Dodgers at Cubs
O/U 9 · RL Dodgers -1.5
Dodgers ML-186
CONF 70%
LLostFinal 1-5
The read
Wrigley on a partly cloudy August night, the wind drifting out to left, and the best left-handed pitcher in the game walks out of a visitor's dugout he's never used before. Tarik Skubal, four days a Dodger, making his first career start on the North Side. Los Angeles has dropped four in a row and got beat up in the opener. Chicago just loaded up at the trade deadline and the park will be packed. And the price on the road favorite actually got cheaper between this morning and first pitch. That's my kind of spot.
I'm not paying for the Dodgers' recent record here — I'm paying for the arm. Skubal throws hard and has a changeup hitters swing right through about half the time they go after it, and this season right-handed hitters have had a harder time with him, not an easier one. Chicago's lineup is loaded with righties tonight because that's the automatic move against a lefty, and I think it's the wrong move against this particular lefty. Meanwhile, Javier Assad's run prevention looks better than the pitching under the hood — hitters square him up hard often enough that it tends to catch up with you, his main sinker is a pitch nobody misses even though he leans on it constantly, and left-handed hitters have taken him deep an awful lot in limited chances. The Dodgers are sending Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and a switch-hitter at him. Freeman's been red hot for two weeks. Ohtani has done real damage on sinkers all year. Assad hasn't been going deep into games lately, and the Cubs bullpen behind him is shakier than the standings make it look.
The concerns are real: a new catcher who's never caught him, a ballpark he's never worked in, and a Chicago club playing loose and free. That's exactly why the price came down — the market charged him for debut nerves, and handed me a better ticket on the team I already wanted. Losing streaks end. They end fastest when you hand the ball to your best pitcher and the other guy has to grind through five innings against a lineup built to hurt him. Dodgers on the moneyline.
The full analysis
Wrigley under a partly cloudy August night, wind drifting out to left, and the best left-handed pitcher in baseball walks out of a visitor's dugout he's never used before. Tarik Skubal, four days a Dodger, first career start on the North Side. Los Angeles has lost four straight and got punched in the mouth 10-5 in the opener. Chicago is rolling off a deadline haul and a full ballpark. And the price on the road favorite got *shorter* between this morning and first pitch. That's where I live.
I'm not paying for the Dodgers' record here — I'm paying for the arm. Skubal is 96-and-change with a changeup hitters swing through half the time they offer at it, and his season splits say right-handed bats have gotten the worst of him, not the best. Chicago's card is stacked with righties tonight because that's the reflex against a lefty, and I think the reflex is the wrong read on this particular lefty. On the other side, Javier Assad's ERA is prettier than the pitching underneath it — hard contact at a rate that catches up with you, a sinker he throws four out of every ten pitches that nobody misses, and a track record against left-handed bats that includes nine home runs in a small pile of at-bats. The Dodgers are running Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and a switch-hitter at him. Freeman's been scalding for two weeks. Ohtani has done real damage on sinkers all year. Assad's last six times out he averaged barely five innings, and the Cubs bullpen behind him is thinner than the standings suggest.
Yes, the friction is real: new catcher who has never caught him, a ballpark he's never worked, and a Chicago club playing with house money. That's exactly why the number came back from -205 to -186 — the market priced the debut jitters, and it handed me a better ticket on the side I already wanted. Four-game skids end. They end fastest when you hand the ball to an ace and the other guy has to survive five innings against a lineup built to hurt him. Dodgers, moneyline, -186.
Props on this game
4Shohei OhtaniOVER 2.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-106
LActual 1
Ohtani is running the hottest stretch on either roster — 11 hits in his last 22 at-bats with two homers mixed in, and he's slotted into the leadoff spot tonight instead of his usual spot in the order, which means more trips to the plate, not fewer. Assad has handled right-handers fine this year, but lefties are a different problem for him: nine home runs allowed in barely 130 at-bats, a platoon split wide enough to matter. Ohtani hits left-handed. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs isn't a heavy ask from a bat seeing extra pitches at the top of the order against a pitcher with a real, demonstrated issue against hitters standing on that side of the plate.
Tarik SkubalOVER 7.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+118
LActual 6
First start in a Dodgers uniform, but nothing about how he's pitching suggests an adjustment period. Twenty-seven strikeouts across his last three outings, whiff rates sitting in the 35-45% range for most of that stretch, and a changeup that's missed bats at a 52% clip on the year. The Cubs strike out more as a team than the Dodgers do, and Wrigley doesn't change what a mid-90s fastball and a low-80s curve do when they're locating like this. Eight strikeouts has been a quiet night for him lately, not a stretch.
Shohei OhtaniOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+215
LActual 0
Ohtani is in the lineup tonight, batting leadoff at DH, so whatever's been said about the knee and the arm this week hasn't kept him off the field in Chicago. He's been the hottest hitter in the sport over the last week — eleven hits in twenty-two at-bats, two home runs, an OPS near 1.500 — and that stretch is walking into a matchup built for it.
Javier Assad throws his sinker more than four times in every ten pitches, and the sinker is the one pitch Ohtani has punished all season: a .434 average and an .849 slugging mark against it. He's also got fourteen home runs against right-handed pitching this year.
Assad's 3.75 ERA is also running well ahead of the quality of contact he's allowing — his expected mark sits close to a full run higher — which tells me hitters have been squaring him up more than the scoreboard shows. I want the hottest bat in the league catching up to that tonight.
Seiya SuzukiOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+500
LActual 0
Suzuki already got to this Dodgers pitching staff last night with a two-run homer, and tonight's matchup sets up even better for him. He's a .991 OPS hitter against left-handed pitching this season with seven home runs in limited at-bats, and tonight he draws a lefty in Tarik Skubal, who's making his first start in a Dodgers uniform after being traded over from Detroit. Skubal leans on his four-seamer and sinker for more than half his pitches, and those are exactly the two pitches Suzuki has handled best all year — he's hitting .379 against the sinker specifically. He's eight-for-twenty-two over the last week with a homer and five RBI, and the wind blowing out to left field at Wrigley tonight isn't going to help anyone trying to keep him in the yard.
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