Pirates at Brewers
O/U 8.5 · RL Brewers -1.5
Brewers ML-156
CONF 60%
LLostFinal 4-3
The read
**Gary's Take**
It's the last day teams can make trades, and Milwaukee spent it getting stronger — two new pitchers walked in the door just as the Brewers, the best team in their league, start a long stretch of home games under a closed roof. The team visiting them is a weird kind of underdog: Pittsburgh has somehow beaten Milwaukee five out of six times this year, and honestly, that history is the only thing keeping this game as close as it looks — because almost nothing about how the Pirates have played the last two weeks backs it up.
Here's the matchup tonight. Pittsburgh's starter, Bubba Chandler, throws extremely hard and eats right-handed hitters alive — but Milwaukee is loading their lineup with lefties, and lefties are exactly who hurts him. He's given up a bunch of home runs to them, and they hit him hard all year. He also doesn't pitch deep into games and walks a lot of guys, so once he's out, the middle of the game falls to a Pittsburgh bullpen that's exhausted after covering a super-short start from their other pitcher on Sunday. Their two new relievers help lock down the very end of games — but the game will be decided before then. On Milwaukee's side, their starter Brandon Sproat isn't a star, but look who he's facing: Pittsburgh is missing their two best bats, their veteran star is in a brutal slump, and their young fill-in swings and misses constantly. This Pirates offense has barely scored on this road trip while getting pounded on defense, and Milwaukee's two best relievers are fresh and ready after a day off.
That five-wins-in-six history is the trap here, and I took it seriously — I looked at it twice. But most of those wins came from a different Pirates team. Their best player was in the lineup for the early ones, and the summer wins came before an injury gutted this batting order. Tonight's version is the weakest lineup Pittsburgh has run out all year — on the road, with no rest, against the best home team in the league and a locked-down late bullpen. The betting line has been moving toward Milwaukee all day, and I'm not going to fight it. Give me the Brewers.
The full analysis
Deadline day in Milwaukee, and the roof is closed on a first-place club that spent the afternoon getting better — Dustin May and Antonio Senzatela walk in the door just as the Brewers open a seven-game homestand at 69-42, best record in the National League. The team in the other dugout is the strangest kind of underdog: the Pirates have beaten Milwaukee five times in six tries this season, and that head-to-head is doing a lot of work holding this price where it is, because almost nothing else about Pittsburgh's last two weeks should.
Here's what the matchup actually looks like tonight. Bubba Chandler brings real velocity, sitting 98 and change, and he's death on right-handed bats — but Milwaukee is stacking five lefties on him, and left-handers are where he bleeds: eight homers and a near-.800 OPS against this year. Jake Bauers is the hottest hitter on either roster, Brice Turang is a different animal in this building, and when Chandler leaves — he averages barely five innings, and the walks come in bunches — he hands the middle innings to a Pittsburgh pen that just absorbed heavy work covering Mitch Keller's two-inning start Sunday. Luke Weaver and Camilo Doval fix the ninth inning; they don't fix the fifth. On the other side, Brandon Sproat is nobody's ace, but look at what he's facing: no Oneil Cruz, no Ryan O'Hearn, Bryan Reynolds nine for his last fifty-six, Esmerlyn Valdez swinging through a third of what he sees. This Pirates offense has scraped together three and a half runs a game on this road trip while giving up nearly six, and Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe are both rested behind Sproat with Sunday off.
The five-and-one season series is the trap here, and I respect it enough to have stared at it twice. But most of that damage came from a different Pittsburgh roster — Cruz played the April games, and that July weekend at PNC came before the quad strain thinned this lineup to the bone. Tonight's version is the weakest batting order the Pirates have run out all year, on the road, on zero rest, against the best home team in the league with an elite back of the bullpen. The number has drifted toward Milwaukee all day and I'm not fighting the direction, just the hesitation. Give me the Brewers.
Props on this game
5Nick GonzalesOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+106
LActual 0
Gonzales is the hottest hitter on this roster right now — 20 hits in his last 15 games, a .328 average, and he's been getting on base or driving somebody in almost every night. He's a right-handed bat facing a right-hander in Sproat who's actually been more hittable against righties than lefties this year, a 5.05 ERA that isn't hiding anything. This is a bat in rhythm against a pitcher who hasn't figured out how to keep anyone off the barrel. One and a half combined hits, runs, and RBIs is a low bar for where Gonzales is standing right now.
Bubba ChandlerOVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-115
LActual 4
Chandler's been touched up for extra-base contact by left-handed hitters all year, and Milwaukee is sending out a lineup with five lefty bats tonight. He's allowed at least five hits in five of his last six outings, and that's before accounting for a home lineup that's the best offense he's faced in that stretch. He's a converted reliever still searching for consistency deep into starts, and this Brewers order is built to lean on exactly the weakness he has against left-handed contact.
Jake BauersOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+420
LActual 0
Bauers is the hottest left-handed bat on this field right now — two home runs in his last week, and the contact quality behind it backs up the results, not just a couple of lucky fly balls. He handles right-handed pitching well over a full season, and Bubba Chandler is a right-hander with a real split problem: he's been considerably more hittable against lefties than righties all year, mostly in the power numbers. Chandler also tends to get pulled early once he starts laboring, so Bauers figures to see him more than once tonight before Pittsburgh turns to the bullpen. There's a wind blowing in from right field that works against pulled fly balls, and that's worth respecting, but a hitter this hot against a pitcher with this specific weakness is still worth the number here.
Brandon LoweOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+365
LActual 0
Nobody in this game is swinging it better than Lowe right now — an OPS over 1.000 for the week, and the exit velocity and barrel rate behind those swings say it's real, not just seeing-eye hits. He does real damage against the fastball, and Brandon Sproat is leaning on his four-seamer and cutter for close to half his pitches this year, with that cutter getting hit hard by pretty much everyone who's faced it. Sproat also walks a fair number of hitters, which usually means he's around the plate more than he'd like rather than nibbling corners. He's a lefty stepping into a wind blowing in from right field tonight, so conditions aren't perfect, but a bat this locked in against a pitcher leaking this much hard contact is a spot worth taking.
Esmerlyn ValdezOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+402
LActual 0
Valdez has a track record of doing real damage against sinkers when he sees them, and Brandon Sproat throws his sinker close to a quarter of the time — that's a specific enough matchup to matter, even allowing for a small sample. What keeps me from leaning harder here is that Valdez has gone quiet over the last week after an earlier hot stretch, and his power this season has leaned toward day games more than night games — this one's under the lights. I like the matchup enough to take a shot at this price, but it's a lighter touch than the other two swings I'm taking tonight.
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