Cubs at Royals
O/U 9.5 · RL Cubs -1.5
Chicago Cubs ML-148
CONF 62%
LLostFinal 3-6
The read
Saturday night at Kauffman Stadium, the Cubs are looking to keep their winning streak going while Kansas City tries to stop its skid. Chicago won the opener, and I’m backing the better team to finish the job again.
Seth Lugo hasn’t been locating his pitches reliably, and the quality of contact against him suggests he has pitched worse than his results show. That’s dangerous against a deep Cubs lineup led by a red-hot Pete Crow-Armstrong. Lugo’s trouble with left-handed batters also gives Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch favorable matchups.
Clay Holmes will be limited in his return, so Chicago may need plenty of work from its relievers. I’m comfortable with that because the Cubs’ bullpen has been much more effective than Kansas City’s. I’ll accept the favorite’s price because Chicago has the advantage at the plate and after the starters leave. I’m taking the Cubs to win.
The full analysis
Saturday night at Kauffman Stadium, with the Cubs chasing a sixth straight win and Kansas City trying to stop the slide. Chicago took the opener 6-4, and I’m backing the better club to finish the job again.
Seth Lugo’s command has become unreliable, and his 5.33 xERA suggests the 4.41 ERA may actually flatter him. That’s dangerous against a deep Cubs lineup featuring a scorching Pete Crow-Armstrong, while Lugo’s struggles against left-handed hitters create favorable spots for Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch.
Clay Holmes is returning on a pitch count, so Chicago may need four or more innings from the bullpen. I’m comfortable with that trade: the Cubs’ current relief corps owns a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, compared with Kansas City’s 5.09 and 1.59. I’ll pay the -148 for Chicago’s advantages at the plate and after the starters leave: Cubs moneyline.
Props on this game
3Clay HolmesUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-172
WActual 12
Holmes is making his first major-league appearance since May 15 and will be on a pitch count following the fractured fibula. He must work into the sixth inning to beat this number, while even five complete innings cashes the under.
Chicago can afford to protect him because its current bullpen carries a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. With at least four relief innings anticipated, I’m betting Holmes is removed before recording his 16th out.
Seth LugoOVER 1.5 Pitcher Walks Pitcher Walks-182
LActual 1
Lugo has issued at least two walks in seven of his last eight starts, including every start in his current six-game sample. His latest outing produced five walks in five innings, continuing a command problem that has followed him into his Royals debut.
Chicago averages 4.29 walks per game and has enough patient hitters to make Lugo work throughout the order. The price is heavy, but two walks remains a reachable number against this lineup: over 1.5.
Pete Crow-ArmstrongOVER 0.5 Home Runs Home Runs+460
LActual 0
Pete Crow-Armstrong is seeing the ball too well for me to pass at +460. He has five homers over his last 15 games, and his recent contact includes a 93.9 mph average exit velocity with three barrels on 17 balls in play.
Seth Lugo is allowing a .480 xwOBA on his sinker and a .405 mark on his four-seamer, two pitches Crow-Armstrong can drive when they leak into the hitting zone. Lugo has also been vulnerable to left-handed bats, allowing an .800 OPS and seven homers in 321 at-bats. Kauffman Stadium lowers the home-run expectation, but this price is long enough to compensate: Crow-Armstrong over 0.5 home runs.
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