Rays at Mariners
O/U 7 · RL Mariners -1.5
Rays ML+104
CONF 63%
WCashedFinal 2-1
The read
Friday night in Seattle, Tampa Bay comes in on a winning streak while the Mariners have recently struggled to score. Seattle is favored at home, but I’m backing Tampa Bay as the better team with a chance to win me a little more than I risk.
Drew Rasmussen gives me the edge among the starting pitchers. He has allowed very few runs lately, piled up strikeouts, and barely walked anyone. He has also done a better job than Logan Gilbert at limiting solid contact this season. Gilbert is capable, but Tampa Bay has already beaten him once, while Seattle’s hitters have struggled to score consistently.
Tampa Bay’s relief pitchers seal it for me. They have been excellent, keep runners off base, and should be fresh after a day off. Seattle’s relief pitchers have struggled lately and are missing Cole Wilcox, giving Tampa Bay the clear edge late if the game stays close. I’m picking the Rays to win.
The full analysis
Friday night under the lights at T-Mobile Park, Tampa Bay arrives riding a three-game winning streak while Seattle tries to respond after being shut out twice in its last three games. The market has the Mariners favored at home, but I’m backing the better team at plus money.
Drew Rasmussen gives me the starting-pitching edge. He has allowed two earned runs over his last 18 innings, with 24 strikeouts against three walks, and his season-long contact profile is stronger than Logan Gilbert’s. Gilbert is plenty capable, but Tampa Bay has already handled him once this season, while Seattle’s lineup has struggled to produce consistently.
The bullpen gap seals it. Tampa Bay’s current relief group owns a 2.74 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and it enters rested after Thursday’s off day. Seattle’s bullpen has been hit hard lately and is missing Cole Wilcox, creating a clear late-game advantage if this is close after six. At +104, the Rays moneyline is my play.
Props on this game
2Drew RasmussenOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-125
WActual 8
Rasmussen comes into Seattle absolutely dealing. In his last two starts, he racked up 10 and 9 strikeouts while generating a massive 38% whiff rate in both outings.
He has clearly found an extra gear with his arsenal, and tonight he gets a dream matchup. The Mariners strike out at a high clip as a team, and the middle to lower third of this new-look Seattle lineup features multiple bats — like Dominic Canzone, Cal Raleigh, and Colt Emerson — whiffing well over 30% of the time recently.
I love Rasmussen to rack up at least six punchouts here.
Chandler SimpsonOVER 0.5 Singles Singles-143
Not yet graded
Simpson is exactly the type of hitter you want to back for a singles prop. He relies entirely on bat-to-ball skills and elite speed rather than power.
Over his last two weeks, his average exit velocity is just 82.4 mph, and he doesn't have a single barrel in 24 balls in play. Against a strike-thrower like Logan Gilbert who aggressively fills up the zone, Simpson is simply going to put the ball in play.
He has cashed this over in 12 of his last 15 games by just slapping the ball and using his legs. At -143, we're getting a great price on a player perfectly built for this market.
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