Dodgers at Diamondbacks
O/U 9 · RL Dodgers -1.5
Dodgers -1.5-111
CONF 58%
LLostFinal 3-4
The read
Friday night under the closed roof at Chase Field, the Dodgers come in looking to end a long losing streak with a lineup capable of doing it in a big way. Los Angeles is rested, while Arizona is finishing a demanding stretch.
I give Roki Sasaki the edge on the mound. He has been much tougher to score against lately, is missing more bats, and looks like he has truly turned a corner. Merrill Kelly has struggled badly, especially at Chase Field, and hitters have been making damaging contact against him. That is a tough matchup against Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker, and the rest of this Dodgers lineup.
The cost kept me from simply betting the Dodgers to win, so I’m taking them to win by at least two runs. Arizona’s relief pitching is the biggest danger to that margin, which means Los Angeles needs to get to Kelly early and give Sasaki some breathing room. I’m betting the Dodgers break through early, end the skid, and win comfortably.
The full analysis
Roki Sasaki gives me the starting-pitching edge. He has allowed only three earned runs with 21 strikeouts over his last 18 innings, and his rising whiff rates suggest the improvement is real. Merrill Kelly owns a 5.04 ERA, a 6.33 mark at Chase Field and damaging contact metrics; that is a rough assignment against Ohtani, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker and the rest of this Dodgers order.
The price pushed me away from the Dodgers moneyline and onto the run line. Arizona’s bullpen is the main threat to the margin, so Los Angeles needs to do its damage against Kelly and give Sasaki room to work. I’m betting the Dodgers break through early and snap the skid with a multi-run win: Dodgers -1.5 at -111.
Props on this game
2Shohei OhtaniOVER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-118
LActual 0
Merrill Kelly has surrendered a staggering .885 OPS and 15 home runs to left-handed hitters this season. Now he has to face Shohei Ohtani, who is batting .417 over his last seven days and just launched two homers on Wednesday in Chicago. Kelly is giving up barrels at an alarming 13.2 percent clip, and Ohtani is perfectly positioned to punish that kind of contact profile under the roof in Phoenix.
Merrill KellyOVER 2.5 Pitcher Earned Runs Pitcher Earned Runs-158
LActual 1
The Dodgers arrive in the desert desperate to snap a six-game losing streak, and Kelly is exactly the pitcher they want to see. He owns a 6.33 ERA at Chase Field, and his overall expected ERA sits north of seven. With the sheer volume of hard contact Kelly allows, the loaded top half of this Los Angeles order is going to push across at least three runs before his night is over.
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