Daily archive

2026-08-04

The stored Gary board for Tue, Aug 4. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB6:35 PM

Angels @ Orioles

**Gary's Take** Two teams walked into last week's trade deadline and two thinner teams walked out. Baltimore sent Rutschman to Boston, Kremer to Minnesota, Ward to Seattle. Anaheim cleaned out the whole shelf in about a day and a half — Soriano, Adell, O'Hoppe, Suter, Zeferjahn, all gone. So tonight at Camden Yards is the hangover series, and there's a twist on the mound for the visitors: Grayson Rodriguez, back in the park where he grew up as a prospect, wearing the wrong uniform, in a season that hasn't gone anything like Anaheim hoped when they traded Taylor Ward to get him. That's the story. The price is the business, and the price moved a hair in my favor this morning. I'm laying it because of what the Angels are bringing to the plate. They're barely scoring three runs a night over the last two weeks, they've been awful on the road all year, and they've won twice in their last ten — and that was *before* the deadline pulled Adell and O'Hoppe out of the middle of their order. Look at tonight's lineup and count the home runs over the last two weeks: four, from the entire group. Neto is swinging and missing constantly and chasing almost everything out of the strike zone. Grissom is chasing about as much. Trout has been hitting the ball well for two weeks without putting a single one over the fence. Ballesteros and d'Arnaud have barely batted at all in that stretch. That group doesn't need Cade Povich to be good. It needs him to be *bad*, and bad early, because this team isn't built to come from behind — they're well under .500 after a win and much worse coming off a day off, and they've got both of those things going against them stepping off the plane on day one of a six-game trip. The honest risk is Povich himself. He's a fill-in arm who's only getting this start because Kremer got traded, and if he can't throw strikes it gets ugly fast, since the bullpen behind him lost Bautista and Helsley and can't bail him out. Baltimore's bats have been quiet too — right around four runs a night over the same two weeks. But the Orioles are the healthier side of an unhealthy game: Alonso is crushing the ball, Encarnacion-Strand has been driving in runs with real power the last couple weeks, and Holliday has been on a tear at the plate. Meanwhile Rodriguez has to carry a losing club into the yard where everybody remembers what he was supposed to become, with a bullpen that got raided at the deadline and Bachman down with a tired arm. Two teams going nowhere, but only one of them still has a lineup. **Orioles to win.**

Orioles ML-150

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70%

MLB6:40 PM

Athletics @ Reds

**Gary's Take** Tuesday night by the river in Cincinnati, warm and dry, no rain coming. The A's are in town to open a series against the Reds, first pitch just before seven. Both these clubs got told the truth about themselves at the trade deadline. Oakland just flew in from Detroit, where they got swept and closed it out with an ugly blowout loss, their pitchers handing out walk after walk. Cincinnati had yesterday off, near the end of a long homestand, and they're giving the ball to Brady Singer — a guy they held onto when half the league was trying to buy him. J.T. Ginn goes for the A's, his first time out since a blister on his finger shut him down late last month. Here's what keeps pulling at me: look at who Oakland is actually sending up to hit. Rooker's done for the year. Langeliers is done for the year. Kurtz went back on the injured list this morning with a bad thumb after barely getting a hit since they last brought him back. What's left is Jeff McNeil playing out of position at first, Tommy White in a long homer drought, and Carlos Cortes riding a hitless stretch. That's a lineup full of guys who swing at pitches out of the strike zone — Jacob Wilson chases more often than not, and White and McNeil aren't far behind — and Singer's whole problem last time out was that he couldn't find the plate. Then there's Ginn's situation: first start back off an injury, no minor league tune-up, and his own manager saying out loud that his bullpen doesn't have the arms to close a door. Whatever Ginn gives them, the middle innings belong to a group that's been giving up runs, and this ballpark punishes that. I'm not going to sit here and tell you Cincinnati is scary. They're under .500, they've barely scored the last two weeks, and Oakland beat them both times these two met this year. Singer's last start was a mess. But I'm being asked to lay a small favorite's price on the healthier lineup, the rested team, the better pitching staff by a clear margin, in a park where De La Cruz, Sal Stewart and a red-hot Tyler Stephenson only need one mistake — against a team on a five-game losing streak, well under .500 away from home, and getting buried by a few runs a night for two weeks. That price tells me the market is just staring at the two records and shrugging. I don't think the records are the story tonight. **Reds moneyline.**

Reds ML-129

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67%

MLB6:40 PM

Mets @ Guardians

## Gary's Take Clear night by the lake, evening first pitch in Cleveland, two lefties starting, and two teams heading in opposite directions. Cleveland was a solid favorite this morning and now they're barely favored at all — that whole drop is because Jose Ramirez got scratched with a sore left hand. I'll happily take the cheaper price. Losing him hurts, I'm not going to pretend otherwise, but this team has already played a chunk of games without him this season and come out right at .500. That's not worth the size of the price cut we just got. That's a big name coming off the lineup card and the market panicking about the name. What's replacing him is the part the price hasn't caught up to yet. Jo Adell is batting second and Rhys Hoskins is batting fourth — both here because the front office went shopping last week while New York was busy selling off pieces. Steven Kwan has been scorching hot for two weeks and isn't chasing bad pitches. Travis Bazzana is hitting the ball hard and squaring it up. Cantillo gets that group behind him, at home, against a Mets lineup that's barely scored the last two weeks and just got blanked in Miami. Bichette is ice cold and swinging at everything out of the zone. Robert is worse. Lindor is the only hitter over there I'd genuinely lose sleep over tonight, and one hitter doesn't beat you by himself. The bigger thing is what New York has left once the starter comes out. Holmes, Weaver, Raley, Taylor, Rortvedt, Peralta — all traded away. Perez is hurt. Behind Manaea now it's Curry, Lavender and Yan, arms just called up this week to soak up innings for a team buried in the standings with nothing left to play for. Cleveland is still within shouting distance in their division and playing like it matters. I'm not ignoring the risk: they've lost seven of their last ten and Vogt has been fielding questions about his own bullpen all month, which is exactly why I'm not laying the extra run and a half just to shave the price. Straight moneyline on the Guardians — and I'd have taken it at this morning's more expensive number too.

Guardians ML-128

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62%

MLB7:05 PM

Cardinals @ Yankees

Second game of this series in the Bronx, first pitch in the early evening, warm night, with the wind drifting across the outfield. Last night these two put up a mountain of runs and a pile of home runs, and the crowd went from silent to berserk to silent again in about three innings. Tonight the betting market wants me to lay a heavy price on the team that lost that game — a Yankee club that's barely been scratching out runs for the last two weeks. That's the whole ballgame for me right there. Look at the lineup Boone is running out. It's stacked with lefty hitters against a righty pitcher, and the three men who make this lineup scary — Judge, Stanton, Bellinger — are all sitting. Volpe and Dominguez got sent down this morning. Lombard Jr. is playing his first big league game tonight. Grisham, Rice, Chisholm and McMahon have all been ice cold at the plate lately. García Jr. is legit and Spencer Jones has real power, but that's two bats. Meanwhile Dobbins has been the steadier pitcher once you strip out the luck, comfortably better than Weathers by the underlying numbers, and Weathers has pitched noticeably worse in this ballpark than he does anywhere else. New York is the better team. New York is not nearly as sure a thing as this price says. I'm not talking myself into St. Louis winning outright — Burleson is on the bench against the lefty, their bats are cold up and down, and the Yankee relievers Bednar and Cruz are the best arms on this field late. What I want is the cushion. Both starters are on short leashes, both bullpens got worked hard last night, and games like that rarely end in a comfortable margin. The price on this run line says the Cardinals hang around just a shade more often than a coin flip. Underdogs at this kind of price, when they do lose, lose by a single run an awful lot. Give me the run and a half, and let New York try to beat me by two with the lineup they've got left.

Cardinals +1.5-127

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60%

MLB6:40 PM

Nationals @ Phillies

I'm at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of this four-game set, and Washington shows up beaten down — six straight losses and a dugout that just watched a grand slam disappear into left-center. Philly has the better starting pitcher, the better record, and the home crowd behind them. That's exactly the kind of setup where the betting line gets shoved further than the actual game deserves. Here's what I keep coming back to: I'm not betting on Washington to win, I'm betting on them to stay close. Luzardo is legit — he misses bats, and against a Washington lineup without Wood, with Harry Ford and Nasim Nunez both barely getting a hit over the past couple weeks, he's going to collect easy outs. But Philadelphia's offense hasn't been beating anybody up lately. They've been scoring a modest number of runs, Schwarber hasn't gotten a hit in his last ten trips to the plate, Marsh has been cold for two weeks, and the lineup just got shuffled with Harper relearning right field and Arraez dropped into a whole new spot in the infield. This is a team that wins close games far more often than it loses them — and close games are exactly where a run-and-a-half cushion pays off. Washington doesn't need to be the better team. They just need to lose by one, or not lose at all. The other side of this is Palmquist, and I'll be honest, he worries me — ugly earned run average, hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in five tries, and every one of those starts went in the loss column. But the contact hitters are actually making off him is softer than that ugly number suggests, and he's got a sweeping breaking ball he leans on heavily that hitters chase and swing through a lot. He also faced this same Philadelphia club six weeks back and gave up just one run. He won't last deep, and Washington's bullpen has been the bad story of the week — but they've barely been used the last three games, so the arms are fresh. Getting paid better than even money, I just need this to be a ballgame instead of a beatdown. Give me Washington plus the run and a half, and I'll happily take the plus money over laying a fortune to be told what I already know.

Nationals +1.5+119

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62%

MLB7:10 PM

White Sox @ Red Sox

Tuesday night at Fenway, hot and muggy with the wind blowing out to center, and the Red Sox come home for the first time in weeks with the biggest story in baseball behind them — three straight wins in Los Angeles, five in a row overall, a sweep of the defending champs in their own park. The White Sox land in Boston coming off a blowout win in Tampa, and they're sitting alone in first place in their division. These two teams are separated by a single game in the standings. The prices are not that close. This morning you could have gotten Chicago at a decent number, and by the time I locked it in they were paying noticeably more. That move didn't come from anything about tonight's game — it came from a weekend in Los Angeles and a highlight reel. Boston earned that hot stretch, but they earned it on the road. At home this year they've actually been a losing team. Their starter is barely into a season that began with him rehabbing, he's putting a lot of runners on base, and he hasn't been trusted to get through the fifth inning all year. Chicago's counter to a lefty is a lineup stacked with right-handed hitters, in a ballpark that rewards righties pulling the ball better than anywhere else in the game. Vargas and Grichuk both mash left-handed pitching with real power. Murakami is a different hitter at night than he is during the day, and this is a night game. I'll be straight about the other side, because it's real. Chicago's starter had two ugly months in June and July, his best pitch has been getting hit hard, and this same Boston lineup lit him up for five runs in four innings a month ago. The White Sox have lost all three meetings this year and barely scored. Boston's bullpen is the best thing on the field tonight, and everybody in it is rested. That's why this number isn't crazy. But it isn't a good deal either. When two teams with basically the same record play, and one of them is priced like a clear favorite behind a pitcher who can't finish the fifth, I don't need the underdog to be the better team. I just need them to be closer to a coin flip than the price says. **White Sox, moneyline, +137.**

White Sox ML+137

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58%

MLB7:15 PM

Marlins @ Braves

Tuesday night in Atlanta, first pitch just after seven, and the Braves come home to face a division rival they've already beaten in five of their seven meetings this year. Atlanta has won five in a row and just swept Washington out of their own ballpark over the weekend. Miami's playing well too — they've won six of their last seven, and Alcantara shut them out on Sunday. The Braves are the favorite, and you'll have to lay a bit extra to back them. The market's paying for the wrong thing. It's looking at the two starters' run prevention numbers on paper, seeing a wide gap, and pricing that in. That gap isn't real. Look at the kind of contact each guy actually gives up and they're basically the same pitcher — Holmes has been getting better results than he's earned for two months now, Gusto worse. So I'm not betting the starter matchup. I'm betting who's coming to the plate and what happens once the starters are out. Gusto has real trouble with left-handed hitters — they've been hammering him all year — and Atlanta is going to run Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Smith and Jarvis at him, plus Albies, who can bat from whichever side suits him. Olson has homered three games in a row and in four of his last six. That's a brutal lineup to face with that kind of weakness, and Gusto has only made it out of the fifth inning once in his last six starts. Miami has to bridge the middle innings with a bullpen that lost pieces at the trade deadline. The other half is the lineup Miami actually wrote out tonight. This isn't the group that won six of seven — Edwards isn't in it, Hernandez has basically stopped hitting and is swinging through everything, Caissie has barely batted in the big leagues at all, and the bottom of the order hands out free outs. Holmes leans on a slider he throws a ton and gets a lot of swings and misses with, and tonight he gets to throw it at hitters who chase. Behind him he's got Iglesias, Dodd, Lee and Fuentes, all fresh after an off day Monday. Atlanta's been very good at home this year; Miami's been below .500 on the road. I won't oversell the price — it's fair, not a steal, and the line has already nudged toward Atlanta since this morning. But the reason to be here is the matchup underneath the price, not the price itself. Braves, moneyline.

Braves ML-146

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65%

MLB7:40 PM

Twins @ Royals

Tuesday night in Kansas City, and the matchup looks like a trap. Randy Dobnak comes home with a sparkling earned run average and the memory of seven scoreless innings against this exact Minnesota lineup less than a week ago — the kind of line that makes a room lean the wrong way. I'm on the other side of it. Dobnak has been living on soft landings. He's barely missing any bats — the sinker he throws most of the time gets put in play by just about everybody who sees it, and when this lineup does square him up, it's been hit hard. A month's worth of nearly spotless run prevention doesn't survive a look at how those outings actually went; three of his last four times out he was pulled at or before the fifth, which tells you Kansas City knows he's walking a tightrope too. Behind him is a bullpen that's been the worst part of this roster all year — Erceg and Lange have both been getting lit up, and the arms Quatraro actually trusts got run into the ground in Colorado over the weekend. Joe Ryan hasn't been sharp, and I'm not pretending otherwise: three straight starts of getting hit, including a half-dozen home runs in one afternoon at Cleveland. But the thing killing him is balls leaving the yard, and this is the yard where that stops. Kansas City's outfield is where fly balls go to die, and a pitcher whose whole profile is contact in the air is walking into the friendliest ballpark on the schedule. The lineups back it up. Kansas City is without Pasquantino and without Maikel Garcia, and Witt is coming off nearly two weeks out with a back issue and no minor league tune-up — a real bat, but a cold one on night one. Jensen and Caglianone have been quiet for two weeks. Minnesota's the deeper team, they added arms at the deadline that shorten this game, and they've been outplaying Kansas City on both sides of the ball for a month. The Royals have lost four straight and have been terrible all season in games after a loss. I know this series has been a knife fight — that's exactly why I'm not giving up the run and a half. Straight up to win at a fair price is where I want it. **Twins moneyline, -140.**

Minnesota Twins ML-140

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63%

MLB7:40 PM

Pirates @ Brewers

Tuesday night in Milwaukee, indoors, and the home team is in first place but just took a punch from a team sitting right at .500. The Pirates won the opener by a run and have now taken six of the last seven meetings between these two this season. Milwaukee comes into game two on a two-game losing streak with a lineup that has gone cold at the worst possible time. The betting line says Brewers, and it has said Brewers every time these two have met this year. It keeps being wrong. Here's what I see. Jared Jones is bringing serious heat and a breaking ball hitters miss more often than not, and he's been at his best for about a month now — a long stretch of innings with barely any damage and a pile of strikeouts over his last three starts. Logan Henderson is very good, I won't argue that, but right now he's a five-inning guy; he hasn't gotten through the sixth in any of his last six outings. That means Milwaukee hands the last four innings to a bullpen that lost an arm this morning and leaned hard on Ashby last night. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, shows up with a relief group that looks completely different than it did a week ago — Weaver, Yates, Doval and Bachar are all fresh tonight. In a game shaped like this one, the late innings decide it, and I like who Pittsburgh has coming out of that pen. The hitting tells the same story from the other side. The top of Milwaukee's order — Chourio, Mitchell, Contreras, Yelich — has been struggling as a group for two weeks, the team has barely scratched out runs over its last five games, and the one guy who was carrying that lineup can't play. Do I love that Pittsburgh sends up six left-handed bats against a pitcher who handles lefties well? No. That's the honest risk here, and it's why this is a smaller play and not a hammer. But I'm getting underdog money on a team that has owned this matchup, has the fresher bullpen, and is facing a starter on a short leash in a game that looks like it stays low-scoring. Give me the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates ML+132

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60%

MLB8:05 PM

Dodgers @ Cubs

Wrigley on a partly cloudy August night, the wind drifting out to left, and the best left-handed pitcher in the game walks out of a visitor's dugout he's never used before. Tarik Skubal, four days a Dodger, making his first career start on the North Side. Los Angeles has dropped four in a row and got beat up in the opener. Chicago just loaded up at the trade deadline and the park will be packed. And the price on the road favorite actually got cheaper between this morning and first pitch. That's my kind of spot. I'm not paying for the Dodgers' recent record here — I'm paying for the arm. Skubal throws hard and has a changeup hitters swing right through about half the time they go after it, and this season right-handed hitters have had a harder time with him, not an easier one. Chicago's lineup is loaded with righties tonight because that's the automatic move against a lefty, and I think it's the wrong move against this particular lefty. Meanwhile, Javier Assad's run prevention looks better than the pitching under the hood — hitters square him up hard often enough that it tends to catch up with you, his main sinker is a pitch nobody misses even though he leans on it constantly, and left-handed hitters have taken him deep an awful lot in limited chances. The Dodgers are sending Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and a switch-hitter at him. Freeman's been red hot for two weeks. Ohtani has done real damage on sinkers all year. Assad hasn't been going deep into games lately, and the Cubs bullpen behind him is shakier than the standings make it look. The concerns are real: a new catcher who's never caught him, a ballpark he's never worked in, and a Chicago club playing loose and free. That's exactly why the price came down — the market charged him for debut nerves, and handed me a better ticket on the team I already wanted. Losing streaks end. They end fastest when you hand the ball to your best pitcher and the other guy has to grind through five innings against a lineup built to hurt him. Dodgers on the moneyline.

Dodgers ML-186

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70%

MLB8:05 PM

Giants @ Rangers

The roof's closed in Arlington, so the heat outside doesn't matter. What does matter is that Texas walks out having lost six in a row — their worst stretch of the year, a manager who said last night was the ugliest they've played, and a home ballpark that's barely seen them score at all during it. San Francisco shows up off a big win and a wild day and a half for the franchise. That's the story everybody sees, and it's why this price has crept down a little in the Giants' favor. The losing streak is setting the number. It shouldn't be. Look at who San Francisco is actually putting in the batter's box. Six major leaguers were traded away Monday. Arraez is a Phillie, Ramos is a Yankee, Eldridge is hurt with a bruised thumb, Chapman's been out a month. What's left is Jung Hoo Lee, who's swinging great right now, a hot Susac, Basabe coming off a couple of homers, and then a bottom of the order — Kennedy, Leonard, McCray, Koss — that was in the minors a week ago. And the one hitter you'd actually worry about, Devers, has been lost against lefties all year and is walking into a lefty starter. MacKenzie Gore had a rough July and he's giving up too many home runs, but he still misses plenty of bats, and this is the weakest lineup he'll see the rest of the summer. The other side matters just as much. Blade Tidwell was in the minors on Sunday, leans hard on one breaking pitch, and Texas stacked five lefty bats against him — Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, Lopez. Whatever he gives them won't last long, and the bullpen behind him just traded away its closer and one of its best setup guys two days ago, with Hentges and Winn already used on back-to-back nights. That's a lot of innings to cover with leftover arms on the sixth game of a seven-game trip. The risk is real: this Texas offense hasn't been scoring, so if Gore gets hit early, it's over quickly. That's why it's not a max bet. But I like the side, and the losing streak is buying me a better price. **Rangers moneyline.**

Rangers ML-187

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63%

MLB8:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Astros

Roof was closed, temperature was comfortable, and none of that matters — this game comes down to who's pitching. Houston came into Monday night on a six-game winning streak and walked out of it having stranded a pile of runners in a one-run loss. Now they're giving the ball to a guy making just his second start back from elbow surgery that cost him more than a year, and they've already said out loud that they're going to be careful with him. That's the whole bet right there. Hayden Wesneski is on a short leash on purpose — Houston is planning to get four or more innings out of the bullpen tonight, so once you get past their closer, the game belongs to a relief group that gives up a lot of runs and puts a lot of guys on base. Meanwhile, Trey Yesavage is the better pitcher here, and it's not close. His splitter and slider are both making hitters swing and miss at a high rate, he's keeping lefties and righties alike from hitting much of anything, and the deeper numbers say he's pitched better than his run total suggests. The rookie does have a walk problem that shows up in ugly stretches — I've seen him hand out seven free passes in a night — but over his last three starts he's struck out far more guys than he's walked, which tells me his control is heading in the right direction, not the wrong one. Where I make my money is the price. This game opened with Toronto as a modest underdog and the payout has gotten better since, and nothing actually happened in between — nobody got scratched, no pitching change, no news. That's people betting the bounce-back story and betting Varsho facing his old team, and it pushed me onto the side I already liked at a better payout than I'd have gotten this morning. I'm not pretending there's no risk: Toronto's offense has been quiet for two weeks, Yordan Alvarez is scorching hot and has always mashed in that ballpark, and if Houston's bullpen holds, the Jays might not score enough. That's a real way to lose this. But I'll take the better starting pitcher, the bigger payout, and a market that moved on a narrative instead of actual news. Blue Jays to win the game outright.

Blue Jays ML+128

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62%

MLB8:40 PM

Rays @ Rockies

Tuesday night in Denver, thin air, warm out, and a breeze blowing toward right field. The Rays are up in this series after a huge scoring night, and the price on them has been climbing all day. That climb didn't come from anything that happened on the field. It came from a name. Freddy Peralta is that name, and he's making his first start for Tampa Bay in the toughest ballpark in baseball to debut in. He's a fastball-and-spin guy — most of what he throws is the heater, and the rest of the mix leans on breaking stuff that needs the air to cooperate, which it doesn't here. He hasn't gotten through a sixth inning since June, and July was rough on him. Lefty hitters have been the ones hurting him all year, and Colorado stacks McCarthy, Carrigg, Moniak and Rumfield right at the top of the order with Goodman behind them. On the other side, Gabriel Hughes has looked more at home at this altitude, getting into the fifth and sixth and keeping hitters from squaring him up. Nobody's saying he's the better pitcher in a vacuum. Tonight isn't a vacuum. Tonight is Coors. What I'm buying is a price built on two records in the standings instead of two starting pitchers. Colorado has put up big crooked numbers three straight games at home and their bats are awake in this park. I'll be straight about the risk — if Hughes hands it off in the sixth, Colorado's bullpen is the shakiest part of this whole thing, and Tampa's late-inning arms are rested and real. That's exactly why this is a moneyline and not a bigger swing. But a home underdog paying better than even money, in the highest-scoring yard in the sport, against a starter who has to solve altitude on his first day with a new team, wins this one more often than the price says. Rockies, straight up.

Colorado Rockies ML+159

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58%

MLB9:40 PM

Tigers @ Mariners

Late game in Seattle with the roof shut and the air kept cool and comfortable inside. Detroit just got their best pitcher taken from them at the trade deadline, and then went out and buried Oakland three straight games. Nobody told the Tigers they were supposed to quit. They're a couple games out of a playoff spot with fifty left to play, and they walk into Seattle tonight as the team nobody's picking. That's my side. It starts with the starting pitchers, because that's the whole bet. Troy Melton brings serious velocity, a cutter that hitters basically can't touch, and a slider that makes guys swing through it constantly — and the underlying stuff says he's for real, not a fluke. Emerson Hancock is the mirror image: his run prevention looks fine on the surface, but hitters are absolutely crushing his sinker and squaring him up at an alarming rate. That bill always comes due. Detroit's hitters are exactly the group to collect on it — McGonigle, Greene, and Torres all punish sinkers, and Hancock leans on that pitch constantly. Seattle was trying to trade him at the deadline for a reason. On the other side, the lineup Melton faces is one of the worst-hitting groups in the league, barely scratching out runs, with their best bat ice cold and Taylor Ward showing up in a slump of his own. I'm not paying for that weekend explosion — that was a hot afternoon in a hitter's park against a bad pitching staff, and a closed roof at night here is the total opposite. I don't need a blowout. I need the better pitcher and the better lineup, and I'm getting both while being paid extra to take the road team. The market's already moving my way — Detroit's price has shortened since this morning, which tells me the number was off and the world is figuring that out in real time. Tigers to win outright, and I'd have taken it at a worse price too.

Detroit Tigers ML+111

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63%

MLB9:40 PM

Padres @ Diamondbacks

The roof's shut in Phoenix, it's the second of four between these two, and San Diego rolls in hot after winning most of their last ten — but they're still chasing Arizona in the standings. Arizona won the opener comfortably and now hands the ball to one of the best arms in the league. San Diego counters with a guy who hasn't started in a week and a half. That's the whole game, and the price says it's basically even money. Randy Vásquez is why I'm on this. His last three outings have been a mess — barely getting through games while giving up a pile of runs — and the stuff underneath looks even uglier: hitters are squaring him up hard, he's stopped missing bats, and he's handing out free passes. Lefties have hammered him all year, and Torey Lovullo has Carroll, Perdomo, Kepler, Marte and Nootbaar stacked at the top tonight. Vásquez hasn't gotten through five innings in most of his recent starts. So this turns into a bullpen game by the middle, and San Diego's relievers just used Peralta and Estrada on back-to-back days with Adam on the long-term shelf. Mason Miller can lock down one inning, not four. The flip side: Eduardo Rodriguez has worked deep into games in three of his last four and has been excellent at Chase Field. I know the underlying contact numbers say he's caught some breaks, and I know Tatis has gotten him twice — in a small sample. I'm not ignoring it. But Machado has almost never touched him over his career for a reason, and that changeup is still making hitters swing through it plenty. Add in McCann catching and swinging a hot bat, a ballpark that gives you offense, and a home team that's been well above water in this building. At this price I'm getting a discount on the better pitcher, the longer start and the fresher bullpen. Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks ML-115

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63%

Player props

MLB · Angels @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

This is one of the cleaner matchups on the board. Alonso is an .858 OPS, 18-homer bat against right-handed pitching, and Rodriguez has been openly hittable from that side all year — .256 with an .854 OPS allowed to right-handers, with the loud-contact numbers to back it up. His recent batted-ball mix has trended toward more barrels, not fewer. Warm night at Camden, and I like him to find two bases some way tonight.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+110

MLB · Angels @ Orioles

Jackson Holliday

Holliday is running a .925 OPS over his last two weeks, and tonight he draws a right-hander who's been brutalized by left-handed bats all season — an OPS allowed north of 1.000 from that side. Even money for a hitter already clearing this number in close to half his games over a hot stretch, against the exact look that's fed the hot stretch, is a price I'll take.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+100

MLB · Athletics @ Reds

Tyler Stephenson

Stephenson is hitting .438 over his last seven games and .323 over his last fifteen, and all of that damage has come during this current homestand — his season-long home split is actually worse than his road split, so the number that matters here is the one happening right now, not the one from April. The exit velocity backs the average up: 96.1 miles an hour on average contact recently with two barrels in just ten balls in play, which is loud contact, not a bloop-and-bleeder stretch. He's also taken Ginn deep before in a small sample, and his career numbers are meaningfully better against right-handers than lefties, which is exactly what he's getting tonight. Short price, but he's earned it — I just need one hit from a catcher running as hot as anyone in this lineup.

OVER 0.5 Hits-190

MLB · Athletics @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart is the hottest bat in this lineup — three home runs and nine RBIs in his last seven games — and the profile behind it backs the surface numbers up. With runners in scoring position this season he's hitting .304 with a .988 OPS and eleven home runs, and with the bases loaded he's driven in nine runs in eight at-bats.

OVER 0.5 RBI+165

MLB · Mets @ Guardians

Joey Cantillo

Cantillo hasn't finished the fifth in any of his last six starts — the innings line over that stretch reads 4.0, 3.2, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, four of the six landing at exactly five innings and none going beyond it. One of those was a start against Cincinnati where he struck out eight and allowed one hit and still only got four innings of work in. Whatever's dictating the workload, it isn't tied to how well he's pitching. Fifteen and a half outs is above the ceiling he's actually been working under.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-141

MLB · Mets @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

Kwan doesn't hit for much power over a full season, but right now he can't miss — nine hits in his last seven games, seventeen in his last fifteen, and he's barely swinging and missing at anything. Ten of his last fifteen games have gone for multiple total bases even with a contact-first approach, which tells you doubles are showing up alongside the singles. Manaea's fastball is his primary weapon and hitters are batting .214 against it — a table-setter seeing the ball this well against a pitch that gets put in play that easily is live for extra bases at plus money.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+160

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Jesus Luzardo

Luzardo's July has been about as clean as a starter throws it — outside of one bad night in Miami, he's kept almost every outing to a run or less. Washington walks in without their best bat, cold as a lineup gets right now, and I haven't seen them solve a good arm early in over a week. I don't need him perfect for six, I just need this group to not find two runs before the bullpen takes over, and I don't trust them to do it tonight.

UNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+110

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Carson Palmquist

Washington doesn't have the pitching depth to protect a long leash right now — Gray, Herz and Parker are all down, which is exactly the situation that gets a young arm pushed out there and pulled fast the moment it turns. Palmquist hasn't finished two full innings in three of his last five turns, and both his fastball and sinker are getting hit hard when he leaves them where he's been leaving them. Philadelphia's lineup works counts and doesn't miss mistakes. I don't see him finishing the third.

UNDER 5.5 Pitcher Outs+135

MLB HR · Athletics @ Reds

JJ Bleday

Bleday turns into a different hitter once he's back in this yard — nearly all his thump this year has come at home, and tonight he's got a right-hander who's had a clean track record against righties and a rough one against lefties all season. Ginn is also making his first start in close to a month after time off for a hand issue, exactly the kind of return start where command can lag before the rust shakes off. Bleday's been quiet on average the last couple weeks, but the ball's still carrying when he connects, and this ballpark doesn't ask much to get one out. I like him getting to one against a pitcher who's historically leaked homers to lefties, in the building where he does his best work.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+322

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

Grayson Rodriguez is walking into this one leaning on a fastball that's getting hit at a .372 clip and giving up hard contact more than half the time he's on the mound, and his last three starts have only trended worse — a 9.00 ERA stretch, not a blip. That's the kind of arm Alonso should eat. He's carrying an .858 OPS and 18 home runs against right-handed pitching this season, he's slugging .830 with 14 of those homers at Camden Yards specifically, and he's been locked in the last two weeks at a .829 clip. Every piece of this lines up in the same direction.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+290

MLB HR · Athletics @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better right now than Stewart. Three home runs in his last week isn't a fluke streak — he's been squaring the ball up hard and consistently, and all year he's been the kind of hitter who turns it up several notches with runners on base.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+380

MLB HR · Mets @ Guardians

Francisco Lindor

Lindor's swing has been the best thing in that lineup for three weeks. Fifteen games, three home runs, an OPS near .950, and it's backed by real contact quality — he's been squaring balls up at high exit velocity all stretch, not just getting lucky bounces. He switches over to the right side against a lefty like Cantillo, and Cantillo's the rare arm here who's actually been more hittable for power against righties than lefties — the curveball and changeup have missed bats against everybody, but the fastball and cutter have given right-handed hitters real openings, and that's exactly where Lindor sits tonight. No history between the two, but a bat this hot doesn't need it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Athletics @ Reds

Lawrence Butler

Brady Singer's platoon problem is written all over his season — lefties have hit him hard and often, righties have not — and Butler is exactly the bat built to keep that trend going tonight. He's been hitting for a high average with real contact quality behind it the last couple weeks, not just finding holes. Singer walks into tonight fresh off a very public trade saga that ended with him staying in Cincinnati instead of getting dealt, after being all but promised to be moved — that's not nothing to carry into a start. Put a left-handed bat squaring the ball up well against a pitcher who struggles with exactly that look, in a park that helps hitters, and I want that matchup on my card.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+380

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

The one thing that gives me pause is that he hasn't gone deep against a right-hander all season in 23 at-bats. I'm weighing that, not ignoring it — but I'm also not letting a 23 at-bat sample override a .579 slugging mark and a .369 expected wOBA, numbers that say the contact quality is real regardless of which side the pitcher throws from.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB HR · Mets @ Guardians

Rhys Hoskins

Hoskins has gone deep three times in his last twenty at-bats — that's a hitter doing real damage right now, not someone cashing in on one lucky week. He's right-handed against Manaea, and Manaea's been a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate is hitting: right-handers have beaten him for close to 140 points more OPS than lefties have, with most of the home run damage coming from that side. Manaea's also been giving up hard contact often enough this season that it isn't noise. A hot bat lined up against the exact split working against the pitcher — I like the shape of this, even knowing a home run prop is always one swing from missing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+434

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Gunnar Henderson

Rodriguez's real problem this year is left-handed hitters — a 1.054 OPS and four home runs allowed in just 96 at-bats against them, about as clear a hole as a pitcher can have. Henderson swings from that side and hits in the middle of an Orioles order that's going to see Rodriguez multiple times through the lineup tonight. The board backs that read too — he's priced shorter than every other Oriole left-hander on this card facing the same pitcher. I'm backing the platoon split here.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+340

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Hunter Dobbins

Dobbins has cleared four strikeouts in every one of his last seven starts, and tonight's Yankees lineup is about as favorable as it gets for him — seven lefty bats out of nine, and lefties are hitting .231 with a .634 OPS against him this year. He doesn't need a career night to get there; he's done it every single time out, and this matchup makes it easier, not harder.

OVER 3.5 Strikeouts-162

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Ryan Weathers

Weathers has gotten through six innings exactly once in his last six starts. Everything else has come up short of eighteen outs, and he's carried a home ERA over a run higher than his road number all year. Yankee Stadium is exactly where his rope has been shortest. I don't need him to pitch badly tonight — just to keep doing what he's already been doing.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs+112

MLB HR · Cardinals @ Yankees

Spencer Jones

Jones has three home runs in his last week, and the underlying contact isn't lying about it — he's barreling balls at an elite rate right now with exit velocity to match. He's a left-handed hitter with real power pulling into the short right-field fence at Yankee Stadium. This is a swing-and-miss profile, but when he connects it goes a long way, and the price pays well for that.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+540

MLB · White Sox @ Red Sox

Patrick Sandoval

Every one of his four starts back from Tommy John has topped out at five innings or less — 5.0, 4.2, 5.0, 4.1 — and he's never once reached this number in a game log. Boston's staff has him on a pitch count in the high 60s to low 80s and said outright they didn't expect a 95-pitch outing from him this early in the return. Nothing in four trips through his own logs suggests the leash gets longer tonight.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-118

MLB · White Sox @ Red Sox

Ceddanne Rafaela

He's the reason Boston swept the West Coast trip — four home runs in three games against the Dodgers, and he's still squaring the ball up. He's cleared a base and a half in ten of his last fifteen games, and the price still pays plus money for it. Davis Martin's cutter and changeup have both gotten hit hard all season, and that's real contact for a hitter who's already locked in. His home numbers at Fenway are quieter than his road split, but the Monster still turns line drives into extra bases, and right now he doesn't need much room to do damage.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+108

MLB HR · White Sox @ Red Sox

Ceddanne Rafaela

Four home runs in his last three games is about as hot as a bat gets, and it's a swing built for a short wall in left. I don't expect that pace to hold at its current rate, but even a fraction of this power surge carrying into tonight makes plus-six-fifty worth being on. He's already gone deep in six of his last fifteen games — this price is built for a much colder stretch than the one he's actually on.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Marlins @ Braves

Matt Olson

Thirty-one homers, tied for fourth in the league, and he's not cooling off — four in his last six games, three straight before Sunday's finale against Washington. His own manager said it plainly this week: he changes the game in the box. The split that jumps out is night versus day — .928 OPS under the lights against .781 in daytime, and this one goes at 7:15 under Truist's lights.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+320

MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Kyle Stowers

Stowers is running as hot as anyone in this lineup — three home runs in his last seven games, four over his last fifteen, and his exit velocity has climbed right along with it, sitting near 94 mph average with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play. He does his damage against right-handers specifically: .854 OPS and fifteen of his sixteen homers have come against them, and Gusto throws right-handed while getting hit hard all season — a 45 percent hard-hit rate allowed. Getting plus money on a hitter in this kind of form to clear a total base and a half is a number worth taking, even though the head-to-head history with Gusto himself is thin.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115

MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Grant Holmes

The market has Holmes at a coin flip to clear four and a half strikeouts, but he's actually gone under that number in six of his last eight starts, and his last three outings have averaged fewer than four punchouts each. Part of it is workload — he's been capped around five innings a start lately, which only gives him so many hitters to work through. Part of it is who he's facing: Otto Lopez and Javier Sanoja, both in tonight's lineup, have been putting the bat on the ball at a high rate in their recent games, and Holmes will see that stretch of the order more than once if he goes deep. His slider still misses bats when everything's working, but the recent innings totals and the contact-oriented parts of this lineup point toward staying under the number, not clearing it.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts+100

MLB · Twins @ Royals

Royce Lewis

Lewis is squaring the ball up as well as anyone on this roster right now — his exit velocity and barrel rate over the last couple weeks are near the top of the lineup, and the results have followed with homers in two of his last three games and six RBI over his last week. I'm laying real money to get this number, but this isn't a hitter running hot on empty contact. The underlying quality backs up the production, and I don't see a reason it stops against a pitcher who doesn't miss many bats.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-137

MLB · Twins @ Royals

Salvador Perez

Perez has four home runs over his last fifteen games and has already cleared two total bases in ten of them. That's not a name carrying reputation into a game, that's a bat that's actually locked in right now. He's an aggressive swinger who will expand the zone more than I'd like, but Ryan hasn't had the stuff lately to make anyone pay for chasing. I'll ride the hitter who's already doing damage against the pitcher who can't put hitters away.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+134

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Trevor Larnach

Larnach has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, with a home run in each of his last two starts alone. He's a completely different hitter against right-handed pitching than he is against lefties, and Dobnak's fastball and sinker both sit in the low nineties without much to hide them. This is a power number priced like a longshot, but a hitter running this hot against a pitcher this hittable is exactly the kind of gap I want to take a swing at.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Nick Gonzales

Gonzales is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in that lineup right now, hitting right around .300 over his last stretch and doing it from the side of the plate where he's not fighting the matchup. Henderson's changeup is the pitch that's given lefties nightmares all year — Gonzales doesn't have to deal with that same problem. He's not in a slump, he's not chasing out of the zone, and this is about as clean a look at one hit as this board offers tonight.

OVER 0.5 Hits-157

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Logan Henderson

Henderson's changeup is the separator here, and it's death on left-handed bats specifically. Pittsburgh is running out a lineup that hits from the left side almost top to bottom tonight between the true lefties and the switch-hitters, which puts him right in his best matchup of the month. He struck out nine two starts back and seven his last time out, and this Pirates group swings and misses more than it walks. I like the strikeout number at even money.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+100

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is running the hottest stretch on either roster — 11 hits in his last 22 at-bats with two homers mixed in, and he's slotted into the leadoff spot tonight instead of his usual spot in the order, which means more trips to the plate, not fewer. Assad has handled right-handers fine this year, but lefties are a different problem for him: nine home runs allowed in barely 130 at-bats, a platoon split wide enough to matter. Ohtani hits left-handed. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs isn't a heavy ask from a bat seeing extra pitches at the top of the order against a pitcher with a real, demonstrated issue against hitters standing on that side of the plate.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI-106

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Tarik Skubal

First start in a Dodgers uniform, but nothing about how he's pitching suggests an adjustment period. Twenty-seven strikeouts across his last three outings, whiff rates sitting in the 35-45% range for most of that stretch, and a changeup that's missed bats at a 52% clip on the year. The Cubs strike out more as a team than the Dodgers do, and Wrigley doesn't change what a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s curve do when they're locating like this. Eight strikeouts has been a quiet night for him lately, not a stretch.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts+118

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani is in the lineup tonight, batting leadoff at DH, so whatever's been said about the knee and the arm this week hasn't kept him off the field in Chicago. He's been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last week — eleven hits in twenty-two at-bats, two home runs, an OPS near 1.500 — and that stretch is walking into a matchup built for it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+215

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Trea Turner

Palmquist takes the mound with a 7.31 ERA and his last three outings have gone for double-digit runs allowed combined. He's not overpowering anyone either — fastball sitting low 90s, and his cutter has been hit at a .333 clip this year. That's the arm Turner faces tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki already got to this Dodgers pitching staff last night with a two-run homer, and tonight's matchup sets up even better for him. He's a .991 OPS hitter against left-handed pitching this season with seven home runs in limited at-bats, and tonight he draws a lefty in Tarik Skubal, who's making his first start in a Dodgers uniform after being traded over from Detroit. Skubal leans on his four-seamer and sinker for more than half his pitches, and those are exactly the two pitches Suzuki has handled best all year — he's hitting .379 against the sinker specifically. He's eight-for-twenty-two over the last week with a homer and five RBI, and the wind blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight isn't going to help anyone trying to keep him in the yard.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Esmerlyn Valdez

Valdez is slugging .623 with an expected slugging over .500 — about as strong a power indicator as anyone on this board carries into tonight. He's gone deep in three of his last fifteen games, and he's a right-handed bat stepping in against a pitcher who's actually been more hittable against righties than lefties this season.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+383

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Bryce Harper

Harper is the hottest bat in this lineup — four home runs and well over a thousand OPS points in his last fifteen games, and his underlying contact numbers say he's actually earned even more than that. The one thing I won't ignore is that he's a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher tonight, and his power drops off substantially against lefties this season compared to what he does against right-handers. Palmquist hasn't shown a real platoon tendency in his own small body of work, so I'm not leaning on that to cancel it out. I like Harper enough to take this number, just without maxing out my conviction on it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Brandon Lowe

Lowe is the hottest bat on this board. He's hitting .300 with two home runs over his last week, averaging 90.8 mph off the bat with three barreled balls among his last twenty in play — that's the kind of contact quality that tends to keep producing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Brice Turang

Turang against a right-hander is a different hitter than Turang against a lefty — fifteen home runs and a .912 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, against one homer and a .583 OPS versus lefties. Jones is a righty tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

MacKenzie Gore

Gore's stuff is fine — he's missing bats — but he hasn't finished six innings in five of his last six starts. The trouble hasn't been walks, it's been hard contact piling up pitch counts; he's allowed two homers in four of those outings. That's a guy getting into traffic and coming out in the fifth, not the sixth. Nothing about tonight's matchup changes that pattern for me, and Texas's bullpen has been getting steady work, so I don't expect the club to push him past his recent line just because they need length.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs+149

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

Joc Pederson

Pederson has feasted on right-handed pitching for years, and tonight he gets a righty making his first real look at a big league lineup. He's got four homers in his last two weeks and he's leading off, so he's guaranteed his at-bats. Plus money on total bases for a hitter with this kind of platoon history against this matchup is the number I want.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+138

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez is hitting .413 with a 1.311 OPS over his last fifteen days, and it's not just empty average — nineteen home runs at home this season, and a .543 expected weighted average specifically against four-seam fastballs. Yesavage throws that exact pitch almost half the time, and by his own numbers it's the one offering in his mix that gets hit — .329 expected wOBA allowed on the fastball, well behind what his splitter and slider are doing to everybody else. That's the best hitter in this lineup getting the one pitch he does the most damage on, from the pitcher who leans on it most. Even money for two total bases out of a hitter running this hot at home is a number worth taking.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+100

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Trey Yesavage

Two of Yesavage's last three starts ended in nine strikeouts. The other one, his most recent turn against Washington, he settled for four — pitching to contact instead of blowing it by people, and it still worked, one earned run in six-plus innings.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-105

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Willi Castro

Castro's swinging it as well as anyone in this lineup right now — seven for eighteen with two homers over his last week, a 1.333 OPS in that stretch, eleven for forty with three homers and a .970 OPS across his last fifteen days. He's a switch-hitter, so he gets the left-handed box against Peralta tonight, and Peralta is the one starter in this game who's been getting hurt by lefties specifically all year. A bat running this hot has cleared a hit-run-RBI combined in twelve of his last fifteen games, and the price still isn't asking me to lay anything for it. I don't need much more than a hot hitter, a favorable side of the plate, and a number the market hasn't caught up to yet.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+109

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Gabriel Hughes

Hughes has quietly turned a corner. Three and a half earned runs is a number he hasn't touched in any of his last five starts — not once.

UNDER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-140

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Mickey Moniak

Moniak is a left-handed bat walking into the exact matchup he wants. Peralta's been getting taken deep by lefties all year — thirteen home runs allowed in two hundred ninety-seven at-bats, an .811 OPS against — and Moniak specifically punishes right-handed pitching, a .946 OPS and sixteen home runs in two hundred nine at-bats against arms throwing from that side this year.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+361

MLB · Tigers @ Mariners

Troy Melton

Eleven starts into this season and Melton still hasn't found a bad month — 1.42 in May, 2.88 in June, then 0.92 in July, and the shape of it keeps improving as the workload builds. His last three outings: 17.2 innings, three earned runs, nineteen strikeouts against ten walks. That's not a hot streak riding batted-ball luck, that's a pitcher who's turned a mid-90s fastball plus a cutter and slider into something opposing lineups have to earn their way through.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-159

MLB · Tigers @ Mariners

Spencer Torkelson

Torkelson's driven in eleven runs across his last fifteen games and seven of those came in just the last week — a .391 average with a .965 OPS over that stretch, and he's doing it without expanding the zone, an 18 percent chase rate that says the contact is earned, not lucky. He bats sixth behind a lineup that's put up thirty-two runs over its last three games combined, which means traffic on the bases in front of him most nights right now. Plus money on a guy running a real RBI streak, hitting behind an offense that keeps putting people on. I'm taking the number.

OVER 0.5 RBI+225

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Randy Vasquez

Three starts back for Vásquez and the damage is ugly — nine innings, eleven earned runs, and he hasn't made it through the fifth in four of his last six trips to the mound. Left-handed bats have hit .318 with an .895 OPS against him this year, and Arizona sends out Carroll, Perdomo, Kepler and Marte in the top four, all lefty or switch bats standing on the left side against him tonight.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-165

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Eduardo Rodriguez

Rodriguez has been a horse at Chase Field all year — 2.47 ERA in eleven starts here — and he's gone at least six innings in five of his last six turns, including eight in his last time out against Pittsburgh. His whiff rate has climbed in each of his last four starts, up to 24 percent his last time out, which tells me he's missing more bats now than he was a month ago, not fewer. San Diego just burned Peralta and Estrada on back-to-back nights and Jason Adam is gone for the year to the sixty-day, so there's real incentive for this staff to let their best arm work deep tonight rather than hand it to a taxed pen. Seventeen and a half outs is basically his floor at home right now.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-154

MLB HR · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis has gone deep twice against Rodriguez in his career, albeit in a small sample, and he's shown real pop lately, going deep in three of his last fifteen games. Rodriguez has actually been more homer-prone against right-handed bats this season — ten home runs allowed in 339 at-bats against righties compared to three in 146 against lefties — and Tatis swings from the right side. This is a power bet at power-bet odds, but the specific history against this pitcher and the specific split both point the same direction, and plus five-twenty-five pays enough to make it worth the swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

Hub research

174

cut_listHOU tonight
Hayden Wesneski
Starts tonight for HOU — 8.37 xERA behind a 4.76 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
starter_team_recordLAD @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Assad's last eight starts, but the Dodgers are a sharper lineup than most of what built that number. Worth seeing if it holds against real competition tonight.
starter_team_recordDET @ SEA
Tigers 7-1 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Melton's dragged Detroit to a 7-1 mark over his last eight starts, five wins running, and the peripherals actually back a good chunk of it — sub-1 WHIP, better than a strikeout an inning. The ERA's a shade better than it should be, but this isn't empty smoke.
starter_team_recordPIT @ MIL
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Henderson's turned every fifth day into a near-lock for Milwaukee — seven straight wins with him on the mound, 7-1 over his last eight. Hard streak to bet against.
starter_team_recordWSH @ PHI
Nationals 1-7 in Zack Littell's last 8 starts
Littell's team has dropped five straight with him starting, and it's 1-7 in his last eight overall. Tough trend to reverse walking into Philadelphia tonight.
platoon_edgeWSH @ PHI
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Crews leading off against a lefty is exactly the matchup his numbers want — .966 against southpaws versus .554 against everyone else. And it's Luzardo he's getting, a pitcher who's been getting hit hard in his own ballpark specifically.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Hayden Wesneski (RHP)
Lukes hitting leadoff against a righty is the good version of him — .771 against right-handers compared to .359 against lefties in a smaller sample. Wesneski's exactly the hand he's built to handle.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cut_listSF tonight
Buddy Kennedy
Still hitting 6th for SF — 0.276 OPS, 0.059 AVG from the 6-hole.
head_to_headPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 6-1 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's owned this season series with Milwaukee, 6-1, with a 4-3 win last time out. Doesn't change that Henderson's on the mound for the Brewers tonight, which cuts hard the other way.
head_to_headWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 7-2 vs Nationals this season
Philadelphia's already handled Washington all season, 7-2, and hung six on them last time out. Nothing in that series says the Nationals show up different tonight.
starter_team_recordSD @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 7 starts
Arizona's ridden Eduardo Rodriguez to a 6-1 mark in his last seven, four wins running. San Diego's lineup is a tougher out than the stretch that built that record.
streakingTOR @ HOU
HOU have won 6 straight
Houston's six-game streak has come with a plus-22 run differential. That's not winning close, that's burying people, and Toronto walks right into it tonight.
P team won 2-7
streakingMIA @ ATL
ATL have won 6 straight
Atlanta's six-game streak comes with a plus-14 run margin attached — that's not a team sneaking by. Real form walking into tonight against Miami.
P team won 2-4
streakingNYM @ CLE
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Mets games have gone dead quiet — six straight unders, under 5 runs a night against lines usually near 8. Tonight's number is 7.5, still asking a lot given the trend.
P final total 8 vs 7.5
cut_listLAA tonight
Grayson Rodriguez
Starts tonight for LAA — 7.92 xERA behind a 7.98 ERA.
platoon_edgeWSH @ PHI
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
House gets the same gift as Crews tonight — a lefty to face when his numbers against lefties (.974 OPS) dwarf what he does against right-handers (.546). Luzardo at Citizens Bank Park hasn't been the same pitcher he is on the road.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.283 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on a different planet the last two weeks — 1.283 OPS against a .901 season mark that was already strong. Thirteen homers on the year, and a 1.5 total-base line tonight looks light for where his bat currently is.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeMIA @ ATL
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Grant Holmes (RHP), batting 1st
Stowers leading off against a righty plays right into his split — .854 against right-handers compared to .509 against lefties. That's a real gap for a guy who's going to see more pitches than anyone else in the lineup tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgePIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang against a right-hander from the leadoff spot is the matchup his numbers want — .912 against righties, .583 against lefties. Jared Jones throws exactly the hand he does damage against.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
rest_fatigueSD @ ARI
18.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 18.7 innings over the last 3 games (German Marquez (5) and Yuki Matsui (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side won 9-4
starter_team_recordLAA @ BAL
Angels 2-6 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
Grayson Rodriguez starting hasn't been a good sign this year — 2-6 in his last eight, three losses running. Baltimore's the tougher side of tonight's matchup too.
starter_team_recordCHW @ BOS
White Sox 2-6 in Davis Martin's last 8 starts
Davis Martin taking the ball hasn't worked out for the White Sox — 2-6 in his last eight starts. Now he takes it to Boston.
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson is in the best power stretch anyone in that Atlanta lineup has had all year — three straight games with a home run coming into tonight, four in his last six, 31 on the season and tied for fourth in the league. This isn't a hot hand about to cool off, either — he's been squaring the ball up hard even on the days it hasn't left the yard, which tells me the underlying swing is exactly where it needs to be.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 3 TB
regression_watchMIN @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.04 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
A 1.04 ERA next to a 4.58 expected mark is about as wide a gap as you'll find. Dobnak's barrel rate is tame, so it's not pure carnage, but a 65-point gap between his actual and expected average doesn't hold forever — I wouldn't assume tonight's the night it corrects, just that it's living on borrowed time.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .517 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Rice has gone cold — .517 OPS over his last 15 days against a .907 season mark — but tonight's actually a plus matchup on paper, a righty in Hunter Dobbins he's historically crushed (.971 OPS vs right-handers). Good spot to snap out of it if he's going to.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
fantasy_pickupsLAA @ BAL
Pete Alonso
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.93 xERA) — .811 OPS, bats 2nd.
platoon_edgeNYM @ CLE
Jo Adell (bats R) hits 2nd against Sean Manaea (LHP)
Adell hitting second against a lefty is the good version of this matchup — .910 against southpaws compared to .593 against right-handers over a much bigger sample. Manaea's the hand he's built for.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez
Pickup vs Hayden Wesneski (8.38 xERA) — .742 OPS, bats 6th.
streakingTOR @ HOU
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Blue Jays games have gone quiet on the scoreboard — five straight unders, barely over 5 runs a night against lines usually near 8.3. Tonight's total sits even higher at 8.5 against a Houston team that's been scoring in bunches, so this one pulls in two directions.
P final total 9 vs 8.5
streakingOAK @ CIN
OAK have lost 5 straight
Oakland's been buried the last five games, outscored by 28 total. That's not a team hanging around late, that's one getting run off the field.
P team lost 4-5
platoon_edgeTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.946 OPS, 209 AB) sits well above his .627 mark the other way (51 AB). Tonight's starter Freddy Peralta throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
platoon_edgeTB @ COL
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Hicks batting cleanup against a right-hander is where his numbers say he belongs — .876 against righties compared to .515 against lefties. Gabriel Hughes is exactly the matchup he's built to punish.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSTL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Garcia hitting third against a righty is right in his wheelhouse — .931 against right-handers versus .616 against lefties in limited looks. Dobbins is the hand he wants to see.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsDodgers @ Cubs
Shohei Ohtani
Gary's Take Ohtani is in the lineup tonight, batting leadoff at DH, so whatever's been said about the knee and the arm this week hasn't kept him off the field in Chicago. He's been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last week — eleven hits in twenty-two at-bats, two home runs, an OPS near 1.500 — and that stretch is walking into a matchup built for it.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
George Springer
Pickup vs Hayden Wesneski (8.38 xERA) — .728 OPS, bats 4th.
cooling_offMIA @ ATL
Otto Lopez: .516 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
Lopez has cooled off hard — .516 OPS over his last 15 days against an .833 season mark — and tonight doesn't offer any relief. Grant Holmes and the .804 OPS he allows to right-handers is still Lopez's weaker platoon side.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
cooling_offPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .560 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Henderson
Bryan Reynolds's .560 OPS over the last 15 days (56 PA) trails his .832 season mark, down 0.272. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Henderson — his weaker side: a .823 OPS vs RHP across 276 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: 1.017 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's turned a modest .685 season line into a 1.017 OPS over his last 51 plate appearances. Sixteen home runs on the season, and right now he's a different hitter than his year-long numbers suggest.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Braves
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Stowers has been the hottest bat on either roster over the last week — three home runs in his last seven games, four over his last fifteen, and it's coming with legitimately hard contact, not just balls finding the seats. He's given right-handed pitching real problems all season, and that's exactly the matchup he draws tonight against Grant Holmes.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Daniel Susac (bats R) draws MacKenzie Gore (LHP), batting 5th
Daniel Susac carries a .948 OPS vs. Left (42 AB) against .587 the other way (90 AB), and faces LHP MacKenzie Gore from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Yordan Alvarez's vs. Right line (1.165 OPS, 296 AB) sits well above his .886 mark the other way (110 AB). Tonight's starter Trey Yesavage throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIA @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr. (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Ronald Acuna Jr.'s vs. Right line (.871 OPS, 145 AB) sits well above his .597 mark the other way (76 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Gusto throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
heat_checkCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.089 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rafaela's running a 1.089 OPS over his last 15 days against an .805 season mark — real heat, and he's already got 15 homers on the year. That 1.5 total-base line tonight looks like it hasn't caught up to how hot he's been.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Evan Carter's vs. Right line (.722 OPS, 224 AB) sits well above his .322 mark the other way (41 AB). Tonight's starter Blade Tidwell throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offCHW @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Abreu's been quiet for two weeks, .485 OPS against a .757 season mark, and Davis Martin tonight is his tougher side too at .666 against right-handers. Doesn't look like the get-right spot.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsNationals @ Phillies
Trea Turner
Gary's Take Palmquist takes the mound with a 7.31 ERA and his last three outings have gone for double-digit runs allowed combined. He's not overpowering anyone either — fastball sitting low 90s, and his cutter has been hit at a .333 clip this year.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 3 TB
platoon_edgeMIN @ KC
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Over 258 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .862 OPS versus .619 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Randy Dobnak tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
head_to_headMIA @ ATL
Braves are 5-2 vs Marlins this season
Atlanta's beaten Miami 5-2 this season and put up nine on them last time out. Add the six-game winning streak and this looks like a real gap between these two right now.
gary_hr_threatsWhite Sox @ Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
Gary's Take Rafaela isn't sneaking into this matchup on a name — he's four home runs deep into the Dodgers series alone, with a two-homer night on Saturday and three straight games leaving the yard heading into tonight. Over his last fifteen days he's hitting .339 with a 1.089 OPS.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 2 TB
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .433 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Carson Palmquist
Marsh has gone ice cold — .433 OPS over his last 15 days — and tonight he draws a lefty in Carson Palmquist, exactly the side he's struggled against all year (.640 OPS vs lefties). Tough combination to snap out of it.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .416 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Trent Grisham's in a real slide — .416 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances against a .701 season mark — and Dobbins' right arm tonight is the side that's given him the most trouble all season.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's been a completely different hitter over his last 44 plate appearances — .986 OPS compared to a .633 season line. That's a real jump, even allowing for the shorter sample.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
rest_fatigueLAD @ CHC
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Cole Irvin (6) and Kyle Hurt (2) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-5
two_start_weekColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Both turns are still ahead of him this week — Rays at home today, then a Sunday trip to face the Cardinals. Nothing's been banked yet, so this is a clean two-start week. His 2.33 xERA is the best number of any arm in this group. MUST-START — full two-start week, best xERA in the group.
fantasy_pickupsLAA @ BAL
Jackson Holliday
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.93 xERA) — .742 OPS, bats 5th.
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Jordan Walker: .567 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ryan Weathers
Walker's OPS has dropped to .567 over his last 15 days from an .834 season mark, but tonight's actually a decent bounce-back spot — Ryan Weathers is a lefty, and lefties are the one thing Walker's still hitting well (.914 OPS).
ballpark_shiftWSH @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 5.53 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 2.01 everywhere else
Luzardo turns into a different pitcher at Citizens Bank Park — 5.53 ERA there against 2.01 anywhere else he's thrown. That split is the headline walking into tonight's game in Philadelphia.
P 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
cooling_offTB @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .596 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Freddy Peralta
McCarthy's dipped to a .596 OPS over his last 15 days from an .819 season mark, and Freddy Peralta tonight is his weaker side at .783 against right-handers. Not the easiest spot to find his timing again, especially with Peralta himself coming off a rough last three starts.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.169 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is at a 1.169 OPS over his last 15 days against a .908 season mark that was already strong, with 28 homers on the year. A 0.5 total-base line tonight is about as low a bar as you'll find for a guy running this hot.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
rest_fatigueLAA @ BAL
LAA's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Brett Kerry (4) and Jose Fermin (2.7) carried the load. BAL's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-3
streakingSF @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers games have turned into track meets — four straight overs at 9.3 combined runs a night against lines near 7.5. The number's barely moved to 7.75 tonight, so the market hasn't fully caught up.
P final total 9 vs 7.5
cooling_offNYM @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .483 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Rocchio's cooled to a .483 OPS over his last 15 days from a .702 season mark, and Sean Manaea tonight is his weaker side at .657 against lefties. Doesn't look like the spot he breaks out of it.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two home starts on tap — Pirates today, Twins to close the week Sunday. Both are still in front of him. 2.67 xERA, second-best mark here, and he doesn't have to leave home to get it. MUST-START — two-start week, both at home.
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.47 ERA vs 7.22 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 4.47 ERA against a 7.22 expected ERA (2.75 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .264 vs .316 expected.
heat_checkOAK @ CIN
Lawrence Butler: .988 OPS in Last 15 Days
Butler's turned it on — .988 OPS over his last 15 days compared to a .633 season mark, one of the bigger swings on the board tonight. That 1.5 total-base line looks like it hasn't caught up to how he's actually been hitting.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
ballpark_shiftOAK @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 2.73 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.89 everywhere else
Singer at home is a different pitcher than Singer on the road — 2.73 ERA at Great American Ball Park against 5.89 everywhere else, hitters held to .234 there. Pair that with Oakland's own five-game slide and this sets up lopsided tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.47 ERA vs 7.21 xERA
Sugano's 4.47 ERA already isn't pretty, and a 7.21 expected mark says even that's flattering him — a 44.6% hard-hit rate and barrels near 14% mean hitters are squaring him up for real. Not a great profile to carry into Tampa Bay tomorrow.
cooling_offCHW @ BOS
Colson Montgomery: .415 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Montgomery's in a rough stretch, .415 OPS over his last 15 days against a .744 season mark, but tonight's actually his good side — Patrick Sandoval's a lefty, and lefties are who he's hit best all year at .873. Worth watching if he flips it around.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
cut_listWSH tonight
Zack Littell
Starts tonight for WSH — 6.12 xERA behind a 4.94 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
rest_fatigueOAK @ CIN
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Hayden Juenger (2) and Brady Basso (2) the heaviest). CIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-5
regression_watchSD @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.48 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
Rodriguez's ERA and his expected number are more than two runs apart, and an 8.8% barrel rate says some of the contact against him has had real pop. San Diego's lineup is a fair test of whether the results keep outrunning the process tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
heat_checkMIN @ KC
Salvador Perez: .869 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perez is at an .869 OPS over his last 15 days against a .639 season mark — a real jump for a guy who already has 16 homers this year. That 1.5 total-base line tonight looks beatable given how he's swinging it right now.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Teoscar Hernandez: .996 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hernandez has been locked in — .996 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .747 season mark, with 11 homers on the year. He's not walking into an easy park to keep it going, either — Assad and the Cubs have been rolling at Wrigley all season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
bullpen_fatigueSD @ ARI
San Diego Padres pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego's bullpen is thin where it counts tonight — Estrada's worked three straight days, and Morejon and Peralta have both gone twice in this stretch. Miller and Matsui are the only real fresh arms left if this one's tight late against Arizona.
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
George Springer: .954 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer's running a .954 OPS over his last 15 days against a .728 season mark, 12 homers on the year — and he's not the only one hot in that lineup, with Pena doing the same thing right behind him. His 1.5 total-base line tonight looks like it's lagging the form.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Both starts are on the road this week — at the Cubs today, at the Diamondbacks Sunday. Neither turn is used yet. 2.98 xERA, tied for the middle of this group, with the full slate still ahead. MUST-START — two-start week, both on the road.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
The Cardinals turn already came and went Monday, so what's left this week is one start — Braves at home Saturday. 2.89 xERA is a strong number, but anyone who slotted him in for two turns this week is one short. START Saturday — one turn left, not a two-start week.
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Two home starts remain — Nationals today, Blue Jays Sunday. Neither has been used. 2.98 xERA puts him in the middle of this group, and the schedule still hands him a full week of work. MUST-START — full two-start week at home.
rest_fatigueCHW @ BOS
CHW's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Noah Schultz (5) and Tyler Schweitzer (3). BOS's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-14
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
Trea Turner: .909 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's running a .909 OPS over his last 15 days, up more than two hundred points from his .697 season line, with 16 homers on the year. A 1.5 total-base number tonight feels light for where his bat currently is.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
heat_checkSTL @ NYY
Austin Wells: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 23 PA: a 1.037 OPS versus .558 for the season, 0.479 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
rest_fatigueNYM @ CLE
NYM's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Xzavion Curry (5) and Jonathan Pintaro (2). CLE's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-2
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
A road-then-home week — at the Brewers today, home for the Mets Sunday. Both starts are still ahead of him. 3.02 xERA, the midpoint of this group of arms. MUST-START — full two-start week, home-and-away split.
bullpen_fatigueLAA @ BAL
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kerry's four-inning outing was bulk length, not a normal relief stint, so he's likely off the board tonight. Zeferjahn's the only fully fresh arm left in that pen, which matters if the Angels need innings late against Baltimore.
rest_fatiguePIT @ MIL
PIT's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Gregory Soto (2.3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-4
heat_checkSF @ TEX
Jung Hoo Lee: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.037 OPS versus .794 for the season, 0.243 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
ballpark_shiftLAD @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Javier Assad pitches to a 2.22 ERA
Assad at Wrigley is close to a different pitcher — 2.22 ERA at home against 4.79 on the road, hitters hitting just .182 off him there. Combined with the Cubs' 7-1 mark in his starts, that home number carries real weight against the Dodgers tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
first_inningDET @ SEA
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of DET @ SEA
Seattle's scored a first-inning run in ten straight games, and Detroit's not far off at seven of ten — fast starts on both sides lately. Hancock's own first-inning numbers, a 1.80 ERA and .171 against, don't really match that trend, which is the interesting push-pull here.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
heat_checkNYM @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .907 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a .907 OPS versus .677 for the season, 0.23 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .569 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Carson Palmquist
Kyle Schwarber's .569 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .897 season mark, down 0.328. Tonight he draws LHP Carson Palmquist — his stronger side: a .961 OPS vs LHP across 155 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
3.26 xERA, the back half of this group by the numbers, but nothing's been played yet — two more road starts, at the Mariners tonight and at the Giants Sunday. Start him both nights, the two-start slot is worth it even at his number.
starter_formOAK @ CIN
J.T. Ginn: 6.14 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ginn's ERA has ballooned to 6.14 over his last three starts, well above his 3.46 season mark, though his WHIP in that stretch is actually a touch better than his season number — that reads as damage on contact rather than traffic problems. Shaky trend walking into tonight's game, one where Oakland is already carrying a five-game skid of its own.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.69 xERA
Lopez's 5.79 ERA against a 3.69 expected mark is one of the widest gaps out there, and it's running against him — hard contact under 31%, a barrel rate under 5%, both numbers belonging to a pitcher throwing better than his ERA says. Opponents are hitting nearly sixty points higher than the contact quality suggests they should. Tomorrow against Cincinnati, I'd expect the results to start catching up to how well he's actually pitching.
starter_formNYM @ CLE
Joey Cantillo: 6.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cantillo's WHIP has jumped nearly half a run over his season number across his last three outings, and the ERA's followed at 6.39. Pitcher trending the wrong way walking into the Mets tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
two_start_weekTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/3
Ian Seymour
Monday's start at the Rockies is already in the book, leaving one turn this week — at the Mariners Saturday. 3.35 xERA is the highest number in this group, and with only one start left there's less week to lean on him. START Saturday — one turn left, plan the rest of the roster around a single start.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.69 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 5.79 ERA against a 3.69 expected ERA (2.1 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .218 expected.
two_start_weekToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/3
Trey Yesavage
Two road starts remain — at the Astros today, at the Phillies Sunday. Neither's been used, so it's a full two-start week. 3.33 xERA, second-highest of this bunch, but he's still in that top tier of arms worth building a week around. MUST-START — two-start week, both on the road.
closer_watchCHW @ BOS
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 5 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.
regression_watchTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .228 xBA
Moniak's hitting .277 against a .228 expected average over 283 plate appearances, and his wOBA tells the same story — .371 against a .304 expected mark. That's a season built on more than just the quality of contact he's making.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
starter_formTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eleven earned runs across his last three starts is a rough stretch by any measure — Peralta's WHIP and ERA are both running well past his already-shaky season numbers. Whatever's going on right now has shown up in a hurry.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
closer_watchLAA @ BAL
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 4 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
closer_watchMIN @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
closer_watchLAD @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Caleb Thielbar
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Caleb Thielbar 3. The role is live.
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Erik Miller / Ryan Walker
Shared ninth in SF: Erik Miller 4 saves, Ryan Walker 3. The role is live.
closer_watchLAA @ BAL
Mitch Farris / Sam Bachman
Shared ninth in LAA: Mitch Farris 1 saves, Sam Bachman 1. The role is live.
rest_fatigueSTL @ NYY
NYY's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Angel Chivilli (1.7) and Fernando Cruz (1.7) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-2
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Nick Martinez: 2.77 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 2.77 ERA against a 4.58 expected ERA (1.81 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .247 vs .279 expected.
regression_tomorrowTB @ COL
Nick Martinez: 2.77 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Martinez's contact numbers are clean — hard-hit under 33%, barrels under 8% — so the gap between his 2.77 ERA and 4.58 expected mark reads more like good sequencing than good fortune. I'd trust what he's actually doing on the mound over the regression math walking into Colorado tomorrow.
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/4
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/4 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
regression_watchDET @ SEA
Troy Melton: 1.75 ERA vs 3.26 xERA
Melton's 1.75 ERA against a 3.26 expected mark looks like a gap that should close, but the peripherals actually back a lot of it up — sub-1 WHIP, over eight strikeouts per nine, hitters not squaring him up. The one soft spot is opponents hitting .174 against a .220 expected mark, smaller than most of these gaps but still there. About as earned a sub-2 ERA as you'll find on the board tonight.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
regression_watchPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .302 AVG vs .254 xBA
Mangum's hitting .302 against a .254 expected average, with his .325 wOBA sitting well above the .283 his contact quality supports over 323 plate appearances. The results have outpaced the underlying quality for a while now.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Doval's pitched two days running, even with light pitch counts, and Soto's carrying more mileage on that same short turnaround. Mlodzinski's bulk outing takes him out of it too, leaving Marinaccio, Ramírez, and Montgomery as the fresher arms if Pittsburgh needs the pen against Milwaukee tonight.
regression_watchPIT @ MIL
Spencer Horwitz: .276 AVG vs .231 xBA
Horwitz's .276 average is running ahead of a .231 expected mark, and his .365 wOBA tells the same story against a .332 expected number over 303 plate appearances.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
regression_watchTB @ COL
Cole Carrigg: .308 AVG vs .265 xBA
Carrigg's hitting .308 against a .265 expected average over 173 plate appearances, with a wOBA of .390 against a .340 expected mark. Good production so far, but the underlying contact isn't fully backing up the results.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchCHW @ BOS
Chase Meidroth: .273 AVG vs .232 xBA
Meidroth's hitting .273 against a .232 expected average across 452 plate appearances, with a wOBA of .329 against a .292 expected mark. That's a full season of data now, and it's still running ahead of what the contact quality says it should.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .226 AVG vs .268 xBA
Mookie's contact quality says .268, his batting average says .226 — same story in wOBA versus expected, off by nearly 30 points. Over 322 plate appearances that's too big a sample to wave off as noise, and it's the kind of gap that tends to close before a season's out.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formOAK @ CIN
Brady Singer: 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Fifteen strikeouts and five earned runs across his last three starts — Singer's found something, running almost two runs under his season ERA in that stretch. Pair that with him pitching at home tonight and this looks like a strong version of him against Oakland.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
running_gameNYM @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Luis Torrens (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland's plenty willing to run, but tonight they'd be testing a catcher who's caught 15 of 37 attempts. A 41% clip is well above what most backstops throw out — I like the arm in that matchup if the Guardians get aggressive early.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
regression_tomorrowMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 6.5 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 6.5 ERA against a 4.94 expected ERA (1.56 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .271 vs .256 expected.
regression_tomorrowMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 6.5 ERA vs 4.93 xERA
A 6.5 ERA looks bad on its face, but Kremer's expected number is nearly a run and a half lower, and the contact quality against him isn't alarming. Probably a better pitcher than his last several results against Kansas City tomorrow would suggest.
regression_watchCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .289 AVG vs .248 xBA
The same Rafaela running hot the last two weeks has also outhit his expected numbers all season — .289 against a .248 expected average, .349 wOBA against .288 expected, across 441 plate appearances. The recent heat is real, but even his baseline was already running better than the contact earns.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
regression_tomorrowWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.72 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
Painter's expected ERA is a run and a half better than his actual number, but 5.23 still isn't good on its own — this reads as a pitcher who's genuinely struggled, just not quite this badly. Some correction is likely against Washington tomorrow, though the baseline isn't great to start from.
regression_watchTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Zoom out to the season and the picture flips on Peralta — strikeouts near nine per nine, barrels under 6%, and an ERA running a full run worse than his expected number. The stuff says he's been unlucky overall, even sitting right on top of an ugly three-start stretch.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Luis Arraez: .324 AVG vs .285 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .324 against a .285 expected average (xBA) over 464 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .345 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
regression_tomorrowWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.72 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 6.72 ERA against a 5.24 expected ERA (1.48 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .304 vs .271 expected.
starter_formMIA @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 5.52 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eighteen hits allowed across his last three starts tells you where this is coming from — Holmes has been getting hit hard, running a run and a half over his season number. Shaky trend to carry into tonight's game between Miami and Atlanta.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Zack Littell: 4.94 ERA vs 6.12 xERA
Littell's actual ERA already isn't good, and the expected number says it should be over a run worse — a 44% hard-hit rate and barrels near 11% back that up. Combined with the Nationals' 1-7 mark in his starts, tonight in Philadelphia looks like a tough spot.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
running_gamePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh runs almost a bag a game, and tonight that's against a catcher who's caught 20 of 50 basestealers. Contreras has one of the better arms behind the plate in the league, so this is strength meeting strength, not a green light.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ BOS
Chicago White Sox pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Only six arms have covered this stretch for Chicago, and two of them — Schultz and Schweitzer — turned in bulk-length outings that take them out of the mix right away. Taylor, Davitt, and Domínguez are the only real fresh options if tonight's game in Boston turns into a bullpen game.
ownedSD @ ARI
Corbin Carroll vs Randy Vasquez: .417
Corbin Carroll is 5-for-12 against Randy Vasquez for his career, and he's carrying a .738 OPS over his last 15 games into the rematch. History and current form are pointing the same direction here.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
closer_watchNYM @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
closer_watchWSH @ PHI
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Caleb Kilian with 8).
closer_watchSTL @ NYY
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 24 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
closer_watchSTL @ NYY
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
fantasy_pickupsDET @ SEA
Troy Melton
Streamer vs SEA — 3.26 xERA · 8.1 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP.
cut_listOAK tonight
Lawrence Butler
Still hitting 1th for OAK — 0.633 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 1-hole.
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.639 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 4-hole.
cut_listSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Rengifo's hitting second tonight, but a .633 OPS and .237 average is backup-infielder offense wearing a table-setter's spot in the order. The lineup slot buys at-bats, not results — and on a season-long roster you're not paying for tonight, you're paying for the next four months. Production this far below replacement level doesn't earn a bench spot just because he started today. CUT
running_gameMIN @ KC
Minnesota Twins like to run — Carter Jensen (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 39% caught-stealing rate (17 of 44) and Minnesota Twins run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Minnesota Twins stole 2 bases
cut_listSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Still hitting 6th for SEA — 0.577 OPS, 0.162 AVG from the 6-hole.
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Trey Yesavage
Streamer vs HOU — 3.33 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
running_gameMIA @ ATL
Green light: Miami Marlins run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Drake Baldwin has caught just 6 of 41 runners this season, and Miami already runs more than most teams at 1.4 attempts a game. That's about as clean a green light as this slate offers — I'd expect the Marlins to push the issue all night.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
cut_listBAL tonight
Cade Povich
Starts tonight for BAL — 5.34 xERA behind a 5.12 ERA.
cut_listNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Still hitting 3th for NYM — 0.660 OPS, 0.254 AVG from the 3-hole.
regression_tomorrowDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 4.56 ERA vs 3.53 xERA
Woo's average against basically matches his expected average, so this isn't about balls finding holes — it's timing, hits and runs landing at worse moments than the process would predict. If that form holds, the ERA drifts back toward the mid-threes against Detroit tomorrow.
regression_tomorrowDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 4.56 ERA vs 3.54 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 4.56 ERA against a 3.54 expected ERA (1.02 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .240 expected.
first_inningPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Both sides sit at three first-inning runs in their last ten, and both starters have been sharp early — Henderson at a 1.00 ERA, Jones even stingier at .154 against. Clean setup for a quiet first inning tonight.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
first_inningMIA @ ATL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ ATL
Both lineups have been quiet early this stretch — three first-inning runs in ten games apiece. Neither starter's first-inning number is overwhelming either, but the market's still leaning under here.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
regression_tomorrowSF @ TEX
Carson Whisenhunt: 6.63 ERA vs 7.64 xERA
Whisenhunt's 6.63 ERA is actually better than his 7.64 expected mark, and a 47.5% hard-hit rate with an 11.9% barrel rate both jump off the page. There's no hidden luck story here — against Texas tomorrow, the process is as rough as the results.
regression_tomorrowPIT @ MIL
Paul Skenes: 3.9 ERA vs 2.93 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.9 ERA against a 2.93 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .230 vs .209 expected.
ballpark_shiftSTL @ NYY
Ryan Weathers's ERA jumps to 4.50 at Yankee Stadium
Weathers is a full run worse at Yankee Stadium than anywhere else he's pitched, and that's across a real sample — a dozen games there. Worth knowing walking into tonight's game in that park against St. Louis.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
fantasy_pickupsOAK @ CIN
Tyler Soderstrom
Pickup vs Brady Singer (4.97 xERA) — .795 OPS, bats 3rd.
running_gameSTL @ NYY
New York Yankees like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
The Yankees run more than most at 1.3 attempts a night, but Pagés has caught 17 of 52 basestealers this year. That's a strong enough number that I'd expect at least one runner to pay for testing him tonight.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
regression_watchNYM @ CLE
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
Ten and twenty in one-run games is about as unlucky as a split gets — a .333 mark in the tight ones usually finds its way back toward .500. If the Mets are being priced purely off their overall record, that number's leaving something out.
running_gameMIN @ KC
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 12%
Ryan Jeffers has thrown out just 5 of 41 runners all season, and Kansas City has already stolen 87 bags on the year. Everything about this matchup says the Royals keep running, early and often.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowPIT @ MIL
Paul Skenes: 3.9 ERA vs 2.93 xERA
Skenes is already good at 3.9, and a 2.93 expected mark says the underlying performance has been even better than that. Nothing here says regression — if anything, more is still owed to him walking into Milwaukee tomorrow.
first_inningTOR @ HOU
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Toronto hasn't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games — a lineup that needs time to get going. Yesavage has been nails early himself at .183 against, and the first-inning under carries real weight tonight.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
regression_tomorrowCHW @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.93 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Gray's a little ahead of his expected number, but under a run's worth of gap with clean contact numbers underneath it is normal variance, not a warning sign. The process still looks strong walking into Chicago tomorrow.
fantasy_pickupsLAA @ BAL
Vaughn Grissom
Pickup vs Cade Povich (5.34 xERA) — .735 OPS, bats 4th.
regression_watchSF @ TEX
San Francisco Giants are 10-19 in one-run games (.345 win%)
San Francisco's 10-19 in one-run games, a .345 mark that's about as extreme as these splits get. That usually says more about luck than talent, and it tends to correct.
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
Nineteen and ten in one-run games, a .655 mark, sits on the high side of what tends to hold up — records like that in close games usually drift back toward .500. Worth keeping in mind if Philadelphia's overall record is doing a lot of the heavy lifting tonight.
regression_tomorrowCHW @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.93 ERA vs 3.83 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHW. A 2.93 ERA against a 3.83 expected ERA (0.9 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .242 vs .255 expected.
bullpen_fatigueNYM @ CLE
New York Mets pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nobody in the Mets' pen has pitched on back-to-back days in this stretch, so there's no fatigue story here at all. Curry soaked up the bulk innings, Raley and Weaver are about as rested as it gets, and whoever starts tonight against Cleveland has a full bullpen behind him.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/10
Nick Mears
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsSTL @ NYY
Hunter Dobbins
Streamer vs NYY — 3.71 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.34 WHIP.
first_inningSTL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
The Yankees have scored a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, but Weathers himself has been the opposite of stingy early — a 6.00 ERA and .315 against, with five homers allowed in the first inning alone. Two signals pulling in opposite directions in the same game.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningMIN @ KC
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Kansas City's first innings have gone quiet, just one run in their last ten games. Ryan's own first-inning average against, .207, backs that up even though his ERA in the split isn't as sharp — six homers allowed keeping that number up.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Blue Jays ML +128
MLB · 2-7
W
Orioles ML -150
MLB · 1-3
W
Rangers ML -187
MLB · 4-5
L
Colorado Rockies ML +159
MLB · 9-7
L
Nationals +1.5 +119
MLB · 0-5
W
Reds ML -129
MLB · 4-5
L
Diamondbacks ML -115
MLB · 9-4
L
Cardinals +1.5 -127
MLB · 0-2
L
Guardians ML -128
MLB · 6-2
L
White Sox ML +137
MLB · 2-14
W
Detroit Tigers ML +111
MLB · 8-0
L
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +132
MLB · 2-4
W
Braves ML -146
MLB · 2-4
L
Dodgers ML -186
MLB · 1-5
L
Minnesota Twins ML -140
MLB · 2-8

Props

L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Brice Turang · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Carson Palmquist · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 2
L
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Eduardo Rodriguez · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 17
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Gabriel Hughes · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 5
L
Grant Holmes · under
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 5
L
Gunnar Henderson · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Hunter Dobbins · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 4
L
Jackson Holliday · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Jesus Luzardo · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
JJ Bleday · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Joc Pederson · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Joey Cantillo · under
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 15
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Lawrence Butler · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Logan Henderson · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 8
L
MacKenzie Gore · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 18
L
Matt Olson · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mickey Moniak · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
Patrick Sandoval · under
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 15
L
Pete Alonso · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Pete Alonso · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Randy Vasquez · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Rhys Hoskins · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Royce Lewis · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 4
L
Ryan Weathers · under
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 18
L
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 1
W
Salvador Perez · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 2
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Spencer Jones · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Steven Kwan · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Tarik Skubal · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 6
L
Trea Turner · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Trey Yesavage · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
W
Troy Melton · under
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Tyler Stephenson · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Willi Castro · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 4
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 1