MLB · Wed, Aug 5 · 7:05 PM

Cardinals at Yankees

O/U 8.5 · RL Yankees -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Cardinals· -158

Rubber game in the Bronx, 7:05, a warm night with the wind pushing right to left, and both of these clubs walk in having already shown the other exactly what they are. Monday the Cardinals hung thirteen and Alec Burleson put three into the right-field seats. Tuesday they got shut out, and a twenty-one-year-old kid named Lombard homered in his first big-league week to win it 2-0. Somebody's version of this series is the truth. I think we find out tonight. Let me be straight about the part that gives me pause: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher in this game. He's the arm St. Louis has leaned on all year, he's holding hitters to a .299 expected mark, and he's allowed five earned runs across his last three starts working at 95 with a sinker and a slider that misses bats. He also has one soft spot, and it's the one that matters in this building — left-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .731 OPS and six home runs, and the Yankees are sending seven of them to the plate in a park with a 314-foot porch. Will Warren has the same leak, only deeper: a .782 mark and ten homers surrendered to lefties, a sinker and a sweeper that hitters are squaring up. The difference is who's standing in against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee this afternoon, already shipped Lars Nootbaar out at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks in the bottom third. Take away Monday's outburst and this offense has scored 2.2 runs a game over its last ten, including a zero last night. So I keep coming back to the seventh, eighth and ninth. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three have handed over nothing but zeroes in this series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who gave up three earned recording one out on Monday, George Soriano with two blown saves inside a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them anymore because both got traded. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it may not deserve, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, at 3-7 over its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I don't think he keeps it his. Yankees moneyline at -158 — it's not a bargain, and I'm not pretending it is. It's the right side of a one-run game.

Let me be straight about the part that gives me pause: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher in this game. He's the arm St. Louis has leaned on all year, he's holding hitters to a .299 expected mark, and he's allowed five earned runs across his last three starts working at 95 with a sinker and a slider that misses bats. He also has one soft spot, and it's the one that matters in this building — left-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .731 OPS and six home runs, and the Yankees are sending seven of them to the plate in a park with a 314-foot porch. Will Warren has the same leak, only deeper: a .782 mark and ten homers surrendered to lefties, a sinker and a sweeper that hitters are squaring up. The difference is who's standing in against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee this afternoon, already shipped Lars Nootbaar out at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks in the bottom third. Take away Monday's outburst and this offense has scored 2.2 runs a game over its last ten, including a zero last night.

So I keep coming back to the seventh, eighth and ninth. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three have handed over nothing but zeroes in this series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who gave up three earned recording one out on Monday, George Soriano with two blown saves inside a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them anymore because both got traded. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it may not deserve, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, at 3-7 over its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I don't think he keeps it his. Yankees moneyline at -158 — it's not a bargain, and I'm not pretending it is. It's the right side of a one-run game.

The pick & result

Published pick: Yankees ML -158
Published odds: -158
Result: Lost
Final score: 3-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Rubber game in the Bronx tonight, first pitch just after seven, warm out with the wind blowing across the field. Both teams have already shown each other exactly who they are. Monday the Cardinals put up a crooked number and Alec Burleson hit three balls into the right-field seats. Tuesday they didn't score at all, and a twenty-one-year-old kid named Lombard, barely a week into the big leagues, homered to win it for New York. One of those two games is the real story. I think we find out which one tonight.

Let me be honest about the part that worries me: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher here. He's the guy St. Louis has counted on all season, hitters haven't done much against him, and he's kept the damage small over his last three starts throwing hard with a sinker and a slider that gets swings and misses. But he has one weak spot, and it's exactly the wrong one in this ballpark — left-handed hitters have done real damage against him, and the Yankees are running out a lineup full of them in a stadium with that short porch in right. Will Warren has the same problem, only worse — lefties have hit him hard and taken him deep plenty. The difference is who's batting against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee injury this afternoon, already traded Lars Nootbaar away at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks near the bottom of the order. Throw out Monday's outburst and this offense has barely scored at all over its last ten games, including that goose egg last night.

So I keep landing on the late innings. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three haven't given up a run all series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who got hammered Monday while recording a single out, George Soriano, who's already coughed up two leads in a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them because both got traded away. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it might not even earn, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, after losing most of its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I just don't think he gets to keep it. I'm on the Yankees to win outright — you're laying a bit extra and I won't pretend it's a bargain. It's just the right side of a one-run game.

The full analysis

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Will Warren (RHP)
.967
Third in the order against a right-hander is the RBI look built for the better half of Burleson's platoon split. Warren has to beat him straight tonight — there's no soft out to hide him in that spot.

HEAT CHECK

Alec Burleson: 1.035 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.035
His season number was already strong, so this reads more like a good hitter having a great two weeks than a new player showing up out of nowhere. Eighteen home runs on the year backs up that the skill set under this stretch is real.

COOLING OFF

Ben Rice: .503 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
.503
A slump this deep against a matchup he's actually built to beat usually means the contact's been fine and the results haven't landed yet. Pallante's not the arm that explains a cold stretch like this — I'd expect better than the last two weeks out of Rice tonight.
Heliot Ramos: .447 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
.447
He was already the lesser version of himself against right-handers before this cold stretch started, and tonight doesn't offer a break from that. When the short-term slide and the season-long weakness point the same way, I'm not banking on a bounce-back.

HR THREAT

Alec Burleson
+355
Gary's Take Burleson's got three home runs in his last seven games, and the shape of his contact says that's not a hot streak running ahead of itself — his expected slugging is roughly sixty points higher than his actual slugging, his expected average is above his actual average, same story with expected wOBA. That's a hitter the results haven't fully caught up to yet.

FIRST INNING

NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10
New York's bats have scored a first-inning run just once in their last ten games, but this is a two-way market and the board still likes the over here (-120) — probably because Will Warren's been lights-out early (2.14 ERA, .221 against) while St. Louis's Andre Pallante has been far more hittable in the first (5.57 ERA, .247 against). If the first inning breaks the Yankees' cold streak, it's more likely to be their bats off Pallante than the other way around.

RUNNING GAME

Green light: New York Yankees run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 3%
3% CS
A catcher throwing out three percent of runners isn't a small crack, that's an open door, and the Yankees are going to walk through it all night. St. Louis is playing catch-up on the bases before the first pitch is even thrown.

SITUATIONAL

NYY's pen has logged 12.3 innings across its last 3 games
12.3
3 games, 12.3 innings out of the pen — David Bednar (2.7) and Brent Headrick (2.3) carried the load. STL's pen has thrown 9.3 over the same span.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 5, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, betmgm, caesars, draftkings, betrivers.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
ALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +118
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 2
Burleson already showed you what he can do to this pitching staff — three balls into the right-field seats Monday night. I'm not chasing the home run number off one big game, but the total bases line is a different animal, because that outburst isn't sitting on nothing. His expected slugging this year is .541 against an actual .480 — the quality of contact has been ahead of the results, and Monday was the results catching up. He's 9 for 24 with three homers over his last week, he's left-handed, and he's walking into a right-field porch that's 314 feet away against a right-hander who has already surrendered ten home runs to lefties this season and gets hit hard when he does — 41.8 percent hard-contact allowed. Warren's sinker in particular has been hit at a .299 clip. One extra-base hit clears this number, and Burleson is squarely the hitter and the matchup to expect it from tonight.
Alec Burleson
Total Bases over 1.5
+118 · CASHED · ACTUAL 2
St. Louis Cardinals
Burleson already showed you what he can do to this pitching staff — three balls into the right-field seats Monday night. I'm not chasing the home run number off one big game, but the total bases line is a different animal, because that outburst isn't sitting on nothing.
His expected slugging this year is .541 against an actual .480 — the quality of contact has been ahead of the results, and Monday was the results catching up. He's 9 for 24 with three homers over his last week, he's left-handed, and he's walking into a right-field porch that's 314 feet away against a right-hander who has already surrendered ten home runs to lefties this season and gets hit hard when he does — 41.8 percent hard-contact allowed.
Warren's sinker in particular has been hit at a .299 clip. One extra-base hit clears this number, and Burleson is squarely the hitter and the matchup to expect it from tonight.
GARY'S PICK
LUIS GARCIA JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +126
LOST · ACTUAL 0
New uniform, same swing. Garcia Jr. came over from Washington at the deadline and has been the best bat in this lineup since — seventeen hits in his last fifty-three at-bats, four home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, with a six percent whiff rate that tells you the contact is real and not just balls finding grass. He's left-handed, he's staring at a porch in right that's built for exactly his swing, and the pitcher on the mound tonight has a real hole for it — left-handed hitters have touched Pallante for a .731 OPS and six home runs this year, close to double what right-handers have done against him. Pallante will get his outs tonight, I think, mostly off the other seven hitters in this lineup. Garcia Jr. is the one I'd expect to make him pay somewhere along the way.
Luis Garcia Jr.
Total Bases over 1.5
+126 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
New York Yankees
New uniform, same swing. Garcia Jr. came over from Washington at the deadline and has been the best bat in this lineup since — seventeen hits in his last fifty-three at-bats, four home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, with a six percent whiff rate that tells you the contact is real and not just balls finding grass.
He's left-handed, he's staring at a porch in right that's built for exactly his swing, and the pitcher on the mound tonight has a real hole for it — left-handed hitters have touched Pallante for a .731 OPS and six home runs this year, close to double what right-handers have done against him. Pallante will get his outs tonight, I think, mostly off the other seven hitters in this lineup. Garcia Jr.
is the one I'd expect to make him pay somewhere along the way.
THE LONG SHOT
ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5
MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +355
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Whenever this one gets underway tonight, Burleson steps in with the loudest recent history in the building — two nights ago, in this same ballpark, he put three balls into the right-field seats and drove in six. Strip away the header number and the process backs it up: a .541 expected slugging mark that's actually about sixty points higher than what he's produced, a .385 expected wOBA, 93.7 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play. The one thing that tempers the hot-streak read is that all three of those homers landed in a single game, so by games-with-a-homer he's only cleared this number once in his last fifteen — the counting stat undersells how consistently hard he's been hitting the ball. He's left-handed, and Will Warren has given up ten home runs to lefties against five to righties with a .782 OPS, his sinker and sweeper both getting hit for expected numbers a starter can't live with. Burleson swings from exactly the side Warren is most exposed to. I'll take the number.
Alec Burleson
HR over 0.5
+355 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
St. Louis Cardinals
Whenever this one gets underway tonight, Burleson steps in with the loudest recent history in the building — two nights ago, in this same ballpark, he put three balls into the right-field seats and drove in six. Strip away the header number and the process backs it up: a .541 expected slugging mark that's actually about sixty points higher than what he's produced, a .385 expected wOBA, 93.7 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play.
The one thing that tempers the hot-streak read is that all three of those homers landed in a single game, so by games-with-a-homer he's only cleared this number once in his last fifteen — the counting stat undersells how consistently hard he's been hitting the ball. He's left-handed, and Will Warren has given up ten home runs to lefties against five to righties with a .782 OPS, his sinker and sweeper both getting hit for expected numbers a starter can't live with.
Burleson swings from exactly the side Warren is most exposed to. I'll take the number.
THE LONG SHOT
SPENCER JONESHR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +525
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Jones has four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and three home runs in his last seven games — the loudest contact-quality read on this whole board right now. He's still a hitter finding his level up here, chasing at a forty-four percent clip, and that swing-and-miss is real risk. But the ball is coming off his bat at 92.8 mph on average this past week, and a left-handed pull hitter with that kind of exit velocity plays well into this yard's short right-field corner. Pallante has otherwise been hard to square up — a 5.7 percent barrel rate against him is genuinely stingy, and he leans on a sinker-slider mix that keeps the ball on the ground. But his one real platoon leak is left-handed power: a .731 OPS and six home runs allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to right-handers. Jones is a lefty currently squaring up everything he touches. I like the number here.
Spencer Jones
HR over 0.5
+525 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
New York Yankees
Jones has four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and three home runs in his last seven games — the loudest contact-quality read on this whole board right now. He's still a hitter finding his level up here, chasing at a forty-four percent clip, and that swing-and-miss is real risk. But the ball is coming off his bat at 92.8 mph on average this past week, and a left-handed pull hitter with that kind of exit velocity plays well into this yard's short right-field corner.
Pallante has otherwise been hard to square up — a 5.7 percent barrel rate against him is genuinely stingy, and he leans on a sinker-slider mix that keeps the ball on the ground. But his one real platoon leak is left-handed power: a .731 OPS and six home runs allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to right-handers. Jones is a lefty currently squaring up everything he touches.
I like the number here.
THE LONG SHOT
LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5
MLBNew York Yankees· +450
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Garcia got traded from Washington to New York two days ago and hasn't cooled off for a second — seventeen hits in his last fifteen games, four of them home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and a six percent whiff rate that says he's barely missing anything he decides to swing at. He's left-handed, and Pallante's one real platoon leak is exactly that side of the plate — a .731 OPS and six homers allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to righties, with barrel and hard-hit numbers that otherwise say he's tough to square up. St. Louis is sending him out in front of a lineup with seven left-handed bats tonight, and Garcia is swinging as well as any of them right now. I want this number.
Luis Garcia Jr.
HR over 0.5
+450 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
New York Yankees
Garcia got traded from Washington to New York two days ago and hasn't cooled off for a second — seventeen hits in his last fifteen games, four of them home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and a six percent whiff rate that says he's barely missing anything he decides to swing at. He's left-handed, and Pallante's one real platoon leak is exactly that side of the plate — a .731 OPS and six homers allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to righties, with barrel and hard-hit numbers that otherwise say he's tough to square up.
St. Louis is sending him out in front of a lineup with seven left-handed bats tonight, and Garcia is swinging as well as any of them right now.
I want this number.

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