Sports Picks Archive — Monday, August 10, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· -154

Monday night in Toronto, roof shut, seventy-two degrees and dead air — the kind of controlled environment where nothing hides. Boston limps in off two straight losses to the Athletics that snapped a nine-game winning streak, and the temptation is to call them due for a stumble. That's not what tonight is. Tonight is about the man Toronto is sending to the mound. Jameson Taillon has a 5.96 ERA and a 6.07 expected ERA sitting right behind it, which means there is no bad luck waiting to correct itself — he is being hit exactly as hard as the line suggests. Fifteen percent of the balls in play against him are barreled. His cutter is a batting practice pitch at this point, and his four-seamer isn't far behind. Left-handed hitters have posted a .916 OPS off him this season, and Boston sends Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran at that problem with two switch-hitters on top and bottom. Abreu in particular has been squaring everything up — 96 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks with three home runs in a week. Taillon hasn't finished the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, and he's given up fourteen earned runs across twelve and a third in that stretch. This is his second turn with a new club, still building back from a long layoff, and the Blue Jays will need their bullpen early — a bullpen that just shipped Lazaro Estrada out and ran three arms on back-to-back days over the weekend. Sonny Gray got beat up by this lineup in late July and his last three turns have been in the mid-fours, so I'm not pretending he's untouchable. But the sweeper is still the best pitch in this game by a distance — hitters miss it nearly half the time they offer at it — and the club he's facing is scuffling in a way that shows up everywhere you look. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .188 over the last week. George Springer is at .158. Nathan Lukes and Brett Bateman aren't clearing .230. There's a rookie catcher and a just-recalled infielder plugging holes in the bottom third. Boston has scored better than seven a game over their last ten and they're the deeper team in every phase tonight. Laying a buck fifty-four with the better arm and the hotter bats against a pitcher this exposed is the bet. Red Sox.

Jameson Taillon has a 5.96 ERA and a 6.07 expected ERA sitting right behind it, which means there is no bad luck waiting to correct itself — he is being hit exactly as hard as the line suggests. Fifteen percent of the balls in play against him are barreled. His cutter is a batting practice pitch at this point, and his four-seamer isn't far behind. Left-handed hitters have posted a .916 OPS off him this season, and Boston sends Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran at that problem with two switch-hitters on top and bottom. Abreu in particular has been squaring everything up — 96 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks with three home runs in a week. Taillon hasn't finished the fifth inning in any of his last three starts, and he's given up fourteen earned runs across twelve and a third in that stretch. This is his second turn with a new club, still building back from a long layoff, and the Blue Jays will need their bullpen early — a bullpen that just shipped Lazaro Estrada out and ran three arms on back-to-back days over the weekend.

Sonny Gray got beat up by this lineup in late July and his last three turns have been in the mid-fours, so I'm not pretending he's untouchable. But the sweeper is still the best pitch in this game by a distance — hitters miss it nearly half the time they offer at it — and the club he's facing is scuffling in a way that shows up everywhere you look. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting .188 over the last week. George Springer is at .158. Nathan Lukes and Brett Bateman aren't clearing .230. There's a rookie catcher and a just-recalled infielder plugging holes in the bottom third. Boston has scored better than seven a game over their last ten and they're the deeper team in every phase tonight. Laying a buck fifty-four with the better arm and the hotter bats against a pitcher this exposed is the bet. Red Sox.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mets· -140

Monday night in Atlanta, 87 degrees and the humidity sitting on the field like a wet towel, and the Braves come home off a Bronx trip that cost them a winning streak but not much else. The Mets roll in at 52-67, playing loose and free the way a team does when the standings stopped mattering in July, riding a road trip that has gone 5-1. Truist Park, first pitch 7:15, Bryce Elder against Christian Scott. Here's what I keep coming back to: this game gets decided after the starters leave, and only one side has an answer. Scott has the better arm on the night — a fastball at 95 with a sweeper that hitters wave at — but he has been built back slowly, and he has thrown past the fifth inning exactly once in his last six. That means four innings belong to a New York bullpen that just lost Devin Williams to the shoulder, shipped Curry back to Syracuse, and is patching the middle innings with a pitcher who was in Triple-A three days ago. Atlanta hands the ball to Lee, Dodd, Iglesias and Kinley, and none of them has been leaned on hard enough in the last three days to be compromised tonight. Elder is the softer half of the matchup — his swing-and-miss has fallen off badly, down to ten percent last time out, and when he gets hit he gets hit hard — but he draws a Mets order stacked with left-handed bats in Ewing, Benge, Young and Baty, which is the side of the platoon where he has lived all year. The rest is roster. Atlanta has Olson in the middle of a stretch where everything is leaving the bat at 93 and seven of them have left the yard in two weeks, Acuña doing damage again, Riley and Harris driving in runs. New York has been loud, but that noise came against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and this is the seventh game of a nine-game trip against a club that catches the ball — 56 errors to their 79 is a real gap over nine innings. I passed on the runline at plus money because Atlanta's wins have been coming by a run at a time, 2-1 and 4-2 and 4-1, and I do not need a margin. I need the last at-bat and the better back end of the bullpen, and the home team has both. **Braves ML -140.**

Here's what I keep coming back to: this game gets decided after the starters leave, and only one side has an answer. Scott has the better arm on the night — a fastball at 95 with a sweeper that hitters wave at — but he has been built back slowly, and he has thrown past the fifth inning exactly once in his last six. That means four innings belong to a New York bullpen that just lost Devin Williams to the shoulder, shipped Curry back to Syracuse, and is patching the middle innings with a pitcher who was in Triple-A three days ago. Atlanta hands the ball to Lee, Dodd, Iglesias and Kinley, and none of them has been leaned on hard enough in the last three days to be compromised tonight. Elder is the softer half of the matchup — his swing-and-miss has fallen off badly, down to ten percent last time out, and when he gets hit he gets hit hard — but he draws a Mets order stacked with left-handed bats in Ewing, Benge, Young and Baty, which is the side of the platoon where he has lived all year.

The rest is roster. Atlanta has Olson in the middle of a stretch where everything is leaving the bat at 93 and seven of them have left the yard in two weeks, Acuña doing damage again, Riley and Harris driving in runs. New York has been loud, but that noise came against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and this is the seventh game of a nine-game trip against a club that catches the ball — 56 errors to their 79 is a real gap over nine innings. I passed on the runline at plus money because Atlanta's wins have been coming by a run at a time, 2-1 and 4-2 and 4-1, and I do not need a margin. I need the last at-bat and the better back end of the bullpen, and the home team has both.

**Braves ML -140.**

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Twins· -103

Monday night at Target Field, and the trade deadline walks right back through the door. Dean Kremer takes the ball for Minnesota against the organization that developed him and dealt him a week ago, and the nine men waiting in the other dugout have watched every pitch he owns from the dugout rail. Two clubs at 58-61 and 57-61, both fighting for the same slice of Wild Card oxygen, and the board says take your pick — Baltimore -103, Minnesota -104. When the market calls a game even, the work is finding out whether it should be. I don't think it should be. Trevor Rogers is not the pitcher his season ERA suggests — he was buried by an 10.31 May and has been a different arm since, a 2.05 June and a 2.37 July, and over his last three trips he's gone nineteen innings with twenty-one strikeouts and not one walk. The expected numbers back the eye test rather than the box score. Kremer is trending the other direction, and it isn't subtle: fifteen earned runs in his last fifteen innings, and a swing-and-miss rate that has fallen off a cliff across five outings — thirty-one percent down to twelve. He's been particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats this year, and Baltimore rolls out Henderson, Holliday, Beavers and Cowser with a switch-hitter in Taveras behind them. That's the wrong lineup to face when your best pitch has stopped missing barrels. And those bats finally showed a pulse Sunday in Arlington — Alonso with a pair, Cowser and O'Neill over the wall, Mayo with three hits after a month of the whole club scraping for eleven runs. The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud. Minnesota is home, they've built an all-right-handed card against a left-hander who has surrendered ten home runs to that side this season, Royce Lewis has been the best hitter in this ballpark for two weeks, and Josh Bell is swinging like a man who found something. Baltimore's bullpen is the softer of the two units and Suarez and Wolfram both got dented this week. But the Twins have worked six games in seven days and leaned on the same arms two nights running, and I'll take the starter I trust at a price that treats this as a coin flip. Orioles moneyline at -103. If the pitching matchup is what I believe it is, that number should never have been even.

I don't think it should be. Trevor Rogers is not the pitcher his season ERA suggests — he was buried by an 10.31 May and has been a different arm since, a 2.05 June and a 2.37 July, and over his last three trips he's gone nineteen innings with twenty-one strikeouts and not one walk. The expected numbers back the eye test rather than the box score. Kremer is trending the other direction, and it isn't subtle: fifteen earned runs in his last fifteen innings, and a swing-and-miss rate that has fallen off a cliff across five outings — thirty-one percent down to twelve. He's been particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats this year, and Baltimore rolls out Henderson, Holliday, Beavers and Cowser with a switch-hitter in Taveras behind them. That's the wrong lineup to face when your best pitch has stopped missing barrels. And those bats finally showed a pulse Sunday in Arlington — Alonso with a pair, Cowser and O'Neill over the wall, Mayo with three hits after a month of the whole club scraping for eleven runs.

The case against me is real and I'll say it out loud. Minnesota is home, they've built an all-right-handed card against a left-hander who has surrendered ten home runs to that side this season, Royce Lewis has been the best hitter in this ballpark for two weeks, and Josh Bell is swinging like a man who found something. Baltimore's bullpen is the softer of the two units and Suarez and Wolfram both got dented this week. But the Twins have worked six games in seven days and leaned on the same arms two nights running, and I'll take the starter I trust at a price that treats this as a coin flip. Orioles moneyline at -103. If the pitching matchup is what I believe it is, that number should never have been even.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Phillies· +108

Ninety-six degrees in St. Louis, wind pushing out to center, and a Phillies club that just spent twelve innings clawing out a win yesterday afternoon before boarding a plane. Busch Stadium, first pitch 7:45, series opener between two clubs sitting at 5-5 over their last ten and headed in opposite emotional directions — Philadelphia chasing a Wild Card spot, St. Louis three and a half back with the season on the table. This is the kind of Monday night where the schedule does as much talking as the arms do. Look at the card Philadelphia sent out tonight. No Trea Turner. No Alec Bohm. Realmuto's on the bench with Garrett Stubbs behind the plate, and Stubbs hasn't found a hit in his last ten trips. What's left is seven left-handed bats stacked against Hunter Dobbins, a pitcher who has held lefties to a .217 average and a .623 OPS — the damage against him comes almost entirely from the right side, and there's barely a right side to speak of tonight. Dobbins has surrendered five earned runs across his last seventeen and a third. He's built up to six-plus innings the last two times out. That's a starter who's found something walking into a matchup that suits him. The other end is where this really tilts. Andrew Painter throws a four-seam fastball a third of the time and hitters are batting .367 against it — the splitter misses bats, the rest of it gets squared up, and he's averaging just over four innings a start. That hands the middle of this game to a Philadelphia bullpen that has thrown nearly fifteen innings in three days, lost Caleb Kilian to the injured list this morning, and has had Raley, Kerkering and Duran working back-to-back nights. Kerkering already gave three back yesterday. Meanwhile St. Louis is home, rested by comparison, running out a full lineup with Herrera and Burleson both hammering the ball, and a pen that's worked half the load. Getting plus money on the fresher side in a matchup that fits their starter is the whole ticket. Cardinals moneyline, +108.

Look at the card Philadelphia sent out tonight. No Trea Turner. No Alec Bohm. Realmuto's on the bench with Garrett Stubbs behind the plate, and Stubbs hasn't found a hit in his last ten trips. What's left is seven left-handed bats stacked against Hunter Dobbins, a pitcher who has held lefties to a .217 average and a .623 OPS — the damage against him comes almost entirely from the right side, and there's barely a right side to speak of tonight. Dobbins has surrendered five earned runs across his last seventeen and a third. He's built up to six-plus innings the last two times out. That's a starter who's found something walking into a matchup that suits him.

The other end is where this really tilts. Andrew Painter throws a four-seam fastball a third of the time and hitters are batting .367 against it — the splitter misses bats, the rest of it gets squared up, and he's averaging just over four innings a start. That hands the middle of this game to a Philadelphia bullpen that has thrown nearly fifteen innings in three days, lost Caleb Kilian to the injured list this morning, and has had Raley, Kerkering and Duran working back-to-back nights. Kerkering already gave three back yesterday. Meanwhile St. Louis is home, rested by comparison, running out a full lineup with Herrera and Burleson both hammering the ball, and a pen that's worked half the load. Getting plus money on the fresher side in a matchup that fits their starter is the whole ticket. Cardinals moneyline, +108.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -106

Late window in Anaheim, first pitch under a warm Southern California sky with the wind drifting out to center. The Rangers land here off a red-eye-adjacent trip from Arlington with their season still breathing — .500, an AL West nobody has claimed, a Wild Card spot sitting there for whoever wants it. The Angels stagger home from Miami having been outscored 19-3 across the last two days of that series. Two clubs, same first pitch, completely different Augusts. The bet is on the Angels' inability to put a run on the board. They've managed 2.4 a game over their last ten and the top of the order is where it dies — the leadoff man, the two-hole, the cleanup spot, all hitting under .150 across the last week between them. Tonight they run six right-handed bats at MacKenzie Gore, and right-handers have hit .217 with a .669 OPS off him this season. I know what the ledger says about the last time these two met — Gore got knocked around in Arlington in July. But four of the bats that did the damage aren't in this clubhouse anymore. Adell, Soler, O'Hoppe, Soriano — all shipped out at the deadline. That result belongs to a team that no longer exists. What exists now is a Gore who has thrown eighteen innings of three-run ball over three starts, six of them scoreless in his last time out, with an extra week of rest built in. Reid Detmers is the reason this is priced as a coin flip and I respect that — the strikeouts are real, the walks are gone, the slider is a legitimate out pitch. But his fastball and slider are each down more than a tick from where they lived a year ago, he has surrendered nine home runs across his last five starts, and the ball is going to carry tonight. He gets you five innings. That leaves four for a bullpen that just coughed up twelve earned runs in three days and lost another arm to the injured list this morning. Texas answers with a pen sitting at 3.24 on the year and a defense that has made twenty fewer errors. In a game that's going to be decided in the sixth, seventh and eighth, I want the side that has arms left. Rangers moneyline at -106 — a pick'em price on the team that actually has something to play for.

The bet is on the Angels' inability to put a run on the board. They've managed 2.4 a game over their last ten and the top of the order is where it dies — the leadoff man, the two-hole, the cleanup spot, all hitting under .150 across the last week between them. Tonight they run six right-handed bats at MacKenzie Gore, and right-handers have hit .217 with a .669 OPS off him this season. I know what the ledger says about the last time these two met — Gore got knocked around in Arlington in July. But four of the bats that did the damage aren't in this clubhouse anymore. Adell, Soler, O'Hoppe, Soriano — all shipped out at the deadline. That result belongs to a team that no longer exists. What exists now is a Gore who has thrown eighteen innings of three-run ball over three starts, six of them scoreless in his last time out, with an extra week of rest built in.

Reid Detmers is the reason this is priced as a coin flip and I respect that — the strikeouts are real, the walks are gone, the slider is a legitimate out pitch. But his fastball and slider are each down more than a tick from where they lived a year ago, he has surrendered nine home runs across his last five starts, and the ball is going to carry tonight. He gets you five innings. That leaves four for a bullpen that just coughed up twelve earned runs in three days and lost another arm to the injured list this morning. Texas answers with a pen sitting at 3.24 on the year and a defense that has made twenty fewer errors. In a game that's going to be decided in the sixth, seventh and eighth, I want the side that has arms left. Rangers moneyline at -106 — a pick'em price on the team that actually has something to play for.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Diamondbacks· -114

Roof closed, seventy-two degrees, and a Monday night in the desert that nobody circled on a calendar. Arizona just spent a weekend beating the Dodgers and taking a season series from them for the first time since 2018 — 136,000 people through the gates, a walk-off homer, an Eduardo Rodriguez masterpiece. Now the Rockies walk in at 46-72 with a rookie on the mound, and the market wants you to believe this is a formality. Colorado +1.5 at -114. Here's what I keep coming back to: Michael Soroka has not pitched a big-league inning since June 19. He's coming off the injured list tonight, built up on a rehab start where he threw 57 pitches, and nobody in that clubhouse is letting him past five innings. That means Torey Lovullo needs twelve outs from a bullpen that just emptied its best chambers — Taylor Clarke, Brandyn Garcia and Kevin Ginkel all threw on both Saturday and Sunday, Juan Morillo went Friday, Jonathan Loáisiga burned thirty pitches Sunday. The unit's 2.93 ERA is real, but you can't spend the same arm three days running. Ask a taxed pen to protect a two-run margin and you're asking for the one thing it can't reliably give. And Arizona has to score to get there. This is a .708 OPS club that's put up 4.5 a night over ten games, with Corbin Carroll at .175 over fifteen days, Ketel Marte at .160, Lars Nootbaar at .186, Nolan Arenado at .196 — four of the top six in a genuine collective freeze. Against them, Gabriel Hughes is a better pitcher than his 4.25 ERA says: a 2.42 xERA, a .242 opponent expected wOBA, a 3.6 percent barrel rate, one home run allowed in 29.2 innings, and five-plus frames in all five career starts. Soroka's numbers run the opposite way — 4.00 xERA, 8.6 percent barrels, .270 and four homers surrendered to left-handed hitters — and Colorado bats left-handed six times through this order, with Jake McCarthy carrying a 1.352 OPS over the last week. Ten meetings this season, six decided by a single run. Take the number.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Padres· -121

Late night at Petco, marine air rolling in off the bay, and the best record in baseball walks into a park that has been quietly strangling home runs all season. Milwaukee lands on the West Coast off a walk-off Sunday. San Diego is riding the hottest stretch its stars have put together all year. On paper it looks like a coin flip between a 74-win juggernaut and a wild card team playing its best baseball. It isn't. This game turns on the two men holding the ball. Logan Henderson is the reason I'm here. A 2.62 expected ERA, a .252 opponent expected wOBA, and a changeup that has hitters swinging through it forty percent of the time. His swing-and-miss rate has climbed across his last three turns — 38, 30, 34 — which tells me the stuff is sharpening, not fading. He won't finish what he starts; five innings is his ceiling right now and Pat Murphy has made it clear he wants Henderson emptying the tank rather than pacing himself. That's fine, because the handoff goes to a bullpen that has allowed four earned runs in twenty-eight innings over the last week, with Trevor Megill coming in on four and thirteen pitches the last two days. That's a rested closer behind a starter who misses bats. Casey Mize is the other half of the equation and the news there is not good. Every pitch in his arsenal is down roughly a full tick from last season — the four-seam, the sinker, the slider, the splitter. His whiff rate has fallen off a cliff in his last two starts, nine percent and then five, and he has given up ten earned runs in twelve and two-thirds innings across three outings, eight of them in a Padres debut he called embarrassing. Right-handed hitters have punished him at .257 with a .762 OPS all year, and Jackson Chourio is currently squaring up everything he sees — a 96.7 mph average exit velocity with six barrels in seventeen balls in play. Mize's splitter is a genuine problem for the five lefties Milwaukee runs out, and San Diego's bats are legitimately dangerous right now, so I'm not pretending this is a lock. But at a shade over even money I'll take the better starter, the better bullpen, and the pitcher-friendly ballpark. Brewers moneyline at minus 121.

Logan Henderson is the reason I'm here. A 2.62 expected ERA, a .252 opponent expected wOBA, and a changeup that has hitters swinging through it forty percent of the time. His swing-and-miss rate has climbed across his last three turns — 38, 30, 34 — which tells me the stuff is sharpening, not fading. He won't finish what he starts; five innings is his ceiling right now and Pat Murphy has made it clear he wants Henderson emptying the tank rather than pacing himself. That's fine, because the handoff goes to a bullpen that has allowed four earned runs in twenty-eight innings over the last week, with Trevor Megill coming in on four and thirteen pitches the last two days. That's a rested closer behind a starter who misses bats.

Casey Mize is the other half of the equation and the news there is not good. Every pitch in his arsenal is down roughly a full tick from last season — the four-seam, the sinker, the slider, the splitter. His whiff rate has fallen off a cliff in his last two starts, nine percent and then five, and he has given up ten earned runs in twelve and two-thirds innings across three outings, eight of them in a Padres debut he called embarrassing. Right-handed hitters have punished him at .257 with a .762 OPS all year, and Jackson Chourio is currently squaring up everything he sees — a 96.7 mph average exit velocity with six barrels in seventeen balls in play. Mize's splitter is a genuine problem for the five lefties Milwaukee runs out, and San Diego's bats are legitimately dangerous right now, so I'm not pretending this is a lock. But at a shade over even money I'll take the better starter, the better bullpen, and the pitcher-friendly ballpark. Brewers moneyline at minus 121.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -158

Late night in West Sacramento, 93 degrees and the wind pushing out to center, and the two teams walking into Sutter Health Park are headed in opposite directions on the same road. Tampa Bay's come west and swept everything in its path — Colorado, then Seattle, three straight one-run-flavored wins where the bullpen slammed the door every time. The Athletics finally found air in Boston after a nine-game skid, took two of three, and flew home feeling like a ballclub again. Somebody's momentum is about to get corrected. Both starters tonight are pitching better than their ERAs say and worse than their stuff says. Peralta's been shelled in his last three — sixteen earned in thirteen innings — and the homers keep coming off left-handed bats, which is exactly what Sacramento is going to send at him. Lopez has been genuinely sharp since coming back, twenty-one strikeouts against three earned in three starts, but right-handed hitters have owned him all year and Kevin Cash stacked the card accordingly: Díaz, Caminero, Vilade, DeLuca, Fortes, Williams. Neither guy is finishing the fifth. That's the tell. This game gets decided by the eight or nine arms that follow, and there the gap is a canyon — Tampa's pen has been near-unhittable with Baker sitting on twenty-three consecutive converted saves, while Sacramento's has been leaking runs by the bucket for a week with its best reliever already stretched across back-to-back days. Then there's the part nobody prices properly: Tampa runs, and Sacramento can't stop it. Simpson is scalding hot and stealing bases at will, and the Rays put pressure on every inning they get a man aboard — that's how you win 2-1 and 3-2 and 4-1 on the road three nights running. Which is also why I'm not touching the runline. This club wins tight, not pretty. The risk is real and it's early: if Peralta hands over four runs in three innings in a hot ballpark, the story writes itself the other way. But I'll pay the price for the better team, the better bullpen, and the ballclub that manufactures runs when the bats go quiet. **The Pick: Rays ML -158**

Both starters tonight are pitching better than their ERAs say and worse than their stuff says. Peralta's been shelled in his last three — sixteen earned in thirteen innings — and the homers keep coming off left-handed bats, which is exactly what Sacramento is going to send at him. Lopez has been genuinely sharp since coming back, twenty-one strikeouts against three earned in three starts, but right-handed hitters have owned him all year and Kevin Cash stacked the card accordingly: Díaz, Caminero, Vilade, DeLuca, Fortes, Williams. Neither guy is finishing the fifth. That's the tell. This game gets decided by the eight or nine arms that follow, and there the gap is a canyon — Tampa's pen has been near-unhittable with Baker sitting on twenty-three consecutive converted saves, while Sacramento's has been leaking runs by the bucket for a week with its best reliever already stretched across back-to-back days.

Then there's the part nobody prices properly: Tampa runs, and Sacramento can't stop it. Simpson is scalding hot and stealing bases at will, and the Rays put pressure on every inning they get a man aboard — that's how you win 2-1 and 3-2 and 4-1 on the road three nights running. Which is also why I'm not touching the runline. This club wins tight, not pretty. The risk is real and it's early: if Peralta hands over four runs in three innings in a hot ballpark, the story writes itself the other way. But I'll pay the price for the better team, the better bullpen, and the ballclub that manufactures runs when the bats go quiet.

**The Pick: Rays ML -158**

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -140

Cool night by the bay, first pitch just before ten Eastern, and the fog is already sitting over the cove at Oracle. Houston flies in off a weekend in San Diego that went sideways — three homers off Javier's night alone — and San Francisco walks in having dropped seven of nine, twenty games under water for the first time all year. Two teams that just got their teeth kicked in. Only one of them has the roster to do something about it tonight. The Giants can't score. Two point eight runs a game over their last ten, and that's not a slump so much as a subtraction problem — Arraez to Philadelphia, Ramos to Boston, and what's left behind Jung Hoo Lee and Rafael Devers is Eldridge at .184 over two weeks, McCray three-for-thirty with the softest contact in the lineup, Koss at .162. Six of the nine bat left-handed, and Wesneski is holding lefties to .214 with a .527 on-base-plus-slugging and not a single home run allowed to that side. His expected numbers say he's been walking a tightrope, and maybe he is, but he's walking it against the wrong lineup for them and inside a park that eats fly balls for a living. Add the six career games against this franchise with a .212 mark against and I like where he's standing. The other side of it is the fastball. Tidwell throws it 95.8 and nobody has swung through it — not once, over a hundred of them, with an expected weighted on-base near .450 when it's in the zone. He gets outs with the sweeper and the slider; the heater is a batting-practice pitch with velocity on it. Houston sends six right-handed bats at him with Altuve at .391 the past week, Cam Smith at .429 with two homers, and Walker's exit velocity sitting at 93. Both starters are on short leashes — Wesneski is two starts removed from Tommy John, Tidwell has seventeen innings on his ledger — so this gets handed to the relievers by the sixth, and that's the whole ballgame. Houston's pen has given up five earned runs in a week with Hader, Abreu, and King all rested. San Francisco's is at 4.76 with Hentges and Smith already up two days running. Oracle keeps this tight and low, which is why I'm not laying the run and a half. Astros on the moneyline at minus one-forty. They only need four.

The Giants can't score. Two point eight runs a game over their last ten, and that's not a slump so much as a subtraction problem — Arraez to Philadelphia, Ramos to Boston, and what's left behind Jung Hoo Lee and Rafael Devers is Eldridge at .184 over two weeks, McCray three-for-thirty with the softest contact in the lineup, Koss at .162. Six of the nine bat left-handed, and Wesneski is holding lefties to .214 with a .527 on-base-plus-slugging and not a single home run allowed to that side. His expected numbers say he's been walking a tightrope, and maybe he is, but he's walking it against the wrong lineup for them and inside a park that eats fly balls for a living. Add the six career games against this franchise with a .212 mark against and I like where he's standing.

The other side of it is the fastball. Tidwell throws it 95.8 and nobody has swung through it — not once, over a hundred of them, with an expected weighted on-base near .450 when it's in the zone. He gets outs with the sweeper and the slider; the heater is a batting-practice pitch with velocity on it. Houston sends six right-handed bats at him with Altuve at .391 the past week, Cam Smith at .429 with two homers, and Walker's exit velocity sitting at 93. Both starters are on short leashes — Wesneski is two starts removed from Tommy John, Tidwell has seventeen innings on his ledger — so this gets handed to the relievers by the sixth, and that's the whole ballgame. Houston's pen has given up five earned runs in a week with Hader, Abreu, and King all rested. San Francisco's is at 4.76 with Hentges and Smith already up two days running. Oracle keeps this tight and low, which is why I'm not laying the run and a half. Astros on the moneyline at minus one-forty. They only need four.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· +108

Ten-ten at Chavez Ravine, marine layer settling in, and the best left-hander in baseball is making his first start on his new mound. Everybody in this building is here to watch Tarik Skubal put a hurting on a 49-70 ballclub. That's exactly why I'm on the other side of the number. Understand what -1.5 at -130 is asking you to believe. It's asking you to lay real juice on a team winning by two or more, and even the true monsters — the ones you'd lay three hundred cents on the dollar for — only get there about half the time. Baseball doesn't care that one roster costs four hundred million and the other one is playing out the string. This is a one-run sport. And the club being asked to blow a game open has scored three and a half a night over its last ten, with Betts homerless in his last fifteen days, Muncy hitting .158, Edman at .174, Freeman without a ball over the fence in two weeks, and Tucker — the guy who tripled and homered in the two games before this — nowhere on tonight's card. You don't cover a run and a half with Ohtani and Andy Pages carrying nine spots by themselves. Noah Cameron gets treated like a throw-in here and he shouldn't be. He's thrown sixteen innings of one-run ball this month, and his own platoon numbers say left-handed bats don't back him off — which matters when Los Angeles is running four lefties out there. Skubal will do his damage, six innings, maybe a touch more, and Roberts has said out loud he's being careful with him. Then the door opens on a bullpen that lost Treinen to the injured list, cut Jonathan Hernandez loose today, sent Hurt down, and hands the ninth to an Edwin Diaz who has blown two saves in three days. Kansas City's own pen is the way this ticket burns — Erceg and Lange can turn a one-run hole into four in a hurry, and I've got my eyes open about it. But I'm not asking the Royals to win. I'm asking them to lose by one, and I'm getting paid a premium to ask. **Royals +1.5 (+108)**

Permanent matchup analysis →

Player props

GARY'S PICK

JAMESON TAILLONPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· -125

Taillon has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts — three against Houston, seven against Pittsburgh, four against Detroit — carrying a 10.22 ERA over that stretch. His expected ERA for the season, 6.07, sits right alongside his actual 5.96, which means the results aren't unlucky, they're earned. Fifteen percent of the contact against him is barreled. Now he runs into a Red Sox lineup that's scored better than seven runs a game over its last ten, with Abreu, Yoshida, and Durbin all hitting well above their seasonal norms right now. Three straight starts have cleared this number comfortably. I don't see tonight being the exception.

THE LONG SHOT

WILYER ABREUHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +308

Nobody in this lineup is seeing the ball better than Wilyer Abreu right now. Three homers and nine RBI in his last seven games, a .438 average, and an average exit velocity of 96.3 miles an hour with five barrels on twenty balls in play — a twenty-five percent barrel rate, which is real contact quality, not an average propped up by bloopers. He's doing it while chasing only about a quarter of pitches outside the zone, so this isn't undisciplined hacking either. The pitcher on the other side is Jameson Taillon, whose cutter is getting hit at a .763 expected wOBA and who's allowing hard contact on almost forty percent of balls in play. Taillon has given up a home run in five of his last six starts. Abreu has gone deep in four of his last fifteen games, and the pace over the last week is even hotter than that. At plus-three-hundred for one ball to leave the yard against a pitcher this hittable, I like the number.

GARY'S PICK

CALEB DURBINHITS OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -200

Durbin is hitting .367 over his last fifteen games and .381 over his last seven, with nine RBI in that week alone. He's got a hit in eleven of his last fifteen games, and he's doing it against a pitcher allowing a .371 expected weighted on-base average who's given up at least five hits in five of his last six outings. This isn't a power bat forcing the issue — 84 mph average exit velocity, one barrel on twenty-two balls in play — it's a contact hitter squaring the ball up consistently and putting it in play against a rotation arm who can't keep hitters off it. Minus-two hundred is a real number to lay, but with him getting a hit in roughly three of every four games right now, it's still the right side.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN SCOTTK'S OVER 5.5

MLBNew York Mets· -112

Christian Scott has already seen this Braves lineup twice this year, and both times the strikeout total cleared tonight's number with room to spare — seven in four innings back on July 3rd, seven again in six innings on the 29th. The stuff that did it hasn't gone anywhere. His fastball still sits at 95 with a 28.6 percent whiff rate, the sweeper next to it gets swung through nearly a third of the time, and his swinging-strike rate hasn't had an off night in five starts running — 23, 30, 28, 25, 27 percent, one after another. He's sitting on over eleven strikeouts per nine for the season, and he doesn't need length to get there. His shortest outing of the stretch, three and two-thirds innings against Milwaukee, still got him to six strikeouts, and the next one after that, four innings against this same Braves lineup, got him to seven. Riley is swinging through four of every ten cuts he's taking right now, and Jarvis is chasing outside the zone on almost half his swings. Even with this lineup running hot on the scoreboard, there are holes in it that Scott's stuff was built to find. **Christian Scott Over 5.5 strikeouts.**

GARY'S PICK

BRYCE ELDERK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· -120

Bryce Elder's last start looked great on the scoreboard — one hit in seven innings against Miami — but look at how he got there: a 10 percent swinging-strike rate, the lowest of the stretch, and the start before that wasn't much better at 16. Back-to-back outings where he wasn't missing bats, he was getting outs on quiet contact and the ball finding gloves. His two best swing-and-miss pitches, a slider and a cutter, get thrown a combined 40 percent of the time; the pitch he leans on most, a sinker at 28 percent usage, gets swung through under one time in ten. That's not an arsenal built around missing bats, and lately hitters have been finding more of the ball than his earned run average lets on, with a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate allowed to go with it. He's come in under this number in six of his last eight starts. New York's order doesn't chase much from this staff either — Semien under 15 percent, Ewing and Young both right around 20 — and a pitcher who already isn't missing bats has even less margin against hitters who make him throw it in the zone. **Bryce Elder Under 4.5 strikeouts.**

GARY'S PICK

TREVOR ROGERSK'S OVER 4.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· -130

Rogers has punched out twenty-one hitters across his last three starts without issuing a single walk — a pace that alone clears this number in two of those three outings. His whiff rate has settled into the high-20s the last few turns, up from the low-20s back in early July, and he's gone over four and a half strikeouts in six of his last eight starts. Minnesota doesn't have a single true left-handed bat in tonight's order — Bell, Lee and Caratini all switch-hit, everyone else bats right — and his strikeout stuff has traveled with him against both sides all summer. The recent form says this is the version of Rogers still on the mound tonight.

GARY'S PICK

DEAN KREMERK'S UNDER 5.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -143

Kremer's swing-and-miss rate has fallen off a cliff start to start over his last five turns — thirty-one percent down to twenty-nine, twenty-five, nineteen, and twelve in his last outing. That's not noise, that's a pitcher whose stuff hitters have stopped chasing, and it's showing up in the results: fifteen earned runs across his last fifteen innings. He's gone under this number in six of his last eight starts, and tonight he's doing it in his first look at the lineup that knows him best, the one that developed him and watched every one of these pitches from the dugout before the trade. When swing-and-miss disappears this fast, the strikeouts go with it.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER O'NEILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +480

O'Neill has three home runs in his last fourteen at-bats. Five for fourteen with three leaving the yard and an OPS over 1.500 across his last week — numbers that don't need rounding to sound absurd. He's got four homers in his last fifteen games, and the contact quality backs it up, a twenty percent barrel rate on the balls he's put in play recently. Tonight's pitcher has served up seven home runs across three of his last six turns. At plus-four-eighty, I only need this to happen every so often for it to pay, and O'Neill is doing it a lot more than every so often right now.

GARY'S PICK

HUNTER DOBBINSK'S OVER 3.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +100

Eight starts this season, eight times clearing three and a half strikeouts. That's not a hot stretch, that's just what happens when Dobbins takes the mound, and nothing about tonight's matchup argues against it continuing. His splitter is missing bats at a 31 percent clip and his sweeper at 24 percent, two different bat-missing pitches to keep a lineup honest. Philadelphia strikes out more than anyone on this field, 8.6 times a game as a team, and seven of the nine bats in tonight's order hit left-handed — the same side Dobbins has held to a .217 average and a .623 OPS all year. He's also built back up: 13 strikeouts across his last three starts, none of them shorter than five innings. Even money for a number he's hit in every look he's had this season is a price I'll take.

GARY'S PICK

BRYSON STOTTH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· -127

Stott is hitting .405 with a 1.228 OPS over his last 15 games, as hot as anyone in either lineup, and he's batting second tonight, sandwiched between Schwarber and Harper in a spot that guarantees him looks all night. This one just needs any two of a hit, a run, or an RBI — a hitter running this hot in this kind of lineup spot, against a starter who's had trouble finishing innings clean, clears that bar more often than not. He's done it in eleven of his last 15 games already, before even accounting for how much better he's swinging it the last two weeks. I don't mind laying the price.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +290

Olson has been the best hitter in either dugout the last two weeks, and it isn't close. Seven home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, and the way he's squaring up the baseball backs it up — an average exit velocity near 93, with six barrels on eighteen balls in play. A third of everything he's put in play lately has been struck about as well as a ball can be struck. That isn't a hot bounce or a few lucky landing spots, that's a hitter locked in. Christian Scott gets the ball for the Mets tonight, and the shape of what he's allowed this year lines up with what Olson does for a living. Left-handed hitters have taken him deep six times in 184 at-bats; right-handers have managed one homer in 97. Same pitcher, same stuff, wildly different outcome depending which box the hitter stands in, and Olson stands in the one that's produced almost all of the damage. He's also still getting to know this Mets lineup after coming over mid-season, and I like leaning on the hitter who's shown me more the last two weeks than the pitcher has shown me in his time in New York.

THE LONG SHOT

ALEC BURLESONHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +503

Four home runs in his last seven games. That's not a hot streak, that's a different hitter than the one carrying a modest power line for most of the year — and the contact backs it up, 95.9 mph average exit velocity in that stretch with four barrels out of just seventeen balls in play. That's a guy squaring the ball up close to a quarter of the time he makes contact right now. Now look at who's on the mound. Andrew Painter is throwing his four-seamer a third of the time and hitters are batting .367 against it. Left-handed bats specifically have hit .302 with an .847 OPS and nine home runs off him this season, and he's averaging barely four innings a start over his last six turns — he's not around long enough to make an adjustment. Ninety-three degrees at Busch tonight with the wind blowing out to center isn't the kind of night that helps a pitcher trying to keep the ball in the yard. A lefty bat riding the best week of his season into a start from a pitcher who can't keep his fastball off the barrel. Plus-503 for one swing out of a hitter running this hot is the number I want.

THE LONG SHOT

IVAN HERRERAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +630

Ivan Herrera is the hottest bat in this lineup right now — a 1.044 OPS over his last seven games, ten hits in twenty-six at-bats, and the underlying contact matches the results: 95.1 mph average exit velocity with sixteen hard-hit balls in his last look. That's not an empty average, he's driving the baseball. The matchup lines up too. Painter's platoon splits actually run worse against right-handed bats than lefties by the rate that matters here — an .886 OPS and a home run about every eighteen at-bats faced from the right side, both worse than what he shows left-handers. He's letting hitters barrel him up at a 9 percent clip with hard contact allowed close to 35 percent of the time, and he hasn't worked deep enough into games lately to pitch around a bad night — four innings has been closer to his norm than six his last two turns. A hitter locked in like this against a starter this hittable from the right side, at plus-630 for a single swing, is a price worth taking.

THE LONG SHOT

CARSON BENGEHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +600

Benge is the best version of a hitter I can ask for right now — not just hot, but hot for reasons that hold up once you look at how he's getting there. A .409 average over his last week climbs to a 1.007 OPS across his last fifteen games, and the plate discipline backs it up: a whiff rate around seventeen percent and a chase rate around twenty-five, both among the best marks in this lineup. The quality of contact underneath those results is if anything a shade better than the numbers themselves, which tells me this isn't a hitter who's due to cool off. Elder has been tougher on left-handed hitters for average this season, but the raw home run count he's allowed to lefties isn't far off what he's given up to righties — eleven in 293 at-bats is a real number, not a footnote. Benge is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now, and I think that carries through tonight regardless of which side of the plate he's standing in.

GARY'S PICK

REID DETMERSPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 4.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· -105

Detmers has allowed four hits or fewer in each of his last three starts, and he's finished under four and a half in five of his last eight outings this season. His slider is missing bats at a 36 percent clip with a .191 expected weighted on-base against — that's the weapon keeping his hit totals down even in starts where the scoreboard looks rough. The damage he's taken this year has come mostly in the form of the long ball rather than a string of singles and doubles — his last start against Baltimore is the pattern exactly: four hits allowed, two of them left the yard. I like the under here even near even money, because the profile supports it independent of how many runs actually cross the plate.

GARY'S PICK

WYATT LANGFORDHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +155

Langford is 2-for-his-last-18 with a .500 OPS over the last week, and the contact quality has faded right along with the results — average exit velocity down to 85.9 miles an hour with zero barrels on fifteen balls in play, and he's chasing and whiffing more than he was when he was right. He's a right-handed bat, and right-handers have hit just .216 against Detmers this season. None of that points toward a bounce-back night at the plate. The board still has him priced like a hitter running something closer to his season norm, and I don't think that's who's stepping in the box tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSE SIRIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +505

Siri has two home runs in his last week on just thirteen at-bats — that's a hot power stretch, not a fluke swing. He's a right-handed bat against a left-hander in Gore, and Gore's home run rate against right-handers is actually higher than what he allows to lefties — fourteen home runs surrendered to righties this season against just two to lefties. The wind is blowing out to center tonight, and Siri's bat is already working. This is a swing-for-value prop and I'm treating it as one, but the matchup and his current form line up well enough to take a shot at plus-500.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL SOROKAPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +105

Soroka hasn't thrown a big-league pitch since June 19th, a start that ended after a single inning when his glute gave out. Since then it's been one rehab outing to get him cleared, and tonight he's back in a real game. Nobody in that Arizona clubhouse is scripting a deep leash for a pitcher two months removed from a muscle injury on one tune-up appearance — the smart, and likely, move is to pull him at the first real sign of trouble, or on a strict pitch count regardless of how he's throwing. The 7-of-8 trend on his outs total belongs to the pitcher he was in May and June, stretched out and starting every fifth day. Tonight is a different pitcher in a different situation. Under 14.5 outs.

GARY'S PICK

WILLI CASTROH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +133

Willi Castro is running a 1.162 OPS over his last fifteen games with four home runs out of the seven-hole, production nobody plans a pitching approach around from that lineup spot. He's combined for two or more hits, runs, and RBI in twelve of those fifteen games. Tonight he faces a pitcher making his first start in nearly two months off a single rehab outing — whatever Soroka has left after that layoff hasn't been tested against a real lineup yet, and Castro is the hottest bat in the one he's about to see. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI.

GARY'S PICK

CASEY MIZEPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 4.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· -116

Every pitch in Casey Mize's arsenal has lost a tick since last season — the four-seam, the sinker, the slider, the splitter, all of it down from where it sat in 2025. It shows up first in the swing-and-miss column: his whiff rate has cratered to nine percent and then five percent his last two times out, which means hitters aren't missing him, they're finding him. Five days ago in his Padres debut he gave up nine hits and eight earned runs in three and a third innings. He walks into a home start tonight against a Brewers lineup that's carried the third-best record in baseball since the All-Star break, with Jackson Chourio squaring up balls at 96.7 miles an hour lately. Petco's marine air holds some fly balls in the yard, but it won't turn hard contact into outs. I'll take the over on hits allowed.

GARY'S PICK

JACKSON MERRILLRBI OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +220

Jackson Merrill has driven in fourteen runs over his last fifteen games — nearly one a night for two straight weeks — while hitting .357 with a 1.004 OPS in that stretch. He's batting fifth in a Padres order where Tatis and Machado are both raking near the top, which means he keeps getting chances with runners in front of him. The recent contact quality backs it up: 93.2 mph average exit velocity with four barrels in twenty-four balls in play. He's already driven in a run in ten of his last fifteen games, and this price is built like it happens about one time in three. I'll take the plus money on the over.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +464

I already like Jackson Chourio's total bases tonight, and the home run number by itself is too generous to leave alone. Four homers in his last fifteen games is better than a one-in-four clip, and this price is built like it happens less than one time in five. His recent contact backs it up — 96.7 mph average exit velocity with six barrels in his last seventeen balls in play, real game power, not empty hard contact. Casey Mize is throwing his four-seam and sinker both down a full tick from a year ago, and right-handed bats have already touched him for a .762 OPS this season. At plus-four-sixty, I'll take the swing.

GARY'S PICK

JACOB LOPEZK'S OVER 4.5

MLBOakland Athletics· +117

Forget the season-long line — it's dragged down by a lost stretch in May and a forty-day gap before Oakland stretched him back out as a starter. The pitcher on the mound tonight is the one from his last three turns: fifteen and a third innings, twenty-one strikeouts, three earned runs, with whiff rates in the high-20s and 30s every time out. Tampa's lineup gives him room to keep it up. Caminero is whiffing on 40 percent of his swings over the last two weeks even while hitting for power, and the bottom of the order doesn't foul off tough pitches for long. Lopez doesn't need a career night to clear five strikeouts. He needs to be the pitcher he's already been for three straight starts.

GARY'S PICK

FREDDY PERALTAPITCHER HITS ALLOWED OVER 5.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +120

The same stretch that has Peralta getting pulled early has hitters finding barrels against him — nine hits, six, eight, six, seven in five of his last six starts. The only quiet one was a walk-heavy three-hitter where he still couldn't finish the fifth inning, so even his good nights aren't clean. He's walking into the exact lineup built to extend that. Oakland stacks the top of its order with left-handed bats, the ones that have hit .279 with fifteen homers off him this year at nearly double his rate against right-handers, in a park that's playing hitter-friendly on a warm night. Getting plus money on the side that's hit in five of his last six starts is the number I want.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +188

Caminero's carrying a three-homer week into Sacramento on real contact, not luck — twelve hard-hit balls and four barrels in his last three weeks of at-bats, average exit velocity sitting at 95 miles an hour. He's as locked in as anyone in this lineup right now. Lopez has quietly pitched well this season, but right-handed hitters have found the one real hole in his game: eleven home runs allowed in 217 at-bats against righties, nearly double his rate against lefties. Caminero bats third, hits right-handed, and is red hot, in a park that plays small in the summer heat. One mistake pitch is the whole bet.

GARY'S PICK

CHRISTIAN WALKERHITS OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· -180

Walker's reached base with a hit in thirteen of his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty contact — ninety-three and a half miles an hour average exit velocity over that stretch, ten balls scalded. He's a right-handed bat walking into the one pitch in Tidwell's mix that hasn't missed a bat all season: a mid-nineties fastball thrown better than a third of the time with a whiff rate of zero across a hundred-plus looks, and an expected weighted on-base near .450 whenever it's in the zone. Walker doesn't need to solve the slider or the sweeper — those are the pitches Tidwell actually gets outs with. He needs one fastball to jump on, and he's going to see a few. Slugging .456 on contact that's finding grass more often than not right now, in a ballpark that only takes away the deep ones. I like Walker getting his hit tonight.

GARY'S PICK

BLADE TIDWELLK'S UNDER 3.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +113

Tidwell hasn't struck out four hitters in a start in eight tries, and the one data point we have at the actual big-league level backs it up exactly — three punchouts in five innings against Texas last week, which he called a career high. This reads like a leash, not a lack of stuff — his slider is missing half the bats that swing at it and the sweeper gets its own share of empty swings too. Tidwell said after that start he wished he could've gone longer because he felt like he hung the bullpen out to dry, which tells you the shorter outings are coming from the dugout's plan for him, not from getting hit around. Fewer innings means fewer chances at strikeouts, and the top of Houston's order isn't a swing-and-miss group to begin with — Altuve's whiff rate over the last two weeks is fourteen percent. A number that's held every time recently, still paying plus money tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

TAYLOR TRAMMELLHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +620

Trammell's put four home runs on the board over his last fifteen games, and the contact quality says this isn't a fluke — three barrels out of just fourteen balls in play, average exit velocity over ninety, and a chase rate under twenty percent, so he's not reaching for it. He's left-handed against a pitcher who's genuinely had trouble with that side: .333 with an .860 on-base-plus-slugging allowed to lefties, a home run already given up in thirty-three at-bats. And everybody in this lineup gets a crack at the same soft spot — Tidwell's fastball, thrown better than a third of the time, hasn't drawn a swing-and-miss all year. Oracle Park usually knocks the wind down and kills fly balls, but tonight it's blowing out toward center, which isn't the norm there. A hitter running hot with real exit-velocity numbers, a favorable matchup on paper, and the wind helping is worth a shot at plus-six-twenty.

GARY'S PICK

TARIK SKUBALK'S OVER 7.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· -113

Back on July 24, in a different uniform, Skubal took the mound against this same Royals lineup and struck out twelve of them in seven and a third innings. Nothing about that lineup gives me a reason to think that was a fluke — Caglianone's chasing forty-seven percent of pitches out of the zone, Jensen's whiffing at a forty-one percent clip lately, Loftin's barely squaring anything up at 73.2 mph average exit velocity. Skubal's punched out twenty-four hitters over his last twenty innings, and he's making his first start at his new home ballpark with every reason to put on a show. The strikeouts are the surest thing on this board tonight.

GARY'S PICK

JAC CAGLIANONEHITS OVER 0.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -137

Caglianone's hitting .478 over his last seven games, and two nights ago against the Cubs he went 4-for-4 with two home runs — the kind of week where a young hitter stops seeing spin and starts seeing softballs. He chases everything, forty-seven percent out of the zone the last two weeks, but right now that aggression is finding barrels instead of costing him at-bats: 92.5 mph average exit velocity, two barrels in his last twenty-five balls in play. Neither he nor the rest of the Royals lineup has any real track record against Skubal, so there's no history to lean on either way — just a bat that's currently the hottest thing on either roster. One hit is the ask tonight, and he's cleared that in ten of his last fifteen games.

Research

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BULLPENBOS @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 15.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto's top relief arms are running on fumes — Fisher and Estrada have worked both of the last two days, Rogers and Little aren't far behind, and Varland's the only real fresh arm in that pen. Seven of eight arms are carrying multi-day mileage into tonight. If Toronto's starter can't get through six, whoever comes in behind him has already been through the wringer this week.
TEAM RECORDMIL @ SD
Brewers 8-0 in Logan Henderson's last 8 starts
Eight starts, eight wins is a number I respect but don't fully trust — that's the whole Brewers roster getting credit for showing up, not something Henderson's doing with his arm alone. Still, a mark that clean rarely happens by accident this late in a season. I'd want to see how San Diego's actually playing before I lean on a streak like this one.
BULLPENPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Philadelphia's been burning through Duran, Raley and Kerkering in short bursts the last two days — quick, high-leverage work, not saved bullets. Kilian's barely been touched and is the freshest multi-inning arm they've got if this game runs long. Whoever starts for the Phillies needs to actually get through six, because this pen is thinner at the top than the raw innings number lets on.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ TOR
Red Sox 7-1 in Sonny Gray's last 8 starts
One loss in eight Gray starts is close to automatic, and results that lopsided over a real sample usually mean the whole roster's clicking, not just one arm carrying the load. I still weight this as team context more than a read on Gray himself. Boston travels well with this version of themselves — that's the part worth noting walking into Toronto.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ STL
Phillies 1-7 in Andrew Painter's last 8 starts
One win in Painter's last eight starts is a rough number for Philadelphia regardless of who's actually pitching well or poorly underneath it. That's a full team not coming together on his day, not one guy losing games by himself. It hasn't broken yet, and St. Louis doesn't hand out easy nights to teams stuck in a pattern like that.
TEAM RECORDBAL @ MIN
Orioles 7-1 in Trevor Rogers's last 8 starts
Baltimore's 7-1 when Rogers takes the ball, which tells me more about how complete this roster plays on his turn than it does about Rogers specifically. A stretch that strong repeating itself over and over stops looking like noise. Minnesota's up next, and that same group takes the field again tonight.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (bats L) hits 1st against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Lukes leads off tonight, and the version of him that shows up against right-handers — .766 — is the one that's carried his whole season, not the thin sample from the left side. He gets Gray fresh in the first and then again every time the lineup turns over.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ STL
Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Andrew Painter (RHP)
Burleson's hitting third with a .969 mark against right-handers behind him over a full season, and Painter's handing him exactly that look. That's the middle of the order getting the matchup it wants, with runners already on to make it count.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
STREAKTB @ OAK
TB have won 6 straight
6 wins in a row for TB, a +15 run margin across the streak — they come in 8-2 over their last 10.
P team won 10-6
PARK WEATHERBOS @ TOR
Wind blowing out 17 mph at Rogers Centre tonight
Seventeen out to right at Rogers Centre is about as strong as ballpark wind gets, turning warning-track fly balls into souvenirs, and the warm air only adds more carry on top of it. Both lineups are hitting into the same wind tonight, so with the total at 4.5, one mistake pitch in the air can do real damage to that number.
P final total 3 vs 4.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 11.08 ERA over his last 3 starts
Sixteen runs across three starts isn't one bad outing skewing the number — that's three separate beatings. His baserunner rate has climbed well past his own season pace too, which tells me he's lost the strike zone as much as he's lost luck. I've got no reason to think he steadies himself tonight against a lineup that can be patient.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Hayden Wesneski (RHP), batting 6th
Drew Gilbert's season line is dragged down by what he's done against lefties — strip those at-bats out and he's a real threat against right-handers like Wesneski tonight. Batting sixth, he's getting that matchup after Wesneski's already had to work through the top of the order.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ SD
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Brice Turang leading off means Casey Mize opens his night against the version of this lineup that gives him the most trouble, not one he can ease into. That matchup doesn't happen once — it recurs every time the order turns over, starting with the very first hitter he sees.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TEAM RECORDCOL @ ARI
Rockies 1-5 in Gabriel Hughes's last 6 starts
One win in Hughes's last six starts — that's not the exception right now, that's the standard. Whatever's going sideways for Colorado on his day hasn't found a way to break yet, including the one game that snapped it briefly. Arizona's next, and the Rockies bring that same unresolved stretch with them on the road.
HEAT CHECKPHI @ STL
Bryson Stott: 1.228 OPS in Last 15 Days
Stott's running a 1.228 OPS over his last 42 trips to the plate, and with only eight homers on the season, this looks like barrel control and timing, not a power spike. A clean single or double gets the job done against a total bases number set at 1.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ STL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Harper's hitting 1.005 against right-handers over 264 at-bats, and batting third means that matchup arrives early with the table already set. Dobbins throwing right-handed isn't hiding from Harper anywhere — that's the best version of him, not the tough one.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
TEAM RECORDTEX @ LAA
Angels 2-6 in Reid Detmers's last 8 starts
Two wins in eight Detmers starts is a pattern I'd flag more than trust blindly — that's a team result, and it's repeated regardless of opponent or ballpark, which is what makes it worth noting instead of dismissing as coincidence. Texas is on the road tonight, and that streak's still active.
PLATOON EDGEBOS @ TOR
Jesus Sanchez (bats L) hits 5th against Sonny Gray (RHP)
Sanchez batting fifth against Gray gets the righty-tested version of him — .806 over 200-plus at-bats, a lot more trustworthy than the 27-at-bat sample from the left side. He won't see Gray as often as the top of the order, but every look comes in an RBI spot.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ SF
Taylor Trammell (bats L) hits 5th against Blade Tidwell (RHP)
Taylor Trammell hits fifth tonight, right behind the heart of the order, so Blade Tidwell doesn't get a breather once he's through the big bats — this matchup is waiting one batter later. Trammell's whole game changes for the better against a right-hander, and that's exactly who's stepping in.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
HR THREATRays @ Athletics
Junior Caminero
Gary's Take Caminero's carrying the hottest bat on this entire board right now — three home runs in his last seven games, four in his last fifteen. What sells it for me is how he's getting there: four barreled balls out of twenty-one batted-ball events in that stretch, average exit velocity sitting at 95 miles an hour.
P 1 HR — 1-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ SF
Rafael Devers (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Rafael Devers's vs. Right line (.917 OPS, 298 AB) sits well above his .550 mark the other way (148 AB). Tonight's starter Hayden Wesneski throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATRays @ Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom
Gary's Take Soderstrom's the one Athletics bat doing real damage lately — three homers in his last fifteen games, two of them in the last week — and his average exit velocity over that stretch, 96.5 miles an hour, is the loudest number on either roster tonight. He's left-handed, and Freddy Peralta has had a real lefty problem all year: .840 OPS and fifteen home runs allowed in just 308 at-bats against them, nearly triple his rate against righties.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 2 TB
HR THREATMets @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson's a different hitter right now than his season averages suggest. Seven homers in his last fifteen games, six barrels in his last eighteen balls in play, 93 mph average exit velocity — that's a hitter squaring the ball up at an elite rate over a real sample, not a hot week padded by bloop hits.
P 0 HR — 1-for-5, 1 TB
HR THREATRed Sox @ Blue Jays
Wilyer Abreu
Gary's Take Abreu's barreling everything right now — three homers in his last seven games, a 1.584 OPS over that stretch, and the best exit velocity on this whole board behind it, 96 mph average with five barrels in his last twenty balls in play. That's not a hot streak riding seeing-eye singles, that's a bat finding the sweet spot over and over.
P 0 HR — 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ SD
Jackson Merrill: 1.004 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's OPS has jumped nearly 300 points over his last 15 days to 1.004, with 18 homers already this season. Tonight's 0.5 total-bases number looks conservative for how he's swinging it right now.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGETEX @ LAA
Justin Foscue (bats R) gets a LHP from the 6th spot
Reid Detmers throwing left-handed hands Justin Foscue exactly the look he's built for — this is the version of him that heats up against same-side pitching. Batting sixth, he still sees Detmers as the order turns over, so it's not a one-time look.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFTEX @ LAA
Wyatt Langford: .509 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Reid Detmers
Wyatt Langford's flattened out over the last two weeks, and tonight doesn't offer much relief — left-handers have given him trouble all season, and Detmers throws left-handed. When a cold stretch and a season-long weakness point the same direction, that's usually more than randomness.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 3 BB
BULLPENTB @ OAK
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 12.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Matz threw three innings in his outing this week, which usually means he's not an option again this soon. Wells and Legumina are the two names sitting freshest after single, low-pitch-count outings. Tampa only ran seven arms through this stretch and five already carry multi-day miles — if the starter gets in trouble early, the choices to cover it are thin.
HEAD-TO-HEADBAL @ MIN
Orioles are 4-1 vs Twins this season
Four-and-one in the season series sounds like a real edge until you remember that record traces back to which starters happened to draw which matchups, and that resets completely tonight. The one game that got out of hand — that 8-6 finale — was a slugfest, not a shutdown, so if anything it says both lineups have gotten to whatever arms they've faced. I wouldn't carry this into tonight's game at all.
COOLING OFFTEX @ LAA
Zach Neto: .408 OPS in L15 — draws LHP MacKenzie Gore
Zach Neto's been ice cold for two weeks, but tonight's actually his best matchup on the board — MacKenzie Gore throws left-handed, and lefties are where Neto's done his best hitting all year. If there's a night for him to snap out of it, this is the one.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
STARTER FORMBOS @ TOR
Jameson Taillon: 10.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
Taillon's last three starts are ugly on their own, but it's the shaky season line underneath that worries me more. His baserunner rate over this stretch has climbed past even his own rough season pace, so this isn't a couple of homers skewing a clean ledger — it's a bad patch on top of a bad year. Boston's lineup works counts, and that's not a good matchup for him tonight.
P 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
HR THREATPhillies @ Cardinals
Alec Burleson
Gary's Take Burleson's the hottest bat in this lineup right now — four homers in his last seven games, and Statcast says even that's underselling him, since his expected wOBA is running ahead of his actual number this season. He's squaring the ball up as hard as anyone on this roster, averaging just under 96 miles an hour on contact with four barrels in his last seventeen balls in play.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCOL @ ARI
Willi Castro: 1.162 OPS in Last 15 Days
Castro's at 1.162 over his last 37 plate appearances, and with thirteen homers already this season, the pop backing it up says this isn't empty contact. A 0.5 total bases number is about as low a bar as there is for a bat seeing it this well.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak (bats L) gets a RHP from the 5th spot
Moniak's hitting .940 against right-handers on 223 at-bats — real volume, not a hot streak — and batting fifth puts him right behind the middle of the order in a spot built to drive guys in. Soroka's giving him the look he's already proven he handles.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
STARTER FORMKC @ LAD
Noah Cameron: 0.39 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-three innings across three starts with one earned run and two dozen strikeouts is about as complete a stretch as a pitcher can put together — he's working deep and missing bats, not running a shiny ERA on soft contact. This is the arm dictating terms tonight, not the lineup across from him.
P 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
HR THREATOrioles @ Twins
Pete Alonso
Gary's Take Alonso's the best swing in this lineup card right now, and it isn't close. Four homers in his last fifteen games, two of them came last night in Arlington on a night he also drew two walks and scored three times, and the underlying contact backs it up — 94.7 average exit velocity over that stretch with six barrels logged on eighteen balls in play.
P 0 HR — 1-for-4, 1 TB
BATTER VS ARMNYM @ ATL
Francisco Lindor vs Bryce Elder: .462
Lindor's hit .462 off Bryce Elder with real pop mixed in, and he's swinging it well right now on top of that history. Elder's got to get through a hitter who's already hurt him and is playing some of his best baseball of the year.
P 3-for-5, 7 TB
COOLING OFFKC @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .469 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Noah Cameron
Tommy Edman's bat has gone cold over the last two weeks, and Noah Cameron's left-handed look is already the one split where Edman runs a touch below his own numbers. That's not a matchup that hands him an easy way back to form.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 1.76 ERA over his last 3 starts
Twenty-one strikeouts in three starts is the number that gets my attention — that's swings and misses, not soft contact finding gloves. Three earned runs allowed in that stretch means he hasn't been nibbling into trouble and escaping it, he's been in control the whole way through. Whatever clicked for him, it's real enough that Tampa Bay's going to have to earn every bit of contact it gets tonight.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
HR THREATRed Sox @ Blue Jays
Masataka Yoshida
Gary's Take Yoshida's the most disciplined bat in this lineup right now — thirteen hits in his last fifteen games, a .333 average, and when you look at what's behind it: 92.6 mph average exit velocity, a 13 percent whiff rate, chasing outside the zone only one time in five. He's not missing pitches to hit and he's not missing them when he swings.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
HEAT CHECKBAL @ MIN
Royce Lewis: 1.024 OPS in Last 15 Days
Lewis is running a 1.024 OPS over 51 plate appearances, the deepest sample in this group, and it's held up across a real mix of pitching. Thirteen homers already this year means he clears a 1.5 total bases number without needing his best swing.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 at Diamondbacks, Sat 8/15 at Giants (proj). 2.42 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFPHI @ STL
Jordan Walker: .585 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andrew Painter
Walker's at .585 over just 52 plate appearances, and even his supposedly tougher split against right-handers like Painter sits at .803 — that's not a weak side, that's a season average most guys would take. This looks like results lagging the contact, not a hitter who's lost something.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
STARTER FORMMIL @ SD
Casey Mize: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ten earned runs in under thirteen innings is a real departure from the season Mize built, and what stands out is he'd made his name all year on keeping runners off base — watching that rate climb this fast says the command isn't there right now. This reads like a good pitcher caught in a bad patch, and Milwaukee's lineup is walking into him at the worst point of his year so far.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
STREAKCOL @ ARI
ARI games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for ARI — their games are producing only 5.5 runs against numbers around 8.9. Tonight's number sits at 8.25.
P final total 9 vs 8.25
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 at Padres, Sat 8/15 at Dodgers (proj). 2.62 xERA this season.
STREAKTB @ OAK
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 4.3 runs a night against an average line of 8.3. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 16 vs 10.5
COOLING OFFCOL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll: .593 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Gabriel Hughes
Corbin Carroll's only a little cold relative to how strong his season's been, but the bigger factor tonight is the matchup — right-handed pitching has been a real weakness for him all year, and Gabriel Hughes throws right-handed. This one's more about the assignment than the last two weeks.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 vs Red Sox, Sun 8/16 vs Yankees (proj). 2.7 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFPHI @ STL
Brandon Marsh: .481 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hunter Dobbins
Marsh is at .481 over 53 plate appearances, but that's a small sample finding gloves instead of grass — his .794 mark against right-handers is well clear of his season average, the opposite of a split he's fighting. Dobbins gives him the exact look that's produced his best numbers all year.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Marcus Semien: .941 OPS in Last 15 Days
Semien's swing is climbing back — .941 over his last two weeks after running roughly three hundred points of OPS below that for a stretch. Fourteen homers on the season says the power never left, and a 0.5 total bases number is an easy clear for a bat finding its timing again.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ MIN
Austin Martin (bats R) draws Trevor Rogers (LHP), batting 1st
Martin's season line blends two different hitters, and facing a lefty in Trevor Rogers isolates the better half — .753 over 116 at-bats against left-handers. Leading off means he gets that look early, then again every time through the order.
P 4-for-5, 8 TB
TOMORROWCOL @ ARI
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.51 ERA vs 7.15 xERA
Sugano's hard-hit and barrel numbers are both flashing red, and a 4.51 ERA sitting 49 points of batting average below what that contact quality says it should be is the definition of getting away with it. That's balls finding gloves, not hitters missing barrels. He lines up against Arizona again tomorrow, and hard, well-struck contact against a lineup that punishes mistakes is a bigger threat to that ERA than anything in his results so far.
COOLING OFFMIL @ SD
Christian Yelich: .430 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Casey Mize
Christian Yelich's numbers against right-handers are basically in line with his season average, so Casey Mize isn't really the explanation for the cold stretch. This one reads like timing more than matchup — whether he's found his rhythm again matters more than who's on the mound tonight.
P 1-for-3, 4 TB
STARTER FORMBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 9.00 ERA over his last 3 starts
Nineteen hits in fifteen innings over his last three starts is more than a hit an inning, and fifteen earned runs in that same stretch means almost nobody's getting stranded once they're on. His season number was already below where a rotation arm wants to be, and this stretch has pushed well past it. A lineup that just puts the ball in play against him tonight doesn't need to do much else.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
HEAT CHECKCOL @ ARI
Geraldo Perdomo: .952 OPS in Last 15 Days
Geraldo Perdomo's riding a .952 OPS over his last 15 days, well clear of his .735 season mark, with 9 homers banked. The 1.5 total-bases line tonight is a reasonable ask given how he's been swinging it.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Carson Benge: 1.007 OPS in Last 15 Days
Benge is running a 1.007 OPS over 46 plate appearances, a long enough look to trust, and thirteen homers already this season back up the power. Coming off a .744 season mark, this is a swing seeing the ball deeper and squaring up more of it.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFHOU @ SF
Bryce Eldridge: .504 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Hayden Wesneski
Bryce Eldridge's .504 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .768 season mark, down 0.264. Tonight he draws RHP Hayden Wesneski — his stronger side: a .778 OPS vs RHP across 191 AB.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
COOLING OFFBAL @ MIN
Gunnar Henderson: .450 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dean Kremer
Henderson's cold two weeks — .450 over 44 plate appearances — lines up with a soft spot that's been soft all year: his .652 against right-handers over 326 at-bats already sits below his .678 season line. Kremer's the exact side of the plate where the production's been thinnest, not a get-right matchup.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
BATTER VS ARMTEX @ LAA
Reid Detmers vs Ezequiel Duran: 1-for-15, 7 K
Reid Detmers has had Ezequiel Duran's number from the jump — 1-for-15 with seven strikeouts, and not much loud contact even in that one hit. That's an arm dictating the at-bat before Duran ever digs in tonight.
P 1-for-5, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKBAL @ MIN
Tyler O'Neill: 1.205 OPS in Last 15 Days
O'Neill's swing is built for exactly this kind of burst — 1.205 over just 24 plate appearances, the shortest look in the group, but ten homers on the season says the power was always the plan. A 1.5 total bases number is right in his lane if he connects even once tonight.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BULLPENHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Houser threw 86 pitches over five innings in one outing — that's starter-length work out of a bullpen, and he's effectively off the board tonight no matter what else this pen has left. Seymour's carrying the next-heaviest load, while Smith, Hentges and Winn have the accumulated mileage from multiple outings and Foley's the only arm barely touched. San Francisco's got more usable relief than the innings total suggests, they just can't lean on their best two names against Houston.
HEAT CHECKBOS @ TOR
Caleb Durbin: .968 OPS in Last 15 Days
Durbin's at .968 over 49 plate appearances, and it's a smaller jump over his season mark than most of this group — that looks like a hitter building into form rather than catching a one-week heater. Eleven homers on the season clears a 0.5 total bases number with room to spare.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Jacob Lopez: 5.64 ERA vs 3.52 xERA
A hard-hit rate in the low 30s and a barrel rate under 5% are genuinely stingy — that's a pitcher who should be running an ERA close to 3.5, not near 5.6. Opponents are hitting almost 60 points higher than that contact quality supports, which reads like bad luck on balls in play more than bad stuff. The underlying package is sharper than the ERA on the page, and tonight looks like a fair spot for that gap to start closing.
P 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Royals, Sat 8/15 vs Brewers (proj). 2.99 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/10
Paul Skenes
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Marlins, Sun 8/16 vs Red Sox (proj). 3.01 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Kyle Harrison
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Padres, Sun 8/16 at Dodgers (proj). 3.01 xERA this season.
BULLPENTEX @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Kerry went 98 pitches over five-plus innings in relief this week — that's a starter's workload, and he's not an option again for a few days. Outside that one outlier, this pen's actually in good shape: Saucedo, Watson and Heineman are fresh off modest or light workloads, and even Weiman and Anderson's added mileage doesn't take them off the board. The middle of this bullpen is rested tonight — they just can't go back to Kerry to eat innings.
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .590 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Baldwin's at .590 over 56 plate appearances, but his .862 mark against right-handers over 223 at-bats is the best number in his whole profile, well above his season average. Scott puts him right back in the matchup his numbers say he should be thriving in.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
TWO STARTSTexas Rangers — week of 8/10
Cody Bradford
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Tue 8/11 at Angels, Sun 8/16 at Athletics (proj). 3.18 xERA this season.
CUT LISTHOU tonight
Hayden Wesneski
Starts tonight for HOU — 5.65 xERA behind a 3.86 ERA — the ERA is flattering him.
HEAT CHECKPHI @ STL
Bryce Harper: 1.086 OPS in Last 15 Days
Harper's adding a gear on top of an already .870 season mark — 1.086 over his last 49 plate appearances. Twenty-five homers by this point means a 1.5 total bases number is well within range even on a normal week, let alone this one.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Rumfield's .881 against right-handers over 286 at-bats is well ahead of what he's done against lefties, and hitting third against Soroka puts that track record in the highest-leverage spot in the lineup. That's volume, not a hot two weeks, backing tonight's matchup.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
Gabriel Hughes: 4.25 ERA vs 2.42 xERA
A 1.18 WHIP and a barrel rate under 4% are elite marks for limiting hard contact, which makes a 4.25 ERA look like the wrong read on this guy. Hitters are batting 50 points higher than that contact quality supports, and the strikeout rate backs up that he's missing barrels even when the results say otherwise. This is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests, and against Arizona tonight I'd expect that gap to close through improvement, not further damage.
P 4 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Astros, Sat 8/15 vs Rockies (proj). 3.3 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSSan Diego Padres — week of 8/10
Casey Mize
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Brewers, Sat 8/15 at Guardians (proj). 3.34 xERA this season.
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Michael Harris II: .644 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Christian Scott
Harris's dip to .644 is the mildest in this group, and it looks like exactly that — a quiet stretch, not a mechanical issue, since his .810 mark against right-handers is basically identical to his season number. Scott gives him the same handedness he's handled all season.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
BALLPARKCOL @ ARI
Michael Soroka owns a 2.05 ERA at Chase Field — 4.54 everywhere else
A 2.05 ERA at Chase Field against 4.54 everywhere else is a real split — forty-eight innings over nine starts is too big a sample to write off as a hot streak, and a .232 average against backs it up as more than luck. He's actually thrown more innings in this ballpark than everywhere else on his ledger combined. Whatever he's doing here looks repeatable, and Colorado's walking into it tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
COOLING OFFBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes: .481 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Sonny Gray
Lukes's cold two weeks — .481 over 50 plate appearances — is too small a window to erase what 230 at-bats against right-handers already proved: a .766 mark comfortably above his season average. Gray puts him right back on the side of the plate where he's done his best work all year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
COOLING OFFCOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield: .598 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Soroka
Rumfield's .598 over 48 plate appearances is thin next to his .881 mark against right-handers over 286 at-bats, the best number in his whole profile. Soroka's giving him the exact side of the plate that's carried his season.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Baldwin's .862 against right-handers over 223 at-bats is a real step up from his lefty numbers, and leading off means he gets Scott immediately, then again every turn through the order. That's the better half of his platoon split, right from the first pitch.
P 2-for-5, 3 TB
COOLING OFFCOL @ ARI
Troy Johnston: .292 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Soroka
Johnston's .292 over just 24 plate appearances is the smallest sample in this group, and his .794 mark against right-handers over 242 at-bats says the fuller picture is a lot friendlier. Soroka tonight gives him exactly that side of the plate.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKBOS @ TOR
Wilyer Abreu: .987 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (48 PA) he is at a .987 OPS, up 0.197 on his .790 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 1.5.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TOMORROWTB @ OAK
Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Nothing in Martinez's hard-hit or barrel numbers is out of the ordinary, which is what makes a 2.65 ERA running almost two runs better than his expected mark stand out. Opponents hitting 30-plus points below what the contact quality says they should is the tell that sequencing and timing are doing more work than anything repeatable. He's back out there against Oakland tomorrow, and I'd expect this one to drift toward the expected number before it holds where it's been.
PLATOON EDGENYM @ ATL
Jared Young (bats L) hits 5th against Bryce Elder (RHP)
Over 171 AB vs. Right, Jared Young owns a .795 OPS versus .619 in 27 AB the other way. He sees RHP Bryce Elder tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ MIN
Dylan Beavers (bats L) draws Dean Kremer (RHP), batting 5th
Dylan Beavers carries a .687 OPS vs. Right (161 AB) against .506 the other way (30 AB), and faces RHP Dean Kremer from the 5th spot — a split his blended season line may not reflect.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak: .276 AVG vs .227 xBA
Moniak's average and overall production are both running hot by close to the same margin, and that's not even 300 plate appearances yet — there's plenty of room left for it to move. Contact quality tends to win out over a full season, and it's usually the batting line that bends down to meet it.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
BULLPENBOS @ TOR
Boston Red Sox pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Burgos averaging three innings an outing across his last two appearances is bulk relief work, and that usage tends to catch up fast — same story with Bello's four-inning outing. But Guerrero, Morán, Whitlock and Chapman all threw a single inning at modest counts, which is about as fresh as a pen gets. Only one arm on this staff has multiple outings in the stretch — Boston's actually got more short-relief options walking into Toronto than the raw innings number suggests.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Jameson Taillon
Starts tonight for TOR — 6.07 xERA behind a 5.96 ERA.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/10
Michael Soroka
Listed back 8/10 (15-Day-IL, lower body) — 3.07 ERA this season.
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Chandler Simpson: .304 AVG vs .257 xBA
Chandler Simpson's been running well ahead of his actual contact quality all season — .304 against a .257 expected mark — and there's almost no power cushion underneath the average to soften the fall. Tonight's another night for that gap to close, and on him it shows up as outs on balls that used to find grass.
P 2-for-5, 2 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ TOR
Ceddanne Rafaela
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .787 OPS, bats 2nd.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ TOR
Wilyer Abreu
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .790 OPS, bats 3rd.
REGRESSIONKC @ LAD
Mookie Betts: .229 AVG vs .273 xBA
Mookie Betts is getting worse results than his contact deserves — a .229 average against a .273 expected mark — and gaps running this direction tend to close upward, not down. Tonight against Kansas City is as fair a stage as any for some of those hard-hit balls to finally land.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REPLACEMENTBOS @ TOR
Nathan Lukes (.766 vs RHP) replaces Addison Barger at RF tonight
Lukes isn't just borrowing a glove in right field — fourteen days into Barger's elbow issue, this looks like the settled arrangement, not a one-night fix. He inherits the leadoff spot too, which means the most plate appearances in the lineup tonight against a righty he's hit .766 against this year.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Freddy Peralta: 5.37 ERA vs 3.95 xERA
Peralta's hard-hit rate pushing 40% is the real issue here, even though the strikeout stuff still grades out well and hitters are running 34 points hotter than his expected mark suggests they should. That's bad luck stacking on top of already-elevated hard contact, not one clean explanation. There's swing-and-miss ability to lean on, but the contact quality keeps this from being a clean bounce-back case tonight.
P 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
REPLACEMENTKC @ LAD
Nick Loftin (.750 vs LHP) replaces Maikel Garcia at 3B tonight
Loftin just took over third and the leadoff spot yesterday, so this is still fresh, but his numbers against lefties sit well above his season line — exactly the matchup he's stepping into against Skubal. How he handles those early at-bats shapes how the rest of the order approaches the night.
P 2-for-2, 3 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTMIL @ SD
Luis Rengifo (.687 vs RHP) replaces Ramon Laureano at LF tonight
Two months at left field makes Rengifo the plan now, not a placeholder — sixth against a righty tonight, right where the order needs someone to keep turning over into more looks at Henderson late. His numbers against right-handers are well clear of his season line, exactly what that spot in the order needs.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
REPLACEMENTTB @ OAK
Ryan Vilade (.827 vs LHP) replaces Jake Fraley at RF tonight
Eight days in and Tampa's already trusting Vilade with the cleanup spot against a lefty — that's not fill-in usage. His track record against lefties is well ahead of his season number, so the run-production job tonight fits the hitter, not just the opening.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
PARK WEATHERKC @ LAD
Wind blowing out 10 mph at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium tonight
Warm night at Dodger Stadium with the wind blowing straight out to the deepest part of the yard — that's a carry setup for both lineups, not just the pull-side power. Good contact up the middle plays at 7.5, and a fly ball that usually gets run down in the gap has a real shot to land in the seats.
P final total 11 vs 7.5 (over lean)
PARK WEATHERPHI @ STL
96° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
Ninety-six degrees at Busch tonight, and thin air plus a breeze pushing out to center means fly balls that die on a cooler night find the seats instead. That favors anybody lifting the ball to the gaps on both sides, and it puts starters working up in the zone on notice.
P final total 11 vs 9 (over lean)
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ SD
San Diego Padres like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
San Diego runs regardless of who's catching, but Contreras has thrown out two of every five runners this year, and that doesn't change tonight. Expect the attempts to keep coming — just not all of them turning into runners in scoring position.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
REGRESSIONPHI @ STL
Andrew Painter: 6.48 ERA vs 5.15 xERA
This isn't purely bad luck for Painter — a 9% barrel rate is a real red flag, and hitters are actually outperforming even his elevated expected average by nearly 30 points. Both the contact quality and the results on top of it have been rough. There's some give-back coming since even a shaky underlying profile doesn't support a 6.48 ERA, but the barrel rate needs to tighten up before I trust the results turning consistently better.
P 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
REGRESSIONBAL @ MIN
Dean Kremer: 5.93 ERA vs 4.57 xERA
Nothing about Kremer's contact profile is extreme in either direction — average hard-hit rate, only a modestly elevated barrel rate — so the gap between his ERA and expected ERA reads more like a handful of costly innings than a pitcher getting hit hard every time out. Opponents are only 14 points over their expected average, a much smaller gap than the ERA alone suggests. The strikeout rate holding near 8.8 is the real positive hiding under an ugly number, and there's close to a full run of ERA sitting on the table once results start matching the process.
P 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
CUT LISTSD tonight
Jake Cronenworth
Still hitting 2nd for SD — 0.591 OPS, 0.216 AVG from the 2-hole.
PARK WEATHERHOU @ SF
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Ten out to center at Oracle isn't enough to turn routine outs into homers, but the ones that usually die on the track have a real shot to keep carrying tonight. Cooler air takes a little off it, so I'd expect doubles turning into homers more than easy outs vanishing — at 8.5, one flush swing to the gap moves that total.
P final total 9 vs 8.5 (over lean)
TOMORROWCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 4.6 ERA vs 6.14 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 38% and a touch of extra barrel rate don't match an ERA running a run and a half below his expected number. Opponents hitting 15 points under what they're expected to is a modest gap, not an extreme one, but the direction's the same — the process says he's allowing more than the results show. Against the White Sox tomorrow, I'd trust the harder contact over the ERA sitting on top of it.
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
TJ Rumfield: .295 AVG vs .256 xBA
Rumfield's gap between what he's hitting and what his contact says he should hit has held up over 464 plate appearances — a real season's worth of evidence, not a hot two weeks. That kind of gap has proven stubborn, but expected numbers built on contact quality tend to catch up eventually.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ TOR
Masataka Yoshida
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .746 OPS, bats 5th.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
Still hitting 2nd for TOR — 0.598 OPS, 0.214 AVG from the 2-hole.
TOMORROWTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.11 ERA vs 5.72 xERA
A barrel rate near 11% is a genuine problem, and opponents hitting close to what that contact quality suggests tells me this isn't bad luck piling onto good process — the process itself has warning signs. His expected ERA is still better than the 7.11 he's actually running, but neither number is one I'd feel good about heading into Texas tomorrow. Until that barrel rate comes down, I don't see a clean case for the ERA correcting either way.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ TOR
Caleb Durbin
Pickup vs Jameson Taillon (6.07 xERA) — .730 OPS, bats 6th.
REGRESSIONPHI @ STL
Luis Arraez: .320 AVG vs .284 xBA
Arraez is hitting .320 against a .284 expected average, and that gap has held across nearly 500 plate appearances — too big a sample to call it puff. The wOBA gap tracks right alongside it, spread evenly all season, not padded by one hot stretch. I'll trust the bat-to-ball feel here over the expected number catching up to him.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
COOLING OFFBAL @ MIN
Dylan Beavers: .472 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Dean Kremer
Dylan Beavers's .472 OPS over the last 15 days (38 PA) trails his .659 season mark, down 0.187. Tonight he draws RHP Dean Kremer — his stronger side: a .687 OPS vs RHP across 161 AB.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
CLOSER WATCHPHI @ STL
Riley O'Brien
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 29 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
CLOSER WATCHNYM @ ATL
Raisel Iglesias
Raisel Iglesias owns the ninth for the Braves — 24 saves this season (next closest: Robert Suarez with 4).
CLOSER WATCHBOS @ TOR
Aroldis Chapman
Aroldis Chapman owns the ninth for the Red Sox — 27 saves this season (next closest: Erik Miller with 4).
REGRESSIONBOS @ TOR
Ceddanne Rafaela: .284 AVG vs .250 xBA
Ceddanne Rafaela's .284 average comes against a .250 expected (xBA) on 471 plate appearances. His wOBA sits at .342 against a .288 expected (xwOBA). Statcast grades the quality of his contact rather than the results, and the expected marks sit below what he has actually posted.
P 2-for-3, 2 TB
SITUATIONALMIL @ SD
MIL has played 9 days running — SD rested yesterday
Nine days straight without a break shows up in the bullpen first — the relief arms that carried that workload are running low, and every trip back to that well late leaves fewer good options. San Diego sat yesterday and walks in with a full bullpen sheet and nothing off the table for their manager. That imbalance late is the part of this matchup I'm watching.
P flagged side lost 2-3
CUT LISTOAK tonight
Jeff McNeil
Still hitting 1st for OAK — 0.640 OPS, 0.251 AVG from the 1-hole.
COOLING OFFBOS @ TOR
Anthony Seigler: .515 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Jameson Taillon
Anthony Seigler's .515 OPS over the last 15 days (31 PA) trails his .714 season mark, down 0.199. Tonight he draws RHP Jameson Taillon — his stronger side: a .782 OPS vs RHP across 97 AB.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
CUT LISTKC tonight
Salvador Perez
Still hitting 4th for KC — 0.636 OPS, 0.216 AVG from the 4-hole.
TOMORROWNYM @ ATL
Martín Pérez: 3.14 ERA vs 4.32 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 37% is on the high side, though the low barrel rate says he's mostly turning that into playable balls rather than real damage. What stands out is opponents hitting 44 points below their expected average — a sizable gap, and it points to results running well ahead of the underlying contact quality. He gets the Mets tomorrow, and I'd expect the ERA to drift up toward that expected number rather than keep holding near 3.14.
FANTASY PICKUPSMIL @ SD
Casey Mize
Streamer vs MIL — 3.34 xERA · 8.6 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP.
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/14
Jordan Lawlar
Listed back 8/14 (10-Day-IL, hamstring) — 0.856 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ SD
Milwaukee Brewers like to run — Freddy Fermin (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Milwaukee runs at the same clip no matter who's behind the plate, and Fermin's caught right around a third of attempts this year — enough to make them pay, not enough to shut it down. Expect the volume to be there tonight, with at least one runner not making it.
P Milwaukee Brewers stole 1 base
CUT LISTMIN tonight
Austin Martin
Still hitting 1st for MIN — 0.657 OPS, 0.232 AVG from the 1-hole.
TOMORROWBOS @ TOR
Patrick Sandoval: 3.38 ERA vs 4.47 xERA
There's a real split here — a barrel rate under 4.5% is elite contact management, but hitters are actually batting .309 against Sandoval, 40 points higher than even his expected average. That tells me the low ERA isn't coming from limiting damage on balls in play, it's coming from what happens after — stranding runners, getting outs when it matters. Against Toronto tomorrow, I'd trust the .309 over the ERA.
CLOSER WATCHTEX @ LAA
Samy Natera Jr. / Jose Fermin
Shared ninth in LAA: Samy Natera Jr. 2 saves, Jose Fermin 1. The role is live.
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/14
Oneil Cruz
Listed back 8/14 (60-Day-IL, hand) — 0.822 OPS this season.
RUNNING GAMETB @ OAK
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 16%
A 16 percent catch rate means Oakland's basically not stopping anybody, and Tampa Bay knows it. Every runner who reaches base tonight has the 90 feet to second essentially open, and that's how a couple of singles turns into multiple runs instead of one.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 3 bases
CUT LISTPHI tonight
Andrew Painter
Starts tonight for PHI — 5.15 xERA behind a 6.48 ERA.
REGRESSIONHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
A .333 win rate in one-run games is mostly noise — that's high-variance stuff that tends to find its way back toward .500 over time. San Francisco's overall record is probably selling their actual team short more than it's telling you something real about close games.
TOMORROWPIT @ MIA
Paul Skenes: 3.96 ERA vs 3.01 xERA
Even at Skenes's level, a hard-hit rate pushing 39% is worth flagging, though the barrel rate's much more normal. Hitters are only 18 points over his expected average, a modest gap — this reads more like results running slightly worse than the process than a guy getting hammered by bad luck. Against Miami tomorrow, I'd trust the 3.01 expected number over the 3.96 he's actually carrying.
FIRST INNINGBAL @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Pick'em pricing on the first — -115 either way — is the market telling you exactly what I see: Rogers has been close to automatic early this year, Kremer's been the opposite, and neither side's willing to lean hard into stretching Minnesota's ten-game scoreless streak against a split that lopsided on the mound. I'd treat the first inning as a coin flip and save my real conviction for after both lineups have turned the order over once.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
CUT LISTBAL tonight
Gunnar Henderson
Still hitting 1st for BAL — 0.678 OPS, 0.213 AVG from the 1-hole.
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Listed back 8/15 (60-Day-IL, ribs) — 3.18 ERA this season.
FIRST INNINGHOU @ SF
HOU have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
The board's leaning the other way here, and slightly — Over's the shorter price at -115 to -110, which tells me the market thinks Houston's drought is closer to snapping than extending. A cold streak this long from a whole lineup is usually nearer its end than its middle. If they push a run across early, it changes the whole complexion of the game for San Francisco's starter.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
REPLACEMENTBOS @ TOR
Jarren Duran (.628 vs RHP) replaces Roman Anthony at LF tonight
Duran's in left and hitting seventh with Anthony's finger issue five days old now — right behind the heart of the order, so he's set up to cash in on whatever traffic the middle of the lineup leaves him against a righty. Every at-bat in left tonight runs through him instead.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONBAL @ MIN
Baltimore Orioles are 10-18 in one-run games (.357 win%)
Baltimore's sitting at .357 in one-run games, and that's the kind of split that doesn't usually hold — high variance, and it tends to crawl back toward .500. Their overall record is probably underselling how good this team actually is.
TOMORROWBAL @ MIN
Brandon Young: 3.43 ERA vs 4.29 xERA
A hard-hit rate near 41% is a real outlier and doesn't square with a 3.43 ERA — the average allowed lines up fine with expectations, so this isn't about balls finding holes, it's about the quality of contact underneath. Even with less than a run separating his ERA from his expected number, allowing that much hard contact while running below expected is living closer to the edge than the ERA lets on. Against Minnesota tomorrow, that hard-contact rate is the number I'd watch catching up with him first.
REPLACEMENTPHI @ STL
Ramon Urias (3B) is out for STL — Cesar Prieto starts in his place tonight
Prieto's in at third for St. Louis with Urias out, but hitting ninth tells you what this is — a hole getting filled, not a lineup built around him. Put the ball in play, turn it over to the top, nothing more expected of him tonight.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies are 20-11 in one-run games (.645 win%)
Philadelphia's 20-11 in one-run games is a .645 win rate, and that's about as unsustainable as these splits get — mostly variance, and it tends to come back to earth. I'd treat their overall record as flattering them a little more than they deserve right now.
REPLACEMENTCOL @ ARI
Max Kepler (.596 vs RHP) replaces Jordan Lawlar at LF tonight
This only came together today, so Arizona's filling a hole on short notice rather than working off a settled plan. Kepler's in left and batting seventh against a righty tonight, in a matchup that actually sits below his season number — reads like a bench move, not a weapon being deployed.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REPLACEMENTBOS @ TOR
Josh Smith (.646 vs RHP) replaces Lenyn Sosa at 2B tonight
Smith takes over second and hits eighth with Sosa's wrist keeping him out over a week now — a clean handoff of the matchup against a right-hander to the better bat. Quiet lineup spot, but real at-bats that would've gone somewhere else tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
CUT LISTNYM tonight
Marcus Semien
Still hitting 6th for NYM — 0.636 OPS, 0.213 AVG from the 6-hole.
FANTASY PICKUPSBOS @ TOR
Sonny Gray
Streamer vs TOR — 3.7 xERA · 8 K/9 · 1.15 WHIP.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ ARI
Michael Soroka
Streamer vs COL — 4 xERA · 8.7 K/9 · 1.09 WHIP.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Listed back 8/17 (10-Day-IL, hand) — 0.693 OPS this season.
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Listed back 8/18 (60-Day-IL, knee) — 2.04 ERA this season.
FIRST INNINGTEX @ LAA
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Both starters have been tough to square up early, .200 and .247 against, but neither's airtight — both have already given up four homers apiece in the first inning this year. That's quiet-until-it-isn't stuff, and it matches a Texas lineup that's scored in the first just once in ten tries, which is why I'd side with the Under at -125 over paying -105 for the Over. Anything that does score tonight is more likely to come in one swing than a string of singles.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGCOL @ ARI
ARI have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Both starters have actually been shaky early this year — Soroka's sitting at a 6.00 first-inning ERA, Hughes worse at 7.20 — and on paper that looks like the night Arizona finally breaks its quiet streak at the plate. The board still leans Under at -120 anyway, and Arizona's own results back it up with just one first-inning run in their last ten games. When the pitching says one thing and both the recent history and the number say another, I trust the offense's approach over the arms on the mound.
P flagged team scored 4 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Listed back 8/20 (60-Day-IL, shoulder) — 3.38 ERA this season.

Graded results

Games

L
Red Sox ML -154
MLB · 1-2
L
Braves ML -140
MLB · 8-5
L
Orioles ML -103
MLB · 5-9
L
Cardinals ML +108
MLB · 6-5
L
Brewers ML -121
MLB · 2-3
L
Rockies +1.5 -114
MLB · 0-9
W
Astros ML -140
MLB · 6-3
W
Rays ML -158
MLB · 10-6
W
Royals +1.5 +108
MLB · 5-6
W
Rangers ML -106
MLB · 4-1

Props

L
Alec Burleson · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Blade Tidwell · under
Astros @ Giants · Actual 6
W
Bryce Elder · under
Mets @ Braves · Actual 4
W
Bryson Stott · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 2
L
Caleb Durbin · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Carson Benge · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Casey Mize · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 5
W
Christian Scott · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 6
L
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Dean Kremer · under
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 7
W
Freddy Peralta · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 6
W
Hunter Dobbins · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 6
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Jac Caglianone · over
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 2
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jackson Merrill · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 2
W
Jacob Lopez · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 5
L
Jameson Taillon · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
L
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Michael Soroka · under
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 13
W
Reid Detmers · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 3
L
Tarik Skubal · over
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 6
L
Taylor Trammell · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Trevor Rogers · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 4
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Willi Castro · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
W
Wyatt Langford · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0