Daily archive

Esteury Ruiz

Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .839 OPS, bats 9th.

Boston Red Sox pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games

Boston's used six of its eight relievers on more than one of the last three days, and Bello logging five innings across two outings is bulk work, not single-inning duty — that's a staff trying to protect the rest of the group. Weissert ground through 48 pitches for 1.7 innings, the kind of outing that usually costs a couple of days, which leaves Miller as the one arm in that group with real freshness if Boston needs a bridge tonight.

George Klassen

Starts tonight for LAA — 11.27 xERA behind a 11.57 ERA.

Xavier Edwards

Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .765 OPS, bats 4th.

Owen Caissie

Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .727 OPS, bats 5th.

Otto Lopez

Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .825 OPS, bats 2nd.

Athletics 0-8 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts

Oakland's lost all eight of Perkins's starts this year, and a streak that clean isn't one bad outing dragging the number down — it's the result every single time. That kind of run follows the dugout onto the field before the first pitch means anything, and Oakland carries it into Boston still looking for the first crack in it.

Reds 1-7 in Chase Petty's last 8 starts

One win with Petty on the mound to open the season, seven straight losses since. He takes that skid on the road into Washington tonight, still chasing whatever clicked that first time.

Orioles 1-7 in Shane Baz's last 8 starts

Baltimore's 1-7 in Baz's eight starts, and closing that stretch with three straight losses means this isn't old history — it's the shape of the team's most recent form too. They carry that into Texas tonight still hunting for the outcome that's mostly eluded them.

Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Dallas throwing 74 pitches in one outing out of Toronto's pen is a starter's workload, not a reliever's, and that kind of number usually buys several days off, not one. Lee's back-to-back turn only cost him 15 pitches combined though, which makes him the more realistic bridge option tonight even on zero rest.

White Sox 1-7 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts

One win in eight Schultz starts, and the fact the last three all broke the same way tells me this isn't a number cooling off — it's exactly where this team is right now. Cleveland walks into a home team that hasn't given itself much recent evidence to lean on.

Pirates 7-1 in Carmen Mlodzinski's last 8 starts

Seven wins in eight Mlodzinski starts is about as close to automatic as a rotation turn gets, and a mark like that says as much about how comfortable this team plays behind him as it does about his own stuff. Pittsburgh brings that trust into a home game tonight against the Mets.

Merrill Kelly

Starts tonight for ARI — 7.17 xERA behind a 5.04 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.

Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Ryan Feltner (RHP)

Over 298 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .967 OPS versus .527 in 137 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryan Feltner tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Over 218 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .740 OPS versus .364 in 43 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

ATL have won 7 straight

Seven straight with nearly four runs of margin a night isn't a team stealing close games — that's a club clicking everywhere, not living off one lucky swing repeating itself. The road trip to New York is the toughest setting this streak's faced, but a gap built that wide over seven games tends to hold up.

P team lost 2-3

Hector Rodriguez

Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.286 OPS, 0.000 AVG from the 6-hole.

NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight

Six straight unders and the books still haven't backed off — tonight's total actually climbs to 8.25, the richest ask of the whole run. That's the real test: a number sitting further above the recent scoring pace than at any point in this stretch, against Pittsburgh.

P final total 10 vs 8.25

Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 6th

Drew Gilbert carries a .768 OPS vs. Right (198 AB) against .145 the other way (34 AB), and faces RHP Keider Montero from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Ryan Feltner: 11.48 ERA over his last 3 starts

Feltner's getting hit hard in all three of these starts, not one disaster skewing an otherwise fine line — hitters have squared him up early and often every time out. There's no strong form underneath it to lean on either, since the season number was already rough before this stretch started.

P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K

Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 3rd against Zack Wheeler (RHP)

Over 201 AB vs. Right, Jesus Sanchez owns a .795 OPS versus .364 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.

P 1-for-1, 2 TB, 2 BB

Ceddanne Rafaela

Gary's Take Ceddanne Rafaela has cleared this prop in six of his last 15 games, yet the market is hanging +850 on him to do it again tonight. That price completely ignores the current form of a guy hitting second in a lineup that has scored 30 runs over its last three games.

P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 2 TB

Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot

Esmerlyn Valdez's vs. Left line (1.238 OPS, 52 AB) sits well above his .813 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Zac Thornton throws LHP, the hand he hits best.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB

Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot

Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.893 OPS, 312 AB) sits well above his .583 mark the other way (113 AB). Tonight's starter Zebby Matthews throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB

Red Sox 6-2 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts

Boston's won five straight with Tolle on the mound, and that's the more relevant number than anything from earlier in the year — this is current form, not a stat that's gone stale. Whatever's clicking for this team right now, it's clicking every time he takes the ball.

Phillies 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts

Six wins in eight Wheeler starts is the kind of number that lets a team play loose, trusting the night's already tilted their way before the first pitch settles anything. Philadelphia brings that comfort into a home start tonight against Toronto.

Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws George Klassen (RHP), batting 1st

Kyle Stowers carries a .840 OPS vs. Right (263 AB) against .530 the other way (77 AB), and faces RHP George Klassen from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

P 4-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB

Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.956 OPS, 214 AB) sits well above his .615 mark the other way (52 AB). Tonight's starter Kyle Leahy throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

P 1-for-3, 2 TB

Otto Lopez: .524 OPS in L15 — draws RHP George Klassen

Otto Lopez's .524 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .825 season mark, down 0.301. Tonight he draws RHP George Klassen — his weaker side: a .795 OPS vs RHP across 340 AB.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Brandon Nimmo

Gary's Take Brandon Nimmo has been swinging a hot bat for Texas, launching a pair of homers over his last four games and hitting .409 over the last week. Tonight he draws right-hander Shane Baz, who carries a stark platoon split.

P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB

OAK have lost 5 straight

Outscored by 28 across five losses works out to better than five and a half runs a night for Oakland, which points to lopsided from the first few innings rather than late collapses. Boston's own four-game run has come with a plus-22 margin, so a team trying to snap a skid walks straight into the club doing the exact kind of damage that's been done to them.

P team lost 1-13

Wilyer Abreu

Gary's Take Wilyer Abreu is absolutely obliterating the baseball right now, racking up four home runs over his last seven days and barreling five of the 22 balls he's put in play. He brings a 94.7 mph average exit velocity into a matchup against Jack Perkins, who is bleeding hard contact and struggles to keep the ball on the ground.

P 0 HR — 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB

Chicago Cubs pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

Thielbar's the one real worry in this Cubs pen — the only arm that went back-to-back, and doing it in an inning-plus on 31 pitches wasn't clean. Everybody else in that group has at least a day of separation somewhere in the stretch, so Kansas City's really only pitching around one name tonight.

CJ Abrams (bats L) hits 1st against Chase Petty (RHP)

Over 284 AB vs. Right, CJ Abrams owns a .994 OPS versus .743 in 141 AB the other way. He sees RHP Chase Petty tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Brayan Rocchio: .389 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Schultz

Brayan Rocchio's .389 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .703 season mark, down 0.314. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Schultz — his weaker side: a .674 OPS vs LHP across 119 AB.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Ian Happ: .410 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Daniel Lynch IV

Ian Happ's .410 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .727 season mark, down 0.317. Tonight he draws LHP Daniel Lynch IV — his weaker side: a .521 OPS vs LHP across 116 AB.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Cam Schlittler

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Cardinals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Braves. 2.95 xERA this season.

Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.925 OPS, 310 AB) sits well above his .595 mark the other way (58 AB). Tonight's starter Tyler Mahle throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Jesús Luzardo

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 vs Nationals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Blue Jays. 2.95 xERA this season.

Ben Rice: .512 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Mahle

Ben Rice's .512 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .906 season mark, down 0.394. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Mahle — his stronger side: a .969 OPS vs RHP across 258 AB.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Nico Hoerner: .966 OPS in Last 15 Days

Over the last 15 days (53 PA) he is at a .966 OPS, up 0.282 on his .684 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Troy Melton

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Mariners (played), Sun 8/9 at Giants. 3.11 xERA this season.

Kyle Stowers

Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Kyle Stowers right now. Four home runs over his last fifteen games, a .929 OPS in that stretch, and the underlying contact backs up the numbers — 94.4 mph average exit velocity with ten hard-hit balls recently.

P 0 HR — 4-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB

Francisco Lindor

Gary's Take Lindor's locked in right now — four homers and twelve RBI over his last fifteen games, and he went deep again just last night in Cleveland. He's a switch hitter, so tonight he's swinging from the left side against Mlodzinski, and that's exactly where Mlodzinski has been hittable all year — a near-.760 OPS and six homers allowed to lefty bats compared to a sub-.600 OPS and a single homer against righties.

P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Neither Booser nor Cleavinger was stretched far on their back-to-back turns — 14 and 23 pitches between them — so the lack of rest matters less than it looks on paper. Legumina's the one who actually burned mileage, 48 pitches across two outings, which leaves Grove, Wells, and Matz as the freshest names Tampa Bay's got if tonight runs long.

Royce Lewis

Gary's Take Royce Lewis is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. He's belted three home runs over his last seven games, hitting .435 with a staggering 1.371 OPS.

P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 3 TB

Jordan Walker: .577 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner

Jordan Walker's .577 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.257. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Feltner — his weaker side: a .807 OPS vs RHP across 325 AB.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Chicago White Sox pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games

Brazobán and Murphy both pitched on back-to-back days after already throwing multi-inning outings — 39 and 41 pitches between them — so neither is walking into tonight fresh. Taylor, Richards, and Newcomb have only surfaced once in this stretch, which makes that trio Chicago's freshest source of length if this one against Cleveland is still close late.

Trent Grisham: .401 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Mahle

Trent Grisham's .401 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .689 season mark, down 0.288. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Mahle — his weaker side: a .672 OPS vs RHP across 233 AB.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Gabriel Hughes

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Rays (played), Sun 8/9 at Cardinals (proj). 2.4 xERA this season.

Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.058 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 57 PA: a 1.058 OPS versus .800 for the season, 0.258 above his norm. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 2-for-5, 2 TB

Jack Perkins: 6.72 ERA vs 4.01 xERA

That 6.72 ERA reads like a disaster, but it's not who Perkins has actually been — the contact against him lines up with a 4.01, the better part of three runs better. I'd expect the version of him that shows up going forward to look a lot more like that second number than the first.

P 3 IP, 5 ER, 3 K

Jacob Wilson: .414 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle

Jacob Wilson's .414 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .694 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws LHP Payton Tolle — his weaker side: a .626 OPS vs LHP across 98 AB.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Colt Keith: 1.102 OPS in Last 15 Days

Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.102 OPS, up 0.356 on his .746 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Carson Benge

Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better than Benge — nine hits in his last twenty-six at-bats, two home runs, and a slugging percentage over 1.000 across his last seven games. He's a lefty bat hitting cleanup, and Mlodzinski's split says the same thing it says for Lindor: this is a pitcher who's had real trouble with left-handed power this season.

P 0 HR — 2-for-2, 2 TB

Jacob Webb / Ryan Zeferjahn

Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 6 saves, Ryan Zeferjahn 4. The role is live.

MIL games have gone UNDER 4 straight

Four straight unders and tonight's total jumps to 8, the richest ask of the whole stretch. That makes tonight the toughest number of the run to clear, sitting further above the recent scoring pace than at any point this week against Minnesota.

P final total 14 vs 8

Nasim Nunez: .309 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Chase Petty

Nasim Nunez's .309 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .589 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws RHP Chase Petty — his weaker side: a .570 OPS vs RHP across 230 AB.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Esmerlyn Valdez: .571 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton

Esmerlyn Valdez's .571 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .959 season mark, down 0.388. Tonight he draws LHP Zac Thornton — his stronger side: a 1.238 OPS vs LHP across 52 AB.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB

Royce Lewis: 1.034 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.034 OPS versus .735 for the season, 0.299 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 2-for-5, 3 TB

CIN have won 4 straight

Plus-11 over four games works out to under three runs a night of separation for Cincinnati — the profile of a team winning clean, not needing one blowout to pad the number. Going 7-3 over the last ten says this wasn't a hot week rescuing a bad month; the record was already trending up before the streak piled on.

P team lost 3-5

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.181 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 57 PA: a 1.181 OPS versus .937 for the season, 0.244 above his norm. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Cleveland Guardians pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

When a catcher's taking the mound, like Cleveland did with Hedges this stretch, that's a bullpen being protected, not trusted — and nine different arms across three games is more churn than any pen wants to show that fast. Herrin's the one name in that group with real separation; whatever Cleveland gets late tonight probably comes down to him.

BOS have won 4 straight

Four straight and a plus-22 margin means Boston isn't scraping by — that's more than five runs a night of separation, the kind built on putting games away early. An Oakland team riding its own five-game skid and a minus-28 differential is about the softest matchup this run could ask for to keep climbing.

P team won 1-13

Jared Jones

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Brewers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Mets. 3.33 xERA this season.

Logan Henderson

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Pirates (played), Sun 8/9 vs Twins (proj). 2.61 xERA this season.

Roki Sasaki: 1.50 ERA over his last 3 starts

Better than a strikeout an inning and fewer baserunners than his season rate — that's not survival on soft-contact luck, that's an arm cutting down on the exact thing that built the mid-4 ERA in the first place. The season number hasn't caught up to it yet, but the pitcher taking the mound tonight hasn't looked like that line in a month.

P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K

Jackson Merrill: .920 OPS in Last 15 Days

Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a .920 OPS, up 0.231 on his .689 season mark. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 1-for-4, 3 TB

Wind blowing out 13 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight

Conditions at Citizens Bank Park: Partly Cloudy, 88°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.

P final total 9 vs 7.5 (over lean)

Bryson Stott: 1.070 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 39 PA: a 1.070 OPS versus .746 for the season, 0.324 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB

Zebby Matthews: 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts

The WHIP is the real tell here — jumping from 1.31 to 1.71 means Matthews is putting far more traffic on the bases than his season rate, not just getting hit hard on a couple of mistakes. Thirteen runs across three starts says the damage has come in bunches, whole innings unraveling rather than one bad pitch a night.

P 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 K

Merrill Kelly: 5.04 ERA vs 7.17 xERA

A 5.04 ERA already isn't pretty, and Kelly's actual contact quality says it should be running over two runs worse than that, closer to 7.17. That's about as clear a sign as these gaps come that the results have been propping up the performance and not the other way around.

P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Tarik Skubal

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Cubs (played), Sun 8/9 at Diamondbacks (proj). 2.98 xERA this season.

David Bednar

David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 25 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).

Willi Castro: 1.122 OPS in Last 15 Days

That 1.122 OPS spans the last 15 days (33 PA) against a .760 season baseline, a 0.362 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Max Scherzer: 7.92 ERA vs 5.44 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 7.92 ERA against a 5.44 expected ERA (2.48 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .285 vs .263 expected.

Max Scherzer: 7.92 ERA vs 5.44 xERA

A 7.92 ERA against contact that grades out closer to 5.44 is a two-and-a-half-run gap, which is enormous — Scherzer's been pitching a lot better than that ugly number lets on. That's the arm Philadelphia should actually expect to see when he gets his turn tomorrow, not the one on the stat sheet right now.

Logan Webb

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rangers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Tigers. 3.82 xERA this season.

Gunnar Henderson vs Nathan Eovaldi: .700

Gunnar Henderson has gone 7-for-10 (.700) across 10 career at-bats off Nathan Eovaldi. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.582 OPS, L15).

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Zack Wheeler: 5.25 ERA over his last 3 starts

The WHIP is barely off his season number and still elite by any measure, so Wheeler isn't walking the yard or getting strung together for line drive after line drive. When the baserunner rate holds and the ERA still balloons like this, it's a mistake pitch or two doing outsized damage, not a wholesale breakdown in stuff.

P 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K

Zac Thornton: 2.88 ERA vs 4.83 xERA

A 2.88 ERA with contact quality that grades out near 4.83 is a gap pushing two full runs — Thornton's been getting outs his underlying stuff hasn't necessarily earned. Doesn't mean it unwinds tonight against the Mets, but that's a number living on borrowed time.

P 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K

Alec Burleson: 1.029 OPS in Last 15 Days

That 1.029 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .831 season baseline, a 0.198 swing. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Tyler Stephenson: 1.075 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.075 OPS versus .756 for the season, 0.319 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Chase Meidroth: .994 OPS in Last 15 Days

That .994 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .758 season baseline, a 0.236 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 1-for-5, 2 TB

Jacob Young: 1.069 OPS in Last 15 Days

That 1.069 OPS spans the last 15 days (27 PA) against a .707 season baseline, a 0.362 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Ezequiel Duran: .995 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a .995 OPS versus .787 for the season, 0.208 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB

Kyle Leahy: 3.44 ERA vs 5.2 xERA

Leahy's sitting on a 3.44 that his contact numbers don't fully back up — the expected number is almost two runs uglier, at 5.2. I'm not paying full price for that ERA tonight.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.15 ERA vs 4.83 xERA

Even with that 7-1 team record behind him, Mlodzinski's actual contact numbers say he's been getting away with more than his ERA lets on — close to a run and two-thirds of separation is real. The record's earned, but the process underneath it is shakier than the win total suggests.

P 3 IP, 5 ER, 1 K

Shane Baz: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts

Three earned runs allowed across those three trips to the mound says Baz has been finding outs with more than just soft contact — he's pitching deep into games and not letting what damage there is turn into runs. Whatever's dragging Baltimore's record down with him, it isn't him lately.

P 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 K

Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .228 xBA

Mickey Moniak's .278 average comes against a .228 expected (xBA) on 289 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .374 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

P 1-for-3, 2 TB

JT Brubaker: 3.17 ERA vs 4.64 xERA

JT Brubaker carries a 3.17 ERA against a 4.64 expected ERA (1.47 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .215 off him vs a .261 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

P 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K

Merrill Kelly owns a 6.33 ERA at Chase Field — 4.27 everywhere else

Two runs of separation between his home and road ERA is too wide to wave off as noise, and the contact numbers back it up — hitters are squaring Kelly up harder in this building specifically. Stack that on top of an ERA that's already running well ahead of his contact quality, and the version of him on the mound tonight has two things working against it.

P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Blas Castano

Listed back 8/7 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.

Luis Campusano: .303 AVG vs .257 xBA

Across 126 plate appearances, Luis Campusano carries a .303 average versus a .257 xBA. His wOBA sits at .390 against a .341 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB

Chase Petty

Petty's ERA is 4.5, his xERA 5.27 — both middling, neither a disaster, and the smallest gap of this group. Tonight's start reads as a normal outing, not a warning sign. Hold. Unspectacular on both counts, but nothing here forces the move tonight.

Daniel Lynch IV: 1.96 ERA vs 3.4 xERA

A 1.96 ERA is video-game good, and Lynch's expected number, 3.4, says the actual stuff underneath is closer to solid than spectacular — a run and a half of daylight between the two. That gap usually finds its way back to the pitcher eventually.

P 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K

Drew Rasmussen

Streamer vs SEA — 3.14 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP.

Kyle Leahy

Starts tonight for STL — 5.2 xERA behind a 3.44 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.

Robbie Ray: 1.13 ERA over his last 3 starts

The strikeout stuff hasn't dipped at all, but the WHIP says Ray's actually allowing a bit more traffic than his season rate, not less, and the results still came out dominant anyway. That's bend-but-not-break pitching, backed by enough swing-and-miss to escape the innings that got sideways all three times through.

P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K

Kyle Freeland: 6.81 ERA vs 5.23 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 6.81 ERA against a 5.23 expected ERA (1.58 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .303 vs .284 expected.

Kyle Freeland: 6.81 ERA vs 5.23 xERA

6.81 looks brutal on its face, but Freeland's actual contact quality checks in a run and a half better than that, at 5.23. Still not a great number, but a real gap between what's happened and what he's earned heading into his turn against St. Louis tomorrow.

Robbie Ray: 3.08 ERA vs 4.42 xERA

Even with three dominant starts on the board, Ray's season-long 3.08 is running better than a run ahead of his 4.42 expected mark. The swing-and-miss stuff backs up the strikeouts; the ERA's gotten some help too.

P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K

Daniel Lynch IV owns a 1.09 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 2.95 everywhere else

A sub-1.10 ERA at home against a mid-2s number on the road is a wide gap on its own, and a .141 average against widens it further — hitters simply aren't getting to Lynch in this building the way they do everywhere else. That split's showing up over 24 games, not four or five, so the venue is genuinely part of the equation.

P 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K

Clay Holmes: 2.39 ERA vs 3.9 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 2.39 ERA against a 3.9 expected ERA (1.51 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .206 vs .251 expected.

Jake Cronenworth

Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.599 OPS, 0.218 AVG from the 2-hole.

Tyler Phillips: 3.53 ERA vs 4.73 xERA

Phillips's 3.53 is outrunning his contact quality by a bit more than a run — 4.73 is closer to what his actual stuff supports. Solid pitcher, just not quite as clean as the ERA reads.

P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K

Parker Messick

Streamer vs CHW — 3.09 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.06 WHIP.

Cade Cavalli: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts

He has allowed 4 earned runs over his last 18 innings (2.00 ERA) with a 1.17 WHIP (1.29 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.52 season line says.

P 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K

Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Luis Torrens (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 15 of 38 runners (39%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.

P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases

Shane Drohan: 5.00 ERA over his last 3 starts

The last 3 times out: 18 innings, 10 earned runs, 15 hits. That 5.00 ERA runs 1.52 over his 3.48 season number.

P 5 IP, 6 ER, 4 K

Julio Rodriguez vs Drew Rasmussen: .300

Julio Rodriguez's career line off Drew Rasmussen is 3-for-10, a .300 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.713 OPS, L15).

P 2-for-4, 5 TB

Salvador Perez

Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.638 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 4-hole.

Logan Gilbert

Streamer vs TB — 3.63 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.

Aaron Nola: 5.55 ERA vs 4.3 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs TOR. A 5.55 ERA against a 4.3 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .278 vs .247 expected.

Luis Rengifo

Still hitting 4th for SD — 0.632 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 4-hole.

Jordan Lawlar

Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.

Aaron Nola: 5.55 ERA vs 4.3 xERA

Nola's contact numbers say he deserved better than that 5.55, over a run and a quarter of separation from what he's actually allowed. He's closer to a mid-4s pitcher than a mid-5s one heading into his turn against Toronto tomorrow.

Miami Marlins like to run — Tyler Heineman (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Miami Marlins attempt 1.4 steals a game, but Tyler Heineman has cut down 15 of 44 runners (34%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.

P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases

Brenton Doyle

Still hitting 6th for CHW — 0.578 OPS, 0.221 AVG from the 6-hole.

Shane Drohan

Streamer vs MIN — 3.31 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.17 WHIP.

Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 14%

Milwaukee Brewers steal 1 bags a game (115 on the season) and Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 6 of 43 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.

P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases

Michael King: 3.45 ERA vs 4.55 xERA

King's 3.45 is a touch better than the 4.55 his contact quality would suggest, about a run of cushion built in. Nothing alarming, just context for when he faces Houston tomorrow.

Leo Jimenez

Still hitting 6th for MIA — 0.596 OPS, 0.209 AVG from the 6-hole.

Oneil Cruz

Listed back 8/11 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.

Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker

Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.

Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange

Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BAL @ TEX

The lineups have kept this quiet, but the two arms on the mound are the real wildcard — Eovaldi's allowed eight homers in his own first innings this year and Baz isn't far off him on contact allowed that early either. I'd expect traffic even if the zero holds, and if a run does slip through, it's more likely one mistake pitch than a lineup stringing together a rally.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Chicago Cubs like to run — Carter Jensen (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Carter Jensen owns a 38% caught-stealing rate (17 of 45) and Chicago Cubs run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.

P Chicago Cubs stole 1 base

Michael King: 3.45 ERA vs 4.55 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs HOU. A 3.45 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (1.1 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .244 expected.

Chris Sale: 2.08 ERA vs 3.04 xERA

Sale's 2.08 is excellent no matter how you slice it, though his contact quality grades closer to 3.04 — call it a run of cushion in the ERA. Doesn't change the read on him, just tempers expectations slightly heading into his turn against the Yankees tomorrow.

Anthony Kay: 4.01 ERA vs 4.99 xERA

Kay's 4.01 and his 4.99 expected mark are only about a run apart — mild, but he's gotten a slightly better shake than his contact quality earned heading into tomorrow's start against Cleveland.

Chris Sale: 2.08 ERA vs 3.04 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs NYY. A 2.08 ERA against a 3.04 expected ERA (0.96 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .215 vs .221 expected.

Anthony Kay: 4.01 ERA vs 4.99 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 4.01 ERA against a 4.99 expected ERA (0.98 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .254 vs .262 expected.

Max Fried's ERA jumps to 4.43 at Yankee Stadium (4 games there)

A .190 average against with a 4.43 ERA doesn't add up to a pitcher getting hit hard in this park — it reads more like a couple of innings where the little contact he allowed did outsized damage. The 2.56 ERA across a much deeper road sample is the more reliable read on where Fried's stuff actually sits, home start or not.

P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K

At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 2.95 ERA

A full run of separation between Leahy's home and road number, on comparable workloads both places, isn't a small-sample fluke. A .250 average against is fairly ordinary, which means the better results in this park aren't hitters going cold on him — something about pitching at Busch is just working in his favor, and that's the version of him on the mound again tonight.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Seth Lugo: 4.41 ERA vs 5.34 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs CHC. A 4.41 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (0.93 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .274 vs .277 expected.

Seth Lugo: 4.41 ERA vs 5.34 xERA

Lugo's actual ERA is running about a run ahead of his contact quality, 4.41 against a 5.34 expected mark. Minor gap, but worth filing away before he faces the Cubs tomorrow.

Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 14%

Liam Hicks is catching tonight at 14% on the season (6-for-43 throwing), and Seattle Mariners attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.

P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base

Chase Burns: 2.35 ERA vs 3.18 xERA

Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 2.35 ERA against a 3.18 expected ERA (0.83 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .202 vs .207 expected.

Chase Burns: 2.35 ERA vs 3.18 xERA

Burns's 2.35 and his 3.18 expected number are less than a run apart, the smallest gap in this group — I wouldn't read too much into it before he faces Washington tomorrow.

Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%

Jonah Heim is catching tonight at 16% on the season (7-for-45 throwing), and Boston Red Sox attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.

P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases

NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Mahle's been genuinely hittable in the first inning — a 6.00 ERA and three homers allowed that early — and Fried hasn't been much sharper himself in that frame at 4.85. That combination has the shape of a game that opens up rather than stays tight into the middle innings.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Wheeler and Soriano are both legitimately tough in the first inning this year, not just good pitchers catching cold lineups — a .156 average against for Wheeler and .205 for Soriano. Expect both sides still searching for their timing when the second inning starts, with a mistake pitch a likelier cause of an early run than either lineup stringing together quality at-bats.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Drohan's been about as tough as it gets in the first inning, a .167 average against, so Minnesota isn't getting a soft landing at the top of the order. Matthews has already allowed four homers in his own first innings this year, and that's a real opening for Milwaukee even with their bats having gone quiet lately.

P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st

PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Mlodzinski's been lockdown in the first inning all year, a .138 average against backing up that 2.00 ERA, so the Mets aren't walking into a friendly look. Thornton's the opposite case entirely — a 7.50 ERA and .370 average against that early — which means the real action tonight is more likely to come once Pittsburgh gets a set of eyes on him in the first.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Colorado's seeing the sharp version of Leahy early, a 2.57 ERA and a .153 average against in his first innings this season. Feltner's the mismatch on the other side — five homers allowed in just sixteen innings of first-inning work — and that's probably why tonight's number likes a run scoring despite St. Louis's quiet history early.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Carter Baumler

Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.

Michael Soroka

Listed back 8/15 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.

Maikel Garcia

Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.