Blue Jays at Astros

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• GARY'S PICK

  JAMESON TAILLONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

  MLBToronto Blue Jays· +148

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 12

  GARY'S TAKE

  Taillon's Blue Jays debut comes nine days removed from getting designated for assignment by the Cubs, and the tape explains why: his last three starts have produced nine and a third innings, twelve earned runs, an 11.57 ERA. He hasn't reached fourteen outs in any of them — his longest was four and a third innings. His cutter is getting hunted for a .746 expected weighted-on-base against and his fastball sits under 92, both pitches he's had to lean on all year. Now he walks into Daikin Park with the roof shut against a lineup that put seven runs on his new team a night ago, with Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez both scorching hot at the top of the order. There's no reason for Schneider to let this rope play out past the fifth if it starts unraveling early, and recent history says it usually does.

  ×

  Jameson Taillon
  Pitcher Outs under 14.5

  +148 · CASHED · ACTUAL 12

  Toronto Blue Jays

  Read Gary’s Take

  Taillon's Blue Jays debut comes nine days removed from getting designated for assignment by the Cubs, and the tape explains why: his last three starts have produced nine and a third innings, twelve earned runs, an 11.57 ERA. He hasn't reached fourteen outs in any of them — his longest was four and a third innings.

  His cutter is getting hunted for a .746 expected weighted-on-base against and his fastball sits under 92, both pitches he's had to lean on all year. Now he walks into Daikin Park with the roof shut against a lineup that put seven runs on his new team a night ago, with Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez both scorching hot at the top of the order.

  There's no reason for Schneider to let this rope play out past the fifth if it starts unraveling early, and recent history says it usually does.

• GARY'S PICK

  YORDAN ALVAREZH+R+RBI OVER 2.5

  MLBHouston Astros· +110

  LOST · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  Alvarez hits .351 with a 1.161 OPS against right-handers this year, and Taillon throws right-handed with a fastball and cutter that have both been hit hard all season. At home, Alvarez is at .386 with nineteen homers; over his last two weeks he's at .370. He bats second in front of Altuve, Varsho, Trammell and Walker, so the RBI chances are there most nights, and this offense scores enough that the runs follow. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs at plus money is a below-average night for the best hitter in this game against a pitcher carrying an 11.57 ERA over his last three trips to the mound.

  ×

  Yordan Alvarez
  H+R+RBI over 2.5

  +110 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

  Houston Astros

  Read Gary’s Take

  Alvarez hits .351 with a 1.161 OPS against right-handers this year, and Taillon throws right-handed with a fastball and cutter that have both been hit hard all season. At home, Alvarez is at .386 with nineteen homers; over his last two weeks he's at .370. He bats second in front of Altuve, Varsho, Trammell and Walker, so the RBI chances are there most nights, and this offense scores enough that the runs follow. Two and a half combined hits, runs and RBIs at plus money is a below-average night for the best hitter in this game against a pitcher carrying an 11.57 ERA over his last three trips to the mound.

• THE LONG SHOT

  JOSE ALTUVEHR OVER 0.5

  MLBHouston Astros· +650

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  Jameson Taillon didn't land in Toronto because he was pitching well. The Cubs designated him for assignment nine days ago, and it's easy to see why: nine home runs allowed across his last six starts, an ERA that topped eleven in July and sits at 6.75 through his brief August. Both of his top two pitches are getting hit hard right now — a .490 expected wOBA against the four-seamer, .746 against the cutter — and a 15.7 percent barrel rate allowed is a real problem, not noise. He's a fly-ball pitcher walking into a park with a 315-foot porch in left built for right-handed pull power. Against right-handed hitters this year he's allowed 11 home runs in 146 at-bats, an extreme number for a starter, and in seven career appearances against this Houston lineup they've hit .277 off him. Altuve hasn't gone deep in his last fifteen games, and he's at zero barrels on twenty-five batted balls this week — I'm not going to pretend that's nothing. But the timing is there: nine hits in his last twenty-four at-bats, a .375 average, a whiff rate under ten percent. That's a hitter squaring up the ball consistently who just hasn't lifted one out yet, not a hitter who's lost anything. Against a pitcher this hittable, in the one ballpark built for exactly his swing, with Toronto's bullpen already thin behind him — Chad Dallas got torched for 74 pitches in three innings yesterday and was optioned to Buffalo this morning — I like the contact catching up to the power tonight.

  ×

  Jose Altuve
  HR over 0.5

  +650 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Houston Astros

  Read Gary’s Take

  Jameson Taillon didn't land in Toronto because he was pitching well. The Cubs designated him for assignment nine days ago, and it's easy to see why: nine home runs allowed across his last six starts, an ERA that topped eleven in July and sits at 6.75 through his brief August. Both of his top two pitches are getting hit hard right now — a .490 expected wOBA against the four-seamer, .746 against the cutter — and a 15.7 percent barrel rate allowed is a real problem, not noise. He's a fly-ball pitcher walking into a park with a 315-foot porch in left built for right-handed pull power. Against right-handed hitters this year he's allowed 11 home runs in 146 at-bats, an extreme number for a starter, and in seven career appearances against this Houston lineup they've hit .277 off him.

  Altuve hasn't gone deep in his last fifteen games, and he's at zero barrels on twenty-five batted balls this week — I'm not going to pretend that's nothing. But the timing is there: nine hits in his last twenty-four at-bats, a .375 average, a whiff rate under ten percent. That's a hitter squaring up the ball consistently who just hasn't lifted one out yet, not a hitter who's lost anything. Against a pitcher this hittable, in the one ballpark built for exactly his swing, with Toronto's bullpen already thin behind him — Chad Dallas got torched for 74 pitches in three innings yesterday and was optioned to Buffalo this morning — I like the contact catching up to the power tonight.

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