Mets at Pirates
O/U 8 · RL Pirates -1.5
Pirates ML-140
CONF 58%
LLostFinal 11-1
The read
It’s the deciding game at PNC Park, with a Sunday afternoon start and a light wind blowing toward center field. Pittsburgh bounced back from Friday’s loss with a shutout win Saturday, and I’m backing the Pirates to finish the series.
Jared Jones has been sharper, mixing a blazing fastball with a slider that gets plenty of empty swings. Sean Manaea has looked steadier lately, but right-handed hitters have had success against him, and Pittsburgh can take advantage throughout the lineup. Carson Benge being out with a wrist issue also takes the Mets’ hottest bat away.
The Pirates have the better group of relief pitchers, with several strong late-game choices ready after they weren’t overworked Saturday. That advantage matters if the starting pitchers keep things close, and Pittsburgh has the better chance to pull away against Manaea. I’m betting the Pirates to win.
The full analysis
Rubber match at PNC Park, with first pitch under the Sunday sun and the wind lightly carrying toward center. Pittsburgh answered Friday’s loss with a 9-0 win Saturday, and I’m backing the Pirates to finish the series.
Jared Jones owns the sharper underlying profile, pairing a 98.4 mph fastball with a slider that generates a 38.6% whiff rate. Sean Manaea has settled in lately, but right-handed hitters have posted an .833 OPS against him, and Pittsburgh can attack that weakness throughout the order. Carson Benge’s wrist-related absence also removes the Mets’ hottest bat.
The Pirates have the better bullpen, with a 3.15 ERA and several late-inning options available after a manageable workload Saturday. That relief edge matters if the starters keep this close, and Pittsburgh’s lineup has the cleaner path to creating separation against Manaea. The card: Pirates moneyline at -140.
Props on this game
2Jared JonesUNDER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-125
LActual 6
I’m backing Jones to hold the Mets to four hits or fewer. He has stayed under this number in seven of his last eight starts, and his 3.32 xERA and .284 expected wOBA support the results. The combination of a 98.4 mph fastball and high-whiff slider limits clean contact, while Carson Benge’s wrist scratch removes New York’s hottest bat. Jones also hasn't consistently worked deep, which reduces the number of chances the Mets get against him.
Esmerlyn ValdezOVER 0.5 Walks Walks+114
Not yet graded
I want plus money on Valdez drawing a walk after he has done it in 10 of his last 15 games. Manaea has issued nine walks across his last three starts and has gone over 1.5 walks in six of his last eight. Valdez’s power gives Manaea a reason to work carefully, particularly with the left-hander carrying an .833 OPS allowed to right-handed bats.
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