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2026-08-09

The stored Gary board for Sun, Aug 9. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

15
MLB12:15 PM

Reds @ Nationals

It’s a Sunday afternoon game at Nationals Park, with Washington going for the sweep and Cincinnati trying to save the last game of the series. With the odds close to even, I’m backing the home team. This comes down to Washington’s left-handed hitters having a favorable matchup against Brady Singer. Lefties have done plenty of damage against him, and the Nationals can keep sending them up throughout the lineup. Singer’s overall pitching has been shaky, and his recent trouble throwing strikes could give a productive Washington offense plenty of chances. Brad Lord’s struggles at home keep me from feeling too confident, but Washington plans to rely heavily on its relief pitchers and can avoid leaving him in too long. The Nationals have controlled the series, their offense has the better matchup, and I only need Washington to win the game. I’m taking the Nationals to win.

Nationals ML-105
CONF
59%
MLB1:35 PM

Athletics @ Red Sox

Sunday afternoon at Fenway brings hot weather, a breeze toward right field, and an even series after Oakland ended Boston’s nine-game winning streak. The Athletics are still the underdog, but I’d rather take the extra run with them than pay a steep price to back Boston. Ginn gives Oakland a real chance to stay close through the middle innings. He has done a good job limiting dangerous contact, especially against right-handed hitters, and Boston is missing some of its usual lineup depth. The Red Sox are starting the game with Erik Miller, so Oakland should see several pitchers instead of facing a traditional starter who works deep into the game. Boston’s bullpen is clearly better, and that’s the risk. Still, my bet wins if Oakland wins the game or loses by only one run, at close to even odds. Boston also bats last, so a one-run Red Sox lead can end the game without giving them another chance to pull away. I’m taking Oakland with the extra run.

Athletics +1.5-102
CONF
59%
MLB1:35 PM

Braves @ Yankees

The Yankees are going for the sweep in the Bronx on a hot afternoon, with the wind blowing toward the short right-field porch. Both games have been decided by one run, but I think New York has the better setup for the finale. Cam Schlittler is the difference for me. He rarely gives up runs or lets hitters reach base, and he gets plenty of strikeouts without many walks. Grant Holmes has pitched well lately, but the kind of contact he allows could be trouble against a Yankees lineup with seven left-handed hitters. Schlittler hasn’t been as strong at home, Atlanta has dangerous hitters in the middle of its lineup, and New York’s relievers have worked recently. That keeps me from feeling too comfortable, but the Yankees still have the better starter, a strong bullpen, and the more favorable matchup at the plate. I’m backing the Yankees to win.

Yankees ML-141
CONF
56%
MLB1:35 PM

Blue Jays @ Phillies

Citizens Bank Park gets the Sunday spotlight, with the Blue Jays chasing a sweep and the Phillies trying to stop the bleeding. I’m backing Philadelphia to win by at least two runs. It starts with the clear pitching advantage. Jesús Luzardo has pitched well and done an excellent job limiting strong contact. He also gets a weakened Toronto lineup without George Springer. Shane Bieber has struggled, and the quality of contact against him suggests things could get even worse. That’s dangerous against Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and a deep Phillies lineup in a park that favors hitters. Toronto’s relief pitching is the biggest concern, but its top finisher, Louis Varland, has worked heavily in two recent outings. Philadelphia should have chances to pull away before the late innings, while Jhoan Duran is rested and ready to shut the door if the Phillies have the lead. I’m taking Philadelphia to win by at least two runs.

Phillies -1.5-112
CONF
64%
MLB1:40 PM

Angels @ Marlins

Sunday afternoon in Miami, with the roof closed, the series is tied and the deciding game is on the line. I’m backing the Marlins to win at home. Miami has the better starting pitcher matchup. Ryan Gusto has pitched more steadily than his results show, while Grayson Rodriguez has allowed too many runs and too many runners on base, with major trouble against left-handed hitters. That gives Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee a good chance against a fastball that has been hit hard all season. The Angels have barely scored lately, and one good start from Rodriguez isn’t enough for me to ignore everything else. Gusto doesn’t have to be great. He just needs to keep Miami close until a rested bullpen takes over. I’m willing to pay the price for the home team to finish the series.

Marlins ML-140
CONF
58%
MLB1:35 PM

Mets @ Pirates

It’s the deciding game at PNC Park, with a Sunday afternoon start and a light wind blowing toward center field. Pittsburgh bounced back from Friday’s loss with a shutout win Saturday, and I’m backing the Pirates to finish the series. Jared Jones has been sharper, mixing a blazing fastball with a slider that gets plenty of empty swings. Sean Manaea has looked steadier lately, but right-handed hitters have had success against him, and Pittsburgh can take advantage throughout the lineup. Carson Benge being out with a wrist issue also takes the Mets’ hottest bat away. The Pirates have the better group of relief pitchers, with several strong late-game choices ready after they weren’t overworked Saturday. That advantage matters if the starting pitchers keep things close, and Pittsburgh has the better chance to pull away against Manaea. I’m betting the Pirates to win.

Pirates ML-140
CONF
58%
MLB2:10 PM

Cubs @ Royals

It’ll be a hot afternoon at Kauffman Stadium with the wind blowing out, as a playoff contender faces a dangerous spoiler in the deciding game of the series. Both starting pitchers are making their first appearance for their new teams, which adds another twist. I trust Matthew Boyd’s recent pitching and ability to work deep into games more. He has finished at least six innings in six straight starts, has allowed very little damage lately, and has handled left-handed hitters well, which should help against the red-hot Jac Caglianone. Randy Dobnak’s results look good on the surface, but the way he has pitched suggests trouble ahead because he doesn’t miss many bats and has given up too many walks. The biggest difference comes when the starters leave. Chicago has the deeper lineup and a much stronger group of relief pitchers, while Kansas City’s bullpen has struggled badly. The size of Kauffman Stadium makes me less interested in betting on the Cubs to win by multiple runs, so I’m backing them to win outright.

Cubs ML-158
CONF
59%
MLB2:10 PM

Guardians @ White Sox

Sunday afternoon at Rate Field, with the series on the line and both teams trying to stay in the division race, I’m taking Cleveland to win the finale as a slight favorite. The clearest advantage is facing Davis Martin. He has been hit hard in his last few starts, Cleveland’s current hitters have had success against him before, and his tendency to allow plenty of contact is dangerous against Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Nathaniel Lowe. Joey Cantillo may allow some runners, but his curveball and changeup give him a better chance to make hitters miss. The wind blowing in should limit Chicago’s power advantage and favor the pitcher with the better off-speed pitches. Cleveland also has the stronger options late if Cantillo can get through the early part of the game, but its recent relief pitching has been too shaky to ask for anything beyond a win. I’m taking the Guardians to win.

Guardians ML-125
CONF
62%
MLB2:10 PM

Twins @ Brewers

Sunday afternoon under the closed roof in Milwaukee, with the series tied and Jacob Misiorowski starting for the Brewers. This is where I’m willing to back the home team to win by at least two runs. Misiorowski has been dominant, keeping runners off base, piling up strikeouts and rarely allowing strong contact. That is a brutal matchup for a Minnesota lineup whose lower half has been quiet, even with Royce Lewis and Josh Bell swinging hot bats. Connor Prielipp has pitched respectably lately, but he still gives up plenty of hard contact and has not consistently lasted deep into games. Milwaukee also has the better and fresher group of relief pitchers, giving the Brewers a strong chance to protect a lead and add to it. The price is not cheap, but Milwaukee’s advantage with the starting pitchers and late in the game makes the Brewers to win by at least two runs my play.

Brewers -1.5-124
CONF
59%
MLB2:15 PM

Rockies @ Cardinals

Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium, the deciding game is there for the taking. I’m backing St. Louis to finish the series with a win. Michael Lorenzen is the matchup I want to attack. He has been giving up far too many runs and allowing far too many hitters to reach base. He has been hit especially hard in his last few starts and has struggled against left-handed hitters. That gives Alec Burleson and the Cardinals’ other left-handed bats a good chance to do damage early, while Colorado’s shaky relief pitchers may not offer much help after Lorenzen leaves. Michael McGreevy has some warning signs of his own, so I’m not counting on St. Louis to win by a certain margin against a Rockies offense that has been hitting well. Still, he throws strikes, has pitched well at Busch Stadium, and St. Louis has a clear advantage with its relief pitchers. The price is not cheap, but I’m taking the Cardinals to win.

Cardinals ML-158
CONF
61%
MLB2:35 PM

Orioles @ Rangers

Sunday afternoon under the closed roof, Texas is chasing a sweep while Baltimore is trying to end a three-game slide. The Rangers have the momentum, but I think this matchup gives the Orioles a real chance to turn things around. Kumar Rocker has struggled more against left-handed hitters, and Baltimore can use five of them, led by Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Colton Cowser. Cade Povich faces a Texas lineup filled with right-handed hitters, which suits him better, and his scoreless outing last time suggests he came back ready after the long break. Texas has been playing better lately and has the stronger relief pitching, so this won’t be easy. But Baltimore has the better matchup between the starting pitchers and opposing hitters, and I’m backing the Orioles to win as the underdog.

Orioles ML+116
CONF
57%
MLB4:05 PM

Tigers @ Giants

The series finale is at Oracle Park, with Logan Webb trying to settle the Giants after Detroit shut them out on Saturday. I’m backing the Tigers to win. Troy Melton is the difference for me. His results may not stay quite this good, but he throws hard, has several pitches that miss bats and does not allow much solid contact against hitters from either side. That is a tough matchup for an inconsistent Giants lineup with several struggling hitters near the bottom. Webb and the ballpark should keep it close, so I prefer Detroit simply to win instead of needing a bigger margin. The Tigers have the hotter lineup, have done a better job preventing runs lately and have the more dependable group of relief pitchers. I expect Melton to leave with the lead and Detroit to finish the job.

Tigers ML-123
CONF
64%
MLB4:10 PM

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Sunday afternoon at Chase Field, with the roof closed and the series tied, the Dodgers are trying to build some real momentum after a hard-earned win. I expect another close game. I’m backing Los Angeles because Justin Wrobleski has a better matchup than his recent results suggest. Arizona relies heavily on right-handed hitters, and he has handled them well. Eduardo Rodriguez’s results look better, but how he has actually pitched suggests he could slip, and the Dodgers’ current lineup has hit him well before. Arizona has the stronger group of relief pitchers, so I don’t want to bet on the Dodgers to win by a certain amount. Still, Los Angeles has the deeper lineup, and Ohtani, Pages, and Tucker are swinging well enough to make Rodriguez pay. I’m betting on the Dodgers to win.

Dodgers ML-129
CONF
61%
MLB4:10 PM

Rays @ Mariners

Sunday afternoon in Seattle, the Rays are going for the sweep while the Mariners are trying to end a three-game losing streak. Tampa Bay has won five in a row, and Seattle has scored only three runs in the first two games of this series. I’m backing the Rays because Ian Seymour has pitched better than his usual results make it look, and his changeup can get hitters to swing and miss. Emerson Hancock’s results look better, but he has allowed enough hard contact to give Tampa Bay’s left-handed hitters a chance to hurt him. The late innings are the difference for me. Tampa Bay’s relief pitching has been much better than Seattle’s, even though several important Rays relievers have worked recently. With the odds basically even, I’ll take the deeper, hotter team with more ways to close out the game. I’m taking the Rays to win.

Rays ML-104
CONF
58%
MLB8:20 PM

Astros @ Padres

Sunday night at Petco is the deciding game of the series between two teams just one spot apart in the standings. I’m backing Houston at an underdog price because this matchup looks much more even than the betting market suggests. Randy Vásquez’s basic results make him look better than he has actually pitched. He has struggled to miss bats and has given up hard contact all season. Left-handed hitters have also done plenty of damage against him, which gives Yordan Alvarez, Taylor Trammell, Daulton Varsho and LaMonte Wade Jr. a good matchup in Houston’s lineup. Cristian Javier still comes with plenty of risk, but his latest outing was encouraging because he pitched deep into the game. Houston’s bullpen has also allowed very little lately. The Astros have the stronger offense and have been playing better on the scoreboard recently, so I see value in taking Houston to win a close game.

Astros ML+103
CONF
57%

Player props

46
MLB · Reds @ Nationals

Brad Lord

I’m betting Lord’s role more than his season ERA. He recently returned from the injured list, threw one inning four days ago and is opening a planned bullpen game, so Washington has little reason to let him face Cincinnati’s order three times. The ugly home split and the Reds’ power create risk, but a short assignment gives Lord a strong chance to leave before allowing two earned runs.

UNDER 1.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-185
MLB · Reds @ Nationals

Brady Singer

Singer has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts and recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six. Washington’s first four hitters all carry some swing-and-miss, giving his slider and sweeper—his two best whiff pitches—multiple paths to early strikeouts. Singer can give up damage and still reach five before Cincinnati turns the game over to its bullpen.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+100
MLB HR · Reds @ Nationals

Daylen Lile

Lile gets the matchup I want at a price worth attacking. Left-handed hitters have tagged Brady Singer for a .293 average, an .846 OPS and 15 home runs, with Singer’s sinker-driven approach producing plenty of hittable contact.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+533
MLB · Athletics @ Red Sox

J.T. Ginn

This asks Ginn for 5 2/3 innings, a mark he has cleared in five of his last eight starts. He returned with six innings on August 4, and his season workload says there is no reason to expect a short leash.

OVER 16.5 Pitcher Outs-108
MLB HR · Athletics @ Red Sox

Tyler Soderstrom

Soderstrom has homered in each of the first two games of this series, but the underlying contact is the stronger reason to stay with him: a 98.3 mph recent average exit velocity with 13 hard-hit balls on 17 balls in play. Fenway is playing in hot weather with an 11 mph breeze toward right field, an inviting setup for his left-handed power. Erik Miller opening from the left side and Boston’s strong bullpen keep this a modest-conviction play, but +562 only requires about a 15 percent hit rate. The price is worth taking.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+562
MLB · Braves @ Yankees

Jim Jarvis

Jarvis is batting ninth against one of the toughest right-handers on the board. He is 6-for-35 over his last 15 games and 1-for-14 over the last seven, while Cam Schlittler has held left-handed hitters to a .204 average and .594 OPS. Jarvis also faces the possibility of only three plate appearances before the Yankees’ strong bullpen takes over. At essentially even money, I’ll bet he finishes without a hit.

UNDER 0.5 Hits-105
MLB · Braves @ Yankees

Cam Schlittler

Schlittler has 171 strikeouts in 139.2 innings, and his fastball has produced a 31.8% whiff rate while sitting just under 98 mph. He has reached at least eight strikeouts in four of his last six starts, and even his three-inning stumble last time out included six punchouts. Atlanta has dangerous bats, but Schlittler can clear this number without pitching especially deep. I’ll lay the price on over 6.5 strikeouts.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts-142
MLB · Mets @ Pirates

Jared Jones

I’m backing Jones to hold the Mets to four hits or fewer. He has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, and his 3.32 xERA and .284 expected wOBA support the results. The combination of a 98.4 mph fastball and high-whiff slider limits clean contact, while Carson Benge’s wrist scratch removes New York’s hottest bat. Jones also hasn't consistently worked deep, which reduces the number of chances the Mets get against him.

UNDER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-125
MLB · Mets @ Pirates

Esmerlyn Valdez

I want plus money on Valdez drawing a walk after he has done it in 10 of his last 15 games. Manaea has issued nine walks across his last three starts and has gone over 1.5 walks in six of his last eight. Valdez’s power gives Manaea a reason to work carefully, particularly with the left-hander carrying an .833 OPS allowed to right-handed bats.

OVER 0.5 Walks+114
MLB · Blue Jays @ Phillies

Jesus Luzardo

I’m backing Luzardo to reach seven strikeouts at plus money. He has 164 punchouts in 136.2 innings and has cleared this number in five of his last six starts while completing at least six innings five times during that stretch.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+116
MLB · Blue Jays @ Phillies

Bryson Stott

Stott has cleared this combination in 10 of his last 15 games, and the underlying contact is even better than the results. He owns a .357 average and 1.137 OPS over that span, with an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph and 11 hard-hit balls among 19 balls in play.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-110
MLB · Angels @ Marlins

Grayson Rodriguez

Rodriguez has completed six innings just once in his last eight starts, yet I’m getting plus money on him recording fewer than 17 outs. His seven-inning outing in Baltimore was encouraging, but it doesn’t erase a season of short starts, a 49.7% hard-hit rate and a four-seam fastball carrying a .439 xwOBA.

UNDER 16.5 Pitcher Outs+105
MLB · Angels @ Marlins

Kyle Stowers

Stowers gets the matchup I want at the top of Miami’s order. He has four home runs and a 1.027 OPS over his last 15 days, and he has reached safely five times in the first two games of this series.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115
MLB · Cubs @ Royals

Matthew Boyd

Boyd has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, and his declining swing-and-miss gives that trend substance. His four-seamer owns an 8.9% whiff rate, while the slider is his only consistent put-away pitch and accounts for just 15.4% of his usage.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-115
MLB · Cubs @ Royals

Alex Bregman

Bregman’s recent results undersell the quality of his contact. He has averaged 94.6 mph off the bat with 14 hard-hit balls among his last 24 balls in play, and he has cleared 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 15 games.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+105
MLB · Guardians @ White Sox

Davis Martin

Cleveland’s lineup is built to deny Martin easy strikeouts. Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Travis Bazzana and Brayan Rocchio all have recent whiff rates of 17% or lower, while the Guardians’ current hitters have struck out only twice in 32 career at-bats against him. Martin has cleared this number in just three of his last eight starts, and his recent swing-and-miss rates have been poor. At even money, I’ll take three strikeouts or fewer.

UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts+100
MLB · Guardians @ White Sox

Joey Cantillo

Cantillo has not recorded more than 15 outs in any of his last six starts and has gone over this line only once in his last eight. His 1.47 WHIP creates a steady pitch-count tax, and Chicago can send six right-handed or switch hitters at a pitcher allowing a .777 OPS to righties. He would need to return for the sixth and record an out to beat me. I’m laying the price on another five-inning ceiling.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-155
MLB · Twins @ Brewers

Brooks Lee

Lee is 1-for-18 over the last seven days and 6-for-41 over the last 15, and this is a severe step up in difficulty. Batting left-handed against Jacob Misiorowski puts him into a split where Misiorowski has held lefties to a .101 average and .347 OPS. His 100.6 mph fastball, 2.8% barrel rate allowed and Milwaukee's strong bullpen leave Lee very little margin. At essentially even money, I’ll take him to finish without a hit.

UNDER 0.5 Hits-105
MLB · Twins @ Brewers

Brice Turang

Turang has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games, is 18-for-55 over that span and has five hits through the first two games of this series. His recent contact has produced no barrels on 18 balls in play, which is useful for a singles prop because I’m not paying for extra-base damage. Connor Prielipp has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .296, and Turang should receive four or five plate appearances from the second spot. I like him to find one single at -120.

OVER 0.5 Singles-120
MLB · Rockies @ Cardinals

Michael Lorenzen

Lorenzen has completed more than five innings only once in his last six starts, and his last three have lasted just 10.2 innings combined. A 1.85 WHIP creates constant traffic and elevated pitch counts, while this Cardinals lineup can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher allowing a 1.030 OPS to lefties. I’m betting he is gone before recording an out in the sixth.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-138
MLB · Rockies @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

Burleson gets the strongest individual matchup in the Cardinals order. Lorenzen has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .355 with a 1.030 OPS, and his primary sinker and cutter have both been punished. Burleson is producing authoritative contact, owns a .533 expected slugging percentage and has three home runs over his last seven games. Batting third against Lorenzen and a vulnerable Colorado bullpen gives him multiple paths to two bases.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-110
MLB · Orioles @ Rangers

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson has drawn a walk in nine of his last 15 games, and his recent 15% chase rate shows the plate discipline is intact even while the hits have been scarce. Kumar Rocker has issued two walks in four straight starts, and Henderson gets the maximum opportunity from the leadoff spot. The matchup and plus-money price make this my favorite prop on the board.

OVER 0.5 Walks+151
MLB · Orioles @ Rangers

Carlos Narvaez

Narvaez is 1-for-20 over the last 15 days and has contributed a hit, run or RBI in only four of his last 15 games. He bats ninth against a starter holding right-handed hitters to a .209 average and .587 OPS, with Texas able to follow Rocker with its stronger relief arms. I like plus money on another quiet afternoon from the bottom of Baltimore's order.

UNDER 0.5 H+R+RBI+104
MLB · Tigers @ Giants

Troy Melton

I’m taking Melton under 4.5 hits allowed at a plus price. He has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, and that suppression is supported by a .170 opponent average, a 33.7% hard-hit rate and several effective secondary pitches.

UNDER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+115
MLB · Tigers @ Giants

Christian Koss

I’m betting Koss to finish without a hit. He is batting ninth after going 5-for-33 over the last 15 days, and the recent contact profile offers little reason to expect an immediate turn: modest exit velocity, a 33% whiff rate and a 44% chase rate.

UNDER 0.5 Hits-105
MLB · Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Ben Rortvedt

Will Smith’s absence puts Rortvedt in the lineup against a particularly unfriendly matchup. He bats left-handed, Eduardo Rodriguez has held lefties to a .641 OPS, and Rortvedt is buried ninth with an .112 xBA. I’ll take plus money on him finishing without a hit.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+108
MLB · Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Gabriel Moreno

Moreno has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games, producing 13 RBI during that stretch. He is batting third, owns a .371 xwOBA and has whiffed on only 13% of his recent swings. Justin Wrobleski has allowed 12 earned runs across his last two starts, giving Moreno several ways to get to two combined hits, runs and RBI.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-121
MLB · Rays @ Mariners

Ian Seymour

Seymour’s strikeout production is stronger than his ERA suggests, and the 41% whiff rate on his changeup gives him the weapon to finish Seattle’s right-handed bats. He has cleared this number in five of eight starts, including nine strikeouts his last time out. Against a Mariners offense averaging 8.5 strikeouts per game, six is a reasonable target at nearly even money.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-111
MLB · Rays @ Mariners

Jonathan Aranda

Aranda is batting second for a lineup built to challenge Hancock with left-handed hitters. He has a hit in 12 of his last 15 games and has cleared this combined number nine times during that stretch. Hancock’s 4.09 xERA and 42.9% hard-hit rate are less convincing than his surface ERA, and Aranda’s combination of contact, power and lineup position gives him several paths to two at plus money.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+102
MLB HR · Braves @ Yankees

Matt Olson

Schlittler is a difficult assignment, but +600 is too generous for the hottest power bat on the board. Olson has six homers in his last 15 games, including three in his last seven, with six barrels on only 18 recent balls in play.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600
MLB HR · Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Kyle Tucker

Tucker is seeing the ball too well for this price. He has four homers in his last 15 games, nine recent hard-hit balls and has already gone deep in this series. Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.71 ERA masks a 4.86 xERA, and Tucker gets additional chances against an Arizona bullpen that has allowed 11 runs over its last seven games. At +800, I’m betting Tucker’s current power carries into the finale.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+800
MLB HR · Braves @ Yankees

Luis Garcia Jr.

Garcia gets the matchup I want for a long-shot homer: a left-handed cleanup bat facing Grant Holmes in hot weather with the wind carrying toward Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Holmes has allowed twice as many homers to lefties as righties and carries a 4.70 xERA with a 42.5% hard-hit rate.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750
MLB HR · Orioles @ Rangers

Corey Seager

The price is doing the work here. Cade Povich has allowed three homers in only 36 at-bats against left-handed hitters, and his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves room for another damaging swing.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750
MLB HR · Rockies @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

This is the clearest power matchup on the board. Michael Lorenzen has allowed a 1.030 OPS and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters, while Burleson has three homers and three barrels over his last seven games. With 90-degree heat and a 10 mph wind blowing toward left, I’ll take Burleson to leave the yard at +350.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350
MLB HR · Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Teoscar Hernandez

Hernandez gets the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez and brings the right contact shape for a home-run swing. He has three homers in his last 15 games, two barrels on his last 20 balls in play and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity over that stretch. Rodriguez’s results have been much better than his underlying contact profile, and Chase Field remains a favorable place to bet power. I’ll take Hernandez at +575.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575
MLB HR · Rays @ Mariners

Victor Mesa Jr.

Mesa is seeing the ball with real authority: four barrels on 18 recent balls in play, including Saturday’s 412-foot homer. He gets the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock, whose 3.33 ERA is undercut by a 4.09 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 10 homers allowed to left-handed hitters. T-Mobile Park takes something away from every power bet, but +750 gives me enough room to bet that Mesa’s current contact translates again.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750
MLB HR · Twins @ Brewers

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is the one power price I want on this board. He has three homers in his last 15 games and has recently produced five barrels on just 17 balls in play, so the quality of contact is there. Connor Prielipp has allowed eight of his nine home runs to right-handed hitters, while his four-seam has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate with a .372 xwOBA. Chourio gets the platoon advantage from the leadoff spot, giving him the best combination of matchup, form and likely plate appearances at +440.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+440
MLB HR · Angels @ Marlins

Griffin Conine

I’m taking Griffin Conine to homer at +420. Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a .961 OPS to left-handed hitters while surrendering a 49.7% hard-hit rate and an 11.5% barrel rate overall.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+420
MLB HR · Tigers @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Devers is the one Giants bat I’ll back to do damage against Troy Melton. He has three homers over his last 15 games and has recently produced a 97.3 mph average exit velocity with 14 hard-hit balls. Melton has been excellent, but seven of the eight homers he has allowed have come against left-handed hitters. Oracle Park lowers the baseline, yet its short right-field corner gives Devers a viable route at a price that compensates for the difficult matchup.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700
MLB HR · Rays @ Mariners

Junior Caminero

Caminero has four homers in his last 15 days and four barrels among his 20 recent balls in play, with a 94.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the best combination of frequency and impact contact in Tampa Bay’s lineup. Hancock has allowed a 9% barrel rate with significant regression baked into his expected numbers, so I’m willing to attack him with the Rays’ most dangerous power bat even in a pitcher-friendly park.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390
MLB HR · Rockies @ Cardinals

Hunter Goodman

Goodman is cold, but +850 is enough to buy the underlying power in favorable hitting weather. Michael McGreevy has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate, owns a 5.62 xERA beneath his much cleaner surface ERA and has surrendered six homers to right-handed hitters in only 165 at-bats. Goodman only needs to catch one, and this price makes that swing worth taking.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+850
MLB · Astros @ Padres

Randy Vasquez

Vasquez has not reached three strikeouts in eight consecutive starts, and his recent swing-and-miss profile supports that trend. He has recorded only one strikeout across his last 11.2 innings, while his latest whiff rates have sat between 7% and 13%.

UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts+118
MLB · Astros @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Javier has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing them a .305 average and .993 OPS with four home runs in 59 at-bats. His extreme fly-ball profile is also a favorable fit for Tatis, who has produced a 92.8 mph recent average exit velocity with three barrels and two home runs over the last seven days.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+107
MLB HR · Cubs @ Royals

Pete Crow-Armstrong

I’ll take a swing at this price with the hottest power profile on the board. Pete Crow-Armstrong has four homers over his last 15 days and four barrels among his 18 recent balls in play, backed by a 93.1 mph average exit velocity.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700
MLB HR · Astros @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Cristian Javier has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .993 OPS and four home runs in 59 at-bats. His extreme fly-ball profile gives Tatis the right kind of matchup despite Petco Park, and Tatis has produced three barrels over his last seven games while homering twice in his last 15. Batting leadoff also gives him the best chance at an extra plate appearance. At +333, I’m willing to bet his power breaks through.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+333
MLB HR · Astros @ Padres

Taylor Trammell

Randy Vásquez has allowed an .873 OPS to left-handed hitters, and his 11.1% barrel rate and 44.6% hard-hit rate make the underlying matchup more inviting than his ERA suggests. Trammell has four home runs in his last 15 games, with three barrels on only 15 recent balls in play, and he already took one deep at Petco in this series. The park is a concern, but +575 pays enough to accept it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

Hub research

163

Graded results

61

Games

  • W

    Nationals ML -105

    MLB · 1-7

  • L

    Yankees ML -141

    MLB · 2-1

  • W

    Athletics +1.5 -102

    MLB · 4-3

  • L

    Pirates ML -140

    MLB · 11-1

  • W

    Marlins ML -140

    MLB · 3-12

  • W

    Cubs ML -158

    MLB · 10-2

  • L

    Phillies -1.5 -112

    MLB · 6-7

  • W

    Cardinals ML -158

    MLB · 4-7

  • L

    Brewers -1.5 -124

    MLB · 3-4

  • W

    Orioles ML +116

    MLB · 10-5

  • L

    Dodgers ML -129

    MLB · 2-4

  • W

    Tigers ML -123

    MLB · 3-1

  • W

    Rays ML -104

    MLB · 4-1

  • L

    Guardians ML -125

    MLB · 3-5

  • L

    Astros ML +103

    MLB · 2-7

Props

  • W

    Alec Burleson · over

    Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 4

  • W

    Alec Burleson · over

    Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 1

  • W

    Alex Bregman · over

    Cubs @ Royals · Actual 3

  • L

    Ben Rortvedt · under

    Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1

  • W

    Brad Lord · under

    Reds @ Nationals · Actual 1

  • L

    Brady Singer · over

    Reds @ Nationals · Actual 3

  • W

    Brice Turang · over

    Twins @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • L

    Brooks Lee · under

    Twins @ Brewers · Actual 2

  • W

    Bryson Stott · over

    Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 4

  • W

    Cam Schlittler · over

    Braves @ Yankees · Actual 11

  • L

    Carlos Narvaez · under

    Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 1

  • L

    Christian Koss · under

    Tigers @ Giants · Actual 1

  • L

    Corey Seager · over

    Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 0

  • W

    Davis Martin · under

    Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 1

  • L

    Daylen Lile · over

    Reds @ Nationals · Actual 0

  • L

    Esmerlyn Valdez · over

    Mets @ Pirates · Actual 0

  • W

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Astros @ Padres · Actual 6

  • W

    Fernando Tatis Jr. · over

    Astros @ Padres · Actual 1

  • W

    Gabriel Moreno · over

    Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3

  • W

    Grayson Rodriguez · under

    Angels @ Marlins · Actual 12

  • W

    Griffin Conine · over

    Angels @ Marlins · Actual 2

  • W

    Gunnar Henderson · over

    Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 1

  • W

    Hunter Goodman · over

    Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 1

  • W

    Ian Seymour · over

    Rays @ Mariners · Actual 7

  • W

    Jackson Chourio · over

    Twins @ Brewers · Actual 1

  • L

    Jared Jones · under

    Mets @ Pirates · Actual 6

  • W

    Jesus Luzardo · over

    Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 12

  • W

    Jim Jarvis · under

    Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0

  • W

    Joey Cantillo · under

    Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 3

  • L

    Jonathan Aranda · over

    Rays @ Mariners · Actual 1

  • W

    J.T. Ginn · over

    Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 18

  • L

    Junior Caminero · over

    Rays @ Mariners · Actual 0

  • W

    Kyle Stowers · over

    Angels @ Marlins · Actual 4

  • L

    Kyle Tucker · over

    Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0

  • L

    Luis Garcia Jr. · over

    Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0

  • W

    Matthew Boyd · under

    Cubs @ Royals · Actual 3

  • W

    Matt Olson · over

    Braves @ Yankees · Actual 1

  • W

    Michael Lorenzen · under

    Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 13

  • L

    Pete Crow-Armstrong · over

    Cubs @ Royals · Actual 0

  • L

    Rafael Devers · over

    Tigers @ Giants · Actual 0

  • W

    Randy Vasquez · under

    Astros @ Padres · Actual 1

  • L

    Taylor Trammell · over

    Astros @ Padres · Actual 0

  • L

    Teoscar Hernandez · over

    Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0

  • W

    Troy Melton · under

    Tigers @ Giants · Actual 4

  • L

    Tyler Soderstrom · over

    Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 0

  • L

    Victor Mesa Jr. · over

    Rays @ Mariners · Actual 0