Angels at Orioles
O/U 5.5 · RL Orioles -2.5
Orioles -1.5+106
CONF 63%
LLostFinal 4-1
The read
Noon baseball at Camden Yards, hot and muggy with the wind blowing out toward center field, and the Orioles come out of a trade deadline that was supposed to sink them with a chance to sweep. Two nights, two wins, and Baltimore is right on the edge of a playoff spot nobody thought they'd sniff. The Angels fly home tonight either way. But first they have to hand the ball to Ryan Johnson.
That's the bet. Johnson has been getting torched all year, and it isn't bad luck — his stuff is just gone. Everything he throws is slower than it was a year ago, and the sinker he leans on most is getting crushed, with hitters barely ever swinging through it. Lefties, righties, doesn't matter — they're all doing damage. He hasn't made it through five innings in four of his last six starts, which means the middle of this game belongs to an Angels bullpen that traded away Zeferjahn, lost Soriano at the deadline, put Bachman on the injured list this week, and burned Anderson, Joyce and Fermin in last night's loss. I don't see a version of this afternoon where Los Angeles holds the Orioles down.
And the Angels still have to score, which they haven't been doing — barely a run or two a night for five straight games, Trout playing through a knee that keeps bothering him, and the bottom of that lineup making outs for two weeks running. Brandon Young's slider is close to unhittable, and he's given up almost nothing over his last few starts. I'll say the honest part out loud: Baltimore is resting some regulars on getaway day and their best relievers have all pitched two days in a row, and a one-run game is exactly how a favorite like this loses. That's why I'm not paying a bigger price. But I'm getting a nice payout to say the only real starting pitcher in this ballpark wins by a couple. Take the Orioles to win by two or more.
The full analysis
Noon baseball at Camden Yards, 88 degrees and the wind pushing out to center, and the Orioles come out of a deadline that was supposed to bury them with a chance to sweep. Two nights, two wins, and Baltimore is a half-game off a wild card spot they had no business being near. The Angels fly out tonight either way. But first they have to hand the ball to Ryan Johnson.
That's the bet. Johnson is carrying a 7.63 ERA and it isn't bad luck dressed up as a number — the stuff has left him. Every pitch in the bag is down two-plus miles an hour from a year ago, and the sinker he leans on a quarter of the time is getting hit .411 with a whiff rate you could count on one hand. Hitters from both sides of the plate are slugging .860-plus against him. He hasn't finished five innings in four of his last six turns, which means the middle of this game belongs to an Angels bullpen that shipped out Zeferjahn, lost Soriano at the deadline, put Bachman on the shelf this week, and emptied Anderson, Joyce and Fermin into last night's loss. There is no version of this afternoon where Los Angeles keeps the Orioles under four unless the baseball gods take the day off.
And the Angels have to answer. They've scored one, two, three, one and two in their last five, Trout is playing through a knee that hasn't stopped barking, and the bottom of that order has been an automatic out for two weeks. Brandon Young throws a slider hitters miss half the time they swing at it; he's given up six earned in his last nineteen innings. I'll say the honest part out loud — Baltimore is resting bats on getaway day and their high-leverage arms have all worked back-to-back, and a 3-2 game is exactly how favorites like this get beat. That's why I'm not laying a bigger price. But I'm getting plus money to say the only real starting pitcher in the ballpark wins by two. Take the Orioles at -1.5.
Props on this game
2Zach NetoUNDER 1.5 Total Bases Total Bases-176
LActual 5
Neto is hitting .146 over his last fifteen games, and the underlying numbers explain why — he's whiffing on 44 percent of his swings and chasing pitches out of the zone 45 percent of the time recently. That's not bad luck, that's a hitter who's lost the strike zone. He's running into Brandon Young, who's been the best pitcher in this series by a wide margin — 2.84 ERA and eighteen strikeouts over his last three starts — and who's been generating more swing and miss with every outing. This is a short-price lay, but Neto chasing everything against a pitcher who punishes chasers is as clean a fade as this board offers.
Ryan JohnsonUNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs+134
WActual 14
Johnson hasn't gotten through five innings in either of his last two starts — 4.1 against Milwaukee, 3.1 against the Giants — and it's not bad luck, it's diminished stuff. Every pitch in his arsenal is sitting two-plus miles an hour below where it was a year ago, the sinker he throws a quarter of the time is getting hit .411, and the walks have crept up right along with the hits.
This Orioles lineup just strung together back-to-back multi-homer wins and it's noon at Camden with the wind blowing out and the temperature near 90. There's no incentive for anybody to let him work through trouble in a getaway-day matinee, and his own recent track record says he won't get the chance to.
Fifteen outs is the ask — he hasn't cleared it in two straight tries.
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