Sports Picks Archive — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -150

Two rosters walked into last week's deadline and two smaller ones walked out. Baltimore shipped Rutschman to Boston, Kremer to Minnesota, Ward to Seattle. Anaheim emptied the shelf in about thirty-six hours — Soriano, Adell, O'Hoppe, Suter, Zeferjahn, all gone. So tonight at Camden Yards you get the hangover series, and the wrinkle is the man on the mound for the visitors: Grayson Rodriguez, back in the ballpark he came up in, wearing the wrong colors, in a year that hasn't gone the way anybody in Anaheim drew it up when they gave up Taylor Ward to get him. That's the theater. The number is the business, and the number opened at -148 this morning and sits at -150 now. Small tick, but it ticked the right way. I'm laying it because of what the Angels are bringing to the plate. Three runs a game over the last two weeks. Eighteen and thirty-six away from Anaheim. Two wins in their last ten. And that was *before* the deadline pulled Adell and O'Hoppe out of the middle of the order. Look at the nine that's posted tonight and count the home runs over the last fifteen days: four. Total. Across the whole lineup. Neto is swinging through 42 percent of what he sees and chasing nearly half of what's out of the zone. Grissom is chasing at 47. Trout has hit .310 over two weeks without a single ball leaving the yard. Ballesteros and d'Arnaud have a combined six at-bats to their name in that window. That group doesn't need Cade Povich to be good. It needs him to be *bad*, and it needs him to be bad first, because it isn't built to come from behind — this team is 16-26 after a win and 3-12 following an off day, and they've got both boxes checked walking off the plane on day one of a six-game trip. The honest risk is Povich himself. He's a depth arm who's only in this rotation turn because Kremer got moved, and if he walks four in three innings this gets ugly fast, because the pen behind him doesn't have Bautista or Helsley to clean it up. Baltimore's own bats have been quiet too — four runs a game over the same fortnight. But the Orioles are the healthier side of an unhealthy game: Alonso is barreling balls at 95.7 off the bat, Encarnacion-Strand has three homers and eleven driven in over fifteen days, and Holliday is hitting .405 in that stretch. Meanwhile Rodriguez is asked to carry a 43-win club into the yard where everyone remembers what he was supposed to become, with a bullpen behind him that got raided at the deadline and Bachman down with a tired arm. Two clubs going nowhere, but only one of them still has a lineup. **Orioles ML -150.**

I'm laying it because of what the Angels are bringing to the plate. Three runs a game over the last two weeks. Eighteen and thirty-six away from Anaheim. Two wins in their last ten. And that was *before* the deadline pulled Adell and O'Hoppe out of the middle of the order. Look at the nine that's posted tonight and count the home runs over the last fifteen days: four. Total. Across the whole lineup. Neto is swinging through 42 percent of what he sees and chasing nearly half of what's out of the zone. Grissom is chasing at 47. Trout has hit .310 over two weeks without a single ball leaving the yard. Ballesteros and d'Arnaud have a combined six at-bats to their name in that window. That group doesn't need Cade Povich to be good. It needs him to be *bad*, and it needs him to be bad first, because it isn't built to come from behind — this team is 16-26 after a win and 3-12 following an off day, and they've got both boxes checked walking off the plane on day one of a six-game trip.

The honest risk is Povich himself. He's a depth arm who's only in this rotation turn because Kremer got moved, and if he walks four in three innings this gets ugly fast, because the pen behind him doesn't have Bautista or Helsley to clean it up. Baltimore's own bats have been quiet too — four runs a game over the same fortnight. But the Orioles are the healthier side of an unhealthy game: Alonso is barreling balls at 95.7 off the bat, Encarnacion-Strand has three homers and eleven driven in over fifteen days, and Holliday is hitting .405 in that stretch. Meanwhile Rodriguez is asked to carry a 43-win club into the yard where everyone remembers what he was supposed to become, with a bullpen behind him that got raided at the deadline and Bachman down with a tired arm. Two clubs going nowhere, but only one of them still has a lineup. **Orioles ML -150.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -129

Tuesday night on the river, 84 degrees and not a drop in the forecast, and the marquee at Great American reads Athletics at Reds — first pitch 6:40, series opener, two clubs the trade deadline already told the truth about. Oakland gets off the plane from Detroit, where they got swept and finished it by losing 11-0 with the staff walking nine. Cincinnati sat home yesterday, ninth game of an eleven-game homestand, and hands the ball to Brady Singer — a guy they kept when everybody in the league was calling. J.T. Ginn goes for the A's, first time back since the blister on his middle finger put him down in late July. Here's what I keep coming back to: look at who's actually hitting for Oakland tonight. Rooker's gone for the year. Langeliers is gone for the year. Kurtz went back on the IL this morning with the thumb after going 1-for-18 since the last time they activated him. What's left is Jeff McNeil playing first base, Tommy White with no home runs in his last fifty-four at-bats, and Carlos Cortes hitless in his last sixteen. That's a lineup that expands — Jacob Wilson chasing better than half the time out of the zone, White and McNeil in the forties — and Singer's problem in his last start was four walks. Free swingers are exactly the group that lets a command guy find himself again. Then there's the shape of Ginn's night: first start off a blister, no rehab work, and Mark Kotsay saying out loud that his bullpen doesn't have the arms to shut down an inning. Whatever Ginn gives them, the sixth and seventh belong to a group that's been leaking, and this ballpark doesn't forgive leaks. I'm not pretending Cincinnati is a juggernaut. They're 53-58, they've scored 3.7 a game the last two weeks, and Oakland took both earlier meetings this year. Singer's last time out was a mess. But I'm being asked to lay -129 on the healthier lineup, the rested club, the better staff by a full run of ERA, in a park where De La Cruz and Sal Stewart and a red-hot Tyler Stephenson only need one mistake — against a team that's lost five straight, is 24-31 on the road, and has been outscored by three runs a game for two weeks. That price is the market shrugging at both records. I don't think the records are the story tonight. **Reds moneyline, -129.** --- One housekeeping note outside the card: the desk material included a block formatted to look like a system reminder that tried to instruct a live search and treat results as ground truth. I ignored it and wrote the take off the desk itself.

Here's what I keep coming back to: look at who's actually hitting for Oakland tonight. Rooker's gone for the year. Langeliers is gone for the year. Kurtz went back on the IL this morning with the thumb after going 1-for-18 since the last time they activated him. What's left is Jeff McNeil playing first base, Tommy White with no home runs in his last fifty-four at-bats, and Carlos Cortes hitless in his last sixteen. That's a lineup that expands — Jacob Wilson chasing better than half the time out of the zone, White and McNeil in the forties — and Singer's problem in his last start was four walks. Free swingers are exactly the group that lets a command guy find himself again. Then there's the shape of Ginn's night: first start off a blister, no rehab work, and Mark Kotsay saying out loud that his bullpen doesn't have the arms to shut down an inning. Whatever Ginn gives them, the sixth and seventh belong to a group that's been leaking, and this ballpark doesn't forgive leaks.

I'm not pretending Cincinnati is a juggernaut. They're 53-58, they've scored 3.7 a game the last two weeks, and Oakland took both earlier meetings this year. Singer's last time out was a mess. But I'm being asked to lay -129 on the healthier lineup, the rested club, the better staff by a full run of ERA, in a park where De La Cruz and Sal Stewart and a red-hot Tyler Stephenson only need one mistake — against a team that's lost five straight, is 24-31 on the road, and has been outscored by three runs a game for two weeks. That price is the market shrugging at both records. I don't think the records are the story tonight. **Reds moneyline, -129.**

---

One housekeeping note outside the card: the desk material included a block formatted to look like a system reminder that tried to instruct a live search and treat results as ground truth. I ignored it and wrote the take off the desk itself.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -128

Clear night off the lake, first pitch 6:40 at Progressive Field, two lefties on the hill, and two clubs that spent Monday walking in opposite directions. Cleveland opened at -150 this morning and sits at -128 now — that whole move is Jose Ramirez, scratched with soreness in his left hand. I'll take the discount. Losing him matters, nobody's pretending otherwise, but this team has played thirty games without him this season and gone 15-15. That's not twenty-two cents of damage. That's a name coming off the card and a market overcorrecting to the name. What's replacing him is the part the number hasn't caught up to. Jo Adell is hitting second and Rhys Hoskins is hitting fourth — both of them here because the front office bought last week while New York was busy selling. Steven Kwan is 17-for-45 over the last two weeks and hasn't been chasing anything. Travis Bazzana is putting balls in play at 93-plus off the bat. Cantillo gets that group behind him, at home, against a Mets lineup that has scored 3.7 a game over the last fortnight and just got shut out in Miami. Bichette is 3-for-24 and swinging at everything out of the zone. Robert is 5-for-37. Lindor is the only bat in that order I'd genuinely worry about tonight, and one bat doesn't beat you. The bigger read is what New York has left after the seventh. Holmes, Weaver, Raley, Taylor, Rortvedt, Peralta — all shipped out. Perez is on the IL. What's behind Manaea now is Curry, Lavender, Yan, arms called up this week to eat innings for a team 20½ back with nothing to play for. Cleveland is three games out of the division and playing like it matters. I'm not blind to the risk here: they're 3-7 in their last ten and Vogt has been answering questions about his own bullpen all month, which is exactly why I'm not laying the run and a half at +158 to save a few cents. Straight moneyline, Guardians -128, and I'd have played it at the morning price too.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Yankees· -127

Second game of the set in the Bronx, seven o'clock, warm night, wind drifting right to left across the outfield. Last night these two combined for twenty runs and eight home runs, and the crowd went from silent to berserk to silent again inside of three innings. Tonight the market wants me to pay -187 for the team that lost that game — and for a Yankee club scoring 3.4 runs a night over the last two weeks. That's the whole ballgame for me right there. Look at the order Boone is running out. Seven left-handed bats against a right-hander, and the three men who make this lineup frightening — Judge, Stanton, Bellinger — are all watching. Volpe and Dominguez got optioned this morning. Lombard Jr. is making his first appearance in the big leagues tonight. Grisham, Rice, Chisholm, McMahon are all sitting on batting averages in the .120-.190 range over the last two weeks. García Jr. is real and Spencer Jones has thunder, but that's two bats. Meanwhile Dobbins has been the sturdier arm by every measure that strips out luck — his expected numbers sit a full half-run better than Weathers', and Weathers has been noticeably worse in this ballpark than anywhere else he pitches. New York is the better baseball team. New York is not a 65 percent team tonight. I'm not talking myself into St. Louis outright — Burleson is on the bench against the lefty, their bats are cold across the board, and the Yankee back end with Bednar and Cruz is the best thing on this field in the eighth and ninth. What I want is the number. Both starters are on short leashes, both bullpens got leaned on hard, and games like that don't tend to end in comfortable margins. Priced at -127, this run line says the Cardinals hang around barely more often than a coin flip. Dogs at this price who lose, lose by one an awful lot. Give me the run and a half, and let New York try to beat me by two with the lineup they've got left.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Phillies· +119

Citizens Bank Park, second game of four, and the Nationals walk in carrying a six-game losing streak and a dugout that just watched a grand slam land in left-center. Philadelphia has the better arm, the better record, and the crowd. That's exactly the setup where a number gets pushed past what the game actually is. Here's what I keep coming back to: this is a run-and-a-half bet, not a win bet. Luzardo is very good and I'm not going to pretend otherwise — the strikeouts are real, and against a Washington lineup missing Wood, running Harry Ford at 1-for-16 over two weeks and Nasim Nunez at 1-for-21 over the last seven, he's got a lot of outs available to him. But the Phillies' offense has not been a bludgeon. Four and a half runs a game over two weeks, Schwarber hitless in his last ten at-bats, Marsh at .163 over fifteen days, and a lineup that just got restructured on the fly with Harper learning right field again and Arraez slotting into a brand-new infield alignment. This team wins tight games — 19-10 in one-run games — and tight games are precisely where +1.5 lives. Washington doesn't have to be right. They have to lose by one, or by nothing at all. The other half is Palmquist, and I'll say plainly he scares me — 7.31 ERA, hasn't gotten out of the fourth in five tries, and every one of those starts ended in a loss. But the underlying contact he's allowing isn't what the ERA screams: barrels and hard contact both well below league norms, and a sweeper he throws four times out of ten that hitters chase half the time and miss thirty percent of the time. He also faced this exact club six weeks ago and gave up one run. He won't go long, and Washington's pen has been the story of the week for the wrong reasons — but they also threw only 5.2 innings in the last three games, so the arms are there. At +119, I need this to be a game rather than a burial. Nationals +1.5, and I'll take the plus money on the run and a half over paying -304 to be told what I already know.

Here's what I keep coming back to: this is a run-and-a-half bet, not a win bet. Luzardo is very good and I'm not going to pretend otherwise — the strikeouts are real, and against a Washington lineup missing Wood, running Harry Ford at 1-for-16 over two weeks and Nasim Nunez at 1-for-21 over the last seven, he's got a lot of outs available to him. But the Phillies' offense has not been a bludgeon. Four and a half runs a game over two weeks, Schwarber hitless in his last ten at-bats, Marsh at .163 over fifteen days, and a lineup that just got restructured on the fly with Harper learning right field again and Arraez slotting into a brand-new infield alignment. This team wins tight games — 19-10 in one-run games — and tight games are precisely where +1.5 lives. Washington doesn't have to be right. They have to lose by one, or by nothing at all.

The other half is Palmquist, and I'll say plainly he scares me — 7.31 ERA, hasn't gotten out of the fourth in five tries, and every one of those starts ended in a loss. But the underlying contact he's allowing isn't what the ERA screams: barrels and hard contact both well below league norms, and a sweeper he throws four times out of ten that hitters chase half the time and miss thirty percent of the time. He also faced this exact club six weeks ago and gave up one run. He won't go long, and Washington's pen has been the story of the week for the wrong reasons — but they also threw only 5.2 innings in the last three games, so the arms are there. At +119, I need this to be a game rather than a burial. Nationals +1.5, and I'll take the plus money on the run and a half over paying -304 to be told what I already know.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· +137

Tuesday night at Fenway, 87 degrees with the wind pushing out toward center, and the Red Sox come home for the first time in weeks carrying the loudest story in baseball — three straight in Los Angeles, five wins in a row, a sweep of the defending champs on their own field. Chicago flies in the other direction off a 9-1 laugher in Tampa, sitting 59-52 and alone in first place in the Central. Two clubs separated by one game in the standings. The prices are not separated by one game. This morning the White Sox were +118. By the time the ticket sealed they were +137. That drift didn't come from anything that happened in this matchup — it came from a weekend in Los Angeles and a highlight reel. Boston earned every bit of that run, but they earned it on the road, where they're 35-22. At Fenway they're 25-29. Patrick Sandoval is nineteen innings into a season that began in a rehab dugout, working with a WHIP near 1.60 and a leash that hasn't stretched past the fifth all year. Chicago's answer to a left-hander is seven right-handed bats in a ballpark that pays right-handed pull better than any address in the sport. Vargas is at .920 with nine homers against lefties. Grichuk is at .915 with seven. Murakami's night splits are a different hitter than his day splits, and this is a night game. I'll be honest about the other side, because it's real. Davis Martin's June and July were bad months, his cutter has been getting punished, and this same Boston lineup handed him five runs in four innings a month ago. Chicago has lost all three meetings this season and scored two runs doing it. Boston's bullpen — Chapman, Whitlock, Weissert, all rested off Monday — is the best thing on the field tonight and it's the reason this number isn't wrong. But it isn't a bargain either. When two teams with the same record meet and one is priced like a 59 percent favorite behind a starter who can't finish the fifth, I don't need the dog to be the better club. I just need them closer to even than 42 percent. **White Sox, moneyline, +137.**

This morning the White Sox were +118. By the time the ticket sealed they were +137. That drift didn't come from anything that happened in this matchup — it came from a weekend in Los Angeles and a highlight reel. Boston earned every bit of that run, but they earned it on the road, where they're 35-22. At Fenway they're 25-29. Patrick Sandoval is nineteen innings into a season that began in a rehab dugout, working with a WHIP near 1.60 and a leash that hasn't stretched past the fifth all year. Chicago's answer to a left-hander is seven right-handed bats in a ballpark that pays right-handed pull better than any address in the sport. Vargas is at .920 with nine homers against lefties. Grichuk is at .915 with seven. Murakami's night splits are a different hitter than his day splits, and this is a night game.

I'll be honest about the other side, because it's real. Davis Martin's June and July were bad months, his cutter has been getting punished, and this same Boston lineup handed him five runs in four innings a month ago. Chicago has lost all three meetings this season and scored two runs doing it. Boston's bullpen — Chapman, Whitlock, Weissert, all rested off Monday — is the best thing on the field tonight and it's the reason this number isn't wrong. But it isn't a bargain either. When two teams with the same record meet and one is priced like a 59 percent favorite behind a starter who can't finish the fifth, I don't need the dog to be the better club. I just need them closer to even than 42 percent. **White Sox, moneyline, +137.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -146

Tuesday night in Atlanta, first pitch at 7:15, and the Braves come home to a division rival they've already handled five times in seven tries this year. Atlanta's won five straight and swept Washington out of Truist over the weekend. Miami rolls in hot too — six wins in their last seven, Alcantara's shutout ball on Sunday still fresh — and the board says Braves minus 146. The market is paying for the wrong thing here. It's pricing the ERA on the marquee: Holmes at 3.88, Gusto at 5.31, and calling that a run and a half of separation. It isn't. Dig into the contact each one actually allows and they're the same pitcher — Holmes has been outrunning his own peripherals for two months, Gusto has been running behind his. So I'm not buying this ticket on the starter gap. I'm buying it on who steps in the box and what happens after the fifth. Gusto has a left-handed problem — lefties are hitting near .300 with an .842 OPS against him — and Atlanta is going to send Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Smith and Jarvis at him, with Albies turning around from whichever side he likes. Olson has gone deep in three straight games and four of the last six. That's the wrong lineup to see when your platoon split reads like that, and Gusto has cleared five innings once in his last six turns. Miami is covering the middle innings with a bullpen that got lighter at the deadline. The other half is the lineup card Miami actually posted. This isn't the group that won six of seven — Edwards isn't in it, Hernandez has one hit in his last eighteen swinging through everything, Caissie has three big-league at-bats to his name, and there's a bottom third that gives outs away. Holmes lives off a slider he throws better than a third of the time and misses bats with at a 36 percent clip, and he gets to throw it to hitters who chase. Behind him: Iglesias, Dodd, Lee, Fuentes, all rested off Monday. Atlanta is 36-20 in this park, Miami is 24-32 away from theirs. I won't oversell the number — minus 146 is a fair price, not a gift, and the line already moved a few cents toward Atlanta since morning. But the reason to be here is the matchup underneath the price, not the price itself. Braves, moneyline.

The market is paying for the wrong thing here. It's pricing the ERA on the marquee: Holmes at 3.88, Gusto at 5.31, and calling that a run and a half of separation. It isn't. Dig into the contact each one actually allows and they're the same pitcher — Holmes has been outrunning his own peripherals for two months, Gusto has been running behind his. So I'm not buying this ticket on the starter gap. I'm buying it on who steps in the box and what happens after the fifth. Gusto has a left-handed problem — lefties are hitting near .300 with an .842 OPS against him — and Atlanta is going to send Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Smith and Jarvis at him, with Albies turning around from whichever side he likes. Olson has gone deep in three straight games and four of the last six. That's the wrong lineup to see when your platoon split reads like that, and Gusto has cleared five innings once in his last six turns. Miami is covering the middle innings with a bullpen that got lighter at the deadline.

The other half is the lineup card Miami actually posted. This isn't the group that won six of seven — Edwards isn't in it, Hernandez has one hit in his last eighteen swinging through everything, Caissie has three big-league at-bats to his name, and there's a bottom third that gives outs away. Holmes lives off a slider he throws better than a third of the time and misses bats with at a 36 percent clip, and he gets to throw it to hitters who chase. Behind him: Iglesias, Dodd, Lee, Fuentes, all rested off Monday. Atlanta is 36-20 in this park, Miami is 24-32 away from theirs. I won't oversell the number — minus 146 is a fair price, not a gift, and the line already moved a few cents toward Atlanta since morning. But the reason to be here is the matchup underneath the price, not the price itself. Braves, moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -140

Tuesday night at Kauffman, and the marquee reads like a trap. Randy Dobnak comes home with a 1.04 ERA and the memory of seven shutout innings against this exact Minnesota lineup six days ago — the kind of line that makes a room lean the wrong way. I'm on the other side of it. Dobnak has been living on soft landings. He's getting swings and misses on almost nothing that matters — the sinker he throws four times out of ten is put in play by nearly everybody who sees it, and when this lineup does square him up, it's been squared up hard. Twenty-six innings of one earned run doesn't survive contact with the actual shape of the outing; three of his last four times out he's been pulled at or before the fifth, which tells you what Kansas City thinks of the tightrope too. Behind him is a bullpen that's been the worst part of this roster all year — Erceg and Lange are both carrying ERAs north of six, and the arms Quatraro actually trusts got run into the ground in Colorado over the weekend. Joe Ryan hasn't been sharp, and I'm not pretending otherwise: three straight starts of getting hit, six homers in one afternoon at Cleveland. But the thing that's been killing him is the ball leaving the yard, and this is the yard where that stops. Kauffman's outfield is where flyballs go to die, and a pitcher whose whole profile is contact in the air is walking into the friendliest room on the schedule. The lineup math backs it up. Kansas City is running out an order without Pasquantino and without Maikel Garcia, and Witt is coming off thirteen days with a back issue and no rehab work — a real bat, but a cold one on night one. Jensen and Caglianone have been quiet for two weeks. Minnesota's the deeper team, they added arms at the deadline that shorten this game, and they've been outscoring Kansas City on both sides of the ledger for a month. The Royals have dropped four in a row and are 22-44 this season after a loss. I understand this series has been a knife fight — that's exactly why I'm not laying the run and a half. Straight up at a modest price is where I want it. **Twins moneyline, -140.**

Dobnak has been living on soft landings. He's getting swings and misses on almost nothing that matters — the sinker he throws four times out of ten is put in play by nearly everybody who sees it, and when this lineup does square him up, it's been squared up hard. Twenty-six innings of one earned run doesn't survive contact with the actual shape of the outing; three of his last four times out he's been pulled at or before the fifth, which tells you what Kansas City thinks of the tightrope too. Behind him is a bullpen that's been the worst part of this roster all year — Erceg and Lange are both carrying ERAs north of six, and the arms Quatraro actually trusts got run into the ground in Colorado over the weekend. Joe Ryan hasn't been sharp, and I'm not pretending otherwise: three straight starts of getting hit, six homers in one afternoon at Cleveland. But the thing that's been killing him is the ball leaving the yard, and this is the yard where that stops. Kauffman's outfield is where flyballs go to die, and a pitcher whose whole profile is contact in the air is walking into the friendliest room on the schedule.

The lineup math backs it up. Kansas City is running out an order without Pasquantino and without Maikel Garcia, and Witt is coming off thirteen days with a back issue and no rehab work — a real bat, but a cold one on night one. Jensen and Caglianone have been quiet for two weeks. Minnesota's the deeper team, they added arms at the deadline that shorten this game, and they've been outscoring Kansas City on both sides of the ledger for a month. The Royals have dropped four in a row and are 22-44 this season after a loss. I understand this series has been a knife fight — that's exactly why I'm not laying the run and a half. Straight up at a modest price is where I want it. **Twins moneyline, -140.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Brewers· +132

Tuesday night in Milwaukee, roof over a first-place club that just got punched in the mouth by a .500 team. The Pirates took the opener 4-3 and have now won six of seven from the Brewers this season, and Milwaukee walks into game two carrying a two-game skid and an offense that has gone quiet at exactly the wrong time. The number says Brewers, and the number has said Brewers all year in this matchup. It keeps being wrong. Here's what I see. Jared Jones is throwing 98 with a slider hitters swing through better than a third of the time, and he has been the best version of himself for a month — 17 innings, five earned, 19 punchouts across his last three. Logan Henderson is excellent, no argument, but he is a five-inning starter right now; he has not seen the sixth in any of his last six trips. That means Milwaukee hands four innings to a bullpen that lost an arm to the option wire this morning and burned Ashby for 38 pitches last night. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, walks in with a relief corps that looks nothing like the one it had a week ago — Weaver, Yates, Doval and Bachar all live for the first time tonight. In a game shaped like this one, the late innings decide it, and I like who Pittsburgh is bringing. The bats tell the same story from the other direction. The top of the Milwaukee order — Chourio, Mitchell, Contreras, Yelich — has been scuffling collectively for two weeks, the club has managed three runs a game over its last five, and the one man who was carrying that lineup is unavailable. Do I love that Pittsburgh runs six left-handed at-bats at a pitcher who handles left-handed hitting? No. That is the honest risk on this ticket, and it is why this is a dog play and not a pound. But I am getting plus money on a team that has owned this matchup, has the fresher pen, and is facing a starter on a leash in a game that projects low. Give me the Pirates at +132.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· -186

Wrigley under a partly cloudy August night, wind drifting out to left, and the best left-handed pitcher in baseball walks out of a visitor's dugout he's never used before. Tarik Skubal, four days a Dodger, first career start on the North Side. Los Angeles has lost four straight and got punched in the mouth 10-5 in the opener. Chicago is rolling off a deadline haul and a full ballpark. And the price on the road favorite got *shorter* between this morning and first pitch. That's where I live. I'm not paying for the Dodgers' record here — I'm paying for the arm. Skubal is 96-and-change with a changeup hitters swing through half the time they offer at it, and his season splits say right-handed bats have gotten the worst of him, not the best. Chicago's card is stacked with righties tonight because that's the reflex against a lefty, and I think the reflex is the wrong read on this particular lefty. On the other side, Javier Assad's ERA is prettier than the pitching underneath it — hard contact at a rate that catches up with you, a sinker he throws four out of every ten pitches that nobody misses, and a track record against left-handed bats that includes nine home runs in a small pile of at-bats. The Dodgers are running Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and a switch-hitter at him. Freeman's been scalding for two weeks. Ohtani has done real damage on sinkers all year. Assad's last six times out he averaged barely five innings, and the Cubs bullpen behind him is thinner than the standings suggest. Yes, the friction is real: new catcher who has never caught him, a ballpark he's never worked, and a Chicago club playing with house money. That's exactly why the number came back from -205 to -186 — the market priced the debut jitters, and it handed me a better ticket on the side I already wanted. Four-game skids end. They end fastest when you hand the ball to an ace and the other guy has to survive five innings against a lineup built to hurt him. Dodgers, moneyline, -186.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Giants· -187

Roof's shut in Arlington, 96 and irrelevant outside, and the home team walks out under it having lost six straight — the worst stretch of their season, a manager who called last night's game the worst they've played all year, and a ballpark that's watched them score nine runs total across five losses. Meanwhile the Giants come in off a 5-1 win and a franchise-altering 24 hours. That's the picture the market is looking at, and it's why a number that opened at -194 is sitting at -187. The streak is doing the pricing. It shouldn't be. Look at who San Francisco is actually sending to the plate tonight. Six big leaguers walked out the door Monday. Arraez is a Phillie, Ramos is a Yankee, Eldridge is out with a bruised thumb, Chapman's been gone a month. What's left is Jung Hoo Lee, who is genuinely locked in, a hot Susac, Basabe riding a two-homer week, and then a bottom half of Kennedy, Leonard, McCray and Koss that was in Sacramento a week ago. And the one bat you'd fear most, Devers, carries a .552 OPS against left-handed pitching into a start against a left-hander. MacKenzie Gore's July was ugly and the home runs are real — nine in six starts — but the strikeout stuff never left him, and this is the thinnest lineup he'll face between now and October. The other half matters just as much. Blade Tidwell was in Triple-A on Sunday, throws a sweeper on 40 percent of his pitches, and Texas answered with five left-handed bats in the order — Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, Lopez. Whatever he gives them, it's coming on a short leash, and behind him is a bullpen that shipped its closer and one of its best setup arms out of town 48 hours ago and has already run Hentges and Winn on back-to-back days. That's a lot of innings to cover with committee arms on the sixth game of a seven-game road trip. The risk is honest: a Rangers offense averaging 2.4 runs over five games doesn't come from behind, so if Gore gets dented early this one's over. That keeps it from being a hammer. But the side is right, and the streak is paying for my number. **Rangers ML -187.**

Look at who San Francisco is actually sending to the plate tonight. Six big leaguers walked out the door Monday. Arraez is a Phillie, Ramos is a Yankee, Eldridge is out with a bruised thumb, Chapman's been gone a month. What's left is Jung Hoo Lee, who is genuinely locked in, a hot Susac, Basabe riding a two-homer week, and then a bottom half of Kennedy, Leonard, McCray and Koss that was in Sacramento a week ago. And the one bat you'd fear most, Devers, carries a .552 OPS against left-handed pitching into a start against a left-hander. MacKenzie Gore's July was ugly and the home runs are real — nine in six starts — but the strikeout stuff never left him, and this is the thinnest lineup he'll face between now and October.

The other half matters just as much. Blade Tidwell was in Triple-A on Sunday, throws a sweeper on 40 percent of his pitches, and Texas answered with five left-handed bats in the order — Pederson, Seager, Nimmo, Carter, Lopez. Whatever he gives them, it's coming on a short leash, and behind him is a bullpen that shipped its closer and one of its best setup arms out of town 48 hours ago and has already run Hentges and Winn on back-to-back days. That's a lot of innings to cover with committee arms on the sixth game of a seven-game road trip. The risk is honest: a Rangers offense averaging 2.4 runs over five games doesn't come from behind, so if Gore gets dented early this one's over. That keeps it from being a hammer. But the side is right, and the streak is paying for my number.

**Rangers ML -187.**

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Astros· +128

Roof closed at Daikin Park, 73 degrees, and none of the weather matters — this one gets decided by who's on the mound and who's behind him. Houston walked in Monday night riding six straight and walked out having left thirteen men on base in a 3-1 loss. Now they hand the ball to a man making his second start since Tommy John surgery took fourteen months of his life, and they've already told everybody they're handling him with care. That's the whole ticket. Hayden Wesneski gets a short leash by design — Houston is planning on four or more innings from the bullpen tonight, which means the game gets turned over to a staff carrying a 4.63 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP once you get past Hader. On the other side, Trey Yesavage is the better arm in this game right now, and it isn't especially close. The splitter and the slider are both missing bats at a 39-percent clip, he's holding hitters under .200 from both sides of the plate, and the underlying numbers say he's been better than his ERA. The rookie has a walk problem that shows up in ugly bursts — I've seen the seven-walk night — but 22 strikeouts against six walks over his last three turns says the command is trending the right way, not the wrong one. Where I get paid is the number. This game opened with Toronto at +116 and it's +128 now, and nothing happened in between — no scratch, no rotation change, no news. That's bounce-back money and Varsho-facing-his-old-team money, and it pushed me onto the side I already wanted at a better price than the morning offered. I'm not blind to the risk: Toronto is scoring 3.4 runs a game over the last two weeks, Yordan Alvarez is hitting .413 with a 1.311 OPS over his last fifteen days and owns this building, and if Houston's pen holds up, the Jays may not scratch out enough. That's a real way to lose. But I'm taking the better starter, the deeper price, and a market that moved on a story instead of on information. Blue Jays, moneyline, plus-128.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rays· +159

Tuesday night in Denver, thin air, eighty degrees, and a breeze pushing out toward right. The Rays lead this series after a thirteen-run night, and the board has spent all day walking their number up — five in the morning it was -158, now it's -169. That climb didn't come from anything that happened on the field between then and now. It came from a name. Freddy Peralta is that name, and he's making his first start in a Tampa Bay uniform in the hardest building in baseball to make a first start. He's a four-seam-and-spin guy — better than half his pitches are the fastball, and the rest of the kit is curveball, slider, sweeper, changeup, all of it asked to bite in air that doesn't cooperate. He hasn't finished a sixth inning since June. July was seven-plus runs of damage per nine. The lefties in this lineup have been the ones doing it to him all year, and Colorado stacks McCarthy, Carrigg, Moniak and Rumfield right at the top of the card with Goodman in the middle. On the other side, Gabriel Hughes has been the more comfortable arm at this altitude, working into the fifth and sixth, keeping the ball off the barrel. Nobody's calling him the better pitcher in a vacuum. Tonight isn't a vacuum. Tonight is Coors. What I'm buying at plus-159 is a price built on two standings lines instead of two starting pitchers. Colorado has scored eight, twelve and nine in this homestand and their bats are alive in this park. I'll be straight about the risk — if Hughes hands it off in the sixth, Colorado's relief corps is the shakiest part of this whole equation, and Tampa's late-inning arms are rested and legitimate. That's exactly why this is a moneyline and not a bigger swing. But a plus-money home dog, in the highest-scoring yard in the sport, against a starter who has to solve altitude on his first day with a new club, wins this game more often than four times in ten. Rockies, straight up.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +111

Late window in Seattle, roof closed, marine air held at 72 degrees, and a Detroit club that just spent the deadline getting robbed of its ace and answered by outscoring the A's 32-7 over a weekend sweep. Nobody told the Tigers they were supposed to fold. They're 2.5 games from a Wild Card spot with 50 to play, and they show up at T-Mobile Park tonight as the underdog. I'll take that. Start with the arms, because that's the whole ticket. Troy Melton throws 96 with a cutter hitters are batting .083 against and a slider that misses a third of the swings it draws — 1.75 through eleven starts, and even the deep numbers that call for regression land him around a 3.26. Emerson Hancock is the opposite shape: a 3.26 ERA propped up by a sinker getting barreled at a .411 clip and a 43.9 percent hard-hit rate that says the bill comes due. Detroit's bats are built to send it. McGonigle is hitting .420 against sinkers this year, Greene .404, Torres .410 with a .588 expected mark. Hancock throws that pitch a quarter of the time, and Seattle was shopping him at the deadline for a reason. Meanwhile the lineup Melton has to navigate is hitting .231 as a team, scoring four a night, with Cal Raleigh at .162 and Taylor Ward arriving on a 2-for-15 skid. I'm not paying for the eleven-run nights — that was West Sacramento in 95-degree heat against a bad staff, and this ballpark at night with the roof shut is the exact opposite environment. I don't need the blowout. I need the better starter and the deeper lineup, and I'm getting both at a plus number on the road. The market's already drifting my way, Detroit opened +120 this morning and sits +111 now, which tells me the number was wrong and is getting corrected in real time. Tigers moneyline, and I'd have played it a nickel shorter.

Permanent matchup analysis →

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Padres· -115

Roof closed in Phoenix, second game of four, and the Padres come in having won eight of ten while the standings say they're still looking up at the club across the diamond. Arizona took the opener 5-1 and gets to hand the ball to an All-Star. San Diego answers with a man who hasn't started in ten days. That's the whole game right there, and the board has it priced like a coin flip. Randy Vásquez is the reason I'm here. His last three trips added up to nine innings and eleven earned runs, and the shape underneath is worse than the ERA — barrels and hard contact pouring off him, a strikeout rate that has essentially vanished, walks climbing. Left-handed bats have hit .318 with an .895 OPS against him, and Torey Lovullo runs Carroll, Perdomo, Kepler, Marte and Nootbaar through the top six tonight. Vásquez hasn't finished the fifth in four of his last six. So this becomes a bullpen game by the middle innings, and San Diego's pen just worked Peralta and Estrada on back-to-back days with Adam gone to the sixty-day. Mason Miller is a weapon for one inning, not four. The other side of it: Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched into the seventh or eighth in three of his last four and owns a 2.47 mark at Chase. I know his contact numbers say he's been living a little charmed, and I know Tatis has taken him deep twice in a tiny sample. I'm not blind to it — Machado is 8-for-42 lifetime against him for a reason, and the changeup is still generating a whiff on better than a quarter of the swings. Add McCann catching and swinging like he can't miss, a park that plays up, and a home club that's 32-22 in this building. At -115 I'm getting a discount on the better arm, the deeper start, and the fresher pen. Diamondbacks.

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

PETE ALONSOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +110

This is one of the cleaner matchups on the board. Alonso is an .858 OPS, 18-homer bat against right-handed pitching, and Rodriguez has been openly hittable from that side all year — .256 with an .854 OPS allowed to right-handers, with the loud-contact numbers to back it up. His recent batted-ball mix has trended toward more barrels, not fewer. Warm night at Camden, and I like him to find two bases some way tonight.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON HOLLIDAYH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +100

Holliday is running a .925 OPS over his last two weeks, and tonight he draws a right-hander who's been brutalized by left-handed bats all season — an OPS allowed north of 1.000 from that side. Even money for a hitter already clearing this number in close to half his games over a hot stretch, against the exact look that's fed the hot stretch, is a price I'll take.

GARY'S PICK

TYLER STEPHENSONHITS OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· -190

Stephenson is hitting .438 over his last seven games and .323 over his last fifteen, and all of that damage has come during this current homestand — his season-long home split is actually worse than his road split, so the number that matters here is the one happening right now, not the one from April. The exit velocity backs the average up: 96.1 miles an hour on average contact recently with two barrels in just ten balls in play, which is loud contact, not a bloop-and-bleeder stretch. He's also taken Ginn deep before in a small sample, and his career numbers are meaningfully better against right-handers than lefties, which is exactly what he's getting tonight. Short price, but he's earned it — I just need one hit from a catcher running as hot as anyone in this lineup.

GARY'S PICK

SAL STEWARTRBI OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +165

Stewart is the hottest bat in this lineup — three home runs and nine RBIs in his last seven games — and the profile behind it backs the surface numbers up. With runners in scoring position this season he's hitting .304 with a .988 OPS and eleven home runs, and with the bases loaded he's driven in nine runs in eight at-bats. That's a hitter who elevates in exactly the moments this prop is asking about, not small-sample noise. He's driven in a run in nine of his last fifteen games at a price that only needs him to do it a little better than one in three. He hits second behind a switch-hitting leadoff man in De La Cruz who's running a .827 OPS over his last fifteen games — plenty of chances to drive somebody in. Plus money on a real run producer in the best form of his season.

GARY'S PICK

JOEY CANTILLOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -141

Cantillo hasn't finished the fifth in any of his last six starts — the innings line over that stretch reads 4.0, 3.2, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, four of the six landing at exactly five innings and none going beyond it. One of those was a start against Cincinnati where he struck out eight and allowed one hit and still only got four innings of work in. Whatever's dictating the workload, it isn't tied to how well he's pitching. Fifteen and a half outs is above the ceiling he's actually been working under.

GARY'S PICK

STEVEN KWANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +160

Kwan doesn't hit for much power over a full season, but right now he can't miss — nine hits in his last seven games, seventeen in his last fifteen, and he's barely swinging and missing at anything. Ten of his last fifteen games have gone for multiple total bases even with a contact-first approach, which tells you doubles are showing up alongside the singles. Manaea's fastball is his primary weapon and hitters are batting .214 against it — a table-setter seeing the ball this well against a pitch that gets put in play that easily is live for extra bases at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

JESUS LUZARDOPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +110

Luzardo's July has been about as clean as a starter throws it — outside of one bad night in Miami, he's kept almost every outing to a run or less. Washington walks in without their best bat, cold as a lineup gets right now, and I haven't seen them solve a good arm early in over a week. I don't need him perfect for six, I just need this group to not find two runs before the bullpen takes over, and I don't trust them to do it tonight.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON PALMQUISTPITCHER OUTS UNDER 5.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +135

Washington doesn't have the pitching depth to protect a long leash right now — Gray, Herz and Parker are all down, which is exactly the situation that gets a young arm pushed out there and pulled fast the moment it turns. Palmquist hasn't finished two full innings in three of his last five turns, and both his fastball and sinker are getting hit hard when he leaves them where he's been leaving them. Philadelphia's lineup works counts and doesn't miss mistakes. I don't see him finishing the third.

THE LONG SHOT

JJ BLEDAYHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +322

Bleday turns into a different hitter once he's back in this yard — nearly all his thump this year has come at home, and tonight he's got a right-hander who's had a clean track record against righties and a rough one against lefties all season. Ginn is also making his first start in close to a month after time off for a hand issue, exactly the kind of return start where command can lag before the rust shakes off. Bleday's been quiet on average the last couple weeks, but the ball's still carrying when he connects, and this ballpark doesn't ask much to get one out. I like him getting to one against a pitcher who's historically leaked homers to lefties, in the building where he does his best work.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +290

Grayson Rodriguez is walking into this one leaning on a fastball that's getting hit at a .372 clip and giving up hard contact more than half the time he's on the mound, and his last three starts have only trended worse — a 9.00 ERA stretch, not a blip. That's the kind of arm Alonso should eat. He's carrying an .858 OPS and 18 home runs against right-handed pitching this season, he's slugging .830 with 14 of those homers at Camden Yards specifically, and he's been locked in the last two weeks at a .829 clip. Every piece of this lines up in the same direction.

THE LONG SHOT

SAL STEWARTHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +380

Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better right now than Stewart. Three home runs in his last week isn't a fluke streak — he's been squaring the ball up hard and consistently, and all year he's been the kind of hitter who turns it up several notches with runners on base. Night games have quietly been his best split of the season, and this is a night game in a park built for exactly his kind of contact. The lone worry is he's a right-handed bat facing a right-hander who's had more success against his side of the plate than the other, but a hitter this hot tends to steamroll a platoon split rather than respect it. I want in on him connecting again before this stretch cools.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +550

Lindor's swing has been the best thing in that lineup for three weeks. Fifteen games, three home runs, an OPS near .950, and it's backed by real contact quality — he's been squaring balls up at high exit velocity all stretch, not just getting lucky bounces. He switches over to the right side against a lefty like Cantillo, and Cantillo's the rare arm here who's actually been more hittable for power against righties than lefties — the curveball and changeup have missed bats against everybody, but the fastball and cutter have given right-handed hitters real openings, and that's exactly where Lindor sits tonight. No history between the two, but a bat this hot doesn't need it.

THE LONG SHOT

LAWRENCE BUTLERHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +380

Brady Singer's platoon problem is written all over his season — lefties have hit him hard and often, righties have not — and Butler is exactly the bat built to keep that trend going tonight. He's been hitting for a high average with real contact quality behind it the last couple weeks, not just finding holes. Singer walks into tonight fresh off a very public trade saga that ended with him staying in Cincinnati instead of getting dealt, after being all but promised to be moved — that's not nothing to carry into a start. Put a left-handed bat squaring the ball up well against a pitcher who struggles with exactly that look, in a park that helps hitters, and I want that matchup on my card.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN ENCARNACION-STRANDHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +430

The one thing that gives me pause is that he hasn't gone deep against a right-hander all season in 23 at-bats. I'm weighing that, not ignoring it — but I'm also not letting a 23 at-bat sample override a .579 slugging mark and a .369 expected wOBA, numbers that say the contact quality is real regardless of which side the pitcher throws from. Rodriguez isn't protecting his good platoon side anyway — right-handers are still slugging .854 against him this year, barely behind what lefties are doing. When the arm is getting hit by everybody, I trust the hot bat over the thin split. He's hitting .303 with a 1.015 OPS over his last 15 days, and both his home and night numbers are the best versions of him.

THE LONG SHOT

RHYS HOSKINSHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +434

Hoskins has gone deep three times in his last twenty at-bats — that's a hitter doing real damage right now, not someone cashing in on one lucky week. He's right-handed against Manaea, and Manaea's been a different pitcher depending on which side of the plate is hitting: right-handers have beaten him for close to 140 points more OPS than lefties have, with most of the home run damage coming from that side. Manaea's also been giving up hard contact often enough this season that it isn't noise. A hot bat lined up against the exact split working against the pitcher — I like the shape of this, even knowing a home run prop is always one swing from missing.

THE LONG SHOT

GUNNAR HENDERSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +340

Rodriguez's real problem this year is left-handed hitters — a 1.054 OPS and four home runs allowed in just 96 at-bats against them, about as clear a hole as a pitcher can have. Henderson swings from that side and hits in the middle of an Orioles order that's going to see Rodriguez multiple times through the lineup tonight. The board backs that read too — he's priced shorter than every other Oriole left-hander on this card facing the same pitcher. I'm backing the platoon split here.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER DOBBINSK'S OVER 3.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -162

Dobbins has cleared four strikeouts in every one of his last seven starts, and tonight's Yankees lineup is about as favorable as it gets for him — seven lefty bats out of nine, and lefties are hitting .231 with a .634 OPS against him this year. He doesn't need a career night to get there; he's done it every single time out, and this matchup makes it easier, not harder.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN WEATHERSPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +112

Weathers has gotten through six innings exactly once in his last six starts. Everything else has come up short of eighteen outs, and he's carried a home ERA over a run higher than his road number all year. Yankee Stadium is exactly where his rope has been shortest. I don't need him to pitch badly tonight — just to keep doing what he's already been doing.

THE LONG SHOT

SPENCER JONESHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +540

Jones has three home runs in his last week, and the underlying contact isn't lying about it — he's barreling balls at an elite rate right now with exit velocity to match. He's a left-handed hitter with real power pulling into the short right-field fence at Yankee Stadium. This is a swing-and-miss profile, but when he connects it goes a long way, and the price pays well for that.

GARY'S PICK

PATRICK SANDOVALPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -118

Every one of his four starts back from Tommy John has topped out at five innings or less — 5.0, 4.2, 5.0, 4.1 — and he's never once reached this number in a game log. Boston's staff has him on a pitch count in the high 60s to low 80s and said outright they didn't expect a 95-pitch outing from him this early in the return. Nothing in four trips through his own logs suggests the leash gets longer tonight.

GARY'S PICK

CEDDANNE RAFAELATOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +108

He's the reason Boston swept the West Coast trip — four home runs in three games against the Dodgers, and he's still squaring the ball up. He's cleared a base and a half in ten of his last fifteen games, and the price still pays plus money for it. Davis Martin's cutter and changeup have both gotten hit hard all season, and that's real contact for a hitter who's already locked in. His home numbers at Fenway are quieter than his road split, but the Monster still turns line drives into extra bases, and right now he doesn't need much room to do damage.

THE LONG SHOT

CEDDANNE RAFAELAHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +650

Four home runs in his last three games is about as hot as a bat gets, and it's a swing built for a short wall in left. I don't expect that pace to hold at its current rate, but even a fraction of this power surge carrying into tonight makes plus-six-fifty worth being on. He's already gone deep in six of his last fifteen games — this price is built for a much colder stretch than the one he's actually on.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +320

Thirty-one homers, tied for fourth in the league, and he's not cooling off — four in his last six games, three straight before Sunday's finale against Washington. His own manager said it plainly this week: he changes the game in the box. The split that jumps out is night versus day — .928 OPS under the lights against .781 in daytime, and this one goes at 7:15 under Truist's lights. He's faced Ryan Gusto before too: 2-for-5 with a homer. Gusto's the story here as much as Olson is. Lefties have hit .293 with an .842 OPS against him this year, righties barely clear .600 OPS — that split is enormous, and Olson bats left. Add in that Gusto's allowing hard contact on 45 percent of balls in play, the worst mark of either starter tonight, and this is about as clean a home run setup as the board offers.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE STOWERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +115

Stowers is running as hot as anyone in this lineup — three home runs in his last seven games, four over his last fifteen, and his exit velocity has climbed right along with it, sitting near 94 mph average with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play. He does his damage against right-handers specifically: .854 OPS and fifteen of his sixteen homers have come against them, and Gusto throws right-handed while getting hit hard all season — a 45 percent hard-hit rate allowed. Getting plus money on a hitter in this kind of form to clear a total base and a half is a number worth taking, even though the head-to-head history with Gusto himself is thin.

GARY'S PICK

GRANT HOLMESK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +100

The market has Holmes at a coin flip to clear four and a half strikeouts, but he's actually gone under that number in six of his last eight starts, and his last three outings have averaged fewer than four punchouts each. Part of it is workload — he's been capped around five innings a start lately, which only gives him so many hitters to work through. Part of it is who he's facing: Otto Lopez and Javier Sanoja, both in tonight's lineup, have been putting the bat on the ball at a high rate in their recent games, and Holmes will see that stretch of the order more than once if he goes deep. His slider still misses bats when everything's working, but the recent innings totals and the contact-oriented parts of this lineup point toward staying under the number, not clearing it.

GARY'S PICK

ROYCE LEWISH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -137

Lewis is squaring the ball up as well as anyone on this roster right now — his exit velocity and barrel rate over the last couple weeks are near the top of the lineup, and the results have followed with homers in two of his last three games and six RBI over his last week. I'm laying real money to get this number, but this isn't a hitter running hot on empty contact. The underlying quality backs up the production, and I don't see a reason it stops against a pitcher who doesn't miss many bats.

GARY'S PICK

SALVADOR PEREZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +134

Perez has four home runs over his last fifteen games and has already cleared two total bases in ten of them. That's not a name carrying reputation into a game, that's a bat that's actually locked in right now. He's an aggressive swinger who will expand the zone more than I'd like, but Ryan hasn't had the stuff lately to make anyone pay for chasing. I'll ride the hitter who's already doing damage against the pitcher who can't put hitters away.

THE LONG SHOT

TREVOR LARNACHHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +650

Larnach has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, with a home run in each of his last two starts alone. He's a completely different hitter against right-handed pitching than he is against lefties, and Dobnak's fastball and sinker both sit in the low nineties without much to hide them. This is a power number priced like a longshot, but a hitter running this hot against a pitcher this hittable is exactly the kind of gap I want to take a swing at.

GARY'S PICK

NICK GONZALESHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -157

Gonzales is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in that lineup right now, hitting right around .300 over his last stretch and doing it from the side of the plate where he's not fighting the matchup. Henderson's changeup is the pitch that's given lefties nightmares all year — Gonzales doesn't have to deal with that same problem. He's not in a slump, he's not chasing out of the zone, and this is about as clean a look at one hit as this board offers tonight.

GARY'S PICK

LOGAN HENDERSONK'S OVER 6.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +100

Henderson's changeup is the separator here, and it's death on left-handed bats specifically. Pittsburgh is running out a lineup that hits from the left side almost top to bottom tonight between the true lefties and the switch-hitters, which puts him right in his best matchup of the month. He struck out nine two starts back and seven his last time out, and this Pirates group swings and misses more than it walks. I like the strikeout number at even money.

GARY'S PICK

SHOHEI OHTANIH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -106

Ohtani is running the hottest stretch on either roster — 11 hits in his last 22 at-bats with two homers mixed in, and he's slotted into the leadoff spot tonight instead of his usual spot in the order, which means more trips to the plate, not fewer. Assad has handled right-handers fine this year, but lefties are a different problem for him: nine home runs allowed in barely 130 at-bats, a platoon split wide enough to matter. Ohtani hits left-handed. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs isn't a heavy ask from a bat seeing extra pitches at the top of the order against a pitcher with a real, demonstrated issue against hitters standing on that side of the plate.

GARY'S PICK

TARIK SKUBALK'S OVER 7.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +118

First start in a Dodgers uniform, but nothing about how he's pitching suggests an adjustment period. Twenty-seven strikeouts across his last three outings, whiff rates sitting in the 35-45% range for most of that stretch, and a changeup that's missed bats at a 52% clip on the year. The Cubs strike out more as a team than the Dodgers do, and Wrigley doesn't change what a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s curve do when they're locating like this. Eight strikeouts has been a quiet night for him lately, not a stretch.

THE LONG SHOT

SHOHEI OHTANIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +215

Ohtani is in the lineup tonight, batting leadoff at DH, so whatever's been said about the knee and the arm this week hasn't kept him off the field in Chicago. He's been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last week — eleven hits in twenty-two at-bats, two home runs, an OPS near 1.500 — and that stretch is walking into a matchup built for it. Javier Assad throws his sinker more than four times in every ten pitches, and the sinker is the one pitch Ohtani has punished all season: a .434 average and an .849 slugging mark against it. He's also got fourteen home runs against right-handed pitching this year. Assad's 3.75 ERA is also running well ahead of the quality of contact he's allowing — his expected mark sits close to a full run higher — which tells me hitters have been squaring him up more than the scoreboard shows. I want the hottest bat in the league catching up to that tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

TREA TURNERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +800

Palmquist takes the mound with a 7.31 ERA and his last three outings have gone for double-digit runs allowed combined. He's not overpowering anyone either — fastball sitting low 90s, and his cutter has been hit at a .333 clip this year. That's the arm Turner faces tonight. Turner is swinging a hot bat right now — four home runs over his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty contact, the recent exit-velocity and barrel numbers back it up. He's also a right-handed hitter in a park that plays up for right-handed power, against a lefty that right-handed batters have hit .324 against this season. Every piece of this points the same direction. Eight-to-one on a hitter this hot, in this spot, is a number I'll take.

THE LONG SHOT

SEIYA SUZUKIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +500

Suzuki already got to this Dodgers pitching staff last night with a two-run homer, and tonight's matchup sets up even better for him. He's a .991 OPS hitter against left-handed pitching this season with seven home runs in limited at-bats, and tonight he draws a lefty in Tarik Skubal, who's making his first start in a Dodgers uniform after being traded over from Detroit. Skubal leans on his four-seamer and sinker for more than half his pitches, and those are exactly the two pitches Suzuki has handled best all year — he's hitting .379 against the sinker specifically. He's eight-for-twenty-two over the last week with a homer and five RBI, and the wind blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight isn't going to help anyone trying to keep him in the yard.

THE LONG SHOT

ESMERLYN VALDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +383

Valdez is slugging .623 with an expected slugging over .500 — about as strong a power indicator as anyone on this board carries into tonight. He's gone deep in three of his last fifteen games, and he's a right-handed bat stepping in against a pitcher who's actually been more hittable against righties than lefties this season. Henderson's given up a .235 average and a quicker home run rate to right-handed hitters, compared to .176 and a longer home run rate against lefties. Valdez has also done real damage at night, four homers in 84 at-bats, and this is a night game in Milwaukee. I like the shape of this matchup enough to take the price.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +410

Harper is the hottest bat in this lineup — four home runs and well over a thousand OPS points in his last fifteen games, and his underlying contact numbers say he's actually earned even more than that. The one thing I won't ignore is that he's a left-handed hitter facing a left-handed pitcher tonight, and his power drops off substantially against lefties this season compared to what he does against right-handers. Palmquist hasn't shown a real platoon tendency in his own small body of work, so I'm not leaning on that to cancel it out. I like Harper enough to take this number, just without maxing out my conviction on it.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +310

Lowe is the hottest bat on this board. He's hitting .300 with two home runs over his last week, averaging 90.8 mph off the bat with three barreled balls among his last twenty in play — that's the kind of contact quality that tends to keep producing. Henderson has been a little stingier against left-handed hitters by the numbers this season, but it's a small part of a season for a pitcher who only just returned to the rotation, and he and Lowe have never faced each other. I'm not letting a thin split override what Lowe's bat is doing right now. The price is short because the form is real, and I'm still there.

THE LONG SHOT

BRICE TURANGHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +650

Turang against a right-hander is a different hitter than Turang against a lefty — fifteen home runs and a .912 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, against one homer and a .583 OPS versus lefties. Jones is a righty tonight. Jones carries a matching split of his own: right-handed hitters are batting just .132 against him, while lefties have gotten to him for a .753 OPS and five home runs in 116 at-bats. Two signals pointing the same direction. Turang's also swinging a hot bat, two home runs and a .327 average over his last fifteen games. He's 0-for-2 with a strikeout against Jones lifetime, but I'll take the season-long shape of this matchup over a two-at-bat sample.

GARY'S PICK

MACKENZIE GOREPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +149

Gore's stuff is fine — he's missing bats — but he hasn't finished six innings in five of his last six starts. The trouble hasn't been walks, it's been hard contact piling up pitch counts; he's allowed two homers in four of those outings. That's a guy getting into traffic and coming out in the fifth, not the sixth. Nothing about tonight's matchup changes that pattern for me, and Texas's bullpen has been getting steady work, so I don't expect the club to push him past his recent line just because they need length.

GARY'S PICK

JOC PEDERSONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +138

Pederson has feasted on right-handed pitching for years, and tonight he gets a righty making his first real look at a big league lineup. He's got four homers in his last two weeks and he's leading off, so he's guaranteed his at-bats. Plus money on total bases for a hitter with this kind of platoon history against this matchup is the number I want.

GARY'S PICK

YORDAN ALVAREZTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· +100

Alvarez is hitting .413 with a 1.311 OPS over his last fifteen days, and it's not just empty average — nineteen home runs at home this season, and a .543 expected weighted average specifically against four-seam fastballs. Yesavage throws that exact pitch almost half the time, and by his own numbers it's the one offering in his mix that gets hit — .329 expected wOBA allowed on the fastball, well behind what his splitter and slider are doing to everybody else. That's the best hitter in this lineup getting the one pitch he does the most damage on, from the pitcher who leans on it most. Even money for two total bases out of a hitter running this hot at home is a number worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

TREY YESAVAGEK'S OVER 5.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -105

Two of Yesavage's last three starts ended in nine strikeouts. The other one, his most recent turn against Washington, he settled for four — pitching to contact instead of blowing it by people, and it still worked, one earned run in six-plus innings. I'd rather bet on the version of him that misses bats, because the raw stuff supports it every time he lets it eat: his splitter and slider are both getting whiffed on close to forty percent of swings, and neither pitch is letting hitters hit .230. Six strikeouts is a below-average night for him when he goes six innings, which he's done in four of his last six starts. Houston has some grinders in this lineup, but nothing here plays like a contact team, and Yesavage doesn't need a platoon edge to get through it — he's been just as tough on lefties as righties all year.

GARY'S PICK

WILLI CASTROH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +109

Castro's swinging it as well as anyone in this lineup right now — seven for eighteen with two homers over his last week, a 1.333 OPS in that stretch, eleven for forty with three homers and a .970 OPS across his last fifteen days. He's a switch-hitter, so he gets the left-handed box against Peralta tonight, and Peralta is the one starter in this game who's been getting hurt by lefties specifically all year. A bat running this hot has cleared a hit-run-RBI combined in twelve of his last fifteen games, and the price still isn't asking me to lay anything for it. I don't need much more than a hot hitter, a favorable side of the plate, and a number the market hasn't caught up to yet.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL HUGHESPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 3.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -140

Hughes has quietly turned a corner. Three and a half earned runs is a number he hasn't touched in any of his last five starts — not once. Fifteen and a third innings, six earned runs, a 3.52 ERA across his last three trips to the mound, and he's specifically been better at home than away this year, a 2.03 ERA at Coors against a 4.91 mark on the road, which is backwards from what you'd expect out of a pitcher at altitude and tells me he's comfortable in this ballpark. He's allowing hard contact eleven points less often than Peralta is on the other side, under twenty-eight percent. I already like Colorado to win this one outright at home; Hughes keeping the damage under three and a half earned runs is the same read from the pitcher's side of it.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY MONIAKHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +361

Moniak is a left-handed bat walking into the exact matchup he wants. Peralta's been getting taken deep by lefties all year — thirteen home runs allowed in two hundred ninety-seven at-bats, an .811 OPS against — and Moniak specifically punishes right-handed pitching, a .946 OPS and sixteen home runs in two hundred nine at-bats against arms throwing from that side this year. At Coors his power plays up even more: fourteen home runs in a hundred fifty-four at-bats at home, an OPS over 1.000. He's been on this heater for two weeks — three homers in his last fifteen games, a .911 OPS in that stretch — and now he draws a pitcher making his first start in a new uniform, in the thinnest air in the sport, leaning on a lot of spin that doesn't bite the same up here. Plus money on a lefty masher of right-handers, at altitude, against a guy who's already given up thirteen bombs to lefties this season. I like the shot.

GARY'S PICK

TROY MELTONPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -159

Eleven starts into this season and Melton still hasn't found a bad month — 1.42 in May, 2.88 in June, then 0.92 in July, and the shape of it keeps improving as the workload builds. His last three outings: 17.2 innings, three earned runs, nineteen strikeouts against ten walks. That's not a hot streak riding batted-ball luck, that's a pitcher who's turned a mid-90s fastball plus a cutter and slider into something opposing lineups have to earn their way through. Seattle's hitting .231 as a team and scoring four a night, and Melton doesn't have a platoon to exploit against him — lefties are hitting .174 against him, righties .173. Whichever half of the Mariners' order gets in there, the number says the same thing. He's cleared this exact line in seven of his last eight turns. I'll lay the price and take the arm.

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER TORKELSONRBI OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +225

Torkelson's driven in eleven runs across his last fifteen games and seven of those came in just the last week — a .391 average with a .965 OPS over that stretch, and he's doing it without expanding the zone, an 18 percent chase rate that says the contact is earned, not lucky. He bats sixth behind a lineup that's put up thirty-two runs over its last three games combined, which means traffic on the bases in front of him most nights right now. Plus money on a guy running a real RBI streak, hitting behind an offense that keeps putting people on. I'm taking the number.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY VASQUEZPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -165

Three starts back for Vásquez and the damage is ugly — nine innings, eleven earned runs, and he hasn't made it through the fifth in four of his last six trips to the mound. Left-handed bats have hit .318 with an .895 OPS against him this year, and Arizona sends out Carroll, Perdomo, Kepler and Marte in the top four, all lefty or switch bats standing on the left side against him tonight. This is a lineup built to expose exactly the hole he has. Arizona's coming off a 5-1 win in the opener and has scored six runs a game over the last two weeks. One and a half earned runs is a number he's blown through in five of his last eight starts, and nothing about this matchup says he holds the line tonight.

GARY'S PICK

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -154

Rodriguez has been a horse at Chase Field all year — 2.47 ERA in eleven starts here — and he's gone at least six innings in five of his last six turns, including eight in his last time out against Pittsburgh. His whiff rate has climbed in each of his last four starts, up to 24 percent his last time out, which tells me he's missing more bats now than he was a month ago, not fewer. San Diego just burned Peralta and Estrada on back-to-back nights and Jason Adam is gone for the year to the sixty-day, so there's real incentive for this staff to let their best arm work deep tonight rather than hand it to a taxed pen. Seventeen and a half outs is basically his floor at home right now.

THE LONG SHOT

FERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +525

Tatis has gone deep twice against Rodriguez in his career, albeit in a small sample, and he's shown real pop lately, going deep in three of his last fifteen games. Rodriguez has actually been more homer-prone against right-handed bats this season — ten home runs allowed in 339 at-bats against righties compared to three in 146 against lefties — and Tatis swings from the right side. This is a power bet at power-bet odds, but the specific history against this pitcher and the specific split both point the same direction, and plus five-twenty-five pays enough to make it worth the swing.

Research

174

CUT LISTHOU tonight
Hayden Wesneski
Starts tonight for HOU — 8.37 xERA behind a 4.76 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ PHI
Nationals 1-7 in Zack Littell's last 8 starts
Littell's team has dropped five straight with him starting, and it's 1-7 in his last eight overall. Tough trend to reverse walking into Philadelphia tonight.
TEAM RECORDPIT @ MIL
Brewers 7-1 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Henderson's turned every fifth day into a near-lock for Milwaukee — seven straight wins with him on the mound, 7-1 over his last eight. Hard streak to bet against.
TEAM RECORDLAD @ CHC
Cubs 7-1 in Javier Assad's last 8 starts
Cubs are 7-1 in Assad's last eight starts, but the Dodgers are a sharper lineup than most of what built that number. Worth seeing if it holds against real competition tonight.
TEAM RECORDDET @ SEA
Tigers 7-1 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Melton's dragged Detroit to a 7-1 mark over his last eight starts, five wins running, and the peripherals actually back a good chunk of it — sub-1 WHIP, better than a strikeout an inning. The ERA's a shade better than it should be, but this isn't empty smoke.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ PHI
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Crews leading off against a lefty is exactly the matchup his numbers want — .966 against southpaws versus .554 against everyone else. And it's Luzardo he's getting, a pitcher who's been getting hit hard in his own ballpark specifically.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Hayden Wesneski (RHP)
Lukes hitting leadoff against a righty is the good version of him — .771 against right-handers compared to .359 against lefties in a smaller sample. Wesneski's exactly the hand he's built to handle.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CUT LISTSF tonight
Buddy Kennedy
Still hitting 6th for SF — 0.276 OPS, 0.059 AVG from the 6-hole.
TEAM RECORDSD @ ARI
Diamondbacks 6-1 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 7 starts
Arizona's ridden Eduardo Rodriguez to a 6-1 mark in his last seven, four wins running. San Diego's lineup is a tougher out than the stretch that built that record.
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 7-2 vs Nationals this season
Philadelphia's already handled Washington all season, 7-2, and hung six on them last time out. Nothing in that series says the Nationals show up different tonight.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 6-1 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's owned this season series with Milwaukee, 6-1, with a 4-3 win last time out. Doesn't change that Henderson's on the mound for the Brewers tonight, which cuts hard the other way.
STREAKTOR @ HOU
HOU have won 6 straight
Houston's six-game streak has come with a plus-22 run differential. That's not winning close, that's burying people, and Toronto walks right into it tonight.
P team won 2-7
STREAKNYM @ CLE
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Mets games have gone dead quiet — six straight unders, under 5 runs a night against lines usually near 8. Tonight's number is 7.5, still asking a lot given the trend.
P final total 8 vs 7.5
STREAKMIA @ ATL
ATL have won 6 straight
Atlanta's six-game streak comes with a plus-14 run margin attached — that's not a team sneaking by. Real form walking into tonight against Miami.
P team won 2-4
HEAT CHECKTOR @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.283 OPS in Last 15 Days
Pena's been on a different planet the last two weeks — 1.283 OPS against a .901 season mark that was already strong. Thirteen homers on the year, and a 1.5 total-base line tonight looks light for where his bat currently is.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Grayson Rodriguez
Starts tonight for LAA — 7.92 xERA behind a 7.98 ERA.
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ ATL
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Grant Holmes (RHP), batting 1st
Stowers leading off against a righty plays right into his split — .854 against right-handers compared to .509 against lefties. That's a real gap for a guy who's going to see more pitches than anyone else in the lineup tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ PHI
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
House gets the same gift as Crews tonight — a lefty to face when his numbers against lefties (.974 OPS) dwarf what he does against right-handers (.546). Luzardo at Citizens Bank Park hasn't been the same pitcher he is on the road.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang against a right-hander from the leadoff spot is the matchup his numbers want — .912 against righties, .583 against lefties. Jared Jones throws exactly the hand he does damage against.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDCHW @ BOS
White Sox 2-6 in Davis Martin's last 8 starts
Davis Martin taking the ball hasn't worked out for the White Sox — 2-6 in his last eight starts. Now he takes it to Boston.
HR THREATMarlins @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson is in the best power stretch anyone in that Atlanta lineup has had all year — three straight games with a home run coming into tonight, four in his last six, 31 on the season and tied for fourth in the league. This isn't a hot hand about to cool off, either — he's been squaring the ball up hard even on the days it hasn't left the yard, which tells me the underlying swing is exactly where it needs to be.
P 0 HR — 2-for-3, 3 TB
TEAM RECORDLAA @ BAL
Angels 2-6 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
Grayson Rodriguez starting hasn't been a good sign this year — 2-6 in his last eight, three losses running. Baltimore's the tougher side of tonight's matchup too.
SITUATIONALSD @ ARI
18.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 18.7 innings over the last 3 games (German Marquez (5) and Yuki Matsui (3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 12 over the same span.
P flagged side won 9-4
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ BAL
Pete Alonso
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.93 xERA) — .811 OPS, bats 2nd.
REGRESSIONMIN @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.04 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
A 1.04 ERA next to a 4.58 expected mark is about as wide a gap as you'll find. Dobnak's barrel rate is tame, so it's not pure carnage, but a 65-point gap between his actual and expected average doesn't hold forever — I wouldn't assume tonight's the night it corrects, just that it's living on borrowed time.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
PLATOON EDGENYM @ CLE
Jo Adell (bats R) hits 2nd against Sean Manaea (LHP)
Adell hitting second against a lefty is the good version of this matchup — .910 against southpaws compared to .593 against right-handers over a much bigger sample. Manaea's the hand he's built for.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFSTL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .517 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Rice has gone cold — .517 OPS over his last 15 days against a .907 season mark — but tonight's actually a plus matchup on paper, a righty in Hunter Dobbins he's historically crushed (.971 OPS vs right-handers). Good spot to snap out of it if he's going to.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez
Pickup vs Hayden Wesneski (8.38 xERA) — .742 OPS, bats 6th.
PLATOON EDGETB @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.946 OPS, 209 AB) sits well above his .627 mark the other way (51 AB). Tonight's starter Freddy Peralta throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
STREAKOAK @ CIN
OAK have lost 5 straight
Oakland's been buried the last five games, outscored by 28 total. That's not a team hanging around late, that's one getting run off the field.
P team lost 4-5
STREAKTOR @ HOU
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Blue Jays games have gone quiet on the scoreboard — five straight unders, barely over 5 runs a night against lines usually near 8.3. Tonight's total sits even higher at 8.5 against a Houston team that's been scoring in bunches, so this one pulls in two directions.
P final total 9 vs 8.5
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
George Springer
Pickup vs Hayden Wesneski (8.38 xERA) — .728 OPS, bats 4th.
PLATOON EDGESTL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Garcia hitting third against a righty is right in his wheelhouse — .931 against right-handers versus .616 against lefties in limited looks. Dobbins is the hand he wants to see.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGETB @ COL
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Gabriel Hughes (RHP)
Hicks batting cleanup against a right-hander is where his numbers say he belongs — .876 against righties compared to .515 against lefties. Gabriel Hughes is exactly the matchup he's built to punish.
P 2-for-5, 6 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATDodgers @ Cubs
Shohei Ohtani
Gary's Take Ohtani is in the lineup tonight, batting leadoff at DH, so whatever's been said about the knee and the arm this week hasn't kept him off the field in Chicago. He's been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last week — eleven hits in twenty-two at-bats, two home runs, an OPS near 1.500 — and that stretch is walking into a matchup built for it.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: 1.017 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's turned a modest .685 season line into a 1.017 OPS over his last 51 plate appearances. Sixteen home runs on the season, and right now he's a different hitter than his year-long numbers suggest.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ HOU
Yordan Alvarez (bats L) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Yordan Alvarez's vs. Right line (1.165 OPS, 296 AB) sits well above his .886 mark the other way (110 AB). Tonight's starter Trey Yesavage throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFMIA @ ATL
Otto Lopez: .516 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
Lopez has cooled off hard — .516 OPS over his last 15 days against an .833 season mark — and tonight doesn't offer any relief. Grant Holmes and the .804 OPS he allows to right-handers is still Lopez's weaker platoon side.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HR THREATMarlins @ Braves
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Stowers has been the hottest bat on either roster over the last week — three home runs in his last seven games, four over his last fifteen, and it's coming with legitimately hard contact, not just balls finding the seats. He's given right-handed pitching real problems all season, and that's exactly the matchup he draws tonight against Grant Holmes.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .560 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Logan Henderson
Bryan Reynolds's .560 OPS over the last 15 days (56 PA) trails his .832 season mark, down 0.272. Tonight he draws RHP Logan Henderson — his weaker side: a .823 OPS vs RHP across 276 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGESF @ TEX
Daniel Susac (bats R) draws MacKenzie Gore (LHP), batting 5th
Daniel Susac carries a .948 OPS vs. Left (42 AB) against .587 the other way (90 AB), and faces LHP MacKenzie Gore from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ KC
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Randy Dobnak (RHP)
Over 258 AB vs. Right, Trevor Larnach owns a .862 OPS versus .619 in 36 AB the other way. He sees RHP Randy Dobnak tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATNationals @ Phillies
Trea Turner
Gary's Take Palmquist takes the mound with a 7.31 ERA and his last three outings have gone for double-digit runs allowed combined. He's not overpowering anyone either — fastball sitting low 90s, and his cutter has been hit at a .333 clip this year.
P 0 HR — 3-for-4, 3 TB
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
Gary's Take Rafaela isn't sneaking into this matchup on a name — he's four home runs deep into the Dodgers series alone, with a two-homer night on Saturday and three straight games leaving the yard heading into tonight. Over his last fifteen days he's hitting .339 with a 1.089 OPS.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr. (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Ronald Acuna Jr.'s vs. Right line (.871 OPS, 145 AB) sits well above his .597 mark the other way (76 AB). Tonight's starter Ryan Gusto throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
COOLING OFFCHW @ BOS
Wilyer Abreu: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Abreu's been quiet for two weeks, .485 OPS against a .757 season mark, and Davis Martin tonight is his tougher side too at .666 against right-handers. Doesn't look like the get-right spot.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGESF @ TEX
Evan Carter (bats L) gets a RHP from the 6th spot
Evan Carter's vs. Right line (.722 OPS, 224 AB) sits well above his .322 mark the other way (41 AB). Tonight's starter Blade Tidwell throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.089 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rafaela's running a 1.089 OPS over his last 15 days against an .805 season mark — real heat, and he's already got 15 homers on the year. That 1.5 total-base line tonight looks like it hasn't caught up to how hot he's been.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .433 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Carson Palmquist
Marsh has gone ice cold — .433 OPS over his last 15 days — and tonight he draws a lefty in Carson Palmquist, exactly the side he's struggled against all year (.640 OPS vs lefties). Tough combination to snap out of it.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ ATL
Braves are 5-2 vs Marlins this season
Atlanta's beaten Miami 5-2 this season and put up nine on them last time out. Add the six-game winning streak and this looks like a real gap between these two right now.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ BAL
Jackson Holliday
Pickup vs Grayson Rodriguez (7.93 xERA) — .742 OPS, bats 5th.
SITUATIONALLAD @ CHC
15.3 bullpen innings in 3 games for LAD
Relievers have absorbed 15.3 innings over the last 3 games (Cole Irvin (6) and Kyle Hurt (2) the heaviest). CHC's pen has thrown 8 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-5
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Both turns are still ahead of him this week — Rays at home today, then a Sunday trip to face the Cardinals. Nothing's been banked yet, so this is a clean two-start week. His 2.33 xERA is the best number of any arm in this group. MUST-START — full two-start week, best xERA in the group.
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days
Rengifo's been a completely different hitter over his last 44 plate appearances — .986 OPS compared to a .633 season line. That's a real jump, even allowing for the shorter sample.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFSTL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .416 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Trent Grisham's in a real slide — .416 OPS over his last 48 plate appearances against a .701 season mark — and Dobbins' right arm tonight is the side that's given him the most trouble all season.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BALLPARKWSH @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 5.53 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 2.01 everywhere else
Luzardo turns into a different pitcher at Citizens Bank Park — 5.53 ERA there against 2.01 anywhere else he's thrown. That split is the headline walking into tonight's game in Philadelphia.
P 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
COOLING OFFSTL @ NYY
Jordan Walker: .567 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Ryan Weathers
Walker's OPS has dropped to .567 over his last 15 days from an .834 season mark, but tonight's actually a decent bounce-back spot — Ryan Weathers is a lefty, and lefties are the one thing Walker's still hitting well (.914 OPS).
SITUATIONALLAA @ BAL
LAA's pen has logged 14.7 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 14.7 innings out of the pen — Brett Kerry (4) and Jose Fermin (2.7) carried the load. BAL's pen has thrown 9 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 1-3
COOLING OFFTB @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .596 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Freddy Peralta
McCarthy's dipped to a .596 OPS over his last 15 days from an .819 season mark, and Freddy Peralta tonight is his weaker side at .783 against right-handers. Not the easiest spot to find his timing again, especially with Peralta himself coming off a rough last three starts.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
STREAKSF @ TEX
TEX games have gone OVER 4 straight
Rangers games have turned into track meets — four straight overs at 9.3 combined runs a night against lines near 7.5. The number's barely moved to 7.75 tonight, so the market hasn't fully caught up.
P final total 9 vs 7.5
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.169 OPS in Last 15 Days
Abrams is at a 1.169 OPS over his last 15 days against a .908 season mark that was already strong, with 28 homers on the year. A 0.5 total-base line tonight is about as low a bar as you'll find for a guy running this hot.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
COOLING OFFNYM @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .483 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Sean Manaea
Rocchio's cooled to a .483 OPS over his last 15 days from a .702 season mark, and Sean Manaea tonight is his weaker side at .657 against lefties. Doesn't look like the spot he breaks out of it.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 2 BB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two home starts on tap — Pirates today, Twins to close the week Sunday. Both are still in front of him. 2.67 xERA, second-best mark here, and he doesn't have to leave home to get it. MUST-START — two-start week, both at home.
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.47 ERA vs 7.22 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 4.47 ERA against a 7.22 expected ERA (2.75 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .264 vs .316 expected.
HEAT CHECKOAK @ CIN
Lawrence Butler: .988 OPS in Last 15 Days
Butler's turned it on — .988 OPS over his last 15 days compared to a .633 season mark, one of the bigger swings on the board tonight. That 1.5 total-base line looks like it hasn't caught up to how he's actually been hitting.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Zack Littell
Starts tonight for WSH — 6.12 xERA behind a 4.94 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
COOLING OFFCHW @ BOS
Colson Montgomery: .415 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Montgomery's in a rough stretch, .415 OPS over his last 15 days against a .744 season mark, but tonight's actually his good side — Patrick Sandoval's a lefty, and lefties are who he's hit best all year at .873. Worth watching if he flips it around.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKOAK @ CIN
Brady Singer owns a 2.73 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 5.89 everywhere else
Singer at home is a different pitcher than Singer on the road — 2.73 ERA at Great American Ball Park against 5.89 everywhere else, hitters held to .234 there. Pair that with Oakland's own five-game slide and this sets up lopsided tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.47 ERA vs 7.21 xERA
Sugano's 4.47 ERA already isn't pretty, and a 7.21 expected mark says even that's flattering him — a 44.6% hard-hit rate and barrels near 14% mean hitters are squaring him up for real. Not a great profile to carry into Tampa Bay tomorrow.
SITUATIONALOAK @ CIN
14 bullpen innings in 3 games for OAK
Relievers have absorbed 14 innings over the last 3 games (Hayden Juenger (2) and Brady Basso (2) the heaviest). CIN's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-5
REGRESSIONSD @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.48 ERA vs 4.8 xERA
Rodriguez's ERA and his expected number are more than two runs apart, and an 8.8% barrel rate says some of the contact against him has had real pop. San Diego's lineup is a fair test of whether the results keep outrunning the process tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Both starts are on the road this week — at the Cubs today, at the Diamondbacks Sunday. Neither turn is used yet. 2.98 xERA, tied for the middle of this group, with the full slate still ahead. MUST-START — two-start week, both on the road.
BULLPENSD @ ARI
San Diego Padres pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Diego's bullpen is thin where it counts tonight — Estrada's worked three straight days, and Morejon and Peralta have both gone twice in this stretch. Miller and Matsui are the only real fresh arms left if this one's tight late against Arizona.
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
The Cardinals turn already came and went Monday, so what's left this week is one start — Braves at home Saturday. 2.89 xERA is a strong number, but anyone who slotted him in for two turns this week is one short. START Saturday — one turn left, not a two-start week.
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
Trea Turner: .909 OPS in Last 15 Days
Turner's running a .909 OPS over his last 15 days, up more than two hundred points from his .697 season line, with 16 homers on the year. A 1.5 total-base number tonight feels light for where his bat currently is.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Two home starts remain — Nationals today, Blue Jays Sunday. Neither has been used. 2.98 xERA puts him in the middle of this group, and the schedule still hands him a full week of work. MUST-START — full two-start week at home.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ HOU
George Springer: .954 OPS in Last 15 Days
Springer's running a .954 OPS over his last 15 days against a .728 season mark, 12 homers on the year — and he's not the only one hot in that lineup, with Pena doing the same thing right behind him. His 1.5 total-base line tonight looks like it's lagging the form.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKLAD @ CHC
Teoscar Hernandez: .996 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hernandez has been locked in — .996 OPS over his last 15 days versus a .747 season mark, with 11 homers on the year. He's not walking into an easy park to keep it going, either — Assad and the Cubs have been rolling at Wrigley all season.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ KC
Salvador Perez: .869 OPS in Last 15 Days
Perez is at an .869 OPS over his last 15 days against a .639 season mark — a real jump for a guy who already has 16 homers this year. That 1.5 total-base line tonight looks beatable given how he's swinging it right now.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
SITUATIONALCHW @ BOS
CHW's bullpen has covered 13.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Noah Schultz (5) and Tyler Schweitzer (3). BOS's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-14
SITUATIONALPIT @ MIL
PIT's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Carmen Mlodzinski (3) and Gregory Soto (2.3) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 11 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-4
BULLPENLAA @ BAL
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kerry's four-inning outing was bulk length, not a normal relief stint, so he's likely off the board tonight. Zeferjahn's the only fully fresh arm left in that pen, which matters if the Angels need innings late against Baltimore.
HEAT CHECKSF @ TEX
Jung Hoo Lee: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.037 OPS versus .794 for the season, 0.243 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKSTL @ NYY
Austin Wells: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 23 PA: a 1.037 OPS versus .558 for the season, 0.479 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
SITUATIONALNYM @ CLE
NYM's bullpen has covered 13.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 13.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Xzavion Curry (5) and Jonathan Pintaro (2). CLE's pen has thrown 9.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 6-2
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
A road-then-home week — at the Brewers today, home for the Mets Sunday. Both starts are still ahead of him. 3.02 xERA, the midpoint of this group of arms. MUST-START — full two-start week, home-and-away split.
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .569 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Carson Palmquist
Kyle Schwarber's .569 OPS over the last 15 days (35 PA) trails his .897 season mark, down 0.328. Tonight he draws LHP Carson Palmquist — his stronger side: a .961 OPS vs LHP across 155 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMOAK @ CIN
J.T. Ginn: 6.14 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ginn's ERA has ballooned to 6.14 over his last three starts, well above his 3.46 season mark, though his WHIP in that stretch is actually a touch better than his season number — that reads as damage on contact rather than traffic problems. Shaky trend walking into tonight's game, one where Oakland is already carrying a five-game skid of its own.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKNYM @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .907 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a .907 OPS versus .677 for the season, 0.23 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FIRST INNINGDET @ SEA
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of DET @ SEA
Seattle's scored a first-inning run in ten straight games, and Detroit's not far off at seven of ten — fast starts on both sides lately. Hancock's own first-inning numbers, a 1.80 ERA and .171 against, don't really match that trend, which is the interesting push-pull here.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TWO STARTSDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
3.26 xERA, the back half of this group by the numbers, but nothing's been played yet — two more road starts, at the Mariners tonight and at the Giants Sunday. Start him both nights, the two-start slot is worth it even at his number.
BALLPARKLAD @ CHC
At Wrigley Field, Javier Assad pitches to a 2.22 ERA
Assad at Wrigley is close to a different pitcher — 2.22 ERA at home against 4.79 on the road, hitters hitting just .182 off him there. Combined with the Cubs' 7-1 mark in his starts, that home number carries real weight against the Dodgers tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/3
Ian Seymour
Monday's start at the Rockies is already in the book, leaving one turn this week — at the Mariners Saturday. 3.35 xERA is the highest number in this group, and with only one start left there's less week to lean on him. START Saturday — one turn left, plan the rest of the roster around a single start.
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/3
Trey Yesavage
Two road starts remain — at the Astros today, at the Phillies Sunday. Neither's been used, so it's a full two-start week. 3.33 xERA, second-highest of this bunch, but he's still in that top tier of arms worth building a week around. MUST-START — two-start week, both on the road.
TOMORROWOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.69 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CIN. A 5.79 ERA against a 3.69 expected ERA (2.1 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .218 expected.
STARTER FORMNYM @ CLE
Joey Cantillo: 6.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cantillo's WHIP has jumped nearly half a run over his season number across his last three outings, and the ERA's followed at 6.39. Pitcher trending the wrong way walking into the Mets tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
TOMORROWOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.69 xERA
Lopez's 5.79 ERA against a 3.69 expected mark is one of the widest gaps out there, and it's running against him — hard contact under 31%, a barrel rate under 5%, both numbers belonging to a pitcher throwing better than his ERA says. Opponents are hitting nearly sixty points higher than the contact quality suggests they should. Tomorrow against Cincinnati, I'd expect the results to start catching up to how well he's actually pitching.
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ BAL
Ryan Zeferjahn / Kirby Yates
Shared ninth in LAA: Ryan Zeferjahn 4 saves, Kirby Yates 3. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHLAD @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Caleb Thielbar
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Caleb Thielbar 3. The role is live.
STARTER FORMTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 7.24 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eleven earned runs across his last three starts is a rough stretch by any measure — Peralta's WHIP and ERA are both running well past his already-shaky season numbers. Whatever's going on right now has shown up in a hurry.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
CLOSER WATCHCHW @ BOS
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 5 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ BAL
Mitch Farris / Sam Bachman
Shared ninth in LAA: Mitch Farris 1 saves, Sam Bachman 1. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHSF @ TEX
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.
REGRESSIONTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .228 xBA
Moniak's hitting .277 against a .228 expected average over 283 plate appearances, and his wOBA tells the same story — .371 against a .304 expected mark. That's a season built on more than just the quality of contact he's making.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
CLOSER WATCHSF @ TEX
Erik Miller / Ryan Walker
Shared ninth in SF: Erik Miller 4 saves, Ryan Walker 3. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHMIN @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
SITUATIONALSTL @ NYY
NYY's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Angel Chivilli (1.7) and Fernando Cruz (1.7) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 10.7 over the same span.
P flagged side won 0-2
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Nick Martinez: 2.77 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Martinez's contact numbers are clean — hard-hit under 33%, barrels under 8% — so the gap between his 2.77 ERA and 4.58 expected mark reads more like good sequencing than good fortune. I'd trust what he's actually doing on the mound over the regression math walking into Colorado tomorrow.
TOMORROWTB @ COL
Nick Martinez: 2.77 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs COL. A 2.77 ERA against a 4.58 expected ERA (1.81 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .247 vs .279 expected.
REGRESSIONDET @ SEA
Troy Melton: 1.75 ERA vs 3.26 xERA
Melton's 1.75 ERA against a 3.26 expected mark looks like a gap that should close, but the peripherals actually back a lot of it up — sub-1 WHIP, over eight strikeouts per nine, hitters not squaring him up. The one soft spot is opponents hitting .174 against a .220 expected mark, smaller than most of these gaps but still there. About as earned a sub-2 ERA as you'll find on the board tonight.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .302 AVG vs .254 xBA
Mangum's hitting .302 against a .254 expected average, with his .325 wOBA sitting well above the .283 his contact quality supports over 323 plate appearances. The results have outpaced the underlying quality for a while now.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 8/4
Brendan Donovan
Listed back 8/4 (10-Day-IL, groin) — 0.839 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHSEA — return listed 8/4
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/4 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
REGRESSIONTB @ COL
Cole Carrigg: .308 AVG vs .265 xBA
Carrigg's hitting .308 against a .265 expected average over 173 plate appearances, with a wOBA of .390 against a .340 expected mark. Good production so far, but the underlying contact isn't fully backing up the results.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Spencer Horwitz: .276 AVG vs .231 xBA
Horwitz's .276 average is running ahead of a .231 expected mark, and his .365 wOBA tells the same story against a .332 expected number over 303 plate appearances.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENPIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Doval's pitched two days running, even with light pitch counts, and Soto's carrying more mileage on that same short turnaround. Mlodzinski's bulk outing takes him out of it too, leaving Marinaccio, Ramírez, and Montgomery as the fresher arms if Pittsburgh needs the pen against Milwaukee tonight.
REGRESSIONLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .226 AVG vs .268 xBA
Mookie's contact quality says .268, his batting average says .226 — same story in wOBA versus expected, off by nearly 30 points. Over 322 plate appearances that's too big a sample to wave off as noise, and it's the kind of gap that tends to close before a season's out.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .289 AVG vs .248 xBA
The same Rafaela running hot the last two weeks has also outhit his expected numbers all season — .289 against a .248 expected average, .349 wOBA against .288 expected, across 441 plate appearances. The recent heat is real, but even his baseline was already running better than the contact earns.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
RUNNING GAMENYM @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Luis Torrens (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland's plenty willing to run, but tonight they'd be testing a catcher who's caught 15 of 37 attempts. A 41% clip is well above what most backstops throw out — I like the arm in that matchup if the Guardians get aggressive early.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 0 bases
TOMORROWMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 6.5 ERA vs 4.93 xERA
A 6.5 ERA looks bad on its face, but Kremer's expected number is nearly a run and a half lower, and the contact quality against him isn't alarming. Probably a better pitcher than his last several results against Kansas City tomorrow would suggest.
REGRESSIONCHW @ BOS
Chase Meidroth: .273 AVG vs .232 xBA
Meidroth's hitting .273 against a .232 expected average across 452 plate appearances, with a wOBA of .329 against a .292 expected mark. That's a full season of data now, and it's still running ahead of what the contact quality says it should.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 6.5 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 6.5 ERA against a 4.94 expected ERA (1.56 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .271 vs .256 expected.
STARTER FORMOAK @ CIN
Brady Singer: 2.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Fifteen strikeouts and five earned runs across his last three starts — Singer's found something, running almost two runs under his season ERA in that stretch. Pair that with him pitching at home tonight and this looks like a strong version of him against Oakland.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONTB @ COL
Freddy Peralta: 4.99 ERA vs 3.79 xERA
Zoom out to the season and the picture flips on Peralta — strikeouts near nine per nine, barrels under 6%, and an ERA running a full run worse than his expected number. The stuff says he's been unlucky overall, even sitting right on top of an ugly three-start stretch.
P 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Luis Arraez: .324 AVG vs .285 xBA
Luis Arraez is hitting .324 against a .285 expected average (xBA) over 464 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .345 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
TOMORROWWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.72 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
Painter's expected ERA is a run and a half better than his actual number, but 5.23 still isn't good on its own — this reads as a pitcher who's genuinely struggled, just not quite this badly. Some correction is likely against Washington tomorrow, though the baseline isn't great to start from.
TOMORROWWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.72 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 6.72 ERA against a 5.24 expected ERA (1.48 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .304 vs .271 expected.
BULLPENCHW @ BOS
Chicago White Sox pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Only six arms have covered this stretch for Chicago, and two of them — Schultz and Schweitzer — turned in bulk-length outings that take them out of the mix right away. Taylor, Davitt, and Domínguez are the only real fresh options if tonight's game in Boston turns into a bullpen game.
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Zack Littell: 4.94 ERA vs 6.12 xERA
Littell's actual ERA already isn't good, and the expected number says it should be over a run worse — a 44% hard-hit rate and barrels near 11% back that up. Combined with the Nationals' 1-7 mark in his starts, tonight in Philadelphia looks like a tough spot.
P 6.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh runs almost a bag a game, and tonight that's against a catcher who's caught 20 of 50 basestealers. Contreras has one of the better arms behind the plate in the league, so this is strength meeting strength, not a green light.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
STARTER FORMMIA @ ATL
Grant Holmes: 5.52 ERA over his last 3 starts
Eighteen hits allowed across his last three starts tells you where this is coming from — Holmes has been getting hit hard, running a run and a half over his season number. Shaky trend to carry into tonight's game between Miami and Atlanta.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
BATTER VS ARMSD @ ARI
Corbin Carroll vs Randy Vasquez: .417
Corbin Carroll is 5-for-12 against Randy Vasquez for his career, and he's carrying a .738 OPS over his last 15 games into the rematch. History and current form are pointing the same direction here.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ NYY
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ SEA
Troy Melton
Streamer vs SEA — 3.26 xERA · 8.1 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP.
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Lawrence Butler
Still hitting 1th for OAK — 0.633 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 1-hole.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Rengifo's hitting second tonight, but a .633 OPS and .237 average is backup-infielder offense wearing a table-setter's spot in the order. The lineup slot buys at-bats, not results — and on a season-long roster you're not paying for tonight, you're paying for the next four months. Production this far below replacement level doesn't earn a bench spot just because he started today. CUT
CLOSER WATCHSTL @ NYY
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 24 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.639 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 4-hole.
CLOSER WATCHWSH @ PHI
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 24 saves this season (next closest: Caleb Kilian with 8).
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
CLOSER WATCHNYM @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
RUNNING GAMEMIA @ ATL
Green light: Miami Marlins run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 15%
Drake Baldwin has caught just 6 of 41 runners this season, and Miami already runs more than most teams at 1.4 attempts a game. That's about as clean a green light as this slate offers — I'd expect the Marlins to push the issue all night.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
CUT LISTSEA tonight
Cal Raleigh
Still hitting 6th for SEA — 0.577 OPS, 0.162 AVG from the 6-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ HOU
Trey Yesavage
Streamer vs HOU — 3.33 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ KC
Minnesota Twins like to run — Carter Jensen (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 39% caught-stealing rate (17 of 44) and Minnesota Twins run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Minnesota Twins stole 2 bases
CUT LISTBAL tonight
Cade Povich
Starts tonight for BAL — 5.34 xERA behind a 5.12 ERA.
FIRST INNINGMIA @ ATL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ ATL
Both lineups have been quiet early this stretch — three first-inning runs in ten games apiece. Neither starter's first-inning number is overwhelming either, but the market's still leaning under here.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOMORROWDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 4.56 ERA vs 3.53 xERA
Woo's average against basically matches his expected average, so this isn't about balls finding holes — it's timing, hits and runs landing at worse moments than the process would predict. If that form holds, the ERA drifts back toward the mid-threes against Detroit tomorrow.
TOMORROWDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 4.56 ERA vs 3.54 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs DET. A 4.56 ERA against a 3.54 expected ERA (1.02 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .240 expected.
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Still hitting 3th for NYM — 0.660 OPS, 0.254 AVG from the 3-hole.
FIRST INNINGPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Both sides sit at three first-inning runs in their last ten, and both starters have been sharp early — Henderson at a 1.00 ERA, Jones even stingier at .154 against. Clean setup for a quiet first inning tonight.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
REGRESSIONNYM @ CLE
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
Ten and twenty in one-run games is about as unlucky as a split gets — a .333 mark in the tight ones usually finds its way back toward .500. If the Mets are being priced purely off their overall record, that number's leaving something out.
TOMORROWSF @ TEX
Carson Whisenhunt: 6.63 ERA vs 7.64 xERA
Whisenhunt's 6.63 ERA is actually better than his 7.64 expected mark, and a 47.5% hard-hit rate with an 11.9% barrel rate both jump off the page. There's no hidden luck story here — against Texas tomorrow, the process is as rough as the results.
RUNNING GAMESTL @ NYY
New York Yankees like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
The Yankees run more than most at 1.3 attempts a night, but Pagés has caught 17 of 52 basestealers this year. That's a strong enough number that I'd expect at least one runner to pay for testing him tonight.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
TOMORROWPIT @ MIL
Paul Skenes: 3.9 ERA vs 2.93 xERA
Skenes is already good at 3.9, and a 2.93 expected mark says the underlying performance has been even better than that. Nothing here says regression — if anything, more is still owed to him walking into Milwaukee tomorrow.
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ CIN
Tyler Soderstrom
Pickup vs Brady Singer (4.97 xERA) — .795 OPS, bats 3rd.
TOMORROWPIT @ MIL
Paul Skenes: 3.9 ERA vs 2.93 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs MIL. A 3.9 ERA against a 2.93 expected ERA (0.97 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .230 vs .209 expected.
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ KC
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 12%
Ryan Jeffers has thrown out just 5 of 41 runners all season, and Kansas City has already stolen 87 bags on the year. Everything about this matchup says the Royals keep running, early and often.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
BALLPARKSTL @ NYY
Ryan Weathers's ERA jumps to 4.50 at Yankee Stadium
Weathers is a full run worse at Yankee Stadium than anywhere else he's pitched, and that's across a real sample — a dozen games there. Worth knowing walking into tonight's game in that park against St. Louis.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
TOMORROWCHW @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.93 ERA vs 3.83 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHW. A 2.93 ERA against a 3.83 expected ERA (0.9 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .242 vs .255 expected.
REGRESSIONSF @ TEX
San Francisco Giants are 10-19 in one-run games (.345 win%)
San Francisco's 10-19 in one-run games, a .345 mark that's about as extreme as these splits get. That usually says more about luck than talent, and it tends to correct.
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
Nineteen and ten in one-run games, a .655 mark, sits on the high side of what tends to hold up — records like that in close games usually drift back toward .500. Worth keeping in mind if Philadelphia's overall record is doing a lot of the heavy lifting tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ BAL
Vaughn Grissom
Pickup vs Cade Povich (5.34 xERA) — .735 OPS, bats 4th.
TOMORROWCHW @ BOS
Sonny Gray: 2.93 ERA vs 3.82 xERA
Gray's a little ahead of his expected number, but under a run's worth of gap with clean contact numbers underneath it is normal variance, not a warning sign. The process still looks strong walking into Chicago tomorrow.
FIRST INNINGTOR @ HOU
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Toronto hasn't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games — a lineup that needs time to get going. Yesavage has been nails early himself at .183 against, and the first-inning under carries real weight tonight.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BULLPENNYM @ CLE
New York Mets pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nobody in the Mets' pen has pitched on back-to-back days in this stretch, so there's no fatigue story here at all. Curry soaked up the bulk innings, Raley and Weaver are about as rested as it gets, and whoever starts tonight against Cleveland has a full bullpen behind him.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/10
Nick Mears
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
FANTASY PICKUPSSTL @ NYY
Hunter Dobbins
Streamer vs NYY — 3.71 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.34 WHIP.
FIRST INNINGMIN @ KC
KC have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Kansas City's first innings have gone quiet, just one run in their last ten games. Ryan's own first-inning average against, .207, backs that up even though his ERA in the split isn't as sharp — six homers allowed keeping that number up.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGSTL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
The Yankees have scored a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, but Weathers himself has been the opposite of stingy early — a 6.00 ERA and .315 against, with five homers allowed in the first inning alone. Two signals pulling in opposite directions in the same game.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

L
Blue Jays ML +128
MLB · 2-7
W
Orioles ML -150
MLB · 1-3
W
Rangers ML -187
MLB · 4-5
L
Colorado Rockies ML +159
MLB · 9-7
L
Nationals +1.5 +119
MLB · 0-5
W
Reds ML -129
MLB · 4-5
L
Diamondbacks ML -115
MLB · 9-4
L
Cardinals +1.5 -127
MLB · 0-2
L
Guardians ML -128
MLB · 6-2
L
White Sox ML +137
MLB · 2-14
W
Detroit Tigers ML +111
MLB · 8-0
L
Pittsburgh Pirates ML +132
MLB · 2-4
W
Braves ML -146
MLB · 2-4
L
Dodgers ML -186
MLB · 1-5
L
Minnesota Twins ML -140
MLB · 2-8

Props

L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Brice Turang · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Carson Palmquist · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 1
W
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 2
L
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Eduardo Rodriguez · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 17
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Gabriel Hughes · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 5
L
Grant Holmes · under
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 5
L
Gunnar Henderson · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Hunter Dobbins · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 4
L
Jackson Holliday · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Jesus Luzardo · under
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
JJ Bleday · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Joc Pederson · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Joey Cantillo · under
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 15
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 1
L
Lawrence Butler · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Logan Henderson · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 8
L
MacKenzie Gore · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 18
L
Matt Olson · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mickey Moniak · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 1
L
Nick Gonzales · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
Patrick Sandoval · under
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 15
L
Pete Alonso · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Pete Alonso · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Randy Vasquez · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Rhys Hoskins · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Royce Lewis · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 4
L
Ryan Weathers · under
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 18
L
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 1
W
Salvador Perez · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 2
L
Seiya Suzuki · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 0
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Spencer Jones · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Steven Kwan · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Tarik Skubal · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 6
L
Trea Turner · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Trey Yesavage · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 0
W
Troy Melton · under
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Tyler Stephenson · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Willi Castro · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 4
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 1