MLB · Sun, Aug 2 · 1:37 PM

Cardinals at Blue Jays

O/U 9 · RL Blue Jays -1.5

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Blue Jays· +113

Sunday matinee under a closed roof at Rogers Centre, deadline clock ticking toward Monday evening, and Toronto is one win from a broom against a Cardinals club that hasn't scored more than a run since it landed in Canada. Everything on the surface says lay the price. That's exactly why I'm on the other side of it. Start with what moved. At five this morning Toronto was a -114 favorite; by the time lineups posted they were -136. Nothing happened in those hours that makes this team twenty-two cents better — Guerrero's been in the box all series, the roof was always closing, and the only real development was confirmation that Max Scherzer is taking the ball. Scherzer has thrown twenty-four and two-thirds innings across seven starts this season, and he's been handled worse in this building than anywhere else on the map. Last time out he was pulled at 2.2 innings coming off a seven-week absence. Whatever he has today, it is not length. Toronto ran four relievers out there yesterday, Hoffman has now worked back-to-back days, and that same group has to cover five or six innings with a flight to Houston waiting. Liberatore is no one's idea of a stopper, but he's the arm in this game that has actually been going every fifth day, and St. Louis stacks four left-handed bats into this order against a right-hander who has been punished by lefties all year. Understand the risk plainly: if Toronto is piggybacking Bieber behind him for showcase innings the day before the deadline, this reads very differently, and the Cardinals have put up two runs in two days, so nobody should confuse this with a bet on that offense waking up. I'm not buying the team. I'm buying the number. A club priced at +104 this morning is +113 now because it looks dead, and I'll take the longer number with the steadier starter and a back end that hasn't worked since Thursday.

The pick & result

Published pick: Cardinals ML +113
Published odds: +113
Result: Won
Final score: 5-1

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Sunday afternoon game with the roof shut in Toronto, the trade deadline sitting there ticking down to Monday night, and the Blue Jays are one win away from sweeping a Cardinals team that hasn't put up more than a single run since it crossed the border. Everything you see at a glance tells you to just pay up and take Toronto. That's the exact reason I'm going the other way.

Look at how the price moved. Early this morning Toronto was barely favored, and by the time the lineups came out you had to pay a lot more for them. Nothing happened in those few hours to make this team that much better. Guerrero's been playing all series, the roof was always going to be closed, and the only real news was confirmation that Max Scherzer is starting. Scherzer has barely pitched this year — a handful of starts and not many innings in them — and he's been hit harder in this ballpark than anywhere else. His last time out they yanked him before he got through the third, coming off a seven-week layoff. Whatever he's got today, it isn't going deep. Toronto already burned through four relievers yesterday, Hoffman has pitched two days in a row, and that same tired group has to cover most of this game with a flight to Houston waiting on them.

Liberatore isn't anybody's ace, but he's the one starter here who's actually been taking his regular turn, and St. Louis is putting four lefty hitters in the lineup against a righty who's been getting beat up by lefties all season long. Here's the honest risk: if Toronto is lining up Bieber to follow Scherzer as a showcase the day before the deadline, this whole thing looks different. And the Cardinals have scored two runs in two days, so don't mistake this for me betting on their offense to come alive. I'm not buying the team. I'm buying the price. A club you could've had cheaper this morning is even cheaper now purely because it looks dead in the water, and I'll happily take the better payout with the more reliable starter and a bullpen that hasn't thrown since Thursday.

The full analysis

Start with what moved. At five this morning Toronto was a -114 favorite; by the time lineups posted they were -136. Nothing happened in those hours that makes this team twenty-two cents better — Guerrero's been in the box all series, the roof was always closing, and the only real development was confirmation that Max Scherzer is taking the ball. Scherzer has thrown twenty-four and two-thirds innings across seven starts this season, and he's been handled worse in this building than anywhere else on the map. Last time out he was pulled at 2.2 innings coming off a seven-week absence. Whatever he has today, it is not length. Toronto ran four relievers out there yesterday, Hoffman has now worked back-to-back days, and that same group has to cover five or six innings with a flight to Houston waiting.

Liberatore is no one's idea of a stopper, but he's the arm in this game that has actually been going every fifth day, and St. Louis stacks four left-handed bats into this order against a right-hander who has been punished by lefties all year. Understand the risk plainly: if Toronto is piggybacking Bieber behind him for showcase innings the day before the deadline, this reads very differently, and the Cardinals have put up two runs in two days, so nobody should confuse this with a bet on that offense waking up. I'm not buying the team. I'm buying the number. A club priced at +104 this morning is +113 now because it looks dead, and I'll take the longer number with the steadier starter and a back end that hasn't worked since Thursday.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

PLATOON EDGE

Alec Burleson (bats L) hits 3rd against Max Scherzer (RHP)
.942
Burleson against right-handers is a completely different hitter than Burleson against lefties: .942 OPS versus .505. Scherzer throws right-handed and Burleson bats third tonight, so the good version of him is the one in the box.
Lars Nootbaar (bats L) gets a RHP from the 1st spot
.741
Lars Nootbaar's vs. Right line (.741 OPS, 123 AB) sits well above his .483 mark the other way (30 AB). Tonight's starter Max Scherzer throws RHP, the hand he hits best.

COOLING OFF

Jordan Walker: .540 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer
.540
Walker is scuffling, .540 OPS over his last 15 against an .835 season mark, and tonight he technically draws Scherzer on his tougher side. That tougher side is still an .811 OPS against right-handers over 316 at-bats, so this isn't a matchup that buries him.
Ivan Herrera: .596 OPS in L15 — draws RHP Max Scherzer
.596
Ivan Herrera's .596 OPS over the last 15 days (60 PA) trails his .740 season mark, down 0.144. Tonight he draws RHP Max Scherzer — his weaker side: a .709 OPS vs RHP across 292 AB.

REGRESSION

Max Scherzer: 9.49 ERA vs 6.16 xERA
6.16
That gap is mostly bad luck, not a mirage — his hard-contact numbers are ordinary. But a 1.82 WHIP and barely six strikeouts a game leaves no margin once runners get on, so even a better version of him tonight is still walking a tightrope.
Ernie Clement: .292 AVG vs .252 xBA
.252
Clement is hitting .292 against a .252 expected average over 438 plate appearances, with wOBA running ahead of xwOBA to match. That's a full season of outperforming his contact quality, not a short hot streak.

CLOSER WATCH

Riley O'Brien
26 SV
Riley O'Brien owns the ninth for the Cardinals — 26 saves this season (next closest: George Soriano with 2).
Louis Varland
24 SV
Louis Varland owns the ninth for the Blue Jays — 24 saves this season (next closest: Jeff Hoffman with 5).

FANTASY PICKUPS

Alec Burleson
.807 OPS
Pickup vs Max Scherzer (6.12 xERA) — .807 OPS, bats 3rd.

CUT LIST

Max Scherzer
6.16 xERA
Starts tonight for TOR — 6.16 xERA behind a 9.49 ERA.
Masyn Winn
0.645 OPS
Still hitting 5th for STL — 0.645 OPS, 0.243 AVG from the 5-hole.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 2, 2026 at 12:09 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, caesars, betmgm, betrivers, fanatics.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
GEORGE SPRINGERTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBToronto Blue Jays· +137
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Springer's locked in right now — pushing a .950 OPS over his last fifteen games with real power showing up in the box score, and the contact backs it up. He's squaring the ball up hard and consistently, not riding a few lucky bloopers. The guy on the mound is walking into this one banged up. Liberatore's allowed seventeen hits combined in his last two starts, and he's letting hard contact through at a worse rate than the pitcher on the other side tonight. A hitter seeing the ball this well against a starter bleeding contact quality is exactly the spot where one good swing turns into extra bases. Plus money for a guy performing like this is a number worth taking.
George Springer
Total Bases over 1.5
+137 · CASHED · ACTUAL 3
Toronto Blue Jays
Springer's locked in right now — pushing a .950 OPS over his last fifteen games with real power showing up in the box score, and the contact backs it up. He's squaring the ball up hard and consistently, not riding a few lucky bloopers.
The guy on the mound is walking into this one banged up. Liberatore's allowed seventeen hits combined in his last two starts, and he's letting hard contact through at a worse rate than the pitcher on the other side tonight. A hitter seeing the ball this well against a starter bleeding contact quality is exactly the spot where one good swing turns into extra bases. Plus money for a guy performing like this is a number worth taking.
GARY'S PICK
ALEC BURLESONHITS OVER 1.5
MLBSt. Louis Cardinals· +195
LOST · ACTUAL 1
Burleson's been red hot for two weeks running, hitting well over .350 with an OPS pushing .830 over his last fifteen games, and that's across a deep enough sample to trust it. He's a lefty stepping into a matchup where left-handed hitters have made Scherzer look every bit his age this year — a thousand-plus OPS and a home run every dozen at-bats or so. Given where Scherzer's workload has been trending, Burleson is likely to see him more than once before a hook, and if the bullpen has to cover extra innings behind a starter who hasn't gone deep all season, that just means more at-bats for a St. Louis order that's finally starting to swing it well. Two hits is a real ask, but the form and the matchup point the same direction, and the price pays well for taking that stance.
Alec Burleson
Hits over 1.5
+195 · LOST · ACTUAL 1
St. Louis Cardinals
Burleson's been red hot for two weeks running, hitting well over .350 with an OPS pushing .830 over his last fifteen games, and that's across a deep enough sample to trust it. He's a lefty stepping into a matchup where left-handed hitters have made Scherzer look every bit his age this year — a thousand-plus OPS and a home run every dozen at-bats or so.
Given where Scherzer's workload has been trending, Burleson is likely to see him more than once before a hook, and if the bullpen has to cover extra innings behind a starter who hasn't gone deep all season, that just means more at-bats for a St. Louis order that's finally starting to swing it well. Two hits is a real ask, but the form and the matchup point the same direction, and the price pays well for taking that stance.

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