Daily archive

2026-08-11

The stored Gary board for Tue, Aug 11. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB6:40 PM

Guardians @ Tigers

The Tigers are back home in Detroit on a warm August night, playing their first game since the trade deadline took a big bite out of their starting pitching — and somebody forgot to tell this team it was supposed to fold. They just wrapped up a road trip through Seattle, Sacramento, and San Francisco where they won almost every game, shut the other team out completely four times, and barely let anybody score on them — all while everyone was writing them off. Cleveland, on the other hand, limps into town after a players-only meeting, with their manager Stephen Vogt publicly admitting his club is pressing, and they've lost far more than they've won lately. This looks like a group grinding against itself. Now, the history says Cleveland — they've beaten Detroit every single time they've played this year, including a sweep at this very ballpark back in May. I respect that, and I threw it out anyway, because those games were played by teams that don't exist anymore. Tonight's Cleveland lineup has four everyday players who've been ice cold at the plate for the past two weeks, and they're walking into a Detroit pitching plan built for exactly this spot: Drew Anderson brings a hard fastball and a changeup that makes hitters look silly for the first few innings, and then a rested bullpen takes over — one that just went three straight games without giving up a single run. Cleveland's bullpen is the mirror image: they've been getting hammered all week, their best relievers have been used hard two days in a row, and there's no safety net if their starter, Bibee, doesn't pitch deep into the game. Bibee's been solid, but he's not missing bats the way his results suggest — hitters are seeing him better than the numbers on paper admit — and Detroit's bats, guys like Dingler, Torkelson, Keith, and McKinstry, are squaring up everything right now. This is a bet on the team playing well now versus the team that used to win these matchups, and I'll take the hot hand when the history was written by different rosters. Detroit is the hotter team, the healthier lineup, the fresher bullpen, and they're home in front of a crowd that's been waiting two weeks to see what this club is made of without Skubal. The price is fair for what I'm getting. I'm betting the Tigers to win the game outright.

Tigers ML-136

CONF

66%

MLB6:40 PM

Pirates @ Marlins

Tuesday night in Miami, and the big story is Paul Skenes on the mound. The betting shops are still making Pittsburgh the favorite basically because of his name — the guy won the award for best pitcher in the league. But I've watched him over the last month, and this isn't the same arm. His fastball has lost noticeable speed from last season, he hasn't hit his old top gear all year, and in his last three starts he's been handing out way too many free passes while giving up runs at an ugly rate. He can still make hitters swing and miss, but when a pitcher can't put the ball where he wants against a lineup that works long, patient at-bats, that's how a famous name gets pulled early and leaves his team in trouble. Meanwhile, Miami is sending out Eury Pérez, who has quietly been the better pitcher for the last six weeks. He barely gave up anything through July, he's pitched deep into the game six starts in a row, and his fastball is still coming in scorching hot. Here's what really decides it for me: Pérez shuts down left-handed hitters — they barely get hits off him, let alone anything hit hard. And almost all of Pittsburgh's offense right now comes from Brandon Lowe and the other lefty bats around him. Take those guys away and you're left with a bottom of the lineup that's been chasing pitches it can't hit, an outfield missing Ryan O'Hearn, and a team that's lost seven of its last ten games while barely scoring. I don't trust that group against a guy throwing this well. Yes, Miami loses Kyle Stowers today, and that hurts — he'd been their best hitter for two months. But this lineup is deeper than people think: Griffin Conine is on a serious home-run tear, Sanoja and Marsee are both hitting the ball hard, and this team has been dominant at home since late May, winning about two out of every three games in this park. When the hotter pitcher, the hotter offense, and the home-field edge all point the same way — and the bookies are paying you a little extra just because the other side has a star name on the mound — you don't overthink it. I'm taking the Marlins to win the game outright.

Marlins ML+103

CONF

64%

MLB6:45 PM

Cubs @ Nationals

The Cubs come into Washington on a Monday night as one of the hottest teams in baseball, even if nobody's talking about them. They've won series after series on the road, and their starting pitchers just carried them through more than two weeks of games without a single day off — and never wobbled. The Nationals are feeling good after sweeping their last home series, but their starter tonight, Jake Irvin, is stuck facing the wrong lineup at the wrong time. The real story is Chicago's starter, Shota Imanaga. Over his last few outings he's been almost untouchable — barely giving up any runs, piling up strikeouts, and hardly walking anyone. When he's on, his fastball and his diving splitter look identical out of his hand, and hitters keep chasing that splitter into the dirt and coming up empty. Washington's lineup is missing its best hitter, James Wood, and it's full of rookies and back-end bats who have never faced Imanaga before. Irvin, on the other hand, is getting hit hard right now — some of the loudest contact allowed by any pitcher in the league — and he's been far worse at home than anywhere else. The Cubs have hit him well their whole careers, and guys like Bregman, Hoerner, and Crow-Armstrong are seeing the ball as well as anyone on the team right now. Give the Nationals credit — the sweep was real, and their rebuilt bullpen has earned the praise. But that sweep came against a losing team, while the Cubs were busy beating the Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays over the same stretch. Everywhere you look, Chicago has the edge: they play cleaner defense than almost anyone, their bullpen is deeper, and their lineup is dangerous from top to bottom. The price on the Cubs isn't cheap, but it's a fair one to pay for the clearly better team with the clearly better pitcher, and I'll pay it. Cubs to win is the play.

Cubs ML-169

CONF

70%

MLB7:05 PM

Mariners @ Yankees

The Yankees and Mariners walk into the same ballpark Monday night going in completely opposite directions. New York just spent a week grinding out tight, tense wins against a good Atlanta team — every game came down to the wire and they kept finding ways. Seattle just got swept at home, has lost several in a row, and now starts a long stretch away from home against exactly the kind of pitching that's been giving them fits. Here's what seals it for me: Josh Naylor sits out tonight with a wrist problem, and he was the only Seattle hitter doing any real damage lately — he carried them over the weekend while the rest of the bats went silent. Take him out and this is a lineup that's barely been scratching across a run or two a night, with backup-caliber hitters filling out the bottom of the order and half the guys ice cold. Meanwhile, Ryan Weathers makes his first start as a Yankee riding the hottest stretch of his season — over his last several outings, teams have barely touched him — and his best pitch is a nightmare for a lineup that's been chasing bad pitches all month. Seattle's starter, Bryan Woo, is talented and has pitched well against New York before, but he gives up a lot of balls in the air, and Yankee Stadium's short right-field fence is waiting for a lineup full of lefty hitters. One mistake changes everything in a game this tight. I'll be honest — the Yankees' bats have been cold too. But this game is going to come down to the bullpens, and that's where the gap really shows. New York's relievers have been the best part of this team all year, and they're rested and ready. Seattle's relievers have been giving up runs all week, and if it's close in the late innings, I know exactly which side I trust to close it out. The Yankees don't need a huge night — just a few runs and a clean finish from the pen, and everything about this matchup says they get both. I'm taking the Yankees to win the game straight up.

Yankees ML-129

CONF

64%

MLB7:15 PM

Mets @ Braves

The Braves are in first place, but here's the weird part — the last-place Mets keep beating them anyway. New York already took the first game of this series by jumping out to a huge early lead, and they've won most of the matchups between these two teams this year. Tonight the Mets send out the best pitcher of this series, while Atlanta answers with an aging lefty who's been getting by on smoke and mirrors. That lefty, Martín Pérez, looks fine on paper, but dig in and it falls apart. The Mets are one of the teams that have hit him hardest lately — they knocked him around badly the last two times they saw him. And this New York lineup is loaded with right-handed hitters who feast on lefties, guys like Bo Bichette, who's swinging as hot as anybody in baseball right now. The whole offense has been pouring on runs all week. Pérez almost never pitches deep into games, which means Atlanta's relievers have to cover a huge chunk of the night — and they've already been worked hard several times in the past few days. Even a good bullpen wears down when it's asked to do that much. On the other side, Nolan McLean has already shut this Braves lineup down in this very ballpark earlier this summer, and Atlanta's hitters have barely touched him. He's got the heavy fastball and the nasty breaking stuff to keep their left-handed hitters guessing all night. Here's the kicker: the betting market is actually paying me extra to take the team with the better pitcher, the hotter bats, and total control of this rivalry. Atlanta's record says they should be the favorite, but records don't take the mound — the actual matchup does, and this one has gone New York's way all year. Give me the Mets to win outright, and I'm not sweating it one bit.

Mets ML+117

CONF

62%

MLB7:40 PM

Orioles @ Twins

I'm taking the Twins to win tonight. Baltimore just watched one of their old pitchers shut them down in the first game of this series, and now they're handing the ball to a rookie who's been struggling. On paper his season looks fine, but he's been getting pulled from games earlier and earlier every time out, and hitters have been squaring him up a lot harder than his numbers suggest. That's a bad recipe against a Minnesota lineup that's swinging it well right now — Josh Bell is on fire, Royce Lewis has been locked in for a couple weeks, and this same Twins offense just piled up a big number against this same Baltimore staff. Minnesota's starter is the other half of the story. Bailey Ober is a totally different pitcher at home — dominant in Minneapolis, shaky everywhere else — and the Orioles' hitters have basically done nothing against him over the years. Their best young hitter, Gunnar Henderson, is in a brutal cold stretch, and the lineup they're running out tonight is full of the kind of hitters Ober handles just fine. And if this game ends up in the bullpens' hands — which seems likely with Baltimore's starter not lasting deep into games lately — that's another win for the Twins. The Orioles' relievers have been getting hammered the past few days and their go-to arms are worn out, while Minnesota's bullpen is rested and stocked with fresh arms after their recent moves. When the price is basically a coin flip and one side has the better pitcher tonight, the hotter bats, and the fresher bullpen, that's the side I want. Give me the Twins.

Twins ML-109

CONF

64%

MLB7:40 PM

Reds @ White Sox

Tuesday night in Chicago, and the White Sox are the hottest team in their own building. They've won almost every game for the past week and a half and they're piling up runs while doing it. Cincinnati, meanwhile, just got swept in Washington and could barely score at all. One of these teams is rolling, and the other one has forgotten how to hit. For me, this game comes down to the pitchers. Chicago's Sean Burke has been about as good as anyone in the league for the past month — hardly giving up runs, striking guys out left and right while barely walking anybody, and it doesn't matter if the batter hits lefty or righty, he handles them all. The Reds can't build a lineup that gives him trouble. On the other side, Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo is coming back from a month on the shelf with a blister, with just one short warm-up outing under his belt. He won't be able to pitch very long, and honestly, even before he got hurt, hitters were squaring him up way too often. So here's the picture: Burke can carry Chicago deep into the night, while the Reds have to hand the ball to a shaky relief crew for half the game against a lineup that's been mashing for two weeks. And what is Cincinnati even bringing to the plate? They've barely been scoring lately, the bottom of their batting order is ice cold, and they just got swept by Washington while managing almost nothing in the last two games. I'm not trusting that group to figure out the hottest pitcher around, in his home park, with his crowd behind him. Chicago is the better team right now on the mound, at the plate, and in the bullpen, and the price to back them is small. Give me the White Sox to win this game straight up.

White Sox ML-148

CONF

72%

MLB7:45 PM

Phillies @ Cardinals

It's a brutally hot August night in St. Louis, and my Phillies already snatched the first game of this series from a Cardinals team that keeps fighting but keeps falling just short. Now Philadelphia hands the ball to its best pitcher — and that changes everything about how this series feels. Cristopher Sánchez has been dominant all year, the best arm on either team in this matchup. And the way the Phillies handled the opener matters just as much. They leaned on a young starter and their long relievers specifically so their three best late-game arms could rest — meaning Sánchez can hand things off to a fresh, fully loaded bullpen. On the other side, Andre Pallante has pitched well lately, but he's been noticeably worse at his own home ballpark than on the road all season, and now he has to face a Phillies lineup loaded with dangerous left-handed hitters — Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, and a scorching-hot Bryson Stott — exactly the kind of bats that give him trouble. Credit to St. Louis: they built their lineup smartly, stacking it with right-handed hitters because that's where Sánchez has shown some weakness, and Ivan Herrera is swinging as well as anybody in baseball right now. That's a real path for the Cardinals. But when I stack a coin-flip counterpunch against the better team, the better starter, the fresher bullpen, and a Phillies club that's been winning constantly and plays every tight game like it expects to come out on top, I know where I stand. I thought about taking the Phillies to win by multiple runs for a bigger payout, but these two just played a one-run game and the Cardinals don't roll over at home — so I'm not paying for the extra cushion. Give me the Phillies to simply win the game. Phillies to win straight up is the play.

Phillies ML-162

CONF

63%

MLB7:07 PM

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

I'm taking the Blue Jays to win tonight in Toronto. The Red Sox are back in the same building where their long winning streak came to an end, and this time they have to deal with the best pitcher Toronto can offer. The reason is simple: no game tonight has a bigger difference between the two starting pitchers. Dylan Cease has been about as good as any pitcher in the league lately — over his last few starts, teams have barely scored on him at all while he's been racking up strikeouts. And the last time he faced this exact Boston lineup, back in July in Boston's own ballpark, he went the whole game, gave up just one hit, and struck out a dozen batters. Hitters on both sides of the plate have had a miserable time against him all year, and he pitches deep into games, so Toronto's best relievers only have to finish things off. Boston's starter, Patrick Sandoval, is a different story. He's still working his way back from elbow surgery that cost him two seasons, and while his numbers look decent on the surface, he's walking too many batters, letting runners on constantly, and hasn't made it through six innings all year. That means Boston's bullpen has to carry a huge chunk of this game against a Toronto lineup that's come alive since the trade deadline, with the hot hitters moving up and the top of the order producing again. The argument against this pick is that Boston has been the hottest team in baseball for the past month, and their hitters are for real. But they scored just one run in this same ballpark last night against a much worse pitcher, and Cease already showed them once this summer how badly this matchup can go for them. When one team's ace is going deep into the game and the other team is scrambling for outs from the middle innings on, you take the ace — especially when the price to back him isn't steep. I like the Blue Jays to win this one behind their best pitcher, and I don't think Boston ever gets close enough to make it interesting.

Blue Jays ML-129

CONF

68%

MLB9:38 PM

Rangers @ Angels

Tuesday night in Anaheim, and this game is really a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Rangers come in red hot, winning almost every game for the past week, sitting right on the doorstep of first place in their division, and playing like a team that knows every game matters from here on out. The Angels? They're buried near the bottom of the standings, they just traded away a big chunk of their roster, and they fired their entire pitching coaching staff in the middle of the season. One team is chasing the playoffs. The other is playing for next year. This game comes down to the Angels' starting pitcher, Ryan Johnson, and I don't like his chances. The rookie has been getting hammered lately — he's giving up a ton of runs, letting way too many guys reach base, and his best pitch is getting hit hard almost every time he throws it. He's also throwing noticeably slower than he did last year, and over his last few starts he's been wild, walking batters and bleeding runs. Now he has to face a Texas lineup loading up with left-handed hitters, and lefties have absolutely feasted on him all year. The hottest of them, Brandon Nimmo, has been on fire this past week with a couple of home runs. Johnson hasn't even made it through five innings in three straight starts, and when he leaves early, an Angels bullpen that's been worn down all week and just blew another late game gets exposed again. The other side seals it for me. Cody Bradford looked sharp in his first start back from elbow surgery, shutting out San Francisco into the fifth inning, and he doesn't need to be a hero tonight because the Rangers' bullpen has quietly been the strength of this hot streak — rested, deep, and barely giving up anything all week. Meanwhile, the Angels can barely score, with Zach Neto and Mike Trout both ice cold at the plate. They needed extra innings just to lose last night, and tonight's pitching matchup tilts even further toward Texas. The Rangers to win the game straight up is the play, even though you have to risk a little extra to get it.

Rangers ML-142

CONF

68%

MLB9:40 PM

Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Tuesday night in the desert with the roof closed, and the Diamondbacks come in playing great baseball — comfortably above five hundred, holding a playoff spot, fresh off beating the Dodgers and blanking these same Rockies the night before without giving up a single run. Colorado, meanwhile, is deep in a losing season, rebuilding, in the middle of a road trip, and handing the ball to Tomoyuki Sugano for his very first start with the team. That's the stage, and I don't like it for the visitors. Here's the heart of it: Sugano's numbers look decent on paper, but they're hiding the truth. Hitters have been crushing the ball against him all year — squaring up his fastball and sinker — and left-handed batters especially have treated him like batting practice, hitting him hard and taking him deep over and over. Now he walks into a ballpark that's friendly to hitters and has to face Lars Nootbaar, Corbin Carroll, and Ketel Marte stacked right at the top of Arizona's order — exactly the kind of bats that have hurt him most. Flip it around and Arizona's young lefty Mitch Bratt is trending the opposite way — last time out he threw seven scoreless innings and struck out nine, and the Rockies lineup is full of right-handed hitters who have barely been able to hit him at all. His control wanders sometimes, sure, but almost everywhere you look, the matchup leans his way. And once the starters leave, this gets lopsided. Arizona's bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball despite carrying a heavy load, while Colorado's relievers have been giving up runs in bunches with runners on base constantly. Add in that the Rockies have made way more errors in the field than Arizona, and every late-inning path favors the home team. Perdomo sitting out to rest his knee costs the D-backs a little, but Vargas has been swinging a good bat, and it's nowhere near enough to save a team that couldn't score a single run in this building just twenty-four hours ago. Give me the Diamondbacks, even at a price where you have to lay a bit more to win, and let the roof stay closed on Colorado's night.

Diamondbacks ML-165

CONF

68%

MLB9:40 PM

Brewers @ Padres

Tuesday night in San Diego, and the hottest team in baseball is hosting the team with the best record in the game. The Padres have been on a tear, Jackson Merrill is crushing everything he sees, and with playoff spots on the line this whole series has real juice. But when you cut through all that hype and just look at who's pitching tonight, this game swings back to Milwaukee. Kyle Harrison is clearly the better pitcher in this matchup, and it's not close. He's been shutting teams down all year, his stuff is legit — hitters keep swinging and missing at both his fastball and his breaking ball — and his last time out he threw five scoreless innings and struck out ten guys. The heavy night air in San Diego's ballpark makes his stuff even tougher to hit. Walker Buehler is the opposite story. He's been getting knocked around all season, his fastball keeps getting hammered, and left-handed hitters in particular have feasted on him. That's a big problem tonight, because Milwaukee's lineup is stacked with lefties, plus a guy who hits from both sides — and Jackson Chourio and Jake Bauers are both swinging red-hot bats. On top of that, Buehler hasn't been able to pitch deep into games lately, so San Diego's bullpen will have to carry a heavy load — and that only matters if he can hand them a lead in the first place. The Padres still have weapons. Mason Miller and that late-inning relief crew are as good as it gets, and Merrill can flip a game with one swing, so don't expect a blowout — these two just played a one-run game and this one looks just as tight. But in a game this close, I want the team with the clearly better starting pitcher, a lineup built to punish the other guy's weakness, and a fresh bullpen of its own — their closer barely had to work all weekend. Milwaukee has the best record in baseball for a reason. Give me the Brewers tonight — a fair price for the better team with the better arm on the mound.

Brewers ML-126

CONF

64%

MLB9:40 PM

Rays @ Athletics

Tuesday night in West Sacramento, and the best team in the American League walks back into the same ballpark where they buried the home team with a monster inning late in the game just last night. Tampa Bay has won seven in a row, every one of them away from home, and tonight the matchup lines up almost exactly like it did yesterday — except this time I don't need a comeback. I just need them to win by a couple of runs. Here's why I'm asking for the bigger win instead of just the win: the Athletics' starter couldn't even make it through five innings his last time out, and the relievers behind him have been giving up runs all week — this is the same group that took a close game last night and let it turn into a blowout loss. That's exactly how this bet pays off. When the Athletics lose lately, they don't lose close; the late innings are where tight games fall apart on them, and Tampa Bay just showed everyone how it happens. The matchups on the mound point the same way too — the Rays fill their lineup with left-handed hitters, and the Athletics' starter has been getting crushed by lefties all year, while the Athletics send their own lefty-heavy lineup against a Rays pitcher who has shut left-handed hitters down. On top of that, Tampa Bay's bats are hot right now: their first baseman is on fire, their young slugger has been launching home runs for two straight weeks, and their speedy outfielder has been getting hits at an incredible clip. This offense doesn't need much of a crack in the door. The honest risk: the Rays' pitcher gives up his share of balls in the air, and this ballpark in the August heat turns those into home runs — that's how the home team could keep it close. It's real, and it's why I'm confident here but not going all-in. But a first-place team riding a seven-game winning streak against a last-place club that's lost eight of its last ten, can't protect a lead late, and is missing its best hitter tonight — that's the kind of spot where asking for the extra run is worth it. Give me the Rays to win by more than one, and let the late innings do what they've been doing all week.

Rays -1.5-123

CONF

61%

MLB9:45 PM

Astros @ Giants

Tuesday night by the Bay, and the Giants are trying to stop the bleeding against a Houston club that just ripped their hearts out in extra innings. The problem is the man they're handing the ball to. Carson Whisenhunt is a young lefty who hasn't even made it through four innings in either of his last two starts, and right-handed hitters have been absolutely feasting on him — hitting well over three hundred and doing serious damage when they connect. Houston looked at that and stacked their lineup with seven righties, including Cam Smith, who's been red hot all week, launching homers and squaring up everything he touches. This isn't a matchup, it's an ambush. And when Whisenhunt exits early — which is his pattern lately, not a guess — the game falls into the lap of a San Francisco bullpen running on fumes. That group has been bleeding runs all week, and three of their most-used arms pitched both of the last two nights. Houston's relievers, by contrast, have been nearly untouchable lately and come in rested. So the Astros don't just have the edge early in the game; they have it late too. On the other side, Houston's Hunter Brown has been dealing — piling up strikeouts while barely walking anybody — and he's especially tough on left-handed hitters, which is exactly what this Giants lineup is built around. San Francisco has barely been scoring lately, managing under three runs a game and even less than that over the past few days. Somebody has to drive in runs to keep this thing close, and I'm not sure who that is. The honest case for the Giants is the ballpark and the flukiness of tight baseball games — their home park swallows fly balls, and these two teams just played nine innings of deadlock before Houston pulled away late. But look closer at how the Giants have stayed close lately: their starting pitchers have carried them, and tonight's starter is the one guy in the rotation who can't. When Whisenhunt has taken the ball recently, games haven't stayed tight — they've gotten away, fast. A hot lineup against a struggling arm, a rested bullpen against a gassed one, and a home offense that can't score: that's how a comfortable win gets built. Give me Houston to win it by a couple, even though it means they have to win by more than one run for the bet to cash.

Astros -1.5-119

CONF

63%

MLB10:10 PM

Royals @ Dodgers

Tuesday night in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are handing the ball to Blake Snell for the first time in three months — a feel-good comeback night for a team that's been losing way more than it's been winning lately. The catch with feel-good nights is somebody has to pay for them, and the books want you to believe the Dodgers don't just win this one, they win it comfortably. Here's what I see. Snell isn't going deep into this game — he's on a strict limit, and his last warm-up outing was short and shaky. That means the Dodgers will be leaning hard on their relievers, the same relievers who've been worked two nights in a row, with a closer who makes every save an adventure. On the other side, Michael Wacha is quietly pitching the best baseball of his season, barely giving up anything and working deep into games. That's a recipe for a close game late — and close games are exactly what the Dodgers have been playing. They're barely scoring during this slump, and both of their recent wins, including last night against this same Kansas City team, came down to a single run. The Royals aren't just here to play the punching bag in someone else's comeback story. Jac Caglianone is swinging the hottest bat on either team, Bobby Witt Jr. is hitting the ball hard, and their bullpen just got fresh arms plus a rare night of rest. I don't need Kansas City to win this game — I just need them to do what they did Monday and keep it close to the end. When the sportsbook is paying me extra to bet a team that only has to stay within striking distance, against a favorite counting on a rusty ace and a tired bullpen? That's my side. I'm taking the Royals to keep it close.

Royals +1.5+104

CONF

63%

Player props

MLB · Guardians @ Tigers

Spencer Torkelson

I'm getting plus money on one single from a hitter batting .380 over the last 15 days and cashing this exact prop in 11 of those 15 games. Torkelson has produced ten hard-hit balls on his last 21 balls in play, so the results are supported by the quality of contact.

OVER 0.5 Singles+160

MLB · Guardians @ Tigers

Drew Anderson

This is a workload bet as much as a contact bet. Anderson returned from a 51-day gap and recorded only 11 outs in his latest start, while Detroit enters with a rested bullpen after Monday's day off. He shouldn't need to face Cleveland's lineup three times.

UNDER 3.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed-148

MLB · Pirates @ Marlins

Paul Skenes

This asks Skenes to finish six innings, something he hasn't done in any of his last three starts. Those outings totaled only 14.1 innings, and the ten walks are the real warning sign: even when he misses bats, the command problems keep driving up his pitch count.

UNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs+108

MLB · Pirates @ Marlins

Eury Perez

Pittsburgh strikes out 9.46 times per game, and this particular lineup gives Pérez several paths to seven. Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds have both been swinging through more than 40 percent of their recent pitches, while Esmerlyn Valdez just struck out four times Sunday.

OVER 6.5 Strikeouts+100

MLB HR · Pirates @ Marlins

Griffin Conine

Conine is running the hottest power stretch on either roster right now — five home runs and a .968 OPS over his last fifteen games, capped by a two-homer night his last time out. He's not just hot in a part-time role, either. With Stowers now on the injured list, Conine is locked into the middle of Miami's order tonight, batting third, so the at-bats are guaranteed.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+630

MLB HR · Guardians @ Tigers

Angel Martinez

Martinez is swinging the best bat on this entire board right now. A grand slam and a six-RBI night against the White Sox less than a week ago, a 1.032 OPS over his last seven games, and the best barrel rate of anyone on this prop sheet — he's squaring up close to a third of the balls he's put in play recently. That's a real hot stretch, not a one-swing fluke.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+700

MLB HR · Guardians @ Tigers

Dillon Dingler

Dingler's the one Tiger on this board actually squaring the ball up right now — four barrels in his last 24 batted balls, three homers in his last week alone, and he's hitting third in a Detroit lineup that's scored 7.5 runs a game over its last ten. That's contact quality showing up in the exit-velocity readings before it ever shows up in the box score, not a guy running hot on bloopers.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+435

MLB HR · Pirates @ Marlins

Brandon Lowe

Lowe's power is real right now — four home runs in his last fifteen games, an average exit velocity over 94 miles an hour on his recent contact, and a couple of genuine barrels mixed into a small sample. That's loud contact, not just a hot stretch of bloops falling in. The swing-and-miss has crept up alongside it, and the matchup itself isn't clean: Eury Perez has actually been tougher on left-handed hitters than right-handed ones this season, holding lefties under .200.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Guardians @ Tigers

Kevin McGonigle

McGonigle bats left, and that's exactly the side that's given Bibee trouble all year — lefties are slugging well beyond what righties have managed against him, and the bulk of the home runs he's allowed this season have come from that side of the plate. McGonigle's own numbers back up taking a shot here too: three homers and a near-.900 OPS over his last two weeks, part of a Tigers offense that's been putting up crooked numbers all through this road trip.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB · Cubs @ Nationals

Jake Irvin

Irvin's 5.40 xERA backs up the damage in his actual results, and his 43.7% hard-hit rate and 13.2% barrel rate leave almost no margin against this Cubs order. Chicago has seven hitters who own a combined .296 career average against him, while Irvin has a 7.04 ERA at Nationals Park. With the Cubs producing five runs per game over their last ten, I like them to get three charged to Irvin before Washington can hide him in the bullpen.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-120

MLB · Cubs @ Nationals

Shota Imanaga

Imanaga has allowed only three earned runs over his last 17.2 innings, striking out 16 while walking one. His splitter is generating a 39% whiff rate and nearly a 45% chase rate, a difficult combination for a Washington lineup featuring several hitters with elevated chase or swing-and-miss numbers. James Wood remains absent, and Imanaga has gone over this number only once in his last eight starts. I'll lay the price on two earned runs or fewer.

UNDER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-140

MLB · Mariners @ Yankees

Ryan Weathers

This is a bet on the number, not against Weathers. He has reached seven strikeouts once in his last eight starts, and Seattle has enough contact spread through Taylor Ward, Randy Arozarena, Cole Young and Brendan Donovan to extend at-bats without giving him seven punchouts. His changeup can miss bats, but the Yankees also have a rested bullpen and no reason to force extra innings from him in his first start for the club. Six strikeouts can still be an excellent night and cash this under.

UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts-152

MLB · Mariners @ Yankees

Cole Young

Young is the Seattle bat I trust most to simplify this matchup. He has singled in ten of his last fifteen games, is hitting .340 over that stretch and has been missing just 14 percent of the pitches he swings at recently. Weathers has allowed left-handed hitters a .279 average, so I am not treating the same-side matchup as an automatic disadvantage. Batting fifth should give Young multiple chances to shoot one through the infield, and even money is fair enough for that profile.

OVER 0.5 Singles-110

MLB · Mets @ Braves

Martin Perez

The Mets have already gotten to Pérez twice this season, scoring four earned runs in 4.1 innings in July and three more on eight hits later that month. Now he faces a New York lineup loaded with right-handed and switch hitters, several of whom are swinging it well.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+125

MLB · Mets @ Braves

Nolan McLean

McLean has cleared this number in seven of his last eight starts and owns 156 strikeouts in 130.2 innings. The velocity gets him into favorable counts, then the curveball gives him a legitimate finishing pitch with a whiff rate pushing 40 percent.

OVER 5.5 Strikeouts-150

MLB · Orioles @ Twins

Bailey Ober

Five strikeouts requires a version of Ober that has not shown up lately. He has only five total across his last three starts, including zero through six innings last time, and has cleared this line in just two of his last eight.

UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts-145

MLB · Orioles @ Twins

Royce Lewis

Lewis has a hit in 14 of his last 15 games and has cleared 1.5 total bases in 10 of them. He is batting .380 with three homers during that stretch, and Brandon Young has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .280 while surrendering a 40.9% hard-hit rate overall. Young's slider is a legitimate weapon, but Lewis is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on plus money in a matchup that gives him paths through both multiple hits and extra-base damage. Give me more than one base.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+135

MLB · Reds @ White Sox

Sean Burke

This asks Burke to complete six innings, something he's done in five of his last six starts and six of his last eight. His fastball and curveball have both produced excellent contact results, and Cincinnati brings a strikeout-heavy lineup into Chicago after scoring six total runs during its three-game skid.

OVER 17.5 Pitcher Outs-113

MLB · Reds @ White Sox

Nick Lodolo

Lodolo issued nine walks over his final three starts before the injured-list stint, including at least two in each outing. Now he's returning after a month away, and two walks is a low bar for a pitcher carrying a 1.47 WHIP and 27 walks in 62.2 innings. Chicago averages 3.43 walks per game and has enough patience throughout the lineup to make him work, particularly if his command is still settling in after the blister and layoff. I don't need Lodolo to unravel; I only need two free passes, and the plus price is worth taking.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks+109

MLB · Phillies @ Cardinals

Ivan Herrera

I don't need Herrera to dominate Sánchez; I need him to find two bases. Right-handed hitters have batted .292 with a .774 OPS against Sánchez, and Herrera is the hottest, hardest-contact bat in this lineup: 12-for-28 over his last seven with a 95.6 mph average exit velocity.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+160

MLB · Phillies @ Cardinals

JJ Wetherholt

Wetherholt's leadoff spot guarantees opportunity, but the matchup is severe enough to take the plus price. Left-handed hitters are batting .131 with a .315 OPS against Sánchez across 145 at-bats, and Wetherholt enters tonight just 9-for-46 over his last 15 days. Sánchez's changeup and slider give him two legitimate put-away pitches against lefties, so Wetherholt may spend his first three trips trying to solve the strongest part of this pitcher's profile. At +160, I'm betting he finishes without a hit.

UNDER 0.5 Hits+160

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Patrick Sandoval

Sandoval has not recorded a 16th out in any of his five starts this season. That workload pattern matters in his first start for Boston, especially with a 1.67 WHIP and eight walks across his last three outings. Toronto does not need to chase him early; enough traffic and extended counts should get the bullpen door open by the end of the fifth. At -127, I'm betting that Boston maintains the leash he has carried throughout his return.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-127

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Dylan Cease

Cease has completed at least seven innings in four of his last six starts, including a nine-inning, one-hit shutout of Boston on July 25. His fastball, slider and changeup all miss bats, giving him several ways to escape trouble without long innings. Toronto also has reason to seek length after Tyler Rogers worked on consecutive days and Louis Varland threw 47 pitches across two recent appearances. The 19th out is never automatic against this Boston lineup, but +140 pays generously for a threshold Cease keeps reaching.

OVER 18.5 Pitcher Outs+140

MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Cody Bradford

Bradford is making only his second major-league start since elbow surgery. His rehab work reached roughly four innings and 56 pitches, then Texas pulled him after 4.1 innings in his return despite a scoreless line. This number requires him to record an out in the sixth. The under still cashes if he completes five, giving me room for another modest workload increase without asking the Angels to hit him hard.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-125

MLB · Rangers @ Angels

Ryan Johnson

Johnson has failed to finish five innings in four of his past six starts, including three straight. He has walked nine batters over his last 12.1 innings, and Texas can send five left-handed bats at a pitcher allowing an .851 OPS to lefties. The Rangers do not have to chase him from the game with one big inning; extended counts and traffic can get him removed before the end of the fifth. At plus money, the price is the attraction.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+140

MLB · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Mitch Bratt

The seven-inning gem last time out was impressive, but it also came with three walks. Bratt has issued 18 free passes in 27.2 innings, including 12 across his last three starts, and he has cleared this number in five of six outings.

OVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks-105

MLB · Brewers @ Padres

Jake Bauers

Bauers has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games and is batting .343 with three homers over that stretch. The contact has substance behind it, too: he's averaging 97.1 mph off the bat recently. Now he gets Buehler, who has allowed left-handed hitters to bat .291 and has been particularly vulnerable with his four-seamer and changeup. Bauers is hitting cleanup with several chances to collect one hit, and that is enough for me even at the heavier price.

OVER 0.5 Hits-150

MLB · Brewers @ Padres

Garrett Mitchell

Mitchell has drawn a walk in eight of his last 15 games, and his recent 23 percent chase rate matters against a pitcher whose command has been unreliable. Buehler has issued 45 walks in 108 1/3 innings, and Milwaukee's left-handed-heavy lineup should force him into uncomfortable counts all night. Batting third gives Mitchell strong plate-appearance volume, and the plus price only asks this matchup to produce one free pass.

OVER 0.5 Walks+131

MLB · Rays @ Athletics

Mason Barnett

Fifteen outs asks Barnett to finish five innings, and this matchup is built to push him out sooner. His last two starts ended at five and 4 1/3, he has issued 17 walks in 34 innings, and Tampa Bay can send seven hitters to the plate from the left side. Lefties have posted a .905 OPS against him, so the Rays can pressure both his pitch count and the scoreboard before the lineup turns over a third time.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs-118

MLB · Rays @ Athletics

Chandler Simpson

I'm taking the plus money on Simpson to collect at least two hits. He has done it in nine of his last fifteen games, is 18-for-48 over that stretch and owns an 11-for-27 mark over the past week. The important part is how repeatable the approach looks: his recent whiff rate is only 10%, so he keeps putting balls in play instead of giving away plate appearances.

OVER 1.5 Hits+160

MLB · Astros @ Giants

Carson Whisenhunt

Houston needs to score three runs against Whisenhunt before the Giants pull him, and that is a bet I want at plus money. He has allowed at least four earned runs in three straight starts, totaling 14 across just 11.2 innings, while his 6.72 xERA confirms this has been bad pitching rather than a run of unfortunate results.

OVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs+103

MLB · Astros @ Giants

Cam Smith

Smith is seeing the ball too well for me to pass on essentially even money in this matchup. He is 7-for-14 with three homers over the past week, has produced a 96 mph average exit velocity recently and collected three hits, a homer and two RBIs in Monday's opener.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-101

MLB HR · Mets @ Braves

Matt Olson

Matt Olson is doing something absurd right now — seven home runs in his last fifteen games with an OPS over 1.000 in that stretch, and the contact data backs it up: 94.9 mph average exit velocity and 5 barrels on just 16 balls in play over that span. That's about as hot as a hitter gets.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+430

MLB HR · Orioles @ Twins

Pete Alonso

Two nights ago in Texas, Alonso had his first multi-homer game since he put on an Orioles uniform, and that swing hasn't cooled off. Look past the box score and the contact quality backs it up — he's barreling balls at a rate few hitters in this lineup can match right now, which tells me the recent power isn't a hot-hand mirage, it's just good hitting.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+320

MLB HR · Astros @ Giants

Cam Smith

Nobody in this ballpark is hitting the ball harder right now than Cam Smith. He's three home runs and a .500 average over his last week, and he was right in the middle of Monday's extra-innings win with three hits including a homer off this same Giants pitching staff.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

MLB HR · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll

The number that jumps out here is Sugano against left-handed hitters: .891 OPS, fifteen home runs in 227 at-bats, essentially a homer every time he turns the lineup over against a lefty bat. Carroll sits at the top of an order that's going to see a lot of him tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+369

MLB HR · Cubs @ Nationals

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the hottest bat in this lineup, and it isn't close. He's hitting .360 with two home runs over his last week and three over his last fifteen days, and the contact backs up the results — a 93 mile-an-hour average exit velocity and four barreled balls in his last eighteen in play, the best barrel rate of anyone on this board tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

MLB HR · Orioles @ Twins

Josh Bell

Bell is a switch-hitter riding the best stretch of his season — three homers over his last fifteen games, with one coming just last night, and the underlying contact says this keeps going. He's barreling the ball at a rate that stands out even in a red-hot Twins lineup, and his whiff rate right now is about as low as it gets. Brandon Young, meanwhile, is trending the wrong direction — his outings have gotten shorter start after start, capped by a four-and-a-third-inning showing last time out, and the quality of contact he's allowing has gotten louder as the calendar turned to August. A hitter locked in like this against a starter losing his grip on games is worth a shot at plus-money.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+525

MLB HR · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Wilyer Abreu

Wilyer Abreu is doing more right now than anyone in either lineup. Three home runs in his last seven games, five in his last fifteen, and it's not just puffed-up counting stats — his average exit velocity over that stretch is 93.3 mph with four barrels on nineteen balls in play. That's a bat currently squaring up everything it sees.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+650

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Bryce Harper

Harper's carrying a 1.057 OPS into tonight with four home runs in his last fifteen games, and he draws a right-hander who's had real trouble with left-handed power all year. Andre Pallante has allowed six home runs to left-handed hitters in just 255 at-bats this season against four in 218 to right-handers — that gap is wide enough to matter, not a small-sample fluke.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Nolan Arenado

Arenado went deep off this same bullpen in this same building less than twenty-four hours ago, and that's not an isolated swing — he's got four home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week. Now he gets a pitcher leaning on exactly the pitches that have been getting hit hardest. Sugano throws his four-seamer and sinker a combined forty percent of the time, and hitters are batting .308 and .353 against them, with almost no swing-and-miss on that sinker at all — teams are just squaring it up. Add a hitter-friendly building with the roof shut and a bat that's this hot right now, and I want a piece of it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Brewers @ Padres

Jackson Chourio

Walker Buehler hasn't finished six innings in any of his last six starts, and his season splits explain part of why: right-handed hitters are turning him into home runs at more than double the rate lefties are, even though the lefty numbers look uglier on the surface. Jackson Chourio hits right-handed and is doing exactly the kind of damage that split predicts — four home runs in his last seven games, and he has barreled nearly a third of the balls he's put in play over that stretch. That is not empty contact or a hot streak riding bloop hits, that's a hitter hitting the ball as hard as anyone in this lineup right now, against the one starter on the mound tonight who has been getting hit hard by everybody.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+440

MLB HR · Rays @ Athletics

Junior Caminero

Caminero has gone deep five times in his last fifteen games and two of those came in the last week, including a three-run shot last night in this same ballpark against this same opponent. What sells me on it continuing is the contact underneath the numbers — four barreled balls in his last twenty-two batted balls, exit velocity that says this is legitimate thump and not a hot bounce or two.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+235

MLB HR · Astros @ Giants

Rafael Devers

Devers has been squaring the ball up all month whether the batting average shows it or not — 95.7 miles an hour average exit velocity over his last two weeks, second only to Cam Smith in this whole matchup, with a pair of barrels among his last 18 balls in play. Hunter Brown is the pitcher tonight, and left-handed hitters have already taken him deep five times in 116 at-bats this season, roughly twice the rate right-handers have managed against him.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+540

MLB HR · Mariners @ Yankees

Julio Rodriguez

Julio Rodriguez is the one Mariner swinging a hot bat right now, and it isn't subtle — two home runs and four RBI in his last week, three deep over his last fifteen games, a 1.036 OPS in that stretch, and he took one out to left just four days ago. Everything else about this Seattle team has gone cold and quiet, but Rodriguez has kept producing through it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Mariners @ Yankees

Luis Garcia Jr.

No one in this lineup has been hotter than Luis Garcia Jr. Three home runs and eight RBI over his last fifteen games, a .919 OPS in that stretch, and he's gone deep in four of his last fifteen outings — the best recent home run rate of anyone on tonight's board.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+475

MLB HR · Reds @ White Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is the hottest power bat on either roster right now — four home runs in his last fifteen days, and it's backed by real contact quality, not just a couple of lucky yanks: he's barreling the ball at a 20 percent clip over that stretch. He steps in tonight against Nick Lodolo, who's making his first start in a month after a blister sent him to the injured list, and Lodolo wasn't exactly cruising before he left — a 4.60 ERA that flatters him next to a 6.15 expected mark and a 38 percent hard-hit rate allowed. First outing back off a layoff is rarely a pitcher's sharpest, and Murakami is squaring up the ball as well as anybody in this park. I'll take the swing that's already finding barrels against the arm that's finding trouble.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo is the hottest bat on this field tonight — ten hits in his last twenty-three at-bats with two homers and seven RBI, and it's not empty contact. He's averaging 91 miles an hour off the bat over his last fifteen games with eleven hard-hit balls in twenty-one tries, and his expected slugging is sitting fifty-six points above his actual slugging, which means the underlying data likes this swing even more than the box score does. He's a lefty stepping into a matchup where left-handed hitters have taken Ryan Johnson deep seven times in 116 at-bats this year, and Johnson has walked nine hitters in his last three starts alone. This is the clearest combination of form and matchup on the board.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+365

MLB HR · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Mickey Moniak

Bratt has been nearly unhittable against right-handed bats this year, but left-handed hitters have given him trouble even in his short track record — a .979 OPS against, small sample or not. Moniak is the one left-handed bat on this board getting to see him tonight, and he's been quietly the best contact hitter in this Rockies lineup by quality — three barreled balls in his last fifteen in play, the best rate of anyone on this slate, with three home runs over that same stretch. Everything else about tonight points at Arizona, but this is the one matchup on Colorado's side of the field that actually lines up in the hitter's favor.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+680

MLB HR · Cubs @ Nationals

Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile is hitting the ball as hard as anyone on this field right now. Over his last fifteen days he's carrying a 96.6 mile-an-hour average exit velocity with thirteen hard-hit balls and two barrels — both the top marks on this entire board — to go with four home runs in that stretch.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+750

MLB HR · Mets @ Braves

Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor is in the middle of his best two-week stretch of the year — five home runs and thirteen RBI over his last fifteen games, an OPS north of 1.000, and he already went deep in the opener of this series last night. This bat has not cooled off, and it's swinging right into a pitcher this Mets lineup has already solved twice.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+600

MLB HR · Orioles @ Twins

Tyler O'Neill

O'Neill has gone deep four times over his last fifteen games, three of those in just the last week, and that's precisely the kind of run his game is built for — he's going to strike out his share, but when he connects, the ball doesn't stay in the park. He's carrying real thunder into Minnesota after this offense went quiet for stretches against the Rangers. Bailey Ober is walking a tightrope of his own right now, with a 5-plus ERA over his last three turns and a whiff rate that fell off sharply in his most recent outing. O'Neill doesn't need a long at-bat to do damage, and I like him to run into a mistake tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Joc Pederson

Pederson has four home runs in his last fifteen days, and the exit velocity behind that stretch is averaging 96 miles an hour — that's not a lucky bounce, that's squared-up contact. He's a left-handed masher walking into a pitcher that lefties are hitting .276 with an .851 OPS and seven homers against this season, and Ryan Johnson's sinker in particular — his most-used pitch — is getting hit at a .383 average and a .507 expected weighted on-base. That's a fastball sitting in the zone waiting to get turned around, and Pederson has the swing to do it.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+282

MLB HR · Brewers @ Padres

Fernando Tatis Jr.

I already made the case that Kyle Harrison is the best pitcher on this field tonight, and I still believe it — but even his ledger has one crack, and it runs directly at this pick. Nine of the ten home runs Harrison has allowed all year have come against right-handed hitters; against lefties he's been almost untouchable. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits right-handed, and he is walking into Petco as hot as anyone in the sport with a bat in his hands — three home runs in his last seven games, five barreled balls in his last 26 in play. That's not a lucky week, that's a hitter squaring up mistakes at a rate that forces pitchers to be perfect, and Harrison's one real soft spot happens to be exactly the side of the plate Tatis swings from.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Reds @ White Sox

Eugenio Suarez

Suarez has been putting on a show for a week — two homers in his last seven games, and thirty percent of his balls in play over that stretch have gone for barrels, which is as clean as contact gets. Sean Burke is the best arm in this series and I'm not going to pretend he isn't; he's been dealing all July. But even Burke has allowed a home run in three of his last six starts, and Suarez right now is a hitter finding the sweet spot at an elite rate, established power bat or not. This is a price on a hot bat against a good pitcher, not a sure thing, but the recent contact quality is real.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+450

MLB HR · Mariners @ Yankees

Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham leads off for New York and he's putting together some of the cleanest at-bats in this lineup right now — two home runs over his last fifteen games, one of them two nights ago, with a nineteen percent whiff rate and a twenty-six percent chase rate that are both the best marks on the roster. That's a hitter seeing the ball well, not just running hot.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Jordan Walker

Walker already put one 432 feet against Colorado this week, and Marmol's still talking about it. Tonight he draws Cristopher Sánchez, and the platoon split there is about as lopsided as it gets — Sánchez has allowed twelve home runs to right-handed hitters in 439 at-bats this season and just one to lefties in 145. Walker's average exit velocity hasn't popped this month, but three of his last seventeen balls in play have gone for barrels, and that barrel rate says the contact quality is ahead of the batting average. He'll swing and miss his share against a pitcher who's been missing plenty of bats his last few times out, but this prop only needs one good swing to land, and the wind blowing out to left field at Busch tonight sets up well for a right-handed hitter working the pull side.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Mike Trout

Trout went deep last night, a 418-foot blast off Gore to lead off the game, and even in a rough week at the plate the power hasn't gone anywhere — two homers in his last seven games with two barrels off just twelve balls in play. That's superstar underlying data even when the average says otherwise. Cody Bradford is making just his second start back from elbow surgery, and what little we've seen is a pitcher who lives in the air — a 0.14 groundout-to-flyout ratio is about as extreme a fly-ball tilt as you'll find, and hitters already put a hard-hit rate of 46 percent on him in his return outing. Trout doesn't need much of an opening against a pitcher this determined to keep the ball off the ground.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+350

MLB HR · Rays @ Athletics

Yandy Diaz

Diaz is squaring the ball up as hard as anyone in this lineup right now, and he's doing it without the swing-and-miss that usually comes with that kind of exit velocity — that combination is what makes this price worth taking. He's hitting the ball hard on more than half his balls in play over his recent stretch, averaging better than 94 miles an hour off the bat, and he opened last night's game with a leadoff homer that carried 439 feet in this same yard.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+460

MLB HR · Astros @ Giants

Christian Walker

Walker's been productive all week — five hits and three RBI in his last nineteen at-bats, and before that a stretch of fourteen hits in 48 with a pair of homers — and the exit velocity backs it up at better than 91 miles an hour lately. He's a right-handed bat catching a left-hander tonight in Whisenhunt, who's been hit hard on nearly half the balls in play against him and has struggled to get through a lineup full of right-handed power. Walker's barrel rate isn't at the level of the other bats I like tonight, but he's hitting the ball hard consistently in a matchup built for him to do damage. I'll take a shot on the barrel finding a fence with the wind blowing out.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+569

MLB HR · Cubs @ Nationals

Ian Happ

Ian Happ is a week removed from an 0-for-22 slump, and he broke out of it the way switch-hitters with real power usually do — a home run Saturday, another two-run shot Sunday, five hits in his last seven at-bats to close out the Royals series. That shows up in the contact quality too, an 89.4 mile-an-hour average exit velocity with six hard-hit balls in his last twelve in play. He steps in tonight against Jake Irvin, a pitcher who has let hard contact leave the ballpark all season and is worse than that at Nationals Park specifically. Happ has swing-and-miss in his game and always will, but he is seeing the ball well right now, and when he connects it travels.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500

MLB HR · Orioles @ Twins

Royce Lewis

Lewis is doing everything right at the plate right now — a .380 average with three homers and eleven RBI over his last fifteen games, and he carried that form straight into this series with a two-hit night in the opener. Brandon Young hasn't worked into the seventh inning in three straight starts, and this same Twins lineup already lit up Baltimore's pitching for nine runs one night ago. Lewis is swinging a hot bat against a staff that just gave this lineup a runway, and I'll ride him to add another souvenir tonight.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber already put one Toronto reliever in the second deck twice in the same game this past week after working through a brief power drought, and tonight's matchup plays right to his swing. Pallante has allowed six homers to left-handed hitters in just 255 at-bats this season, well above his rate against right-handers, and Schwarber's barrel rate over his recent stretch is pushing eighteen percent — he's squaring the ball up more than he's missing it right now. It's a scorching night at Busch Stadium, and hot air carries a fly ball further than a cool one. The price is short because everyone in the building knows what Schwarber can do to a baseball, but a soft-platoon right-hander on a hot night is exactly the spot he does it in.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+390

MLB HR · Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Ketel Marte

Marte's a switch-hitter, so he's in the box left-handed against Sugano tonight, and that's the side Sugano has struggled with all year — an .891 OPS and a home run every fifteen at-bats or so against left-handed bats. Marte's overall numbers have cooled the last two weeks, but he's still barreling the ball at a healthy clip recently and he went deep the last time he got a good pitch to hit. Hitting in the middle of an Arizona lineup that just hung nine runs on this pitching staff last night, against a starter making his first start for this club and leaking hard contact on his top two pitches, this is a reasonable price to take a swing on him going deep again.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+400

MLB HR · Reds @ White Sox

Tyler Stephenson

Stephenson doesn't jump off the page the way some of the bigger names on this board do, but the last two weeks tell a different story — a .973 OPS, and four barrels out of his last fourteen balls in play, the best recent contact-quality read on either roster. That's a hitter whose swing is clicking right now. Burke makes this a tough ask, and the price reflects it, but Stephenson is seeing the ball as well as he has all season, and that kind of form tends to produce a mistake-pitch payoff sooner rather than later.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+575

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Jose Siri

Siri has gone deep twice in his last seven games, and the Statcast read on that stretch is loud — 100.9 miles an hour average exit velocity with two barrels on just eight balls in play. He's going to swing and miss, the whiff and chase rates are both high right now, but at this price I don't need him to hit for average, I need one mistake left over the plate, and right now every time he connects the ball is carrying. A fly-ball-prone left-hander still finding his rhythm off an injury is exactly the kind of arm that gives up that mistake.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+480

MLB HR · Phillies @ Cardinals

Ivan Herrera

Herrera's got the best contact number on this whole board — his average exit velocity over his last stretch sits at 95.6 miles an hour, which is elite no matter what the box score says. Right now the box score says .429 for the week, so he's finding the barrel even though the power total hasn't fully caught up yet.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+900

MLB HR · Rays @ Athletics

Victor Mesa Jr.

Mesa's at-bats have been inconsistent this season, but when he squares a ball up lately it's been legitimately crushed — five barreled balls out of his last twenty in play, the best contact-quality read on this whole board, and a home run three days ago that cleared the fence by better than four hundred feet. He's in the lineup tonight batting sixth, and he gets the version of Barnett that's given up significantly more production to left-handed hitters than right-handed ones this season. That platoon gap layered on top of a barrel rate running this hot is enough for me to take a swing here, even with the caveat that his sample size is thinner than the other names on this board and his playing time hasn't been fully steady. This is the one prop tonight where I'm betting what the contact quality is telling me over what the box score shows, and at plus-410 that's a price worth taking that swing at.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410

MLB HR · Rangers @ Angels

Corey Seager

Seager's actual numbers understate how well he's hitting the ball — ten hard-hit balls in his last twenty-one in play, and his expected slugging is seventy points above his actual slugging on the season, which tells me the results are due to catch up to the contact quality. He's a lefty with real pop stepping into a Ryan Johnson start that left-handed hitters have already hit for an .851 OPS this year. I want a piece of the gap between what Seager's been hitting and what the scoreboard shows.

OVER 0.5 Home Runs+300

MLB · Royals @ Dodgers

Blake Snell

This is a workload bet, not a verdict on Blake Snell. He is making his first big-league start in three months, with roughly 75-80 pitches to work with, and his final rehab appearance required 73 pitches to record just 11 outs. To beat this number, he must complete the fifth inning. At plus money, I'm betting Dave Roberts protects the returning arm and goes to the bullpen after four-plus.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+138

MLB · Royals @ Dodgers

Michael Wacha

Wacha has allowed four earned runs across his last three starts, covering 18⅔ innings, and he has completed at least six innings in four of his last five. The Dodgers remain dangerous at the top, but they have averaged only 3.5 runs over their last ten games and several hitters in the lower half are scuffling. Wacha can give up some traffic without surrendering four earned runs, and that is the distinction I'm buying.

UNDER 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs-142

Hub research

159

bullpen_fatigueCIN @ CHW
Chicago White Sox pen: 19.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Chicago's already run nine different arms out there across three games, and that's before you get to Sandlin's 96-pitch outing — that's basically a spot start out of the pen, he's not part of tonight. Newcomb and Hudson have both worked the last two days too, so if either shows up tonight it's an out or two, not an inning. Whoever starts for the White Sox needs to give some length, because this pen's already been leaned on hard before the Reds even show up.
starter_team_recordTB @ OAK
Athletics 0-8 in Mason Barnett's last 8 starts
Oakland's lost all eight of Mason Barnett's starts this season, and that's not really on him — it's the pen turning close games into losses and the lineup going cold right when he needs a run. That pattern doesn't just reset because Tampa's in town, especially with Nick Martinez on the mound for a Rays team that's been cashing behind him all year.
bullpen_fatigueBOS @ TOR
Toronto Blue Jays pen: 16.3 relief IP over their last 3 games
Toronto's pen has already gone nine deep across three games, five of those arms touched more than once, and Rogers working both of the last two days makes him the one least likely to go a third straight look tonight. Woods Richardson's the outlier — three innings on 45 pitches in one outing — so if the Jays need length against Boston instead of a matchup arm, that's the profile they lean on.
starter_team_recordBOS @ TOR
Red Sox 5-0 in Patrick Sandoval's last 5 starts
Boston's 5-0 as a team every time Patrick Sandoval takes the ball, and that's not one bat carrying it — it's the lineup and the bullpen both showing up together, start after start. Same group makes the trip to Toronto tonight, same rhythm, different mound to defend.
platoon_edgePIT @ MIA
Griffin Conine (bats L) hits 3rd against Paul Skenes (RHP)
Griffin Conine hitting third against a right-hander is the exact matchup that's given pitchers trouble all year, and Skenes is throwing from the side that plays right into it. That's a real advantage sitting in the middle of Miami's order tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCLE @ DET
Nathaniel Lowe (bats L) draws Drew Anderson (RHP), batting 4th
Nathaniel Lowe against a right-hander is simply the hitter he's been all season, and batting cleanup means Drew Anderson doesn't get to pitch around him — whatever gets on ahead of him is Lowe's to drive in. There's no lefty-shy version of Lowe here for Anderson to hope for.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
head_to_headCLE @ DET
Guardians are 6-0 vs Tigers this season
Cleveland's swept the season series from Detroit, 6-0, and took the last meeting 3-1. That's a full season of head-to-head results the Tigers have to answer for walking into tonight.
starter_team_recordTB @ OAK
Rays 6-1 in Nick Martinez's last 7 starts
Tampa Bay's 6-1 when Nick Martinez starts, and tonight they run into an Oakland team that hasn't won a single game its own starter has pitched all season. That's about as wide a gap as you'll find between two teams on their starter's night.
starter_team_recordPHI @ STL
Phillies 6-1 in Cristopher Sanchez's last 7 starts
Philadelphia's 6-1 with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, and the one loss in there is proof this isn't automatic — which makes the run mean more, not less. They carry that form on the road into St. Louis tonight, same lineup, same rhythm.
streakingTB @ OAK
TB have won 6 straight
6 wins in a row for TB, a +15 run margin across the streak — they come in 8-2 over their last 10.
P team won 12-4
cut_listCOL tonight
Tomoyuki Sugano
Sugano's showing a 4.51 ERA, but the xERA underneath it is 7.15 — a 2.64-run gap between what the process says and what the results say. That's the widest split of the three names here, and it's not close. A gap that size means the surface number has been propped up by something other than performance, and if you're holding him in a season-long format, you're betting that keeps happening every fifth day. He starts tonight, so tonight's line either starts closing that gap or stretches it further. Cut. A near-3-run gap between xERA and ERA is too big to hold through on hope.
bullpen_fatigueKC @ LAD
Los Angeles Dodgers pen: 13 relief IP over their last 3 games
Nobody in the Dodgers pen is walking in fully fresh, but nobody's walking in cooked either — six of eight arms have pitched twice this stretch without any single one getting overexposed. Hernández is the closest thing to a rested arm with just one outing, but really Los Angeles can go to almost anybody in that pen against Kansas City tonight.
platoon_edgeCHC @ WSH
Brady House (bats R) gets a LHP from the 3rd spot
Brady House against a lefty from the third spot is a completely different hitter than the one same-side pitching sees, and Imanaga is walking right into that gap tonight. With the top of the order often on ahead of him, House is exactly the bat that turns one mistake into multiple runs.
P 3-for-4, 3 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeHOU @ SF
Drew Gilbert (bats L) draws Hunter Brown (RHP), batting 6th
Gilbert's .773 against right-handers over 209 at-bats compared to barely a pulse against lefties — Brown throws right-handed, so Gilbert gets the only half of the platoon that's worked. Sixth in the order is still deep enough to cash in behind the top of the lineup.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeCHC @ WSH
Dylan Crews (bats R) gets a LHP from the 1st spot
Dylan Crews leading off against a left-hander is Imanaga running into trouble before the game even has a shape — no runners, no history built up, just a leadoff bat that's handled lefties well all year seeing that look first. He has to find his command immediately or this starts working against him from pitch one.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
cooling_offPIT @ MIA
Esmerlyn Valdez: .465 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Eury Perez
Esmerlyn Valdez's cold stretch is thin enough — under 40 plate appearances — that it could just as easily be bad luck as a broken swing, but tonight doesn't hand him an easy way out of it. Eury Perez was already a tough matchup for him before the slump started.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB
starter_team_recordBAL @ MIN
Twins 6-2 in Bailey Ober's last 8 starts
Minnesota's 6-2 on Bailey Ober's turns and riding its best stretch of the season doing it — the bats, the bullpen, all of it working together right now. Baltimore's got a similar level of support behind its own guy, so this is two teams playing well on their starter's night, but the Twins are the hotter club walking in.
platoon_edgePIT @ MIA
Brandon Lowe (bats L) draws Eury Perez (RHP), batting 2nd
Brandon Lowe hitting second against a right-hander is a full season of proof, not a hot week, and the two-hole means he's getting extra looks at Perez before the game settles into any kind of pattern. If Perez isn't sharp early, Lowe's the hitter built to make him pay for it more than once.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeMIL @ SD
Brice Turang (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Turang's .900 against right-handers comes from 321 at-bats, towering over his .588 against lefties. Buehler's a righty and Turang leads off, so the table-setter starts the night in his best matchup.
P 1-for-5, 2 TB
starter_team_recordCIN @ CHW
White Sox 6-2 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts
White Sox are 6-2 in Sean Burke's last 8 starts this season. He starts tonight.
platoon_edgePHI @ STL
Bryce Harper (bats L) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Bryce Harper against a right-hander from the three-hole is about as lopsided a matchup as this slate offers, and Pallante throws from exactly that side. There's no soft-pitch plan that changes what this at-bat is — the best version of the best hitter in this lineup, with traffic already possible in front of him.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
bullpen_fatiguePHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Rangel's 55-pitch relief outing is the one real fatigue flag in Philadelphia's pen — that's the kind of workload that usually costs a few days, not a look tonight. Everybody else who pitched twice this stretch kept their pitch counts light, Duran especially at just 27 total across two outings, so the Phillies are actually in good shape to get outs against St. Louis.
heat_checkBAL @ MIN
Royce Lewis: 1.095 OPS in Last 15 Days
Royce Lewis's last two weeks aren't a couple of lucky nights rounding up — that big a window with this much power behind it says the swing itself is different right now. Thirteen home runs on the year already, and this stretch says he's fully online tonight.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
platoon_edgeBAL @ MIN
Trevor Larnach (bats L) hits 1st against Brandon Young (RHP)
Trevor Larnach leading off against a right-hander is the tested, proven version of this at-bat, not the thin look he gets against lefties, and Brandon Young has to establish himself immediately against it. That's the identity version of this hitter opening the game, not a question mark.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
gary_hr_threatsRoyals @ Dodgers
Jac Caglianone
Gary's Take He's running the hottest bat on this entire slate — five homers and a 1.141 OPS over his last fifteen games, and that power surge has come with real contact behind it, not just a couple of lucky flares. He's barreling the ball as hard as anyone in this lineup right now.
P 0 HR — 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
cooling_offSEA @ NYY
Ben Rice: .490 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Bryan Woo
Ben Rice's dip over just 46 plate appearances looks more like bad breaks than a broken swing, and tonight hands him a pitcher type he's handled well all year in Bryan Woo. This is the kind of matchup where a correction tends to show up first.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkHOU @ SF
Cam Smith: 1.126 OPS in Last 15 Days
Forty-one plate appearances is a smaller window, fair to view with a little skepticism, but sixteen homers on the year says the pop was never the question. One squared-up ball tonight clears the number they've set for him.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Cardinals
Bryce Harper
Gary's Take Harper's gone deep four times in his last fifteen games, and the quality of contact underneath that stretch is even better than the results — his expected slugging and expected weighted on-base are both a step ahead of his actual numbers, which tells me he's barreling balls that haven't all found the seats yet. Pallante is a different pitcher against left-handed hitters than he is against right-handers — a .707 OPS and six homers allowed in limited left-handed at-bats is a real crack in his season.
P 0 HR — 0-for-2, 0 TB, 2 BB
platoon_edgeCOL @ ARI
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
Lars Nootbaar leading off against a right-hander is a real, dependable step up from what he does against lefties, and that's exactly the edge that matters most before a pitcher's found his release point. Sugano opens the game against the better version of this hitter.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
heat_checkKC @ LAD
Jac Caglianone: 1.141 OPS in Last 15 Days
He was hitting well before this stretch even started, so this looks like a good bat getting better rather than a fluke. Twenty-one homers on the season, and the total bases number tonight barely asks for one clean hit.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB, 1 BB
head_to_headCOL @ ARI
Diamondbacks are 7-4 vs Rockies this season
Arizona's taken the season series from Colorado 7-4, and the last meeting wasn't close — a 9-0 blowout. The Diamondbacks have had this team's number all year, and tonight's just the next chapter.
head_to_headBOS @ TOR
Blue Jays are 8-5 vs Red Sox this season
Blue Jays lead the season series 8-5 over Red Sox. TOR won the last meeting 5-3.
gary_hr_threatsPirates @ Marlins
Griffin Conine
Gary's Take Conine is running the hottest power stretch on either roster right now — five home runs and a .968 OPS over his last fifteen games, capped by a two-homer night his last time out. He's not just hot in a part-time role, either.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
ballpark_shiftBAL @ MIN
Bailey Ober owns a 2.72 ERA at Target Field — 6.75 everywhere else
Bailey Ober turns into a completely different pitcher at Target Field — 2.72 ERA and hitters at .194 off him at home, against a 6.75 mark everywhere else. That split's held up across 53 innings there, which is real, and Baltimore sees the home version of him tonight.
P 6 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
gary_hr_threatsOrioles @ Twins
Pete Alonso
Gary's Take Two nights ago in Texas, Alonso had his first multi-homer game since he put on an Orioles uniform, and that swing hasn't cooled off. Look past the box score and the contact quality backs it up — he's barreling balls at a rate few hitters in this lineup can match right now, which tells me the recent power isn't a hot-hand mirage, it's just good hitting.
P 1 HR — 3-for-4, 6 TB, 1 BB
platoon_edgeSEA @ NYY
Luis Garcia Jr. (bats L) gets a RHP from the 4th spot
Luis Garcia Jr.'s vs. Right line (.914 OPS, 316 AB) sits well above his .588 mark the other way (60 AB). Tonight's starter Bryan Woo throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 2-for-4, 4 TB
starter_formPIT @ MIA
Paul Skenes: 8.16 ERA over his last 3 starts
Paul Skenes' command has come apart the last three times out — a WHIP pushing past 1.70 says he's missing the zone, not just running into tough luck on balls in play. The season ERA still reads like a frontline arm, but it hasn't caught up to a stretch that's come with shorter outings and real damage. Miami gets whichever version shows up tonight, and lately it hasn't been the one on the season line.
P 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
head_to_headNYM @ ATL
Mets are 7-4 vs Braves this season
New York's owned this series all year, 7-4 over Atlanta with an 8-5 win in the last meeting. That's a season's worth of head-to-head results the Mets carry into tonight's game.
cooling_offCHC @ WSH
CJ Abrams: .652 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Shota Imanaga
CJ Abrams has looked a step slow over 55 plate appearances now, and Imanaga is already the tougher release point for him even healthy. A hitter searching for his timing rarely finds it against the side of the plate that's given him the most trouble all year.
P 1-for-5, 4 TB
cooling_offTEX @ LAA
Zach Neto: .401 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Cody Bradford
Zach Neto's two-week slide is real over 56 plate appearances, but Cody Bradford happens to be exactly the type of arm that's brought out the better version of him all season. Left-handers are the one release point where he's actually outproduced his own numbers, so tonight's a good spot for it to turn.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
gary_hr_threatsMets @ Braves
Matt Olson
Gary's Take Olson's been the hottest power bat in either dugout — seven home runs in his last fifteen games, and the contact underneath that stretch backs it up, not just balls finding grass. He's squaring balls up and driving them, not getting lucky bounces.
P 1 HR — 1-for-3, 4 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkCHC @ WSH
Alex Bregman: .974 OPS in Last 15 Days
Alex Bregman's stretch is the most durable case on the board tonight — sixty plate appearances of real production, not a heater that flames out in a week. A dozen home runs on the year backs up that the pop behind it is legitimate.
P 2-for-4, 5 TB, 1 BB
heat_checkMIL @ SD
Jackson Merrill: .987 OPS in Last 15 Days
Jackson Merrill's already got nineteen home runs this season, so this isn't a light bat suddenly finding pop — it's an established slugger climbing even higher. Right now he's playing the best baseball of his year.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
heat_checkNYM @ ATL
Francisco Lindor: 1.033 OPS in Last 15 Days
Francisco Lindor's climb over this stretch says something in the approach actually shifted, not just a couple of loud games padding the line. Eleven home runs on the season backs the power up, and nothing about the shape of this run looks like it's slowing down tonight.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
bullpen_fatigueTB @ OAK
Tampa Bay Rays pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Wells and Matz have carried the bulk-innings load for Tampa's pen this stretch, three innings apiece across two outings each, and both have already gone twice in three days. Roycroft and Legumina are the freshest arms in the group, one look apiece at 25 pitches or fewer, so if the starter doesn't go deep tonight against Oakland, this pen gets pushed right back to the two names who've already carried it.
cooling_offPIT @ MIA
Otto Lopez: .580 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Paul Skenes
Otto Lopez's trouble against right-handers was already real before the last two weeks turned cold — 353 at-bats worth of a genuine weakness — and Skenes landing on the schedule tonight makes it worse timing, not better. When a slump overlaps with the one pitcher type that's always given a hitter trouble, neither problem cancels the other out.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
heat_checkCHC @ WSH
Nico Hoerner: .959 OPS in Last 15 Days
Nico Hoerner's rise over this stretch looks like a hitter locked in on pitch recognition and finding the barrel more often, not two good nights rounding up. He's making pitchers earn every single out right now.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
two_start_weekColorado Rockies — week of 8/10
Gabriel Hughes
Monday's start at the Diamondbacks is already on the books, so the only decision left on this sheet is Saturday, on the road at the Giants. That 2.42 xERA is the best number anywhere in this group of two-start arms, full stop — nothing about a split road week changes what he's done all season. Best number in the tier. Saturday's the only start left to make, and it's an easy yes.
heat_checkPHI @ STL
Bryson Stott: 1.099 OPS in Last 15 Days
Bryson Stott's never been a power bat — eight home runs on the year says this surge is coming from sharper decisions and harder contact, not a sudden power spike. That's a long enough stretch to trust it's real.
P 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
closer_watchCIN @ CHW
Grant Taylor / Bryan Hudson
Taylor's out front 6-4 on saves, but both arms sit at 8 holds -- that's a team spreading high-leverage innings, not a locked-in ninth. He's fully rested off one outing in the last three games, and Chicago's -166 at home on Cincinnati, so there should be a lead to protect. Live spot, shared job. Start Taylor if he's rostered, but budget for Hudson stealing one this week -- this is a two-man committee with matching workload, not a hierarchy that happens to carry a committee label.
cooling_offPHI @ STL
Brandon Marsh: .460 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Andre Pallante
Brandon Marsh's production against right-handers over 314 at-bats doesn't just vanish in two bad weeks, and Pallante is exactly the type he's had success against for a long stretch. This reads much more like results lagging behind quality contact than a swing that's actually broken.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
gary_hr_threatsPhillies @ Cardinals
Kyle Schwarber
Gary's Take Schwarber is the most obvious power threat on this board, which is why the price is short, but I still want a piece of it. He hit two out against Toronto earlier this week, and the batted-ball data behind that game backs it up — three barrels in his last seventeen balls in play and an exit velocity reading well above average.
P 0 HR — 1-for-3, 1 TB, 1 BB
ownedKC @ LAD
Freddie Freeman vs Michael Wacha: .533
Freeman's 8-for-15 with five walks against Wacha for his career — a 1.450 OPS in a small sample, but a loud one. He's not walking in cold either, sitting around .733 over his last fifteen games.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
Tomoyuki Sugano: 4.51 ERA vs 7.15 xERA
Sugano's actual numbers don't match the contact he's allowing — a barrel rate near 14 percent and hard contact in almost 44 percent of at-bats, and the .264 he's actually allowed is running nearly 50 points under what that contact should earn hitters. With just 5.1 strikeouts per nine, there's no swing-and-miss cushion if that contact luck turns, and Arizona's a good spot for it to turn tonight.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
platoon_edgeCIN @ CHW
Randal Grichuk (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
Randal Grichuk's vs. Left line (.896 OPS, 112 AB) sits well above his .630 mark the other way (60 AB). Tonight's starter Nick Lodolo throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
P 1-for-4, 2 TB
cooling_offKC @ LAD
Tommy Edman: .427 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Michael Wacha
Edman's full-season production sits well above this two-week stretch, and a gap that size for a hitter with his track record usually comes down to luck. Wacha's right-handed, where Edman's done his best career damage — a reasonable spot for his numbers to look like himself again.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ ARI
Corbin Carroll
An .802 OPS hitting second is an every-day lineup-anchor number on its own, and tonight he draws Tomoyuki Sugano and that 7.16 xERA — a pitcher currently struggling. That's a matchup you circle. MUST_ADD, full stop — there's no format where Carroll sits on waivers tonight.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ ARI
James McCann
A .304 average carrying an .807 OPS from the catcher spot is already a job for your roster before the matchup even factors in — line him up against that same laboring Sugano (7.16 xERA) and it's a two-part case: the role, and the spot. MUST_ADD — a catcher-eligible bat hitting .304 doesn't sit in any format, and tonight's matchup only adds to it.
streakingCOL @ ARI
ARI games have gone UNDER 4 straight
4 straight unders for ARI — their games are producing only 5.5 runs against numbers around 8.9. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 5 vs 10.5
cooling_offBOS @ TOR
Ernie Clement: .493 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Patrick Sandoval
Ernie Clement's dip over 54 trips to the plate is mild enough to be a normal cold spell any everyday hitter runs into, but Sandoval is already a tough release point for him even in a good week. This sets up more as a grind of an at-bat than a night he breaks out.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
streakingTB @ OAK
TB games have gone UNDER 4 straight
Tampa Bay Rays games have stayed UNDER 4 straight — just 4.3 runs a night against an average line of 8.3. Tonight's number sits at 10.5.
P final total 16 vs 10.5
streakingSEA @ NYY
SEA have lost 4 straight
Seattle Mariners have dropped 4 straight, outscored by 16 runs over the skid; 3-7 across their last 10.
P team lost 1-4
heat_checkBAL @ MIN
Coby Mayo: 1.087 OPS in Last 15 Days
Coby Mayo's fifteen home runs this season say the power backing this stretch is real, not a product of the hot streak itself. A half-base total tonight is about as easy an ask as this slate offers a hitter running this hot.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Logan Henderson
The Monday trip to the Padres is done — and that was actually the same game Casey Mize started on the other side, so anyone rostering both arms got a direct head-to-head Monday. What's left is Saturday at the Dodgers, with rotation mate Kyle Harrison running the identical trip one day behind him the whole week: Padres then Dodgers for both. Season xERA of 2.62 trails only Hughes in this group. One road start banked, one more at the Dodgers Saturday — stays a top-two arm in the tier all week.
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
James McCann: .304 AVG vs .223 xBA
James McCann's average is running a full 81 points ahead of what his actual contact supports, and that gap is showing up in barely 100 trips to the plate. The further a hitter gets out in front of what he's actually hitting, the harder that snapback tends to be.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cooling_offNYM @ ATL
Drake Baldwin: .555 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Nolan McLean
Drake Baldwin's slump carries real weight over 58 plate appearances, but tonight's matchup does a lot of the lifting regardless — right-handers are already the release point that lifts him furthest above his own season level, and McLean gives him exactly that look.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB, 1 BB
cut_listCIN tonight
Nick Lodolo
Lodolo's ERA sits at 4.6 — a number that keeps him rosterable on the surface. But his xERA is 6.14, a 1.54-run gap. That's real separation between the results and the process, even if it's not as extreme as some. He's on the mound tonight, which is one more chance for the gap to close the wrong way before you have to make this call again next week. Cut, or at least stop trusting the ERA — the process number says this is closer to a streaming arm than a roster piece.
two_start_weekToronto Blue Jays — week of 8/10
Dylan Cease
Both turns are at home in Toronto — the Red Sox today, the Yankees closing the week out Sunday. The Red Sox actually catch two arms off this sheet this week, since they also draw Skenes in Pittsburgh on Sunday, so I'll be watching how that lineup answers a tough matchup twice in the same week. Season xERA of 2.70 is third-best in the group, behind only Hughes and Henderson. Two home turns, third-cleanest number in the tier — start him today and again Sunday without hesitation.
running_gamePIT @ MIA
Miami Marlins like to run — Henry Davis (48% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
This is a fight neither side backs down from — Davis has the arm to make Miami pay for testing him, and Miami's speed is good enough to make him prove it anyway. Every stolen base is a free trip into scoring position, every runner he throws out kills a rally before it becomes a run.
P Miami Marlins stole 1 base
starter_formSEA @ NYY
Ryan Weathers: 0.48 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Weathers is missing bats right now instead of just managing contact — seventeen strikeouts over his last three starts and a WHIP well below his season mark. The book on him is still built around a mid-3s ERA, which means New York's about to see a sharper pitcher than his reputation suggests.
P 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
platoon_edgeCLE @ DET
Kevin McGonigle (bats L) hits 1st against Tanner Bibee (RHP)
Over 310 AB vs. Right, Kevin McGonigle owns a .872 OPS versus .685 in 127 AB the other way. He sees RHP Tanner Bibee tonight hitting 1st, where the platoon side lines up his way.
P 2-for-4, 3 TB
starter_formTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 10.22 ERA over his last 3 starts
Ryan Johnson isn't having a rough three starts, he's having the same year he's had all along, just louder — a season ERA already north of seven, and now a WHIP past 2.0 with fourteen earned runs in his last three turns. Nothing in this stretch points toward a correction, and Texas hands him the ball again tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
platoon_edgeCLE @ DET
Dillon Dingler (bats R) gets a RHP from the 3rd spot
Dillon Dingler's vs. Right line (.926 OPS, 290 AB) sits well above his .715 mark the other way (125 AB). Tonight's starter Tanner Bibee throws RHP, the hand he hits best.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
heat_checkCLE @ DET
Colt Keith: 1.125 OPS in Last 15 Days
Colt Keith's two-week surge is the smallest window in this group, but he's already got eight home runs on the year backing up that the pop is real. A half-base total tonight is about as low a bar as this slate sets for anyone running hot.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
two_start_weekMilwaukee Brewers — week of 8/10
Kyle Harrison
He's on the mound at the Padres today, a day behind Henderson on the exact same trip, then follows him into the Dodgers series Sunday. A 3.01 xERA is tied with Skenes for the middle of the group — nothing on this sheet suggests either turn plays any different than the ones before it. Running Henderson's exact trip a day later — start him with the same confidence both times out.
closer_watchSEA @ NYY
David Bednar
Bednar at 26 saves to Yarbrough's 2 is a real hierarchy, not a committee in name only. Yankees favored -130 at home on Seattle gives him a lead to work with. Only flag is workload -- two outings in the last three days, even tagged fully rested, is enough recent volume that a team skips a low-stakes night on schedule alone. Still the most trustworthy save in this group. Roster him with confidence, just don't be shocked if a comfortable lead tonight goes to a fresh arm instead, purely on recent usage.
heat_checkNYM @ ATL
Carson Benge: .986 OPS in Last 15 Days
The last 15 days sample runs 47 PA: a .986 OPS versus .742 for the season, 0.244 above his norm. He has 13 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
starter_formCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts
Nick Lodolo's strikeouts are climbing while the runs dry up, and his WHIP has actually dropped below where it's sat all season — that's not soft-contact luck, that's real. Cincinnati's sending the best version of him tonight against the White Sox.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
bullpen_fatiguePIT @ MIA
Pittsburgh Pirates pen: 15 relief IP over their last 3 games
Yates working both of the last two days is the clearest fatigue flag in Pittsburgh's pen, and Sisk isn't far behind at 61 pitches across his two outings this stretch. Doval and Soto are the freshest arms in the group, one look apiece in the 20-pitch range, so a close game against Miami tonight is more likely to run through them.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ ARI
Nolan Arenado
A .755 OPS with the average sitting at .242 isn't the pitch by itself, but the reason to care today is who's on the mound across from him — Sugano, 7.16 xERA, currently struggling. STREAM tier is the honest call — start him for the Sugano matchup, don't marry the roster spot beyond it.
heat_checkPIT @ MIA
Jakob Marsee: .984 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .984 OPS spans the last 15 days (34 PA) against a .637 season baseline, a 0.347 swing. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 0-for-2, 0 TB, 1 BB
cut_listSF tonight
Carson Whisenhunt
Starts tonight for SF — 6.72 xERA behind a 7.25 ERA.
two_start_weekPittsburgh Pirates — week of 8/10
Paul Skenes
He's on the road at the Marlins today, then comes home to close the week against the Red Sox Sunday — the same Red Sox lineup Cease deals with today in Toronto. A 3.01 xERA is tied with Harrison for the middle of the group, with only Bradford and Mize carrying a higher number. Two clean turns on this sheet — take him on the road today and at home Sunday, no second thoughts.
two_start_weekLos Angeles Dodgers — week of 8/10
Tarik Skubal
Monday's home start against the Royals already happened. What's still ahead is Saturday, and it's a notable one — the Brewers, the same club sending both Henderson and Harrison out this week, come to him at home. A 2.99 xERA is better than every arm in this group except Hughes, Henderson, and Cease. Monday's locked in — start him again Saturday against the Brewers with the same confidence.
cooling_offBAL @ MIN
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: .372 OPS in Last 15 Days
That .372 OPS spans the last 15 days (28 PA) against a .755 season baseline, a 0.383 drop.
P 3-for-4, 6 TB
cooling_offCLE @ DET
Brayan Rocchio: .408 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Drew Anderson
Brayan Rocchio's .408 OPS over the last 15 days (43 PA) trails his .692 season mark, down 0.284. Tonight he draws RHP Drew Anderson — his stronger side: a .707 OPS vs RHP across 280 AB.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
ballpark_shiftCHC @ WSH
At Nationals Park, Jake Irvin pitches to a 7.04 ERA
Jake Irvin is somehow worse at home than on the road — hitters near .330 against him at Nationals Park and an ERA over two runs higher than his away work, holding up across 23 innings. The Cubs get a real crack at the more hittable version of him tonight.
P 3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
bullpen_fatigueTEX @ LAA
Texas Rangers pen: 14.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Texas Rangers's bullpen has thrown 14.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 2 arms working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
two_start_weekNew York Mets — week of 8/10
Christian Scott
The weakest number on this list at 3.79, which is exactly why he's a streamer and not a plan-around arm. Monday's Braves start already happened. What's left is Sunday at home against the Nationals. One start left - stream him for that Sunday matchup, don't hand him the lineup spot automatically.
fantasy_pickupsCOL @ ARI
Ketel Marte
Same shape as Arenado — .75 OPS, .247 average, nothing loud in the everyday line — but batting cleanup against a Sugano start (7.16 xERA, struggling) is tonight's reason to care. STREAM tier — a matchup play against Sugano tonight, not an add-and-forget.
two_start_weekSan Francisco Giants — week of 8/10
Blade Tidwell
Two starts this scoring week (second projected on rotation) — Mon 8/10 vs Astros (played), Sat 8/15 vs Rockies (proj). 3.15 xERA this season.
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Nick Martinez: 2.65 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Nick Martinez's numbers are mostly earned — a hard-hit rate barely over 32 percent and a barrel rate near 7 percent both say the contact against him really is soft. There's a little extra shine on top, the average allowed running 32 points under what that contact should produce, but with strikeouts modest at 5.1 per nine, he needs that contact management to keep holding up tonight.
P 9 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
two_start_weekTexas Rangers — week of 8/10
Cody Bradford
Both turns are on the road this week, the Angels today and the Athletics closing it out Sunday — the only arm in this group not seeing a single inning at home. A 3.18 xERA is the second-highest number in the tier — only Mize's is higher — but he still made a list I'm calling Plan Around, and that's worth something on its own. Full road slate, still a start-with-confidence week — take both turns.
regression_tomorrowNYM @ ATL
Zac Thornton: 2.52 ERA vs 4.63 xERA
Zac Thornton's contact management is nothing special — hard-hit rate near 40 percent, barrel rate under 9 — but the average he's actually allowed is running 51 points under what that contact earns hitters. A gap that size doesn't sit on ordinary contact for long, and Atlanta gets a look at him tomorrow with that cushion due.
regression_tomorrowCOL @ ARI
Merrill Kelly: 4.88 ERA vs 6.98 xERA
Merrill Kelly's getting hit hard — better than 44 percent hard contact and a barrel rate over 12 percent — and the .274 he's actually allowed is running 26 points under the .300 his contact earns hitters. That's more about where the ball's found grass than anything he's doing to prevent it, and Colorado gets a look at that bill tomorrow.
two_start_weekSan Diego Padres — week of 8/10
Casey Mize
Monday's home start against the Brewers is done — worth noting, that's the same game Henderson took the ball for on the other side, so that one came with a built-in measuring stick. What's left is Saturday on the road at the Guardians. A 3.34 xERA is the highest number in this group, but that says more about how strong this whole tier is than it does about him. One turn banked against a fellow tier arm, one more at the Guardians Saturday — stays in the plan-around group.
ballpark_shiftTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson's ERA drops to 5.92 at Angel Stadium
Ryan Johnson's actually the better version of himself at home — 5.92 at Angel Stadium against an 8.20 mark everywhere else, with hitters at .240 off him there. Still not good, but it's the more manageable version, and it's the one the Rangers see tonight.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ CHW
Miguel Vargas
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .810 OPS, bats 3rd.
regression_watchCOL @ ARI
Mickey Moniak: .274 AVG vs .225 xBA
302 plate appearances behind this, a real sample, and both the average and the deeper numbers have outrun the contact quality the whole way. A gap that's held up this long doesn't have to unwind all at once, but it caps how much higher this realistically goes.
P 0-for-3, 0 TB
starter_formPHI @ STL
Andre Pallante: 1.45 ERA over his last 3 starts
Andre Pallante's allowed three earned runs combined over his last three turns, and his WHIP has dropped well below his season mark right along with it — that's command, not luck. The 3.63 on the season is carrying a lot of starts that look nothing like his last three, and Philadelphia's the one who has to deal with the version that's been shutting lineups down.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Zack Gelof: .277 AVG vs .228 xBA
251 plate appearances of the results consistently running ahead of how well he's actually squaring the ball up. Gaps like that tend to shrink as the sample grows, not the other way around.
P 1-for-4, 1 TB
cooling_offCLE @ DET
Riley Greene: .586 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Tanner Bibee
Riley Greene's .586 OPS over the last 15 days (42 PA) trails his .815 season mark, down 0.229. Tonight he draws RHP Tanner Bibee — his stronger side: a .869 OPS vs RHP across 292 AB.
P 0-for-0, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ CHW
Randal Grichuk
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .804 OPS, bats 4th.
regression_tomorrowPHI @ STL
Kyle Leahy: 3.44 ERA vs 5.22 xERA
Kyle Leahy's allowing loud contact — hard-hit rate near 49 percent, barrel rate over 10 — and unlike some of these gaps, the average he's allowing is close to what that contact actually earns, just 11 points off. So whatever's propping up the ERA isn't balls dying in gloves, it's how the hits have been timed, and that kind of sequencing luck is usually the first thing to go. Philadelphia gets a look at him tomorrow with the loud contact still very much in play.
ballpark_shiftCLE @ DET
At Comerica Park, Drew Anderson pitches to a 2.97 ERA
Drew Anderson turns into a different pitcher at Comerica Park — 2.97 ERA and hitters batting .182 off him there, against a 5.03 mark everywhere else. That split's held up across 19 home starts, which is a real sample, and it's the version Cleveland sees tonight.
P 4 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
starter_formCHC @ WSH
Shota Imanaga: 1.53 ERA over his last 3 starts
Shota Imanaga's allowed three runs across his last three starts, and the walks have stayed just as rare as they've been all season — this isn't a guy who found something new, it's one who was already sharp tightening up further. Washington's catching him at his best in a month.
P 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
regression_watchCIN @ CHW
Nick Lodolo: 4.6 ERA vs 6.14 xERA
Lodolo's strikeout stuff backs up the season number — 7.2 punchouts per nine and a barrel rate under 8 percent both say he can miss bats and keep contact tame. The traffic's the real concern, a WHIP near 1.47, but the average he's allowing is only about 15 points under what his contact earns him — a small assist, not a lucky number. That swing-and-miss stuff travels to Chicago tonight, though with that many runners on, one bad inning is always in play.
P 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Chandler Simpson: .305 AVG vs .258 xBA
Simpson's carried this same gap for 445 plate appearances — basically the whole season — and it hasn't closed once. When a gap survives that much playing time, I trust the contact quality over the batting average.
P 2-for-4, 2 TB
cut_listCIN tonight
Hector Rodriguez
Still hitting 6th for CIN — 0.497 OPS, 0.154 AVG from the 6-hole.
regression_watchPIT @ MIA
Jake Mangum: .303 AVG vs .257 xBA
349 plate appearances in and Mangum's average still hasn't come back down to what his contact quality says it should be. That's too big a sample to call a hot streak — I'd expect the number bleeding toward .257 before it stops.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
cut_listTOR tonight
Brett Bateman
Still hitting 2nd for TOR — 0.578 OPS, 0.222 AVG from the 2-hole.
regression_watchTEX @ LAA
Ryan Johnson: 7.11 ERA vs 5.72 xERA
Nothing about Ryan Johnson's line is bad luck — a WHIP pushing 1.6 and a barrel rate near 11 percent both say the traffic and contact have been a genuine problem. On top of that shaky process, he's allowing .280 against, 11 points worse than the .269 his own contact quality earns him. Texas gets a pitcher tonight who's pitching poorly and getting unlucky on top of it.
P 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
cut_listCHW tonight
Brenton Doyle
Still hitting 1st for CHW — 0.577 OPS, 0.221 AVG from the 1-hole.
ballpark_shiftPHI @ STL
At Busch Stadium, Andre Pallante pitches to a 4.34 ERA
Here's the wrinkle with Pallante — as good as he's been lately, Busch Stadium hasn't actually been kind to him. He's a 4.34 ERA there over a long track record, against 2.55 everywhere else, with hitters at .276 off him in St. Louis. Home field hasn't been the advantage you'd assume for him tonight.
P 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
running_gameMIL @ SD
San Diego Padres like to run — William Contreras (40% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Contreras throws out 40% of runners, one of the best marks in the league, and San Diego's going to test him anyway. That's strength on strength on the bases tonight, not a free run for anybody.
P San Diego Padres stole 0 bases
park_weatherHOU @ SF
Wind blowing out 10 mph at Oracle Park tonight
Oracle Park usually kills fly balls to center, but ten out and a clear 65 degrees changes that tonight. An 8 total already needs offense from both sides — if balls that normally die on the track start reaching the wall, that number's in trouble early.
P final total 5 vs 8 (over lean)
park_weatherPHI @ STL
95° at Busch Stadium — the ball will carry tonight
It's 95 degrees at Busch with the wind blowing straight out to center, and those two things stack instead of canceling out — fly balls that die on the track most nights just keep carrying tonight. Both lineups get that benefit, and pitchers lose whatever margin they'd normally have working up in the zone, which makes that 7.5 total worth a second look.
P final total 2 vs 7.5 (over lean)
regression_watchCHC @ WSH
Nico Hoerner: .260 AVG vs .298 xBA
Hoerner's actual average sits 38 points below what his contact quality says it should be, and that gap has held for 515 plate appearances — basically his whole season. The wOBA shortfall says the same thing from a different angle, which makes this a hitter still owed some hits, not one who ran cold for a week.
P 2-for-3, 3 TB
heat_checkCLE @ DET
Spencer Torkelson: .871 OPS in Last 15 Days
Over the last 15 days (50 PA) he is at a .871 OPS, up 0.133 on his .738 season mark. He has 20 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.
P 1-for-3, 2 TB, 1 BB
regression_watchPIT @ MIA
Spencer Horwitz: .269 AVG vs .231 xBA
Horwitz is hitting .269 with the batted-ball profile of a .231 hitter, and 321 plate appearances is too much runway for that gap to just be noise. The power's mostly earned — the wOBA gap is much tighter — but the average is carrying more than the contact underneath it has paid for.
P 0-for-4, 0 TB
fantasy_pickupsCIN @ CHW
Colson Montgomery
Pickup vs Nick Lodolo (6.15 xERA) — .741 OPS, bats 6th.
bullpen_fatigueTEX @ LAA
Los Angeles Angels pen: 13.7 relief IP over their last 3 games
Los Angeles Angels's bullpen has thrown 13.7 innings across their last 3 games, with 1 arm working multiple of them. A worked-down pen heading into tonight.
cut_listLAA tonight
Ryan Johnson
Johnson's the outlier of the group. His ERA is 7.11 — uglier on the surface than either Sugano's or Lodolo's — but his xERA is 5.72, better than his own results by 1.39 runs. That's the reverse pattern from the other two: process has been outperforming results, not the other way around. He starts tonight same as the others, but the case for cutting him on ERA alone ignores that the underlying number is pulling in the opposite direction. Hold. The gap here favors the pitcher — cutting him off the ERA line alone would be reading the wrong number.
closer_watchBOS @ TOR
Louis Varland
Varland's the closer, not Rogers -- 4 saves against 23 holds makes Rogers a bridge arm, not a threat to the job. Toronto's -152 over Boston sets up a save chance if the lead holds. The real issue is he threw yesterday and has two outings in the last three games -- that's back-to-back-day work on a closer. Role's not in question, health of the workload is. Treat tonight as a game-time watch rather than an automatic save -- a short-rest closer in a comfortable favorite's spot is exactly when teams hand the ninth to someone else.
regression_tomorrowMIL @ SD
Robbie Ray: 3.24 ERA vs 4.6 xERA
Robbie Ray's underlying numbers actually back up the ERA — a barrel rate near 8 percent is genuinely good, and the average he's allowing is only about 10 points off what that contact should produce, which is as tight as these gaps get. San Diego gets him tomorrow against Milwaukee with that foundation intact.
ownedCHC @ WSH
Michael Busch vs Jake Irvin: .364
Busch has flat-out had Irvin's number — .364 across eleven at-bats is a hitter who's actually squared him up, not someone getting lucky bloops. His form elsewhere hasn't been much lately, but tonight puts him back in front of a pitcher he's already proven he can beat, and that matters more right now than the rest of his swing.
P 0-for-5, 0 TB
starter_formTB @ OAK
Mason Barnett: 7.11 ERA over his last 3 starts
Across his last 3 starts (12.7 IP) he has been tagged for 10 earned runs — a 7.11 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP (1.38 season) against a 5.56 season mark.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ WSH
Seiya Suzuki
Pickup vs Jake Irvin (5.4 xERA) — .831 OPS, bats 2nd.
regression_watchTB @ OAK
Mason Barnett: 5.56 ERA vs 4.41 xERA
Mason Barnett's strikeout stuff jumps out — 9.5 per nine is a real weapon — and the average hitters are actually managing against him is right in line with what his contact quality earns. When the swing-and-miss is that good and the average checks out, an ERA running over a run above the expected number usually means the runs came in bunches, not that the stuff's missing. The process says he's pitching better than an 0-8 record and a 5.56 ERA let on.
P 4 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
cut_listTOR tonight
Charles McAdoo
Still hitting 1st for TOR — 0.622 OPS, 0.185 AVG from the 1-hole.
starter_formKC @ LAD
Michael Wacha: 1.93 ERA over his last 3 starts
The last 3 times out: 18.7 innings, 4 earned runs, 11 Ks. That 1.93 ERA sits 1.51 runs under his 3.44 season number.
P 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
regression_watchBOS @ TOR
Patrick Sandoval: 3.38 ERA vs 4.48 xERA
The baserunners have been there all year — a 1.67 WHIP — but the damage hasn't followed, with barrels almost nonexistent at 4.1% and a strikeout rate near 9.4 that gives him a way out of the innings where traffic piles up. That's a hittable pitcher missing enough bats at the right moments, not a low-contact guy getting lucky, and the traffic against Toronto will be there again regardless.
P 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
return_watchARI — return listed 8/14
Jordan Lawlar
Hamstring, only the 10-day list, targeted for August 14 — three days away. He's sitting on a 0.856 OPS this season. Easy stash. Short IL stint, strong bat, three days out — there's no case for cutting him.
return_watchPIT — return listed 8/14
Oneil Cruz
Hand injury, 60-day list, but the listing has him back August 14 — three days out. He carries a 0.822 OPS into this absence. Stash. Three days from a return on a 0.822 OPS bat isn't a real decision — just don't treat that date as locked until he's actually back.
regression_tomorrowBOS @ TOR
José Soriano: 3.24 ERA vs 4.38 xERA
José Soriano's got real skill underneath this — a barrel rate under 8 percent even with a more middle-of-the-road hard-hit rate — but the average he's allowing is running 25 points under what that contact earns hitters, a genuine cushion on top of an already solid process. Toronto has him tomorrow against Boston with both the skill and the extra help still built into that number.
first_inningCHC @ WSH
YRFI watch: first innings have been live on both sides of CHC @ WSH
Both sides of this one have come out hitting all year — each club's scored a first-inning run in seven of its last ten games, which is a heavy number to see from both teams in the same matchup. The damage against tonight's starter has mostly come in one swing rather than a rally, five homers in 23 first innings, and with the total sitting almost even, this reads like a first inning that's live, not a formality.
P 1st inning: 0-2 (2 runs)
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/15
Carter Baumler
Rib injury, 60-day list, listed to return August 15 — four days out. His season ERA is 3.18. Stash if you've got the bullpen space. A 3.18 arm four days from returning is a cheap hold, not a must-have.
closer_watchHOU @ SF
Ryan Walker / Dylan Smith
Walker's 3-2 save edge over Smith is basically nothing, and Smith's got double the holds -- 6 to 3 -- which says he may already be seeing the tougher outs. Both arms are fully rested with zero outings in the last three games, so usage isn't tipping this either way. What matters more: Giants are a big +168 underdog at home on Houston, meaning a ninth-inning lead to protect is the exception tonight, not the plan. Skip this one for saves this week. The committee itself is a real coin flip, but the bigger problem is San Francisco isn't favored to even be in a save situation.
running_gameTB @ OAK
Green light: Tampa Bay Rays run, and Jonah Heim has caught just 15%
Jonah Heim's thrown out 7 of 48 base stealers this year — 15% — and Tampa Bay attempts 1.3 steals a game. That's as green as a light gets. Track meet incoming.
P Tampa Bay Rays stole 0 bases
ballpark_shiftBOS @ TOR
At Rogers Centre, Dylan Cease pitches to a 2.86 ERA
Dylan Cease is nasty everywhere, but Rogers Centre is actually the tougher building for him — a 2.86 ERA there against 1.71 on the road, even with hitters still only batting .201 off him at home. Toronto's still a hard climb for Boston tonight, just a little less extreme than his road number suggests.
P 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
fantasy_pickupsSEA @ NYY
Bryan Woo
Woo's ERA (4.31) is running well above his xERA (3.62) — a near-0.7-run gap between what he's allowed and what the process says he should allow. A 9 K/9 and a sharp 1.12 WHIP back the process side: he's missing bats and limiting traffic on the bases, so the ugly ERA reads like the outlier, not his true level. This one's on the road, SEA @ NYY, and he's still sitting at DEEP tier even with that skill profile in place. Deep-league managers needing rotation depth should add him now — the strikeout and WHIP numbers are ahead of the ERA, and DEEP availability means the wire hasn't priced that in yet. Best fit for someone who can stomach one road start while the ERA works back toward that 3.62 xERA.
regression_watchHOU @ SF
San Francisco Giants are 10-20 in one-run games (.333 win%)
San Francisco's 10-20 in one-run games, a .333 mark that's about as extreme as these get, and that kind of number usually finds its way back toward .500 over time. If that's been dragging the overall record down, the Giants might be a better team than the record shows walking into tonight against Houston.
first_inningBAL @ MIN
MIN have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
Minnesota hasn't scored a first-inning run in ten games, but tonight's number still leans toward one landing somewhere in this game. Ober's been locked in from the jump all year, sub-.220 against with the long ball rare, so it's a stretch to expect the Twins to be the ones who snap it. Young's allowed more early contact on the other side, which is the more likely source if a run does show up.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
regression_tomorrowKC @ LAD
Daniel Lynch IV: 2.46 ERA vs 3.37 xERA
Daniel Lynch IV is avoiding loud contact almost entirely — a 5 percent barrel rate is about as clean as it gets, backed up by a hard-hit rate near 34. There's a real results boost layered on top — the average he's allowed running 38 points under what that contact should produce — but the ERA itself is only about nine-tenths of a run under the expected number, so the skill's doing most of the work, not the luck. Kansas City gets a start from him tomorrow against the Dodgers on about as sturdy a foundation as you'll find.
regression_tomorrowTEX @ LAA
Cal Quantrill: 3.56 ERA vs 4.45 xERA
Quantrill's tomorrow's name against the Angels — 3.56 ERA outrunning a 4.45 expected mark by close to a run, backed up by a .237-against average that's beating its own .254 expected number.
first_inningSEA @ NYY
NYY have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 0 of their last 10
The Yankees haven't scored a first-inning run in ten straight games, and it's not because they've run into great pitching — both arms on the mound tonight have allowed real contact early this season. That's a lineup that needs a few batters to get comfortable, not a matchup problem, and tonight's starters aren't the kind that should keep the streak alive.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
regression_watchPHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies are 21-11 in one-run games (.656 win%)
Philadelphia's 21-11 in one-run games, a .656 mark on the extreme end in the other direction. That overall record might be flattering them a little more than the rest of the roster earns heading into St. Louis tonight.
regression_tomorrowNYM @ ATL
Tyler Mahle: 4.83 ERA vs 4 xERA
Tyler Mahle's contact quality is actually solid — a barrel rate under 7 percent says hitters aren't finding the sweet spot much — but he's allowing .259 against, 18 points worse than what that contact earns hitters. That's a good process getting outkicked by how the hits have landed, and Atlanta gets him tomorrow against the Mets with better stuff than that ERA is showing.
regression_watchBAL @ MIN
Baltimore Orioles are 10-18 in one-run games (.357 win%)
Baltimore's 10-18 in one-run games, a .357 mark that leans toward the extreme, and that kind of number tends to even out over time. The Orioles might be a tougher out than their overall record suggests walking into Minnesota tonight.
fantasy_pickupsCHC @ WSH
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga is the cleaner profile of the two — his 3.6 ERA is actually a shade better than his 3.73 xERA, so there's no hidden inflation here, just performance that matches the process. A 1.09 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 are both strong marks on their own, even trailing Woo's 9 K/9. He gets WSH in this one, and he's still sitting at DEEP tier despite the profile checking every box. Deep-league managers should add him too, with more confidence than Woo since nothing here needs positive regression to work — the ERA and the underlying number already agree. Best fit for someone who wants a stable rotation piece rather than a bet on a number correcting.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/17
Maikel Garcia
Hand injury, 10-day list, targeted for August 17 — six days out. The bat has been light this season: a 0.693 OPS. Tough to justify holding. Six days isn't long, but a 0.693 OPS bat hasn't earned the bench spot — let him go if you need the room.
running_gameBOS @ TOR
Green light: Boston Red Sox run, and Alejandro Kirk has caught just 16%
Alejandro Kirk's caught just 10 of 63 attempted base stealers — 16% — and Boston's already stolen 93 bags this season. Every incentive says they keep running tonight.
P Boston Red Sox stole 2 bases
running_gamePHI @ STL
Philadelphia Phillies like to run — Pedro Pages (33% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
Pagés isn't a soft target behind the plate — a 33% caught-stealing rate means Philadelphia takes on real risk every time it sends a runner instead of just banking an easy bag. Win that battle and St. Louis gets an out its pitcher didn't have to earn himself; lose it and the Phillies have a free runner in scoring position. However those throws go tonight will move more runs than most individual at-bats will.
P Philadelphia Phillies stole 1 base
return_watchTOR — return listed 8/18
Joe Mantiply
Knee injury, 60-day list, listed back for August 18 — seven days out. He's been sharp: a 2.04 ERA on the season. Stash if the roster allows it. A 2.04 ERA arm is worth a week's wait — just don't treat the date as guaranteed.
first_inningTEX @ LAA
TEX have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
Texas has scored one first-inning run in its last ten games, about as cold a stretch as a lineup can have to open a game. But the pitching across from them has been just as shaky early — an 8.10 first-inning mark with three homers allowed in ten innings — and tonight's number sides with that shaky arm over the cold bats.
P flagged team scored 1 in the 1st
first_inningHOU @ SF
SF have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
San Francisco's managed one first-inning run in its last ten games, and tonight's number agrees another quiet one is more likely than not. Brown's kept his first innings clean too, a 2.45 mark with the long ball showing up just once in eleven innings, so a cold offense running into a pitcher who limits early damage isn't a combination that usually produces fireworks.
P flagged team scored 0 in the 1st
return_watchTEX — return listed 8/20
Robert Garcia
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, targeted for August 20 — nine days out. His season ERA sits at 3.38. Low-priority stash. Nine days out on a middling ERA with a shoulder issue on a 60-day tag isn't worth fighting for unless the bench spot is free anyway.
return_watchKC — return listed 8/21
Nick Mears
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, targeted for August 21 — 10 days out. He's struggled this season: a 5.12 ERA. Cut him. Ten days away carrying a 5.12 ERA isn't worth protecting.
return_watchLAD — return listed 8/21
Gavin Stone
Shoulder injury, 60-day list, listed to return August 21 — 10 days out. There's no season line available to work with. Speculative at best. No stat to lean on and 10 days out — only stash if it costs you nothing.

Graded results

Games

W
Marlins ML +103
MLB · 0-2
L
Mets ML +117
MLB · 0-4
W
Cubs ML -169
MLB · 8-6
W
Blue Jays ML -129
MLB · 3-5
W
Yankees ML -129
MLB · 1-4
L
Twins ML -109
MLB · 5-2
W
Tigers ML -136
MLB · 4-6
L
Phillies ML -162
MLB · 0-2
L
White Sox ML -148
MLB · 5-4
L
Rangers ML -142
MLB · 2-3
W
Rays -1.5 -123
MLB · 12-4
L
Brewers ML -126
MLB · 2-11
L
Diamondbacks ML -165
MLB · 3-2
L
Astros -1.5 -119
MLB · 1-4
W
Royals +1.5 +104
MLB · 4-5

Props

L
Angel Martinez · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
W
Bailey Ober · under
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 4
L
Blake Snell · under
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 18
L
Brandon Lowe · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Brandon Nimmo · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Bryce Harper · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Cam Smith · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 2
L
Cam Smith · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Carson Whisenhunt · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 1
W
Chandler Simpson · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 2
L
Christian Walker · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
L
Cody Bradford · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 21
L
Cole Young · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Corbin Carroll · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Corey Seager · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Daylen Lile · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Dillon Dingler · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Drew Anderson · under
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 4
L
Dylan Cease · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 15
W
Eugenio Suarez · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 1
W
Eury Perez · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 7
W
Fernando Tatis Jr. · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Francisco Lindor · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Garrett Mitchell · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 1
L
Griffin Conine · over
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 0
L
Ian Happ · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 0
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Ivan Herrera · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Jackson Chourio · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
L
Jake Bauers · over
Brewers @ Padres · Actual 0
W
Jake Irvin · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 5
W
JJ Wetherholt · under
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
W
Joc Pederson · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 1
L
Jordan Walker · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Jose Siri · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Josh Bell · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Julio Rodriguez · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
W
Junior Caminero · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
W
Ketel Marte · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Kevin McGonigle · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Kyle Schwarber · over
Phillies @ Cardinals · Actual 0
L
Luis Garcia Jr. · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Martin Perez · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 0
W
Mason Barnett · under
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 12
W
Matt Olson · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 1
W
Michael Wacha · under
Royals @ Dodgers · Actual 3
L
Mickey Moniak · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Mike Trout · over
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 0
L
Mitch Bratt · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 1
L
Munetaka Murakami · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Nick Lodolo · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
L
Nolan Arenado · over
Rockies @ Diamondbacks · Actual 0
L
Nolan McLean · over
Mets @ Braves · Actual 3
L
Patrick Sandoval · under
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 18
W
Paul Skenes · under
Pirates @ Marlins · Actual 15
W
Pete Alonso · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 1
W
Pete Crow-Armstrong · over
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 1
L
Rafael Devers · over
Astros @ Giants · Actual 0
W
Royce Lewis · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Royce Lewis · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
W
Ryan Johnson · under
Rangers @ Angels · Actual 13
W
Ryan Weathers · under
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 4
W
Sean Burke · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 21
L
Shota Imanaga · under
Cubs @ Nationals · Actual 4
L
Spencer Torkelson · over
Guardians @ Tigers · Actual 0
L
Trent Grisham · over
Mariners @ Yankees · Actual 0
L
Tyler O'Neill · over
Orioles @ Twins · Actual 0
L
Tyler Stephenson · over
Reds @ White Sox · Actual 0
W
Victor Mesa Jr. · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1
W
Wilyer Abreu · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 1
W
Yandy Diaz · over
Rays @ Athletics · Actual 1