Tigers at Giants
O/U 8 · RL Tigers -1.5
Tigers ML-114
CONF 59%
WCashedFinal 8-0
The read
Saturday evening at Oracle Park, the wind is blowing toward center field, and the Giants are looking to build on Friday’s three-run win. I’m backing Detroit to answer in the second game.
The Tigers have been hitting better lately, with McGonigle, Dingler, Keith, and Torkelson all producing. They face Roupp after he gave up a lot of runs over his last three starts, and Detroit can attack him with hitters from both sides of the plate, making it tough for him to get comfortable.
Jobe’s return will be limited, so I’m only taking Detroit to win rather than asking for a bigger margin. The Tigers have the relief pitching and defense to support him after he leaves, and they put plenty of runners on base Friday despite scoring only twice. At a reasonable price, I’ll take the team with the better recent hitting to win.
The full analysis
The Tigers are swinging the better bat, with McGonigle, Dingler, Keith and Torkelson all producing lately. That lineup gets Roupp after he allowed 11 earned runs across 14⅓ innings in his last three starts, and Detroit’s left-right balance should make it difficult for him to settle into one comfortable plan.
Jobe’s return on a capped workload keeps this from being a run-line play, but Detroit has the bullpen and defense to support him once he exits. The Tigers also generated plenty of traffic Friday despite scoring only twice. At a manageable -114, I’ll take the better recent offense to cash the moneyline.
Props on this game
3Jackson JobeUNDER 13.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-105
LActual 15
Jobe is making his season debut after a lengthy recovery, and Detroit has already committed to a capped pitch count. He must record at least two outs in the fifth inning to beat this number, which leaves little margin for a long inning or cautious hook. At nearly even money, I’ll bet the workload restriction matters even if Jobe pitches well.
Landen RouppUNDER 17.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-125
WActual 16
Roupp has recorded only 11 and 14 outs in his last two starts, and he has allowed 11 earned runs across his last 14⅓ innings. Detroit’s lineup is deep, balanced and capable of extending counts, while Roupp has issued 52 walks in 118⅓ innings. He must complete six full innings to beat us, and I don’t expect him to get there in his first start for San Francisco.
Dillon DinglerOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+850
LActual 0
Dingler has four homers in his last 15 games and five barrels among his 26 recent balls in play. That power is supported by a .517 expected slugging percentage, so I’m willing to buy the biggest price among Detroit’s established threats.
Roupp leans on his sinker more than any other pitch, and hitters have produced a .446 expected wOBA against it. He has generally limited damaging contact, and Oracle Park raises the degree of difficulty, but +850 compensates for those concerns. One sinker left in Dingler’s damage zone can cash this.
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