Sports picks for Saturday, August 8, 2026

Chicago White Sox pen: 20.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Chicago’s pen is running on fumes after 20.7 innings in three games, with Sandlin and Richards effectively off the board. If Cleveland shortens the starter’s night, the White Sox will be forced into the soft part of their relief depth.

Philadelphia Phillies pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Philadelphia has covered 14.7 relief innings in three games, and nearly every important arm has been used more than once. Toronto’s edge comes from grinding out at-bats and making the Phillies test that tired depth.

Brewers 7-1 in Robert Gasser's last 8 starts

Milwaukee has won seven of Robert Gasser’s last eight starts and keeps delivering complete team efforts behind him. At home against Minnesota, the Brewers are the side I want.

Reds 7-1 in Chase Burns's last 8 starts

Cincinnati is 7-1 in Chase Burns’ last eight starts, making his turn one of the club’s most dependable winning spots. I’m backing that full-game pattern against Washington tonight.

Diamondbacks 7-1 in Brandon Pfaadt's last 8 starts

Arizona has won seven straight Brandon Pfaadt starts, and he brings his best recent form into the toughest test of that run. The Dodgers raise the price, but they do not scare me away from the Diamondbacks.

Athletics 1-7 in Gage Jump's last 8 starts

Oakland is 1-7 in Gage Jump’s last eight starts, and his nights keep turning into losses regardless of how the blame gets divided. Against a Boston club thriving behind Jake Bennett, I’m firmly on the Red Sox side.

Paul Goldschmidt (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot

Leading off against Chris Sale gives Paul Goldschmidt the ultimate setup on his dominant split side. The top spot guarantees maximum looks against a southpaw he is primed to damage early.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

LAD have lost 6 straight

Los Angeles Dodgers have dropped 6 straight, outscored by 20 runs over the skid; 2-8 across their last 10.

P team won 2-1

Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Aaron Nola (RHP)

Nathan Lukes gets his stronger platoon side against Aaron Nola and leads off, maximizing the edge. He has a clean opportunity to set the table immediately and earn an extra trip later.

P 3-for-6, 6 TB

Otto Lopez: .481 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Walbert Urena

Otto Lopez is in a deep contact rut, and facing righty Walbert Urena keeps him on his weaker side of the split. Don't expect a sudden bounce-back while his swing remains out of sync.

P 2-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB

Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Jackson Jobe (RHP), batting 6th

Hitting sixth gives Drew Gilbert a great opportunity to produce against right-hander Jackson Jobe. The platoon advantage masks his left-on-left struggles and sets him up nicely with runners on base.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Ben Rice: .502 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Chris Sale

Ben Rice is struggling with his timing, and drawing an elite southpaw like Chris Sale is the worst possible cure. Expect another tough night at the plate as the matchup works heavily against him.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot

Brice Turang leads off with his best split against a right-hander, giving Milwaukee an immediate way to pressure Bradley. The placement also maximizes his chance to see the matchup an extra time.

P 3-for-4, 4 TB

Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 5th against Walbert Urena (RHP)

Griffin Conine sits in an ideal middle-of-the-order spot facing righty Walbert Urena tonight. Erasing the left-on-left drag unlocks his best run-producing form in Miami.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Nationals 2-6 in Andrew Alvarez's last 8 starts

Washington has won only two of Andrew Alvarez's last eight starts, while Cincinnati keeps winning behind Chase Burns. That contrast leaves the Nationals at a clear starter-trend disadvantage.

Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 5th against Aaron Nola (RHP)

Jesus Sanchez brings his favorable left-on-right split into the cleanup spot against Aaron Nola. That turns a platoon advantage into a direct run-producing opportunity whenever Toronto puts runners aboard.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Red Sox 6-2 in Jake Bennett's last 8 starts

Boston is 6-2 in Jake Bennett’s last eight starts, while Oakland keeps losing behind Gage Jump. Both starter trends point cleanly toward the Red Sox.

Toronto Blue Jays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Toronto’s bullpen has logged 13.7 innings in three games, with Rogers and Varland carrying the most concerning workloads. The Jays need length from their starter because Philadelphia can make the remaining relief plan uncomfortable.

Giants 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts

Giants are 2-6 in Landen Roupp's last 8 starts this season — losers of his last 3 in a row. He starts tonight.

Phillies 2-6 in Aaron Nola's last 8 starts

Philadelphia is just 2-6 in Aaron Nola’s last eight starts, so this has not been a trustworthy team spot. Toronto has a legitimate opening to turn another Nola night into a Phillies loss.

Twins 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts

Twins are 6-2 in Taj Bradley's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.

Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot

Bryce Harper in the three-hole against Max Scherzer is a textbook split edge. Harper crushes right-handed pitching and gets key early at-bats to anchor Philadelphia's offense.

P 1-for-5, 4 TB

Jo Adell (bats R) hits 2nd against Anthony Kay (LHP)

Jo Adell gets the left-handed matchup that best unlocks his bat and hits second. That gives him early plate appearances plus an immediate run-producing chance if the leadoff man reaches.

P 1-for-5, 2 TB

San Francisco Giants pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

San Francisco’s 16.3 relief innings look worse because Houser absorbed 88 pitches, but his likely absence still removes a major source of length. Detroit needs to chase the starter early and force the Giants beyond the few arms equipped to cover multiple innings.

Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Robert Stock (RHP), batting 2nd

Brandon Lowe hits second against Robert Stock, putting one of his best platoon matchups near the top of the order. His overall numbers undersell how dangerous this specific spot can be.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB

Boston Red Sox pen: 16 relief IP over their last 3 games

Boston has thrown 16 relief innings in three games, but the work is spread well enough that the key arms remain usable. Oakland only gains a meaningful edge if it can force another short start and create a third straight heavy bullpen night.

Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Walbert Urena (RHP), batting 3rd

Slotting third against righty Walbert Urena puts Kyle Stowers right in his comfort zone. Seeing a right-hander unlocks his power potential and gives him prime RBI opportunities.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Esmerlyn Valdez: .571 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Robert Stock

Esmerlyn Valdez has slipped to a .571 OPS over his last 15 days and looks genuinely out of sync. Robert Stock also gets him on his less dangerous side, pointing toward another muted night.

P 1-for-2, 1 TB, 3 BB

Randy Dobnak: 1.16 ERA vs 4.86 xERA

Randy Dobnak’s 1.16 ERA is hiding a 4.86 xERA and far too much hard contact. Against the Cubs, I’m betting those well-struck balls stop finding gloves and start producing runs.

Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot

Rafael Devers in the cleanup spot against righty Jackson Jobe is a massive setup. Devers dominates right-handed pitching and gets to swing from his preferred side with runners on.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Gerrit Cole vs Matt Olson: 0-for-21, 14 K

Gerrit Cole owns Matt Olson, holding him hitless in 21 at-bats with 14 strikeouts. That total dominance neutralizes Atlanta's middle order whenever Olson steps in tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Zach Neto: .469 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sandy Alcantara

Zach Neto is lost at the plate over his last two weeks, and matching up against Sandy Alcantara offers no relief. Expect his cold streak to roll right through tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Cam Schlittler

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Cardinals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Braves. 2.95 xERA this season.

Jacob Wilson: .388 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jake Bennett

Jacob Wilson's swing has completely deserted him, and drawing left-hander Jake Bennett compounds his issues. Trying to break out on his weaker split makes tonight a long shot.

P 2-for-5, 4 TB

Ian Happ: .380 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Seth Lugo

Ian Happ has managed only a .380 OPS over his last 15 days, but Seth Lugo puts him back on his stronger side. This is the cooling bat I am willing to back for a rebound tonight.

P 2-for-4, 6 TB

Brayan Rocchio: .397 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Anthony Kay

Brayan Rocchio enters with a .397 OPS over his last 15 days and draws Anthony Kay from his weaker side. With neither form nor matchup offering relief, another quiet performance is my stronger read.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB

Red Sox are 4-1 vs Athletics this season

Boston’s 4-1 season record against Oakland confirms that the Red Sox have handled this opponent, although the 13-1 blowout makes the gap look a little louder. I’ll use it as supporting evidence for Boston, not the central reason to bet them.

Nationals are 4-1 vs Reds this season

Nationals lead the season series 4-1 over Reds. WSH won the last meeting 8-2.

Jesús Luzardo

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 vs Nationals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Blue Jays. 2.95 xERA this season.

Royce Lewis: 1.071 OPS in Last 15 Days

Royce Lewis owns a 1.071 OPS over the last 15 days, and the sustained production is backed by established power. One clean swing can clear this modest bar, so I like over 0.5 total bases.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Bryce Harper

Gary's Take Harper is the Phillies bat I want against Max Scherzer. He has three homers and a .944 OPS over his last 15 days, with two recent barrels and a disciplined approach that should force Scherzer into the zone.

P 1 HR — 1-for-5, 4 TB

Mookie Betts vs Brandon Pfaadt: .435

Mookie Betts has repeatedly solved Brandon Pfaadt, posting a .435 mark in their history. That familiar success gives Betts a strong opportunity to break out of his recent cold stretch.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Troy Melton

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Mariners (played), Sun 8/9 at Giants. 3.11 xERA this season.

Nasim Nunez: .291 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Chase Burns

Nasim Nunez has collapsed to a .291 OPS over his last 15 days and now faces Chase Burns on his weaker split. I see no matchup-based reason to expect the slump to end tonight.

P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB

Sal Stewart

Gary's Take Stewart gets the platoon advantage against Andrew Alvarez and brings four home runs over his last 15 days with three barrels among his last 20 balls in play. Alvarez’s 92 mph fastball and 43.6% hard-hit rate leave room for damage, especially with Stewart batting second in 90-degree weather and the wind moving toward center.

P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB

Ceddanne Rafaela: 1.037 OPS in Last 15 Days

Ceddanne Rafaela is tearing the cover off the ball with a four-figure OPS over the last two weeks. His 1.5 total-bases line is prime pickings given his relentless extra-base rhythm.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Jacob deGrom: 7.62 ERA over his last 3 starts

Jacob deGrom has a 7.62 ERA over his last three starts, with repeated traffic replacing his usual control. Baltimore gets to attack the pitcher he is right now, not the reputation attached to his name.

P 5 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 1.173 OPS in Last 15 Days

Pete Crow-Armstrong's 1.173 OPS over the last 15 days builds on an already excellent season and established power. He can beat the number with one extra-base hit, so I am backing over 1.5 total bases.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB

Ryan Walker / JT Brubaker

Shared ninth in SF: Ryan Walker 3 saves, JT Brubaker 1. The role is live.

Gabriel Hughes

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Rays (played), Sun 8/9 at Cardinals (proj). 2.4 xERA this season.

Jared Jones

Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Brewers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Mets. 3.33 xERA this season.

Trent Grisham: .377 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Chris Sale

Trent Grisham's surface numbers look brutal, but getting to swing from his stronger side against southpaw Chris Sale gives him a fighting chance. Look for his contact quality to finally translate.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

CHW have lost 4 straight

Chicago White Sox have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 23 runs over the skid; 4-6 across their last 10.

P team won 3-6

Brandon Marsh: .461 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer

Brandon Marsh's slump is misleading, as his hard contact simply hasn't been falling for hits. Drawing Max Scherzer on his favorable righty split sets him up well to break through.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Willi Castro: 1.134 OPS in Last 15 Days

Willi Castro is riding a concentrated but substantial heater, producing a 1.134 OPS over the last 15 days. A line requiring only one hit is too forgiving for this form, so I am on over 0.5 total bases.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Jackson Merrill: .943 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jackson Merrill's .943 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a legitimate upward correction rather than a brief spike. The underlying power never disappeared, making him a strong damage candidate against Houston.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

CLE games have gone OVER 4 straight

Cleveland Guardians games have gone OVER 4 straight — 12 runs a night against an average line of 10. Tonight's number sits at 9.5.

P final total 9 vs 9.5

Los Angeles Angels pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games

The Angels have needed 13.3 bullpen innings in three games, and Saucedo is likely unavailable while several other useful arms carry real mileage. Miami can expose the reduced depth by making the starter work and reaching the bridge early.

Colt Keith: 1.076 OPS in Last 15 Days

Colt Keith's 1.076 OPS over the last 15 days deserves respect, but 4.5 total bases demands an exceptional outcome. San Francisco can allow him some production and still cash the under, which is my play.

P 0-for-0, 0 TB, 3 BB

Max Scherzer: 7.92 ERA vs 5.44 xERA

Max Scherzer’s 7.92 ERA should improve toward his 5.44 xERA, but that is still an ugly expected level. I see room for a partial rebound against Philadelphia, not a return to dominance.

P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Logan Henderson

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Pirates (played), Sun 8/9 vs Twins (proj). 2.6 xERA this season.

Wilyer Abreu (bats L) draws Gage Jump (LHP), batting 3rd

Wilyer Abreu carries a .949 OPS vs. Left (131 AB) against .723 the other way (302 AB), and faces LHP Gage Jump from the 3rd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.

Cam Smith: .989 OPS in Last 15 Days

Cam Smith's .989 OPS over the last 15 days has held long enough to treat the surge seriously. His season power gives it substance, and I want exposure to his bat while the damage remains this consistent.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Corbin Carroll: 1-for-17, 6 K

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has held Corbin Carroll to one hit in 17 at-bats with six strikeouts. Carroll has yet to show a reliable answer, setting up another quiet night.

P 1-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB

Dillon Dingler

Gary's Take Dingler has four homers in his last 15 games and five barrels among his 26 recent balls in play. That power is supported by a .517 expected slugging percentage, so I’m willing to buy the biggest price among Detroit’s established threats.

P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB

Bryson Stott: 1.042 OPS in Last 15 Days

Bryson Stott is locked in at the plate, carrying a 1.042 OPS over his last 41 plate appearances. Taking on Toronto pitching at home makes his 1.5 total-bases line very attractive.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB

Ronald Acuna Jr. (bats R) gets a RHP from the 2nd spot

Hitting second against Gerrit Cole plays right into Ronald Acuña Jr.'s hands. Despite the right-on-right matchup, Acuña puts up his best production against righties and will pressure Cole early.

P 1-for-4, 4 TB

Josh Bell

Gary's Take I’m taking a shot on Josh Bell to homer at +550. Bell will hit right-handed against Robert Gasser, who has surrendered nine home runs in 169 at-bats against right-handed hitters this season.

P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

Tampa Bay Rays pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

Tampa Bay's bullpen has worked 12.7 innings in three games, and Cleavinger's likely absence makes the group thinner than that total suggests. Seattle can exploit it by forcing an early pitching change and making the Rays navigate their reduced depth.

Kyle Schwarber: .633 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer

Kyle Schwarber is out of rhythm and struggling to drive the ball. Facing Max Scherzer on his weaker side of the split makes a sudden explosion tough to envision tonight.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB

Matt Olson: 1.121 OPS in Last 15 Days

Matt Olson is operating at absolute peak form with a 1.121 OPS over the last two weeks. Carrying 33 homers into Yankee Stadium makes over 1.5 total bases a strong play.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Kyle Stowers: 1.015 OPS in Last 15 Days

Kyle Stowers is crushing the ball with a four-figure OPS across 52 plate appearances. Expect him to stay aggressive and clear his 1.5 total-bases line in Miami tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 25 saves this season (next closest: Caleb Kilian with 8).

Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).

Tarik Skubal

Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Cubs (played), Sun 8/9 at Diamondbacks (proj). 2.97 xERA this season.

Gage Jump: 7.53 ERA over his last 3 starts

Gage Jump’s 7.53 ERA over his last three starts reflects a sustained inability to keep hitters off base. Boston is equipped to turn that traffic into another long night unless his command changes dramatically.

P 6 IP, 2 ER, 11 K

Jarren Duran: .830 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jarren Duran is swinging a sharp bat well above his season baseline over his last 53 plate appearances. Facing Oakland at Fenway gives him every chance to cover his 1.5 total-bases mark.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Shane Bieber: 5.11 ERA vs 7.43 xERA

Shane Bieber's 5.11 ERA actually flatters a profile carrying a 7.43 xERA. The hard contact and barrels say more damage is coming, and Philadelphia is a poor opponent to trust him against.

Andruw Monasterio (bats R) hits 6th against Gage Jump (LHP)

Hitting fifth against lefty Gage Jump maximizes Andruw Monasterio's massive split advantage. He becomes an immediate middle-of-the-order threat with RBI chances waiting for him.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 2 BB

Brandon Pfaadt: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts

Brandon Pfaadt owns a 0.92 ERA across his last three starts while working deeper and limiting damage without relying solely on strikeouts. The Dodgers are facing a much sharper pitcher than his season line advertises.

P 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 K

Logan Webb

Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rangers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Tigers. 3.82 xERA this season.

Gavin Williams: 0.92 ERA over his last 3 starts

Gavin Williams has a 0.92 ERA over his last three starts because hitters are barely reaching and he is finishing them with elite strikeout stuff. The White Sox are catching him at a level well beyond what his season numbers suggest.

P 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K

Max Scherzer: 5.25 ERA over his last 3 starts

Max Scherzer’s recent 5.25 ERA is an improvement, but the continued traffic keeps every inning unstable. He can still miss bats, yet Philadelphia should have scoring chances whenever those baserunners begin to stack.

P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Landen Roupp: 6.91 ERA over his last 3 starts

Landen Roupp’s 6.91 ERA over his last three starts shows a pitcher moving sharply in the wrong direction. Detroit gets a favorable chance to keep his contact and run problems going.

P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

New York Mets pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games

The Mets' bullpen has thrown 13 innings in three games, with Núñez, Yan and Duarte all carrying multi-day workloads. New York still has a workable route if its starter supplies length, but Pittsburgh can stress the plan by forcing an early exit.

Jakob Marsee: .949 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jakob Marsee is locked in with a .949 OPS over his last two weeks. At a line of just 0.5 total bases, a single hit is all it takes for him to deliver tonight.

P 1-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB

Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.71 ERA vs 4.86 xERA

Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.71 ERA is flattered by favorable results on balls in play, with his 4.86 xERA telling the more cautious story. Against the Dodgers, I expect that correction to become visible.

Michael McGreevy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.62 xERA

Michael McGreevy’s 3.59 ERA does not match a 5.62 xERA built on dangerous hard contact and favorable batted-ball outcomes. Even against Colorado, I’m pricing him much closer to the underlying number.

Eli White (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot

Eli White's vs. Left line (.758 OPS, 83 AB) sits well above his .543 mark the other way (53 AB). Tonight's starter Gage Jump throws LHP, the hand he hits best.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB

Jung Hoo Lee: .975 OPS in Last 15 Days

Jung Hoo Lee is dialed in, maintaining a .975 OPS across 48 plate appearances. Facing Detroit pitching at home makes his 1.5 total-bases line a great target tonight.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB

Caleb Durbin: .913 OPS in Last 15 Days

The last 15 days sample runs 50 PA: a .913 OPS versus .729 for the season, 0.184 above his norm. He has 11 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.

P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB

Kyle Freeland: 4.43 ERA over his last 3 starts

Kyle Freeland has settled into a more functional stretch, posting a 4.43 ERA over his last three starts while giving Colorado useful length. He is not overpowering hitters, but St. Louis will need to generate pressure rather than wait for him to unravel.

P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Bryce Eldridge: .573 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jackson Jobe

Bryce Eldridge's slump is largely bad luck, and drawing righty Jackson Jobe puts him back on his favorable split. Look for his contact quality to convert into hits tonight.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Luis Campusano: .306 AVG vs .257 xBA

Luis Campusano's .306 average has outrun a .257 expected mark over a meaningful sample. I expect downward movement and prefer fading his hit and total-base markets against Houston.

P 0-for-4, 0 TB

Wind blowing out 11 mph at PNC Park tonight

An 11 mph wind blowing out at PNC Park rewards hitters who lift and pull the ball. The conditions fit another Mets-Pirates game where traffic can turn into crooked innings quickly.

P final total 9 vs 9 (over lean)

Kyle Freeland: 6.81 ERA vs 5.23 xERA

Kyle Freeland’s 6.81 ERA contains some bad luck, but his 5.23 xERA still reflects poor contact and too much traffic. I expect improvement against St. Louis, just not enough to treat him as reliable.

P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K

Wind blowing out 11 mph at Yankee Stadium tonight

Conditions at Yankee Stadium: Partly Cloudy, 91°, wind 11 mph, Out To LF. Fly balls that die most nights have a chance to go tonight. The total sits at 7.5.

P final total 9 vs 7.5 (over lean)

Clay Holmes: 2.39 ERA vs 3.9 xERA

Clay Holmes has earned part of his 2.39 ERA by limiting barrels and traffic, but the 3.90 xERA exposes how much help he has received. Kansas City should create more damage than that shiny surface number implies.

P 4 IP, 4 ER, 1 K

Jacob Webb / Ryan Zeferjahn

Shared ninth in CHC: Jacob Webb 6 saves, Ryan Zeferjahn 4. The role is live.

Jahmai Jones: .173 AVG vs .219 xBA

Jahmai Jones has been unrewarded for his contact quality, carrying a .173 average against a .219 xBA. He profiles as a sneaky buy-low option tonight against Boston.

P 3-for-5, 5 TB

Blas Castano

Listed back 8/8 (15-Day-IL, pectoral) — 3.92 ERA this season.

Seth Lugo

Starts tonight for KC — 5.33 xERA behind a 4.41 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.

Jahmai Jones

Still hitting 1st for BOS — 0.572 OPS, 0.173 AVG from the 1-hole.

Aaron Nola vs Jesus Sanchez: 2-for-20, 5 K

Aaron Nola has held Jesus Sanchez to two hits in 20 at-bats, and Sanchez has not done much damage even when making contact. I expect Nola to keep this individual matchup under control again.

P 1-for-3, 1 TB

Yandy Diaz vs George Kirby: .500

Yandy Diaz has hit George Kirby well enough for me to look past his recent cold stretch. This is a good matchup for Diaz to put a ball in play and get back into the hit column.

P 0-for-5, 0 TB

Austin Wells: .849 OPS in Last 15 Days

Austin Wells is swinging a hot bat with an .849 OPS over his last two weeks. Needing just a single hit to clear his 0.5 total-bases line makes him a solid play in the Bronx.

P 1-for-2, 2 TB

Mookie Betts: .233 AVG vs .276 xBA

Mookie Betts has earned much better than a .233 average, with a .276 expected mark pointing toward a rebound. I’m looking to buy low on his hit and total-base markets in Arizona.

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB

Green light: Colorado Rockies run, and Ivan Herrera has caught just 3%

Colorado should be aggressive whenever it gets aboard. Ivan Herrera’s 3% caught-stealing rate gives the Rockies a clear path to manufacture scoring chances without stacking hits.

P Colorado Rockies stole 5 bases

Ceddanne Rafaela: .289 AVG vs .246 xBA

Ceddanne Rafaela's .289 batting average sits well above his .246 expected mark over a significant stretch. A cooling-off period is overdue, so proceed with caution on his hit props.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

Robert Stock

Starts tonight for NYM — 5.23 xERA behind a 1.8 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.

Jake Mangum: .295 AVG vs .255 xBA

Jake Mangum’s .295 average is outperforming the .255 quality of contact underneath it. I’m fading him if the market is charging for that batting average rather than the likely correction.

P 3-for-5, 5 TB

Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight

A 10 mph wind blowing straight out to center changes Oracle Park's usual pitcher-friendly environment. Warning-track flies carry extra juice tonight, giving both lineups a serious boost against a modest total.

P final total 8 vs 8 (over lean)

Ketel Marte vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .333

In 15 career at-bats against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Ketel Marte is 5-for-15 for a 1.044 OPS (3 walks). The two square off again tonight. He enters cold (.504 OPS, L15).

P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB

Ronny Simon

Still hitting 6th for PIT — 0.522 OPS, 0.222 AVG from the 6-hole.

Wind blowing out 10 mph at Citizens Bank Park tonight

High temperatures combined with a 10 mph breeze blowing out to right field make Citizens Bank Park a hitter's paradise tonight. With fly balls carrying extra distance, expect plenty of offense to push this game over.

P final total 12 vs 9.5 (over lean)

Jake Cronenworth

Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.602 OPS, 0.220 AVG from the 2-hole.

Troy Melton: 1.58 ERA vs 3.11 xERA

Troy Melton’s 1.58 ERA has benefited from some good fortune, but his 3.11 xERA and strong contact management give the success a legitimate base. I trust him more than the typical regression candidate, while still expecting extra traffic against San Francisco.

Seth Lugo's ERA drops to 3.63 at Kauffman Stadium

Seth Lugo’s 3.63 ERA at Kauffman Stadium shows that he controls damage better at home, even when opponents create contact. The setting gives him a real chance to keep the Cubs from turning baserunners into a big inning.

P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K

Aaron Nola: 5.55 ERA vs 4.3 xERA

Aaron Nola’s 5.55 ERA should move closer to his 4.30 xERA, but the contact quality still leaves him exposed to power. I expect some improvement against Toronto without assuming the home-run risk disappears.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Aaron Nola owns a 6.47 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 4.76 everywhere else

Aaron Nola’s 6.47 ERA at Citizens Bank Park makes a shaky overall profile even harder to trust. Toronto gets him in the building where his problems have consistently become more severe.

P 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Luis Arraez: .323 AVG vs .285 xBA

Luis Arraez is sitting on a sparkling .323 batting average, but his .285 expected mark shows luck is doing plenty of heavy lifting. Hitters cannot outrun underlying contact quality forever, making Arraez a prime cooling-off candidate tonight.

P 2-for-4, 2 TB

Cristian Javier: 6.58 ERA vs 5.13 xERA

Cristian Javier has been somewhat worse than his contact deserves, so improvement from a 6.58 ERA is reasonable. A 5.13 expected ERA is still poor, though, so I’m expecting correction rather than a sudden shutdown start in San Diego.

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of ATL @ NYY

I like the NRFI in Atlanta-New York with Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale positioned to control the opening frame. A solo homer is the obvious threat, but both starters give me enough confidence to bet on a clean first.

P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)

Trent Grisham: .209 AVG vs .244 xBA

Trent Grisham's .209 average looks ugly, but a .244 expected average proves he has been squandering solid contact into bad luck. He is bound to see those soft outs turn into base hits soon, giving us sneaky value in his baseline props against Atlanta tonight.

P 1-for-4, 2 TB

Alika Williams: .445 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jake Bennett

Alika Williams's .445 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .661 season mark, down 0.216. Tonight he draws LHP Jake Bennett — his stronger side: a .726 OPS vs LHP across 69 AB.

P 0-for-0, 0 TB, 1 BB

Raisel Iglesias

Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 24 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).

Wade Meckler: .301 AVG vs .265 xBA

Across 180 plate appearances, Wade Meckler carries a .301 average versus a .265 xBA. His wOBA sits at .346 against a .318 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.

P 2-for-4, 3 TB

Seiya Suzuki

Pickup vs Seth Lugo (5.33 xERA) — .839 OPS, bats 2nd.

San Diego Padres pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games

San Diego Padres's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Streamer vs ARI — 3.11 xERA · 8.1 K/9 · 0.88 WHIP.

NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of BAL @ TEX

Baltimore-Texas looks like an NRFI until Jacob deGrom’s first-inning trouble enters the equation. Bradish should handle the bottom half, so the entire bet comes down to whether deGrom survives Baltimore’s opening shot.

P 1st inning: 1-0 (1 run)

Jordan Lawlar

Listed back 8/10 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.

94° at Nationals Park — the ball will carry tonight

Tonight's reading at Nationals Park — Cloudy, 94°, wind 8 mph, Out To CF. Everything about the air says carry. The total sits at 8.5.

P final total 10 vs 8.5 (over lean)

Luis Arraez

Pickup vs Max Scherzer (5.44 xERA) — .805 OPS, bats 4th.

At Nationals Park, Andrew Alvarez pitches to a 4.63 ERA

Andrew Alvarez’s 4.63 home ERA and steady contact allowed make Nationals Park a liability rather than a shield. Cincinnati gets him in the venue where pressure has been easiest to turn into runs.

P 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K

Alec Burleson

Pickup vs Kyle Freeland (5.23 xERA) — .827 OPS, bats 4th.

Endy Rodriguez

Pickup vs Robert Stock (5.23 xERA) — .840 OPS, bats 6th.

Jakob Marsee

Still hitting 1st for MIA — 0.630 OPS, 0.203 AVG from the 1-hole.

Bryan Reynolds

Pickup vs Robert Stock (5.23 xERA) — .820 OPS, bats 3rd.

Justin Wrobleski: 3.31 ERA vs 4.51 xERA

Justin Wrobleski’s 3.31 ERA is being propped up by favorable batted-ball results, while his 4.51 xERA better reflects the damaging contact. Arizona is in position to make that regression arrive tonight.

Minnesota Twins like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

William Contreras owns a 40% caught-stealing rate (21 of 53) and Minnesota Twins run anyway — 0.6 steals a game. Strength on strength on the bases.

P Minnesota Twins stole 1 base

Miami Marlins like to run — Tyler Heineman (34% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Miami relies heavily on creating chaos on the basepaths, but running into Tyler Heineman and his 34% caught-stealing rate is a recipe for quick outs. Expect the Angels catcher to completely neutralize the Marlins' primary offensive weapon tonight.

P Miami Marlins stole 0 bases

Peter Lambert

Streamer vs SD — 3.35 xERA · 8.9 K/9 · 1.13 WHIP.

Max Scherzer

Starts tonight for TOR — 5.44 xERA behind a 7.92 ERA.

Brandon Marsh

Pickup vs Max Scherzer (5.44 xERA) — .765 OPS, bats 6th.

Tommy White

Still hitting 5th for OAK — 0.579 OPS, 0.267 AVG from the 5-hole.

Grant Holmes: 3.67 ERA vs 4.7 xERA

Grant Holmes’ 3.67 ERA understates the risk created by his elevated hard-hit and barrel rates, which drive a 4.70 xERA. Against the Yankees, I’m treating the expected mark as the honest one.

Michael Lorenzen: 6.94 ERA vs 5.84 xERA

Michael Lorenzen has suffered some bad luck on balls in play, so his 6.94 ERA should improve. His 5.84 xERA and brutal contact profile still leave St. Louis with plenty of ways to score.

Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Ryan Jeffers has caught just 14%

Milwaukee can put immediate pressure on Ryan Jeffers and his 14% caught-stealing rate. I expect the Brewers to use their legs to turn ordinary baserunners into scoring threats.

P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base

Bryson Stott

Pickup vs Max Scherzer (5.44 xERA) — .745 OPS, bats 5th.

Matthew Boyd: 3.59 ERA vs 4.54 xERA

Matthew Boyd has earned part of his 3.59 ERA, but the 4.54 xERA and barrel rate point toward more damage ahead. Against Kansas City, I expect a modest step backward rather than a complete collapse.

Chicago Cubs like to run — Carter Jensen (37% caught) is the wrong catcher to test

Chicago likes to run, but Carter Jensen’s 37% caught-stealing rate makes this the wrong matchup for blind aggression. The Cubs may need to rely more heavily on consecutive hits to move runners tonight.

P Chicago Cubs stole 0 bases

Willson Contreras: .786 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Gage Jump

Willson Contreras's .786 OPS over the last 15 days (30 PA) trails his .936 season mark, down 0.15. Tonight he draws LHP Gage Jump — his stronger side: a .982 OPS vs LHP across 93 AB.

P 1-for-5, 1 TB

San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)

San Francisco’s 10-20 record in one-run games is the kind of high-variance result that can pull back toward even. The Giants may be slightly better than their record suggests, especially if tonight becomes another tight finish.

Jake Bennett

Streamer vs OAK — 3.02 xERA · 6.3 K/9 · 1.01 WHIP.

MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10

Minnesota has failed to score in the first inning in 10 straight games, supporting another quiet opening against Robert Gasser. Bradley’s early vulnerability makes Milwaukee the bigger threat, so this is not an automatic full-game NRFI for me.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Henry Bolte

Still hitting 1st for OAK — 0.675 OPS, 0.254 AVG from the 1-hole.

New York Mets are 11-20 in one-run games (.355 win%)

The Mets are 11-20 in one-run games, a high-variance record that makes their overall mark look worse than their underlying strength. I’m willing to give New York more credit if this turns into another tight game.

Baltimore Orioles are 10-18 in one-run games (.357 win%)

Baltimore’s 10-18 record in one-run games is more likely to improve than remain this poor indefinitely. The Orioles may be undervalued if tonight stays close against Texas.

Landen Roupp

Streamer vs DET — 3.58 xERA · 9.1 K/9 · 1.29 WHIP.

Oneil Cruz

Listed back 8/14 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.

Carter Baumler

Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.

HOU have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Houston has scored in only one of its last 10 first innings, and Michael King is a difficult draw for a slow-starting lineup. Peter Lambert has also limited early damage, so I like the opening frame to belong to the pitchers.

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

STL have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

St. Louis has scored in the first inning just once in its last 10, but Freeland’s early traffic offers a real chance to break that habit. With Liberatore vulnerable on the other side, I prefer a first-inning run angle over trusting either starter to open cleanly.

P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st

PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Pittsburgh has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10 games, leaving the Mets as the more credible early threat. If Chandler survives New York’s first look, this game should settle into the low-scoring shape both clubs have been showing.

P flagged team scored 3 in the 1st

Michael Soroka

Listed back 8/16 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.

ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Arizona Diamondbacks have scored in the first inning just 1 time in their last 10 games — slow-starting lineup, and the 1st has been a free pass for opposing starters. Starters' first innings this season — Brandon Pfaadt 2.70 ERA, .231 BA against in first innings (10.0 IP, 1 HR); Yoshinobu Yamamoto 4.05 ERA, .233 BA against in first innings (20.0 IP, 3 HR).

P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

TOR have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10

Toronto has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10, but Nola’s early home-run risk keeps the top half alive. Philadelphia is the clearer opening threat against Scherzer, making a Phillies first-inning angle more appealing than a full NRFI.

P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st

Maikel Garcia

Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.