Rays at Mariners
O/U 7 · RL Mariners -1.5
Rays ML+108
CONF 61%
WCashedFinal 3-2
The read
Seattle is celebrating its history at home while trying to stop a rough stretch. Tampa Bay comes in riding four straight wins, and I’m backing them to keep rolling.
Griffin Jax is the key for me. He has been much better starting games than coming out of the bullpen, and he already held Seattle to one run across five innings in July. George Kirby has pitched well at home, but Tampa Bay has the deeper lineup and Seattle’s offense has struggled to score lately.
The bullpens could decide a close game. Tampa Bay’s relievers have been dependable, while Seattle’s have been hit hard lately. I’m getting the better team at a favorable price, so I’m taking the Rays to win.
The full analysis
Under the lights at T-Mobile Park, Seattle is celebrating its history while trying to stop a slide. The Rays arrive with four straight wins, and I’m backing them to keep rolling.
Griffin Jax is the key to the matchup. He has been far better as a starter than as a reliever and already limited Seattle to one run over five innings in July. George Kirby’s strong home form demands respect, but Tampa Bay brings the deeper lineup and faces a Mariners offense averaging just 3.0 runs over its past 10 games.
The bullpen gap can decide a tight game. Tampa Bay’s current relief group owns a 2.75 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, while Seattle’s pen has been hit hard lately. Getting the better team at plus money is enough for me: Rays moneyline at +108.
Props on this game
2George KirbyOVER 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed Pitcher Hits Allowed-110
LActual 4
This is a hit-allowance matchup, not a home-run bet. Kirby has allowed more than 5.5 hits in six of his last eight starts, with opponents batting .263 from the left side and .290 from the right this season.
Tampa Bay sends six left-handed or switch hitters to the plate, backed by a lineup batting .258 on the year. T-Mobile Park can suppress home runs without taking away singles and doubles, so I like Kirby to allow at least six hits at close to even money.
Jonathan ArandaOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+105
LActual 1
Aranda has cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games and enters tonight hitting .319 over that stretch. He is also making authoritative contact, with 12 hard-hit balls among his 23 recent balls in play.
Batting second gives him strong volume and puts Junior Caminero directly behind him. A hit and a run can cash this without requiring extra-base power, and Kirby has allowed left-handed hitters a .263 average and .739 OPS. I’ll take Aranda over 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs at plus money.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store