Mets at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Mets ML +120
- Published odds
- +120
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 6-4
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Friday night in Pittsburgh, the Mets come in after winning three straight, while the Pirates return home looking for answers after a tough road trip. I’m taking New York to keep rolling.
I like the Mets’ lineup in this matchup. Carmen Mlodzinski is making his first start since May after pitching out of the bullpen, and New York can load up with left-handed hitters, who have given him more trouble. Carson Benge and Francisco Lindor are hitting the ball hard, while Jared Young and Luis Torrens make the lineup deeper after the Mets scored plenty of runs in their sweep of Cleveland.
Zac Thornton could be due for a step backward, but Pittsburgh has scored only two runs in each of its past three games and is missing several important hitters. These teams are more evenly matched than their records show, and I’m getting a better payout on the team with the hotter offense. I’m taking the Mets to win.
The full analysis
Friday night at PNC Park, with the Mets rolling into Pittsburgh on a three-game winning streak while the Pirates return home searching for answers after a rough road trip. I’m taking New York to keep the momentum going.
The matchup points toward the Mets’ lineup. Carmen Mlodzinski is making his first start since May after working in relief, and New York can stack left-handed bats against the side that has given him more trouble. Carson Benge and Francisco Lindor are driving the ball, while Jared Young and Luis Torrens add depth to a lineup that just produced 25 runs during its Cleveland sweep.
Zac Thornton carries some regression risk, but Pittsburgh has scored exactly two runs in three straight games and is missing several important bats. These teams are closer than the records suggest, and the hotter offense is getting plus money. My card is Mets moneyline at +120.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
PLATOON EDGE
Esmerlyn Valdez (bats R) gets a LHP from the 4th spot
1.238Esmerlyn Valdez's vs. Left line (1.238 OPS, 52 AB) sits well above his .813 mark the other way (101 AB). Tonight's starter Zac Thornton throws LHP, the hand he hits best.
COOLING OFF
Esmerlyn Valdez: .571 OPS in L15 — draws LHP Zac Thornton
.571Esmerlyn Valdez's .571 OPS over the last 15 days (40 PA) trails his .959 season mark, down 0.388. Tonight he draws LHP Zac Thornton — his stronger side: a 1.238 OPS vs LHP across 52 AB.
HR THREAT
Francisco Lindor
+525Gary's Take Lindor's locked in right now — four homers and twelve RBI over his last fifteen games, and he went deep again just last night in Cleveland. He's a switch hitter, so tonight he's swinging from the left side against Mlodzinski, and that's exactly where Mlodzinski has been hittable all year — a near-.760 OPS and six homers allowed to lefty bats compared to a sub-.600 OPS and a single homer against righties.
Carson Benge
+800Gary's Take Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better than Benge — nine hits in his last twenty-six at-bats, two home runs, and a slugging percentage over 1.000 across his last seven games. He's a lefty bat hitting cleanup, and Mlodzinski's split says the same thing it says for Lindor: this is a pitcher who's had real trouble with left-handed power this season.
FIRST INNING
PIT have gone quiet in the 1st: runs in 1 of their last 10
1/10Mlodzinski's been lockdown in the first inning all year, a .138 average against backing up that 2.00 ERA, so the Mets aren't walking into a friendly look. Thornton's the opposite case entirely — a 7.50 ERA and .370 average against that early — which means the real action tonight is more likely to come once Pittsburgh gets a set of eyes on him in the first.
RUNNING GAME
Pittsburgh Pirates like to run — Luis Torrens (39% caught) is the wrong catcher to test
39% CSPittsburgh Pirates attempt 1 steals a game, but Luis Torrens has cut down 15 of 38 runners (39%). Someone is getting thrown out tonight.
STREAK
NYM games have gone UNDER 6 straight
U6Six straight unders and the books still haven't backed off — tonight's total actually climbs to 8.25, the richest ask of the whole run. That's the real test: a number sitting further above the recent scoring pace than at any point in this stretch, against Pittsburgh.
TEAM RECORD
Pirates 7-1 in Carmen Mlodzinski's last 8 starts
7-1Seven wins in eight Mlodzinski starts is about as close to automatic as a rotation turn gets, and a mark like that says as much about how comfortable this team plays behind him as it does about his own stuff. Pittsburgh brings that trust into a home game tonight against the Mets.
REGRESSION
Zac Thornton: 2.88 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
4.83A 2.88 ERA with contact quality that grades out near 4.83 is a gap pushing two full runs — Thornton's been getting outs his underlying stuff hasn't necessarily earned. Doesn't mean it unwinds tonight against the Mets, but that's a number living on borrowed time.
Carmen Mlodzinski: 3.15 ERA vs 4.83 xERA
4.83Even with that 7-1 team record behind him, Mlodzinski's actual contact numbers say he's been getting away with more than his ERA lets on — close to a run and two-thirds of separation is real. The record's earned, but the process underneath it is shakier than the win total suggests.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored August 7, 2026 at 5:12 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, betrivers, caesars, draftkings, betmgm, fanatics.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
6- GARY'S PICKCARMEN MLODZINSKIPITCHER OUTS UNDER 12.5
Carmen Mlodzinski hasn't made a start since May 25, working out of the bullpen for the last two months. Now he's being pressed into a spot start because Mitch Keller hit the injured list. Pitchers transitioning from a short-relief role aren't stretched out to suddenly throw 75 pitches, making 13 outs a massive ask. Add in the heavy threat of rain and thunderstorms in Pittsburgh tonight that could cause a delay and end a starter's night early, and this under is the most logical play on the board.
- GARY'S PICKCARSON BENGETOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
The rookie is absolutely locked in right now. Benge just ripped through Cleveland, homering on Tuesday and Wednesday before adding an RBI triple on Thursday. Tonight he gets a spot-starter in Mlodzinski who has struggled with left-handed bats, allowing a .755 OPS and six of his seven total home runs to lefties this year. With the way Benge is swinging it and the favorable platoon advantage, getting this kind of plus money for him to find a gap or notch a couple hits is tremendous value.
- THE LONG SHOTFRANCISCO LINDORHR OVER 0.5
Lindor's locked in right now — four homers and twelve RBI over his last fifteen games, and he went deep again just last night in Cleveland. He's a switch hitter, so tonight he's swinging from the left side against Mlodzinski, and that's exactly where Mlodzinski has been hittable all year — a near-.760 OPS and six homers allowed to lefty bats compared to a sub-.600 OPS and a single homer against righties. Everything about this matchup plays into a strength he's already showing every night. I'm comfortable leaning on him here.
- THE LONG SHOTCARSON BENGEHR OVER 0.5
Nobody in this lineup is swinging it better than Benge — nine hits in his last twenty-six at-bats, two home runs, and a slugging percentage over 1.000 across his last seven games. He's a lefty bat hitting cleanup, and Mlodzinski's split says the same thing it says for Lindor: this is a pitcher who's had real trouble with left-handed power this season. Benge is squaring the ball up hard and not missing much when he swings it. At this price, a piece of that form is worth the play.
- THE LONG SHOTBRETT BATYHR OVER 0.5
Baty's sample is thinner than the bats ahead of him in this order, but the shape of it is the same — a home run in each of his recent stretches and hard contact whenever he connects. He's another lefty bat facing a pitcher who's given up six homers to left-handed hitters against just one to righties, so the matchup is doing him a favor even if his spot in the order — seventh — isn't, since he won't see as many pitches as Benge or Lindor. Priced long enough that I don't need it often.
- THE LONG SHOTMARCUS SEMIENHR OVER 0.5
Semien's the hottest name on this board by recent rate — three homers in his last fifteen games, including one just last night — but he bats right-handed, and that's the side Mlodzinski has actually handled well this year, a sub-.600 OPS and only one home run allowed to righties all season. That's a real strike against this one next to the lefties in the same lineup, and it's why I'm not leaning on it as hard. But a hitter running this hot at a price this long is still worth a small piece, even against the tougher side of the matchup.
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