Sports Picks Archive — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· +106

Noon baseball at Camden Yards, 88 degrees and the wind pushing out to center, and the Orioles come out of a deadline that was supposed to bury them with a chance to sweep. Two nights, two wins, and Baltimore is a half-game off a wild card spot they had no business being near. The Angels fly out tonight either way. But first they have to hand the ball to Ryan Johnson. That's the bet. Johnson is carrying a 7.63 ERA and it isn't bad luck dressed up as a number — the stuff has left him. Every pitch in the bag is down two-plus miles an hour from a year ago, and the sinker he leans on a quarter of the time is getting hit .411 with a whiff rate you could count on one hand. Hitters from both sides of the plate are slugging .860-plus against him. He hasn't finished five innings in four of his last six turns, which means the middle of this game belongs to an Angels bullpen that shipped out Zeferjahn, lost Soriano at the deadline, put Bachman on the shelf this week, and emptied Anderson, Joyce and Fermin into last night's loss. There is no version of this afternoon where Los Angeles keeps the Orioles under four unless the baseball gods take the day off. And the Angels have to answer. They've scored one, two, three, one and two in their last five, Trout is playing through a knee that hasn't stopped barking, and the bottom of that order has been an automatic out for two weeks. Brandon Young throws a slider hitters miss half the time they swing at it; he's given up six earned in his last nineteen innings. I'll say the honest part out loud — Baltimore is resting bats on getaway day and their high-leverage arms have all worked back-to-back, and a 3-2 game is exactly how favorites like this get beat. That's why I'm not laying a bigger price. But I'm getting plus money to say the only real starting pitcher in the ballpark wins by two. Take the Orioles at -1.5.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -161

Getaway day at Great American, 12:40 first pitch, and the Athletics come in dragging a seven-game losing streak into a building where the Reds have won ten of fourteen. Cincinnati already has this series in hand at 2-0, both by a single run, both decided late. Third time through in three days, and the team that keeps finding the last punch is the one wearing red. The case starts with Mason Barnett. The stuff is real — 95 out of the hand, a slider hitters swing through a third of the time, a sweeper that gets chased — and the underlying numbers say he's pitched better than his 4.85. But he's walked fourteen in under thirty innings and hasn't finished a sixth inning yet, and the left-handed bats he'll see today have done damage against him: Elly turning around from the left side, Bleday, Rodriguez. Get him to ninety pitches by the fifth and this becomes a bullpen game, and that's where it turns. Oakland's relievers have surrendered twenty-three earned in twenty-seven and two-thirds over the past week. Cincinnati's have allowed seven in twenty-three and two-thirds, with Burke and Antone bridging to Pagán and neither Butler nor Soderstrom seeing much to hit once the starter's gone. Behind that, the A's are running out an order missing Kurtz, Langeliers and Rooker, with a bottom third that hasn't slugged in two weeks. Andrew Abbott is the reason this isn't priced higher, and I won't pretend otherwise. He's a 5.08 pitcher in this ballpark against 2.89 everywhere else, he walked five his last time out, and Lawrence Butler and Tyler Soderstrom can end an at-bat with one swing in a park this small. I'm not asking him to dominate. I'm asking him to hand off a game that's still within reach, because Cincinnati has won nine of its last fourteen by two runs or less and clearly believes it wins every night right now. That's why the moneyline and not the run line — this is a one-run team playing one-run games, and I'll take the side that keeps closing them. **Reds ML -161.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Guardians· +114

**Gary's Take — Mets ML +114** One-ten in the afternoon at Progressive Field, sun on the third-base line, and Cleveland walks out for the last game of a six-game homestand already down two in this set. The Mets flew in at 49-66 and have spent two days making the standings look like a typo — six runs Tuesday, six more Wednesday in ten innings. Now they get the getaway game, and the market has them at plus money. I'll take that. Start with the man on the mound for Cleveland. Foster Griffin is carrying a 3.06 ERA into his first start in a Guardians uniform, and that number is doing a lot of lying. His expected ERA sits at 4.07, the swing-and-miss has drained out of him — thirty-nine percent whiffs in one start, then sixteen, sixteen, eighteen — and he's got seven strikeouts in his last nineteen innings while getting knocked around for six earned by Atlanta in his last time out. He's a left-hander whose problem is right-handed hitters: .246 against, thirteen home runs, a .690 OPS. New York is sending eight righty or switch bats up there today. Across from him, Nolan McLean is throwing the best ball of his year — ninety-six with the four-seamer, twenty-three punchouts across his last three starts, six innings every single time he's taken the ball since June. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in six straight. Then look at what Cleveland has to score with. This is a club sitting near the bottom of the league in runs, averaging 3.3 over its last ten, and today's card is missing Kwan and Adell on the back end of a night game. José Ramírez is in there but he's still finding his hands after the hamate surgery — one hit in his last ten at-bats and soft contact when he does connect. Behind the starter, the Cleveland pen has coughed up thirteen runs in twenty-four innings this week, Cade Smith is coming off sixty pitches in two days and a blown save, and Festa took the loss last night. The Mets' relievers have surrendered one earned run in three games. I've got the better arm, the better pen, the lineup with the platoon in its favor, and a team that's already proven this week it can score in this ballpark — and I'm getting paid to take it. Mets moneyline, plus 114.

**Gary's Take — Mets ML +114**

One-ten in the afternoon at Progressive Field, sun on the third-base line, and Cleveland walks out for the last game of a six-game homestand already down two in this set. The Mets flew in at 49-66 and have spent two days making the standings look like a typo — six runs Tuesday, six more Wednesday in ten innings. Now they get the getaway game, and the market has them at plus money. I'll take that.

Start with the man on the mound for Cleveland. Foster Griffin is carrying a 3.06 ERA into his first start in a Guardians uniform, and that number is doing a lot of lying. His expected ERA sits at 4.07, the swing-and-miss has drained out of him — thirty-nine percent whiffs in one start, then sixteen, sixteen, eighteen — and he's got seven strikeouts in his last nineteen innings while getting knocked around for six earned by Atlanta in his last time out. He's a left-hander whose problem is right-handed hitters: .246 against, thirteen home runs, a .690 OPS. New York is sending eight righty or switch bats up there today. Across from him, Nolan McLean is throwing the best ball of his year — ninety-six with the four-seamer, twenty-three punchouts across his last three starts, six innings every single time he's taken the ball since June. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in six straight.

Then look at what Cleveland has to score with. This is a club sitting near the bottom of the league in runs, averaging 3.3 over its last ten, and today's card is missing Kwan and Adell on the back end of a night game. José Ramírez is in there but he's still finding his hands after the hamate surgery — one hit in his last ten at-bats and soft contact when he does connect. Behind the starter, the Cleveland pen has coughed up thirteen runs in twenty-four innings this week, Cade Smith is coming off sixty pitches in two days and a blown save, and Festa took the loss last night. The Mets' relievers have surrendered one earned run in three games. I've got the better arm, the better pen, the lineup with the platoon in its favor, and a team that's already proven this week it can score in this ballpark — and I'm getting paid to take it. Mets moneyline, plus 114.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· -123

Getaway day at American Family Field, the roof and the sun and a first-place club trying to finish what it started. Milwaukee has won two straight over Pittsburgh by identical 4-2 scores, and today the Brewers hand the ball to Dustin May for his first turn in their uniform. The Pirates are on the eighth and final game of a road trip, playing a day game on the heels of a night game, with a lineup that hasn't put much on the board in two weeks. Start with the arm the Pirates have to solve. Braxton Ashcraft has been the story of Pittsburgh's season and he throws 97 with a curveball hitters swing through better than a third of the time, but he's been getting hit since the calendar turned. He gave up five earned in five innings to this same club a month ago, he's surrendered thirteen home runs to left-handed bats this year, and Milwaukee stacks lefties through the order — Turang, Mitchell, Yelich, Hamilton — in a yard that plays a touch to the hitter. His last time out was clean and short. Before that came a run of starts where the fastball caught too much plate. The other direction is where the Pirates run out of answers. They're averaging 3.3 runs over their last ten, Horwitz is buried in a slump, Reynolds hasn't found a barrel in two weeks, and Endy Rodríguez is essentially carrying the offense by himself. May is an unknown in his debut and the back of Milwaukee's bullpen has been asked to work on consecutive days, and I'll grant that Milwaukee's own lineup is thinner today than it has been. But this is the best record in baseball at home against a club that's been outscored all trip, and at a shade over even money I'll take the better team and let them close it out. Brewers moneyline.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cubs· -108

Getaway day at Wrigley, 1:20 local, wind drifting out toward left and the Cubs riding the high of a three-game sweep of the champs. The North Siders are 66-49 and playing the best baseball in the league right now. I'm laying the price on the 54-61 club anyway, because the guy on the mound for Toronto is the best pitcher anyone will see today. Dylan Cease has a 2.41 ERA with the underlying numbers to back it — a 2.77 xERA, 174 strikeouts across 119.1 innings, a four-seamer at 97.4 and a slider hitters miss 43.1 percent of the time. Four earned runs in his last twenty-one innings. What matters most in this specific building is that he has no side to attack: lefties are hitting .174 with a .568 OPS against him, righties .195 with a .506. So Crow-Armstrong, Busch and Conforto get no platoon relief, and the righty core behind them gets less. He's held this franchise to a .178 average across eight career meetings. When he leaves around a hundred pitches, Toronto hands it to Louis Varland at 1.09 and Tyler Rogers at 1.59. The other dugout sends out a lefty carrying a 5.52 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, forty walks in a hundred and one innings and 42.5 percent hard contact allowed — and right-handed bats are hitting .281 off him. That's the honest risk on this ticket, because Hoerner is at .407 over his last seven, Suzuki and Swanson are squaring balls up, and the breeze is blowing toward the pull side for all of them. Toronto's own lineup is thin without Guerrero and this is a day game after a ten-inning night in Houston. I'm not calling it comfortable. I'm calling it four runs being enough when Cease is the one throwing, and Chicago needing a lot of things to go right to get there. Blue Jays moneyline at -108.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +111

Getaway day at T-Mobile, first pitch at 4:10 with the sun out and a series tied at one after two nights that had nothing to do with baseball and everything to do with grudges. Five hit batters, two ejections, a manager screaming about warnings that never came. That's the backdrop. What's in front of it is a Seattle lineup card that tells me how this club feels about a day game after a night game with Tampa coming in tomorrow. Look at who's hitting for the Mariners. No Raleigh. No Naylor. Ward, Arozarena, Canzone, Rodríguez, and then a bottom four of Weston Wilson, Jhonny Pereda, Leo Rivas and Colt Emerson that's a combined 5-for-37 over the last week. This is an offense already down to 3.8 runs a game across its last ten, and today it's playing shorthanded against a left-hander whose curveball has held hitters to .183 with a 48 percent chase rate. Framber Valdez isn't the pitcher he was — the sinker is getting squared up at .313 — but he doesn't need to be. He needs the bottom of the order to be what it looks like, and he threw seven innings of two-run ball his last time out. The other side of it is a Detroit club that's been putting up 7.6 a game over ten and 8.4 over five, with Dingler 4-for-8 with two homers in this series alone, McKinstry at .385 over fifteen days, Keith at .368, Torkelson and Torres both squaring balls up. Bryce Miller's ERA is pretty, but he's surrendered a home run in five straight starts, his whiff rate has slid to 20 percent, his last three outings sit at 4.96, and his team has lost five of his last six. Both starters live in the five-to-six inning range, which hands this to the bullpens — Detroit's at 4.56 over a week, Seattle's at 7.71 with Muñoz, Speier and Bazardo all up yesterday and Speier ejected out of Wednesday's mess. The ballpark keeps the number low, so this is a three-or-four-run game. I think Detroit gets there and Seattle doesn't, and I'm getting paid plus money to say so. **Tigers ML +111**

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Marlins· -158

— Marlins at Braves, 7:15 in Atlanta Thursday night at Truist, getaway game, and one clubhouse is a lot lighter than the other. The Braves have won seven straight and fourteen of nineteen since the break, sitting at 69-45 with the second-best record in the sport. The Marlins are limping into the last stop of a seven-game road trip having been held to two runs and then one run by this same team on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nobody's fresh — both sides played last night — but only one of them has been walking off the field happy. Janson Junk is the reason I'm here. Righties have done nothing against him all year, hitting .185 with a .566 OPS. Left-handed bats have hit .318 with an .857 OPS and taken him deep six times in 192 at-bats. Look at what Atlanta is putting in the box tonight: Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith, Jarvis — six left-handed hitters in a nine-man lineup, with Riley and Acuña breaking it up. This is the matchup Junk is worst equipped to survive, and it isn't theoretical. The last time he faced these Braves, on May 20, he gave up eight earned runs on eight hits with two home runs across five innings. Olson has five homers in his last fifteen days, Riley has been hitting the ball harder since the break than he did all first half, and Yastrzemski has been squaring everything he touches. The other half is Miami's problem. Martín Pérez gets a lineup that runs right-handed almost all the way down — and Pérez has held right-handed hitters to .205 with a .647 OPS, leaning on a changeup they're swinging through a third of the time. This is also not the Marlins lineup that started the month. Hicks, Berry, Norby and Hinds are all gone in the last four days, and what's left is Navarreto, Sanoja, Ruiz and a just-recalled Agustín Ramírez trying to scratch out runs against a pitcher who threw seven scoreless innings on one hit last time out. If it gets to the bullpens, Atlanta's arms carry a 2.78 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP against Miami's 4.39 and 1.39. Better starter matchup, deeper lineup, better relief, at home, against a club that's been shut down twice this week already. Braves moneyline at -158.

— Marlins at Braves, 7:15 in Atlanta

Thursday night at Truist, getaway game, and one clubhouse is a lot lighter than the other. The Braves have won seven straight and fourteen of nineteen since the break, sitting at 69-45 with the second-best record in the sport. The Marlins are limping into the last stop of a seven-game road trip having been held to two runs and then one run by this same team on Tuesday and Wednesday. Nobody's fresh — both sides played last night — but only one of them has been walking off the field happy.

Janson Junk is the reason I'm here. Righties have done nothing against him all year, hitting .185 with a .566 OPS. Left-handed bats have hit .318 with an .857 OPS and taken him deep six times in 192 at-bats. Look at what Atlanta is putting in the box tonight: Baldwin, Olson, Harris, Yastrzemski, Dominic Smith, Jarvis — six left-handed hitters in a nine-man lineup, with Riley and Acuña breaking it up. This is the matchup Junk is worst equipped to survive, and it isn't theoretical. The last time he faced these Braves, on May 20, he gave up eight earned runs on eight hits with two home runs across five innings. Olson has five homers in his last fifteen days, Riley has been hitting the ball harder since the break than he did all first half, and Yastrzemski has been squaring everything he touches.

The other half is Miami's problem. Martín Pérez gets a lineup that runs right-handed almost all the way down — and Pérez has held right-handed hitters to .205 with a .647 OPS, leaning on a changeup they're swinging through a third of the time. This is also not the Marlins lineup that started the month. Hicks, Berry, Norby and Hinds are all gone in the last four days, and what's left is Navarreto, Sanoja, Ruiz and a just-recalled Agustín Ramírez trying to scratch out runs against a pitcher who threw seven scoreless innings on one hit last time out. If it gets to the bullpens, Atlanta's arms carry a 2.78 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP against Miami's 4.39 and 1.39. Better starter matchup, deeper lineup, better relief, at home, against a club that's been shut down twice this week already. Braves moneyline at -158.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -121

Getaway night at Kauffman, the Royals up two in a three-game set they've spent all season owning, and Minnesota walks in on a four-game skid with a manager already saying out loud that his club can't put anyone on base. Bailey Ober against Michael Wacha, 7:30 first pitch, light wind blowing right to left across a ballpark that has never done a hitter any favors. Ober is the reason I'm here. The velocity is gone — the fastball that lived at 90 last year is sitting 88, and when a pitcher loses two ticks the whole arsenal moves with it. His changeup is his most-used pitch and hitters are doing serious damage on it. The slider is getting squared up. The sinker has been batting practice. Only the sweeper is still doing its job, and he throws it barely one pitch in ten. Then look at how the damage splits: left-handed bats have hurt him all year, eleven home runs' worth, while righties have been mostly harmless. Kansas City is sending six lefties and a switch-hitter to the plate tonight, and the group that's faced him before is hitting near .300 against him with three balls out of the yard. That's not a hunch, that's a matchup Minnesota can't reshuffle its way out of. Wacha comes the other direction with a long history of quieting this particular lineup, a better ERA in this ballpark than anywhere else, and four earned runs total across his last three turns. Meanwhile the Twins' order is thin — Buxton's out, Royce Lewis is carrying the whole thing by himself, and behind him it's a string of guys hitting under .200 for two weeks. My hesitation is honest: Kansas City's bullpen has been an open wound lately, and if this game reaches the seventh with a one-run lead I'll be watching through my fingers, hoping the ball goes to Lynch and Schreiber and nobody else. But a cold visiting offense, a home lineup built to attack exactly what tonight's starter can't hide, and a pitcher's park is enough at this number. **Royals moneyline at -121.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· +104

### White Sox +1.5 (-125) Thursday night at Fenway, 91 degrees, the wind drifting out toward center, and a ballpark that has spent two straight nights celebrating. Boston has won seven in a row, nine straight series, and 25 of 28 since the Fourth of July, and they have spent this week treating Chicago like a tune-up act — 14-2 on Tuesday, 4-0 on Wednesday. Getaway game, sweep on the table, and the market has responded exactly how you'd expect: it has priced this Red Sox club like the best team in baseball. That's where I get off the bus. Here's what the run line is actually asking. It's asking a 4.4-run-per-game offense — a club built on pitching and defense, a club whose season is stitched together out of 4-2 and 3-2 and 5-4 — to beat a first-place team by two or more. And it's asking that on a night when Ranger Suarez takes the ball for the first time in Boston red, coming off a groin strain, an illness, and three straight outings that ended before the fifth: two and two-thirds, four, four and two-thirds. He is not going deep. Nobody thinks he's going deep. That means four-plus innings of relief for a bullpen that already went to work Wednesday, against a lineup carrying Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, and Miguel Vargas — three bats sitting on 23 or more homers apiece. Willson Contreras is out of the lineup tonight, too, which trims a bat that's been on base all series. And when I look under the hood on this Boston hot streak, the paint is thinner than the shine. Rafaela is hitting .287 and slugging .475 while his contact says .248 and .364. Durbin, Monasterio — same story, every one of them cashing checks their batted balls haven't earned. That's not an indictment of the team; they're good, they're at home, and Luis Castillo has a 5.06 ERA and gives up loud contact, so I understand why the number is where it is. But a heater is not a forecast. Laying a run and a half at this price means paying full retail for three weeks of everything breaking right. I'd rather buy the run and a half at -125 and make them win this one clean.

### White Sox +1.5 (-125)

Thursday night at Fenway, 91 degrees, the wind drifting out toward center, and a ballpark that has spent two straight nights celebrating. Boston has won seven in a row, nine straight series, and 25 of 28 since the Fourth of July, and they have spent this week treating Chicago like a tune-up act — 14-2 on Tuesday, 4-0 on Wednesday. Getaway game, sweep on the table, and the market has responded exactly how you'd expect: it has priced this Red Sox club like the best team in baseball. That's where I get off the bus.

Here's what the run line is actually asking. It's asking a 4.4-run-per-game offense — a club built on pitching and defense, a club whose season is stitched together out of 4-2 and 3-2 and 5-4 — to beat a first-place team by two or more. And it's asking that on a night when Ranger Suarez takes the ball for the first time in Boston red, coming off a groin strain, an illness, and three straight outings that ended before the fifth: two and two-thirds, four, four and two-thirds. He is not going deep. Nobody thinks he's going deep. That means four-plus innings of relief for a bullpen that already went to work Wednesday, against a lineup carrying Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, and Miguel Vargas — three bats sitting on 23 or more homers apiece. Willson Contreras is out of the lineup tonight, too, which trims a bat that's been on base all series.

And when I look under the hood on this Boston hot streak, the paint is thinner than the shine. Rafaela is hitting .287 and slugging .475 while his contact says .248 and .364. Durbin, Monasterio — same story, every one of them cashing checks their batted balls haven't earned. That's not an indictment of the team; they're good, they're at home, and Luis Castillo has a 5.06 ERA and gives up loud contact, so I understand why the number is where it is. But a heater is not a forecast. Laying a run and a half at this price means paying full retail for three weeks of everything breaking right. I'd rather buy the run and a half at -125 and make them win this one clean.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks

Thursday night under the closed roof at Chase Field, the Padres and Diamondbacks wrap up a heated four-game set. Arizona owns the series edge, but I’m backing San Diego to earn the split. Kohl Drake is the pressure point. His 8.06 xERA, 52.5% hard-hit rate and brief outings create a favorable matchup for a Padres lineup stacked with right-handed bats. San Diego should force Arizona into its bullpen early, and that unit has allowed 12 earned runs over its past seven games. Walker Buehler brings plenty of volatility, but his underlying numbers are better than his 5.18 ERA suggests, and the Padres have the superior relief corps waiting behind him. My play is the Padres moneyline.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

ZACH NETOTOTAL BASES UNDER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -176

Neto is hitting .146 over his last fifteen games, and the underlying numbers explain why — he's whiffing on 44 percent of his swings and chasing pitches out of the zone 45 percent of the time recently. That's not bad luck, that's a hitter who's lost the strike zone. He's running into Brandon Young, who's been the best pitcher in this series by a wide margin — 2.84 ERA and eighteen strikeouts over his last three starts — and who's been generating more swing and miss with every outing. This is a short-price lay, but Neto chasing everything against a pitcher who punishes chasers is as clean a fade as this board offers.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN JOHNSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +134

Johnson hasn't gotten through five innings in either of his last two starts — 4.1 against Milwaukee, 3.1 against the Giants — and it's not bad luck, it's diminished stuff. Every pitch in his arsenal is sitting two-plus miles an hour below where it was a year ago, the sinker he throws a quarter of the time is getting hit .411, and the walks have crept up right along with the hits. This Orioles lineup just strung together back-to-back multi-homer wins and it's noon at Camden with the wind blowing out and the temperature near 90. There's no incentive for anybody to let him work through trouble in a getaway-day matinee, and his own recent track record says he won't get the chance to. Fifteen outs is the ask — he hasn't cleared it in two straight tries.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +112

De La Cruz has drawn a walk in eleven of his last fifteen games — a real shift in approach, not a hot streak. He's a switch-hitter, so he's not conceding anything to Mason Barnett based on which arm he's facing, and Barnett has walked fourteen batters in barely thirty innings this year while working his way back into a rotation spot after a season mostly in relief. A patient hitter against a pitcher who's had trouble finding the zone is the most straightforward matchup on this board. I don't need a hit here. I need one more missed edge from a pitcher who's missed plenty of them.

GARY'S PICK

ANDREW ABBOTTPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +100

Abbott is a different pitcher at Great American than everywhere else — 5.08 ERA in eleven home starts against 2.89 on the road, and that home sample averages right around five innings, not six. His last turn in this ballpark was five innings and five walks. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed seven earned runs in twenty-three and two-thirds innings over the last week, which is exactly the pen you let finish a game rather than stretch a struggling lefty through the sixth on a getaway afternoon with a sweep in reach. Eighteen outs is the exception for him at home this year, not the expectation.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN MCLEANPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBNew York Mets· -150

McLean gets the day game off the best stretch of pitching he's thrown all year. Over his last three starts he's worked 18.1 innings and allowed four earned runs — a 1.96 ERA — with 23 strikeouts against six walks, and he hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last six turns, a run that stretches back to June 30. July alone was a 1.78 ERA across five starts. He's also a strict six-innings-and-out pitcher right now, exactly 6.0 innings in five of his last six outings, which caps how much damage he can even allow in a start by design. The lineup he's facing today has no recorded at-bats against him and is playing without Steven Kwan and Jo Adell for the getaway game. I'm not betting against that form. Nolan McLean, under 2.5 earned runs, minus 150.

GARY'S PICK

NATHANIEL LOWEH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +115

Nathaniel Lowe was still a Cincinnati Red on Monday. Cleveland got him ahead of the deadline, activated him Tuesday, and he has been the best bat in this lineup since he put the uniform on — nine-for-25 with six RBI over his last week, .340 across his last fifteen games with eight RBI in that stretch. He's a left-handed bat, and Nolan McLean has actually been the more hittable pitcher against lefties than righties this year — a .701 OPS and nine home runs allowed in 271 at-bats, against a .549 mark facing right-handers. Lowe's also been a strong day hitter by track record. Hot bat, favorable platoon, day game — getting to two combined hits, runs, and RBI looks more likely than not. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs, plus 115.

GARY'S PICK

ENDY RODRIGUEZHITS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -157

Rodríguez is the one Pirates bat that's looked dangerous in any light the last two weeks — two homers and three RBIs in his last seven games, and in this series alone he's five for ten with two more home runs. He's a switch-hitter, so he sees Dustin May from the left side tonight, and May has allowed a .750 OPS and five home runs to lefties this year against a much tamer .585 mark from righties. May is walking into a brand new clubhouse for his first start in a Brewers uniform, and the hottest hitter on the other side happens to be swinging from the side that's given him trouble all season. I want Rodríguez to keep doing what he's been doing.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN YELICHHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -155

Yelich has been cold the last two weeks, .200 over his last fifteen with just one extra-base knock, and it would be easy to read that as a fade. But this is a day game, and Yelich in day games this season is a different hitter — near .300 with an OPS pushing .900 over a hundred-plus at-bats, not a small sample. And the pitcher across from him is Braxton Ashcraft, who has been excellent against right-handed bats and something close to batting practice for lefties — thirteen home runs allowed to left-handed hitters this year against four to righties, a .761 OPS. Yelich is a lefty who sees the ball well under the sun, and one knock is what I need against an arm that's struggled with hitters standing on his side of the plate all year.

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CEASEK'S OVER 7.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -117

I already like Cease's price on the moneyline, and the strikeout number backs up why. He's punched out at least nine in four of his last six turns, with a 43.1 percent whiff rate on the slider and 28.3 on the four-seamer, both plus-elite marks, and the whiff rate has climbed his last four times out — 30, 27, 33, 40 percent. The two starts that missed this number were both exactly seven strikeouts, not misses so much as a coin landing the wrong way. This Cubs lineup has real swing-and-miss in it too — Suzuki chasing at a 29 percent clip lately, Swanson missing 31 percent of his swings, Crow-Armstrong at 24 — and not one of the nine has ever faced him. I'll take the arm with a 97 mile-an-hour fastball and a wipeout slider over 7.5 at a number close to even money.

GARY'S PICK

DAVID PETERSONK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +110

Peterson's ERA the last three starts reads great, but strikeouts are a different swing entirely, and his stuff was never built to miss bats. His sinker gets whiffs 15.2 percent of the time, his four-seamer 14.8 — modest for either pitch. Take out one eight-strikeout night against the Yankees and he's sat at 2, 3, 2, 4, 3 across his other five turns, and this Toronto lineup isn't a strikeout-prone group to begin with. What swing-and-miss he does have comes almost entirely off the slider and curveball, two pitches he throws barely a third of the time combined. Plus money for a modest strikeout total against a pitcher who has to earn every one of them through his offspeed stuff and not the fastball. I'll take it.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE MILLERPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -107

Miller's ERA looks like a front-of-rotation arm. His innings log looks like a guy on a leash. He's cleared six innings exactly once all year, and his last three starts went 5.1, 5.1, and 5.2 — Seattle isn't letting him see a lineup a third time when it turns south. Detroit's rolling in with the hottest bat in the sport right now, 8.4 runs a game over its last five, and Miller's allowed a home run in five consecutive starts. He doesn't need to get shelled to come out in the fifth, that's just where his season lives. Under 17.5 outs matches how this year has actually gone for him, not the number sitting on top of the board.

GARY'S PICK

ZACH MCKINSTRYHITS OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -115

McKinstry's at .385 over his last fifteen days and it isn't empty average — three-for-three in Tuesday's blowout, a hit in every game he's actually played through this series. He's a left-handed bat against a right-hander in Miller who's lost his swing-and-miss stuff over the last month, whiff rate sliding from the high twenties down to single digits two starts ago, and who came out of his last turn with zero strikeouts in five-plus innings. One hit is a low bar for a bat running this hot against a pitcher who isn't putting anybody away clean right now.

GARY'S PICK

MUNETAKA MURAKAMITOTAL BASES OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -135

Murakami's the one bat still doing damage in a series that's gotten away from Chicago — four homers and nine RBIs over his last fifteen games, and he's picked up a hit in thirteen of those fifteen. Suarez has actually been more hittable against lefties than righties this year, a .757 OPS allowed to left-handed hitters against .569 to righties, and Murakami is exactly that matchup. This is the shortest number on the board for him and the player on this roster least dependent on what happens around him to get there.

GARY'S PICK

ANDRUW MONASTERIOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -107

Monasterio has produced a hit, a run, or an RBI — usually more than one of the three — in twelve of his last fifteen games. That contact-first profile doesn't need to change against Castillo, who's letting hitters square him up at a 41.7% hard-hit clip this season. Boston's lineup has been scoring in bunches, six runs a game over the last ten, and a table-setter getting his name on the stat sheet is the least surprising outcome of the night, not the upset.

THE LONG SHOT

WILYER ABREUHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +345

Abreu has put four balls over the fence in his last three games and crossed 20 homers for the season doing it. That's not noise, that's a swing finding the barrel right now, and he's done damage in this exact series already. Tonight's pitcher is Luis Castillo, making his first start in a White Sox uniform after the trade, with a 41.7% hard-hit rate and a 9.7% barrel rate allowed this year — a shaky debut assignment against a lineup that hasn't let up on anybody in three weeks. The price is built for something like one homer in nine games. This version of Abreu is clearing that more often than that right now.

GARY'S PICK

JANSON JUNKPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBMiami Marlins· -144

Junk hasn't finished five and a third innings in six straight starts. Every one of those outings has stopped at fifteen outs or fewer, three of them ending at exactly five innings and three shorter than that. Tonight he walks into the most left-handed lineup he's faced all season, six lefties in the nine spots, against the same Atlanta team that put eight earned runs on him across five innings back on May 20th. Nothing about this matchup points to him stretching out deep into the game. Fifteen and a half outs is a total this stretch and this lineup both argue under.

GARY'S PICK

MATT OLSONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +100

Olson has five home runs over his last fifteen days and strung together a run of three straight games with one at one stretch this season. He's also left-handed, and left-handed hitters are the ones who've done real damage to Janson Junk all year — a .318 average, an .857 OPS, six home runs in fewer than two hundred at-bats. Olson isn't just any lefty catching that matchup, he's the one in the middle of the order hitting the ball hardest right now. Even money for two total bases from a hitter in his form, against a pitcher built to be hurt by exactly his swing, is a number worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL WACHAPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -140

Wacha's last three starts: one earned run, two, one. Four across nineteen innings is a 1.89 ERA over that stretch, and it's not an isolated hot streak — nine career starts at Kauffman have produced a 3.03 ERA against 3.87 everywhere else he's pitched, and eleven career games against this Twins organization have held them to a .216 average. Minnesota walked into this series off a pair of walk-off losses in Seattle, dropped the opener here Wednesday, and is doing it all without Buxton in center. A pitcher who's found something over his last month, working in the building where he's historically been even better, against a lineup that's missing a piece and already cold — that's a quiet night on the mound. Under 2.5 earned runs for Michael Wacha.

GARY'S PICK

ISAAC COLLINSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +150

Collins is a switch hitter, which means tonight he gets to hit from the same side that's given Ober trouble all year. He's five for seventeen with an OPS near 900 over the last week, a real jump from where his two-week trend sits, which tells me the form is heading in the right direction right now, not fading. Seven of his last fifteen games have already produced multiple total bases on this exact number, and that's before factoring in who's on the mound tonight. Plus money on a hitter heating up against the weak side of Ober's platoon split is a number I like. Over 1.5 total bases for Isaac Collins.

GARY'S PICK

KOHL DRAKEPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +104

Kohl Drake hasn't finished five innings in any of his three big league starts, and his last two both ended at exactly four. That's not bad luck — the underlying contact he's allowing is loud, hitters squaring him up well beyond what a rookie can survive deep into games. San Diego just hung nine runs on this same pitching staff two nights ago and brings a lineup that skews toward his tougher platoon side. I don't need Drake to get shelled to win this, I just need Arizona to make the same call they've made his last two turns through. Under.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +119

Jackson Merrill has been the best hitter in this series for either side — nineteen hits over his last fifteen games, three home runs, an OPS pushing a thousand. He hits left-handed, and in his brief look this year Kohl Drake has been considerably more hittable against lefties than righties. Small sample on Drake's end, but it fits everything else Merrill has done to pitching lately. I want the extra bases, not just a single.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +600

Matt Olson has gone deep five times in his last fifteen days, with three straight games homering in the middle of that stretch, and his own teammates were saying earlier this week that a real second-half power run is in play for him. This isn't a name I like because the number is long — he's actually doing it right now. Then he draws Janson Junk, who left-handed bats have turned into batting practice all season: .318 average, .857 OPS, six home runs in 192 at-bats, the widest platoon split belonging to any starter on the mound tonight. Olson swings left. Truist Park plays neutral, the wind isn't doing anything dramatic either way, so this comes down to a hot power bat against the exact matchup he's built to punish. That's where I want to be at plus money.

THE LONG SHOT

ROYCE LEWISHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +450

I like Kansas City to win this game, but Lewis is doing something separate from the rest of that Minnesota lineup right now — ten hits in his last twenty-three at-bats, two homers, a slugging line over 1.200 for the week, while almost everyone hitting around him has gone cold. That's not a lineup carrying him, that's one bat playing a different sport than his teammates. He's right-handed, and Wacha's numbers this year actually run against the grain of what you'd expect — he's been hit for more power on a rate basis by right-handed batters than lefties, even with fewer of them stepping in against him. Lewis already has three barreled balls in his recent sample with an average exit velocity over 93. This isn't a bet that needs Minnesota's night to go well, either — he went deep twice against Seattle last week in a pair of losses, production that showed up regardless of the final score. **Royce Lewis over 0.5 home runs, +450.**.

THE LONG SHOT

MIKE YASTRZEMSKIHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +800

Mike Yastrzemski has hit the ball harder than anyone else in this lineup over the last two weeks — 95 mph average exit velocity, two barrels out of just ten balls in play, and he already has two home runs in his last seven games. That's a bat that's squaring everything up right now. He gets the same matchup that makes the whole left side of Atlanta's order dangerous tonight: Janson Junk has been hit at an .857 clip by left-handed hitters this season, and Yastrzemski hits left-handed. It's a small sample, I'll say that plainly, but it's a loud one, and at this price I don't think the market has caught up to how well he's actually swinging it.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON MERRILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +610

Merrill's the hottest bat in this lineup right now — three homers and eleven RBI over his last fifteen days, and the contact backs it up, better than 91 miles an hour average exit velocity with a barrel mixed in. Kohl Drake is three starts into a brand new organization, and in that small sample hitters are running a .384 wOBA against him with a 52.5 percent hard-hit rate allowed. His fastball is sitting 91.6 — Merrill doesn't need to sell out to get to it. Three starts is three starts, I won't pretend that sample is deep. But between the form and the matchup, I like the number at plus-610.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE STOWERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +900

Kyle Stowers is the one Miami bat doing real damage right now — four home runs in his last fifteen days, nobody else on this roster is close, backed up by a 93.5 mph average exit velocity. He's left-handed, and while Martín Pérez has held lefties to a .231 average, they've still taken him deep four times in 108 at-bats, right in line with the kind of pop Stowers has been showing. The rest of this Miami lineup has been shuffled and beaten up since the trade deadline, but that's not Stowers's story tonight — he's swinging the bat well independent of everything else going on in that clubhouse, and at this price I want the one hot hand on a cold roster.

THE LONG SHOT

JAC CAGLIANONEHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +525

The thing driving this whole card tonight is Ober's platoon split, and Caglianone's swing sits right in the middle of it — eleven homers allowed to left-handed bats this season against three to right-handers, and he's one of six lefties Kansas City is sending up there. He's already gone deep three times in his last fifteen games, tied for the best rate on this board, and the underlying contact backs it up: 91.9 mph average exit velocity recently, over half his balls in play qualifying as hard-hit, and an expected slugging number that's actually sitting above his real one, which tells me the quality of contact is ahead of the results, not behind them. Ober's fastball has dropped to 88 this year, and that decline is what makes his changeup — his most-used pitch, and the one getting hurt hardest by opposing hitters — that much more hittable once the setup pitch stops playing. Kauffman is a pitcher's park and I'm not going to pretend this is automatic. But a lefty with real power sitting on the exact weakness in tonight's opposing arm, at plus-500, is a bet worth making. **Jac Caglianone over 0.5 home runs, +525.**.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +750

Arenado's carrying real thump into tonight — three home runs in his last fifteen days, two of them in the last week alone, and it shows in the quality of contact, two barrels in his last seventeen batted balls. Walker Buehler has allowed a home run to nearly one in twenty right-handed at-bats this year against roughly one in forty-four for lefties, and the pitch getting hurt most is his four-seamer — hitters are batting .375 against it. Arenado's a right-handed bat walking into the version of Buehler that's actually been getting hit. Plus-750 is a fair number for where his swing is right now.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +650

Schwarber hasn't gone deep in a long stretch and the average has cratered right along with it — that's real, and I'm not pretending the last two weeks have looked good. But a home run prop is a bet on one swing tonight, not on the last fifteen games, and the pitcher standing across from him has been handing out mistakes all year. Miles Mikolas is getting hit at a .293 clip by left-handed batters with a home run every nineteen at-bats or so against them, and Schwarber leads off, which means he sees Mikolas early and sees him often before Washington can even think about turning to the bullpen. Mikolas opened this month with an ERA over eight, and his last three starts have him handing out close to five earned runs a night — the barrel and hard-hit numbers against him say this isn't bad luck, it's a guy leaving pitches where hitters can drive them. Add a warm night at Citizens Bank Park with the wind blowing out to center, in a park that already plays small, and the ball carries. I don't need the old Schwarber to show up for two weeks running. I need one mistake from a pitcher who has been serving them up all month, and Schwarber's entire game is built to make a pitcher pay for exactly one.

THE LONG SHOT

MICHAEL MASSEYHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +600

Massey already beat this exact pitching staff once this week — the go-ahead homer off Minter on Wednesday that put Kansas City up two games in this series. He's a lefty walking into the same gap that's hurt Ober all season, eleven homers surrendered to left-handed bats against three to righties, and his approach fits it: his whiff rate over his recent stretch is down around nine percent, about as low as anyone in this lineup, which means when Ober's changeup and slider are around the zone, Massey is putting the bat on them instead of missing. The exit velocity underneath that recent contact, 90.7 mph average, says there's some pop behind it too. He's 3 for 7 with a homer already in this series. Two homers in his last fifteen games isn't an eye-popping number on its own, but I'd rather back a lefty bat that's already solved this specific pitching staff this week than lean purely on a season-long rate. **Michael Massey over 0.5 home runs, +600.**.

THE LONG SHOT

TIM TAWAHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +750

Tawa's been the story of this series for Arizona already — two home runs in four games against this exact Padres staff, and his last fifteen days back it up, three barrels on just twenty-four batted balls. Same case as Arenado: Buehler's home run rate is worse against right-handers than lefties, and his fastball has been the pitch to hurt him all year. Tawa chases more than I'd like, thirty-five percent this stretch, so the swing-and-miss risk is real. But the power's legitimate and the matchup lines up. I'll take plus-750.

THE LONG SHOT

SALVADOR PEREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +575

Perez doesn't need a favorable matchup to hit one out — they handed him a crown at Kauffman this week for being the franchise's home run king, and right now he's the hottest power bat on this roster, full stop. Three homers in his last fifteen games, four separate games with one over that stretch — the best rate on the whole board tonight. I'll be straight about the matchup: he's right-handed, and Ober's damage this season has come from the left side of the plate, not the right, so the platoon angle that makes some of his teammates attractive doesn't apply to him. What I'm trusting instead is recent form and track record — a bat that's produced regardless of who's on the mound, against a starter who's lost velocity and is getting hurt across his whole arsenal, not just against one side. He is chasing more than I'd like lately, expanding the zone on pitches he shouldn't, but Perez has built a career on doing damage on pitches he shouldn't swing at. **Salvador Perez over 0.5 home runs, +575.**.

Research

145

CUT LISTARI tonight
Kohl Drake
Starts tonight for ARI — 8.06 xERA behind a 4.85 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ CIN
Athletics 1-7 in Mason Barnett's last 8 starts
Seven straight losses with Barnett on the mound — that's not bad luck at this point, that's a pattern. Whatever's going wrong for Oakland right now, it's showing up specifically on the nights he starts.
TEAM RECORDPIT @ MIL
Pirates 7-1 in Braxton Ashcraft's last 8 starts
Seven wins in his last eight trips to the mound is a strong number for Ashcraft's team, but pair it with how rough his last three starts have actually looked and that record is carrying more than just him — Pittsburgh's been picking him up on nights he hasn't had it.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ PHI
Phillies 6-1 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 7 starts
Winners in six of his last seven starts, and tonight he's got the venue that's turned him into a different pitcher altogether — Citizens Bank Park is where Sanchez does his best work by a wide margin.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIA @ ATL
Braves are 7-2 vs Marlins this season
Atlanta consistently finds ways to beat Miami, taking seven of nine meetings this year. Coming off a tight win and returning to Truist Park, the Braves are primed to keep controlling this rivalry.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHW @ BOS
Red Sox are 5-0 vs White Sox this season
Five straight wins capped by a shutout shows Boston completely owns this matchup. Playing at Fenway against a Chicago squad with zero answers against them makes this another clear Boston edge.
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ PHI
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
House feasts on left-handed pitching, and he's getting one tonight — hitting third means he sees Sanchez right after the top of the order turns over, not stuck waiting on it. Sending a lefty out to slow down the middle of this lineup runs straight into the one bat built to beat exactly that.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAD-TO-HEADWSH @ PHI
Phillies are 8-3 vs Nationals this season
Despite dropping the last meeting, the Phillies have dominated this season series. Returning home gives Philadelphia the perfect setup to assert their head-to-head control over Washington.
STREAKNYM @ CLE
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Six straight unders and this offense hasn't come within three runs of the total in any of them — averaging under five runs a game against lines that have mostly sat near eight. Tonight's number comes down a touch to 7.5, but that's still well above what these games have actually been producing.
P final total 19 vs 7.5
STREAKMIA @ ATL
ATL have won 7 straight
Seven in a row and outscoring people by 18 over that stretch — this isn't a team sneaking out close ones, they're handling business. Miami walks into a tough spot tonight.
P team won 3-11
PLATOON EDGEWSH @ PHI
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Crews leads off, so he's in the box against Sanchez before the lefty settles in, and he'll see him more than anyone else in that order tonight. Sanchez is opening his night against the one hitter built to give him trouble.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Bryan Reynolds: .505 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dustin May
Reynolds looks like he's missing on timing more than getting fooled, but May's not the pitcher I'd pick for him to find it against — he's given Reynolds trouble all year already. Cold bat, tough matchup, that's not a combination I like for a bounce-back tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's a different hitter against right-handers than lefties, and leading off means he sees Ashcraft more than anybody else in that lineup tonight. That's the look he's done the most damage with all year, and he gets first crack at it.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENTOR @ CHC
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Fifteen-plus innings out of that Toronto pen in just three games, with four different arms already pulling double duty — that's a bullpen running on fumes walking into tonight.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ BAL
Orioles 6-2 in Brandon Young's last 8 starts
Six wins in his last eight starts, and Baltimore's actually riding a five-game winning streak behind him right now — Young's turned into a pitcher this team wins with.
TEAM RECORDMIN @ KC
Twins 6-2 in Bailey Ober's last 8 starts
This isn't Ober carrying the record by himself — the lineup's building leads early enough that the bullpen inherits them instead of ties. On the road in Kansas City tonight, Minnesota looks comfortable being ahead by the middle innings.
TEAM RECORDSD @ ARI
Padres 6-2 in Walker Buehler's last 8 starts
San Diego's not leaning on Buehler to be perfect every time out — the whole roster's clicking, getting to opposing pitching early. In Arizona tonight, this looks like a club that expects to control the game from the jump.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ BAL
Angels 2-6 in Ryan Johnson's last 8 starts
Two wins in his last eight outings is a brutal number for any pitcher to carry, and it's not just team context dragging it down — Johnson's own last three starts have been just as rough. The gap between his ERA and his underlying contact numbers suggests some of that ugliness has been earned, some of it hasn't.
TEAM RECORDDET @ SEA
Mariners 2-6 in Bryce Miller's last 8 starts
Only two wins to show for Seattle in his last eight starts, and Miller's personal run has been just as ugly — four straight losses of his own on the mound. Team record and individual form are pointing the same way here.
TEAM RECORDCHW @ BOS
Red Sox 6-2 in Ranger Suarez's last 8 starts
Boston's found a rhythm with Suarez going — early leads, clean defense, a pen that closes instead of firefights. Hosting Chicago tonight, this is a club that sets the tone early rather than chasing it.
TEAM RECORDWSH @ PHI
Nationals 2-6 in Miles Mikolas's last 8 starts
Washington isn't cashing in behind Mikolas — at-bats aren't turning into runs, and that leaves the bullpen protecting nothing. On the road against Philly tonight, the bats need to actually finish what they start instead of leaving it all on him.
HEAD-TO-HEADMIN @ KC
Royals are 8-4 vs Twins this season
Kansas City has held the upper hand over Minnesota all year, winning eight of 12 meetings. Back on their home field, the Royals have an established pattern of making key plays to edge out the Twins.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ CLE
Travis Bazzana (bats L) hits 1st against Nolan McLean (RHP)
Bazzana's a lefty bat who eats right-handed pitching, he's leading off, and McLean throws right-handed — that's his swing meeting its best matchup with the most looks at it too. About as clean a fit as this lineup offers.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ KC
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Michael Wacha (RHP)
Larnach against a right-hander is a different hitter than his season line suggests, and leading off puts him in the box first, before Wacha's made any in-game adjustment. That matchup keeps recurring all night since the order turns back over to him.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIL
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Dustin May (RHP), batting 2nd
Lowe's season number blends both sides of the plate, but batting second against a right-hander tonight is the version of him that's actually done real damage. May's getting the better half of Lowe, not the average one his line describes.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
STREAKOAK @ CIN
OAK have lost 5 straight
Five straight losses and outscored by nearly a month's worth of runs over that stretch — this isn't a team losing close ones, it's been a beatdown. And Barnett's on the mound tonight, the same arm they've lost behind seven straight times.
P team lost 5-6
HEAT CHECKCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.091 OPS in Last 15 Days
Two weeks of everyday at-bats is enough to trust this is a real change, not a hot weekend. Whatever the total-bases number is tonight, a bat running this hot shouldn't have much trouble clearing it.
P 2-for-7, 2 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ BAL
Zach Neto: .435 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Young
Neto's cold, .435 the last couple weeks off a .741 season, and that's not enough at-bats to call it broken. What makes it stick tonight is Young throws right-handed, already the tougher half of Neto's own splits — no easy way out of it.
P 2-for-5, 5 TB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Cardinals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Braves. 2.95 xERA this season.
HEAD-TO-HEADPIT @ MIL
Pirates are 6-3 vs Brewers this season
Pittsburgh's won this season series so far, but Milwaukee got one back in the last meeting and gets another crack at it tonight — a series lead with a fresh grievance sitting on the other side.
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Jackson Merrill: .997 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill is seeing the ball like a beach ball right now, posting a .997 OPS over his last 15 games. Taking that hot bat into Arizona makes his total bases line a very attractive play tonight.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
STARTER FORMTOR @ CHC
David Peterson: 1.45 ERA over his last 3 starts
Peterson's been a different pitcher his last three trips out — sharp, clean, missing bats — and the price still hasn't caught up to it. Only wrinkle: his first innings this year haven't matched that recent form, so however well he's throwing lately, tonight's opening frame is worth watching on its own.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
HR THREATMarlins @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Matt Olson has gone deep five times in his last fifteen days, with three straight games homering in the middle of that stretch, and his own teammates were saying earlier this week that a real second-half power run is in play for him. This isn't a name I like because the number is long — he's actually doing it right now.
P 1 HR — 2-for-3, 6 TB, 2 BB
BATTER VS ARMMIN @ KC
Bobby Witt Jr. vs Bailey Ober: .429
Witt's 12-for-28 with a homer off Ober lifetime, and he's walking in white hot at .944 the last two weeks. That's not a matchup Ober wants to see again tonight.
P 3-for-4, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIA @ ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr. (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot
Most right-handed bats want the opposite-hand look, but Acuna's the exception — he's actually done more damage against right-handers this year. Hitting second means he's getting close to the most at-bats of anyone in that lineup tonight, all against the side he already prefers.
P 2-for-5, 8 TB
PLATOON EDGECHW @ BOS
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Cleanup is where a lineup cashes in what the top of the order sets up, and Grichuk's the one bat built to beat a lefty tonight — the gap between how he hits lefties and righties backs it up completely. Sending Suarez out to slow this lineup down runs right into him.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ ARI
Manny Machado
Manny Machado (3B) bats 3rd in the SD @ ARI game today with a .722 OPS and .212 AVG. He gets a prime spot tonight against Kohl Drake, who is struggling with an 8.06 xERA. Must-add for any manager looking for top-tier upside against a heavily struggling pitcher.
HR THREATAthletics @ Reds
Sal Stewart
Gary's Take Stewart is the hottest bat on this field. Four home runs and a .954 OPS over his last fifteen games, and the contact backs it up — he's averaging north of 91 mph off the bat with multiple barrels in that stretch, so this isn't empty average.
P 1 HR — 2-for-4, 5 TB
STARTER FORMPIT @ MIL
Braxton Ashcraft: 7.71 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ashcraft's last three starts have looked nothing like the pitcher his season line describes — traffic on the bases and runs to match, three times running. His team keeps winning behind him regardless, but the arm itself has clearly taken a step back lately.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
HR THREATMets @ Guardians
Chase DeLauter
Gary's Take DeLauter is the one I keep coming back to. He's barreling the ball and not chasing much of anything outside the zone right now, which tells me the swing's in a good place regardless of what the batting average says on a given week.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATAthletics @ Reds
Elly De La Cruz
Gary's Take De La Cruz swings left-handed against a right-hander, and that's the side where Barnett has actually been hit hard — an .857 OPS and three homers allowed in limited action. De La Cruz is doing real damage right now, seven hits in his last twenty-one at-bats, and his underlying numbers match the results rather than suggesting he's due for a comedown.
P 1 HR — 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ CHC
Nico Hoerner: .966 OPS in Last 15 Days
Hoerner wasn't a middle-of-the-order threat coming into this stretch, so a run like this says something's actually changed in how he's seeing the ball. Tonight's total-bases number is about as modest as these get — one clean single probably handles it.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHMIN @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ BAL
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Ryan Johnson (RHP), batting 1st
Beavers is a lefty who's actually done his damage against right-handers, and leading off against Johnson tonight keeps him squarely in that window the whole game. His season line is selling him short of what shows up tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATTwins @ Royals
Royce Lewis
Gary's Take I like Kansas City to win this game, but Lewis is doing something separate from the rest of that Minnesota lineup right now — ten hits in his last twenty-three at-bats, two homers, a slugging line over 1.200 for the week, while almost everyone hitting around him has gone cold. That's not a lineup carrying him, that's one bat playing a different sport than his teammates.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Rays (played), Sun 8/9 at Cardinals (proj). 2.4 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .422 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
Marsh looks like a guy fouling off pitches he'd normally drive, not one who's lost the ability to drive them, and Mikolas is exactly the matchup — right-handers — that Marsh has owned all season regardless of the slump. This feels like the night it turns for him.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Pirates (played), Sun 8/9 vs Twins (proj). 2.6 xERA this season.
STREAKTOR @ CHC
TOR games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Four straight unders for Toronto and the shortfall's been real — better than three runs off the total in that stretch on average. Add a bullpen that's already been leaned on hard the last few nights, and tonight's 7.5 still sits well above where these games have actually been landing.
P final total 5 vs 7.5
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
The other half of Henderson's Tuesday game — Jones took the ball on the road at the Brewers, and that result is locked in either way now. Sunday flips him home against the Mets to close out the week. 3.33 xERA is the highest number of any arm in this group still carrying the plan-around read. Hold for the home Sunday start, but this is the thinnest number of the group wearing that label — keep an eye on it.
HR THREATMarlins @ Braves
Mike Yastrzemski
Gary's Take Mike Yastrzemski has hit the ball harder than anyone else in this lineup over the last two weeks — 95 mph average exit velocity, two barrels out of just ten balls in play, and he already has two home runs in his last seven games. That's a bat that's squaring everything up right now.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB
COOLING OFFMIA @ ATL
Otto Lopez: .534 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Martin Perez
Lopez's cold stretch reads like timing, not talent, and Perez being left-handed is about as friendly a matchup as a struggling hitter could ask for — that's the look Lopez has crushed all year. Perez has to be careful not to leave anything over the plate tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
TOMORROWOAK @ BOS
Jack Perkins: 6.72 ERA vs 4.01 xERA
Nearly a three-run gap between what's actually happened and what the contact quality says should have — his hard-hit and barrel numbers are both ordinary, so this has been about balls finding grass, not balls getting crushed. That kind of gap tends to close, and a lineup that puts the bat on the ball like Boston's is a fair spot for it to start.
BULLPENPIT @ MIL
Milwaukee Brewers pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Thirteen innings out of the Brewers pen over their last three games with four arms already doing extra work — that's a group that's been asked to cover a lot of ground in a short stretch.
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIL
Garrett Mitchell: .391 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Braxton Ashcraft
This is a rough two weeks against a season that's actually been fine, and the matchup works in his favor — right-handers are the side Mitchell's handled well all year. If there's a spot for him to snap out of it, a favorable look like this one is it.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
BALLPARKWSH @ PHI
Cristopher Sanchez owns a 1.28 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.48 everywhere else
There's home cooking, and then there's this — Sanchez pitching to a completely different level at Citizens Bank Park than he does anywhere else, with opponents batting just .201 off him there. He gets that same mound again tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
HR THREATWhite Sox @ Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu
Gary's Take Abreu has put four balls over the fence in his last three games and crossed 20 homers for the season doing it. That's not noise, that's a swing finding the barrel right now, and he's done damage in this exact series already.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKTOR @ CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.164 OPS in Last 15 Days
He didn't need a hot streak to be dangerous — the power was already banked over a full season, this stretch just adds more of it. Tonight's total-bases number is set at the high end for a reason; the book already knows what he's doing right now.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
REGRESSIONLAA @ BAL
Ryan Johnson: 7.63 ERA vs 5.3 xERA
There's real separation between what Johnson's ERA says and what his actual contact allowed says — over two full runs of it. The results have been ugly, but the quality of contact against him hasn't been quite as bad as that ERA makes it look.
P 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
COOLING OFFWSH @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .583 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Miles Mikolas
Schwarber's just down against a season that's been excellent, and some pullback toward that level was coming regardless of who's on the mound. Mikolas isn't a real trap for him over a full season, so this looks more like a great hitter snapping back than a matchup holding him down again.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKSD @ ARI
Ryan Waldschmidt: 1.119 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ryan Waldschmidt is crushing the ball lately, boosting his OPS to 1.119 over his last 34 plate appearances. He's swinging with absolute confidence and making high-impact contact every time up. Taking a 0.5 total-bases line on a hitter this dialed in provides massive value tonight in Arizona.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYM @ CLE
Brayan Rocchio: .440 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Rocchio's been cold, .440 the last two weeks off a .707 season, but that reads more like bad luck than a broken swing. McLean throws right-handed, which happens to be the pitching Rocchio's actually handled best all year — good spot for this to turn.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
BULLPENWSH @ PHI
Washington Nationals pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Fifteen innings out of the Nationals bullpen in three games is a heavy workload, though it's concentrated in fewer arms than some of the other tired pens around the league tonight — worth knowing who's actually fresh if this one gets tight late.
CLOSER WATCHCHW @ BOS
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).
COOLING OFFTOR @ CHC
Michael Busch: .579 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dylan Cease
Michael Busch's .579 OPS over the last 15 days (63 PA) trails his .748 season mark, down 0.169. Tonight he draws RHP Dylan Cease — his weaker side: a .748 OPS vs RHP across 301 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFNYM @ CLE
Jose Ramirez: .478 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Ramirez is fighting two things at once tonight — results that don't match his .720 season, and a right-hander, already the tougher half of his own splits. That's a harder climb out than the slump alone.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Nationals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Blue Jays (proj). 2.95 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Cubs (played), Sun 8/9 at Diamondbacks (proj). 2.97 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Mariners (played), Sun 8/9 at Giants (proj). 3.11 xERA this season.
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ ARI
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) bats 1st in SD @ ARI, carrying a .280 AVG and .751 OPS. He faces Kohl Drake tonight, who is struggling with an 8.06 xERA. Stream him if you need leadoff production targeting a weak starter.
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/3
Logan Webb
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rangers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Tigers. 3.82 xERA this season.
STARTER FORMDET @ SEA
Framber Valdez: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Valdez has been bleeding hits and runs for three straight starts now — enough of a stretch that it's hard to wave off as bad luck. Whatever's off for him right now has shown up every single time out lately.
P 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams: 1.108 OPS in Last 15 Days
A season built on real power already made him a threat before these two weeks, so this surge sits on top of a bat that was never safe to overlook. Tonight's total-bases number looks light for a hitter doing this much damage lately — reads like it was written for a quieter hitter.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ CIN
Lawrence Butler: .904 OPS in Last 15 Days
Butler's running hot, close to a three-hundred-point OPS jump over a stretch too short to call real. Doesn't matter much tonight though — the bar's a single, and a guy seeing it this well should get there without needing the streak to be permanent.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TWO STARTSCleveland Guardians — week of 8/3
Joey Cantillo
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 vs Mets (played), Sun 8/9 at White Sox. 3.98 xERA this season.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ BAL
Pete Alonso (bats R) draws Ryan Johnson (RHP), batting 2nd
Alonso's actual numbers favor right-handed pitching, so a same-side matchup that would be tough for most right-handed bats is the better one for him. Batting second gets him there early too, before Johnson's had much of a look at that lineup.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIN @ KC
Royce Lewis: .938 OPS in Last 15 Days
Twelve homers already on the year says the raw power isn't the surprise here — this stretch is more a return to form over a real run of games than a couple of hot nights. Tonight's total-bases number is a standard ask against where he's been the last two weeks.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKCHW @ BOS
Jarren Duran: .811 OPS in Last 15 Days
Fifteen homers on a season line that modest is an odd split — the power was already there, it just wasn't syncing with the rest of his approach until lately. Tonight's total-bases number is a standard ask, nothing more, for a bat that's finally putting it all together.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWLAD @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 5.04 ERA vs 7.16 xERA
Kelly is playing with fire, stranding runners despite getting hit hard to the tune of a 7.16 xERA and 45.4% hard-hit rate. Facing the Dodgers tomorrow is the ultimate reality check. Expect his luck to run out in a big way against Los Angeles.
FANTASY PICKUPSSD @ ARI
Gavin Sheets
Gavin Sheets (DH) bats 7th in SD @ ARI, holding a .709 OPS and .215 AVG. He gets to face Kohl Drake, who comes in struggling with an 8.06 xERA tonight. Stream him if you are looking for a DH spot-start against a struggling pitcher.
HEAT CHECKDET @ SEA
Colt Keith: .981 OPS in Last 15 Days
Eight homers is a modest total to lean on, so this jump is more about contact and consistency than souvenirs, and it's come in a lighter workload — I'd call it newer rather than fully proven. Tonight's total-bases number is set high regardless; the book's already leaning into the hot stretch itself.
P 3-for-5, 4 TB
STARTER FORMLAA @ BAL
Ryan Johnson: 9.95 ERA over his last 3 starts
Johnson didn't have much of a season line to lean on already, and his last three starts have made things worse, not better — three outings in a row telling the same story rules out a fluke. Pair that with how much better his contact numbers read underneath the ERA, though, and the picture's a little more complicated than the raw results alone suggest.
P 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
TOMORROWNYM @ PIT
Zac Thornton: 2.88 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
That 58-point gap between what hitters are actually doing against him and what the contact says they should be doing is a loud signal, and over 40% hard-hit with a double-digit barrel rate means the damage is there even if it hasn't shown up on the scoreboard yet. Pittsburgh is exactly the kind of lineup that finally cashes in on contact that loud.
PLATOON EDGEOAK @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson (bats R) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Stephenson actually hits right-handers better even though this reads as a same-side matchup on paper, and batting cleanup means Barnett's already shown his hand to three hitters by the time Stephenson's up. That's the split that's carried him all year.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ CIN
Tyler Stephenson: 1.013 OPS in Last 15 Days
Stephenson's four-figure OPS over two weeks isn't holding at that level, but nine homers already banked this season says the pop behind it is real. Tonight's bar needs an extra-base hit, well within reach for a swing that's working right now.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEOAK @ CIN
JJ Bleday (bats L) draws Mason Barnett (RHP), batting 3rd
Bleday's a lefty who does his best work against right-handers, and hitting third tonight gets him an early crack at Barnett before the lineup's turned over. Straightforward platoon math working in his favor.
P 2-for-3, 5 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKOAK @ CIN
At Great American Ball Park, Andrew Abbott pitches to a 5.08 ERA
Abbott's actually been the better pitcher away from home this year — a 2.89 ERA on the road against a 5.08 mark at Great American Ball Park. Tonight he's got the tougher of his two home/road looks.
P 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 8/6
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/6 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
TOMORROWCOL @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.44 ERA vs 5.19 xERA
Leahy's ERA has been running well ahead of what his actual contact allowed supports — better than a run and a half of separation. He gets an early look against Colorado tomorrow, and a number that hot usually has some correcting left to do.
REGRESSIONLAA @ BAL
Wade Meckler: .307 AVG vs .261 xBA
Meckler's average has been running ahead of what his contact quality supports, and there's enough at-bats behind it now to trust that as signal, not noise. I'd expect the more honest version of this bat in Baltimore tonight.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
STARTER FORMDET @ SEA
Bryce Miller: 4.96 ERA over his last 3 starts
Miller's stuff carried him to a strong season number, but the last three starts haven't looked like that pitcher — more traffic, more runs in. It's a real dip, not a total collapse, but three straight starts in that direction is enough to take seriously.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Jake Mangum: .298 AVG vs .254 xBA
This has held up over 331 plate appearances, too big a sample to wave off as a hot streak, and both the average and the power number are running ahead by about the same amount — that says real barrel feel, not just puffed-up luck. Still, the contact hasn't fully caught up to the results, and I'd lean on that gap starting to close some tonight.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Tommy White
White's hitting second for Oakland tonight, but a .585 OPS out of a table-setting spot means the average isn't buying you anything else — no thump behind it, nothing from walks propping it up. A .266 hitter with that little juice is an empty batting average. The lineup card says he belongs in the 2-hole; the OPS says he hasn't earned it. Cut him.
COOLING OFFOAK @ CIN
Eugenio Suarez: .494 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Mason Barnett
Suarez's cold stretch isn't even that steep on its own, just a small window that happens to line up with a right-hander — already the tougher half of his year. The matchup's doing more work against him than the slump number shows by itself.
P 1-for-2, 2 TB, 2 BB
RUNNING GAMENYM @ CLE
Cleveland Guardians like to run — Luis Torrens (41% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Cleveland wants to run early and lean on the pressure that puts on a defense, but Torrens throwing out better than four in ten testers is exactly the arm that shuts that plan down. Take the free base away and they're grinding out runs the hard way tonight.
P Cleveland Guardians stole 1 base
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIL
Spencer Horwitz: .270 AVG vs .228 xBA
The average's running way further ahead of expected than the power number is, which says the extra hits have mostly been singles, not doubles and homers — a more fragile kind of overperformance. Over 308 plate appearances, I'd bet the average gives back before the pop does.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFLAA @ BAL
Nolan Schanuel: .564 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brandon Young
Schanuel's dip is mild, barely worth calling a slump off a .735 season, and tonight's matchup doesn't fight him either — Young's a righty, the exact side Schanuel's hit best all year. Clean setup for him to look like himself again.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Luis Robert Jr.
Robert's still hitting third for the Mets tonight, which tells you the org hasn't given up on the tools. The .19 average and .591 OPS tell you the tools haven't shown up all season. A season-long roster spot on a .19 hitter — even in a premium lineup slot — is paying for name and pedigree, not production. Cut him.
REGRESSIONCHW @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .287 AVG vs .248 xBA
The real gap here is on the power side, not the average — the extra value's coming from the hits he does get going for more than the contact quality says they should, over 449 plate appearances. I'd bet the average holds up better tonight than the pop does.
P 2-for-7, 2 TB
REGRESSIONNYM @ CLE
Marcus Semien: .208 AVG vs .246 xBA
Semien's actual average is trailing his contact quality by a real margin at this point in the season, and that's not a couple of unlucky nights — it's a real gap. I'd expect more from this bat in Cleveland than the batting line suggests.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCHW @ BOS
Chase Meidroth: .271 AVG vs .232 xBA
Across 459 plate appearances the edge shows up proportionally in both numbers, so there's no hidden skew — the whole line's just been running a touch hot together. I'd treat the whole line as slightly inflated tonight rather than picking one piece to trust over the other.
P 3-for-5, 9 TB, 2 BB
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Luis Arraez: .324 AVG vs .286 xBA
473 plate appearances is a deep sample, and the gap's actually a touch wider on the power side than the average — that's not empty contact getting rewarded, there's real value the average alone doesn't capture. A pattern this consistent over this much of a season isn't one I'd bet snaps back on schedule tonight.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
STARTER FORMNYM @ CLE
Foster Griffin: 4.74 ERA over his last 3 starts
Griffin's allowed more traffic and more damage his last three times out than his season number lets on. It's a moderate step back, but a consistent one across three straight starts rather than one bad night mixed in with good ones.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
STARTER FORMMIN @ KC
Michael Wacha: 1.89 ERA over his last 3 starts
Wacha's sharpened an already respectable year, and the strikeout numbers behind this run say it's earned, not borrowed — he's putting hitters away, not surviving off weak contact. Minnesota and Kansas City face him tonight with his form running well ahead of where his season number has him settled.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
CLOSER WATCHNYM @ CLE
Cade Smith
Cade Smith owns the ninth for the Guardians — 30 saves this season (next closest: Matt Festa with 1).
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ CHC
Louis Varland
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Tyler Rogers with 3).
CLOSER WATCHDET @ SEA
Andres Munoz
Munoz is the guy at 20 saves, and Dominguez's 12 saves behind him read as banked from earlier in the year, not a fight for tonight's ball — the sheet says no committee. Seattle's the biggest favorite in this group at -124 over Detroit, the kind of number that turns into a lead worth protecting. The one real flag: two outings in three days, and he pitched yesterday — watch for a rest night. Munoz is still the man to roster, but he's carrying the heaviest recent workload of anyone on this list. If Seattle skips him a night, Dominguez is the name with saves already on his ledger to scoop up the ball.
FIRST INNINGPIT @ MIL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of PIT @ MIL
Both sides have kept the first inning quiet most nights lately — Milwaukee's allowed a first-inning run just twice in their last ten games, Pittsburgh three times. May's own first-inning line this year runs a lot hotter than that team trend would suggest, over 20-plus innings of work, so it's not as clean a look as the team totals alone make it seem.
P 1st inning: 0-1 (1 run)
STARTER FORMMIA @ ATL
Martin Perez: 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
Perez came in already having a solid year, and these last three starts are a clear step above even that, with the strikeouts backing it up instead of leaning on soft contact and a good defense. Miami and Atlanta get the version of him operating a tier above what his season line already says tonight.
P 3 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
TOMORROWHOU @ SD
Robbie Ray: 3.08 ERA vs 4.42 xERA
Ray's been outperforming his underlying numbers by better than a run — not a massive gap, but a real one. He gets Houston tomorrow, worth keeping an eye on to see whether that hot number holds up.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Luis Rengifo has decent order placement batting 2nd for San Diego and is in tonight's lineup, but a .234 AVG alongside a mediocre 0.621 OPS simply doesn't move the needle enough to justify a roster spot. CUT
FANTASY PICKUPSWSH @ PHI
Luis Arraez
A .324/.807 bat hitting cleanup is already rosterable on skill, and tonight he draws Miles Mikolas, who's been getting hit hard (5.37 xERA). Contact bat in the 4-hole against a struggling arm is the exact matchup I chase. STREAM tier — any team chasing average should be on Arraez for the WSH-PHI game specifically, tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ BAL
Pete Alonso
Alonso's hitting second tonight, so he's locked into one of the first few spots in the order and set up for extra at-bats over nine innings, and he's doing it against Ryan Johnson, who's running a 5.3 xERA and struggling right now. The .808 OPS tells me the power is still real even with the average parked at .251. This is tagged STREAM, but a bat like this batting second against a pitcher this hittable shouldn't still be sitting on the wire — add him and start him tonight.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
A .636 OPS and a .214 average is the profile of a player who's costing you a roster spot more weeks than he's winning you one — there's no getting around that line. What keeps this from being automatic is that his own dugout hasn't benched him for it: he's still penciled in fourth and he's active again tonight, so somebody over there is still betting on the bat more than the numbers justify. That's real signal, but it's their confidence, not production, and a season-long spot has to get paid back in stat lines eventually, not lineup-card trust. Cut him. Everyday reps and a cleanup spot are covering for a .214/.636 line right now, and that's a bill that comes due — I'm not carrying it on reputation alone.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ CLE
Marcus Semien: .750 OPS in Last 15 Days
Semien's hot stretch is the more modest of tonight's group, which actually makes it easier to trust — no one huge night propping it up, and twelve homers already this year says the pop was already there. Tonight's bar is about as low as it gets.
P 3-for-4, 7 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWLAA @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.53 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Hitters are squaring him up hard without getting the loft to turn it into real damage — a different problem than a pitcher giving up hard contact and barrels both. There's still some fortune propping up an ERA over a run better than the process says it should be, but the Angels haven't been hitting him in the way that actually turns into the loudest outcomes.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHW @ BOS
Ranger Suarez
Streamer vs CHW — 3.38 xERA · 9.5 K/9 · 1.16 WHIP.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Myles Straw
Leadoff means more trips to the plate than anyone else in that lineup, and that's the real argument for the roster spot — not the .634 OPS or the .231 average, both of which are just the least bad of this group. He's back in there tonight, so the at-bats keep coming whether the line has earned them or not. Keep, for now. The lineup spot is carrying more value than the bat is.
HEAT CHECKLAA @ BAL
Jackson Holliday: .852 OPS in Last 15 Days
Holliday's sample here is the deepest look of the night, and the bump's the smallest of the group — that combination reads more like a real step forward than a two-week mirage. Tonight asks more of him, but form holding up over this many looks is built for exactly that.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Miles Mikolas
Starts tonight for WSH — 5.37 xERA behind a 5.67 ERA.
FANTASY PICKUPSWSH @ PHI
Brandon Marsh
Marsh's .278/.763 line hitting sixth is complementary, not a headline, but he's sharing the same soft Mikolas matchup (5.37 xERA, struggling) that makes tonight's WSH-PHI game appealing further up the order too. DEEP tier is the right call — a bench add for deep formats or bare rosters, not a priority where the wire has better options.
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ BAL
Mitch Farris / Sam Bachman
Mitch Farris and Sam Bachman are in a tight committee with just one save apiece. Farris is fully rested after pitch count management (one outing in three days), but as 0 underdogs on the road in Baltimore, game script limits the likelihood of a save chance tonight. Avoid starting LAA arms tonight unless you are completely desperate for a low-probability save dart.
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Ryan Johnson
Starts tonight for LAA — 5.3 xERA behind a 7.63 ERA.
CLOSER WATCHCHW @ BOS
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Grant Taylor tops this committee with 5 saves, closely chased by Bryan Hudson's 4. Taylor is fully rested with just one outing over the last three games, but Chicago is a massive +170 underdog in Boston, making a ninth-inning save spot improbable tonight. Roster Taylor for save volume this week, but lower expectations for a conversion tonight.
TOMORROWTOR @ PHI
José Soriano: 3.29 ERA vs 4.33 xERA
The gap here's the smallest of the bunch — about a run between Soriano's ERA and what his contact quality actually supports — but it's still running in the same hot direction. He draws Philadelphia tomorrow.
TOMORROWATL @ NYY
Tyler Mahle: 5.13 ERA vs 4.07 xERA
Tyler Mahle has been punished by awful luck, dragging a 5.13 ERA despite underlying numbers pointing to a 4.07 expected ERA. Solid pitch quality metrics—including a modest 6.9% barrel rate—confirm his surface line is an undeserved penalty of bad bounces. Heading into tomorrow's start against the Yankees, he's primed for a positive rebound.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
COOLING OFFOAK @ CIN
Alika Williams: .519 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Andrew Abbott
Twenty-six plate appearances is nothing, a couple of bad nights move that number more than any real swing issue could. Abbott throws left-handed, the side Williams has actually hit better — I like the .706 version of him showing up over the .519 one tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
FIRST INNINGMIA @ ATL
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of MIA @ ATL
Both lineups have been quiet early all year — three first-inning runs allowed in the last ten for each side — and the starters' own first-frame numbers back that trend up rather than fight it. Pérez has been especially stingy there, a .200 average against over 17 innings of first-inning work.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ KC
Minnesota Twins like to run — Carter Jensen (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Minnesota runs regardless of who's catching, and tonight that means testing an arm that's actually earned some respect — Jensen has thrown out 38% of the runners who've tested him. Win that battle and Kansas City's staff can work from the stretch without worrying about the running game; lose it and the Twins get the free 90 feet that turns a single into a run.
P Minnesota Twins stole 0 bases
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Bo Bichette
Two numbers tell the story: .256 and .670. That OPS wouldn't clear the bar for a corner bench bat, let alone a guy hitting in the 2-hole, a spot that's supposed to be getting on base and doing damage, not making outs. Nothing in front of me here, no steals, no power, no counting stats, gives a reason to look past that line. The only thing propping this up is the lineup card still has him hitting second tonight, so playing time isn't the issue. Production is. A season-long roster spot is a bet on six months, not one night's slot, and a sub-.670 OPS bat with nothing else attached isn't a bet worth a roster spot somebody else could be producing on. CUT. The lineup slot says the team still trusts him. The line says he hasn't earned it. Not burning a season-long spot on a .256/.670 bat with zero counting-stat cover.
CUT LISTBAL tonight
Dylan Beavers
Beavers leads off for Baltimore with a .673 OPS and a .244 average — thin for a leadoff man who's supposed to be on base ahead of the order, but it's the only one of these three within shouting distance of usable. Nothing here forces your hand tonight. Keep him, on a short leash.
FIRST INNINGTOR @ CHC
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Zero first-inning runs for Toronto in ten straight games is about as complete a cold spell as that stat gets. Doesn't fully square with Peterson's own first-inning history this season, though — a 10.13 ERA there even while the rest of his game has trended sharply better lately.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ KC
Green light: Kansas City Royals run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 13%
Kansas City doesn't need extra-base hits to score tonight — Caratini has caught just 13% of runners all year, and the Royals aren't the type to slow down against a number that low. One runner on turns into scoring position almost automatically, and Minnesota's pitcher has to work from the stretch knowing the running game isn't a maybe, it's coming.
P Kansas City Royals stole 1 base
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/11
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/11 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
REGRESSIONWSH @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies are 19-10 in one-run games (.655 win%)
A 19-10 mark in one-run games is a gaudy number, and results that lopsided in the tightest games tend to even out more than people expect over a full season. Doesn't mean this team isn't good — just that the one-run record specifically is the shakier part of their overall mark.
FANTASY PICKUPSOAK @ CIN
Tyler Soderstrom
Soderstrom's .798 OPS is better than the .243 average makes it look, and he's hitting cleanup tonight — the most RBI chances anybody in that lineup is getting. The pitcher across from him, Andrew Abbott, is running a 4.7 xERA and struggling, which lines up well for a four-hole bat. DEEP tier is the right call here — this isn't a mixed-league priority, but in a deep league, a cleanup hitter against a struggling starter is exactly the streamer you're looking for tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ BAL
Jackson Holliday
Holliday's numbers are the modest ones on this list — a .73 OPS and a .247 average — but he's getting the same struggling Ryan Johnson (5.3 xERA) that the top of this lineup is getting tonight, just from the five-hole instead of higher up the order. The tier says DEEP and I'm not arguing with it — the season-long line doesn't earn him a mixed-league spot, but in a deep format where you need the extra body, tonight's matchup makes him a fine short-term add.
REGRESSIONNYM @ CLE
New York Mets are 11-20 in one-run games (.355 win%)
An 11-20 record in one-run games is a rough number to carry, and results that lopsided in the tightest games usually aren't sustainable in either direction over a full season. If anything, this Mets team's overall record might be selling them a little short of how they've actually played.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ CLE
Patrick Bailey: .681 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bailey's hot stretch is modest even at its best and the shortest look of the group, but it doesn't need to be a real breakout — tonight's bar is a single, a floor he can clear on an ordinary night.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ CHC
Jacob Webb / Ryan Zeferjahn
The Cubs are heavy -320 home favorites against Toronto, making a save situation extremely likely. However, committee leader Jacob Webb has worked both of the last two days and is likely unavailable, clearing the path for Ryan Zeferjahn (4 saves, 11 holds) to handle the ninth. Scoop up and stream Ryan Zeferjahn immediately for a high-value vulture save tonight.
FIRST INNINGMIN @ KC
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Minnesota's lineup has scored in the first inning just once in their last ten games — about as cold a start as a lineup can have. Both starters tonight have actually been sharp in the first inning specifically this year, so that early quiet might not be just about a slow-starting lineup.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
BATTER VS ARMWSH @ PHI
CJ Abrams vs Cristopher Sanchez: .353
CJ Abrams has had Sanchez's number in limited looks — 6-for-17 for .353 across his career against him — and the two meet again tonight. He's not walking in cold either, riding a 1.108 OPS over his last 15 games.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/15
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/15 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.

Graded results

Games

W
New York Mets ML +114
MLB · 13-6
W
Tigers ML +111
MLB · 11-0
L
Royals ML -121
MLB · 4-3
W
Braves ML -158
MLB · 3-11
L
Orioles -1.5 +106
MLB · 4-1
W
Brewers ML -123
MLB · 2-5
W
White Sox +1.5 -125
MLB · 11-12
W
Padres moneyline — odds unavailable
MLB · 5-1
W
Reds ML -161
MLB · 5-6
L
Blue Jays ML -108
MLB · 2-3

Props

L
Andrew Abbott · under
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 20
W
Andruw Monasterio · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 5
W
Bryce Miller · under
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 15
L
Christian Yelich · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 0
W
David Peterson · under
Blue Jays @ Cubs · Actual 3
W
Dylan Cease · over
Blue Jays @ Cubs · Actual 10
L
Elly De La Cruz · over
Athletics @ Reds · Actual 0
W
Endy Rodriguez · over
Pirates @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Isaac Collins · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Jac Caglianone · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 2
W
Janson Junk · under
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 9
W
Kohl Drake · under
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 11
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Nationals @ Phillies · Actual 0
L
Kyle Stowers · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Matt Olson · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 1
W
Matt Olson · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 6
L
Michael Massey · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
W
Michael Wacha · under
Twins @ Royals · Actual 1
L
Mike Yastrzemski · over
Marlins @ Braves · Actual 0
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
W
Nathaniel Lowe · over
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 6
L
Nolan Arenado · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Nolan McLean · under
Mets @ Guardians · Actual 5
W
Royce Lewis · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 1
W
Ryan Johnson · under
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 14
L
Salvador Perez · over
Twins @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Tim Tawa · over
Padres @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
White Sox @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Zach McKinstry · over
Tigers @ Mariners · Actual 0
L
Zach Neto · under
Angels @ Orioles · Actual 5