Astros at Giants
O/U 6.5 · RL Astros -1.5
Astros ML-140
CONF 64%
WCashedFinal 6-3
The read
Cool night by the bay, first pitch just before ten out east, and the fog is already rolling over the cove at Oracle. Houston comes in off a rough weekend in San Diego — three balls left the yard against Javier in one night. San Francisco is limping too, losers of seven of their last nine and further under .500 than they've been all season. Two teams that just got their teeth kicked in. Only one of them has the roster to do something about it tonight.
The Giants can't score. They're barely scratching across three runs a night lately, and that's not a slump so much as a subtraction problem — they traded Arraez and Ramos away, and behind Jung Hoo Lee and Rafael Devers there isn't much left. Eldridge has been cold for two weeks, McCray has one hit in his last dozen at-bats or so with the weakest contact in the lineup, and Koss is scuffling too. Six of the nine hitters swing from the left side, and Wesneski has been suffocating lefties all year without giving up a single home run to them. The deeper numbers say he's been living dangerously, and maybe he has, but he's doing it against the wrong lineup and inside a park that swallows fly balls for a living. He's also handled this club well in his handful of career starts against them, and I like where he's standing.
The other side of it is the fastball. Tidwell throws hard, but nobody has missed it — not one swing-and-miss on well over a hundred of them, and hitters have been crushing it when it catches the strike zone. He gets his outs with the breaking stuff; the heater is batting practice with speed on it. Houston sends six right-handed bats at him, with Altuve red-hot this past week, Cam Smith even hotter with two homers, and Walker hammering the ball as hard as anyone. Both starters are on short leashes — Wesneski is just two starts back from elbow surgery, Tidwell has barely any innings on him this year — so this lands in the bullpens' hands by the sixth, and that's the whole ballgame. Houston's relievers have barely been scored on all week with Hader, Abreu, and King all rested. San Francisco's have been leaking runs, and two of their arms have already worked back-to-back days. Oracle keeps games tight and low-scoring, which is why I'm not laying the run and a half. Astros to win straight up. They only need four.
The full analysis
The Giants can't score. Two point eight runs a game over their last ten, and that's not a slump so much as a subtraction problem — Arraez to Philadelphia, Ramos to Boston, and what's left behind Jung Hoo Lee and Rafael Devers is Eldridge at .184 over two weeks, McCray three-for-thirty with the softest contact in the lineup, Koss at .162. Six of the nine bat left-handed, and Wesneski is holding lefties to .214 with a .527 on-base-plus-slugging and not a single home run allowed to that side. His expected numbers say he's been walking a tightrope, and maybe he is, but he's walking it against the wrong lineup for them and inside a park that eats fly balls for a living. Add the six career games against this franchise with a .212 mark against and I like where he's standing.
Props on this game
3Christian WalkerOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-180
Not yet graded
Walker's reached base with a hit in thirteen of his last fifteen games, and it isn't empty contact — ninety-three and a half miles an hour average exit velocity over that stretch, ten balls scalded. He's a right-handed bat walking into the one pitch in Tidwell's mix that hasn't missed a bat all season: a mid-nineties fastball thrown better than a third of the time with a whiff rate of zero across a hundred-plus looks, and an expected weighted on-base near .450 whenever it's in the zone.
Walker doesn't need to solve the slider or the sweeper — those are the pitches Tidwell actually gets outs with. He needs one fastball to jump on, and he's going to see a few.
Slugging .456 on contact that's finding grass more often than not right now, in a ballpark that only takes away the deep ones. I like Walker getting his hit tonight.
Blade TidwellUNDER 3.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts+113
LActual 6
Tidwell hasn't struck out four hitters in a start in eight tries, and the one data point we have at the actual big-league level backs it up exactly — three punchouts in five innings against Texas last week, which he called a career high. This reads like a leash, not a lack of stuff — his slider is missing half the bats that swing at it and the sweeper gets its own share of empty swings too.
Tidwell said after that start he wished he could've gone longer because he felt like he hung the bullpen out to dry, which tells you the shorter outings are coming from the dugout's plan for him, not from getting hit around. Fewer innings means fewer chances at strikeouts, and the top of Houston's order isn't a swing-and-miss group to begin with — Altuve's whiff rate over the last two weeks is fourteen percent.
A number that's held every time recently, still paying plus money tonight.
Taylor TrammellOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+620
LActual 0
Trammell's put four home runs on the board over his last fifteen games, and the contact quality says this isn't a fluke — three barrels out of just fourteen balls in play, average exit velocity over ninety, and a chase rate under twenty percent, so he's not reaching for it. He's left-handed against a pitcher who's genuinely had trouble with that side: .333 with an .860 on-base-plus-slugging allowed to lefties, a home run already given up in thirty-three at-bats.
And everybody in this lineup gets a crack at the same soft spot — Tidwell's fastball, thrown better than a third of the time, hasn't drawn a swing-and-miss all year. Oracle Park usually knocks the wind down and kills fly balls, but tonight it's blowing out toward center, which isn't the norm there.
A hitter running hot with real exit-velocity numbers, a favorable matchup on paper, and the wind helping is worth a shot at plus-six-twenty.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store