keeping the ERA from climbing further, and that's a thin cushion walking into Philadelphia.
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez
Pickup vs Cristian Javier (5.59 xERA) — .747 OPS, bats 6th.
heat_checkSTL @ NYY
Spencer Jones: .958 OPS in Last 15 Days
Only 24 plate appearances behind this one, but .958 in that stretch against a .754 season line is still a real jump worth knowing before that 1.5 total-bases number gets bet.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cut_listPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.647 OPS, 0.226 AVG from the 4-hole.
ownedSD @ ARI
Jake Cronenworth vs Brandon Pfaadt: .409
Jake Cronenworth's 9-for-22 with an .846 OPS against Brandon Pfaadt for his career, well ahead of the .666 he's carrying over his last 15 games overall. Whatever's been off lately hasn't shown up against this arm.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.86 xERA) — .832 OPS, bats 3rd.
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Zero arms worked back-to-back days out of nine used over the last three games — about as rested as a pen gets. Doval's 14-pitch outing was the lightest of the group, so he's the one lined up to handle the biggest spot late if Pittsburgh needs it.
first_inningPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Milwaukee's scored in the first inning just 3 of their last 10 games, Pittsburgh the same — 14 combined clean opening frames between them, and the number's priced at Under 0.5 -125. Both starters back it up: Sproat's held hitters to a .209 first-inning average, Chandler .186, even though neither one's actual first-inning ERA — 5.00 and 4.50 — looks that clean on the surface.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
fantasy_pickupsPIT @ MIL
Spencer Horwitz
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.86 xERA) — .829 OPS, bats 5th.
cut_listTEX tonight
Corey Seager
Still hitting 3th for TEX — 0.671 OPS, 0.188 AVG from the 3-hole.
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Gabriel Hughes: 3.33 ERA vs 2.33 xERA
This one runs the other way — his 3.33 ERA is actually worse than his 2.33 xERA. A 27.1% hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate are about as clean as it gets, and a .250 average against an expected .188 points at balls finding holes, not anything wrong with the stuff.
regression_tomorrowSF @ TEX
MacKenzie Gore: 4.77 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Different night than tonight's slate, but worth logging — the average against him actually matches almost exactly what the contact quality predicts, so this isn't a story about bad luck on balls in play. More likely just a matter of when the hard contact bunched up.
regression_tomorrowMIA @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 3.88 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
Under a run separates his 3.88 ERA from a 4.8 xERA, and with a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.7% barrel rate, the contact quality isn't clean in either direction. Reads like normal season variance rather than a number about to move hard either way.
regression_watchSF @ TEX
San Francisco Giants are 10-19 in one-run games (.345 win%)
Flip side of the same coin — a .345 win rate in one-run games, 10-19, is unusually low, and that stuff tends to even out too. San Francisco's record might be selling this team a little short.
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
A .655 win rate in one-run games, 19-10, is the kind of number that tends to drift back toward .500 over a full season. Philadelphia's overall record is leaning on some of that.
regression_tomorrowDET @ SEA
Emerson Hancock: 3.26 ERA vs 4.16 xERA
Emerson Hancock's 3.26 ERA is getting real help on balls in play — .217 against an expected .249, a 32-point cushion. A 43.9 percent hard-hit rate says the contact he's allowing is firmer than that number lets on. Cushions like that tend to shrink, and Detroit's in town tomorrow to test it.
return_watchNYM — return listed 8/8
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/8 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
beneficiaryTOR @ HOU
Ernie Clement (.733 vs RHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight
Ernie Clement gets the start at second for Toronto with Sosa banged up, and it's a fit that works for him — a .733 OPS against right-handers over 302 at-bats, right at his .729 season mark, against Houston right-hander Cristian Javier tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowLAD @ CHC
Javier Assad: 3.75 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Modest gap between his 3.75 ERA and 4.58 xERA, but the 45.8% hard-hit rate is the number that jumps out regardless of what the ERA says. That's a lot of loud contact for someone who's kept his actual runs allowed in check so far.
beneficiarySTL @ NYY
Jose Fermin (.564 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
Fermin's only in the lineup because Urias has been dealing with an elbow issue the last four days, and the matchup he walks into isn't an easy one either — .564 against right-handers, and Schlittler's exactly that from the 8th spot. Playing time without a favorable matchup to go with it.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
cut_listSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 6th for SD — 0.635 OPS, 0.237 AVG from the 6-hole.
cut_listSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.642 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 6-hole.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/10
Nick Mears
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/10
Kris Bubic
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, elbow) — 4.11 ERA this season.
cut_listNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Still hitting 5th for NYY — 0.653 OPS, 0.230 AVG from the 5-hole.
first_inningTB @ COL
TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Tampa Bay's bats have produced one first-inning run in their last ten games, but Lorenzen's the one they're facing tonight, and his own first-inning number is soft — 5.73 ERA, .298 against. Seymour's been the opposite in his own first innings, 1.29 ERA and .130 against, which points the other way for Colorado's half of the inning.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
first_inningSTL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York's own bats have produced a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, and it's not one-sided — Schlittler's been excellent in his own first innings this year at .183 against, while McGreevy sits at a respectable .260 himself. Both halves of that opening frame lean quiet, and the board's pricing the under as the favorite here.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningTOR @ HOU
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Toronto's own bats have gone quiet early, just one first-inning run in their last ten games. But Bieber's the one on the mound for them tonight, and his own first-inning number is ugly — 10.80 ERA, .321 against — so whatever Toronto isn't doing at the plate early, Houston's hitters have had real success doing against their starter specifically.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningWSH @ PHI
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Washington's bats have scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games, and Nola himself has held hitters to a .235 average in his own first innings this season. Two separate reasons pointing the same way for Washington's half of the inning, even if the game's overall first-inning number also depends on what Philly's lineup does against whoever starts for Washington.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Rangers ML -135
MLB · 5-1
L
Brewers ML -156
MLB · 4-3
L
Yankees -1.5 -106
MLB · 13-7
L
Astros ML -143
MLB · 3-1
W
Cubs ML +109
MLB · 5-10
L
Nationals ML +133
MLB · 3-6
L
Rockies +1.5 +103
MLB · 13-9
L
Padres ML -105
MLB · 1-5

Props

W
Aaron Nola · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 6
L
Andrew Alvarez · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 19
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Bubba Chandler · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 4
L
Cal Quantrill · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 18
L
Cam Schlittler · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 6
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Corbin Carroll · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Cristian Javier · under
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 18
L
Daniel Susac · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Tovar · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 4
L
George Springer · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Ian Seymour · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 7
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Jeremy Pena · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Jeremy Pena · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Joc Pederson · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 2
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Manny Machado · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Matthew Boyd · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 20
W
Michael King · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 5
L
Michael McGreevy · under
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 5
W
Mookie Betts · under
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Seiya Suzuki · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Trea Turner · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Willi Castro · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Wyatt Langford · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Yainer Diaz · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0