Sports Picks Archive — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Game picks

GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Guardians· -136

Comerica Park on a warm August night, and the Tigers come home for the first time since the deadline gutted the top of their rotation — except somebody forgot to tell this team it was supposed to fold. Detroit just went 7-2 through Seattle, Sacramento, and San Francisco, threw four shutouts along the way, and allowed under three runs a game while everyone was writing the obituary. Meanwhile, Cleveland limps into town off a team meeting, a public admission from Stephen Vogt that his club is pressing, and a 3-7 stretch that has the look of a group grinding against itself. The season series says Guardians — 6-0, including a sweep at this very ballpark in May. I respect it, and I threw it out anyway, because those games were played by teams that don't exist anymore. Tonight's Cleveland lineup runs four regulars hitting under .260 over the last two weeks, and they're staring at a Detroit pitching plan built for exactly this spot: Drew Anderson's power fastball and that wipeout changeup for three or four clean innings, then a rested bullpen that just posted ten scoreless across three games. Cleveland's pen is the mirror image — seventeen earned runs allowed in a week, leverage arms ridden hard both of the last two days, and no margin left if Bibee doesn't go seven. Bibee's been solid, but the swing-and-miss numbers say hitters are getting a better look at him than the ERA admits, and this Tigers lineup — Dingler, Torkelson, Keith, McKinstry — is squaring up everything right now. This is a form-versus-history bet, and I'll take form when the history was written by different rosters. Detroit is the hotter team, the healthier lineup, the fresher bullpen, and they're home with a crowd that's been waiting two weeks to see what this post-Skubal club is made of. The price is fair for what I'm getting. Tigers to win it outright. Tigers ML -136.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Pirates· +103

Tuesday night in Miami, roof shut tight, and the marquee says Paul Skenes. The books are still charging admission for the name — Pittsburgh sits at -110 behind a guy who won the Cy Young — but I've watched the last month, and the arm they're pricing isn't the arm that's showing up. The fastball has lost a tick and a half off last season, he hasn't scraped triple digits all year, and over his last three trips he's walked ten men in a hair over fourteen innings with an ERA north of eight. The strikeouts are still there, the stuff still flashes, but the command wobbles are real, and wobbly command in this building against a lineup that grinds at-bats is how a marquee name gives you five innings and a hooked ballgame. Meanwhile the other dugout is running out Eury Pérez, who's quietly been the better pitcher for six weeks. He carried a 1.69 ERA through July, has gone five or more in six straight, and the fastball is sitting 98 with life. Here's the part that decides this game for me: Pérez buries left-handed hitters — under .200 against with barely any slug — and Pittsburgh's entire offensive pulse right now runs through Brandon Lowe and the lefty bats around him. Take those away and what's left is a bottom third that's been swinging at ghosts, an outfield missing Ryan O'Hearn, and a club that's dropped seven of ten while scoring under four a game. That's not a group I trust to solve a guy throwing this well. Yes, Miami loses Kyle Stowers today, and that stings — he'd been their best hitter for two months. But this lineup is deeper than its reputation: Griffin Conine is in a legitimate power heater, Sanoja and Marsee are both squaring everything up, and this team has been a monster at home, 21-9 in this park since late May. When the hotter pitcher, the hotter offense, and the home cooking all point the same direction and the board hands you plus money because the other side has a famous name on the mound, you don't overthink it. Marlins moneyline at +103 is the play.

Meanwhile the other dugout is running out Eury Pérez, who's quietly been the better pitcher for six weeks. He carried a 1.69 ERA through July, has gone five or more in six straight, and the fastball is sitting 98 with life. Here's the part that decides this game for me: Pérez buries left-handed hitters — under .200 against with barely any slug — and Pittsburgh's entire offensive pulse right now runs through Brandon Lowe and the lefty bats around him. Take those away and what's left is a bottom third that's been swinging at ghosts, an outfield missing Ryan O'Hearn, and a club that's dropped seven of ten while scoring under four a game. That's not a group I trust to solve a guy throwing this well.

Yes, Miami loses Kyle Stowers today, and that stings — he'd been their best hitter for two months. But this lineup is deeper than its reputation: Griffin Conine is in a legitimate power heater, Sanoja and Marsee are both squaring everything up, and this team has been a monster at home, 21-9 in this park since late May. When the hotter pitcher, the hotter offense, and the home cooking all point the same direction and the board hands you plus money because the other side has a famous name on the mound, you don't overthink it. Marlins moneyline at +103 is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Nationals· -169

A warm Monday night on the banks of the Anacostia, and the surging Cubs roll into the District with the National League's quietest juggernaut resume — 69 wins, eight straight road series banked, and a rotation that just carried them through seventeen games in seventeen days without blinking. Waiting on them: a Nationals club feeling itself after a home sweep, and Jake Irvin, who draws the short straw against the wrong lineup at the wrong time. Shota Imanaga is the story here. Over his last three trips he's given up three earned runs across nearly eighteen innings with sixteen strikeouts against a single walk, and the fastball-splitter tunnel is doing exactly what it does when he's right — hitters chasing the split below the zone at a forty-plus percent clip and coming up empty. Washington counters with a lineup missing James Wood, leaning on rookies and bottom-third bats who have never taken a meaningful swing against him. Irvin, meanwhile, is a hard-contact machine right now — barreled up at a rate that ranks among the league's worst, and his home ledger at Nationals Park is a full three runs uglier than his work everywhere else. The Cubs have already hit him to the tune of nearly .300 across their careers, and Bregman, Hoerner, and Crow-Armstrong are all swinging it as well as anyone in the order. The Nationals' sweep of Cincinnati was real, and the retooled bullpen deserves the ink it's getting — but that run came against a sub-.500 club, while Chicago was busy taking series from the Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays in the same stretch. The gap shows up everywhere you look: the Cubs field it cleaner than almost anyone in baseball, the pen is deeper, and the lineup is longer top to bottom. At -169 you're paying a fair toll for the significantly better team with the significantly better pitcher, and I'll pay it. Cubs moneyline is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Mariners· -129

A warm Monday night in the Bronx, wind pushing out toward center, and two teams headed in opposite directions walking into the same building. The Yankees have spent a week playing playoff-tight baseball against Atlanta — every game decided late, every run earned. The Mariners just got swept out of their own park by Tampa, dropped four straight, and now open a nine-game road trip against exactly the kind of pitching that's been burying them. Here's what seals it for me: Josh Naylor is out of the lineup tonight with that wrist, and he was the only Seattle bat doing real damage — two homers Saturday while everyone around him went quiet. Take him out and this is a lineup scoring under two runs a game over its last five, with Weston Wilson hitting eighth and half the order sitting under .200 the past week. Ryan Weathers steps into his first start in pinstripes riding the best stretch of his season — one earned run over his last eighteen-plus innings — and that changeup is a nightmare for a lineup that's been expanding the zone all month. Bryan Woo has good stuff and a strong history against New York, but he's a fly-ball pitcher walking into a lefty-stacked home lineup with the short porch waiting, and one mistake here changes a game this tight. The Yankees' bats are cold too — I'm not pretending otherwise. But this game funnels to the bullpens, and that's where the gap gets loud. New York's pen has been the best story on the roster all year, rested and deep. Seattle's relievers have been leaking runs for a week, and if this one is close in the seventh, I know which side I trust to finish it. The Yankees don't need a big night — they need four runs and twelve clean outs, and everything about this matchup says they get both. Yankees moneyline is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Braves· +117

Tuesday night in Atlanta, and the first-place Braves are in a strange spot — staring up at a last-place club that keeps beating them. The Mets took the opener behind a five-run first, they've won seven of eleven in this rivalry, and now they hand the ball to the best arm in this series while Atlanta counters with a veteran lefty living on borrowed time. Martín Pérez's surface numbers look tidy, but the shine comes off the closer you look. The two teams that have squared him up hardest lately? One of them is this Mets lineup, which reached him for eight hits in five innings in late July and chased him in the fifth back on Independence Day weekend. New York stacks the right-handed bats — Bichette, Robert, Semien, Alvarez — and this group is scoring in bunches, hanging nearly eight runs a game over the last week with Bichette swinging as hot as anyone in the sport. Pérez rarely finishes the fifth inning, which means Atlanta's bullpen gets stretched early for the third time in four days. That pen is good, but even good pens crack when they're asked to cover half the game night after night. Meanwhile Nolan McLean walks into a building where he's already carved this lineup up — six strong innings here in July, and the Braves' current bats have barely touched him in their limited looks. He's got the power sinker, the mid-90s heat, and the breaking stuff to keep Atlanta's lefty stack off balance. Here's what seals it: the market is giving me plus money on the team with the better starter, the hotter lineup, and complete ownership of this head-to-head. The Braves' record says lay the price, but records don't pitch — matchups do, and this matchup has broken New York's way all season long. Give me the Mets at +117 and let Atlanta prove me wrong. Gary's take: Mets money line, and we're not sweating it.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Orioles· -109

**Gary's Take: Twins ML (-109)** Tuesday night at Target Field, and the Orioles are still trying to wash the taste out of their mouths after Dean Kremer carved up his old club in the opener. Now they hand the ball to Brandon Young, hoping a rookie who's been leaking oil can steady a road trip that's gone sideways. Here's the problem with that plan: Young's season line looks tidy, but the arrow is pointing the wrong direction. His outings have gotten shorter five starts in a row — seven innings in mid-July down to four-and-a-third his last time out — and the contact quality he's allowing says the pretty ERA has been living on borrowed time. He's walking into a lineup with genuine heat in the middle. Josh Bell is scalding right now, Royce Lewis has been hitting everything for two weeks, and this Twins offense just hung nine on this same pitching staff. On the other side, Bailey Ober is a completely different animal in Minneapolis — sub-three ERA at home against a number pushing seven everywhere else — and the Orioles' bats have historically done next to nothing against him. Gunnar Henderson is buried in a one-for-twenty slide, and Baltimore is trotting out a righty-heavy group against a guy whose best weapons play fine to that side. And if this one comes down to the bullpens — and with Young trending short, it probably does — that's another point for the home side. Baltimore's pen has been getting torched, twelve earned runs over the last three games with its most-used arms running on fumes, while Minnesota's deadline-rebuilt relief corps is rested and deeper in high-leverage spots. At essentially a coin-flip price for the better tonight-specific pitching matchup, the hotter bats, and the fresher pen, the Twins are the side. Give me Minnesota at -109.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Reds· -148

Tuesday night on the South Side, and the ballpark's been loud lately — the White Sox come home winners of eight of their last ten, putting up six runs a game, and now Cincinnati rolls in off a sweep in Washington where the bats went quiet. One team is trending up in August. The other is trying to remember what a crooked number looks like. This ticket starts with the mound, because that's where the gap lives. Sean Burke has been one of the steadiest arms in the American League for a month — a 1.14 ERA in July, 24 strikeouts against five walks over his last three turns, and he handles lefties and righties alike, so there's no lineup card Cincinnati can write that solves him. Across from him, Nick Lodolo is making his first start off the injured list after a blister cost him a month, with one short tune-up outing to his name. He won't be built up to go deep, and even before the layoff the underlying numbers were ugly — too much hard contact, a sinker that hitters aren't missing and aren't mishitting either. So the math is simple: Burke can carry this game into the seventh, while the Reds are asking a shaky bullpen to cover half the night against a lineup that's been swinging it as well as anybody for two weeks. And look at what Cincinnati is bringing to the plate. Three runs a game over the last five, a bottom third of the order that's flat-out frozen, and a sweep at the hands of the Nationals where they managed three total runs across the final two games. That's not a group I'm trusting to solve the hottest pitcher in the building, in his park, with his crowd. The White Sox are the better team right now on the mound, at the plate, and in the pen — I'll gladly lay the short number. Give me the White Sox on the moneyline at -148.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Cardinals· -162

Sweltering August night at Busch, extreme heat baking the Midwest, and the Phillies roll into Game 2 having already stolen the opener from a Cardinals club that keeps clawing but keeps coming up a hit short. Now Philadelphia hands the ball to its ace — and that changes the entire complexion of this series. Cristopher Sánchez at 15-4 with a 2.65 is the best arm on either side of this matchup, and the way Philadelphia managed Monday night matters just as much as who's starting. They rode Andrew Painter and the long men through the opener specifically so Jhoan Duran, Orion Kerkering, and Brooks Raley could sit, which means Sánchez hands off five or six innings to a rested, full-strength back end. Contrast that with Andre Pallante's side of the ledger: he's thrown the ball well lately, but his numbers at Busch Stadium have lagged well behind his road work all season, and he's staring down a Phillies lineup stacked with left-handed bats — Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, a red-hot Bryson Stott — that attacks the softer side of his splits. St. Louis built its lineup smartly, running seven righties out there because that's where Sánchez has been vulnerable, and Ivan Herrera is swinging as well as anyone in the league right now. That's the path for the Cardinals, and it's a real one. But when I weigh a coin-flip counterpunch against the better team, the better starter, the fresher bullpen, and a Phillies club that's won eight of eleven and plays every close game like they expect to win it, I know where I stand. The run line tempts at plus money, but these two just played a one-run game and St. Louis doesn't go quietly at home — so I'm not paying for the cushion. Give me the Phillies to finish the job straight up. Phillies ML -162 is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Red Sox· -129

Tuesday night under the roof at Rogers Centre, and the Red Sox walk back into the building where their nine-game heater died — this time with a Cy Young frontrunner waiting for them. Blue Jays ML at -129 is the play, and it's not complicated: this is the widest starting-pitching gap you'll find on the board tonight. Dylan Cease is pitching like the best arm in the American League right now. Over his last three starts he's allowed one earned run in 22 innings with 29 strikeouts, and the last time he saw this Boston lineup — July 25, in their own park — he threw nine innings of one-hit baseball and punched out twelve. Hitters from both sides of the plate are batting under .200 against him this season, and he works deep enough that Toronto's high-leverage arms only need to cover an inning or two. Across the diamond, Patrick Sandoval is still rebuilding from two lost years to elbow surgery. The 3.38 ERA is polite fiction — the walks are piling up, the traffic is constant, and he hasn't finished a sixth inning all season. That means four-plus innings of Boston bullpen against a Toronto lineup that's found some life since the deadline shakeup, with the hot hands getting rewarded and the top of the order suddenly producing. The case against is Boston's month — they've been the hottest team in baseball and the bats are legitimate. But they managed one run in this building last night against a far lesser arm, and Cease already showed them the ceiling of this matchup once this summer. When one side has the ace going deep and the other is counting outs from the fourth inning on, you take the ace at a short home price. Blue Jays win this one behind their horse, and the number never gets a chance to breathe.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Angels· -142

**Gary's Take — Rangers ML (-142)** Tuesday night in Anaheim, and the Big A tells two different stories. The Rangers roll in having won five of six, a half-game off the division lead, playing like a team that knows every game from here on out matters. The Angels are 45-74, fresh off a sell-off that shipped out half the roster, and they just fired the entire pitching-coach staff mid-season. One of these clubs is chasing October. The other is auditioning for next year. This game lives and dies with Ryan Johnson, and I don't like his chances. The rookie carries a 7.11 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP into this one, and the underlying stuff is worse than the headline — his sinker is getting hit at a .383 clip, his velocity is down two full ticks across the arsenal from last year, and he's walked nine in his last three starts while allowing 14 earned runs. Now hand him a Texas lineup stacking five left-handed bats, when lefties are hitting .276 with an .851 OPS and seven homers against him — and the hottest of them, Brandon Nimmo, is batting .435 over the past week with two bombs. Johnson hasn't finished the fifth inning in three straight starts. When he exits early, an Angels bullpen that's been overworked all week and just lost another late game gets exposed again. The other side of the ledger seals it. Cody Bradford was sharp in his return from elbow surgery — 4.1 scoreless against San Francisco — and he doesn't have to be a hero tonight, because the Rangers' pen has been the quiet strength of this run: rested, deep, and stingy all week. Meanwhile the Angels are scoring 2.1 runs a game over their last ten, with Zach Neto and Mike Trout both hitting under .175 in that stretch. Los Angeles needed extra innings to lose 4-1 against MacKenzie Gore last night, and tonight's pitching matchup tilts further toward Texas, not back. Lay the number. Rangers moneyline at -142 is the play.

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GARY'S PICK

MLBvs Rockies· -165

Tuesday night in the desert, roof shut tight, and the Diamondbacks come strolling in eight games over .500 with a wild-card spot in their back pocket — fresh off taking down the Dodgers and hanging a 9-0 beating on these same Rockies last night. Colorado limps in at 46-73, mid-rebuild, mid-road-trip, and now they hand the ball to Tomoyuki Sugano for his first start in purple. That's the stage, and I don't love the footing for the visitors. Here's the heart of it: Sugano's 4.51 ERA is doing a lot of polite lying. The contact against him has been loud all season — hitters are barreling him up, hammering the fastball and sinker, and left-handed bats in particular have treated him like batting practice with an .891 OPS and 15 homers. Now he walks into a hitter-friendly building and stares down Lars Nootbaar, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte stacked right at the top of the order. Flip it around and Arizona's rookie lefty Mitch Bratt is trending the exact opposite way — seven shutout innings with nine punchouts his last time out, and a Rockies lineup loaded with right-handed hitters he's held to a .203 average. The command wobbles sometimes, sure, but the matchup bends his way almost everywhere you look. And when the starters leave, this gets lopsided. Arizona's bullpen has been one of the quietest weapons in the league — a sub-3.00 ERA across a massive workload — while Colorado's current relief corps has been leaking runs at a six-plus clip with baserunners everywhere. Add a Rockies defense that's booted the ball 77 times against Arizona's 44, and every late-inning path favors the home side. Perdomo resting the knee costs the D-backs a little, but Vargas has been swinging it fine, and it's nowhere near enough to prop up a team that got shut out in this park twenty-four hours ago. Give me the Diamondbacks at -165 and let the roof stay closed on Colorado's night.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Padres· -126

**Gary's Take: Brewers ML (-126)** Tuesday night at Petco, and the best record in baseball walks into a building that just beat them. San Diego has won 13 of 17, Jackson Merrill is hitting everything out of the yard, and the Wild Card race has this whole series buzzing. But strip away the noise and look at who's actually standing on the mound tonight — that's where this game tilts back to Milwaukee. Kyle Harrison is the best pitcher in this game and it isn't particularly close. A 2.84 ERA that his underlying numbers fully support, a fastball-slurve pairing that's missing bats at a 30 percent clip on both pitches, and he's coming off five shutout innings with ten strikeouts. Petco's heavy marine air only sharpens that profile. Walker Buehler is the opposite story — a 5.07 ERA, a four-seamer that's getting hit at a .379 clip, and a glaring vulnerability against left-handed hitters, who've posted a .794 OPS against him this year. Milwaukee's lineup runs six lefties deep plus a switch hitter, with Jackson Chourio scalding the baseball and Jake Bauers swinging as well as anyone in the order. Buehler hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six starts, which means San Diego's terrific bullpen has to cover a lot of ground — and it only matters if he hands them a lead to protect. The Padres will counter with Mason Miller and that elite late-inning group, and Merrill can change a game with one swing, so nobody should expect a laugher — these two just played a 3-2 game and this one profiles similarly tight. But in a coin-flip-tight ballgame, I want the side with the clear starting pitching advantage, the platoon leverage against the opposing starter, and a rested bullpen of its own — Trevor Megill barely broke a sweat all weekend. Milwaukee is 74-45 for a reason. Give me the Brewers at -126, a fair price for the better team with the better arm on the night.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Athletics· -123

Tuesday night in West Sacramento, and the best team in the American League rolls into a ballpark that watched them hang an eight-spot in the eighth inning less than 24 hours ago. The Rays have won seven straight, all of them on the road, and tonight they get a matchup that sets up almost exactly like last night's did — only this time I don't need them to erase a deficit. I just need them to win by two. Here's why the run line is the play and not just the team: Mason Barnett couldn't get through five innings his last time out, and behind him sits a bullpen that's been bleeding runs for a week — the same relief corps that took a one-run game last night and turned it into a four-run loss. That's the mechanism that cashes this ticket. When the Athletics lose lately, they don't lose by one; the late innings are where close games get pried open, and Tampa Bay just showed everyone exactly how they do it. Stack on the lineup fit — the Rays run seven left-handed bats at Barnett, who's been hammered by lefties all year, while the A's send a lefty-heavy order at Nick Martinez, who's held left-handed hitters to almost nothing — and both sides of the matchup tilt the same direction. Yandy Diaz is scorching, Caminero has five homers in two weeks, and Chandler Simpson is hitting .375 over his last fifteen games. This offense doesn't need much of an opening. The honest risk: Martinez gives up his share of fly balls, and this park in August heat turns fly balls into souvenirs, which is how Sacramento hangs around within a run. That's real, and it's why this is a firm lean rather than a max play. But a 72-46 team riding a seven-game heater against a 47-72 club that's dropped eight of ten and can't hold a lead late — with the underdog's best bat out of the lineup — is the kind of spot where the extra run is worth laying. Rays -1.5, and let the late innings do what they've been doing all week.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Giants· -119

Tuesday night by the Bay, and the Giants are trying to stop the bleeding against a Houston club that just ripped their hearts out in extra innings. The problem is the man they're handing the baseball to. Carson Whisenhunt is a lefty who hasn't gotten out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts, and right-handed hitters have been feasting on him — a .338 average and an OPS over a thousand. Houston looked at that and stacked seven righties in the lineup, including Cam Smith, who's hitting .500 over the past week with three homers and is squaring up everything he touches. This isn't a matchup, it's an ambush. And when Whisenhunt exits early — which is his pattern, not a projection — the game falls into the lap of a San Francisco bullpen running on fumes. That group has bled runs at nearly a six ERA clip over the last week, and three of its most-used arms worked both of the last two nights. Houston's relief corps, by contrast, has been nearly untouchable lately and comes in rested. So the Astros don't just have the edge in the first five innings; they have it in the last four too. On the other side, Hunter Brown has been dealing — twenty strikeouts and four walks across his last three outings — and he's stingy against left-handed bats, which is exactly what this lefty-heavy Giants order is built on. San Francisco is scoring under three runs a game over its last ten and under two over its last five. Somebody has to drive in runs to keep this thing inside a run, and I'm not sure who that is. The honest case for the Giants is the ballpark and the flukiness of one-run baseball — Oracle Park swallows fly balls, and these two just played nine innings of deadlock before Houston pulled away late. But look closer at how the Giants have stayed close lately: their starters have dealt, and tonight's starter is the one guy in the rotation who can't. When Whisenhunt has taken the ball recently, games haven't stayed tight — they've gotten away, fast. A hot lineup against a struggling arm, a rested pen against a gassed one, and a home offense that can't score: that's how a two-run win gets built. Give me Houston to win it by a couple and lay the run and a half.

And when Whisenhunt exits early — which is his pattern, not a projection — the game falls into the lap of a San Francisco bullpen running on fumes. That group has bled runs at nearly a six ERA clip over the last week, and three of its most-used arms worked both of the last two nights. Houston's relief corps, by contrast, has been nearly untouchable lately and comes in rested. So the Astros don't just have the edge in the first five innings; they have it in the last four too. On the other side, Hunter Brown has been dealing — twenty strikeouts and four walks across his last three outings — and he's stingy against left-handed bats, which is exactly what this lefty-heavy Giants order is built on. San Francisco is scoring under three runs a game over its last ten and under two over its last five. Somebody has to drive in runs to keep this thing inside a run, and I'm not sure who that is.

The honest case for the Giants is the ballpark and the flukiness of one-run baseball — Oracle Park swallows fly balls, and these two just played nine innings of deadlock before Houston pulled away late. But look closer at how the Giants have stayed close lately: their starters have dealt, and tonight's starter is the one guy in the rotation who can't. When Whisenhunt has taken the ball recently, games haven't stayed tight — they've gotten away, fast. A hot lineup against a struggling arm, a rested pen against a gassed one, and a home offense that can't score: that's how a two-run win gets built. Give me Houston to win it by a couple and lay the run and a half.

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GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Dodgers· +104

Tuesday night at Chavez Ravine, and the Dodgers are rolling Blake Snell out there for the first time in three months — a get-right story for a club that's dropped eight of ten. The problem with get-right nights is somebody has to pay for them, and the books are asking you to believe this one comes with a two-run margin attached. Here's what I see. Snell is on a hard leash — five innings and 75 pitches on the optimistic end, and his last tune-up didn't even get through four. That means Los Angeles is running a half-bullpen game the same week its entire late-inning core has worked back-to-back nights, with Edwin Díaz living on the edge every time he touches a lead. Across the way, Michael Wacha is quietly in his best stretch of the season — a run and a half of ERA over his last three turns, routinely carrying it into the sixth and seventh. That's the recipe for a game that stays tight into the late innings, and tight late innings are exactly where this Dodgers lineup has been living: they're scoring three and a half a game during this skid, and both wins in the stretch — including last night against this same Kansas City club — came by a single run. The Royals aren't here to be a prop in someone else's bounce-back narrative. Jac Caglianone is the hottest hitter on either side of this series, Bobby Witt Jr. is squaring balls up, and the pen just got reinforcements while catching a rare rested night. I don't need Kansas City to win this game — I need them to keep doing what they did Monday, which is trade punches into the ninth. Getting a run and a half at plus money in a spot where the favorite's margin has to come from a rusty ace and a tired bullpen? That's my side. Royals +1.5.

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Player props

GARY'S PICK

SPENCER TORKELSONSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +160

I'm getting plus money on one single from a hitter batting .380 over the last 15 days and cashing this exact prop in 11 of those 15 games. Torkelson has produced ten hard-hit balls on his last 21 balls in play, so the results are supported by the quality of contact. Bibee has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .243, and his low ground-ball rate gives Torkelson opportunities to shoot a line drive through the defense. Batting sixth for the home team should provide enough chances. At +160, one clean piece of contact is worth backing.

GARY'S PICK

DREW ANDERSONPITCHER HITS ALLOWED UNDER 3.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· -148

This is a workload bet as much as a contact bet. Anderson returned from a 51-day gap and recorded only 11 outs in his latest start, while Detroit enters with a rested bullpen after Monday's day off. He shouldn't need to face Cleveland's lineup three times. The matchup works, too. Anderson has held left-handed hitters to a .238 average and a .625 OPS, significant against Cleveland's left-heavy order. His fastball, changeup, and curveball have each limited damage, and this Guardians lineup has no previous experience against him. Four hits is a lot to require before Detroit makes the move to its bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

PAUL SKENESPITCHER OUTS UNDER 17.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +108

This asks Skenes to finish six innings, something he hasn't done in any of his last three starts. Those outings totaled only 14.1 innings, and the ten walks are the real warning sign: even when he misses bats, the command problems keep driving up his pitch count. Miami has enough patient contact bats to extend him. Xavier Edwards and Jakob Marsee aren't chasing much, Javier Sanoja rarely swings through a pitch, and the lineup has scored 19 runs across its last two games. Skenes can pitch well and still leave after five; at plus money, under 17.5 outs is my play.

GARY'S PICK

EURY PEREZK'S OVER 6.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +100

Pittsburgh strikes out 9.46 times per game, and this particular lineup gives Pérez several paths to seven. Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds have both been swinging through more than 40 percent of their recent pitches, while Esmerlyn Valdez just struck out four times Sunday. Pérez can attack that weakness with more than velocity. His slider owns a 43 percent whiff rate, his sweeper is at 38.5 percent, and his changeup is at 40 percent. He's reached nine strikeouts twice in his last four starts, and the even-money price gives me enough room to back another ceiling outing.

THE LONG SHOT

GRIFFIN CONINEHR OVER 0.5

MLBMiami Marlins· +630

Conine is running the hottest power stretch on either roster right now — five home runs and a .968 OPS over his last fifteen games, capped by a two-homer night his last time out. He's not just hot in a part-time role, either. With Stowers now on the injured list, Conine is locked into the middle of Miami's order tonight, batting third, so the at-bats are guaranteed. The matchup adds to the case: Paul Skenes has been hammered for thirteen earned runs across his last three starts, a stretch that already includes a two-homer outing, and the two pitches he leans on to put hitters away — the sinker and the splitter — are both getting hit hard across the league this year, with the splitter alone allowing a .333 average against. Miami is reportedly loading the lineup with left-handed bats tonight specifically to take advantage of how Skenes has struggled lately, and Conine is the one in that group who's already swinging it well. The exit velocity and barrel numbers behind his recent homers say this is real contact, not a stretch of well-placed hits. At plus-630, I think the form and the matchup put him ahead of what that price implies.

THE LONG SHOT

ANGEL MARTINEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCleveland Guardians· +700

Martinez is swinging the best bat on this entire board right now. A grand slam and a six-RBI night against the White Sox less than a week ago, a 1.032 OPS over his last seven games, and the best barrel rate of anyone on this prop sheet — he's squaring up close to a third of the balls he's put in play recently. That's a real hot stretch, not a one-swing fluke. The pitcher he's facing adds some volatility in his favor. Drew Anderson has barely started a big-league game in his career and is being stretched into Detroit's rotation out of necessity after the trade deadline — this is essentially his first real look as a starter for this club, coming off a long, irregular layoff between outings. His thin track record shows righties have hit him a little harder than lefties, and Martinez sees him from the left side as a switch-hitter, so that's technically a mark against. But I don't weigh a platoon split built on a career reliever's scattered innings very heavily against what Martinez is doing at the plate right now. I like the bat over the price here.

THE LONG SHOT

DILLON DINGLERHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +435

Dingler's the one Tiger on this board actually squaring the ball up right now — four barrels in his last 24 batted balls, three homers in his last week alone, and he's hitting third in a Detroit lineup that's scored 7.5 runs a game over its last ten. That's contact quality showing up in the exit-velocity readings before it ever shows up in the box score, not a guy running hot on bloopers. Bibee's the argument against him on paper — righties have had a much harder time going deep on him than lefties this season, and Detroit's lineup has yet to homer off him at all in their head-to-head history. But that history is thin, and Bibee's last time out he served up three homers to the Mets, with his cutter and curveball both getting squared up more than the rest of his mix. I'm comfortable riding Dingler's current form here even from the tougher side of the platoon.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON LOWEHR OVER 0.5

MLBPittsburgh Pirates· +480

Lowe's power is real right now — four home runs in his last fifteen games, an average exit velocity over 94 miles an hour on his recent contact, and a couple of genuine barrels mixed into a small sample. That's loud contact, not just a hot stretch of bloops falling in. The swing-and-miss has crept up alongside it, and the matchup itself isn't clean: Eury Perez has actually been tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed ones this season, holding lefties under .200. That's a real mark against the pick. It's a full-season, league-wide number rather than anything built on history with Lowe specifically, though, and the one pitch that has given Perez trouble this year is his sinker — hitters are batting .300 against it. That's a pitch a hitter running this hot can do damage on if he gets it. I'm less confident here than I'd like given the platoon split, but the power he's carrying into tonight is legitimate, and plus-480 is paying well past what his recent rate suggests it should.

THE LONG SHOT

KEVIN MCGONIGLEHR OVER 0.5

MLBDetroit Tigers· +600

McGonigle bats left, and that's exactly the side that's given Bibee trouble all year — lefties are slugging well beyond what righties have managed against him, and the bulk of the home runs he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate. McGonigle's own numbers back up taking a shot here too: three homers and a near-.900 OPS over his last two weeks, part of a Tigers offense that's been putting up crooked numbers all through this road trip. I'll be straight about what gives me pause: his most recent batted-ball readings don't show a barrel in the mix, so the underlying contact quality hasn't been as loud as the counting stats suggest, and Comerica's deep dimensions suppress homers for everyone on this board, him included. I'm leaning more on the platoon matchup and the hot two-week stretch than on hard-hit evidence for this one, which is why it's my smallest stake of the three tonight. But a lefty bat facing a pitcher who's had real homer trouble against that side, at this price, is a shot I want to take.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE IRVINPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBWashington Nationals· -120

Irvin's 5.40 xERA backs up the damage in his actual results, and his 43.7% hard-hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate leave almost no margin against this Cubs order. Chicago has seven hitters who own a combined .296 career average against him, while Irvin has a 7.04 ERA at Nationals Park. With the Cubs producing five runs per game over their last ten, I like them to get three charged to Irvin before Washington can hide him in the bullpen.

GARY'S PICK

SHOTA IMANAGAPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 2.5

MLBChicago Cubs· -140

Imanaga has allowed only three earned runs over his last 17.2 innings, striking out 16 while walking one. His splitter is generating a 39% whiff rate and nearly a 45% chase rate, a difficult combination for a Washington lineup featuring several hitters with elevated chase or swing-and-miss numbers. James Wood remains absent, and Imanaga has gone over this number only once in his last eight starts. I'll lay the price on two earned runs or fewer.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN WEATHERSK'S UNDER 6.5

MLBNew York Yankees· -152

This is a bet on the number, not against Weathers. He has reached seven strikeouts once in his last eight starts, and Seattle has enough contact spread through Taylor Ward, Randy Arozarena, Cole Young and Brendan Donovan to extend at-bats without giving him seven punchouts. His changeup can miss bats, but the Yankees also have a rested bullpen and no reason to force extra innings from him in his first start for the club. Six strikeouts can still be an excellent night and cash this under.

GARY'S PICK

COLE YOUNGSINGLES OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· -110

Young is the Seattle bat I trust most to simplify this matchup. He has singled in ten of his last fifteen games, is hitting .340 over that stretch and has been missing just 14 percent of the pitches he swings at recently. Weathers has allowed left-handed hitters a .279 average, so I am not treating the same-side matchup as an automatic disadvantage. Batting fifth should give Young multiple chances to shoot one through the infield, and even money is fair enough for that profile.

GARY'S PICK

MARTIN PEREZPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +125

The Mets have already gotten to Pérez twice this season, scoring four earned runs in 4.1 innings in July and three more on eight hits later that month. Now he faces a New York lineup loaded with right-handed and switch hitters, several of whom are swinging it well. Pérez's 3.14 ERA is carrying more shine than his 4.33 expected ERA supports, and the Mets have scored 44 runs over their last seven games. I only need three earned runs, and DraftKings is giving me plus money. I'm taking the over.

GARY'S PICK

NOLAN MCLEANK'S OVER 5.5

MLBNew York Mets· -150

McLean has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts and owns 156 strikeouts in 130.2 innings. The velocity gets him into favorable counts, then the curveball gives him a legitimate finishing pitch with a whiff rate pushing 40 percent. Atlanta's lineup has several attackable strikeout pockets, especially Harris, Riley and Jarvis, while Olson can also be beaten beneath the zone. McLean has reached six innings in five of his last six starts, so the workload should be there. I'm laying the price on six strikeouts.

GARY'S PICK

BAILEY OBERK'S UNDER 4.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· -145

Five strikeouts requires a version of Ober that has not shown up lately. He has only five total across his last three starts, including zero through six innings last time, and has cleared this line in just two of his last eight. His four-seamer is down to 88.2 mph with a 13.7% whiff rate, while the sweeper is his only consistent bat-misser and makes up less than 12% of his pitches. Baltimore will strike out, but Ober can navigate this lineup through early contact without reaching five. I’ll pay the price on the under.

GARY'S PICK

ROYCE LEWISTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +135

Lewis has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games and has cleared 1.5 total bases in 10 of them. He is batting .380 with three homers during that stretch, and Brandon Young has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .280 while surrendering a 40.9% hard-hit rate overall. Young's slider is a legitimate weapon, but Lewis is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on plus money in a matchup that gives him paths through both multiple hits and extra-base damage. Give me more than one base.

GARY'S PICK

SEAN BURKEPITCHER OUTS OVER 17.5

MLBChicago White Sox· -113

This asks Burke to complete six innings, something he's done in five of his last six starts and six of his last eight. His fastball and curveball have both produced excellent contact results, and Cincinnati brings a strikeout-heavy lineup into Chicago after scoring six total runs during its three-game skid. The Reds also give away several softer outs near the bottom of the order. Burke's abbreviated outing in Boston is the exception to an otherwise steady workload, and the day off gives Chicago no reason to manage him cautiously. At nearly even money, I'm backing him to get through the sixth.

GARY'S PICK

NICK LODOLOPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +109

Lodolo issued nine walks over his final three starts before the injured-list stint, including at least two in each outing. Now he's returning after a month away, and two walks is a low bar for a pitcher carrying a 1.47 WHIP and 27 walks in 62.2 innings. Chicago averages 3.43 walks per game and has enough patience throughout the lineup to make him work, particularly if his command is still settling in after the blister and layoff. I don't need Lodolo to unravel; I only need two free passes, and the plus price is worth taking.

GARY'S PICK

IVAN HERRERATOTAL BASES OVER 1.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +160

I don't need Herrera to dominate Sánchez; I need him to find two bases. Right-handed hitters have batted .292 with a .774 OPS against Sánchez, and Herrera is the hottest, hardest-contact bat in this lineup: 12-for-28 over his last seven with a 95.6 mph average exit velocity. He doubled twice in the opener and gets another favorable spot batting second on a 95-degree night with the wind carrying toward center. The difficulty of the overall matchup is fully reflected in this plus-money price. Herrera over 1.5 total bases is the play.

GARY'S PICK

JJ WETHERHOLTHITS UNDER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +160

Wetherholt's leadoff spot guarantees opportunity, but the matchup is severe enough to take the plus price. Left-handed hitters are batting .131 with a .315 OPS against Sánchez across 145 at-bats, and Wetherholt enters tonight just 9-for-46 over his last 15 days. Sánchez's changeup and slider give him two legitimate put-away pitches against lefties, so Wetherholt may spend his first three trips trying to solve the strongest part of this pitcher's profile. At +160, I'm betting he finishes without a hit.

GARY'S PICK

PATRICK SANDOVALPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· -127

Sandoval has not recorded a 16th out in any of his five starts this season. That workload pattern matters in his first start for Boston, especially with a 1.67 WHIP and eight walks across his last three outings. Toronto does not need to chase him early; enough traffic and extended counts should get the bullpen door open by the end of the fifth. At -127, I'm betting that Boston maintains the leash he has carried throughout his return.

GARY'S PICK

DYLAN CEASEPITCHER OUTS OVER 18.5

MLBToronto Blue Jays· +140

Cease has completed at least seven innings in four of his last six starts, including a nine-inning, one-hit shutout of Boston on July 25. His fastball, slider and changeup all miss bats, giving him several ways to escape trouble without long innings. Toronto also has reason to seek length after Tyler Rogers worked on consecutive days and Louis Varland threw 47 pitches across two recent appearances. The 19th out is never automatic against this Boston lineup, but +140 pays generously for a threshold Cease keeps reaching.

GARY'S PICK

CODY BRADFORDPITCHER OUTS UNDER 15.5

MLBTexas Rangers· -125

Bradford is making only his second major-league start since elbow surgery. His rehab work reached roughly four innings and 56 pitches, then Texas pulled him after 4.1 innings in his return despite a scoreless line. This number requires him to record an out in the sixth. The under still cashes if he completes five, giving me room for another modest workload increase without asking the Angels to hit him hard.

GARY'S PICK

RYAN JOHNSONPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +140

Johnson has failed to finish five innings in four of his past six starts, including three straight. He has walked nine batters over his last 12.1 innings, and Texas can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher allowing an .851 OPS to lefties. The Rangers do not have to chase him from the game with one big inning; extended counts and traffic can get him removed before the end of the fifth. At plus money, the price is the attraction.

GARY'S PICK

MITCH BRATTPITCHER WALKS OVER 1.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· -105

The seven-inning gem last time out was impressive, but it also came with three walks. Bratt has issued 18 free passes in 27.2 innings, including 12 across his last three starts, and he has cleared this number in five of six outings. Colorado has enough patient bats near the top to make him work, and Bratt’s fastball has produced little swing-and-miss when he needs a strike. He doesn't need a long night to get us there—two walks have been his baseline, not his ceiling. At nearly even money, I’m betting the command remains a problem.

GARY'S PICK

JAKE BAUERSHITS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· -150

Bauers has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games and is batting .343 with three homers over that stretch. The contact has substance behind it, too: he's averaging 97.1 mph off the bat recently. Now he gets Buehler, who has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .291 and has been particularly vulnerable with his four-seamer and changeup. Bauers is hitting cleanup with several chances to collect one hit, and that is enough for me even at the heavier price.

GARY'S PICK

GARRETT MITCHELLWALKS OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +131

Mitchell has drawn a walk in eight of his last 15 games, and his recent 23 percent chase rate matters against a pitcher whose command has been unreliable. Buehler has issued 45 walks in 108 1/3 innings, and Milwaukee's left-handed-heavy lineup should force him into uncomfortable counts all night. Batting third gives Mitchell strong plate-appearance volume, and the plus price only asks this matchup to produce one free pass.

GARY'S PICK

MASON BARNETTPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBOakland Athletics· -118

Fifteen outs asks Barnett to finish five innings, and this matchup is built to push him out sooner. His last two starts ended at five and 4 1/3, he has issued 17 walks in 34 innings, and Tampa Bay can send seven hitters to the plate from the left side. Lefties have posted a .905 OPS against him, so the Rays can pressure both his pitch count and the scoreboard before the lineup turns over a third time. The Athletics' struggling bullpen could buy Barnett a little extra leash, but there is only so far that goes in this heat and this hitter-friendly park. Tampa Bay makes plenty of contact, and once Barnett reaches the middle of the order for a third look, I expect the hook. Under 14.5 outs.

GARY'S PICK

CHANDLER SIMPSONHITS OVER 1.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +160

I'm taking the plus money on Simpson to collect at least two hits. He has done it in nine of his last fifteen games, is 18-for-48 over that stretch and owns an 11-for-27 mark over the past week. The important part is how repeatable the approach looks: his recent whiff rate is only 10%, so he keeps putting balls in play instead of giving away plate appearances. Barnett has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .274 with a .905 OPS, and getting through him only brings Simpson to an Athletics bullpen carrying a 1.56 WHIP. Batting fifth on the road should give him four chances with a realistic path to five. Two-hit props are volatile, but +160 is enough return for a hitter seeing the ball this well in this matchup.

GARY'S PICK

CARSON WHISENHUNTPITCHER EARNED RUNS OVER 2.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +103

Houston needs to score three runs against Whisenhunt before the Giants pull him, and that is a bet I want at plus money. He has allowed at least four earned runs in three straight starts, totaling 14 across just 11.2 innings, while his 6.72 xERA confirms this has been bad pitching rather than a run of unfortunate results. The platoon matchup makes it worse. Right-handed hitters have a .338 average and 1.013 OPS against Whisenhunt, and Houston is sending seven righties at him. This lineup also owns enough patience to punish his control without bailing him out on early-count pitches. The quick hook is the threat, but Whisenhunt has still surrendered four or more before leaving each of his last three starts. I only need three tonight.

GARY'S PICK

CAM SMITHH+R+RBI OVER 1.5

MLBHouston Astros· -101

Smith is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on essentially even money in this matchup. He is 7-for-14 with three homers over the past week, has produced a 96 mph average exit velocity recently and collected three hits, a homer and two RBIs in Monday's opener. Now he gets Whisenhunt, who has allowed right-handed batters to hit .338 with a 1.013 OPS. Batting eighth limits Smith's plate-appearance ceiling, but this combination prop gives him several paths: two hits, a hit and a run, or another run-producing swing. If Whisenhunt leaves early, Smith then gets a Giants bullpen carrying a 5.83 ERA over its last seven games. I want the over before this matchup cools him off.

THE LONG SHOT

MATT OLSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBAtlanta Braves· +430

Matt Olson is doing something absurd right now — seven home runs in his last fifteen games with an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and the contact data backs it up: 94.9 mph average exit velocity and 5 barrels on just 16 balls in play over that span. That's about as hot as a hitter gets. Nolan McLean is the better arm in this game and has owned this Braves lineup in limited history, but even his damage is selective — left-handed bats have hit him for a .716 OPS and ten home runs this season against a sub-.550 mark from the right side, and his fastball, cutter, and sweeper, nearly half his pitch mix, are the three offerings hitters have squared up hardest against him. He also gave one up his last time out. A dominant start from McLean and a home run from Olson aren't mutually exclusive — they're actually the same story: he can carve up a lineup for six innings and still leave one mistake out over the plate for the hitter running hottest. Truist Park plays neutral, so Olson doesn't need any help from the ballpark to get one out. At plus-430 the market is asking me to pass on a bat that's gone deep in nearly half his games this month, against a pitcher with a real, specific hole for exactly this matchup. I'll take that gap. Give me Olson over 0.5 home runs.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE ALONSOHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +320

Two nights ago in Texas, Alonso had his first multi-homer game since he put on an Orioles uniform, and that swing hasn't cooled off. Look past the box score and the contact quality backs it up — he's barreling balls at a rate few hitters in this lineup can match right now, which tells me the recent power isn't a hot-hand mirage, it's just good hitting. Bailey Ober is walking into tonight without much margin either. His last three starts have gone for a 5-plus ERA and he's missing far fewer bats than he was a month ago. A middle-of-the-order slugger seeing the ball this well, against a pitcher leaking quality starts, is exactly the combination I want on the board. Give me Alonso to go deep again.

THE LONG SHOT

CAM SMITHHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +750

Nobody in this ballpark is hitting the ball harder right now than Cam Smith. He's three home runs and a .500 average over his last week, and he was right in the middle of Monday's extra-innings win with three hits including a homer off this same Giants pitching staff. That's not empty contact — his average exit velocity is sitting at 96 miles an hour over the last two weeks, with three barrels squeezed into just twelve balls in play. Tonight he faces a lefty in Carson Whisenhunt who has been torched by right-handed hitters all season, a .338 average and an OPS over a thousand, and who's allowing hard contact on nearly half the balls put in play against him. The wind is blowing out to center at Oracle tonight, which helps a hitter with this kind of exit velocity more than it helps most. I want the hottest bat in the yard against the arm that can't get righties out.

THE LONG SHOT

CORBIN CARROLLHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +369

The number that jumps out here is Sugano against left-handed hitters: .891 OPS, fifteen home runs in 227 at-bats, essentially a homer every time he turns the lineup over against a lefty bat. Carroll sits at the top of an order that's going to see a lot of him tonight. His average has dipped the last two weeks, but the contact hasn't — nine hard-hit balls in his last twenty-two in play, and his actual slugging is running ahead of his expected slugging, which tells me the quality of contact is there even when the results haven't fully shown up yet. First start in a Rockies uniform for Sugano, a lineup stacked with the exact handedness that gives him trouble, and Carroll leading it off. I like the shot.

THE LONG SHOT

PETE CROW-ARMSTRONGHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +400

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest bat in this lineup, and it isn't close. He's hitting .360 with two home runs over his last week and three over his last fifteen days, and the contact backs up the results — a 93 mile-an-hour average exit velocity and four barreled balls in his last eighteen in play, the best barrel rate of anyone on this board tonight. He walks into a matchup with Jake Irvin, who is a different pitcher at Nationals Park than anywhere else — a 7.04 ERA at home against a 4.38 mark on the road, with a hard-hit rate north of forty percent on the year. Crow-Armstrong leads off a Cubs order that has already hit .296 against Irvin for their careers, and right now he's swinging it better than anyone in it. I like the power here.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSH BELLHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +525

Bell is a switch-hitter riding the best stretch of his season — three homers over his last fifteen games, with one coming just last night, and the underlying contact says this keeps going. He's barreling the ball at a rate that stands out even in a red-hot Twins lineup, and his whiff rate right now is about as low as it gets. Brandon Young, meanwhile, is trending the wrong direction — his outings have gotten shorter start after start, capped by a four-and-a-third-inning showing last time out, and the quality of contact he's allowing has gotten louder as the calendar turned to August. A hitter locked in like this against a starter losing his grip on games is worth a shot at plus-money.

THE LONG SHOT

WILYER ABREUHR OVER 0.5

MLBBoston Red Sox· +650

Wilyer Abreu is doing more right now than anyone in either lineup. Three home runs in his last seven games, five in his last fifteen, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — his average exit velocity over that stretch is 93.3 mph with four barrels on nineteen balls in play. That's a bat currently squaring up everything it sees. The matchup plays right into it. Dylan Cease has been the best pitcher in the league this summer, but the one place he's been hittable is against left-handed power — six home runs allowed to lefties in 246 at-bats against a single homer allowed in 202 right-handed at-bats, with the OPS against lefties nearly double. Abreu bats left-handed and he's swinging the way you'd want a hitter swinging when he steps into that specific split. Cease is going to rack up strikeouts and keep this Boston lineup mostly in check across the board — that part of tonight isn't really in question. But the swing-and-miss doesn't erase what happens on the pitches lefties do connect with, and Abreu is the one hitter here with both the form and the platoon edge to turn one mistake into a home run. At plus money, that's a live enough shot to take.

THE LONG SHOT

BRYCE HARPERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +600

Harper's carrying a 1.057 OPS into tonight with four home runs in his last fifteen games, and he draws a right-hander who's had real trouble with left-handed power all year. Andre Pallante has allowed six home runs to left-handed hitters in just 255 at-bats this season against four in 218 to right-handers — that gap is wide enough to matter, not a small-sample fluke. Harper isn't getting there on empty contact either; his expected numbers track right alongside what he's actually doing, which says the underlying quality is real. It's sitting in the low nineties at Busch Stadium tonight, and hot, thick summer air carries a fly ball better than people think. A dangerous lefty bat in rhythm against a pitcher with a known platoon crack, on a night built for the ball to travel — I like Harper to go deep tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

NOLAN ARENADOHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +575

Arenado went deep off this same bullpen in this same building less than twenty-four hours ago, and that's not an isolated swing — he's got four home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week. Now he gets a pitcher leaning on exactly the pitches that have been getting hit hardest. Sugano throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined forty percent of the time, and hitters are batting .308 and .353 against them, with almost no swing-and-miss on that sinker at all — teams are just squaring it up. Add a hitter-friendly building with the roof shut and a bat that's this hot right now, and I want a piece of it.

THE LONG SHOT

JACKSON CHOURIOHR OVER 0.5

MLBMilwaukee Brewers· +440

Walker Buehler hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six starts, and his season splits explain part of why: right-handed hitters are turning him into home runs at more than double the rate lefties are, even though the lefty numbers look uglier on the surface. Jackson Chourio hits right-handed and is doing exactly the kind of damage that split predicts — four home runs in his last seven games, and he has barreled nearly a third of the balls he's put in play over that stretch. That is not empty contact or a hot streak riding bloop hits, that's a hitter hitting the ball as hard as anyone in this lineup right now, against the one starter on the mound tonight who has been getting hit hard by everybody. Petco plays big and the marine air will knock some fly balls down before they reach the wall — that cuts against every power prop on this board tonight, Chourio included. But he has been squaring up the ball with enough authority lately that the park is a real but beatable obstacle, not the deciding factor. Plus-440 is a fair number for a hitter this hot running into a starter with a real, specific right-handed power problem.

THE LONG SHOT

JUNIOR CAMINEROHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +235

Caminero has gone deep five times in his last fifteen games and two of those came in the last week, including a three-run shot last night in this same ballpark against this same opponent. What sells me on it continuing is the contact underneath the numbers — four barreled balls in his last twenty-two batted balls, exit velocity that says this is legitimate thump and not a hot bounce or two. Mason Barnett gets the ball tonight in his first career look at Tampa Bay, and his last two starts have gone for a combined eight earned runs, three of them home runs he allowed in Cincinnati his last time out. The honest catch is that Barnett actually has a better OPS allowed against right-handers than lefties this season, so Caminero isn't working the friendliest split on paper, and the strikeouts will always be part of his game. But Barnett's hard-contact rate allowed has been ugly against everybody lately, split or no split, and a 0.5 home run number only needs one mistake. At plus-235 with this much recent thunder behind him, I like the swing.

THE LONG SHOT

RAFAEL DEVERSHR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Francisco Giants· +540

Devers has been squaring the ball up all month whether the batting average shows it or not — 95.7 miles an hour average exit velocity over his last two weeks, second only to Cam Smith in this whole matchup, with a pair of barrels among his last 18 balls in play. Hunter Brown is the pitcher tonight, and left-handed hitters have already taken him deep five times in 116 at-bats this season, roughly twice the rate right-handers have managed against him. Devers is exactly the profile that's been finding Brown's mistakes. Oracle Park generally swallows fly balls, but with the wind blowing out to center tonight and Devers hitting the ball as hard as he has been, he doesn't need a favor from the ballpark. Good swing, good matchup, and I'm taking the price.

THE LONG SHOT

JULIO RODRIGUEZHR OVER 0.5

MLBSeattle Mariners· +480

Julio Rodriguez is the one Mariner swinging a hot bat right now, and it isn't subtle — two home runs and four RBI in his last week, three deep over his last fifteen games, a 1.036 OPS in that stretch, and he took one out to left just four days ago. Everything else about this Seattle team has gone cold and quiet, but Rodriguez has kept producing through it. Tonight he draws a left-hander who's been considerably more hittable for power against right-handed bats than lefties all season — Ryan Weathers has allowed fourteen home runs to righties against just three to lefties in a fraction of the at-bats. Rodriguez fits that split exactly, and he gets it in a ballpark that plays fast to the outfield gaps. A hitter this locked in, against a pitcher with that kind of platoon gap, is worth being on. I'm taking the over.

THE LONG SHOT

LUIS GARCIA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +475

No one in this lineup has been hotter than Luis Garcia Jr. Three home runs and eight RBI over his last fifteen games, a .919 OPS in that stretch, and he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen outings — the best recent home run rate of anyone on tonight's board. He's a left-handed bat hitting cleanup in the one ballpark built for exactly that swing, three hundred fourteen feet down the short porch in right. What stands out is how clean the contact has been — a fifteen percent whiff rate, meaning this isn't a hitter getting lucky, he's squaring balls up consistently. Bryan Woo has had a real problem with left-handed power all year, nine homers allowed to lefties against only four to righties, and tonight he walks into a Yankees lineup full of left-handed bats with Garcia right in the middle of it. I like the over.

THE LONG SHOT

MUNETAKA MURAKAMIHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago White Sox· +500

Murakami is the hottest power bat on either roster right now — four home runs in his last fifteen days, and it's backed by real contact quality, not just a couple of lucky yanks: he's barreling the ball at a 20 percent clip over that stretch. He steps in tonight against Nick Lodolo, who's making his first start in a month after a blister sent him to the injured list, and Lodolo wasn't exactly cruising before he left — a 4.60 ERA that flatters him next to a 6.15 expected mark and a 38 percent hard-hit rate allowed. First outing back off a layoff is rarely a pitcher's sharpest, and Murakami is squaring up the ball as well as anybody in this park. I'll take the swing that's already finding barrels against the arm that's finding trouble.

THE LONG SHOT

BRANDON NIMMOHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +365

Nimmo is the hottest bat on this field tonight — ten hits in his last twenty-three at-bats with two homers and seven RBI, and it's not empty contact. He's averaging 91 miles an hour off the bat over his last fifteen games with eleven hard-hit balls in twenty-one tries, and his expected slugging is sitting fifty-six points above his actual slugging, which means the underlying data likes this swing even more than the box score does. He's a lefty stepping into a matchup where left-handed hitters have taken Ryan Johnson deep seven times in 116 at-bats this year, and Johnson has walked nine hitters in his last three starts alone. This is the clearest combination of form and matchup on the board.

THE LONG SHOT

MICKEY MONIAKHR OVER 0.5

MLBColorado Rockies· +680

Bratt has been nearly unhittable against right-handed bats this year, but left-handed hitters have given him trouble even in his short track record — a .979 OPS against, small sample or not. Moniak is the one left-handed bat on this board getting to see him tonight, and he's been quietly the best contact hitter in this Rockies lineup by quality — three barreled balls in his last fifteen in play, the best rate of anyone on this slate, with three home runs over that same stretch. Everything else about tonight points at Arizona, but this is the one matchup on Colorado's side of the field that actually lines up in the hitter's favor.

THE LONG SHOT

DAYLEN LILEHR OVER 0.5

MLBWashington Nationals· +750

Daylen Lile is hitting the ball as hard as anyone on this field right now. Over his last fifteen days he's carrying a 96.6 mile-an-hour average exit velocity with thirteen hard-hit balls and two barrels — both the top marks on this entire board — to go with four home runs in that stretch. He hits left-handed, and Shota Imanaga's split against lefties is an odd one: a lower batting average against than he allows righties, but a higher home run rate — nine homers in 141 at-bats against left-handed hitters compared to sixteen in 358 against right-handers. When a lefty connects against Imanaga, it tends to go a long way, and Lile is the hottest left-handed bat in this Nationals lineup walking in. At this price I only need one mistake pitch to cash it.

THE LONG SHOT

FRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Mets· +600

Francisco Lindor is in the middle of his best two-week stretch of the year — five home runs and thirteen RBI over his last fifteen games, an OPS north of 1.000, and he already went deep in the opener of this series last night. This bat has not cooled off, and it's swinging right into a pitcher this Mets lineup has already solved twice. Martín Pérez has faced this exact group in back-to-back turns this season — early July and again in late July — and gave up a home run both times, one of them a five-inning, eight-hit night that got him chased before the sixth. His fastball has been the pitch that's hurt him most when he's thrown it, and the cutter he leans on over a fifth of the time hasn't missed many bats either. This is a lineup that already knows what to look for from him. At plus-six hundred, the market is treating Lindor like a middle-of-the-pack power bat on a neutral night. He's neither of those right now. I'll ride Lindor for another one tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER O'NEILLHR OVER 0.5

MLBBaltimore Orioles· +390

O'Neill has gone deep four times over his last fifteen games, three of those in just the last week, and that's precisely the kind of run his game is built for — he's going to strike out his share, but when he connects, the ball doesn't stay in the park. He's carrying real thunder into Minnesota after this offense went quiet for stretches against the Rangers. Bailey Ober is walking a tightrope of his own right now, with a 5-plus ERA over his last three turns and a whiff rate that fell off sharply in his most recent outing. O'Neill doesn't need a long at-bat to do damage, and I like him to run into a mistake tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

JOC PEDERSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +282

Pederson has four home runs in his last fifteen days, and the exit velocity behind that stretch is averaging 96 miles an hour — that's not a lucky bounce, that's squared-up contact. He's a left-handed masher walking into a pitcher that lefties are hitting .276 with an .851 OPS and seven homers against this season, and Ryan Johnson's sinker in particular — his most-used pitch — is getting hit at a .383 average and a .507 expected weighted on-base. That's a fastball sitting in the zone waiting to get turned around, and Pederson has the swing to do it.

THE LONG SHOT

FERNANDO TATIS JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBSan Diego Padres· +500

I already made the case that Kyle Harrison is the best pitcher on this field tonight, and I still believe it — but even his ledger has one crack, and it runs directly at this pick. Nine of the ten home runs Harrison has allowed all year have come against right-handed hitters; against lefties he's been almost untouchable. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits right-handed, and he is walking into Petco as hot as anyone in the sport with a bat in his hands — three home runs in his last seven games, five barreled balls in his last 26 in play. That's not a lucky week, that's a hitter squaring up mistakes at a rate that forces pitchers to be perfect, and Harrison's one real soft spot happens to be exactly the side of the plate Tatis swings from. Petco's marine air knocks down fly balls that would leave most parks, and I'm not pretending that isn't real — this park has suppressed home runs all year and it will tonight too. But Tatis has been hitting the ball hard enough this month that the ballpark is a speed bump, not a wall. At plus-500 I don't need this to happen often to make money on it, and the matchup — the exact handedness that has given a very good pitcher his only trouble in 2026 — gives Tatis a live look at least once tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

EUGENIO SUAREZHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +450

Suarez has been putting on a show for a week — two homers in his last seven games, and thirty percent of his balls in play over that stretch have gone for barrels, which is as clean as contact gets. Sean Burke is the best arm in this series and I'm not going to pretend he isn't; he's been dealing all July. But even Burke has allowed a home run in three of his last six starts, and Suarez right now is a hitter finding the sweet spot at an elite rate, established power bat or not. This is a price on a hot bat against a good pitcher, not a sure thing, but the recent contact quality is real.

THE LONG SHOT

TRENT GRISHAMHR OVER 0.5

MLBNew York Yankees· +390

Trent Grisham leads off for New York and he's putting together some of the cleanest at-bats in this lineup right now — two home runs over his last fifteen games, one of them two nights ago, with a nineteen percent whiff rate and a twenty-six percent chase rate that are both the best marks on the roster. That's a hitter seeing the ball well, not just running hot. He gets that swing tonight against Bryan Woo, a fly-ball pitcher who has given up considerably more power to lefties than righties this season, in a ballpark where fly balls carry. Leading off means Grisham sees an extra at-bat over the course of the night too. I like the over.

THE LONG SHOT

JORDAN WALKERHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +550

Walker already put one 432 feet against Colorado this week, and Marmol's still talking about it. Tonight he draws Cristopher Sánchez, and the platoon split there is about as lopsided as it gets — Sánchez has allowed twelve home runs to right-handed hitters in 439 at-bats this season and just one to lefties in 145. Walker's average exit velocity hasn't popped this month, but three of his last seventeen balls in play have gone for barrels, and that barrel rate says the contact quality is ahead of the batting average. He'll swing and miss his share against a pitcher who's been missing plenty of bats his last few times out, but this prop only needs one good swing to land, and the wind blowing out to left field at Busch tonight sets up well for a right-handed hitter working the pull side.

THE LONG SHOT

MIKE TROUTHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +350

Trout went deep last night, a 418-foot blast off Gore to lead off the game, and even in a rough week at the plate the power hasn't gone anywhere — two homers in his last seven games with two barrels off just twelve balls in play. That's superstar underlying data even when the average says otherwise. Cody Bradford is making just his second start back from elbow surgery, and what little we've seen is a pitcher who lives in the air — a 0.14 groundout-to-flyout ratio is about as extreme a fly-ball tilt as you'll find, and hitters already put a hard-hit rate of 46 percent on him in his return outing. Trout doesn't need much of an opening against a pitcher this determined to keep the ball off the ground.

THE LONG SHOT

YANDY DIAZHR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +460

Diaz is squaring the ball up as hard as anyone in this lineup right now, and he's doing it without the swing-and-miss that usually comes with that kind of exit velocity — that combination is what makes this price worth taking. He's hitting the ball hard on more than half his balls in play over his recent stretch, averaging better than 94 miles an hour off the bat, and he opened last night's game with a leadoff homer that carried 439 feet in this same yard. He's a right-handed hitter, and Barnett has actually been tougher on righties than lefties this season by the numbers, so I'm not leaning on a platoon edge here — I'm leaning on contact quality that's been loud regardless of who's on the mound, and Barnett's overall hard-hit rate allowed is high enough this year that I don't think handedness is doing much protecting for him. Diaz won't run into one every night — his game is built more on hard contact than pure power totals — but the exit velocity the last two weeks says the ball is jumping off his bat right now. Plus-460 is a fair number to bet that continues for one more night.

THE LONG SHOT

CHRISTIAN WALKERHR OVER 0.5

MLBHouston Astros· +569

Walker's been productive all week — five hits and three RBI in his last nineteen at-bats, and before that a stretch of fourteen hits in 48 with a pair of homers — and the exit velocity backs it up at better than 91 miles an hour lately. He's a right-handed bat catching a left-hander tonight in Whisenhunt, who's been hit hard on nearly half the balls in play against him and has struggled to get through a lineup full of right-handed power. Walker's barrel rate isn't at the level of the other bats I like tonight, but he's hitting the ball hard consistently in a matchup built for him to do damage. I'll take a shot on the barrel finding a fence with the wind blowing out.

THE LONG SHOT

IAN HAPPHR OVER 0.5

MLBChicago Cubs· +500

Ian Happ is a week removed from an 0-for-22 slump, and he broke out of it the way switch-hitters with real power usually do — a home run Saturday, another two-run shot Sunday, five hits in his last seven at-bats to close out the Royals series. That shows up in the contact quality too, an 89.4 mile-an-hour average exit velocity with six hard-hit balls in his last twelve in play. He steps in tonight against Jake Irvin, a pitcher who has let hard contact leave the ballpark all season and is worse than that at Nationals Park specifically. Happ has swing-and-miss in his game and always will, but he is seeing the ball well right now, and when he connects it travels.

THE LONG SHOT

ROYCE LEWISHR OVER 0.5

MLBMinnesota Twins· +410

Lewis is doing everything right at the plate right now — a .380 average with three homers and eleven RBI over his last fifteen games, and he carried that form straight into this series with a two-hit night in the opener. Brandon Young hasn't worked into the seventh inning in three straight starts, and this same Twins lineup already lit up Baltimore's pitching for nine runs one night ago. Lewis is swinging a hot bat against a staff that just gave this lineup a runway, and I'll ride him to add another souvenir tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

KYLE SCHWARBERHR OVER 0.5

MLBPhiladelphia Phillies· +390

Schwarber already put one Toronto reliever in the second deck twice in the same game this past week after working through a brief power drought, and tonight's matchup plays right to his swing. Pallante has allowed six homers to left-handed hitters in just 255 at-bats this season, well above his rate against right-handers, and Schwarber's barrel rate over his recent stretch is pushing eighteen percent — he's squaring the ball up more than he's missing it right now. It's a scorching night at Busch Stadium, and hot air carries a fly ball further than a cool one. The price is short because everyone in the building knows what Schwarber can do to a baseball, but a soft-platoon right-hander on a hot night is exactly the spot he does it in.

THE LONG SHOT

KETEL MARTEHR OVER 0.5

MLBArizona Diamondbacks· +400

Marte's a switch-hitter, so he's in the box left-handed against Sugano tonight, and that's the side Sugano has struggled with all year — an .891 OPS and a home run every fifteen at-bats or so against left-handed bats. Marte's overall numbers have cooled the last two weeks, but he's still barreling the ball at a healthy clip recently and he went deep the last time he got a good pitch to hit. Hitting in the middle of an Arizona lineup that just hung nine runs on this pitching staff last night, against a starter making his first start for this club and leaking hard contact on his top two pitches, this is a reasonable price to take a swing on him going deep again.

THE LONG SHOT

TYLER STEPHENSONHR OVER 0.5

MLBCincinnati Reds· +575

Stephenson doesn't jump off the page the way some of the bigger names on this board do, but the last two weeks tell a different story — a .973 OPS, and four barrels out of his last fourteen balls in play, the best recent contact-quality read on either roster. That's a hitter whose swing is clicking right now. Burke makes this a tough ask, and the price reflects it, but Stephenson is seeing the ball as well as he has all season, and that kind of form tends to produce a mistake-pitch payoff sooner rather than later.

THE LONG SHOT

JOSE SIRIHR OVER 0.5

MLBLos Angeles Angels· +480

Siri has gone deep twice in his last seven games, and the Statcast read on that stretch is loud — 100.9 miles an hour average exit velocity with two barrels on just eight balls in play. He's going to swing and miss, the whiff and chase rates are both high right now, but at this price I don't need him to hit for average, I need one mistake left over the plate, and right now every time he connects the ball is carrying. A fly-ball-prone left-hander still finding his rhythm off an injury is exactly the kind of arm that gives up that mistake.

THE LONG SHOT

IVAN HERRERAHR OVER 0.5

MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +900

Herrera's got the best contact number on this whole board — his average exit velocity over his last stretch sits at 95.6 miles an hour, which is elite no matter what the box score says. Right now the box score says .429 for the week, so he's finding the barrel even though the power total hasn't fully caught up yet. He's a right-handed bat against Cristopher Sánchez, and Sánchez has been a completely different pitcher depending on which side of the plate he's facing this year — twelve homers allowed to right-handers, one to lefties, on a nearly even split of at-bats. That's not noise, that's a real weakness, and Herrera profiles as exactly the hitter to find it. The wind's blowing out to left field at Busch tonight too, which helps a right-handed bat working the other way. I don't need this to happen often at this price — I just need it to happen once tonight.

THE LONG SHOT

VICTOR MESA JR.HR OVER 0.5

MLBTampa Bay Rays· +410

Mesa's at-bats have been inconsistent this season, but when he squares a ball up lately it's been legitimately crushed — five barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, the best contact-quality read on this whole board, and a home run three days ago that cleared the fence by better than four hundred feet. He's in the lineup tonight batting sixth, and he gets the version of Barnett that's given up significantly more production to left-handed hitters than right-handed ones this season. That platoon gap layered on top of a barrel rate running this hot is enough for me to take a swing here, even with the caveat that his sample size is thinner than the other names on this board and his playing time hasn't been fully steady. This is the one prop tonight where I'm betting what the contact quality is telling me over what the box score shows, and at plus-410 that's a price worth taking that swing at.

THE LONG SHOT

COREY SEAGERHR OVER 0.5

MLBTexas Rangers· +300

Seager's actual numbers understate how well he's hitting the ball — ten hard-hit balls in his last twenty-one in play, and his expected slugging is seventy points above his actual slugging on the season, which tells me the results are due to catch up to the contact quality. He's a lefty with real pop stepping into a Ryan Johnson start that left-handed hitters have already hit for an .851 OPS this year. I want a piece of the gap between what Seager's been hitting and what the scoreboard shows.

GARY'S PICK

BLAKE SNELLPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5

MLBLos Angeles Dodgers· +138

This is a workload bet, not a verdict on Blake Snell. He is making his first big-league start in three months, with roughly 75-80 pitches to work with, and his final rehab appearance required 73 pitches to record just 11 outs. To beat this number, he must complete the fifth inning. At plus money, I'm betting Dave Roberts protects the returning arm and goes to the bullpen after four-plus.

GARY'S PICK

MICHAEL WACHAPITCHER EARNED RUNS UNDER 3.5

MLBKansas City Royals· -142

Wacha has allowed four earned runs across his last three starts, covering 18⅔ innings, and he has completed at least six innings in four of his last five. The Dodgers remain dangerous at the top, but they have averaged only 3.5 runs over their last ten games and several hitters in the lower half are scuffling. Wacha can give up some traffic without surrendering four earned runs, and that is the distinction I'm buying.

Research

159

BULLPENCIN @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 19.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago's already run nine different arms out there across three games, and that's before you get to Sandlin's 96-pitch outing — that's basically a spot start out of the pen, he's not part of tonight. Newcomb and Hudson have both worked the last two days too, so if either shows up tonight it's an out or two, not an inning. Whoever starts for the White Sox needs to give some length, because this pen's already been leaned on hard before the Reds even show up.
TEAM RECORDTB @ OAK
Athletics 0-8 in Mason Barnett's last 8 starts
Oakland's lost all eight of Mason Barnett's starts this season, and that's not really on him — it's the pen turning close games into losses and the lineup going cold right when he needs a run. That pattern doesn't just reset because Tampa's in town, especially with Nick Martinez on the mound for a Rays team that's been cashing behind him all year.
BULLPENBOS @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto's pen has already gone nine deep across three games, five of those arms touched more than once, and Rogers working both of the last two days makes him the one least likely to go a third straight look tonight. Woods Richardson's the outlier — three innings on 45 pitches in one outing — so if the Jays need length against Boston instead of a matchup arm, that's the profile they lean on.
TEAM RECORDBOS @ TOR
Red Sox 5-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts
Boston's 5-0 as a team every time Patrick Sandoval takes the ball, and that's not one bat carrying it — it's the lineup and the bullpen both showing up together, start after start. Same group makes the trip to Toronto tonight, same rhythm, different mound to defend.
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 3rd against Paul Skenes (RHP)
Griffin Conine hitting third against a right-hander is the exact matchup that's given pitchers trouble all year, and Skenes is throwing from the side that plays right into it. That's a real advantage sitting in the middle of Miami's order tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ DET
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Drew Anderson (RHP), batting 4th
Nathaniel Lowe against a right-hander is simply the hitter he's been all season, and batting cleanup means Drew Anderson doesn't get to pitch around him — whatever gets on ahead of him is Lowe's to drive in. There's no lefty-shy version of Lowe here for Anderson to hope for.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCLE @ DET
Guardians are 6-0 vs Tigers this season
Cleveland's swept the season series from Detroit, 6-0, and took the last meeting 3-1. That's a full season of head-to-head results the Tigers have to answer for walking into tonight.
TEAM RECORDTB @ OAK
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Tampa Bay's 6-1 when Nick Martinez starts, and tonight they run into an Oakland team that hasn't won a single game its own starter has pitched all season. That's about as wide a gap as you'll find between two teams on their starter's night.
TEAM RECORDPHI @ STL
Phillies 6-1 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 7 starts
Philadelphia's 6-1 with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, and the one loss in there is proof this isn't automatic — which makes the run mean more, not less. They carry that form on the road into St. Louis tonight, same lineup, same rhythm.
STREAKTB @ OAK
TB have won 6 straight
6 wins in a row for TB, a +15 run margin across the streak — they come in 8-2 over their last 10.
P team won 12-4
CUT LISTCOL tonight
Tomoyuki Sugano
Sugano's showing a 4.51 ERA, but the xERA underneath it is 7.15 — a 2.64-run gap between what the process says and what the results say. That's the widest split of the three names here, and it's not close. A gap that size means the surface number has been propped up by something other than performance, and if you're holding him in a season-long format, you're betting that keeps happening every fifth day. He starts tonight, so tonight's line either starts closing that gap or stretches it further. Cut. A near-3-run gap between xERA and ERA is too big to hold through on hope.
BULLPENKC @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nobody in the Dodgers pen is walking in fully fresh, but nobody's walking in cooked either — six of eight arms have pitched twice this stretch without any single one getting overexposed. Hernández is the closest thing to a rested arm with just one outing, but really Los Angeles can go to almost anybody in that pen against Kansas City tonight.
PLATOON EDGECHC @ WSH
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Brady House against a lefty from the third spot is a completely different hitter than the one same-side pitching sees, and Imanaga is walking right into that gap tonight. With the top of the order often on ahead of him, House is exactly the bat that turns one mistake into multiple runs.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
PLATOON EDGECHC @ WSH
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Dylan Crews leading off against a left-hander is Imanaga running into trouble before the game even has a shape — no runners, no history built up, just a leadoff bat that's handled lefties well all year seeing that look first. He has to find his command immediately or this starts working against him from pitch one.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
PLATOON EDGEHOU @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Hunter Brown (RHP), batting 6th
Gilbert's .773 against right-handers over 209 at-bats compared to barely a pulse against lefties — Brown throws right-handed, so Gilbert gets the only half of the platoon that's worked. Sixth in the order is still deep enough to cash in behind the top of the lineup.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIA
Esmerlyn Valdez: .465 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Esmerlyn Valdez's cold stretch is thin enough — under 40 plate appearances — that it could just as easily be bad luck as a broken swing, but tonight doesn't hand him an easy way out of it. Eury Perez was already a tough matchup for him before the slump started.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
TEAM RECORDCIN @ CHW
White Sox 6-2 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
White Sox are 6-2 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
PLATOON EDGEMIL @ SD
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's .900 against right-handers comes from 321 at-bats, towering over his .588 against lefties. Buehler's a righty and Turang leads off, so the table-setter starts the night in his best matchup.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
PLATOON EDGEPHI @ STL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper against a right-hander from the three-hole is about as lopsided a matchup as this slate offers, and Pallante throws from exactly that side. There's no soft-pitch plan that changes what this at-bat is — the best version of the best hitter in this lineup, with traffic already possible in front of him.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
TEAM RECORDBAL @ MIN
Twins 6-2 in Bailey Ober's last 8 starts
Minnesota's 6-2 on Bailey Ober's turns and riding its best stretch of the season doing it — the bats, the bullpen, all of it working together right now. Baltimore's got a similar level of support behind its own guy, so this is two teams playing well on their starter's night, but the Twins are the hotter club walking in.
PLATOON EDGEPIT @ MIA
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Eury Perez (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe hitting second against a right-hander is a full season of proof, not a hot week, and the two-hole means he's getting extra looks at Perez before the game settles into any kind of pattern. If Perez isn't sharp early, Lowe's the hitter built to make him pay for it more than once.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
BULLPENPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Rangel's 55-pitch relief outing is the one real fatigue flag in Philadelphia's pen — that's the kind of workload that usually costs a few days, not a look tonight. Everybody else who pitched twice this stretch kept their pitch counts light, Duran especially at just 27 total across two outings, so the Phillies are actually in good shape to get outs against St. Louis.
PLATOON EDGEBAL @ MIN
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Brandon Young (RHP)
Trevor Larnach leading off against a right-hander is the tested, proven version of this at-bat, not the thin look he gets against lefties, and Brandon Young has to establish himself immediately against it. That's the identity version of this hitter opening the game, not a question mark.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
HR THREATRoyals @ Dodgers
Jac Caglianone
Gary's Take He's running the hottest bat on this entire slate — five homers and a 1.141 OPS over his last fifteen games, and that power surge has come with real contact behind it, not just a couple of lucky flares. He's barreling the ball as hard as anyone in this lineup right now.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKBAL @ MIN
Royce Lewis: 1.095 OPS in Last 15 Days
Royce Lewis's last two weeks aren't a couple of lucky nights rounding up — that big a window with this much power behind it says the swing itself is different right now. Thirteen home runs on the year already, and this stretch says he's fully online tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKKC @ LAD
Jac Caglianone: 1.141 OPS in Last 15 Days
He was hitting well before this stretch even started, so this looks like a good bat getting better rather than a fluke. Twenty-one homers on the season, and the total bases number tonight barely asks for one clean hit.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFSEA @ NYY
Ben Rice: .490 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bryan Woo
Ben Rice's dip over just 46 plate appearances looks more like bad breaks than a broken swing, and tonight hands him a pitcher type he's handled well all year in Bryan Woo. This is the kind of matchup where a correction tends to show up first.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKHOU @ SF
Cam Smith: 1.126 OPS in Last 15 Days
Forty-one plate appearances is a smaller window, fair to view with a little skepticism, but sixteen homers on the year says the pop was never the question. One squared-up ball tonight clears the number they've set for him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HR THREATPhillies @ Cardinals
Bryce Harper
Gary's Take Harper's gone deep four times in his last fifteen games, and the quality of contact underneath that stretch is even better than the results — his expected slugging and expected weighted on-base are both a step ahead of his actual numbers, which tells me he's barreling balls that haven't all found the seats yet. Pallante is a different pitcher against left-handed hitters than he is against right-handers — a .707 OPS and six homers allowed in limited left-handed at-bats is a real crack in his season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
PLATOON EDGECOL @ ARI
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Lars Nootbaar leading off against a right-hander is a real, dependable step up from what he does against lefties, and that's exactly the edge that matters most before a pitcher's found his release point. Sugano opens the game against the better version of this hitter.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADBOS @ TOR
Blue Jays are 8-5 vs Red Sox this season
Blue Jays lead the season series 8-5 over Red Sox. TOR won the last meeting 5-3.
COOLING OFFCHC @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .652 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
CJ Abrams has looked a step slow over 55 plate appearances now, and Imanaga is already the tougher release point for him even healthy. A hitter searching for his timing rarely finds it against the side of the plate that's given him the most trouble all year.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADCOL @ ARI
Diamondbacks are 7-4 vs Rockies this season
Arizona's taken the season series from Colorado 7-4, and the last meeting wasn't close — a 9-0 blowout. The Diamondbacks have had this team's number all year, and tonight's just the next chapter.
COOLING OFFTEX @ LAA
Zach Neto: .401 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cody Bradford
Zach Neto's two-week slide is real over 56 plate appearances, but Cody Bradford happens to be exactly the type of arm that's brought out the better version of him all season. Left-handers are the one release point where he's actually outproduced his own numbers, so tonight's a good spot for it to turn.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HEAD-TO-HEADNYM @ ATL
Mets are 7-4 vs Braves this season
New York's owned this series all year, 7-4 over Atlanta with an 8-5 win in the last meeting. That's a season's worth of head-to-head results the Mets carry into tonight's game.
PLATOON EDGESEA @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.914 OPS, 316 AB) sits well above his .588 mark the other way (60 AB). Tonight's starter Bryan Woo throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
HR THREATMets @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson's been the hottest power bat in either dugout — seven home runs in his last fifteen games, and the contact underneath that stretch backs it up, not just balls finding grass. He's squaring balls up and driving them, not getting lucky bounces.
P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATPirates @ Marlins
Griffin Conine
Gary's Take Conine is running the hottest power stretch on either roster right now — five home runs and a .968 OPS over his last fifteen games, capped by a two-homer night his last time out. He's not just hot in a part-time role, either.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HR THREATOrioles @ Twins
Pete Alonso
Gary's Take Two nights ago in Texas, Alonso had his first multi-homer game since he put on an Orioles uniform, and that swing hasn't cooled off. Look past the box score and the contact quality backs it up — he's barreling balls at a rate few hitters in this lineup can match right now, which tells me the recent power isn't a hot-hand mirage, it's just good hitting.
P 1 HR — 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
STARTER FORMPIT @ MIA
Paul Skenes: 8.16 ERA over his last 3 starts
Paul Skenes' command has come apart the last three times out — a WHIP pushing past 1.70 says he's missing the zone, not just running into tough luck on balls in play. The season ERA still reads like a frontline arm, but it hasn't caught up to a stretch that's come with shorter outings and real damage. Miami gets whichever version shows up tonight, and lately it hasn't been the one on the season line.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
BALLPARKBAL @ MIN
Bailey Ober owns a 2.72 ERA at Target Field — 6.75 everywhere else
Bailey Ober turns into a completely different pitcher at Target Field — 2.72 ERA and hitters at .194 off him at home, against a 6.75 mark everywhere else. That split's held up across 53 innings there, which is real, and Baltimore sees the home version of him tonight.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
BULLPENTB @ OAK
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Wells and Matz have carried the bulk-innings load for Tampa's pen this stretch, three innings apiece across two outings each, and both have already gone twice in three days. Roycroft and Legumina are the freshest arms in the group, one look apiece at 25 pitches or fewer, so if the starter doesn't go deep tonight against Oakland, this pen gets pushed right back to the two names who've already carried it.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Francisco Lindor: 1.033 OPS in Last 15 Days
Francisco Lindor's climb over this stretch says something in the approach actually shifted, not just a couple of loud games padding the line. Eleven home runs on the season backs the power up, and nothing about the shape of this run looks like it's slowing down tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKMIL @ SD
Jackson Merrill: .987 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's already got nineteen home runs this season, so this isn't a light bat suddenly finding pop — it's an established slugger climbing even higher. Right now he's playing the best baseball of his year.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ WSH
Alex Bregman: .974 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman's stretch is the most durable case on the board tonight — sixty plate appearances of real production, not a heater that flames out in a week. A dozen home runs on the year backs up that the pop behind it is legitimate.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFPIT @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .580 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Otto Lopez's trouble against right-handers was already real before the last two weeks turned cold — 353 at-bats worth of a genuine weakness — and Skenes landing on the schedule tonight makes it worse timing, not better. When a slump overlaps with the one pitcher type that's always given a hitter trouble, neither problem cancels the other out.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
HEAT CHECKPHI @ STL
Bryson Stott: 1.099 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bryson Stott's never been a power bat — eight home runs on the year says this surge is coming from sharper decisions and harder contact, not a sudden power spike. That's a long enough stretch to trust it's real.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
CLOSER WATCHCIN @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Taylor's out front 6-4 on saves, but both arms sit at 8 holds -- that's a team spreading high-leverage innings, not a locked-in ninth. He's fully rested off one outing in the last three games, and Chicago's -166 at home on Cincinnati, so there should be a lead to protect. Live spot, shared job. Start Taylor if he's rostered, but budget for Hudson stealing one this week -- this is a two-man committee with matching workload, not a hierarchy that happens to carry a committee label.
COOLING OFFPHI @ STL
Brandon Marsh: .460 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
Brandon Marsh's production against right-handers over 314 at-bats doesn't just vanish in two bad weeks, and Pallante is exactly the type he's had success against for a long stretch. This reads much more like results lagging behind quality contact than a swing that's actually broken.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
TWO STARTSColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Monday's start at the Diamondbacks is already on the books, so the only decision left on this sheet is Saturday, on the road at the Giants. That 2.42 xERA is the best number anywhere in this group of two-start arms, full stop — nothing about a split road week changes what he's done all season. Best number in the tier. Saturday's the only start left to make, and it's an easy yes.
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.51 ERA vs 7.15 xERA
Sugano's actual numbers don't match the contact he's allowing — a barrel rate near 14 percent and hard contact in almost 44 percent of at-bats, and the .264 he's actually allowed is running nearly 50 points under what that contact should earn hitters. With just 5.1 strikeouts per nine, there's no swing-and-miss cushion if that contact luck turns, and Arizona's a good spot for it to turn tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
HR THREATPhillies @ Cardinals
Kyle Schwarber
Gary's Take Schwarber is the most obvious power threat on this board, which is why the price is short, but I still want a piece of it. He hit two out against Toronto earlier this week, and the batted-ball data behind that game backs it up — three barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and an exit velocity reading well above average.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
HEAT CHECKCHC @ WSH
Nico Hoerner: .959 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nico Hoerner's rise over this stretch looks like a hitter locked in on pitch recognition and finding the barrel more often, not two good nights rounding up. He's making pitchers earn every single out right now.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
BATTER VS ARMKC @ LAD
Freddie Freeman vs Michael Wacha: .533
Freeman's 8-for-15 with five walks against Wacha for his career — a 1.450 OPS in a small sample, but a loud one. He's not walking in cold either, sitting around .733 over his last fifteen games.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
The Monday trip to the Padres is done — and that was actually the same game Casey Mize started on the other side, so anyone rostering both arms got a direct head-to-head Monday. What's left is Saturday at the Dodgers, with rotation mate Kyle Harrison running the identical trip one day behind him the whole week: Padres then Dodgers for both. Season xERA of 2.62 trails only Hughes in this group. One road start banked, one more at the Dodgers Saturday — stays a top-two arm in the tier all week.
STREAKTB @ OAK
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 4.3 runs a night against an average line of 8.3. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 16 vs 10.5
STREAKCOL @ ARI
ARI games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for ARI — their games are producing only 5.5 runs against numbers around 8.9. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 5 vs 10.5
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll
An .802 OPS hitting second is an every-day lineup-anchor number on its own, and tonight he draws Tomoyuki Sugano and that 7.16 xERA — a pitcher currently struggling. That's a matchup you circle. MUST_ADD, full stop — there's no format where Carroll sits on waivers tonight.
STREAKSEA @ NYY
SEA have lost 4 straight
Seattle Mariners have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 16 runs over the skid; 3-7 across their last 10.
P team lost 1-4
HEAT CHECKBAL @ MIN
Coby Mayo: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
Coby Mayo's fifteen home runs this season say the power backing this stretch is real, not a product of the hot streak itself. A half-base total tonight is about as easy an ask as this slate offers a hitter running this hot.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
COOLING OFFKC @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .427 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Wacha
Edman's full-season production sits well above this two-week stretch, and a gap that size for a hitter with his track record usually comes down to luck. Wacha's right-handed, where Edman's done his best career damage — a reasonable spot for his numbers to look like himself again.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ ARI
James McCann
A .304 average carrying an .807 OPS from the catcher spot is already a job for your roster before the matchup even factors in — line him up against that same laboring Sugano (7.16 xERA) and it's a two-part case: the role, and the spot. MUST_ADD — a catcher-eligible bat hitting .304 doesn't sit in any format, and tonight's matchup only adds to it.
COOLING OFFBOS @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .493 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Ernie Clement's dip over 54 trips to the plate is mild enough to be a normal cold spell any everyday hitter runs into, but Sandoval is already a tough release point for him even in a good week. This sets up more as a grind of an at-bat than a night he breaks out.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PLATOON EDGECIN @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.896 OPS, 112 AB) sits well above his .630 mark the other way (60 AB). Tonight's starter Nick Lodolo throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
James McCann: .304 AVG vs .223 xBA
James McCann's average is running a full 81 points ahead of what his actual contact supports, and that gap is showing up in barely 100 trips to the plate. The further a hitter gets out in front of what he's actually hitting, the harder that snapback tends to be.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
RUNNING GAMEPIT @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Henry Davis (48% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
This is a fight neither side backs down from — Davis has the arm to make Miami pay for testing him, and Miami's speed is good enough to make him prove it anyway. Every stolen base is a free trip into scoring position, every runner he throws out kills a rally before it becomes a run.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
STARTER FORMSEA @ NYY
Ryan Weathers: 0.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Weathers is missing bats right now instead of just managing contact — seventeen strikeouts over his last three starts and a WHIP well below his season mark. The book on him is still built around a mid-3s ERA, which means New York's about to see a sharper pitcher than his reputation suggests.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
COOLING OFFNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .555 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Drake Baldwin's slump carries real weight over 58 plate appearances, but tonight's matchup does a lot of the lifting regardless — right-handers are already the release point that lifts him furthest above his own season level, and McLean gives him exactly that look.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
TWO STARTSToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Both turns are at home in Toronto — the Red Sox today, the Yankees closing the week out Sunday. The Red Sox actually catch two arms off this sheet this week, since they also draw Skenes in Pittsburgh on Sunday, so I'll be watching how that lineup answers a tough matchup twice in the same week. Season xERA of 2.70 is third-best in the group, behind only Hughes and Henderson. Two home turns, third-cleanest number in the tier — start him today and again Sunday without hesitation.
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Nick Lodolo
Lodolo's ERA sits at 4.6 — a number that keeps him rosterable on the surface. But his xERA is 6.14, a 1.54-run gap. That's real separation between the results and the process, even if it's not as extreme as some. He's on the mound tonight, which is one more chance for the gap to close the wrong way before you have to make this call again next week. Cut, or at least stop trusting the ERA — the process number says this is closer to a streaming arm than a roster piece.
PLATOON EDGECLE @ DET
Kevin McGonigle (bats L) hits 1st against Tanner Bibee (RHP)
Over 310 AB vs. Right, Kevin McGonigle owns a .872 OPS versus .685 in 127 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tanner Bibee tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
PLATOON EDGECLE @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Dillon Dingler's vs. Right line (.926 OPS, 290 AB) sits well above his .715 mark the other way (125 AB). Tonight's starter Tanner Bibee throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
STARTER FORMTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 10.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Johnson isn't having a rough three starts, he's having the same year he's had all along, just louder — a season ERA already north of seven, and now a WHIP past 2.0 with fourteen earned runs in his last three turns. Nothing in this stretch points toward a correction, and Texas hands him the ball again tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
HEAT CHECKCLE @ DET
Colt Keith: 1.125 OPS in Last 15 Days
Colt Keith's two-week surge is the smallest window in this group, but he's already got eight home runs on the year backing up that the pop is real. A half-base total tonight is about as low a bar as this slate sets for anyone running hot.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
TWO STARTSPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/10
Paul Skenes
He's on the road at the Marlins today, then comes home to close the week against the Red Sox Sunday — the same Red Sox lineup Cease deals with today in Toronto. A 3.01 xERA is tied with Harrison for the middle of the group, with only Bradford and Mize carrying a higher number. Two clean turns on this sheet — take him on the road today and at home Sunday, no second thoughts.
CLOSER WATCHSEA @ NYY
David Bednar
Bednar at 26 saves to Yarbrough's 2 is a real hierarchy, not a committee in name only. Yankees favored -130 at home on Seattle gives him a lead to work with. Only flag is workload -- two outings in the last three days, even tagged fully rested, is enough recent volume that a team skips a low-stakes night on schedule alone. Still the most trustworthy save in this group. Roster him with confidence, just don't be shocked if a comfortable lead tonight goes to a fresh arm instead, purely on recent usage.
TWO STARTSMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Kyle Harrison
He's on the mound at the Padres today, a day behind Henderson on the exact same trip, then follows him into the Dodgers series Sunday. A 3.01 xERA is tied with Skenes for the middle of the group — nothing on this sheet suggests either turn plays any different than the ones before it. Running Henderson's exact trip a day later — start him with the same confidence both times out.
TWO STARTSLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Monday's home start against the Royals already happened. What's still ahead is Saturday, and it's a notable one — the Brewers, the same club sending both Henderson and Harrison out this week, come to him at home. A 2.99 xERA is better than every arm in this group except Hughes, Henderson, and Cease. Monday's locked in — start him again Saturday against the Brewers with the same confidence.
HEAT CHECKNYM @ ATL
Carson Benge: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 47 PA: a .986 OPS versus .742 for the season, 0.244 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
HEAT CHECKPIT @ MIA
Jakob Marsee: .984 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .984 OPS spans the last 15 days (34 PA) against a .637 season baseline, a 0.347 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
CUT LISTSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Starts tonight for SF — 6.72 xERA behind a 7.25 ERA.
BULLPENPIT @ MIA
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Yates working both of the last two days is the clearest fatigue flag in Pittsburgh's pen, and Sisk isn't far behind at 61 pitches across his two outings this stretch. Doval and Soto are the freshest arms in the group, one look apiece in the 20-pitch range, so a close game against Miami tonight is more likely to run through them.
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ ARI
Nolan Arenado
A .755 OPS with the average sitting at .242 isn't the pitch by itself, but the reason to care today is who's on the mound across from him — Sugano, 7.16 xERA, currently struggling. STREAM tier is the honest call — start him for the Sugano matchup, don't marry the roster spot beyond it.
STARTER FORMCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
Nick Lodolo's strikeouts are climbing while the runs dry up, and his WHIP has actually dropped below where it's sat all season — that's not soft-contact luck, that's real. Cincinnati's sending the best version of him tonight against the White Sox.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFCLE @ DET
Brayan Rocchio: .408 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Anderson
Brayan Rocchio's .408 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .692 season mark, down 0.284. Tonight he draws RHP Drew Anderson — his stronger side: a .707 OPS vs RHP across 280 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
BALLPARKCHC @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Jake Irvin pitches to a 7.04 ERA
Jake Irvin is somehow worse at home than on the road — hitters near .330 against him at Nationals Park and an ERA over two runs higher than his away work, holding up across 23 innings. The Cubs get a real crack at the more hittable version of him tonight.
P 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
BULLPENTEX @ LAA
Texas Rangers pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
COOLING OFFBAL @ MIN
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: .372 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .372 OPS spans the last 15 days (28 PA) against a .755 season baseline, a 0.383 drop.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSCOL @ ARI
Ketel Marte
Same shape as Arenado — .75 OPS, .247 average, nothing loud in the everyday line — but batting cleanup against a Sugano start (7.16 xERA, struggling) is tonight's reason to care. STREAM tier — a matchup play against Sugano tonight, not an add-and-forget.
TWO STARTSNew York Mets — week of 8/10
Christian Scott
The weakest number on this list at 3.79, which is exactly why he's a streamer and not a plan-around arm. Monday's Braves start already happened. What's left is Sunday at home against the Nationals. One start left - stream him for that Sunday matchup, don't hand him the lineup spot automatically.
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Nick Martinez's numbers are mostly earned — a hard-hit rate barely over 32 percent and a barrel rate near 7 percent both say the contact against him really is soft. There's a little extra shine on top, the average allowed running 32 points under what that contact should produce, but with strikeouts modest at 5.1 per nine, he needs that contact management to keep holding up tonight.
P 9 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
TWO STARTSTexas Rangers — week of 8/10
Cody Bradford
Both turns are on the road this week, the Angels today and the Athletics closing it out Sunday — the only arm in this group not seeing a single inning at home. A 3.18 xERA is the second-highest number in the tier — only Mize's is higher — but he still made a list I'm calling Plan Around, and that's worth something on its own. Full road slate, still a start-with-confidence week — take both turns.
TWO STARTSSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Astros (played), Sat 8/15 vs Rockies (proj). 3.15 xERA this season.
TWO STARTSSan Diego Padres — week of 8/10
Casey Mize
Monday's home start against the Brewers is done — worth noting, that's the same game Henderson took the ball for on the other side, so that one came with a built-in measuring stick. What's left is Saturday on the road at the Guardians. A 3.34 xERA is the highest number in this group, but that says more about how strong this whole tier is than it does about him. One turn banked against a fellow tier arm, one more at the Guardians Saturday — stays in the plan-around group.
TOMORROWCOL @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 4.88 ERA vs 6.98 xERA
Merrill Kelly's getting hit hard — better than 44 percent hard contact and a barrel rate over 12 percent — and the .274 he's actually allowed is running 26 points under the .300 his contact earns hitters. That's more about where the ball's found grass than anything he's doing to prevent it, and Colorado gets a look at that bill tomorrow.
TOMORROWNYM @ ATL
Zac Thornton: 2.52 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
Zac Thornton's contact management is nothing special — hard-hit rate near 40 percent, barrel rate under 9 — but the average he's actually allowed is running 51 points under what that contact earns hitters. A gap that size doesn't sit on ordinary contact for long, and Atlanta gets a look at him tomorrow with that cushion due.
BALLPARKTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 5.92 at Angel Stadium
Ryan Johnson's actually the better version of himself at home — 5.92 at Angel Stadium against an 8.20 mark everywhere else, with hitters at .240 off him there. Still not good, but it's the more manageable version, and it's the one the Rangers see tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
COOLING OFFCLE @ DET
Riley Greene: .586 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
Riley Greene's .586 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .815 season mark, down 0.229. Tonight he draws RHP Tanner Bibee — his stronger side: a .869 OPS vs RHP across 292 AB.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ CHW
Miguel Vargas
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .810 OPS, bats 3rd.
STARTER FORMPHI @ STL
Andre Pallante: 1.45 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andre Pallante's allowed three earned runs combined over his last three turns, and his WHIP has dropped well below his season mark right along with it — that's command, not luck. The 3.63 on the season is carrying a lot of starts that look nothing like his last three, and Philadelphia's the one who has to deal with the version that's been shutting lineups down.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ CHW
Randal Grichuk
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .804 OPS, bats 4th.
REGRESSIONCOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak: .274 AVG vs .225 xBA
302 plate appearances behind this, a real sample, and both the average and the deeper numbers have outrun the contact quality the whole way. A gap that's held up this long doesn't have to unwind all at once, but it caps how much higher this realistically goes.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Zack Gelof: .277 AVG vs .228 xBA
251 plate appearances of the results consistently running ahead of how well he's actually squaring the ball up. Gaps like that tend to shrink as the sample grows, not the other way around.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Chandler Simpson: .305 AVG vs .258 xBA
Simpson's carried this same gap for 445 plate appearances — basically the whole season — and it hasn't closed once. When a gap survives that much playing time, I trust the contact quality over the batting average.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
TOMORROWPHI @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.44 ERA vs 5.22 xERA
Kyle Leahy's allowing loud contact — hard-hit rate near 49 percent, barrel rate over 10 — and unlike some of these gaps, the average he's allowing is close to what that contact actually earns, just 11 points off. So whatever's propping up the ERA isn't balls dying in gloves, it's how the hits have been timed, and that kind of sequencing luck is usually the first thing to go. Philadelphia gets a look at him tomorrow with the loud contact still very much in play.
BALLPARKCLE @ DET
At Comerica Park, Drew Anderson pitches to a 2.97 ERA
Drew Anderson turns into a different pitcher at Comerica Park — 2.97 ERA and hitters batting .182 off him there, against a 5.03 mark everywhere else. That split's held up across 19 home starts, which is a real sample, and it's the version Cleveland sees tonight.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
CUT LISTCIN tonight
Hector Rodriguez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.497 OPS, 0.154 AVG from the 6-hole.
STARTER FORMCHC @ WSH
Shota Imanaga: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Shota Imanaga's allowed three runs across his last three starts, and the walks have stayed just as rare as they've been all season — this isn't a guy who found something new, it's one who was already sharp tightening up further. Washington's catching him at his best in a month.
P 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIA
Jake Mangum: .303 AVG vs .257 xBA
349 plate appearances in and Mangum's average still hasn't come back down to what his contact quality says it should be. That's too big a sample to call a hot streak — I'd expect the number bleeding toward .257 before it stops.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
REGRESSIONCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 4.6 ERA vs 6.14 xERA
Lodolo's strikeout stuff backs up the season number — 7.2 punchouts per nine and a barrel rate under 8 percent both say he can miss bats and keep contact tame. The traffic's the real concern, a WHIP near 1.47, but the average he's allowing is only about 15 points under what his contact earns him — a small assist, not a lucky number. That swing-and-miss stuff travels to Chicago tonight, though with that many runners on, one bad inning is always in play.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
Still hitting 2nd for TOR — 0.578 OPS, 0.222 AVG from the 2-hole.
REGRESSIONTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.11 ERA vs 5.72 xERA
Nothing about Ryan Johnson's line is bad luck — a WHIP pushing 1.6 and a barrel rate near 11 percent both say the traffic and contact have been a genuine problem. On top of that shaky process, he's allowing .280 against, 11 points worse than the .269 his own contact quality earns him. Texas gets a pitcher tonight who's pitching poorly and getting unlucky on top of it.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
CUT LISTCHW tonight
Brenton Doyle
Still hitting 1st for CHW — 0.577 OPS, 0.221 AVG from the 1-hole.
PARK WEATHERHOU @ SF
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Oracle Park usually kills fly balls to center, but ten out and a clear 65 degrees changes that tonight. An 8 total already needs offense from both sides — if balls that normally die on the track start reaching the wall, that number's in trouble early.
P final total 5 vs 8 (over lean)
BALLPARKPHI @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.34 ERA
Here's the wrinkle with Pallante — as good as he's been lately, Busch Stadium hasn't actually been kind to him. He's a 4.34 ERA there over a long track record, against 2.55 everywhere else, with hitters at .276 off him in St. Louis. Home field hasn't been the advantage you'd assume for him tonight.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
RUNNING GAMEMIL @ SD
San Diego Padres like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras throws out 40% of runners, one of the best marks in the league, and San Diego's going to test him anyway. That's strength on strength on the bases tonight, not a free run for anybody.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
FANTASY PICKUPSCIN @ CHW
Colson Montgomery
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .741 OPS, bats 6th.
HEAT CHECKCLE @ DET
Spencer Torkelson: .871 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a .871 OPS, up 0.133 on his .738 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
REGRESSIONCHC @ WSH
Nico Hoerner: .260 AVG vs .298 xBA
Hoerner's actual average sits 38 points below what his contact quality says it should be, and that gap has held for 515 plate appearances — basically his whole season. The wOBA shortfall says the same thing from a different angle, which makes this a hitter still owed some hits, not one who ran cold for a week.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
REGRESSIONPIT @ MIA
Spencer Horwitz: .269 AVG vs .231 xBA
Horwitz is hitting .269 with the batted-ball profile of a .231 hitter, and 321 plate appearances is too much runway for that gap to just be noise. The power's mostly earned — the wOBA gap is much tighter — but the average is carrying more than the contact underneath it has paid for.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
PARK WEATHERPHI @ STL
95° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
It's 95 degrees at Busch with the wind blowing straight out to center, and those two things stack instead of canceling out — fly balls that die on the track most nights just keep carrying tonight. Both lineups get that benefit, and pitchers lose whatever margin they'd normally have working up in the zone, which makes that 7.5 total worth a second look.
P final total 2 vs 7.5 (over lean)
STARTER FORMTB @ OAK
Mason Barnett: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12.7 IP) he has been tagged for 10 earned runs — a 7.11 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP (1.38 season) against a 5.56 season mark.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
TOMORROWMIL @ SD
Robbie Ray: 3.24 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Robbie Ray's underlying numbers actually back up the ERA — a barrel rate near 8 percent is genuinely good, and the average he's allowing is only about 10 points off what that contact should produce, which is as tight as these gaps get. San Diego gets him tomorrow against Milwaukee with that foundation intact.
BULLPENTEX @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
CLOSER WATCHBOS @ TOR
Louis Varland
Varland's the closer, not Rogers -- 4 saves against 23 holds makes Rogers a bridge arm, not a threat to the job. Toronto's -152 over Boston sets up a save chance if the lead holds. The real issue is he threw yesterday and has two outings in the last three games -- that's back-to-back-day work on a closer. Role's not in question, health of the workload is. Treat tonight as a game-time watch rather than an automatic save -- a short-rest closer in a comfortable favorite's spot is exactly when teams hand the ninth to someone else.
REGRESSIONTB @ OAK
Mason Barnett: 5.56 ERA vs 4.41 xERA
Mason Barnett's strikeout stuff jumps out — 9.5 per nine is a real weapon — and the average hitters are actually managing against him is right in line with what his contact quality earns. When the swing-and-miss is that good and the average checks out, an ERA running over a run above the expected number usually means the runs came in bunches, not that the stuff's missing. The process says he's pitching better than an 0-8 record and a 5.56 ERA let on.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ WSH
Seiya Suzuki
Pickup vs Jake Irvin (5.4 xERA) — .831 OPS, bats 2nd.
BATTER VS ARMCHC @ WSH
Michael Busch vs Jake Irvin: .364
Busch has flat-out had Irvin's number — .364 across eleven at-bats is a hitter who's actually squared him up, not someone getting lucky bloops. His form elsewhere hasn't been much lately, but tonight puts him back in front of a pitcher he's already proven he can beat, and that matters more right now than the rest of his swing.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
CUT LISTLAA tonight
Ryan Johnson
Johnson's the outlier of the group. His ERA is 7.11 — uglier on the surface than either Sugano's or Lodolo's — but his xERA is 5.72, better than his own results by 1.39 runs. That's the reverse pattern from the other two: process has been outperforming results, not the other way around. He starts tonight same as the others, but the case for cutting him on ERA alone ignores that the underlying number is pulling in the opposite direction. Hold. The gap here favors the pitcher — cutting him off the ERA line alone would be reading the wrong number.
CUT LISTTOR tonight
Charles McAdoo
Still hitting 1st for TOR — 0.622 OPS, 0.185 AVG from the 1-hole.
STARTER FORMKC @ LAD
Michael Wacha: 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18.7 innings, 4 earned runs, 11 Ks. That 1.93 ERA sits 1.51 runs under his 3.44 season number.
P 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
REGRESSIONBOS @ TOR
Patrick Sandoval: 3.38 ERA vs 4.48 xERA
The baserunners have been there all year — a 1.67 WHIP — but the damage hasn't followed, with barrels almost nonexistent at 4.1% and a strikeout rate near 9.4 that gives him a way out of the innings where traffic piles up. That's a hittable pitcher missing enough bats at the right moments, not a low-contact guy getting lucky, and the traffic against Toronto will be there again regardless.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
RETURN WATCHARI — return listed 8/14
Jordan Lawlar
Hamstring, only the 10-day list, targeted for August 14 — three days away. He's sitting on a 0.856 OPS this season. Easy stash. Short IL stint, strong bat, three days out — there's no case for cutting him.
RETURN WATCHPIT — return listed 8/14
Oneil Cruz
Hand injury, 60-day list, but the listing has him back August 14 — three days out. He carries a 0.822 OPS into this absence. Stash. Three days from a return on a 0.822 OPS bat isn't a real decision — just don't treat that date as locked until he's actually back.
TOMORROWBOS @ TOR
José Soriano: 3.24 ERA vs 4.38 xERA
José Soriano's got real skill underneath this — a barrel rate under 8 percent even with a more middle-of-the-road hard-hit rate — but the average he's allowing is running 25 points under what that contact earns hitters, a genuine cushion on top of an already solid process. Toronto has him tomorrow against Boston with both the skill and the extra help still built into that number.
FIRST INNINGCHC @ WSH
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CHC @ WSH
Both sides of this one have come out hitting all year — each club's scored a first-inning run in seven of its last ten games, which is a heavy number to see from both teams in the same matchup. The damage against tonight's starter has mostly come in one swing rather than a rally, five homers in 23 first innings, and with the total sitting almost even, this reads like a first inning that's live, not a formality.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
RUNNING GAMETB @ OAK
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 15%
Jonah Heim's thrown out 7 of 48 base stealers this year — 15% — and Tampa Bay attempts 1.3 steals a game. That's as green as a light gets. Track meet incoming.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Rib injury, 60-day list, listed to return August 15 — four days out. His season ERA is 3.18. Stash if you've got the bullpen space. A 3.18 arm four days from returning is a cheap hold, not a must-have.
CLOSER WATCHHOU @ SF
Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith
Walker's 3-2 save edge over Smith is basically nothing, and Smith's got double the holds -- 6 to 3 -- which says he may already be seeing the tougher outs. Both arms are fully rested with zero outings in the last three games, so usage isn't tipping this either way. What matters more: Giants are a big +168 underdog at home on Houston, meaning a ninth-inning lead to protect is the exception tonight, not the plan. Skip this one for saves this week. The committee itself is a real coin flip, but the bigger problem is San Francisco isn't favored to even be in a save situation.
FANTASY PICKUPSSEA @ NYY
Bryan Woo
Woo's ERA (4.31) is running well above his xERA (3.62) — a near-0.7-run gap between what he's allowed and what the process says he should allow. A 9 K/9 and a sharp 1.12 WHIP back the process side: he's missing bats and limiting traffic on the bases, so the ugly ERA reads like the outlier, not his true level. This one's on the road, SEA @ NYY, and he's still sitting at DEEP tier even with that skill profile in place. Deep-league managers needing rotation depth should add him now — the strikeout and WHIP numbers are ahead of the ERA, and DEEP availability means the wire hasn't priced that in yet. Best fit for someone who can stomach one road start while the ERA works back toward that 3.62 xERA.
BALLPARKBOS @ TOR
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 2.86 ERA
Dylan Cease is nasty everywhere, but Rogers Centre is actually the tougher building for him — a 2.86 ERA there against 1.71 on the road, even with hitters still only batting .201 off him at home. Toronto's still a hard climb for Boston tonight, just a little less extreme than his road number suggests.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
REGRESSIONHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
San Francisco's 10-20 in one-run games, a .333 mark that's about as extreme as these get, and that kind of number usually finds its way back toward .500 over time. If that's been dragging the overall record down, the Giants might be a better team than the record shows walking into tonight against Houston.
TOMORROWKC @ LAD
Daniel Lynch IV: 2.46 ERA vs 3.37 xERA
Daniel Lynch IV is avoiding loud contact almost entirely — a 5 percent barrel rate is about as clean as it gets, backed up by a hard-hit rate near 34. There's a real results boost layered on top — the average he's allowed running 38 points under what that contact should produce — but the ERA itself is only about nine-tenths of a run under the expected number, so the skill's doing most of the work, not the luck. Kansas City gets a start from him tomorrow against the Dodgers on about as sturdy a foundation as you'll find.
FIRST INNINGSEA @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
The Yankees haven't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games, and it's not because they've run into great pitching — both arms on the mound tonight have allowed real contact early this season. That's a lineup that needs a few batters to get comfortable, not a matchup problem, and tonight's starters aren't the kind that should keep the streak alive.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
REGRESSIONPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies are 21-11 in one-run games (.656 win%)
Philadelphia's 21-11 in one-run games, a .656 mark on the extreme end in the other direction. That overall record might be flattering them a little more than the rest of the roster earns heading into St. Louis tonight.
FIRST INNINGBAL @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Minnesota hasn't scored a first-inning run in ten games, but tonight's number still leans toward one landing somewhere in this game. Ober's been locked in from the jump all year, sub-.220 against with the long ball rare, so it's a stretch to expect the Twins to be the ones who snap it. Young's allowed more early contact on the other side, which is the more likely source if a run does show up.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
TOMORROWTEX @ LAA
Cal Quantrill: 3.56 ERA vs 4.45 xERA
Quantrill's tomorrow's name against the Angels — 3.56 ERA outrunning a 4.45 expected mark by close to a run, backed up by a .237-against average that's beating its own .254 expected number.
REGRESSIONBAL @ MIN
Baltimore Orioles are 10-18 in one-run games (.357 win%)
Baltimore's 10-18 in one-run games, a .357 mark that leans toward the extreme, and that kind of number tends to even out over time. The Orioles might be a tougher out than their overall record suggests walking into Minnesota tonight.
FANTASY PICKUPSCHC @ WSH
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga is the cleaner profile of the two — his 3.6 ERA is actually a shade better than his 3.73 xERA, so there's no hidden inflation here, just performance that matches the process. A 1.09 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 are both strong marks on their own, even trailing Woo's 9 K/9. He gets WSH in this one, and he's still sitting at DEEP tier despite the profile checking every box. Deep-league managers should add him too, with more confidence than Woo since nothing here needs positive regression to work — the ERA and the underlying number already agree. Best fit for someone who wants a stable rotation piece rather than a bet on a number correcting.
TOMORROWNYM @ ATL
Tyler Mahle: 4.83 ERA vs 4 xERA
Tyler Mahle's contact quality is actually solid — a barrel rate under 7 percent says hitters aren't finding the sweet spot much — but he's allowing .259 against, 18 points worse than what that contact earns hitters. That's a good process getting outkicked by how the hits have landed, and Atlanta gets him tomorrow against the Mets with better stuff than that ERA is showing.
RUNNING GAMEBOS @ TOR
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 16%
Alejandro Kirk's caught just 10 of 63 attempted base stealers — 16% — and Boston's already stolen 93 bags this season. Every incentive says they keep running tonight.
P Boston Red Sox stole 2 bases
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Hand injury, 10-day list, targeted for August 17 — six days out. The bat has been light this season: a 0.693 OPS. Tough to justify holding. Six days isn't long, but a 0.693 OPS bat hasn't earned the bench spot — let him go if you need the room.
RUNNING GAMEPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pagés isn't a soft target behind the plate — a 33% caught-stealing rate means Philadelphia takes on real risk every time it sends a runner instead of just banking an easy bag. Win that battle and St. Louis gets an out its pitcher didn't have to earn himself; lose it and the Phillies have a free runner in scoring position. However those throws go tonight will move more runs than most individual at-bats will.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 1 base
RETURN WATCHTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Knee injury, 60-day list, listed back for August 18 — seven days out. He's been sharp: a 2.04 ERA on the season. Stash if the roster allows it. A 2.04 ERA arm is worth a week's wait — just don't treat the date as guaranteed.
FIRST INNINGTEX @ LAA
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Texas has scored one first-inning run in its last ten games, about as cold a stretch as a lineup can have to open a game. But the pitching across from them has been just as shaky early — an 8.10 first-inning mark with three homers allowed in ten innings — and tonight's number sides with that shaky arm over the cold bats.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
FIRST INNINGHOU @ SF
SF have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Francisco's managed one first-inning run in its last ten games, and tonight's number agrees another quiet one is more likely than not. Brown's kept his first innings clean too, a 2.45 mark with the long ball showing up just once in eleven innings, so a cold offense running into a pitcher who limits early damage isn't a combination that usually produces fireworks.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
RETURN WATCHTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, targeted for August 20 — nine days out. His season ERA sits at 3.38. Low-priority stash. Nine days out on a middling ERA with a shoulder issue on a 60-day tag isn't worth fighting for unless the bench spot is free anyway.
RETURN WATCHKC — return listed 8/21
Nick Mears
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, targeted for August 21 — 10 days out. He's struggled this season: a 5.12 ERA. Cut him. Ten days away carrying a 5.12 ERA isn't worth protecting.
RETURN WATCHLAD — return listed 8/21
Gavin Stone
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, listed to return August 21 — 10 days out. There's no season line available to work with. Speculative at best. No stat to lean on and 10 days out — only stash if it costs you nothing.

Graded results

Games

W
Marlins ML +103
MLB · 0-2
L
Mets ML +117
MLB · 0-4
W
Cubs ML -169
MLB · 8-6
W
Blue Jays ML -129
MLB · 3-5
W
Yankees ML -129
MLB · 1-4
L
Twins ML -109
MLB · 5-2
W
Tigers ML -136
MLB · 4-6
L
Phillies ML -162
MLB · 0-2
L
White Sox ML -148
MLB · 5-4
L
Rangers ML -142
MLB · 2-3
W
Rays -1.5 -123
MLB · 12-4
L
Brewers ML -126
MLB · 2-11
L
Diamondbacks ML -165
MLB · 3-2
L
Astros -1.5 -119
MLB · 1-4
W
Royals +1.5 +104
MLB · 4-5

Props

L
Angel Martinez · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Bailey Ober · under
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 4
L
Blake Snell · under
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 18
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Brandon Nimmo · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Cam Smith · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 2
L
Cam Smith · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Carson Whisenhunt · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 1
W
Chandler Simpson · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Cody Bradford · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 21
L
Cole Young · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Corbin Carroll · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Corey Seager · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Daylen Lile · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Dillon Dingler · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Drew Anderson · under
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 4
L
Dylan Cease · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 15
W
Eugenio Suarez · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 1
W
Eury Perez · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 7
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Garrett Mitchell · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Griffin Conine · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Ian Happ · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jake Irvin · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 5
W
JJ Wetherholt · under
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Joc Pederson · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 1
L
Jordan Walker · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Josh Bell · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Julio Rodriguez · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
W
Ketel Marte · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Kevin McGonigle · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Martin Perez · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mason Barnett · under
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 12
W
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 1
W
Michael Wacha · under
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 3
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Mike Trout · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Mitch Bratt · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Nick Lodolo · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Nolan Arenado · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Nolan McLean · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 3
L
Patrick Sandoval · under
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 18
W
Paul Skenes · under
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 15
W
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Rafael Devers · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Royce Lewis · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Royce Lewis · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Ryan Johnson · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 13
W
Ryan Weathers · under
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 4
W
Sean Burke · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 21
L
Shota Imanaga · under
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 4
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Trent Grisham · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Tyler Stephenson · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
W
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1