Cardinals at Yankees
O/U 8.5 · RL Yankees -1.5
Yankees ML-158
CONF 58%
LLostFinal 3-1
The read
Rubber game in the Bronx tonight, first pitch just after seven, warm out with the wind blowing across the field. Both teams have already shown each other exactly who they are. Monday the Cardinals put up a crooked number and Alec Burleson hit three balls into the right-field seats. Tuesday they didn't score at all, and a twenty-one-year-old kid named Lombard, barely a week into the big leagues, homered to win it for New York. One of those two games is the real story. I think we find out which one tonight.
Let me be honest about the part that worries me: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher here. He's the guy St. Louis has counted on all season, hitters haven't done much against him, and he's kept the damage small over his last three starts throwing hard with a sinker and a slider that gets swings and misses. But he has one weak spot, and it's exactly the wrong one in this ballpark — left-handed hitters have done real damage against him, and the Yankees are running out a lineup full of them in a stadium with that short porch in right. Will Warren has the same problem, only worse — lefties have hit him hard and taken him deep plenty. The difference is who's batting against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee injury this afternoon, already traded Lars Nootbaar away at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks near the bottom of the order. Throw out Monday's outburst and this offense has barely scored at all over its last ten games, including that goose egg last night.
So I keep landing on the late innings. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three haven't given up a run all series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who got hammered Monday while recording a single out, George Soriano, who's already coughed up two leads in a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them because both got traded away. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it might not even earn, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, after losing most of its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I just don't think he gets to keep it. I'm on the Yankees to win outright — you're laying a bit extra and I won't pretend it's a bargain. It's just the right side of a one-run game.
The full analysis
Rubber game in the Bronx, 7:05, a warm night with the wind pushing right to left, and both of these clubs walk in having already shown the other exactly what they are. Monday the Cardinals hung thirteen and Alec Burleson put three into the right-field seats. Tuesday they got shut out, and a twenty-one-year-old kid named Lombard homered in his first big-league week to win it 2-0. Somebody's version of this series is the truth. I think we find out tonight.
Let me be straight about the part that gives me pause: Andre Pallante is the better pitcher in this game. He's the arm St. Louis has leaned on all year, he's holding hitters to a .299 expected mark, and he's allowed five earned runs across his last three starts working at 95 with a sinker and a slider that misses bats. He also has one soft spot, and it's the one that matters in this building — left-handed hitters have gotten to him for a .731 OPS and six home runs, and the Yankees are sending seven of them to the plate in a park with a 314-foot porch. Will Warren has the same leak, only deeper: a .782 mark and ten homers surrendered to lefties, a sinker and a sweeper that hitters are squaring up. The difference is who's standing in against him. St. Louis lost Jordan Walker to a knee this afternoon, already shipped Lars Nootbaar out at the deadline, and is hitting César Prieto and Jimmy Crooks in the bottom third. Take away Monday's outburst and this offense has scored 2.2 runs a game over its last ten, including a zero last night.
So I keep coming back to the seventh, eighth and ninth. New York has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Fernando Cruz, and those three have handed over nothing but zeroes in this series. St. Louis has Ryne Stanek, who gave up three earned recording one out on Monday, George Soriano with two blown saves inside a week, and no Dustin May or JoJo Romero behind them anymore because both got traded. That's a bullpen being asked to protect a lead it may not deserve, on the sixth day of a road trip, in a getaway game, at 3-7 over its last ten. Pallante keeps this close. I don't think he keeps it his. Yankees moneyline at -158 — it's not a bargain, and I'm not pretending it is. It's the right side of a one-run game.
About this analysis
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- Board stored August 5, 2026 at 12:45 PM ET.
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Props on this game
5Alec BurlesonOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+118
WActual 2
Burleson already showed you what he can do to this pitching staff — three balls into the right-field seats Monday night. I'm not chasing the home run number off one big game, but the total bases line is a different animal, because that outburst isn't sitting on nothing.
His expected slugging this year is .541 against an actual .480 — the quality of contact has been ahead of the results, and Monday was the results catching up. He's 9 for 24 with three homers over his last week, he's left-handed, and he's walking into a right-field porch that's 314 feet away against a right-hander who has already surrendered ten home runs to lefties this season and gets hit hard when he does — 41.8 percent hard-contact allowed.
Warren's sinker in particular has been hit at a .299 clip. One extra-base hit clears this number, and Burleson is squarely the hitter and the matchup to expect it from tonight.
Luis Garcia Jr.OVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases+126
LActual 0
New uniform, same swing. Garcia Jr. came over from Washington at the deadline and has been the best bat in this lineup since — seventeen hits in his last fifty-three at-bats, four home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, with a six percent whiff rate that tells you the contact is real and not just balls finding grass.
He's left-handed, he's staring at a porch in right that's built for exactly his swing, and the pitcher on the mound tonight has a real hole for it — left-handed hitters have touched Pallante for a .731 OPS and six home runs this year, close to double what right-handers have done against him. Pallante will get his outs tonight, I think, mostly off the other seven hitters in this lineup. Garcia Jr.
is the one I'd expect to make him pay somewhere along the way.
Alec BurlesonOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+355
LActual 0
Whenever this one gets underway tonight, Burleson steps in with the loudest recent history in the building — two nights ago, in this same ballpark, he put three balls into the right-field seats and drove in six. Strip away the header number and the process backs it up: a .541 expected slugging mark that's actually about sixty points higher than what he's produced, a .385 expected wOBA, 93.7 mph average exit velocity with three barrels in his last eighteen balls in play.
The one thing that tempers the hot-streak read is that all three of those homers landed in a single game, so by games-with-a-homer he's only cleared this number once in his last fifteen — the counting stat undersells how consistently hard he's been hitting the ball. He's left-handed, and Will Warren has given up ten home runs to lefties against five to righties with a .782 OPS, his sinker and sweeper both getting hit for expected numbers a starter can't live with.
Burleson swings from exactly the side Warren is most exposed to. I'll take the number.
Spencer JonesOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+525
LActual 0
Jones has four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and three home runs in his last seven games — the loudest contact-quality read on this whole board right now. He's still a hitter finding his level up here, chasing at a forty-four percent clip, and that swing-and-miss is real risk. But the ball is coming off his bat at 92.8 mph on average this past week, and a left-handed pull hitter with that kind of exit velocity plays well into this yard's short right-field corner.
Pallante has otherwise been hard to square up — a 5.7 percent barrel rate against him is genuinely stingy, and he leans on a sinker-slider mix that keeps the ball on the ground. But his one real platoon leak is left-handed power: a .731 OPS and six home runs allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to right-handers. Jones is a lefty currently squaring up everything he touches.
I like the number here.
Luis Garcia Jr.OVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+450
LActual 0
Garcia got traded from Washington to New York two days ago and hasn't cooled off for a second — seventeen hits in his last fifteen games, four of them home runs, an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and a six percent whiff rate that says he's barely missing anything he decides to swing at. He's left-handed, and Pallante's one real platoon leak is exactly that side of the plate — a .731 OPS and six homers allowed to lefties against a .595 mark to righties, with barrel and hard-hit numbers that otherwise say he's tough to square up.
St. Louis is sending him out in front of a lineup with seven left-handed bats tonight, and Garcia is swinging as well as any of them right now.
I want this number.
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