Mets at Braves
O/U 13.5 · RL Braves -2.5
Braves ML-140
CONF 63%
LLostFinal 8-5
The read
It's a hot, sticky Monday night in Atlanta, the kind where the air just sits on the field, and the Braves are back home after a trip to the Bronx that snapped a winning streak but didn't do much other damage. The Mets come in well under .500, playing loose the way a team does once the standings stopped mattering, and they've been rolling on this road trip. First pitch at Truist Park, Bryce Elder against Christian Scott.
Here's what I keep coming back to: this one gets decided after the starters walk off, and only one side has an answer. Scott has the better arm tonight — big fastball, a breaking ball hitters swing right through — but he's been eased back slowly and has barely gotten past the fifth all summer. That hands the late innings to a New York bullpen that just lost Devin Williams to a shoulder problem, sent Curry back to the minors, and is filling the middle with a guy who was in Triple-A a few days ago. Atlanta goes to Lee, Dodd, Iglesias and Kinley, and none of them have been worked hard enough lately to be worn down tonight. Elder is the weaker of the two starters — he isn't missing bats the way he needs to, and when he gets hit, it goes a long way — but the Mets lineup is loaded with lefties in Ewing, Benge, Young and Baty, and that's the side of the matchup he's handled all year.
The rest is roster. Olson is scorching, hammering the ball and piling up home runs the last couple weeks, Acuña is doing damage again, Riley and Harris are driving in runs. New York has been loud, sure, but that was against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and this is deep into a long road trip against a team that actually catches the ball — Atlanta's glovework is clearly cleaner, and that shows up over nine innings. I passed on laying the run and a half for the bigger payout because Atlanta's wins have been tight, one-run kind of nights, and I don't need a cushion. I need the last at-bat and the better arms late, and the home team has both.
**Braves to win.**
The full analysis
Monday night in Atlanta, 87 degrees and the humidity sitting on the field like a wet towel, and the Braves come home off a Bronx trip that cost them a winning streak but not much else. The Mets roll in at 52-67, playing loose and free the way a team does when the standings stopped mattering in July, riding a road trip that has gone 5-1. Truist Park, first pitch 7:15, Bryce Elder against Christian Scott.
The rest is roster. Atlanta has Olson in the middle of a stretch where everything is leaving the bat at 93 and seven of them have left the yard in two weeks, Acuña doing damage again, Riley and Harris driving in runs. New York has been loud, but that noise came against Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and this is the seventh game of a nine-game trip against a club that catches the ball — 56 errors to their 79 is a real gap over nine innings. I passed on the runline at plus money because Atlanta's wins have been coming by a run at a time, 2-1 and 4-2 and 4-1, and I do not need a margin. I need the last at-bat and the better back end of the bullpen, and the home team has both.
**Braves ML -140.**
Props on this game
4Christian ScottOVER 5.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-112
WActual 6
Christian Scott has already seen this Braves lineup twice this year, and both times the strikeout total cleared tonight's number with room to spare — seven in four innings back on July 3rd, seven again in six innings on the 29th. The stuff that did it hasn't gone anywhere. His fastball still sits at 95 with a 28.6 percent whiff rate, the sweeper next to it gets swung through nearly a third of the time, and his swinging-strike rate hasn't had an off night in five starts running — 23, 30, 28, 25, 27 percent, one after another. He's sitting on over eleven strikeouts per nine for the season, and he doesn't need length to get there. His shortest outing of the stretch, three and two-thirds innings against Milwaukee, still got him to six strikeouts, and the next one after that, four innings against this same Braves lineup, got him to seven. Riley is swinging through four of every ten cuts he's taking right now, and Jarvis is chasing outside the zone on almost half his swings. Even with this lineup running hot on the scoreboard, there are holes in it that Scott's stuff was built to find.
**Christian Scott Over 5.5 strikeouts.**
Bryce ElderUNDER 4.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-120
WActual 4
Bryce Elder's last start looked great on the scoreboard — one hit in seven innings against Miami — but look at how he got there: a 10 percent swinging-strike rate, the lowest of the stretch, and the start before that wasn't much better at 16. Back-to-back outings where he wasn't missing bats, he was getting outs on quiet contact and the ball finding gloves. His two best swing-and-miss pitches, a slider and a cutter, get thrown a combined 40 percent of the time; the pitch he leans on most, a sinker at 28 percent usage, gets swung through under one time in ten. That's not an arsenal built around missing bats, and lately hitters have been finding more of the ball than his earned run average lets on, with a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate allowed to go with it. He's come in under this number in six of his last eight starts. New York's order doesn't chase much from this staff either — Semien under 15 percent, Ewing and Young both right around 20 — and a pitcher who already isn't missing bats has even less margin against hitters who make him throw it in the zone.
**Bryce Elder Under 4.5 strikeouts.**
Matt OlsonOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+290
LActual 0
Olson has been the best hitter in either dugout the last two weeks, and it isn't close. Seven home runs in his last fifteen games, three of them in the last week alone, and the way he's squaring up the baseball backs it up — an average exit velocity near 93, with six barrels on eighteen balls in play. A third of everything he's put in play lately has been struck about as well as a ball can be struck. That isn't a hot bounce or a few lucky landing spots, that's a hitter locked in.
Christian Scott gets the ball for the Mets tonight, and the shape of what he's allowed this year lines up with what Olson does for a living. Left-handed hitters have taken him deep six times in 184 at-bats; right-handers have managed one homer in 97. Same pitcher, same stuff, wildly different outcome depending which box the hitter stands in, and Olson stands in the one that's produced almost all of the damage. He's also still getting to know this Mets lineup after coming over mid-season, and I like leaning on the hitter who's shown me more the last two weeks than the pitcher has shown me in his time in New York.
Carson BengeOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+600
LActual 0
Benge is the best version of a hitter I can ask for right now — not just hot, but hot for reasons that hold up once you look at how he's getting there. A .409 average over his last week climbs to a 1.007 OPS across his last fifteen games, and the plate discipline backs it up: a whiff rate around seventeen percent and a chase rate around twenty-five, both among the best marks in this lineup. The quality of contact underneath those results is if anything a shade better than the numbers themselves, which tells me this isn't a hitter who's due to cool off.
Elder has been tougher on left-handed hitters for average this season, but the raw home run count he's allowed to lefties isn't far off what he's given up to righties — eleven in 293 at-bats is a real number, not a footnote. Benge is squaring the ball up as well as anyone in this lineup right now, and I think that carries through tonight regardless of which side of the plate he's standing in.
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