Pirates at Brewers
O/U 7.5 · RL Brewers -2.5
Brewers ML-123
CONF 62%
WCashedFinal 2-5
The read
Getaway day in Milwaukee, roof and sunshine, and a first-place club trying to close out the series. The Brewers have beaten Pittsburgh two nights in a row by the same score, and today they give the ball to Dustin May for his first start in a Milwaukee uniform. The Pirates are wrapping up the last game of a long road trip, playing an afternoon game right after a night game, with a lineup that hasn't scored much in two weeks.
Start with the pitcher the Pirates are sending out. Braxton Ashcraft has been the feel-good story of their season — big fastball, a curveball hitters miss a ton — but he's been getting knocked around lately. He gave up five runs in five innings to this same Milwaukee team a month ago, he's given up a pile of home runs to left-handed hitters this year, and the Brewers run lefties up and down the lineup — Turang, Mitchell, Yelich, Hamilton — in a park that tilts a little toward the hitters. His last outing was clean but short. Before that came a stretch where his fastball sat over too much of the plate.
The other side of the ball is where Pittsburgh runs out of answers. They've barely scratched out three runs a game over their last ten, Horwitz is stuck in a bad stretch, Reynolds hasn't hit the ball hard in two weeks, and Endy Rodríguez is basically carrying the offense alone. May is a question mark in his first start here, and Milwaukee's late-inning relievers have been used on back-to-back days, and yes, the Brewers' own lineup is a little short today. But this is the best home team in baseball against a club that's been outscored all trip, and at a price barely above a coin flip I'll take the better team and let them finish the job. Brewers moneyline.
The full analysis
Getaway day at American Family Field, the roof and the sun and a first-place club trying to finish what it started. Milwaukee has won two straight over Pittsburgh by identical 4-2 scores, and today the Brewers hand the ball to Dustin May for his first turn in their uniform. The Pirates are on the eighth and final game of a road trip, playing a day game on the heels of a night game, with a lineup that hasn't put much on the board in two weeks.
Start with the arm the Pirates have to solve. Braxton Ashcraft has been the story of Pittsburgh's season and he throws 97 with a curveball hitters swing through better than a third of the time, but he's been getting hit since the calendar turned. He gave up five earned in five innings to this same club a month ago, he's surrendered thirteen home runs to left-handed bats this year, and Milwaukee stacks lefties through the order — Turang, Mitchell, Yelich, Hamilton — in a yard that plays a touch to the hitter. His last time out was clean and short. Before that came a run of starts where the fastball caught too much plate.
The other direction is where the Pirates run out of answers. They're averaging 3.3 runs over their last ten, Horwitz is buried in a slump, Reynolds hasn't found a barrel in two weeks, and Endy Rodríguez is essentially carrying the offense by himself. May is an unknown in his debut and the back of Milwaukee's bullpen has been asked to work on consecutive days, and I'll grant that Milwaukee's own lineup is thinner today than it has been. But this is the best record in baseball at home against a club that's been outscored all trip, and at a shade over even money I'll take the better team and let them close it out. Brewers moneyline.
Props on this game
2Endy RodriguezOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-157
Not yet graded
Rodríguez is the one Pirates bat that's looked dangerous in any light the last two weeks — two homers and three RBIs in his last seven games, and in this series alone he's five for ten with two more home runs. He's a switch-hitter, so he sees Dustin May from the left side tonight, and May has allowed a .750 OPS and five home runs to lefties this year against a much tamer .585 mark from righties. May is walking into a brand new clubhouse for his first start in a Brewers uniform, and the hottest hitter on the other side happens to be swinging from the side that's given him trouble all season. I want Rodríguez to keep doing what he's been doing.
Christian YelichOVER 0.5 Hits Hits-155
Not yet graded
Yelich has been cold the last two weeks, .200 over his last fifteen with just one extra-base knock, and it would be easy to read that as a fade. But this is a day game, and Yelich in day games this season is a different hitter — near .300 with an OPS pushing .900 over a hundred-plus at-bats, not a small sample. And the pitcher across from him is Braxton Ashcraft, who has been excellent against right-handed bats and something close to batting practice for lefties — thirteen home runs allowed to left-handed hitters this year against four to righties, a .761 OPS. Yelich is a lefty who sees the ball well under the sun, and one knock is what I need against an arm that's struggled with hitters standing on his side of the plate all year.
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