Rockies at Cardinals
O/U 9.5 · RL Cardinals -1.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Cardinals ML -158
- Published odds
- -158
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 4-7
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium, the deciding game is there for the taking. I’m backing St. Louis to finish the series with a win.
Michael Lorenzen is the matchup I want to attack. He has been giving up far too many runs and allowing far too many hitters to reach base. He has been hit especially hard in his last few starts and has struggled against left-handed hitters. That gives Alec Burleson and the Cardinals’ other left-handed bats a good chance to do damage early, while Colorado’s shaky relief pitchers may not offer much help after Lorenzen leaves.
Michael McGreevy has some warning signs of his own, so I’m not counting on St. Louis to win by a certain margin against a Rockies offense that has been hitting well. Still, he throws strikes, has pitched well at Busch Stadium, and St. Louis has a clear advantage with its relief pitchers. The price is not cheap, but I’m taking the Cardinals to win.
The full analysis
Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium, with the rubber game sitting there for the taking. I’m backing St. Louis to finish the series with a win.
Michael McGreevy has some troubling underlying numbers of his own, so I’m avoiding the run line against a Rockies offense that has been swinging it well. Still, his command, his 3.28 ERA at Busch and St. Louis’ substantial bullpen advantage make the Cardinals the more trustworthy side. The price isn’t cheap, but Cardinals moneyline at -158 is the play.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
STARTER FORM
Michael McGreevy: 9.49 ERA over his last 3 starts
9.49Michael McGreevy’s 9.49 ERA across his last three starts reflects a pitcher who is no longer containing traffic or avoiding crooked innings. Colorado should apply pressure from the first trip through the order.
PLATOON EDGE
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Michael Lorenzen (RHP)
.960Alec Burleson gets Michael Lorenzen from his preferred side and bats third. That is a premium setup for him to drive in runs if St. Louis creates early traffic.
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
.948Mickey Moniak gets Michael McGreevy from his stronger side and bats fifth. The matchup and lineup depth give him a good chance to extend or finish an inning.
HEAT CHECK
Willi Castro: 1.084 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.084Willi Castro’s 1.084 OPS is real form, but it sits well above his established level in a modest sample. At a 1.5-total-base line, I prefer the under.
COOLING OFF
Hunter Goodman: .538 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael McGreevy
.538Hunter Goodman is cold, but Michael McGreevy gives him a reasonable rebound matchup. Goodman has still handled right-handed pitching well enough that I’m not selling him solely on the last 15 days.
PARK WEATHER
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Busch Stadium tonight
OUT 10The 10 mph wind blowing out at Busch Stadium and the hot air should reward balls lifted toward left. Nine runs are reachable without either offense needing an exceptional night.
REGRESSION
Michael McGreevy: 3.59 ERA vs 5.62 xERA
5.62Michael McGreevy’s 3.59 ERA is difficult to trust beside a 5.62 xERA and a contact profile filled with hard hits and barrels. Even Colorado has a credible path to making that regression show tonight.
Mickey Moniak: .277 AVG vs .227 xBA
.227Mickey Moniak’s .277 average sits well above his .227 expected mark, pointing toward results that are due to cool. I see tonight as a sell-high spot despite the favorable handedness matchup.
CUT LIST
Michael McGreevy
5.62 xERAStarts tonight for STL — 5.62 xERA behind a 3.59 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored August 9, 2026 at 10:47 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL LORENZENPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5
Lorenzen has completed more than five innings only once in his last six starts, and his last three have lasted just 10.2 innings combined. A 1.85 WHIP creates constant traffic and elevated pitch counts, while this Cardinals lineup can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher allowing a 1.030 OPS to lefties. I’m betting he is gone before recording an out in the sixth.
- GARY'S PICKALEC BURLESONTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
Burleson gets the strongest individual matchup in the Cardinals order. Lorenzen has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .355 with a 1.030 OPS, and his primary sinker and cutter have both been punished. Burleson is producing authoritative contact, owns a .533 expected slugging percentage and has three home runs over his last seven games. Batting third against Lorenzen and a vulnerable Colorado bullpen gives him multiple paths to two bases.
- THE LONG SHOTALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5
This is the clearest power matchup on the board. Michael Lorenzen has allowed a 1.030 OPS and 12 home runs to left-handed hitters, while Burleson has three homers and three barrels over his last seven games. With 90-degree heat and a 10 mph wind blowing toward left, I’ll take Burleson to leave the yard at +350.
- THE LONG SHOTHUNTER GOODMANHR OVER 0.5
Goodman is cold, but +850 is enough to buy the underlying power in favorable hitting weather. Michael McGreevy has allowed a 10.4% barrel rate, owns a 5.62 xERA beneath his much cleaner surface ERA and has surrendered six homers to right-handed hitters in only 165 at-bats. Goodman only needs to catch one, and this price makes that swing worth taking.
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