Daily archive

2026-08-10

The stored Gary board for Mon, Aug 10. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB7:07 PM

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Monday night in Toronto with the roof closed, room temperature and no wind — the kind of setting where nothing gets covered up. Boston shows up off two straight losses to the Athletics that ended a nine-game run, and the easy read is that they're cooling off. That's not what tonight is about. Tonight is about the guy Toronto is handing the ball to. Jameson Taillon is getting hit hard, and the deeper numbers say it's no fluke — he's giving up loud contact, not bad luck. Hitters are crushing his pitches at a high rate, and his cutter has turned into something batters can tee off on, with his fastball not much better. Lefties have hammered him all year, and Boston runs Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran right at that problem, with switch-hitters bookending the lineup. Abreu especially is barreling everything up lately, with three home runs in the last week. Taillon hasn't gotten through five innings in any of his last three starts and has been charged with a pile of runs in that short stretch. This is only his second start with a new team, still building back from a long time off, so Toronto is going to need its bullpen early — and that bullpen just lost Lazaro Estrada and had three arms working on back-to-back days over the weekend. Sonny Gray got roughed up by this same lineup in late July and hasn't been sharp in his last three either, so I'm not calling him untouchable. But his sweeper is the best single pitch anyone's throwing tonight — hitters swing through it almost half the time — and the team he's facing is slumping everywhere you look. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer have both been ice cold this week, Nathan Lukes and Brett Bateman aren't hitting either, and there's a rookie catcher and a just-called-up infielder filling out the bottom of the order. Boston has been putting up big run totals over their last ten and they're the better team in every area tonight. Paying a bit of a premium for the better pitcher and the hotter bats against an arm this vulnerable is the play. Red Sox.

Red Sox ML-154

CONF

63%

MLB7:15 PM

Mets @ Braves

It's a hot, sticky Monday night in Atlanta, the kind where the air just sits on the field, and the Braves are back home after a trip to the Bronx that snapped a winning streak but didn't do much other damage. The Mets come in well under .500, playing loose the way a team does once the standings stopped mattering, and they've been rolling on this road trip. First pitch at Truist Park, Bryce Elder against Christian Scott. Here's what I keep coming back to: this one gets decided after the starters walk off, and only one side has an answer. Scott has the better arm tonight — big fastball, a breaking ball hitters swing right through — but he's been eased back slowly and has barely gotten past the fifth all summer. That hands the late innings to a New York bullpen that just lost Devin Williams to a shoulder problem, sent Curry back to the minors, and is filling the middle with a guy who was in Triple-A a few days ago. Atlanta goes to Lee, Dodd, Iglesias and Kinley, and none of them have been worked hard enough lately to be worn down tonight. Elder is the weaker of the two starters — he isn't missing bats the way he needs to, and when he gets hit, it goes a long way — but the Mets lineup is loaded with lefties in Ewing, Benge, Young and Baty, and that's the side of the matchup he's handled all year. The rest is roster. Olson is scorching, hammering the ball and piling up home runs the last couple weeks, Acuña is doing damage again, Riley and Harris are driving in runs. New York has been loud, sure, but that was against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and this is deep into a long road trip against a team that actually catches the ball — Atlanta's glovework is clearly cleaner, and that shows up over nine innings. I passed on laying the run and a half for the bigger payout because Atlanta's wins have been tight, one-run kind of nights, and I don't need a cushion. I need the last at-bat and the better arms late, and the home team has both. **Braves to win.**

Braves ML-140

CONF

63%

MLB7:40 PM

Orioles @ Twins

Monday night in Minnesota, and last week's trade still hangs over the whole thing. Dean Kremer pitches for the Twins against the team that raised him and shipped him out seven days ago, and everybody in that other dugout has seen every pitch he throws. Both clubs are hovering right around .500, both chasing the same last playoff spot, and the price says it's a coin flip. When the market can't separate two teams, my job is to figure out if it should. I think it should. Trevor Rogers has been a lot better than his season line looks — one ugly month in May wrecked it, and since then he's been sharp two months running. Over his last three starts he's gone deep into games, piled up strikeouts, and hasn't walked a single hitter. The underlying stuff says that's real, not luck. Kremer's going the other way, and it's not subtle: he's given up a run an inning over his last three turns, and hitters have almost stopped swinging through him — his miss rate has fallen by more than half over five starts. He's had real trouble with lefty bats all year, and Baltimore runs out a stack of them, plus a guy who hits from both sides. That's a bad lineup to see when your best pitch isn't fooling anyone. And those Baltimore bats finally woke up Sunday in Texas — a two-hit day, two balls over the fence, a three-hit game — after a month of the whole team scratching for runs. The other side is real and I'll say it out loud. Minnesota is home, they've stacked their lineup with right-handed hitters against a lefty who has been taken deep plenty by that side this year, Royce Lewis has been locked in at this ballpark for two weeks, and Josh Bell looks like he's figured something out. Baltimore's bullpen is the weaker of the two, and a couple of their arms got hit this week. But the Twins have played six games in seven days and used the same relievers back-to-back nights, and I'll take the starter I trust at a price that calls this even. Give me Baltimore straight up. If the pitching matchup is what I think it is, this game never should have been priced even in the first place.

Orioles ML-103

CONF

63%

MLB7:45 PM

Phillies @ Cardinals

It's ninety-six degrees in St. Louis tonight with the wind blowing straight out to center, and Philadelphia is walking into it after grinding out an extra-inning win yesterday afternoon and then getting on a plane. First pitch at Busch is a quarter to eight, series opener, both teams having split their last ten games but in very different moods — the Phillies are chasing a playoff spot, the Cardinals are a few games back with their whole season hanging on it. This is the kind of Monday night where the travel schedule matters as much as the pitching. Now look at who Philadelphia is actually putting on the field. Trea Turner's out. Alec Bohm's out. Realmuto's resting, so Garrett Stubbs is catching, and Stubbs hasn't gotten a hit in his last ten times up. What's left is a lineup stacked with lefty bats going against Hunter Dobbins, who quietly shuts left-handed hitters down — almost all the damage against him comes from righties, and there are hardly any righties in this lineup. Dobbins has barely given up any runs across his last three-plus starts and has stretched out to six-plus innings each of the last two times out. That's a pitcher who's rolling, walking into a matchup built for him. The other side is where this really tips. Andrew Painter throws his four-seamer a third of the time and hitters absolutely tee off on it — the splitter fools people, everything else gets hit hard, and he's barely getting through four innings a start. That dumps the middle of this game on a Philadelphia bullpen that's already thrown a mountain of innings in three days, lost Caleb Kilian to the injured list this morning, and has had Raley, Kerkering and Duran pitching on back-to-back nights. Kerkering already coughed up three runs yesterday. St. Louis, meanwhile, is home, comparatively rested, running out a full lineup with Herrera and Burleson both swinging it well, and has a bullpen that's worked about half as much. Getting paid better than even money on the fresher team in a spot that fits their starter is the whole bet. Cardinals to win outright.

Cardinals ML+108

CONF

66%

MLB9:38 PM

Rangers @ Angels

The Rangers are the play here, and it starts with a warm night in Anaheim where the wind is blowing out. Texas rolls in off a quick turnaround from home with their season still alive — right around break-even, a division nobody has taken control of, and a playoff spot just sitting there for anyone willing to grab it. The Angels come home from Miami after getting buried in back-to-back games. Same first pitch, two very different Augusts. The bet is really on the Angels not scoring. They've barely been putting anything on the board over the last couple of weeks, and the trouble starts at the very top of their lineup — the first, second, and fourth hitters have all been close to invisible over the past week. Tonight they send out a lineup full of right-handed hitters against MacKenzie Gore, who has handled righties well all year. I know these two teams met in Texas in July and Gore got hit hard. But four of the guys who did that damage were traded away at the deadline — Adell, Soler, O'Hoppe and Soriano are all gone. That night belongs to a team that doesn't exist anymore. What does exist is a version of Gore who has given up almost nothing over his last three starts, including a scoreless outing his last time out, with an extra week of rest in his pocket. Reid Detmers is why this game is priced like a coin flip, and I get it — he's missing bats, he's not walking people, and his slider is a real weapon. But he's throwing softer than he was a year ago, he's been giving up home runs at an alarming clip lately, and the ball is going to fly tonight. He'll give you five innings. That hands the last four to a bullpen that just got torched over a three-day stretch and lost another arm to the injured list this morning. Texas counters with one of the steadier bullpens in the league and a defense that has been far cleaner in the field. This game gets decided late, and I want the team that still has arms to throw. Rangers to win straight up at a basically even price — a coin-flip number on the club that actually has something to play for.

Rangers ML-106

CONF

62%

MLB9:40 PM

Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Roof closed, seventy-two degrees, and a Monday night in the desert nobody had circled. Arizona just spent a weekend beating the Dodgers and won the season series against them for the first time in years — packed house all weekend, a walk-off homer, one absolute gem from Eduardo Rodriguez. Now the Rockies stroll in, one of the worst records in baseball, with a rookie starting. The market wants you to think this is a formality. I'll take Colorado and the run and a half. Here's what I keep coming back to: Michael Soroka hasn't thrown a big-league inning since the middle of June. He's off the injured list tonight, built up on one rehab outing where he barely cleared fifty pitches, and nobody in that dugout is letting him see a sixth inning. So Torey Lovullo needs four full innings from a bullpen that just used up all its good arms. Their top three relievers all worked Saturday and Sunday, another went Friday, and Jonathan Loáisiga chewed through a long outing Sunday. That group has been genuinely good all year, but you can't ride the same arm three days running. Ask a gassed pen to hold a two-run lead and you're asking for the one thing it can't promise. And Arizona has to actually score to get there. This is a lineup that's been quiet, right around four and a half runs a game over the last ten, and four of their top six hitters — Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Arenado — are all buried in slumps at the same time. Gabriel Hughes is better than his ugly-looking earned run average suggests: the underlying stuff says he's been much sharper than that, hitters aren't squaring him up, he's given up exactly one homer on the season, and he's gone at least five innings in every start of his career. Soroka's underlying numbers run the other direction, and lefties in particular have hammered him — Colorado sends six left-handed bats through this order, with Jake McCarthy swinging one of the hottest ones in the league this week. These two have met ten times this year and six went down to the final run. Take the number.

Rockies +1.5-114

CONF

62%

MLB9:40 PM

Brewers @ Padres

Late night at Petco, that cool ocean air drifting in off the bay, and the team with the best record in baseball walks into a ballpark that's been quietly eating home runs all season. Milwaukee flies out west after a walk-off win Sunday. San Diego's stars are playing their best baseball of the year. On paper it looks like a coin flip between a juggernaut and a wild card club that's rolling. It isn't. This one comes down to the two guys on the mound. Logan Henderson is the reason I'm here. He's been much better than his surface numbers, hitters have barely done anything against him, and his changeup makes them swing through air about four times out of every ten cuts. His swing-and-miss rate has climbed in each of his last three starts, which tells me the stuff is sharpening, not fading. He won't go deep — five innings is his ceiling right now, and Pat Murphy has made it clear he wants Henderson emptying the tank rather than pacing himself. That's fine, because the ball goes to a bullpen that has been nearly untouchable over the last week, with closer Trevor Megill barely breaking a sweat the last two days. Rested closer behind a starter who misses bats. Casey Mize is the other half of it, and the news there is not good. Every single pitch he throws is slower than it was last season — the fastball, the sinker, the slider, the splitter. His swing-and-miss numbers have fallen off a cliff the last two times out, and he's been hit hard across his last three starts, with the worst of it coming in a Padres debut he himself called embarrassing. Right-handed hitters have hammered him all year, and Jackson Chourio is squaring up everything he sees right now, hitting the ball as hard as anyone. Mize's splitter is a real problem for the five lefties Milwaukee runs out there, and San Diego's bats are genuinely dangerous at the moment, so I'm not pretending this is a lock. But at a price barely worse than a coin flip, I'll take the better starter, the better bullpen, and the ballpark that suppresses runs. Give me the Brewers to win.

Brewers ML-121

CONF

60%

MLB9:40 PM

Rays @ Athletics

Late night in West Sacramento, hot as anything with the wind blowing out toward center field, and these two teams are heading in completely opposite directions. Tampa Bay came out west and knocked off everybody in front of them — Colorado, then Seattle, three straight wins that all came down to the last swing, and the relief pitchers shut the door every single time. Oakland finally caught a break in Boston after losing nine in a row, won two out of three, and flew home feeling like a real ballclub again. One of these hot streaks is about to end. Both starting pitchers tonight are better than their recent results and worse than the hype. Peralta's been hammered his last three times out, giving up runs by the truckload, and lefty hitters keep taking him deep — which is exactly the kind of lineup Sacramento is rolling out. Lopez has looked genuinely good since coming off the shelf, piling up strikeouts and barely giving up anything, but righties have hit him hard all season and Kevin Cash loaded up the lineup card with them: Díaz, Caminero, Vilade, DeLuca, Fortes, Williams. Neither starter is getting through the middle innings. That's the whole story. This game gets decided by the parade of relievers that follows, and that's not close — Tampa's bullpen has been nearly untouchable with Baker converting save after save without a blemish, while Sacramento's has been bleeding runs all week and their best arm has already worked back-to-back days. Then there's the piece nobody accounts for: Tampa runs wild, and Sacramento can't do anything about it. Simpson is red hot and swiping bases whenever he wants, and the Rays put the squeeze on every inning they get somebody on base — that's how you win a bunch of one-run and two-run games on the road three nights in a row. It's also why I'm staying away from laying the extra runs. This team wins close, not clean. The risk is real and it shows up early: if Peralta coughs up a handful of runs in the first few innings in a hot ballpark, this whole thing flips. But I'll pay up for the better team, the better bullpen, and the club that finds ways to score when the bats go cold. **The Pick: Rays ML -158**

Rays ML-158

CONF

63%

MLB9:45 PM

Astros @ Giants

Cool night by the bay, first pitch just before ten out east, and the fog is already rolling over the cove at Oracle. Houston comes in off a rough weekend in San Diego — three balls left the yard against Javier in one night. San Francisco is limping too, losers of seven of their last nine and further under .500 than they've been all season. Two teams that just got their teeth kicked in. Only one of them has the roster to do something about it tonight. The Giants can't score. They're barely scratching across three runs a night lately, and that's not a slump so much as a subtraction problem — they traded Arraez and Ramos away, and behind Jung Hoo Lee and Rafael Devers there isn't much left. Eldridge has been cold for two weeks, McCray has one hit in his last dozen at-bats or so with the weakest contact in the lineup, and Koss is scuffling too. Six of the nine hitters swing from the left side, and Wesneski has been suffocating lefties all year without giving up a single home run to them. The deeper numbers say he's been living dangerously, and maybe he has, but he's doing it against the wrong lineup and inside a park that swallows fly balls for a living. He's also handled this club well in his handful of career starts against them, and I like where he's standing. The other side of it is the fastball. Tidwell throws hard, but nobody has missed it — not one swing-and-miss on well over a hundred of them, and hitters have been crushing it when it catches the strike zone. He gets his outs with the breaking stuff; the heater is batting practice with speed on it. Houston sends six right-handed bats at him, with Altuve red-hot this past week, Cam Smith even hotter with two homers, and Walker hammering the ball as hard as anyone. Both starters are on short leashes — Wesneski is just two starts back from elbow surgery, Tidwell has barely any innings on him this year — so this lands in the bullpens' hands by the sixth, and that's the whole ballgame. Houston's relievers have barely been scored on all week with Hader, Abreu, and King all rested. San Francisco's have been leaking runs, and two of their arms have already worked back-to-back days. Oracle keeps games tight and low-scoring, which is why I'm not laying the run and a half. Astros to win straight up. They only need four.

Astros ML-140

CONF

64%

MLB10:10 PM

Royals @ Dodgers

Ten at night at Dodger Stadium, cool air rolling in, and the best lefty in the game is making his first start on his new mound. Everyone in that building came to watch Tarik Skubal beat up on a team that's been losing all year. That's exactly why I'm taking the other side. Think about what laying a run and a half at that price is really asking. You're paying a premium for a team to win by two or more, and even the true juggernauts — the ones you'd have to lay a fortune on — only manage that about half the time. Baseball doesn't care that one roster costs a fortune and the other is playing out the string. Games come down to one run. And the team being asked to blow this open has barely scored over the last week and a half: Betts hasn't gone deep in over two weeks, Muncy and Edman are barely getting hits, Freeman hasn't cleared a fence in two weeks either, and Tucker — who tripled and homered in the last two games — isn't even in the lineup tonight. You don't win by a run and a half with Ohtani and Andy Pages doing all the lifting. Noah Cameron gets treated like an afterthought and he shouldn't be. He's given up almost nothing over sixteen innings this month, and lefty bats haven't given him trouble — which matters with four of them in the Los Angeles lineup. Skubal will do his damage for six innings, maybe a bit more, and Roberts has said flat out he's handling him carefully. Then the door swings open on a bullpen that lost Treinen to injury, released Jonathan Hernandez today, sent Hurt to the minors, and gives the ninth to an Edwin Diaz who's blown two saves in three days. Kansas City's own relievers are how this ticket goes up in smoke — Erceg and Lange can turn a one-run deficit into four fast, and I know it. But I'm not asking the Royals to win. I'm asking them to lose close, and I'm getting paid extra to ask. **Royals +1.5 (+108)**

Royals +1.5+108

CONF

64%

Player props

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Jameson Taillon

Taillon has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts — three against Houston, seven against Pittsburgh, four against Detroit — carrying a 10.22 ERA over that stretch. His expected ERA for the season, 6.07, sits right alongside his actual 5.96, which means the results aren't unlucky, they're earned.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-125

MLB HR · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Wilyer Abreu

Nobody in this lineup is seeing the ball better than Wilyer Abreu right now. Three homers and nine RBI in his last seven games, a .438 average, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles an hour with five barrels on twenty balls in play — a twenty-five percent barrel rate, which is real contact quality, not an average propped up by bloopers. He's doing it while chasing only about a quarter of pitches outside the zone, so this isn't undisciplined hacking either.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+308

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Caleb Durbin

Durbin is hitting .367 over his last fifteen games and .381 over his last seven, with nine RBI in that week alone. He's got a hit in eleven of his last fifteen games, and he's doing it against a pitcher allowing a .371 expected weighted on-base average who's given up at least five hits in five of his last six outings. This isn't a power bat forcing the issue — 84 mph average exit velocity, one barrel on twenty-two balls in play — it's a contact hitter squaring the ball up consistently and putting it in play against a rotation arm who can't keep hitters off it. Minus-two hundred is a real number to lay, but with him getting a hit in roughly three of every four games right now, it's still the right side.

OVER 0.5 Hits-200

MLB · Mets @ Braves

Christian Scott

Christian Scott has already seen this Braves lineup twice this year, and both times the strikeout total cleared tonight's number with room to spare — seven in four innings back on July 3rd, seven again in six innings on the 29th. The stuff that did it hasn't gone anywhere. His fastball still sits at 95 with a 28.6 percent whiff rate, the sweeper next to it gets swung through nearly a third of the time, and his swinging-strike rate hasn't had an off night in five starts running — 23, 30, 28, 25, 27 percent, one after another. He's sitting on over eleven strikeouts per nine for the season, and he doesn't need length to get there. His shortest outing of the stretch, three and two-thirds innings against Milwaukee, still got him to six strikeouts, and the next one after that, four innings against this same Braves lineup, got him to seven. Riley is swinging through four of every ten cuts he's taking right now, and Jarvis is chasing outside the zone on almost half his swings. Even with this lineup running hot on the scoreboard, there are holes in it that Scott's stuff was built to find.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-112

MLB · Mets @ Braves

Bryce Elder

Bryce Elder's last start looked great on the scoreboard — one hit in seven innings against Miami — but look at how he got there: a 10 percent swinging-strike rate, the lowest of the stretch, and the start before that wasn't much better at 16. Back-to-back outings where he wasn't missing bats, he was getting outs on quiet contact and the ball finding gloves. His two best swing-and-miss pitches, a slider and a cutter, get thrown a combined 40 percent of the time; the pitch he leans on most, a sinker at 28 percent usage, gets swung through under one time in ten. That's not an arsenal built around missing bats, and lately hitters have been finding more of the ball than his earned run average lets on, with a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate allowed to go with it. He's come in under this number in six of his last eight starts. New York's order doesn't chase much from this staff either — Semien under 15 percent, Ewing and Young both right around 20 — and a pitcher who already isn't missing bats has even less margin against hitters who make him throw it in the zone.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-120

MLB · Orioles @ Twins

Trevor Rogers

Rogers has punched out twenty-one hitters across his last three starts without issuing a single walk — a pace that alone clears this number in two of those three outings. His whiff rate has settled into the high-20s the last few turns, up from the low-20s back in early July, and he's gone over four and a half strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. Minnesota doesn't have a single true left-handed bat in tonight's order — Bell, Lee and Caratini all switch-hit, everyone else bats right — and his strikeout stuff has traveled with him against both sides all summer. The recent form says this is the version of Rogers still on the mound tonight.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts-130

MLB · Orioles @ Twins

Dean Kremer

Kremer's swing-and-miss rate has fallen off a cliff start to start over his last five turns — thirty-one percent down to twenty-nine, twenty-five, nineteen, and twelve in his last outing. That's not noise, that's a pitcher whose stuff hitters have stopped chasing, and it's showing up in the results: fifteen earned runs across his last fifteen innings. He's gone under this number in six of his last eight starts, and tonight he's doing it in his first look at the lineup that knows him best, the one that developed him and watched every one of these pitches from the dugout before the trade. When swing-and-miss disappears this fast, the strikeouts go with it.

UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts-143

MLB HR · Orioles @ Twins

Tyler O'Neill

O'Neill has three home runs in his last fourteen at-bats. Five for fourteen with three leaving the yard and an OPS over 1.500 across his last week — numbers that don't need rounding to sound absurd.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB · Phillies @ Cardinals

Hunter Dobbins

Eight starts this season, eight times clearing three and a half strikeouts. That's not a hot stretch, that's just what happens when Dobbins takes the mound, and nothing about tonight's matchup argues against it continuing.

OVER 3.5 Strikeouts+100

MLB · Phillies @ Cardinals

Bryson Stott

Stott is hitting .405 with a 1.228 OPS over his last 15 games, as hot as anyone in either lineup, and he's batting second tonight, sandwiched between Schwarber and Harper in a spot that guarantees him looks all night. This one just needs any two of a hit, a run, or an RBI — a hitter running this hot in this kind of lineup spot, against a starter who's had trouble finishing innings clean, clears that bar more often than not. He's done it in eleven of his last 15 games already, before even accounting for how much better he's swinging it the last two weeks. I don't mind laying the price.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-127

MLB HR · Mets @ Braves

Matt Olson

Olson has been the best hitter in either dugout the last two weeks, and it isn't close. Seven home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, and the way he's squaring up the baseball backs it up — an average exit velocity near 93, with six barrels on eighteen balls in play. A third of everything he's put in play lately has been struck about as well as a ball can be struck. That isn't a hot bounce or a few lucky landing spots, that's a hitter locked in.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+290

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Alec Burleson

Four home runs in his last seven games. That's not a hot streak, that's a different hitter than the one carrying a modest power line for most of the year — and the contact backs it up, 95.9 mph average exit velocity in that stretch with four barrels out of just seventeen balls in play. That's a guy squaring the ball up close to a quarter of the time he makes contact right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+503

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera is the hottest bat in this lineup right now — a 1.044 OPS over his last seven games, ten hits in twenty-six at-bats, and the underlying contact matches the results: 95.1 mph average exit velocity with sixteen hard-hit balls in his last look. That's not an empty average, he's driving the baseball.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+630

MLB HR · Mets @ Braves

Carson Benge

Benge is the best version of a hitter I can ask for right now — not just hot, but hot for reasons that hold up once you look at how he's getting there. A .409 average over his last week climbs to a 1.007 OPS across his last fifteen games, and the plate discipline backs it up: a whiff rate around seventeen percent and a chase rate around twenty-five, both among the best marks in this lineup. The quality of contact underneath those results is if anything a shade better than the numbers themselves, which tells me this isn't a hitter who's due to cool off.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Reid Detmers

Detmers has allowed four hits or fewer in each of his last three starts, and he's finished under four and a half in five of his last eight outings this season. His slider is missing bats at a 36 percent clip with a .191 expected weighted on-base against — that's the weapon keeping his hit totals down even in starts where the scoreboard looks rough. The damage he's taken this year has come mostly in the form of the long ball rather than a string of singles and doubles — his last start against Baltimore is the pattern exactly: four hits allowed, two of them left the yard. I like the under here even near even money, because the profile supports it independent of how many runs actually cross the plate.

UNDER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-105

MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Wyatt Langford

Langford is 2-for-his-last-18 with a .500 OPS over the last week, and the contact quality has faded right along with the results — average exit velocity down to 85.9 miles an hour with zero barrels on fifteen balls in play, and he's chasing and whiffing more than he was when he was right. He's a right-handed bat, and right-handers have hit just .216 against Detmers this season. None of that points toward a bounce-back night at the plate. The board still has him priced like a hitter running something closer to his season norm, and I don't think that's who's stepping in the box tonight.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+155

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Jose Siri

Siri has two home runs in his last week on just thirteen at-bats — that's a hot power stretch, not a fluke swing. He's a right-handed bat against a left-hander in Gore, and Gore's home run rate against right-handers is actually higher than what he allows to lefties — fourteen home runs surrendered to righties this season against just two to lefties. The wind is blowing out to center tonight, and Siri's bat is already working. This is a swing-for-value prop and I'm treating it as one, but the matchup and his current form line up well enough to take a shot at plus-500.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+505

MLB · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Michael Soroka

Soroka hasn't thrown a big-league pitch since June 19th, a start that ended after a single inning when his glute gave out. Since then it's been one rehab outing to get him cleared, and tonight he's back in a real game.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+105

MLB · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Willi Castro

Willi Castro is running a 1.162 OPS over his last fifteen games with four home runs out of the seven-hole, production nobody plans a pitching approach around from that lineup spot. He's combined for two or more hits, runs, and RBI in twelve of those fifteen games. Tonight he faces a pitcher making his first start in nearly two months off a single rehab outing — whatever Soroka has left after that layoff hasn't been tested against a real lineup yet, and Castro is the hottest bat in the one he's about to see. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI+133

MLB · Brewers @ Padres

Casey Mize

Every pitch in Casey Mize's arsenal has lost a tick since last season — the four-seam, the sinker, the slider, the splitter, all of it down from where it sat in 2025. It shows up first in the swing-and-miss column: his whiff rate has cratered to nine percent and then five percent his last two times out, which means hitters aren't missing him, they're finding him.

OVER 4.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-116

MLB · Brewers @ Padres

Jackson Merrill

Jackson Merrill has driven in fourteen runs over his last fifteen games — nearly one a night for two straight weeks — while hitting .357 with a 1.004 OPS in that stretch. He's batting fifth in a Padres order where Tatis and Machado are both raking near the top, which means he keeps getting chances with runners in front of him.

OVER 0.5 RBI+220

MLB HR · Brewers @ Padres

Jackson Chourio

I already like Jackson Chourio's total bases tonight, and the home run number by itself is too generous to leave alone. Four homers in his last fifteen games is better than a one-in-four clip, and this price is built like it happens less than one time in five.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+464

MLB · Rays @ Athletics

Jacob Lopez

Forget the season-long line — it's dragged down by a lost stretch in May and a forty-day gap before Oakland stretched him back out as a starter. The pitcher on the mound tonight is the one from his last three turns: fifteen and a third innings, twenty-one strikeouts, three earned runs, with whiff rates in the high-20s and 30s every time out.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+117

MLB · Rays @ Athletics

Freddy Peralta

The same stretch that has Peralta getting pulled early has hitters finding barrels against him — nine hits, six, eight, six, seven in five of his last six starts. The only quiet one was a walk-heavy three-hitter where he still couldn't finish the fifth inning, so even his good nights aren't clean.

OVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed+120

MLB HR · Rays @ Athletics

Junior Caminero

Caminero's carrying a three-homer week into Sacramento on real contact, not luck — twelve hard-hit balls and four barrels in his last three weeks of at-bats, average exit velocity sitting at 95 miles an hour. He's as locked in as anyone in this lineup right now.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+188

MLB · Astros @ Giants

Christian Walker

Walker's reached base with a hit in thirteen of his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty contact — ninety-three and a half miles an hour average exit velocity over that stretch, ten balls scalded. He's a right-handed bat walking into the one pitch in Tidwell's mix that hasn't missed a bat all season: a mid-nineties fastball thrown better than a third of the time with a whiff rate of zero across a hundred-plus looks, and an expected weighted on-base near .450 whenever it's in the zone.

OVER 0.5 Hits-180

MLB · Astros @ Giants

Blade Tidwell

Tidwell hasn't struck out four hitters in a start in eight tries, and the one data point we have at the actual big-league level backs it up exactly — three punchouts in five innings against Texas last week, which he called a career high. This reads like a leash, not a lack of stuff — his slider is missing half the bats that swing at it and the sweeper gets its own share of empty swings too.

UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts+113

MLB HR · Astros @ Giants

Taylor Trammell

Trammell's put four home runs on the board over his last fifteen games, and the contact quality says this isn't a fluke — three barrels out of just fourteen balls in play, average exit velocity over ninety, and a chase rate under twenty percent, so he's not reaching for it. He's left-handed against a pitcher who's genuinely had trouble with that side: .333 with an .860 on-base-plus-slugging allowed to lefties, a home run already given up in thirty-three at-bats.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+620

MLB · Royals @ Dodgers

Tarik Skubal

Back on July 24, in a different uniform, Skubal took the mound against this same Royals lineup and struck out twelve of them in seven and a third innings. Nothing about that lineup gives me a reason to think that was a fluke — Caglianone's chasing forty-seven percent of pitches out of the zone, Jensen's whiffing at a forty-one percent clip lately, Loftin's barely squaring anything up at 73.2 mph average exit velocity. Skubal's punched out twenty-four hitters over his last twenty innings, and he's making his first start at his new home ballpark with every reason to put on a show. The strikeouts are the surest thing on this board tonight.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts-113

MLB · Royals @ Dodgers

Jac Caglianone

Caglianone's hitting .478 over his last seven games, and two nights ago against the Cubs he went 4-for-4 with two home runs — the kind of week where a young hitter stops seeing spin and starts seeing softballs. He chases everything, forty-seven percent out of the zone the last two weeks, but right now that aggression is finding barrels instead of costing him at-bats: 92.5 mph average exit velocity, two barrels in his last twenty-five balls in play. Neither he nor the rest of the Royals lineup has any real track record against Skubal, so there's no history to lean on either way — just a bat that's currently the hottest thing on either roster. One hit is the ask tonight, and he's cleared that in ten of his last fifteen games.

OVER 0.5 Hits-137

Hub research

153

bullpen_fatigueBOS @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto's top relief arms are running on fumes — Fisher and Estrada have worked both of the last two days, Rogers and Little aren't far behind, and Varland's the only real fresh arm in that pen. Seven of eight arms are carrying multi-day mileage into tonight. If Toronto's starter can't get through six, whoever comes in behind him has already been through the wringer this week.
starter_team_recordMIL @ SD
Brewers 8-0 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Eight starts, eight wins is a number I respect but don't fully trust — that's the whole Brewers roster getting credit for showing up, not something Henderson's doing with his arm alone. Still, a mark that clean rarely happens by accident this late in a season. I'd want to see how San Diego's actually playing before I lean on a streak like this one.
bullpen_fatiguePHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Philadelphia's been burning through Duran, Raley and Kerkering in short bursts the last two days — quick, high-leverage work, not saved bullets. Kilian's barely been touched and is the freshest multi-inning arm they've got if this game runs long. Whoever starts for the Phillies needs to actually get through six, because this pen is thinner at the top than the raw innings number lets on.
starter_team_recordBAL @ MIN
Orioles 7-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 7-1 when Rogers takes the ball, which tells me more about how complete this roster plays on his turn than it does about Rogers specifically. A stretch that strong repeating itself over and over stops looking like noise. Minnesota's up next, and that same group takes the field again tonight.
starter_team_recordPHI @ STL
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
One win in Painter's last eight starts is a rough number for Philadelphia regardless of who's actually pitching well or poorly underneath it. That's a full team not coming together on his day, not one guy losing games by himself. It hasn't broken yet, and St. Louis doesn't hand out easy nights to teams stuck in a pattern like that.
starter_team_recordBOS @ TOR
Red Sox 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
One loss in eight Gray starts is close to automatic, and results that lopsided over a real sample usually mean the whole roster's clicking, not just one arm carrying the load. I still weight this as team context more than a read on Gray himself. Boston travels well with this version of themselves — that's the part worth noting walking into Toronto.
platoon_edgeBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Lukes leads off tonight, and the version of him that shows up against right-handers — .766 — is the one that's carried his whole season, not the thin sample from the left side. He gets Gray fresh in the first and then again every time the lineup turns over.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingTB @ OAK
TB have won 6 straight
6 wins in a row for TB, a +15 run margin across the streak — they come in 8-2 over their last 10.
P team won 10-6
park_weatherBOS @ TOR
Wind blowing out 17 mph at Rogers Centre tonight
Seventeen out to right at Rogers Centre is about as strong as ballpark wind gets, turning warning-track fly balls into souvenirs, and the warm air only adds more carry on top of it. Both lineups are hitting into the same wind tonight, so with the total at 4.5, one mistake pitch in the air can do real damage to that number.
P final total 3 vs 4.5 (over lean)
platoon_edgePHI @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Andrew Painter (RHP)
Burleson's hitting third with a .969 mark against right-handers behind him over a full season, and Painter's handing him exactly that look. That's the middle of the order getting the matchup it wants, with runners already on to make it count.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
starter_formTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 11.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sixteen runs across three starts isn't one bad outing skewing the number — that's three separate beatings. His baserunner rate has climbed well past his own season pace too, which tells me he's lost the strike zone as much as he's lost luck. I've got no reason to think he steadies himself tonight against a lineup that can be patient.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
platoon_edgeHOU @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Hayden Wesneski (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert's season line is dragged down by what he's done against lefties — strip those at-bats out and he's a real threat against right-handers like Wesneski tonight. Batting sixth, he's getting that matchup after Wesneski's already had to work through the top of the order.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
platoon_edgeMIL @ SD
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brice Turang leading off means Casey Mize opens his night against the version of this lineup that gives him the most trouble, not one he can ease into. That matchup doesn't happen once — it recurs every time the order turns over, starting with the very first hitter he sees.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
platoon_edgePHI @ STL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's hitting 1.005 against right-handers over 264 at-bats, and batting third means that matchup arrives early with the table already set. Dobbins throwing right-handed isn't hiding from Harper anywhere — that's the best version of him, not the tough one.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
starter_team_recordCOL @ ARI
Rockies 1-5 in Gabriel Hughes's last 6 starts
One win in Hughes's last six starts — that's not the exception right now, that's the standard. Whatever's going sideways for Colorado on his day hasn't found a way to break yet, including the one game that snapped it briefly. Arizona's next, and the Rockies bring that same unresolved stretch with them on the road.
heat_checkPHI @ STL
Bryson Stott: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
Stott's running a 1.228 OPS over his last 42 trips to the plate, and with only eight homers on the season, this looks like barrel control and timing, not a power spike. A clean single or double gets the job done against a total bases number set at 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeBOS @ TOR
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 5th against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Sanchez batting fifth against Gray gets the righty-tested version of him — .806 over 200-plus at-bats, a lot more trustworthy than the 27-at-bat sample from the left side. He won't see Gray as often as the top of the order, but every look comes in an RBI spot.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
starter_team_recordTEX @ LAA
Angels 2-6 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
Two wins in eight Detmers starts is a pattern I'd flag more than trust blindly — that's a team result, and it's repeated regardless of opponent or ballpark, which is what makes it worth noting instead of dismissing as coincidence. Texas is on the road tonight, and that streak's still active.
platoon_edgeHOU @ SF
Taylor Trammell (bats L) hits 5th against Blade Tidwell (RHP)
Taylor Trammell hits fifth tonight, right behind the heart of the order, so Blade Tidwell doesn't get a breather once he's through the big bats — this matchup is waiting one batter later. Trammell's whole game changes for the better against a right-hander, and that's exactly who's stepping in.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsRays @ Athletics
Junior Caminero
Gary's Take Caminero's carrying the hottest bat on this entire board right now — three home runs in his last seven games, four in his last fifteen. What sells it for me is how he's getting there: four barreled balls out of twenty-one batted-ball events in that stretch, average exit velocity sitting at 95 miles an hour.
P 1 HR — 1-for-5, 4 TB
gary_hr_threatsMets @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson's a different hitter right now than his season averages suggest. Seven homers in his last fifteen games, six barrels in his last eighteen balls in play, 93 mph average exit velocity — that's a hitter squaring the ball up at an elite rate over a real sample, not a hot week padded by bloop hits.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB
platoon_edgeHOU @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.917 OPS, 298 AB) sits well above his .550 mark the other way (148 AB). Tonight's starter Hayden Wesneski throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsRays @ Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom
Gary's Take Soderstrom's the one Athletics bat doing real damage lately — three homers in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week — and his average exit velocity over that stretch, 96.5 miles an hour, is the loudest number on either roster tonight. He's left-handed, and Freddy Peralta has had a real lefty problem all year: .840 OPS and fifteen home runs allowed in just 308 at-bats against them, nearly triple his rate against righties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 2 TB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ Blue Jays
Wilyer Abreu
Gary's Take Abreu's barreling everything right now — three homers in his last seven games, a 1.584 OPS over that stretch, and the best exit velocity on this whole board behind it, 96 mph average with five barrels in his last twenty balls in play. That's not a hot streak riding seeing-eye singles, that's a bat finding the sweet spot over and over.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offTEX @ LAA
Wyatt Langford: .509 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Wyatt Langford's flattened out over the last two weeks, and tonight doesn't offer much relief — left-handers have given him trouble all season, and Detmers throws left-handed. When a cold stretch and a season-long weakness point the same direction, that's usually more than randomness.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
heat_checkMIL @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.004 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's OPS has jumped nearly 300 points over his last 15 days to 1.004, with 18 homers already this season. Tonight's 0.5 total-bases number looks conservative for how he's swinging it right now.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
platoon_edgeTEX @ LAA
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Reid Detmers throwing left-handed hands Justin Foscue exactly the look he's built for — this is the version of him that heats up against same-side pitching. Batting sixth, he still sees Detmers as the order turns over, so it's not a one-time look.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offTEX @ LAA
Zach Neto: .408 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Zach Neto's been ice cold for two weeks, but tonight's actually his best matchup on the board — MacKenzie Gore throws left-handed, and lefties are where Neto's done his best hitting all year. If there's a night for him to snap out of it, this is the one.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
starter_formBOS @ TOR
Jameson Taillon: 10.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
Taillon's last three starts are ugly on their own, but it's the shaky season line underneath that worries me more. His baserunner rate over this stretch has climbed past even his own rough season pace, so this isn't a couple of homers skewing a clean ledger — it's a bad patch on top of a bad year. Boston's lineup works counts, and that's not a good matchup for him tonight.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
bullpen_fatigueTB @ OAK
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Matz threw three innings in his outing this week, which usually means he's not an option again this soon. Wells and Legumina are the two names sitting freshest after single, low-pitch-count outings. Tampa only ran seven arms through this stretch and five already carry multi-day miles — if the starter gets in trouble early, the choices to cover it are thin.
head_to_headBAL @ MIN
Orioles are 4-1 vs Twins this season
Four-and-one in the season series sounds like a real edge until you remember that record traces back to which starters happened to draw which matchups, and that resets completely tonight. The one game that got out of hand — that 8-6 finale — was a slugfest, not a shutdown, so if anything it says both lineups have gotten to whatever arms they've faced. I wouldn't carry this into tonight's game at all.
platoon_edgeCOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Moniak's hitting .940 against right-handers on 223 at-bats — real volume, not a hot streak — and batting fifth puts him right behind the middle of the order in a spot built to drive guys in. Soroka's giving him the look he's already proven he handles.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Cardinals
Alec Burleson
Gary's Take Burleson's the hottest bat in this lineup right now — four homers in his last seven games, and Statcast says even that's underselling him, since his expected wOBA is running ahead of his actual number this season. He's squaring the ball up as hard as anyone on this roster, averaging just under 96 miles an hour on contact with four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
gary_hr_threatsOrioles @ Twins
Pete Alonso
Gary's Take Alonso's the best swing in this lineup card right now, and it isn't close. Four homers in his last fifteen games, two of them came last night in Arlington on a night he also drew two walks and scored three times, and the underlying contact backs it up — 94.7 average exit velocity over that stretch with six barrels logged on eighteen balls in play.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formKC @ LAD
Noah Cameron: 0.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-three innings across three starts with one earned run and two dozen strikeouts is about as complete a stretch as a pitcher can put together — he's working deep and missing bats, not running a shiny ERA on soft contact. This is the arm dictating terms tonight, not the lineup across from him.
P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
ownedNYM @ ATL
Francisco Lindor vs Bryce Elder: .462
Lindor's hit .462 off Bryce Elder with real pop mixed in, and he's swinging it well right now on top of that history. Elder's got to get through a hitter who's already hurt him and is playing some of his best baseball of the year.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
heat_checkCOL @ ARI
Willi Castro: 1.162 OPS in Last 15 Days
Castro's at 1.162 over his last 37 plate appearances, and with thirteen homers already this season, the pop backing it up says this isn't empty contact. A 0.5 total bases number is about as low a bar as there is for a bat seeing it this well.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
cooling_offKC @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Cameron
Tommy Edman's bat has gone cold over the last two weeks, and Noah Cameron's left-handed look is already the one split where Edman runs a touch below his own numbers. That's not a matchup that hands him an easy way back to form.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsRed Sox @ Blue Jays
Masataka Yoshida
Gary's Take Yoshida's the most disciplined bat in this lineup right now — thirteen hits in his last fifteen games, a .333 average, and when you look at what's behind it: 92.6 mph average exit velocity, a 13 percent whiff rate, chasing outside the zone only one time in five. He's not missing pitches to hit and he's not missing them when he swings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
starter_formTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 1.76 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-one strikeouts in three starts is the number that gets my attention — that's swings and misses, not soft contact finding gloves. Three earned runs allowed in that stretch means he hasn't been nibbling into trouble and escaping it, he's been in control the whole way through. Whatever clicked for him, it's real enough that Tampa Bay's going to have to earn every bit of contact it gets tonight.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
two_start_weekColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 at Diamondbacks, Sat 8/15 at Giants (proj). 2.42 xERA this season.
heat_checkBAL @ MIN
Royce Lewis: 1.024 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lewis is running a 1.024 OPS over 51 plate appearances, the deepest sample in this group, and it's held up across a real mix of pitching. Thirteen homers already this year means he clears a 1.5 total bases number without needing his best swing.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offPHI @ STL
Jordan Walker: .585 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andrew Painter
Walker's at .585 over just 52 plate appearances, and even his supposedly tougher split against right-handers like Painter sits at .803 — that's not a weak side, that's a season average most guys would take. This looks like results lagging the contact, not a hitter who's lost something.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
starter_formMIL @ SD
Casey Mize: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ten earned runs in under thirteen innings is a real departure from the season Mize built, and what stands out is he'd made his name all year on keeping runners off base — watching that rate climb this fast says the command isn't there right now. This reads like a good pitcher caught in a bad patch, and Milwaukee's lineup is walking into him at the worst point of his year so far.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
cooling_offCOL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .593 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gabriel Hughes
Corbin Carroll's only a little cold relative to how strong his season's been, but the bigger factor tonight is the matchup — right-handed pitching has been a real weakness for him all year, and Gabriel Hughes throws right-handed. This one's more about the assignment than the last two weeks.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
streakingCOL @ ARI
ARI games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for ARI — their games are producing only 5.5 runs against numbers around 8.9. Tonight's number sits at 8.25.
P final total 9 vs 8.25
streakingTB @ OAK
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 4.3 runs a night against an average line of 8.3. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 16 vs 10.5
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 at Padres, Sat 8/15 at Dodgers (proj). 2.62 xERA this season.
cooling_offPHI @ STL
Brandon Marsh: .481 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Marsh is at .481 over 53 plate appearances, but that's a small sample finding gloves instead of grass — his .794 mark against right-handers is well clear of his season average, the opposite of a split he's fighting. Dobbins gives him the exact look that's produced his best numbers all year.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 vs Red Sox, Sun 8/16 vs Yankees (proj). 2.7 xERA this season.
heat_checkNYM @ ATL
Marcus Semien: .941 OPS in Last 15 Days
Semien's swing is climbing back — .941 over his last two weeks after running roughly three hundred points of OPS below that for a stretch. Fourteen homers on the season says the power never left, and a 0.5 total bases number is an easy clear for a bat finding its timing again.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
cooling_offMIL @ SD
Christian Yelich: .430 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Casey Mize
Christian Yelich's numbers against right-handers are basically in line with his season average, so Casey Mize isn't really the explanation for the cold stretch. This one reads like timing more than matchup — whether he's found his rhythm again matters more than who's on the mound tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
heat_checkNYM @ ATL
Carson Benge: 1.007 OPS in Last 15 Days
Benge is running a 1.007 OPS over 46 plate appearances, a long enough look to trust, and thirteen homers already this season back up the power. Coming off a .744 season mark, this is a swing seeing the ball deeper and squaring up more of it.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCOL @ ARI
Geraldo Perdomo: .952 OPS in Last 15 Days
Geraldo Perdomo's riding a .952 OPS over his last 15 days, well clear of his .735 season mark, with 9 homers banked. The 1.5 total-bases line tonight is a reasonable ask given how he's been swinging it.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
starter_formBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Nineteen hits in fifteen innings over his last three starts is more than a hit an inning, and fifteen earned runs in that same stretch means almost nobody's getting stranded once they're on. His season number was already below where a rotation arm wants to be, and this stretch has pushed well past it. A lineup that just puts the ball in play against him tonight doesn't need to do much else.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
regression_tomorrowCOL @ ARI
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.51 ERA vs 7.15 xERA
Sugano's hard-hit and barrel numbers are both flashing red, and a 4.51 ERA sitting 49 points of batting average below what that contact quality says it should be is the definition of getting away with it. That's balls finding gloves, not hitters missing barrels. He lines up against Arizona again tomorrow, and hard, well-struck contact against a lineup that punishes mistakes is a bigger threat to that ERA than anything in his results so far.
platoon_edgeBAL @ MIN
Austin Martin (bats R) draws Trevor Rogers (LHP), batting 1st
Martin's season line blends two different hitters, and facing a lefty in Trevor Rogers isolates the better half — .753 over 116 at-bats against left-handers. Leading off means he gets that look early, then again every time through the order.
P 4-for-5, 8 TB
bullpen_fatigueHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houser threw 86 pitches over five innings in one outing — that's starter-length work out of a bullpen, and he's effectively off the board tonight no matter what else this pen has left. Seymour's carrying the next-heaviest load, while Smith, Hentges and Winn have the accumulated mileage from multiple outings and Foley's the only arm barely touched. San Francisco's got more usable relief than the innings total suggests, they just can't lean on their best two names against Houston.
heat_checkBOS @ TOR
Caleb Durbin: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days
Durbin's at .968 over 49 plate appearances, and it's a smaller jump over his season mark than most of this group — that looks like a hitter building into form rather than catching a one-week heater. Eleven homers on the season clears a 0.5 total bases number with room to spare.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offBAL @ MIN
Gunnar Henderson: .450 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dean Kremer
Henderson's cold two weeks — .450 over 44 plate appearances — lines up with a soft spot that's been soft all year: his .652 against right-handers over 326 at-bats already sits below his .678 season line. Kremer's the exact side of the plate where the production's been thinnest, not a get-right matchup.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
ownedTEX @ LAA
Reid Detmers vs Ezequiel Duran: 1-for-15, 7 K
Reid Detmers has had Ezequiel Duran's number from the jump — 1-for-15 with seven strikeouts, and not much loud contact even in that one hit. That's an arm dictating the at-bat before Duran ever digs in tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Kyle Harrison
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Padres, Sun 8/16 at Dodgers (proj). 3.01 xERA this season.
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/10
Paul Skenes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Marlins, Sun 8/16 vs Red Sox (proj). 3.01 xERA this season.
two_start_weekLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Royals, Sat 8/15 vs Brewers (proj). 2.99 xERA this season.
heat_checkBAL @ MIN
Tyler O'Neill: 1.205 OPS in Last 15 Days
O'Neill's swing is built for exactly this kind of burst — 1.205 over just 24 plate appearances, the shortest look in the group, but ten homers on the season says the power was always the plan. A 1.5 total bases number is right in his lane if he connects even once tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offHOU @ SF
Bryce Eldridge: .504 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hayden Wesneski
Bryce Eldridge's .504 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .768 season mark, down 0.264. Tonight he draws RHP Hayden Wesneski — his stronger side: a .778 OPS vs RHP across 191 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.64 ERA vs 3.52 xERA
A hard-hit rate in the low 30s and a barrel rate under 5% are genuinely stingy — that's a pitcher who should be running an ERA close to 3.5, not near 5.6. Opponents are hitting almost 60 points higher than that contact quality supports, which reads like bad luck on balls in play more than bad stuff. The underlying package is sharper than the ERA on the page, and tonight looks like a fair spot for that gap to start closing.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
cooling_offNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .590 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Baldwin's at .590 over 56 plate appearances, but his .862 mark against right-handers over 223 at-bats is the best number in his whole profile, well above his season average. Scott puts him right back in the matchup his numbers say he should be thriving in.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
bullpen_fatigueTEX @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kerry went 98 pitches over five-plus innings in relief this week — that's a starter's workload, and he's not an option again for a few days. Outside that one outlier, this pen's actually in good shape: Saucedo, Watson and Heineman are fresh off modest or light workloads, and even Weiman and Anderson's added mileage doesn't take them off the board. The middle of this bullpen is rested tonight — they just can't go back to Kerry to eat innings.
cut_listHOU tonight
Hayden Wesneski
Starts tonight for HOU — 5.65 xERA behind a 3.86 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
two_start_weekTexas Rangers — week of 8/10
Cody Bradford
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Angels, Sun 8/16 at Athletics (proj). 3.18 xERA this season.
heat_checkPHI @ STL
Bryce Harper: 1.086 OPS in Last 15 Days
Harper's adding a gear on top of an already .870 season mark — 1.086 over his last 49 plate appearances. Twenty-five homers by this point means a 1.5 total bases number is well within range even on a normal week, let alone this one.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
Gabriel Hughes: 4.25 ERA vs 2.42 xERA
A 1.18 WHIP and a barrel rate under 4% are elite marks for limiting hard contact, which makes a 4.25 ERA look like the wrong read on this guy. Hitters are batting 50 points higher than that contact quality supports, and the strikeout rate backs up that he's missing barrels even when the results say otherwise. This is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests, and against Arizona tonight I'd expect that gap to close through improvement, not further damage.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
platoon_edgeCOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Rumfield's .881 against right-handers over 286 at-bats is well ahead of what he's done against lefties, and hitting third against Soroka puts that track record in the highest-leverage spot in the lineup. That's volume, not a hot two weeks, backing tonight's matchup.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offCOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield: .598 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Soroka
Rumfield's .598 over 48 plate appearances is thin next to his .881 mark against right-handers over 286 at-bats, the best number in his whole profile. Soroka's giving him the exact side of the plate that's carried his season.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offNYM @ ATL
Michael Harris II: .644 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Harris's dip to .644 is the mildest in this group, and it looks like exactly that — a quiet stretch, not a mechanical issue, since his .810 mark against right-handers is basically identical to his season number. Scott gives him the same handedness he's handled all season.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
ballpark_shiftCOL @ ARI
Michael Soroka owns a 2.05 ERA at Chase Field — 4.54 everywhere else
A 2.05 ERA at Chase Field against 4.54 everywhere else is a real split — forty-eight innings over nine starts is too big a sample to write off as a hot streak, and a .232 average against backs it up as more than luck. He's actually thrown more innings in this ballpark than everywhere else on his ledger combined. Whatever he's doing here looks repeatable, and Colorado's walking into it tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
two_start_weekSan Diego Padres — week of 8/10
Casey Mize
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Brewers, Sat 8/15 at Guardians (proj). 3.34 xERA this season.
platoon_edgeNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Baldwin's .862 against right-handers over 223 at-bats is a real step up from his lefty numbers, and leading off means he gets Scott immediately, then again every turn through the order. That's the better half of his platoon split, right from the first pitch.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
cooling_offBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes: .481 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sonny Gray
Lukes's cold two weeks — .481 over 50 plate appearances — is too small a window to erase what 230 at-bats against right-handers already proved: a .766 mark comfortably above his season average. Gray puts him right back on the side of the plate where he's done his best work all year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
two_start_weekSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Astros, Sat 8/15 vs Rockies (proj). 3.3 xERA this season.
heat_checkBOS @ TOR
Wilyer Abreu: .987 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a .987 OPS, up 0.197 on his .790 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_tomorrowTB @ OAK
Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Nothing in Martinez's hard-hit or barrel numbers is out of the ordinary, which is what makes a 2.65 ERA running almost two runs better than his expected mark stand out. Opponents hitting 30-plus points below what the contact quality says they should is the tell that sequencing and timing are doing more work than anything repeatable. He's back out there against Oakland tomorrow, and I'd expect this one to drift toward the expected number before it holds where it's been.
cooling_offCOL @ ARI
Troy Johnston: .292 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Soroka
Johnston's .292 over just 24 plate appearances is the smallest sample in this group, and his .794 mark against right-handers over 242 at-bats says the fuller picture is a lot friendlier. Soroka tonight gives him exactly that side of the plate.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak: .276 AVG vs .227 xBA
Moniak's average and overall production are both running hot by close to the same margin, and that's not even 300 plate appearances yet — there's plenty of room left for it to move. Contact quality tends to win out over a full season, and it's usually the batting line that bends down to meet it.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeBAL @ MIN
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Dean Kremer (RHP), batting 5th
Dylan Beavers carries a .687 OPS vs. Right (161 AB) against .506 the other way (30 AB), and faces RHP Dean Kremer from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
platoon_edgeNYM @ ATL
Jared Young (bats L) hits 5th against Bryce Elder (RHP)
Over 171 AB vs. Right, Jared Young owns a .795 OPS versus .619 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Bryce Elder tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Chandler Simpson: .304 AVG vs .257 xBA
Chandler Simpson's been running well ahead of his actual contact quality all season — .304 against a .257 expected mark — and there's almost no power cushion underneath the average to soften the fall. Tonight's another night for that gap to close, and on him it shows up as outs on balls that used to find grass.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ TOR
Boston Red Sox pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Burgos averaging three innings an outing across his last two appearances is bulk relief work, and that usage tends to catch up fast — same story with Bello's four-inning outing. But Guerrero, Morán, Whitlock and Chapman all threw a single inning at modest counts, which is about as fresh as a pen gets. Only one arm on this staff has multiple outings in the stretch — Boston's actually got more short-relief options walking into Toronto than the raw innings number suggests.
cut_listTOR tonight
Jameson Taillon
Starts tonight for TOR — 6.07 xERA behind a 5.96 ERA.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ TOR
Wilyer Abreu
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .790 OPS, bats 3rd.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ TOR
Ceddanne Rafaela
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .787 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_watchKC @ LAD
Mookie Betts: .229 AVG vs .273 xBA
Mookie Betts is getting worse results than his contact deserves — a .229 average against a .273 expected mark — and gaps running this direction tend to close upward, not down. Tonight against Kansas City is as fair a stage as any for some of those hard-hit balls to finally land.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 5.37 ERA vs 3.95 xERA
Peralta's hard-hit rate pushing 40% is the real issue here, even though the strikeout stuff still grades out well and hitters are running 34 points hotter than his expected mark suggests they should. That's bad luck stacking on top of already-elevated hard contact, not one clean explanation. There's swing-and-miss ability to lean on, but the contact quality keeps this from being a clean bounce-back case tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
beneficiaryBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (.766 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Lukes isn't just borrowing a glove in right field — fourteen days into Barger's elbow issue, this looks like the settled arrangement, not a one-night fix. He inherits the leadoff spot too, which means the most plate appearances in the lineup tonight against a righty he's hit .766 against this year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
beneficiaryMIL @ SD
Luis Rengifo (.687 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Two months at left field makes Rengifo the plan now, not a placeholder — sixth against a righty tonight, right where the order needs someone to keep turning over into more looks at Henderson late. His numbers against right-handers are well clear of his season line, exactly what that spot in the order needs.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
beneficiaryTB @ OAK
Ryan Vilade (.827 vs LHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Eight days in and Tampa's already trusting Vilade with the cleanup spot against a lefty — that's not fill-in usage. His track record against lefties is well ahead of his season number, so the run-production job tonight fits the hitter, not just the opening.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
beneficiaryKC @ LAD
Nick Loftin (.750 vs LHP) replaces Maikel Garcia at 3B tonight
Loftin just took over third and the leadoff spot yesterday, so this is still fresh, but his numbers against lefties sit well above his season line — exactly the matchup he's stepping into against Skubal. How he handles those early at-bats shapes how the rest of the order approaches the night.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
park_weatherPHI @ STL
96° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Ninety-six degrees at Busch tonight, and thin air plus a breeze pushing out to center means fly balls that die on a cooler night find the seats instead. That favors anybody lifting the ball to the gaps on both sides, and it puts starters working up in the zone on notice.
P final total 11 vs 9 (over lean)
regression_tomorrowCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 4.6 ERA vs 6.14 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 38% and a touch of extra barrel rate don't match an ERA running a run and a half below his expected number. Opponents hitting 15 points under what they're expected to is a modest gap, not an extreme one, but the direction's the same — the process says he's allowing more than the results show. Against the White Sox tomorrow, I'd trust the harder contact over the ERA sitting on top of it.
regression_watchBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 5.93 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
Nothing about Kremer's contact profile is extreme in either direction — average hard-hit rate, only a modestly elevated barrel rate — so the gap between his ERA and expected ERA reads more like a handful of costly innings than a pitcher getting hit hard every time out. Opponents are only 14 points over their expected average, a much smaller gap than the ERA alone suggests. The strikeout rate holding near 8.8 is the real positive hiding under an ugly number, and there's close to a full run of ERA sitting on the table once results start matching the process.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
park_weatherKC @ LAD
Wind blowing out 10 mph at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium tonight
Warm night at Dodger Stadium with the wind blowing straight out to the deepest part of the yard — that's a carry setup for both lineups, not just the pull-side power. Good contact up the middle plays at 7.5, and a fly ball that usually gets run down in the gap has a real shot to land in the seats.
P final total 11 vs 7.5 (over lean)
cut_listSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.591 OPS, 0.216 AVG from the 2-hole.
running_gameMIL @ SD
San Diego Padres like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
San Diego runs regardless of who's catching, but Contreras has thrown out two of every five runners this year, and that doesn't change tonight. Expect the attempts to keep coming — just not all of them turning into runners in scoring position.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
regression_watchPHI @ STL
Andrew Painter: 6.48 ERA vs 5.15 xERA
This isn't purely bad luck for Painter — a 9% barrel rate is a real red flag, and hitters are actually outperforming even his elevated expected average by nearly 30 points. Both the contact quality and the results on top of it have been rough. There's some give-back coming since even a shaky underlying profile doesn't support a 6.48 ERA, but the barrel rate needs to tighten up before I trust the results turning consistently better.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
park_weatherHOU @ SF
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Ten out to center at Oracle isn't enough to turn routine outs into homers, but the ones that usually die on the track have a real shot to keep carrying tonight. Cooler air takes a little off it, so I'd expect doubles turning into homers more than easy outs vanishing — at 8.5, one flush swing to the gap moves that total.
P final total 9 vs 8.5 (over lean)
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield: .295 AVG vs .256 xBA
Rumfield's gap between what he's hitting and what his contact says he should hit has held up over 464 plate appearances — a real season's worth of evidence, not a hot two weeks. That kind of gap has proven stubborn, but expected numbers built on contact quality tend to catch up eventually.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cut_listTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
Still hitting 2nd for TOR — 0.598 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 2-hole.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ TOR
Masataka Yoshida
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .746 OPS, bats 5th.
regression_watchPHI @ STL
Luis Arraez: .320 AVG vs .284 xBA
Arraez is hitting .320 against a .284 expected average, and that gap has held across nearly 500 plate appearances — too big a sample to call it puff. The wOBA gap tracks right alongside it, spread evenly all season, not padded by one hot stretch. I'll trust the bat-to-ball feel here over the expected number catching up to him.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
regression_tomorrowTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.11 ERA vs 5.72 xERA
A barrel rate near 11% is a genuine problem, and opponents hitting close to what that contact quality suggests tells me this isn't bad luck piling onto good process — the process itself has warning signs. His expected ERA is still better than the 7.11 he's actually running, but neither number is one I'd feel good about heading into Texas tomorrow. Until that barrel rate comes down, I don't see a clean case for the ERA correcting either way.
closer_watchNYM @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 24 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
cooling_offBAL @ MIN
Dylan Beavers: .472 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dean Kremer
Dylan Beavers's .472 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .659 season mark, down 0.187. Tonight he draws RHP Dean Kremer — his stronger side: a .687 OPS vs RHP across 161 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
closer_watchBOS @ TOR
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).
closer_watchPHI @ STL
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 29 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ TOR
Caleb Durbin
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 6th.
regression_watchBOS @ TOR
Ceddanne Rafaela: .284 AVG vs .250 xBA
Ceddanne Rafaela's .284 average comes against a .250 expected (xBA) on 471 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .342 against a .288 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
rest_fatigueMIL @ SD
MIL has played 9 days running — SD rested yesterday
Nine days straight without a break shows up in the bullpen first — the relief arms that carried that workload are running low, and every trip back to that well late leaves fewer good options. San Diego sat yesterday and walks in with a full bullpen sheet and nothing off the table for their manager. That imbalance late is the part of this matchup I'm watching.
P flagged side lost 2-3
cooling_offBOS @ TOR
Anthony Seigler: .515 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jameson Taillon
Anthony Seigler's .515 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .714 season mark, down 0.199. Tonight he draws RHP Jameson Taillon — his stronger side: a .782 OPS vs RHP across 97 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
cut_listOAK tonight
Jeff McNeil
Still hitting 1st for OAK — 0.640 OPS, 0.251 AVG from the 1-hole.
cut_listKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.636 OPS, 0.216 AVG from the 4-hole.
fantasy_pickupsMIL @ SD
Casey Mize
Streamer vs MIL — 3.34 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP.
regression_tomorrowNYM @ ATL
Martín Pérez: 3.14 ERA vs 4.32 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 37% is on the high side, though the low barrel rate says he's mostly turning that into playable balls rather than real damage. What stands out is opponents hitting 44 points below their expected average — a sizable gap, and it points to results running well ahead of the underlying contact quality. He gets the Mets tomorrow, and I'd expect the ERA to drift up toward that expected number rather than keep holding near 3.14.
cut_listMIN tonight
Austin Martin
Still hitting 1st for MIN — 0.657 OPS, 0.232 AVG from the 1-hole.
return_watchARI — return listed 8/14
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/14 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/14
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/14 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
closer_watchTEX @ LAA
Samy Natera Jr. / Jose Fermin
Shared ninth in LAA: Samy Natera Jr. 2 saves, Jose Fermin 1. The role is live.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ TOR
Patrick Sandoval: 3.38 ERA vs 4.47 xERA
There's a real split here — a barrel rate under 4.5% is elite contact management, but hitters are actually batting .309 against Sandoval, 40 points higher than even his expected average. That tells me the low ERA isn't coming from limiting damage on balls in play, it's coming from what happens after — stranding runners, getting outs when it matters. Against Toronto tomorrow, I'd trust the .309 over the ERA.
running_gameMIL @ SD
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Freddy Fermin (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee runs at the same clip no matter who's behind the plate, and Fermin's caught right around a third of attempts this year — enough to make them pay, not enough to shut it down. Expect the volume to be there tonight, with at least one runner not making it.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base
regression_tomorrowPIT @ MIA
Paul Skenes: 3.96 ERA vs 3.01 xERA
Even at Skenes's level, a hard-hit rate pushing 39% is worth flagging, though the barrel rate's much more normal. Hitters are only 18 points over his expected average, a modest gap — this reads more like results running slightly worse than the process than a guy getting hammered by bad luck. Against Miami tomorrow, I'd trust the 3.01 expected number over the 3.96 he's actually carrying.
cut_listPHI tonight
Andrew Painter
Starts tonight for PHI — 5.15 xERA behind a 6.48 ERA.
regression_watchHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
A .333 win rate in one-run games is mostly noise — that's high-variance stuff that tends to find its way back toward .500 over time. San Francisco's overall record is probably selling their actual team short more than it's telling you something real about close games.
running_gameTB @ OAK
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%
A 16 percent catch rate means Oakland's basically not stopping anybody, and Tampa Bay knows it. Every runner who reaches base tonight has the 90 feet to second essentially open, and that's how a couple of singles turns into multiple runs instead of one.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 3 bases
cut_listBAL tonight
Gunnar Henderson
Still hitting 1st for BAL — 0.678 OPS, 0.213 AVG from the 1-hole.
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
first_inningBAL @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pick'em pricing on the first — -115 either way — is the market telling you exactly what I see: Rogers has been close to automatic early this year, Kremer's been the opposite, and neither side's willing to lean hard into stretching Minnesota's ten-game scoreless streak against a split that lopsided on the mound. I'd treat the first inning as a coin flip and save my real conviction for after both lineups have turned the order over once.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
first_inningHOU @ SF
HOU have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
The board's leaning the other way here, and slightly — Over's the shorter price at -115 to -110, which tells me the market thinks Houston's drought is closer to snapping than extending. A cold streak this long from a whole lineup is usually nearer its end than its middle. If they push a run across early, it changes the whole complexion of the game for San Francisco's starter.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
regression_watchPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies are 20-11 in one-run games (.645 win%)
Philadelphia's 20-11 in one-run games is a .645 win rate, and that's about as unsustainable as these splits get — mostly variance, and it tends to come back to earth. I'd treat their overall record as flattering them a little more than they deserve right now.
regression_tomorrowBAL @ MIN
Brandon Young: 3.43 ERA vs 4.29 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 41% is a real outlier and doesn't square with a 3.43 ERA — the average allowed lines up fine with expectations, so this isn't about balls finding holes, it's about the quality of contact underneath. Even with less than a run separating his ERA from his expected number, allowing that much hard contact while running below expected is living closer to the edge than the ERA lets on. Against Minnesota tomorrow, that hard-contact rate is the number I'd watch catching up with him first.
beneficiaryPHI @ STL
Ramon Urias (3B) is out for STL — Cesar Prieto starts in his place tonight
Prieto's in at third for St. Louis with Urias out, but hitting ninth tells you what this is — a hole getting filled, not a lineup built around him. Put the ball in play, turn it over to the top, nothing more expected of him tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
beneficiaryBOS @ TOR
Jarren Duran (.628 vs RHP) replaces Roman Anthony at LF tonight
Duran's in left and hitting seventh with Anthony's finger issue five days old now — right behind the heart of the order, so he's set up to cash in on whatever traffic the middle of the lineup leaves him against a righty. Every at-bat in left tonight runs through him instead.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
beneficiaryCOL @ ARI
Max Kepler (.596 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
This only came together today, so Arizona's filling a hole on short notice rather than working off a settled plan. Kepler's in left and batting seventh against a righty tonight, in a matchup that actually sits below his season number — reads like a bench move, not a weapon being deployed.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
beneficiaryBOS @ TOR
Josh Smith (.646 vs RHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight
Smith takes over second and hits eighth with Sosa's wrist keeping him out over a week now — a clean handoff of the matchup against a right-hander to the better bat. Quiet lineup spot, but real at-bats that would've gone somewhere else tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
regression_watchBAL @ MIN
Baltimore Orioles are 10-18 in one-run games (.357 win%)
Baltimore's sitting at .357 in one-run games, and that's the kind of split that doesn't usually hold — high variance, and it tends to crawl back toward .500. Their overall record is probably underselling how good this team actually is.
cut_listNYM tonight
Marcus Semien
Still hitting 6th for NYM — 0.636 OPS, 0.213 AVG from the 6-hole.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ ARI
Michael Soroka
Streamer vs COL — 4 xERA · 8.7 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP.
fantasy_pickupsBOS @ TOR
Sonny Gray
Streamer vs TOR — 3.7 xERA · 8 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.
first_inningTEX @ LAA
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Both starters have been tough to square up early, .200 and .247 against, but neither's airtight — both have already given up four homers apiece in the first inning this year. That's quiet-until-it-isn't stuff, and it matches a Texas lineup that's scored in the first just once in ten tries, which is why I'd side with the Under at -125 over paying -105 for the Over. Anything that does score tonight is more likely to come in one swing than a string of singles.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
return_watchTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Listed back 8/18 (60-Day-IL, knee) — 2.04 ERA this season.
first_inningCOL @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Both starters have actually been shaky early this year — Soroka's sitting at a 6.00 first-inning ERA, Hughes worse at 7.20 — and on paper that looks like the night Arizona finally breaks its quiet streak at the plate. The board still leans Under at -120 anyway, and Arizona's own results back it up with just one first-inning run in their last ten games. When the pitching says one thing and both the recent history and the number say another, I trust the offense's approach over the arms on the mound.
P flagged team scored 4 in the 1st
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/20 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.

Graded results

Games

L
Red Sox ML -154
MLB · 1-2
L
Braves ML -140
MLB · 8-5
L
Orioles ML -103
MLB · 5-9
L
Cardinals ML +108
MLB · 6-5
L
Brewers ML -121
MLB · 2-3
L
Rockies +1.5 -114
MLB · 0-9
W
Astros ML -140
MLB · 6-3
W
Rays ML -158
MLB · 10-6
W
Royals +1.5 +108
MLB · 5-6
W
Rangers ML -106
MLB · 4-1

Props

L
Alec Burleson · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Blade Tidwell · under
Astros @ Giants · Actual 6
W
Bryce Elder · under
Mets @ Braves · Actual 4
W
Bryson Stott · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 2
L
Caleb Durbin · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Casey Mize · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 5
W
Christian Scott · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 6
L
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Dean Kremer · under
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 7
W
Freddy Peralta · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 6
W
Hunter Dobbins · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 6
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 2
W
Jacob Lopez · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 5
L
Jameson Taillon · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
L
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Michael Soroka · under
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 13
W
Reid Detmers · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 3
L
Tarik Skubal · over
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 6
L
Taylor Trammell · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Trevor Rogers · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 4
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Willi Castro · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
W
Wyatt Langford · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0