Sports Picks Archive — Sunday, August 9, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -105

Sunday matinee at Nationals Park, with Washington chasing a sweep and Cincinnati trying to salvage the finale. At nearly a pick’em price, I’m riding with the home side. The matchup turns on Washington’s left-handed bats against Brady Singer. Lefties have hit .293 with an .846 OPS and 15 homers against him, and the Nationals can keep that pressure coming throughout the lineup. Singer’s 4.95 xERA and recent command issues leave traffic-and-damage potential for an offense averaging 5.3 runs per game. Brad Lord’s ugly home split keeps my confidence measured, but Washington can limit his exposure in a planned bullpen game and lean on the stronger current relief unit. The Nationals have controlled the first two games, their offense owns the cleaner matchup, and I only need them to win—not cover. Nationals ML -105.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Red Sox· -102

Sunday afternoon at Fenway, hot air, a breeze toward right, and a series sitting even after Oakland stopped Boston’s nine-game heater. The Athletics are still the underdog, but this is a better spot to take the run than lay an expensive number with the home side. J.T. Ginn gives Oakland a credible path through the middle innings. His contact profile is solid, he has handled right-handed bats especially well, and Boston’s lineup is missing some of its usual depth. The Red Sox are opening with Erik Miller, so Oakland should get multiple looks at the pitching staff rather than dealing with a conventional starter working deep. Boston owns the decisive bullpen advantage, and that is the danger, but Athletics +1.5 protects a one-run game at nearly even money. It also benefits from Boston batting last, since a one-run Red Sox lead can end without another chance to create run-line separation. My card is Athletics +1.5 at -102.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Braves· -141

The Yankees go for the sweep in the Bronx, with a hot afternoon and the wind pushing toward the short porch in right. Two one-run games have made this series tight, but New York owns the better setup in the finale. Cam Schlittler is the separator. His 2.26 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 171-to-31 strikeout-to-walk mark give the Yankees a substantial starting-pitching advantage. Grant Holmes has pitched well lately, but his 4.70 xERA and vulnerability against fastballs and hard contact are dangerous against a Yankees order featuring seven left-handed bats. Schlittler’s weaker home results and Atlanta’s dangerous middle of the order keep this from being a comfortable play, especially with New York’s late-inning arms carrying some recent work. Still, the cleaner path belongs to the Yankees: superior starter, strong bullpen and a favorable offensive matchup. I’ll lay the price with Yankees ML at -141.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Blue Jays· -112

Citizens Bank Park gets the Sunday spotlight, with the Blue Jays chasing a sweep and the Phillies trying to stop the bleeding. I’m laying the run and a half with Philadelphia at -112. The handicap starts with the sizable pitching advantage. Jesús Luzardo brings a 3.36 ERA, 2.95 xERA and elite contact suppression into a matchup with a depleted Toronto lineup missing George Springer. Shane Bieber’s 5.11 ERA is backed by an alarming 7.43 xERA, a 1.68 WHIP and a 45.5% hard-hit rate—dangerous numbers against Harper, Turner and a deep Phillies order in a hitter-friendly park. Toronto’s bullpen is the biggest obstacle, but its best finisher, Louis Varland, has thrown 53 pitches over two recent appearances. Philadelphia should have opportunities to build separation before the late innings, while Jhoan Duran gives the Phillies a rested shutdown option if they get there with a lead. Gary’s play: Phillies -1.5 at -112.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Angels· -140

Sunday afternoon in Miami, roof closed, series tied, and the rubber match is on the line. I’m backing the Marlins at home on the moneyline at -140. Miami owns the better starting-pitching matchup. Ryan Gusto has been steadier than his record suggests, while Grayson Rodriguez brings a 7.24 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP and serious problems against left-handed hitters. That gives Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee a favorable path against a fastball that has been hit hard all season. The Angels have averaged only 2.3 runs over their last 10 games, and one good Rodriguez start isn’t enough for me to dismiss the larger body of work. Gusto doesn’t need to dominate; he just needs to keep Miami close before a rested bullpen takes over. At -140, I’ll pay the price for the home side to finish the series.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -140

Rubber match at PNC Park, with first pitch under the Sunday sun and the wind lightly carrying toward center. Pittsburgh answered Friday’s loss with a 9-0 win Saturday, and I’m backing the Pirates to finish the series. Jared Jones owns the sharper underlying profile, pairing a 98.4 mph fastball with a slider that generates a 38.6% whiff rate. Sean Manaea has settled in lately, but right-handed hitters have posted an .833 OPS against him, and Pittsburgh can attack that weakness throughout the order. Carson Benge’s wrist-related absence also removes the Mets’ hottest bat. The Pirates have the better bullpen, with a 3.15 ERA and several late-inning options available after a manageable workload Saturday. That relief edge matters if the starters keep this close, and Pittsburgh’s lineup has the cleaner path to creating separation against Manaea. The card: Pirates moneyline at -140.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Royals· -158

Hot afternoon at Kauffman Stadium, the wind blowing out, and a rubber match between a playoff contender and a dangerous spoiler. Both starters are making their first appearance for their new clubs, adding another wrinkle to the finale. I trust Matthew Boyd’s current form and workload more. He has completed at least six innings in six straight starts, posting a 2.18 ERA across his last three, and his strong numbers against left-handed hitters give him a useful answer for red-hot Jac Caglianone. Randy Dobnak’s 1.16 ERA looks much shakier beside his 4.86 xERA, modest strikeout rate and 13 walks in 31 innings. The biggest separation comes after the starters leave. Chicago owns the deeper lineup and a substantial bullpen advantage, while Kansas City’s relief corps has carried a 5.03 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Kauffman’s dimensions make the run line less attractive, so I’m backing the Cubs to win outright at -158.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ White Sox· -125

Sunday afternoon at Rate Field, series on the line, and both clubs trying to stay in the AL Central race. I’m taking Cleveland to win the finale at -125. The clearest edge is against Davis Martin. He has allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts, Cleveland’s current lineup owns 12 hits in 32 career at-bats against him, and his high-contact profile is dangerous against Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter and Nathaniel Lowe. Joey Cantillo carries some traffic risk, but his curveball-changeup combination gives him the superior swing-and-miss path. The wind blowing in should limit Chicago’s power advantage and reward the pitcher with the better secondary stuff. Cleveland also has the stronger late-inning options if Cantillo can get the game through five, but its recent bullpen volatility makes the run line unnecessary. Guardians moneyline is the card.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Twins· -124

Sunday afternoon under the closed roof in Milwaukee, with the series tied and Jacob Misiorowski taking the ball for the Brewers. This is the spot where I’m willing to ask the home side to win by two. Misiorowski owns a 1.63 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP and 195 strikeouts, and his dominance is supported by a 1.91 xERA and minuscule 2.8% barrel rate allowed. That is a brutal matchup for a Minnesota lineup whose lower half has been quiet, even with Royce Lewis and Josh Bell swinging hot bats. On the other side, Connor Prielipp has been respectable lately but still carries a 4.75 ERA, allows plenty of hard contact and has not consistently worked deep into games. The bullpen gap strengthens the case. Milwaukee’s current relief corps owns a 2.91 ERA and is both better and fresher than Minnesota’s group, giving the Brewers a strong chance to protect and extend a lead. The price is not cheap, but the starting-pitching advantage and late-inning edge make Brewers -1.5 at -124 my play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -158

Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium, with the rubber game sitting there for the taking. I’m backing St. Louis to finish the series with a win. Michael Lorenzen is the matchup I want to attack. He’s carrying a 6.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP, has surrendered 16 earned runs across his last three starts, and has been especially vulnerable to left-handed hitters. That gives Alec Burleson and the Cardinals’ other lefty bats a favorable route to early damage, while Colorado’s shaky bullpen offers little relief once Lorenzen exits. Michael McGreevy has some troubling underlying numbers of his own, so I’m avoiding the run line against a Rockies offense that has been swinging it well. Still, his command, his 3.28 ERA at Busch and St. Louis’ substantial bullpen advantage make the Cardinals the more trustworthy side. The price isn’t cheap, but Cardinals moneyline at -158 is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Rangers· +116

Sunday afternoon under the closed roof at Globe Life Field, with Texas hunting a sweep and Baltimore trying to stop a three-game slide. The Rangers have momentum, but this matchup gives the Orioles a real chance to flip the script. Kumar Rocker has been much more vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and Baltimore can send five bats from that side, led by Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser. Cade Povich draws a right-heavy Texas lineup, which plays into his stronger platoon split, and his six scoreless innings last time out suggest he returned ready after the long layoff. Texas owns the better recent form and bullpen, so this is no layup. But Baltimore has the more favorable starter-to-lineup matchup, and I’m willing to back that edge at an underdog price. Gary’s Take: Orioles moneyline at +116.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -123

The rubber match is set at Oracle Park, with Logan Webb trying to steady the Giants after Detroit’s 8-0 answer on Saturday. I’m laying the short price with the Tigers at -123. Troy Melton is the separator. His 1.58 ERA carries some regression risk, but the underlying profile remains strong: premium velocity, multiple swing-and-miss secondaries and limited hard contact from either side of the plate. That is a tough assignment for a Giants lineup that has been inconsistent, particularly with several cold bats near the bottom. Webb and the park should keep this competitive, which is why I prefer the moneyline to Detroit -1.5. The Tigers have the hotter lineup, the better recent run prevention and the more trustworthy bullpen as a whole. I expect Melton to hand over a lead and Detroit to finish the job.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· -129

Sunday afternoon at Chase Field, roof closed, series tied, and the Dodgers are trying to turn one hard-earned win into actual momentum. This rubber match has the feel of another close one. I’m backing Los Angeles because Justin Wrobleski’s matchup is better than his recent results suggest. Arizona’s lineup leans heavily right-handed, and Wrobleski has held righties to a .220 average and .616 OPS. Eduardo Rodriguez owns the prettier ERA, but his 4.86 xERA points toward regression, and the Dodgers’ current lineup has hit him well over 49 career at-bats. Arizona has the stronger bullpen, which is why I’m staying away from the run line. Still, the Dodgers have the deeper lineup, and Ohtani, Pages and Tucker are all swinging well enough to make Rodriguez pay. Gary’s Take: Dodgers moneyline at -129.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Mariners· -104

Sunday afternoon in Seattle, with the Rays going for the sweep and the Mariners trying to stop a three-game slide. Tampa Bay has won five straight, while Seattle’s offense has managed just three runs through the first two games of this series. I’m backing the Rays because the pitching indicators favor Ian Seymour more than the surface numbers suggest. His 3.47 xERA is considerably better than his 4.27 ERA, and his changeup gives him a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon. Emerson Hancock owns the prettier ERA, but his 4.09 xERA and elevated hard-hit rate leave room for Tampa Bay’s left-handed lineup to do damage. The late innings are the separator. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been substantially better than Seattle’s, even with several key Rays relievers carrying recent workloads. At essentially an even price, I’ll take the deeper team, the hotter club and the side with more ways to finish the game. Rays moneyline at -104.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Padres· +103

Sunday night at Petco, a rubber match between two clubs separated by one game in the standings. I’m backing Houston at plus money in a matchup that looks closer to a coin flip than the market suggests. Randy Vásquez’s 4.19 ERA masks a 6.11 xERA, weak swing-and-miss numbers and hard contact throughout the season. Left-handed hitters have posted an .873 OPS against him, giving Yordan Alvarez, Taylor Trammell, Daulton Varsho and LaMonte Wade Jr. a favorable path through Houston’s lineup. Cristian Javier carries plenty of risk, but his latest six-inning outing offered some encouragement, and Houston’s bullpen has allowed only three earned runs across its last seven games. The Astros have the stronger offense and better recent run differential, so Astros ML +103 is the value side of a tight game.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

BRAD LORDPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 1.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -185

I’m betting Lord’s role more than his season ERA. He recently returned from the injured list, threw one inning four days ago and is opening a planned bullpen game, so Washington has little reason to let him face Cincinnati’s order three times. The ugly home split and the Reds’ power create risk, but a short assignment gives Lord a strong chance to leave before allowing two earned runs.

GARY'S PICK

BRADY SINGERK'S OVER 4.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +100

Singer has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts and recorded at least five strikeouts in five of his last six. Washington’s first four hitters all carry some swing-and-miss, giving his slider and sweeper—his two best whiff pitches—multiple paths to early strikeouts. Singer can give up damage and still reach five before Cincinnati turns the game over to its bullpen.

THE LONG SHOT

DAYLEN LILEHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +533

Lile gets the matchup I want at a price worth attacking. Left-handed hitters have tagged Brady Singer for a .293 average, an .846 OPS and 15 home runs, with Singer’s sinker-driven approach producing plenty of hittable contact. Lile has four homers over his last 15 games and is driving the ball better than that batting average suggests: a 94.6 mph recent average exit velocity with 11 hard-hit balls in 17 balls in play. He has already done damage twice in this series, and batting cleanup should give him multiple chances to punish Singer. Daylen Lile over 0.5 home runs at +533.

GARY'S PICK

J.T. GINNPITCHER OUTS OVER 16.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -108

This asks Ginn for 5 2/3 innings, a mark he has cleared in five of his last eight starts. He returned with six innings on August 4, and his season workload says there is no reason to expect a short leash. Oakland also needs length after its bullpen covered 11 2/3 innings over the last three games and posted a 6.31 ERA over the last week. Boston’s hot lineup and the hitting conditions are the risks, but Ginn limits hard contact and has been particularly tough on right-handed bats. I’ll take over 16.5 outs at -108.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER SODERSTROMHR OVER 0.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +562

Soderstrom has homered in each of the first two games of this series, but the underlying contact is the stronger reason to stay with him: a 98.3 mph recent average exit velocity with 13 hard-hit balls on 17 balls in play. Fenway is playing in hot weather with an 11 mph breeze toward right field, an inviting setup for his left-handed power. Erik Miller opening from the left side and Boston’s strong bullpen keep this a modest-conviction play, but +562 only requires about a 15 percent hit rate. The price is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

JIM JARVISHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -105

Jarvis is batting ninth against one of the toughest right-handers on the board. He is 6-for-35 over his last 15 games and 1-for-14 over the last seven, while Cam Schlittler has held left-handed hitters to a .204 average and .594 OPS. Jarvis also faces the possibility of only three plate appearances before the Yankees’ strong bullpen takes over. At essentially even money, I’ll bet he finishes without a hit.

GARY'S PICK

CAM SCHLITTLERK'S OVER 6.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -142

Schlittler has 171 strikeouts in 139.2 innings, and his fastball has produced a 31.8% whiff rate while sitting just under 98 mph. He has reached at least eight strikeouts in four of his last six starts, and even his three-inning stumble last time out included six punchouts. Atlanta has dangerous bats, but Schlittler can clear this number without pitching especially deep. I’ll lay the price on over 6.5 strikeouts.

GARY'S PICK

JARED JONESPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 4.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· -125

I’m backing Jones to hold the Mets to four hits or fewer. He has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, and his 3.32 xERA and .284 expected wOBA support the results. The combination of a 98.4 mph fastball and high-whiff slider limits clean contact, while Carson Benge’s wrist scratch removes New York’s hottest bat. Jones also hasn't consistently worked deep, which reduces the number of chances the Mets get against him.

GARY'S PICK

ESMERLYN VALDEZWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +114

I want plus money on Valdez drawing a walk after he has done it in 10 of his last 15 games. Manaea has issued nine walks across his last three starts and has gone over 1.5 walks in six of his last eight. Valdez’s power gives Manaea a reason to work carefully, particularly with the left-hander carrying an .833 OPS allowed to right-handed bats.

GARY'S PICK

JESUS LUZARDOK'S OVER 6.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +116

I’m backing Luzardo to reach seven strikeouts at plus money. He has 164 punchouts in 136.2 innings and has cleared this number in five of his last six starts while completing at least six innings five times during that stretch. Toronto generally limits strikeouts, but today’s lineup is missing George Springer and Nathan Lukes. Okamoto’s 39% recent whiff rate and the inexperienced bats surrounding the bottom of the order give Luzardo enough targets. His contact suppression should also keep his pitch count under control and give him the necessary innings.

GARY'S PICK

BRYSON STOTTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -110

Stott has cleared this combination in 10 of his last 15 games, and the underlying contact is even better than the results. He owns a .357 average and 1.137 OPS over that span, with an average exit velocity of 94.8 mph and 11 hard-hit balls among 19 balls in play. Batting sixth gives him runners to drive in and enough support behind him to score. Against a starter carrying a 1.68 WHIP, 45.5% hard-hit rate and 7.43 xERA, Stott has several paths to produce the two combined events we need.

GARY'S PICK

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZPITCHER OUTS UNDER 16.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +105

Rodriguez has completed six innings just once in his last eight starts, yet I’m getting plus money on him recording fewer than 17 outs. His seven-inning outing in Baltimore was encouraging, but it doesn’t erase a season of short starts, a 49.7% hard-hit rate and a four-seam fastball carrying a .439 xwOBA. Miami can send four left-handed bats plus a switch-hitter at him, and lefties have produced a .333 average and .961 OPS in this matchup. That lineup construction gives the Marlins several chances to build traffic and elevate his pitch count. I’m betting Rodriguez is gone by the end of the fifth.

GARY'S PICK

KYLE STOWERSTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +115

Stowers gets the matchup I want at the top of Miami’s order. He has four home runs and a 1.027 OPS over his last 15 days, and he has reached safely five times in the first two games of this series. Rodriguez has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .333 with a .961 OPS, while his four-seam fastball has been thrown more than half the time and carries a .439 xwOBA. Stowers has also been producing firm contact recently. I don’t need him to leave the park—one extra-base hit or a pair of hits gets us there at plus money.

GARY'S PICK

MATTHEW BOYDK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -115

Boyd has stayed under this number in six of his last eight starts, and his declining swing-and-miss gives that trend substance. His four-seamer owns an 8.9% whiff rate, while the slider is his only consistent put-away pitch and accounts for just 15.4% of his usage. Kansas City’s lineup also has several aggressive contact bats, including Jac Caglianone, Salvador Perez and Michael Massey. Boyd can pitch effectively and work deep without piling up strikeouts, making under 4.5 attractive at -115.

GARY'S PICK

ALEX BREGMANTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +105

Bregman’s recent results undersell the quality of his contact. He has averaged 94.6 mph off the bat with 14 hard-hit balls among his last 24 balls in play, and he has cleared 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 15 games. The matchup is better for Chicago’s right-handed bats: Dobnak has allowed a .806 OPS to righties, while his two most-used pitches—the sinker and sweeper—both carry an xwOBA around .386. Batting third with the wind blowing out, Bregman has multiple paths to two bases at a plus price.

GARY'S PICK

DAVIS MARTINK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +100

Cleveland’s lineup is built to deny Martin easy strikeouts. Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Travis Bazzana and Brayan Rocchio all have recent whiff rates of 17% or lower, while the Guardians’ current hitters have struck out only twice in 32 career at-bats against him. Martin has cleared this number in just three of his last eight starts, and his recent swing-and-miss rates have been poor. At even money, I’ll take three strikeouts or fewer.

GARY'S PICK

JOEY CANTILLOPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· -155

Cantillo has not recorded more than 15 outs in any of his last six starts and has gone over this line only once in his last eight. His 1.47 WHIP creates a steady pitch-count tax, and Chicago can send six right-handed or switch hitters at a pitcher allowing a .777 OPS to righties. He would need to return for the sixth and record an out to beat me. I’m laying the price on another five-inning ceiling.

GARY'S PICK

BROOKS LEEHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -105

Lee is 1-for-18 over the last seven days and 6-for-41 over the last 15, and this is a severe step up in difficulty. Batting left-handed against Jacob Misiorowski puts him into a split where Misiorowski has held lefties to a .101 average and .347 OPS. His 100.6 mph fastball, 2.8% barrel rate allowed and Milwaukee's strong bullpen leave Lee very little margin. At essentially even money, I’ll take him to finish without a hit.

GARY'S PICK

BRICE TURANGSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -120

Turang has recorded a single in 11 of his last 15 games, is 18-for-55 over that span and has five hits through the first two games of this series. His recent contact has produced no barrels on 18 balls in play, which is useful for a singles prop because I’m not paying for extra-base damage. Connor Prielipp has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .296, and Turang should receive four or five plate appearances from the second spot. I like him to find one single at -120.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL LORENZENPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBColorado Rockies· -138

Lorenzen has completed more than five innings only once in his last six starts, and his last three have lasted just 10.2 innings combined. A 1.85 WHIP creates constant traffic and elevated pitch counts, while this Cardinals lineup can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher allowing a 1.030 OPS to lefties. I’m betting he is gone before recording an out in the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

ALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· -110

Burleson gets the strongest individual matchup in the Cardinals order. Lorenzen has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .355 with a 1.030 OPS, and his primary sinker and cutter have both been punished. Burleson is producing authoritative contact, owns a .533 expected slugging percentage and has three home runs over his last seven games. Batting third against Lorenzen and a vulnerable Colorado bullpen gives him multiple paths to two bases.

GARY'S PICK

GUNNAR HENDERSONWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +151

Henderson has drawn a walk in nine of his last 15 games, and his recent 15% chase rate shows the plate discipline is intact even while the hits have been scarce. Kumar Rocker has issued two walks in four straight starts, and Henderson gets the maximum opportunity from the leadoff spot. The matchup and plus-money price make this my favorite prop on the board.

GARY'S PICK

CARLOS NARVAEZH+R+RBI UNDER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +104

Narvaez is 1-for-20 over the last 15 days and has contributed a hit, run or RBI in only four of his last 15 games. He bats ninth against a starter holding right-handed hitters to a .209 average and .587 OPS, with Texas able to follow Rocker with its stronger relief arms. I like plus money on another quiet afternoon from the bottom of Baltimore's order.

GARY'S PICK

TROY MELTONPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 4.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +115

I’m taking Melton under 4.5 hits allowed at a plus price. He has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, and that suppression is supported by a .170 opponent average, a 33.7% hard-hit rate and several effective secondary pitches. San Francisco’s lineup has multiple cold bats in the bottom half, while Melton has held both lefties and righties below a .175 average. Oracle Park adds another layer of protection. Even if the Giants make him work, I expect walks to be a bigger threat than five hits.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN KOSSHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· -105

I’m betting Koss to finish without a hit. He is batting ninth after going 5-for-33 over the last 15 days, and the recent contact profile offers little reason to expect an immediate turn: modest exit velocity, a 33% whiff rate and a 44% chase rate. Melton has limited right-handed hitters to a .171 average and .432 OPS. Koss also has the fewest projected plate appearances in the lineup, so getting essentially even money on the hitless side is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

BEN RORTVEDTHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +108

Will Smith’s absence puts Rortvedt in the lineup against a particularly unfriendly matchup. He bats left-handed, Eduardo Rodriguez has held lefties to a .641 OPS, and Rortvedt is buried ninth with an .112 xBA. I’ll take plus money on him finishing without a hit.

GARY'S PICK

GABRIEL MORENOH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -121

Moreno has cleared this number in 11 of his last 15 games, producing 13 RBI during that stretch. He is batting third, owns a .371 xwOBA and has whiffed on only 13% of his recent swings. Justin Wrobleski has allowed 12 earned runs across his last two starts, giving Moreno several ways to get to two combined hits, runs and RBI.

GARY'S PICK

IAN SEYMOURK'S OVER 5.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· -111

Seymour’s strikeout production is stronger than his ERA suggests, and the 41% whiff rate on his changeup gives him the weapon to finish Seattle’s right-handed bats. He has cleared this number in five of eight starts, including nine strikeouts his last time out. Against a Mariners offense averaging 8.5 strikeouts per game, six is a reasonable target at nearly even money.

GARY'S PICK

JONATHAN ARANDAH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +102

Aranda is batting second for a lineup built to challenge Hancock with left-handed hitters. He has a hit in 12 of his last 15 games and has cleared this combined number nine times during that stretch. Hancock’s 4.09 xERA and 42.9% hard-hit rate are less convincing than his surface ERA, and Aranda’s combination of contact, power and lineup position gives him several paths to two at plus money.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +600

Schlittler is a difficult assignment, but +600 is too generous for the hottest power bat on the board. Olson has six homers in his last 15 games, including three in his last seven, with six barrels on only 18 recent balls in play. The left-handed pull power fits the short porch, and the heat and wind toward right field add another small boost. Schlittler can dominate this lineup and still make one mistake; Olson’s current contact gives him the best chance to punish it.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE TUCKERHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +800

Tucker is seeing the ball too well for this price. He has four homers in his last 15 games, nine recent hard-hit balls and has already gone deep in this series. Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.71 ERA masks a 4.86 xERA, and Tucker gets additional chances against an Arizona bullpen that has allowed 11 runs over its last seven games. At +800, I’m betting Tucker’s current power carries into the finale.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +750

Garcia gets the matchup I want for a long-shot homer: a left-handed cleanup bat facing Grant Holmes in hot weather with the wind carrying toward Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch. Holmes has allowed twice as many homers to lefties as righties and carries a 4.70 xERA with a 42.5% hard-hit rate. Garcia has gone deep three times in his last 15 games, and his recent 15% whiff rate gives him a good chance to put a mistake in play. At +750, the price is long enough for me to take the swing.

THE LONG SHOT

COREY SEAGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +750

The price is doing the work here. Cade Povich has allowed three homers in only 36 at-bats against left-handed hitters, and his 44.2% hard-hit rate leaves room for another damaging swing. Seager’s recent results are uneven, but his contact has been loud: a 92.6 mph average exit velocity with nine hard-hit balls over his recent sample. He also drove one 418 feet Saturday. At +750, I’ll bet Seager to leave the yard again.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +350

This is the clearest power matchup on the board. Michael Lorenzen has allowed a 1.030 OPS and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters, while Burleson has three homers and three barrels over his last seven games. With 90-degree heat and a 10 mph wind blowing toward left, I’ll take Burleson to leave the yard at +350.

THE LONG SHOT

TEOSCAR HERNANDEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +575

Hernandez gets the platoon advantage against Eduardo Rodriguez and brings the right contact shape for a home-run swing. He has three homers in his last 15 games, two barrels on his last 20 balls in play and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity over that stretch. Rodriguez’s results have been much better than his underlying contact profile, and Chase Field remains a favorable place to bet power. I’ll take Hernandez at +575.

THE LONG SHOT

VICTOR MESA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +750

Mesa is seeing the ball with real authority: four barrels on 18 recent balls in play, including Saturday’s 412-foot homer. He gets the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock, whose 3.33 ERA is undercut by a 4.09 xERA, a 42.9% hard-hit rate and 10 homers allowed to left-handed hitters. T-Mobile Park takes something away from every power bet, but +750 gives me enough room to bet that Mesa’s current contact translates again.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +440

Chourio is the one power price I want on this board. He has three homers in his last 15 games and has recently produced five barrels on just 17 balls in play, so the quality of contact is there. Connor Prielipp has allowed eight of his nine home runs to right-handed hitters, while his four-seam has generated only a 14.8% whiff rate with a .372 xwOBA. Chourio gets the platoon advantage from the leadoff spot, giving him the best combination of matchup, form and likely plate appearances at +440.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +420

I’m taking Griffin Conine to homer at +420. Grayson Rodriguez has allowed a .961 OPS to left-handed hitters while surrendering a 49.7% hard-hit rate and an 11.5% barrel rate overall. Conine has three homers in his last 15 days, and his recent contact includes two barrels on 15 balls in play. The strikeout risk is substantial, but that volatility is built into the number. Against a fly-ball pitcher who has struggled badly with left-handed power, +420 is enough for me to take the swing.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL DEVERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +700

Devers is the one Giants bat I’ll back to do damage against Troy Melton. He has three homers over his last 15 games and has recently produced a 97.3 mph average exit velocity with 14 hard-hit balls. Melton has been excellent, but seven of the eight homers he has allowed have come against left-handed hitters. Oracle Park lowers the baseline, yet its short right-field corner gives Devers a viable route at a price that compensates for the difficult matchup.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +390

Caminero has four homers in his last 15 days and four barrels among his 20 recent balls in play, with a 94.1 mph average exit velocity. That is the best combination of frequency and impact contact in Tampa Bay’s lineup. Hancock has allowed a 9% barrel rate with significant regression baked into his expected numbers, so I’m willing to attack him with the Rays’ most dangerous power bat even in a pitcher-friendly park.

THE LONG SHOT

HUNTER GOODMANHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +850

Goodman is cold, but +850 is enough to buy the underlying power in favorable hitting weather. Michael McGreevy has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate, owns a 5.62 xERA beneath his much cleaner surface ERA and has surrendered six homers to right-handed hitters in only 165 at-bats. Goodman only needs to catch one, and this price makes that swing worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

RANDY VASQUEZK'S UNDER 2.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +118

Vasquez has not reached three strikeouts in eight consecutive starts, and his recent swing-and-miss profile supports that trend. He has recorded only one strikeout across his last 11.2 innings, while his latest whiff rates have sat between 7% and 13%. Houston has several hitters capable of extending at-bats, and Vasquez’s primary pitches have produced modest whiff rates all season. I would play this under at a standard price; getting +118 makes it my favorite prop on the board.

GARY'S PICK

FERNANDO TATIS JR.TOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +107

Javier has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing them a .305 average and .993 OPS with four home runs in 59 at-bats. His extreme fly-ball profile is also a favorable fit for Tatis, who has produced a 92.8 mph recent average exit velocity with three barrels and two home runs over the last seven days. Petco can contain marginal fly balls, but Tatis gets maximum plate-appearance equity from the leadoff spot and does not need a homer to clear this number. I like the plus price on two total bases.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +700

I’ll take a swing at this price with the hottest power profile on the board. Pete Crow-Armstrong has four homers over his last 15 days and four barrels among his 18 recent balls in play, backed by a 93.1 mph average exit velocity. Randy Dobnak has kept runs off the board, but his 4.86 xERA and 43.4% hard-hit rate suggest the contact has been much less comfortable than his 1.16 ERA implies. Crow-Armstrong gets the platoon advantage from the leadoff spot, giving him a strong chance at five plate appearances. Kauffman is spacious, but the 90-degree afternoon helps the ball carry, and +700 is enough compensation for the park.

THE LONG SHOT

FERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +333

Cristian Javier has been especially vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .993 OPS and four home runs in 59 at-bats. His extreme fly-ball profile gives Tatis the right kind of matchup despite Petco Park, and Tatis has produced three barrels over his last seven games while homering twice in his last 15. Batting leadoff also gives him the best chance at an extra plate appearance. At +333, I’m willing to bet his power breaks through.

THE LONG SHOT

TAYLOR TRAMMELLHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +575

Randy Vásquez has allowed an .873 OPS to left-handed hitters, and his 11.1% barrel rate and 44.6% hard-hit rate make the underlying matchup more inviting than his ERA suggests. Trammell has four home runs in his last 15 games, with three barrels on only 15 recent balls in play, and he already took one deep at Petco in this series. The park is a concern, but +575 pays enough to accept it.

Research

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BULLPENCLE @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 20 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago’s bullpen is running on fumes after covering 20 innings in three games, with several important arms unavailable or restricted. The White Sox need real length from Davis Martin; otherwise Cleveland should control the middle innings.
TEAM RECORDDET @ SF
Tigers 7-1 in Troy Melton's last 8 starts
Detroit has won seven of Troy Melton’s last eight starts, including six straight. The Tigers consistently find the needed answer on his days, and I trust that routine to travel to San Francisco.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ MIA
Angels 1-7 in Grayson Rodriguez's last 8 starts
The Angels are 1-7 in Grayson Rodriguez’s last eight starts and have lost four straight on his days. Miami has its own problems behind Ryan Gusto, but Los Angeles carries the weaker starter-day pattern tonight.
TEAM RECORDCHC @ KC
Cubs 7-1 in Matthew Boyd's last 8 starts
The Cubs have won seven of Matthew Boyd’s last eight starts, making his turn one of their most dependable spots. That six-week rhythm makes Chicago the side I trust tonight in Kansas City.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Shane Bieber
Starts tonight for TOR — 7.43 xERA behind a 5.11 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
BALLPARKCIN @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Brad Lord pitches to a 7.50 ERA
Brad Lord’s 7.50 ERA at Nationals Park makes his home mound a legitimate concern, not a split I am willing to dismiss. Cincinnati has the clearer path to damage once traffic begins building.
P 2.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
STREAKLAD @ ARI
LAD have lost 7 straight
7 losses in a row for LAD, a -21 run margin across the slide — they limp in 2-8 over their last 10.
P team lost 2-4
PLATOON EDGECOL @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
Alec Burleson gets Michael Lorenzen from his preferred side and bats third. That is a premium setup for him to drive in runs if St. Louis creates early traffic.
P 1-for-4, 4 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMCOL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 9.49 ERA over his last 3 starts
Michael McGreevy’s 9.49 ERA across his last three starts reflects a pitcher who is no longer containing traffic or avoiding crooked innings. Colorado should apply pressure from the first trip through the order.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
PLATOON EDGELAA @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 4th against Grayson Rodriguez (RHP)
Griffin Conine gets the right-handed matchup he wants and lands in Miami’s cleanup spot. I like his opportunity to turn early baserunners into damage against Grayson Rodriguez.
P 2-for-4, 8 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ MIL
Andrew Vaughn (bats R) hits 3rd against Connor Prielipp (LHP)
Andrew Vaughn owns a major platoon advantage against left-handed Connor Prielipp. Batting third puts that strength directly behind the top of Milwaukee’s order and gives him an early chance to do damage.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEDET @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Troy Melton (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert’s overall line undersells how much better this matchup is for his left-handed bat. From the sixth spot, he can extend an inning or restart the offense against Troy Melton.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ MIA
Zach Neto: .382 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Ryan Gusto
Zach Neto’s .382 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a genuine loss of timing. Ryan Gusto also keeps him on his weaker side, so I’m staying away from a rebound bet.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
STARTER FORMCLE @ CHW
Davis Martin: 9.56 ERA over his last 3 starts
Davis Martin has been punished repeatedly during a three-start stretch carrying a 9.56 ERA. With runners reaching too easily and Chicago’s bullpen depleted, Cleveland has multiple routes to sustained offense.
P 1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
PLATOON EDGELAA @ MIA
Kyle Stowers (bats L) draws Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), batting 1st
Kyle Stowers leads off with his stronger platoon split against Grayson Rodriguez. The lineup spot gives him maximum exposure and makes him one of Miami’s better individual matchups tonight.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
TEAM RECORDCLE @ CHW
White Sox 2-6 in Davis Martin's last 8 starts
The White Sox are 2-6 in Davis Martin’s last eight starts, and his current form offers little reason to expect the pattern to reverse. Cleveland is the side I want tonight.
TEAM RECORDLAA @ MIA
Marlins 2-6 in Ryan Gusto's last 8 starts
Miami is only 2-6 in Ryan Gusto’s last eight starts and has not established a dependable formula around him. Still, with the Angels losing four straight behind Grayson Rodriguez, the Marlins own the slightly better side of two weak patterns.
TEAM RECORDATL @ NYY
Braves 6-2 in Grant Holmes's last 8 starts
Atlanta has won six straight Grant Holmes starts and six of his last eight overall. The Braves keep playing complete baseball on his days, giving me a starter pattern worth respecting in New York.
BULLPENTOR @ PHI
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Philadelphia’s bullpen has covered 13.7 innings in three games, leaving several late-inning arms unavailable or less than fresh. Toronto’s opening comes if it can shorten the starter’s night and reach the softer relief options early.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 5th spot
Esmerlyn Valdez gets the handedness he handles best against Sean Manaea, and batting fifth puts him in a strong RBI lane. Manaea must navigate that dangerous right-handed matchup before reaching the bottom of Pittsburgh’s order.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCHC @ KC
Randy Dobnak: 1.16 ERA vs 4.86 xERA
I do not buy Randy Dobnak’s 1.16 ERA with a 4.86 xERA sitting underneath it. His low strikeout rate and authoritative contact allowed make the Cubs a dangerous opponent for the correction I expect.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
PLATOON EDGETOR @ PHI
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper owns the matchup he wants against right-hander Shane Bieber and bats third. Philadelphia has placed its biggest platoon threat exactly where he can decide the game.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 4 BB
TEAM RECORDTB @ SEA
Mariners 2-6 in Emerson Hancock's last 8 starts
Seattle has lost six of Emerson Hancock’s last eight starts, making his outings difficult to trust even at home. I’m looking toward Tampa Bay tonight.
TEAM RECORDHOU @ SD
Astros 2-6 in Cristian Javier's last 8 starts
Houston has lost six of Cristian Javier’s last eight starts and now takes that poor team pattern on the road. San Diego is my side tonight.
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ SD
Taylor Trammell (bats L) hits 5th against Randy Vasquez (RHP)
Trammell’s value tonight is clearer through the platoon matchup than his overall line. Facing the right-handed Vasquez gives his bat a chance to provide real production from the fifth spot.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
STREAKCLE @ CHW
CLE games have gone OVER 5 straight
The over has cashed 5 in a row in CLE games: 11.4 combined runs per game vs lines averaging 9.5. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 8 vs 10.5
HEAT CHECKHOU @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.022 OPS in Last 15 Days
Merrill is on a genuine heater, and his established power gives the run more substance than a simple small-sample spike. Extra-base damage or multiple hits are both firmly in play against Houston.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIN @ MIL
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Jacob Misiorowski (RHP)
Trevor Larnach leads off against right-hander Jacob Misiorowski, putting his better platoon split in play immediately. Minnesota is giving him every chance to use that edge multiple times.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
BULLPENTOR @ PHI
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 13.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto’s bullpen has thrown 13.3 innings in three games and has very little flexibility left after heavy recent usage. If the starter cannot provide length, Philadelphia should own the matchup advantage through the middle innings.
HEAT CHECKMIN @ MIL
Royce Lewis: 1.104 OPS in Last 15 Days
Royce Lewis has produced a 1.104 OPS over his last 15 days, and the power supports the surge. With only one total base required, I’m on over 0.5.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFLAA @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .544 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Otto Lopez’s .544 OPS over the last 15 days looks more like poor timing than simple bad luck. Grayson Rodriguez attacks his weaker split, so I don’t expect the turnaround tonight.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
STARTER FORMHOU @ SD
Cristian Javier: 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts
Cristian Javier’s 2.25 ERA over his last three starts comes with cleaner innings and fewer free opportunities for opponents. San Diego is facing a much sharper version of Javier than his season line suggests.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
PLATOON EDGECIN @ WSH
CJ Abrams (bats L) hits 1st against Brady Singer (RHP)
CJ Abrams leads off against right-hander Brady Singer with a .990 mark in this split. Washington is putting its best version of Abrams in position to influence the game from the opening pitch.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
BULLPENOAK @ BOS
Boston Red Sox pen: 16.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Boston’s bullpen has absorbed 16.7 innings in three games, and the likely loss of its main length option matters. Oakland’s best chance is to force an early exit and make the Red Sox divide those innings among several arms.
BULLPENTB @ SEA
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Tampa Bay’s bullpen has covered 13 innings in three games, with multiple important arms likely unavailable. Seattle can turn the game by forcing an early call to relief and reaching the weaker end of the Rays’ pen ahead of schedule.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ PHI
Bryson Stott: 1.137 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bryson Stott’s 1.137 OPS shows a genuinely hot bat, but over 1.5 total bases still asks for extra-base damage or multiple hits. I lean under because tonight’s number gives the pitching more room than his recent form suggests.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKDET @ SF
Colt Keith: 1.171 OPS in Last 15 Days
Colt Keith’s 1.171 OPS over the last 15 days is a legitimate heater, even if it is not his permanent level. With only 0.5 total bases required, one single is enough for me to let the current form carry extra weight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
TWO STARTSPhiladelphia Phillies — week of 8/3
Jesús Luzardo
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 vs Nationals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Blue Jays. 2.95 xERA this season.
PLATOON EDGECOL @ STL
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Mickey Moniak gets Michael McGreevy from his stronger side and bats fifth. The matchup and lineup depth give him a good chance to extend or finish an inning.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TWO STARTSNew York Yankees — week of 8/3
Cam Schlittler
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Cardinals (played), Sun 8/9 vs Braves. 2.95 xERA this season.
HEAD-TO-HEADCIN @ WSH
Nationals are 4-1 vs Reds this season
Washington’s 4-1 record against Cincinnati supplies familiarity, not a convincing betting edge. Tonight’s pitching matchup matters more, and Brad Lord’s home struggles keep me from using the season series to back the Nationals.
PLATOON EDGEATL @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr. bats cleanup with his preferred platoon advantage against Grant Holmes. That gives him a strong chance to finish any rallies the hitters ahead of him create.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADTB @ SEA
Rays are 4-1 vs Mariners this season
Tampa Bay is 4-1 against Seattle, but the latest one-run finish shows how little separation may exist. I give the season series almost no weight when pricing tonight’s game.
HEAD-TO-HEADTOR @ PHI
Blue Jays are 6-3 vs Phillies this season
Toronto’s 6-3 record against Philadelphia belongs in the background. It does not explain tonight’s pitching or bullpen conditions, so I will not make it the foundation of a bet.
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ TEX
Rangers are 4-1 vs Orioles this season
Texas has controlled Baltimore to the tune of a 4-1 season-series record, but that alone does not prove the same pitching advantage exists tonight. It supports the Rangers’ case without creating it.
HEAD-TO-HEADCHC @ KC
Cubs are 4-1 vs Royals this season
Chicago’s 4-1 record against Kansas City matters, and the latest blowout adds weight to it. I still won’t let a short series record create a matchup edge that tonight’s personnel have to earn.
HR THREATBraves @ Yankees
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Schlittler is a difficult assignment, but +600 is too generous for the hottest power bat on the board. Olson has six homers in his last 15 games, including three in his last seven, with six barrels on only 18 recent balls in play.
P 1 HR — 1-for-4, 4 TB
BULLPENDET @ SF
San Francisco Giants pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
San Francisco’s bullpen has worked 16.3 innings in three games and has lost most of its recent length options for tonight. Detroit can expose that shortage by driving up the starter’s pitch count and reaching the middle relief tier early.
COOLING OFFCOL @ STL
Hunter Goodman: .538 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
Hunter Goodman is cold, but Michael McGreevy gives him a reasonable rebound matchup. Goodman has still handled right-handed pitching well enough that I’m not selling him solely on the last 15 days.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB
COOLING OFFCLE @ CHW
Brayan Rocchio: .335 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Davis Martin
Brayan Rocchio’s .335 OPS over the last 15 days is ugly, but Davis Martin gives him a legitimate reset point. Right-handed pitching is Rocchio’s better lane, so I see bounce-back potential rather than an automatic fade.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Grayson Rodriguez
Starts tonight for LAA — 7.2 xERA behind a 7.24 ERA.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ PHI
Luis Arraez
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.43 xERA) — .806 OPS, bats 4th.
HR THREATDodgers @ Diamondbacks
Kyle Tucker
Gary's Take Tucker is seeing the ball too well for this price. He has four homers in his last 15 games, nine recent hard-hit balls and has already gone deep in this series.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 3 TB
BATTER VS ARMLAD @ ARI
Freddie Freeman vs Eduardo Rodriguez: .533
Freeman has controlled this matchup with Rodriguez, hitting .533 while also forcing him into the zone. With solid recent form behind him, I expect Freeman to be one of Arizona’s hardest outs to navigate.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TWO STARTSDetroit Tigers — week of 8/3
Troy Melton
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Mariners (played), Sun 8/9 at Giants. 3.11 xERA this season.
HR THREATReds @ Nationals
Daylen Lile
Gary's Take Lile gets the matchup I want at a price worth attacking. Left-handed hitters have tagged Brady Singer for a .293 average, an .846 OPS and 15 home runs, with Singer’s sinker-driven approach producing plenty of hittable contact.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFATL @ NYY
Trent Grisham: .429 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
Trent Grisham’s .429 OPS over the last 15 days fits a hitter whose swing has gone quiet. His modest baseline against right-handers gives me little reason to expect Grant Holmes to spark a rebound.
P 2-for-4, 6 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Otto Lopez
Otto Lopez belongs on a roster today. He’s batting .317 with an .821 OPS from the third spot, and tonight he faces struggling Grayson Rodriguez, who carries a 7.2 xERA. Add him in all formats where you need a shortstop or a strong lineup spot for tonight.
HR THREATAngels @ Marlins
Kyle Stowers
Gary's Take I want the left-handed power against Grayson Rodriguez. Lefties have a .961 OPS against him, and his four-seam fastball has been punished for a .439 xwOBA while producing very few whiffs.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 4 TB
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/3
Gabriel Hughes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Rays (played), Sun 8/9 at Cardinals (proj). 2.4 xERA this season.
STARTER FORMLAD @ ARI
Justin Wrobleski: 7.02 ERA over his last 3 starts
Justin Wrobleski’s 7.02 ERA over his last three starts shows how consistently his mistakes have become runs. Arizona has an inviting matchup if it attacks strikes and keeps pressure on him with men aboard.
P 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/3
Jared Jones
Two starts this scoring week — Tue 8/4 at Brewers (played), Sun 8/9 vs Mets. 3.32 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/3
Logan Henderson
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 vs Pirates (played), Sun 8/9 vs Twins (proj). 2.6 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFTOR @ PHI
Brandon Marsh: .456 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Bieber
Brandon Marsh’s .456 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a temporary timing issue. Shane Bieber gives him his preferred right-handed matchup, so I’m open to buying the correction.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFCIN @ WSH
Nasim Nunez: .325 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Nasim Nunez owns a .325 OPS over the last 15 days without much season-long production supporting a bounce. Brady Singer also puts him on his weaker side, so I expect the slump to continue.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STREAKTB @ SEA
TB have won 4 straight
TB have taken 4 straight and own a +11 run differential over the run. Last 10: 7-3.
P team won 4-1
STARTER FORMHOU @ SD
Randy Vasquez: 0.68 ERA over his last 3 starts
Randy Vasquez has posted a 0.68 ERA over his last three starts by keeping the bases remarkably clean. He is doing it through contact management rather than overpowering hitters, so Houston will have chances to test how sustainable this run is.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
COOLING OFFATL @ NYY
Ben Rice: .597 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Grant Holmes
Ben Rice’s recent .597 OPS undersells the hitter he has been against right-handed pitching. Grant Holmes gives him the split I want, making tonight a good rebound spot.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFTOR @ PHI
Kazuma Okamoto: .522 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Jesus Luzardo
Kazuma Okamoto’s .522 OPS over the last 15 days looks like a real dip, and Jesus Luzardo turns him to his weaker side. Tonight’s matchup gives me no reason to force a rebound play.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATBlue Jays @ Phillies
Bryce Harper
Gary's Take Harper has four homers in his last 15 games, including three in the last seven, with three barrels across his recent 18 balls in play. Bieber has allowed a 45.5% hard-hit rate and seven homers in only 37 innings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 4 BB
BALLPARKATL @ NYY
At Yankee Stadium, Cam Schlittler pitches to a 4.32 ERA
Cam Schlittler’s 4.32 ERA at Yankee Stadium points to a meaningful home vulnerability. Atlanta gets the more hittable version of him and can turn early traffic into a damaging inning.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ PHI
Bryson Stott
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.43 xERA) — .752 OPS, bats 6th.
TWO STARTSTampa Bay Rays — week of 8/3
Ian Seymour
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 at Rockies (played), Sun 8/9 at Mariners. 3.47 xERA this season.
HEAT CHECKCHC @ KC
Nico Hoerner: .884 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nico Hoerner’s recent improvement is meaningful, but 3.5 total bases still demands a major offensive night. I’m not chasing that threshold solely because his bat has heated up.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSArizona Diamondbacks — week of 8/3
Brandon Pfaadt
Two starts this scoring week — Mon 8/3 vs Padres (played), Sat 8/8 vs Dodgers (played). 3.63 xERA this season.
REGRESSIONTOR @ PHI
Shane Bieber: 5.11 ERA vs 7.43 xERA
Shane Bieber’s 5.11 ERA is already poor, yet his 7.43 xERA says the underlying performance has been even worse. Too many runners, too few missed bats and dangerous contact make Philadelphia a strong candidate to expose him.
P 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
PARK WEATHERCHC @ KC
Wind blowing out 13 mph at Kauffman Stadium tonight
A 13 mph wind blowing out at Kauffman Stadium gives lifted contact an extra gear. With the heat helping too, the high total looks justified rather than inflated.
P final total 12 vs 10.5 (over lean)
HEAT CHECKLAA @ MIA
Kyle Stowers: 1.027 OPS in Last 15 Days
Kyle Stowers has a 1.027 OPS over the last 15 days with legitimate power behind it. Over 1.5 total bases is demanding, but his matchup and current extra-base ability put me on the over.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ STL
Willi Castro: 1.084 OPS in Last 15 Days
Willi Castro’s 1.084 OPS is real form, but it sits well above his established level in a modest sample. At a 1.5-total-base line, I prefer the under.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONLAD @ ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez: 2.71 ERA vs 4.86 xERA
Eduardo Rodriguez’s 2.71 ERA has more shine than his 4.86 xERA supports. He limits some hard contact, but his modest strikeout rate and favorable batted-ball outcomes leave him vulnerable to a Dodgers correction tonight.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
HR THREATAthletics @ Red Sox
Tyler Soderstrom
Gary's Take Soderstrom has homered in each of the first two games of this series, but the underlying contact is the stronger reason to stay with him: a 98.3 mph recent average exit velocity with 13 hard-hit balls on 17 balls in play. Fenway is playing in hot weather with an 11 mph breeze toward right field, an inviting setup for his left-handed power.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 3 TB
BALLPARKTOR @ PHI
Jesus Luzardo owns a 4.85 ERA at Citizens Bank Park — 2.01 everywhere else
Jesus Luzardo’s 4.85 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, compared with 2.01 elsewhere, makes the venue impossible to ignore. Toronto may not produce constant traffic, but its best contact can carry much greater consequences here.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 12 K
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/3
Tarik Skubal
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/4 at Cubs (played), Sun 8/9 at Diamondbacks (proj). 2.97 xERA this season.
FANTASY PICKUPSLAA @ MIA
Xavier Edwards
Xavier Edwards is a clean one-day stream. He’s batting .287 with a .761 OPS, hits second and faces struggling Grayson Rodriguez and his 7.2 xERA tonight. Stream him if you need a second baseman or another hitter near the top of the order tonight.
CLOSER WATCHOAK @ BOS
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).
HEAT CHECKLAA @ MIA
Jakob Marsee: .998 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jakob Marsee’s .998 OPS comes from a small sample and is too far above his baseline to treat as permanent. Still, over 0.5 total bases only requires one single, and I’m backing him to get it.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
PARK WEATHERCOL @ STL
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Busch Stadium tonight
The 10 mph wind blowing out at Busch Stadium and the hot air should reward balls lifted toward left. Nine runs are reachable without either offense needing an exceptional night.
P final total 11 vs 9 (over lean)
REGRESSIONCOL @ STL
Michael McGreevy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.62 xERA
Michael McGreevy’s 3.59 ERA is difficult to trust beside a 5.62 xERA and a contact profile filled with hard hits and barrels. Even Colorado has a credible path to making that regression show tonight.
P 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
COOLING OFFTOR @ PHI
Kyle Schwarber: .634 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Shane Bieber
Kyle Schwarber's .634 OPS over the last 15 days (39 PA) trails his .882 season mark, down 0.248. Tonight he draws RHP Shane Bieber — his weaker side: a .839 OPS vs RHP across 257 AB.
P 2-for-3, 8 TB, 3 BB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ PIT
Carson Benge: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 45 PA: a .986 OPS versus .742 for the season, 0.244 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCIN @ WSH
Jacob Young: 1.072 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jacob Young’s 1.072 OPS is probably a heater rather than a new baseline, but the prop only asks for one total base. I like over 0.5 because Cincinnati must hold him hitless to win the other side.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ PHI
Trea Turner
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.43 xERA) — .703 OPS, bats 2nd.
HEAT CHECKTOR @ PHI
Trea Turner: .877 OPS in Last 15 Days
Trea Turner’s .877 OPS over 60 plate appearances looks like believable improvement rather than a brief spike. Over 1.5 total bases is still a meaningful ask, but I lean over because the longer sample and power give the form substance.
P 0-for-6, 0 TB
TOMORROWTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.64 ERA vs 3.5 xERA
Jacob Lopez’s 5.64 ERA badly overstates the quality of his pitching, with a 3.50 expected mark and limited hard contact pointing toward poor fortune. Against Tampa Bay, I’m buying a cleaner result and the rebound.
HEAT CHECKOAK @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .957 OPS in Last 15 Days
Ceddanne Rafaela’s .957 OPS over the last 15 days is supported by a substantial sample and believable improvement from his season level. The power gives him the route needed to clear 1.5 total bases, so I’m on the over.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
CUT LISTSTL tonight
Michael McGreevy
Starts tonight for STL — 5.62 xERA behind a 3.59 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
TOMORROWTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.64 ERA vs 3.5 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TB. A 5.64 ERA against a 3.5 expected ERA (2.14 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .270 vs .211 expected.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
The leadoff spot and a place in tonight’s lineup are the only arguments for patience. A .125 average and .550 OPS are doing real damage, and opportunity alone isn’t enough to justify a season-long roster spot. Cut
STARTER FORMOAK @ BOS
J.T. Ginn: 5.94 ERA over his last 3 starts
J.T. Ginn’s 5.94 ERA over his last three starts has come without a major change in traffic, but his ability to escape important spots has deteriorated. Boston can hurt him without creating endless chances if it converts when innings turn.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
HEAT CHECKOAK @ BOS
Andruw Monasterio: .963 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .963 OPS spans the last 15 days (51 PA) against a .792 season baseline, a 0.171 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERCLE @ CHW
Wind blowing in 11 mph at Rate Field tonight
An 11 mph wind blowing in at Rate Field taxes right-field power and gives both pitching staffs more freedom to work upstairs. I expect CLE-CHW to be decided more by line drives, gap contact and sustained rallies than easy home-run carry.
P final total 8 vs 8.5 (under lean)
PLATOON EDGECIN @ WSH
Daylen Lile (bats L) hits 4th against Brady Singer (RHP)
Over 327 AB vs. Right, Daylen Lile owns a .759 OPS versus .593 in 119 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brady Singer tonight hitting 4th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGETOR @ PHI
Trea Turner (bats R) draws Shane Bieber (RHP), batting 2nd
Trea Turner carries a .746 OPS vs. Right (325 AB) against .611 the other way (149 AB), and faces RHP Shane Bieber from the 2nd spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-6, 0 TB
CUT LISTCHW tonight
Brenton Doyle
Batting first keeps Doyle relevant because the lineup spot creates opportunity. Still, a .214 average and .560 OPS leave too little production to protect him unless your alternatives are especially thin. Cut
TOMORROWCOL @ ARI
Gabriel Hughes: 4.25 ERA vs 2.4 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs ARI. A 4.25 ERA against a 2.4 expected ERA (1.85 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .241 vs .191 expected.
TOMORROWCOL @ ARI
Gabriel Hughes: 4.25 ERA vs 2.4 xERA
Gabriel Hughes has limited both hard contact and barrels, making his 2.40 expected ERA far more convincing than the 4.25 surface mark. Against Arizona, I expect his results to move toward the quality of his pitching.
REGRESSIONCOL @ STL
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .227 xBA
Mickey Moniak’s .277 average sits well above his .227 expected mark, pointing toward results that are due to cool. I see tonight as a sell-high spot despite the favorable handedness matchup.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMLAA @ MIA
Grayson Rodriguez: 5.06 ERA over his last 3 starts
Grayson Rodriguez’s 5.06 ERA over his last three starts is imperfect, but the underlying work is cleaner than his season mark. Better control of traffic and enough strikeouts to stop rallies give him a viable path through Miami’s lineup.
P 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
BULLPENCHC @ KC
Kansas City Royals pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kansas City’s bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings in three games, but several short relievers remain usable for a normal late-game script. The real danger is an early starter exit, which would give the Cubs access to the softer and less comfortable part of the pen.
BULLPENLAA @ MIA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 15 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSTOR @ PHI
Brandon Marsh
Pickup vs Shane Bieber (7.43 xERA) — .757 OPS, bats 7th.
CLOSER WATCHCLE @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Shared ninth in CHW: Grant Taylor 5 saves, Bryan Hudson 4. The role is live.
STARTER FORMTB @ SEA
Ian Seymour: 2.16 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ian Seymour has combined fewer baserunners with real swing-and-miss stuff, producing a 2.16 ERA over his last three starts. Seattle faces a pitcher controlling innings rather than merely surviving them.
P 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONDET @ SF
Troy Melton: 1.58 ERA vs 3.11 xERA
Troy Melton’s 1.58 ERA will rise toward his 3.11 xERA, but this is not an empty performance. He misses bats, limits traffic and suppresses damaging contact well enough to remain trustworthy against San Francisco.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONNYM @ PIT
Esmerlyn Valdez: .248 AVG vs .205 xBA
Valdez’s .248 average is running well ahead of the contact underneath it. I’m leaning away from his hit and total-base overs before the market catches up.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONHOU @ SD
Cristian Javier: 6.58 ERA vs 5.12 xERA
Cristian Javier’s 6.58 ERA has been harsher than his 5.12 xERA, so some correction is reasonable. The traffic remains too heavy for a full endorsement, though; I expect improvement from disastrous to merely shaky.
P 5 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
REGRESSIONOAK @ BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela: .288 AVG vs .248 xBA
Ceddanne Rafaela’s .288 average is running well ahead of his .248 xBA, and the size of the sample makes that gap tough to ignore. I’m leaning toward a quieter night rather than paying for the results he has recently produced.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
COOLING OFFOAK @ BOS
Anthony Seigler: .454 OPS in L15 — draws RHP J.T. Ginn
Anthony Seigler's .454 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .710 season mark, down 0.256. Tonight he draws RHP J.T. Ginn — his stronger side: a .779 OPS vs RHP across 94 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.601 OPS, 0.220 AVG from the 2-hole.
TOMORROWTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 5.37 ERA vs 3.92 xERA
Peralta’s 5.37 ERA looks much worse than the contact he has allowed, especially with such a low barrel rate. I expect a meaningful bounce-back against Oakland and would rather buy the 3.92 xERA than the surface results.
TOMORROWTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 5.37 ERA vs 3.92 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs OAK. A 5.37 ERA against a 3.92 expected ERA (1.45 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .273 vs .239 expected.
REGRESSIONLAD @ ARI
Justin Wrobleski: 3.31 ERA vs 4.51 xERA
Justin Wrobleski’s 3.31 ERA is receiving meaningful help from favorable contact outcomes, while his 4.51 xERA better reflects the risk. Arizona is well positioned to shrink that cushion tonight.
P 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
TOMORROWPHI @ STL
Andrew Painter: 6.48 ERA vs 5.12 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs STL. A 6.48 ERA against a 5.12 expected ERA (1.36 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .299 vs .271 expected.
TOMORROWBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 5.93 ERA vs 4.54 xERA
Kremer should improve on a 5.93 ERA because the contact profile has not been nearly that ugly. The 4.54 xERA still describes a middling arm, though, so I’m expecting fewer runs rather than dominance.
TOMORROWBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 5.93 ERA vs 4.54 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs BAL. A 5.93 ERA against a 4.54 expected ERA (1.39 run gap) — unlucky, due to bounce back. Opponents hit .263 vs .249 expected.
COOLING OFFOAK @ BOS
Willson Contreras: .751 OPS in L15 — draws RHP J.T. Ginn
Willson Contreras's .751 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .929 season mark, down 0.178. Tonight he draws RHP J.T. Ginn — his weaker side: a .916 OPS vs RHP across 269 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHTOR @ PHI
Jhoan Duran
Jhoan Duran owns the ninth for the Phillies — 25 saves this season (next closest: Caleb Kilian with 8).
FIRST INNINGATL @ NYY
NRFI watch: quiet first innings on both sides of ATL @ NYY
I lean NRFI in Atlanta-New York, with Grant Holmes the steadier opening-inning arm. Schlittler’s home-run vulnerability gives the Braves the main path to spoiling it with one swing.
P 1st inning: 0-0 (0 runs)
TOMORROWPHI @ STL
Andrew Painter: 6.48 ERA vs 5.12 xERA
Painter has taken more damage than his contact quality warrants, but the elevated barrel rate keeps this from being a pure bad-luck story. I expect some ERA relief against St. Louis without trusting him to completely shut the lineup down.
FANTASY PICKUPSDET @ SF
Troy Melton
Streamer vs SF — 3.11 xERA · 7.8 K/9 · 0.91 WHIP.
BALLPARKHOU @ SD
Randy Vasquez's ERA jumps to 4.91 at Petco Park
Vasquez’s 4.91 home ERA comes with a .299 average allowed, so I’m blaming the traffic more than Petco. Houston can pressure him with singles and walks, and his home split is vulnerable if he fails to settle in early.
P 5 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
The .216 average and .637 OPS make Perez a reasonable cut candidate, but batting fourth and remaining in tonight’s lineup give him a stronger case than the other two. I’m not bailing yet. Hold
HEAT CHECKCIN @ WSH
Matt McLain: .831 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 27 PA: a .831 OPS versus .641 for the season, 0.19 above his norm. He has 10 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
RUNNING GAMEMIN @ MIL
Green light: Milwaukee Brewers run, and Victor Caratini has caught just 13%
Milwaukee has the green light against Victor Caratini’s 13% caught-stealing rate. The Brewers can turn ordinary traffic into scoring position and manufacture runs without needing extra-base power.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 0 bases
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Tommy White
The case for cutting White is the .575 season OPS, which is a tough number to carry from a hitter batting fifth. The .266 average offers some resistance, and he is in tonight’s lineup. HOLD — the OPS puts him on notice, but I’m not cutting a lineup-active No. 5 hitter with a .266 average yet.
CLOSER WATCHLAA @ MIA
Samy Natera Jr. / Jose Fermin
Shared ninth in LAA: Samy Natera Jr. 2 saves, Jose Fermin 1. The role is live.
PARK WEATHERCIN @ WSH
92° at Nationals Park — the ball will carry tonight
Conditions at Nationals Park: Partly Cloudy, 92°, wind 3 mph, L To R. Heat like this turns warning-track outs into souvenirs. The total sits at 8.5.
P final total 8 vs 8.5 (over lean)
CLOSER WATCHCHC @ KC
Lucas Erceg / Alex Lange
Shared ninth in KC: Lucas Erceg 12 saves, Alex Lange 10. The role is live.
REGRESSIONDET @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
San Francisco’s 10-20 record in one-run games is more likely to move toward even than remain at a .333 win rate. The Giants may be stronger than their overall record suggests, but that regression case does not erase Detroit’s advantages tonight.
COOLING OFFCIN @ WSH
Jose Tena: .550 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Brady Singer
Jose Tena's .550 OPS over the last 15 days (25 PA) trails his .695 season mark, down 0.145. Tonight he draws RHP Brady Singer — his weaker side: a .665 OPS vs RHP across 194 AB.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Abimelec Ortiz
Still hitting 2nd for WSH — 0.671 OPS, 0.211 AVG from the 2-hole.
RUNNING GAMEATL @ NYY
Green light: New York Yankees run, and Drake Baldwin has caught just 16%
The Yankees should stay aggressive against Drake Baldwin’s 16% caught-stealing rate. Any New York runner can become an immediate scoring-position threat, giving the Yankees another way to manufacture offense against Atlanta.
P New York Yankees stole 0 bases
TOMORROWBOS @ TOR
Sonny Gray: 2.78 ERA vs 3.68 xERA
Sonny Gray’s 2.78 ERA against a 3.68 xERA is a modest, believable gap rather than a major warning. His contact management supports most of the performance, so I would not build tomorrow’s Boston-Toronto angle around sharp regression.
TOMORROWBOS @ TOR
Sonny Gray: 2.78 ERA vs 3.68 xERA
Projected to start tomorrow vs TOR. A 2.78 ERA against a 3.68 expected ERA (0.9 run gap) — running hot, due to regress. Opponents hit .238 vs .249 expected.
FIRST INNINGLAD @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Arizona has gone 10 straight games without a first-inning run, but neither starter makes the full inning especially comfortable. Los Angeles has the better chance to break through early against Eduardo Rodriguez; if it does not, the NRFI pattern should hold.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
TOMORROWCOL @ ARI
Michael Soroka: 3.07 ERA vs 3.98 xERA
Soroka’s low hard-hit rate supports much of his success, though favorable results on balls in play have helped the 3.07 ERA. Against Colorado tomorrow, I trust him while valuing the outcome closer to his 3.98 xERA.
FIRST INNINGMIN @ MIL
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Minnesota has failed to score in the first inning in 10 straight games, and Misiorowski is positioned to extend that silence. Milwaukee against Prielipp is the threat to an NRFI, giving the Brewers the clearer chance to seize immediate control.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/14
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/14 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/14
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/14 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMEOAK @ BOS
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%
Boston gets a clear running-game advantage against Jonah Heim’s 16% caught-stealing rate. I expect the Red Sox to use movement to turn singles and walks into scoring chances rather than waiting exclusively for power.
P Boston Red Sox stole 0 bases
RUNNING GAMETB @ SEA
Green light: Seattle Mariners run, and Liam Hicks has caught just 16%
Seattle gets the green light against Hicks and his 16% caught-stealing rate. Any walk or single can become immediate scoring pressure, giving the Mariners ways to create runs without relying on a home run.
P Seattle Mariners stole 0 bases
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Hector Rodriguez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.633 OPS, 0.200 AVG from the 6-hole.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
RUNNING GAMECHC @ KC
Kansas City Royals like to run — Miguel Amaya (32% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Kansas City likes to run, but Amaya’s 32% caught-stealing rate makes this a poor matchup for forcing the issue. I expect Chicago to limit that aggression and give itself a chance to erase a rally with one throw.
P Kansas City Royals stole 0 bases
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Jorbit Vivas
Still hitting 6th for WSH — 0.650 OPS, 0.233 AVG from the 6-hole.
CUT LISTWSH tonight
Dylan Crews
Still hitting 5th for WSH — 0.661 OPS, 0.218 AVG from the 5-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIN @ MIL
Connor Prielipp
Streamer vs MIL — 4.04 xERA · 9.4 K/9 · 1.31 WHIP.
FIRST INNINGHOU @ SD
HOU have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Houston’s first-inning drought meets a real escape hatch in Vasquez, whose opening frames have been vulnerable. The Astros have the stronger scoring chance in the first, and I lean toward them breaking through in the top half.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGLAA @ MIA
MIA have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Miami has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10 games, and Grayson Rodriguez has the swing-and-miss ability to continue that trend. Los Angeles owns the clearer early scoring route against Ryan Gusto, making the Angels the likelier side to strike first.
P flagged team scored 3 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.
FIRST INNINGNYM @ PIT
NYM have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
The Mets have scored in the first inning only once in their last 10 games, and Jones is well placed to keep them quiet again. Pittsburgh against Manaea is the real threat to the NRFI.
P flagged team scored 2 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGBAL @ TEX
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Texas has scored in the first inning only once in its last 10 games, so Baltimore is the side that decides this early market. Rocker’s opening-inning trouble gives the Orioles a legitimate chance to take control before the Rangers’ bats settle in.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st

Graded results

Games

W
Nationals ML -105
MLB · 1-7
L
Yankees ML -141
MLB · 2-1
W
Athletics +1.5 -102
MLB · 4-3
L
Pirates ML -140
MLB · 11-1
W
Marlins ML -140
MLB · 3-12
W
Cubs ML -158
MLB · 10-2
L
Phillies -1.5 -112
MLB · 6-7
W
Cardinals ML -158
MLB · 4-7
L
Brewers -1.5 -124
MLB · 3-4
W
Orioles ML +116
MLB · 10-5
L
Dodgers ML -129
MLB · 2-4
W
Tigers ML -123
MLB · 3-1
W
Rays ML -104
MLB · 4-1
L
Guardians ML -125
MLB · 3-5
L
Astros ML +103
MLB · 2-7

Props

W
Alec Burleson · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 4
W
Alec Burleson · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 1
W
Alex Bregman · over
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 3
L
Ben Rortvedt · under
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
W
Brad Lord · under
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Brady Singer · over
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 3
W
Brice Turang · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Brooks Lee · under
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 2
W
Bryson Stott · over
Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 4
W
Cam Schlittler · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 11
L
Carlos Narvaez · under
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 1
L
Christian Koss · under
Tigers @ Giants · Actual 1
L
Corey Seager · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 0
W
Davis Martin · under
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Daylen Lile · over
Reds @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Esmerlyn Valdez · over
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Astros @ Padres · Actual 6
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Astros @ Padres · Actual 1
W
Gabriel Moreno · over
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 3
W
Grayson Rodriguez · under
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 12
W
Griffin Conine · over
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 2
W
Gunnar Henderson · over
Orioles @ Rangers · Actual 1
W
Hunter Goodman · over
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 1
W
Ian Seymour · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 7
W
Jackson Chourio · over
Twins @ Brewers · Actual 1
L
Jared Jones · under
Mets @ Pirates · Actual 6
W
Jesus Luzardo · over
Blue Jays @ Phillies · Actual 12
W
Jim Jarvis · under
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Joey Cantillo · under
Guardians @ White Sox · Actual 3
L
Jonathan Aranda · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 1
W
J.T. Ginn · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 18
L
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 0
W
Kyle Stowers · over
Angels @ Marlins · Actual 4
L
Kyle Tucker · over
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Matthew Boyd · under
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 3
W
Matt Olson · over
Braves @ Yankees · Actual 1
W
Michael Lorenzen · under
Rockies @ Cardinals · Actual 13
L
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Royals · Actual 0
L
Rafael Devers · over
Tigers @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Randy Vasquez · under
Astros @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Taylor Trammell · over
Astros @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Teoscar Hernandez · over
Dodgers @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
W
Troy Melton · under
Tigers @ Giants · Actual 4
L
Tyler Soderstrom · over
Athletics @ Red Sox · Actual 0
L
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Rays @ Mariners · Actual 0