Daily archive

2026-08-05

The stored Gary board for Wed, Aug 5. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB2:10 PM

Blue Jays @ Astros

Getaway day in Houston, roof closed, early afternoon start, and the Astros have a division lead to protect against a team that spent last week taking itself apart. Toronto sold at the deadline — their ace gone, their outfielder shipped to this very dugout, their late-inning arm gone too — and what's left shows up for a day game without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., scratched this morning after his hamstring tightened running out a grounder last night. That's their best bat missing from a lineup that was already hurting. I'm laying the run and a half. The pitching is where this tilts. Jameson Taillon was cut loose by the Cubs a week and a half ago, traded here for pocket change, and now makes his first start for Toronto on the road against a lineup that's been scoring in bunches for two weeks. His last three times out, he barely got through nine innings total and gave up a dozen runs. His cutter is getting crushed — not a slump anymore, it's on the scouting report, and hitters are squaring him up at an alarming rate. Now stick that in a ballpark with a short porch in left, in front of Jeremy Peña, who's been on a tear with a pile of homers lately, and Yainer Díaz, who's been just as hot this week. Yordan Alvarez mashes right-handed pitching and is even better at home. Hunter Brown answers with a mid-90s fastball, hardly lets anybody square him up, and has essentially shut Toronto down every time he's faced them. One guy misses bats. The other is a guy nobody wanted ten days ago. The Toronto bats are why I'm fine with the spread instead of just the moneyline. Nathan Lukes, Josh Smith, and Ernie Clement are all deep in ugly cold streaks. Jesús Sánchez can't hit lefties and has nobody behind him to protect him. That's four of the nine spots that can't hurt you, and now no Guerrero to worry about either. Toronto barely scratched out runs over their last ten games with everybody healthy; today they're missing their best hitter and starting a guy who can't finish five innings. Their bullpen already burned a young arm for a huge pitch count yesterday cleaning up another short start, so the help behind Taillon is thin and worn out. This is a blowout waiting to happen — Houston by three or more. Astros minus a run and a half.

Astros -1.5-106

CONF

72%

MLB2:20 PM

Dodgers @ Cubs

It's Wrigley in early August, a little after one o'clock, and the Cubs can finish off a sweep. The Dodgers have dropped five in a row, lost by four last night while the crowd spent the whole game chanting at their new ace, and now they've got the last game before flying out to Arizona. Chicago's been playing good ball lately, and the ballpark can feel it. What I like here is the Cubs' starter and who he's facing. Shota Imanaga has barely given up a run over his last few outings, and his splitter is the best pitch anybody's throwing today — he goes to it constantly, hitters swing through it a ton, and when they do make contact it doesn't hurt him. The Dodgers are running out six lefty or switch-hitting bats: Ohtani, Freeman, Edman, Tucker, Muncy, Feduccia. Imanaga has made left-handed hitters look bad all year. That's not a small edge, that's the whole ballgame. Eric Lauer is the lesser arm and exactly the wrong guy for this ballpark. Hitters square him up hard, he lives up in the air instead of on the ground, and right-handed hitters have already taken him deep sixteen times — and Chicago is sending six righties at him with Suzuki, Hoerner and Crow-Armstrong all locked in. Behind him is a bullpen that burned four arms yesterday and watched Vesia and Díaz cough up runs in both games of this series, while the Cubs' relievers are fresh and haven't been leaned on hard. Los Angeles has the better roster and they'll snap out of this at some point, but they're barely scoring during this skid with Betts, Edman and Muncy all ice cold, and at a basically even price I'm not paying extra for the name on the jersey. **Cubs moneyline, -108.**

Cubs ML-108

CONF

62%

MLB2:35 PM

Giants @ Rangers

It's a getaway afternoon in Arlington with the roof shut, comfortable and completely still, so nobody gets to blame the wind for anything today. Texas finally ended a long losing run Tuesday night on a walk-off from Ezequiel Duran, and San Francisco is closing out a seven-game road trip with a roster that got picked apart at the trade deadline. Both teams are handing the ball to a starter nobody can count on. Carson Whisenhunt is the shakier of the two. The rookie lefty leans on a fastball that hitters are crushing, and right-handed batters have gone deep on him several times in a small sample while doing plenty of damage overall. His changeup is legitimately nasty — hitters swing through it constantly — but one great pitch can't cover for a fastball that gets hit like that, and he's been getting pulled earlier with every start. Texas is running out a lineup stacked with righties this afternoon. Duran is as hot as anyone in this series after driving in four runs last night, and he's been raking for two weeks straight, day games included. Even the guys in a slump get the matchup edge here. Cody Bradford is his own mystery — first big-league start since late 2024, a rebuilt elbow, and a pitch count that won't get him deep — so this turns into a bullpen game by the fourth inning. That's exactly where I want to be. Bradford throws lefty against a San Francisco lineup that bats Devers fourth despite his struggles against lefties, then fills the bottom with Kennedy, McCray, Leonard and Cavanaugh, none of whom have done anything lately. Once the starters are out, Texas goes to Silseth, Ahlstrom, Gray and Latz; the Giants go to arms that have pitched three days in a row at the end of a long trip. Add in the home crowd and a strong record in close, one-run games, and I'm fine laying the price. Rangers to win, straight up.

Rangers ML-147

CONF

61%

MLB3:10 PM

Rays @ Rockies

Getaway day in the mountains, early afternoon start with the sun out. Tampa Bay has already won the first two games here, both of them high-scoring slugfests, and Colorado gets one last shot before the team buses head to St. Louis. The Rockies give the ball to Tomoyuki Sugano, the Rays go with Nick Martinez. Here's what I see. Sugano's run-prevention numbers look mediocre, but the way hitters are squaring him up tells a nastier story — a ton of loud, hard contact, and a fastball and sinker that don't have the giddy-up to get past anybody. He's given up a home run in almost every start lately, and now he walks into a lineup that just hung a mountain of runs on this pitching staff in two days, with Aranda, Caminero and Hicks all looking like they can't wait to hit. Colorado is also resting Hunter Goodman and Willi Castro today — the only two guys who really hurt Tampa in this series — and dropping Edouard Julien, who's been ice cold at the plate, into the middle of the order. That's a lineup that's giving away outs. Martinez isn't the type to blow anybody away, and the thin air here will flatten out his changeup, which is the pitch that makes everything else work. I've accounted for that. But he's barely walked anyone over his last three outings, and he doesn't need to be great — he just needs to get through five or six, and then the bullpen takes over with Cleavinger, Kelly, Wells and Baker, the same group that shut the door for most of a game on Tuesday without ever looking stressed. Colorado's answer is Jordan Romano and whatever arms are left after they emptied the bullpen last night. I backed the Rockies the last two nights as underdogs and watched the same ending both times; the discipline is to stop paying for the story and take the better team at a fair price. I'm staying away from the spread — this ballpark is no place to give away runs — so I'm taking Tampa Bay straight up to win, and I expect them to leave Denver with a sweep.

Tampa Bay Rays ML-153

CONF

64%

MLB6:35 PM

Angels @ Orioles

Two nights ago this Baltimore team got torn apart. Their catcher went to Boston, an outfielder to Seattle, a starting pitcher to Minnesota — and then they walked out and beat these Angels anyway, with a kid playing his first big-league game in left field and a starter who hadn't thrown a big-league pitch since early May. Their manager keeps calling it a fifty-game sprint. Call it whatever you want. They're a game and a half out of a playoff spot and they're playing like a team that heard him. The Angels got torn apart too, but they haven't answered the same way. They've barely been scoring — under three runs a night for two weeks, and even less than that over the last five. Trout hasn't gone deep in two weeks. Neto has basically stopped making contact, swinging through everything and chasing pitches out of the zone. Grissom is chasing even more. Now they walk into Camden Yards against Trevor Rogers, who's been a completely different pitcher since June — dominant two months running, almost no free passes over his last three outings, and two offspeed pitches he can throw for strikes whenever he feels like it. Baltimore's lineup leans right-handed and righties are the ones who give Rogers trouble, so I'm not calling him untouchable. I'm saying the team that has to figure him out can't figure anybody out right now. Reid Detmers is the real problem with this pick, and I won't pretend he isn't. He's throwing the best ball of his year — piling up strikeouts, almost no walks over his last three, and a breaking ball hitters keep missing. He'll be out there into the sixth. But his team has lost five of his last six starts because nobody scores for him, and that didn't get better when the trade deadline stripped this roster down further. Baltimore's weak spot is the bullpen: Garcia and Kittredge have both worked the last two days, and Kittredge coughed up a run last night. If this is a one-run game in the eighth, that's where it can flip. I'd still rather take the home team, with Alonso hitting the ball hard, O'Neill and Mayo both swinging it, and a lineup that put runs on the board in a game the Angels lost with their best available pitcher going. **Orioles to win, straight up.**

Orioles ML-134

CONF

62%

MLB6:40 PM

Athletics @ Reds

It's eighty-seven degrees by the river tonight with a light breeze blowing across the field, and a team that hasn't won a game in over a week is walking into the easiest place to hit in the league. Oakland's dropped six straight and just got swept at home by Detroit, including one afternoon where they got shut out badly enough that it looked like they'd already given up. Cincinnati won the opener Tuesday when a couple of pitches got away from the Oakland catcher in the eighth, and now they get game two against that same shaky bullpen. Start with lefty-righty. Terry Francona is putting eight right-handed hitters in the lineup against Jacob Lopez, and righties have absolutely feasted on him all year — that's where every bit of the damage against him comes from. The underlying numbers say he's pitched better than his results, I won't argue that, but he walks too many guys and he never gets deep into games — his last six starts have all ended somewhere in the fourth, fifth or sixth at the latest, and a couple didn't even get that far. Call it five innings and gone, which dumps the rest of the game on a bullpen where the only two arms Mark Kotsay actually trusts, Hogan Harris and Elvis Alvarado, have both pitched two days in a row. Harris is the guy whose wild pitches lost Tuesday's game. Cincinnati's relievers, meanwhile, each threw a quiet inning last night and everybody's fresh. Rhett Lowder's overall season numbers don't look good and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. But he's been a completely different pitcher at home than on the road, and his worst outing of the year came in the thin air of Colorado — take that one away and his last two starts have been excellent. The lineup facing him is missing four of its best bats in Brent Rooker, Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Zack Gelof, and it's barely scoring three runs a night while losing nine of its last ten. At this price I need to win a little more than six times out of ten to profit, and a righty-heavy lineup against the wrong-handed starter, a short outing, and a gassed bullpen in a ballpark that makes you pay for mistakes gets me there with room to spare. Reds to win.

Reds ML-161

CONF

64%

MLB6:40 PM

Mets @ Guardians

Wednesday night in Cleveland, first pitch a little before seven, and the Guardians come to the park needing to even up the series against a team that really shouldn't be beating them. The Mets have lost a lot more than they've won, sold off pieces at the trade deadline, and are running out a fill-in manager and a lineup full of guys most fans wouldn't recognize. Cleveland has won about as often as they've lost and is still technically in the race. And the betting market says this game is a coin flip. That got my attention. What got it more is who's pitching. Christian Scott is the best arm in the building tonight, and not a single Cleveland hitter has ever faced him. Not one at-bat, top to bottom of the order. He misses bats at a serious rate with a heavy fastball and a breaking ball hitters flail at constantly, and he's been especially tough on lefty bats — which matters, because Cleveland's card tonight is stacked with left-handed hitters in Kwan, DeLauter, Lowe, Bazzana and Halpin, plus three switch-hitters at the bottom. That group has barely scratched out runs for two weeks. Tonight they're without Jose Ramirez again, Gabriel Arias was cut loose this morning, and Angel Genao just got called up from the minors to hit last and play third. That's a lineup asked to solve a live arm it's never seen, on a night it can least afford to be short-handed. Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee's shiny run prevention number is hiding a lot: he doesn't strike many out, hitters barely swing and miss against him, they've been squaring him up hard all summer, and left-handed bats have taken him deep over and over. The Mets will send Ewing, Benge, Young and Baty up from that side, and they lift the ball as well as anyone. I won't pretend the late innings don't worry me. Scott's been on a short leash all year coming back from elbow surgery — four to six innings and he's done — and the Mets shipped out half their relief help a few days ago. Whatever lead he hands over gets carried by Lavender, Duarte, Senga in his brand-new one-inning job, and a closer who walks too many guys. Cleveland's relief group is deeper, Cade Smith is the best reliever who'll pitch tonight, and the home team gets the last swing. That's a real risk, and it's why I'm not betting this bigger. But you have to actually score to use any of that, and I don't see where Cleveland's runs come from. Give me the better starter, the short-handed opponent, and a little extra payout on the side I already wanted. **Mets moneyline, +101.**

Mets ML+101

CONF

61%

MLB6:40 PM

Nationals @ Phillies

It's a Wednesday night in Philadelphia with rain in the air, and the Nationals roll in having lost seven straight, into a park where they've won just once all season. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series easily and have won four in a row. Washington gave up on the season at the trade deadline, just lost their best hitter to a side injury a couple days ago, and hasn't put up much of anything on the scoreboard for a week. I'm not laying the extra run because I trust the Phillies' young starter — his run prevention has been rough and they're going to pull him early. I'm laying it because I don't think Washington's lineup can string together the couple of good innings it takes to stay in a game. The bottom of their order is three guys who barely hit the ball hard at all. Their best bat is hurt, another good one got traded to New York, and the few hitters left are being asked to carry everything. Their starter, meanwhile, is throwing a sinker that hitters keep crushing and a cutter nobody has swung through all year — against a Phillies group that has already hit him hard, homers included, in a park with the wind blowing out. The other piece is what happens once the starters are gone. Philadelphia's young arm exits early and hands it to a bullpen that basically got the day off yesterday — their whole late-inning crew is fresh and can slam the door. Washington just cut loose the guy who ate all their innings last night and is piecing the rest together. Add another quality bat to a lineup that already has real thump in the middle, and for this to stay a one-run game Washington has to find runs they simply haven't found lately. Give me the Phillies laying the extra run, and I'll take the better price that comes with it.

Phillies -1.5+108

CONF

62%

MLB7:05 PM

Cardinals @ Yankees

Rubber game in the Bronx tonight, first pitch just after seven, warm out with the wind blowing across the field. Both teams have already shown each other exactly who they are. Monday the Cardinals put up a crooked number and Alec Burleson hit three balls into the right-field seats. Tuesday they didn't score at all, and a twenty-one-year-old kid named Lombard, barely a week into the big leagues, homered to win it for New York. One of those two games is the real story. I think we find out which one tonight. Let me be honest about the part that worries me: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher here. He's the guy St. Louis has counted on all season, hitters haven't done much against him, and he's kept the damage small over his last three starts throwing hard with a sinker and a slider that gets swings and misses. But he has one weak spot, and it's exactly the wrong one in this ballpark — left-handed hitters have done real damage against him, and the Yankees are running out a lineup full of them in a stadium with that short porch in right. Will Warren has the same problem, only worse — lefties have hit him hard and taken him deep plenty. The difference is who's batting against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee injury this afternoon, already traded Lars Nootbaar away at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks near the bottom of the order. Throw out Monday's outburst and this offense has barely scored at all over its last ten games, including that goose egg last night. So I keep landing on the late innings. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three haven't given up a run all series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who got hammered Monday while recording a single out, George Soriano, who's already coughed up two leads in a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them because both got traded away. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it might not even earn, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, after losing most of its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I just don't think he gets to keep it. I'm on the Yankees to win outright — you're laying a bit extra and I won't pretend it's a bargain. It's just the right side of a one-run game.

Yankees ML-158

CONF

58%

MLB7:10 PM

White Sox @ Red Sox

Wednesday night at Fenway, warm out, and the wind is blowing straight toward the bleachers. Boston has won six straight, just took every game of a series in Los Angeles for the first time in fifteen years, and opened this one by dropping fourteen runs on Chicago with four more balls into the seats. The White Sox come in leading their division with some real punch in the middle of their lineup and a starter who has been pitching the best ball of his life all summer. That's the story here — a good arm walking into a bad room. Sean Burke earned everything he got in July. He barely gave up runs, he piled up strikeouts without walking anybody, and his curveball has been making hitters look silly. But he gets a lot of fly balls, his sinker has been getting hit hard all year, and lefty hitters have already taken him deep plenty of times. Boston's whole power surge is coming from that side of the plate — Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida — and this team has been one of the best home run clubs in baseball since the All-Star break. Sonny Gray isn't as good as his shiny win-loss record suggests. He's been hit around his last three times out, and the underlying stuff says he's been lucky. He doesn't need to be an ace tonight. He needs his breaking pitches, and that's exactly what works against a Chicago lineup where most of the regulars are ice cold over the past week and the big bats are chasing pitches out of the zone. Then the starters leave, and that's where the argument ends for me. Boston turns it over to Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock and Erik Miller — a bullpen that's barely allowed a run over the last week and is fresh after Brayan Bello soaked up three innings of a blowout. Chicago burned Erick Fedde on a long mop-up outing yesterday and traded Seranthony Domínguez away at the deadline. Boston hasn't lost to this team all year and has outscored them by a mile doing it. At this price I'm getting a little value on the hottest team in baseball, and I'll take it. Red Sox moneyline.

Red Sox ML-140

CONF

63%

MLB7:15 PM

Marlins @ Braves

Wednesday night in Atlanta, game two of three, and the Braves show up hot — six straight wins and a big run since the All-Star break. The Marlins are the fun story of the summer, a team that snapped a brutal twelve-game skid and then immediately won six of seven to put themselves back in the playoff chase. They ran into Grant Holmes on Tuesday and lost. Tonight they hand the ball to Eury Pérez, who throws real gas and has looked like his best self since June, against Bryce Elder. So let's be honest about it: Miami has the better arm going, and I'm still laying the price on the home team. The reason is the matchups inside the game. Elder is basically two different pitchers depending on which side of the plate you stand on — lefties barely touch him, righties hammer him. And Miami's lineup tonight is loaded with lefties: Stowers, Conine, Caissie, Marsee and Mack all swing from that side, with Edwards switch-hitting. The right-handed bats who could actually hurt Elder are Otto Lopez, Heriberto Hernández — who has been ice cold at the plate lately — and Javier Sanoja. That's the soft underbelly of a lineup that already lost Liam Hicks at the deadline. Elder doesn't need to be great for six innings; he needs to be great against the three or four guys capable of doing damage, and there just aren't many tonight. Then there's what happens once Pérez leaves. His manager has kept him on a strict pitch limit all season — they pulled him from a perfect game after seven against the Athletics, which tells you everything — so around the sixth this turns into a bullpen game for Miami, and that bullpen isn't what it was a week ago. Lake Bachar got traded Monday. John King and Victor Vodnik each coughed up a run in the opener, and Vodnik's wild pitch was the one that cracked the game open. Vodnik is the most likely arm for the eighth, he's been getting hit hard, and he walks far too many guys. He'd be walking into Riley, Acuña and Murphy — the righty side of Atlanta's order, which is also the side Pérez has given up most of his home runs to. Atlanta's own pen has been worked hard too, with Dodd, Lee and Iglesias all pitching the last two game days, and Iglesias got tagged for two in the ninth Tuesday. That's the real hole in this ticket and I won't pretend otherwise. But when both sides are handing the ball to tired relievers, I'll take the group with the track record. Braves to win, and I'm laying a small premium to get them.

Braves ML-123

CONF

63%

MLB7:30 PM

Pirates @ Brewers

It's Wednesday night in Milwaukee with the roof closed, seventy-two degrees and no breeze — the kind of night where the ball goes exactly where it's hit and nothing weird happens. The teams have split the first two games, Milwaukee just became the first club in baseball to reach seventy wins, and Pittsburgh is on the seventh game of an eight-game trip. But this one comes down to the two guys on the mound: Paul Skenes versus a lefty who hasn't started a game in almost a month. That's the whole thing. Skenes has been getting knocked around lately, and the price tells you the betting world noticed — there's no other way an arm this good comes back as an underdog. But the damage was two bad road nights where balls flew out of the park, not a steady decline. The stuff is all still there: same big velocity, hitters still missing a ton of swings against him, and the underlying numbers say he's pitched better than his run total shows. Here's the part I care about most tonight — this Milwaukee lineup has been helpless against him his whole career, and three weeks ago he gave them five-plus innings and barely gave anything up. They're also picking a bad week to see him. They've barely scored over their last five games, Yelich is in a deep slump, Mitchell is slumping worse and swinging through nearly half of what he chases, and Contreras hasn't knocked in a run in two weeks. On the other side, Kyle Harrison is back from a forearm problem with one short minor league tune-up under his belt. Even healthy he rarely gets through five innings — tonight he's on a short rope, which means Milwaukee's relievers have to cover most of the game, and they just sent two arms down and don't get their new guy until tomorrow. Pittsburgh rebuilt its whole bullpen a week and a half ago, and every one of those arms — Weaver, Doval, Yates, Soto, Montgomery — is fresh, with nobody pitching two days in a row. The Pirates line up right-handed hitters against a lefty who's already given up a bunch of home runs to that side, in a ballpark that tilts slightly toward hitters with no wind to hold anything in. I'm not going to pretend the long trip and Pittsburgh's own cold stretch don't matter — but they've already beaten this club six times in eight tries this year, and I'll take the better starter and the better bullpen as underdogs every single time. **The play: Pirates moneyline +116.**

Pirates ML+116

CONF

71%

MLB7:40 PM

Twins @ Royals

Wednesday night in Kansas City, with the flag they raised for Salvador Perez still hanging out in right field, and a team that finally looked like its old self for a full game on Tuesday. Bobby Witt Jr. came back from the injured list and knocked out three hits. Now the Royals get a Twins team deep into a long road trip, and Minnesota is handing the ball to a guy making his very first start for them. Dean Kremer is why I'm on this game. Left-handed hitters have crushed him all year, and Kansas City is running out a lineup stacked with lefties — Jensen, Caglianone, Massey, Rave and Isbel, plus Isaac Collins turning around to that side. His sinker is the pitch that's gotten hit the hardest, and his last three outings have been a mess, more than a run an inning handed over. On top of that, everything about tonight is brand new for him: new team, new catcher, a different set of notes on the hitters, and he's coming back from a leg injury that wiped out most of the middle of his season. That's a lot to sort out against a lineup built to go after exactly what he's been giving up. Noah Cameron has the opposite story with this bunch. He's faced Minnesota five times in his career and shut them down every way you can measure it, including six days ago when he threw eight innings and gave up one hit. Most of the Twins bats he'll see are ice cold right now — Austin Martin, Victor Caratini, Brooks Lee, Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler have all been struggling this past week, with Royce Lewis the only real fight in there. The wind is blowing in from center at a park that already makes runs hard to come by. I know how this can go sideways: Cameron has been better on the road than at home, and the Kansas City bullpen has been giving up runs late, so a lead here isn't one you can relax on. But with the price basically even money, I'll take the club with the better arm on the mound, home field, and the hotter bats. **Royals ML -108.**

Royals ML-108

CONF

62%

MLB9:40 PM

Tigers @ Mariners

Nine-forty at night out in Seattle, second game of a three-game set, and Detroit came in here last night and hung eight on them without Seattle ever having an answer. The Tigers haven't lost since the front office traded away their best starting pitcher, which is the kind of move that either splits a clubhouse apart or pulls it together, and this one clearly got pulled together. Seattle's in the middle of a homestand with a lineup they've had to shuffle twice in a week, and they keep putting up a measly three runs a night. The pitching matchup tilts the same direction on both sides. Bryan Woo gets hurt by left-handed hitters — most of the home runs against him this year have come off lefty bats, and they hit him noticeably harder overall. Detroit sends five lefties up there, and four of them are as locked in as they've been all season: McGonigle, Keith, Clark and McKinstry. Woo's fastball is close to half of everything he throws, and it's the pitch getting punished. Drew Anderson has the opposite problem — he handles lefties fine but righties give him trouble, and Seattle's righties tonight are Arozarena plus a Julio Rodríguez and a Taylor Ward who have both been beating the ball into the ground for two weeks. Anderson's offspeed stuff is designed to get hitters swinging at balls out of the zone, and this lineup chases. He isn't going deep — he's only made two starts all year, never got out of the fifth in either, and he pitched out of the bullpen three days ago — but Detroit doesn't need him to. Their starter went seven last night, so they only had to use two relievers all game. Seattle's bullpen has been handing runs back all week, including one outing where Domínguez gave up four while barely recording an out. The argument against me is fair: this ballpark holds down scoring, the deeper numbers suggest Woo has pitched better than his results, and Detroit fattened up its run totals against a bad Athletics team. I've thought it through. It doesn't pull me off a team scoring seven a night against one scoring around three and a half without two of its regulars, and it definitely doesn't pull me off getting paid better than even money. The betting market is treating last night like a fluke. I think last night was the tell. Tigers to win, at plus one thirty-six.

Tigers ML+136

CONF

70%

MLB9:40 PM

Padres @ Diamondbacks

Wednesday night in Phoenix, roof closed to keep out the desert heat, and these two teams are basically tied in the race for the last playoff spot in their league. San Diego showed up hot, having won eight of their last nine, lost the opener here, then knocked around Arizona on Tuesday to even things up. Tonight Casey Mize pitches his first game in a Padres uniform against a rookie lefty who's barely pitched in the big leagues. I'm taking the Padres on the moneyline. The gap between these two starters isn't small, it's enormous. Mitch Bratt has walked way too many hitters in very few innings, and his main pitch — a fastball he throws almost half the time — gets crushed and barely misses a bat. He's left-handed, which usually helps against lefty hitters, but he's actually been worse against them, so Jackson Merrill, who's been scorching hot lately, and Jake Cronenworth get no break, and neither do the righties around them. Bratt has never once gotten through six innings. That dumps a big chunk of the game on an Arizona bullpen that's been getting lit up all week, just lost a reliever to a back injury, and hands the ninth to a closer who's been giving up runs at an alarming clip. Mize, meanwhile, has been excellent all year, his splitter makes hitters swing through it and chase out of the zone, and this lineup has never seen him before. Behind him: an elite closer with a pile of saves and a bullpen that's been solid over the same stretch Arizona's has been leaking. Here's why I'm not laying more or taking the run line: Mize hasn't pitched in a week and a half, and that's rust plus a brand new team, and in his last outing hitters weren't missing his pitches much. That's Arizona's one opening. James McCann is swinging a hot bat, Geraldo Perdomo has been reaching base constantly, and that ballpark turns mistakes into home runs no matter who's hitting. But the two lefty bats built to hurt Mize — Corbin Carroll and Lars Nootbaar — have both been ice cold the last couple weeks, and Mize has been brutal on lefties all season. Arizona is counting on the back of its lineup to win a game against the better pitcher, and that pitcher's team has been scoring plenty and giving up little over their last ten. Padres on the moneyline, and let the bullpens sort out the rest.

Padres ML-128

CONF

66%

Player props

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki against a left-hander is a different hitter than Suzuki against everybody else — a .991 OPS against lefties this season, and he's shown that form all month, fourteen hits in his last fifty at-bats with three home runs in that stretch. He's even better at home than on the road, which matters on a Wrigley afternoon.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-140

MLB · Dodgers @ Cubs

Nico Hoerner

Hoerner doesn't need to hit one out to have a good day, he just needs to keep doing what he's done for two weeks — eighteen hits in his last fifty-four at-bats, and he already went deep against this pitching staff last night. He's a contact-first hitter from the right side facing a left-hander who's allowed a .731 OPS and sixteen home runs to right-handed bats already this season, mostly off a fastball that gets barreled more than a big-league arm can afford. Getting Hoerner on base with a single in a game he's locked into like this one is close to a formality, and the price still pays close to even money for it.

OVER 0.5 Singles-135

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

Cody Bradford

Bradford hasn't thrown a big league pitch since September of 2024. The elbow reconstruction cost him all of last year, and a rehab setback pushed this return even further back than the original plan.

UNDER 13.5 Pitcher Outs-128

MLB · Giants @ Rangers

Carson Whisenhunt

Three of Whisenhunt's last four starts didn't reach this number, including his most recent, where he was out after three and a third having already allowed seven hits and six runs. The problem isn't matchup-specific bad luck — hitters are squaring him up at a rate well above league norm all season, and tonight he draws a Rangers lineup that's six right-handed bats deep against the exact pitch, his four-seamer, that righties have hit at a .500 clip against him this year. A pitcher who can't keep the ball off the barrel doesn't get stretched out by his manager, he gets pulled once the line starts filling up. Five and a third innings is a reasonable ask for a healthy, established arm — it hasn't been the norm for him lately.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-158

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Jameson Taillon

Taillon's Blue Jays debut comes nine days removed from getting designated for assignment by the Cubs, and the tape explains why: his last three starts have produced nine and a third innings, twelve earned runs, an 11.57 ERA. He hasn't reached fourteen outs in any of them — his longest was four and a third innings.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+148

MLB · Blue Jays @ Astros

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez hits .351 with a 1.161 OPS against right-handers this year, and Taillon throws right-handed with a fastball and cutter that have both been hit hard all season. At home, Alvarez is at .386 with nineteen homers; over his last two weeks he's at .370. He bats second in front of Altuve, Varsho, Trammell and Walker, so the RBI chances are there most nights, and this offense scores enough that the runs follow. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs at plus money is a below-average night for the best hitter in this game against a pitcher carrying an 11.57 ERA over his last three trips to the mound.

OVER 2.5 H+R+RBI+110

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Victor Mesa Jr.

Mesa Jr. is 1-for-18 over his last seven games and 4-for-29 over his last fifteen — a .138 average with nothing hit hard in that stretch.

UNDER 1.5 Hits-165

MLB · Rays @ Rockies

Nick Martinez

Martinez doesn't miss bats. Sixty-nine strikeouts in 123 innings this season is a 5.0 mark per nine, and his last six starts read 2, 5, 0, 1, 3, 3 — one outing above this number in six tries.

UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts-104

MLB HR · Rays @ Rockies

Mickey Moniak

Moniak's season splits point one direction and tonight sits right in it. Fifteen home runs and a 1.029 OPS at home against four home runs and a .690 OPS on the road.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+366

MLB · Angels @ Orioles

Trevor Rogers

Rogers has been a different pitcher since June — 2.05 ERA that month, 2.37 in July, and across his last three starts he's walked one batter total in 19.1 innings. He's allowed three earned runs or more exactly once in his last eight starts, and that one came in a 10-9 shootout at Detroit where Baltimore's whole bullpen got roughed up behind him, not just Rogers.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-165

MLB · Angels @ Orioles

Vaughn Grissom

Grissom's been the best hitter in this lineup not named Trout, and it isn't close — 13-for-46 with 10 RBI over his last fifteen games, and he picked up a double and an RBI in the series opener last night. He's right-handed, and Trevor Rogers has pitched like a different pitcher against righties than lefties all year: a .278 average and .761 OPS allowed to right-handed bats against .183 and .536 to lefties.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+109

MLB · Athletics @ Reds

Elly De La Cruz

De La Cruz has walked in eleven of his last fifteen games. That's not a small sample fluke, that's a switch-hitter seeing the ball well from both sides of the plate right now.

OVER 0.5 Walks-101

MLB · Athletics @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart has sixteen RBIs and four home runs over his last fifteen games — a legitimately hot bat — and he's driven in a run in ten of those fifteen. He hits second behind Elly De La Cruz, who's reaching base at a high clip right now, and he's facing a pitcher that right-handed hitters have torched for a .890 OPS and ten home runs across 201 at-bats this season.

OVER 0.5 RBI+129

MLB · Mets @ Guardians

Christian Scott

Christian Scott has punched out twenty hitters across his last fifteen and a third innings, better than a strikeout an inning, and his whiff rates over that stretch have sat in the mid-20s to low-30s on the fastball and sweeper both. He's cleared this number in six of his last eight starts.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+125

MLB · Mets @ Guardians

Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan doesn't need to solve anything about Christian Scott, he just needs to keep doing what he's done for two weeks — put the bat on the ball. He's hitting .391 over his last fifteen games and .500 over his last week, and the plate-discipline numbers behind that are exactly the profile you want against a swing-and-miss arm: a twelve percent whiff rate and a chase rate under a quarter of pitches out of the zone.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+150

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Jake Irvin

Irvin's last time out in Atlanta lasted five innings and cost him five earned runs on two home runs, and that's not an outlier — it's fourteen innings and seven earned runs across his last three starts total, on a pitcher who's still finding his rhythm after a shoulder issue kept him out for two-plus months. Tonight he's facing a Phillies lineup that has hit him at a .317 clip with four home runs in the at-bats they've logged against him, and his two most-used secondary pitches are the problem: the sinker is getting hit at a .519 expected weighted on-base average and a .319 average, and the cutter hasn't drawn a single swinging strike from anybody all season. Philadelphia is scoring 4.5 runs a game over its last ten and just added Luis Arraez to lengthen an order that already runs through Schwarber, Turner and Harper, in a ballpark playing hitter-friendly tonight with the wind blowing out to left. I think Irvin gives up three or more earned runs before this one's over.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-115

MLB · Nationals @ Phillies

Trea Turner

Turner is doing whatever he wants at the plate right now — 11 hits in his last 25 at-bats, two home runs, an OPS over 1.100, and three more hits already logged in this series. The pitcher across from him tonight is throwing a sinker that opponents are hitting at a .519 expected weighted on-base average and a .319 batting average, and a cutter that hasn't produced a single swing-and-miss all season. Irvin's last start ended with two homers and five runs allowed in Atlanta on a short pitch count. A hitter running this hot against pitches this hittable, in a park where the wind is blowing out to left tonight, gets to two total bases more often than not.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105

MLB HR · Mets @ Guardians

Francisco Lindor

Lindor's the best number on the board for me tonight. He's carrying real momentum into this one — three home runs and nine RBI over his last fifteen games, an OPS pushing .900 in that stretch, so this isn't a name I'm picking on reputation alone.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+404

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

CJ Abrams

Abrams has gone deep six times in his last fifteen games. That kind of stretch usually means the swing decisions and the contact quality are lining up, not just a couple of fly balls carrying out. He went quiet this past week, but power hitters do that between bursts — it doesn't erase what the month has looked like.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+319

MLB HR · Mets @ Guardians

Carson Benge

Carson Benge is swinging a hot bat right now, and he's already proven it in this exact building. He hit a ball 451 feet off this Guardians pitching staff on Tuesday night — the longest home run at Progressive Field all season — and he's carried that into a .346 average and a .909 OPS over his last week.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Bryce Harper

Look past the batting average and look at how hard Harper's been hitting the ball. His recent exit velocity is the best of anyone on this board, and the barrel rate backs it up — that's squared-up, line-drive contact, the kind that turns into homers more often than not. Three home runs in his last fifteen games actually undersells how well he's swinging it right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+280

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been the best bat in either dugout for two weeks running — a .308 average and better than an 1.100 OPS over his last fifteen games, three home runs, twelve driven in, and the underlying contact backs it up: two barrels and twelve hard-hit balls across his last nineteen balls in play, with a whiff rate sitting at a manageable 21 percent. He isn't chasing his way into this — a 28 percent chase rate is nothing alarming — he's finding pitches to drive.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+330

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Tyler O'Neill

O'Neill left the yard last night on a pinch-hit swing, and now he's in the lineup batting cleanup instead of coming off the bench late. That's the difference between getting one at-bat as a power threat and getting four or five.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+347

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Pete Alonso

Alonso is who he is, a hitter who's led the league in homers more than once, and I'm not going to talk myself out of a proven power bat just because he's the shortest price on this board. What I like beyond the name is how he's actually squaring the ball up right now: three barreled balls in his last nineteen in play is a real rate, not a fluke game. Two homers and five RBI over his last fifteen games says the underlying contact is translating into results, not just sitting there as a nice number. Detmers has been touchable by both sides of the plate all season, and Alonso doesn't need a platoon edge to do damage, he just needs a mistake, and he's seeing enough of the ball right now to find one.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+287

MLB HR · Athletics @ Reds

Sal Stewart

Stewart's carrying real thunder into this one — four home runs and 16 RBI over his last 15 days, a .938 OPS in the last week, and the exit-velo readings back it up: 91.7 mph average, two barrels on his last 15 balls in play. He's hitting second tonight, so he's getting full run through the lineup and more looks than a bottom-of-the-order bat gets.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+310

MLB HR · Mets @ Guardians

Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter's underlying swing has looked good beyond just the box score lately — his average exit velocity has been sitting near 94 miles an hour over his recent stretch, and his whiff and chase numbers say he's controlling the zone, not just running hot off mistakes. He's left-handed, and Christian Scott's actual split this year cuts against his overall polish — Scott's been considerably tougher on right-handed hitters than lefties, and most of the home runs he's allowed have come from the left side of the plate. DeLauter fits that profile, he's seeing the ball well right now, and I think that combination is worth the price.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+509

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Christian Encarnacion-Strand

The number that jumps off the page here is exit velocity, his recent balls in play are averaging over 96 miles an hour, the loudest contact of anybody in this lineup on either side tonight. His expected slugging is sitting well above his actual slugging this year, which tells me the results haven't fully caught up to how hard he's actually been hitting the ball. Two homers in his last twelve games is a solid recent rate on its own, and Detmers doesn't have a real platoon advantage against right-handed hitters to lean on as a save. At this price I'm betting the contact quality catches up to the results tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Blue Jays @ Astros

Jose Altuve

Jameson Taillon didn't land in Toronto because he was pitching well. The Cubs designated him for assignment nine days ago, and it's easy to see why: nine home runs allowed across his last six starts, an ERA that topped eleven in July and sits at 6.75 through his brief August. Both of his top two pitches are getting hit hard right now — a .490 expected wOBA against the four-seamer, .746 against the cutter — and a 15.7 percent barrel rate allowed is a real problem, not noise. He's a fly-ball pitcher walking into a park with a 315-foot porch in left built for right-handed pull power. Against right-handed hitters this year he's allowed 11 home runs in 146 at-bats, an extreme number for a starter, and in seven career appearances against this Houston lineup they've hit .277 off him.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Nationals @ Phillies

Daylen Lile

Lile has three home runs in his last seven games, and that's the number I care about more than his fifteen-day line — this is a hot week, not something I'm chasing after the fact. The contact quality behind it holds up too; he's getting the ball in the air and finding barrels, not just getting a couple of fly balls to carry.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Dodgers @ Cubs

Max Muncy

The flags at Wrigley are standing straight out to center this afternoon, and on a day like that this ballpark turns from a canyon into a coin box. Muncy's box score the last week won't turn heads — four hits in twenty at-bats, a batting average that reads like a slump. Strip that away and look at the contact underneath it: 94 miles an hour off the bat on average in his recent sample, the hardest number in this whole Dodgers lineup, and three home runs already sitting in his last fifteen games despite the cold stretch on paper.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300

MLB HR · Giants @ Rangers

Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo leads off, which puts him first in line for whatever Whisenhunt brings, and lately what he brings is a 92.8 mph fastball that hitters are batting .500 against with a .583 expected wOBA — a pitch he goes to more than a third of the time and the one his own arsenal gets the fewest swings and misses on. Nimmo's in the best stretch of his season right now, a .961 OPS over his last fifteen games with eight hits in his last twenty-five at-bats. He's not walking in cold, and the arm he's facing has a primary pitch that keeps getting hit hard by whoever's in the box.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+520

MLB HR · Angels @ Orioles

Jose Siri

This one is about the matchup more than a hot streak. Rogers has been two different pitchers depending on which side of the plate is hitting, right-handers are slugging well above his numbers against lefties, and nine of the home runs he's allowed this year have come from the right side. Siri's average hasn't been pretty lately, but a .436 slugging mark says the power is legitimate even when the hits aren't falling. He's an everyday piece in this lineup, he's on the favorable side of a real split, and I think the barrel shows up tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Alec Burleson

Burleson already showed you what he can do to this pitching staff — three balls into the right-field seats Monday night. I'm not chasing the home run number off one big game, but the total bases line is a different animal, because that outburst isn't sitting on nothing.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+118

MLB · Cardinals @ Yankees

Luis Garcia Jr.

New uniform, same swing. Garcia Jr. came over from Washington at the deadline and has been the best bat in this lineup since — seventeen hits in his last fifty-three at-bats, four home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, with a six percent whiff rate that tells you the contact is real and not just balls finding grass.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+126

MLB · White Sox @ Red Sox

Tristan Peters

Tristan Peters hasn't squared up a baseball in two weeks. Three hits in his last fifteen games, a .079 average, zero barreled balls across his last fourteen in play, and an average exit velocity sitting at 82.5 — that's a bat that isn't finding the sweet spot right now, not once in a while, essentially never. He's hitting seventh for a reason tonight.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+120

MLB · White Sox @ Red Sox

Sean Burke

Burke has struck out six or more hitters in seven of his last eight starts, and the stuff behind it is real — a fastball sitting just under 95 with a whiff rate near 29 percent, a knuckle curve that gets a swing and a miss a third of the time, a slider working at almost the same clip. Twenty-five strikeouts against four walks over his last three outings alone, and he's going deep enough to get there — six innings or more in five of his last six starts, so this isn't a bullpen-shortened look. Boston's lineup has been scorching the ball for two weeks, but scorching contact and making contact aren't the same skill, and this is a group doing its damage by driving the ball, not shortening up — that approach comes with swing-and-miss risk against three real strikeout pitches. I like Burke to get to six again.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-142

MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Eury Perez

Pérez has thrown too hard for too long this year for 5.5 to hold up at plus money. He's cleared this number in five of his last six starts, including a nine-strikeout night against Milwaukee and eight strikeouts across seven perfect innings against Oakland before his own club pulled him to manage the workload.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts+105

MLB · Marlins @ Braves

Bryce Elder

Elder has cleared 4.5 strikeouts in two of his last eight starts. That's not a small-sample blip, that's what he is right now — a pitcher living off contact management rather than swing-and-miss, with a whiff rate that's sat in the high teens and low twenties his last several times out.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts+108

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Garrett Mitchell

The recent numbers on Garrett Mitchell are about as cold as they get — two hits in his last twenty-one at-bats, a .095 average over the last week, and a whiff rate that's climbed to 42 percent over his last two weeks of games. He's gone hitless in eleven of his last fifteen games. Now he draws Paul Skenes, who's held left-handed hitters to a .220 average this season behind a fastball still sitting at 97 and secondaries drawing whiffs above 30 percent. Nothing about this matchup says tonight is where that turns around, and I'm not paying to find out.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+105

MLB · Pirates @ Brewers

Paul Skenes

Whatever's gone sideways for Paul Skenes this year, missing bats was never part of it. Set aside the 3.90 ERA and the rough July — his whiff rate over his last three starts reads 31, 41, 29 percent, and even in his two shortest outings of the last six weeks, both just four innings, he still struck out seven and five.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-148

MLB · Twins @ Royals

Salvador Perez

Perez is swinging a hot bat into a pitcher with nowhere to hide him — three home runs and six RBIs over his last fifteen games, one night after Kansas City raised the flag on his three-hundred-eighteenth career home run. Kremer's better platoon split is still an .842 OPS and five home runs allowed in fifty-eight at-bats to right-handed hitters, which is what Perez is, so there's no soft matchup being sold here, that's just where the search for a safe spot against this lineup runs out of road. He's already picked up extra bases in ten of his last fifteen games, and sliding over to first base tonight to cover for Pasquantino doesn't touch his bat. Plus money on two total bases from a hitter this hot, against a pitcher this hittable, is the kind of number I want on the card.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+125

MLB · Twins @ Royals

Dean Kremer

This is the same matchup that had me on Kansas City tonight, just running through his stat line instead of the scoreboard. Kremer's first start in a Twins uniform lands against a lineup built to attack exactly what's gone wrong with him all year: over his last three outings he's allowed eight hits, then eight again, then four, and the pitch getting hurt worst is his sinker, a .546 expected-weighted-on-base mark against it.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+102

MLB HR · White Sox @ Red Sox

Ceddanne Rafaela

Rafaela is the hottest hand in this lineup by a distance. He homered in three straight games against the Dodgers last weekend, including a two-homer night on August 1st, then came back to Fenway Tuesday and kept the line moving with a two-run double instead of a homer — four home runs in his last four games played, six home runs in his last fifteen.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · White Sox @ Red Sox

Wilyer Abreu

Abreu has a home run in each of his last two games played — one in the four-homer barrage at Dodger Stadium on August 2nd, when four different Red Sox left the yard in the same game, and two more, both solo shots, in Tuesday's rout of this same White Sox club. That matters against Sean Burke specifically.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Royce Lewis

Royce Lewis is the one Twins bat that has actually been locked in during a stretch where almost nothing else has gone right for this club — hitting .382 over his last nine games, and the underlying contact backs it up: a 97.6 mph average exit velocity and four barrels across his last nineteen balls in play, both near the top of either lineup card tonight. He's only turned that into two home runs over his last fifteen games, but the quality of contact says that number is behind where it should be. Noah Cameron takes the mound at the one park where his own numbers say he's most vulnerable this year — a 5.76 ERA at Kauffman against a 3.54 mark everywhere else — and a fastball sitting in the low-90s doesn't have much margin against a hitter squaring the ball up this hard right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Cardinals @ Yankees

Alec Burleson

Whenever this one gets underway tonight, Burleson steps in with the loudest recent history in the building — two nights ago, in this same ballpark, he put three balls into the right-field seats and drove in six. Strip away the header number and the process backs it up: a .541 expected slugging mark that's actually about sixty points higher than what he's produced, a .385 expected wOBA, 93.7 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+355

MLB HR · White Sox @ Red Sox

Jarren Duran

Duran is part of the same recent story as Abreu — a left-handed bat with a home run in each of his last two games, one in the four-homer outburst at Dodger Stadium on August 2nd, another in Tuesday's rout of Chicago. He's not the primary power threat in this lineup, but Burke's split against lefties is real this season — nine homers allowed to left-handed bats against four to righties — and it isn't picky about which left-handed hitter is standing in the box. Fenway's got the wind blowing out to center tonight, which doesn't hurt a hitter who has shown over his last two games he can turn on one when Burke's fastball or sinker catches too much of the plate. I like this price on the recent form and the matchup together.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, tied for the best rate on the board tonight, and he's doing it the same week Kansas City raised a flag in right field with his name on it after he passed George Brett as the franchise's all-time home run leader. Dean Kremer, making his Twins debut, has been hit hard by everybody this year — a .383 opponent wOBA — and specifically against right-handed hitters like Perez he's already allowed five home runs in just 58 at-bats.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB HR · Marlins @ Braves

Austin Riley

Riley already showed what he's got tonight — a 433-foot two-run shot to left-center off Grant Holmes last night, and the underlying swing has looked like that all week. He's averaging 97.7 mph off the bat over his last seven games with two barreled balls in ten batted-ball events, which is not the profile of a guy scuffling.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach has hit a home run in four of his last fifteen games, tied for the best rate on the entire board tonight, and he's not chasing his way into that power — a 19 percent chase rate is one of the more disciplined marks in either lineup, paired with a 94 mph average exit velocity. Noah Cameron's opponent OPS against left-handed hitters this year, .801, is actually higher than what he's shown against right-handers, .716, even though the raw home run count favors the other side simply because he faces so many more right-handed bats as a lefty. Larnach is exactly the patient, hard-contact left-handed swing built to take advantage of that split. At plus-700 for a hitter running this kind of power output lately, I like the number.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Cardinals @ Yankees

Spencer Jones

Jones has four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and three home runs in his last seven games — the loudest contact-quality read on this whole board right now. He's still a hitter finding his level up here, chasing at a forty-four percent clip, and that swing-and-miss is real risk. But the ball is coming off his bat at 92.8 mph on average this past week, and a left-handed pull hitter with that kind of exit velocity plays well into this yard's short right-field corner.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · White Sox @ Red Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is the hottest bat in the White Sox lineup right now, and not just by the count — four home runs over his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week, to go with a recent stretch averaging 93.4 miles an hour off the bat and three barreled balls out of his last fifteen in play. That's a twenty percent barrel rate, which is elite by any measure.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Marlins @ Braves

Kyle Stowers

Stowers has been the hottest power bat in Miami's lineup for two weeks running — four home runs, a .949 OPS, averaging 96.2 mph off the bat with three barreled balls in his last eighteen batted-ball events. The Astros were reportedly calling about him before the deadline and Miami turned it down, which tells you where their own front office has him valued.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Pirates @ Brewers

Endy Rodriguez

Kyle Harrison is walking back into this lineup off one low-minors rehab outing, and the version of him on the mound before the forearm sent him out wasn't right — 11.2 innings, eight earned runs, a 6.17 ERA over his last three turns. First start back, on a leash, and the platoon split that matters most tonight cuts against him hard: right-handed hitters have gone .218 with a .658 OPS and nine home runs in 225 at-bats off Harrison this season, a far worse number than what he's shown left-handed hitters. Endy Rodriguez swings from the right side against a left-hander, and he's already touched this Brewers staff for one — the ball he put into the seats off Henderson Tuesday night was part of a stretch where he's cashed this exact prop in three of his last fifteen games, sitting on a 93-plus mph average exit velocity in that window. That's not empty contact. A rusty arm working back from injury, a specific number he's leaked to right-handers all year, and a hitter who's actively hot against this pitching staff right now — I like the swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone is hitting .308 with an .885 OPS over the past week, and the underlying contact backs up the results — a 92.2 mph average exit velocity with thirteen hard-hit balls among his last twenty-three in play. He's a left-handed bat walking into about as favorable a pitching matchup as this board offers: Dean Kremer has been torched by left-handed hitters all season, a .963 OPS and seven home runs allowed in just 82 at-bats against them, and that's a full season's worth of damage, not a small-sample fluke. Caglianone's swing is built to expose exactly that kind of contact-heavy vulnerability. The price is short because the market is looking at the same matchup I am, but I still want a piece of it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+360

MLB HR · Cardinals @ Yankees

Luis Garcia Jr.

Garcia got traded from Washington to New York two days ago and hasn't cooled off for a second — seventeen hits in his last fifteen games, four of them home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and a six percent whiff rate that says he's barely missing anything he decides to swing at. He's left-handed, and Pallante's one real platoon leak is exactly that side of the plate — a .731 OPS and six homers allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to righties, with barrel and hard-hit numbers that otherwise say he's tough to square up.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Marlins @ Braves

Ronald Acuna Jr.

Acuña's batting line the last week is rough to look at — .154 — but the power hasn't gone anywhere: two home runs in his last seven games, three barreled balls in nineteen batted-ball events. He's expanding the zone more than usual and missing more than usual too, so the average is going to lag behind the damage when he connects. He's a right-handed bat walking into the same matchup Riley gets tonight — Eury Pérez, who's allowed a .731 OPS and nine home runs in 163 at-bats to right-handers against a .591 mark for lefties. The swing-and-miss stretch is real, but so is the pop, and tonight's matchup is built for it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · Twins @ Royals

Josh Bell

Josh Bell already left the yard against Kansas City on Tuesday, and the underlying contact says he can do it again — a 93.4 mph average exit velocity and three barrels on his last eighteen balls in play, with a 14 percent whiff rate that says he isn't missing the pitch he's looking for. Noah Cameron takes the mound tonight at the one park where his own numbers say he's most hittable — a 5.76 ERA at Kauffman against a 3.54 mark on the road this season. Bell's home run count, just once in his last fifteen games, hasn't caught up to how well he's been squaring the ball up. At plus-800, I don't need it to land every night for this to be worth playing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800

MLB HR · Marlins @ Braves

Griffin Conine

Conine's contact quality the last two weeks is as loud as anyone's on this board — 97.8 mph average exit velocity, three barreled balls in his last thirteen batted-ball events. It's not empty contact either: his expected slugging on the year sits at .525 against an actual .535, so this isn't a guy running ahead of his real form.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB · Tigers @ Mariners

Bryan Woo

Bryan Woo has allowed more than two earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, and the last three alone add up to sixteen innings and twelve earned runs. That's a pattern, not a bad week.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-160

MLB · Tigers @ Mariners

Zach McKinstry

Zach McKinstry is 15 for 39 over his last two weeks with a hit in ten of his last fifteen games, and the underlying contact backs the number up — 90.3 mph average exit velocity, ten hard-hit balls in twenty-one batted-ball events, and a whiff rate of just twelve percent. That's a bat making contact almost every time it swings.

OVER 0.5 Hits-108

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Mitch Bratt

Fifteen walks in twenty and two-thirds innings works out to something like six and a half free passes every nine, and it hasn't been trending toward correction — his last two starts produced five walks against Washington and four against Cleveland, his two highest single-game totals of the season. He's cleared one and a half walks in four of his five starts; the one time he didn't, he also only threw four and two-thirds innings.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-116

MLB · Padres @ Diamondbacks

Casey Mize

Mize has walked more than one batter in a start just twice in his last eight, and both came back in early July. Over his last six outings the walk totals read 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 0 — nineteen walks in eighty-six and two-thirds innings on the season, a rate just under two per nine that puts him with the more disciplined arms in the league. Tonight he's in a new uniform, throwing to Luis Campusano for the first time, eleven days removed from his last start for Detroit.

UNDER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-111

Hub research

171

starter_team_recordLAD @ CHC
Dodgers 8-0 in Eric Lauer's last 8 starts
Eight starts, eight wins — the Dodgers haven't lost with Eric Lauer on the mound in his last eight trips out there, and he's back at it tonight against the Cubs. A streak that clean isn't just him — the lineup and bullpen have held up their end too — but there's no sign of it cracking yet.
cut_listSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Starts tonight for SF — 7.64 xERA behind a 6.63 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
starter_team_recordWSH @ PHI
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
One win in Andrew Painter's last eight starts, and Philadelphia's lost six straight with him on the bump. Whatever's working for this Phillies team right now, it isn't showing up on the nights he pitches.
head_to_headWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 8-2 vs Nationals this season
Philadelphia's owned this series, 8-2 on the year with a 5-0 shutout in the last meeting. Wide margins like that in a season series usually mean real separation between the two sides, not just puddle-deep noise.
starter_team_recordCHW @ BOS
White Sox 7-1 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
7-1. That's Chicago's record in Sean Burke's last eight starts, and he's back out there tonight in Boston. A run like that doesn't happen by accident — book it as a number worth tracking, not a fluke to wave off after one look.
starter_team_recordTB @ COL
Rockies 7-1 in Tomoyuki Sugano's last 8 starts
Colorado is 7-1 when Tomoyuki Sugano takes the ball, winners of three straight starts from him now. He gets Coors again tonight, which — contrary to what you'd expect from that ballpark — has actually been kind to him.
cut_listBAL tonight
Christian Franklin
Still hitting 1st for BAL — 0.333 OPS, 0.000 AVG from the 1-hole.
cut_listSF tonight
Buddy Kennedy
Still hitting 6th for SF — 0.274 OPS, 0.050 AVG from the 6-hole.
starter_team_recordTB @ COL
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Tampa Bay is 6-1 when Nick Martinez starts, and that shiny 2.77 ERA behind it has been outkicking his actual contact quality most of the year. He's the one they need to go deep tonight too — the bullpen's already worn thin out in Colorado.
streakingMIA @ ATL
ATL have won 7 straight
Seven straight wins and a plus-16 run differential over that run — Atlanta isn't just winning close, they're doing damage. 7-0 in the last seven says this isn't a team sneaking by.
P team won 1-4
cut_listCOL tonight
Tomoyuki Sugano
Starts tonight for COL — 7.22 xERA behind a 4.47 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
platoon_edgeSTL @ NYY
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Will Warren (RHP)
Third in the order against a right-hander is the RBI look built for the better half of Burleson's platoon split. Warren has to beat him straight tonight — there's no soft out to hide him in that spot.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
streakingNYM @ CLE
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Six unders in a row for Mets games, averaging under 5 runs a night against lines that keep getting set near 8. Tonight's number is 8.5 — same story, same gap between what the market expects and what's actually been happening.
P final total 11 vs 8.5
platoon_edgeLAA @ BAL
Coby Mayo (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Fifth spot, left-hander on the mound — that's Mayo's best matchup lined up with an RBI spot, not buried in the order. Detmers doesn't get to pitch around him there.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 3rd against Hunter Brown (RHP)
Third against a righty is the best-case at-bat for Sanchez, and it's not a one-time look — he's getting multiple cracks at Brown before this game ever reaches the bullpen. That's the matchup I'd want on repeat if I were filling out this lineup.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgePIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Leading off against Paul Skenes is about as tough a first at-bat as exists in this league, but Turang's split against right-handers says he's the one built to take it on. I like that Milwaukee isn't saving him for an easier look later.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCHW @ BOS
Sam Antonacci (bats L) hits 1st against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Leadoff against a right-hander gets Antonacci the most looks at exactly the matchup he handles best. He'll see Gray two or three times before Boston's bullpen is even a conversation.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: 1.110 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a 1.110 OPS, up 0.419 on his .691 season mark. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgePIT @ MIL
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Cleanup against a lefty, and even his weaker side against right-handers is playable — there's no easy path around Valdez tonight. Harrison's working through a real bat in a spot where the top of the order is supposed to already be on.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIA @ ATL
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Bryce Elder (RHP), batting 2nd
Batting Stowers second gets his best matchup on the field in the first inning instead of waiting for the order to turn over. Elder's seeing the version of him built to beat a right-hander before he's even settled into the game.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
starter_team_recordCHW @ BOS
Red Sox 6-2 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
Six wins in his last eight says more about the whole team's approach on those days than it does about him alone. Chicago's catching that same version of the Red Sox tonight, the one that's won three of every four with him on the mound.
starter_team_recordLAA @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Trevor Rogers's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 6-2 in Trevor Rogers's last eight starts, a solid number for him to carry into tonight. Only problem is he draws Reid Detmers on the other side, and Detmers has been about as hot as any arm on this slate — 1.65 over his last three.
head_to_headMIA @ ATL
Braves are 6-2 vs Marlins this season
Atlanta's already up 6-2 in the season series over Miami, and that tracks with the team they've been lately — seven straight wins and counting into tonight. No signs pointing the other way here.
head_to_headPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 6-2 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's won this series 6-2, but Milwaukee grabbed the last one 4-2 and gets them at home tonight — call it a revenge spot for the Brewers. Skenes takes the ball for the Pirates with a bullpen behind him that's already logged 13-plus innings over the last three games, so length from him matters more than usual.
head_to_headCHW @ BOS
Red Sox are 4-0 vs White Sox this season
Boston hasn't lost to Chicago yet this year — 4-0 in the series, and the last one wasn't close at 14-2. Sean Burke's personal record says the White Sox win when he starts, but this particular opponent hasn't gotten that memo.
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
Jeremy Pena: 1.238 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thirteen home runs were already banked before this stretch started, so a hot streak on top of that isn't some fluke bat sneaking into the conversation. Toronto's facing a power hitter who isn't missing his pitch right now, and that's dangerous regardless of matchup.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
starter_team_recordMIN @ KC
Royals 2-6 in Noah Cameron's last 8 starts
Two-and-six with four straight losses isn't a stretch that's stabilizing, it's one that's gotten worse the longer it's gone. Minnesota's catching Kansas City about as low as this version of the team has been all year.
platoon_edgeTOR @ HOU
Taylor Trammell (bats L) hits 5th against Jameson Taillon (RHP)
Fifth against a righty, right behind the top of the order — if Houston does anything against Taillon early, Trammell's the one positioned to do damage with it. That's a matchup working for him, not against him.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgeTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.960 OPS, 211 AB) sits well above his .615 mark the other way (52 AB). Tonight's starter Nick Martinez throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftOAK @ CIN
Rhett Lowder's ERA drops to 3.07 at Great American Ball Park
Rhett Lowder at home is basically a different pitcher — 3.07 ERA at Great American Ball Park against 7.71 anywhere else. That split matters tonight because he's actually pitching at home, which is the one thing working in his favor after a brutal last three starts.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
platoon_edgeLAD @ CHC
Carson Kelly (bats R) draws Eric Lauer (LHP), batting 4th
Carson Kelly carries a .975 OPS vs. Left (90 AB) against .596 the other way (172 AB), and faces LHP Eric Lauer from the 4th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 3-for-5, 3 TB
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .503 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
A slump this deep against a matchup he's actually built to beat usually means the contact's been fine and the results haven't landed yet. Pallante's not the arm that explains a cold stretch like this — I'd expect better than the last two weeks out of Rice tonight.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
cooling_offLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .337 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
This isn't just a cold two weeks, it's a cold two weeks against the exact type of pitching that's given him trouble all season. Imanaga isn't a get-right matchup for Betts — it's the same problem he's had all year, showing up at a bad time.
P 4-for-5, 4 TB
gary_hr_threatsWhite Sox @ Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
Gary's Take Rafaela is the hottest hand in this lineup by a distance. He homered in three straight games against the Dodgers last weekend, including a two-homer night on August 1st, then came back to Fenway Tuesday and kept the line moving with a two-run double instead of a homer — four home runs in his last four games played, six home runs in his last fifteen.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeTB @ COL
Liam Hicks (bats L) hits 4th against Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP)
Over 279 AB vs. Right, Liam Hicks owns a .891 OPS versus .515 in 80 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tomoyuki Sugano tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
streakingTOR @ HOU
TOR games have gone UNDER 5 straight
Five straight unders for Toronto, averaging 5.2 runs a night against lines set around 8.3 — tonight's total sits at 8, same shape. This isn't just a first-inning problem either, the whole lineup's gone cold.
P final total 9 vs 8
heat_checkCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.139 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifteen home runs were already on the board before this surge, so this reads like a hitter compounding a good season, not stumbling into a fluke two weeks. Chicago's staff is facing a bat that's finding its best swing more often than not right now.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
streakingOAK @ CIN
OAK have lost 5 straight
Oakland's lost five in a row and been outscored by 28 runs doing it — 1-6 over the last seven. They send out Jacob Lopez tonight, though, and he's actually looked like a different pitcher than his season line the last three times out.
P team lost 2-3
cooling_offPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .505 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Kyle Harrison
Left-handed pitching happens to be the matchup Reynolds has handled best all season, and he's getting it in the middle of his worst two weeks. I'll take the platoon history over the recent slide in that spot.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSTL @ NYY
Heliot Ramos: .447 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
He was already the lesser version of himself against right-handers before this cold stretch started, and tonight doesn't offer a break from that. When the short-term slide and the season-long weakness point the same way, I'm not banking on a bounce-back.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
fantasy_pickupsSF @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran
Pickup vs Carson Whisenhunt (7.64 xERA) — .792 OPS, bats 2nd.
cooling_offMIA @ ATL
Otto Lopez: .571 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bryce Elder
His numbers against right-handers have basically tracked his season line all year, even through this cold stretch — that's a hitter who hasn't actually changed, just hasn't been rewarded. Elder isn't the kind of matchup that keeps a slump like this going.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsMarlins @ Braves
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Stowers is doing the two things I want lined up together right now — the ball is coming off his bat harder than it has all season, and it's actually turning into home runs, four of them in his last fifteen games, not just warning-track noise. Elder's already given up a homer in his last start, and for the year he's letting hitters from either side of the plate slug their way to an OPS near .800 or better off him.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
head_to_headMIN @ KC
Royals are 7-4 vs Twins this season
Kansas City's taken this series 7-4 and blew out Minnesota 8-2 last time these two played. They draw Dean Kremer again tonight, who's been the softest matchup on this whole slate the last three starts — though the Royals' own guy on the mound has home-park issues of his own to answer for.
gary_hr_threatsCardinals @ Yankees
Alec Burleson
Gary's Take Burleson's got three home runs in his last seven games, and the shape of his contact says that's not a hot streak running ahead of itself — his expected slugging is roughly sixty points higher than his actual slugging, his expected average is above his actual average, same story with expected wOBA. That's a hitter the results haven't fully caught up to yet.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsWhite Sox @ Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu
Gary's Take Abreu has a home run in each of his last two games played — one in the four-homer barrage at Dodger Stadium on August 2nd, when four different Red Sox left the yard in the same game, and two more, both solo shots, in Tuesday's rout of this same White Sox club. That matters against Sean Burke specifically.
P 1 HR — 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Justin Foscue's vs. Left line (.929 OPS, 74 AB) sits well above his .579 mark the other way (57 AB). Tonight's starter Carson Whisenhunt throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-2, 3 TB
fantasy_pickupsSF @ TEX
Justin Foscue
Pickup vs Carson Whisenhunt (7.64 xERA) — .778 OPS, bats 5th.
cooling_offCHW @ BOS
Tristan Peters: .283 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sonny Gray
Small sample, steep slide, and a platoon split that says he should be comfortable against exactly this kind of arm — that combination reads like unlucky, not broken. I wouldn't be shocked if tonight's the night it turns for Peters.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 1.84 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three starts, 14.7 innings, three earned runs — a 1.84 ERA that looks nothing like his 5.79 season number. This isn't coming out of nowhere either: his expected numbers had been saying he was better than his results all year.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
gary_hr_threatsMets @ Guardians
Francisco Lindor
Gary's Take Lindor's the best number on the board for me tonight. He's carrying real momentum into this one — three home runs and nine RBI over his last fifteen games, an OPS pushing .900 in that stretch, so this isn't a name I'm picking on reputation alone.
P 0 HR — 0-for-5, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsPirates @ Brewers
Jackson Chourio
Gary's Take Chourio's been squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now. Over his last look he put thirteen hard-hit balls on twenty-two in play, two of them barrels, and he closed the book on the Pirates in the last meeting with a three-for-four night that included a homer to right center.
P 0 HR — 0-for-4, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsSF @ TEX
Brandon Nimmo
Pickup vs Carson Whisenhunt (7.64 xERA) — .774 OPS, bats 3rd.
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .541 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jake Irvin
Schwarber's been great against everything this year and just a shade less great against right-handers — that's not a real weakness, that's rounding error on an excellent season. I'm not reading much into a cold stretch against a side he's actually handled fine all year.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
ownedLAA @ BAL
Travis d'Arnaud vs Trevor Rogers: .467
This isn't two lucky knocks, it's a track record — d'Arnaud's clearly picked up real reads on what Rogers wants to throw him. However cold the rest of his bat has run, this particular matchup has stayed his.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
heat_checkWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.188 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twenty-eight home runs already, and he's still finding another gear on top of it — that's not a fluke case sneaking into the conversation, that's one of the league's best hitters getting hotter. Philadelphia's catching him about as locked in as he's been all season.
P 3-for-5, 5 TB
platoon_edgeSF @ TEX
Elias Diaz (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Elias Diaz's vs. Left line (.900 OPS, 49 AB) sits well above his .556 mark the other way (76 AB). Tonight's starter Carson Whisenhunt throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
fantasy_pickupsTB @ COL
Jonathan Aranda
Pickup vs Tomoyuki Sugano (7.22 xERA) — .809 OPS, bats 2nd.
cooling_offWSH @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .386 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jake Irvin
His work against right-handers has run well above his season line all year, and that's exactly the look he's getting tonight in the middle of a rough stretch. This reads like sequencing catching up to Marsh, not a hitter who's lost anything.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
starter_formMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 10.29 ERA over his last 3 starts
Fourteen innings, sixteen earned runs, twenty hits allowed — a 10.29 ERA over his last three that's nearly four runs worse than his already-shaky season number. Whatever's wrong with Kremer right now, it's gotten worse, not better.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
regression_watchTB @ COL
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.47 ERA vs 7.22 xERA
Sugano's sitting on a 4.47 ERA, but his expected number is a full 2.75 runs worse at 7.22 — opponents are hitting .264 against him with a .316 expected average attached. That's a wide enough gap that the results have been running well ahead of the process.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
two_start_weekColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Tuesday's turn against the Rays already happened before I could weigh in on it, so the week comes down to Sunday at St. Louis. That's a road start, but it's backed by a 2.41 xERA — the best number on this board of eight. Full go both turns — best xERA in the group, and Sunday's the one that still counts.
cooling_offMIA @ ATL
Lane Thomas: .424 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Lane Thomas's .424 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .714 season mark, down 0.29. Tonight he draws RHP Eury Perez — his weaker side: a .660 OPS vs RHP across 172 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Henderson already turned in Tuesday against the Pirates. What's left is Sunday against the Twins, and both of his turns this week are at home. 2.61 xERA on the season, second-best of this group. Start him with confidence — two home turns and the number to match.
cooling_offTB @ COL
Jake McCarthy: .621 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nick Martinez
Jake McCarthy's .621 OPS over the last 15 days (56 PA) trails his .824 season mark, down 0.203. Tonight he draws RHP Nick Martinez — his weaker side: a .790 OPS vs RHP across 261 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offSF @ TEX
Bryce Eldridge: .560 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cody Bradford
Bryce Eldridge's .560 OPS over the last 15 days (47 PA) trails his .795 season mark, down 0.235. Tonight he draws LHP Cody Bradford — his weaker side: a .771 OPS vs LHP across 67 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
cooling_offCHW @ BOS
Colson Montgomery: .485 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sonny Gray
Colson Montgomery's .485 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .745 season mark, down 0.26. Tonight he draws RHP Sonny Gray — his weaker side: a .685 OPS vs RHP across 276 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueTB @ COL
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 14.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa Bay's used ten different relievers for 14.3 innings over the last three games, and three of them — Legumina, Kelly, and Matz — are already working on short rest. Grove, Cook, and Booser are the fresher arms if this one gets tight late, but the real ask tonight is for the starter to get through this lineup himself.
gary_hr_threatsRays @ Rockies
Mickey Moniak
Gary's Take Moniak's season splits point one direction and tonight sits right in it. Fifteen home runs and a 1.029 OPS at home against four home runs and a .690 OPS on the road.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
heat_checkSF @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: 1.021 OPS in Last 15 Days
Thirteen home runs already on the year says the power under this hot streak is real, not empty singles against forgettable arms. This reads like the sharper edge of a breakout season, not a two-week stretch San Francisco should expect to fade on its own.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkSD @ ARI
Luis Rengifo: .889 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 47 PA: a .889 OPS versus .628 for the season, 0.261 above his norm. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsSF @ TEX
Jake Burger
Pickup vs Carson Whisenhunt (7.64 xERA) — .717 OPS, bats 4th.
heat_checkSF @ TEX
Jung Hoo Lee: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days
Only eight homers on the season tells you this isn't a power binge inflating the number — he's finding barrels and using the whole field, which is a steadier kind of hot. That's a tougher out to plan for than a pure slugger running hot, because there's no one pitch he's hunting.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
cooling_offLAD @ CHC
Michael Busch: .532 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Eric Lauer
Michael Busch's .532 OPS over the last 15 days (63 PA) trails his .745 season mark, down 0.213. Tonight he draws LHP Eric Lauer — his stronger side: a .749 OPS vs LHP across 127 AB.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
two_start_weekLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Both of Skubal's turns this week are on the road: Tuesday at the Cubs, already played, and Sunday at the Diamondbacks still ahead. 2.98 xERA, middle of this pack of eight. Still a start for me — all-road week, but nothing here argues for sitting him.
two_start_weekNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
Schlittler's week runs a day ahead of the rest of this list: Monday against the Cardinals is already in, and his back half lands Saturday against the Braves instead of Sunday. Both turns are at home. He's sitting on a 2.96 xERA. Lock him in both turns — and know his week grades out a day ahead of everyone else's here.
heat_checkTB @ COL
Nick Fortes: 1.188 OPS in Last 15 Days
Smaller track record behind this one than a typical two-week surge, but good contact counts the same whether it took ten swings or thirty to show up. Fortes is finding his pitch right now and not missing it.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
platoon_edgeLAD @ CHC
Seiya Suzuki (bats R) draws Eric Lauer (LHP), batting 2nd
Seiya Suzuki carries a .991 OPS vs. Left (95 AB) against .800 the other way (270 AB), and faces LHP Eric Lauer from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
two_start_weekPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Tuesday against the Nationals is already played. Sunday against the Blue Jays is what's in front of him now, and it's another home turn — both of Luzardo's starts this week are at home. 2.96 xERA on the season. Two home starts at a 2.96 — an easy start both times.
rest_fatigueSD @ ARI
13.7 bullpen innings in 3 games for SD
Relievers have absorbed 13.7 innings over the last 3 games (Adrian Morejon (2.7) and Wandy Peralta (2.3) the heaviest). ARI's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 4-10
heat_checkNYM @ CLE
Steven Kwan: .929 OPS in Last 15 Days
A modest season line sitting underneath a stretch this hot tells me it's not a good year getting better, it's a quiet year finally showing up in the results. New York's running into the best version of Kwan all season, whatever the numbers said back in April.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchOAK @ CIN
Jacob Lopez: 5.79 ERA vs 3.69 xERA
The season number says 5.79, but Lopez's expected ERA is 3.69 — a 2.1 run gap that's had him getting hit harder than his actual stuff deserved. His last three starts look like that gap is finally closing.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
two_start_weekSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/3
Logan Webb
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rangers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Tigers. 3.83 xERA this season.
regression_tomorrowLAA @ BAL
Ryan Johnson: 7.63 ERA vs 5.31 xERA
A 36% hard-hit rate doesn't typically produce an ERA over seven-and-a-half — that gap looks more like bad timing than bad stuff. He's on the road tomorrow against Baltimore, and I'd expect a cleaner line than his last few starts suggest.
rest_fatiguePIT @ MIL
PIT's pen has logged 13.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 13.3 innings out of the pen — Yohan Ramirez (3) and Ron Marinaccio (2) carried the load. MIL's pen has thrown 10 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-4
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CIN
Hunter Greene: 6.83 ERA vs 4.46 xERA
Not tonight's game, but worth flagging for the series — Hunter Greene starts tomorrow against Oakland sitting on a 6.83 ERA against a 4.46 expected number. A gap that size says he's been unlucky, not bad.
heat_checkSTL @ NYY
Alec Burleson: 1.035 OPS in Last 15 Days
His season number was already strong, so this reads more like a good hitter having a great two weeks than a new player showing up out of nowhere. Eighteen home runs on the year backs up that the skill set under this stretch is real.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
two_start_weekDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
Melton's Tuesday turn at the Mariners is done. Sunday at the Giants is the one left to plan around, and like his first turn, it's on the road — both starts this week are away. 3.12 xERA. Keep starting him — one road turn left, and the number's still plenty playable.
starter_formLAD @ CHC
Shota Imanaga: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts
Two earned runs over his last 19.7 innings — a 0.92 ERA that's a completely different pitcher than the 3.67 he's carried all season. WHIP's dropped to 0.81 too, so it's not just a couple of soft-contact starts propping the number up.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.123 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 52 PA: a 1.123 OPS versus .919 for the season, 0.204 above his norm. He has 24 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 3-for-5, 10 TB
two_start_weekCleveland Guardians — week of 8/3
Joey Cantillo
Tuesday's Mets start is already in the books. Sunday he's on the road against the White Sox, and 3.99 is the highest xERA in this whole group — the one arm here worth stopping to think about before Sunday. The riskiest call on this list — stream it, don't trust it blind.
heat_checkLAD @ CHC
Freddie Freeman: 1.078 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.078 OPS spans the last 15 days (51 PA) against a .871 season baseline, a 0.207 swing. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
starter_formOAK @ CIN
Rhett Lowder: 8.10 ERA over his last 3 starts
Thirteen and a third innings, twelve earned runs — an 8.10 ERA his last three that's nearly three runs worse than his season mark, even though his WHIP in that stretch (1.43) is actually a touch better than his season number. That's a guy giving up more damage, not more baserunners — and the home split everyone's citing only helps tonight if this start looks like his other home starts and not his last three.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
cooling_offTOR @ HOU
Ernie Clement: .506 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Brown
Ernie Clement's .506 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .720 season mark, down 0.214. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Brown — his stronger side: a .722 OPS vs RHP across 306 AB.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
cooling_offTB @ COL
Jonathan Aranda: .593 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tomoyuki Sugano
Jonathan Aranda's .593 OPS over the last 15 days (53 PA) trails his .809 season mark, down 0.216. Tonight he draws RHP Tomoyuki Sugano — his stronger side: a .875 OPS vs RHP across 288 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
running_gameSTL @ NYY
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 3%
A catcher throwing out three percent of runners isn't a small crack, that's an open door, and the Yankees are going to walk through it all night. St. Louis is playing catch-up on the bases before the first pitch is even thrown.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
heat_checkTOR @ HOU
George Springer: .918 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 53 PA: a .918 OPS versus .729 for the season, 0.189 above his norm. He has 12 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
rest_fatigueCHW @ BOS
CHW's bullpen has covered 12.7 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.7 relief innings in 3 games, led by Noah Schultz (5) and Erick Fedde (3). BOS's pen has thrown 10.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 0-4
cooling_offSF @ TEX
Willy Adames: .521 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cody Bradford
Willy Adames's .521 OPS over the last 15 days (50 PA) trails his .691 season mark, down 0.17. Tonight he draws LHP Cody Bradford — his weaker side: a .592 OPS vs LHP across 106 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchTB @ COL
Nick Martinez: 2.77 ERA vs 4.58 xERA
Martinez is running a 2.77 ERA against a 4.58 expected number, a 1.81 run gap with opponents hitting .247 against a .279 expected mark. Results have clearly been better than the underlying contact — the Rays' 6-1 record with him on the mound has some of that baked in.
P 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
two_start_weekSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/3
Blade Tidwell
Tidwell's Tuesday turn at the Rangers is already played. Sunday at home against the Tigers is what's left, and he brings a 3.29 xERA into it — second-highest of this group. Keep running him out there — one turn left, at home, still worth it.
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
Tuesday at the Brewers is already in the books. Sunday against the Mets is what's left, and it's a home turn to close the week. Jones carries the highest xERA of these eight arms into it, 3.33. Still worth the active spot — softest number of the group, but a two-turn week with a home finish.
starter_formLAA @ BAL
Reid Detmers: 1.65 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three earned runs across his last 16.3 innings, a 1.65 ERA and 0.80 WHIP that bear no resemblance to his 4.03 season line. He walks into Baltimore tonight looking like the sharpest arm on either roster over the last three weeks.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
regression_watchTB @ COL
Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .229 xBA
Nearly 300 plate appearances of outproducing his own contact quality isn't a two-week hot streak, that's been the shape of his whole season. Tampa Bay needs the version of Moniak that's gotten more than he's earned, and I wouldn't bank on that continuing in Colorado.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
closer_watchLAD @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Ryan Zeferjahn
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 5 saves, Ryan Zeferjahn 4. The role is live.
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.
closer_watchLAA @ BAL
Mitch Farris / Sam Bachman
Shared ninth in LAA: Mitch Farris 1 saves, Sam Bachman 1. The role is live.
closer_watchCHW @ BOS
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 5 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.
closer_watchMIN @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
starter_formPIT @ MIL
Paul Skenes: 6.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
A pitcher whose season was built on a clean WHIP suddenly putting this many runners on is a bigger deal than the ERA number alone. Whatever this is, it's three straight starts without the command that makes Skenes who he is, not one bad matchup.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
cooling_offTOR @ HOU
Nathan Lukes: .459 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Brown
Nathan Lukes's .459 OPS over the last 15 days (41 PA) trails his .695 season mark, down 0.236. Tonight he draws RHP Hunter Brown — his stronger side: a .757 OPS vs RHP across 213 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
ballpark_shiftMIN @ KC
Noah Cameron owns a 5.76 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 3.54 everywhere else
Noah Cameron flips the usual script — 5.76 ERA at home in Kauffman across 54.7 innings against 3.54 everywhere else. Hitters are at .307 off him in his own park, which is the kind of split that makes you look twice before assuming home cooking helps him tonight.
P 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
starter_formWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Thirteen innings, thirteen earned runs — a 9.00 ERA his last three starts, with his WHIP creeping up to 1.77 in that stretch too. This lines up with everything else going on with Painter right now: it's not one bad night dragging the numbers down, it's a genuine slide.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
starter_formDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo: 6.75 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 16 innings, 12 earned runs, 20 hits. That 6.75 ERA runs 2.19 over his 4.56 season number.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
rest_fatigueSTL @ NYY
NYY's pen has logged 12.3 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12.3 innings out of the pen — David Bednar (2.7) and Brent Headrick (2.3) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 9.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 3-1
rest_fatigueMIN @ KC
KC's bullpen has covered 12.3 innings over the last 3 games
That is 12.3 relief innings in 3 games, led by Alex Lange (2) and Nate Pearson (2). MIN's pen has thrown 8.3 over the same span.
P flagged side won 1-2
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Andrew Painter: 6.72 ERA vs 5.24 xERA
Even Painter's expected ERA isn't good — 5.24 against his actual 6.72, so this isn't purely a case of bad luck inflating the number. Opponents are hitting .304 off him against a .271 expected mark, meaning some of that gap is earned too.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
rest_fatigueNYM @ CLE
12 bullpen innings in 3 games for CLE
Relievers have absorbed 12 innings over the last 3 games (Slade Cecconi (2.7) and Tim Herrin (2.3) the heaviest). NYM's pen has thrown 11.3 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 6-5
regression_watchMIN @ KC
Dean Kremer: 6.5 ERA vs 4.94 xERA
Kremer's expected ERA of 4.94 is nearly a run and a half better than his actual 6.5, so there's an argument the results have been worse than the stuff deserved. Doesn't line up with his last three starts, though — that stretch has looked worse than even the ugly season number.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
regression_watchLAD @ CHC
Mookie Betts: .223 AVG vs .269 xBA
Over three hundred plate appearances of hitting the ball better than his average shows is too big a sample to write off as noise — the walks and the extra-base pop haven't gone anywhere, just the average. Chicago's catching Betts right before that gap looks likely to close.
P 4-for-5, 4 TB
first_inningDET @ SEA
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of DET @ SEA
Nine of Seattle's last ten games and seven of Detroit's have seen a run cross in the first inning — both sides have been quick out of the gate lately. The board's still got the under at -125, which means the market hasn't fully bought into that trend, and Bryan Woo's own first-inning number this year (4.71 ERA, .265 against) doesn't do much to argue the other way.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
return_watchSEA — return listed 8/5
Matt Brash
Listed back 8/5 (15-Day-IL, lat) — 0.54 ERA this season.
regression_watchPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .302 AVG vs .254 xBA
His average is running ahead of his contact quality by a real margin over a full season, not a two-week stretch. Milwaukee should see more outs mixed into Mangum's night than his batting line has been showing lately.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
rest_fatigueDET @ SEA
DET's pen has logged 12 innings across its last 3 games
3 games, 12 innings out of the pen — Ty Madden (3) and Enmanuel De Jesus (3) carried the load. SEA's pen has thrown 7.7 over the same span.
P flagged side lost 2-4
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Pittsburgh's pen has thrown 13.3 innings over the last three games, and the two arms they lean on most — Ramírez and Doval — have each already pitched twice in that stretch. Soto and Yates are the fresher options back there, which matters more than usual with Skenes on the mound tonight against a Milwaukee team looking for revenge.
regression_watchTB @ COL
Cole Carrigg: .307 AVG vs .264 xBA
Cole Carrigg is hitting .307 against a .264 expected average (xBA) over 178 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .386 against a .338 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cut_listTOR tonight
Jameson Taillon
Starts tonight for TOR — 5.86 xERA behind a 5.92 ERA.
park_weatherTB @ COL
Wind blowing in 10 mph at Coors Field tonight
Conditions at Coors Field: Partly Cloudy, 69°, wind 10 mph, In From CF. That wind knocks down anything hit in the air. The total sits at 11.
P final total 4 vs 11 (under lean)
regression_watchLAD @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .258 AVG vs .298 xBA
Nico Hoerner is hitting .258 against a .298 expected average (xBA) over 494 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .303 against a .326 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit above what he has actually posted.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
return_watchCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsSD @ ARI
Casey Mize
Streamer vs ARI — 3.07 xERA · 8.8 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.
running_gamePIT @ MIL
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras has real pop on his arm — 40% is one of the better marks a Pirates runner sees all year — but Pittsburgh tests it anyway. That makes every leadoff man a live fight: throw him out and Milwaukee banks an out it didn't earn, let him through and Pittsburgh's taken second off one of the tougher arms on the schedule.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
first_inningPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Fifteen clean first innings between these two teams over their last ten games each — Milwaukee's given up a first-inning run just twice, Pittsburgh three times. The board likes the under here too, at -145, and Skenes' own first-inning number (5.16 ERA, five homers allowed in 22.2 innings) is the one crack in that case worth watching.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/7
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/7 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/5
Gavin Stone
Listed back 8/5 (60-Day-IL, shoulder).
cut_listLAA tonight
Travis d'Arnaud
Still hitting 6th for LAA — 0.562 OPS, 0.190 AVG from the 6-hole.
cut_listCOL tonight
Jordan Beck
Still hitting 6th for COL — 0.560 OPS, 0.188 AVG from the 6-hole.
ballpark_shiftTB @ COL
At Coors Field, Tomoyuki Sugano pitches to a 3.78 ERA
Coors Field chews up most pitchers, but Sugano's actually been better there — 3.78 ERA over nine home starts against 5.13 on the road. Combine that with the fact his season-long line already looks better than his contact quality supports, and tonight's venue is one more thing tilting in his favor on paper.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
closer_watchTB @ COL
Bryan Baker
Bryan Baker owns the ninth for the Rays — 31 saves this season (next closest: Tyler Wells with 4).
closer_watchSF @ TEX
Jacob Latz
Jacob Latz owns the ninth for the Rangers — 21 saves this season (next closest: Jakob Junis with 5).
closer_watchTOR @ HOU
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Tyler Rogers with 3).
regression_tomorrowMIA @ ATL
Martín Pérez: 3.24 ERA vs 4.43 xERA
Also not tonight — Pérez starts tomorrow against Miami running a 3.24 ERA against a 4.43 expected number, a gap that says he's been getting more than his contact quality has earned. Worth remembering when that game comes around.
cut_listTOR tonight
Josh Smith
Still hitting 6th for TOR — 0.567 OPS, 0.212 AVG from the 6-hole.
cut_listCIN tonight
Noelvi Marte
Still hitting 5th for CIN — 0.579 OPS, 0.192 AVG from the 5-hole.
first_inningMIA @ ATL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ ATL
Both sides have been quiet early — Atlanta's allowed a first-inning run in just three of their last ten, Miami the same. The board actually likes the over here at -120 though, which cuts against that recent trend. Eury Pérez is part of why: a stingy .174 average against in first innings, but five home runs allowed in just 19 innings there — when he gets hit early, it tends to leave the yard.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
regression_watchSF @ TEX
Wyatt Langford: .264 AVG vs .238 xBA
Across 268 plate appearances, Wyatt Langford carries a .264 average versus a .238 xBA. His wOBA sits at .345 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
fantasy_pickupsDET @ SEA
Bryan Woo
Streamer vs DET — 3.54 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowNYM @ CLE
Foster Griffin: 3.06 ERA vs 4.08 xERA
Cleveland's Foster Griffin starts tomorrow against the Mets with a 3.06 ERA that's outrunning his 4.08 expected number by a full run. Good process argument for regression, just not one that applies to tonight's game.
regression_watchNYM @ CLE
New York Mets are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
The Mets are 10-20 in one-run games, a .333 mark in exactly the kind of split that tends to even out toward .500 over time. Their record's probably selling this team short more than it's telling the truth about them.
running_gameTB @ COL
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Brett Sullivan has caught just 16%
Tampa Bay Rays steal 1 bags a game (110 on the season) and Brett Sullivan has thrown out 6 of 38 runners (16%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 2 bases
regression_tomorrowLAA @ BAL
Brandon Young: 3.31 ERA vs 4.31 xERA
Brandon Young starts against the Angels tomorrow with a shiny 3.31 ERA that's outkicking his 4.31 expected mark. Tonight's not his night, but that gap says regression's coming for him too.
running_gameMIN @ KC
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 12%
12% caught stealing gives Kansas City nothing to think about, and a team that already runs is going to run more against an arm like that. Second base is close to automatic once they're on, and that's the double play off the table before the ball's even in play.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
running_gamePIT @ MIL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Endy Rodriguez has caught just 16%
Rodriguez hasn't thrown anybody out worth mentioning, and Milwaukee's got the legs to make him pay for it. A runner on first against this battery is already halfway to second, and that changes how Pittsburgh's pitcher has to work the count all night.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 3 bases
regression_watchSF @ TEX
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
Out in San Francisco it's the same shape — the Giants are 10-20 in one-run games, a .333 clip that leans heavily on variance rather than true talent. Records like that tend to climb back toward .500 given enough time, which would make the Giants better than they currently look on paper.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CIN
Mason Barnett: 4.85 ERA vs 3.96 xERA
Last one for tomorrow's slate — Oakland's Mason Barnett starts against Cincinnati with a 4.85 ERA against a 3.96 expected number. Smaller gap than the other tomorrow-starters here, but still pointing toward some better results ahead for him.
first_inningTOR @ HOU
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Toronto hasn't scored in the first inning in ten straight games, and the board's under (-120) agrees that's likely to continue. It's not just an early-innings problem either — this lineup's been cold all game long lately — and their own starter tonight, Jameson Taillon, has a 6.00 ERA in first innings himself, so the quiet start could cut both ways.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
regression_watchWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
Philadelphia's 19-10 in one-run games, a .655 mark that's about as far from .500 as these ratios get — usually a sign the record's flattering the team more than the underlying performance would. Funny enough, the one part of this roster that hasn't been charmed at all is Andrew Painter, who takes the ball tonight.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/10
Nick Mears
Listed back 8/10 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 5.12 ERA this season.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsTOR @ HOU
Hunter Brown
Streamer vs TOR — 3.72 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsLAD @ CHC
Shota Imanaga
Streamer vs LAD — 3.72 xERA · 8.4 K/9 · 1.07 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowOAK @ CIN
Andrew Abbott: 3.91 ERA vs 4.71 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 3.91 ERA against a 4.71 expected ERA (0.8 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .240 vs .255 expected.
running_gameOAK @ CIN
Green light: Cincinnati Reds run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%
Jonah Heim is catching tonight at 16% on the season (7-for-45 throwing), and Cincinnati Reds attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Cincinnati Reds stole 2 bases
running_gameMIN @ KC
Minnesota Twins like to run — Salvador Perez (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Perez is one of the better arms Minnesota sees all year and they're running anyway, which says they trust their jump more than they respect the reputation. Get caught and Kansas City banks a cheap out; get through and Minnesota's beaten a real arm for nothing but 90 feet.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
bullpen_fatigueCHW @ BOS
Chicago White Sox pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago's bullpen covered 12.7 innings over the last three games without running anyone back-to-back — this isn't about tired legs, it's about pitch counts. Noah Schultz threw 67 pitches over five innings and Erick Fedde threw 50 over three, loads heavy enough to make either one a question mark for multiple innings again tonight. Taylor, Davitt, Domínguez, and Richards are the fresher, shorter-outing arms behind them if length is needed.
cut_listLAD tonight
Mookie Betts
Still hitting 6th for LAD — 0.670 OPS, 0.223 AVG from the 6-hole.
first_inningSF @ TEX
SF have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Francisco's scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games, and tonight's board (+100 over / -130 under) suggests the market's caught up to that. Combine it with a lineup already living on the wrong side of one-run games this year, and this offense has had trouble delivering when the moment's tightest.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningSTL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
New York's bats have scored a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, but this is a two-way market and the board still likes the over here (-120) — probably because Will Warren's been lights-out early (2.14 ERA, .221 against) while St. Louis's Andre Pallante has been far more hittable in the first (5.57 ERA, .247 against). If the first inning breaks the Yankees' cold streak, it's more likely to be their bats off Pallante than the other way around.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningMIN @ KC
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Minnesota's first-inning bats have been just as quiet as their pitching matchup is loud — one run in ten doesn't care who's on the mound. If this game opens up early, it's the shakier starter's command doing it, not anything Minnesota's lineup does.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.

Graded results

Games

L
Astros -1.5 -106
MLB · 5-4
L
Padres ML -128
MLB · 4-10
W
Rangers ML -147
MLB · 0-6
W
Reds ML -161
MLB · 2-3
L
Phillies -1.5 +108
MLB · 10-4
L
Pirates ML +116
MLB · 2-4
W
Cubs ML -108
MLB · 6-7
W
Mets ML +101
MLB · 6-5
W
Tampa Bay Rays ML -153
MLB · 4-0
W
Orioles ML -134
MLB · 2-5
W
Braves ML -123
MLB · 1-4
W
Royals ML -108
MLB · 1-2
W
Red Sox ML -140
MLB · 0-4
L
Yankees ML -158
MLB · 3-1
L
Tigers ML +136
MLB · 2-4

Props

L
Alec Burleson · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Alec Burleson · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 2
L
Austin Riley · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Brandon Nimmo · over
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Bryan Woo · over
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Bryce Elder · under
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 3
L
Bryce Harper · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 1
W
Carson Whisenhunt · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 10
L
Casey Mize · under
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
L
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Chase DeLauter · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
L
Christian Encarnacion-Strand · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Christian Scott · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 7
L
CJ Abrams · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Cody Bradford · under
Giants @ Rangers · Actual 13
L
Daylen Lile · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Dean Kremer · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 3
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 1
W
Endy Rodriguez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 1
W
Eury Perez · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 9
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 0
W
Garrett Mitchell · under
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Jake Irvin · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 2
W
Jameson Taillon · under
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 12
L
Jarren Duran · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Jose Altuve · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 1
W
Jose Siri · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Josh Bell · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Max Muncy · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 1
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 0
W
Mitch Bratt · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Nick Martinez · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 4
W
Nico Hoerner · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 2
L
Paul Skenes · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 6
L
Pete Alonso · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 2
L
Ronald Acuna Jr. · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Royce Lewis · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Sal Stewart · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
L
Salvador Perez · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Salvador Perez · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Sean Burke · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 4
W
Seiya Suzuki · over
Dodgers @ Cubs · Actual 2
L
Spencer Jones · over
Cardinals @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Steven Kwan · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 1
L
Trea Turner · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Trevor Larnach · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Trevor Rogers · under
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 2
W
Tristan Peters · under
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Tyler O'Neill · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 1
L
Vaughn Grissom · over
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 0
L
Victor Mesa Jr. · under
Rays @ Rockies · Actual 2
W
Wilyer Abreu · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 1
L
Yordan Alvarez · over
Blue Jays @ Astros · Actual 2
L
Zach McKinstry · over
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0