Sports Picks Archive — Monday, August 3, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -106

First pitch of a nine-game homestand in the Bronx, and the Cardinals roll in for the opener on a warm night with the wind nudging out toward center field. The Yankees just spent a week in Chicago winning games two runs at a time — the rotation dragging a sleepwalking lineup to six wins in ten — and now they hand the ball to Cam Schlittler, the best thing they have going, against a St. Louis club that has dropped seven of ten and spent deadline week selling. The mismatch on the mound is the widest on this slate. Schlittler is 10-6 with a 2.04, striking out more than a batter an inning, holding lefties and righties alike under .200 with a fastball that sits near 98 — and he draws a Cardinals lineup scoring under three runs a game for two weeks with the top of the order ice cold. Michael McGreevy is the other side of the coin: a low-90s four-seamer that gets hit hard — over 42 percent hard contact allowed this season — a whiff rate that has been shrinking for a month, and a last start in which the Cubs ran him out of the game in the second inning. Now he gets Yankee Stadium with seven left-handed bats and a switch-hitter stacked in front of that short porch, including Luis Garcia Jr., who arrived from Washington carrying a .954 OPS over his last two weeks and slots straight into the three-hole, and Spencer Jones, who has three homers in a week with everything screaming off his bat. Here's the honest tension: the Yankees scored exactly two runs in three straight games, Judge and Bellinger are still watching, and Schlittler has been merely good at home rather than untouchable — that's why I'm not laying the full freight on a moneyline that has climbed all day. But those two-run nights came against real pitching, and tonight is the softest arm this lineup has seen in weeks. Behind McGreevy, St. Louis is thin — JoJo Romero is gone to Milwaukee, the trusted late-inning arms all worked yesterday, and the long relief just got scored on twice in Toronto. If McGreevy is short again, the Cardinals are patching six innings on the road in a hitter's park. At a shade under even money, I'll take the Yankees to win this one by more than a run. Yankees -1.5.

The mismatch on the mound is the widest on this slate. Schlittler is 10-6 with a 2.04, striking out more than a batter an inning, holding lefties and righties alike under .200 with a fastball that sits near 98 — and he draws a Cardinals lineup scoring under three runs a game for two weeks with the top of the order ice cold. Michael McGreevy is the other side of the coin: a low-90s four-seamer that gets hit hard — over 42 percent hard contact allowed this season — a whiff rate that has been shrinking for a month, and a last start in which the Cubs ran him out of the game in the second inning. Now he gets Yankee Stadium with seven left-handed bats and a switch-hitter stacked in front of that short porch, including Luis Garcia Jr., who arrived from Washington carrying a .954 OPS over his last two weeks and slots straight into the three-hole, and Spencer Jones, who has three homers in a week with everything screaming off his bat.

Here's the honest tension: the Yankees scored exactly two runs in three straight games, Judge and Bellinger are still watching, and Schlittler has been merely good at home rather than untouchable — that's why I'm not laying the full freight on a moneyline that has climbed all day. But those two-run nights came against real pitching, and tonight is the softest arm this lineup has seen in weeks. Behind McGreevy, St. Louis is thin — JoJo Romero is gone to Milwaukee, the trusted late-inning arms all worked yesterday, and the long relief just got scored on twice in Toronto. If McGreevy is short again, the Cardinals are patching six innings on the road in a hitter's park. At a shade under even money, I'll take the Yankees to win this one by more than a run. Yankees -1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +133

Deadline day in South Philadelphia, and the bell rang forty minutes before first pitch. The Phillies spent it buying — Luis Arraez, Brooks Raley, Caleb Kilian, reinforcements for a club that thinks it's still chasing Atlanta. The Nationals spent it selling, shipping Luis García Jr. to the Bronx this morning on the heels of five straight losses. On paper that's a mismatch of intentions. On the board it's Aaron Nola at -161, and that's where I stop nodding along. Nola at home this season is a problem the Phillies haven't solved: an ERA north of 6.5 at Citizens Bank Park against 4.76 everywhere else, and the team has lost his last six starts outright. Left-handed hitters are batting .283 with an .890 OPS and 16 home runs against him, and Washington answered tonight by stacking seven lefty bats plus two switch hitters. James Wood and CJ Abrams both slug near a thousand against right-handed pitching, and they feast on exactly what gets Nola hurt — hitters are batting .333 against his four-seamer and .366 against the sinker, with whiff rates barely into double digits on both. In a bandbox at 82 degrees with the wind blowing out to center, that's a dangerous combination for a pitcher whose barrel rate is among the worst of his career. The honest risk sits on Washington's side of the mound: Andrew Alvarez is a call-up lefty who has completed five innings once in his last six starts, and behind him is a patched-together pen. But that pen is rested — nobody has worked back-to-back days, and Trevor Williams is stretched out past sixty pitches for bulk relief. Meanwhile the Phillies' lineup against a southpaw runs shallow fast: Marsh sits, and the bottom three of Sosa, Hill, and Stubbs have been a ghost town for two weeks. A 28-27 home team that's 3-7 in its last ten, laying -161 behind its most vulnerable starter, against a road club that's 32-24 away from home — this number opened +144 this morning and has already been bet down to +133. I'll take what's left of the plus money before it's gone. Nationals moneyline, +133.

Nola at home this season is a problem the Phillies haven't solved: an ERA north of 6.5 at Citizens Bank Park against 4.76 everywhere else, and the team has lost his last six starts outright. Left-handed hitters are batting .283 with an .890 OPS and 16 home runs against him, and Washington answered tonight by stacking seven lefty bats plus two switch hitters. James Wood and CJ Abrams both slug near a thousand against right-handed pitching, and they feast on exactly what gets Nola hurt — hitters are batting .333 against his four-seamer and .366 against the sinker, with whiff rates barely into double digits on both. In a bandbox at 82 degrees with the wind blowing out to center, that's a dangerous combination for a pitcher whose barrel rate is among the worst of his career.

The honest risk sits on Washington's side of the mound: Andrew Alvarez is a call-up lefty who has completed five innings once in his last six starts, and behind him is a patched-together pen. But that pen is rested — nobody has worked back-to-back days, and Trevor Williams is stretched out past sixty pitches for bulk relief. Meanwhile the Phillies' lineup against a southpaw runs shallow fast: Marsh sits, and the bottom three of Sosa, Hill, and Stubbs have been a ghost town for two weeks. A 28-27 home team that's 3-7 in its last ten, laying -161 behind its most vulnerable starter, against a road club that's 32-24 away from home — this number opened +144 this morning and has already been bet down to +133. I'll take what's left of the plus money before it's gone. Nationals moneyline, +133.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· -156

Deadline day in Milwaukee, and the roof is closed on a first-place club that spent the afternoon getting better — Dustin May and Antonio Senzatela walk in the door just as the Brewers open a seven-game homestand at 69-42, best record in the National League. The team in the other dugout is the strangest kind of underdog: the Pirates have beaten Milwaukee five times in six tries this season, and that head-to-head is doing a lot of work holding this price where it is, because almost nothing else about Pittsburgh's last two weeks should. Here's what the matchup actually looks like tonight. Bubba Chandler brings real velocity, sitting 98 and change, and he's death on right-handed bats — but Milwaukee is stacking five lefties on him, and left-handers are where he bleeds: eight homers and a near-.800 OPS against this year. Jake Bauers is the hottest hitter on either roster, Brice Turang is a different animal in this building, and when Chandler leaves — he averages barely five innings, and the walks come in bunches — he hands the middle innings to a Pittsburgh pen that just absorbed heavy work covering Mitch Keller's two-inning start Sunday. Luke Weaver and Camilo Doval fix the ninth inning; they don't fix the fifth. On the other side, Brandon Sproat is nobody's ace, but look at what he's facing: no Oneil Cruz, no Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds nine for his last fifty-six, Esmerlyn Valdez swinging through a third of what he sees. This Pirates offense has scraped together three and a half runs a game on this road trip while giving up nearly six, and Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are both rested behind Sproat with Sunday off. The five-and-one season series is the trap here, and I respect it enough to have stared at it twice. But most of that damage came from a different Pittsburgh roster — Cruz played the April games, and that July weekend at PNC came before the quad strain thinned this lineup to the bone. Tonight's version is the weakest batting order the Pirates have run out all year, on the road, on zero rest, against the best home team in the league with an elite back of the bullpen. The number has drifted toward Milwaukee all day and I'm not fighting the direction, just the hesitation. Give me the Brewers.

Here's what the matchup actually looks like tonight. Bubba Chandler brings real velocity, sitting 98 and change, and he's death on right-handed bats — but Milwaukee is stacking five lefties on him, and left-handers are where he bleeds: eight homers and a near-.800 OPS against this year. Jake Bauers is the hottest hitter on either roster, Brice Turang is a different animal in this building, and when Chandler leaves — he averages barely five innings, and the walks come in bunches — he hands the middle innings to a Pittsburgh pen that just absorbed heavy work covering Mitch Keller's two-inning start Sunday. Luke Weaver and Camilo Doval fix the ninth inning; they don't fix the fifth. On the other side, Brandon Sproat is nobody's ace, but look at what he's facing: no Oneil Cruz, no Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds nine for his last fifty-six, Esmerlyn Valdez swinging through a third of what he sees. This Pirates offense has scraped together three and a half runs a game on this road trip while giving up nearly six, and Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are both rested behind Sproat with Sunday off.

The five-and-one season series is the trap here, and I respect it enough to have stared at it twice. But most of that damage came from a different Pittsburgh roster — Cruz played the April games, and that July weekend at PNC came before the quad strain thinned this lineup to the bone. Tonight's version is the weakest batting order the Pirates have run out all year, on the road, on zero rest, against the best home team in the league with an elite back of the bullpen. The number has drifted toward Milwaukee all day and I'm not fighting the direction, just the hesitation. Give me the Brewers.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -135

Deadline day in Arlington, the roof closed at Globe Life, and two clubs arriving from opposite directions — Texas limping home off five straight losses and a sweep in Houston, still just two and a half back in the West, while San Francisco rolls into town hours after the front office finished stripping the roster for parts. Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, Luis Arraez to Philadelphia, the back end of the bullpen dealt away. The Giants that take the field tonight are not the Giants of last week. Logan Webb is the best pitcher in this game and it isn't close — that's the entire case for San Francisco at plus money, and it's a real one. He's smothered Texas in his career, he pounds the bottom of an order into the ground, and this Rangers bottom third has been an out machine for weeks. But look at what surrounds Webb tonight: a lineup where Devers and Susac are flanked by call-up types in the middle of a pennant-less August, a defense that has booted 74 balls behind a ground-ball pitcher, and a bullpen that lost its closer at the deadline after running six arms out on back-to-back days in San Diego. The Giants have played three straight one-run road games and lost them all the same way — hang around, hand it to the pen, watch it slip away late. Texas has its own problems. The bats went quiet through Tampa and Houston, and Cal Quantrill rarely sees the sixth inning. But he's home, Seager is back in the three-hole, and the division fight is still alive — which is more than the visitors can say about anything. The Rangers are 19-12 in one-run games; the Giants are 10-19, and that gap got wider today when the ninth inning left town in a trade. Webb keeps this close into the seventh, the last six outs decide it, and only one of these teams still has a bullpen built to finish. Give me the Rangers at -135.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -143

Deadline day in Houston, the roof is closed at Daikin Park, and the hottest team in baseball opens a series against a club that spent the afternoon selling. Toronto shipped Daulton Varsho to these very Astros hours before first pitch — he bats cleanup tonight against his old teammates — and sent Jeff Hoffman, a key late-inning arm, to Minnesota. Houston has won six straight, eleven of twelve, and Yordan Alvarez is chasing a Triple Crown in front of a crowd that's already chanting for him. Shane Bieber walks into that fire. The name still carries Cy Young weight, but the profile doesn't: right-handed hitters are batting .356 with a 1.033 OPS against him this season, nearly half the contact he allows is hard, and his last time out he recorded two outs, walked six, and was gone before the first inning ended. Houston stacks right-handed bats — Peña, Paredes, Walker, Altuve, Diaz — in a park where the Crawford Boxes sit 315 feet away in left. Peña is hitting .418 over the last two weeks, Alvarez .404, and both are dramatically better at home. This lineup runs directly into everything Bieber can no longer hide. The wrinkle that keeps this from being a runaway price is Cristian Javier, still building innings back from shoulder trouble, which means Houston's bullpen — worked hard three straight days — carries a heavy load tonight. That's exactly why I want the moneyline and not the run line: this can be a 7-5 win as easily as a 7-2 one. But Toronto is scoring barely three runs a game over the last two weeks, its closer needed 31 pitches to blow the ninth yesterday, its bullpen got thinner this afternoon, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing through a sore hamstring. One club is rolling with the bats to punish a fading starter; the other can't score and just held a fire sale. I'll pay the number. Astros moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Dodgers· +109

August baseball at Wrigley, flags pointing back toward home plate, and the team limping through the gates is the one laying the price. The Dodgers roll into town off a home sweep at the hands of the Red Sox — three straight losses, five runs a game allowed over the last two weeks — while the Cubs just spent their weekend in a rock fight with the Yankees, dropping two of three but giving up exactly two runs a night. It's lefty on lefty, Justin Wrobleski against Matthew Boyd, and the board has drifted toward Los Angeles all day, from -120 this morning to -131 by evening. That drift is what I want to stand against. Wrobleski's 11-2 with a 2.88 gleams, but the shine has a cost underneath: hitters are squaring him up at a 43 percent hard-hit clip, Seattle took him deep four times in his last start, and the underlying contact says he's been living closer to a four-run pitcher all summer — a fly-ball arm walking into a lineup that's swinging it. Boyd's ledger reads quieter and better: seven shutout innings in St. Louis last time out, one earned run over his last fourteen frames, and years of receipts against this exact Dodgers core — Freeman is 1-for-11 with seven strikeouts against him, Ohtani under .200, Edman 1-for-11. With Muncy on the bench against the lefty and the catching spot handed to Eliezer Alfonzo, the bottom of the Dodgers order thins out fast. The Cubs counter with the hotter hands up and down the card: Bregman at .429 over the week, Hoerner homering, Suzuki locked in, and Crow-Armstrong a different animal under the Wrigley lights. Then there's everything after the starters, which is where this game tilts. The Dodgers' bullpen just absorbed fifteen innings over three games with Brock Stewart and Will Klein freshly down and Blake Treinen still out; the Cubs' pen worked eight, nobody on consecutive days, and Clay Holmes walked in the door at the deadline. With Will Smith and now Dalton Rushing both on the injured list, Alfonzo catches tonight — and this Cubs team runs, so expect Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner to test that arm early and often. A 63-49 club at home, the fresher staff, a starter who owns the matchup, and plus money against a team that's lost three straight? I'll take the Cubs at +109 and let the market keep paying for the name on the road jersey.

Wrobleski's 11-2 with a 2.88 gleams, but the shine has a cost underneath: hitters are squaring him up at a 43 percent hard-hit clip, Seattle took him deep four times in his last start, and the underlying contact says he's been living closer to a four-run pitcher all summer — a fly-ball arm walking into a lineup that's swinging it. Boyd's ledger reads quieter and better: seven shutout innings in St. Louis last time out, one earned run over his last fourteen frames, and years of receipts against this exact Dodgers core — Freeman is 1-for-11 with seven strikeouts against him, Ohtani under .200, Edman 1-for-11. With Muncy on the bench against the lefty and the catching spot handed to Eliezer Alfonzo, the bottom of the Dodgers order thins out fast. The Cubs counter with the hotter hands up and down the card: Bregman at .429 over the week, Hoerner homering, Suzuki locked in, and Crow-Armstrong a different animal under the Wrigley lights.

Then there's everything after the starters, which is where this game tilts. The Dodgers' bullpen just absorbed fifteen innings over three games with Brock Stewart and Will Klein freshly down and Blake Treinen still out; the Cubs' pen worked eight, nobody on consecutive days, and Clay Holmes walked in the door at the deadline. With Will Smith and now Dalton Rushing both on the injured list, Alfonzo catches tonight — and this Cubs team runs, so expect Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner to test that arm early and often. A 63-49 club at home, the fresher staff, a starter who owns the matchup, and plus money against a team that's lost three straight? I'll take the Cubs at +109 and let the market keep paying for the name on the road jersey.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· +103

It's deadline Monday at 20th and Blake, a scorching Denver evening, and both clubhouses spent the afternoon saying goodbyes. The Rockies swept Kansas City behind Kyle Freeland's first career complete game, then watched the front office deal Brenton Doyle and Antonio Senzatela before the buzzer. The Rays roll in as the American League's top seed, fresh off getting thumped at home by the White Sox, opening a nine-game road trip at altitude. The board had this Rays -160 in the morning; it's -191 now. That move is about the deadline story — buyers versus sellers — more than it's about tonight's nine innings. And tonight's nine innings look messier than the price. Ian Seymour has been a real find for Tampa, but he's a fly-ball lefty living off a changeup and a sweeper, working at 91 with the fastball, and he hasn't finished a fourth inning in either of his last two starts. Bring that profile to the biggest outfield in baseball at 5,280 feet, then hand the middle innings to a relief corps that covered ten frames over the weekend, and the fifth through eighth get uncomfortable in a hurry. The other dugout is the opposite picture: nobody in the Colorado bullpen threw a pitch yesterday because Freeland went all nine, and the top of the order is scalding — Cole Carrigg is hitting .371 at home, Hunter Goodman has six homers in his last fifteen days, and Kyle Karros is four for his last eight. Here's the honest part: Michael Lorenzen at Coors has been rough, and Tampa stacks five left-handed bats against a righty who's been hammered by lefties all year — that's exactly why I'm not taking Colorado to win it outright. But the Rays are under .500 on the road, they've scored two and a half runs a game over their last ten, tonight's five-through-nine includes a catcher just called up from Double-A, and the wind is blowing in from center, which keeps this from becoming the usual Coors track meet. Tight game, tired visiting middle relief, rested home bullpen, and plus money on a run and a half of cushion. Give me the Rockies plus a run and a half and I'll live with the ninth-inning sweat.

And tonight's nine innings look messier than the price. Ian Seymour has been a real find for Tampa, but he's a fly-ball lefty living off a changeup and a sweeper, working at 91 with the fastball, and he hasn't finished a fourth inning in either of his last two starts. Bring that profile to the biggest outfield in baseball at 5,280 feet, then hand the middle innings to a relief corps that covered ten frames over the weekend, and the fifth through eighth get uncomfortable in a hurry. The other dugout is the opposite picture: nobody in the Colorado bullpen threw a pitch yesterday because Freeland went all nine, and the top of the order is scalding — Cole Carrigg is hitting .371 at home, Hunter Goodman has six homers in his last fifteen days, and Kyle Karros is four for his last eight.

Here's the honest part: Michael Lorenzen at Coors has been rough, and Tampa stacks five left-handed bats against a righty who's been hammered by lefties all year — that's exactly why I'm not taking Colorado to win it outright. But the Rays are under .500 on the road, they've scored two and a half runs a game over their last ten, tonight's five-through-nine includes a catcher just called up from Double-A, and the wind is blowing in from center, which keeps this from becoming the usual Coors track meet. Tight game, tired visiting middle relief, rested home bullpen, and plus money on a run and a half of cushion. Give me the Rockies plus a run and a half and I'll live with the ninth-inning sweat.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· -105

The roof is sealed at Chase Field with the desert pushing 111 outside, the deadline dust is still settling on both clubhouses, and two NL West rivals separated by one game in the wild-card race open a four-game series that feels a lot bigger than an early-August Monday. San Diego arrives having won eight of nine, playing the kind of complete baseball that made the front office buyers all week. Arizona comes home off a road trip that ended with Gavin Williams carrying a perfect game into the sixth against them, a shutout loss, and a manager who has been holding team meetings and shuffling bullpen roles in real time. The Padres didn't just line up Michael King for this one — they held him back a day to make sure he'd have it, and I understand why. King has owned this Arizona lineup his whole career, held them to a run over six innings in July, and he catches them at the right moment: Ketel Marte is under .200 for two weeks and not hitting anything hard, Gabriel Moreno is 3 for his last 26, and the bottom third of that order has been giving away at-bats for days. Brandon Pfaadt is the feel-good story on the other side — the team hasn't lost with him on the mound since his recall — but look at how that run is built: single-digit strikeout totals, a parade of balls in play, and worse results in this ballpark than anywhere else. Now he draws the hottest lineup in baseball. Ty France and Jackson Merrill are both hitting close to .400 over two weeks, Luis Rengifo has joined them, Tatis is squaring everything up, and Manny Machado is a career .353 hitter against Pfaadt with power. A contact pitcher against a lineup barreling everything is a hard way to keep a streak alive. Then there's the ninth inning, where these teams are living in different worlds. Arizona just pulled Paul Sewald from the closer role after the second half blew up on him, and Torey Lovullo is openly mixing and matching until someone grabs the job. San Diego rested Mason Miller on Sunday specifically so he'd be ready for this series, and he's been the best reliever in the sport. In a game the market prices as a coin flip, one team knows exactly how the last six outs go and the other is figuring it out night by night. At a nickel over even money, with the hotter lineup, the rested ace, and the settled endgame, I'll take the Padres.

The Padres didn't just line up Michael King for this one — they held him back a day to make sure he'd have it, and I understand why. King has owned this Arizona lineup his whole career, held them to a run over six innings in July, and he catches them at the right moment: Ketel Marte is under .200 for two weeks and not hitting anything hard, Gabriel Moreno is 3 for his last 26, and the bottom third of that order has been giving away at-bats for days. Brandon Pfaadt is the feel-good story on the other side — the team hasn't lost with him on the mound since his recall — but look at how that run is built: single-digit strikeout totals, a parade of balls in play, and worse results in this ballpark than anywhere else. Now he draws the hottest lineup in baseball. Ty France and Jackson Merrill are both hitting close to .400 over two weeks, Luis Rengifo has joined them, Tatis is squaring everything up, and Manny Machado is a career .353 hitter against Pfaadt with power. A contact pitcher against a lineup barreling everything is a hard way to keep a streak alive.

Then there's the ninth inning, where these teams are living in different worlds. Arizona just pulled Paul Sewald from the closer role after the second half blew up on him, and Torey Lovullo is openly mixing and matching until someone grabs the job. San Diego rested Mason Miller on Sunday specifically so he'd be ready for this series, and he's been the best reliever in the sport. In a game the market prices as a coin flip, one team knows exactly how the last six outs go and the other is figuring it out night by night. At a nickel over even money, with the hotter lineup, the rested ace, and the settled endgame, I'll take the Padres.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

CAM SCHLITTLERK'S OVER 6.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -148

Schlittler's climbing into another gear right now, not settling into one. His whiff rate has jumped to 31 and then 35 percent over his last two starts, the fastball is sitting late-90s, and the curveball is getting swung through nearly half the time it's thrown. He's cleared seven strikeouts in six of his last eight turns. St. Louis walks into this one buried — Wetherholt, Nootbaar, Church, Crooks are all deep in miserable stretches at the plate — and this pitcher has handled both lefties and righties on this roster to sub-.200 batting averages this year. A cold lineup running into a swing-and-miss arm that's getting better, not worse. I want the strikeouts.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL MCGREEVYK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -144

McGreevy's swing-and-miss stuff has been evaporating start to start — his whiff rate has fallen from the low-20s down to single digits and back to the low-teens over his last five outings, and his most recent start didn't survive the second inning. His fastball and cutter are both getting squared up hard right now, the cutter in particular getting hit for real damage. When hitters are putting bat on ball instead of missing it, the punchouts dry up, and he's been under this number in six of his last eight starts. I don't see a reason that changes tonight against a Yankees lineup that's still plenty capable even without Judge and Bellinger in it.

GARY'S PICK

AARON NOLAPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +115

Nola's been a different pitcher walking out of his own bullpen door this year — 6.70 at Citizens Bank Park against 4.76 everywhere else, and that split isn't noise at this point, it's a full season of home starts. He's getting hit hard doing it too, over 40% hard-contact and a double-digit barrel rate, both marks that say hitters are finding the barrel more than the ERA even suggests. Now he walks into a Washington lineup that's about as left-handed as they come — Wood, Ortiz, Tena, Abrams, Lile, Vivas all swinging from that side — and lefties have hit .283 with 16 home runs against him this year. He's allowed six or more hits in four of his last six starts. Home mound, hard contact, a lineup built to exploit his one real weakness. I'll take the over on the hits at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW ALVAREZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -122

This one's about pattern, not price. Alvarez has cleared five innings exactly once in his last eight starts — everything else has been right around four, four-and-a-third. He was just recalled from Rochester today, he's a young lefty still finding his rhythm, and Washington's whole staff has been in bullpen-game mode this stretch. There's no reason to think tonight looks different than the last six weeks of his workload. When a starter has been this automatic about getting pulled around the same number of outs start after start, I'm not fighting it just because the number's short.

GARY'S PICK

NICK GONZALESH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +106

Gonzales is the hottest hitter on this roster right now — 20 hits in his last 15 games, a .328 average, and he's been getting on base or driving somebody in almost every night. He's a right-handed bat facing a right-hander in Sproat who's actually been more hittable against righties than lefties this year, a 5.05 ERA that isn't hiding anything. This is a bat in rhythm against a pitcher who hasn't figured out how to keep anyone off the barrel. One and a half combined hits, runs, and RBIs is a low bar for where Gonzales is standing right now.

GARY'S PICK

BUBBA CHANDLERPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -115

Chandler's been touched up for extra-base contact by left-handed hitters all year, and Milwaukee is sending out a lineup with five lefty bats tonight. He's allowed at least five hits in five of his last six outings, and that's before accounting for a home lineup that's the best offense he's faced in that stretch. He's a converted reliever still searching for consistency deep into starts, and this Brewers order is built to lean on exactly the weakness he has against left-handed contact.

GARY'S PICK

CAL QUANTRILLPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -165

Quantrill just hasn't been going deep into games this year. Look at his last six turns — outside of one outing against Houston, he hasn't cleared six innings once, and more often than not he's coming out somewhere in the fourth or fifth. That's a workload pattern, not a one-off bad week. I don't see a reason it changes tonight against a Giants lineup that's actually been scoring at a decent clip lately even while losing. The number isn't cheap, but the pattern behind it is about as consistent as these things get.

GARY'S PICK

RAFAEL DEVERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +130

Devers is a left-handed bat walking into about the cleanest matchup on this board. Quantrill has been genuinely bad against lefties all season — real damage allowed, homers included, over a decent chunk of at-bats. Devers meanwhile is doing exactly what he does against right-handed pitching right now, hitting well over .900 OPS with three homers in his last stretch. I don't need him to leave the yard, just one extra-base knock from a hot bat against a pitcher with a specific, exploitable hole on that side. Plus money for that combination is where I want to be.

GARY'S PICK

MOOKIE BETTSTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -160

Betts has been under .230 for both his last week and his last two weeks — this isn't a bad series, it's a sustained stretch. He's cleared a second base or more in only two of his last fifteen games. That's not a one-off cold night I'm betting will continue, it's a pattern that's held across multiple looks already, and I don't see the specific trigger for it to flip tonight.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW BOYDPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -128

Boyd's last two starts both went a full seven innings, and five of his last six have cleared six. He's working efficiently right now — getting outs on quick, manageable contact rather than grinding through deep counts chasing strikeouts — and that's exactly the kind of start that lets a pitcher work deep into a game.

GARY'S PICK

CRISTIAN JAVIERPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBHouston Astros· +120

Javier made one start in over three months before this one, and in his four turns back he hasn't finished the fifth inning a single time — 3.0, 1.0, 3.2, 4.2 innings, with a 1.83 WHIP to go with it. A pitcher that fresh off a long layoff isn't getting stretched against a lineup scoring six a game right now, and Houston's bullpen is deep enough that there's no reason to push him. The market still leans over here, which doesn't match anything about how his season has actually gone. I'll take the under at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

JEREMY PENATOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· +100

Pena is running a .418 average and a 1.33 OPS with seven home runs over his last fifteen games — this is as hot as a hitter gets. He hits right-handed pitching well, he's been better at home than on the road, and his early looks against tonight's starter have gone his way too. He's leading off against a pitcher who just walked six men and didn't survive the first inning of his last start. Two total bases from a hitter this locked in shouldn't be a coin flip, but that's the price I'm getting.

GARY'S PICK

IAN SEYMOURPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 5.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -134

Seymour has pitched better than his ERA all season — his expected number sits a full run lower, the kind of gap that tends to close in the pitcher's favor. The matchup sets up for him too: once both Colorado switch-hitters flip to the right side against a lefty, six of the nine hitters he'll see tonight are batting from the side he's dominated all year, holding right-handers under .200. His changeup alone is missing bats at a forty percent rate. Coors is new ground for him and I won't pretend the building hasn't humbled better pitchers, but a guy outperforming his own ERA against the exact side of the plate he's about to face is live to keep the hit total down even there.

GARY'S PICK

EZEQUIEL TOVARHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +120

Tovar's ice cold — a hit in only a third of his games the last couple weeks and an average sitting around .115 over that stretch — and tonight the matchup doesn't throw him a rope either. Seymour has been one of the toughest left-handers in the league on right-handed hitters this season, holding them under .200. When a hitter is struggling this badly and lines up against the exact side of the plate the pitcher has owned all year, betting the zero is the higher-probability read, and it still pays a little on top.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL KINGK'S OVER 4.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +110

Michael King strikes out just under five hitters a start on the season, and this line is asking me to bet under a number he clears more often than not. His last two times out he's missed more bats than usual, and the stuff is trending the right way late in the summer. He faced this Arizona club once already this year and punched out four of them in six innings — he's dominated the Diamondbacks for his career. San Diego bumped his turn back a few days so he'd be fresh for this series, and not one hitter in tonight's Arizona lineup has ever stood in against him. Add in a couple of cold bats in the middle of that order and I like the over on a number that sits right around what he does most nights, at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

TY FRANCETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +110

Ty France is running about a hundred points of OPS over his season number across his last two weeks, with four home runs in that stretch, and he's doing his damage against right-handed pitching — exactly what he's facing tonight. He's been squaring the ball up hard and rarely missing lately. He's cleared a total base and a half in eleven of his last fifteen games. A hitter swinging it this well shouldn't be plus money to get to two total bases, and I'm taking that number.

THE LONG SHOT

SHOHEI OHTANIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +369

Ohtani is doing something absurd right now — nine hits in his last eighteen at-bats with two home runs in that stretch, and an average exit velocity near 98 miles an hour on his recent contact. That is not a hot week, that is a hitter squaring up everything he sees. He has also been one of his better versions against left-handed pitching this season, well over .900 OPS with double-digit home runs in that split, which matters tonight against a lefty. Boyd leans on his four-seamer almost half the time and hitters have been handling it well all year, which is not what you want from your most-used pitch. The wind blowing in tonight will knock down a few fly balls that would otherwise carry, and that is worth respecting, but the exit velocity Ohtani is producing right now clears that kind of wind on contact alone. At plus money on a hitter this hot against a fastball he should feast on, I want this.

THE LONG SHOT

YORDAN ALVAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +240

Alvarez is the best hitter alive right now and he's been getting hotter, not cooling off, into August — a .404 average and four home runs over his last two weeks, and his numbers at home this season border on absurd. Bieber is exactly the pitcher you want to see across from him: a right-hander the league is punishing right now, and his last outing didn't survive the first inning. Put a locked-in Alvarez, at home, at night — his best split — across from a fastball that keeps landing over the plate and getting hit hard, and this price undersells how live it is.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL DEVERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +340

Devers has four home runs in his last fifteen games and he found the seats again just last night in the loss to San Diego, so the swing is very much alive right now. What actually sells me on tonight is the shape of the matchup underneath that streak. He's a completely different hitter against right-handed pitching this season, a .926 OPS and nineteen homers against righties compared to a .552 OPS against lefties, and Quantrill is a righty leaning heavily on a cutter he throws better than one time in four. That cutter has been hit hard all year, a .317 average and a .405 expected weighted on-base against it, right up there with the most hittable pitches in the league from any starter. There's no personal history between these two to lean on, but I don't need it — a right-handed power bat at the best form of his season running into a pitcher whose most-used secondary offering keeps getting squared up is enough for me. Best number on the board tonight, and I think it's fairly priced for how live this feels.

THE LONG SHOT

JEREMY PENAHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +600

Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Jeremy Peña — seven home runs in his last fifteen games and an OPS well over 1.300 in that stretch. That's not a hot game, that's a hot month. He's also a much better hitter at home and against right-handers, both boxes Bieber checks, and Bieber is walking people and leaving the ball out over the plate more than a former Cy Young winner should right now. Peña's chasing more than usual too, which tells me this is an aggressive, see-ball-hit-ball kind of hot — exactly the version of a hitter I want in a power spot like this, and at this price I don't need to be right often for it to pay.

THE LONG SHOT

JAKE BAUERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +420

Bauers is the hottest left-handed bat on this field right now — two home runs in his last week, and the contact quality behind it backs up the results, not just a couple of lucky fly balls. He handles right-handed pitching well over a full season, and Bubba Chandler is a right-hander with a real split problem: he's been considerably more hittable against lefties than righties all year, mostly in the power numbers. Chandler also tends to get pulled early once he starts laboring, so Bauers figures to see him more than once tonight before Pittsburgh turns to the bullpen. There's a wind blowing in from right field that works against pulled fly balls, and that's worth respecting, but a hitter this hot against a pitcher with this specific weakness is still worth the number here.

THE LONG SHOT

SEIYA SUZUKIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +420

Suzuki's swing has been the best version of itself all month — three home runs and a .969 OPS over his last two weeks, with the underlying contact backing it up rather than a string of bloops. He has also been a clearly better hitter against left-handed pitching than right-handed this year, both in average and in power, which lines up well against a lefty starter tonight. Wrobleski is walking into this one off a start where he allowed four home runs, and the pitches getting hurt hardest in his mix this season are his sinker and his curveball, not just mistakes left over the plate. Suzuki also does his best work at home, and Wrigley is home tonight. A hot hitter, a favorable matchup against the pitches he is about to see, and a starter who just had his worst home run outing of the year — that is worth paying plus-four-twenty for.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +260

Michael Lorenzen taking the mound at Coors is the headline here — an 8.34 ERA in ten starts in this building against 5.16 everywhere else, and his sinker and cutter are getting torched to the tune of a .38-plus expected wOBA all season. Caminero is the Rays bat with the profile to take advantage: 91 mph average exit velocity and three barrels in his last nineteen batted balls, with twenty-three home runs on the year against right-handed pitching alone. He also hits better at night, and first pitch is 8:40. Lorenzen's own park splits are about as loud a red flag as this sheet has, and Caminero's bat is loud enough to answer it.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON MERRILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +620

Jackson Merrill is the loudest story on this board. Over his last fifteen games he's hitting .396 with a 1.203 OPS and six home runs — that's a hitter who found something. He said a few weeks back that he'd gone back to video of his high school swing, trying to get back to being 'free and easy, hitting the ball everywhere,' and whatever clicked, it shows up in the swings now: 94.5 mph average exit velocity and three barreled balls in his last twenty in play. He's chasing more than I'd like outside the zone, but he's not missing the pitches he does chase. He draws Brandon Pfaadt tonight, and Pfaadt has a specific problem this year: seven home runs allowed to left-handed hitters in just 156 at-bats, an .807 OPS against, versus one home run and a .607 OPS against right-handers in 124 at-bats. That's a full season of a real split, not a small sample, and Merrill hits from the left side right into it. The roof's closed at Chase tonight so I'm not leaning on the ball carrying the way it does with it open, but the swing and the matchup both point the same direction. I'll take Merrill over 0.5 home runs at plus-620.

THE LONG SHOT

CJ ABRAMSHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +420

Abrams is running as hot as anybody in the league right now — eight home runs in his last fifteen days will do that to a price. But this isn't just a hot-hand bet. For the season he's a completely different hitter against right-handed pitching, and Aaron Nola gives him that look tonight. Nola at Citizens Bank Park has been a different pitcher than Nola on the road all year, and he's been leaking home runs in bunches across his last six starts. Abrams has already taken him deep once in a small sample, which is nice to know, but the real case is the season-long split meeting the park meeting the recent stretch of starts. Plus-four hundred for a right-handed power bat in that combination is a number I want.

THE LONG SHOT

JOC PEDERSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +470

Pederson's been one of the hottest bats in this lineup, three homers in his last week and four over his last fifteen games, with the slugging to match. The matchup lines up almost too cleanly with that form. He's an .864 OPS, nineteen-homer hitter against right-handed pitching this year and a much quieter .703 against lefties, and Webb throws right-handed. Webb's go-to pitch is his sinker, nearly a third of everything he throws, and it's also the pitch that's given him the most trouble all season, the highest expected weighted on-base against of anything in his arsenal. Pederson has hit .382 with a .765 slugging mark against sinkers specifically. That's his best pitch to hit lining up against the pitch Webb throws most and has had the least luck with. His own history against Webb personally is thin and unimpressive, but it's thirteen at-bats — I'll take the shape of tonight's matchup and the form he's carrying over a small sample working the other way.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +365

Nobody in this game is swinging it better than Lowe right now — an OPS over 1.000 for the week, and the exit velocity and barrel rate behind those swings say it's real, not just seeing-eye hits. He does real damage against the fastball, and Brandon Sproat is leaning on his four-seamer and cutter for close to half his pitches this year, with that cutter getting hit hard by pretty much everyone who's faced it. Sproat also walks a fair number of hitters, which usually means he's around the plate more than he'd like rather than nibbling corners. He's a lefty stepping into a wind blowing in from right field tonight, so conditions aren't perfect, but a bat this locked in against a pitcher leaking this much hard contact is a spot worth taking.

THE LONG SHOT

HUNTER GOODMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +300

Goodman is the hottest power bat in either lineup right now — six home runs in his last fifteen games on top of thirty-three for the season, and his OPS climbs past .930 both against lefties and after dark. Ian Seymour is left-handed and has allowed a homer in five of his last six starts, several of them early exits. Goodman's chasing more than he usually does lately, so the strikeouts will be in there too, but this is a hitter doing real damage when he connects, in the building that turns fly balls into homers.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +600

Crow-Armstrong's contact quality over the last two weeks is loud — north of ninety mile-an-hour average exit velocity and a barrel rate that stands out even in a small sample. He is also a considerably different hitter at night than during the day this season, close to two hundred points of OPS better under the lights, and this is a night game at Wrigley. The one thing working against him is that his power this year skews toward right-handed pitching more than left-handed, and Wrobleski throws left-handed. But Wrobleski's specific problem pitch has been his sinker, hitters are batting well over .350 against it, and that is a pitch Crow-Armstrong has handled about as well as anyone, slugging over .600 against it this season. I am betting the specific matchup over the general handedness split here, with a hot bat facing a pitcher who just gave up four home runs in his last time out.

THE LONG SHOT

JONATHAN ARANDAHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +440

Aranda hasn't run into one in his last fifteen games, but his expected slugging is sitting well above his actual slugging, which reads more like the ball finding gloves than the bat losing life — two barrels in his last sixteen batted balls back that up. He's left-handed against a right-hander tonight, and Lorenzen has been one of the more homer-prone pitchers in the league against lefties this year, a 1.019 OPS and twelve home runs allowed in 241 at-bats. Aranda's own career number against right-handed pitching, thirteen homers in 279 at-bats, matches that shape. I think tonight's the kind of spot where the recent drought breaks.

THE LONG SHOT

CORBIN CARROLLHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +450

Corbin Carroll's slash line the last two weeks won't grab anybody — .226 average, two home runs in fifty-three at-bats — but the contact underneath it is a lot louder than the results. His average exit velocity over that stretch is 97.1 mph with sixteen hard-hit balls in twenty-two balls in play, and he's chasing pitches out of the zone just 15% of the time. That's a hitter squaring the ball up and running into bad luck on where it's landing, not a cold bat. Michael King gets an extra day of rest tonight after his start got bumped from Sunday, and he did hold Arizona to one run over six innings the last time the teams met. But his season-long numbers tell a different story about right now — a 3.38 ERA against a 4.58 expected mark, and an expected weighted-on-base against him that's well above what his actual results show. Hitters have been squaring King up more than his line suggests, and Carroll is squaring everybody up right now. He's the shortest price on the board for a reason — I'll take him over 0.5 home runs at plus-450.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +325

The board already has Schwarber as the shortest price in the game and I'm not fighting that, I'm agreeing with it. He's been cold, and I'll say it plainly instead of dancing around it — this isn't a hot-streak pick. It's a pitch-type bet. Schwarber does more damage against a sinker than almost anyone in the league, and Andrew Alvarez lives off his sinker in the low nineties as a real part of his mix, not a show-me pitch. Cold stretches for a hitter with this much raw power tend to end against exactly the pitch he already crushes, and tonight he's getting a steady diet of it.

THE LONG SHOT

TEOSCAR HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +526

Hernandez has gone deep twice in his last seven games, and he is still putting together the kind of contact that produces home runs rather than empty singles. He already has a home run on his ledger against Boyd specifically, and the larger split favors him too — Boyd has allowed noticeably more power to right-handed hitters than left-handed ones this season, and Hernandez bats right-handed. He is not the hottest name on this board, but recent power, a track record against tonight's starter, and a real platoon edge together are enough for me to take a shot at plus-five-twenty-six.

THE LONG SHOT

GEORGE SPRINGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +460

Springer's barreling the ball again — the contact quality the last couple weeks is a clear step up from earlier in the year, and he's carrying a .990 OPS over his last fifteen games. His career numbers against Javier himself are nothing to write home about, but that's an eight-at-bat sample against a pitcher who looks nothing like the one who first faced him. Javier's working back from a shoulder issue and is leaning hard on a fastball that's gotten hit around all year, and fastball is the one pitch Springer has consistently done damage against. I'll take the recent form and the pitch-mix fit over a stale head-to-head number.

THE LONG SHOT

WILLI CASTROHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +565

Castro's the best value on the board relative to what he's actually doing right now — two home runs in his last week, including a 422-foot shot to center, and three barrels in his last ten batted balls. The board's pricing him like a guy who rarely connects, but he's gone deep in five of his last fifteen games. Switch-hitter, so he gets to choose his side against Seymour, and right now his bat is doing more than plus-565 is asking of it.

THE LONG SHOT

TREA TURNERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +600

Turner is the hottest bat anywhere in this lineup right now — four home runs in his last fifteen days and he was squaring up everything in the series finale at Baltimore. There's no real history between him and Alvarez to lean on either way, so I'm going with what's true about him right now instead of digging for a matchup story that isn't there. A right-handed bat seeing the ball this well, in his own ballpark, at plus-six hundred, is a price I'll take on form alone.

THE LONG SHOT

DANIEL SUSACHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +680

Susac is doing something all his own right now, three home runs in the last week alone and an OPS pushing 1.700 over that stretch. What makes me trust it is that his expected numbers on the season line up almost exactly with his actual numbers, which tells me this is legitimately hard contact and not a run of bloops finding grass. The one real caution is the handedness matchup. He's a right-handed hitter, and Quantrill has actually been tougher on right-handers than lefties this year, a .584 OPS allowed against .801 for lefties. That's a real factor working against this pick, and it's why it's not my top play tonight. But a catcher running this hot, with the underlying quality to back it up, is hard to leave off the board completely, and the price reflects the tougher matchup fairly. I'll ride the streak against the harder side of the platoon.

THE LONG SHOT

ESMERLYN VALDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +402

Valdez has a track record of doing real damage against sinkers when he sees them, and Brandon Sproat throws his sinker close to a quarter of the time — that's a specific enough matchup to matter, even allowing for a small sample. What keeps me from leaning harder here is that Valdez has gone quiet over the last week after an earlier hot stretch, and his power this season has leaned toward day games more than night games — this one's under the lights. I like the matchup enough to take a shot at this price, but it's a lighter touch than the other two swings I'm taking tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

KAZUMA OKAMOTOHR OVER 0.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +390

Okamoto's pop plays well against a fastball, and Javier still throws his four-seamer more than half the time even this early back from injury. Okamoto's been just as productive on the road as he has at home this season, so the trip to Houston doesn't worry me, and he already has a homer in his last week. Javier's a diminished arm right now trying to find his rhythm in real innings again — that's the kind of start that turns into a mistake pitch a middle-of-the-order bat like Okamoto can do something with.

THE LONG SHOT

MANNY MACHADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +496

Manny Machado's pop has been real the last two weeks — four home runs, an .872 OPS over his last fifty-seven at-bats, and three barreled balls in his last twenty in play, right there with Carroll's contact numbers. He's also had Brandon Pfaadt's number in his career, a 1.068 OPS with a home run in seventeen at-bats. The catch is Pfaadt's full season says something different about right-handed hitters as a group — one home run allowed to a righty all year in 124 at-bats. That's a lot more evidence than my seventeen at-bats of personal history with Machado, and it's pulling the other way. I'm backing the recent contact quality and the individual history over the seasonal platoon trend here, but with less conviction than the other two tonight. Machado over 0.5 home runs at plus-496.

THE LONG SHOT

JAMES WOODHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +450

I won't pretend Wood's swing has looked right the last couple weeks — it hasn't, and the batting line says so. But I'm not betting the last fifteen days, I'm betting what he does to right-handed pitching across a full season, which is twenty-one home runs in two hundred seventy-six at-bats, as good a rate as anyone in this lineup. Nola is walking into the building where his ERA runs almost two runs higher than it does anywhere else, and he's been giving up hard contact and homers all year regardless of opponent. A cold two weeks doesn't erase what Wood's shown he can do to exactly this look, and tonight Nola's the one bringing the risk, not Wood.

THE LONG SHOT

WYATT LANGFORDHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +600

The results haven't shown up for Langford this week, one homer and an average barely over .130 across his last seven games, but I'm looking past that line. His average exit velocity over that same stretch is sitting near 93 miles an hour, about as hard as anyone in this lineup has been hitting the ball, against only one barrel on seventeen balls in play — that's a hitter getting beat by bad luck, not bad swings. He's also a much better hitter against right-handed pitching this season, an .855 OPS and nine home runs against righties compared to .727 against lefties, and Webb is a right-hander who leans on his sinker more than any other pitch, a pitch Langford has hit .364 against with a .500 slugging mark. I think the quality of contact catches up to the results tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

YAINER DIAZHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +750

Yainer Diaz is running a five-hundred-plus average with two home runs over his last week, and he's an everyday presence in the middle of an Astros lineup that's won eleven of its last twelve. This price feels like it's pricing his season more than what he's actually doing right now. He's a right-handed bat against a right-hander who's letting righties tee off on him all year, in a park built for exactly this kind of contact. I'm not staking my night on it, but at this number it's a live share.

Research

153

CUT LISTTOR tonight
Shane Bieber
Starts tonight for TOR — 7.53 xERA behind a 5.75 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
Seven wins in his last eight starts, and unlike some win-loss numbers that ride on a hot lineup, this one's got real pitching behind it lately. The Dodgers are a legitimate test of whether that stretch holds up.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ PHI
Phillies 1-7 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts
Nola takes the ball and the Phillies have gone ice cold behind him — 1-7 in his last eight starts, six straight losses in that stretch. That's a real gap between one guy's own work and how the scoreboard's finishing, and it's fair to ask whether that's the bullpen, the bats, or just a bad run of luck.
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: 1.203 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill's doing damage right now — a 1.203 OPS over his last 53 plate appearances, more than half a run higher than what he's done all year. Sixteen homers on the season and he looks locked in at the plate.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Cristian Javier (RHP)
Lukes has hit right-handers all year (.785) and barely resembled a hitter against lefties (.359). He gets Javier, a righty, leading off tonight — that's the side of him that shows up.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENSD @ ARI
San Diego Padres pen: 18.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nine different arms over three days for that pen, and Morejon and Estrada both worked both of the last two days — I'd cross those two off for tonight. Add in Márquez's 5-inning, 70-pitch relief outing and Matsui's 3 innings on 49 pitches, and that's four of the six most-used arms already compromised heading into Arizona.
PLATOON EDGESF @ TEX
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Cal Quantrill (RHP), batting 6th
Gilbert's .774 against right-handers next to .089 against lefties isn't really a platoon split, it's two different hitters. Quantrill's a righty, so tonight he gets the version that can actually hit.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STREAKTOR @ HOU
HOU have won 6 straight
Houston's not just winning six straight, they're doing it by 22 runs combined — that's domination, not a lucky stretch. Toronto's catching them at about the worst possible time.
P team lost 3-1
PLATOON EDGESTL @ NYY
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Cam Schlittler (RHP)
Burleson hitting third against a right-hander is exactly the look I want for him — a .941 mark against that side isn't some small-sample number, that's 292 at-bats of real signal.
P 3-for-5, 12 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.330 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on one — 1.330 over his last 55 plate appearances, well above an already strong .904 for the year. Thirteen homers on the season and he's still trending up.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.322 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams has twenty-eight homers and is running a 1.322 OPS over his last two weeks. A 2.5 total-base number tonight looks conservative for where his bat's at.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Leadoff spot against a right-hander is Turang's best possible matchup — .916 against that side versus .588 the other way, and Chandler's exactly the pitcher type he wants to see.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .492 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Sproat
Reynolds is in a real slump — .492 over his last 56 plate appearances, well down from .832 on the season — and tonight's matchup doesn't help. Sproat's a righty, and that's been the tougher side of his split all year.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 6-2 vs Nationals this season
Philly's dominated this matchup, 6-2 with a 10-5 win last time out. Lopsided season series like this can be a real, repeatable matchup story, or it can just be one team playing better baseball overall and it showing up against everybody — worth knowing which before leaning on the head-to-head number itself.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 5-1 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's run through this series, 5-1 with a 14-5 win last time out. That's a lopsided number for a season series, and I'd want to separate how much is these two teams specifically versus the Pirates just playing good ball in general right now.
TEAM RECORDSTL @ NYY
Cardinals 2-6 in Michael McGreevy's last 8 starts
St. Louis is 2-6 in McGreevy's last eight starts, and given where his peripherals actually sit, that record might be a more honest read on this staff than his ERA is. Rough spot to be walking into Yankee Stadium with that behind him.
TEAM RECORDSD @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-2 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts
Diamondbacks are 6-2 in Pfaadt's last eight starts, winners of six straight when he's on the mound. His own recent form backs it up too — this isn't just a good lineup getting hot in front of an average arm.
SITUATIONALSD @ ARI
18.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 18.7 innings over the last 3 games (German Marquez (5) and Yuki Matsui (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-5
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo: 1.056 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's riding a heater — 1.056 over his last 45 plate appearances, way up from .635 for the year. That's a hitter you don't want to see right now if you're on the mound.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGESF @ TEX
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Carter's a completely different hitter against right-handers — .731 versus .330 the other way — and he gets that look from the 5-hole tonight against Webb.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKTOR @ HOU
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Toronto games have stayed under five straight, averaging 5.2 runs a night against lines that expected 8.3 combined — that's a real gap, not noise. Tonight's total actually jumped to 9, so the board isn't just extrapolating that under streak forward.
P final total 4 vs 9
PLATOON EDGETOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 6th against Cristian Javier (RHP)
Sanchez has crushed right-handed pitching all year (.800) and struggled against lefties (.364). Javier's a righty, so tonight lines up his way from the six-hole.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .566 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Rice is cold right now, but the matchup bails him out on paper — he's a .982 hitter against right-handers, and McGreevy fits that exactly. I'd watch this one for a bounce-back before I'd bet on the slump continuing.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .329 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Grisham's been cold for two weeks, but tonight's matchup is actually one of his better ones — McGreevy's a righty, and that's the side he's hit better all year. If there's a night for this to turn, it's this one.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIL
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Brandon Sproat (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe's been much better against right-handers this season — .899 against .606 — and Sproat gives him that look from the two-hole tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGELAD @ CHC
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Justin Wrobleski (LHP), batting 4th
Kelly turns into a real threat against lefties — .945 OPS there against .599 versus right-handers — and Wrobleski, a lefty, is exactly the matchup he wants batting cleanup.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWMIN @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.04 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
A 1.04 ERA next to a 4.58 xERA is about as wide a gap as you'll find on a board — three and a half runs of separation. A .219 average against on an expected .284, with a 43.9% hard-hit rate that isn't showing up in the barrel numbers, is the profile of a guy getting away with more than his ERA lets on.
HR THREATCardinals @ Yankees
Spencer Jones
Gary's Take Jones has three home runs in his last week, and the contact behind them isn't cheap — he's averaging 97 miles an hour off the bat with five barrels among his last fifteen batted balls, so this isn't a couple of lucky bounces. He's a left-handed pull hitter walking into a right field porch that's practically built for him, against a right-hander who's been living on borrowed time all year.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESTL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Same story on the other side of this one — Garcia in the 3-hole against a righty, .918 OPS on 302 at-bats against that side. Two lineups, two favorable platoon looks in the same spot tonight.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
HR THREATBlue Jays @ Astros
Yordan Alvarez
Gary's Take Alvarez is the best hitter alive right now and he's been getting hotter, not cooling off, into August — a .404 average and four home runs over his last two weeks, and his numbers at home this season border on absurd. Bieber is exactly the pitcher you want to see across from him: a right-hander the league is punishing right now, and his last outing didn't survive the first inning.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Neither ticket's been punched yet — he opens Tuesday at home against the Rays and closes the week Sunday on the road at the Cardinals. That 2.33 xERA is the best number anybody on this list is carrying. Top arm of the group. Start him both nights, no debate.
STARTER FORMSTL @ NYY
Michael McGreevy: 7.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
7.53 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP across his last three starts — whatever number gets built off his 3.57 season line tonight is pricing a pitcher who hasn't looked like that in a month.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
SITUATIONALLAD @ CHC
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Cole Irvin (6) and Kyle Hurt (2) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 5-10
COOLING OFFTB @ COL
Jonathan Aranda: .472 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Lorenzen
Aranda's cold — .472 over his last 52 plate appearances against .801 for the season — and the matchup doesn't rescue him either. Lorenzen's a righty, which happens to be the side Aranda's actually hit well this year.
P 4-for-5, 5 TB
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
Trea Turner: .992 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's at a .992 clip over the last two weeks with sixteen homers already this season. I like a hitter swinging it this well against that 1.5 total-bases number.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HR THREATDodgers @ Cubs
Shohei Ohtani
Gary's Take Ohtani is doing something absurd right now — nine hits in his last eighteen at-bats with two home runs in that stretch, and an average exit velocity near 98 miles an hour on his recent contact. That is not a hot week, that is a hitter squaring up everything he sees.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Isaac Paredes
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .773 OPS, bats 3rd.
HR THREATCardinals @ Yankees
Luis Garcia Jr.
Gary's Take Garcia walked into a first-place lineup this week and hasn't blinked — two home runs and an OPS over 1.100 in his last seven games, three homers in his last two weeks, and he's been one of the more dangerous bats in this lineup against right-handed pitching all season. Tonight he sees a right-hander in McGreevy who has one of the more hittable arsenals in the league right now — hitters are batting .364 against his cutter, one of the worst marks he throws.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
HR THREATGiants @ Rangers
Rafael Devers
Gary's Take Devers has four home runs in his last fifteen games and he found the seats again just last night in the loss to San Diego, so the swing is very much alive right now. What actually sells me on tonight is the shape of the matchup underneath that streak.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Christian Walker
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .775 OPS, bats 5th.
HR THREATCardinals @ Yankees
Ben Rice
Gary's Take Rice hasn't gone deep in his last week, but I'm not reading much into that — he's put up sixteen home runs at home this season alone, and his numbers against right-handed pitching are near the top of this roster. McGreevy's cutter has been hit hard by everybody who's seen it, a .364 average against it, and Rice is a hitter who does his damage over the heart of the plate.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
STREAKSF @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Texas games are averaging 9.3 combined runs across this four-game over streak, against lines that were averaging 7.5. Tonight's total climbed to 8, so the board's adjusting toward the trend without fully chasing it yet.
P final total 6 vs 8
BALLPARKTB @ COL
Michael Lorenzen owns a 8.34 ERA at Coors Field — 5.16 everywhere else
8.34 at Coors against 5.16 everywhere else, and that's across a real sample — 45-plus innings at altitude versus almost 60 elsewhere. Hitters batting .354 off him in that building says the split isn't subtle.
P 3 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
PLATOON EDGESF @ TEX
Corey Seager (bats L) draws Logan Webb (RHP), batting 3rd
Seager's blended season line undersells this matchup — .729 against right-handers versus .506 the other way, and he's hitting third against a righty tonight in Webb.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ HOU
George Springer: .990 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer's heating up — .990 over his last 49 plate appearances compared to .731 on the year. A half-base total tonight looks light for that kind of form.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two home dates, both still in front of him — Pirates come to Milwaukee Tuesday, Twins follow Sunday. His 2.67 xERA is the second-cleanest number here, behind only Hughes. Start both. This is the kind of two-for-one you don't sit and think about.
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
James Wood: .677 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Aaron Nola
Wood's come back down some — .677 over his last 55 plate appearances against .932 for the year — but Nola being a righty is actually his best matchup all season at .984.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CHC
Alex Bregman: .947 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bregman's swinging it well — .947 over his last 53 plate appearances against .717 for the season, eleven homers to his name.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
SITUATIONALPIT @ MIL
PIT's pen has logged 14 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14 innings out of the pen — Antwone Kelly (3) and Carmen Mlodzinski (3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side won 4-3
COOLING OFFTB @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .582 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ian Seymour
McCarthy's cooled off — .582 over his last 55 plate appearances against .821 for the year — but Seymour being a lefty tonight plays right into his strength, a .955 mark against lefties this season.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .541 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Alvarez
Schwarber's cold, but a lefty on the mound tonight is the one thing that could end it — he's a .970 hitter against left-handers, well clear of what he's shown the last two weeks.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Garrett Mitchell: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Mitchell's been quiet for two weeks, but tonight's exactly the matchup he wants — a right-hander, and he's been well above his season line against that side all year. I'd expect signs of life here.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
This week already has a start in the books — Monday at home against the Cardinals. What's left is Saturday's home date with the Braves. He's carrying a 2.89 xERA into it. Monday's start is already banked into your week one way or the other. Saturday's the only real decision left, and that xERA says don't overthink it.
HEAT CHECKTB @ COL
Hunter Goodman: 1.172 OPS in Last 15 Days
Goodman's doing serious damage — 1.172 over his last 41 plate appearances stacked on an already strong .887 this year. Thirty-three homers and he's still finding another gear.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Both starts are home dates and both are still ahead — Nationals Tuesday, Blue Jays to close it out Sunday. 2.98 xERA, dead center of this group. Start both. Middle of this pack is still better than the top of most others.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Road trip both ends of the week — Tuesday at the Cubs, Sunday at the Diamondbacks. His 2.98 ties him with Luzardo right at the group's midpoint. Two road starts don't move me off a number like that. Start him both.
REGRESSIONSTL @ NYY
Michael McGreevy: 3.57 ERA vs 5.66 xERA
Two-plus runs separate his 3.57 ERA from a 5.66 xERA, and the contact numbers explain why — a 42.6% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate over 10%, against results that have only allowed a .252 average on an expected .290. That's soft results sitting on top of hard contact, walking into a lineup like the Yankees'.
P 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
One on the road, one at home — Tuesday at the Brewers, then back to Pittsburgh Sunday for the Mets. 3.02 xERA puts him on the back half of this list. Back half of a group this strong still starts. Play him both.
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Henry Davis (47% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Davis throws out 47% of runners, one of the better marks at the position, and Milwaukee's running anyway — a steal a game as a team. They're not letting the arm change the approach.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
BALLPARKSTL @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 3.83 ERA
Schlittler's actually been sharper on the road than at Yankee Stadium — 1.10 ERA elsewhere against 3.83 at home, across nine starts in the Bronx. Worth knowing before anyone assumes his own park is automatically the better spot for him.
P 3 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWSD @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.48 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
There's a two-run gap between his 2.48 ERA and 4.8 xERA, but I'd separate this from the uglier regression cases on this board — a 35.3% hard-hit rate and an 8.8% barrel rate are still clean marks. Reads more like a good pitcher catching some ball-in-play help than someone about to fall apart.
STARTER FORMSF @ TEX
Cal Quantrill: 6.57 ERA over his last 3 starts
Quantrill's last three starts have gone the wrong direction — 6.57 ERA, nearly three runs worse than his season mark. Until he shows me otherwise, that's the version I'm expecting tonight.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.66 xERA behind a 3.57 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/3
Trey Yesavage
Two road tickets left to play, nothing used yet — Tuesday at the Astros, Sunday at the Phillies. 3.33 xERA, second-widest of the group. Start both. Back of this list is still a two-start week worth having.
HEAT CHECKSF @ TEX
Joc Pederson: 1.112 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pederson's been the hottest bat in this whole group — 1.112 over his last two weeks with twenty homers already this year. Hard to fade that kind of form right now.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTOR @ HOU
Shane Bieber: 5.75 ERA vs 7.53 xERA
His ERA's already bad at 5.75, and the peripherals say the real number should be worse — 7.53. A 45.5% hard-hit rate against a .307 expected average says hitters are squaring him up regularly, and the .270 he's actually carrying instead is more fortune than survival.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMLAD @ CHC
Matthew Boyd: 0.90 ERA over his last 3 starts
Two earned runs in 20 innings across his last three outings — a 0.90 ERA that looks nothing like the 3.41 he's carrying for the season. Whatever price gets built off the season number tonight is pricing the wrong version of him.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
STARTER FORMTOR @ HOU
Shane Bieber: 3.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
3.29 ERA over his last three starts against a 5.74 season mark that's probably still setting tonight's number. Two very different pitchers on paper, and the market's likely still working off the uglier one.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/3
Ian Seymour
Same situation as Schlittler — his week opened Monday on the road against the Rockies. Saturday at the Mariners is what's still ahead of him. 3.35 is the widest xERA on this list. Monday's already spoken for by the time you're reading this. Saturday's the call in front of you — softest number in the group, but he's still tiered PLAN_AROUND, not a bench arm.
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Jackson Chourio: .637 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bubba Chandler
Chourio's cold and tonight doesn't do him any favors either — right-handers are actually the tougher side for him, not the easier one. Two things working against him at once here.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
BULLPENLAD @ CHC
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Cole Irvin threw 6 innings and 102 pitches out of that pen — a starter's workload, not a reliever's, and that's not walking it back tonight regardless of matchup. Hurt and Mills both went multiple innings too, with Mills needing 53 pitches for his two, so if the Dodgers' starter comes out early against the Cubs, Phillips is the one arm in that group who's actually fresh.
REGRESSIONTOR @ HOU
Cristian Javier: 7.17 ERA vs 5.59 xERA
7.17 looks like a disaster, but a 5.59 xERA says it's a bad season rather than a full collapse. The strikeout rate's still real at 8.9 per nine, and with a 1.83 WHIP there's plenty of traffic on the bases regardless — some of that ugly number is sequencing turning rough innings uglier, not just bad stuff.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
CLOSER WATCHLAD @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Caleb Thielbar
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Caleb Thielbar 3. The role is live.
BATTER VS ARMSD @ ARI
Manny Machado vs Brandon Pfaadt: .353
Machado's 6-for-17 with a couple walks in his career against Pfaadt, and he's hitting .872 over his last two weeks on top of it. Good matchup meeting a hot bat.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHSF @ TEX
Erik Miller / Ryan Walker
Shared ninth in SF: Erik Miller 4 saves, Ryan Walker 3. The role is live.
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
Bryson Stott: .920 OPS in Last 15 Days
Stott's been hitting the ball with real authority the last two weeks — .920 OPS, well above his season mark. That 0.5 total-bases number looks light for where he's at right now.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .303 AVG vs .256 xBA
Mangum's hitting .303, but the quality of his contact supports something closer to .256. That's a real gap between the results and what's actually happening at the plate.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
STARTER FORMSD @ ARI
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
1.96 ERA with 8 strikeouts across his last three starts, against a 4.00 season mark that's probably still doing the pricing tonight. Matches the team's own 6-2 record with him on the mound over that same stretch.
P 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFTOR @ HOU
Kazuma Okamoto: .573 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Cristian Javier
Kazuma Okamoto's .573 OPS over the last 15 days (52 PA) trails his .751 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP Cristian Javier — his stronger side: a .767 OPS vs RHP across 299 AB.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .273 AVG vs .225 xBA
Moniak's .273 average is running well ahead of a .225 expected mark. The results have been better than the contact quality underneath them.
P 2-for-4, 7 TB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 8/3
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/3 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
BALLPARKWSH @ PHI
Aaron Nola owns a 6.70 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.76 everywhere else
Nola's been noticeably worse at home than away — 6.70 at Citizens Bank against 4.76 on the road, with hitters batting .313 off him in that specific building. That split sits underneath a pitcher who's already scuffling this year, and he's on his own mound again tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Esmerlyn Valdez: .262 AVG vs .217 xBA
Valdez is hitting .262 against a .217 expected average — a decent-sized gap between the results and the contact underneath them.
P 0-for-1, 0 TB, 3 BB
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Edmundo Sosa: .182 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Alvarez
Sosa's been about as cold as a hitter gets the last two weeks, but tonight's matchup — a lefty — is genuinely his better side. I'd watch for signs of life here more than expect the slump to keep going.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo (.711 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Laureano's been out 59 days now with a hip issue, and Rengifo's settled into left field in his place — .711 against right-handers, above his .635 mark for the year, facing Pfaadt from the six-hole.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CHC
Freddie Freeman: 1.020 OPS in Last 15 Days
Freeman's swinging it as well as anyone right now — 1.020 over the last two weeks. His personal history against tonight's starter says the opposite though, so this is a case where hot form and a rough head-to-head are pulling different directions.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REPLACEMENTTB @ COL
Victor Mesa Jr. (.730 vs RHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Fraley's groin issue just came up yesterday, and Mesa Jr. gets the start in right field because of it — a solid platoon look too, .730 against right-handers against a .718 line for the year, facing Lorenzen from the five-hole.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTTOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (.785 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Barger's been out a week now with an elbow issue, and Lukes has taken the right field job and made the most of it — leading off tonight against Javier, a righty, which happens to be the pitcher he's built for.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Taylor Trammell
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .729 OPS, bats 7th.
REPLACEMENTSD @ ARI
Max Kepler (.637 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
Lawlar's been out nine days now with a hamstring issue, and Kepler's the one filling in — but the matchup doesn't do him favors, a .637 mark against right-handers that's actually below his .664 for the year, facing King from the five-hole.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum (.744 vs RHP) replaces Oneil Cruz at CF tonight
Cruz has been out five days now with a hand issue, and Mangum's taken over in center — a .744 mark against right-handers, a tick above his .735 line for the year, leading off against Sproat's righty stuff tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
REGRESSIONLAD @ CHC
Justin Wrobleski: 2.88 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
A forty-five point gap between what hitters are actually batting and what the contact quality says they should be — that's about as clear a sign of favorable bounces as you'll find. I'd expect some pullback toward that 4.3 number.
P 4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKPIT @ MIL
Joey Ortiz: .937 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-six plate appearances is a small window to hang a trend on, but .937 in that window against a .651 season line is still real signal before that 0.5 total-bases number gets set.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
BALLPARKLAD @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Matthew Boyd pitches to a 4.35 ERA
Boyd's actually a bit worse at Wrigley than away from it — 4.35 there against 2.57 elsewhere — even with how well he's pitched across the board lately. Good reminder that his own park isn't automatically the friendly one for him.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
PARK WEATHERLAD @ CHC
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight
Wrigley's got the same wind tonight, in from right field at ten miles an hour. The total's still up at 11.5, so the market isn't fully conceding the point to the weather.
P final total 15 vs 11.5 (under lean)
PARK WEATHERPIT @ MIL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at American Family Field tonight
Wind's blowing straight in at ten miles an hour in Milwaukee tonight, the kind that knocks fly balls down before they reach the track. Total's sitting at 9.5 anyway.
P final total 7 vs 9.5 (under lean)
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2th for SD — 0.592 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 2-hole.
REGRESSIONLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .229 AVG vs .271 xBA
Betts is hitting more than forty points under what the quality of his contact says he should be. That's the kind of gap that tends to close on its own — it doesn't need him to change a thing, just needs a few more balls to find grass.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Yainer Diaz
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.53 xERA) — .700 OPS, bats 8th.
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.61 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
About a run separates his 5.61 ERA from a 4.33 xERA, and a .279 average against an expected .249 backs up that some balls have found grass they shouldn't have. But a 41.2% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate over 10% mean he's handing out real quality contact too — this isn't clean bad luck, some of this rough year is earned.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONSD @ ARI
Michael King: 3.38 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
King's beating his peripherals by over a run, but unlike some of the other names on this board, his underlying process actually supports being good — a 33.2% hard-hit rate, an 8.7% barrel rate, and 7.8 strikeouts per nine. The .215 against a .245 expected average is a little friendly, but this isn't a mirage.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
BATTER VS ARMLAD @ CHC
Matthew Boyd vs Freddie Freeman: 1-for-11, 7 K
Freeman's 1-for-11 with seven strikeouts in his career against Boyd — about as lopsided as these individual matchup histories get. Tonight's the rematch.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CHC
Teoscar Hernandez: .856 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hernandez has quietly turned it on — .856 over the last two weeks, more than a hundred points above his season line. Not the loudest name in this group, but the form's legitimate.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
STARTER FORMPIT @ MIL
Bubba Chandler: 3.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
14 strikeouts against 5 earned runs across his last 15 innings — a 3.00 ERA that's a run and a half better than his season number. He's trending in the right direction walking into Milwaukee.
P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras throwing out 40% of runners is genuinely elite, and Pittsburgh's going to test him anyway. That's a real strength-on-strength battle on the bases tonight, not a free chance to run.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 1 base
REGRESSIONSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .211 AVG vs .246 xBA
Same story as his last two weeks at the plate — the results are lagging behind the contact quality. A .246 expected average against what he's actually hit says part of this slump is just balls finding gloves instead of grass.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Cristian Javier
Starts tonight for HOU — 5.59 xERA behind a 7.17 ERA.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ PHI
Bryson Stott (bats L) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Stott's already hot, and tonight he also gets the matchup — a lefty, his clearly better side. Everything's lining up for him at once here.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTTB tonight
Cedric Mullins
Still hitting 4th for TB — 0.631 OPS, 0.201 AVG from the 4-hole.
CLOSER WATCHTB @ COL
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 31 saves this season (next closest: Kevin Kelly with 4).
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Freddy Peralta's sitting on a 4.99 ERA, but a 5.2 percent barrel rate is about as clean as contact management gets — hitters aren't squaring him up, they're just finding enough grass to inflate the average against him by close to thirty points. The stuff's been better than that ERA all along, even on the road at Colorado tomorrow.
CLOSER WATCHWSH @ PHI
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brad Keller with 3).
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ NYY
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 24 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ NYY
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
CLOSER WATCHSF @ TEX
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ NYY
Spencer Jones
Pickup vs Michael McGreevy (5.66 xERA) — .754 OPS, bats 4th.
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ HOU
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).
CLOSER WATCHSD @ ARI
Paul Sewald
Paul Sewald owns the ninth for the Diamondbacks — 24 saves this season (next closest: Brandyn Garcia with 3).
TOMORROWWSH @ PHI
Zack Littell: 4.94 ERA vs 6.12 xERA
4.94 already isn't a good number, and a 6.12 xERA says the process behind it is worse still — a 44.1% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate above 10% put him on the hittable side. The .263 he's actually allowed against an expected .286 is the only thing keeping the ERA from climbing further, and that's a thin cushion walking into Philadelphia.
CUT LISTPHI tonight
Alec Bohm
Still hitting 4th for PHI — 0.647 OPS, 0.226 AVG from the 4-hole.
HEAT CHECKSTL @ NYY
Spencer Jones: .958 OPS in Last 15 Days
Only 24 plate appearances behind this one, but .958 in that stretch against a .754 season line is still a real jump worth knowing before that 1.5 total-bases number gets bet.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez
Pickup vs Cristian Javier (5.59 xERA) — .747 OPS, bats 6th.
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
BATTER VS ARMSD @ ARI
Jake Cronenworth vs Brandon Pfaadt: .409
Jake Cronenworth's 9-for-22 with an .846 OPS against Brandon Pfaadt for his career, well ahead of the .666 he's carrying over his last 15 games overall. Whatever's been off lately hasn't shown up against this arm.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENPIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 14 relief IP over their last 3 games
Zero arms worked back-to-back days out of nine used over the last three games — about as rested as a pen gets. Doval's 14-pitch outing was the lightest of the group, so he's the one lined up to handle the biggest spot late if Pittsburgh needs it.
FANTASY PICKUPSPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.86 xERA) — .832 OPS, bats 3rd.
FANTASY PICKUPSPIT @ MIL
Spencer Horwitz
Pickup vs Brandon Sproat (4.86 xERA) — .829 OPS, bats 5th.
FIRST INNINGPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Milwaukee's scored in the first inning just 3 of their last 10 games, Pittsburgh the same — 14 combined clean opening frames between them, and the number's priced at Under 0.5 -125. Both starters back it up: Sproat's held hitters to a .209 first-inning average, Chandler .186, even though neither one's actual first-inning ERA — 5.00 and 4.50 — looks that clean on the surface.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Gabriel Hughes: 3.33 ERA vs 2.33 xERA
This one runs the other way — his 3.33 ERA is actually worse than his 2.33 xERA. A 27.1% hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate are about as clean as it gets, and a .250 average against an expected .188 points at balls finding holes, not anything wrong with the stuff.
TOMORROWSF @ TEX
MacKenzie Gore: 4.77 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Different night than tonight's slate, but worth logging — the average against him actually matches almost exactly what the contact quality predicts, so this isn't a story about bad luck on balls in play. More likely just a matter of when the hard contact bunched up.
CUT LISTTEX tonight
Corey Seager
Still hitting 3th for TEX — 0.671 OPS, 0.188 AVG from the 3-hole.
TOMORROWMIA @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 3.88 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
Under a run separates his 3.88 ERA from a 4.8 xERA, and with a 42.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.7% barrel rate, the contact quality isn't clean in either direction. Reads like normal season variance rather than a number about to move hard either way.
REGRESSIONSF @ TEX
San Francisco Giants are 10-19 in one-run games (.345 win%)
Flip side of the same coin — a .345 win rate in one-run games, 10-19, is unusually low, and that stuff tends to even out too. San Francisco's record might be selling this team a little short.
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
A .655 win rate in one-run games, 19-10, is the kind of number that tends to drift back toward .500 over a full season. Philadelphia's overall record is leaning on some of that.
TOMORROWDET @ SEA
Emerson Hancock: 3.26 ERA vs 4.16 xERA
Emerson Hancock's 3.26 ERA is getting real help on balls in play — .217 against an expected .249, a 32-point cushion. A 43.9 percent hard-hit rate says the contact he's allowing is firmer than that number lets on. Cushions like that tend to shrink, and Detroit's in town tomorrow to test it.
RETURN WATCHNYM — return listed 8/8
Clay Holmes
Listed back 8/8 (60-Day-IL, lower leg) — 2.39 ERA this season.
REPLACEMENTSTL @ NYY
Jose Fermin (.564 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Urias at 3B tonight
Fermin's only in the lineup because Urias has been dealing with an elbow issue the last four days, and the matchup he walks into isn't an easy one either — .564 against right-handers, and Schlittler's exactly that from the 8th spot. Playing time without a favorable matchup to go with it.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
TOMORROWLAD @ CHC
Javier Assad: 3.75 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Modest gap between his 3.75 ERA and 4.58 xERA, but the 45.8% hard-hit rate is the number that jumps out regardless of what the ERA says. That's a lot of loud contact for someone who's kept his actual runs allowed in check so far.
REPLACEMENTTOR @ HOU
Ernie Clement (.733 vs RHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight
Ernie Clement gets the start at second for Toronto with Sosa banged up, and it's a fit that works for him — a .733 OPS against right-handers over 302 at-bats, right at his .729 season mark, against Houston right-hander Cristian Javier tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 6th for SD — 0.635 OPS, 0.237 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Masyn Winn
Still hitting 6th for STL — 0.642 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 6-hole.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/10
Nick Mears
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/10
Kris Bubic
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, elbow) — 4.11 ERA this season.
CUT LISTNYY tonight
Jasson Dominguez
Still hitting 5th for NYY — 0.653 OPS, 0.230 AVG from the 5-hole.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
FIRST INNINGTOR @ HOU
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Toronto's own bats have gone quiet early, just one first-inning run in their last ten games. But Bieber's the one on the mound for them tonight, and his own first-inning number is ugly — 10.80 ERA, .321 against — so whatever Toronto isn't doing at the plate early, Houston's hitters have had real success doing against their starter specifically.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGSTL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York's own bats have produced a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, and it's not one-sided — Schlittler's been excellent in his own first innings this year at .183 against, while McGreevy sits at a respectable .260 himself. Both halves of that opening frame lean quiet, and the board's pricing the under as the favorite here.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGWSH @ PHI
WSH have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Washington's bats have scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games, and Nola himself has held hitters to a .235 average in his own first innings this season. Two separate reasons pointing the same way for Washington's half of the inning, even if the game's overall first-inning number also depends on what Philly's lineup does against whoever starts for Washington.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGTB @ COL
TB have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Tampa Bay's bats have produced one first-inning run in their last ten games, but Lorenzen's the one they're facing tonight, and his own first-inning number is soft — 5.73 ERA, .298 against. Seymour's been the opposite in his own first innings, 1.29 ERA and .130 against, which points the other way for Colorado's half of the inning.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Rangers ML -135
MLB · 5-1
L
Brewers ML -156
MLB · 4-3
L
Yankees -1.5 -106
MLB · 13-7
L
Astros ML -143
MLB · 3-1
W
Cubs ML +109
MLB · 5-10
L
Nationals ML +133
MLB · 3-6
L
Rockies +1.5 +103
MLB · 13-9
L
Padres ML -105
MLB · 1-5

Props

W
Aaron Nola · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 6
L
Andrew Alvarez · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 19
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Bubba Chandler · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 4
L
Cal Quantrill · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 18
L
Cam Schlittler · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 6
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Corbin Carroll · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Cristian Javier · under
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 18
L
Daniel Susac · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Ezequiel Tovar · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 4
L
George Springer · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Hunter Goodman · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Ian Seymour · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 7
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
James Wood · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Jeremy Pena · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 1
L
Jeremy Pena · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Joc Pederson · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 2
L
Kazuma Okamoto · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Manny Machado · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Matthew Boyd · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 20
W
Michael King · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 5
L
Michael McGreevy · under
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 5
W
Mookie Betts · under
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Seiya Suzuki · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
W
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Trea Turner · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Ty France · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Willi Castro · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
L
Wyatt Langford · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Yainer Diaz · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0