Sports Picks Archive — Friday, August 7, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Pirates· +120

Friday night at PNC Park, with the Mets rolling into Pittsburgh on a three-game winning streak while the Pirates return home searching for answers after a rough road trip. I’m taking New York to keep the momentum going. The matchup points toward the Mets’ lineup. Carmen Mlodzinski is making his first start since May after working in relief, and New York can stack left-handed bats against the side that has given him more trouble. Carson Benge and Francisco Lindor are driving the ball, while Jared Young and Luis Torrens add depth to a lineup that just produced 25 runs during its Cleveland sweep. Zac Thornton carries some regression risk, but Pittsburgh has scored exactly two runs in three straight games and is missing several important bats. These teams are closer than the records suggest, and the hotter offense is getting plus money. My card is Mets moneyline at +120.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -102

Friday night at Citizens Bank Park, two newly acquired starters take the ball under the lights. Toronto is trying to steady a depleted lineup; Philadelphia is trying to turn a strong homestand into something bigger. Zack Wheeler is the separator. His 2.49 ERA is supported by a 2.59 xERA, elite control and strong results against hitters from both sides. Toronto counters without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with Nathan Lukes ice-cold atop the order and rookie Brett Bateman making his debut. José Soriano has pitched well lately, but his 4.33 xERA signals more vulnerability than the surface numbers suggest, especially against Philadelphia’s deep collection of left-handed bats. The Phillies’ heavily used bullpen and a possible weather interruption add risk, but I still see the home side creating the clearer path to a multi-run win. I’m laying the run and a half at nearly even money: Phillies -1.5 at -102.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -119

Friday night under the lights at Nationals Park, with the Reds arriving on a four-game winning streak and Washington trying to steady itself at home. Cincinnati brings the momentum, but this matchup turns on the starting-pitching gap. Cade Cavalli has delivered five consecutive quality starts and owns a 2.00 ERA over his last three. His curveball and sweeper give him legitimate put-away weapons, and Cincinnati’s right-handed-heavy lineup draws the stronger side of his platoon split. Chase Petty, meanwhile, is being used more like an opener than a conventional starter, creating a longer path through the Reds’ bullpen. Washington’s lineup is less dangerous without James Wood, so I’m not laying the run line or expecting a comfortable win. But Cavalli gives the Nationals the better chance to control the first six innings, and their rested high-leverage arms can finish it from there. I’m taking Nationals moneyline at -119.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· -122

Friday night in the Bronx, two October-caliber clubs open a heavyweight series under warm skies at Yankee Stadium. Atlanta brings an eight-game winning streak, while former Braves ace Max Fried faces his old club for the first time. I’m backing Fried’s command and contact suppression to cool Atlanta down. His 2.39 xERA, 0.99 WHIP and microscopic 1.5% barrel rate give New York the strongest advantage in this matchup, and he has delivered a 2.70 ERA with 18 strikeouts across his three starts since returning. The rested Yankees also have a deep bullpen waiting behind him. Tyler Mahle has pitched better than his 5.13 ERA lately, but his underlying 4.07 xERA still leaves New York a clearer scoring path. The Yankees’ left-handed bats are built to exploit the short porch, and Mahle must navigate them in his Braves debut after allowing five runs in his last outing. Atlanta is hotter, but at Yankees ML -122, I’ll pay the manageable price for the superior starter, home field and rest advantage.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -147

Friday night under the closed roof at loanDepot park, with Miami returning home after a rough sweep in Atlanta. The Marlins get a favorable chance to stop the slide against an Angels club still trying to find stability after the deadline. George Klassen has electric velocity, but 10 walks in 4.2 innings makes him impossible for me to trust. Miami can stack five left-handed or switch hitters against him, and the combination of free passes and hard contact could put the Marlins ahead early. Tyler Phillips is the steadier starter, allowing two runs in each of his last three outings, while the Angels have averaged only 2.7 runs over their last 10 games. Miami’s vulnerable bullpen keeps me away from the run line, especially at plus money. I’m paying the -147 and asking the Marlins to win by any margin, with the starting-pitching advantage carrying the handicap. Marlins moneyline is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Athletics· -130

Fenway is hot, Boston is rolling, and the Athletics arrive carrying an eight-game losing streak. Friday night’s opener gives the Red Sox a chance to keep pressing against a club that has struggled to stop the bleeding. I’m laying the run and a half because Boston has the advantage everywhere that matters. Payton Tolle owns a 3.30 ERA with strong underlying numbers, while Jack Perkins brings a 6.72 ERA into a matchup with a Red Sox lineup producing power throughout the order. If Boston forces Perkins out early, it gets to attack an Athletics bullpen that has allowed 23 earned runs over its last seven games. Boston’s bullpen workload after Thursday’s 13-inning marathon is the concern, and laying -130 on a run line leaves little margin for a tight game. Still, Tolle can protect those relievers, while Boston’s offense has the better path to creating separation. My card is Red Sox -1.5 at -130.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -135

Friday night at Rate Field brings together two clubs trying to stop three-game slides, but they arrive in very different pitching situations. Chicago is coming home after Thursday’s draining 13-inning loss, while Cleveland hands the ball to Parker Messick. Messick owns a 2.57 ERA and has allowed only three earned runs across his last three starts, striking out 18 against one walk. Noah Schultz carries a 5.82 ERA, has failed to finish four innings in consecutive starts, and now faces a Cleveland lineup built to make him work. If Schultz exits early, Chicago’s taxed bullpen becomes a major liability. Cleveland’s recent form and its own heavy bullpen usage keep me off the run line. But the starting-pitching advantage is too substantial to pass up, and the Guardians have the stronger late-inning structure if the game stays close. I’m laying the price with Guardians ML at -135.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· +119

## Gary’s Take Friday night under the roof in Milwaukee, with the first-place Brewers rolling into a series opener on a three-game winning streak. I’m backing the home side to create separation and cash the run line. Shane Drohan owns the stronger profile, especially with his four-seamer and slider generating both whiffs and weak contact. Minnesota’s right-heavy lineup has a few dangerous bats, but it lacks Byron Buxton and has scored three or fewer runs in four of its past five games. On the other side, Zebby Matthews arrives with a 5.22 ERA, a rough July and enough hard-contact issues for Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers and William Contreras to do damage. Milwaukee also has the cleaner path after the starters exit. Its current bullpen has been excellent all season and dominant over the past week, while Minnesota’s relief unit remains less dependable. I’ll trade the safety of the expensive moneyline for plus money and take Brewers -1.5 at +119.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -165

Friday night under clear skies at Kauffman Stadium, with Kevin Gausman making his Cubs debut and Daniel Lynch IV stepping out of the Royals’ bullpen for his first start of the season. Chicago arrives on a four-game winning streak, while Kansas City is trying to steady a season that has repeatedly exposed its lack of pitching depth. I trust Gausman more than his 4.38 ERA suggests. His 3.93 xERA points to better underlying work, and his splitter remains a legitimate finisher with a 40.1% whiff rate. Lynch has been excellent in relief, but starting is a different assignment; if his workload is limited, the Cubs get an early look at a Royals bullpen carrying a 4.55 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Chicago owns the deeper lineup, the stronger relief unit and the better recent form. Pete Crow-Armstrong is driving the ball, Alex Bregman just delivered another late-game swing, and the Cubs have multiple ways to create offense even in a pitcher-friendly park. The price is substantial, so I’m keeping this on the moneyline instead of asking Chicago to cover a run and a half. Cubs ML -165.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -139

## Gary’s Take Friday night under the closed roof in Arlington, and two clubs hovering around .500 meet with little room to waste. Texas enters rested and riding consecutive wins; Baltimore arrives after playing Thursday and has struggled to generate consistent offense. Shane Baz has pitched well lately, but Texas can send five left-handed bats at a right-hander allowing a .787 OPS to lefties. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager and Brandon Nimmo give the Rangers a strong top-of-the-order matchup, while Nathan Eovaldi’s splitter and curveball should test an Orioles lineup batting just .159 in August. Eovaldi’s recent volatility keeps this from being a high-confidence play, and -139 is no bargain. Still, Texas has the better lineup configuration, the rest advantage and home field, so I’m backing the Rangers moneyline at -139.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -165

Friday night at Busch Stadium, with the Cardinals back home and trying to climb above .500. I’m laying the -165 with St. Louis in the series opener. Kyle Leahy has allowed four earned runs across his last three starts and owns a 2.95 ERA at Busch. His vulnerability to left-handed hitters is a concern against Colorado’s lineup, but Ryan Feltner presents the clearer target: a 5.75 ERA, an 11.47 mark over his last three starts, and damaging contact against hitters from both sides. Alec Burleson is scorching the ball, and St. Louis can stack six left-handed bats around him. The separation grows after the starters leave. St. Louis has the better defense and a far more dependable bullpen, while Colorado’s current relief group carries a 5.61 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Leahy’s underlying numbers keep me off the run line, but the Cardinals have the stronger path across nine innings. Cardinals moneyline -165.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Astros· -108

Friday night at Petco, two hot clubs meet with October pressure already creeping into the picture. I’m backing San Diego in Robbie Ray’s Padres debut. Ray has allowed only two earned runs across his last three starts, and his ability to miss bats gives him the clearest path through a dangerous Houston lineup. Ronel Blanco has surrendered 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings since returning, hasn’t worked beyond 5⅓, and now faces a Padres order with several left-handed threats. If this becomes a bullpen game, San Diego owns the stronger relief unit. Houston’s rested lineup makes this competitive, and Ray’s underlying numbers leave some room for regression. Still, the starting-pitching edge, home park, and late-inning advantage are enough at nearly even money. Gary’s pick: Padres moneyline at -108.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· -111

Friday night under the closed roof at Chase Field, the Dodgers arrive carrying a six-game losing streak—and a lineup built to end it loudly. First pitch comes at 9:40 ET, with Los Angeles rested and Arizona finishing a demanding stretch. Roki Sasaki gives me the starting-pitching edge. He has allowed only three earned runs with 21 strikeouts over his last 18 innings, and his rising whiff rates suggest the improvement is real. Merrill Kelly owns a 5.04 ERA, a 6.33 mark at Chase Field and damaging contact metrics; that is a rough assignment against Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and the rest of this Dodgers order. The price pushed me away from the Dodgers moneyline and onto the run line. Arizona’s bullpen is the main threat to the margin, so Los Angeles needs to do its damage against Kelly and give Sasaki room to work. I’m betting the Dodgers break through early and snap the skid with a multi-run win: Dodgers -1.5 at -111.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· +104

Friday night under the lights at T-Mobile Park, Tampa Bay arrives riding a three-game winning streak while Seattle tries to respond after being shut out twice in its last three games. The market has the Mariners favored at home, but I’m backing the better team at plus money. Drew Rasmussen gives me the starting-pitching edge. He has allowed two earned runs over his last 18 innings, with 24 strikeouts against three walks, and his season-long contact profile is stronger than Logan Gilbert’s. Gilbert is plenty capable, but Tampa Bay has already handled him once this season, while Seattle’s lineup has struggled to produce consistently. The bullpen gap seals it. Tampa Bay’s current relief group owns a 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and it enters rested after Thursday’s off day. Seattle’s bullpen has been hit hard lately and is missing Cole Wilcox, creating a clear late-game advantage if this is close after six. At +104, the Rays moneyline is my play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -136

Friday night at Oracle Park, with the marine air settling in and Detroit trying to carry its road-trip surge into San Francisco. First pitch is set for 10:15 p.m. ET, and I’m backing the Tigers on the moneyline at -136. Keider Montero gives Detroit the more dependable path through the early innings. He owns a 3.17 ERA, has allowed five earned runs across his last three starts, and has held both left- and right-handed hitters in check. San Francisco counters with JT Brubaker as an opener on two days’ rest, forcing a Giants bullpen game against a Tigers lineup that has scored at least eight runs in six of its last eight. Oracle Park can mute some of Detroit’s power, but this lineup is producing from top to bottom, while the Giants have lost five of six and were shut out Wednesday. The Giants had Thursday off and Detroit played yesterday, yet the gap in starting pitching and current offensive form still points my way. Gary’s Take: Tigers ML -136.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

CARMEN MLODZINSKIPITCHER OUTS UNDER 12.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -129

Carmen Mlodzinski hasn't made a start since May 25, working out of the bullpen for the last two months. Now he's being pressed into a spot start because Mitch Keller hit the injured list. Pitchers transitioning from a short-relief role aren't stretched out to suddenly throw 75 pitches, making 13 outs a massive ask. Add in the heavy threat of rain and thunderstorms in Pittsburgh tonight that could cause a delay and end a starter's night early, and this under is the most logical play on the board.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON BENGETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBNew York Mets· +145

The rookie is absolutely locked in right now. Benge just ripped through Cleveland, homering on Tuesday and Wednesday before adding an RBI triple on Thursday. Tonight he gets a spot-starter in Mlodzinski who has struggled with left-handed bats, allowing a .755 OPS and six of his seven total home runs to lefties this year. With the way Benge is swinging it and the favorable platoon advantage, getting this kind of plus money for him to find a gap or notch a couple hits is tremendous value.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +525

Lindor's locked in right now — four homers and twelve RBI over his last fifteen games, and he went deep again just last night in Cleveland. He's a switch hitter, so tonight he's swinging from the left side against Mlodzinski, and that's exactly where Mlodzinski has been hittable all year — a near-.760 OPS and six homers allowed to lefty bats compared to a sub-.600 OPS and a single homer against righties. Everything about this matchup plays into a strength he's already showing every night. I'm comfortable leaning on him here.

THE LONG SHOT

CARSON BENGEHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +800

Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better than Benge — nine hits in his last twenty-six at-bats, two home runs, and a slugging percentage over 1.000 across his last seven games. He's a lefty bat hitting cleanup, and Mlodzinski's split says the same thing it says for Lindor: this is a pitcher who's had real trouble with left-handed power this season. Benge is squaring the ball up hard and not missing much when he swings it. At this price, a piece of that form is worth the play.

THE LONG SHOT

BRETT BATYHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +650

Baty's sample is thinner than the bats ahead of him in this order, but the shape of it is the same — a home run in each of his recent stretches and hard contact whenever he connects. He's another lefty bat facing a pitcher who's given up six homers to left-handed hitters against just one to righties, so the matchup is doing him a favor even if his spot in the order — seventh — isn't, since he won't see as many pitches as Benge or Lindor. Priced long enough that I don't need it often.

THE LONG SHOT

MARCUS SEMIENHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +900

Semien's the hottest name on this board by recent rate — three homers in his last fifteen games, including one just last night — but he bats right-handed, and that's the side Mlodzinski has actually handled well this year, a sub-.600 OPS and only one home run allowed to righties all season. That's a real strike against this one next to the lefties in the same lineup, and it's why I'm not leaning on it as hard. But a hitter running this hot at a price this long is still worth a small piece, even against the tougher side of the matchup.

GARY'S PICK

ZACK WHEELERPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +102

As I mentioned in my game cap, Zack Wheeler is the true separator in this matchup. His 2.59 xERA fully supports the surface numbers, and tonight he faces a Toronto lineup missing its biggest threat in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. With an ice-cold Nathan Lukes leading off and a rookie making his debut at the bottom of the order, this is a prime spot for Wheeler to cruise. Add in the threat of a potential weather delay that could cut his night short, and grabbing the under on his earned runs at plus money is a terrific angle.

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE HARPERWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +115

Jose Soriano brings elite velocity to the mound, but command has been a persistent issue this season, as he has issued 57 free passes across 123 innings. Bryce Harper's eye is as sharp as ever right now, drawing five walks over his last three games alone. Soriano will likely try to nibble around the edges against Philadelphia's most dangerous hitter rather than challenging him over the plate, making this plus-money price on a single Harper walk a great value.

GARY'S PICK

CADE CAVALLIPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -109

Cade Cavalli has been a machine when it comes to eating innings lately, delivering exactly six frames (18 outs) in each of his last five starts. He is facing a Reds lineup that is swinging a hot bat but also strikes out at one of the highest rates in the league, which should help him keep his pitch count in check. With Washington leaning on him to provide stability after a rough stretch, I expect him to navigate this lineup efficiently enough to get us through the sixth inning again.

GARY'S PICK

ELLY DE LA CRUZWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +142

Getting plus money on a prop that has hit in 10 of a player's last 15 games is the exact kind of value I look for. Elly De La Cruz has been exceptionally patient during Cincinnati's recent hot streak, drawing a free pass in three of his last four games. Pitchers are inherently careful when he steps into the box, knowing his power can alter the scoreboard instantly and his speed makes him a nightmare on the basepaths. Whether it’s Cade Cavalli nibbling at the edges or a reliever losing command later in the game, I’ll gladly take these odds on Elly working a walk tonight.

GARY'S PICK

MAX FRIEDPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -105

Fried is facing his former teammates for the first time while still building his pitch count back up after a long stint on the injured list. He threw 78 pitches in 5.1 innings his last time out, and even if his leash is slightly longer tonight, getting 17 outs is a massive ask against a Braves lineup that has won eight straight and put up 27 runs in its last four games. Atlanta will work deep counts and test his stamina in the humid August heat. Playing the under at near even money is the smart read.

GARY'S PICK

AUSTIN WELLSHITS OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +105

We are getting plus money for a single hit from a guy who is absolutely scorching the baseball right now. He might be buried at the bottom of the order, but Wells' contact quality over the last two weeks jumps off the page — a massive 96.3 mph average exit velocity with five hard-hit balls and two barrels on just eight balls in play. Tyler Mahle is making his Braves debut after a rocky July, and Wells only needs to square up one mistake to cash this ticket.

GARY'S PICK

GEORGE KLASSENPITCHER WALKS OVER 2.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -117

As I mentioned in the game preview, George Klassen has electric raw stuff but absolutely zero idea where it is going. The rookie has made two big-league starts this year, logging a combined 4.2 innings, and has walked exactly five batters in both of them. He is issuing free passes at an astronomical rate, and against a Marlins team that can simply stand in the box and wait him out, asking for three walks at this price feels like a steal.

GARY'S PICK

GRIFFIN CONINEWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +128

If we are banking on George Klassen's wildness, we should back one of Miami's disciplined hitters to capitalize. Griffin Conine hits in the heart of the order, ensuring he will see Klassen at least twice before a pitching change. Over his last 15 days, Conine boasts a very patient 19% chase rate, meaning he will not bail the rookie out by swinging at pitches off the plate. At plus money, this correlates perfectly with my read on the Angels' starter.

GARY'S PICK

JACK PERKINSPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -124

Jack Perkins brings a 6.72 ERA to Fenway Park to face a Boston lineup that has been terrorizing pitching staffs during an eight-game win streak. The Red Sox are averaging 6.6 runs per game over their last 10, crossing the plate 12 and 14 times in two of their last three games. Perkins surrendered six earned runs to the Tigers in his last outing and allows a hard-hit rate north of 37%. Boston's bats are locked in and shouldn't have any trouble pushing at least three runs across against him.

GARY'S PICK

PAYTON TOLLEK'S OVER 6.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -132

Tolle has cleared this 6.5 strikeout mark in four of his last five starts, striking out exactly seven batters in three of those and punching out nine against Baltimore a couple of weeks ago. Oakland's lineup is reeling during this eight-game slide, and the Athletics swing and miss enough to fuel Tolle's numbers. With Boston's bullpen severely taxed after Thursday's 13-inning marathon, the Red Sox need Tolle to pitch deep into this game, giving him plenty of runway to rack up the punchouts.

GARY'S PICK

NOAH SCHULTZPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +130

The White Sox are sending Noah Schultz to the mound tonight, and he draws a Guardians lineup desperate to snap a brief losing streak. Schultz carries a 5.82 ERA and has surrendered three or more earned runs in five of his last six starts. The most important angle here is the state of Chicago's bullpen, which is absolutely gassed after a brutal 13-inning marathon against Boston on Thursday night that burned through seven different relievers. If Schultz gets into early trouble, the dugout may have no choice but to leave him out there to eat innings and take the damage. At +130, getting Over 2.5 earned runs on a struggling pitcher with an exhausted safety net is a tremendous position.

GARY'S PICK

PARKER MESSICKPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +105

Parker Messick has been Cleveland's most reliable arm, and his recent game logs read like a broken record in the best way possible. Over his last five consecutive starts, he has allowed exactly one earned run in each outing — including a July 4 assignment against this very same White Sox lineup. Now he faces a Chicago offense that just emptied the tank in a four-and-a-half-hour, 13-inning slugfest last night and lost newly acquired catcher Joey Bart to a hand fracture in the process. The market is giving us plus money to bet Messick keeps his elite form intact against a fatigued and depleted opponent. I will gladly take the under.

GARY'S PICK

SHANE DROHANK'S OVER 5.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +118

Shane Drohan has been carving up lineups over the past month, clearing the six-strikeout mark in five of his last six starts. The rookie left-hander features a four-seamer and slider combination that generates elite whiffs — 34% on the fastball and nearly 44% on the breaking ball. The Twins aren't overly strikeout-prone, but getting plus money on a number Drohan clears this consistently is an absolute gift.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON CHOURIOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +105

If you want to talk about elite contact, look no further than Jackson Chourio. Over his last 18 balls in play, he's recorded 14 hard hits and five barrels, with a scorching 97.1 mph average exit velocity. He draws Zebby Matthews, who was called up from St. Paul today to fill in for Joe Ryan and struggles mightily with hard contact (12.3% barrel rate allowed). Chourio has the power to clear this with one swing in a hitter-friendly park, making plus money an easy grab.

GARY'S PICK

DANIEL LYNCH IVPITCHER OUTS UNDER 7.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +108

Daniel Lynch IV is making his first start of the year after working exclusively out of the Kansas City bullpen, and he just pitched an inning of relief on Tuesday. Manager Matt Quatraro said the Royals are taking a shot at starting him but will do it "responsibly," which is manager-speak for a very strict pitch count. Asking a reliever on two days of rest to get eight outs against a scorching Cubs lineup is a tall order. Chicago is excellent at grinding out at-bats and drawing walks, so if Lynch faces any early traffic, his pitch count will spike and the hook will come fast. I love the plus money on a short outing here.

GARY'S PICK

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -110

Pete Crow-Armstrong is putting together a massive stretch at the plate. He's batting .333 with a 1.181 OPS over his last 15 games, and the contact quality backs it up entirely — he's averaging a 94.2 mph exit velocity with 11 hard-hit balls in his last 18 put in play. As the leadoff man, he's guaranteed volume, and tonight he gets to attack a patchwork Kansas City pitching plan. With Lynch opening on a pitch count, PCA is going to get multiple looks at a Royals bullpen that holds a collective 4.55 ERA. At this price, I'm backing him to keep driving the ball and cashing extra bases.

GARY'S PICK

NATHAN EOVALDIK'S OVER 7.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +112

Eovaldi has been a strikeout machine recently, eclipsing this 7.5 mark in four of his last six starts with totals of 8, 10, 9, and 9. He draws an ideal matchup tonight against a Baltimore lineup that is reeling, batting just .159 as a team in August. Eovaldi's curveball and splitter are elite swing-and-miss pitches, and five Orioles in tonight's starting nine carry recent whiff rates of 29 percent or higher. Getting plus-money on Eovaldi to rack up eight punchouts is too good to ignore.

GARY'S PICK

BRANDON NIMMOTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +131

The Rangers have a distinct platoon advantage against Shane Baz, who yields a .285 average and a .787 OPS to left-handed hitters. Brandon Nimmo is swinging a scorching bat right now, hitting .409 over the last week with two homers and a double, clearing this total bases number in three of his last four games. At +131, we are getting a great price on a locked-in lefty swinging right into the teeth of Baz’s platoon weakness.

GARY'S PICK

WILLI CASTROH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +115

The market is completely sleeping on Willi Castro's daily production. He has eclipsed 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 13 of his last 15 games, yet we are getting +115 on the over tonight. Castro is hitting .353 over the last week with great contact metrics, and as a switch-hitter, he gets to swing from the left side against Kyle Leahy. Leahy has been solid overall but struggles mightily against the platoon advantage, allowing a .307 average and .856 OPS to lefties. Hitting with men on base in the lower half of the order, Castro is in a tremendous spot to keep this streak alive at a premium price.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN FELTNERPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +103

Ryan Feltner is catching far too much of the plate right now, and the results have been ugly for a month. Over his last six starts, Feltner has surrendered at least six hits in five of them (8, 9, 7, 6, 6, and 5). His barrel rate allowed sits north of 11 percent, and left-handed hitters are OPS-ing .847 against him. That is a massive problem against a Cardinals lineup rolling out six left-handed bats tonight. St. Louis makes consistent contact, and at plus money, I'll bet Feltner gives up at least six knocks before his night is over.

THE LONG SHOT

CEDDANNE RAFAELAHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +850

Ceddanne Rafaela has cleared this prop in six of his last 15 games, yet the market is hanging +850 on him to do it again tonight. That price completely ignores the current form of a guy hitting second in a lineup that has scored 30 runs over its last three games. He draws Jack Perkins, a starter with a 6.72 ERA, an 8.2 percent barrel rate allowed, and an extreme fly-ball profile (0.61 GO/AO). Add in a 92-degree night at Fenway Park, and the conditions are perfect for the ball to carry. I'll gladly take +850 on a hitter finding the seats this consistently.

THE LONG SHOT

WILYER ABREUHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +450

Wilyer Abreu is absolutely obliterating the baseball right now, racking up four home runs over his last seven days and barreling five of the 22 balls he's put in play. He brings a 94.7 mph average exit velocity into a matchup against Jack Perkins, who is bleeding hard contact and struggles to keep the ball on the ground. Even if Boston chases Perkins early, Abreu will get looks against an Athletics bullpen that has surrendered 23 earned runs over its last seven games. Hitting in the heart of a scorching lineup, Abreu is primed to take advantage of the 92-degree heat and a volatile pitching staff.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON NIMMOHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +600

Brandon Nimmo has been swinging a hot bat for Texas, launching a pair of homers over his last four games and hitting .409 over the last week. Tonight he draws right-hander Shane Baz, who carries a stark platoon split. Baz has allowed a .787 OPS to left-handed hitters compared to just .661 against righties, making him much more vulnerable to left-handed power. Hitting out of the cleanup spot with the roof closed at Globe Life Field, +600 is an excellent price for a dialed-in hitter holding a clear platoon advantage.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER O'NEILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +449

Nathan Eovaldi has been struggling to keep the ball in the yard lately, serving up seven home runs over his last five starts. While he handles right-handed hitters well on a general contact basis, he has still surrendered 12 homers to them in just 216 at-bats this year. Tyler O'Neill enters tonight seeing the ball exceptionally well, having homered twice in his last three games while posting a 1.806 OPS over the last seven days. Given Eovaldi's recent home run woes, O'Neill is in a prime position to capitalize at +449.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +500

José Soriano makes his Blue Jays debut tonight, and while he's been extremely tough on righties this season, left-handed bats have given him trouble. Soriano has surrendered 10 home runs to lefties across 244 at-bats, compared to just two homers allowed to righties over 202 at-bats. That split points me straight to Bryce Harper. Harper is seeing the ball well, launching two homers over his last seven days and bringing a 1.119 OPS in that stretch, which included a 433-foot blast earlier this week. Citizens Bank Park is always a cozy venue for power, and given Soriano's vulnerability on the left side, backing Harper to go deep at +500 offers exactly the kind of setup I'm looking for.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER STEPHENSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +600

Tyler Stephenson is completely dialed in at the plate right now. Over his last couple of weeks, he’s boasting a microscopic 16% whiff rate and 16% chase rate, meaning he’s refusing to expand the zone and simply isn't getting fooled. When he does swing, he’s doing damage — averaging a 93.2 mph exit velocity with three barrels on just 11 balls in play recently, which has already produced two homers over his last seven games. Cade Cavalli’s splits historically lean toward suppressing right-handed power, but +600 is way too much value to pass up for a guy making this kind of premium contact.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +390

Luis Garcia Jr. has been mashing since arriving in the Bronx at the deadline, providing a rare bright spot for a struggling Yankees offense. The left-handed bat is seeing the ball beautifully right now, sporting a 93.1 mph average exit velocity and barreling up five balls in his recent sample of play. Tyler Mahle is making his Braves debut tonight, and while he brings decent strikeout stuff, he has also served up 14 homers in 94 innings this year. With the short porch in right field calling and Garcia swinging a heavy bat, nearly 4-to-1 is a terrific price for him to find the seats.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +700

George Klassen is making a spot start for an Angels rotation that was gutted at the trade deadline, and his brief MLB track record this season is alarming. He's walked 10 batters in just 4.2 innings, and when hitters actually get a pitch to swing at, they're teeing off to the tune of a 50 percent hard-hit rate and a 25 percent barrel rate. I'm targeting Klassen with Miami's left-handed power, and Griffin Conine is the best value on the board at +700. Hitting out of the three-hole, Conine is slugging .515 on the year. He’s been squaring the ball up consistently over the last couple of weeks, posting a 95.6 mph average exit velocity with three home runs in his last 15 days. With Klassen either missing the zone or serving up very hittable pitches when he finds it, taking a shot on Conine at this price is a spot we have to hit.

THE LONG SHOT

RHYS HOSKINSHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +390

Noah Schultz has had a rough go of it in his rookie campaign, particularly against right-handed bats. He has surrendered eight homers to righties in just 196 at-bats and has struggled to pitch deep into games, failing to finish the fourth inning in two of his last three starts. That is a massive problem for Chicago tonight, as their bullpen is completely gassed after using eight relievers in Thursday's 13-inning marathon. Rhys Hoskins gets first crack at a vulnerable lefty, and his subsequent at-bats will come against a tired relief corps. Rate Field plays well for hitters, and the situational setup is perfect to back the righty slugger to run into one tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEX BREGMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +650

Alex Bregman is making an absurd amount of hard contact right now. Over his last couple of weeks, he's registered 13 hard hits on just 23 balls in play, carrying a 93.2 mph average exit velocity. He sent a game-tying homer out of Wrigley yesterday, and tonight he gets to dig in from the right side against Daniel Lynch IV. Lynch is a lefty transitioning from the bullpen for a spot start, and he's been much more vulnerable to right-handed hitters this season. Once Lynch's night ends — which should be early — Bregman gets to tee off on a Royals bullpen that holds a collective 4.55 ERA. Kauffman Stadium isn't exactly a launching pad, but at +650, the market is entirely out of step with how well Bregman is squaring up the baseball.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +425

Ryan Feltner cannot keep the ball in the yard. Over his last six starts, the Rockies right-hander has surrendered 10 home runs across just 29.2 innings. His 11.4 percent barrel rate allowed is a massive red flag, and tonight he faces a white-hot Alec Burleson. Burleson is crushing the baseball with a 95.5 mph average exit velocity and 12 hard-hit balls in his recent action, highlighted by a three-homer game on Monday in the Bronx. Feltner has surrendered eight homers to left-handed batters in just 146 at-bats this season. At +425, this is an excellent price for Burleson to jump on a mistake.

THE LONG SHOT

ROYCE LEWISHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +380

Royce Lewis is on an absolute tear, bringing an 11-game hitting streak into tonight's series opener. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .435 with three homers, five barrels, and a 93.8 mph average exit velocity. While Shane Drohan has put together a solid rookie campaign since moving to the Brewers' rotation, he is vulnerable to right-handed power — all seven of the home runs he’s surrendered this year have come off the bats of righties. Lewis is seeing the ball as well as anyone in the league right now, and I'll gladly take +380 on him to launch another one tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

AUSTIN WELLSHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +500

Wells is flying a bit under the radar, but his underlying contact quality is screaming for a home run prop. Over his last couple of weeks, he's averaging a blistering 96.3 mph exit velocity when he puts the ball in play, generating two barrels on just eight recent balls in play. Tyler Mahle relies heavily on a 92-mph four-seam fastball, which is exactly the kind of pitch a left-handed pull hitter can ambush at Yankee Stadium. At +500, the odds more than justify the raw power metrics Wells is flashing right now.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +400

Jackson Chourio is obliterating the baseball right now. He's got a staggering 97.1 mph average exit velocity over the last couple of weeks, with five barrels on just 18 balls in play. He's also homered twice during this recent stretch. Tonight he draws Zebby Matthews, who has been incredibly generous with hard contact this season, coughing up a 12.3% barrel rate while surrendering 13 earned runs and three homers over his last three starts. Matthews allows plenty of hard contact, which is a dangerous recipe against a hitter dialed in like Chourio under the roof in Milwaukee. At +400, this is a great spot to back his power.

THE LONG SHOT

BOBBY WITT JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· +425

Bobby Witt Jr. hasn't missed a beat since returning from the injured list earlier this week. He's hitting .500 since his activation with a pile of doubles, and his contact quality is through the roof. On just 11 recent balls in play, he's already produced seven hard hits and a pair of barrels, averaging 95.2 mph off the bat. Tonight he faces Kevin Gausman, who is making his Cubs debut. Gausman is a seasoned arm with a lethal splitter, but he's been more susceptible to power from right-handed batters this year, surrendering nine homers in 215 at-bats to righties compared to just six in 279 at-bats against lefties. Witt is seeing the ball perfectly right now, and I'll gladly take +425 for him to elevate one out of Kauffman.

GARY'S PICK

RONEL BLANCOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBHouston Astros· -140

The Astros have made it explicitly clear that Ronel Blanco is on a strict workload limit, capping him around 85 pitches as he builds back from elbow surgery. He hasn't completed six innings in any of his three starts since returning, and his efficiency has been poor, issuing eight walks and yielding 12 earned runs over 14.2 innings. Against a patient Padres lineup that can grind out at-bats and drive up pitch counts, five full innings feels like an absolute ceiling here. I'm more than happy to bet on the short leash and the pitch limit keeping him in the dugout before the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -108

Merrill has been the engine of this Padres offense lately, racking up 19 hits and 11 RBIs over his last 15 games. He's well-positioned tonight hitting in the middle of the order against Ronel Blanco, who has struggled immensely against left-handed batters since his return, allowing a .914 OPS and three homers to lefties in just 36 at-bats. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado hitting ahead of him to create traffic, this price on Merrill staying heavily involved is a very solid look.

GARY'S PICK

SHOHEI OHTANITOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -118

Merrill Kelly has surrendered a staggering .885 OPS and 15 home runs to left-handed hitters this season. Now he has to face Shohei Ohtani, who is batting .417 over his last seven days and just launched two homers on Wednesday in Chicago. Kelly is giving up barrels at an alarming 13.2 percent clip, and Ohtani is perfectly positioned to punish that kind of contact profile under the roof in Phoenix.

GARY'S PICK

MERRILL KELLYPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -158

The Dodgers arrive in the desert desperate to snap a six-game losing streak, and Kelly is exactly the pitcher they want to see. He owns a 6.33 ERA at Chase Field, and his overall expected ERA sits north of seven. With the sheer volume of hard contact Kelly allows, the loaded top half of this Los Angeles order is going to push across at least three runs before his night is over.

GARY'S PICK

DREW RASMUSSENK'S OVER 5.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -125

Rasmussen comes into Seattle absolutely dealing. In his last two starts, he racked up 10 and 9 strikeouts while generating a massive 38% whiff rate in both outings. He has clearly found an extra gear with his arsenal, and tonight he gets a dream matchup. The Mariners strike out at a high clip as a team, and the middle to lower third of this new-look Seattle lineup features multiple bats — like Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, and Colt Emerson — whiffing well over 30% of the time recently. I love Rasmussen to rack up at least six punchouts here.

GARY'S PICK

CHANDLER SIMPSONSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -143

Simpson is exactly the type of hitter you want to back for a singles prop. He relies entirely on bat-to-ball skills and elite speed rather than power. Over his last two weeks, his average exit velocity is just 82.4 mph, and he doesn't have a single barrel in 24 balls in play. Against a strike-thrower like Logan Gilbert who aggressively fills up the zone, Simpson is simply going to put the ball in play. He has cashed this over in 12 of his last 15 games by just slapping the ball and using his legs. At -143, we're getting a great price on a player perfectly built for this market.

GARY'S PICK

DILLON DINGLERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +112

Dillon Dingler is seeing beach balls at the plate. The Tigers' catcher has easily cleared this 1.5 total bases mark in four straight games, going 9-for-19 in that stretch with a home run in three consecutive outings. He's batting .400 with a 1.238 OPS over the last seven days and looks entirely locked in from the right side. San Francisco's reliance on a bullpen game tonight means Dingler will see a revolving door of relievers, many of whom have been heavily taxed over the past week. Taking a hitter this hot to grab a couple of bases at plus money is an easy addition to the card.

GARY'S PICK

GLEYBER TORRESRUNS SCORED OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +115

The Tigers' offense is humming right now, putting up at least eight runs in six of their last eight games. Gleyber Torres has been a major catalyst hitting out of the two-hole. He has crossed the plate in four consecutive games, tallying seven runs in that span while getting on base consistently ahead of the big bats in the middle of the order. Tonight, he gets a Giants pitching staff that is limping into a bullpen game behind opener JT Brubaker. With the volume of traffic Detroit is putting on the basepaths right now, getting plus money on the second hitter in a surging lineup to score a run is excellent value.

Research

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FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Esteury Ruiz
Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .839 OPS, bats 9th.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Xavier Edwards
Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .765 OPS, bats 4th.
CUT LISTLAA tonight
George Klassen
Starts tonight for LAA — 11.27 xERA behind a 11.57 ERA.
BULLPENOAK @ BOS
Boston Red Sox pen: 17 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston's used six of its eight relievers on more than one of the last three days, and Bello logging five innings across two outings is bulk work, not single-inning duty — that's a staff trying to protect the rest of the group. Weissert ground through 48 pitches for 1.7 innings, the kind of outing that usually costs a couple of days, which leaves Miller as the one arm in that group with real freshness if Boston needs a bridge tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Otto Lopez
Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .825 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Owen Caissie
Pickup vs George Klassen (11.27 xERA) — .727 OPS, bats 5th.
TEAM RECORDOAK @ BOS
Athletics 0-8 in Jack Perkins's last 8 starts
Oakland's lost all eight of Perkins's starts this year, and a streak that clean isn't one bad outing dragging the number down — it's the result every single time. That kind of run follows the dugout onto the field before the first pitch means anything, and Oakland carries it into Boston still looking for the first crack in it.
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CHW
White Sox 1-7 in Noah Schultz's last 8 starts
One win in eight Schultz starts, and the fact the last three all broke the same way tells me this isn't a number cooling off — it's exactly where this team is right now. Cleveland walks into a home team that hasn't given itself much recent evidence to lean on.
BULLPENTOR @ PHI
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Dallas throwing 74 pitches in one outing out of Toronto's pen is a starter's workload, not a reliever's, and that kind of number usually buys several days off, not one. Lee's back-to-back turn only cost him 15 pitches combined though, which makes him the more realistic bridge option tonight even on zero rest.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ TEX
Orioles 1-7 in Shane Baz's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 1-7 in Baz's eight starts, and closing that stretch with three straight losses means this isn't old history — it's the shape of the team's most recent form too. They carry that into Texas tonight still hunting for the outcome that's mostly eluded them.
TEAM RECORDNYM @ PIT
Pirates 7-1 in Carmen Mlodzinski's last 8 starts
Seven wins in eight Mlodzinski starts is about as close to automatic as a rotation turn gets, and a mark like that says as much about how comfortable this team plays behind him as it does about his own stuff. Pittsburgh brings that trust into a home game tonight against the Mets.
TEAM RECORDCIN @ WSH
Reds 1-7 in Chase Petty's last 8 starts
One win with Petty on the mound to open the season, seven straight losses since. He takes that skid on the road into Washington tonight, still chasing whatever clicked that first time.
PLATOON EDGETOR @ PHI
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Over 218 AB vs. Right, Nathan Lukes owns a .740 OPS versus .364 in 43 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Hector Rodriguez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.286 OPS, 0.000 AVG from the 6-hole.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Ryan Feltner (RHP)
Over 298 AB vs. Right, Alec Burleson owns a .967 OPS versus .527 in 137 AB the other way. He sees RHP Ryan Feltner tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
STREAKNYM @ PIT
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
Six straight unders and the books still haven't backed off — tonight's total actually climbs to 8.25, the richest ask of the whole run. That's the real test: a number sitting further above the recent scoring pace than at any point in this stretch, against Pittsburgh.
P final total 10 vs 8.25
CUT LISTARI tonight
Merrill Kelly
Starts tonight for ARI — 7.17 xERA behind a 5.04 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
STREAKATL @ NYY
ATL have won 7 straight
Seven straight with nearly four runs of margin a night isn't a team stealing close games — that's a club clicking everywhere, not living off one lucky swing repeating itself. The road trip to New York is the toughest setting this streak's faced, but a gap built that wide over seven games tends to hold up.
P team lost 2-3
HR THREATAthletics @ Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela
Gary's Take Ceddanne Rafaela has cleared this prop in six of his last 15 games, yet the market is hanging +850 on him to do it again tonight. That price completely ignores the current form of a guy hitting second in a lineup that has scored 30 runs over its last three games.
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 2 TB
STARTER FORMCOL @ STL
Ryan Feltner: 11.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Feltner's getting hit hard in all three of these starts, not one disaster skewing an otherwise fine line — hitters have squared him up early and often every time out. There's no strong form underneath it to lean on either, since the season number was already rough before this stretch started.
P 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
PLATOON EDGEDET @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Keider Montero (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert carries a .768 OPS vs. Right (198 AB) against .145 the other way (34 AB), and faces RHP Keider Montero from the 6th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ PHI
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 3rd against Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Over 201 AB vs. Right, Jesus Sanchez owns a .795 OPS versus .364 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Zack Wheeler tonight hitting 3rd, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-1, 2 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Esmerlyn Valdez's vs. Left line (1.238 OPS, 52 AB) sits well above his .813 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Zac Thornton throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
TEAM RECORDOAK @ BOS
Red Sox 6-2 in Payton Tolle's last 8 starts
Boston's won five straight with Tolle on the mound, and that's the more relevant number than anything from earlier in the year — this is current form, not a stat that's gone stale. Whatever's clicking for this team right now, it's clicking every time he takes the ball.
PLATOON EDGELAA @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws George Klassen (RHP), batting 1st
Kyle Stowers carries a .840 OPS vs. Right (263 AB) against .530 the other way (77 AB), and faces RHP George Klassen from the 1st spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 4-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
TEAM RECORDTOR @ PHI
Phillies 6-2 in Zack Wheeler's last 8 starts
Six wins in eight Wheeler starts is the kind of number that lets a team play loose, trusting the night's already tilted their way before the first pitch settles anything. Philadelphia brings that comfort into a home start tonight against Toronto.
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ MIL
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brice Turang's vs. Right line (.893 OPS, 312 AB) sits well above his .583 mark the other way (113 AB). Tonight's starter Zebby Matthews throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ STL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Mickey Moniak's vs. Right line (.956 OPS, 214 AB) sits well above his .615 mark the other way (52 AB). Tonight's starter Kyle Leahy throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .524 OPS in L15 — draws RHP George Klassen
Otto Lopez's .524 OPS over the last 15 days (54 PA) trails his .825 season mark, down 0.301. Tonight he draws RHP George Klassen — his weaker side: a .795 OPS vs RHP across 340 AB.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
BULLPENCHC @ KC
Chicago Cubs pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Thielbar's the one real worry in this Cubs pen — the only arm that went back-to-back, and doing it in an inning-plus on 31 pitches wasn't clean. Everybody else in that group has at least a day of separation somewhere in the stretch, so Kansas City's really only pitching around one name tonight.
HR THREATOrioles @ Rangers
Brandon Nimmo
Gary's Take Brandon Nimmo has been swinging a hot bat for Texas, launching a pair of homers over his last four games and hitting .409 over the last week. Tonight he draws right-hander Shane Baz, who carries a stark platoon split.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB
HR THREATAthletics @ Red Sox
Wilyer Abreu
Gary's Take Wilyer Abreu is absolutely obliterating the baseball right now, racking up four home runs over his last seven days and barreling five of the 22 balls he's put in play. He brings a 94.7 mph average exit velocity into a matchup against Jack Perkins, who is bleeding hard contact and struggles to keep the ball on the ground.
P 0 HR — 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
STREAKOAK @ BOS
OAK have lost 5 straight
Outscored by 28 across five losses works out to better than five and a half runs a night for Oakland, which points to lopsided from the first few innings rather than late collapses. Boston's own four-game run has come with a plus-22 margin, so a team trying to snap a skid walks straight into the club doing the exact kind of damage that's been done to them.
P team lost 1-13
COOLING OFFCHC @ KC
Ian Happ: .410 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Daniel Lynch IV
Ian Happ's .410 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .727 season mark, down 0.317. Tonight he draws LHP Daniel Lynch IV — his weaker side: a .521 OPS vs LHP across 116 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCLE @ CHW
Brayan Rocchio: .389 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Schultz
Brayan Rocchio's .389 OPS over the last 15 days (48 PA) trails his .703 season mark, down 0.314. Tonight he draws LHP Noah Schultz — his weaker side: a .674 OPS vs LHP across 119 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGECIN @ WSH
CJ Abrams (bats L) hits 1st against Chase Petty (RHP)
Over 284 AB vs. Right, CJ Abrams owns a .994 OPS versus .743 in 141 AB the other way. He sees RHP Chase Petty tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEATL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.925 OPS, 310 AB) sits well above his .595 mark the other way (58 AB). Tonight's starter Tyler Mahle throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Cardinals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Braves. 2.95 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 vs Nationals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Blue Jays. 2.95 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFATL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .512 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Mahle
Ben Rice's .512 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .906 season mark, down 0.394. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Mahle — his stronger side: a .969 OPS vs RHP across 258 AB.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
COOLING OFFATL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .401 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tyler Mahle
Trent Grisham's .401 OPS over the last 15 days (46 PA) trails his .689 season mark, down 0.288. Tonight he draws RHP Tyler Mahle — his weaker side: a .672 OPS vs RHP across 233 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TWO STARTSDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Mariners (played), Sun 8/9 at Giants. 3.11 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFCOL @ STL
Jordan Walker: .577 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Feltner
Jordan Walker's .577 OPS over the last 15 days (51 PA) trails his .834 season mark, down 0.257. Tonight he draws RHP Ryan Feltner — his weaker side: a .807 OPS vs RHP across 325 AB.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HR THREATMets @ Pirates
Francisco Lindor
Gary's Take Lindor's locked in right now — four homers and twelve RBI over his last fifteen games, and he went deep again just last night in Cleveland. He's a switch hitter, so tonight he's swinging from the left side against Mlodzinski, and that's exactly where Mlodzinski has been hittable all year — a near-.760 OPS and six homers allowed to lefty bats compared to a sub-.600 OPS and a single homer against righties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATAngels @ Marlins
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is running hotter than Kyle Stowers right now. Four home runs over his last fifteen games, a .929 OPS in that stretch, and the underlying contact backs up the numbers — 94.4 mph average exit velocity with ten hard-hit balls recently.
P 0 HR — 4-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ KC
Nico Hoerner: .966 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (53 PA) he is at a .966 OPS, up 0.282 on his .684 season mark. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
HR THREATTwins @ Brewers
Royce Lewis
Gary's Take Royce Lewis is swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball right now. He's belted three home runs over his last seven games, hitting .435 with a staggering 1.371 OPS.
P 0 HR — 2-for-5, 3 TB
BULLPENCLE @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Brazobán and Murphy both pitched on back-to-back days after already throwing multi-inning outings — 39 and 41 pitches between them — so neither is walking into tonight fresh. Taylor, Richards, and Newcomb have only surfaced once in this stretch, which makes that trio Chicago's freshest source of length if this one against Cleveland is still close late.
BULLPENTB @ SEA
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Neither Booser nor Cleavinger was stretched far on their back-to-back turns — 14 and 23 pitches between them — so the lack of rest matters less than it looks on paper. Legumina's the one who actually burned mileage, 48 pitches across two outings, which leaves Grove, Wells, and Matz as the freshest names Tampa Bay's got if tonight runs long.
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Rays (played), Sun 8/9 at Cardinals (proj). 2.4 xERA this season.
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ KC
Jacob Webb / Ryan Zeferjahn
Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 6 saves, Ryan Zeferjahn 4. The role is live.
COOLING OFFOAK @ BOS
Jacob Wilson: .414 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Payton Tolle
Jacob Wilson's .414 OPS over the last 15 days (45 PA) trails his .694 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws LHP Payton Tolle — his weaker side: a .626 OPS vs LHP across 98 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HR THREATMets @ Pirates
Carson Benge
Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better than Benge — nine hits in his last twenty-six at-bats, two home runs, and a slugging percentage over 1.000 across his last seven games. He's a lefty bat hitting cleanup, and Mlodzinski's split says the same thing it says for Lindor: this is a pitcher who's had real trouble with left-handed power this season.
P 0 HR — 2-for-2, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKDET @ SF
Colt Keith: 1.102 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (40 PA) he is at a 1.102 OPS, up 0.356 on his .746 season mark. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKOAK @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.058 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 57 PA: a 1.058 OPS versus .800 for the season, 0.258 above his norm. He has 15 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
REGRESSIONOAK @ BOS
Jack Perkins: 6.72 ERA vs 4.01 xERA
That 6.72 ERA reads like a disaster, but it's not who Perkins has actually been — the contact against him lines up with a 4.01, the better part of three runs better. I'd expect the version of him that shows up going forward to look a lot more like that second number than the first.
P 3 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
COOLING OFFNYM @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .571 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton
Esmerlyn Valdez's .571 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .959 season mark, down 0.388. Tonight he draws LHP Zac Thornton — his stronger side: a 1.238 OPS vs LHP across 52 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Pirates (played), Sun 8/9 vs Twins (proj). 2.61 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Brewers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Mets. 3.33 xERA this season.
STREAKOAK @ BOS
BOS have won 4 straight
Four straight and a plus-22 margin means Boston isn't scraping by — that's more than five runs a night of separation, the kind built on putting games away early. An Oakland team riding its own five-game skid and a minus-28 differential is about the softest matchup this run could ask for to keep climbing.
P team won 1-13
COOLING OFFCIN @ WSH
Nasim Nunez: .309 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Chase Petty
Nasim Nunez's .309 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .589 season mark, down 0.28. Tonight he draws RHP Chase Petty — his weaker side: a .570 OPS vs RHP across 230 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
STREAKMIN @ MIL
MIL games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Four straight unders and tonight's total jumps to 8, the richest ask of the whole stretch. That makes tonight the toughest number of the run to clear, sitting further above the recent scoring pace than at any point this week against Minnesota.
P final total 14 vs 8
BULLPENCLE @ CHW
Cleveland Guardians pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
When a catcher's taking the mound, like Cleveland did with Hedges this stretch, that's a bullpen being protected, not trusted — and nine different arms across three games is more churn than any pen wants to show that fast. Herrin's the one name in that group with real separation; whatever Cleveland gets late tonight probably comes down to him.
STREAKCIN @ WSH
CIN have won 4 straight
Plus-11 over four games works out to under three runs a night of separation for Cincinnati — the profile of a team winning clean, not needing one blowout to pad the number. Going 7-3 over the last ten says this wasn't a hot week rescuing a bad month; the record was already trending up before the streak piled on.
P team lost 3-5
HEAT CHECKMIN @ MIL
Royce Lewis: 1.034 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 46 PA: a 1.034 OPS versus .735 for the season, 0.299 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ KC
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.181 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 57 PA: a 1.181 OPS versus .937 for the season, 0.244 above his norm. He has 26 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMMIN @ MIL
Zebby Matthews: 8.36 ERA over his last 3 starts
The WHIP is the real tell here — jumping from 1.31 to 1.71 means Matthews is putting far more traffic on the bases than his season rate, not just getting hit hard on a couple of mistakes. Thirteen runs across three starts says the damage has come in bunches, whole innings unraveling rather than one bad pitch a night.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKTOR @ PHI
Bryson Stott: 1.070 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 39 PA: a 1.070 OPS versus .746 for the season, 0.324 above his norm. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKHOU @ SD
Jackson Merrill: .920 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (52 PA) he is at a .920 OPS, up 0.231 on his .689 season mark. He has 16 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-4, 3 TB
PARK WEATHERTOR @ PHI
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight
Conditions at Citizens Bank Park: Partly Cloudy, 88°, wind 13 mph, Out To CF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.
P final total 9 vs 7.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMLAD @ ARI
Roki Sasaki: 1.50 ERA over his last 3 starts
Better than a strikeout an inning and fewer baserunners than his season rate — that's not survival on soft-contact luck, that's an arm cutting down on the exact thing that built the mid-4 ERA in the first place. The season number hasn't caught up to it yet, but the pitcher taking the mound tonight hasn't looked like that line in a month.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONLAD @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 5.04 ERA vs 7.17 xERA
A 5.04 ERA already isn't pretty, and Kelly's actual contact quality says it should be running over two runs worse than that, closer to 7.17. That's about as clear a sign as these gaps come that the results have been propping up the performance and not the other way around.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ STL
Willi Castro: 1.122 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.122 OPS spans the last 15 days (33 PA) against a .760 season baseline, a 0.362 swing. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Cubs (played), Sun 8/9 at Diamondbacks (proj). 2.98 xERA this season.
TOMORROWTOR @ PHI
Max Scherzer: 7.92 ERA vs 5.44 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs PHI. A 7.92 ERA against a 5.44 expected ERA (2.48 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .285 vs .263 expected.
CLOSER WATCHATL @ NYY
David Bednar
David Bednar owns the ninth for the Yankees — 25 saves this season (next closest: Ryan Yarbrough with 2).
TOMORROWTOR @ PHI
Max Scherzer: 7.92 ERA vs 5.44 xERA
A 7.92 ERA against contact that grades out closer to 5.44 is a two-and-a-half-run gap, which is enormous — Scherzer's been pitching a lot better than that ugly number lets on. That's the arm Philadelphia should actually expect to see when he gets his turn tomorrow, not the one on the stat sheet right now.
BATTER VS ARMBAL @ TEX
Gunnar Henderson vs Nathan Eovaldi: .700
Gunnar Henderson has gone 7-for-10 (.700) across 10 career at-bats off Nathan Eovaldi. They meet again tonight. He enters cold (.582 OPS, L15).
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/3
Logan Webb
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rangers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Tigers. 3.82 xERA this season.
STARTER FORMTOR @ PHI
Zack Wheeler: 5.25 ERA over his last 3 starts
The WHIP is barely off his season number and still elite by any measure, so Wheeler isn't walking the yard or getting strung together for line drive after line drive. When the baserunner rate holds and the ERA still balloons like this, it's a mistake pitch or two doing outsized damage, not a wholesale breakdown in stuff.
P 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ STL
Alec Burleson: 1.029 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.029 OPS spans the last 15 days (52 PA) against a .831 season baseline, a 0.198 swing. He has 18 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ WSH
Tyler Stephenson: 1.075 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 32 PA: a 1.075 OPS versus .756 for the season, 0.319 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAT CHECKCLE @ CHW
Chase Meidroth: .994 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .994 OPS spans the last 15 days (43 PA) against a .758 season baseline, a 0.236 swing. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
REGRESSIONNYM @ PIT
Zac Thornton: 2.88 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
A 2.88 ERA with contact quality that grades out near 4.83 is a gap pushing two full runs — Thornton's been getting outs his underlying stuff hasn't necessarily earned. Doesn't mean it unwinds tonight against the Mets, but that's a number living on borrowed time.
P 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
HEAT CHECKBAL @ TEX
Ezequiel Duran: .995 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 48 PA: a .995 OPS versus .787 for the season, 0.208 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ WSH
Jacob Young: 1.069 OPS in Last 15 Days
That 1.069 OPS spans the last 15 days (27 PA) against a .707 season baseline, a 0.362 swing. He has 9 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.44 ERA vs 5.2 xERA
Leahy's sitting on a 3.44 that his contact numbers don't fully back up — the expected number is almost two runs uglier, at 5.2. I'm not paying full price for that ERA tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
REGRESSIONNYM @ PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.15 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
Even with that 7-1 team record behind him, Mlodzinski's actual contact numbers say he's been getting away with more than his ERA lets on — close to a run and two-thirds of separation is real. The record's earned, but the process underneath it is shakier than the win total suggests.
P 3 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
STARTER FORMBAL @ TEX
Shane Baz: 1.62 ERA over his last 3 starts
Three earned runs allowed across those three trips to the mound says Baz has been finding outs with more than just soft contact — he's pitching deep into games and not letting what damage there is turn into runs. Whatever's dragging Baltimore's record down with him, it isn't him lately.
P 8 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
REGRESSIONCOL @ STL
Mickey Moniak: .278 AVG vs .228 xBA
Mickey Moniak's .278 average comes against a .228 expected (xBA) on 289 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .374 against a .304 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
REGRESSIONDET @ SF
JT Brubaker: 3.17 ERA vs 4.64 xERA
JT Brubaker carries a 3.17 ERA against a 4.64 expected ERA (1.47 run gap), so he has been outperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .215 off him vs a .261 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.
P 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Chase Petty
Petty's ERA is 4.5, his xERA 5.27 — both middling, neither a disaster, and the smallest gap of this group. Tonight's start reads as a normal outing, not a warning sign. Hold. Unspectacular on both counts, but nothing here forces the move tonight.
RETURN WATCHCOL — return listed 8/7
Blas Castano
Listed back 8/7 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.
REGRESSIONHOU @ SD
Luis Campusano: .303 AVG vs .257 xBA
Across 126 plate appearances, Luis Campusano carries a .303 average versus a .257 xBA. His wOBA sits at .390 against a .341 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 1 BB
BALLPARKLAD @ ARI
Merrill Kelly owns a 6.33 ERA at Chase Field — 4.27 everywhere else
Two runs of separation between his home and road ERA is too wide to wave off as noise, and the contact numbers back it up — hitters are squaring Kelly up harder in this building specifically. Stack that on top of an ERA that's already running well ahead of his contact quality, and the version of him on the mound tonight has two things working against it.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Kyle Leahy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.2 xERA behind a 3.44 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ SEA
Drew Rasmussen
Streamer vs SEA — 3.14 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 0.93 WHIP.
REGRESSIONCHC @ KC
Daniel Lynch IV: 1.96 ERA vs 3.4 xERA
A 1.96 ERA is video-game good, and Lynch's expected number, 3.4, says the actual stuff underneath is closer to solid than spectacular — a run and a half of daylight between the two. That gap usually finds its way back to the pitcher eventually.
P 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
STARTER FORMHOU @ SD
Robbie Ray: 1.13 ERA over his last 3 starts
The strikeout stuff hasn't dipped at all, but the WHIP says Ray's actually allowing a bit more traffic than his season rate, not less, and the results still came out dominant anyway. That's bend-but-not-break pitching, backed by enough swing-and-miss to escape the innings that got sideways all three times through.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
BALLPARKCHC @ KC
Daniel Lynch IV owns a 1.09 ERA at Kauffman Stadium — 2.95 everywhere else
A sub-1.10 ERA at home against a mid-2s number on the road is a wide gap on its own, and a .141 average against widens it further — hitters simply aren't getting to Lynch in this building the way they do everywhere else. That split's showing up over 24 games, not four or five, so the venue is genuinely part of the equation.
P 1.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
TOMORROWCOL @ STL
Kyle Freeland: 6.81 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 6.81 ERA against a 5.23 expected ERA (1.58 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .303 vs .284 expected.
TOMORROWCOL @ STL
Kyle Freeland: 6.81 ERA vs 5.23 xERA
6.81 looks brutal on its face, but Freeland's actual contact quality checks in a run and a half better than that, at 5.23. Still not a great number, but a real gap between what's happened and what he's earned heading into his turn against St. Louis tomorrow.
REGRESSIONHOU @ SD
Robbie Ray: 3.08 ERA vs 4.42 xERA
Even with three dominant starts on the board, Ray's season-long 3.08 is running better than a run ahead of his 4.42 expected mark. The swing-and-miss stuff backs up the strikeouts; the ERA's gotten some help too.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONLAA @ MIA
Tyler Phillips: 3.53 ERA vs 4.73 xERA
Phillips's 3.53 is outrunning his contact quality by a bit more than a run — 4.73 is closer to what his actual stuff supports. Solid pitcher, just not quite as clean as the ERA reads.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
TOMORROWCHC @ KC
Clay Holmes: 2.39 ERA vs 3.9 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs KC. A 2.39 ERA against a 3.9 expected ERA (1.51 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .206 vs .251 expected.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.599 OPS, 0.218 AVG from the 2-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSCLE @ CHW
Parker Messick
Streamer vs CHW — 3.09 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.06 WHIP.
STARTER FORMMIN @ MIL
Shane Drohan: 5.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18 innings, 10 earned runs, 15 hits. That 5.00 ERA runs 1.52 over his 3.48 season number.
P 5 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
STARTER FORMCIN @ WSH
Cade Cavalli: 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
He has allowed 4 earned runs over his last 18 innings (2.00 ERA) with a 1.17 WHIP (1.29 season) — a different pitcher than the 3.52 season line says.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
BATTER VS ARMTB @ SEA
Julio Rodriguez vs Drew Rasmussen: .300
Julio Rodriguez's career line off Drew Rasmussen is 3-for-10, a .300 average over 10 at-bats with 1 home run — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.713 OPS, L15).
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
RUNNING GAMENYM @ PIT
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Luis Torrens (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pittsburgh Pirates attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 15 of 38 runners (39%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Pittsburgh Pirates stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
CUT LISTSD tonight
Luis Rengifo
Still hitting 4th for SD — 0.632 OPS, 0.241 AVG from the 4-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSTB @ SEA
Logan Gilbert
Streamer vs TB — 3.63 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 0.99 WHIP.
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.638 OPS, 0.215 AVG from the 4-hole.
TOMORROWTOR @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.55 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TOR. A 5.55 ERA against a 4.3 expected ERA (1.25 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .278 vs .247 expected.
TOMORROWTOR @ PHI
Aaron Nola: 5.55 ERA vs 4.3 xERA
Nola's contact numbers say he deserved better than that 5.55, over a run and a quarter of separation from what he's actually allowed. He's closer to a mid-4s pitcher than a mid-5s one heading into his turn against Toronto tomorrow.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIN @ MIL
Shane Drohan
Streamer vs MIN — 3.31 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.17 WHIP.
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ MIL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 14%
Milwaukee Brewers steal 1 bags a game (115 on the season) and Ryan Jeffers has thrown out 6 of 43 runners (14%). Everything about tonight says they keep running.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMELAA @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Tyler Heineman (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Miami Marlins attempt 1.4 steals a game, but Tyler Heineman has cut down 15 of 44 runners (34%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases
CUT LISTCHW tonight
Brenton Doyle
Still hitting 6th for CHW — 0.578 OPS, 0.221 AVG from the 6-hole.
TOMORROWHOU @ SD
Michael King: 3.45 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
King's 3.45 is a touch better than the 4.55 his contact quality would suggest, about a run of cushion built in. Nothing alarming, just context for when he faces Houston tomorrow.
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/11
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/11 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMECHC @ KC
Chicago Cubs like to run — Carter Jensen (38% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Carter Jensen owns a 38% caught-stealing rate (17 of 45) and Chicago Cubs run anyway — 0.7 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.
P Chicago Cubs stole 1 base
TOMORROWHOU @ SD
Michael King: 3.45 ERA vs 4.55 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs HOU. A 3.45 ERA against a 4.55 expected ERA (1.1 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .217 vs .244 expected.
CUT LISTMIA tonight
Leo Jimenez
Still hitting 6th for MIA — 0.596 OPS, 0.209 AVG from the 6-hole.
CLOSER WATCHDET @ SF
Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker
Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
FIRST INNINGBAL @ TEX
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BAL @ TEX
The lineups have kept this quiet, but the two arms on the mound are the real wildcard — Eovaldi's allowed eight homers in his own first innings this year and Baz isn't far off him on contact allowed that early either. I'd expect traffic even if the zero holds, and if a run does slip through, it's more likely one mistake pitch than a lineup stringing together a rally.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOMORROWATL @ NYY
Chris Sale: 2.08 ERA vs 3.04 xERA
Sale's 2.08 is excellent no matter how you slice it, though his contact quality grades closer to 3.04 — call it a run of cushion in the ERA. Doesn't change the read on him, just tempers expectations slightly heading into his turn against the Yankees tomorrow.
TOMORROWCLE @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.01 ERA vs 4.99 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CLE. A 4.01 ERA against a 4.99 expected ERA (0.98 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .254 vs .262 expected.
TOMORROWCLE @ CHW
Anthony Kay: 4.01 ERA vs 4.99 xERA
Kay's 4.01 and his 4.99 expected mark are only about a run apart — mild, but he's gotten a slightly better shake than his contact quality earned heading into tomorrow's start against Cleveland.
TOMORROWATL @ NYY
Chris Sale: 2.08 ERA vs 3.04 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs NYY. A 2.08 ERA against a 3.04 expected ERA (0.96 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .215 vs .221 expected.
BALLPARKATL @ NYY
Max Fried's ERA jumps to 4.43 at Yankee Stadium (4 games there)
A .190 average against with a 4.43 ERA doesn't add up to a pitcher getting hit hard in this park — it reads more like a couple of innings where the little contact he allowed did outsized damage. The 2.56 ERA across a much deeper road sample is the more reliable read on where Fried's stuff actually sits, home start or not.
P 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
TOMORROWCHC @ KC
Seth Lugo: 4.41 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs CHC. A 4.41 ERA against a 5.34 expected ERA (0.93 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .274 vs .277 expected.
TOMORROWCHC @ KC
Seth Lugo: 4.41 ERA vs 5.34 xERA
Lugo's actual ERA is running about a run ahead of his contact quality, 4.41 against a 5.34 expected mark. Minor gap, but worth filing away before he faces the Cubs tomorrow.
BALLPARKCOL @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Kyle Leahy pitches to a 2.95 ERA
A full run of separation between Leahy's home and road number, on comparable workloads both places, isn't a small-sample fluke. A .250 average against is fairly ordinary, which means the better results in this park aren't hitters going cold on him — something about pitching at Busch is just working in his favor, and that's the version of him on the mound again tonight.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
RUNNING GAMETB @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 14%
Liam Hicks is catching tonight at 14% on the season (6-for-43 throwing), and Seattle Mariners attempt 1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Seattle Mariners stole 1 base
TOMORROWCIN @ WSH
Chase Burns: 2.35 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs WSH. A 2.35 ERA against a 3.18 expected ERA (0.83 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .202 vs .207 expected.
TOMORROWCIN @ WSH
Chase Burns: 2.35 ERA vs 3.18 xERA
Burns's 2.35 and his 3.18 expected number are less than a run apart, the smallest gap in this group — I wouldn't read too much into it before he faces Washington tomorrow.
RUNNING GAMEOAK @ BOS
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%
Jonah Heim is catching tonight at 16% on the season (7-for-45 throwing), and Boston Red Sox attempt 1.1 steals a game. The track meet is on.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
FIRST INNINGATL @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Mahle's been genuinely hittable in the first inning — a 6.00 ERA and three homers allowed that early — and Fried hasn't been much sharper himself in that frame at 4.85. That combination has the shape of a game that opens up rather than stays tight into the middle innings.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGNYM @ PIT
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Mlodzinski's been lockdown in the first inning all year, a .138 average against backing up that 2.00 ERA, so the Mets aren't walking into a friendly look. Thornton's the opposite case entirely — a 7.50 ERA and .370 average against that early — which means the real action tonight is more likely to come once Pittsburgh gets a set of eyes on him in the first.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
FIRST INNINGTOR @ PHI
TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Wheeler and Soriano are both legitimately tough in the first inning this year, not just good pitchers catching cold lineups — a .156 average against for Wheeler and .205 for Soriano. Expect both sides still searching for their timing when the second inning starts, with a mistake pitch a likelier cause of an early run than either lineup stringing together quality at-bats.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGMIN @ MIL
MIL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Drohan's been about as tough as it gets in the first inning, a .167 average against, so Minnesota isn't getting a soft landing at the top of the order. Matthews has already allowed four homers in his own first innings this year, and that's a real opening for Milwaukee even with their bats having gone quiet lately.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCOL @ STL
STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Colorado's seeing the sharp version of Leahy early, a 2.57 ERA and a .153 average against in his first innings this season. Feltner's the mismatch on the other side — five homers allowed in just sixteen innings of first-inning work — and that's probably why tonight's number likes a run scoring despite St. Louis's quiet history early.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/15
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/15 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.

Graded results

Games

L
Phillies -1.5 -102
MLB · 5-4
W
Nationals ML -119
MLB · 3-5
W
Cubs ML -165
MLB · 6-4
L
Brewers -1.5 +119
MLB · 8-6
W
Rangers ML -139
MLB · 1-2
W
Yankees ML -122
MLB · 2-3
L
Marlins ML -147
MLB · 4-3
L
Dodgers -1.5 -111
MLB · 3-4
W
Rays ML +104
MLB · 2-1
W
Guardians ML -135
MLB · 8-2
L
Padres ML -108
MLB · 6-3
W
Mets ML +120
MLB · 6-4
W
Red Sox -1.5 -130
MLB · 1-13
W
Cardinals ML -165
MLB · 2-3
L
Tigers ML -136
MLB · 2-5

Props

L
Alec Burleson · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Alex Bregman · over
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Austin Wells · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Austin Wells · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 1
L
Bobby Witt Jr. · over
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Brandon Nimmo · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Brandon Nimmo · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Brett Baty · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Bryce Harper · over
Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 1
L
Bryce Harper · over
Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 0
W
Cade Cavalli · over
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 18
W
Carmen Mlodzinski · under
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 9
L
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 2
L
Ceddanne Rafaela · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Chandler Simpson · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Daniel Lynch IV · under
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 5
L
Dillon Dingler · over
Tigers @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Drew Rasmussen · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 8
W
Elly De La Cruz · over
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 2
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
George Klassen · over
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 4
L
Gleyber Torres · over
Tigers @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Griffin Conine · over
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 0
W
Jack Perkins · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 5
W
Jackson Chourio · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 1
W
Jackson Chourio · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 4
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Astros @ Padres · Actual 3
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Marcus Semien · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 1
L
Max Fried · under
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 19
L
Merrill Kelly · over
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Nathan Eovaldi · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 2
L
Noah Schultz · over
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 2
L
Parker Messick · under
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 2
W
Payton Tolle · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 14
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 1
L
Rhys Hoskins · over
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Ronel Blanco · under
Astros @ Padres · Actual 14
L
Royce Lewis · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 0
L
Ryan Feltner · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 5
L
Shane Drohan · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 4
L
Shohei Ohtani · over
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 0
L
Tyler Stephenson · over
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 0
W
Willi Castro · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 2
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Zack Wheeler · under
Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 4